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Roger Smith

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  1. --- -- <<<<==== Annual Updated Scoring Jan - June 2018 ====>>>> -- ---- Part One: Eastern and Central (Original Six) ... best scores, first six numbers are for six locations, next two for eastern and central totals, then months won (red) ... station totals in red indicate best total scores, eastern and central in bold indicate best subtotals. ... when normal or consensus have high scores, forecasters with high scores also shown. June based on provisional scoring ... May best scores indicated for both "AfewUniverses b n" and if he had one, for any regular, marked* ... these second awards would be withdrawn if "AfewU bn" enters at least five months including May by end of year (did not enter June). ... as an example, 2* for me at DCA would revert to 1 if withdrawn, any 1* would revert to 0 (these may change to higher values in later months) FORECASTER _______ DCA _NYC _BOS ___ east ____ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ cent ___ TOTAL __ Best scores Roger Smith ________398 _392 _412 ___1202 ____ 292 _354 _218 ____ 864 ___ 2066 __2*3*3 03*1 .3.1 __ MAY so_whats_happening _246 _295 _350 ____ 891 ____ 313 _332 _314 ____ 959___ 1850 ___ 000 111 .0.1 __ FEB hudsonvalley21 _____ 295 _304 _310 ____ 909 ____ 227 _335 _375 ____ 937 ___ 1846 ___ 000 001 .0.0 DonSutherland.1 ___ 334 _326 _344 ____1004 ____ 263 _318 _257 ____ 838 ___ 1842 ___ 100.100 .0.0 wxdude64 _________ 326 _321 _348 ____ 995 ____ 268 _311 _252 ____ 831 ___ 1826 ___ 110 000 .1.0 jaxjagman _________ 298 _278 _342 ____ 918 ____ 256 _344 _300 ____ 900 ___ 1818 ___ 001 000 .0.0 ___Consensus ______ 295 _303 _336 ____ 934 ____ 263 _312 _273 ____ 848 ___ 1782 ___ 000 100 .0.0 Scotty Lightning (SD) _311 _301 _386 ____ 998 ____ 297 _263 _219 ____ 779 ___ 1777 ___ 000 100 .0.1 wxallannj __________ 290 _328 _340 ____ 958 ____ 266 _252 _293 ____ 811 ___ 1769 ___ 000 001 BKViking ___________281 _321 _350 ____ 952 ____ 221 _303 _281 ____ 805 ___ 1757 ___ 000 000 .0.1 ___Normal _________320 _313 _379 ____1012 ____ 306 _261 _169 ____ 736 ___ 1748 ___ 000 101 .0.0 RJay ______________256 _306 _321 ____ 883 ____ 197 _332 _311 ____ 840 ___ 1723 ___ 011 001 .1.0 __ APR Stebo _____________ 252 _266 _314 ____ 832 ____ 267 _332 _292 ____ 891 ___ 1723 ___ 000 011 .0.0 Tom ______________ 283 _305 _357 ____ 945 ____ 207 _311 _233 ____ 751 ___ 1696 ___ 000 000 .0.0 __ JUN RodneyS ___________282 _274 _310 ____ 866 ____ 225 _254 _252 ____ 731 ___ 1597 ___ 200 200 .0.2 __ MAR dmillz25 ___________ 241 _221 _254 ____ 716 ____ 284 _304 _284 ____ 872 ___ 1588 ___ 000 110 .0.0 mappy (5/6) ________170 _185 _255 ____ 610 ____ 155 _230 _216 ____ 601 ___ 1211 ___ 001 000 .0.0 Orangeburgwx _(5/6)_185 _235 _273 ____ 693 ____ 166 _125 _233 ____ 524 ____1217 ___ 101 01*0 .0.0 Mercurial (2/6) ______146 _150 _133 ____ 429 ____ 110 _132 _084 ____ 326 ____ 755 ___ 110 000 .1.0 __ JAN H2O_Town_WX (3/6)_086 _105 _155 ____ 346 ____ 158 _052 _051 ____ 261 ____ 607 ___ 001 000 .0.0 H2O ___(2/6) ______ 094 _091 _071 ____ 256 ____ 056 _125 _072 ____ 253 ____ 509 ___ 000 010 .0.0 afewUniverses bn (1)_066 _080 _080 ____ 226 ____ 045 _066 _092 ____ 203 ____ 429 ___ 110 010 .0.0 nrgJeff _ (2/6) ______116 _092 _064 ____ 272 ____ 004 _095 _037 ____ 136 ____ 408 ___ buckeyefan (1 mo J) _ 050 _066 _048 ____ 164 ____ 018 _092 _036 ____ 146 ____ 310 ___ Cerakoter1984 (1moA)_060_062 _062 ____ 184 ____ 020 _050 _036 ____ 106 ____ 290 ___ tnweathernut(1 mo J)_ 067_056 _036 ____ 159 ____ 029 _067 _023 ____ 119 ____ 278 ___ CPcantmeasuresnow _ 002 _000 _000 ____ 002 ____ 038 _008 _040 ____ 086 ____ 088 ___ _________ (1 mo F) _^^ note: all shown (2/6) missed March to June, Orangeburgwx (5/6) missed January, ... mappy (5/6) missed June, and H2OTown_wx (3/6) missed April, May, June. Part Two: Western and All Nine contests ... best total scores in red for three locations, best scores in months shown after total score, high western totals for months in red ... all nine totals are shown with ranks, order of table is western scoring FORECASTER __________ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ____ TOTAL (west) __ best scores (mo) ____ All Nine (= rank) Scotty Lightning (SD) ____ 272 _ 406 _ 426 ____ 1104 __________ 0 1 2 __ Apr ______ 2881 (= 2) BKViking _______________276 _ 400 _ 403 _____1079 __________ 0 0 0 ____________ 2836 (= 4) RodneyS_______________ 332 _ 412 _ 306 _____1050 __________ 1 1 1 __May Jun ___ 2647 (=12) __ MAR, APR __ Consensus __________ 274 _ 390 _ 350 _____1014 __________ 0 1 0 _____________2796 (= 7) hudsonvalley21 _________ 292 _ 333 _ 375 _____1000 __________ 0 0 0 _____________2846 (= 3) DonSutherland.1 ________ 272 _ 358 _ 361 _____ 991 __________ 0 0 1 __ Jan _______2833 (= 5) Roger Smith ____________286 _ 368 _ 332 _____ 986 __________ 2 1 0 __ Jan _______3052 (= 1) __ MAY Tom __________________ 295 _ 374 _ 312 _____ 981 __________ 1 0 0 _____________2677 (=11) __ JUN so_whats_happening _____257 _ 393 _ 315 _____ 965 __________ 0 0 0 _____________2815 (= 6) __ FEB wxallannj ______________ 272 _ 406 _ 305 _____ 983 __________ 1 1 0 __ Mar _______2752 (= 8) RJay __________________277 _ 326 _ 352 _____ 955 __________ 2 1 0 _____________ 2678 (=10) wxdude64 _____________ 297 _ 316 _ 328 _____ 941 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 2767 (= 7) jaxjagman _____________ 232 _ 330 _ 353 _____ 915 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 2733 (= 9) __Normal ______________236 _ 310 _ 364 _____ 910 __________ 1 1 1 _____________ 2658 (=12) __ FEB dmillz25 _______________ 225 _ 359 _ 322 _____ 906 __________ 0 0 1 _____________ 2494 (=13) Orangeburgwx (5/6)______251 _ 333 _ 293 _____ 877 __________ 1 2 1 __ Feb _______ 2094 (=15) Stebo _________________ 180 _ 296 _ 234 _____ 710 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 2433 (=14) mappy (5/6) ____________124 _ 208 _ 179 _____ 511 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 1722 (=16) H2OTown__WX (3/6) ____ 053 _ 180 _ 139 _____ 372 __________ 0 0 0 ______________ 979 (=18) Mercurial __ (2/6) _______ 080 _ 120 _ 078 _____ 278 __________ 1 0 0 _____________1033 (=17) __ JAN nrgJeff ____ _(2/6) ______ 042 _ 084 _ 060 _____ 186 __________ 0 1 0 _____________ 594 (=21) H2O ____ (2/6) _________ 052 _ 082 _ 047 _____ 181 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 690 (=19) afewUniv bn (1 mo May) __ 060 _ 088 _ 012 _____ 160 __________ 1 0 0 _____________ 589 (=20) cerakoter1984 (1 mo Apr)_ 000 _ 080 _ 078 _____ 158 __________ 0 1 0 _____________ 448 (=22) tnweathernut (1 mo Jan) __045 _ 058 _ 050 _____ 153 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 431 (=24) buckeyewx __(1 mo Jan) __042 _ 034 _ 046 _____ 122 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 432 (=23) CPcantmeasuresnow (1-F)_ 000 _ 030 _ 012 _____ 042 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 130 (=25) __________________________________________________________________________________________________ Regional Rumble ... ... (_ Total scores January - June _) Region __________________ Eastern __ Central __ Western ____ TOTALS Mid Atlantic _______________1262 _____1118 ____1127 ________3507 NYC _____________________1175 _____1062 ____1229 ________3466 Central + Western _________ 1356 _____1003 ____1032 ________3391 PHL _____________________ 1207 _____ 879 ____1164 ________3250 PA / NY ___________________891 _____ 959 _____ 965 ________2815 ___ Consensus _____________932 _____ 848 _____1016 ________2796 TN Valley _________________ 966 _____ 900 _____ 925 ________2791 ___Normal _______________ 1012 _____ 736 _____ 910 ________2658 Southeast _________________ 857 _____ 670 _____ 999 ________2526 Great Lakes Ohio valley ______ 832 _____ 891 _____ 710 ________2433 New England _______________346 _____ 261 _____ 372 ________ 979
  2. I hope you're enjoying a relaxing Memorial Day weekend, but don't forget when it's over to enter the June temperature forecast contest. I will post reminders in regional threads on May 30th. The contest asks you to predict temperature anomalies in F deg relative to 1981-2010 normals for these nine locations: DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Good luck. (RJay if you read this, can we unpin April and May if we pin this? Thanks very much for your help).
