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Roger Smith

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  1. I have re-ordered the table of forecasts to show the current standings. FORECASTER _____________ DCA _ IAD _ BWI _ RIC ____ Errors to date ____ TOTALS LittleVillageWx _ (21) ______ 98 __ 97 __ 99 __ 99 _______ 1 _ 0 _ 0 _ 1 _______ 2 WinterWxLuvr (9) ________ 100 __ 98 __ 99 __ 99 _______ 1 _ 1 _ 0 _ 1 _______ 3 tplbge _ (19) _______________98 _ 100 __ 99 __ 99 _______ 1 _ 3 _ 0 _ 1 _______ 5 87storms _ (7) ___________ 100 __ 99 _ 100 _ 100 _______ 1 _ 2 _ 1 _ 2 _______ 6 Weather53 _ (17) __________99 __ 99 _ 100 _ 101 _______ 0 _ 2 _ 1 _ 3 _______ 6 __ tiebreaker is 1st higher dep GramaxRefugee _ (5) _____ 99 _ 100 _ 101 _ 100 _______ 0 _ 3 _ 2 _ 2 _______ 7 Eskimo Joe _ (10) _________ 99 _ 100 _ 101 _ 100 _______ 0 _ 3 _ 2 _ 2 _______ 7 __ tiebreaker is order of entry NorthArlington101 _(1) ____101 __ 98 __ 99 _ 102 _______ 2 _ 1 _ 0 _ 4 _______ 7 __ tiebreakers (1st higher dep, then order of entry) biodhokie _ (6) ____________99 _ 101 _ 100 _ 100 _______ 0 _ 4 _ 1 _ 2 _______ 7 __ tiebreaker is order of entry WxWatcher007 _ (25) _____99 __ 99 _ 100 _ 102 _______ 0 _ 2 _ 1 _ 4 _______ 7 __ tiebreaker is order of entry toolsheds _ (13) ___________99 _ 100 _ 100 _ 102 _______ 0 _ 3 _ 1 _ 4 _______ 8 nw baltimore wx (15) _____100 _ 100 _ 101 _ 101 _______ 1 _ 3 _ 2 _ 3 ________ 9 peribonca _ (2) ____________99 _ 100 _ 102 _ 101 _______ 0 _ 3 _ 3 _ 3 _______ 9 __ tiebreaker is 2nd higher dep (3 vs 2) CAPE __ (24) ______________101 __ 99 _ 100 _ 102 ______ 2 _ 2 _ 1 _ 4 ________ 9 __ tiebreaker is 1st higher dep HighStakes _ (26) _________101 __ 99 _ 101 _ 102 ______ 2 _ 2 _ 2 _ 4 _______ 10 Rhino16 _ (12) _____________101 _ 100 _ 100 _ 102 ______ 2 _ 3 _ 1 _ 4 _______ 10 __ tiebreaker is 2nd higher dep (3 vs 2) WxUSAF __ (27) __________ 100 __ 99 _ 102 _ 102 ______ 1 _ 2 _ 3 _ 4 _______ 10 __ tiebreaker is order of entry RickinBaltimore (14) ______100 _ 101 _ 101 _ 102 _______ 1 _ 4 _ 2 _ 4 _______ 11 nj2va ___ (8) _______________99 _ 101 _ 101 _ 103 _______ 0 _ 4 _ 2 _ 5 _______ 11 __ tiebreaker is 1st higher dep Contest means __________100.4_ 100.5_ 101.3_ 101.9 _____ 1.4 _ 3.5 _2.3 _3.9 ______ 11.1 yoda __ (23) _______________102 _ 100 _ 101 _ 102 ______ 3 _ 3 _ 2 _ 4 ______ 12 Wxdavis5784 _ (11) ________98 _ 101 _ 103 _ 102 _______ 1 _ 4 _ 4 _ 4 ______ 13 StormchaserChuck! (4) ___ 103 _ 102 _ 101 _ 101 ______ 4 _ 5 _ 2 _ 3 ______ 14 wxdude64 _ (18) __________101 _ 100 _ 102 _ 104 ______ 2 _ 3 _ 3 _ 6 ______ 14 __ tiebreaker is 1st higher dep mattie g _ (16) ____________100 _ 103 _ 102 _ 102 ______ 1 _ 6 _ 3 _ 4 ______ 14 __ tiebreaker is 2nd higher dep (4 vs 3) PrinceFrederickWx _(3) ___102 _ 100 _ 104 _ 103 ______ 3 _ 3 _ 5 _ 5 ______ 16 Roger Smith _ (20) ________ 104 _ 106 _ 105 _ 107 _____ 5 _ 9 _ 6 _ 9 ______ 29 George BM _ (22) _________ 108 _ 109 _ 110 _ 110 ______ 9 _12 _11 _12 ______ 44 ____________________________________ Tiebreaker info relates to the entry above, explaining why the entry with the note is ranked below that one. In one case a rank is a combination of two different tie breakers relating to entries above then below _________________ ____________________ (current as of July 22) _____ 99 __ 97 __ 99 __ 98 (when recorded) _________ 6/17 _ 8/04 _ 8/04 _7/21* * tied 7/24 This table will be adjusted if any new seasonal max values are reported.
