NorthHillsWx

One word for the upcoming/current pattern: Bleak When storms are showing in the beginning of January and the rain/snow line is 200 miles into Canada, our chances don't look great...

I consider it a fast-developing coastal storm with little/no blocking that is extremely transient. The type where the cold usually comes in to late or at the very end.

If the piece of energy that gets left behind from the 1/3-4 system hooks up with any northern stream energy, the on 1/5 system may have a chance at 1) heading further north than shown 2) pulling down the limited cold air more efficiently 3) spread some precip inland. However, with no blocking HP it would be a coastal cutter at best and a very transient system. We know we don't do well with transient systems without cold air already entrenched. At best this would be a rain system but for now, just another dry, average day...

I know. It has a push of cold and a signal for at least a southern stream system of some sort but... it'd take perfect timing and low placement and even then with the cold coming not having a sustained artic source, it'd be (my favorite word for this area) marginal. Punting it, waiting till the week of the 13th!

It's OUR time! Bank on it. Fabulous February will save us!

The lack of any sustained cold in ANY model is much more concerning than lack of storms showing. No COLD = no CHANCE, even if a storm pops up. Just bleak right now. And it being north of 60 next few days aint helping my mood! I remember in the beginning December we were talking about "at least there's no torch showing." Well, no torch showing means it'll definitely torch. 67 in Elkins is INSANE. 60+ here, unfortunately, is becoming normal.... Hate to say it, but I'm about ready to stick a fork in this winter. February and March snows aren't all that good anyway. Sun angle really screws with them. Were in the prime climo and sun angle season right now and I BARELY see lows below freezing, lows!, for the next 10+ days... Buckle up, the sanitarium is going to be fun!

Guess we punt peak climo and hope for a bottom of the 9th, 2 strikes miracle! Never fails in the South!

No wind, minimal lightning, and 30 min of decent rain in North Hills.Yay. Saw more wind this afternoon when it got sunny and some winds mixed to the surface

Just like that the clouds parted and the sun is out in full in the Raleigh area. Did not expect the clouds to abate this quickly or entirely. Not great...

No sun in the Triangle area yet, but extremely gusty south winds. Warm, imagine if we see some breaks we could shoot into the 80's fairly rapidly. Some concerning severe parameters especially west and north of my location. Will be interesting to see if some of the sunshine others are noting lead to increased instability and maximize the storm potential during peak heating hours.

I've said it before, I'll say it again: Rarely do nighttime (Especially 9PM-12AM) events live up to hype. I think Triad through western VA will have a nasty/severe squall line but RARELY do these things hold together from a severe perspective east of that much after sundown. I expect no different today, despite the enhanced risk area.

Saw this exact scenario on the 3k Nam for tomorrow, discrete cells then an organized line. First potential severe threat in a while.

Purely speculation but this storm feels like a Matthew track to me. I've been saying that since the first member started advertising the northward bend yesterday morning. If it slows down, it is going north. That's just what these things do. And I'm supposed to be in Nags Head all week so I KNOW its coming north haha

I hear ya! I had been in the same boat for awhile until yesterday saw one storm blow up right over my house and sit, dropping an inch of much, much needed rain, 30-35 mph gusts, and close ctg lightning. Had a good storm a week ago but not as much rain. Can't wait for the, gasp, 70's tomorrow! Hope to see a blossoming radar shortly and maybe a cool, light, drizzly rain type of day tomorrow

I haven't been enthused with this setup nearly as much as I was yesterday's. I thought the forecast yesterday way underdid the effect of heating and the MCAPE values were high. Same today but the forcing associated with the front arrives late and very rarely this time of year do nighttime storms reach severe limits, unless you get an MLS situation which this is not. Though dynamics appear most favorable in SE VA and NE NC and this lines up with high CAPE values in prime heating hours and highest shear values in this area as well, I expect a line of storms to progress from NW-SE through midnight. Isolated wind damage for sure but I doubt we see much outside the highlighted areas. That might be what the 3K nam is seeing in its latest run, the line falls apart once peak heating hours wane (though did you see the 6z? That had a significant line. I took that with a grain of salt given other modelling). Should be some good rains. We got an inch yesterday from the storms that developed after that awesome gravity wave cloud (I think that's what it was) moved through.

I'm surprised no one mentioned the severe weather from Monday. Drove through the Southwestern side of Raleigh (Centennial Campus Area) and there was a good amount of tree damage (Leaves, branches, and full trees blown down). Seemed like there were several storms of this magnitude around that afternoon so I'd expect similar damage. We had nearly 20k outages that afternoon too and many of our crews worked into the night to get power back on.

Most short-range modelling seems to have backed off on storm chances today from Triangle south. Still seems the storms that do fire will have the potential to be strong, especially with the extreme heat today. We will have to watch the 3-5:00 timeframe closely today to see where storms do fire on the southern outflow from the convection moving through VA and also where localized enhancement takes place. Me thinks a few good storms are possible, though widespread aerial coverage seems lackluster