Welcome to American Weather

Roger Smith

Members
  • Content count

    2,195
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by Roger Smith

  1. I'm in a good spot because of all the snow that's going to start falling in two weeks.
  2. First and only call 12" RIC 10" ORF 18-24" n/c to w NC sharp cutoff south of CLT-RDU-NC/VA border at Ocean, some places n/w CLT, RDU 10" 5-7" sw to central VA to Ocean City MD 2-4" DC to BAL (0.9" DCA of course) may remain 2-4" to PA border as elevation compensates for storm intensity
  3. January anomalies and projections ... next update on 19th for 18 days ... _______________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA _____ (5d) _____ +6.8 _ +6.5 _ +7.4 __ --1.8 _ +7.3 _ +5.3 __--10.9 _ --0.1 _--11.7 ____ (10d) _____ --1.8 _ --0.6 __ 0.0 __ --4.1 _ --0.9 _ --1.0 __ --7.0 _ +1.3 _ --9.0 ____ (12d) _____ +1.5 _ +2.8 _ +3.5e__--2.7 _ +2.2 _ +2.6 __ --5.3 _ +1.4 _ --9.2 ____ (15d) _____ +3.0 _ +3.3 _ +3.5 __--1.7 _ +5.9 _ +5.5 __ --4.5 _ +1.6 _ --9.0 ____ (18d) _____ +4.3 _ +3.9 _ +4.0 __+0.4 _ +8.2 _ +7.1 __ --3.4 _ +1.2 _ --7.3 ___ (p25d) _____ +6.0 _ +5.6 _ +5.7 __ +4.5 _+10.2_ +8.4 __ --1.3 _ --1.2 _ --3.7 ___ (p31d) _____ +4.0 _ +4.0 _ +4.0 __ +2.5 _ +7.0 _ +5.5 __ --1.0 _ --0.7 _ --2.3 Snowfall to date __ 0.4 __10.1 __14.2 ___ 18.1 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 17.7 __ 0.0 __ 4.0
  4. The 2017 Temperature forecast contest is underway. We will continue with the nine locations with the objective to forecast the monthly temperature anomaly in F deg relative to the 1981-2010 normal values for DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA Late penalties will be reduced for this first month only, as the New Years holiday and a weekend are rather intrusive. The normal penalties (which will return in other months) are 1% for every 2 hours late, after the deadline of 06z on the first day of the month; then, 1% for every hour late after 18z on 2nd. This month, you will only lose 1% for every 4 hours late (or fraction thereof) to 18z on January 3rd (which would be 15% at that point) then 1% additional per hour until 05z on 5th (50% total) and 2% per hour to 06z 6th to expire the penalties at about the usual time on the 6th. A few more entrants would be a good thing, this contest has gradually been reduced from about 25-30 regulars to 18-20. I posted some publicity about the contest in regional forums last month, hoping some noted the invitation for January rather than December, but if you spread the word in your sub-forum banter or equivalent thread, maybe that would be more effective than having a sub-forum outsider posting about the contest. One concept we could try out is a sub-forum contest ongoing within this overall contest, using best scores from each sub-forum. I would start that except that in some cases entrants here are not active in a sub-forum although I could assign them by location. That might get us a larger turnout.
  5. You can't be 100% sure from tags, but I think almost all of the top ten are non-mets technically speaking (identified as mets would be Mallow, who was in the top five or six, Blazess556, SD and Stebo). I think everyone knows that Don Sutherland has a solid amount of climatology background so probably he's by experience almost a meteorologist in terms of what he knows about the science behind long range forecasting (which, let's face it, is not all that much of a science). I could say the same thing minus the reputation for insight, and in fact I do make daily forecasts for an audience, just not paid to do so (nor is that audience in North America); although this year my finish was not very great at all, but I did manage to win this contest once. But I do follow weather patterns quite closely every day. I believe some of our regulars are long-time weather enthusiasts who have picked up most if not all of what there is to know about pattern recognition and then from there it's mostly your hunches, what do you think the second half of the month will be like? The first half is more or less a partially revealed "known quantity" although we would probably give a range of estimates, my guess is that the range would be about half what the monthly forecasts usually span. I kept seeing phantom cold outbreaks and going too low with my estimates, when I was right it would be a good score, but it didn't happen often enough to make it an advantage and it turned into a disadvantage. There is probably a random factor to all this although Don always seems to be near the top of these forecast contests so I really believe he has a bit of a demonstrated edge. I wish more mets would participate in this contest. It would be interesting to see what would happen in the scoring if let's say every active member of the forum participated. My guess is a completely random distribution. I do notice with the scoring that some people join in and get consistently better with time, they must be picking up ideas that work as they go along. In my case I seem to be going in the opposite direction. There is no sign of improvement over time, I would say, this year's average error and scoring looks about the same as any given year in the past five. A score of 500 in the original six or 250 in the west usually wins a month, and consensus is usually in the low 400s (or low 200s). It varies a little, the hardest months for scoring are the extreme outcomes and that is why I relaxed scoring for big anomalies, so anyone with half a clue about it would at least get some points. If we used the same scoring metric for every month, some recent winter months would have been a whole lot of zeroes and a few 10s and maybe a 20. I think the scoring method measures skill accurately but it is an approximation of a more detailed method; I tested it out and found it was about .95 correlation so as it's a lot easier to manage, I go with it. About the late penalties -- I hate them too, but I have to impose them. I think they represent 80% punishment and 20% score adjustment for actual advantage gained. I base that on how much (if any) improvement I can make on my own score when I project the anomalies from day 5 or day 10. Sometimes those projections gain 20-40 points; my own subjective bias is probably still working its way through but I would say that somebody who entered on the fourth or fifth (when we have very large penalties) probably has only a 10% points advantage from that late entry. That's why I provided a table of actual scores before penalties, so you could see how people really compare in skill, but I would say the exact comparison would need to be adjusted, maybe remove 20% of the returned points.
