Welcome to American Weather

Roger Smith

Members
  • Content count

    2,435
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by Roger Smith

  1. Provisional scoring for October 2017 Provisional scoring is based on the estimates in the table in the previous post. These scores will be adjusted each time a provisional anomaly changes, and will become final on November 1st. High scores among regular entrants in red, higher scores for either of the new entrants in italics -- both count towards high score counts in annual table (to be added around the 24th as confidence in these scoring outcomes grows). FORECASTER __________ DCA_NYC_BOS___east___ORD_ATL_IAH___cent___ TOTAL BKViking _______________ 96 _ 76 _ 68 ___ 240 ___ 80 _ 94 _ 70 ___ 244 ____ 484 Roger Smith ____________ 92 _ 72 _ 72 ___ 236 ___ 72 _ 88 _ 82 ___ 242 ____ 478 rainsucks _______________80 _ 94 _ 70 ___ 244 ___ 64 _ 86 _ 76 ___ 226 ____ 470 wxallannj _______________88 _ 64 _ 68 ___ 220 ___ 54 _ 88 _ 78 ___ 220 ____ 440 Neckbeard93 ____________76 _ 62 _ 66 ___ 204 ___ 88 _ 74 _ 70 ___ 232 ____ 436 dmillz25 _______________ 90 _ 70 _ 50 ___ 210 ___ 60 _ 70 _ 76 ___ 206 ____ 416 RodneyS _______________ 56 _ 58 _ 68 ___ 182 ___ 90 _ 60 _ 80 ___ 230 ____ 412 RJay __________________ 80 _ 60 _ 60 ___ 200 ___ 60 _ 76 _ 66 ___ 202 ____ 402 Consensus __________ 76 _58 _58 ___ 192 ___54 _74 _70 ___198 ___390 so_whats_happening _____ 76 _ 50 _ 60 ___ 186 ___ 50 _ 74 _ 76 ___ 200 ____ 386 hudsonvalley21 __________78 _ 62 _ 58 ___ 198 ___ 44 _ 70 _ 62 ___ 176 ____ 374 Damage in Tolland_______ 82 _ 56 _ 56 ___ 194 ___ 62 _ 90 _ 82 ___ 234 _ 428 ___________ (-15%) _____70 _ 48 _ 48 ___ 166 ___ 53 _ 77 _ 70 ___ 200 ____ 366 SnoSki14_______________ 10 _ 40 _ 70 ___ 120 ___ 60 _ 100_ 66 ___ 226 ____ 346 Tom ___________________62 _ 32 _ 32 ___ 126 ___ 50 _ 78 _ 70 ___ 198 ____ 324 H20town_wx ____________62 _ 38 _ 24 ___ 124 ___ 34 _ 84 _ 82 ___ 200 _ 324 __________ (-10%) ______56 _ 34 _ 22 ___ 112 ___ 31 _ 76 _ 74 ___ 181 ____ 293 wxdude64 ______________ 40 _ 28 _ 42 ___ 110 ___ 18 _ 62 _ 58 ___ 138 ____ 248 DonSutherland.1 _________52 _ 32 _ 26 ___ 110 ___ 44 _ 48 _ 34 ___ 126 ____ 236 SD ____________________ 40 _ 20 _ 10 ___ 070 ___ 00 _ 60 _ 66 ___ 126 ____ 196 Normal _________________ 20 _ 00 _ 00 ___ 020 ___ 00 _ 40 _ 46 ___ 086 ____ 106 Provisional scoring for western and for all nine contests October 2017 FORECASTER __________ DEN_PHX_SEA____TOTAL______All nine (= rank) BKViking _______________ 96 _ 74 _ 96 ____ 266 _______ 750 ( = 1 ) hudsonvalley21 __________90 _ 82 _ 84 ____ 256 ________ 630 ( = 5 ) so_whats_happening _____ 98 _ 68 _ 88 ____ 254 ________ 640 ( = 4 ) RJay __________________ 60 _ 76 _ 90 ____ 226 ________ 628 ( = 6 ) dmillz25 _______________ 90 _ 60 _ 60 ____ 210 ________ 626 ( = 7 ) rainsucks _______________80 _ 70 _ 60 ____ 210 ________ 680 ( = 3 ) Roger Smith ____________ 68 _ 88 _ 48 ____ 204 ________ 682 ( = 2 ) RodneyS _______________ 32 _ 88 _ 84 ____ 204 ________ 616 ( = 9 ) Consensus __________ 70 _62 _70 ____ 202 _______ 592 ( =11 ) wxallannj _______________70 _ 56 _ 58 ____ 184 ________ 624 ( = 8 ) Normal _________________60 _ 40 _ 80 ____ 180 ________ 286 ( =18) Tom ___________________76 _ 44 _ 56 ____ 176 ________ 500 ( =12) SD ____________________50 _ 60 _ 60 ____ 170 ________ 366 ( =17) Damage in Tolland_______ 70 _ 76 _ 46 _ 192 ___________ (-15%) _____60 _ 65 _ 39 ____ 164 ________ 530 ( =11) Neckbeard93 ____________48 _ 56 _ 54 ____ 158 ________ 594 ( =10) DonSutherland.1 _________32 _ 50 _ 72 ____ 154 ________ 390 ( =16) wxdude64 ______________46 _ 62 _ 42 ____ 150 ________ 398 ( =15) H20town_wx ____________46 _ 48 _ 70 _ 164 __________ (-10%) ______42 _ 43 _ 63 ____ 148 ________ 441 ( =14) SnoSki14_______________ 70 _ 30 _ 30 ____ 130 ________ 476 ( =13)
  2. Whoa, what happened to those negative anomalies in September? Anyway, time to prognosticate October ... the usual challenge, to predict F deg temperature anomalies (relative to 1981-2010) for ... DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ________ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Deadline for forecasts 06z October 1st, with penalties set at 1% every 2 hours until 18z Monday 2nd then increasing to 1% per hour. Good luck to all !
  3. A rather similar track for faster-moving Debbie (1961) gave wind gusts into the 80-90 knot range in parts of Ireland and caused considerable damage including de-roofing a hospital in Ulster. Ireland on high alert (as I know from being associated with weather forecasting groups there).
