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Roger Smith

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  1. No worries, you can keep this contest going if you want of course, and you can enter that other one too. I think I said 19/13/6 over there and I expect to be on the high side.
  2. After reviewing how the last two contests went, I will use the same format as last year. Here's the simplified version of how to enter: 1. Enter your seasonal forecast (named storms / hurricanes / major hurricanes) in this thread before 06z June 1st, with 1% per day reductions in score for late entries. This portion of the contest is worth 50% of the total score but will also be tabulated in order of finish. Please note that in April, Tropical Storm Arlene made the count for 2017 1/0/0 before you even enter, so factor that into your prediction. Any storms that are named in May will also count towards the seasonal total but not the monthly portion of the contest. If you enter before a named storm is declared in May, either edit your post, or allow me to add the results of the named storm to your prediction (most people ensure that their seasonal forecast is the sum of their monthly forecasts). 2. If you want to enter a specific June forecast and other months later in the year, add those to your seasonal. Last year, I think all but one contestant entered all of their months in advance and one or two adjusted during the contest. One never entered any monthlies and was assigned a pro-rated version of the contest normal. NOV-DEC will count as one forecast, so you can enter monthlies for JUN, JUL, AUG, SEP, OCT and NOV-DEC. If you do not enter monthlies, you will be assigned provisional but fully-scoring estimates based on your seasonal weighted from this "contest normal" which is adjusted from last year which already had Alex and Bonnie, as Bonnie 2016 = Arlene 2017, the contest normal is set at last year's 16/8/3 minus 1/1/0 for Alex. The seasonal contest normal is set at 15/7/3. This is adjusted from the 1989-2016 average of 14/7/3. It will be adjusted again if necessary by whatever may happen later in May. _________________________ SEASON __ APR _ MAY _ JUN _ JUL _ AUG_ SEP _ OCT_ N-D Adjusted Normal 1989-2016____ 15_7_3 __ 100 _ 000__100__100__421__531__321__000 (note that N-D has an actual average of something like 0.4/0.1/0.01 so it rounds down to 000) Your assigned monthlies will be adjusted from these as required, and you will see them in the table of forecasts -- if your June forecast does not match the provisional then the other months will not be adjusted, so your monthlies might not add up. Some of you will probably want to enter each month like last year, and you only need to do that if you don't want to use the already posted provisional. 3. Then if you want to update your monthly forecasts to fit your own estimate, the table will change to reflect your forecasts, but future provisionals will continue to appear unchanged and your ongoing total may continue to be different from your seasonal as a result. There is no requirement for monthly entrants to match their seasonals and monthlies. There will not be any scoring adjustments available for seasonal updates, you can make them, but the contest will not award any different scores for them. 4. Seasonal forecasts are scored from a maximum of 50 points, reduced by the average of one point per error in each category plus that number squared. Example, you predict 11/6/2 and reality is 14/7/4. You then lose (3+9)/2 or 6 points for your named storms, (1+1)/2 or one point for your hurricanes and (2+4)/2 or 3 points for your major hurricanes. Your score is then 50-6-1-3 or 40. 5. Monthly forecasts are scored the same way as above from totals available of 4 (June), 6 (July), 12 (August), 16 (September), 10 (October) and 2 (Nov-Dec) except that June, July and Nov-Dec error reductions are divided by two (e.g., if the normal method would give you 3.0 out of 6.0 for July, the adjusted method gives you 4.5. Monthly forecasts that you submit are subject to 1% reductions for every 3h late (the deadline is 03z of 1st each month except for June 06z). These late penalties will be doubled as soon as a named storm exists in the month in question. The June deadline, however, may be extended slightly to encourage more entries unless named storms are imminent. Expect an absolute cutoff by end of June 3rd with penalties after that. The best entry method is to copy this template and add in your numbers (and name) User Name ___ Seasonal (xx/xx/x) __ APR 1/0/0 _ MAY 0/0/0 _ JUN x/x/x _ JUL x/x/x _ AUG x/x/x _ SEP x/x/x _ OCT x/x/x _ NOV-DEC x/x/x FAQ _ Should I include any May named storm in my seasonal forecast? __ Yes, you are basically forecasting the normal season plus the count for May (which is currently 0/0/0) and you should also include Arlene (1/0/0) from April 2017. What if there's a named storm in May after I enter? __ If you don't edit in that change, I will edit it into your forecast by adding 1/0/0 to your seasonal forecast; if you want to stay at the original prediction despite the May storm and your monthly forecasts as submitted, edit in that request. Nothing gets tabulated until June 4th. What if I (or the NWS) forecast a range? __ The contest will take the median of your various ranges and score those only. If you want to give decimals, we'll score from those. What if I report on a forecast from elsewhere? __ Unless you are involved in making that forecast, then we'll score it but it won't count in the standings. If you are involved in it and want to enter it, make it clear that it's your personal entry. What month does each named storm belong to? __ In this contest, each named storm belongs to whatever month it was first named in (according to the NWS conventions as to time zones etc). Then whatever that storm goes on to do will belong to that same month. So for example, a tropical storm named on Aug 31 will count in the August forecast for all of its exploits as a hurricane or major hurricane in September. The timing of any given storm receiving a number but not a name is irrelevant to the contest. As with last year, where there was one storm that had its hurricane phase in a different month than its tropical storm phase, an alternate scoring table was posted and the same entry won either way. _______________________________________________________________ Good luck. Defending champ is Ohiowx. In 2015 it was Troy1234 with Stebo the winner in 2014. CSU forecast is 11/4/2. I will assign some monthly values to that one scaled down from contest normals. The NHC forecast will be entered as well, when I get the details.