  6. The final month of the 2016 contest sees very close races in both the "original six" and western contests; Don Sutherland has a bit of a lead going into the all nine final roundup. See November thread for scoring updates, last time I looked it was a matter of a few points separating top thrree or four in both divisions. So the challenge for December is to predict the temperature anomaly (F deg) relative to 1981-2010 normal values for DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA This is also the first month of the 2016-17 "four seasons" portion of the forthcoming 2017 contest year. As a result, I am publicizing this forecast contest in all the regional threads. I am hoping to restore the numbers back to at least 30 forecasters, if you can think of any members of the forum who might enjoy this challenge, send them a PM with this link. Late penalties as always, 1% for every 2 hours or portion after the deadline to 18z 2nd, then increased to 1% per hour until we reach the expiration of scoring by 04z 6th. Scoring rules (for new entrants) -- each location is worth 100 points. You receive 2 point deductions for every 0.1 deg error. But if the actual value turns out to be 5.1 (pos or neg) or larger, points fall off at a rate of 1 point per 0.1 deg in two zones, 5.0 to actual, and a similar zone 0.0 to x.x -- example, if actual anomaly is 7.0, then one point scoring deduction zones are 0.0 to 2.0 and 5.0 to 7.0. Example of how this scores: you predict +4.5, the actual is +7.0. You lose ten points for being under +5.0 and a further twenty for the range 5.0 to 7.0 ... your score is 70. If you had predicted +8.0, your score would be 90. The contest year is the calendar year, but as noted above, there is a "four seasons" component, entrants receive points (10, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 1, 1) for a top ten finish each season. The 2017 contest year winter portion starts with this month, Dec 2016. The main contest is scored by the original six stations, the three western stations, and all nine. Scoring is provided as quickly as possible and from the foundation of provisional scoring near the end of the month based on projected anomalies as we track changes in the actual and forecast values. Scoring is usually updated by the end of the first day of the next month. We also track "extreme forecasts" which are those successful forecasts near the limits of the range of forecasts. You would be surprised how many months qualify for this, more than half since we started tracking this in 2014. That means that, on average, about six months out of ten will see a high score from either the extreme forecast or the second most extreme (those are the conditions for the month and forecasts to qualify).
  7. Currently thinking that the best snowfall opportunities will be Jan 27-28, Feb 9-10 and Feb 24-26. The pattern is not vastly different from what I was expecting but cold air is being wasted on the inter-mountain west (giving me snow) and so the flow is not troughing far enough east yet, it's not like a raging torch pattern but when cold comes it has nothing to fight against in such a low-amplitude wave pattern, developments at present are vaguely encouraging (very nice storm potential for se VA) but I wouldn't look for much to happen through mid-January until we get a bit of height building in the eastern arctic and Greenland. Thus I remain optimistic about a good snowfall total eventually, the prime period is being pushed back into the best six weeks in climatological terms (late January to early March) for east coast snowfall.
  8. The results of the contest as posted two posts back are now confirmed. The table in the post immediately before this one shows the results if contest rules awarded storms to months when their intensity levels first appeared. This would have changed the count for one storm (Hermine) which became a hurricane on September 1st. The contest rules awarded that to August. So this changed the alternate counts for August and September which exchanged one hurricane. Either way, the same three forecasters come out at the top of the scoring. Congratulations to Ohiowx, Andyhb, and wxmx for their top three performances. The best seasonal forecasts (for 15 7 3) were from the top two, Ohiowx (15 7 2) and Andyhb (15 6 3), as well as OHweather (15 8 3) who finished 7th overall. These all scored 49/50. Several others had scores above 45, well done. The top monthly forecasts (all issued in advance of the season, only one forecaster took the opportunity to revise any) came from the top three in the contest overall, Ohiowx had 43/50, Andyhb had 42.5 and wxmx had 41,5 ... each of them finished in the same order in the alternate method and had the three highest monthly forecast scores there as well, each of them 2 or 3 points higher. In fact, most of the field would score higher on the alternate method because of the way September turned out with just one other hurricane out of the five named storms. The alternate method does not fully go down the path of assigning storms to months, since you could argue that Hermine should be a named storm in September and Matthew various counts in October. Anyway, we have to choose one method and the all-in-the-first-named month method is what was used in this contest before I started scoring it in 2012. Hope everyone enjoyed the contest and look for the 2017 version to appear in May. Let's hope we don't have an Alex or May (was it Bonnie?) storm event to complicate matters, it would be great to have the contest open before the season starts. Roger over and out.
  9. (edit for Alex in January and Bonnie in May) After reviewing how the 2015 contest went, we will go with the same format as last year. Here's the simplified version of how to enter: 1. Enter your seasonal forecast (named storms / hurricanes / major hurricanes) in this thread before 06z June 1st, with 1% per day reductions in score for late entries. This portion of the contest is worth 50% of the total score but will also be tabulated in order of finish. Please note that in January, Alex reached hurricane status, the count after Bonnie as of late May 28th is already 2/1/0. Forecasts issued before May 28th and my post on that date will be reviewed to see if they need 1/1/0 added as we will go with the seasonal total that includes Alex. For the forecasts posted after May 28th, it will be assumed these include Alex. All seasonal forecasts will need to account for Bonnie as I think most have already done. 2. If you want to enter a specific June forecast, add it to your seasonal. If you want to pre-set your monthly forecasts for the entire season, add them all. NOV-DEC will count as one forecast, otherwise it would be JUN, JUL, AUG, SEP, OCT and NOV-DEC. If you do not enter monthlies, you will be assigned provisional but fully-scoring estimates based on your seasonal weighted from this "contest normal" which is adjusted from last year as we already have Alex, and we have now (as of May 29th) had the May storm (Ana 2015, Bonnie 2016) that we had to work around in 2015. Now that one has formed this year, the seasonal will go back to 16 8 3 and your seasonal forecast should account for Bonnie. Although last year was a lower total than the normal it did not bring down the averages enough to change them. _________________________ SEASON __ JAN _ MAY _ JUN _ JUL _ AUG_ SEP _ OCT_ N-D Adjusted Normal 1989-2015____ 16_8_3 __ 110 _ 100__100__100__421__531__321__000 Your assigned monthlies will be adjusted from these as required, and you will see them in the table of forecasts -- if your June forecast does not match the provisional then the other months will not be adjusted, so your monthlies might not add up. Some of you will probably want to enter each month like last year, and you only need to do that if you don't want to use the already posted provisional. 3. Then if you want to update your monthly forecasts to fit your own estimate, the table will change to reflect your forecasts, but future provisionals will continue to appear unchanged and your ongoing total may continue to be different from your seasonal as a result. There is no requirement for monthly entrants to match their seasonals and monthlies. There will not be any scoring adjustments available for seasonal updates, you can make them, but the contest will not award any different scores for them. 4. Seasonal forecasts are scored from a maximum of 50 points, reduced by the average of one point per error in each category plus that number squared. Example, you predict 11/6/2 and reality is 14/7/4. You then lose (3+9)/2 or 6 points for your named storms, (1+1)/2 or one point for your hurricanes and (2+4)/2 or 3 points for your major hurricanes. Your score is then 50-6-1-3 or 40. 5. Monthly forecasts are scored the same way as above from totals available of 4 (June), 6 (July), 12 (August), 16 (September), 10 (October) and 2 (Nov-Dec) except that June, July and Nov-Dec error reductions are divided by two (e.g., if the normal method would give you 3.0 out of 6.0 for July, the adjusted method gives you 4.5. Monthly forecasts that you submit are subject to 1% reductions for every 3h late (the deadline is 03z of 1st each month). These late penalties will be doubled as soon as a named storm exists in the month in question. The June deadline, however, may be extended slightly to encourage more entries unless named storms are imminent. Expect an absolute cutoff by end of June 3rd with penalties after that. FAQ _ Should I include any May named storm in my seasonal forecast? __ Yes, you are basically forecasting the normal season plus the 1/0/0 for May and you should also include Alex (1/1/0) from January 2016. What if I (or the NWS) forecast a range? __ The contest will take the median of your various ranges and score those only. If you want to give decimals, we'll score from those. What if I report on a forecast from elsewhere? __ Unless you are involved in making that forecast, then we'll score it but it won't count in the standings. If you are involved in it and want to enter it, make it clear that it's your personal entry. What month does each named storm belong to? __ Each named storm belongs to whatever month it was first named in (according to the NWS conventions as to time zones etc). Then whatever that storm goes on to do will belong to that same month. So for example, a tropical storm named on Aug 31 will count in the August forecast for all of its exploits as a hurricane or major hurricane in September. The timing of any given storm receiving a number but not a name is irrelevant to the contest. _______________________________________________________________ Good luck. Defending champ is Troy1234 with Stebo the winner in 2014.
