NorthHillsWx

Well, managed to make it through September with a grand total of 2 days with measurable rainfall. Both of them same event (hurricane Dorian). Only got a T of rain from the storms Friday night as they moved just east of my location, though some areas did OK with that. Still, this is the driest month in quite some time with 1.24" total and being that came from one event and had extremely dry antecedent conditions beforehand, I can say we are in full blown drought. An interesting observation, I took my grandfather to the farm yesterday (They actually only received round 1/2" total this month) and while driving in the dirt road, noticed all the leaves are grey. It was an eerie image coming in with the off-color leaves. Took me a minute to realize that the coloring was from the huge amounts of dust being kicked up by passing vehicles and landing and accumulating on the roadside leaves. Haven't seen that out there. Might need to take a picture next time, it is wild how much dust and how high up it is making it on the roadside foliage!

Too bad Lorenzo is weakening before being sampled. That would have been an excellent specimen at peak intensity.

Karen is dead. Disorganized swirls this morning. I'm struggling to find a tropical system at the moment. She had a nice run as Long-Lived TS, lol

Bring on the drought of 2019... Hopefully the change to cooler includes an active coastal pattern for a soaking rain. Rain associated with frontal passages is not going to cut it. Need soaking-type rains now.

Given the high rain rate and lack of flight level wind data to support this, I'm surprised that's not flagged

Since NCEP stopped automated posting of GOES products (Himawari products are still being posted at current time) to the SSD server, weathernerds.org began to use that color scheme as an option for measuring cloudtop temperatures. And yes, I agree, AVN a valuable tool if not a more scathing one for historical comparison. Anyway, my eyes and empirical obs in general are better suited for 40 years of AVN because that is what I am used too. Yep. I think it got brought up during Michael the appearance of storms today is more severe in some people's eyes due to the new IR images available. The AVN images are hard to beat though from a historical perspective, as you said.

Where do you find these classic IR images? That's more impressive to me than the new ones. Nostalgic but shows how powerful this storm is!

Looks very broad and weak. I'd imagine they haven't sampled the strongest winds yet though. Definitely elongated NE to SW. On another note, this has been an exceptionally long-lived 35-40 kt storm!

I disagree. I do not see a center under that convection. Looks like maybe the MLC. I think the LLC is broadening out and looking trough-like. Watch the visible for the real story

Holy Moly! Lorenzo has become the beast from the East! Though he won't attain the high-end winds of Dorian this is a sight to behold! A monster cane with very little threat to land, a tracking dream! Been explosive development though he's probably about maxed out. Can't take my eyes off that core. Man I would love to see a radar of that large core!

"Some Shear" is an understatement! The circulation is already stretched and being impinged on the NW from that firehose of shear at present. The sliver of slightly favorable conditions is so small it would take near perfect of the LLC to find it that it would have any benefit to maintain strength. Said it yesterday and reinforced today, despite the increase in convection: Karen is toast

If you look at the visible loop, you can see the cirrus clouds streaming from north to south over the mostly exposed circulation. That indicates the already weak system is experiencing significant shear. I do not see, from the analysis and current trends, a way out for the system. I may be wrong but also without any model support strengthening the system, my money would be this is an open wave at this time tomorrow.

That is about as unfavorable look as you will see for significant development, minus Lorenzo's little window. Karen has no chance.

I can remember, vaguely, the sound of raindrops falling in my backyard. Now, think I see a higher likelihood of this board reporting dust devils or tumble weeds then a raindrop over the next 10 days

Certainly appears to be through the worst of the shear, as noted earlier.

Any chance the center of Karen re-forms under that persistent area of deep convection where the MLC appears to be located, from the sat loop? Shear appears to be lessening and this has been the most vigorous and persistent convection of the system so far.

We've had some dry periods but this is definitely going to be the first chance at a full-blown aerial drought in quite some time here, unfortunately. Last few years being so wet made us spoiled in regards to being above average for precipitation. Thankfully it is in the autumn after the growing season for farmers but it is DRY. Warm again today but not as bad as yesterday. Currently 83. Bring on a real cold front please! Pretty easy to see the ridge placement on the GFS total precip map through the end of the run. Sheesh!

Well, was hoping for 40's this morning. Didn't get close. 55 low here (I think RDU got a few ticks lower). Very pleasant regardless! DRYYYYYYYYYYYYY

Hopefully a wet pattern starts soon. Not seeing much hope on the models. Keep checking back hoping for a change. Only good news is timing for duck season. Going into duck season it's going to be very little water (opposite of last year). Birds are going to have fewer places to go so hopefully my farm which has great beaver swamps that always hold water will have more birds as they will be less spread out and more prone to use continual sources of water, Looking at the positive of this!

Whew, today certainly became a fun day on the tropical front! Rapidly forming TS, New TD on it's way to becoming a hurricane, and Humberto growing and making it's push to a major while threatening Bermuda! Also plenty of development in the Eastern Pacific... It's like it's mid-September or something!

Just like that, NHC has designated a TD. Expected to become a storm shortly. Pretty interesting to watch the rapid organization over the last 12 hours. Big rain-maker for Texas

Ready for the ccoldown! A warmer than expected 91 imby! Per ususal

Looks like we have a TD on the Texas coast, per Houston radar. Not much time till it moves ashore which is pretty lucky as it is organizing rather quickly. If it was slightly further offshore I'd say a 2007 Humberto-like system could be in the cards, very similar organization and location

I'm surprised we're even that close to average in central NC. We did receive 1.5" from the hurricane but that feels like a century ago. Coupled with the high heat, we're in mid-summer form in terms of the yard browning out

One word sums up the upcoming and recent weather pattern quite nicely: Dry