  3. Please note, there is a tropical discussion forum (in the menu at "home") and a 2017 contest in that forum. Link: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50014-2017-north-atlantic-tropical-storm-hurricane-forecast-contest/#comment-4558320
  4. I just edited the instructions so that instead of NAME it now says USERNAME which is what I meant there, you folks who revealed your actual names should edit them out (not a requirement just a suggestion). Sorry about the confusion on that. My forecast will be Roger Smith ___ 19 13 6 ___ 100 _ 000 _ 110 _ 210 _ 431 _ 543 _ 432 _ 210 _
  5. Provisional scoring for May 2017 Rather early but in case you're wondering how the current provisionals score (see previous post), these would be the scores ... expect some ongoing changes as this table is edited each time a provisional changes. Scores at this point are fairly close and Tom leads this portion of the contest. FORECASTER __________ DCA_NYC_BOS ___east____ ORD_ATL_IAH ___ cent ____ TOTAL Tom ___________________98 _ 96 _ 98 ____292 ____ 68 _ 98 _ 76 ____ 242 _____ 534 SD ____________________ 90_100_ 90 ____ 280 ____ 80 _100_ 70 ____ 250 _____ 530 Consensus ______________96 _ 96 _ 96 ____ 288 ____ 64 _ 98 _ 74 ____ 236 _____ 524 RodneyS _______________ 86 _ 92 _ 98 ____ 276 ____ 84 _ 50 _100____ 234 _____ 510 CCM ___________________96 _100 _ 86 ____ 282 ____ 60 _ 96 _ 70 ____ 226 _____ 508 dmillz25 ________________92 _ 94 _100____ 286 ____ 30 _100_90 ____ 220 _____ 506 Stebo __________________96 _ 90 _100____ 286 ____ 40 _ 96 _ 80 ____ 216 _____ 502 wxdude64 ______________ 96 _ 92 _ 88 ____ 276 ____ 76 _ 88 _ 54 ____ 218 _____ 494 blazess556 ______________84 _ 96 _ 92 ____ 272 ____ 96 _ 52 _ 68 ____ 216 _____ 488 BKViking _______________ 98 _ 96 _ 92 ____ 286 ____ 70 _ 94 _ 74 ____ 238 __ 524 ___________ (-6%) ______ 92 _ 90 _ 86 ____ 268 ____ 66 _ 88 _ 70 ____ 224 _____ 492 DonSutherland.1 _________ 80 _ 92 _ 90 ____ 262 ____ 92 _ 56 _ 70 ____ 218 _____ 480 Normal _________________70 _ 80 _ 80 ____ 230 ____ 90 _ 60 _ 90 ____ 240 _____ 470 wxallannj _______________96 _ 92 _ 56 ____ 244 ____ 48 _ 96 _ 78 ____ 222 _____ 466 hudsonvalley21 __________ 90 _ 78 _ 74 ____ 242 ____ 56 _ 88 _ 70 ____ 214 _____ 456 so_whats_happening _____ 74 _ 78 _ 94 ____ 246 ____ 48 _ 90 _ 72 ____ 210 _____ 456 neckbeard93 ____________ 78 _ 86 _ 98 ____ 262 ____ 72 _ 50 _ 64 ____ 186 _____ 448 Damage in Tolland _______ 80 _ 80 _ 58 ____ 218 ____ 74 _ 90 _ 60 ____ 224 _____ 442 RJay ___________________80 _ 70 _ 80 ____ 230 ____ 30 _ 88 _ 60 ____ 178 _____ 408 H2OTown__WX __________ 56 _ 60 _ 62 ____ 178 ____ 62 _ 94 _ 74 ____ 230 _____ 408 Roger Smith ____________ 60 _ 72 _ 80 ____ 212 ____ 54 _ 60 _ 70 ____ 184 _____ 396 Provisional scoring for May 2017, western and all nine contests FORECASTER _________ DEN_PHX_SEA ______ TOTAL _______ All nine ( = rank ) Normal ________________ 90 _100 _ 70 _______260_________ 690 (= 11) RodneyS _______________60 _ 96 _98 _______254 _________764 ( = 1 ) so_whats_happening ____ 58 _ 94 _ 98 _______ 250 _________ 696 (= 10) Roger Smith ___________ 54 _ 96 _ 94 _______ 244 _________ 640 (= 15) H2OTown__WX _________ 84 _ 78 _ 80 _______ 242 _________ 650 ( = t13) DonSutherland.1 ________ 92 _ 94 _ 50 _______ 236 _________ 716 (= 7 ) blazess556 _____________94 _ 90 _ 48 _______ 232 _________ 720 (= 6 ) Consensus _____________ 58 _ 80 _ 92 _______ 230 _________ 754 ( = 2) hudsonvalley21 _________52 _ 88 _ 88 _______ 228 _________ 684 ( = 11) SD ___________________ 80 _ 80 _ 60 _______ 220 _________ 750 ( = t2) dmillz25 _______________60 _ 80 _ 80 _______ 220 _________ 726 ( = 4 ) Stebo _________________90 _ 90 _ 40 _______ 220 _________ 722 ( = 5 ) Tom __________________ 48 _ 78 _ 90 _______ 216 _________750 ( = t2) BKViking ______________ 42 _ 80 _100 _ 222 ___________ (-6%) _____ 39 _ 75 _ 94 _______ 208 _________ 700 (= 9 ) CCM __________________ 66 _ 60 _ 68 _______ 194 _________ 702 (= 8 ) RJay __________________ 30 _ 70 _ 92 _______ 192 _________ 600 (= t17) wxallannj ______________ 36 _ 54 _ 94 _______ 184 _________ 650 (= t13) wxdude64 _____________ 50 _ 58 _ 72 _______ 180 _________ 674 ( = 12) Damage in Tolland _______30 _ 40 _ 92 _______ 162 _________ 604 (= 15) neckbeard93 ___________ 82 _ 32 _ 38 _______ 152 _________ 600 (= t17) ____________________________________________________ (ranks of consensus and normal do not affect ranks of lower scoring forecasters, or each other). Annual update will follow around 25th, so far it looks like the race might be tightening up as most of the higher scores this month come from the middle of the pack.