  3. Provisional scoring June 2018 scoring is based on provisionals last updated in previous post ... scoring range is unusually small in June FORECASTER ____________DCA_NYC_BOS___east___ORD_ATL_IAH___cent__c/e___ DEN_PHX_SEA__west ___ TOTAL ___ Consensus ____________88 _ 84 _ 76 __ 248 ___100_ 64 _ 86 __ 250 ___498___ 58 _100 _ 84 __ 242____ 740 Tom __________ PHL ______90 _ 92 _ 98 __ 280 ___ 82 _ 64 _ 98 __ 244 ___524___ 48 _ 94 _ 64 __ 206 ____ 730 BKViking _____ NYC _______ 64 _ 76 _ 80 __ 220 ___ 94 _ 82 _ 86 __ 262 ___482___ 52 _ 96 _ 94 __ 242 ____ 724 wxallannj _____ NYC _______88 _ 86 _ 88 __ 262 ___ 96 _ 48 _ 96 __ 240 ___502___ 64 _ 98 _ 60 __ 222 ____ 724 dmillz25 ______ NYC _______64 _ 74 _ 74 __ 212 ___100_ 80 _ 80 __260 ___472___ 60 _ 90 _100__ 250 ____ 722 RJay _________ NYC _______74 _ 64 _ 54 __ 192 ___ 80 _ 80 _ 90 __ 250 ___442___100_ 70 _ 80 __ 250 ____ 692 jaxjagman _____ TNV ______78 _ 68 _ 60 __ 206 ___ 92 _ 74 _ 92 __ 258 ___464___ 60 _ 70 _ 96 __ 226 ____ 690 hudsonvalley21 _ NYC ______66 _ 54 _ 62 __ 182 ___ 84 _ 66 _100 __250 ___432___ 72 _ 82 _ 94 __ 248 ____ 680 Roger Smith ____ C+W _____96 _ 98_100__294 ___ 50 _ 38 _ 74 __ 162 ___456___ 46 _100_ 70 __ 216 ____ 672 wxdude64 ____ M A _______ 58 _ 60 _ 42 __ 160 ___ 82 _ 78 _ 98 __ 258 ___418___ 82 _ 78 _ 86 __ 246 ____ 664 Scotty Lightning _ PHL _____ 94 _ 94 _ 94 __ 282 ___ 70 _ 60 _ 70 __ 200 ___482___ 10 _ 80 _ 80 __ 170 ____ 652 Orangeburgwx ___SE _(-2%)_98**88**90**_276 ___ 61*_ 47*_71*__179 ___455___ 37*_86**65*__ 188 ____ 643 DonSutherland.1 _NYC _____ 98 _ 84 _ 76 __ 258 ___ 74 _ 50 _ 66 __ 190 ___448___ 20 _ 86 _ 86 __ 192 ____ 640 Stebo _______GL/OV ______ 70 _ 74 _ 70 __ 214 ___ 90 _ 84 _ 70 __ 244 ___458___ 58 _ 82 _ 40 __ 180 ____ 638 RodneyS _______ M A ______70 _ 68 _ 80 __ 218 ___ 52 _ 24 _ 86 __ 162 ___380___ 96 _ 80 _ 78 __ 254____ 634 so_whats_happening _PA/NY_90 _ 84 _ 70 __ 244 ___ 78 _ 62 _ 92 __ 232 ___476___ 34 _ 96 _ 84 __ 214 _690 ____________ (-10%) _____ 81 _ 76 _ 63 __ 220 ___ 70 _ 56 _ 83 __ 209 ___429___ 31 _ 86 _ 76 __ 193 ____ 622 ___ Normal _______________86 _ 96 _ 94 __ 276 ___ 60 _ 40 _ 50 __ 150 ___426___ 00 _ 60 _ 70 __ 130 ____ 556 ____________________________________________________________________________________________ * or ** show reduced scores of 1 or 2 for small late penalties -- larger late penalties are tabulated in separate lines. Regional Rumble -- Provisional scoring June 2018 Region ___________________ Eastern ___ Central ___ Western ____ TOTAL NYC _______________________ 262 ______ 262 ______ 250 _______ 774 ___ Consensus ______________ 248 ______ 250 ______ 242 _______ 740 PHL ________________________282 ______ 244 ______ 206 _______ 732 Mid-Atlantic _________________ 218 ______ 258 ______ 254 _______ 730 TN Valley ___________________ 206 ______ 258 ______ 226 _______ 690 Central + Western ____________294 ______ 162 ______ 216 _______ 672 Southeast ___________________276 ______ 179 ______ 188 _______ 643 GL/OV ______________________214 ______ 244 ______ 180 _______ 638 PA/NY ______________________220 ______ 209 ______ 193 _______ 622 ___ Normal _________________ 276 ______ 150 ______ 130 _______ 556
  4. What kind of North Atlantic tropical cyclone season do you foresee? Our annual contest asks you to predict the total number of storms, and break it down by months. As you know, the "count" is total number of named storms, then total number of those that become hurricanes, and finally total number of hurricanes that become major (cat-3 or stronger). Last year the final count was 17/10/6 and our contest winner was Rockchalk83. The rules are fairly simple. You need to post a seasonal total by the deadline which I am setting as June 4th as we often seem to be getting entries past the season's June 1st starting point. I will try to expand the field by publicizing the contest in regional forums this year. Your seasonal total should include any developments in May, but if there is an outcome (GFS keeps showing a late May hurricane in the eastern Gulf) earlier forecasts that are backed up by monthly predictions will be adjusted if it appears that the May storm is not anticipated. Seasonals that have no complete monthly component will be left unadjusted as it could be assumed that the May storm is included. Last year, all entrants gave monthly predictions and almost all left them unedited, but the contest rules allow you to submit these up to 06z of the first of each month, or to revise them by that deadline. Note, there is no requirement for your monthly numbers to add up to your seasonal numbers and you can use decimal points to express uncertainty. Since most of the seasonal forecasts were the sum of the monthly predictions, I assumed that any May activity could be factored in. Some past years, we have had to deal with even earlier storms that happened before the contest announcement (January, April). I am going to post my forecast mostly as a guide to how your forecast should appear (not the numbers but the format) ... Roger Smith ____ 21 16 7 ____ (Jun) 2 1 0 _ (Jul) 1 1 0 __ (Aug) 4 3 2 __ (Sep) 7 5 3 __ (Oct) 5 4 2 __ (Nov-Dec) 1 1 0 (this assumes a 1 1 0 May, would be adjusted to 20 15 7 if 0 0 0 or 21 15 7 if 1 0 0) Scoring for the contest is as follows: 50% of the score is based on the seasonal. You start with 50 points and in each category, you lose half of (1 point per error plus that number squared). Example, you predict 16 storms, the actual is 19, your error is (3 + 3 squared)/2 = 12/2 = 6. If you had similar errors for hurricanes and majors, your total score would then be 32/50. The other 50% of the score is based on your monthly forecasts starting with June and ending with Nov-Dec. These are worth 4, 6, 12, 16, 10 and 2 points in order from June to Nov-Dec. Then the errors reduce your possible score in the same way as the seasonal formula, except that June, July and Nov-Dec go with half the reductions (in other words, you lose points at half the rate of the other more active months). In the past few years, highest scores in the contest have been close to 90 and seasonal scores of 48 to 50 have been achieved. A good monthly set will earn 41-43 points. Good luck if you enter. The deadline will be made more precise around June 1st and all entrants can edit up to the eventual deadline without notice, you can assume that I won't be copying down or storing any forecasts until a firm deadline is posted in the thread and up to that firm deadline, so no need to post new numbers, just edit the old ones. Once a table of entries appears, your numbers are set for the seasonal and June portions but you have the option of posting revised monthly numbers at any point during the contest before monthly deadlines. Late monthly revisions will be penalized at a rate of 10% per day but will not be valid after any named storm is declared in the month. As you see, I am expecting a very active season. There seems to be no particular reason why the outcome from 2017 would change very much this year, hopefully the majors will stay out to sea more often and avoid the sorts of landfalls that caused so much devastation in 2017.
