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Roger Smith

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  1. First reports on the anomalies and projections. ___________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ____ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA _______ (7d) _______ --0.6 _--1.1 _--0.1 ____--2.7 _--1.6 _--2.2 ____ --5.9 _--1.9 _+7.5 _______ (14d) ______ --1.5 _--1.5 _--0.4 ____--2.4 _--1.3 _--0.5 ____ --5.1 _--1.2 _+5.4 _______ (p 21d) ____ --1.0 _--1.0 _--0.2 ____ --1.0 _--0.3 _+0.3 ____ --3.5 _--1.2 _+3.5 _______ (p 31d) ____ --0.2 _--0.2 _+0.5 _____ 0.0 _+0.3 _+0.5 ____ --2.5 _--0.8 _+2.5 Note: As of 14th, there were still no changes this month in Seasonal Max contest (scoring can be seen in the July thread). Will bring an update over to this month if we have any new developments. Due to my vacation time, updates to the above will appear again only after 21 days. More frequent updates after the 24th.
  2. It's not the heat, it's the humidity ... Predict the temperature anomalies in F deg relative to 1981-2010 normals for DCA __ NYC __ BOS ___ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ___ DEN __ PHX __ SEA and avoid the scourge of late penalty deduction (1% every 2 hours to end of 2nd then 1% per hour), enter by 06z Tuesday August 1st, or 0100h EDT Tuesday. Good luck, provisional scoring posted in the July thread, generally high scores for most in July.
  3. To encourage a few more entries, and given that there seems to be little activity expected this week, the deadline will be extended to Tuesday June 6th at 23z. You could still enter after that but I will start assessing penalties at the following rates: seasonal will lose one point each day entered after June 6th and June monthly will move to the standard "portion of month elapsed" deduction which by 7th will be 20%. (this penalty will be waived for entries made before June 6th 23z -- note to any entrants already registered, you can edit your predictions up to that extended deadline, table of entries to be posted on June 7th from entries then placed in the thread. After reviewing how the last two contests went, I will use the same format as last year. Here's the simplified version of how to enter: 1. Enter your seasonal forecast (named storms / hurricanes / major hurricanes) in this thread before 06z June 1st, with 1% per day reductions in score for late entries. This portion of the contest is worth 50% of the total score but will also be tabulated in order of finish. Please note that in April, Tropical Storm Arlene made the count for 2017 1/0/0 before you even enter, so factor that into your prediction. Any storms that are named in May will also count towards the seasonal total but not the monthly portion of the contest. If you enter before a named storm is declared in May, either edit your post, or allow me to add the results of the named storm to your prediction (most people ensure that their seasonal forecast is the sum of their monthly forecasts). 2. If you want to enter a specific June forecast and other months later in the year, add those to your seasonal. Last year, I think all but one contestant entered all of their months in advance and one or two adjusted during the contest. One never entered any monthlies and was assigned a pro-rated version of the contest normal. NOV-DEC will count as one forecast, so you can enter monthlies for JUN, JUL, AUG, SEP, OCT and NOV-DEC. If you do not enter monthlies, you will be assigned provisional but fully-scoring estimates based on your seasonal weighted from this "contest normal" which is adjusted from last year which already had Alex and Bonnie, as Bonnie 2016 = Arlene 2017, the contest normal is set at last year's 16/8/3 minus 1/1/0 for Alex. The seasonal contest normal is set at 15/7/3. This is adjusted from the 1989-2016 average of 14/7/3. It will be adjusted again if necessary by whatever may happen later in May. _________________________ SEASON __ APR _ MAY _ JUN _ JUL _ AUG_ SEP _ OCT_ N-D Adjusted Normal 1989-2016____ 15_7_3 __ 100 _ 000__100__100__421__531__321__000 (note that N-D has an actual average of something like 0.4/0.1/0.01 so it rounds down to 000) Your assigned monthlies will be adjusted from these as required, and you will see them in the table of forecasts -- if your June forecast does not match the provisional then the other months will not be adjusted, so your monthlies might not add up. Some of you will probably want to enter each month like last year, and you only need to do that if you don't want to use the already posted provisional. 3. Then if you want to update your monthly forecasts to fit your own estimate, the table will change to reflect your forecasts, but future provisionals will continue to appear unchanged and your ongoing total may continue to be different from your seasonal as a result. There is no requirement for monthly entrants to match their seasonals and monthlies. There will not be any scoring adjustments available for seasonal updates, you can make them, but the contest will not award any different scores for them. 4. Seasonal forecasts are scored from a maximum of 50 points, reduced by the average of one point per error in each category plus that number squared. Example, you predict 11/6/2 and reality is 14/7/4. You then lose (3+9)/2 or 6 points for your named storms, (1+1)/2 or one point for your hurricanes and (2+4)/2 or 3 points for your major hurricanes. Your score is then 50-6-1-3 or 40. 5. Monthly forecasts are scored the same way as above from totals available of 4 (June), 6 (July), 12 (August), 16 (September), 10 (October) and 2 (Nov-Dec) except that June, July and Nov-Dec error reductions are divided by two (e.g., if the normal method would give you 3.0 out of 6.0 for July, the adjusted method gives you 4.5. Monthly forecasts that you submit are subject to 1% reductions for every 3h late (the deadline is 03z of 1st each month except for June 06z). These late penalties will be doubled as soon as a named storm exists in the month in question. The June deadline, however, may be extended slightly to encourage more entries unless named storms are imminent. Expect an absolute cutoff by end of June 3rd with penalties after that. The best entry method is to copy this template and add in your numbers (and name) User Name ___ Seasonal (xx/xx/x) __ APR 1/0/0 _ MAY 0/0/0 _ JUN x/x/x _ JUL x/x/x _ AUG x/x/x _ SEP x/x/x _ OCT x/x/x _ NOV-DEC x/x/x FAQ _ Should I include any May named storm in my seasonal forecast? __ Yes, you are basically forecasting the normal season plus the count for May (which is currently 0/0/0) and you should also include Arlene (1/0/0) from April 2017. What if there's a named storm in May after I enter? __ If you don't edit in that change, I will edit it into your forecast by adding 1/0/0 to your seasonal forecast; if you want to stay at the original prediction despite the May storm and your monthly forecasts as submitted, edit in that request. Nothing gets tabulated until June 4th. What if I (or the NWS) forecast a range? __ The contest will take the median of your various ranges and score those only. If you want to give decimals, we'll score from those. What if I report on a forecast from elsewhere? __ Unless you are involved in making that forecast, then we'll score it but it won't count in the standings. If you are involved in it and want to enter it, make it clear that it's your personal entry. What month does each named storm belong to? __ In this contest, each named storm belongs to whatever month it was first named in (according to the NWS conventions as to time zones etc). Then whatever that storm goes on to do will belong to that same month. So for example, a tropical storm named on Aug 31 will count in the August forecast for all of its exploits as a hurricane or major hurricane in September. The timing of any given storm receiving a number but not a name is irrelevant to the contest. As with last year, where there was one storm that had its hurricane phase in a different month than its tropical storm phase, an alternate scoring table was posted and the same entry won either way. _______________________________________________________________ Good luck. Defending champ is Ohiowx. In 2015 it was Troy1234 with Stebo the winner in 2014. CSU forecast is 11/4/2. I will assign some monthly values to that one scaled down from contest normals. The NHC forecast will be entered as well, when I get the details.