  6. For the regular temperature forecast contest in May, predict the anomalies in F deg relative to 1981-2010 normal values at DCA _ NYC _ BOS ____ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA (late penalties after 06z May 1st at 1% per 2h to 18z May 2 and then 1% per hour) Also, regular entrants can add seasonal max forecasts any time before May 15, a separate table will be developed from those predictions after May 15 so no requirement to repost, just edit them in if you want. Anyone who wants to enter just the seasonal max contest is welcome to do so in this thread before end of May 15th.
  7. Anomaly tracker will be updated for 18, 21, 24, 27, 30 and 31 days. Earlier reports can be found two posts back. ^^ _______________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ____ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA __________ (18d) _______ --0.5_ --0.6_ --0.4 ____ --1.0_ +1.2_ --1.2 ____ +1.8_ --1.6_ --0.7 __________ (21d) _______ +0.1_ --0.2_ --0.1 ____ --1.9_ +1.9_ --0.3 ____ --0.4_ --1.8_ +0.2 __________ (p28d) ______ +0.7_ +0.5_ +0.4 ____ --1.5_ +1.5_ +0.5 ____ --0.8_ --0.7_ +0.9 __________ (p31d) ______ +1.5_ +1.0_ +1.0 ____ --0.5_ +2.0_ +0.5 ____ --0.5__ 0.0_ +1.5 Record highs of 92 and 95 in BOS on 17th-18th. 92 at NYC on 18th.
  8. Two months to go in the close-run 2016 temperature forecast contest(s) ... and time for our bonus snowfall contest for the same nine locations used in the temperature contest. For the temperatures, submit anomalies (in F deg) from 1981-2010 normal values, for these locations: DCA __ NYC __ BOS ___ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX ___ SEA deadlines for entry to Nov temp contest, 06z Tuesday Nov 1st, 1% penalty per 2h late for first 36h, then 1% per hour For the snowfall bonus contest, enter your predicted total amounts for the 2016-17 season including any snow that has fallen at time of entry (so far zero but thread will update actual amounts, season ends June 30 but contest usually declared by early May). Contest is based on smallest total error for the nine locations. You can enter as late as Nov 18th (end of day in EST) and you can edit submitted forecasts as the table of entries won't be drawn up until Nov 19th. Note that if you do edit snowfalls after Nov 1st at 06z, temperatures cannot be edited without a late penalty, and a table of entries for temperature forecasts has already appeared; unless I have made a verifiable typo in my table, the table freezes your temperature forecasts. Then the later snowfall table of entries freezes your snowfall entries. This would be a good time to jump in and join our contests as the 2017 contest year actually starts with Dec 2016 in the four seasons portion (the main contest however runs Jan to Dec 2017). We will also welcome any stand-alone snowfall forecasts if you'd like to enter only the winter snowfall contest. So place your forecasts for winter 2016-17 total snowfalls for the same nine stations listed above. (PHX fails to register snowfall 80% of all winters). Your forecast can be to the precision of 0.1" as measured. Good luck in both of these contests.
  9. It's sort of like when everybody could see the Patriots would lose the Super Bowl at half time. (it's half time, wait and see)
  10. Prediction -- line of supercells will form rather late in a bowed line DDC - SPS and peak around 03z when into s/c KS to western OKC. Activity may reach F3-5 intensity. Cells will remain severe well past 06z ICT-TUL-DFW.
  11. Ontario and se MI, later n OH likely to see scattered severe storms and F1 tornado potential from developing Lake Huron squall line linking to developing cold front across Lake Michigan. London to Hamilton ON north to Stratford to Orangeville suggested tornado watch box (19z-22z).
