NorthHillsWx

Since NCEP stopped automated posting of GOES products (Himawari products are still being posted at current time) to the SSD server, weathernerds.org began to use that color scheme as an option for measuring cloudtop temperatures. And yes, I agree, AVN a valuable tool if not a more scathing one for historical comparison. Anyway, my eyes and empirical obs in general are better suited for 40 years of AVN because that is what I am used too. Yep. I think it got brought up during Michael the appearance of storms today is more severe in some people's eyes due to the new IR images available. The AVN images are hard to beat though from a historical perspective, as you said.

Where do you find these classic IR images? That's more impressive to me than the new ones. Nostalgic but shows how powerful this storm is!

Holy Moly! Lorenzo has become the beast from the East! Though he won't attain the high-end winds of Dorian this is a sight to behold! A monster cane with very little threat to land, a tracking dream! Been explosive development though he's probably about maxed out. Can't take my eyes off that core. Man I would love to see a radar of that large core!

I can remember, vaguely, the sound of raindrops falling in my backyard. Now, think I see a higher likelihood of this board reporting dust devils or tumble weeds then a raindrop over the next 10 days

We've had some dry periods but this is definitely going to be the first chance at a full-blown aerial drought in quite some time here, unfortunately. Last few years being so wet made us spoiled in regards to being above average for precipitation. Thankfully it is in the autumn after the growing season for farmers but it is DRY. Warm again today but not as bad as yesterday. Currently 83. Bring on a real cold front please! Pretty easy to see the ridge placement on the GFS total precip map through the end of the run. Sheesh!

Well, was hoping for 40's this morning. Didn't get close. 55 low here (I think RDU got a few ticks lower). Very pleasant regardless! DRYYYYYYYYYYYYY

Hopefully a wet pattern starts soon. Not seeing much hope on the models. Keep checking back hoping for a change. Only good news is timing for duck season. Going into duck season it's going to be very little water (opposite of last year). Birds are going to have fewer places to go so hopefully my farm which has great beaver swamps that always hold water will have more birds as they will be less spread out and more prone to use continual sources of water, Looking at the positive of this!

Whew, today certainly became a fun day on the tropical front! Rapidly forming TS, New TD on it's way to becoming a hurricane, and Humberto growing and making it's push to a major while threatening Bermuda! Also plenty of development in the Eastern Pacific... It's like it's mid-September or something!

Just like that, NHC has designated a TD. Expected to become a storm shortly. Pretty interesting to watch the rapid organization over the last 12 hours. Big rain-maker for Texas

Ready for the ccoldown! A warmer than expected 91 imby! Per ususal

Looks like we have a TD on the Texas coast, per Houston radar. Not much time till it moves ashore which is pretty lucky as it is organizing rather quickly. If it was slightly further offshore I'd say a 2007 Humberto-like system could be in the cards, very similar organization and location

I'm surprised we're even that close to average in central NC. We did receive 1.5" from the hurricane but that feels like a century ago. Coupled with the high heat, we're in mid-summer form in terms of the yard browning out

One word sums up the upcoming and recent weather pattern quite nicely: Dry

Purely speculation but this storm feels like a Matthew track to me. I've been saying that since the first member started advertising the northward bend yesterday morning. If it slows down, it is going north. That's just what these things do. And I'm supposed to be in Nags Head all week so I KNOW its coming north haha

I hear ya! I had been in the same boat for awhile until yesterday saw one storm blow up right over my house and sit, dropping an inch of much, much needed rain, 30-35 mph gusts, and close ctg lightning. Had a good storm a week ago but not as much rain. Can't wait for the, gasp, 70's tomorrow! Hope to see a blossoming radar shortly and maybe a cool, light, drizzly rain type of day tomorrow

I haven't been enthused with this setup nearly as much as I was yesterday's. I thought the forecast yesterday way underdid the effect of heating and the MCAPE values were high. Same today but the forcing associated with the front arrives late and very rarely this time of year do nighttime storms reach severe limits, unless you get an MLS situation which this is not. Though dynamics appear most favorable in SE VA and NE NC and this lines up with high CAPE values in prime heating hours and highest shear values in this area as well, I expect a line of storms to progress from NW-SE through midnight. Isolated wind damage for sure but I doubt we see much outside the highlighted areas. That might be what the 3K nam is seeing in its latest run, the line falls apart once peak heating hours wane (though did you see the 6z? That had a significant line. I took that with a grain of salt given other modelling). Should be some good rains. We got an inch yesterday from the storms that developed after that awesome gravity wave cloud (I think that's what it was) moved through.

I'm surprised no one mentioned the severe weather from Monday. Drove through the Southwestern side of Raleigh (Centennial Campus Area) and there was a good amount of tree damage (Leaves, branches, and full trees blown down). Seemed like there were several storms of this magnitude around that afternoon so I'd expect similar damage. We had nearly 20k outages that afternoon too and many of our crews worked into the night to get power back on.

Most short-range modelling seems to have backed off on storm chances today from Triangle south. Still seems the storms that do fire will have the potential to be strong, especially with the extreme heat today. We will have to watch the 3-5:00 timeframe closely today to see where storms do fire on the southern outflow from the convection moving through VA and also where localized enhancement takes place. Me thinks a few good storms are possible, though widespread aerial coverage seems lackluster

One thing I’ve loved tracking the last few days is the pattern of these afternoon storms. With very weak steering currents they don’t really move so much as sit, rain out, then re-develop in a general direction on their own outflow boundary. Very few organized clusters but a ton of outflow boundaries makes for a busy radar but VERY inconsistent rain and the appearance of “skipping” over some places. Looks to be the case Thursday but I’ve noticed some models (gfs especially) seem to be advertising some increased coverage.