  5. Anomaly tracker with an update on seasonal max values to date ... ATL has no report for 2nd, hoping this will be available eventually. There are no reports for any nearby locations, so I estimated +6 from Chattanooga, TN which had a +7 anomaly. The six days available at ATL reported +2.5 so I boosted that to +3.0. (the missing data had not been added by 14th, so reported 2.7 is adjusted to 2.8). Seasonal max to date values are updated whenever possible (just changing a few now on 21st). __________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Seasonal max to date _________ 95 __ 92 __ 90 _____ 97 __ 93 __ 98 ______ 97 __ 110 __ 88 June 1-7 anomaly ____________+0.7 _--1.5 _--3.8 ___+0.4 _+3.0 _+4.6 ____+8.2 _+3.3 _+1.4 June 1-14 anomaly ____________0.0 _--1.0 _--1.7 ___+0.9 _+2.8 _+4.2 ____+8.9 _+3.8 _--0.4 June 1-21 anomaly ___________+1.4 _+0.7 _--0.1 ___+2.6 _+3.2 _+2.5 ____+6.3 _+1.5 _+2.4 predicted anomaly 14th (NWS)__+1.2 __0.0 _--1.0 ___+2.7 _+3.0 _+3.3 ____+7.5 _+3.0 _+0.7 predicted anomaly 21st (NWS)__+2.0 _+1.5 _+1.2 ___+3.1 _+4.2 _+3.8 ____+7.0 _+2.0 _+2.0 predicted anomaly 28th (NWS)__+0.5 __0.0 _--0.5 ___+1.5 _+2.7 _+2.2 ____+5.2 _+1.5 _+1.8 predicted anomaly 24th (GFS) __+0.5 __0.0 _--0.5 ___+2.0 _+2.0 _+2.3 ____+5.0 _+2.5 _+0.2 predicted anomaly 30th (GFS) __+1.5 _+1.3 _+1.0 ___+2.5 _+3.0 _+3.0 ____+5.0 _+2.5 _+1.5 updated on 22nd (GFS 29-30) __+0.7 _+0.2 _--0.3 ___+2.0 _+3.0 _+2.5 ____+5.0 _+2.0 _+1.5 The average accuracy for NWS forecasts 8th to 14th was moderate, the average error being 1.0 deg. This improved to 0.8 deg for the period 15th to 21st.
  6. Our consensus from 24 forecasts (not including the NHC mid-range but closer to top of their range) is for a fairly average season by recent standards. The contest normal is derived from data since 1989 and is boosted by one due to the out-of-season May storm. But in general terms, the consensus looks for a somewhat more active early season (July in particular has higher numbers than average) and a somewhat flat end of the season (October shows this tendency).