  12. Mesoscale complex seems likely across n IL, se WI, nw IN and sw MI tonight.
  13. Seasonal Maxima for 2017 contest -- Table of entries Normal will sit this one out and consensus is the average rather than the median this time. Once this table appears, your entries are set, and have been cross-checked for accuracy of posting. Forecasts appear in the order of DCA then if tied, NYC and if still tied, BOS etc. "To date" will be continuously updated, and shows the highest value of 2017 so far. FORECASTER ____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ____ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA SD _____________________ 104 _ 100 __ 97 ______ 96 _ 103 _ 107 ______ 96 _ 116 __ 92 DonSutherland.1 __________ 103 _ 101 _ 100 ______ 99 _ 100 _ 106 ______ 97 _ 117 __ 87 blazess556 _______________ 103 _ 101 _ 100 ______ 98 _ 101 _ 107 ______ 98 _ 118 __ 88 RJay ____________________ 103 _ 100 __ 98 _____ 103 _ 102 _ 103 _____ 100 _ 118 __ 95 Tom ____________________ 102 __ 99 __ 97 _____ 104 _ 104 _ 102 _____ 101 _ 117 __ 96 so_whats_happening _______102 __ 99 __ 96 ______ 98 _ 101 _ 100 ______ 97 _ 120 __ 94 Roger Smith ______________102 __ 97 __ 98 ______ 99 _ 101 _ 108 _____ 110 _ 120 _ 100 dmillz25 _________________ 101 _ 100 __ 99 _____ 102 _ 102 _ 103 ______ 99 _ 119 __ 95 Neckbeard93 _____________ 101 _ 100 __ 98 ______ 96 _ 102 _ 103 ______ 98 _ 118 __ 89 Consensus (average) _______101 __ 99 __ 97 ______ 99 _ 101 _ 104 _____ 100 _ 118 __ 93 hudsonvalley21 ___________ 101 __ 99 _ 100 _____ 104 _ 101 _ 101 ______ 98 _ 120 __ 98 Stebo ___________________ 101 __ 99 __ 96 _____ 101 __ 99 _ 104 _____ 100 _ 117 __ 92 BKViking _________________101 __ 98 __ 97 ______ 99 __ 99 _ 100 _____ 102 _ 117 __ 96 Damage in Tolland _________100 __ 99 __ 98 _____ 100 __ 98 _ 102 ______ 99 _ 118 __ 92 wxdude64 ________________100 __ 99 __ 97 ______ 97 _ 100 _ 103 _____ 100 _ 118 __ 94 CCM ____________________ 100 __ 97 __ 97 ______ 95 _ 100 _ 103 _____ 102 _ 119 __ 93 RodneyS __________________98 __ 97 __ 97 ______ 97 __ 99 _ 104 ______ 98 _ 116 __ 92 H2O_Town__Wx ___________ 98 __ 96 __ 92 _____ 100 _ 103 _ 106 ______ 95 _ 118 __ 87 wxallannj _________________ 97 __ 97 __ 95 ______ 98 _ 100 _ 103 _____ 103 _ 117 __ 94 Max to date ___________ 93 __ 92 __ 95 ____ 87 __ 90 __ 91 ____ 86 _ 108 _ 83
  14. Early reports after five, ten, twelve and fifteen days ... ____________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ________ (5d) _______ +4.6_ +1.1_ --2.4 ___ --6.8_ --2.9_ --3.2 ___ --2.3e_+6.7_ +2.8 ________ (10d) ______ --0.7_ --2.3_ --2.8 ___ --6.6_ --2.4_ --3.3 ___ +2.8_ --0.2_ +2.1 ________ (12d) ______ --2.0_ --2.7_ --3.3 ___ --5.5_ --1.2_ --2.3 ___ +2.5_ --0.2_ +1.1 ________ (15d) ______ --2.3_ --3.5_ --4.0 ___ --3.4_ --0.3_ --2.2 ___ +3.6_ --0.2_ --0.1 ________ (p22d) _____ +1.5_ +1.0_ +0.5 ___ +0.2_ +1.9__ 0.0 ___ +1.2_ --1.5_ +0.4 ________ (p31d) _____ +0.5__ 0.0__ 0.0 ___ --0.5_ +2.0_ +1.0 ___ +0.5_ --1.0_ +1.5 ... next update after 18 days in a new post. Phoenix 108 F on 5th, then only 74 F on 8th.