  2. Anomalies and projections ... _________________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA 12th ___ (anom 11d) ____ +2.9 _+5.2 _+6.3 ___+1.6 _-0.3 _+0.8 __ +5.1 _-1.7 _+0.7 12th __ (p anom 21d) ___ +1.7 _+3.5 _+4.0 ___+1.0 _-0.5 _+0.5 __ +4.0 _-1.5 _+1.5 12th __ (p anom 28d) ___+1.2 _+2.5 _+3.0 ___+0.5 _-0.5 _+0.5 __ +3.5 _-1.5 _+2.0 12th _ The seasonal max updates are still in the July thread for now. Will move that over here towards the end of August, no recent changes other than NYC to 97F. Projections are based on gradually cooling regime in east, fairly static (continued rather warm except in PHX) further west.
  3. In the above list, is there any way for you to check the entry that is supposed to end on June 24, 1894 at 3260d because in my data base I do not see any temps above 96 in 1894 and the termination of <99 seems to be July 3, 1898 (100F) which would be 4730 days from the apparently accurate starting date of July 21, 1885 (99F) which generated the 3260d listed. I'm wondering if the program generated an interval from a missing code, otherwise I have faulty data in my data base for 1894.
  4. Two of the four locations edged up today with BWI at 99, IAD at 97. DCA stays at previous 99 and RIC at 98.
  5. Table of forecasts for August 2022 FORECASTER _____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA RJay ______________________ +2.5 _ +2.5 _ +3.5 __ +3.0 _ +2.0 _ +3.0 ___ +3.5 _ +3.0 _ +1.7 hudsonvalley21 ___________ +2.4 _ +2.6 _ +2.3 __ +2.3 _ +1.9 _ +2.1 ___ +1.7 _ +0.9 _ +0.8 BKViking __________________ +2.2 _ +2.2 _ +2.5 __ +2.7 _ +2.6 _ +2.4 ___ +2.0 _ +2.0 _ +1.3 wxallannj __________________ +2.1 _ +2.4 _ +2.8 __ +2.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.4___ +3.0 _ +2.5 _ +2.8 Roger Smith _______________ +1.7 _ +1.8 _ +2.4 __ +1.0 _ +1.2 _ +2.4 ___ +3.0 _ +1.0 _ +2.5 wxdude64 _________________+1.7 _ +1.8 _ +2.1 ___ +1.6 _ +1.4 _ +1.9 ___ +1.7 _ +1.2 __ +0.3 ___ Consensus ____________ +1.7 _ +1.8 _ +2.1 ___ +1.5 _ +1.4 _ +2.1 ___ +1.7 _ +1.2 __ +1.1 Tom _______________________ +1.7 _ +1.6 _ +1.6 ___ +1.5 _ +1.4 _ +1.8 ___ +1.4 _ +1.9 __ +1.1 DonSutherland1 ___________ +1.5 _ +2.0 _ +2.0 __ +1.8 _ +1.2 _ +0.7 ___ +0.2 _ +0.5 _ +1.0 so_whats_happening ______ +1.0 _ +1.2 _ +1.4 __ +1.4 _ +0.9 _ +2.1 ___ +2.2 _ +1.1 __ +1.6 Scotty Lightning __________ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ___ +1.0 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 ____ +1.0 _ +1.5 _ +0.5 RodneyS __________________ +0.2 _ +0.9 _ +1.1 ___ -0.4 _ -0.6 _ +0.5 ___ +1.5 _ -0.6 _ +0.7 ___ Normal __________________0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ______________________________________________ Color codes show warmest and coldest forecasts, Normal is colder than all forecasts for DCA, NYC, BOS, IAH, DEN and SEA
  6. ===<<< ____________ Annual Scoring Report (Jan-July 2022) _______________>>>=== Total scores for each location, region ... best scores for locations in red, for regions in bold type. With many scores similar in July, there were two sets of changes in ranks; so_whats_happening is now third and Tom fourth, while wxallannj is now 6th and hudsonvalley21 is now 7th. Consensus moved up to second place and Normal remained between 10th and 11th, and also there is a prorated score for Stormchaser Chuck (4154), based on 7/5 times actual score, and with that he would again be just ahead of the total of our 8th ranked forecaster. FORECASTER ___________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east_ ORD_ATL_IAH __ cent _ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA __west __ TOTAL wxdude64 ______________467 _509 _527 __1503 __475 _531_ 396__1402_2905 __486 _578 _439 __1503 ____4408 ___ Consensus ___________488 _512 _488 __1488__442 _512 _352__1310 _2798__514 _582 _469 __1565 ____4363 DonSutherland1 ________ 544 _512 _512__1568__504 _478 _288__1270 _2838 __440 _580 _490 __1510 ____4348 so_whats_happening ____432 _494 _536__1462__449 _506_ 356__1311 _2773 __468 _580 _496 __1544 ____4317 Tom _____________________ 485 _519 _471 __1475__440 _487 _461__1388 _2863 __535 _507 _402 __1444 ____4307 RodneyS ________________ 484 _458 _450 __1392__366 _528 _394__1288 _2680 __546 _564 _484__1594____4274 wxallannj ________________430 _448 _448 __1326 __418 _472 _380__1270 _2596 __550 _576 _470 __1596____4192 hudsonvalley21 __________462 _498 _504 __1464__436 _476 _352__1264 _2728__452 _560 _438 __1450____ 4178 BKViking ________________ 490 _498 _460 __1448__398 _462 _334__1194 _2642 __520 _544 _440 __1504____4146 RJay _____________________466 _520 _498 __1484__425 _470 _358__1253 _2737 __480 _474 _407 __1361 ____4098 Scotty Lightning _________446 _478 _470 __1394 __378 _476 _382__1236 _ 2630 __456 _546 _362__1364____3994 _____ Normal _____________488 _466 _420 __1374 __396 _448 _322 __1166 _ 2540 __450 _470 _408__1328____3868 Roger Smith _____________ 388 _360 _266 __1014 __312 _ 374 _328 __1014 _2028 __486 _542 _475__1503____3531 Stormchaser Chuck (5/7)_334 _374 _367 __1075 __298 _ 414 _248 __960 __2035 __304 _373 _255 __932____2967 __ __ prorated Stormchaser Chuck would compare at 4154 total points. ========================================= Best Forecasts _ * tied for high score with one other forecaster __ ^ tied for high score with three others (Mar). FORECASTER __________ DCA_NYC_BOS _east_ ORD_ATL_IAH_ cent _c/e__ DEN_PHX_SEA _west _ total wxdude64 _______________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____ 0 ___ 1*___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____1 __ Jan DonSutherland1 __________4*^__ 2 ___ 0 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____3 ____1 ____2 __ Feb,May ___ Consensus ___________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 so_whats_happening _____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1*____ 1 __ Jul Tom ______________________ 1^___ 2 ___ 1 ____ 2 ____0 ___ 2 ___ 2 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1*___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 __ Mar RodneyS _________________ 1* ___ 0 ___ 1*____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 0___ 2*___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ____ 0 wxallannj ________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1*___ 2 ____ 0 hudsonvalley21 __________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1*___ 1*____ 0 BKViking _________________ 2^___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 RJay ______________________ 1^___ 0 ___ 1*____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 1 __ Jun Scotty Lightning __________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ Normal ________________ 2 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 Roger Smith _______________ 1 ___ 2 ___ 1*____2 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 3 ___ 1 ___ 1*___ 2 ____ 1 __ Apr Stormchaser Chuck _______ 1 ___ 1 ___ 2*____ 1 ___ 2 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 1 ____ 0 ========================= EXTREME FORECAST SCORING (second total in brackets adjusts for tied wins which are indicated by * in monthly logs only -- so far this has occurred eight times, once for SEA in Feb, once for IAH in Apr, once for DEN in May, once for BOS in June, once for SEA in June, once for DCA in July, once for BOS in July and once for ORD in July.) (in March, four shared a win for DCA shown by ^ -- this counts as 0.25 in the second bracketed total). (wins for Normal are in addition to forecaster wins and do not replace them _ Normal is not charged with a loss _ would have done so in April for DEN) So far, 46 of 63 forecasts qualify, 20 warmest and 26 coldest; Jan 0-5, Feb 4-4, Mar 2-2, Apr 3-6, May 4-2, June 3-4, July 4-3. FORECASTER ____________ Jan _Feb _Mar _Apr _May _Jun_ Jul __TOTAL (adj for ties) Roger Smith _____________ --- _ 1- 1 _ 2-0 _5-1_ ---_ 4**0 _ 0-3 __ 12-5 (11-5) DonSutherland1 _________ --- _ 4*-0_ 1^-0_1-0_ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 1*-0 ___ 9-0 (7.25 - 0) Stormchaser Chuck ______ 2-1 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 3-0 _2-0 _1*-0 ___ 8-1 (7.5 - 1) Tom ______________________ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 2^-0_1-0_ 1*-0_ ---- _ --- ___ 6-0 (4.75 - 0) wxdude64 ________________1-0 _ 3-0*_ --- _ --- _ --- _ ---- _ 1*-0 __ 5-0 (4.0 - 0) RodneyS _________________ --- _ 1-0 _ --- _ --- _ 2*-0_ 1*-0 _2*-0 _ 6-0 (4.5 -0) ____ Normal ______________ --- _ 1-0 _ --- _ 1-0 _ --- _ 2-0 _ _ 1-1 __ 5-1 RJay _____________________ --- _ --- _ 1^-0_ 1*-0_--- _ ---- _ 3*-0 __ 5-0 (3.25 - 0) so_whats_happening ____ 1-0 _ --- _ --- _ 1-0 _ --- _ ---- _ ---- ___ 2-0 hudsonvalley21 ___________--- _ --- _ --- _ 1*-1 _ --- _ ---- _1*-0 ___ 2-1 (1.0 - 1) wxallannj _________________--- _ --- _ 0-1 _ ---- _ --- _ 1*-0 _ 1-0 ___ 2-1 (1.5 -1) BKViking _________________ --- _ --- _ 1^-0_ --- _ --- _ ---- _ ---- ___ 1-0 (0.25 - 0) Scotty Lightning _________ --- _ --- _ --- _ ---- _ --- _ ---- _ ---- ___ 0-0 =============================== (Normal is not considered for ties and can score a loss when 0.0 is between a win and a loss, but not when 0.0 is lower than a winning low forecast)
  7. +1.7 _ +1.8 __ +2.4 __ +1.0 __ +1.2 __ +2.4 ___ +3.0 __ +1.0 __ +2.5
  8. Greetings from the source of all heat (sunny 102 F but it's a dry heat) ... anyway, just a reminder to participating NYC forum members that the August temperature forecast contest thread is open. The July scoring has been estimated and almost everybody scored very close to consensus despite a range of forecasts, just all variations cancelling out. This leaves the contest in perhaps the most competitive mode it has seen for many years. Annual update not yet posted but it was close after June so will stay that way, I believe.