  4. Some of the logistical problems to consider: Main routes will become clogged with traffic and distracted drivers will add to the chaos. No doubt thousands of people will leave too late for the conditions, become stranded on the road rather than in a good place to view, and will get out of their vehicles when they think they must. This will not blend in well with the normal use of interstate highways as fast arteries for interstate commerce. Gas supplies may run low, especially in the 3-6 hours after the eclipse as everyone tries to gas up to go home. Try to plan your eclipse encounter so you are as full as possible just before you need to deploy. There could be long lines at gas stations even just before the eclipse as people think of gassing up then. My plan is to make a right-angle exit on the least travelled road I can find and get 200 miles from the track before needing to fill up. I think that unless you have a very secluded target, you should count on a lot of road congestion even on secondary routes, and keep in mind that it will be very dangerous driving with so many distracted people thinking mostly of where they should stop and where they should turn, etc. From what I'm hearing, avoid western Oregon, it sounds like it will be wall to wall with west coast travellers, the I-5 is a nasty road to drive even in average conditions and this won't be average. If it's hot in the west, as it has been all summer so far, the bottleneck effect will be made worse by overheated vehicles. I am hoping to find that east-central Oregon has a good forecast 36h before the event, and position myself in a remote area of that part of the track, then fine tune my location if mountain effect cloud can be anticipated and avoided. We get a lot of clear weather before noon in the Pacific northwest region so fingers crossed this day will follow the trend.
  5. Table of forecasts for August 2017 FORECASTER __________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Damage in Tolland ______ +3.0 _+2.5 _+2.1 __ +0.5 _+3.0 _+0.9 ____ 0.0 _+3.9 _+3.7 BKViking ______________ +1.9 _+2.1 _+1.7 __ +0.5 _+0.5 _+1.8 ___ +2.9 _+2.8 _+3.0 wxallannj ______________+1.7 _+1.5 _+1.3 __ --0.3 _+2.6 _+1.8 ___ +0.7 _+2.7 _+2.3 dmillz25 _______________+1.7 _+0.7 _--0.5 __ +1.5 _+2.0 _+2.0 ___ +2.8 _+2.5 _+3.3 so_whats_happening ____+1.6 _ +0.8 _+0.6 __ --0.6 _+0.8 _+1.1 ___ +1.1 _+0.8 _+2.3 Tom __________________+1.1 _+0.9 _+0.2 __ +0.6 _+1.1 _+1.1 ___ +1.4 _+0.9 _--0.1 RJay __________________+1.0 _+1.0 _+0.8 ___ 0.0 _+0.5 _+1.0 ____ 0.0 _+1.5 _+2.0 SD ___________________ +1.0 _+1.0 _+0.5 ___ 0.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ +0.5 _+1.0 _+0.5 Consensus ____________ +1.0 _+0.9 _+0.5 ___ 0.0 _+0.5 _+1.0 ___ +0.7 _+1.2 _+2.1 hudsonvalley21 _________+0.6 _+1.1 _+0.9 __ +0.3 _+1.4 __0.0 ___ +0.3 _+0.8 _+2.1 wxdude64 _____________ +0.9 _+0.4 _+0.1 __ --0.6 _+0.5 _+1.1 ___ +1.6 _+1.3 _+2.1 RodneyS _______________+0.2 _+1.0 _+0.7 __ +0.1 _--0.5 _--0.4 ___ --0.8 _--0.2 _+2.0 DonSutherland.1 ________ +0.2 _+0.5 _+0.5 __ --0.3 _--0.3 _--0.4 ___ --2.0 _+0.3 _+3.1 Roger Smith _____________0.0 _--0.5 _--1.0 __ --0.7 _--1.0 _--0.5 ___ +1.5 _--0.7 _+3.7 Normal ________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 Stebo_________________ --1.5 _--1.0 _--0.7 __ --1.0 _--2.0 _--1.5 ___ +3.0 _+2.0 _+2.0 Neckbeard93 ___________--1.9 _--1.0 __ 0.0 __ --1.5 _--1.7 _+0.5 ___ --1.3 _+1.2 _+2.0
  6. 0.0 __ --0.5 __ --1.0 ____ --0.7 __ --1.0 __ --0.5 ____ +1.5 __ --0.7 __ +3.7
  7. Now appears July will finish 2 0 0 thanks to the surprise appearance of Emily near Tampa Bay on the 31st. Under contest rules any further intensification of Emily in August will count for the July monthly values but so far the advisories hold it at TS strength when it emerges into the Atlantic. If that proves to be the case, then scoring for the various entries in the contest would be revised to the following: 2 0 0 __ 6 1 0 0 __ 5.5 2 1 0 __ 5.5 2 1 1 __ 5.0 2 2 0 __ 4.5 0 0 0 __ 4.5 3 0 0 __ 5.5 3 1 0 __ 5.0 3 1 1 __ 4.5 3 2 0 __ 4.0 3 2 1 __ 3.5 4 2 1 __ 2.5
  8. Extreme Forecast Report (July 2017) DCA ( +1.9) edged back into contention. It will be scored as a shared win for neckbeard93 and so_whats_happening (each at +2.1), a no decision for Damage in Tolland (at +2.0 but with a late penalty), and a loss for dmillz25 (+2.3). NYC (+0.3) is a win for the lowest forecast from wxdude64 (+0.5). BOS (--0.9) would be a win for Stebo (--0.5). ORD, ATL, IAH, and DEN as well as SEA are all close to consensus and failed to qualify. PHX (+0.2) is a shared win for the lowest (no typo) forecasts of +1.0 from Neckbeard93 and JBG. The anomaly was a lot higher for the first half but heavy "monsoon" summer storms have kept a few days well below normal (for PHX, 90 is like a cold snap). Normal also scores a win for PHX. UPDATED TABLE OF EXTREME FORECASTS (wins and losses) RJay _____________ 8-0 DonSutherland1 ____ 6-1 Prestige Worldwide __3-0 Damage in Tolland ___ 3-0* Wxdude64 _________ 3-0 so_whats_happening _3-0 Normal ____________3-0 Wxallannj __________3-1 Neckbeard93 _______ 3-1 H2OTown__Wx ____ _2-0 Maxim ____________ 2-0 Dmillz25 ___________2-1 Stebo _____________2-2 Roger Smith _______ 1-0 RodneyS __________ 1-0 JBG ______________ 1-0 CCM ______________ 1-1 ____________________________________________ * no decision for DCA July 2017
  9. The annual race in the original six portion (to be updated in June thread, I have the provisional scores ready) continues to be a three-person race among DonSutherland1, blazess556 and RJay with the chase pack keeping fairly close behind -- the June scoring did not move many from one position to another. Time for the July forecast contest, I hope to alert everyone before the long, long four-day weekend as the penalties will be horrendous by the 5th (I will be sending private messages to anyone who hasn't posted by Friday noon to see if we can avoid that). For this contest, predict the temperature anomalies in F deg (relative to 1981-2010) for the usual nine locations: DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH _____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA Entries are due by 06z Saturday, 1st of July (in other words, Saturday 0200h EDT) and penalties run 1% per 2h late, to 18z July 2nd, then they increase to 1% per hour until they gobble up all 100% of the possible scores early on the 6th. Good luck to all !!