  15. I was waiting to see if this contest thread would appear; as we are now very close to November, I decided to post a contest thread. Hope nobody minds ... it will be exactly the same as last winter even the tie-breakers are the same. Post your predictions of total winter snowfall (including anything already recorded -- season ends officially June 30th, contest will probably run to mid-May at latest) for these 20 locations. I have included the 1986-2015 averages as provided last year, and last season's snowfalls. (note Nov 15, apparently I posted the average of last year's forecasts rather than the 1986-2015 averages, this mistake has been corrected below, on average the forecasts were 90% of the normals, check your forecasts to see if you want to make any changes -- the deadline has been extended to Friday night Nov 18th.) Three tie-breaker questions follow. LOCATION _______________ 1986-2015 _____ 2015-16 Alpena, MI (APN) _____________ 80.4 _______ 88.8 Chicago, IL (ORD) ____________ 38.1 _______ 31.2 Cleveland, OH (CLE) __________ 67.2 _______ 32.8 Columbus, OH (CMH) __________28.4 _______ 17.1 Detroit, MI (DTW) _____________ 44.8 _______ 35,3 Fort Wayne, IN (FWA) _________ 34.0 _______ 20.0 Grand Rapids, MI (GRR) _______ 77.1 _______ 61.1 Green Bay, WI (GRB) __________ 54.2 _______ 50.0 Indianapolis, IN (IND) __________ 25.9 _______ 13.3 La Crosse, WI (LSE) __________ 46.1 ________ 40.3 London, ON (YXU) ____________75.7 ________ 65.2 Louisville, KY (SDF) __________ 13.9 ________ 14.9 Marquette, MI (MQT) _________199.8 _______ 160.9 Milwaukee, WI (MKE) _________ 49.2 ________ 39.1 Minneapolis, MN (MSP) _______ 50.6_________ 36.7 Moline, IL (MLI) _____________ 33.5 _________ 24.1 Paducah, KY (PAH)___________ 9.2 _________ 12.1 Peoria, IL (PIA) _____________.24.9 _________ 15.3 St. Louis, MO (STL) _________ 18.4 _________ 10.9 Toronto, ON (YYZ) __________ 42.5 _________ 25.9 ------------------------------- --------------------------------------- --------------------------------------- ENTRY FORM APN __ ORD __ CLE __ CMH __ DET __ FWA __ GRR __ GRB __ IND __ LSE __ YXU __ SDF __ MQT __ MKE __ MSP __ MLI __ PAH __ PIA __ STL __ YYZ __ Tiebreakers 1. December 2016 snowfall ORD (8.5" normal) 2. January 2017 snowfall IND (8.6" normal) 3. February 2017 snowfall DTW (10.2" normal) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- If you want to see individual years in the 1986-2015 period, check last year's contest thread (recently bumped to top of page), post number one there has a table of the 30 years in the period used. Entries will be accepted until end of the day Friday, Nov 18th (2359 CST). You can edit entries before that time as the table of entries will be done on Nov 19th (using an excel table format). Good luck !! Late entries (Nov 19 to 30) will be scored but cannot place higher than 6th, enter for the fun of it if you want though. Entries that appear in the thread after Nov 30 will not be scored.
  16. Additional snowfalls in May MQT 0.9" on 2nd, total now 154.0 contest total now 726.4" ... contest summaries have been updated
