NorthHillsWx

Well, well, well, that walking into a wall of humidity feeling opening the door I had so hoped was gone for the year was back with a vengeance this morning in my neck of the woods! Maybe it seems worse as I had fully thought we were done with this type oppressive heat for the summer (why I get my hopes up in August in the south, I will never know). Oh well, looks like today is the peak of it. I think with strong moisture in low levels tomorrow and the front hanging around, cloud cover will certainly be impressive tomorrow and may be the saving grace for a repeat of today, though it will still be in the miserable range. Mid 80's in the forecast have been replaced with 90's through the period. In my experience with southeast weather during these summer patterns, sometimes it takes a tropical system to fully "break" the cycle and pull a front all the way through the area. Otherwise, looks like more of the same!

Most short-range modelling seems to have backed off on storm chances today from Triangle south. Still seems the storms that do fire will have the potential to be strong, especially with the extreme heat today. We will have to watch the 3-5:00 timeframe closely today to see where storms do fire on the southern outflow from the convection moving through VA and also where localized enhancement takes place. Me thinks a few good storms are possible, though widespread aerial coverage seems lackluster

Well, the "wet" period continued overnight. Received and additional 0.22" on top of the 0.16" from the storms earlier in the day for a daily total of 0.38." Really surprised storms were able to keep going overnight, with some strong ones in the Apex area. Seemed the convection earlier in the day had stabilized the atmosphere. Did not feel like it would rain again. I guess the earlier arrival of the first round allowed the full sunshine to generate enough instability that whatever feature that moved through was able to generate, maintain, and even strengthen convection across parts of central NC. Don't see that too often in these patterns overnight in this area. Some areas, my office in Garner included, seem to have really been dumped on overnight. Standing water everywhere

Finally got a gullywasher. 1.70" imby yesterday. .04 from the morning's showers and 1.66" from the 2 storms in the afternoon, followed by a long period of cool, light rain. Actually have puddles in the low spot in my backyard this morning

Picked up an additional .05" overnight. 1.02" for the day. Great start to August. Let's see if we can get an aerial rain, these summertime pop up patterns can be very unfair over short distances. My farm in Franklin county is DRYYYYY. Food plots are withering, really hope they get something to stay green going into hunting season

The "Old" GFS has it too, albeit closer to the coast. I work for Duke Energy and am part of the storm response team so, trust me, I hope everything recurves this year! It's been a whirlwind for us last few years between Matthew, Nate, Irma, Florence, and Michael! I do enjoy tracking these storms, especially Cape Verde ones. I hope it's a busy season but only with fish storms!

Here is the shear I was referring to. It has a narrow finger of somewhat favorable winds but is not consolidated enough to take advantage before it enters that large area of 30-40kt shear. Should it travel slightly further south, however, it may spend more time in that finger of lighter winds, affording the opportunity for some consolidation of convection

That strong wave that came off of Africa recently has been upgraded to 40% chance of development in 5 days. It has dry air in front of it and some hostile winds it will have to navigate but does have model support for development in the long range. The GFS, in particular, has been fairly consistent showing a moderately strong cane recurving off the SE coast in 10-11 days. I feel like this is one that may bide it's time until it gets into the vicinity of the lesser Antilles. Way far out but something to watch and probably signals the beginning of our cape verde tracking season

One thing I’ve loved tracking the last few days is the pattern of these afternoon storms. With very weak steering currents they don’t really move so much as sit, rain out, then re-develop in a general direction on their own outflow boundary. Very few organized clusters but a ton of outflow boundaries makes for a busy radar but VERY inconsistent rain and the appearance of “skipping” over some places. Looks to be the case Thursday but I’ve noticed some models (gfs especially) seem to be advertising some increased coverage.