  7. 2018 North Atlantic tropical season contest -- Table of entries Entries include the 100 count for May and are adjusted when monthly totals appear to add up to seasonal forecasts (in other words, the 100 is added on). Where May is included the total is left as posted. When there is only a seasonal forecast and no monthlies, the contest normal values are used scaled to the forecast (* appears beside forecaster name). These forecasters can supply monthly values before future months begin if they wish, and subject to the following: Contest rules state that your monthlies do not have to add up to your seasonal. But if anyone thinks this is an error and wants to adjust, you have until end of June 7th to adjust (PM sent to one entrant on this issue). All forecasters have the option to adjust future months before they begin if they wish (post new numbers). Note -- have added BlunderStorm's entry which I overlooked (made the table from page one thinking all the entries were there, oops) -- tied seasonals are listed in order received. FORECASTER _____________ SEASONAL __ May __ June __ July _ August _ Sept __ Oct _ Nov-Dec ___ Points available ___________ 50 _______ -- ____ 4 ____ 6 ____ 12 ___ 16 ___ 10 ____ 2 ____ 100 SRRTA22 __________________ 22 _9 4 ___ 100 __ 2 1 0 _ 3 2 0 _ 4 2 0 __ 4 3 1 __ 5 3 2 _ 3 2 1 Roger Smith ________________21 15 7 ___ 100 __ 2 1 0 _ 1 1 0 _ 4 3 2 __ 7 5 3 __ 5 4 2 _ 1 1 0 Jackstraw __________________20 10 4 ___ 100 __ 2 1 0 _ 3 1 1 _ 4 2 1 __ 8 4 2 __ 2 2 0 _ 0 0 0 Orangeburgwx ______________ 19 9 4 ____100 __ 1 1 0 _ 2 0 0 _ 7 5 2 __ 4 2 1 __ 3 1 1 _ 1 0 0 RJay ______________________ 19 9 3 ____100 __ 2 0 0 _ 3 1 0 _ 4 3 1 __ 5 3 2 __ 3 2 0 _ 1 0 0 jbamafanwx ________________18 10 5 ___ 100 __ 2 1 0 _ 3 2 1 _ 4 2 1 __ 5 4 2 __ 2 1 1 _ 1 0 0 Rtd208 ____________________ 18 8 5 ____100 __ 2 0 0 _ 3 1 0 _ 4 2 2 __ 6 4 2 __ 2 1 1 _ 0 0 0 Stebo _____________________ 18 8 4 ____100 __ 3 1 0 _ 3 1 0 _ 3 2 1 __ 5 3 2 __ 2 1 1 _ 1 0 0 jaxjagman __________________17 9 4 ____100 __ 2 0 0 _ 3 1 0 _ 3 3 2 __ 5 3 2 __ 3 2 0 _ 0 0 0 mryanwilkes ________________ 17 9 4 ____100 __ 3 2 0 _ 3 1 1 _ 4 3 1 __ 5 3 2 __ 1 0 0 _ 0 0 0 BlunderStorm _______________ 17 9 4 ____100 __ 1 0 0 _ 2 1 0 _ 4 2 1 __ 5 4 2 __ 3 2 1 _ 1 0 0 UIWWildthing _______________17 9 3 ____100 __ 2 1 0 _ 3 1 1 _ 3 1 1 __ 6 5 1 __ 2 1 0 _ 0 0 0 NorthArlington101 ___________ 17 8 4 ____100 __ 2 1 0 _ 3 1 0 _ 4 2 1 __ 5 3 2 __ 2 1 1 _ 0 0 0 ___ Consensus ______________17 8 3 ____100 __ 2 1 0 _ 2 1 0 _ 4 2 1 __ 5 3 2 __ 2 1 1 _ 1 0 0 hlcater ____________________ 17 7 2 ____100 __ 2 1 0 _ 3 1 1 _ 2 1 0 __ 3 2 0 __ 5 2 1 _ 1 0 0 ___ Contest Normal __________16 8 3 ____100 __ 1 0 0 _ 1 0 0 _ 4 2 1 __ 6 4 1 __ 3 2 1 _ 0 0 0 snowlover2 _________________16 5 2 ____100 __ 1 0 0 _ 3 1 0 _ 3 1 1 __ 6 2 1 __ 2 1 0 _ 0 0 0 ncskywarn _________________15 11 4 ___ 100 __ 2 1 0 _ 2 2 0 _ 3 2 1 __ 4 3 2 __ 2 2 1 _ 1 1 0 jburns _____________________15 8 4 ____100 __ 2 0 0 _ 1 1 0 _ 3 2 1 __ 5 4 2 __ 2 1 1 _ 1 0 0 NCforecaster89 _____________ 15 7 3 ____100 __ 1 1 0 _ 3 1 0 _ 3 2 1 __ 4 2 1 __ 2 1 1 _ 1 0 0 crownweather ______________ 14 7 3 ____100 __ 1 0 0 _ 3 2 1 _ 3 2 1 __ 4 2 1 __ 2 1 0 _ 0 0 0 cobalt _____________________14 6 2 ____100 __ 1 0 0 _ 2 1 0 _ 4 2 1 __ 3 2 1 __ 2 1 0 _ 1 0 0 a few Universes below normal*_13 7 3 ____100 __ 0 0 0 _ 1 0 0 _ 3 2 1 __ 5 3 1 __ 3 2 1 _ 0 0 0 ___ NHC mid-range _________ 13 7 2.5 __ 100 __ 0 0 0 _ 1 0 0 _ 3 2 1 __ 5 3 1 __ 3 2 0.5_0 0 0 Yoda ______________________13 6 2 ____100 __ 1 0 0 _ 2 1 0 _ 3 2 1 __ 5 2 1 __ 1 1 0 _ 0 0 0 OSUmetstud _______________ 13 5 1 ____ 100 __ 1 0 0 _ 1 0 0 _ 5 2 0 __ 4 2 1 __ 1 1 0 _ 0 0 0 pcbjr _____________________ 11 5 1 ____ 100 __ 0 0 0 _ 2 1 0 _ 4 2 0 __ 3 2 1 __ 1 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _______________________________________________________________________ Contest means ___16.5_8.2_3.4__100__1.6_0.5_0__2.4_1.0_0.2__3.7_2.2_1.0__4.8_3.0_1.5__2.3_1.4_0.6__0.5_0.2_0.0 (Consensus is the contest mean rounded off to nearest whole number -- these rounded off monthly numbers add up to 17 8 4)
  8. We are closing in on the contest deadline, there's nothing too imminent so I will allow entries and edits to end of day June 5th then post the table of entries -- let's say 03z June 6th will be when I harvest the entries so if you're going to edit or enter, do it before that time.