  17. The contest is more or less finished, I believe, although further snowfall at MQT is likely this month. The table in the previous post shows the totals at all stations at the end of April. Previous posts show the contest standings and a few other factoids, and it can be seen that contest leader Slow Poke has a lead (in terms of total error amounts) of almost 80" over nearest pursuer Buffalo Weather. They both have small amounts left to "use up" at MQT after which third place Ontario snow lover would start gaining on both of them as that forecaster has a lot more left to use up. So the contest essentially hinges on how much further snow will fall at MQT, since I would imagine that all other locations have probably finished for their seasons (APN, GRB and one or two others could conceivably add small amounts). Any further snowfalls will be reported in a new post and the previous post is retired to capture the end of April status, but rather than an entire new table, I will just show MQT and contest totals as they change, adding any other stations that report new snowfalls. The season runs to June 30th at which point the contest will be final. I don't know if MQT has recorded any June snowfalls in recent years, they do happen in northern Ontario from time to time.
  18. Table of forecasts for May 2017 FORECASTER ____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Roger Smith ____________ +3.5_ +2.4_ +2.0 ___ +1.8_ +4.0_ +2.0 ___ +1.8_ +0.2_ +1.8 so_whats_happening _____ +2.8_ +2.1_ +1.3 ___ +2.1_ +2.5_ +1.9 ___ +1.6_ --0.3_ +1.4 neckbeard93 ____________ +2.6_ +1.7_ +1.1 ___ --1.9_ --0.5_ +2.3 ___ --1.4_ +3.4_ --1.6 RJay ___________________+2.5_ +2.5_ +2.0 ___ +3.0_ +2.6_ +2.5 ___ +3.0_ +1.5_ +1.9 hudsonvalley21 __________ +2.0_ +2.1_ +2.3 ___ +1.7_ +1.4_ +2.0 ___ +1.9_ +0.6_ +0.9 SD ____________________ +2.0_ +1.0_ +0.5 ___ +0.5_ +2.0_ +2.0 ___ +0.5_ +1.0_ --0.5 dmillz25 ________________+1.9_ +1.3_ +1.0 ___ +3.0_ +2.0_ +1.0 ___ +1.5_ +1.0_ +0.5 Stebo __________________+1.7_ +1.5_ +1.0 ___ +2.5_ +1.8_ --0.5 ___ --1.0_ --0.5_ --1.5 wxdude64 ______________ +1.7_ +1.4_ +0.4 ___ +0.7_ +2.6_ +2.8 ___ +2.0_ +2.1_ +0.1 Consensus ______________+1.7_ +1.2_ +0.8 ___ +1.3_ +1.9_ +1.8 ___ +1.6_ +1.0_ +1.1 BKViking ___ (-6%) ______ +1.6_ +1.2_ +0.6 ___ +1.0_ +1.7_ +1.8 ___ +2.4_ +1.0_ +1.5 Tom ___________________+1.4_ +1.2_ +0.9 ___ +1.1_ +1.9_ +1.7 ___ +2.1_ +1.1_ +2.0 CCM ___________________+1.3_ +1.0_ +0.3 ___ +1.5_ +1.8_ +2.0 ___ +1.2_ +2.0_ +3.1 wxallannj _______________+1.3_ +0.6_ --1.2 ___ +2.1_ +2.2_ +1.6 ___ +2.7_ +2.3_ +1.2 RodneyS ________________+0.8_ +0.6_ +1.1 ___ --1.3_ --0.5_ +0.5 ___ +1.5_ +0.2_ +1.4 blazess556 ______________ +0.7_ +0.8_ +0.6 ___ --0.7_ --0.4_ --1.1 ___ --0.2_ +0.5_ --1.1 DonSutherland.1 _________+0.5_ +0.6_ +0.5 ___ --0.9_ --0.2_ --1.0 ___ --0.1_ +0.3_ --1.0 Damage in Tolland _______ +0.5__ 0.0_ --1.1 ___ --1.8_ +2.5_ +2.5 ___ +3.0_ +3.0_ +1.9 Normal __________________0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 H2OTown__WX ___________--0.7_ --1.0_ --0.9 ___ +1.4_ +1.7_ +2.8 ___ +0.3_ +1.1_ +0.5 With 18 forecasts (plus Normal) the median for Consensus is average of 9th and 10th ranked forecasts. Highest and lowest forecasts are color coded, and when Normal is lowest, it changes color to purple from its usual green. This month we have a few below normal forecasts for each location. Also, welcome to CCM. ... The seasonal max forecasts will be tabulated on the 16th, feel free everyone to edit or add your forecasts by end of 15th, I won't be gathering these until the 16th so no particular need to mention an edit. As to the forecasts, those are already cross-checked now they are in a table.
