NorthHillsWx

Snow globe

37, 37 here. Don’t think there’s been a northern trend or really much movement at all in models, just need the precip. The heavier totals in VA are from more precip, not more northern movement of the system. Precip amounts have increased south of there into NC as well. Models have generally been ticking up over the last 3 days especially in Virginia where a legit storm looks likely. Here in NC it’s all about how much precip gets in after the front. Current advisory outline looks correct. I expect 1/2” to 1” for the advisory area increasing to 2-3” for the border. Travel issue should be limited until this evening but overnight/tomorrow morning roads are going to be terrible area wide with the flash freeze coming this evening regardless of whether snow accumulates in your area.

34.2 was the low overnight. Picked up 0.20” yesterday. Nickel and diming our way into putting a dent in this drought

@eyewall that was definitely worth the trek. Beautiful snow. I looked at radar this morning and was happy for you

36.9 with 0.08” in the bucket

North trend much last 3 days? DC looks to be getting it good on radar

Meanwhile my kids have a 2 hour delay for our 39 degrees and drizzle.

I think you nailed it… just looked at traffic webcams in FarmVille it’s ripping. Enjoy

Sleet/rain mix in Raleigh

Low of 30.0 on the dot. Once again, heavy frost

I’d go to @BornAgain13 backyard that looks like a good spot

0z NAM was colder and more snow northern piedmont

Canadian is a beautiful storm for central NC on Monday

Highly highly unlikely in triangle. N of 85 I’d expect some sort of delay if WWA is hoisted, which could happen even for small amounts since it would coincide with rush hour.

Mondays event has a much higher ceiling than Friday. If you get more of a negative tilt to the trough you can really crank a coastal. At this point I’d say less likely given the progressive nature of the pattern and it being NS dominant but with a -NAO and well timed Arctic high this is one that could develop quickly on modeling. Definitely interesting to watch tho a lot to work out with 2 systems this weekend. Fridays event is pretty straight forward. Kind of an overrunning event with transient HP. Earlier arrival and heavier rates equals better chance of seeing flakes. I’d say the ceiling is a stripe of 1-3” likely in southern Virginia. Without much upper level support and a strung out system, plus marginal cold with a transient HP, I think you’re on hopium if you think it would be more than that. Can say if you’re in western and the northern half of piedmont areas in NC and the southern half of VA you definitely stand the chance of at least minimal accumulation. Would be fun given the early November system to see most of the state with at least 1 accumulating snowfall before Christmas even if just marginal

HWO from RAH reads like the most depressing event of all time: A cold rain may mix with snow and sleet Friday morning. A very light coating may result, mostly on elevated surfaces, before melting and washing away in a cold rain on Friday.

Low of 29.2 and the heaviest frost of the year. Car doors were frozen shut with residual moisture from yesterday’s rain. Posted in the November obs but picked up 1.09” yesterday and high topped out at 44.1

I’ll take whatever the gfs is smoking on that Monday system

GFS is just hilarious. Says “what warmup” this run

Agreed. Heavier rates with the high still in a decent spot Friday morning would most certainly mean snow for the northern half of the state. Timing (earlier) rates (heavier) are keys

12z Friday it’s gone from 41 to 36 in Raleigh over the last 4 runs that’s not a small tick

Still ticking colder every run

Ended with a great 1.09” rainfall. Stuck at 42.3 as of this writing

It’s before Christmas and we’re on our second and possibly third threat. (First being early November snow to the coast). Maybe we don’t all see flakes but that’s a heck of a start compared to last 7 winters

GFS looks to be coming in colder