NorthHillsWx

I'm surprised no one mentioned the severe weather from Monday. Drove through the Southwestern side of Raleigh (Centennial Campus Area) and there was a good amount of tree damage (Leaves, branches, and full trees blown down). Seemed like there were several storms of this magnitude around that afternoon so I'd expect similar damage. We had nearly 20k outages that afternoon too and many of our crews worked into the night to get power back on.

Most short-range modelling seems to have backed off on storm chances today from Triangle south. Still seems the storms that do fire will have the potential to be strong, especially with the extreme heat today. We will have to watch the 3-5:00 timeframe closely today to see where storms do fire on the southern outflow from the convection moving through VA and also where localized enhancement takes place. Me thinks a few good storms are possible, though widespread aerial coverage seems lackluster

One thing I’ve loved tracking the last few days is the pattern of these afternoon storms. With very weak steering currents they don’t really move so much as sit, rain out, then re-develop in a general direction on their own outflow boundary. Very few organized clusters but a ton of outflow boundaries makes for a busy radar but VERY inconsistent rain and the appearance of “skipping” over some places. Looks to be the case Thursday but I’ve noticed some models (gfs especially) seem to be advertising some increased coverage.