  10. <<< ---=--- 2017 Annual Scoring Summary (Jan-July) ---=--- >>> ... ... ... ... ... ... ... (see post 25 above for confirmed July scoring) ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... Best scores: The first six numbers refer to the six locations, the last two refer to eastern and central division totals. Months won (in this part of the contest) are shown by name after the number codes. There are sometimes ties so the totals may add up higher than the number of months. Meanwhile, best total scores January-July are highlighted in red in the table for six locations, and in bold italic for two groups and for all six. FORECASTER _________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east___ORD_ATL_IAH__ cent ___ TOTAL __ Best scores 1 DonSutherland.1 ____377 _374 _324 __1075___388 _444 _477_1309___2384 _001.112.1.2_ Jan, May 2 RJay ______________330 _403_350 _1083 ___341 _444 _475__1260 ___2343_122.311..2.3_Feb,Apr 3 BKViking __________ 336 _352 _352 __1040 ___357 _415 _360__1132 ___2172 __000.001 4 wxallannj __________351 _334 _374__1059 ___263 _413 _430__1106 ___2165 __002.012..1.0 _Jun 5 Consensus _________322 _334 _295 __ 951 ___334 _411 _425 __1170 ___2121 __010.000 5 dmillz25 ___________354 _327 _320 __1001 ___328 _366 _386__1080 ___2081 __100.101 6 Stebo _____________324 _337 _303 __ 964 ___289 _406 _381 __1076 ___2040 __001.002..1.0 __ Jul 7 hudsonvalley21______297 _323 _290 __ 910 ___336 _406 _367__1109 ___2019 __000.010 8 SD _______________ 334 _341 _299 __ 974 ___342 _349 _336__1027 ___2001 __010.100 9 Tom ______________ 343 _317 _275 __ 935 ___278 _376 _387__1041 ___1976 __000.110 10 RodneyS ___________306 _284 _210 __ 800 ___327 _363 _463__1153 ___1953 __011.200..0..1 _ Mar 11 wxdude64 _________ 337 _310 _297 __ 944 ___280 _327 _336__ 943 ___1887 __120.000..1.0 12 Normal ____________ 318 _337 _300 __ 955 ___297 _278 _320__ 895 ___1850 __000.000.0.0 __ May 12 blazess556~________303 _303 _322 __ 928 ___322 _303 _293__ 918 ___1846 __001.000 13 Damage in Tolland __275 _279 _236 __ 790 ___310 _353 _367__1030 ___1820 __000.010..0.0 14 Roger Smith _______246 _259 _150 __ 655 ___222 _310 _371 __ 903 ___1558 15 Neckbeard93*______196 _218 _145 __ 559 ___332 _328 _332 __ 992 ___1551 __100.000 16 H2Otown_WX~_____263 _270 _278 __811 ___192 _265 _277 __ 734 ___1545 __110.001..1.0 17 so_whats_happening#295_229 _222 __ 746 ___198 _284 _295 __ 777 ___1523 __200.000 18 CCM %%___________136 _106_156 __398 ___146 _134 _126 __406 ___ 804 __000.100..0.1 19 Prestige Worldwide@_111 _107_123 __ 341 ____25 _140 _118 __283 ___ 624 __110.010 20 Maxim@____________80 _ 85 _ 78 __ 243 ____ 50 _150 _142 __342 ___ 585 __100.001 21 JBG % _____________88 _ 64 _ 32 __ 184 ____ 72 _ 60 _ 88 ___220 ___ 404 ________________________________________________________________________________ Updated annual scoring for western and all nine contests January - July 2017 FORECASTER _________DEN_PHX_SEA___TOTAL___Best scores___All nine ( = rank )__Months 1 Rjay _______________ 440 _472 _593___1505 __ 2 0 2 _ Jan,Jul__ 3848 ( = 1) __ FEB, APR,JUL 2 Consensus ___________445 _463 _554 ___1462 __ 1 0 0 _________ 3583 ( = 4) 2 wxallannj ___________ 418 _511 _526 ___1455 __ 0 1 1 __________3620 ( = 3) __ JUN 3 Roger Smith _________383 _433 _614 ___1430 __ 0 0 1 _ Feb _____2988 (= 13) t4 dmillz25 ____________ 432 _403 _540 ___ 1375 __ 1 0 1 _ Apr _____3456 ( = 5) t4 RodneyS ____________414 _493 _468 ___ 1375 __ 1 1 0 ________ _3328 ( = 6) ___ MAR 6 BKViking ____________361 _422 _582 ___ 1365 _________________3537 ( = 4) 7 DonSutherland.1 _____ 431 _469 _456 ___ 1356 __ 2 0 0 _________ 3740 ( = 2) ___JAN, MAY 8 Tom _______________ 341 _481 _530 ___ 1352 _________________3328 ( = 7) 9 wxdude64 ___________401 _406 _514 ___ 1321 __ 1 0 0 _________3208 ( = 11) 10 so_whats_happening#_403 _431 _462 ____1296 __ 0 2 0 _ Mar,May_2819 ( = 15) 11 SD_________________ 406 _425 _462 ___ 1293 ________________ 3294 ( = 8) 12 Damage in Tolland ____292 _443 _527 ___ 1262 __ 0 1 2 _ Jun ____ 3082 ( =12) 13 hudsonvalley21 ______ 359 _424 _476 ___ 1259 _________________3278 ( = 9) 14 Stebo ______________ 391 _394 _437 ___ 1222 __ 1 0 0 _________ 3262 ( = 10) 15 Normal _____________ 346 _392 _450 __ 1188 __ 0 1 0 _________ 3038 ( = 13) 15 H20TownWx~ _______ 375 _352 _441 ___ 1168 __ 0 0 1 _________ 2713 ( = 16) 16 blazess556~ ________ 324 _353 _360 ____1037 __ 1 0 0 _________ 2883 ( = 14) 17 Neckbeard93* _______447 _325 _217 ____ 989 __ 2 1 0 _________ 2540 (= 17) 18 Prestige Worldwide@__ 159 _223 _170 ____ 552 __ 0 1 0 _________ 1176 ( =18) 19 Maxim@ ____________ 161 _133 _176 ____ 440 ________________ 1055 (= 20) 20 CCM %% ___________ 114 _ 94 _156 ____ 364 _________________1168 (= 19) 21 JBG % _______________76 _ 84 __48 ____ 208 __ 0 1 0 __________ 612 (= 21) _______________________________________________________________________ NOTES: * one month missed (Jan). # one month missed (Apr), ~ one month missed (July) @ three months played (Jan, Feb, Mar) %% two months played (May, June) ... % one month played (July) New this month: reports on ranking with late penalties removed Jan late penalty for Blazess556 total of 2, (0,2) -- no change in rank March late penalty deductions: ... Rjay lost 41 (22,19), Damage lost 18 (13,5) and wxdude64 lost 14 (12,2). ... no change in rank for RJay (2nd, 1st, all nine 1st) _ Damage, see July _ wxdude64 would be 3rd not 4th in ... ... ... original six, no change in western or all nine. April late penalty deductions: ... H2O_Town__wx lost 51 (25,26) and Neckbeard93 lost 32 (14,18). ... H2O_Town__wx would edge past Neckbeard93 in original six (they would exchange 15th, 16th), H2O_Town__wx would edge ahead of Normal in western, no change of rank to all nine, Neckbeard no change of rank in western or all nine. May late penalty deductions: ... BKViking lost 32 (20, 12). ... BKViking would move up one spot to 3rd in original six, no changes to western or all nine rankings. June late penalty deductions: ... Stebo lost 39 (24,15). ... Stebo would remain in same rankings in original six and western but would move up two places to 8th overall. July late penalty deductions: ... Damage in Tolland lost 98 (75, 23). annual total now 116 (88, 28) ... Damage in Tolland would move up three places in the original six (to 10th), two in the western (to 10th) but would remain 12th overall, not catching 11th place wxdude64 (even before wxdude64 got his own boost up). __ ranks for Consensus and Normal do not affect ranks of lower scoring forecasters. Any questions about relative performance of those who have missed one or two months will be addressed at end of year for your inrterest. It all depends on which months were missed, obviously July was a bigger hit than February to point totals (because the July forecasts were generally higher scoring).