  9. I am noticing that 1944 had a similar temperature outcome to what the GFS is advertising, four weeks from July 22 to Aug 18 inclusive looked like this, including a number of daily records in mid-August ... DAILY MAX TEMPS JULY 22 to AUG 18 1944 _ AVERAGE 91.7 F daily max ___ 89 93 93 94 91 93 91 87 91 90 90 81 83 100 101 89 80 85 88 97 102 97 96 95 95 96 95 85 After this temperatures were closer to average, peaked again around Sept 2nd and there was a major hurricane up the east coast in mid-September. 9.40" rain fell Sep 12-14 after a very dry interval mid-July to that event. Other years with significant heat in early to mid August before more recent examples would include 1896, 1916, 1918, 1930, 1949, 1955, the latter had hurricane strikes on the east coast almost concurrent with the heat. I would bet that if this GFS predicted pattern verifies, tropical activity will respond within a few weeks. The timing of this 1944 heat wave was such that it did not dominate either July or August so it is less recalled than some, but in terms of a non-calendar month of heat, it rivals anything else.
  10. And here's part two, the same analysis for daily minimum temps at NYC ... it picks up the tendency for mid-May and early November to run colder than long-term averages, with several records set in those periods, but I don't think that has anything to do with tree canopies in Central Park. Otherwise would say this looks more like you would expect the warmer modern climate to look, certainly December and February have seen disproportionate warmings. The daily mean graph would be a compromise of the two shown. GRAPH: NYC min temp differentials (1991-2020) minus (1931-1990) averages _ shows reduced to near absent relative temperature suppression May to October _ _ (more representative of generally warming climate trend with seasonal variation) _
  11. On that subject of NYC tree canopy temperature reduction, this graph shows the effect quite clearly. The graph is the differential of average daily maximum at NYC (1991-2020) minus (1931-1990). I checked graphs for same differential starting 1996 and 2001, very little difference apparent. Clearly the warming of the climate that is evident November to early April is negated by some factor and I have to suppose it is the tree canopy shading. Will post the same analysis for minimum daily temperatures which shows a somewhat similar trend but without suppressing the summer half year entirely, which is what one might expect, cooler days eventually cancelling out to some extent by the different dynamics of nocturnal temperature patterns. I would regard the minimum annual graph as within the range of seasonal variability in the warming climate although perhaps with a residual effect from the cooler daytime readings. GRAPH: NYC max temp differentials (1991-2020) minus (1931-1990) averages _ shows possible relative temperature suppression May to October _
  12. Thanks for the detailed responses to my questions about NYC, would it perhaps be correct to assume that the temperatures are more affected on the warmest days and those with light winds? I would think stronger winds might mix the air more and reduce the effect of the tree cover?
  13. Since I am doing research involving the NYC data base, I would be interested in thoughts about how long the tree canopy issue has possibly been affecting temperatures and by what amount, also could we say it was an issue only during foliation season? How strong a wind negates it? My belief is that the July 1936 heat wave would have registered something well over 100 F even in today's setting, but that aside, I am looking at comparing data with urban effects considered, and this tree canopy issue is an urban effect in the opposite direction to the urban heat island. My comparisons assumed a gradual rise in the u.h.i. throughout the data set to 1980 and a level signal since 1980 (at some point the urban area gets so large that increases stop happening near its center and are observed further out). The adjustments are more relevant to minimum than maximum temperatures for urban heat islands (typically, if an urban heat island is on the order of 2 F deg, then the average increases will be 0.5 daytime and 3.5 overnight). So I am considering adjusting the urban filter that I applied to include this tree canopy issue, any suggestions? Or is there an argument to be made that larger tree canopies have spread through significant portions of the metropolitan area therefore this is just part of the historical trend and something not to be filtered out, since we don't filter out changes to the agriculture of the great plains etc.