  9. Table of forecasts June 2018 FORECASTER _____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA wxdude64 ____ M A _______ +2.8 _+2.2 _+2.6 ___ +1.1 _+1.9 _+2.4 ___ +4.1 _+3.1 _+0.8 dmillz25 ______ NYC _______ +2.5 _+1.5 _+1.0 ___ +2.0 _+2.0 _+1.5 ___ +3.0 _+1.5 _+1.5 BKViking _____ NYC _______ +2.5 _+1.4 _+0.7 ___ +2.3 _+2.1 _+1.8 ___ +2.6 _+1.8 _+1.8 hudsonvalley21 _ NYC ______+2.4 _+2.5 _+1.6 ___ +2.8 _+1.3 _+2.5 ___ +3.6 _+2.9 _+1.2 Stebo _______GL/OV ______ +2.2 _+1.5 _+1.2 ___ +2.5 _+2.2 _+1.0 ___ +2.9 _+1.1 _--1.5 RJay _________ NYC _______+2.0 _+2.0 _+2.0 ___ +3.0 _+2.0 _+2.0 ___ +5.0 _+3.5 _+2.5 jaxjagman _____ TNV ______+1.8 _+1.8 _+1.7 ___ +2.4 _+1.7 _+2.1 ___ +3.0 _+3.5 _+1.3 wxallannj ______ NYC ______+1.3 _+0.9 _+0.3 ___ +2.2 _+0.4 _+2.3 ___ +3.2 _+1.9 _--0.5 ___ Consensus ____________ +1.3 _+1.0 _+0.9 ___ +2.0 _+1.2 _+1.8 ___ +2.9 _+2.0 _+0.7 so_whats_happening ____________PA/NY (-10%)_+1.2 _+1.0 _+1.2 ___ +0.9 _+1.1 _+2.1 ___ +1.7 _+2.2 _+0.7 Tom __________ PHL ______+1.2 _+0.6 _--0.2 ___ +2.9 _+1.2 _+2.6 ___ +2.4 _+2.3 _--0.3 Scotty Lightning _ PHL ______+1.0 _+0.5 __0.0 ___ +0.5 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ +0.5 _+1.0 _+0.5 DonSutherland.1 _NYC ______+0.8 _+1.0 _+0.9 ___ +0.7 _+0.5 _+0.8 ___ +1.0 _+1.3 _+0.8 Orangeburgwx ___ SE _(-2%)_+0.7 _--0.3 _--0.7 ___ +0.1 _+0.4 _+1.1 ___ +1.9 _+1.4 _--0.2 Roger Smith ____ C+W _____+0.5 _+0.1 _--0.3 ___ --0.5 _--0.1 _+1.2 ___ +2.3 _+2.0 __ 0.0 ___ Normal ________________0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 RodneyS _______ M A ______--0.8 _--1.4 _--1.3 ___ --0.4 _--0.8 _+1.8 ___ +4.8 _+3.0 _+0.4 _______________________________________________________________________ color codes for highest and lowest forecasts, Normal is coolest for IAH, DEN and PHX.
  10. Thanks for entering the contest ... further entries will be accepted at least to June 4th then we will make up a table of entries. We use a "contest normal" which is basically derived from the average of 1989 to 2017, the active season last year has bumped up the values slightly from last year's contest. Also we add in the out-of-season May 1,0,0 to that contest normal as we have done the past two years for January to May activity. This makes the contest normal _________________________ SEASON __ MAY _ JUN _ JUL _ AUG_ SEP _ OCT_ N-D Adjusted Normal 1989-2017____ 16_8_3 __ 100 _ 100__100__421__641__321__000 (note that N-D has an actual average of something like 0.4/0.1/0.01 so it rounds down to 000) :::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: We also take the NHC "mid-range" from their published seasonal forecast. It is assumed that the May activity is part of their forecast. The mid-range of their 2018 forecast is 13 7 2.5, which is almost identical to the Weather Channel at 13 7 2. (source: Wikipedia article) To make their entry complete, I have scaled their forecast to the contest normal as follows: NHC mid-range ___________ 13 7 2.5 __ 100 _ 000 _ 100 _ 321 _ 531 _ 3 2 0.5 _ 000 If you have entered only a seasonal prediction, I will scale a set of monthlies for you and you can always adjust them going forward. If you have entered monthlies and they do not include a 100 count for May but add up to your seasonal total, I will add the May 100 to your seasonal forecast. If you have that in your mix then I won't adjust your total. A reminder -- you can adjust monthly forecasts up to the start of each month if you spot new trends. Your seasonal is carved in stone once we set the table of entries though.
  11. +0.5 __ +0.1 __ --0.3 ___ --0.5 __ --0.1 __ +1.2 ___ +2.3 __ +2.0 __ 0.0
  12. The usual monthly temperature forecast contest (and continuation of the now very close Regional Rumble) will be accompanied this month by the annual max contest. We have had this added bonus contest each of the past three years and most of our regulars have entered it -- see rules below. For the temperature forecast contest, it's the usual challenge to predict the anomalies (in F deg) relative to 1981-2010 "normals" for DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA For the annual maximum contest, it's simply based on the 2018 maximum for each of those same locations, with the season being all year rather than the summer months alone, as the max can happen in May or September. So add on those forecasts to your May anomaly predictions. Deadline for the main temperature contest is 06z May 1st with 1% penalties from then on every four hours to 18z May 2nd and 1% per hour late after that. There won't be a late penalty applied to the seasonal max portion, if you happen to forget and then edit them in before May 10th or so when I make up a table of entries for the seasonal max, that will be fine, and it gives me a few days to send reminders. And if anyone just wants to enter this seasonal max contest alone, that will be fine too. Good luck !!! (April provisional scoring available, everything is tightening up in all contests ... and the snowfall contest is pretty much done now, as DEN is still way below even our minimum forecast and it's unlikely to snow (much) at the other locations -- that contest is updated when necessary back in the February thread but I will move the likely results to this thread around May 8th or so -- technically the contest runs to June 30th).
