NorthHillsWx

If the piece of energy that gets left behind from the 1/3-4 system hooks up with any northern stream energy, the on 1/5 system may have a chance at 1) heading further north than shown 2) pulling down the limited cold air more efficiently 3) spread some precip inland. However, with no blocking HP it would be a coastal cutter at best and a very transient system. We know we don't do well with transient systems without cold air already entrenched. At best this would be a rain system but for now, just another dry, average day...

I know. It has a push of cold and a signal for at least a southern stream system of some sort but... it'd take perfect timing and low placement and even then with the cold coming not having a sustained artic source, it'd be (my favorite word for this area) marginal. Punting it, waiting till the week of the 13th!

It's OUR time! Bank on it. Fabulous February will save us!

The lack of any sustained cold in ANY model is much more concerning than lack of storms showing. No COLD = no CHANCE, even if a storm pops up. Just bleak right now. And it being north of 60 next few days aint helping my mood! I remember in the beginning December we were talking about "at least there's no torch showing." Well, no torch showing means it'll definitely torch. 67 in Elkins is INSANE. 60+ here, unfortunately, is becoming normal.... Hate to say it, but I'm about ready to stick a fork in this winter. February and March snows aren't all that good anyway. Sun angle really screws with them. Were in the prime climo and sun angle season right now and I BARELY see lows below freezing, lows!, for the next 10+ days... Buckle up, the sanitarium is going to be fun!

Guess we punt peak climo and hope for a bottom of the 9th, 2 strikes miracle! Never fails in the South!

Positivity from early December is turning into reality that (as usual) we punt December and the first week of January. No good source of cold air throughout this period means that even if a storm pops up, it'll rain. Welcome to the South

.40" in the rain bucket. Seems like the back edge has passed and that might be the storm total. Another good soaking rain.

HOW is THAT look unable to produce snow in late December?!?!?!?!?!?! It doesn't get more classic for a major in these parts, albeit better HP placement (and stronger) but that is pretty close to textbook. I'd continue to watch this for sure.

The setup the week of the 20th is certainly intriguing. A lot of moving pieces but I do especially like the blocking showing up, as outlined above, and the NAO going from strongly positive to neutral (or perhaps negative). The southern storm track from the GFS isn't bad, just need cold air transport. I think there is potential.

I would agree with you there. Salem looks to be one area I'd flag as still having the potential for a significant event here. Just because it may be more localized and fewer posters on this forum will see much of anything, it does not mean some areas could receive a significant storm.

For this late-week storm, I think we are seeing a general consensus forming in the models where there will be, at least during the onset, so freezing/frozen precip especially in the favored CAD areas (NW of 85). With the HP moving out to sea and limited blocking, there will not be sufficient cold air transport to sustain sub freezing temps for very long. This system, to me, looks entirely dependent on how low DP's get the evening before precip arrives and whether evap cooling can take place before the HP scoots out, losing the cold/dry source. These systems are extremely frequent here and can lead to WWA being issued. I do not see any reason to expect more than that as the colder Canadian seems to be an outlier at this time. Without a continued NE flow of cold air I do not see how sub 32 temps hang on long outside of the absolute most favored CAD regions. Even the Canadian switches wind to the NNW rather quickly.

Low of 42. 0.22" in the rain bucket. Very thick fog this morning on the drive to work. Also made it feel like it was midnight still for my morning coffee. Stayed dark way too late to get going on a Monday!

Couldn't agree more. The pattern is not half bad and the fact we are going into Christmas week with at least a storm signal and cold (and no impending blowtorch) is exciting. How often does it snow here before Christmas on even the best winters? A lot of people already worrying at the very onset of the climo season for snow with a decent pattern upcoming.

Cold morning, down to 27 last night. Ground was completely frozen and crunchy. Looks like a beautiful weekend is in store

Low of 30 this morning. Been a lot of sub freezing mornings this year for it being only December 5th.

Something you just get used to saying...

Also, I guess no one stuck around this run beyond hour 270 haha.... I'll take snow then ice then 72 hours below freezing! Feels good to have winter weather threats show up, even in LR. Feel like we barely had even that last season!

I'm just happy people are talking about something. Been awhile! But seriously, it's not a half bad pattern coming up, and it doesn't stop with this threat. Seems to be decent cold lurking around an active SJU and NAO moving towards neutral mid month. Man I would love some real blocking to show up. Seems like it's been years since we've had a true Greenland block to sit put for a big storm

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Carolina_ice_storm_of_2002 Worst one of my life was occurring today, 17 years ago. Still remember the eerie noise of trees popping all over the neighborhood that morning. Had to cut our way out. Brutal cold followed it without power meaning many nights huddled up as a family by the fireplace

Climo isn't necessarily against us. Some of our (Raleigh Area) most crippling ice storms have occurred in the first part of December. I would say climo would be against all-snow more than an ice event

Ridiculous to post about getting prepared for an ice storm more than a week out in the South... Like what could you even do a week out for an ice storm??? On top of the likelihood nothing will happen. This comes across as clickbait

If that came to fruition, dust off your generators....

It's what happens as soon as something shows up in the LR. No one worries about patterns or trends. It's all doom and gloom until they actually see pink purple and blue on a computer map at hour 384 that the idea that we are entering winter weather season and there will be threats materializes in people's heads! But I regress, not a bad pattern at all. No prolonged torches or SE highs. Decent cold shots seemingly weekly. A BN November. Heck, it's December 3rd and the mood on this board feels like it's February 3rd and most places are still waiting on their first flakes!

0.16" and a low of 51 here. Warmest low in some time but clouds seem to be tempering the expected warmup this afternoon. Another fall-feeling day, rain also knocked a lot of the remaining leaves off the trees this morning, I've noticed

33 and frosty again this morning. Looks to be an absolutely beautiful afternoon. Hoping I can slip out of work early and make it to the deer stand!