  14. Predict the anomalies (F deg) relative to 1991-2020 for DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA deadline for on-time entries 06z Monday August 1st.
  15. As noted in the table of entries, two locations (IAD, RIC) tied their existing seasonal max on Sunday 24th (from early climate reports, will check again later).
  16. Today BWI has moved up to 98F (early climate report, will check again later). The other three locations did not advance today.
  17. Final scoring for July 2022 SEA reported anomaly of +1.9 has to be checked later as two days missing data could alter the value in a later posting of the CF6. Most scores would change by the same amount also, high score(s) for SEA could be reduced slightly depending on what happens. My estimate is that the missing data will, if inserted into the table, change the anomaly to +1.6. FORECASTER __________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent _ c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west___TOTAL so_whats_happening ___ 64 _ 96 _ 74 __ 234 __ 68 _ 86 _ 78 __232 __466 __ 90 _ 92 _ 80 __ 262 ___ 728 RodneyS _______________ 92 _ 76 _ 38 __ 206 __ 88 _ 98 _ 70 __ 256 __462 __ 78 _ 88 _ 84 __ 250 ___ 712 Tom _____________________66 _ 98 _ 68 __ 232 __ 56 _ 74 _ 86 __ 216 __448 __ 86 _ 82 _ 90 __ 258 ___ 706 wxallannj ________________72 _ 88 _ 56 __ 216 __ 68 _ 86 _ 92 __ 246 __462 __ 88 _ 98 _ 54 __ 240 ___ 702 ___ Consensus __________72 _ 84 _ 52 __ 208 __ 72 _ 84 _ 78 __ 234 __442 __ 86 _ 96 _ 72 __ 254 ___ 696 wxdude64 ______________74 _ 78 _ 46 __ 198 __ 90 _ 82 _ 78 __ 250 __448 __ 84 _ 94 _ 54 __ 232 ___ 680 RJay ____________________52 _ 90 _ 82 __ 224 __ 38 _ 64 _ 82 __ 184 __408 __ 98 _ 64 _ 98 __ 260 ___ 668 hudsonvalley21 _________80 _ 86 _ 50 __ 216 __ 90 _ 84 _ 58 __ 232 __448 __ 68 _ 90 _ 58 __ 216 ___ 664 Scotty Lightning ________72 _ 80 _ 52 __ 204 __ 78 _ 84 _ 82 __ 244 __448 __ 52 _ 96 _ 62 __ 210 ___ 658 BKViking________________76 _ 80 _ 50 __ 206 __ 46 _ 62 _ 90 __ 198 __404 __ 92 _ 84 _ 78 __ 254 ___ 658 StormchaserChuck! ____ 48 _ 84 _ 82 __ 214 __ 38 _ 78 _ 58 __ 174 __388 __ 92 _ 84 _ 92 __ 268 ___ 656 DonSutherland1 ________ 92 _ 68 _ 42 __ 202 __ 82 _ 94 _ 62 __ 238 __440 __ 58 _ 96 _ 62 __216 ___ 656 Roger Smith ____________88 _ 52 _ 28 __ 168 __ 88 _ 76 _ 62 __ 226 __394 __ 62 _ 86 _ 66 __ 214 ___608 ___ Normal ______________98 _ 60 _ 32 __ 190 __ 98 _ 86 _ 42 __ 226 __416 __ 42 _ 76 _ 62 __180 ___ 596 ====================================== EXTREME FORECAST REPORT DCA (+0.1) _ Win for DonS and RodneyS (both +0.5) and Normal, loss for Roger Smith (-0.5) NYC (+2.0) _ did not qualify (third warmest forecast high score) BOS (+3.4) _ Win for RJay and StormchaserChuck (+2.5). ORD (-0.1) _ Win for wxdude64 and hudsonvalley21 (both +0.4) and Normal, loss for Roger Smith (-0.7) ATL (+0.7) _ Win for RodneyS (+0.8), loss for Roger Smith (-0.5) and Normal (0.0) IAH (+2.9) _ Win for wxallannj (+2.5) DEN (+2.9) _ Win for RJay (+3.0) PHX (+1.2) _ did not qualify, outcome close to consensus forecasts. SEA (+1.9) _ Win for RJay (+2.0)* _______ *Data incomplete, result may change if SEA finishes below +1.7.
  18. RIC moved up one degree on July 21st to 98 F (table edited). No changes yet to the other three locations. BWI tied their established seasonal max of 96F from May 31st on July 22nd for the second time (also June 17th).