  4. Ranking seasons 1851 to 2017 167 North Atlantic tropical storm (or hurricane) seasons are ranked below by number of storms, then by hurricanes, and finally by major hurricanes. (original post) The assumption is made that 2017 will finish 17/10/5 and this assumption will be edited at the end of the season. 2017* may change ranks. It currently stands 9th and would stay there at 18/10/5 or 18/11/5. (edit October 14 at 15z -- NHC upgraded Ophelia to cat-3 which means the assumption has now changed to a finish of 17/10/6 but it will remain 9th at 18/10/6 or 18/11/6.) RANK _ YEAR ___ S __ H __ M _____ RANK __ YEAR ____ S __ H __ M _____ RANK __ YEAR ___ S _ M _ H _ 1 ___ 2005 ___ 28 _ 15 __ 7 ______ 61 ___ 1898 ____ 11 __ 5 __ 1 _____ 119t___ 1972 _____7 _ 3 _ 0 _ 2 ___ 1933 ___ 20 _ 11 __ 6 ______ 62t___ 1974 ____ 11 __ 4 __ 2 _____ 119t___ 1994 _____7 _ 3 _ 0 _ 3 ___ 2010 ___ 19 _ 12 __ 5 ______ 62t___ 2015 ____ 11 __ 4 __ 2 _____ 123 ___ 1858 _____6 _ 6 _ 0 _ 4 ___ 1995 ___ 19 _ 11 __ 5 ______ 64t___ 1937 ____ 11 __ 4 __ 1 _____ 124 ___ 1915 _____6 _ 5 _ 3 _ 5 ___ 1887 ___ 19 _ 11 __ 2 ______ 64t___ 1942 ____ 11 __ 4 __ 1 _____ 125t___ 1875 _____6 _ 5 _ 1 _ 6 ___ 2012 ___ 19 _ 10 __ 2 ______ 66t___ 1869 ____ 10 __ 7 __ 1 _____ 125t___ 1977 _____6 _ 5 _ 1 _ 7 ___ 2011 ___ 19 __ 7 __ 4 ______ 66t___ 1891 ____ 10 __ 7 __ 1 _____ 127 ___ 1941 _____6 _ 4 _ 3 _ 8 ___ 1969 ___ 18 _ 12 __ 5 ______ 66t___ 1903 ____ 10 __ 7 __ 1 _____ 128t___ 1856 _____6 _ 4 _ 2 _ 9 ___ 2017*___ 17 _ 10 __ 6 ______ 69 ___ 1948 ____ 10 __ 6 __ 4 _____ 128t___ 1882 ____ 6 _ 4 _ 2 _10 ___ 1936 ___ 17 __ 7 __ 1 ______ 70 ___ 1976 ____ 10 __ 6 __ 2 _____ 130t___ 1918 _____6 _ 4 _ 1 _11 ___ 1950 ___ 16 _ 11 __ 6 ______ 71 ___ 1908 ____ 10 __ 6 __ 1 _____ 130t___ 1965 _____6 _ 4 _ 1 _12 ___ 2008 ___ 16 __ 8 __ 5 ______ 72t___ 1943 ____ 10 __ 5 __ 2 _____ 132t___ 1904 _____6 _ 4 _ 0 _13t___ 1954 ___ 16 __ 7 __ 3 ______ 72t___ 1947 ____ 10 __ 5 __ 2 _____ 132t___ 1913 _____6 _ 4 _ 0 _13t___ 2003 ___ 16 __ 7 __ 3 ______ 72t___ 1970 ____ 10 __ 5 __ 2 _____ 132t___ 1986 _____6 _ 4 _ 0 _15 ___ 1949 ___ 16 __ 7 __ 2 ______ 72t___ 2006 ____ 10 __ 5 __ 2 _____ 135t___ 1851 _____6 _ 3 _ 1 _16 ___ 1916 ___ 15 _ 10 __ 5 ______ 76 ___ 1899 ____ 10 __ 3 __ 2 _____ 135t___ 1939 _____6 _ 3 _ 1 _17 ___ 2004 ___ 15 __ 9 __ 6 ______ 77 ___ 1963 _____ 9 __ 7 __ 2 _____ 137t___ 1862 _____6 _ 3 _ 0 _18 ___ 2001 ___ 15 __ 9 __ 4 ______ 78 ___ 1975 _____ 9 __ 6 __ 3 _____ 137t___ 1897 _____6 _ 3 _ 0 _19 ___ 2000 ___ 15 __ 8 __ 3 ______ 79 ___ 1888 _____ 9 __ 6 __ 2 _____ 137t___ 1911 _____6 _ 3 _ 0 _20 ___ 1932 ___ 15 __ 6 __ 4 ______ 80 ___ 1867 _____ 9 __ 6 __ 1 _____ 140 ___ 1982 _____6 _ 2 _ 1 _21 ___ 2007 ___ 15 __ 6 __ 2 ______ 81t___ 1889 _____ 9 __ 6 __ 0 _____ 141 ___ 1895 _____6 _ 2 _ 0 _22 ___ 1998 ___ 14 _ 10 __ 3 ______ 81t___ 1940 _____ 9 __ 6 __ 0 _____ 142 ___ 1852 _____5 _ 5 _ 1 _23 ___ 1944 ___ 14 __ 8 __ 3 ______ 83 ___ 1979 _____ 9 __ 5 __ 2 _____ 143 ___ 1876 _____5 _ 4 _ 2 _24 ___ 1990 ___ 14 __ 8 __ 1 ______ 84t___ 1863 _____ 9 __ 5 __ 0 _____ 144 ___ 1855 _____5 _ 4 _ 1 _25 ___ 1953 ___ 14 __ 7 __ 3 ______ 84t___ 1892 _____ 9 __ 5 __ 0 _____ 145t___ 1872 _____5 _ 4 _ 0 _26 ___ 1959 ___ 14 __ 7 __ 2 ______ 86 ___ 1938 _____ 9 __ 4 __ 2 _____ 145t___ 1920 _____5 _ 4 _ 0 _27 ___ 2016 ___ 14 __ 6 __ 2 ______ 87 ___ 1923 _____ 9 __ 4 __ 1 _____ 147 ___ 1873 _____5 _ 3 _ 2 _28 ___ 2013 ___ 14 __ 2 __ 0 ______ 88 ___ 2009 _____ 9 __ 3 __ 2 _____ 148t___ 1854 _____5 _ 3 _ 1 _29 ___ 1955 ___ 13 _ 10 __ 5 ______ 89 ___ 1859 _____ 8 __ 7 __ 1 _____ 148t___ 1910 _____5 _ 3 _ 1 _30 ___ 1996 ___ 13 __ 9 __ 6 ______ 90t___ 1871 _____ 8 __ 6 __ 2 _____ 148t___ 1922 _____5 _ 3 _ 1 _31 ___ 1934 ___ 13 __ 7 __ 1 ______ 90t___ 1879 _____ 8 __ 6 __ 2 _____ 148t___ 1929 _____5 _ 3 _ 1 _32t___ 1901 ___ 13 __ 6 __ 1 ______ 90t___ 2014 _____ 8 __ 6 __ 2 _____ 148t___ 1962 _____5 _ 3 _ 1 _32t___ 1971 ___ 13 __ 6 __ 1 ______ 93t___ 1861 _____ 8 __ 6 __ 0 _____ 153t___ 1864 _____5 _ 3 _ 0 _34 ___ 1984 ___ 13 __ 5 __ 1 ______ 93t___ 1885 _____ 8 __ 6 __ 0 _____ 153t___ 1902 _____5 _ 3 _ 0 _35 ___ 1931 ___ 13 __ 3 __ 1 ______ 95 ___ 1935 _____ 8 __ 5 __ 3 _____ 155 ___ 1919 _____5 _ 2 _ 1 _36 ___ 1893 ___ 12 _ 10 __ 5 ______ 96 ___ 1967 _____ 8 __ 5 __ 1 _____ 156 ___ 1905 _____5 _ 1 _ 1 _37 ___ 1886 ___ 12 _ 10 __ 4 ______ 97t___ 1853 _____ 8 __ 4 __ 2 _____ 157 ___ 1907 _____5 _ 0 _ 0 _38 ___ 1878 ___ 12 _ 10 __ 2 ______ 97t___ 1960 _____ 8 __ 4 __ 2 _____ 158 ___ 1884 _____4 _ 4 _ 1 _39 ___ 1999 ___ 12 __ 8 __ 5 ______ 97t___ 1991 _____ 8 __ 4 __ 2 _____ 159 ___ 1883 _____4 _ 3 _ 2 _40 ___ 1951 ___ 12 __ 8 __ 3 ______100t___ 1927 _____ 8 __ 4 __ 1 _____ 160 ___ 1983 ____ 4 _ 3 _ 1 _41t___ 1958 ___ 12 __ 7 __ 3 ______100t___ 1973 _____ 8 __ 4 __ 1 _____ 161t___ 1857 _____4 _ 3 _ 0 _41t___ 1981 ___ 12 __ 7 __ 3 ______100t___ 1993 _____ 8 __ 4 __ 1 _____ 161t___ 1868 _____4 _ 3 _ 0 _43 ___ 1964 ___ 12 __ 6 __ 6 ______103 ___ 1968 _____ 8 __ 4 __ 0 _____ 163 ___ 1917 _____4 _ 2 _ 2 _44 ___ 1909 ___ 12 __ 6 __ 4 ______104 ___ 1957 _____ 8 __ 3 __ 2 _____ 164 ___ 1890 _____4 _ 2 _ 1 _45 ___ 1988 ___ 12 __ 5 __ 3 ______105t___ 1877 _____ 8 __ 3 __ 1 _____ 165 ___ 1925 _____4 _ 1 _ 0 _46 ___ 1978 ___ 12 __ 5 __ 2 ______105t___ 1997 _____ 8 __ 3 __ 1 _____ 166 ___ 1930 _____3 _ 2 _ 2 _47 ___ 2002 ___ 12 __ 4 __ 2 ______107 ___ 1896 _____ 7 __ 6 __ 2 _____ 167 ___ 1914 _____1 _ 0 _ 0 _48 ___ 1956 ___ 12 __ 4 __ 1 ______108t___ 1860 _____ 7 __ 6 __ 1 _______ _49 ___ 1870 ___ 11 _ 10 __ 2 ______108t___ 1866 _____ 7 __ 6 __ 1 _______ _50t___ 1880 ___ 11 __ 9 __ 2 ______110 ___ 1894 _____ 7 __ 5 __ 4 _______ _50t___ 1980 ___ 11 __ 9 __ 2 ______111 ___ 1921 _____ 7 __ 5 __ 2 _______ _52 ___ 1961 ___ 11 __ 8 __ 7 ______112t___ 1912 _____ 7 __ 4 __ 1 _______ _53 ___ 1926 ___ 11 __ 8 __ 6 ______112t___ 1928 _____ 7 __ 4 __ 1 _______ _54t___ 1966 ___ 11 __ 7 __ 3 ______112t___ 1992 _____ 7 __ 4 __ 1 _______ _54t___ 1985 ___ 11 __ 7 __ 3 ______115t___ 1874 _____ 7 __ 4 __ 0 _______ _56 ___ 1989 ___ 11 __ 7 __ 2 ______115t___ 1881 _____ 7 __ 4 __ 0 _______ _57 ___ 1906 ___ 11 __ 6 __ 3 ______117 ___ 1900 _____ 7 __ 3 __ 2 _______ _58t___ 1924 ___ 11 __ 5 __ 2 ______118 ___ 1987 _____ 7 __ 3 __ 1 _______ _58t___ 1945 ___ 11 __ 5 __ 2 ______119t___ 1865 _____ 7 __ 3 __ 0 _______ _58t___ 1952 ___ 11 __ 5 __ 2 ______119t___ 1946 _____ 7 __ 3 __ 0 _______ _____________________________________________________________________ RANKS by Hurricanes only Rank __YEAR __________________________ H (M) ______ rank of majors __ 1 __ 2005 _________________________ 15 _ 7 _______ 1 (2 tied) __ 2t__ 1969, 2010 ____________________ 12 _ 5 _______ 9 (9 tied) __ 4t__ 1933, 1950 ____________________ 11 _ 6 _______ 3 (7 tied) __ 6 __ 1995 _________________________ 11 _ 5 _______10 (8 tied) __ 7 __ 1887 _________________________ 11 _ 2 _______42 (46 tied) __ 8 __ 2017 _________________________ 10 _ 6 _______ 3 (7 tied) __ 9t __ 1893, 1916, 1955 ______________ 10 _ 5 _______10 (8 tied) _ 12 __ 1886 _________________________ 10 _ 4 _______18 (7 tied) _ 13 __ 1998 _________________________ 10 _ 3 _______25 (17 tied) _ 14t _ 1870, 1878, 2012 _______________ 10 _ 2 _______42 (46 tied) _ 17t__ 1996, 2004 ____________________ 9 _ 6 _______ 3 (7 tied) _ 19 __ 2001 _________________________ 9 _ 4 _______18 (7 tied) _ 20t__ 1880, 1980 ____________________ 9 _ 2 _______42 (46 tied) _ 22 __ 1961 _________________________ 8 _ 7 _______ 1 (2 tied) _ 23 __ 1926 _________________________ 8 _ 6 _______ 3 (7 tied) _ 24t__ 1999, 2008 ____________________ 8 _ 5 _______10 (8 tied) _ 26t__ 1944, 1951, 2000 _______________ 8 _ 3 _______25 (17 tied) _ 29 __ 1990 _________________________ 8 _ 1 _______ 88 (49 tied) _ 30 __ 2011 _________________________ 7 _ 4 _______ 18 (7 tied) _ 31t__ 1953,54,58, 1966, 1981,85, 2003 __ 7 _ 3 _______ 25 (17 tied) _ 38t__ 1949, 1959, 1963, 1989 __________7 _ 2 _______ 42 (46 tied) _ 42t__ 1859,1869,1891,1903,1934,1936___7 _ 1 ________88 (49 tied) _ 48 __ 1964 _________________________6 _ 6 ________ 3 (7 tied) _ 49t__ 1909, 1932, 1948 ______________ 6 _ 4 _______ 18 (7 tied) _ 52 __ 1906, 1975 ____________________6 _ 3 _______ 25 (17 tied) _ 54t__ 1871,79,88,96, 1976, 2007,14,16 __6 _ 2 _______ 42 (46 tied) _ 62t__ 1860,66,67 1901,08, 1971 _______ 6 _ 1 _______ 88 (49 tied) _ 68t__ 1858, 1861, 1885, 1889, 1940 ____6 _ 0 ______ 137 (31 tied) _ 73 __ 1894 ________________________ 5 _ 4 ______ 18 (7 tied) _ 74t__ 1915, 1935, 1988 ______________ 5 _ 3 ______ 25 (17 tied) _ 77t__1921,24,43,45,47,52,70,78,79,2006_5 _ 2 ______ 42 (46 tied) _ 87t__1852,1875,1898, 1967,1977,1984 __5 _ 1 ______ 88 (49 tied) _ 93t__ 1863, 1892 ___________________ 5 _ 0 ______ 137 (31 tied) _ 95 __ 1941 ________________________ 4 _ 3 ______ 25 (17 tied) _ 96t __1853,56,76,82, _________ 1938,60,74,91, 2002, 2015 ___ 4 _ 2 ______ 42 (46 tied) _106t __1855,84, 1912,18,23,27,28, ________1937,42,56,65,73,92,93 _______ 4 _ 1 _______ 88 (49 tied) _120t __1872,74,81, 1904,13,20,68,86 ___ 4 _ 0 ______ 137 (31 tied) _128t __1873,83,99, 1900, 1957, 2009 ___ 3 _ 2 _______ 42 (46 tied) _134t __1851,54,77, 1910,22,29, ________ 1931,39,62,83,87,97 _________ 3 _ 1 ________ 88 (49 tied) _146t __1857,62,64,65,68, 1897, ________ 1902, 1911, 1946, 1972, 1994__3 _ 0 ________137 (31 tied) _157t __ 1917, 1930 _________________ 2 _ 2 ________ 42 (46 tied) _159t __ 1890, 1919, 1982 ____________ 2 _ 1 ________ 88 (49 tied) _162t __ 1895, 2013 _________________ 2 _ 0 ________ 137 (31 tied) _164 ___ 1905 ______________________ 1 _ 1 ________ 88 (49 tied) _165 ___ 1925 ______________________ 1 _ 0 ________ 137 (31 tied) _166t __ 1907, 1914 _________________ 0 _ 0 ________ 137 (31 tied) ____________________________________________________ seasons with this many majors: 7 _ 2 6 _ 7 5 _ 8 4 _ 7 3 _17 2 _46 1 _49 0 _31
  5. (original post) With Ophelia likely to reach hurricane status, the count for October would then be 2/2/0. The seasonal count will then become 15/10/5. I had posted a provisional scoring table earlier (previous post) and today I revised that slightly with the assumptions of one more named storm later in October, a count of 3/2/0, and the consensus value of 1/0/0 for Nov-Dec. That would give us an annual total of 17/10/5. This provisional scoring table will be adjusted if necessary from later developments or lack of developments. Basically, the scoring can improve for those of us who have room left in our October and seasonal forecasts to handle two more storms in October and in some cases more hurricanes and one major. Differences in November forecasts are slight and that component is only worth a maximum of 2 points. However, anybody has the option of adjusting their Nov-Dec forecast if they see any advantage in doing so (up until Nov 1 06z). (added Oct 14) ... Ophelia has reached cat-3 and thus the count for October is 2/2/1 and the seasonal count is 15/10/6. Changes in the provisional scoring table will be made on assumptions of a final October 3/2/1 and seasonal 17/10/6.
  6. To encourage a few more entries, and given that there seems to be little activity expected this week, the deadline will be extended to Tuesday June 6th at 23z. You could still enter after that but I will start assessing penalties at the following rates: seasonal will lose one point each day entered after June 6th and June monthly will move to the standard "portion of month elapsed" deduction which by 7th will be 20%. (this penalty will be waived for entries made before June 6th 23z -- note to any entrants already registered, you can edit your predictions up to that extended deadline, table of entries to be posted on June 7th from entries then placed in the thread. After reviewing how the last two contests went, I will use the same format as last year. Here's the simplified version of how to enter: 1. Enter your seasonal forecast (named storms / hurricanes / major hurricanes) in this thread before 06z June 1st, with 1% per day reductions in score for late entries. This portion of the contest is worth 50% of the total score but will also be tabulated in order of finish. Please note that in April, Tropical Storm Arlene made the count for 2017 1/0/0 before you even enter, so factor that into your prediction. Any storms that are named in May will also count towards the seasonal total but not the monthly portion of the contest. If you enter before a named storm is declared in May, either edit your post, or allow me to add the results of the named storm to your prediction (most people ensure that their seasonal forecast is the sum of their monthly forecasts). 