  11. Thanks for the above post, I would suggest that you post that in your regional (southeast forum) discussion. If it disappears, it's because a moderator moved it there. Final scoring for July 2017 FORECASTER _____________DCA_NYC_BOS___east____ORD_ATL_IAH___cent____TOTAL Stebo ____________________82 _ 92 _ 92___ 266 ____92 _ 76 _ 98 ___ 266 _____ 532 wxallannj _________________90 _ 82 _ 74 ___ 246 ____88 _ 96 _ 98 ___ 282 _____ 528 RJay _____________________82 _ 86 _ 62 ___ 230 ____98 _ 94 _ 98 ___290 _____ 520 SD ______________________ 82 _ 86 _ 72___ 240 ____ 98 _ 90 _ 88 ___ 276 _____ 516 Consensus _______________ 90 _ 80 _ 60 ___ 230 ____ 92 _ 90 _ 96 ___ 278 _____ 508 BKViking _________________ 86 _ 82 _ 62 ___ 230 ____ 96 _ 80 _ 92 ___ 268 _____ 498 hudsonvalley21 ____________74 _ 90 _ 70 ___ 234 ____ 92 _ 82 _ 88 ___ 262 _____ 496 Normal __________________ 62 _ 94 _ 82 ___ 238 ____ 88 _ 80 _ 82 ___ 250 _____ 488 Tom _____________________90 _ 70 _ 54 ___ 214 ____ 76_100_ 96 ___ 272 _____ 486 DonSutherland.1 ___________88 _ 80 _ 64 ___ 232 ____ 86 _ 86 _ 78 ___ 250 _____ 482 wxdude64 ________________72 _ 96 _ 82 ___ 250 ____ 78 _ 60 _ 82 ___ 220 _____ 470 Roger Smith ______________ 92 _ 82 _ 52 ___ 226 ____ 92 _ 70 _ 82 ___ 244 _____ 470 Neckbeard93 ______________96 _ 78 _ 44 ___ 218 ____ 88 _ 90 _ 72 ___ 250 _____ 468 RodneyS _________________ 92 _ 74 _ 46 ___ 212 ____ 94 _ 78 _ 80 ___ 252 _____ 464 dmillz25 __________________92 _ 76 _ 60 ___ 228 ____ 66 _ 80 _ 78 ___ 224 _____ 452 so_whats_happening _______ 96 _ 72 _ 56 ___ 224 ____ 60 _ 64 _ 92 ___ 216 _____ 440 JBG _____________________ 88 _ 64 _ 32 ___ 184 ____ 72 _ 60 _ 88 ___ 220 _____ 404 Damage in Tolland__________98 _ 76_ 60 ___ 234 ____ 60 _ 72 _ 94 ___ 226 __ 460 ________ (-16%) __________82 _ 64 _ 50 ___ 196 ____ 50 _ 60 _ 79 ___ 189 _____ 385 Final scoring for western and all nine contests, July 2017 FORECASTER ____________ DEN_PHX_SEA _____ TOTAL __________ All Nine (= rank) RJay ____________________ 94 _ 64 _100_______258 ____________778 ( = 1 ) so_whats_happening _______94 _ 72 _ 90 _______ 256 ____________ 696 ( = 12) Neckbeard93 _____________ 74 _ 84 _ 92 _______ 250 ____________ 718 ( = 7 ) wxdude64 _______________ 94 _ 64 _ 92 _______ 250 ____________ 720 ( = 6 ) RodneyS _________________82 _ 68 _ 98 _______ 248 ____________ 712 ( = 8t) Consensus _______________ 90 _ 64 _ 94 _______ 248 ____________ 756 ( = 3 ) wxallannj ________________ 88 _ 78 _ 76 _______ 242 ____________ 770 ( = 2 ) BKViking _________________82 _ 50 _ 98 _______ 230 ____________ 728 ( = 4 ) hudsonvalley21 ___________ 70 _ 78 _ 82 _______ 230 ____________ 726 ( = 5 ) SD ______________________76 _ 64 _ 88 _______ 228 ____________ 744 ( = 3 ) Tom ____________________ 74 _ 80 _ 72 _______ 226 ____________ 712 ( = 8t) dmillz25 _________________ 84 _ 54 _ 86 _______ 224 ____________ 676 ( = 14) Normal __________________ 56 _ 96 _ 68 _______ 220 ____________ 708 ( =11) DonSutherland.1 __________ 50 _ 76 _ 90 _______ 216 ____________ 698 ( = 11) Roger Smith ______________78 _ 50 _ 82 _______ 210 ____________ 680 ( = 13) JBG _____________________76 _ 84 _ 48 _______ 208 ____________ 612 ( = 15 ) Stebo ___________________ 88 _ 54 _ 38 _______ 180 ____________ 712 ( = 8t) Damage in Tolland _________24 _ 44 _ 72 _ 140 _________ (-16%) ________ 20 _ 37 _ 60 _______ 117 _____________502 ( = 16 )
  12. From the looks of ALB radar, parts of w CT could see 4-8 inches of rain later today as the low slides east-south-east and fronts continue to back door then later remain in situ (can see double frontal structure at present, roughly 100 miles apart, each of these will maybe push another 50-80 miles then the large area of heavy rain in eastern NY will become the dominant feature for CT). I came in to look at your discussion because I have friends driving east to BOS-Fall River area from w NY at present, have told them they might be following back edge but worst of this is pushing south of their route ... models seem to spare s.e. MA from heaviest rain, is that your thinking? What about Providence if they go that way?
