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Roger Smith

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  1. The annual race in the original six portion (to be updated in June thread, I have the provisional scores ready) continues to be a three-person race among DonSutherland1, blazess556 and RJay with the chase pack keeping fairly close behind -- the June scoring did not move many from one position to another. Time for the July forecast contest, I hope to alert everyone before the long, long four-day weekend as the penalties will be horrendous by the 5th (I will be sending private messages to anyone who hasn't posted by Friday noon to see if we can avoid that). For this contest, predict the temperature anomalies in F deg (relative to 1981-2010) for the usual nine locations: DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH _____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA Entries are due by 06z Saturday, 1st of July (in other words, Saturday 0200h EDT) and penalties run 1% per 2h late, to 18z July 2nd, then they increase to 1% per hour until they gobble up all 100% of the possible scores early on the 6th. Good luck to all !!
  2. Extreme Forecast Update for June 2017 DCA and NYC appear likely to fall well inside our range of forecasts and will not qualify. BOS would need to finish +1.7 or higher, currently projected at +1.5 so just outside the zone. ORD likely to give CCM a win at +3.5. ATL oddly will qualify if it finishes +0.1 or cooler, our lowest forecast was 0.0 from RJay and Normal. The current projection is --0.5. IAH is also within range if it finishes at 0.0 as projected, that is second lowest forecast from RJay (DonS at -0.2). DEN has been near the extreme high forecast from me (+4.0) but appears headed lower to finish out of qualifying range. PHX will probably give Damage in Tolland a win (he has +3.0) as the current value of +3.5 seems to be holding to the end. SEA will need to finish +2.0 or higher, then it's a tussle between Damage (+2.0) and wxallannj (+2.8). Currently looks to be finishing a bit too low around +1.5 but will be at +2.0 on Monday so if forecasts are a bit too cool then this could join.
  3. The annual race (updated in May thread) has RJay, blazess556 and DonSutherland in a really close battle with the chase pack not that far behind. Your host, however, is so far behind I might just wait at the finish line. Time for the June forecast contest, make a note, enjoy your Memorial Day long weekend and post some forecasts on Tuesday or Wednesday, it's still on time. Also, a reminder, there is a tropical season contest and that can be found over in the Tropical Headquarters thread. I know several of you like to enter this one, no firm deadline but penalties will start to apply (slowly) in June. For this contest, predict the temperature anomalies in F deg (relative to 1981-2010) for the usual nine locations: DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH _____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA Entries are due by 06z Thursday, 1st of June (in other words, Thursday 0200h EDT) and penalties run 1% per 2h late, to 18z June 2nd, then they increase to 1% per hour until they gobble up all 100% of the possible scores early on the 6th. Good luck to all !!
  4. <<< ---=--- 2017 Annual Scoring Summary (Jan-June) ---=--- >>> ... ... ... ... ... ... ... (see post 22 for provisional June scoring) ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... Best scores: The first six numbers refer to the six locations, the last two refer to eastern and central division totals. Months won (in this part of the contest) are shown by name after the number codes. There are sometimes ties so the totals may add up higher than the number of months. Meanwhile, best total scores Janiary-June are highlighted in red in the table for six locations, and in bold italic for two groups and for all six. Best scores for June will be added when confirmed as they all seem subject to change, except for ORD and PHX which seem unlikely to change. Those are marked by asterisks. FORECASTER _________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east___ORD_ATL_IAH__cent___TOTAL__Best scores 1 DonSutherland.1 _____291 _296 _266 __853___302 _362 _391_1061__1914 _001.111..1.2_ Jan, May 2 blazess556 _________ 301 _301 _328__930___322 _307 _299__928___1858 __001.000 3 RJay _______________250 _319_294 __863 ___243 _354 _383__980 ___1843__122.200..2..2_Feb,Apr 4 BKViking ____________252 _268 _296__816 ___261 _339 _274 __874 ___1690 __000.001 t5 dmillz25 ____________264 _249 _266 __779 ___262 _290 _314 __866 ___1645 __100.101 t5 wxallannj ___________ 263 _250 _298 __811 ___175 _321 _338 __834 ___1645 __001.011 (June*) 7 Consensus __________234 _256 _241 __731 ___242 _325 _335 __902 ___1633 7 H2Otown_WX _______265 _268 _284 __817 ___192 _269 _283 __744 ___1561 __110.001..1.0 8 hudsonvalley21______ 225 _235 _226 __686 ___244 _328 _285 __857 ___1543 __000.010 9 Stebo ______________244 _247 _216 __707 ___197 _334 _288 __819 ___1526 __000.001 10 Tom ______________ 255 _249 _227 __731 ___202 _280 _297 __779 ___1510 __000.100 11 RodneyS ___________216 _212 _170 __598 ___233 _289 _389 __911 ___1509 __011.200..0..1 _ Mar 12 SD ________________254 _257 _233 __744 ___244 _263 _254 __761 ___1505 13 Damage in Tolland ___195 _217 _192 __604 ___260 _297 _294 __851 ___1455 __000.010..0.0 14 wxdude64 _________ 267 _216 _221 __704 ___202 _271 _260 __733 ___1437 __110.000..1.0 15 Normal ____________ 258 _245 _224 __727 ___209 _202 _244 __ 655 ___1382 __010.000.0.0 __ May 15 Roger Smith ________ 156 _179 _104 __439 ___130 _244 _295 __669 ___1108 16 Neckbeard93*_______ 102 _142 _107 __351 ___244 _242 _266 __752 ___1103 17 so_whats_happening#_197 _155 _172 __524 ___138 _224 _209 __571 ___1095 18 CCM % _____________134 _104 _150 __388 ___146 _138 _132 __416 ___ 804 __000.1*00 19 Prestige Worldwide@__111 _107_123 __ 341 ____25 _140 _118 __283 ___ 624 __110.010 20 Maxim@______________80 _ 85 _ 78 __243 ____50 _150 _142 __342 ___ 585 __100.001 ________________________________________________________________________________ Provisional annual scoring for western and all nine contests January-June 2017 FORECASTER _________DEN_PHX_SEA___TOTAL___Best scores___All nine ( = rank )__Months 1 Rjay _______________ 338 _414 _503___1255 __ 1 0 1 _ Jan _____3098 ( = 1) ___ FEB, APR 2 Roger Smith _________313 _389 _542 ___1244 __ 0 0 1_ Feb _____ 2352 (= 15) 3 Consensus ___________347 _405 _470 ___1222 __ 1 0 0 _________ 2855 ( = 5) 3 wxallannj ___________ 338 _439 _440 ___1217 __ 0 1 1 __________2862 ( = 5) 4 H20TownWx _________367 _358 _451 ___ 1176 __ 0 0 1 _________ 2737 ( = 7) t5 dmillz25 ____________ 340 _355 _464 ___ 1159 __ 1 0 1 _ Apr _____2804 ( = 4) t5 BKViking ____________287 _378 _494 ___ 1159 _________________ 2849 ( = 6) 7 RodneyS ____________340 _431 _380 ___ 1151 __ 0 1 0 __________ 2660 ( = 8) ___ MAR 8 Damage in Tolland ____ 280 _412 _457 ___1149 __ 0 1*1 _________ 2604 ( =10) 9 DonSutherland.1 ______ 373 _399 _376 ___1148 __ 2 0 0 _________ 3062 ( = 2) ___JAN, MAY 10 Tom _______________ 259 _407 _468 ___ 1134 _________________2644 ( = 9) 11 SD_________________ 322 _367 _384 ___ 1073 ________________ 2578 ( = 13) 12 Stebo ______________ 311 _346 _408 ___ 1065 __ 1 0 0 _________ 2591 ( = 11) 13 so_whats_happening#_221_297 _290 ____1064 __ 0 2 0 _ Mar,May _2159 ( = 16) 14 wxdude64 ___________299 _348 _416 ___ 1063_________________ 2500 ( = 14) 15 blazess556 __________332 _359 _370 ____1061 ________ June* ___ 2919 ( = 3) 16 hudsonvalley21 ______ 281 _352 _404 ___ 1037 _________________2580 ( = 12) 17 Normal _____________ 282 _302 _392 ___ 976 _________________ 2358 ( = 16) 17 Neckbeard93* _______381 _ 247 _135 ___ 763 __ 2 0 0 __________ 1866 (= 17) 18 Prestige Worldwide@__ 159 _223 _170 ___ 552 __ 0 1 0 ___________ 1176 ( =t18) 19 Maxim@ ____________ 161 _133 _176 ___ 440 __________________ 1055 (= 20) 20 CCM % _____________ 106 _100 _166 ___ 372 __________________ 1176 (=t18) _______________________________________________________________________ NOTES: * one month missed (Jan). # one month missed (Apr) @ two months played (Jan, Feb) % two months played (May, June) Jan late penalty for Blazess556 total of 2, (0,2) March late penalty deductions: ... Rjay lost 41 (22,19), Damage lost 18 (13,5) and wxdude64 lost 14 (12,2). April late penalty deductions: ... H2O_Town__wx lost 51 (25,26) and Neckbeard93 lost 32 (14,18). May late penalty deductions: ... BKViking lost 32 (20, 12). June late penalty deductions: ... Stebo lost 42 (26,16). __ ranks for Consensus and Normal do not affect ranks of lower scoring forecasters.
  5. Provisional scoring for June 2017 Scores are based on provisional end of month anomalies posted above, and will be adjusted when these change. FORECASTER _____________DCA_NYC_BOS___east____ORD_ATL_IAH___cent ____ TOTAL wxallannj ________________ 96 _ 80 _ 96 ____ 272 ____ 60 _ 66 _ 76 ____ 202 _____ 474 so_whats_happening _______98 _ 78 _ 92 ____ 268 ____ 76 _ 54 _ 56 ____ 186 _____ 454 H2OTown__Wx ___________ 90 _ 86 _ 98 ____ 274 ____ 74 _ 30 _ 84 ____ 188 _____ 462 BKViking _________________82 _ 82 _ 96 ____ 260 ____ 60 _ 74 _ 62 ____ 196 _____ 456 hudsonvalley21 ___________ 70 _ 96 _ 76 ____ 242 ____ 50 _ 80 _ 74 ____ 204 _____ 446 CCM ____________________70 _ 50 _ 88 ____ 208 ____100 _ 54 _ 84 ____ 238 _____ 446 blazess556 _______________ 94 _ 74 _ 94 ____ 262 ____ 72 _ 56 _ 52 ____ 180 _____ 442 DonSutherland.1 __________ 66 _ 96 _ 72 ____ 234 ____ 22 _ 88 _ 96 ____ 206 _____ 440 RJay ____________________ 60 _ 90 _ 70 ____ 220 ____ 30 _ 90 _100____ 220 _____ 440 Normal __________________ 60 _ 90 _ 70 ____ 220 ____ 30 _ 90 _100____ 220 _____ 440 dmillz25 _________________100 _ 80 _ 94 ____ 274 ____ 60 _ 40 _ 60 ____ 160 _____ 434 SD ______________________80 _100 _ 70 ____ 250 ____ 40 _ 70 _ 70 ____ 180 _____ 430 Tom ____________________ 72 _ 98 _ 74 ____ 244 ____ 40 _ 60 _ 84 ____ 184 _____ 428 Consensus _______________76 _100 _ 74 ____ 250 ____ 46 _ 60 _ 72 ____ 178 _____ 428 Stebo ___________________ 90 _100 _ 60 ____ 250 ____ 50 _ 60 _ 60 ____ 170 _ 420 Stebo ___ (-6%) __________ 85 _ 94 _ 56 ____ 235 ____ 47 _ 56 _ 56 ____ 159 _____ 394 RodneyS _________________ 50 _ 92 _ 54 ____ 196 ____ 45 _ 82 _ 96 ____ 188 _____ 384 Roger Smith ______________ 70 _ 86 _ 54 ____ 210 ____ 04 _ 60 _ 66 ____ 130 _____ 340 wxdude64 ________________ 52 _ 76 _ 54 ____ 182 ____ 00 _ 70 _ 78 ____ 148 _____ 330 Damage in Tolland _________ 50 _ 62 _ 30 ____ 142 ____ 24 _ 50 _ 58 ____ 132 _____ 274 Neckbeard93 ______________42 _ 70 _ 12 ____ 124 ____ 06 _ 62 _ 66 ____ 134 _____ 258 Provisional scoring for western and all nine contests, June 2017 FORECASTER _____________ DEN_PHX_SEA ____ TOTAL _________ All nine ( = rank ) blazess556 ______________ 100 _ 66 _ 96 _______ 262 ____________ 704 ( = 4 ) Damage in Tolland _________80 _ 90 _ 90 _______ 260 ____________ 534 ( =17 ) so_whats_happening _______96 _ 68 _ 92 _______ 256 ____________ 710 ( = 1 ) Stebo ___________________100 _ 70 _100 _ 270 Stebo _____ (-6%) ________ 94 _ 66 _ 94 _______ 254 ____________ 648 ( = 6t) BKViking _________________92 _ 68 _ 92 _______ 252 ____________ 708 ( = 2 ) Roger Smith ______________70 _ 70 _100 _______ 240 ____________ 580 ( =15 ) Consensus _______________ 92 _ 58 _ 90 _______ 240 ____________ 668 ( = 5 ) wxallannj ________________ 94 _ 64 _ 74 _______ 232 ____________ 706 ( = 3 ) RodneyS ________________100 _ 56 _ 70 _______ 226 ____________ 610 ( =13 ) wxdude64 ________________80 _ 50 _ 92 _______ 222 ____________ 552 ( =16 ) SD ______________________70 _ 60 _ 80 _______ 210 ____________ 640 ( = 8 ) hudsonvalley21 ___________ 82 _ 54 _ 74 _______ 210 ____________ 656 ( = 5 ) Tom ____________________ 72 _ 48 _ 74 _______ 194 ____________ 622 ( =11 ) CCM ____________________ 54 _ 46 _ 90 _______ 190 ____________ 636 ( = 9 ) RJay ____________________ 50 _ 50 _ 90 _______ 190 ____________ 630 ( =10 ) H2OTown__Wx ___________ 42 _ 56 _ 88 _______ 186 ____________ 648 ( = 6t) dmillz25 _________________ 80 _ 50 _ 50 _______ 180 ____________ 614 ( =12 ) Neckbeard93 _____________ 88 _ 60 _ 28 _______ 176 ____________ 434 ( =18 ) DonSutherland.1 __________ 40 _ 36 _ 74 _______ 150 ____________ 590 ( =14 ) Normal __________________ 50 _ 30 _ 70 _______ 150 ____________ 590 ( =14t )
  6. Anomaly tracker with predictions based on NWS 7 day and GFS beyond that, now appearing every third day to 27th ... BOS CF6 not updated 22nd-24th but daily climate reports indicate +7.7 for the three day period, estimated value through 24th is +2.2. _______________________ DCA _NYC _BOS ____ ORD _ATL _IAH ____ DEN _PHX _SEA _______ (7d) __________ --0.1 _--5.3 _--5.3 __ +3.9 _+1.0 _--1.1 ___ +1.6 _+4.9 _+4.0 ______ (10d) __________ --0.8 _--4.2 _--3.3 __ +4.8 _+0.1 _--2.1 ___ +3.9 _+4.1 _+2.0 ______ (15d) __________ +2.1 __ 0.0 _+0.7e__ +7.4 _+0.7 _--1.0 ___ +3.4 _+1.4 _+0.7 ______ (18d) __________ +2.6 _--0.1 _--0.1e__ +7.2 _+0.5 _--0.2 ___ +3.7 _+1.6 _+0.5 ______ (21d) __________ +2.7 _+0.5 _+1.4e__ +6.0 _+0.1 _+0.1 ___ +4.3 _+2.9 _+0.7 ______ (24d) __________ +2.8 _+1.0 _+2.2e__ +5.5 _+0.1 _+0.1 ___ +3.1 _+3.5 _+1.4 _____ (p 30d) __________+2.0 _ +0.5 _+1.5 __+3.5 _--0.5 __ 0.0 ___ +2.5 _+3.5 _+1.5 Max only 52 on 6th at BOS. Probably colder in 1816 though (snowed then). Then 95 on two days within a week. Highs near 120 predicted this week for PHX. Seasonal max contest is being updated back in the May thread, I plan to move it into the July thread when that's underway.
  7. Table of entries -- North Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane seasonal contest Note: Contest Normal is 14 8 3 based on 1989 to 2016 data but is adjusted to incorporate pre-season Arlene in April, this maintains the monthly values of Contest Normal. Consensus is the mean of forecasts from American Weather Forum participants and does not include outside agencies listed, or Normal. Any forecasts received without complete data are assigned representative values for scoring purposes. These are marked with asterisks. Contest rules allow you to submit revised monthly forecasts before any month begins without penalty. You are not stuck with these monthly forecasts but you are stuck with the seasonal forecast (as of June 7th table creation). Later forecasts are accepted but we have started the late penalty countdown of one point per day, which means no point in entering past July 27th when seasonal points (50) would be reduced to zero. Note: sent Kurzov a message as their seasonal and monthlies are out of sync, in any case they have to end of June to provide updated monthlies from July to Nov-Dec. However, nobody is required to have monthlies that add up to a seasonal so these will play if not adjusted. I did edit July which reads 1/2/0 in the entry, to 2/2/0. Update _ have verified the completed forecast for pcbjr by pm. FORECASTER _______ Season __ APR __JUN __JUL __ AUG __ SEP __ OCT__NOV-DEC Kurzov _____________22 8 2 ____1 0 0 _ 1 1 0 _ 2 2 0 _ 3 2 1 _ 3 0 0 _ 2 1 1 _ 1 0 0 Windspeed _________21 11 5 ___ 1 0 0 _ 2 1 0 _ 3 2 0 _ 4 2 0 _ 6 4 3 _ 4 2 2 _ 1 0 0 Roger Smith ________19 13 6 ___ 1 0 0 _ 1 1 0 _ 2 1 0 _ 4 3 1 _ 5 4 3 _ 4 3 2 _ 2 1 0 Kalasea ____________18 13 6 ___ 1 0 0 _ 1 0 0 _ 4 2 1 _ 2 2 1 _ 3 2 1 _ 4 4 3 _ 3 3 0 rockchalk83 ________ 18 10 5 ___ 1 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 2 1 1 _ 4 3 1 _ 6 4 2 _ 4 2 1 _ 1 0 0 dmillz25 ____________17 7 3 ____1 0 0 _ 2 0 0 _ 3 1 0 _ 4 2 1 _ 6 4 2 _ 2 0 0 _ 0 0 0 Stebo ______________16 9 4 ____1 0 0 _ 2 0 0 _ 3 2 1 _ 4 3 1 _ 4 2 1 _ 2 1 1 _ 1 1 0 NJwx85 ____________ 16 9 3 ___ 1 0 0 _ 1 0 0 _ 2 1 0 _ 3 2 1 _ 5 4 2 _ 3 2 0 _ 1 0 0 NCforecaster89 ______ 16 8 3 ___ 1 0 0 _ 1 0 0 _ 2 1 0 _ 4 2 1 _ 5 4 1 _ 2 1 1 _ 1 0 0 Consensus* _________ 16 8 3 ___ 1 0 0 _ 1 0 0 _ 2 1 0 _ 3 2 1 _ 4 3 2 _ 3 2 1 _ 1 0 0 Ser Pounce __________15 9 3 ___ 1 0 0 _ 1 0 0 _ 2 1 0 _ 4 3 1 _ 5 3 2 _ 2 2 