I think we’re in the slow weakening phase now. With the core looking disrupted and wind expanding in all quadrants and the system now experiencing some northerly shear (which its northerly motion now put it directly in the line of fire with) I expect a slow rot of intensity. Likely remains a major through midweek but I believe we’ve already witnessed our secondary peak
This is the one that has my attention. Early indications are mixed about ridging over the Atlantic in time but it is starting at a lower latitude than Erin and very likely will impact the islands more directly than Erin
I’d say direct impacts are still unlikely but if EURO is correct it wouldn’t surprise me to see tropical storm advisories hoisted and given the expected size and wind field of the storm wave run up and over wash are almost a guaranteed issue at this point. I was there last week with the full moon and nor Easter and there wasn’t any beach at all
FL was just shy of 150kts and with SFMR more than supportive of a 5 in both SW and NE eyewalls I personally think there’s enough for an upgrade. Min pressure tanking through the 920s also firmly supports it
At present it looks like the track for Erin has ticked west enough to cause the least amount of impacts to land. Bermuda, while not out of the woods, seems to avoid the core on most modeling now as it splits the island and obx
Parts of Raleigh had significant flooding AGAIN last night. We were on northern edge but some areas saw up to 3” of rain. Our 0.67” brings the monthly total to 9.06”
I’d thought we missed the rain today but I was wrong. It’s pouring. Made it up to 86.7 but with dewpoints in the upper 70’s it felt like it was almost 100
Todays 1.32” brings the mtd total to 7.86”. 80.8 for the high 71.8 for the low and obviously very humid with all the rainfall. Soggy would be an understatement describing the condition of my yard