NorthHillsWx

People were claiming the intensity a bust in this flight bc of a NW-SE pass

Recon confirms intensity. NHC > online weather forum weenies

If forecasts hold, Melissa all but guarantees we will finish the season above average ACE. This legitimately did not seem possible going into the third week of September

Crazy that 4 of 5 hurricanes this year have been cat 4+

Recon would indicate a hurricane

Outflow finally expanding to the west. Seems like it’s getting there

GFS has been better than Euro and the hurricane models that took this well west of Jamaica. If anything they have started caving to GFS which was predicting the center reformation to the east that happened. That being said, none of this is good news for Jamaica they are squarely in the bullseye

My farm in Franklin county dipped to 33.1 and the airport close to there was 35. Frost advisory verified outside urban areas it would seem. Still my point click had me down to 37 this morning so we missed significantly

Only got down to 45.5 here

I don’t think it would on that track but NHC is showing it for continuity due to the otherwise extremely favorable environment. Track will play the pivotal role here in maximum intensity as all other factors would favor extreme intensification over the hottest water in the basin. GFS once again weak and east, similar to ICON. Will be some major losers on the model front from this one

As expected, severe drought has spread into central NC as far west as Wake county. Meanwhile a pocket of severe drought conditions have developed SE of Charlotte as well. Widespread rain looks possible next week and will be more than welcomed given the rapidly escalating drought conditions across the state. Some areas have seen under 2” of rain total since the second half of August

Obviously terrible flooding situation but that would be nonstop land interaction to keep it somewhat in check intensity wise

Overnight trends are east which probably would reduce the maximum potential intensity

It’s crazy that we have a defined center and named storm and the ensemble outputs look like a 2 year olds drawing

Severe drought very likely to expand across the Carolina’s and we are now likely to see back to back months with less than 1” of rain here. Not good, one bad symptom of the lackluster hurricane season

35 with heavy frost at the farm in Louisburg this morning! Was not expecting this. Was 42 at my house when I left

Someone needs to take the GFS out back and put it down like old yeller

Lorenzo fought valiantly but, RIP

Need to watch for some severe storms on Sunday

Wouldn’t it be something if we make it through peak season and October and get our only US hurricane landfall in November

Lorenzo is battling but that shear looks very strong. Not sure it’s long lived. Follow up wave keeps getting more and more support for development and as others have said it will make it further west. How far is unknown but it could be a carribean problem

IMO it could’ve been named well before they named it. That it existed within an upper level low was why it was just what it was: a subtropical storm. Honestly a very impressive one at that to have the symmetry and sustained convection at that latitude. Would’ve loved radar from that storm because it would’ve looked like a hurricane haha. As for JB naming coastal storms, absolutely not. TWC already subjected us to that with winter storms and it’s a joke. Nor Easter’s are part of life on the east coast and honestly until this year we’d been in a very long dry spell for significant ones. We can’t name every weather system just bc it’s impactful. You’d have to start naming lows that hit the west coast too if you went that route. It’s just not a good idea. Coastal lows are very impactful but they are nothing like a hurricane and coastal towns know how to prepare accordingly as is. This one has literally 0 tropical characteristics and comparing it to Karen is like comparing an apple to an orange. Their both low pressure systems is about the only similarity. He has gone off the rails, and it’s sad because he had been one of the better Mets back in the day but it’s been so long I just cancel anything he says out as noise at this point. As for this system, lots of coastal flooding from New England to the Carolina’s and some areas of significant flash flooding in SC but overall a lot of areas saw beneficial rain. For a complicated forecast the storm ended up doing about exactly what was expected for the entire coast.

Picked up an additional 0.02” overnight at some point. Currently thick overcast and 60.4 still breezy but nowhere near the constant gusts of yesterday. Saw a lot of inland areas recorded gusts over 40 yesterday which is very impressive for a nor Easter

High of 66 low of 59. 0.06” additional 0.77” two day total

Wind has been very impressive in the triangle for a nor Easter. I’d say gusts have been 30-35 all afternoon