  13. Reports on anomalies and projections ... _________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ___ ( 7 d) ________ +2.5_ +1.3_ +2.0 ___ +2.0_ +0.5_ +1.9 ___ +3.9_ +4.4_ +1.9 ___ (10 d) ________ +1.7_ +0.7_ +2.0 ___ +1.3_ +0.6_ +1.0 ___ +4.1_ +4.7_ +2.1 ___ (15 d) ________ +2.8_ +0.8_ --0.2 ___ +0.7_ +1.0_ +0.6 ___ +2.6_ +3.6_ +1.5 ___ (18 d) ________ +2.8_ +1.0_ +0.1 ____ 0.0_ +0.6_ +0.5 ___ +2.3_ +2.0_ +1.3 ___ (21 d) ________ +3.6_ +2.0_ +1.2 ___ +0.8_ +1.1_ +0.6 ___ +2.8_ +1.4_ +1.2 ___ (24 d) ________ +3.5_ +1.5_ +0.6 ___ +1.0_ +1.4_ +0.6 ___ +2.9_ +0.5_ +1.5 ___ (26 d) ________ +3.0_ +0.7_ --0.2 ___ +0.9_ +1.4_ +0.7 ___ +2.9_ +0.3_ +1.7 ___ (28 d) ________ +2.6_ +0.5_ --0.4 ___ +0.8_ +1.4_ +0.9 ___ +2.8_ +0.3_ +1.5 ___ (29 d) ________ +2.2_ +0.3_ --0.6 ___ +0.7_ +1.4_ +1.0 ___ +2.6_ +0.3_ +1.4 ___ (30 d) ________ +1.9_ +0.2_ --0.8 ___ +0.7_ +1.3_ +1.1 ___ +2.4_ +0.1_ +1.5 ___(31 d) ________ +1.9_+0.3_ --0.9 ___ +0.6_+1.0_+0.9___+2.2_+0.2_+1.6 Final anomalies are now confirmed and are shown in bold type. Final and updated annual scoring posted below.
  14. Seasonal Maxima for 2017 contest -- Updated scoring Normal will sit this one out and consensus is the average rather than the median this time. Once this table appears, your entries are set, and have been cross-checked for accuracy of posting. Forecasts appear in the order of DCA then if tied, NYC and if still tied, BOS etc. "To date" will be continuously updated, and shows the highest value of 2017 so far. This table will remain in the May thread into July then will migrate over to July as we get closer to final values. So it's being updated here through June. In this table of entries, current scores are shown ahead of your name. Scores are total errors to date (e.g., 2 deg = 2 points). The total score is partly subject to improvement unless your forecast was lower than the maximum to date, then your score can possibly increase for that location. The most widespread locked in points are for SEA (already 96) and DEN (already 100). New as of July 22nd, scores will appear in order generated by the total errors to date, with the original entries and the totals shown in a second (lower) table which starts with highest DCA forecast, and then lists all forecasters in that order, using the first broken tie where required. These scoring tables will migrate to the August thread when that month has started. TABLE 1: Scoring error points (adjusted when seasonal max changes) -- red numbers denote errors that can increase, black numbers can decrease (your forecast higher than seasonal max to date). Bold zero indicates any forecast currently on the mark for seasonal max to date (these can only increase too). Total score to date is the first entry in each line. Total points subject to further increase is the last entry. Score / FORECASTER _______DCA_NYC_BOS____ORD_ATL_IAH____DEN_PHX_SEA __ Pts 21 _ CCM ________________ 2 __ 3 __ 2 ______ 0 __ 6 __ 3 ______ 2 __ 0 __ 3 ____ 3 22 _ BKViking _____________3 __ 4 __ 2 ______ 4 __ 5 __ 0 ______ 2 __ 2 __ 0 ____ 2 23 _ wxdude64 ____________2 __ 5 __ 2 ______ 2 __ 6 __ 3 ______ 0 __ 1 __ 2 ____ 3 23 _ wxallannj _____________1 __ 3 __ 0 ______ 3 __ 6 __ 3 ______ 3 __ 2 __ 2 ____ 5 25 _ RodneyS _____________ 0 __ 3 __ 2 ______ 2 __ 5 __ 4 ______ 2 __ 3 __ 4 ____ 9 26 _ so_whats_happening ___4 __ 5 __ 1 ______ 3 __ 7 __ 0 ______ 3 __ 1 __ 2 ____ 5 27 _ Damage in Tolland _____2 __ 5 __ 3 ______ 5 __ 4 __ 2 ______ 1 __ 1 __ 4 ____ 6 29 _ Consensus (average) ___3 __ 5 __ 2 ______ 4 __ 7 __ 4 ______ 0 __ 1 __ 3 ____ 4 30 _ Stebo _______________ 3 __ 5 __ 1 ______ 6 __ 5 __ 4 ______ 0 __ 2 __ 4 ____ 6 33 _ dmillz25 _____________ 3 __ 6 __ 4 ______ 7 __ 8 __ 3 ______ 1 __ 0 __ 1 ____ 2 34 _ Neckbeard93 _________ 3 __ 6 __ 3 ______ 1 __ 8 __ 3 ______ 2 __ 1 __ 7 ____10 35 _ RJay ________________ 5 __ 6 __ 3 ______ 8 __ 8 __ 3 ______ 0 __ 1 __ 1 ____ 2 35 _ Tom ________________ 4 __ 5 __ 2 ______ 9 __10 __ 2 ______ 1 __ 2 __ 0 ____ 2 35 _ hudsonvalley21 _______ 3 __ 5 __ 5 ______ 9 __ 7 __ 1 ______ 2 __ 1 __ 2 _____2 40 _ H2O_Town__Wx ______ 0 __ 2 __ 3 ______ 5 __ 9 __ 6 ______ 5 __ 1 __ 9 ____18 42 _ SD _________________ 6 __ 6 __ 2 ______ 1 __ 9 __ 7 ______ 4 __ 3 __ 4 ____11 44 _ Roger Smith __________4 __ 3 __ 3 ______ 4 __ 7 __ 8 _____ 10 __ 1 __ 4 ____ 0 45 _ blazess556 ___________ 5 __ 7 __ 5 ______ 3 __ 7 __ 7 _____ 2 __ 1 __ 8 ____11 47 _ DonSutherland.1 ______ 5 __ 7 __ 5 ______ 4 __ 6 __ 6 ______3 __ 2 __ 