Henry's Weather

You need to start with the assumption that nothing special will happen with a system, because that's true 95% of the time. Just logically, not every threat can be a "severe blizzard", so why always forecast one? It boggles my mind. I honestly don't understand how you can handle the instability of being so relentlessly "optimistic" about systems, since you're so often wrong. At some point, you'd think you'd become more conservative, just to avoid disappointment. Significant systems are quite rare. Your understanding of a typical SNE winter should not be informed by highly anomalous years like 2014-2015 and 2017-2018, which I'm assuming are some of the years that you grew up on. Learning to dissociate your forecaster self and your snow weenie self as best as you can is a very worthwhile goal. I had to learn this skill, and am still trying to improve in this aspect.

one of my favorite storms of all time, just because of how it snuck up on us.

18z GFS's evolution is functionally identical to the ICON, which the low closing off in Central PA and swinging eastward. Pretty sweet look.

I'm thinking that this might also have P-type issues verbatim for the coast, unless the northern energy keeps digging, which seems dependent on the amplitude of the western ridge

Quicker phase incoming

right rogut, forgot abt pivotal.

We need some pictorals for those of us too cheap to buy...

It is nice to see ensembles shift west and tighten a little, even if for only one run. Feels like we still have about 3-4 days to go before we start worrying about anything other than H5 configuration. It's fun to have something to track again!

I respect the gumption. And I agree with you about the ridge positioning, that's a good point. But everything has to go right for this to work man, and I think you might be setting yourself up for disappointment.

What is going on here, GFS takes a fish storm 50 miles west on November 29th and we're talking 4-8"?

While typical early-season stipulations apply, the antecendent airmass is pretty anomalously cold

can someone link the cam?

Definitely had a bump west

"Pinwheel" looking eye developing now

I wouldn't be surprised by 930mb