  10. So, I scored the various Norms and ... the gains on Normal are shown, with ranking for just all nine where Normal finished behind all seventeen of the forecasters who entered every month ... FORECASTER _____________ EAST __ CENTRAL __ ORIGINAL SIX __ WESTERN ___ ALL NINE ___ RANK Norm +0.5 (all forecasts 0.5) __ 262 ____ 179 _______ 441 ________ 132 _____ 573 ___________ 18th Norm +1.0 (all forecasts 1.0) __ 428 ____ 344 _______ 772 ________ 259 _____1031 ___________ 14th Norm +1.5 (all forecasts 1.5) __ 511 ____ 469 _______ 980 ________ 344 _____1324 ___________ 13th Norm +2.0 (all forecasts 2.0) __ 561 ____ 556 _______1117 ________ 407_____1524 ____________ 9th Norm +2.5 (all forecasts 2.5) __ 533 ____ 654 _______1187 ________ 445 ____ 1632 ____________ 6th Norm +3.0 (all forecasts 3.0) __ 443 ____ 658 _______1101 ________ 371 ____ 1472 ____________ 9th so it would appear that Norm + 2.7 or +2.8 might have done the best of all the "norms" and come closest to our top five. You would score higher by going +4.0 for every forecast, than to predict normal. Normal +3.0 would have won February, July, and October (when it would have won all segments), and would have finished last in May, as well as last in the west for December. So I'm thinking that a strategy where you predict +3.0 unless you feel sure it will go cold might be a very good one (a lot better than mine, anyway). Meanwhile, these are the average departures from normal for each station over the twelve months. DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA +2.2__ +2.2__ +2.0 ___ +2.4 __+3.3 __+1.6 ____ +1.9 __+1.7 __+2.5 Out of the 108 months, only 20 were below normal, and one was exactly normal. The average absolute departure was 2.6 degrees.
  11. The average error per forecast ranges from about 1.8 F deg at the top of the table to 3.1 F deg for random "Normal" estimates. The range is something like 1.6 to 2.8 in the original six, and 2.1 to 3.7 in the west, although in the west Normal is not the largest error range as in the original six and all nine, so in the west Normal's average error is 3.4. Your point total will correlate with this fairly well, but there are cases during the year where you might score zero but have an error larger than 5.0, or where the anomaly was larger than 5 making the points deduction smaller for errors of various sizes. If you want to estimate your own average error, take the percentage of points lost (e.g., if you scored 6500 in the all nine, a perfect score is 10,800 so you lost 4300 or about 40%) -- that would imply an average error of 2.0, but then adjust that by ten per cent (2.2 F deg) to make up for those oddball scoring cases, or scan back and take them case by case, some people probably have fewer missing deductions than others. Our group consensus is probably around 2.5 F error, 2.2 in the east/central and 2.8 in the west. As a group, we improved on random about 80% of the time (had the right anomaly sign) and by an average of 0.6 deg. Given the number of extreme forecasts (over half the total qualified) you could say we have a rather conservative bias in general. Perhaps more useful information (in terms of improving one's forecasting) could be gleaned from studying the error trends, some people are probably consistent and some are likely showing a warm or cold bias. If you can identify a bias, you can improve your results, those who scatter at random on either side won't find any tips they can use from that factoid. I will post again and reveal what other "norms" would have scored. Those other norms are always predicting +0.5, +1.0, +1.5 etc. I think one or two of those might have kicked most of our butts. And I will report on what the average anomaly was for each of the nine stations. I suspect that most had a positive average, possibly higher than +1.0 in some cases.