9 ____14 Table 2: FORECAST SEASONAL MAX VALUES (red is highest forecast, blue is lowest forecast) 42_ SD ___________________ 104 _ 100 __ 97 ______ 96 _ 103 _ 107 ______ 96 _ 116 __ 92 47_ DonSutherland.1 ________ 103 _ 101 _ 100 ______ 99 _ 100 _ 106 ______ 97 _ 117 __ 87 45_ blazess556 _____________ 103 _ 101 _ 100 ______ 98 _ 101 _ 107 ______ 98 _ 118 __ 88 35_ RJay __________________ 103 _ 100 __ 98 _____ 103 _ 102 _ 103 _____ 100 _ 118 __ 95 35_ Tom __________________ 102 __ 99 __ 97 _____ 104 _ 104 _ 102 _____ 101 _ 117 __ 96 26_ so_whats_happening _____102 __ 99 __ 96 ______ 98 _ 101 _ 100 ______ 97 _ 120 __ 94 44_ Roger Smith ____________102 __ 97 __ 98 ______ 99 _ 101 _ 108 _____ 110 _ 120 _ 100 33_ dmillz25 _______________ 101 _ 100 __ 99 _____ 102 _ 102 _ 103 ______ 99 _ 119 __ 95 34_ Neckbeard93 ___________ 101 _ 100 __ 98 ______ 96 _ 102 _ 103 ______ 98 _ 118 __ 89 29_ Consensus (average) _____101 __ 99 __ 97 ______ 99 _ 101 _ 104 _____ 100 _ 118 __ 93 35_ hudsonvalley21 _________ 101 __ 99 _ 100 _____ 104 _ 101 _ 101 ______ 98 _ 120 __ 98 30_ Stebo _________________ 101 __ 99 __ 96 _____ 101 __ 99 _ 104 _____ 100 _ 117 __ 92 22_ BKViking _______________101 __ 98 __ 97 ______ 99 __ 99 _ 100 _____ 102 _ 117 __ 96 27_ Damage in Tolland _______100 __ 99 __ 98 _____ 100 __ 98 _ 102 ______ 99 _ 118 __ 92 23_ wxdude64 ______________100 __ 99 __ 97 ______ 97 _ 100 _ 103 _____ 100 _ 118 __ 94 21_ CCM __________________ 100 __ 97 __ 97 ______ 95 _ 100 _ 103 _____ 102 _ 119 __ 93 25_ RodneyS ________________98 __ 97 __ 97 ______ 97 __ 99 _ 104 ______ 98 _ 116 __ 92 40_ H2O_Town__Wx _________ 98 __ 96 __ 92 _____ 100 _ 103 _ 106 ______ 95 _ 118 __ 87 23_ wxallannj _______________ 97 __ 97 __ 95 ______ 98 _ 100 _ 103 _____ 103 _ 117 __ 94 Max to date _____________ 98 __ 94 __ 95 ____ 95 __94 __100___ 100 _ 119 _ 96 (updated through July 29)
  15. Table of Forecasts July 2017 FORECASTER ______________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ____ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA dmillz25 __________________+2.3 _ +1.5 _ +1.1 ___ +2.3 _ +2.0 _ +2.0 ___ +3.0 _ +2.5 _ +2.3 Neckbeard93 ______________+2.1 _ +1.4 _ +1.9 ___ +1.2 _ +1.5 _ --0.5 ___ +3.5 _ +1.0 _ +2.0 so_whats_happening _______ +2.1 _ +1.7 _ +1.3 ___ +2.6 _ --0.8 _ +0.5 ___ +1.9 _ +1.6 _ +1.1 Damage in Tolland__ (-16%)_ +2.0 _ +1.5 _ +1.1 ___ +2.6 _ +2.4 _ +0.6 ___ +6.0 _ +3.0 _ +3.0 RodneyS _________________ +1.5 _ +1.6 _ +1.8 ___ +0.3 _ --0.1 _ --0.1 ___ +3.1 _ +1.8 _ +1.7 Roger Smith ______________ +1.5 _ +1.2 _ +1.5 ___ +1.0 _ --0.5 __ 0.0 ___ +3.3 _ +2.7 _ +2.5 Tom _____________________+1.4 _ +1.6 _ +1.4 ___ +1.8 _ +1.0 _ +1.1 ___ +0.9 _ +1.2 _ +0.2 wxallannj ________________ +1.4 _ +1.2 _ +0.4 ___ +1.2 _ +0.8 _ +1.0 ___ +2.8 _ +1.3 _ +0.4 Consensus _______________ +1.4 _ +1.3 _ +1.1 ___ +1.0 _ +0.5 _ +0.7 ___ +2.7 _ +2.0 _ +1.3 JBG _____________________ +1.3 _ +2.1 _ +2.5 ___ +2.0 _ --1.0 _ +1.5 ___ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ --1.0 DonSutherland.1 ___________ +1.3 _ +1.3 _ +0.9 ___ --0.1 _ +0.3 _ --0.2 ___ --0.3 _ +1.4 _ +1.1 BKViking _________________ +1.2 _ +1.2 _ +1.0 ___ +0.8 _ +2.0 _ +1.3 ___ +3.1 _ +2.7 _ +1.5 RJay _____________________+1.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ___ +0.5 _ +0.7 _ +0.8 ___ +2.5 _ +2.0 _ +1.6 SD ______________________ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 ___ +0.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 ___ +1.0 _ +2.0 _ +1.0 Stebo ____________________ +1.0 _ +0.7 _ --0.5 ___ +1.0 _ +2.2 _ +1.0 ___ +2.8 _ +2.5 _ --1.5 hudsonvalley21 ____________ +0.6 _ +0.8 _ +0.6 ___ +0.2 _ +0.1 _ +0.3 ___ +0.7 _ +1.3 _ +0.7 wxdude64 _________________+0.5 _ +0.5 __ 0.0 ___ --0.5 _ --1.0 __ 0.0 ___ +2.5 _ +2.0 _ +2.0 Normal ____________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____________________________________________________________________________ Welcome to JBG ... consensus is median value, average of 8th and 9th ranked forecasts. (edit note: in entering forecasts to excel file and cross-checking, noted error on my part for Tom NYC, changed to +1.6 as per his entry -- was +1.8 in table).
  16. Okay, then, I didn't receive any anonymous comments, will just go with what we already have in place and mention that as of now (6th: 12z having passed) penalties are all-consuming and so entries are closed. Any forecasts that might appear later than this would not be scored. Will post a table of entries later today.