0 _ 0 0 0 Contest Normal ______ 15 8 3 ___ 1 0 0 _ 1 0 0 _ 1 0 0 _ 4 2 1 _ 5 3 1 _ 3 2 1 _ 0 0 0 RJay _______________ 15 8 3 ___ 1 0 0 _ 1 0 0 _ 2 1 0 _ 4 3 1 _ 4 3 2 _ 2 1 0 _ 1 0 0 NWLinnCountyIA _____ 15 6 3 ___ 1 0 0 _ 1 0 0 _ 1 0 0 _ 4 2 1 _ 4 2 1 _ 3 2 1 _ 1 0 0 Matt Petrulli _________ 15 6 2 ___ 1 0 0 _ 1 0 0 _ 2 1 0 _ 4 2 1 _ 5 2 1 _ 2 1 0 _ 0 0 0 ..... NHC (mid-range) __14 7 3 ___ 1 0 0 _ 1 0 0 _ 1 0 0 _ 3 2 1 _ 5 3 1 _ 3 2 1 _ 0 0 0 Yoda _______________13 8 3 ___ 1 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 2 1 0 _ 3 2 0 _ 4 3 2 _ 3 2 1 _ 0 0 0 ldub23 _____________ 13 8 3 ___ 1 0 0 _ 1 0 0 _ 1 1 0 _ 3 2 1 _ 5 3 2 _ 2 2 0 _ 0 0 0 radarman ___________ 12 5 2 ___ 1 0 0 _ 1 0 0 _ 2 1 1 _ 3 1 0 _ 3 2 1 _ 2 1 0 _ 0 0 0 pcbjr _______________ 11 5 2 ___ 1 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 2 1 0 _ 3 2 1 _ 4 2 1 _ 1 0 0 ..... CSU ____________ 11 4 2 ___ 1 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 1 0 0 _ 3 1 1 _ 4 2 1 _ 2 1 0 _ 0 0 0 ________________________________________________________________ * Consensus is derived from means for 17 forecasts not incl NHC, CSU, Normal, listed below to one decimal (rounded in table above) Mean _________ 16.0,8.4,3.4 _ 100 _ 1.0,0.2,0 _ 2.1,1.1,0.2 _ 3.4,2.2,0.8 _ 4.4,2.8,1.6 _ 2.8,1.6,0.8 _ 0.8,0.3,0
  8. To encourage a few more entries, and given that there seems to be little activity expected this week, the deadline will be extended to Tuesday June 6th at 23z. You could still enter after that but I will start assessing penalties at the following rates: seasonal will lose one point each day entered after June 6th and June monthly will move to the standard "portion of month elapsed" deduction which by 7th will be 20%. (this penalty will be waived for entries made before June 6th 23z -- note to any entrants already registered, you can edit your predictions up to that extended deadline, table of entries to be posted on June 7th from entries then placed in the thread. After reviewing how the last two contests went, I will use the same format as last year. Here's the simplified version of how to enter: 1. Enter your seasonal forecast (named storms / hurricanes / major hurricanes) in this thread before 06z June 1st, with 1% per day reductions in score for late entries. This portion of the contest is worth 50% of the total score but will also be tabulated in order of finish. Please note that in April, Tropical Storm Arlene made the count for 2017 1/0/0 before you even enter, so factor that into your prediction. Any storms that are named in May will also count towards the seasonal total but not the monthly portion of the contest. If you enter before a named storm is declared in May, either edit your post, or allow me to add the results of the named storm to your prediction (most people ensure that their seasonal forecast is the sum of their monthly forecasts). 2. If you want to enter a specific June forecast and other months later in the year, add those to your seasonal. Last year, I think all but one contestant entered all of their months in advance and one or two adjusted during the contest. One never entered any monthlies and was assigned a pro-rated version of the contest normal. NOV-DEC will count as one forecast, so you can enter monthlies for JUN, JUL, AUG, SEP, OCT and NOV-DEC. If you do not enter monthlies, you will be assigned provisional but fully-scoring estimates based on your seasonal weighted from this "contest normal" which is adjusted from last year which already had Alex and Bonnie, as Bonnie 2016 = Arlene 2017, the contest normal is set at last year's 16/8/3 minus 1/1/0 for Alex. The seasonal contest normal is set at 15/7/3. This is adjusted from the 1989-2016 average of 14/7/3. It will be adjusted again if necessary by whatever may happen later in May. _________________________ SEASON __ APR _ MAY _ JUN _ JUL _ AUG_ SEP _ OCT_ N-D Adjusted Normal 1989-2016____ 15_7_3 __ 100 _ 000__100__100__421__531__321__000 (note that N-D has an actual average of something like 0.4/0.1/0.01 so it rounds down to 000) Your assigned monthlies will be adjusted from these as required, and you will see them in the table of forecasts -- if your June forecast does not match the provisional then the other months will not be adjusted, so your monthlies might not add up. Some of you will probably want to enter each month like last year, and you only need to do that if you don't want to use the already posted provisional. 3. Then if you want to update your monthly forecasts to fit your own estimate, the table will change to reflect your forecasts, but future provisionals will continue to appear unchanged and your ongoing total may continue to be different from your seasonal as a result. There is no requirement for monthly entrants to match their seasonals and monthlies. There will not be any scoring adjustments available for seasonal updates, you can make them, but the contest will not award any different scores for them. 4. Seasonal forecasts are scored from a maximum of 50 points, reduced by the average of one point per error in each category plus that number squared. Example, you predict 11/6/2 and reality is 14/7/4. You then lose (3+9)/2 or 6 points for your named storms, (1+1)/2 or one point for your hurricanes and (2+4)/2 or 3 points for your major hurricanes. Your score is then 50-6-1-3 or 40. 