  19. All scoring has been updated except for DCA as they are late reporting a final anomaly. My provisional of +7.0 is not likely to change much, and as that's outside our forecast range, the scores won't change except slightly for anyone above +1.8, so check back but don't expect more than a ripple of 1-2 point changes here and there. (edit May 2nd) _ The tables were upgraded to final as DCA just reported in with +7.0 (CLM document confirms this). Snowfall contest was recently updated in the March thread, and a final report will appear in the May thread.
  20. As always, predict the anomalies in F deg relative to 1981-2010 normals at DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH _____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA Deadline is 06z April 1st, penalties run at 1% every 2 hours late (to 18z Apr 2nd) and thereafter it would be 1% an hour. Good luck!
  21. I think that the snowfall season at DEN usually ends in May but I would count anything in June, technically snowfall seasons run from July 1st to June 30th so the contest ends June 30th. There is a recent update and report on scoring in the March thread (updated yesterday). As all contest entrants have at least 7" DEN snow unused, no changes in scoring rank can occur unless we see more than that, and actually it would take about 20" more to make any significant changes. I assume all other stations are done for the season, BOS and ORD have had measurable snowfalls in May.
  22. +3.5 __ +2.4 __ +2.0 ____ +1.8 __ +4.0 __ +2.0 ____ +1.8 __ +0.2 __ +1.8 102 ___ 97 ____ 98 ______ 99 ____ 101 ___ 108 _____ 110 ___ 120 ___ 100
  23. <<< ---=--- 2017 Annual Scoring Summary (Jan-Apr) ---=--- >>> ... ... ... ... ... ... ... (see post 22 for April scoring) ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... Best scores: The first six numbers refer to the six locations, the last two refer to eastern and central division totals. Months won (in this part of the contest) are shown by name after the number codes. Example, RJay had best scores for NYC, BOS and ORD (in April) and also for the eastern and central totals in April, and is high score for April. There are sometimes ties so the totals may add up higher than the number of months. Meanwhile, best total scores Jan-Apr are highlighted in red in the table for six locations, and in bold italic for two groups and for all six. FORECASTER _________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east___ORD_ATL_IAH__cent___TOTAL__Best scores 1 RJay _______________150 _205_196__551 ___197 _196 _245__638__1189__122.200..2..2_Feb,Apr 2 DonSutherland.1 _____145 _138 _136 __419___186 _198 _209 __593 ___1012 __001.111..1..1 _ Jan 3 blazess556 __________131 _169 _178 __478 ___160 _179 _157 __496 ___ 974 __001.000 4 dmillz25 ____________112 _121 _124 __357 ___186 _170 _186 __536 ___ 899 __100.101 5 BKViking ____________115 _139 _147__401 ___148 _184 _163 __495 ___ 896 __000.001 6 Consensus __________102 _106 _115 __323 ___146 _183 _211 __540 ___ 863 6 hudsonvalley21 ______ 105 _107 _128 __340 ___152 _156 _163 __471 ___ 811 7 wxallannj ___________ 103 _108 _110 __321 ___ 81 _179 _206 __466 ___ 787 __000.011 8 wxdude64 __________ 159 _114 _107 __360 ___140 _133 _150 __423 ___ 783 __110.000..1.0 9 Stebo ______________ 103 _109 _112 __324 ___124 _194 _134 __452 ___ 776 10 Damage in Tolland ____ 65 _ 81 _ 72 __218 ___ 148 _177 _198 __ 523 ___ 741 __000.010 11 Tom ________________121 _101 _103 __325 ___108 _138 _159 __405 ___ 730 __000.100 12 SD _________________124 _103 _105 __332 ___138 _113 _136 __387 ___ 719 13 RodneyS _____________ 92 _ 58 _ 70 __220 ___125 _137 _215 __477 ___ 697 __011.100..0..1 _ Mar 14 H2Otown_WX ________ 79 _ 88 _100 __267 ___ 70 _153 _167 __390 ___ 657 __000.001 15 Prestige Worldwide@__111 _107_123 __ 341 ___ 25 _140 _118 __283 ___ 624 __110.010 16 Maxim@______________80 _ 85 _ 78 __243 ___ 50 _150 _142 __342 ___ 585 __100.001 17 Roger Smith __________66 _ 67 _ 22 __155 ___ 86 _144 _181 __411 ___ 566 18 Neckbeard93*_________22 _ 32 _ 49 __103 ___152 _110 _158 __420 ___ 523 19 Normal ____________108 _ 81 _ 86 __275 ___103 _ 32 _ 56 __ 191 ___ 466 ___010.000 19 so_whats_happening@__65 _ 45 _ 38 __148 ___ 28 _100 _103 __231 ___ 379 ________________________________________________________________________________ Updated annual scoring for western and all nine contests Jan-Feb 2017 FORECASTER _________DEN_PHX_SEA___TOTAL___Best scores___All nine ( = rank )__Months 1 Rjay _______________272 _300 _313___ 885 __ 1 0 0 _ Jan _____2074 ( = 1) ___ FEB, APR 2 wxallannj ___________222 _327 _280 ___ 829 __ 0 1 1 __________1616 ( = 5) 3 dmillz25 ____________ 214 _231 _342 ___ 787 __ 1 0 1 _ Apr ____ 1686 (= 3) 4 DonSutherland.1 _____ 255 _275 _260 ___ 790 __ 2 0 0 __________1802 ( = 2) ___ JAN 5 Consensus ___________213 _269 _298 ___ 780 __ 1 0 0 _________ 1639 ( = 4) t5 Roger Smith _________203 _229 _344 ___ 776 __ 0 0 1 _ Feb _____1342 ( = 15) t5 H20TownWx _________255 _230 _291 ___ 776 __ 0 0 1 __________1433 ( = 11) 7 Damage in Tolland ____184 _288 _267 ___ 739 _________________ 1480 ( = 7) 8 Tom ________________153 _287 _296 ___ 736 _________________1466 ( = 9) 9 BKViking ____________169 _240 _316 ___ 725 _________________ 1621 ( = 4) 10 RodneyS ____________194 _285 _220 ___ 699 __ 0 1 0 _________ 1396 ( =12) ___ MAR 11 wxdude64 ___________183 _246 _260 ___ 689 ________________ 1472 ( = 8) 12 SD_________________186 _233 _252 ___ 671 _________________ 1390 ( = 13) 13 hudsonvalley21 ______ 161 _216 _250 ___ 627 ________________ 1438 ( = 10) 14 blazess556 __________152^_209^_234__ 595 ________________ 1569 ( = 6) 15 Normal _____________ 156 _178 _260 ___ 594 ________________1060 ( = 18) 15 Stebo ______________121 _184 _282 ___ 587 _________________1363 ( =14) 16 so_whats_happening@_177_197 _200 ___ 574 __ 0 1 0 __ Mar ____ 953 ( = 19) 17 Prestige Worldwide@__ 159 _223 _170 ___ 552 __ 0 1 0 _________ 1176 ( = 16) 18 Maxim@ ____________ 161 _133 _176 ___ 440 _________________1055 (= 17) 19 Neckbeard93* _______ 197 _161 _ 77 ____ 435 __ 1 0 0 __________ 958 (= 18) _______________________________________________________________________ NOTES: * one month missed (Jan). @ one month missed (Apr) ^ one point deducted on these scores for Blazess556 (late in Jan) total of 2, (0,2) ... March late penalty deductions: ... Rjay lost 41 (22,19), Damage lost 18 (13,5) and wxdude64 lost 14 (12,2). ... April late penalty deductions: H2O_Town__wx lost 51 (25,26) and Neckbeard93 lost 32 (14,18). __ ranks for Consensus and Normal do not affect ranks of lower scoring forecasters.