  13. Four seasons contest update SPRING 2018 (March, April, May) ____________________ score ______________ score _______________ score (totals) FORECASTER ____ (original six) __ Points ___ (western) __ Points ____ (all nine) __ Points RodneyS _____________ 991 ____7 __________ 678 _____ 10________ 1669 _____10 Roger Smith _________ 1110 ___ 10 __________532 ______ --________ 1642 _____ 7 wxdude64 ___________ 942 ____ 6 ___________541 ______ --________1483 _____ 6 Tom ________________904 ____ 5 ___________553 ______ 1 ________1457 _____ 5 Don Sutherland.1 _____ 875 ____ 4 ___________579 ______ 4 ________1454 _____ 4 wxallannj ____________805 ____ 1 ___________621 ______ 5 ________1426 _____ 3 BKViking ____________ 764 ____ -- __________ 650 ______ 7 ________1414 _____ 2 ___ Consensus _______ 807 ___ 1 ___________ 588 ______ 4 ________ 1395 _____ 1 RJay ________________827 ___ 1 ___________ 565 ______ 2 ________ 1392 _____ 1 jaxjagman ___________ 866 ___ 3 ___________ 507 ______ -- _______ 1373 _____ 1 hudsonvalley21 _______ 801 ___ 1 ___________ 560 ______ 1 ________1361 _____ 1 so_whats_happening __ 765 ___ -- ___________ 567 ______ 3 ________1332 _____ -- Scotty Lightning ______ 641 ___ -- ___________ 636 ______ 6 ________1277 _____ -- dmillz25 ____________ 673 ___ -- ___________ 550 ______ 1 ________ 1223 _____ -- Stebo _______________833 ___ 2 ___________ 382 ______ -- ________1215 _____ -- ___Normal ___________662 ___ -- ___________512 ______ -- ________1174 _____ -- mappy ______________731 ___ -- ___________ 408 ______ -- ________1139 _____ -- Orangeburgwx________635 ___ -- ___________ 415 ______ -- ________1050 _____ -- Four Seasons total points to date ... listed in order of all nine total points ... FORECASTER ____ (original six) __ Points __ (western) __ Points __ (all nine) __ Points Roger Smith _________1,10 ______ 11 _______ 5, 0 ______5 _____ 4, 7 _____11 RodneyS ____________ 0, 7 ______ 7 ________1,10 _____ 11 _____ 0,10 ____ 10 Scotty Lightning _____10, 0_______ 10 ______ 10, 6_____ 16 ____ 10, 0 _____10 Don Sutherland.1 _____5, 4 _______ 9 _______ 7, 4 _____ 11 _____ 6, 4 _____ 10 hudsonvalley21 ______ 7, 1 _______ 8 _______ 3, 2 ______ 5 _____ 7, 1 ______ 8 wxdude64 __________ 4, 6 _______10 _______ 0, 0 ______ 0 _____1, 6 ______ 7 ___Normal __________ 7, 0 _______ 7 _______ 6, 0 ______6 _____ 7, 0 ______ 7 so_whats_happening __ 6. 0 _______ 6 _______ 2, 3 ______5 _____ 5, 0 ______ 5 Tom ________________0, 5 _______ 5 _______ 6, 1 _____ 7 _____ 0, 5 _______ 5 BKViking ____________ 3, 0 _______ 3 _______ 1, 7 _____ 8 ______ 3, 2 ______ 5 wxallannj ____________2, 1 _______ 3 _______ 1, 5 _____ 6 ______ 2, 3 ______ 5 ___ Consensus _______ 2.,1 _______ 3 _______ 3, 4 _____ 7 _____ 4, 1 _______ 5 RJay ________________1, 1 ________ 2 ______ 0, 2 _____ 2 _____ 1, 1 _______ 2 H2O_Town__WX ______ 0, 0 _______ 0 _______ 5, 0 _____ 5 _____ 1, 0 _______ 1 dmillz25 _____________ 1, 0 _______ 1 ________0, 1 _____ 1 _____ 0, 0 _______ 0 (only forecasters with any points are in table)
  14. Extreme Forecast Update This was a great month for new (to here) forecaster "AfewUniversesbelownormal" who captured five. Regulars who were second in those will earn a win if "AfewUbn" racks up fewer than five months by end of year, so for now any second awards will be marked with asterisks and withdrawn if or when he reaches five. DCA _ Final +6.4, win for "afewU b n" at +4.0 and depending on future entries for "afewU b n" also a win for Roger Smith at +3.6. NYC _ Final +4.5, win for "afewU b n" at +3.5 and (see above) Roger Smith at +3.4. BOS _ Final +4.2, a win for Roger Smith at +4.0. ORD _ Final +7.0, a win for DonSutherland.1 at +2.8. ATL _ Final +4.7, a win for "a few U b n" at +3.0 and tied scores of Orangeburgwx +2.6 (-2 late) and Roger Smith at +2.5 IAH _ Final +2.9, a win for Roger Smith at +2.8. DEN _ Final +4.3, a win for three tied at +2.0 (A few U bn, Roger Smith, RodneyS) ... the tie means no second award situation. SEA _ Final +5.0, a win for RodneyS at +2.6 (PHX at +1.4 will not qualify). Extreme Forecasts wins and losses In this table, secondary wins where "a few Universes below normal" had a win in May are marked by # symbols, and will be withdrawn if "a few Univ bn" enters a total of five contests in 2018. For DEN, two regulars tied with "a few Univ bn" and those will be retained in any case. Roger Smith __________11###-0 (can fall to 8-0 see above) RodneyS _____________ 6-1 AfewUniversesbelown.. __4-0 __ Normal ____________ 4-1 Orangeburgwx ________ 4#-0* (can fall to 3-0 see above) wxallannj _____________3-0 RJay ________________ 3-1 so_whats_happening ___ 2-0 wxdude64 ____________ 2-0 DonSutherland1 ________2-0 Mercurial _____________ 1-0 NRG Jeff ______________1-0 Stebo ________________ 1-0 H2OTown_wx _________ 1-1 Scotty Lightning (SD)____1-1 cerakoter1984 _________ 1-0 * no decision (Mar for IAH)
  15. Roger Smith

    2018 Mid-Atlantic General Severe Discussion

    Entrainment of several cells will bring a risk of dangerous flash flooding around Baltimore next 3 hours. Potential for 8" rainfalls. (IMHO)
  16. This is your invitation to participate in the 2018 American Weather Forum North Atlantic tropical season forecast contest. All the details are at this link: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/51267-2018-north-atlantic-tropical-storm-hurricane-season-forecast-contest/ Entries will be accepted until June 4th (06z June 5th to be more exact). Hope you'll consider entering.