5. Monthly forecasts are scored the same way as above from totals available of 4 (June), 6 (July), 12 (August), 16 (September), 10 (October) and 2 (Nov-Dec) except that June, July and Nov-Dec error reductions are divided by two (e.g., if the normal method would give you 3.0 out of 6.0 for July, the adjusted method gives you 4.5. Monthly forecasts that you submit are subject to 1% reductions for every 3h late (the deadline is 03z of 1st each month except for June 06z). These late penalties will be doubled as soon as a named storm exists in the month in question. The June deadline, however, may be extended slightly to encourage more entries unless named storms are imminent. Expect an absolute cutoff by end of June 3rd with penalties after that. The best entry method is to copy this template and add in your numbers (and name) User Name ___ Seasonal (xx/xx/x) __ APR 1/0/0 _ MAY 0/0/0 _ JUN x/x/x _ JUL x/x/x _ AUG x/x/x _ SEP x/x/x _ OCT x/x/x _ NOV-DEC x/x/x FAQ _ Should I include any May named storm in my seasonal forecast? __ Yes, you are basically forecasting the normal season plus the count for May (which is currently 0/0/0) and you should also include Arlene (1/0/0) from April 2017. What if there's a named storm in May after I enter? __ If you don't edit in that change, I will edit it into your forecast by adding 1/0/0 to your seasonal forecast; if you want to stay at the original prediction despite the May storm and your monthly forecasts as submitted, edit in that request. Nothing gets tabulated until June 4th. What if I (or the NWS) forecast a range? __ The contest will take the median of your various ranges and score those only. If you want to give decimals, we'll score from those. What if I report on a forecast from elsewhere? __ Unless you are involved in making that forecast, then we'll score it but it won't count in the standings. If you are involved in it and want to enter it, make it clear that it's your personal entry. What month does each named storm belong to? __ In this contest, each named storm belongs to whatever month it was first named in (according to the NWS conventions as to time zones etc). Then whatever that storm goes on to do will belong to that same month. So for example, a tropical storm named on Aug 31 will count in the August forecast for all of its exploits as a hurricane or major hurricane in September. The timing of any given storm receiving a number but not a name is irrelevant to the contest. As with last year, where there was one storm that had its hurricane phase in a different month than its tropical storm phase, an alternate scoring table was posted and the same entry won either way. _______________________________________________________________ Good luck. Defending champ is Ohiowx. In 2015 it was Troy1234 with Stebo the winner in 2014. CSU forecast is 11/4/2. I will assign some monthly values to that one scaled down from contest normals. The NHC forecast will be entered as well, when I get the details.
  9. <<< --- FINAL REPORT on SNOWFALL CONTEST 2016-17 --->>> The first table is the assumed final standings showing total errors to date. Errors in red represent forecasts that are higher than actual amounts, and where errors could increase with any further snow (the season officially ends June 30, only DEN has any chance of snow in June and current models suggest very little chance, in fact, no snow fell in May there.) Errors in black are cases where you haven't reached your predicted value yet and these errors could decrease (until you do reach your target). Your total error is shown in the last column. This table will still be updated whenever snow falls at DEN but nobody is within 7" of using up their DEN forecasts so we can assume this table is a final report even if these numbers all change slightly. Meanwhile, the second table is the table of forecasts from November. FORECASTER ____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ___ TOTAL error ___ Amount to date _______ 3.4 _ 30.2 _ 47.6 ___ 26.1 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 19.4 __ 0.0 _ 11.2 Mercurial ________________13.1" _ 1.8" _ 2.5" __ 24.2" _ 0.0" _ 0.0" ___ 13.4" _ 0.0" _ 2.3" ____57.3 RodneyS ________________ 7.7" _12.1"_22.5" ___ 9.0" _ 0.0" _ 0.0" ____ 7.3" _ 0.0" _ 4.1" ____ 62.7 Maxim__________________ 19.2" _ 9.0" _ 2.5" ___ 3.9" _ 1.5" _ 0.0" ___ 25.9" _ 0.0" _ 2.2" ____ 64.2 hudsonvalley21 ___________16.4" _ 0.7" _ 4.7" __ 20.3" _ 0.4" _ 0.0" ___ 30.2" _ 0.0" _ 0.1" ____ 65.7 BTRwx ___________________9.1" _ 6.2" _ 5.6" __ 18.9" _ 0.3" _ 0.0" ___ 26.2" _ 0.0" _ 0.2" ____66.5 Consensus ______________ 14.8" _ 2.9" _ 3.0" __ 15.8" _ 1.0" _ 0.0" ___ 28.3" _ 0.0" _ 2.2" ___ 68.0 Normal ______________12.0"_ 4.4"_ 3.8" __ 10.2"_2.9"_0.1" __ 32.0" _0.0"_4.4" ___ 69.8 wxallannj _______________ 19.3" _ 1.0" _ 5.6" ___ 9.9" _ 5.7"__ 0.2" ___ 25.5" _ 0.0" _ 3.4" ____ 70.6 Damage in Tolland _______ 11.6" _ 4.8" _24.4" __ 16.9" _ 1.0" _ 0.0" ____ 8.2" _ 0.0" _ 7.2" ___ 74.1 Stebo ___________________14.9" _ 2.4" _ 7.7" __ 22.6" _ 0.8" _ 0.0" ___ 26.4" _ 0.0" _ 1.3" ____ 76.1 BKViking ________________12.6" __9.8" _ 9.4" ___ 6.9" _ 2.0" _ 0.0" ___ 33.4" _ 0.0" _ 2.2" ___ 76.1 RJay ___________________ 13.6" _ 4.8" _12.4" ___ 8.9" _ 1.0" _ 0.0" ___ 38.2" _ 0.0" _ 1.2" ___ 80.1 Midlo Snow