2. If you want to enter a specific June forecast and other months later in the year, add those to your seasonal. Last year, I think all but one contestant entered all of their months in advance and one or two adjusted during the contest. One never entered any monthlies and was assigned a pro-rated version of the contest normal. NOV-DEC will count as one forecast, so you can enter monthlies for JUN, JUL, AUG, SEP, OCT and NOV-DEC. If you do not enter monthlies, you will be assigned provisional but fully-scoring estimates based on your seasonal weighted from this "contest normal" which is adjusted from last year which already had Alex and Bonnie, as Bonnie 2016 = Arlene 2017, the contest normal is set at last year's 16/8/3 minus 1/1/0 for Alex. The seasonal contest normal is set at 15/7/3. This is adjusted from the 1989-2016 average of 14/7/3. It will be adjusted again if necessary by whatever may happen later in May. _________________________ SEASON __ APR _ MAY _ JUN _ JUL _ AUG_ SEP _ OCT_ N-D Adjusted Normal 1989-2016____ 15_7_3 __ 100 _ 000__100__100__421__531__321__000 (note that N-D has an actual average of something like 0.4/0.1/0.01 so it rounds down to 000) Your assigned monthlies will be adjusted from these as required, and you will see them in the table of forecasts -- if your June forecast does not match the provisional then the other months will not be adjusted, so your monthlies might not add up. Some of you will probably want to enter each month like last year, and you only need to do that if you don't want to use the already posted provisional. 3. Then if you want to update your monthly forecasts to fit your own estimate, the table will change to reflect your forecasts, but future provisionals will continue to appear unchanged and your ongoing total may continue to be different from your seasonal as a result. There is no requirement for monthly entrants to match their seasonals and monthlies. There will not be any scoring adjustments available for seasonal updates, you can make them, but the contest will not award any different scores for them. 4. Seasonal forecasts are scored from a maximum of 50 points, reduced by the average of one point per error in each category plus that number squared. Example, you predict 11/6/2 and reality is 14/7/4. You then lose (3+9)/2 or 6 points for your named storms, (1+1)/2 or one point for your hurricanes and (2+4)/2 or 3 points for your major hurricanes. Your score is then 50-6-1-3 or 40. 5. Monthly forecasts are scored the same way as above from totals available of 4 (June), 6 (July), 12 (August), 16 (September), 10 (October) and 2 (Nov-Dec) except that June, July and Nov-Dec error reductions are divided by two (e.g., if the normal method would give you 3.0 out of 6.0 for July, the adjusted method gives you 4.5. Monthly forecasts that you submit are subject to 1% reductions for every 3h late (the deadline is 03z of 1st each month except for June 06z). These late penalties will be doubled as soon as a named storm exists in the month in question. The June deadline, however, may be extended slightly to encourage more entries unless named storms are imminent. Expect an absolute cutoff by end of June 3rd with penalties after that. The best entry method is to copy this template and add in your numbers (and name) User Name ___ Seasonal (xx/xx/x) __ APR 1/0/0 _ MAY 0/0/0 _ JUN x/x/x _ JUL x/x/x _ AUG x/x/x _ SEP x/x/x _ OCT x/x/x _ NOV-DEC x/x/x FAQ _ Should I include any May named storm in my seasonal forecast? __ Yes, you are basically forecasting the normal season plus the count for May (which is currently 0/0/0) and you should also include Arlene (1/0/0) from April 2017. What if there's a named storm in May after I enter? __ If you don't edit in that change, I will edit it into your forecast by adding 1/0/0 to your seasonal forecast; if you want to stay at the original prediction despite the May storm and your monthly forecasts as submitted, edit in that request. Nothing gets tabulated until June 4th. What if I (or the NWS) forecast a range? __ The contest will take the median of your various ranges and score those only. If you want to give decimals, we'll score from those. What if I report on a forecast from elsewhere? __ Unless you are involved in making that forecast, then we'll score it but it won't count in the standings. If you are involved in it and want to enter it, make it clear that it's your personal entry. What month does each named storm belong to? __ In this contest, each named storm belongs to whatever month it was first named in (according to the NWS conventions as to time zones etc). Then whatever that storm goes on to do will belong to that same month. So for example, a tropical storm named on Aug 31 will count in the August forecast for all of its exploits as a hurricane or major hurricane in September. The timing of any given storm receiving a number but not a name is irrelevant to the contest. As with last year, where there was one storm that had its hurricane phase in a different month than its tropical storm phase, an alternate scoring table was posted and the same entry won either way. _______________________________________________________________ Good luck. Defending champ is Ohiowx. In 2015 it was Troy1234 with Stebo the winner in 2014. CSU forecast is 11/4/2. I will assign some monthly values to that one scaled down from contest normals. The NHC forecast will be entered as well, when I get the details.