  12. Update on snowfalls thru Jan 18th ... showing perrcentage of contest average forecast and minimum forecast (none of those have been overtaken yet). The previous post will now be kept as a record of how December ended. (no new snow anywhere in this grid Jan 13-18 except for 0.6" 17th at MSP) Loc'n __ Snow __ % Contest Avg ___ Contest Minimum MQT ___ 72.6" ___ (36%) _________ 160.0 GRR ___ 45.6" ___ (58%) __________ 50.0 YXU ___ 39.6" * __ (49%) __________64.0 APN ____37.7" ___ (46%) __________59.1 GRB ____30.2" ___ (60%) __________35.5 LSE ____ 25.4" ___ (58%) __________31.4 MSP ____23.7" ___ (51%) __________36.4 DTW ___ 21.5" ___ (45%) __________35.0 MKE ____19.8" ___ (44%) __________33.4 YYZ ____19.7" ** __ (42%) ________ 26.0 ORD ___ 18.1" ___ (46%) __________28.0 CLE ____14.0" ___ (20%) __________46.0 MLI ____ 13.8" ___ (45%) _________ 22.8 FWA ___ 12.0" ___ (33%) __________26.9 CMH ____6.3" ___ (23%) __________ 15.6 IND ____ 6.1" ___ (22%) __________ 16.0 PIA _____5.9" ___ (23%) __________ 19.7 SDF ____ 2.4" ___ (17%) ____________6.0 STL ____ 1.2" ___ ( 7%) ____________ 8.0 PAH ____0.2" ___ ( 2%) ____________ 5.0 Tiebreaker 1, ORD (Dec) ___ 17.7" (+8.6 on contest avg, +1.4" on max from KokomoWx) (settled ) Tiebreaker 2, IND (Jan) _____ 1.2 (min 5.2, mean 10.0, max 23.6) ___________________________________________ * YXU not updated yet for Jan 18th, total 100.5 cm or 39.6". ** YYZ updated on Jan 18th. 0.0 cm, season total 49.9 cm or 19.7"
  13. I was waiting to see if this contest thread would appear; as we are now very close to November, I decided to post a contest thread. Hope nobody minds ... it will be exactly the same as last winter even the tie-breakers are the same. Post your predictions of total winter snowfall (including anything already recorded -- season ends officially June 30th, contest will probably run to mid-May at latest) for these 20 locations. I have included the 1986-2015 averages as provided last year, and last season's snowfalls. (note Nov 15, apparently I posted the average of last year's forecasts rather than the 1986-2015 averages, this mistake has been corrected below, on average the forecasts were 90% of the normals, check your forecasts to see if you want to make any changes -- the deadline has been extended to Friday night Nov 18th.) Three tie-breaker questions follow. LOCATION _______________ 1986-2015 _____ 2015-16 Alpena, MI (APN) _____________ 80.4 _______ 88.8 Chicago, IL (ORD) ____________ 38.1 _______ 31.2 Cleveland, OH (CLE) __________ 67.2 _______ 32.8 Columbus, OH (CMH) __________28.4 _______ 17.1 Detroit, MI (DTW) _____________ 44.8 _______ 35,3 Fort Wayne, IN (FWA) _________ 34.0 _______ 20.0 Grand Rapids, MI (GRR) _______ 77.1 _______ 61.1 Green Bay, WI (GRB) __________ 54.2 _______ 50.0 Indianapolis, IN (IND) __________ 25.9 _______ 13.3 La Crosse, WI (LSE) __________ 46.1 ________ 40.3 London, ON (YXU) ____________75.7 ________ 65.2 Louisville, KY (SDF) __________ 13.9 ________ 14.9 Marquette, MI (MQT) _________199.8 _______ 160.9 Milwaukee, WI (MKE) _________ 49.2 ________ 39.1 Minneapolis, MN (MSP) _______ 50.6_________ 36.7 Moline, IL (MLI) _____________ 33.5 _________ 24.1 Paducah, KY (PAH)___________ 9.2 _________ 12.1 Peoria, IL (PIA) _____________.24.9 _________ 15.3 St. Louis, MO (STL) _________ 18.4 _________ 10.9 Toronto, ON (YYZ) __________ 42.5 _________ 25.9 ------------------------------- --------------------------------------- --------------------------------------- ENTRY FORM APN __ ORD __ CLE __ CMH __ DET __ FWA __ GRR __ GRB __ IND __ LSE __ YXU __ SDF __ MQT __ MKE __ MSP __ MLI __ PAH __ PIA __ STL __ YYZ __ Tiebreakers 1. December 2016 snowfall ORD (8.5" normal) 2. January 2017 snowfall IND (8.6" normal) 3. February 2017 snowfall DTW (10.2" normal) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- If you want to see individual years in the 1986-2015 period, check last year's contest thread (recently bumped to top of page), post number one there has a table of the 30 years in the period used. Entries will be accepted until end of the day Friday, Nov 18th (2359 CST). You can edit entries before that time as the table of entries will be done on Nov 19th (using an excel table format). Good luck !! Late entries (Nov 19 to 30) will be scored but cannot place higher than 6th, enter for the fun of it if you want though. Entries that appear in the thread after Nov 30 will not be scored.
  14. Table of forecasts for January 2017 FORECASTER ____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ____ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Prestige Worldwide ______ +2.5 _ +2.1 _ +0.4 ___ --2.6 _ +3.4 _ --1.7 ____--2.1 _ --0.2 _ --2.4 Maxim _________________+2.5 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 ___ --1.0 _ +3.0 _ +2.0 ____--1.5 _ +1.0 _ --3.5 DonSutherland.1 ________ +2.3 _ +1.8 _ +1.4 ___ +1.0 _ +3.7 _ +4.0 ____--0.7 _ +0.5 _ --4.5 Stebo __________________+1.8 _ +1.5 _ +1.2 ___ --1.5 _ +2.2 _ +1.8 ____--2.2 _ --1.1 _ --2.9 BKViking _______________ +1.6 _ +1.5 _ +1.3 ___ --1.7 _ +2.0 _ +1.0 ____--2.4 _ --0.7 _ --3.1 RJay ___________________+1.5 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ___ +0.5 _ +2.0 _ +1.5 ____--1.0 _ --1.5 _ --4.0 SD ____________________ +1.5 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ____ 0.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ____--0.5 _ +1.0 _ --0.5 so_whats_happening _____ +1.4 _ --0.5 _ --1.0 ___ --2.2 _ +1.7 _ +1.2 ____--1.9 _ +0.8 _ --2.3 blazess556 ___ (-1%) _____+1.4 _ +1.2 _ +1.0 ___ +0.1 _ +1.8 _ +2.1 ____--1.4 _ --1.1 _ --0.8 Consensus _______________+1.4 _ +1.0 _ +0.7 ___ --1.3 _ +1.8 _ +1.2 ____--1.5 _ --0.2 _ --2.8 dmillz25 ________________+1.3 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ___ +1.0 _ +2.0 _ +1.5 ____--1.5 _ --1.7 _ --3.5 hudsonvalley21 _________ +1.1 _ +0.4 _ +1.3 ___ --0.5 _ +0.8 _ +1.3 ____--0.3 _ +0.6 _ --1.2 H2Otown_WX ___________ +1.1 _ +0.4 _ --0.2 ___ --1.8 _ +1.4 _ --0.6 ____--1.3 _ +1.5 _ --0.9 wxallannj ______________ +0.7 _ +0.9 _ +0.8 ___ --1.1 _ +1.8 _ +0.7 ____--2.6 _ --1.3 _ --4.1 Tom __________________ +0.4 _ --0.2 _ --0.6 ___ --3.1 _ +0.2 _ +0.5 ____--2.9 _ --0.9 _ --3.1 wxdude64 ______________ +0.3 _ --1.0 _ --0.1 ___ --0.4 _ +1.2 _ +1.2 ____--1.5 _ --0.3 _ --2.8 Damage in Tolland _______ +0.2 _ --0.5 _ --1.0 ___ --2.3 _ +0.5 _ +1.0 ____--2.5 _ --0.3 _ --2.2 Normal _________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ______ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 Roger Smith ____________ --0.2 _ --0.7 _ --1.2 ___ --3.3 _ +0.2 _ +1.5 ____+0.5 _ +2.0 _ --3.5 RodneyS _______________ --1.2 _ --1.6 _ --1.2 ___ --0.6 __ 0.0 _ +0.8 ____ --2.0 _ --1.1 _ --1.9 __________________________________________________________________________________ Note: with the relaxed late penalties this month, we are currently at 9% and will be adding 1% every four hours from 18z today to 18z Tuesday. Any further entries will adjust the Consensus values which are currently mean of 9th and 10th ranked forecasts. ... Welcome to Worldwide Prestige.