Maker ________ 14.6" _ 4.8" _17.4" __ 18.9" _ 3.0" _ 0.0" ___ 26.2" _ 0.1" _ 2.2" ___ 87.2 SD _____________________ 9.6" _ 9.2" _12.6" __ 13.9" _ 1.0" _ 0.0" ___ 43.2" _ 2.0" _ 1.2" ____92.7 dmillz25 ________________ 13.6" _ 8.8" _ 5.4" __ 24.9" _ 2.0" _ 0.0" ___ 39.2" _ 0.0" _ 2.2" ___ 96.1 Mallow _________________ 29.6" _12.3" _ 3.5" __ 14.6" _ 1.5" _ 0.0" ___ 33.7" _ 0.0" _10.1"___105.3 wxdude64 _______________16.5" _ 0.6" _ 6.5" __ 30.6" _ 2.7" _ 0.5"___ 55.7" _ 0.0" _ 6.4" ____119.5 DonSutherland.1 _________ 18.1" _ 1.5" _14.3" __ 18.8" _ 1.8" _ 0.0" ___ 57.7"_ 0.0" _ 7.4" ____119.6 Tom ___________________ 18.7" _ 6.6" _17.0" __ 31.8"_ 0.9" _ 0.0" ___ 41.3" _ 0.0" _ 5.8" ____122.1 Roger Smith _____________ 32.3"_18.4" _27.5" __ 13.7" _ 2.0" _ 0.1" ___ 26.2" _ 0.0" _ 4.3" ____125.5 _______________________________________________________________________________________________ Actual forecasts FORECASTER ____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA RodneyS ________________11.1" _18.1" _25.1" __ 35.1" _ 0.0" _ 0.0" ___ 29.1" _ 0.0" _ 7.1" BTRwx _________________ 12.5" _24.0" _42.0" __ 45.0" _ 0.3" _ 0.0" ___ 48.0" _ 0.0" _11.0" SD _____________________13.0" _21.0" _35.0" __ 40.0" _ 1.0" _ 0.0" ___ 65.0" _2.0" _10.0" Damage in Tolland ________15.0" _35.0" _72.0" __ 43.0" _ 1.0" _ 0.0" ___ 30.0" _ 0.0" _ 4.0" Normal ______________15.4"_25.8"_43.8" __ 36.3"_2.9"_0.1" __ 53.8" _0.0"_6.8" BKViking ________________16.0" _40.0" _ 57.0" __ 33.0" _ 2.0" _ 0.0" ___ 55.0" _ 0.0" _ 9.0" Mercurial ________________16.5" _28.4" _45.1" __ 50.3" _ 0.0" _ 0.0" ___ 35.2" _ 0.0" _ 8.9" RJay ___________________ 17.0" _35.0" _60.0" __ 35.0" _ 1.0" _ 0.0" ___ 60.0" _ 0.0" _10.0" dmillz25 ________________ 17.0" _39.0" _53.0" __ 51.0" _ 2.0" _ 0.0" ___ 61.0" _ 0.0" _ 9.0" Midlo Snow Maker ________ 18.0" _35.0" _65.0" __ 45.0" _ 3.0" _ 0.0" ___ 48.0" _ 0.1" _ 9.0" Consensus ______________ 18.2" _33.1" _50.6" __ 41.9" _ 1.0" _ 0.0" ___ 50.1" _ 0.0" _ 9.0" Stebo ___________________18.3" _27.8" _39.9" __ 48.7" _ 0.8" _ 0.0" ___ 48.2" _ 0.0" _12.5" hudsonvalley21 ___________19.8" _30.9" _42.9" __ 39.3" _ 0.4" _ 0.0" ___ 52.0" _ 0.0" _11.1" wxdude64 _______________19.9" _30.8" _41.1" __ 56.7" _ 2.7" _ 0.5"___ 77.5" _ 0.0" _ 4.8" DonSutherland.1 _________ 21.5" _31.7" _61.9" __ 44.9" _ 1.8" _ 0.0" ___ 79.5"_ 0.0" _ 3.8" Tom ___________________ 22.1" _36.8" _64.6" __ 57.9"_ 0.9" _ 0.0" ___ 63.1" _ 0.0" _ 5.4" Maxim__________________ 22.6" _39.2" _50.1" __ 30.0" _ 1.5" _ 0.0" ___ 47.7" _ 0.0" _13.4" wxallannj _______________ 22.7" _31.2" _42.0" __ 36.0" _ 5.7"_ 0.2" ___ 47.3" _ 0.0" _ 7.8" Mallow _________________ 33.0" _42.5" _51.1" __ 40.7" _ 1.5" _ 0.0" ___ 55.5" _ 0.0" _ 1.1" Roger Smith _____________ 35.7"_49.0"_75.5"__ 40.0" _ 2.0" _ 0.1" ___ 48.0" _ 0.0"_15.5"
  10. For the regular temperature forecast contest in May, predict the anomalies in F deg relative to 1981-2010 normal values at DCA _ NYC _ BOS ____ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA (late penalties after 06z May 1st at 1% per 2h to 18z May 2 and then 1% per hour) Also, regular entrants can add seasonal max forecasts any time before May 15, a separate table will be developed from those predictions after May 15 so no requirement to repost, just edit them in if you want. Anyone who wants to enter just the seasonal max contest is welcome to do so in this thread before end of May 15th.
  11. Table of forecasts June 2017 FORECASTER _____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA CCM ____________________ +3.5 _+3.0 _+2.1 ___+3.5 _+1.8 _+0.8 ____+0.2 _+0.8 _+1.0 blazess556 _______________ +2.3 _+1.8 _+1.2 ___+2.1 _+1.7 _+2.4 ____+2.5 _+1.8 _+1.3 so_whats_happening _______+2.1 _+1.6 _+1.1 ___+2.3 _+1.8 _+2.2 ____+2.7 _+1.9 _+1.1 dmillz25 _________________ +2.0 _+1.5 _+1.2 ___+1.5 _+2.5 _+2.0 ____+1.5 _+1.0 _--1.0 wxallannj ________________ +1.8 _+1.5 _+1.7 ___+1.5 _+1.2 _+1.2 ____+2.8 _+1.7 _+2.8 H2OTown__Wx ___________ +1.5 _+1.2 _+1.4 ___+2.2 _+3.0 _+0.8 ____--0.4 _+1.3 _+0.9 Stebo ___ (-6%) __________ +1.5 _+0.5 _--0.5 ___+1.0 _+1.5 _+2.0 ____+2.5 _+2.0 _+1.5 BKViking _________________ +1.1 _+1.4 _+1.3 ___+1.5 _+0.8 _+1.9 ____+2.9 _+1.9 _+1.1 SD ______________________+1.0 _+0.5 __ 0.0 ___+0.5 _+1.0 _+1.5 ____+1.0 _+1.5 _+0.5 Consensus ________________ +0.8 _+0.5 _+0.2 ___+0.8 _+1.5 _+1.4 ____+2.1 _+1.4 _+1.0 Tom ____________________ +0.6 _+0.4 _+0.2 ___+0.5 _+1.5 _+0.8 ____+1.1 _+0.9 _+0.2 hudsonvalley21 ___________ +0.5 _+0.3 _+0.3 ___+1.0 _+0.5 _+1.3 ____+1.6 _+1.2 _+0.2 Roger Smith ______________ +0.5 _--0.2 _--0.8 ___--1.3 _+1.5 _+1.7 ____+4.0 _+2.0 _+1.5 DonSutherland.1 __________ +0.3 _+0.3 _+0.1 ___--0.4 _+0.1 _--0.2____--0.5 _+0.3 _+0.2 RJay _____________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 Normal ___________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 wxdude64 ________________ --0.4 _--0.7 _--0.8 ___--1.6 _+1.0 _+1.1 ____+1.5 _+1.0 _+1.9 RodneyS _________________ --0.5 _+0.1 _--0.8 ___--1.0 _+0.4 _+0.2 ____+2.5 _+1.3 __ 0.0 Damage in Tolland _________ --0.5 _--1.4 _--2.0 ___--0.3 _+2.0 _+2.1 ____+3.5 _+3.0 _+2.0 Neckbeard93 ______________--0.9 _--1.0 _--2.9 ___--1.2 _+1.4 _+1.7 ____+3.1 _+1.5 _--2.1 ___________________________________________________________ With 18 forecasts, consensus is mean of 9th and 10th ranked (median).