  7. (9th) _ First report on the anomalies after eight days, with projections to 15 days from NWS forecasts and to 25 days, using days 8 to 16 of the current 12z GFS. Currently snowing in DEN with two very large negative anomalies today and tomorrow but generally near normal there after that, very warm weather predicted to continue for eastern, central regions. (16th) _ Second report after 15 days ... (21st) _ Third report after 20 days ... _____________________ DCA _NYC _BOS ___ ORD _ATL _IAH ____ DEN _PHX _SEA ________ (8 d) _______ +5.8_+7.9_+6.9 ___+10.3_+4.4_+4.9 ___ --0.9_+1.3_--0.2 _______ (15 d) _______ +7.8_+8.5_+7.3 ___ +9.0_+7.6_+5.4 ___ --3.4_ +1.7_--1.9 _______ (20 d) _______ +6.3_+7.2_+6.9 ___ +8.6_+5.6_+3.6 ___ --0.2_ +3.1_--1.3 ______ (p 27 d) _______ +5.7_+6.7_+7.0 ___ +7.0_+4.3_+3.0 ___ +1.0_+3.0_+0.7 ______ (p 31 d) _______ +4.0_+5.0_+5.0 ___ +5.0_+3.0_+2.7 ___ +2.0_+3.0_+1.0 next update after 24 days on 25th and then for 27 days, and daily to end of month.
  8. I would not be surprised to find Nate reaching cat-3 intensity by 18z Saturday then making a landfall as cat-2, Mobile Bay could be in a prime position for storm surge with possible dual landfalls se LA and MS. My reasoning is that Nate already showing steady improvement in organization and will be done with any land interaction by 06z then entering a zone of central GOM where rapid intensification has occurred many times in the past. It has the look of a stronger system than just cat-1.
  9. NAME for this one is Nate, next one: Ophelia -- let's hope it doesn't flatten any hamlets.
  10. The contest enters a new season with DonSutherland.1 edging a little further ahead of RJay overall and in the original six, meanwhile RJay has the western lead ahead of some guy we never heard of before. The clallenge is to predict temperature anomalies (in F deg) relative to 1981-2010 normal (average) values for these nine locations: ___ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Deadline for entries without late penalties is 06z, Friday September 1st. Penalties of 1% per 2h late then apply for 36h and after that it would be 1% per hour. Make a note to yourself to enter before you disappear for Labor Day weekend festivities.
  11. Table of forecasts for October 2017 FORECASTER ____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ____ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ______DEN _ PHX _ SEA SnoSki14_______________ +8.5 _ +8.0 _+6.5 ___ +3.0 _ +3.0 _ +1.0 ___ +0.5 _ --0.5 _ --2.5 rainsucks _______________+5.0 _ +4.7 _ +3.5 ___ +6.8 _ +2.3 _ +1.5 ___ +1.0 _ +1.5 _ --1.0 BKViking _______________ +3.8 _ +3.8 _ +3.4 ___ +4.0 _ +2.7 _ +1.2 ___ +1.8 _ +1.7 _ +0.8 Roger Smith ____________ +3.6 _ +3.6 _ +3.6 ___ +3.6 _ +3.6 _ +3.6 ___ +3.6 _ +3.6 _ +3.6 dmillz25 _______________ +3.5 _ +3.5 _ +2.5 ___ +3.0 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 ___ +1.5 _ +1.0 _ --1.0 wxallannj _______________+3.4 _ +3.2 _ +3.4 ___ +2.7 _ +2.4 _ +1.6 ___ +0.5 _ +0.8 _ --1.1 Damage in Tolland_(-15%)_+3.1 _ +2.8 _ +2.8 ___ +3.1 _ +2.5 _ +1.8 ___ +0.5 _ +1.8 _ --1.7 RJay __________________ +3.0 _ +3.0 _ +3.0 ___ +3.0 _ +1.8 _ +1.0 _____0.0 _ +1.8 _ +1.5 hudsonvalley21 __________+2.9 _ +3.1 _ +2.9 ___ +2.2 _ +1.5 _ +0.8 ___ +2.5 _ +2.1 _ +1.8 Neckbeard93 ____________+2.8 _ +3.1 _ +3.3 ___ +4.4 _ +1.7 _ +1.2 ___ --0.6 _ +0.8 _ --1.3 Consensus __________+2.8 _+2.9 _+2.9 ___+2.7 _+1.7 _+1.2 ___+0.5 _+1.1 _--0.5 so_whats_happening _____ +2.8 _ +2.5 _ +3.0 ___ +2.5 _ +1.7 _ +1.5 ___ +2.1 _ +1.4 _ +1.6 H20town_wx __ (-10%) ___+2.1 _ +1.9 _ +1.2 ___ +1.7 _ +2.2 _ +1.8 ___ --0.7 _ +0.4 _ --0.5 Tom ___________________+2.1 _ +1.6 _ +1.6 ___ +2.5 _ +1.9 _ +1.2 ___ +0.8 _ +0.2 _ --1.2 RodneyS _______________ +1.8 _ +2.9 _ +3.4 ___ +5.5 _ +1.0 _ +3.7 ___ --1.4 _ +2.4 _ +1.8 DonSutherland.1 _________ +1.6 _ +1.6 _ +1.3 ___ +2.2 _ +0.4 _ --0.6 ___ --1.4 _ +0.5 _ --0.4 wxdude64 ______________ +1.0 _ +1.4 _ +2.1 ___ +0.9 _ +1.1 _ +0.6 ___ --0.7 _ +1.1 _ --1.9 SD ____________________ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 _____0.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ___ --0.5 _ +1.0 _ --1.0 Normal ___________________0.0 __0.0 __0.0 _____0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 __ 0.0__ 0.0 ... Consensus values are 8th ranked of the 15 regular entrants in the contest, basically from BKViking down to SD, Normal and the two newbies at the top of the table are not part of that calculation. Table is arranged by DCA forecasts so the others just fall where they may, NYC is used to arrange equal DCA, then BOS etc. ... color codes, red for warmest of regular forecasters, blue for coldest, anything more extreme from later entrants is underlined ... Normal is coldest where bold type used (tied ORD and coldest among regular forecasters PHX). ... Welcome to SnoSki14, rainsucks (second month now), and good luck everyone.
  12. Well, regular forecasters (15 or 16 of us), we had our butts kicked by both new forecasters "rainsucks" and IntenseBlizzard2014 this month. Congrats to them. The seasonal MAX contest is declared final (post 21) and there again, CCM who entered only to do that contest and one month won the top spot, BKViking was a close second.