  15. Summary of Contest results Congratulations to DonSutherland.1 for winning all three contests. His margin in the "all nine" was fairly comfortable, but he came from second to first in the western section and just managed to hold off some charging competition in the "original six" portion. Don also had high score in the central portion of that contest, and for NYC, DEN and SEA. He won the May contests in original six and all nine, November in all nine, and April in the western contest. Damage in Tolland had second place in the all nine scoring, was third in the original six and seventh in the west. He had high scores for DCA and ATL. He won in June for both all nine and western, and in July and November for the original six portion. Wxdude64 was third overall and second in the original six, by a margin that was about equal to small totals of time penalties there. He was eighth in the western contest. He had overall high scores for BOS and the eastern portion of the contest, and won January in all nine and the western contest. Mallow finished fourth overall and in the western contest, and sixth in the original six. He won September and November in the western contest. Maxim was fifth in the all nine and western contests, and was eighth in the original six. Maxim won three months in both all nine and original six contests, March, September and October, and was also top score in the west in September. RodneyS finished sixth overall, fourth in the original six and tied eleventh in the west. He had high score for IAH and for May in the western contest. Wxallannj was seventh overall, and finished third in the west (high score PHX) after leading most of the year. He was tenth in the original six where he had high score for April. He also won April in the all nine segment. Rjay was eighth in the all nine, with high score for August; sixth in the west with high score for October, and ninth in the original six with high score in August. BKViking was ninth overall, fifth in the original six and tenth in the west. He had high score for ORD, and won January and December in the original six, as well as December in the all nine. BKV had substantial time penalties in three months and his raw score was very close to the totals of DonSutherland and wxdude64. Those details can be seen for all forecasters back in the summary of annual scoring (immediately after December scoring). Midlo Snow Maker was tenth overall with high score in February, and surged to second place in the west including high score in March. He was 13th in the original six but had high score in February there too. Highlights for the rest of the crew ... BLAZESS556 was 11th (all nine), and 7th in the original six, tied 11th in the west. Then it was HUDSONVALLEY21 in 12th (all nine), 11th in the original six and ninth in the west, winning July there. ... DMILLZ25 had a steady climb to finish 13th overall, 12th in the original six, and 15th in the west but finished with a win for December there. ... ROGER SMITH 14th (16th and 13th, high score August in west). ... TOM was 15th overall, and won June in the original six ... SD was 16th overall, and won July in the west. ... STEBO finished 17th (14th in original six) and began to score well in the west after a rough start. ... OHweather would have been around tenth had he continued on after July, where he had high score in west and all nine. TENMAN JOHNSON played ten months and had high score for February in the west. I think this was the most competitive year so far with the top ten really mixing it up and making it tough for Don all the way to the end, but it was quite an achievement to win all segments despite all that. Hope you enjoyed it, now on to 2017 ...
  16. == << Updated Annual Scoring for western and all nine contests Jan to Dec 2016 >> == FORECASTER __________ DEN_PHX_SEA __ TOTALS _ best scores (mo) _ All Nine Totals __ best scores 01 DonSutherland.1 _______ 662 _ 630 _ 909 ____ 2201 _____ 0 0 2 _ Apr ___ 7138 (= 1) __ MAY, NOV 02 Midlo Snow Maker______ 630 _ 661 _ 858 ____ 2149 _____ 1 2 3 _ Mar ____6576 (=10) ___ FEB 03 wxallannj _____________ 618 _ 759 _ 765 ____ 2142 _____ 0 1 1 ________ 6712 (= 7) ____ APR 04 Mallow _______________ 648 _ 693 _ 793 ____ 2134 _____ 3 2 0_Sep,Nov _ 6835 (= 4) 05 Consensus ___________ 677 _ 638 _ 805 ____ 2120 _____ 0 0 1 _ Jul ____ 6973 (= 2) ___ JUL 05 Maxim _______________ 573 _ 656 _ 877 ____ 2106 _____ 0 1 2 _ Sep ___ 6789 (= 5) _ MAR,SEP,OCT 06 Rjay _________________627 _ 619 _ 798 ____ 2044 _____ 1 0 1 _ Oct ___ 6677 (= 8) ___ AUG 07 Damage in Tolland ______604 _ 572 _ 861 ____ 2037 _____ 1 0 1 _ Jun ___ 6926 (= 2) ___ JUN 08 wxdude64 ____________ 659 _ 609 _ 741 ____ 2009 _____ 0 1 2 _ Jan ___ 6918 (= 3) ___ JAN 09 hudsonvalley21 ________ 658 _ 558 _ 733 ____ 1949 _____ 0 1 0 _ Jul ___ 6514 (=12) 10 BKViking _____________ 625 _ 548 _ 745 ____ 1918 _____ 0 0 0 ________ 6670 (= 9) ___ DEC t 11 RodneyS ____________598 _ 593 _ 691 ____ 1882 _____ 2 0 0 _ May ___ 6750 (= 6) t 11 blazess556 __________ 596 _ 633 _ 653 ____ 1882 _____ 1 0 0 _________6569 (=11) 13 Roger Smith __________ 469 _ 638 _ 729 ____ 1836 _____ 1 2 0 _ Aug ___ 5954 (=14) 14 Tom _________________ 595 _ 575 _ 625 ____1795 _____ 0 0 1 ________ 5862 (=15) 15 dmillz25 ______________561 _ 518 _ 701 ____1780 _____ 1 0 0 _ Dec ___ 6230 (=13) 16 SD __________________ 531 _ 552 _ 622 ____1705 _____ 0 0 1 _ Jul ___ 5854 (=16) 17 Normal _______________566 _ 546 _ 532 ____ 1644 ____ 1 0 1 _ Aug ____ 5164 (=18) 17 Tenman Johnson@@____ 487 _ 582 _ 434 ____1503 _____ 2 1 1 _ Feb ___ 5077 (=18) 18 Stebo ________________ 485 _ 526 _ 412 ____ 1423 _____ 0 1 1 _______ 5751 (=17) 19 OHweather@@@@_____ 410 _ 464 _ 484 ____ 1358 _____ 1 0 1 _ Jul __ 4433 (=19) ___ JUL 20 ksammut@@@@@@___ 306 _ 322 _ 220 _____ 848 _____ 0 1 0 ________2971 (=20) ______________________________________________________________________ @ for missing months ... other partial scores can be found in earlier tables or in this month's scoring table. H2OTown_Wx played four months and had a total score of 623 western, 1819 all nine.