  17. Hope you're all enjoying your fourth of July very long weekend, we just had the standard long weekend here. Well, as to late penalties, I can see that blazess556 and H2OTown_Wx have not entered yet and they could perhaps remember tomorrow which is going to get into a horrific penalty of about 70%. Damage in Tolland is looking at perhaps 16 per cent. If I reduced these present and future penalties, I would have to revise any other scores earlier in the contest that got a late penalty. Quite willing to consider all options, it's not totally up to me as it's your contest and I am just serving as scorekeeper. If the field generally speaking wished to reduce the penalties, I could do that but it would have to apply retroactively to be fair. The main argument for not reducing is the "rules are rules" concept, whereas the main argument for adjusting is perhaps to keep our rather small contest field intact. I am not sure whether entering five days late is really worth a 70% penalty but I can't go much lower than 40, you must gain some advantage by seeing those extra days and the values already in the books. Let me know what you think, by private message if you prefer. I will follow consensus on this but I don't want to annoy anybody who takes the time to enter before the deadline every month either. Tough work this contest organizing (you hate to assess late penalties, believe me, if you think I am sitting here cackling like Montgomery Burns, not the case, even that year when I was ahead, well maybe a bit then )
  18. June ended up 2 0 0 in our contest ... Dmillz25 and Stebo got the full 4.0 points for June as a result. Everyone who went for 1 0 0 or 2 1 0 will score 3.5. 1 1 0 will score 3.0 0 0 0 will score 2.5
  19. Okay then ... +1.5 _ +1.2 _ +1.5 ___ +1.0 __ --0.5 __ 0.0 ____ +3.3 __ +2.7 __ +2.5
  20. Four Seasons contest update (spring 2017) Forgot to update this sub-contest after May results. This shows the points awarded for March-April-May totals and combines with winter 2016-17 as reported in February. Only scores from those who entered two of three spring months are shown in this table. Scores marked * are for two of three months only. These would probably have gained some points in this contest at the rate of scoring, had they played all three months. SPRING 2017 Original six (eastern and central) _____ Western ______________________ All Nine Rank_Forecaster _ Total _ Points ____ Rank_Forecaster _ Total _ Points ___Rank_Forecaster _ Total _ Pts 1 _ _ RodneyS ___1015 ___10 ______1 _ _ H2OTown_Wx _651 __10 ____ 1 _ _ RodneyS __ 1598 _ 10 2 _ _ DonS _____ 1000 ___ 7 ______ 2 _ _ RJay ________ 603 ___ 7 ____ 2 _ _ DonS _____ 1554 __ 7 3 _ _ Damage in T_956 ___ 6 ______ 3 _ _ wxallannj ____ 598 ___ 6 ____ 3 _ _H2OTown_Wx 1537_ 6 4 _ _ Tom _______930 ___ 5 ______ 4 _ _ Roger Smith___ 592 ___ 5 ____ 4 _ _ Dmillz25 __ 1505 __ 5 5 _ _ blazess556 __920 ___ 4 ______ 5 _ _ Dmillz25______ 591 ___ 4 ____ 5 _ _ Tom _____ 1490 __ 4 6 _ _ Dmillz25 ____914 ___ 3 ______ 6 _ _ RodneyS _____ 583 ___ 3 ____ 6 _ _ wxallannj__ 1480 __ 3 7 _ _ wxdude64 __ 896 ___ 2 ______ 7_ _ SD ___________561 ___ 2 ____ 7 _ _ Damage in T 1469 __ 2 8 _ _ BKViking ___ 893 ___ 1 ______ 8 _ _ Tom _________ 560 ___ 1 ____ 8 _ _ BKViking ___1418 __ 1 9 _ _ H2OTown_Wx 886 __ 1 ______ 9 _ _ DonSutherland _554 ___ 1 ____ 9 _ _ SD ________1414 __ 1 10 _ _ wxallannj ___ 882 __ 1 ______10 _ _ BKViking ______525 ___ 1 ___10 _ _RJay ______ 1411 __ 1 11 _ _ SD ________ 853 __ -- ______11 _ _ Damage in T __ 513 ___ -- ___ 11 _ _wxdude64 __1365 __ -- 12 _ _ Stebo ______ 834 __ -- ______12 _ _ hudsonvalley21_472 ___ --___ 12 _ _blazess556 _ 1328 __ -- 13 _ _ RJay _______ 808 __ -- ______13 _ _ wxdude64 ____ 469 ___ -- ___13 _ _hudsonv 21 _ 1269 __ -- 14 _ _ hudsonv21__ 797 __ -- ______ 14 _ _so_whats_happ*_448___ -- ___14 _ _Stebo _____ 1255 __ -- 15 _ _ neckbeard*_ 728 __ -- ______ 15 _ _ neckbeard93* __423 ___ -- ___15 _ _Roger Smith _1246 __ -- 16 _ _ Roger Smith 654 __ -- ______ 16_ _ Stebo _________421 ___ -- ___16 _ _neckbeard*__1171 __ -- 17 _ _ sowhatshap*_426 __ -- _____ 17 _ _ blazess556 _____408 ___ -- ___17 _ _sowhatshap*_ 874 __ -- 6 _ _ Consensus__ 915 __ 3 _______ 6 _ _ Consensus______589 ___ 3_____ 5 _ _Consensus__ 1504 __ 4 11t_ _ Normal ____ 853 __ -- ______10 _ _ Normal ________ 534 ___ 1____ 11 _ _Normal ____1387 __ -- WINTER 2016-2017 Original six (eastern and central) _____ Western ______________________ All Nine Rank_Forecaster _ Total _ Points ____ Rank_Forecaster _ Total _ Points ___Rank_Forecaster _ Total _ Pts 1 _ _ RJay _______ 885 ___ 10 ______1 _ _ RJay ______ 674 ___ 10 _____ 1 _ _ RJay _______ 1559 _ 10 2 _ _ Blazess556 __ 796 ___ 7 ______ 2 _ _ DonSutherland_634__ 7 ______2 _ _ Blazess556 ___1413 __ 7 3 _ _ DonSutherland 752 ___ 6 ______ 3 _ _ dmillz25 ___ 628___ 6 ______ 3 _ _ DonSutherland 1386 __ 6 4 _ _Maxim _______740 ___ 5 ______ 4 _ _ Blazess556 _ 617___ 5 ______ 4 _ _ Maxim ______ 1294 __ 5 5 _ _ BKViking ____ 701 ___ 4 ______ t5 _ _Stebo _____ 614 ___ 4 ______ 5 _ _ BKViking ____ 1276 __ 4 6 _ _Stebo _______ 609 ___ 3 ______ t5 _ _Tom _______610 ___ 4 ______ 6 _ _dmillz25 ____ 1224 __ 3 7 _ _ Damage in T_ 605 ___ 2 ______ 7 _ _ BKViking ____575 ___ 2 ______ 7 _ _ Stebo ______1223 __ 2 8 _ _ dmillz25 ____ 601 ___ 1 ______ 8 _ _ Damage in T_ 574 ___ 1 ______ 8 _ _ Damage in T_ 1179 __ 1 9 _ _ wxallannj ____595 ___ 1 ______ 9 _ _ wxdude64 __ 560 ____ 1 _____t9 _ _ hudsonvalley _1124 __ 1 10 _ _ hudsonvalley_ 569 ___ 1 _____t10 _ _hudsonvalley_555 ____ 1 _____t9_ _ wxdude64 ___ 1124 __ 1 11 _ _ wxdude64___ 564 ___ - _____t10 _ _H2OTown_wx_555 ____1 _____11_ _ wxallannj ____ 1098 __ - 12 _ _ H2OTown_wx_511 ___ - ______12 _ _Maxim _____ 554 ____ - _____12_ _ H2OTown_wx_1066 __ - 13 _ _ so_whats_hap_499 ___ - _____ 13 _ _Roger Smith_ 508____ - _____ 13_ _ Tom ________1037 __ - 14 _ _ RodneyS ____ 491 ___ - ______14 _ _RodneyS ____506____ - _____14_ _ so_whats_hap_1003 __ - 15 _ _ SD ________ 459 ___ - ______15 _ _so_whats_hap 504____ - _____15_ _ RodneyS _____ 997 __ - 16 _ _ Prestige WW _452* ___ - ______16 _ _wxallannj __ 503_____- _____16_ _ SD __________ 935 __ - 17 _ _ Tom _______ 427 ____ - ______17 _ _SD ________476 ____ - _____17_ _ Roger Smith ___865 __ - 18 _ _ Roger Smith _ 357 ___ - ______18 _ _Prestige WW_363*____ - _____18_ _ Prestige WW__ 815* _ - 7_ _ Consensus __ 608 ___ 2 ______ 7 _ _Consensus __ 583 ____ 2 _____ 8_ _ Consensus ___ 1191 __ 1 19 _ _ Normal_____ 324 ___ - ______18 _ _Normal _____446 ____ - _____19_ _ Normal ______ 770 __ - * Prestige Worldwide missed Dec 2016, ranked 2nd, 13th and 3rd for Jan-Feb TOTAL POINTS (winter + spring) Original Six ___________________ Western ________________________ All Nine DonSutherland1 ___ 13 _________ RJay ___________ 17 _____________ DonSutherland1 ____ 13 Blazess556 _______ 11 _________ H2OTown__Wx___ 11 _____________ RJay ______________11 RodneyS _________ 10 _________ Dmillz25 ________ 10 _____________ RodneyS ___________10 RJay ____________ 10 __________DonSutherland1 ___8 _____________ DMillz25 ____________8 Damage in Tolland __8 __________wxallannj ________ 6 _____________ Blazess556 __________ 7 Tom _____________ 5 __________ Roger Smith _____ 5 _____________ H2OTown__ Wx ______ 6 BKViking __________ 5 __________blazess556 ______ 5 _____________ Maxim ______________ 5 Maxim ____________ 5 __________Tom __________ 5 ______________ BKViking ____________ 5 Dmillz25 __________ 4 __________ Stebo __________ 4 _____________ Tom ________________ 4 Stebo _____________3 __________ RodneyS _______ 3 _____________ Damage in Tolland _____ 3 wxdude64 _________ 2 __________ BKViking _______ 3 _____________ wxallannj ____________ 3 wxallannj __________2 __________ SD ____________ 2 _____________ Stebo _______________ 2 H2OTown_Wx ______1 __________ Damage in Tol ___ 1 _____________ hudsonvalley21 _______ 1 hudsonvalley21 _____ 1 _________ hudsonvalley21 ___ 1 _____________ wxdude64 ___________ 1 _____________________________ wxdude64 ________1 _____________ SD _________________ 1 Consensus _________ 5 _________ Consensus _______ 5 _____________ Consensus ___________ 5 Normal ____________ 0 _________ Normal _________ 1 ______________ Normal _____________ 0
  21. For the regular temperature forecast contest in May, predict the anomalies in F deg relative to 1981-2010 normal values at DCA _ NYC _ BOS ____ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA (late penalties after 06z May 1st at 1% per 2h to 18z May 2 and then 1% per hour) Also, regular entrants can add seasonal max forecasts any time before May 15, a separate table will be developed from those predictions after May 15 so no requirement to repost, just edit them in if you want. Anyone who wants to enter just the seasonal max contest is welcome to do so in this thread before end of May 15th.
  22. I tried for the 1984 total eclipse in northern NC (something like late May, can't remember now) and got mega-clouded-out, pre-internet so not much chance of fine tuning but it was deadly overcast and raining everywhere along the track -- so that was interesting too, it gets extremely dark under cloud cover for two or three minutes. Anyway, saw the Blue Ridge parkway on that trip so not a total bust. (hoping to go 2 for 3 on this one)
  23. Will be there, night of August 19th probably in Utah finishing up a few days of holidays, make a decision where to see it, find a remote campsite within 2-3 hours of track Sunday 20th, and hit the best view weather forecasting can provide (Monday August 21) at 10:22 a.m. PDT around Baker City OR or 11:32 MDT Rexburg ID (times approx). Other locations being considered range from Madras OR to Casper WY. Would avoid the Oregon coast even if skies clear, traffic congestion around Lincoln City OR is always a problem and with half of Portland there to see this, a no go zone. Would also not be leaving a location to the last minute near I-5 (Albany OR) as it could get very congested along the interstate. Best bet for clear skies by climatology is the OR-ID border near Huntingdon OR (last exit in Oregon from I-84, 70 miles northwest Boise which is just outside the path, 70% chance). The good thing about a morning eclipse is, afternoon convection over the inland western valleys and ranges not yet underway and if a bit of that has started, the cooling effect of the eclipse will suppress it further. In Nebraska by the way, Grand Island is near the center line (2 min 30 sec totality) and that's right at 1:00 p.m. CDT. Casper WY is around 11:45 MDT and it's also right on the line. Nebraska chasers are probably going to be dealing with a frontal system somewhere in that state, would not be too fixed on one location and time (it moves very fast, takes about 15 minutes to cross each state). Definitely check the latest guidance morning of, and avoid obvious frontal cloud zones. Saw a total eclipse in Virginia Beach in March 1970, awesome display, the diamond ring effect is stunning (at both ends of totality). Also quite awe-inspiring is the rapid descent into darkness and natural signs on display such as birds calling. Don't miss this one if you have a chance (but don't take my campsite). Motels in the totality path and nearby are already fully booked and charging astronomical rates. Not sure how far outside the zone this now applies, a month ago the rates were holding near regular prices at 100 miles outside the zone (not a bad option given the late morning to afternoon timing). You need a plan where you camp outside the zone or cheap motel well outside the zone, and drive in to make it feasible. Helps if you live in that nearby stretch, I suppose worst case scenario would be to pull an all-nighter (from almost anywhere in the U.S.A.) and just be there, you'll get your sleep in a rest stop and then figure out the details of getting home again.
  24. Extreme Forecast Update for June 2017 DCA (+2.1) missed out by 0.1 as third highest forecast was high score. NYC is well inside our range of forecasts (+0.6) and will not qualify. BOS (+1.8) is a win for wxallannj (+1.7) and a loss for CCM (+2.1). ORD (+3.5) gives CCM a win at +3.5. ATL (--0.7) oddly will qualify as our lowest forecast was 0.0 from RJay and Normal. IAH (--0.3) is a win for DonSutherland1 at -0.2. DEN was near the extreme high forecast from me (+4.0) but finished a lot lower at +2.1. PHX (+3.8) gives Damage in Tolland a win (+3.0). SEA (+2.0) is a win for Damage (+2.0) and a loss for wxallannj (+2.8). UPDATED TABLE OF EXTREME FORECASTS (wins and losses) RJay _____________ 8-0 DonSutherland1 ____ 6-1 Prestige Worldwide __3-0 Damage in Tolland ___ 3-0 Wxallannj __________3-1 H2OTown__Wx ____ 2-0 Maxim ____________ 2-0 Wxdude64 _________ 2-0 Dmillz25 ___________2-0 so_whats_happening _2-0 Roger Smith _______ 1-0 RodneyS __________ 1-0 Normal ____________2-0 Stebo _____________1-2 Neckbeard93 _______ 1-1 CCM ______________ 1-1 ____________________________________________ .
  25. The annual race (updated in May thread) has RJay, blazess556 and DonSutherland in a really close battle with the chase pack not that far behind. Your host, however, is so far behind I might just wait at the finish line. Time for the June forecast contest, make a note, enjoy your Memorial Day long weekend and post some forecasts on Tuesday or Wednesday, it's still on time. Also, a reminder, there is a tropical season contest and that can be found over in the Tropical Headquarters thread. I know several of you like to enter this one, no firm deadline but penalties will start to apply (slowly) in June. For this contest, predict the temperature anomalies in F deg (relative to 1981-2010) for the usual nine locations: DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH _____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA Entries are due by 06z Thursday, 1st of June (in other words, Thursday 0200h EDT) and penalties run 1% per 2h late, to 18z June 2nd, then they increase to 1% per hour until they gobble up all 100% of the possible scores early on the 6th. Good luck to all !!