  13. Extreme forecast report update This month produced five extreme forecast wins with some losses. DCA _ At a final value of +1.5, it's a win for SD (+1.0) and a loss for rainsucks (+3.0). NYC _ The final value (+2.5) gives rainsucks (+2.5) a win and SD (+1.0) a "within regular forecasters" win. BOS _ The final value (+2.2) gives rainsucks (+1.8) a win and SD (+0.5) a "within regular forecasters" win. ORD _ The final value (+4.8) gives rainsucks (+3.5) a win and both SD and so_what's_happening (+0.4) the "regular forecasters" win. ATL and IAH did not qualify with outcomes near consensus. DEN (final value +1.7) was rather close to consensus and did not qualify. PHX (final value -0.5) was a win for rainsucks (-0.7) and also for wxdude64 (-0.2, 2% late penalty) best score among regular forecasters. SEA just fell short of qualifying at +3.4, four forecasts were warmer and fifth warmest Stebo (+3.4) has the high score. UPDATED TABLE OF EXTREME FORECASTS (wins and losses) RJay _____________ 8-0 DonSutherland1 _____6-1 Damage in Tolland ___4-0* Normal ____________4-0 Neckbeard93 _______ 4-2 Stebo _____________4-3 SD _______________ 4-0 Wxdude64 _________ 4-0 so_whats_happening _4-0 rainsucks __________ 4-1 Prestige Worldwide __ 3-0 Wxallannj __________3-1 H2OTown__Wx _____ 2-0 Maxim ____________ 2-0 Roger Smith ________2-0 Dmillz25 ___________2-1 RodneyS __________ 1-0 JBG ______________ 1-0 CCM ______________ 1-1 ____________________________________________ * no decision for DCA July 2017
  14. The September count is 4/4/3. September scores are from a base of 16 for a perfect forecast. The actual scores for forecasts made (those not in the table are not shown here): Forecast _____ Score ______ Forecaster(s) 6 4 3 ________ 13.0 _______ Windspeed 6 4 2 ________ 12.0 _______ rockchalk83, dmillz25 5 4 3 ________ 15.0 _______ Roger Smith 5 4 2 ________ 14.0 _______ NJwx85 5 4 1 ________ 12.0 _______ NCForecaster89 5 3 2 ________ 13.0 _______ Ser Pounce, ldub23 5 3 1 ________ 11.0 _______ NHC mid-range, Contest Normal 5 2 1 _________ 9.0 _______ Matt Petrulli 4 3 2 ________ 14.0 _______ RJay, Yoda, Consensus 4 2 1 ________ 10.0 _______ Stebo, NWLinnCountyIA, CSU 3 2 1 _________ 9.0 _______ kalasea, radarman, pcbjr 3 0 0 _________ 0.0 _______ Kurzov ____________________________________________________________________________ Following is a provisional total scoring table based on 3 2 0 in October (upgraded to 3 2 1 on Oct 14) and 1 0 0 in Nov-Dec. This will be edited whenever (a) better estimates can be made or (b) reality confirmed is different at end of month, Seasonal score was 13/8/5 when the table was posted in early October, and would finish 17/10/6 if these estimates verify. Of course, they may not and your score could improve or worsen as a result. No scores are given for April which was a "given" for all entries. (ranks are among 17 entrants, based on these assumptions, and ranks for other scores such as normal, consensus, NHC and CSU do not affect ranks of the 17 entrants). FORECASTER ____ Season __APR__ JUN ___ JUL ____ AUG ____ SEP ___ OCT ___ NOV-DEC __ TOTAL Kurzov ________ 22 8 2_ 22 _100_ 110_3.0 _220_4.5 _321_ 7 _300_ 0 _211_ 8 _ 100_2.0 __ 46.5 (15) Windspeed _____21 11 5_38 _100_ 210_3.5 _320_4.0 _420_ 6 _643_13 _422_ 8 _100_2.0 __ 77.5 (8) Roger Smith ____19 13 6_41 _100_ 110_3.0 _210_5.5 _431_10 _543_15 _432_7 _210_1.0 __ 82.5 (3) Kalasea _______ 18 13 6_43 _100_ 100_3.5 _421_2.5 _221_ 5 _321_ 9 _ 443_ 3 _330_0.0 __ 66.0 (13) rockchalk83 ____18 10 5_48 _100_ 000_2.5 _211_5.0 _431_10 _642_11 _421_ 9 _100_2.0 __ 87.5 (1) dmillz25 _______17 7 3 _38 _100_ 200_4.0 _310_5.0 _421_ 8 _ 642_11 _200_ 5 _000_1.5 __ 72.5 (9) Stebo _________16 9 4 _45 _100_ 200_4.0 _321_3.5 _431_10 _421_10 _211_ 8 _110_1.5 __ 82.0 (4) NJwx85 _______ 16 9 3 _42 _100_ 100_3.5 _210_5.5 _321_ 7 _542_14 _320_ 9 _100_2.0 __ 83.0 (2) NCforecaster89 _ 16 8 3 _40 _100_ 100_3.5 _210_5.5 _421_ 8 _541_12 _211_ 8 _100_2.0 __ 79.0 (7) Consensus* ____ 16 8 3 _40_100_ 100_3.5 _210_5.5 _321_ 7 _432_14 _321_10 _100_2.0 __ 82.0 (4) Ser Pounce _____15 9 3 _40 _100_ 100_3.5 _210_5.5 _431_10 _532_13 _220_ 8 _000_1.5 __ 81.5 (5) Contest Normal _ 15 8 3 _38 _100_ 100_3.5 _100_5.5 _421_ 8 _531_11 _321_ 10 _000_1.5 __ 77.5 (8) RJay __________ 15 8 3 _38 _100_ 100_3.5 _210_5.5 _431_10 _432_14 _210_ 7_100_2.0 __ 80.0 (6) NWLinnCountyIA _15 6 3 _31 _100_ 100_3.5 _100_5.5 _421_ 8 _421_10 _321_10 _100_2.0 __ 70.0 (10) Matt Petrulli ____ 15 6 2 _27 _100_ 100_3.5 _210_5.5 _421_ 8 _521_ 9 _210_ 7 _000_1.5 __ 61.5 (14) .NHC (mid-range) 14 7 3 _32 _100_100_3.5_ 100_5.5 _321_ 7 _531_11 _321_10_000_1.5 __ 70.5 (10) Yoda __________ 13 8 3 _31 _100_ 000_2.5 _210_5.5 _320_ 5 _432_14 _321_10 _000_1.5 __ 69.5 (11) ldub23 _________13 8 3 _31 _100_ 100_3.5 _110_5.0 _321_ 7 _532_13 _220_ 8 _000_1.5 __ 69.0 (12) radarman _______12 5 2 _10 _100_ 100_3.5 _211_5.0 _310_ 2 _321_ 9 _210_ 7 _000_1.5 __ 38.0 (16) pcbjr __________ 11 5 2 _ 4_ 100_ 000_2.5 _000_4.5 _210_ 0 _ 321_ 9 _421_ 9 _100_2.0 __ 31.0 (17) ..... CSU ________11 4 2 _ 0 _100_ 000_2.5 _100_5.5 _311_ 4 _421_10 _210_ 7 _000_1.5 __ 30.5 (17) _______________________________________________________________________ * Consensus is derived from means for 17 forecasts not incl NHC, CSU, Normal, and the means are listed below to one decimal (rounded in table above) Scores for mean _______ 42.3 __ --- ____ 2.9 ____ 5.4 ____ 7.7 ____ 12.7 ___9.3 ___ 1.8 ___ 82.1 Mean _______ 16.0,8.4,3.4 _ 100 _ 1.0,0.2,0 _ 2.1,1.1,0.2 _ 3.4,2.2,0.8 _ 4.4,2.8,1.6 _ 2.8,1.6,0.8 _ 0.8,0.3,0
  15. I'll take half-strength 1963 reruns for $200, Alex ... +3.6 for all nine of them ... if I get more inspired, I will edit the different numbers that are just about +3.6 into the table. RJay, if you read this, and the thread's not pinned yet, could you pin it? Thanks
  16. I thought that perhaps New York area readers might be interested in this news item (from Dominica News Online) "Prime Minister Skerrit is scheduled to give an address at the UN headquarters in New York City tomorrow Saturday, September 23rd between the hours of 11:00 AM and 12:30 PM EDT. At 7:00 PM that evening, he is slated to make a presentation to expatriates, friends and patrons of Dominica at the Beulah Church of the Nazarene located in the Crown Heights section of Brooklyn. Address: 1250 St. John’s Place, Brooklyn, NY 11213. All Dominicans and otherwise concerned individuals are invited to attend."