  17. ===--<<<< UPDATED ANNUAL SCORING JAN to DEC 2016 >>>>--=== Set to 100% to prevent line overflow. __FORECASTER ___ DCA_NYC_BOS __ east ___ ORD_ATL_IAH __ cent __ TOTAL __ Best scores 01 DonSutherland.1 __ 863 . 927 . 846 __ 2636 ___ 712 . 773 . 816 __2301 __ 4937 __ 010011 . 1. 1 ..MAY 02 wxdude64 _______ 863 . 920 . 909 __ 2692 ___ 678 . 759 . 780 __ 2217 __ 4909 __ 111111 .2. 0 03 Damage in Tolland _927 . 884 . 834 __ 2645 ___ 703 . 865 . 676 __ 2244 __ 4889__311130 .1.2 JUL, NOV 04 RodneyS ________ 817 . 912 . 898 __ 2627 ___ 628 . 727 . 886 __ 2241 __ 4868__ 221033. 2 . 1 05 Consensus_______ 831 . 950 . 868 __ 2649 ___ 699 . 753 . 752 __ 2204 __ 4853 __ 001000 . 0 . 0 05 BKViking ________ 746 . 906 . 853 __ 2505 ___ 763 . 770 . 714 __ 2247 __ 4752 __ 000210 . 0 .1 JAN.DEC 06 Mallow___________733 . 916 . 878 __ 2527 ___ 737 . 591 . 846 __ 2108 __ 4701 __ 120003. 0 . 0 . 07 blazess556 _______771 . 922 . 866 __ 2559 ___ 624 . 778 . 726 __ 2128 __ 4687 __ 001011 . 0 . 0 08 Maxim __________ 785 . 812 . 888 __ 2485 ___ 661 . 773 . 764 __ 2198 __ 4683 __ 202221 . 1 . 3 _________________________________________________________________________________________ MAR,SEP,OCT 09 Rjay ____________872 . 833 . 747 __ 2452 ___ 740 . 806 . 635 __ 2181 __ 4633 __ 321211 . 1 . 1 ..AUG 10 wxallannj ________ 784 . 877 . 849 __ 2510 ___ 622 . 669 . 769 __ 2060 __ 4570 __010100 . 0 . 1 ..APR 11 hudsonvalley21 ___ 737 . 888 . 876 __ 2501 ___ 739 . 679 . 646 __ 2064 __ 4565 __ 012100 . 0 . 0 12 dmillz25 _________ 790 . 854 . 800 __ 2444 ___ 657 . 711 . 638 __ 2006 __ 4450 __ 021201 . 3 . 0 13 MidloSnowMaker __786 . 826 . 768 __ 2380 ___ 695 . 702 . 650 __ 2047 __ 4427 __ 011020 . 1 . 0 ..FEB 14 Stebo___________ 740 . 813 . 786 __ 2339 ___ 595 . 742 . 652 __ 1989 __ 4328 __ 001001 . 1 . 1 15 SD _____________695 . 838 . 782 __ 2315 ___ 566 . 596 . 672 __ 1834 __ 4149 __ 00110. 0 . 0 16 Roger Smith _____ 753 . 732 . 690 __ 2175 ___ 664 . 589 . 690 __ 1943 __ 4118 __ 400201 . 0 . 0 17 Tom____________ 673 . 762 . 744 __ 2179 ___ 619 . 587 . 682 __ 1888 __ 4067 __ 000000 . 0 . 1 .. JUN 18 Tenman Johnson@ 591 . 628 . 644 __ 1863 ___ 562 . 571 . 578 __ 1711 __ 3574 __ 210100 . 1 . 0 19 Normal__________ 572 . 688 . 680 __ 1940 ___ 500 . 420 . 660 __ 1580 __ 3520 __ 000001 . 1 . 0 19 OHweather #_____ 487 . 607 . 559 __ 1653 ___ 397 . 541 . 484 __ 1422 __ 3075 __ 000010. 0 . 0 20 ksammut & ______ 413 . 397 . 360 __ 1170 ___ 269 . 338 . 346 ___ 953 __ 2123 __ 111001 . 1 . 0 ______________________________________________ @ missed two months (Nov, Dec) # missed four months (Sept,Oct,Nov,Dec) & missed six months (July to Dec) Other best scores from December include NYC, BOS and east for so_whats_happening and ATL for H2OTown_Wx, ... other partial scores can be found in earlier tables including two entrants this month, H20Town_Wx played Jan to Mar, annual totals are 586 east, 610 central, 1196 total.
  18. There is a dormant volcanic cone (Aurora Crater) shown at the general location of many of these quakes. Link: http://data.nbmg.unr.edu/Public/Geothermal/SiteDescriptions/AuroraCrater.pdf
  19. 1282 tornados First high risk April 7th in MO/IL/KY/IN
  20. EXTREME FORECAST UPDATE ________________________________________________________ With four more extreme forecasts probable in December, the 2016 total will be 61 out of 108, or 57% of the cases. About 53 of those were won outright by the most extreme forecast and the other eight were scooped by second most extreme forecast with the extreme getting the "loss" in the standings. Any other outcome such as third most extreme forecast having the best score does not qualify. This month, DCA (+2.1) missed qualifying by 0.1, otherwise tied second highest forecasts (+2.4) would have shared high score with Maxim (+2.0). NYC and BOS were safely within the range of forecasts. DEN had been running colder than our extreme low forecast of --3.2 from RodneyS, but a late surge up to 2.2 passed both him and Stebo at --2.8, then also blazesss556 at --2.6 and penalty-hampered BKViking at --2.4 with high score settling at fifth most extreme Dmillz25 (--2.0). It was a similar situation at SEA (--2.6) which faded out of contention for two tied at --3.0 (Midlo and BKViking who are both losing points on late penalties) who both finished lower in points than Stebo (--2.6) or blazess556 (--2.4). This would have made the table at --2.8 or colder. The other four have as expected qualified for extreme forecasts ... ORD (--2.7) goes to Roger Smith (--2.5, lowest forecast) ATL (+3.6) is a win for H2OTown_Wx (+3.1, highest forecast) IAH (+4.2) goes to RodneyS (+3.2, highest forecast) PHX (+2.5) is a win for Mallow (+2.1, highest forecast) UPDATED STANDINGS (Final for 2016) Damage in Tolland ____9-0 Midlo Snow Maker ____8-1 Maxim _____________ 7-1 RodneyS ___________ 7-3* Rjay _______________ 6-2 Roger Smith _________6-2 Mallow _____________ 5-0 Tenman Johnson _____3-0 DonSutherland.1 _____ 3-0 dmillz25 ____________ 3-0 wxallannj ___________ 3-0* ksammut ___________ 2-0 Blazess556 __________2-0 Normal _____________ 2-0 hudsonvalley21 ______ 1-0 BKViking ___________ 1-0 OHweather __________1-0 SD ________________ 1-0 Tom _______________ 1-0 H2OTown_Wx _______ 1-0 Stebo ______________ 1-1 debeaches __________ 0-3 *plus two "no decisions" __ RodneyS and Quincy (they were closer by forecast back in April, but lost on time penalties to the high scores, and same for wxallannj (PHX, Oct). Well done to Damage in Tolland (9-0) who was first overall in extreme forecasts, close second to Midlo Snow Maker (8-1) and a solid third for Maxim (7-1) who was matched in wins by RodneyS (7-3).
