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About tarheelwx

  • Birthday 03/22/1966

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    Colfax, NC
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    Family, sports, weather

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  1. Just hoping the warm holds through November and flips in early December. TW
  2. I think the GFS rolls almost everything out to sea at this range. At least anything near the Bahamas or Southeast coast. TW
  3. To me, it looks like it simply converged a bit to an area around Looks to me that it simply converged a bit. The southern most tracks did tick north, but there were I believe 3 tracks north of GA at 06z and now there is only 1. Convergence is good and what would be expected. TW
  4. Thanks. Agree. The storm appears to be fading. I’ve got to be in Colorado Springs Thursday afternoon until around 5 on Friday.
  5. Greetings from the Southeastern Forum, specifically NC. I'm in CO this week and finish up in Colorado Springs Thursday and Friday, travelling back to Denver Friday night for a Saturday morning 6am flight. I've been following the models for the past week and it seems they have become focused on northern CO for the late week storm. What should I expect in terms of weather conditions for Friday through Saturday early morning? I'd love to experience a good front range early spring snowstorm. Tarheelwx
  6. Cold November’s always seem to lead to disappointment for the season. They always seem to flip in December and we never get into a decent pattern in the heart of Winter.
  7. I’ve moved on. Just some flakes just west of GSO since the Dec storm. But, I expect something late next week. The 12z Canadian had a really nice mountain and foothills storm for Monday’ish. TW
  8. For this past Tuesday's event, the NAM and RGEM had temps getting down to 30 or even 29 at GSO. I think it bottomed out at 32 and it was basically a non event. I beleive the snow/sleet from Monday through Monday evening was not CAD related, but more WAA precip really before the CAD really got established. That being the case, I really saw the Tuesday event as a solid underperformer. In other words, several of the models over estimated the CAD. TW
  9. It has been stated many, many times on this board that "CAD Always Overperforms" and the models always play catch up. I never really agreed with this as I know there have been many, many instances where we were borderline and nothing happened, or the event just didn't impress or even live up to some of the models. Today's storm was a perfect example - most places struggled to get down to the temp that the models were forecasting and this ended up being a nuisance event at best. Sure the sleet and snow on the front end was a bit better than expected, but that wasn't really related to CAD. I think what this boils down to is that people tend to remember the really great CAD storms that overperform, but those that come up short are lost in our memory forever. It's kind of like a great game that is won on a last second shot involving 2 great teams, vs. a game between 2 decent teams where the final result is 5-10 points. Feel free to chime in on this. I wasn't sure wherre to put it so mods feel free to place it elsewhere. TW
  10. 3km followed suit with ice storm over n &w NC. Mostly north and west of 64/85.
  11. I agree it did well, but so did most other models. Didn’t the FV3 show some of the further south solutions that raised hopes for S NC down into SC? TW
  12. With its performance beyond 5 days, it is ludicrous to think you’d replace any model with the FV3. It has repeatedly shown big storms for central NC in the 6-14 range that the others have not shown for the most part. Maybe I’m just judging my mby, but it’s been terrible. Way too cold with cold and wintry weather. Has it performed better elsewhere? TW
  13. Guys, it has done this multiple times this winter and been nowhere close. Hard to believe we’d replace a model with this one. Having said that, I hope this is where it redeems itself. TW
  14. Big Frosty showing 70 at 3:21 with a rapidly falling barometer. Feels like 71 in not so frosty land! TW