  24. Extreme Forecast Update Oops, we did it again ... five more extreme forecasts qualified making it a total 25 out of 36 so far this year. DCA finished at +7.0, a win for the highest forecast of +3.0 (dmillz25). NYC finished at +4.2 with a win for RJay at +2.5. BOS finished at +3.5, another win for RJay with a forecast of +2.0. ORD finished at +4.8, that's another win for RJay at +4.0. ATL finished at +5.8, a win for Damage in Tolland (+3.0). IAH dropped out of contention and finished at +2.2. DEN also dropped out of contention with the finish of +1.5 close to consensus. PHX ifinished at +2.6, and the third highest forecast (+2.7, RodneyS) is high score, so not quite an extreme forecast. SEA was also won by the third highest forecast, finishing +0.3, and Dmillz25 with +0.5 had high score. UPDATED TABLE OF EXTREME FORECASTS (wins and losses) RJay _____________ 7-0 DonSutherland1 ____ 5-1 Prestige Worldwide __3-0 Maxim ____________ 2-0 Wxdude64 _________ 2-0 Dmillz25 ___________2-0 Wxallannj __________1-0 Roger Smith _______ 1-0 RodneyS __________ 1-0 Neckbeard93 _______ 1-0 Danger in Tolland ___ 1-0 so_whats_happening _1-0 Normal ____________1-0 Stebo _____________0-1 ____________________________________________
  25. Final scoring for April 2017 Scoring is based on provisional end of month anomalies in post 19 ... when these change, the scoring will also change. FORECASTER __________ DCA_NYC_BOS ___ east ___ ORD_ATL_IAH___cent____ TOTAL RJay ___________________ 30 _ 66 _ 70___ 166 ___84 _ 42 _ 94 ___ 220 _____386 dmillz25 ________________ 40 _ 46 _ 50 ___ 136 ___ 64 _ 32 _ 96 ___ 192 _____ 328 BKViking ________________ 15 _ 40 _ 38 ___ 093 ___ 64 _ 46 _ 96___ 206 _____ 299 wxdude64 _______________28 _ 38 _ 40 ___ 106 ___ 54 _ 34 _ 94 ___ 182 _____ 288 Damage In Tolland ________15 _ 26 _ 30 ___ 071 ___ 74 _ 52 _ 86___ 212 _____ 283 Consensus ______________ 16 _ 34 _ 40 ___ 090 ___ 56 _ 40 _ 94 ___ 190 _____ 280 blazess556 ______________ 19 _ 46 _ 64 ___ 119 ___ 60 _ 42 _ 50 ___ 152 _____ 271 Stebo __________________ 17 _ 42 _ 50 ___ 109 ___ 64 _ 46 _ 46 ___ 156 _____ 265 DonSutherland.1 __________14 _ 36 _ 44 ___ 094 ___ 32 _ 42 _ 80 ___ 154 _____ 248 Tom ___________________ 22 _ 42 _ 50 ___ 114 ___ 00 _ 40 _ 88 ___ 128 _____ 242 wxallannj ________________11 _ 30 _ 34 ___ 075 ___ 40 _ 26 _ 96___ 162 _____ 237 hudsonvalley21 ___________ 03 _ 30 _ 40 ___ 073 ___ 32 _ 32 _ 90 ___ 154 _____ 227 H2OTown__Wx ___________13 _ 30 _ 46 ___ 089 ___ 56 _ 32 _ 74 ___ 162 _ 251 __________ (-10%) _______12 _ 27 _ 41 ___ 080 ___ 50 _ 29 _ 67 ___ 146 _____ 226 RodneyS ________________ 16 _ 22 _ 30 ___ 068 ___ 00 _ 40 _ 86 ___ 126 _____ 194 SD _____________________ 10 _ 26 _ 30 ___ 066 ___ 14 _ 12 _ 86 ___ 112 _____ 178 Roger Smith______________20 _ 32 _ 06 ___ 058 ___ 24 _ 42 _ 44 ___ 110 _____ 168 Neckbeard93 _____________ 05 _ 06 _ 00 ___ 011 ___ 64 _ 32 _ 44 ___ 140 _ 151 _________ (-10%) ________ 05 _ 05 _ 00 ___ 010 ___ 58 _ 29 _ 40 ___ 127 _____ 137 Normal __________________ 00 _ 16 _ 30 ___ 046 ___ 04 _ 00 _ 56 ___ 060 _____ 106 Final scoring for western and all nine contests, April 2017 FORECASTER ____________ DEN_PHX_SEA ____ TOTAL _______ All nine (= rank) dmillz25 _______________100 _ 78_ 96___ 274 _________ 602 ( = 2 ) BKViking ________________ 92 _ 92 _ 82 ___ 266 _________ 565 ( = 3) wxdude64 _______________94 _ 86 _ 84 ___ 264 _________ 552 ( = 4 ) SD _____________________90 _ 88 _ 86 ___ 264 _________ 442 ( = 11) Consensus ______________ 98 _ 86 _ 80 ___ 264 _________ 544 ( = 5 ) Damage In Tolland ________86 _ 88 _ 84 ___ 258 _________ 541 ( = 5) DonSutherland.1 __________84 _ 92 _ 72 ___ 248 _________ 496 ( = 6 ) RJay ___________________100 _ 68 _ 74 ___ 242 _________628 ( = 1 ) wxallannj ________________72 _ 86 _ 80 ___ 238 _________ 475 ( = 7 ) RodneyS ________________ 82 _ 98 _ 52 ___ 232 _________ 426 ( =10 ) H2OTown__wx ___________ 96 _ 70 _ 86 _ 252 ___________ (-10%) ______ 86 _ 63 _ 77 ___ 226 _________ 452 ( = 9) Tom ____________________82 _ 86 _ 52 ___ 220 _________ 462 ( = 8 ) Normal _________________ 70 _ 48 _ 94 ___ 212 _________ 318 ( =16 ) hudsonvalley21 __________ 48 _ 66 _ 68 ___ 182 _________ 409 ( =13 ) Neckbeard93 ____________ 70 _ 42 _ 66 _ 178 ________ (-10%) ________ 63 _ 38 _ 59 ___ 160 _________ 297 ( =16 ) Roger Smith______________10 _ 76 _ 80 ___ 166 _________ 334 ( = 15) blazess556 ______________ 40 _ 36 _ 68 ___ 144 _________ 415 ( =12 ) Stebo __________________ 36 _ 32 _ 64 ___ 132 _________ 397 ( =14 )