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About FLweather

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    Weather Enthusiast-- Formerly ncweather

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    Orlando, FL

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  1. HWRF been spot on all season long. More so than any global
  2. Judging by radar that flare up towards the north northwest was not the the llc. The true core resides with the MLC. Which is WSW of Nassau. ESE of Homestead FL. Atm. Heading in a direction of a south west component. At current trajectory the actual lp will not make landfall in the peninsula of FL. The keys yeah.
  3. Has recon ever flyed into this storm? Seen earlier today unassigned recons. 3 planes. But using satellite imagery and trends to guess what this storm is doing? Useful. If you want to go by radar then yeah apparently now that flare up east of Miami is the LLC. But the MLC has a nice core to it. Still though the general motion is S/SW atm.
  4. I agree. I've been watching and wondering. Especially the HWRF. Ramps it up over the GOM roughly 980mb or 80-90mph before landfall. But considering what's happening tonight makes you wonder on tomorrows implications. The globals have been horrible. But one thing I've noticed though. They've been half way right on the shear aspect. The globals show little shear. But considering the development tonight and trajectory. La/MS fair games for landfall. Between a 3-4 cat.
  5. I would say so. Cause looking at the radar trends out of the Bahamas and the weather channel app on my phone. The cone of uncertainty The LLC is quickly organizing further south west of the cone of uncertainty. The posed trajectory of this system(Sally) would skim the southern Everglades south of Homestead FL
  6. Looking at the radar out of the Bahamas. Coc just about under/slightly NW of the deepest convection on IR. Its drifting south south west into the deepest convection. Definitely getting its act together this evening. Fairly favorable environment aloft. Practically no shear. Very possible TS Sally will be named by sometime tomorrow morning.
  7. Definitely two areas of Lp on radar out of the Bahamas. Guessing the SLP is southeast of Miami. Mid level lp SE of Nassau. http://smartmet.bahamasweather.org.bs/radarcomposite/
  8. Damn I wish I could post a picture. Phone acting stupid. Any mets notice that quick moving features on IR satellite loop. Looked like a pulsating line then convection blows up on SW side.
  9. Whatever that feature to her south is quickly aiding in that flare up. What a difference over the last 2 hours.
  10. Pretty interesting changes last few frames. The blob seems to be consolidating with Laura. Her symmetry is improving and the eye is closing with that flare up.
  11. Laura definitely improved overnight and getting herself together this morning. Convection definitely consolidating around the center. FWIW 0z HWRF still gunho SW LA landfall 939mb. 125-140kt winds.
  12. Probably fair to say. LLC taking off. Now time to stack the mid level. We may be experiencing RI atm.
  13. At least they have 2 recons going. That's more data at same time frame. Tomorrows 6z runs will have a lot of merit.
  14. HWRF has been very steady on Location and strength. Will be interesting to see if this blows the globals out of the park. Serious though this model has been like a sniper. Locked and loaded. Sw LA and around 930mb. RI starts in roughly 18 hours.
  15. 6zHwrf has it at 931mb. Sw La. 125-140 kt. Definitely the possibility of a solid cat4, cat5