  17. This is the first detailed report I have seen from Dominica. https://pressroom.oecs.org/hurricane-maria-situation-report-1 (note there is an embedded NHC link which the report must have meant to freeze at Dominica's encounter but it shows the current advisory, ignore that part ... the pictures are about what I had envisaged and one can only imagine what may have occurred in isolated communities closer to the eyewall track).
  18. I believe the fastest moving Atlantic tropical cyclone on record was the 1938 "Long Island Express." It went from 30 N 75 W at 00z Sept 21 to 35 N 73.5W at 12z, near 40 N at 18z and made landfall on Long Island (41 N) at 21z. By 00z it was in southern VT at 43N. So it gained 13 deg of latitude while shifting about 2 deg east in 24 hours, and was travelling over 60 mph at some points. You have to wonder how well modern computer models would have handled it.
  19. and vice-versa
  20. <<< ---=--- 2017 Annual Scoring Summary (January-September) ---=--- >>> ... ... ... ... ... ... ... (see post 23 above for final September scoring) ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... Best scores: The first six numbers refer to the six locations, the last two refer to eastern and central division totals. Months won (in this part of the contest) are shown by name after the number codes. There are sometimes ties so the totals may add up higher than the number of months. Best total scores January-September are highlighted in red in the table for six locations, and in bold italic for two groups and for all six. Also, best scores are awarded both within the group of regular entrants and the larger total field; this explains some double entries this month. FORECASTER _________DCA_NYC_BOS__east____ORD_ATL_IAH___cent ___TOTAL__Best scores, months 1 DonSutherland.1 ____505 _474 _452 _1431___494 _626 _633_1753__ 3184 _001.122.1.3_Jan, May 2 RJay _____________ 458 _499 _472 __1429 ___447 _618 _627 __1692___3121_122.311.2.3_Feb, Apr 3 Consensus _________448 _428 _423 __1299 ___436 _591 _585 __1612___2911 __010.000 3 wxallannj __________489 _442 _486__1417 ___373 _537 _562 __1472___2889 __002.012..1.0 _Jun 4 BKViking __________ 460 _ 440 _470 __1370 ___434 _579 _502 __1515___2885 __000.001 5 SD _______________ 490 _467 _455 __1412 ___464 _511 _478__1453 ___2865 _ 121200.1.0 _ Sep 6 Stebo _____________450 _461 _423 __1334 ___389 _534 _545 __1468___2802 __011.102.1.0 __ Jul 7 hudsonvalley21______427 _403 _414 __1244 ___432 _568 _531__1531___2775 __000.010 8 Normal ____________474 _463 _446 __1393 ___411 _468 _502__1381 ___2774 __101.001.0.0 __ May 8 dmillz25 __________ 490 _419 _432 __1341 ___402 _488 _508__1398___2739 __100.101 9 Tom ______________473 _411 _405 __1269 ___368 _534 _545__1447___2736 __000.111 10 RodneyS __________ 420 _376 _340 __1136 ___439 _495 _637__1571___2707 __011.200..0..1 _ Mar 11 wxdude64 _________452 _403 _432 __1287 ___392 _509 _488__1389___2676 __120.000..1.0 12 Roger Smith _______ 408 _395 _288 __1091 ___336 _480 _541__1357___2448 __100.001.0.0_Aug 13 Damage in Tolland __ 353 _335 _326 __1014 ___390 _455 _477__1322___2336 __000.010..0.0 14 Neckbeard93*______ 316 _344 _295 __ 955 ___434 _470 _468__1372___2327 __111.000.1.0 15 so_whats_happening#409_327 _350 __1086 ___332 _462 _443 __1237___2323__200.110 .0.1 16 blazess556~________303 _303 _322 __ 928 ___322 _303 _293__ 918___ 1846 __001.000 17 H2Otown_WX~~____ 318 _300 _314 __932 ___202 _345 _345 __ 892___ 1824 __110.001..1.0 18 CCM %%__________ 136 _106_156 __ 398 ___146 _134 _126 __ 406____ 804 __000.100..0.1 19 Prestige Worldwide^ _111 _107_123 __ 341 ____25 _140 _118 __ 283____ 624 __110.010 20 Maxim^____________ 80 _ 85 _ 78 __ 243 ____ 50 _150 _142 __ 342____ 585 __100.001 22 rainsucks // ________ 70 _100 _ 92 __ 262 ____ 87 _ 86 _ 90 ___ 263____ 525__011100.1.1_Sep 22 JBG % _____________88 _ 64 _ 32 __ 184 ____ 72 _ 60 _ 88 ___220____ 404 23 IntenseBlizzard 2014// 62 _ 48 _ 58 __ 168 ____ 32 _ 64 _ 96 ___ 192____ 360 ________________________________________________________________________________ Updated annual scoring for western and all nine contests January - September 2017 FORECASTER _________DEN_PHX_SEA___TOTAL___Best scores___All nine ( = rank )__Months 1 Rjay _______________ 586 _616 _725___1927 __ 2 0 2 _ Jan,Jul__ 5048 ( = 1) __ FEB, APR,JUL 2 Consensus ___________607 _609 _700 ___1916 __ 2 0 0 ________ 4831 ( = 3) 2 wxallannj ___________ 554 _621 _674 ___ 1849 __ 0 1 1 __________4738 ( = 3) __ JUN 3 Roger Smith _________497 _561 _788 ___ 1846 __ 0 0 2__ Feb ____4294 (= 12) 4 RodneyS ____________588 _643 _612 ___ 1843 __ 2 1 0 ________ _4550 ( = 5) __ MAR 5 DonSutherland.1 _____ 585 _619 _624 ___ 1828 __ 2 1 0 __ Aug ___ 5012 ( = 2)__JAN, MAY,AUG 6 dmillz25 ____________ 552 _531 _704 ___ 1787 __ 2 0 1 _ Apr,Sep _4526 ( = 6) 7 BKViking ____________457 _540 _746 ___ 1743 __ 0 0 0 _________ 4628 ( = 4) __ SEP 8 so_whats_happening#_ 543 _591 _582 ___ 1716 __ 0 2 0 _ Mar,May _4039 (= 13) 9 wxdude64 ___________486 _580 _645 ___ 1711 __ 1 2 0 _________ 4387 (= 11) 10 Tom _______________ 467 _645 _598 ___1710 __ 0 0 0 _________ 4446 ( = 9) 11 hudsonvalley21 ______ 509 _578 _622 ___ 1709 __ 0 0 0 _________ 4484 ( = 7) 12 Damage in Tolland ____466 _521 _689 ___ 1676 __ 0 1 3 _ Jun _____4012 (= 14) 13 SD_________________ 522 _583 _510 ___ 1615 __ 0 0 0 __________4480 (= 8) 14 Stebo ______________ 489 _522 _593 ___ 1604 __ 1 0 1 __________4406 ( =10) 15 Normal _____________ 492 _574 _498 ___ 1564 __ 0 1 0 _________ 4338 (= 13) 15 Neckbeard93* _______637 _451 _363 ____1451 __ 3 1 0 _________3778 (= 15) 16 H20TownWx~~______ 462 _426 _487 ____1375 __ 0 0 1 _________ 3199 (= 16) 17 blazess556~ ________ 324 _353 _360 ____1037 __ 1 0 0 _________ 2883 (= 17) 18 Prestige Worldwide^__ 159 _223 _170 ____ 552 __ 0 1 0 _________ 1176 (= 18) 19 Maxim^ ____________ 161 _133 _176 ____ 440 __ 0 0 0 _________ 1055 (= 20) 20 CCM %% ___________ 114 _ 94 _156 ____ 364 __ 0 0 0 __________1168 (= 19) 21 IntenseBlizzard 