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tarheelwx

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About tarheelwx

  • Birthday 03/22/1966

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  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Colfax, NC
  • Interests
    Family, sports, weather

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  1. tarheelwx

    CAD "ALWAYS" Overperforms

    For this past Tuesday's event, the NAM and RGEM had temps getting down to 30 or even 29 at GSO. I think it bottomed out at 32 and it was basically a non event. I beleive the snow/sleet from Monday through Monday evening was not CAD related, but more WAA precip really before the CAD really got established. That being the case, I really saw the Tuesday event as a solid underperformer. In other words, several of the models over estimated the CAD. TW
  2. tarheelwx

    CAD "ALWAYS" Overperforms

    It has been stated many, many times on this board that "CAD Always Overperforms" and the models always play catch up. I never really agreed with this as I know there have been many, many instances where we were borderline and nothing happened, or the event just didn't impress or even live up to some of the models. Today's storm was a perfect example - most places struggled to get down to the temp that the models were forecasting and this ended up being a nuisance event at best. Sure the sleet and snow on the front end was a bit better than expected, but that wasn't really related to CAD. I think what this boils down to is that people tend to remember the really great CAD storms that overperform, but those that come up short are lost in our memory forever. It's kind of like a great game that is won on a last second shot involving 2 great teams, vs. a game between 2 decent teams where the final result is 5-10 points. Feel free to chime in on this. I wasn't sure wherre to put it so mods feel free to place it elsewhere. TW
  3. tarheelwx

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    3km followed suit with ice storm over n &w NC. Mostly north and west of 64/85.
  4. tarheelwx

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    I agree it did well, but so did most other models. Didn’t the FV3 show some of the further south solutions that raised hopes for S NC down into SC? TW
  5. tarheelwx

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    With its performance beyond 5 days, it is ludicrous to think you’d replace any model with the FV3. It has repeatedly shown big storms for central NC in the 6-14 range that the others have not shown for the most part. Maybe I’m just judging my mby, but it’s been terrible. Way too cold with cold and wintry weather. Has it performed better elsewhere? TW
  6. tarheelwx

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    Guys, it has done this multiple times this winter and been nowhere close. Hard to believe we’d replace a model with this one. Having said that, I hope this is where it redeems itself. TW
  7. tarheelwx

    February 2019 Observations

    Big Frosty showing 70 at 3:21 with a rapidly falling barometer. Feels like 71 in not so frosty land! TW
  8. tarheelwx

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    Full NA trough means more of the same right? Just need some good timing and a bit more of a cold push to get something going. Have to get through the brief warmup though. TW
  9. tarheelwx

    Post Arctic front snow Tuesday, Jan 29

    Yes it was a joke. I've never been very good at it. I guess I'm pretty bad at it in person as well as on the keyboard. TW
  10. tarheelwx

    Post Arctic front snow Tuesday, Jan 29

    That counts as freezing rain right? Rain that falls and then freezes. Gotta make the most of a bad situation. TW
  11. tarheelwx

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    EPS showed Great Lakes low for Monday coastal. TW
  12. tarheelwx

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    I think the cold that was expected to settle more in the northeast and impact us has set up over the upper Midwest and appears to stay that way a while. Still time to settle down our way but time is running short and avg temps are headed north from here. TW
  13. tarheelwx

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    Can't load all the snow totals. TW
  14. tarheelwx

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    I just don't get all the talk about the threats that seem to evaporate. To be honest, we haven't had a legit board wide threat yet. One model showing a board wide storm to me does not make a threat. It's interesting and something to watch that gives some hope, but its not a threat in my eyes. Give me three major models showing it 3 runs straight and we have a legit threat. Except for the ice a couple of weeks ago, there hasn't been a legit threat for NC east of the mountains since the early December storm. Any one run flashes of a decent storm shown by the models have all been quickly dropped and rightfully so......... for obvious reasons. I remember winter of '93. There was a lot of hype about how great the pattern seemed to be, but nothing ever worked out or materialized of any consequence Jan-early March. Then, well you know. I'm kind of thinking we'll get something similar this year. We'll have to wait to near the end and then it will happen and then we'll flip to spring. I'm okay with that. TW
  15. tarheelwx

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    Yep. If we get enough to wet the roads, it will be rather slick in the morning.
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