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NorthHillsWx

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  1. NorthHillsWx
    Not tropical but most models are forecasting a very strong east coast low this weekend that will likely severely impact areas of the OBX that have seen devastating erosion this summer due to an almost nonstop NE fetch and numerous strong hurricanes driving wave run up. Buxton has been devastated this summer and this weekend will likely send even more houses into the water. Very bad situation there this year even though we have mostly dodged all tropical bullets
  2. NorthHillsWx
    And pretty much all of this seasons ACE comes from your circle
  3. NorthHillsWx
    It’s been a strange season but one thing that has held up was the idea of the SW Atlantic producing. Record high OHC translated into an epic season for that specific part of the basin
  4. NorthHillsWx
    The eastern lemon has excellent model support for development but will be another recurve
  5. NorthHillsWx
    Cat 2, 966 mb at 11 am
  6. NorthHillsWx
    Pressure dropped 3 mbs between passes, now down to 967
  7. NorthHillsWx
    https://x.com/andyhazelton/status/1973385028051636664?s=46&t=NyKvXvI1o-sJQb-68mmo4g
  8. NorthHillsWx
    The southern side is much stronger right now and would be in line with the forward motion but models keep building a strong sting jet over the NW quad at some point near or over the island partly due to interaction with Humberto. Not a totally tropical evolution but one to watch to boost winds at a bad time for Bermuda. Imelda is trying to look pretty at the moment. Don’t think it holds this classic eye look for long though but it is definitely strengthening right now
  9. NorthHillsWx
    Pressure falls continuing (looks possibly like sub 970) and winds starting to catch up. FL winds to 100kts this last pass and SFMR winds coming up at well. Bermuda is in for a serious blow. HWRF brings this to a major right over the island. I think cat 2 is most likely but the ceiling remains low end cat 3
  10. NorthHillsWx
    I disagree, models have hinted for days it will strengthen somewhat due to the interaction with Humberto and peak near Bermuda. It looks as healthy as it has its entire life this morning. Not saying it’s likely but this storm has not peaked yet and the window for cat 3 is still open
  11. NorthHillsWx
    Up to 90mph at latest advisory
  12. NorthHillsWx
    Imelda has become significantly better defined overnight with a large eye and more cohesive convection. Strengthens appears imminent.
  13. NorthHillsWx
    Up to 75 knots. Visible reveals a possible eye feature forming
  14. NorthHillsWx
    Imelda is winning the fight
  15. NorthHillsWx
    I guess I posted about 15 minutes too early
  16. NorthHillsWx
    With the storm now moving in a more favorable direction considering the shear vector we are starting to see signs of strengthening this morning. Convection is firing over the center and starting to wrap into the dry slot the storm ingested last night. Despite the dry air, pressure falls have continued and we are now seeing convection become more organized as well. This system is well on its way to hurricane intensity
  17. NorthHillsWx
    2025 ACE is now within about 10 of average. With the two ongoing storms, albeit with Humberto likely to become non tropical today, we will be within single digits of average. I cannot stress enough how impressive this is given how far behind we were just a couple weeks ago
  18. NorthHillsWx
    60 kts at 5 am but dry air has really slowed intensification. Models are pretty aggressive over the next 48 hours and some peak this near major. It likely won’t be a “pretty” storm but Bermuda looks to be in the bullseye of a strong hurricane. I really wouldn’t be shocked if this makes a run at cat 3 near the island. A lot of upper level dynamics at play including a very strong sting jet progged across guidance as the storm approaches the island. Very interested to watch the evolution
  19. NorthHillsWx
    Woke up to good steady rain. Hopefully this continues for a bit. Much much needed EDIT: 0.70” looks to be the event total. MTD is now 0.95” really could’ve used some more from this system
  20. NorthHillsWx
    0.53” for the event so far, 0.78” MTD
  21. NorthHillsWx
    55 kts at 5 pm
  22. NorthHillsWx
    Was not expecting it to look so symmetrical today. Very impressive loop and very clear it is getting its act together quickly
  23. NorthHillsWx
    Last thing I’ll say right now- track guidance is now tightly clustered on a solution that gives Bermuda direct impacts if not a rare landfall. This is not a “fish” storm and may actually be chaseable in Bermuda
  24. NorthHillsWx
    Wow, Melbourne radar shows a very well defined system with a partial eyewall. Continued strengthening is expected based on that look
  25. NorthHillsWx
    Up to 60 mph at 11 am and now forecast to reach cat 2
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