  19. Monday's maximum temperatures in France are running close to GFS forecast projections so this tends to indicate that 40-41 will likely happen in parts of England on Tuesday. The highest value I saw in England on Monday was 38 C at Cambridge, with 37 at a number of locations including around greater London. Ireland also came very close to breaking their all-time record on Monday, which is a mere 33.3 C from June, 1887. An amateur station in Dublin equalled that value but I think the official stations will top out a little lower. There has always been some doubt expressed about the situation of the thermometer (in Kilkenny) for the 1887 record, in 2006 it was 32.8 C for a more reliable record. Here's a link to the maximum temperatures for France from meteociel. You can zoom in on regions using the menu available at the link. These are preliminary values just in since the period for them is 06z to 18z. Note several locations between 42 and 43 C or around 108-109 F. https://www.meteociel.fr/observations-meteo/tmaxi.php?region=
  20. Active shortwave moving inland tonight along the US-Canada border will run into that extreme humidity, some heavy rainfalls likely by Tuesday in that region. It has been quite dry here for the past few weeks, looking forward to some late night thunderstorm activity here, clearing out Monday afternoon. Speaking of the high dew points, I seem to recall some very high dews in July 1995 around Iowa and Illinois. Corn sweat, I believe it is called.
  21. Table of forecasts for Summer Max 2022 (updates now appearing here) FORECASTER ____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Roger Smith ______________ 104 __ 103 __ 101 ___ 98 __ 102 _ 108 __ 105 _ 119 __ 95 Scotty Lightning __________104 __ 101 ___ 99 ___ 97 __ 105 _ 110 ____ 97 _ 121 __ 90 DonSutherland1 __________ 104 __ 100 __ 101 ___100 ___ 99 _ 105 __ 100 _ 118 __ 92 so_whats_happening _____ 102 __ 101 ___ 99 ___ 97 __ 100 _ 102 __ 103 _ 121 __ 93 RJay ______________________ 102 ___99 ___ 99 ___ 99 __ 100 _ 105 __ 101 _ 119 __ 95 wxdude64 ________________ 102 ___99 ___ 98 ___ 99 __ 101 _ 106 ___ 99 _ 119 __ 93 hudsonvalley21 ___________ 101 __ 100 ___ 98 ___ 99 __ 100 _ 106 ___ 99 _ 119 __ 93 BKViking __________________ 100 ___99 ___ 97 ___ 99 __ 100 _ 101 __ 100 _ 119 __ 94 Tom ________________________ 99 ___99 ___ 97 ___102 __ 102 _ 107 ___ 97 _ 121 __ 97 RodneyS ___________________ 98 ___98 ___ 97 ___ 97 __ 100 _ 102 __ 102 _ 119 __ 93 wxallannj ___________________98 ___97 ___ 96 ___ 97 ___ 98 _ 100 ___ 96 _ 118 __ 92 Consensus (means) ________101 __100 ___ 98 ___ 99 __ 101 _ 105 __ 100 _ 119 __ 93 ___ to Aug 9 _______________ 99 __ 97 __100 _____ 99 __ 99 __105 _____101 _ 115 _ 95 ============================== Anomalies to 12th _______ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ___________________________-1.4 __+0.8 __+1.2 __ +0.3 __+1.1 __+3.9 __ +2.7 __+2.8 __+0.2* ___ (to 22nd) _____________-0.1 __+1.7 __ +2.5 ___ 0.0 __+0.5__+3.8 __ +4.2 __+3.6 __-0.4* __ (p29th from GFS) ______ 0.0 __+1.5 __+2.0 __ +1.5 __+1.5__+4.0 __ +3.0 __+3.0 __+1.0 __ (p31st from GFS) ______+0.5 _ +2.0 _ +2.5 __ 0.0 _ +0.5 __ +3.0 __ +3.0 __+1.5 __ +2.0 __ final anomalies ________ +0.1 _ +2.0 _ +3.4 __-0.1 _ +0.7 __ +2.9 __ +2.9 __ +1.2 __ +1.9 ___________ * SEA has missing data on 4th-5th, actual anomaly may be closer to 0.0 * SEA still has the missing data, -0.4 may be -0.5 after this is sorted out ================================== 13th _ Projections are based on subdued but above normal warmth in east and continued heat in west. At the moment these projections would score 738 out of 900 for consensus. 23rd _ New projections blend expected eastern heat with later near average, and sustained western warmth, the current provisionals would score 656 out of 900 for consensus. 28th _ Adjusted PHX end of month estimate to +2.0 due to some rather cool days there this past week, monsoon thunderstorms in the vicinity and lots of cloud. Hotter here at the US-Canada border than in most of the desert southwest. 30th _ Adjusted DEN and IAH down slightly to +3.0 each ... will be adjusting and finalizing all anomalies over the next 2-3 days. 31st _ 1st ... Final anomalies are now confirmed, SEA has posted a final anomaly of +1.9 but the CF6 has two missing days that I suspect may appear within a day or two and drop the average closer to +1.6 or so. Will score from +1.9 for now but may change that later. (NYC 79.5 4.55" for tables) 1.85" 18th
  22. Something comparable might be the extreme cold of winter 1917-18 to the record heat of August 1918. Although that was less sustained than the warmth of Dec 2015. NYC had the example also of the heavy snowfall in late Dec 1947 to the record heat in late August of 1948. Both 1944 and 1948 provide examples of summers when not much significant heat occur before late July and then a lot of heat comes in August. An even faster reversal of large magnitude was 1976-77 when a cold regime that persisted from October 1976 to January 1977 flipped during February to a very warm spring in 1977 (albeit with one brief reversal to anomalous late cold around May 8-9).
