NorthHillsWx

Flip to a colder pattern continues to be well-advertised. As many have said, especially more than a week out, I would not focus on storm track. Just the presence of cold air and some southern stream energy means the players have left the locker room after a long weather delay (or more than 2 week gap between the semi's and the Championship) and are on the field. Now it's time to play ball. Hopefully we come out on top, like we ALL hope Clemson wins it's 3rd title in 4 years, except in this case the Title victory is something that whitens the ground and changes the mood on this board for the remainder of the season. Spot the ball!

Love chasing 10 day cooldowns on the models, knowing we are 100% going to burn 10 more days of peak climo to get there, while also knowing that it will not be as cold as modeled AND the cold will definitely be delayed is a wonderful feeling! IF everything works out as modeled, we will have to burn 10 more days of peak Climo after burning the last month plus... Love winter in the South!

Euro does not have the cold. At all lol.

One thing we can bank on with Op Models on modeled cold- it will be more progressive than shown this far out

6z GFS was a good run haha. I'd take that. Key point is all signs are pointing (finally) to a relaxing of the western trough that allows a better storm track and more opportunity for storms to tap the cold air available. I hate burning such vast stretches of winter but there may be light at the end of the tunnel. This has been consistently modeled to some degree for days now. Not just a run in fantasy land.

How could we fail??

31 last night

Not sure but the one on TT definitely factored in a lot of mixed precip as snow for the I-85 corridor south. The weatherbell one being more believable lol. Not going to lie, it just feels good seeing something, anything on the models even in LALA land smh

Well, here's a first for me. Pulled a tick off my dog. January 6th... If that's not telling towards the weather we've had this "winter", I don't know what is

The 17th-18th period looks interesting at least. Some cold air and southern energy playing around. At this stage, I'd say suppression is a good thing. With al the doom and gloom (me included) this is at least something to look at.

Wouldn't mind the 0.24 to verify... My yard is soup from the past couple weeks and 1.5"+ from Friday/Saturday

Can't decide what is more comical today, a low near 70 on December 30th or Ohio State fans complaining about officiating after blowing a 16-0 lead...

One word for the upcoming/current pattern: Bleak When storms are showing in the beginning of January and the rain/snow line is 200 miles into Canada, our chances don't look great...

I consider it a fast-developing coastal storm with little/no blocking that is extremely transient. The type where the cold usually comes in to late or at the very end.

If the piece of energy that gets left behind from the 1/3-4 system hooks up with any northern stream energy, the on 1/5 system may have a chance at 1) heading further north than shown 2) pulling down the limited cold air more efficiently 3) spread some precip inland. However, with no blocking HP it would be a coastal cutter at best and a very transient system. We know we don't do well with transient systems without cold air already entrenched. At best this would be a rain system but for now, just another dry, average day...

I know. It has a push of cold and a signal for at least a southern stream system of some sort but... it'd take perfect timing and low placement and even then with the cold coming not having a sustained artic source, it'd be (my favorite word for this area) marginal. Punting it, waiting till the week of the 13th!

It's OUR time! Bank on it. Fabulous February will save us!

The lack of any sustained cold in ANY model is much more concerning than lack of storms showing. No COLD = no CHANCE, even if a storm pops up. Just bleak right now. And it being north of 60 next few days aint helping my mood! I remember in the beginning December we were talking about "at least there's no torch showing." Well, no torch showing means it'll definitely torch. 67 in Elkins is INSANE. 60+ here, unfortunately, is becoming normal.... Hate to say it, but I'm about ready to stick a fork in this winter. February and March snows aren't all that good anyway. Sun angle really screws with them. Were in the prime climo and sun angle season right now and I BARELY see lows below freezing, lows!, for the next 10+ days... Buckle up, the sanitarium is going to be fun!

Guess we punt peak climo and hope for a bottom of the 9th, 2 strikes miracle! Never fails in the South!

No wind, minimal lightning, and 30 min of decent rain in North Hills.Yay. Saw more wind this afternoon when it got sunny and some winds mixed to the surface

Just like that the clouds parted and the sun is out in full in the Raleigh area. Did not expect the clouds to abate this quickly or entirely. Not great...

No sun in the Triangle area yet, but extremely gusty south winds. Warm, imagine if we see some breaks we could shoot into the 80's fairly rapidly. Some concerning severe parameters especially west and north of my location. Will be interesting to see if some of the sunshine others are noting lead to increased instability and maximize the storm potential during peak heating hours.

I've said it before, I'll say it again: Rarely do nighttime (Especially 9PM-12AM) events live up to hype. I think Triad through western VA will have a nasty/severe squall line but RARELY do these things hold together from a severe perspective east of that much after sundown. I expect no different today, despite the enhanced risk area.

Saw this exact scenario on the 3k Nam for tomorrow, discrete cells then an organized line. First potential severe threat in a while.

Purely speculation but this storm feels like a Matthew track to me. I've been saying that since the first member started advertising the northward bend yesterday morning. If it slows down, it is going north. That's just what these things do. And I'm supposed to be in Nags Head all week so I KNOW its coming north haha