  12. NWS mid-range of forecast will be 14/7/3, fairly similar to our contest normal although they use a 30-year normal and say this would be above normal. I will leave the contest open for entries until there is some action so feel free to edit your posts, I am not making a table until at least Sunday June 4th.
  13. +0.5 __ --0.2 __ --0.8 ___ --1.3 __ +1.5 __ +1.7 ___ +4.0 __ +2.0 __ +1.5
  14. Extreme Forecast Update In May we had five stations qualifying for an extreme forecast (either the most extreme scores high points or second most extreme wins) and two others that were close to qualifying. This brings the annual count to 30 out of 45 possible extreme forecasts. >>> May summary <<< DCA __ At --0.5, a win for H2OTown_Wx (--0.7). NYC __ At --1.3, will also be a win for H2OTown_Wx (--1.0). BOS __ --1.6 a win for wxallannj with lowest forecast of --1.2). ORD __ At --1.2 does not qualfiy, as there are forecasts of --1.9 (Neckbeard93) and --1.8 (Damage in Tolland), also --1.3 (RodneyS) which is high score. ATL __ At +1.0 does not qualify, as too close to our average forecast. IAH __ --0.6 does not qualify, DonS (--1.0) and blazess556 (--1.1) both have lower scores than Stebo (--0.5). DEN __ --1.2 a win for Stebo (--1.0) and a loss for Neckbeard93 (--1.9). PHX __ --0.3 a win for so_whats_happening (--0.3) and a loss for Stebo, at --0.5. SEA __ +1.9 this does not quite qualify with forecasts of +3.1, +2.0 and two at +1.9, third highest forecasts with highest scores. UPDATED TABLE OF EXTREME FORECASTS (wins and losses) RJay _____________ 7-0 DonSutherland1 ____ 5-1 Prestige Worldwide __3-0 H2OTown__Wx ____ 2-0 Maxim ____________ 2-0 Wxdude64 _________ 2-0 Dmillz25 ___________2-0 Wxallannj __________2-0 so_whats_happening _2-0 Roger Smith _______ 1-0 RodneyS __________ 1-0 Danger in Tolland ___ 1-0 Normal ____________1-0 Stebo _____________1-2 Neckbeard93 _______ 1-1 ____________________________________________ .
  15. Hello, dropping into all regional forums to mention that there is a 2017 tropical season forecast over at Tropical Headquarters. Entries are welcome into early June without penalty. This is where to go if you're interested ... http://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50014-2017-north-atlantic-tropical-storm-hurricane-forecast-contest/ Thanks.
  16. Hello, dropping into all regional forums to mention that there is a 2017 tropical season forecast over at Tropical Headquarters. Entries are welcome into early June without penalty. This is where to go if you're interested ... http://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50014-2017-north-atlantic-tropical-storm-hurricane-forecast-contest/ Thanks.
  17. Hello, dropping into all regional forums to mention that there is a 2017 tropical season forecast over at Tropical Headquarters. Entries are welcome into early June without penalty. This is where to go if you're interested ... http://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50014-2017-north-atlantic-tropical-storm-hurricane-forecast-contest/ Thanks.
  18. Hello, dropping into all regional forums to mention that there is a 2017 tropical season forecast over at Tropical Headquarters. Entries are welcome into early June without penalty. This is where to go if you're interested ... http://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50014-2017-north-atlantic-tropical-storm-hurricane-forecast-contest/ Thanks.
  19. Hello, dropping into all regional forums to mention that there is a 2017 tropical season forecast over at Tropical Headquarters. Entries are welcome into early June without penalty. This is where to go if you're interested ... http://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50014-2017-north-atlantic-tropical-storm-hurricane-forecast-contest/ Thanks.
  20. Hello, dropping into all regional forums to mention that there is a 2017 tropical season forecast over at Tropical Headquarters. Entries are welcome into early June without penalty. This is where to go if you're interested ... http://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50014-2017-north-atlantic-tropical-storm-hurricane-forecast-contest/ Thanks.
  21. Hello, dropping into all regional forums to mention that there is a 2017 tropical season forecast over at Tropical Headquarters. Entries are welcome into early June without penalty. This is where to go if you're interested ... http://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50014-2017-north-atlantic-tropical-storm-hurricane-forecast-contest/ Thanks.
  22. Hello, dropping into all regional forums to mention that there is a 2017 tropical season forecast over at Tropical Headquarters. Entries are welcome into early June without penalty. This is where to go if you're interested ... https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50014-2017-north-atlantic-tropical-storm-hurricane-forecast-contest/ Thanks.
  23. Hello, dropping into all regional forums to mention that there is a 2017 tropical season forecast over at Tropical Headquarters. Entries are welcome into early June without penalty. This is where to go if you're interested ... https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50014-2017-north-atlantic-tropical-storm-hurricane-forecast-contest/ Thanks.
  24. It means you had high score for the western contest in those months, although provisional for May so that one could go elsewhere if (given your closest two chasers) PHX were to finish a bit higher. Missing the one month hurts but you can always look at average score, that would move you up in the west from 15th to 2nd, and in the eastern-central from 17th to 15th.
