NorthHillsWx

Low of 28 this morning

We also lost the NAO that run. Just a totally different map

If anyone’s wondering how we fail to this level with the PD storm, thank that strong GL low preceding the system that nukes thermals all the way to Maine

The 18z gfs might be final nail in coffin

This GFS run is an utter disaster for everyone on the east coast, and in fact turns the PD storm into a severe threat with 70’s here

I think the posting will improve when something tangible exists to track. It’s the same crap over on southernwx just a lot are hyping this pattern but beyond that all you need is Georgia’s posts to know what’s coming from a pattern perspective. There aren’t many on any page who are that good at deciphering what teleconnections and analogs could mean for sensible weather, but there are a ton who can reasonably interpret model data and twitter posts from Mets enough to speak intelligently on here. If something pops up I expect that to happen. And no, I’m not hyping this pattern until I see ensemble support bc I believe teleconnections and analogs are useful, but for snow we need to actually see it eventually and hone in on a storm. The PD storm screams MA. We do not have a foundational high established beforehand and temps crashing east of mountains with enough precipitation remaining for accumulation after a system passes is a pipe dream 99.9% of the time

This is the last “childish post” I’ll make but I’ll explain what’s happened and why the forum has devolved: 1) Obvious- it hasn’t snowed in 2+ years 2) Since January 20, there hasn’t been a single thing to track, not even cold or a rainstorm. It’s been completely dead to the point the only thing worth talking about has been weeklies and teleconnections (outside range of ops and ensembles) 3) When/if a threat materializes, I expect this board to move back to a sense on normalcy. Talking 25+ day pattern changes is best left to a select few posters and other than their insight, yea there just hasn’t been a dang thing to talk about. Now I’ll retreat back to my hole in the sanitarium, it’s not going to snow, I’ve accepted it, onto severe season, see yall next year!

I wont believe it’s going to snow again until I look out my window and my grass is covered

You cannot sugarcoat the lack of ensemble support for snow with the PD storm. There’s definitely a storm signal but I still believe this is the mid Atlantic’s storm. SW Virginia in the game too. We’ll see but as others have said, lots of energy flying around. I’m skeptical still given recency bias and lack of ensemble support Mountains/foothills/virginia I believe are firmly in the game

^^^ this

Happy hour wasn’t happy at all!!! Rain or suppression, take your pick!

I don’t even remember a CAD rainy day in the 30’s this entire winter

Ughhhhh take me back

I get stuck on Raleigh’s climo a lot, but look towards the foothills, the triad, the roxboro snow globe. Even in our (triangle) fail years, those areas seemed to always make out ok. Looking at individual climate sites for snow can be a bit misleading as our snow storms frequently have giant variations across the state, but seeing all these areas blanked and struggling this much is humbling

Right. I don’t even think we’re in a rut, I think it’s just how it is in today’s climate. Last 5 years we’re averaging a hair over 1” of snow per season and I’ve seen my street covered once since December 2018. Teleconnections and analogs don’t mean anything anymore. We’re setting new precedents of failure every year. I know we haven’t seen the last good snowstorm in this area, but expecting a decent event every year used to be the norm. Now we’re more like hoping for our streets to be covered once every 5 years and a warning level snow every 10

I still stand by this. I get the pattern is right, but where is the cold?

I feel like we now have Columbia’s climo here in central NC.

The storm taking a perfect track for Virginia/MA on the 13th and being nothing but rain is also a terrible sign

Jack Campbell there is no arctic air on the way and no winter set-up. The cool anomalies are caused by rain and clouds, not cold air. Thats why it's so warm north of the storm track. Michael Berger no signs of that at all, all the cold air in on the other side of the hemisphere in the long range. When you see crazy maps with departure from average temperatures for late February, you must remember what average is. 10-15° below average in the Feb 15-25 timeframe still puts us in the 40s. It's not cold enough for winter weather. #cltwx #ncwx #scwx #wcnc Quotes from Brad P on his post

His Facebook https://www.facebook.com/share/swyyDz4sp3ZLEgJm/?mibextid=WC7FNe

Brad P ain’t having it, at all. Saying this period, and thus this winter, has no chance

Anddddd…. it’s gone. Killed by the GLL it previously had digging into Arkansas behind it

I do miss the days before we knew we had no chance a month out. Always was fun watching TWC classic local forecasts waiting to see snowflakes on the weekly graphic

I’ve been hoping my negativity would will it into existence. That 1055 high on the 0z GFS would definitely work, lol. 1037 from 6z is weak sauce

The winter thread is too much fun. A few still holding onto analogs and 492 hour weeklies for hope, then illogical and nonsensical spewing from everyone at the bottom of the cliff. Good times