  21. Always glad to see new forecasters joining in (new to this contest, that is, sure you're not new new) ... seems that you have the high score in the eastern section for December on the current provisionals -- that was the entire contest three years ago, we added the three central stations one year then the three western stations. I will add my forecast -- please note (all readers), when you forecast early you can always edit before the deadline without bothering to draw attention to your edit because I don't make any notes of forecasts until about an hour after the deadline, so if you go early and change your mind, just edit in your revised numbers. --0.2 __ --0.7 __ --1.2 ____ --3.3 __ +0.2 __ +1.5 ____ +0.5 __ +2.0 __ --3.5 (If anyone is wondering about SEA normals, they are probably around 36-37 F for January, average of max of 45 and min of 29. Long spells without highs above 40 are unusual around here. But snow cover really changes anomaly patterns locally; with snow cover it can easily drop 10 degrees lower on clear nights than over bare ground in the same synoptics. This may turn out to be the coldest December since 1968 around here, certainly the most snow in my part of the world since Dec 2008).
  22. Summary of annual totals for 2016 More detailed tables with station scores and best score summaries will be posted by early Monday Jan 2nd. (All nine locations) Rank/ FORECASTER ___ SCORE (diff) ____ Rank/ Total score before penalties (shown if applicable) 1 DonSutherland.1 ____ 7138 (leader) _______ 1 ... (2) consensus _____ 6973 (-165) ________ (2) 2 Damage in Tolland __ 6926 (-212) _________ 3 3 wxdude64 _________ 6918 (-220) _________ 2 ... 6956 4 Mallow ____________ 6835 (-303) _________6 5 Maxim ____________ 6789 (-349) _________ 8 6 RodneyS __________ 6750 (-388) _________ 7 ... 6798 7 wxallannj __________6712 (-426) _________ 5 ... 6890 8 Rjay ______________ 6677 (-461) _________ 9 ... 6701 9 BKViking ___________6670 (-468) _________ 4 ... 6919 10 Midlo Snow Maker __ 6576 (-562) ________ 11 ... 6610 11 Blazess556 ________ 6569 (-569) ________10 ... 6616 12 hudsonvalley21 ____ 6514 (-624) _________12 13 DMillz25 __________ 6230 (-908) _________ 13 14 Roger Smith _______ 5954 (-1184) ________14 15 Tom _____________ 5862 (-1276) ________ 15 16 SD _______________5854 (-1284) ________ 16 17 Stebo ____________ 5751 (-1387) ________ 17 ... 5768 ... (18) Normal _______ 5164 (-1974) ________ (18) 18 Tenman Johnson**_ 5077 (-2061) ________ 18 19 OHweather**** ____4433 (-2705) ________ 19 ... 4471 (Original six locations) 1 DonSutherland.1 _____ 4937 (leader) _______ 2 2 wxdude64 __________ 4909 ( -28) _________ 1 ... 4938 3 Damage in Tolland ___ 4889 ( -48) _________ 5 4 RodneyS ____________4868 ( -69) _________ 4 ... 4902 ... (5) consensus ______ 4853 ( -84) _________ (5) 5 BKViking ____________4752 (-185) __________3 ... 4912 6 Mallow _____________ 4701 (-236) __________8 7 blazess556 __________4687 (-250) __________ 6 ... 4722 8 Maxim _____________ 4683 (-254) __________ 9 9 Rjay _______________ 4633 (-304) __________10 ... 4649 10 wxallannj __________ 4570 (-367) __________ 7 ... 4703 11 hudsonvalley21 _____ 4565 (-372) __________11 12 Dmillz25 ___________ 4450 (-487) _________ 13 13 Midlo Snow Maker ___ 4427 (-510) _________ 12 ... 4453 14 Stebo _____________ 4328 (-609) __________14 ... 4343 15 SD ________________4149 (-788) _________ 15 16 Roger Smith ________ 4118 (-819) _________ 16 17 Tom _______________4067 (-870) _________ 17 18 Tenman Johnson** ___3574 (-1363) ________ 18 ... (19)Normal _________ 3520 (-1417) ________ (19) 19 OHweather**** _____ 3035 (-1902) ________ 19 ... 3065 (western three locations) 1 DonSutherland.1 _____ 2201 (leader) __________1 2 Midlo Snow Maker ____ 2149 ( -52) ___________ 3 ... 2157 3 wxallannj ___________ 2142 ( -59) ___________ 2 ... 2187 4 Mallow _____________ 2134 ( -67) ___________ 4 ... (5) consensus _______ 2120 (-81) ___________ (5) 5 Maxim ______________ 2106 ( -95) ___________5 6 Rjay ________________ 2044 (-157) __________ 6 ... 2052 7 Damage in Tolland ____ 2037 (-164) __________ 7 8 wxdude64 ___________ 2009 (-192) __________ 8... 2018 9 hudsonvalley21 _______ 1949 (-252) __________10 10 BKViking ____________1918 (-283) __________ 9 ... 2007 t 11 RodneyS ___________1882 (-319) __________11 ... 1896 t 11 blazess556 _________1882 (-319) __________12 ... 1894 13 Roger Smith ________ 1836 (-365) __________ 13 14 Tom _______________ 1795 (-406) __________14 15 DMillz25 ____________ 1780 (-421) __________15 16 SD _________________1705 (-496) __________16 ... (17) Normal _________ 1644 (-557) _________ (17) 17 Tenman Johnson** ___ 1503 (-698) __________17 18 Stebo _______________1423 (-778) __________18 ... 1425 19 OHweather**** ______ 1358 (-843) _________ 19 ... 1366 __________________________________________ numbers in brackets are points behind leader. ** or **** months not played H2OTown_Wx entered Jan, Feb, Mar and Dec. In those four months, scores were compared with consensus and they ranked close to 10th in western, 15th in all nine and 18th in original six locations. Using the same comparison and pro-rating, Tenman Johnson would rank around 14th in all contests and OHweather around 9th.