  25. <<< ---=--- 2017 Annual Scoring Summary (Jan-May) ---=--- >>> ... ... ... ... ... ... ... (see post 26 for May scoring) ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... Best scores: The first six numbers refer to the six locations, the last two refer to eastern and central division totals. Months won (in this part of the contest) are shown by name after the number codes. There are sometimes ties so the totals may add up higher than the number of months. Meanwhile, best total scores Jan-May are highlighted in red in the table for six locations, and in bold italic for two groups and for all six. FORECASTER _________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east___ORD_ATL_IAH__cent___TOTAL__Best scores 1 DonSutherland.1 _____225 _200 _194 __619___280 _274 _301__855___1474 _001.111..1.2_ Jan, May 2 blazess556 __________207 _227 _234__668___250 _251 _247 __748 ___1416 __001.000 3 RJay _______________190 _229_224 __643 ___213 _264 _283__760 ___1403__122.200..2..2_Feb,Apr 4 BKViking ____________170 _186 _200__556 ___201 _265 _212 __678 ___1234 __000.001 5 dmillz25 ____________164 _169 _172 __505 ___202 _250 _254 __706 ___1211 __100.101 6 Consensus __________158 _156 _167 __481 ___196 _265 _263 __724 ___1205 6 Damage in Tolland ____145 _155 _162 __462 ___236 _247 _236 __719 ___1181 __000.010..0.0 7 wxallannj ___________ 167 _170 _202 __539 ___115 _255 _262 __632 ___1171 __001.011 8 Stebo ______________ 159 _153 _160 __472 ___150 _278_232 __660 ___1132 __000.001 9 RodneyS ____________166 _120 _116 __402 ___223 _207 _293 __723 ___1125 __011.200..0..1 _ Mar 10 wxdude64 __________ 215 _140 _167 __522 ___202 _203 _178 __583 ___1107 __110.000..1.0 11 H2Otown_WX ________175 _182 _196 __543 ___118 _239 _199 __556 ___1099 __110.001..1.0 12 hudsonvalley21 ______ 155 _139 _150 __444 ___190 _248 _211 __653 ___1097 __000.010 13 Tom _______________ 183 _151 _153 __487 ___162 _220 _213 __595 ___1082 __000.100 14 SD _________________174 _157 _163 __494 ___204 _193 _184 __581 ___1075 15 Normal _____________ 198 _155 _154 __507 ___179 _112 _144 __ 435 ___ 942 ____010.000.0.0 ___ May 15 Neckbeard93*_________60 _ 72 _ 95 __227 ___238 _180 _200 __618 ___ 845 16 Roger Smith _________ 86 _ 93 _ 50 __229 ___126 _100 _229 __539 ___ 768 17 so_whats_happening#__99 _ 77 _ 80 __256 ____62 _170 _153 __385 ___ 641 18 Prestige Worldwide@__111 _107_123 __ 341 ___ 25 _140 _118 __283 ___ 624 __110.010 19 Maxim@______________80 _ 85 _ 78 __243 ___ 50 _150 _142 __342 ___ 585 __100.001 ________________________________________________________________________________ Updated annual scoring for western and all nine contests Jan-May 2017 FORECASTER _________DEN_PHX_SEA___TOTAL___Best scores___All nine ( = rank )__Months 1 Rjay _______________ 288 _364 _413___1065 __ 1 0 1 _ Jan ____ 2468 ( = 2) ___ FEB, APR 2 Roger Smith _________243 _319 _442 ___1004 __ 0 0 1_ Feb ____ 1772 (= 15) 3 DonSutherland.1 _____ 333 _363 _302 ___ 998 __ 2 0 0 __________2472 ( = 1) ___JAN, MAY 4 H20TownWx _________325 _302 _363 ___ 990 __ 0 0 1 __________ 2089 ( = 7) 5 wxallannj ___________ 244 _375 _366 ___ 985 __ 0 1 1 __________2156 ( = 5) 6 Consensus ___________255 _347 _380 ___ 982 __ 1 0 0 _________ 2187 ( = 5) 6 dmillz25 ____________ 260 _305 _414 ___ 979 __ 1 0 1 _ Apr _____ 2190 ( = 4) 7 Tom _______________ 187 _359 _394 ___ 940 _________________ 2022 ( =10) 8 RodneyS ____________240 _375 _310 ___ 925 __ 0 1 0 __________ 2050 ( = 9) ___ MAR 9 BKViking ____________195 _310 _402 ___ 907 _________________ 2141 ( = 6) 10 Damage in Tolland ____200 _322 _367 ___ 889 __ 0 0 1 __________2070 ( = 8) 11 SD_________________ 252 _307 _304 ___ 863 ________________ 1938 ( = 13) 12 wxdude64 ___________219 _298 _324 ___ 841 ________________ 1948 ( = 11) 13 hudsonvalley21 ______ 199 _298 _330 ___ 827 ________________ 1924 ( = 14) 14 Normal _____________ 232 _272 _322 ___ 826 ________________ 1768 ( = 16) 14 Stebo _____________ 217 _280 _314 ____ 811 __ 1 0 0 __________ 1943 ( = 12) 15 so_whats_happening#_221_297 _290 ____ 808 __ 0 2 0 _ Mar,May _1449 ( = 16) 16 blazess556 _________ 242 _293 _270 ____ 799 __________________2215 ( = 3) 17 Neckbeard93* _______ 293 _ 187 _107 ___ 587 __ 2 0 0 __________ 1432 (= 17) 18 Prestige Worldwide@__ 159 _223 _170 ___ 552 __ 0 1 0 ___________ 1176 ( = 18) 19 Maxim@ ____________ 161 _133 _176 ___ 440 __________________ 1055 (= 19) _______________________________________________________________________ NOTES: * one month missed (Jan). # one month missed (Apr) @ two months missed (Mar, Apr) Jan late penalty for Blazess556 total of 2, (0,2) March late penalty deductions: ... Rjay lost 41 (22,19), Damage lost 18 (13,5) and wxdude64 lost 14 (12,2). April late penalty deductions: ... H2O_Town__wx lost 51 (25,26) and Neckbeard93 lost 32 (14,18). May late penalty deductions: ... BKViking lost 32 (20, 12). __ ranks for Consensus and Normal do not affect ranks of lower scoring forecasters.