  17. This is your invitation to participate in the 2018 American Weather Forum North Atlantic tropical season forecast contest. All the details are at this link: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/51267-2018-north-atlantic-tropical-storm-hurricane-season-forecast-contest/ Entries will be accepted until June 4th (06z June 5th to be more exact). Hope you'll consider entering.
  18. This is your invitation to participate in the 2018 American Weather Forum North Atlantic tropical season forecast contest. All the details are at this link: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/51267-2018-north-atlantic-tropical-storm-hurricane-season-forecast-contest/ Entries will be accepted until June 4th (06z June 5th to be more exact). Hope you'll consider entering.
  19. The monthly temperature forecast contest has been a feature of this forum and its predecessor (Eastern) for a long time. But it's hosted in the general interest forum and so as host, I would like to broaden the appeal and get more people involved in the contest. To help with that, the contest will now be more than just an individual competition, although that part remains. Now it's also going to take best scores from each regional forum and determine a champion in the "Regional Rumble." You can enter both here in this thread, or over at the home thread which is here: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50671-january-2018-temperature-forecast-contest-regional-rumble-begins/ The contest asks you to predict the temperature anomalies in F deg for nine locations: (eastern) DCA, NYC, BOS (central) ORD, ATL, IAH (western) DEN, PHX, SEA The regional aspect will take best scores for each of those three groups of three stations, and that may come from different contributors within the regional forum's entrants. And if you enter all twelve months of the year you will be participating in the individual contest as well. All rules can be reviewed over at the thread linked above, but basically you get a score out of 100 based on how close you are to the actual anomaly (relative to 1981-2010). You lose 2 points (in most cases) for each 0.1 deg error. Months that are either more anomalous than +/- 5 degrees or that score worse than 60 for top score go to secondary scoring rules that avoid a lot of zero scores for different forecasts. So with that said, here's your easy portal for entering the forecast contest, you don't have to go "over there" but instead you can stay in the comfort of your own regional forum and enter from here. I will collect all forecasts posted here and reproduce them in a table of forecasts. This thread will stay open with titles changing as we approach monthly deadlines. Usually the forecasts are due by 06z of the 1st of each month with time penalties (1% per 4h late for 36h, then 1% per hour). This first time out with New Years and the storm interests, the deadline is shifted to the 4th at 08z. If you enter, thanks and good luck! (this thread will appear in all regional forums)
  20. Jaxjagman is doing pretty well for your forum ... you might want to back him up in later months. I'm playing solo myself against the NYC powerhouse and it's an unequal struggle but I'm ahead (blind luck mostly and my occasional helpers).
  21. This is your invitation to participate in the 2018 American Weather Forum North Atlantic tropical season forecast contest. All the details are at this link: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/51267-2018-north-atlantic-tropical-storm-hurricane-season-forecast-contest/ Entries will be accepted until June 4th (06z June 5th to be more exact). Hope you'll consider entering.
  22. This is your invitation to participate in the 2018 American Weather Forum North Atlantic tropical season forecast contest. All the details are at this link: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/51267-2018-north-atlantic-tropical-storm-hurricane-season-forecast-contest/ Entries will be accepted until June 4th (06z June 5th to be more exact). Hope you'll consider entering.
  23. This is your invitation to participate in the 2018 American Weather Forum North Atlantic tropical season forecast contest. All the details are at this link: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/51267-2018-north-atlantic-tropical-storm-hurricane-season-forecast-contest/ Entries will be accepted until June 4th (06z June 5th to be more exact). Hope you'll consider entering.
  24. This is your invitation to participate in the 2018 American Weather Forum North Atlantic tropical season forecast contest. All the details are at this link: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/51267-2018-north-atlantic-tropical-storm-hurricane-season-forecast-contest/ Entries will be accepted until June 4th (06z June 5th to be more exact). Hope you'll consider entering.
  25. This is your invitation to participate in the 2018 American Weather Forum North Atlantic tropical season forecast contest. All the details are at this link: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/51267-2018-north-atlantic-tropical-storm-hurricane-season-forecast-contest/ Entries will be accepted until June 4th (06z June 5th to be more exact). Hope you'll consider entering.
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