  23. Final Scoring for December 2016 Best scores in bold. Underlined italic scores are best among regular year-long forecasters and will count in the annual table as best scores. FORECASTER ___________ DCA_NYC_BOS ___ east ___ ORD_ATL_IAH ___ cent ____ TOTAL BKViking ________________86 _ 94_100 ____ 280 ____ 74 _ 70 _ 42 ____ 186 __466 ___________ (-6%) ______ 81 _ 88 _ 94 ____ 263 ____ 70 _ 66 _ 39 ____ 175 ____ 438 wxdude64 _______________92 _ 82 _ 90 ____ 264 ____ 60 _ 66 _ 36 ____ 162 ____ 426 Damage in Tolland ________92 _ 78 _ 90 ____ 260 ____ 64 _ 66 _ 36 ____ 166 ____ 426 Midlo Snow Maker*_(-1%)__97 _ 77 _ 73 ____ 247 ____ 65 _ 77 _ 36 ____ 178____ 425 RodneyS ________________72 _ 96 _ 90 ____ 258 ____ 20 _ 48 _ 80 ____ 148 ____ 406 Consensus _______________80 _ 94 _ 90 ____ 264 ____ 44 _ 58 _ 36____ 138 ____ 402 blazess556 ______________ 78 _ 94 _ 80 ____ 252 ____ 68 _ 68 _ 08 ____ 144 ____ 396 wxallannj _______________ 86 _ 84 _ 92 ____ 262 ____ 30 _ 56 _ 46 ____ 132 ____ 394 Stebo __________________ 80 _ 90 _ 76 ____ 246 ____ 70 _ 70 _ 06 ____ 146 ____ 392 Dmillz25 ________________ 88 _ 90 _ 90 ____ 268 ____ 16 _ 68 _ 36 ____ 120 ____ 388 RJay ___________________ 78 _ 96 _ 90 ____ 264 ____ 44 _ 38 _ 36 ____ 118 ____ 382 H2Otown__WX ___________94 _ 72 _ 68 ____ 234 ____ 20 _ 90 _ 32 ____ 142 ____ 376 hudsonvalley21 __________ 66 _ 98 _ 96 ____ 260 ____ 48 _ 46 _ 10 ____ 104 ____ 364 DonSutherland.1 __________94 _ 74 _ 80 ____ 248 ____ 10 _ 66 _ 36 ____ 112 ____ 360 Maxim __________________ 98 _ 76 _ 80 ____ 254 ____ 26 _ 58 _ 16 ____ 100 ____ 354 so_whats_happening ______ 80 _ 98_100____ 278 ____ 18 _ 16 _ 24 ____ 058 ____ 336 SD _____________________68 _ 94 _ 90 ____ 252 ____ 36 _ 38 _ 06 _____ 080 ____ 332 Tom ___________________ 42 _ 66 _ 72 _____ 180 ____ 84 _ 30 _ 30 ____ 144 ____ 324 Mallow _________________ 74 _ 98 _ 86 _____ 258 ____ 10 _ 18 _ 38 ____ 066 ____ 324 Normal _________________ 58 _ 84 _ 90_____232 ____ 46 _ 28 _ 16 ____ 090 ____ 322 Roger Smith _____________38 _ 60 _ 60 _____ 158 ____ 96 _ 00 _ 16 ____ 112 ____ 270 *note: Midlo Snow Maker scores above 50 are reduced by 1 point as shown. _____________________________________________________________ Final scoring for western and all nine contests (Dec 2016) FORECASTER ___________ DEN_PHX_SEA _____ TOTAL __________ All nine (= rank) Dmillz25 ________________ 96 _ 70 _ 74 _______240 ____________ 628 (= 2) Tom ___________________ 92 _ 58 _ 80 _______ 230 ____________ 554 (=13) blazess556 ______________ 92 _ 38 _ 96 _______ 226 ____________ 622 (= 4) Stebo __________________ 88 _ 36_100 _______224 ____________ 616 (= 6) H2OTown_Wx ___________ 88 _ 42 _ 86 _______ 216 ____________ 592 (= 9) Maxim __________________76 _ 60 _ 78 _______ 214 ____________ 568 (=11) RJay ___________________ 76 _ 48 _ 88 _______ 212 ____________ 594 (= 8) hudsonvalley21 ___________92 _ 40 _ 68 _______ 200 ____________ 564 (=12) Damage in Tolland ________56 _ 70 _ 72 _______ 198 ____________ 624 (= 3) Midlo Snow Maker _ (-1%) _ 95_ 10 _ 91 _______ 196 ____________ 621 (= 5) BKViking ________________96 _ 18 _ 92 _ 206 ____________ (-6%) ______90 _ 17 _ 86 _______ 193 ____________631 (= 1) DonSutherland.1 _________ 76 _ 36 _ 78 _______ 190 ____________ 550 (=14) Consensus ______________ 76 _ 40 _ 74 _______ 190 ____________ 592 (= t 9) wxdude64 _______________72 _ 42 _ 74 _______ 188 ____________ 614 (= 7) SD _____________________ 76 _ 30 _ 68 _______ 174 ____________ 506 (=16) Mallow __________________56 _ 92 _ 24 _______ 172 ____________ 496 (=17) RodneyS ________________ 80 _ 28 _ 56 _______ 164 ____________ 570 (=10) Normal __________________56 _ 50 _ 48 _______ 154 ____________ 476 (=16) so_whats_happening ______ 42 _ 38 _ 64 _______ 144 ____________ 480 (=18) wxallannj ________________42 _ 70 _ 04 _______ 116 ____________ 510 (=15) Roger Smith _____________ 06 _ 36 _ 54 _______ 096 ____________ 366 (= 19) ___________________________________________________________
  24. I nailed it too (said the girl who plays with her hair on SNL) and from 1873.
  25. You're going to get another 2 feet tonight and Monday when that clipper races through, more generally I would expect the NW type belts like London, Cleveland and sw/c MI to do well today then bands will shift back north as winds back to westerly, very heavy falls are likely as this clipper is basically just accelerating cold air and raising dew points to where the air mass can reach maximum payloads. Will not be surprised if 20-40 inch amounts are reported next 2 days. Where it's super cold now, watch for temperatures to stall after sunset and start rising slowly.