  23. No late forecasts, yay! (I hate those late penalties) ... Table of forecasts for July 2022 FORECASTER __________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA StormchaserChuck! ____ +2.7 _ +2.8 _ +2.5 ___+3.0 _+1.8 _ +0.8 ___ +2.5 _+2.0 _ +1.5 RJay ____________________ +2.5 _ +2.5 _ +2.5 ___+3.0 _+2.5 _ +2.0 ___+3.0 _+3.0 _ +2.0 so_whats_happening ___ +1.9 _ +1.8 _ +2.1 ___ +1.5 _ +1.4 _ +1.8 ___ +2.4 _ +1.6 _ +0.9 Tom _____________________+1.8 _ +1.9 _ +1.8 ___ +2.1 _ +2.0 _ +2.2 ___ +2.2 _ +2.1 _ +1.4 wxallannj ________________+1.5 _ +1.4 _ +1.2 ___ +1.5 _ +1.4 _ +2.5 ___ +2.3 _ +1.3 _ -0.4 Scotty Lightning ________+1.5 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ___ +1.0 _ +1.5 _ +2.0 ___ +0.5 _ +1.0 __ 0.0 ___ Consensus __________ +1.5 _ +1.2 _ +1.0 ___ +1.3 _ +1.5 _ +1.8 ___ +2.2 _ +1.4 _ +0.5 wxdude64 ______________+1.4 _ +0.9 _ +0.7 ___ +0.4 _ +1.6 _ +1.8 ___ +2.1 _ +0.9 _ -0.4 BKViking ________________ +1.3 _ +1.0 _ +0.9 ___+2.6 _ +2.6 _ +2.4 ___+2.5 _ +2.0 _+0.8 hudsonvalley21 __________+1.1 _ +1.3 _ +0.9 ___ +0.4 _ +1.5 _ +0.8 ___ +1.3 _ +0.7 _ -0.2 RodneyS ________________ +0.5 _ +0.8 _ +0.3 ___+0.5 _+0.8 _ +1.4 ___ +1.8 _ +0.6 _ +1.1 DonSutherland1 _________ +0.5 _ +0.4 _ +0.5 ___+0.8 _+1.0 _ +1.0 ___ +0.8 _ +1.4 __ 0.0 ___ Normal _______________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 Roger Smith ____________ -0.5 _ -0.4 _ -0.2 ___ -0.7 _ -0.5 _ +1.0 ___ +1.0 _ +0.5 _ +0.2 =========================================== Warmest and coldest forecasts are color coded. Normal is coldest for IAH, DEN and PHX.
  24. ===<<< ____________ Annual Scoring Report (Jan-June 2022) _______________>>>=== Total scores for each location, region ... best scores for locations in red, for regions in bold type. With most scores similar in June, there was only one set of changes in ranks; hudsonvalley21 (now 6th) and wxallannj (7th) moved ahead of BKViking (now 8th, although only two points behind 7th place). Consensus moved up closer to second place but did not change its rank, also Normal remained between 10th and 11th, and also there is a prorated score for Stormchaser Chuck (3467), based on 3/2 times actual score, and with that he would be around the same total as our 8th ranked total. FORECASTER ___________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east_ ORD_ATL_IAH __ cent _ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA __west __ TOTAL wxdude64 ______________393 _431 _481 __1305 __385 _449_ 318__1152 _2457 __402 _484 _385 __1271 ____3728 DonSutherland1 ________ 452 _444 _470__1366__422 _384 _226__1032 _2398 __382 _484 _428__1294____3692 ___ Consensus ___________416 _428 _436 __1280__370 _428 _278__1076 _2356__428 _486 _397 __1311 ____3667 Tom _____________________ 419 _421 _403 __1243__384 _413 _375__1172 _2415 __449 _425 _312 __1186 ____3601 so_whats_happening ____368 _398 _462 __1228__381 _420_ 278__1079 _2307 __378 _488 _416 __1282____3589 RodneyS ________________ 392 _382 _412 __1186 __278 _430 _324__1032 _2218 __468 _476 _400__1344____3562 hudsonvalley21 __________382 _412 _454 __1248__346 _392 _294__1032 _2280__384 _470 _380 __1234____3514 wxallannj ________________358 _360 _392 __1110 __350 _386 _288__1024 _2134 __462 _478 _416 __1356____3490 BKViking ________________ 414 _418 _410 __1242__352 _400 _244 __996 _2238 __428 _460 _362 __1250____3488 RJay _____________________414 _430 _416___1260__387 _406 _276__1069 _ 2329 __382 _410 _309 __1101 ____3430 Scotty Lightning _________374 _398 _418 __1190 __300 _392 _300__ 992 _ 2182 __404 _450 _300__1154____ 3336 _____ Normal _____________390 _406 _388 __1184 __298 _362 _280 __940 _ 2124 __408 _394 _346__1148____3272 Roger Smith _____________ 300 _308 _238 __ 846 __224 _ 298 _266 __788 _1634 __424 _456 _409__1289____2923 Stormchaser Chuck (4/6)_286 _290 _285 __861 __260 _ 336 _190 __ 786 __1647 __212 _289 _163 __ 664____2311 __ prorated Stormchaser Chuck would compare at 3467 total points. =========================================== Best Forecasts _ * tied for high score with one other forecaster __ ^ tied for high score with three others (Mar). FORECASTER __________ DCA_NYC_BOS _east_ ORD_ATL_IAH_ cent _c/e__ DEN_PHX_SEA _west _ total wxdude64 _______________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 __ Jan DonSutherland1 __________3^___ 2 ___ 0 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____3 ____ 1 ____ 2 __ Feb,May ___ Consensus ___________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 Tom ______________________ 1^___ 1 ___ 1 ____2 ____0 ___ 2 ___ 2 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1*___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 __ Mar so_whats_happening _____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1*____ 0 RodneyS _________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 2*___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 hudsonvalley21 __________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1*___ 1*____ 0 wxallannj ________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 2 ____ 0 BKViking _________________ 2^___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 RJay ______________________ 1^___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 1 __ Apr Scotty Lightning __________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ Normal ________________ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 Roger Smith _______________ 1 ___ 2 ___ 1*____2 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 3 ___ 1 ___ 1*___ 2 ____ 1 __ Jun Stormchaser Chuck _______ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 2 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ____ 0 ========================= EXTREME FORECAST SCORING (second total in brackets adjusts for tied wins which are indicated by * in monthly logs only -- so far this has occurred five times, once for SEA in Feb, once for IAH in Apr, once for DEN in May, once for BOS in June and once for SEA in June.) (in March, four shared a win for DCA shown by ^ -- this counts as 0.25 in the second bracketed total). (wins for Normal are in addition to forecaster wins and do not replace them _ Normal is not charged with a loss _ would have done so in April for DEN) So far, 39 of 54 forecasts qualify, 16 warmest and 23 coldest; Jan 0-5, Feb 4-4, Mar 2-2, Apr 3-6, May 4-2, June 3-4. FORECASTER ____________ Jan _Feb _Mar _Apr _May _Jun __TOTAL (adj for ties) Roger Smith _____________ --- _ 1- 1 _ 2-0 _5-1_ ---_ 4**-0___ 12-2 (11-2) DonSutherland1 _________ --- _ 4-0*_ 1-0^_1-0_ 1-0 _ 1-0 _____ 8-0 (6.75 - 0) Stormchaser Chuck ______ 2-1 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 3-0 _2-0 ____ 7-1 Tom ______________________ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 2-0^_1-0_ 1-0*_ ---- ___ 6-0 (4.75 - 0) wxdude64 ________________1-0 _ 3-0*_ --- _ --- _ --- _ ---- ___ 4-0 (3.5 - 0) RodneyS _________________ --- _ 1-0 _ --- _ --- _ 2-0*_ 1*-0 __ 4-0 (3.0 -1) ____ Normal ______________ --- _ 1-0 _ --- _ 1-0 _ --- _ 2-0 ___ 4-0 RJay _____________________ --- _ --- _ 1-0^_ 1-0*_--- _ ---- ___ 2-0 (0.75 - 0) so_whats_happening ____ 1-0 _ --- _ --- _ 1-0 _ --- _ ---- ___ 2-0 hudsonvalley21 ___________--- _ --- _ --- _ 1-1* _ --- _ ---- ___ 1-1 (0.5 - 1) wxallannj _________________--- _ --- _ 0-1 _ --- _ --- _ 1*-0 ___ 1-1 (0.5 -1) BKViking _________________ --- _ --- _ 1-0^_ --- _ --- _ ---- ___ 1-0 (0.25 - 0) Scotty Lightning _________ --- _ --- _ --- _ ---- _ --- _ ---- ___ 0-0 ===============================
  25. -0.5 _ -0.4 _ -0.2 ___ -0.7 _ -0.5 _ +1.0 ___ +1.0 _ +0.5 _ +0.2 (tried to message Scotty L, his in-box must be full, did send a reminder to wxdude64, hope it all works out _ otherwise, thanks for your entries)
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