2014//__ 98 _ 50 _ 88 _____236 __ 1 0 0 ___________ 596 (= 23) 22 JBG % _______________76 _ 84 __48 ____ 208 __ 0 1 0 ___________ 612 (= 22) 23 rainsucks // __________ 72 _ 96 _ 32 _____ 200 __ 0 1 0 ___________ 725 (= 21) __ SEP _______________________________________________________________________ NOTES: * one month missed (Jan). # one month missed (Apr), ~~ two months missed (July, August) ~ three months missed (July, August, September) ^ three months entered (Jan, Feb, Mar) %% two months entered (May, June) ... % one month entered (July) // one month entered (September) Reports on ranking with late penalties removed Jan late penalty for Blazess556 total of 2, (0,2) -- no change in rank March late penalty deductions: ... Rjay lost 41 (22,19), Damage lost 18 (13,5) and wxdude64 lost 14 (12,2). ... RJay currently 1st in the all nine, and he would remain 2nd in original six and is already first in western. _ Damage, see July _ wxdude64, see September. April late penalty deductions: ... H2O_Town__wx lost 51 (25,26) and Neckbeard93 lost 32 (14,18). ... H2O_Town__wx see September. Neckbeard would see no change in ranks in any contest. May late penalty deductions: ... BKViking lost 32 (20, 12). ... BKViking would move up one spot to 3rd in original six, and no changes to western or all nine rankings. June late penalty deductions: ... Stebo lost 39 (24,15). ... Stebo would move up one to 13th place in the western contest, otherwise unchanged in ranks. July late penalty deductions: ... Damage in Tolland lost 98 (75, 23). annual total now 116 (88, 28) ... Damage in Tolland would remain 13th place in the original six and would stay 12th in the western contest although moving in just behind several others in 8th to 11th places, and would move up one spot into 13th overall. September late penalty deductions: ... wxdude64 lost 11 (7,4) bringing the annual total to 25 (19,6), and H2OTown_wx lost 26 (15, 11) for an annual total of 77 (40, 37). ... wxdude64 would move up one spot in the western contest. ... H2OTown_wx would not change ranks. __ ranks for Consensus and Normal do not affect ranks of lower scoring forecasters. NEW THIS MONTH __ comparative scoring for Neckbeard93 and so_whats_happening ... These two regular participants missed one month each, but a different month with different ranges of scoring. Neckbeard93 missed January and so_whats_happening missed April. I assume for the sake of a better comparison that they scored the average of the other forecasters who participated in those months. Those averages were 365 in January (141 east and central, 224 western) and 469 for April (249, 220). Based on those numbers, the comparative totals (and improved ranks) for these two would be Neckbeard93 ____________2468 __ 1675 ___ 4143 _____ 11th __ 13th __ 13th so_whats_happening _____ 2572 __ 1936 ___ 4508 _____ 12th __ 1st ___ 7th (these ranks compare with time penalty totals and would fall slightly if compared with raw scores before time penalties ... also, there's no real way of estimating what these forecasters might have scored in the two months ... the January scores east-central were very low). For H2OTown__wx who missed July and August, if 800 and 400 points had been scored in the two sections, ranks would be 12th, 8th and 11th.
  21. Arecibo reports now updated to (edit) 1418z, peak gust 98 knots at 1354z (wind still NE to 1418z and still gusting to 96 knots). Degraded eye must be very close now, next hour of reports will probably capture it if the sensors survive the surge. Interesting to note that sustained winds increase from 72 knots at 10m to 78 knots at 20m. If that rate of increase was sustained to 100m (top of high rise buildings in San Juan) it would imply 126 knots at that level -- probably not quite that linear but over 100 knots likely.
  22. The Arecibo reports have updated for 1254z to 1318z and show a slight veering from NNE to NE, peak gust so far was at 1312z, 87 knots. Eye might come very close to this location soon.
  23. On subject of "weakening" at landfall, in these cases where a strong hurricane approaches a hilly or mountainous region, we have to understand that the forward half of the circulation is being squeezed up so there would be some tendency for the surface elements of the eyewall region to be lifted up near the coast, net effect being a pressure rise and wind decrease at sea level but no doubt the cat-5 winds continued on to make an elevated landfall. When Patricia came inland there was evidence that pressures had risen 30-40 mbs in the six hours to landfall but winds at some elevation inland (northwest portion of eyewall) were still representative of lower eye central pressures, so really this discussion is somewhat moot, it depends on where you want to measure the winds -- but officially it is the conditions at the sea level landfall point. Those may not be known for a while but from the radar I suspect there may be patchy cat-5 damage evidence in the right front quarter of the eyewall. There will probably be widespread cat-5 type blowdown on ridges (and unfortunately the radar was located in such a spot).
  24. Just for the historical record in this thread, CNN reporters in San Juan and on east coast just north of landfall have taken cover inside and their videos of outside conditions appear consistent with cat-3 or cat-4 conditions ... they can't stand up to report from even sheltered spots outside. Meanwhile, eye approaching Arecibo on northwest coast, winds steadily increasing to NNE 62 knots gusting 85 knots at 0048z. Observing site on shoreline reports every 6 min, don't think we get to see next ten reports until 0148z transmission (but watching for them). No pressure report from this data buoy.
  25. Rainfalls of 20-30 inches cannot be ruled out over higher ground in PR, based on observed rainfall rates over Guadeloupe last night. Similar intensity typhoons hitting south-central Taiwan have produced 8-12 inch per hour rates and 30-50 inch totals.