Roger Smith

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  1. First report on the anomalies and tracking future trends from the GFS ... _____________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA _11th _____ (anom 10d) _____ --1.7 _ --2.8 _ --0.2 __ --2.5 _--0.9 _+2.4 __ --0.3 _+4.4 _--0.6 _11th _____ (p anom 20d) ___ --2.0 _ --2.5 _ --1.5 __ --2.0 _ --1.5 __0.0 __ +0.5 _+4.0 _+1.0 _11th _____ (p anom 30d) ___ --1.5 _ --2.0 _ --1.0 __ --1.5 _ --1.0 _--0.5 __ +1.0 _+3.0 _+1.5 _______________________________ 11th _ The month has started out rather cold across the northern half of the U.S. (lower 48) and warmer than average closer to the southern border and the Gulf of Mexico. The projections above are based on the following: (days 1-10) continued rather cold in the east but this regime spreading further south to include ATL and IAH in below normal northeast wind patterns, west warming esp valid SEA and DEN, then days 11 to 16 and beyond for a month end projection just took normal values in east expecting a warming trend beyond the model run, and a +2.0 anomaly for western locations days 11-20. Checked for snow at contest sites, just a trace at DEN on 10th. Probably not quite time to call the contest yet (latest updates are in the April contest thread).
  2. It's no longer Greek to me, the simplified format makes scoring easy, especially if everyone scores zero. Hopefully we won't have a repeat of the astronomical distorted season last year, last time I checked, 59/8/-2. So this year once again just predict the count at the end of the year, Majors, all canes, all named storms (e.g. 18/10/5). We'll say June 10 for a deadline, may extend it if the season is slow to get going and/or entries have fallen short of a good number. Edit your entries without notice before June 10, won't be making any notes although I will read them.
  3. Table of forecasts for May, 2021 FORECASTER _____ _____ _____ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA __ bias (rel to con) RJay _________________________ +2.5 _ +2.5 _ +2.5 __ +2.5 _ +1.5 _ +2.0 __ +3.5 _ +2.5 __ 0.0 ___ +0.89 hudsonvalley21 ______________ +2.1 _ +2.0 _ +1.8 __ +1.9 _ +1.1 _ +2.6 __ +2.7 _ +2.0 _ +0.6 ___ +0.68 Tom _________________________ +1.8 _ +1.6 _ +1.2 __ +0.2 _ +1.2 _ +0.2 __ --0.5 _ +2.1 _ +0.8 ___ --0.41 so_whats_happening _ (-3%) __ +1.8 _ +1.1 _ +0.7 __ +1.2 _ +2.1 _ +1.8 __ +1.9 _ +2.3 _ +0.4 ___ +0.20 wxdude64 ____________________ +1.7 _ +1.5 _ +1.2 __ +0.6 _ +1.3 _ +1.1 __ +0.9 _ +1.6 _ --0.4 ___ --0.22 Scotty Lightning _______________+1.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.0 __ +1.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.0 __ +0.5 _ +1.5 __ 0.0 ___ --0.06 ___ Consensus ________________ +1.5 _ +1.2 _ +1.1 __ +0.7 _ +1.5 _ +1.2 __ +1.8 _ +2.1 _ +0.4 Roger Smith __________________ +1.4 _ +1.2 _ +1.2 __ +1.5 _ +1.7 _ +1.2 __ +1.9 _ +2.3 _ +0.8 ___ +0.19 BKViking _____________________ +1.4 _ +1.2 _ +1.1 __ +0.7 _ +1.5 _ +2.2 __ +2.6 _ +2.1 _ +0.8 ___ +0.26 wxallannj _____________________ +1.4 _ +1.2 _ +1.0 __ --0.5 _ +1.6 _ --0.5 __ --0.6 _ +2.2 _ +0.4 ___ --0.59 RodneyS ______________________ +1.4 _ +0.6 _ +0.4 __--0.1 _ +0.8 _ +0.7 __ --0.2 _ +0.2 _ +0.1 ___ --0.84 DonSutherland1 _______________ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.8 __ +0.5 _ +1.3 _ +1.0 __ +1.8 _ +1.0 _ --0.1 ___ --0.36 ___ Normal _____________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ --1.28 _________________________________________________________________ Color codes for warmest and coldest forecasts, Normal is colder than all forecasts for DCA, NYC, BOS, ATL, PHX. Bias is the average departure of your forecast from consensus. The bias of normal tells us that our average forecast is +1.28.
  4. <<<<<< ================ - - - - Annual Scoring for 2021 (Jan-Apr) - - - - ==================== >>>>>>>> High scores for nine locations shown in red, high scores for regions in bold. FORECASTER _________________DCA_NYC_BOS__east_ ORD_ATL_IAH__cent_ c/e ___ DEN_PHX_SEA__west___TOTALS DonSutherland1 ______________ 284 _288 _242 __814 __253 _292 _244 __789 __1603 __172 _278 _250 __700 ____ 2303 wxdude64 ____________________307 _313 _303 __923 __151 _212 _197 __560 __1483 __221 _295 _261 __ 777 ____ 2260 BKViking _____________________ 274 _310 _280 __864 __150 _274 _220 __644 __1508 __198 _276 _264 __738 ____ 2246 ___ Consensus _______________ 304 _312 _276 __892 __146 _250 _218 __614 __ 1506 __172 _286 _256 __714 ____ 2220 hudsonvalley21 _______________ 294 _288 _286 __868 __159_278 _228 __665 __1533 __144 _268 _274 __686 ____ 2219 Tom __________________________ 306 _333 _315 __954 __118 _221 _214 __553 __1507 __168 _293 _206 __667 ____ 2174 wxallannj ______________________244 _284 _232 __760 __122 _210 _240 __572 __1332 __188 _274 _296 __758 ____ 2090 so_whats_happening __________ 305 _268 _207 __780 __179 _315 _147 __641 __1421 __129 _299 _224 __652 ____ 2073 RodneyS ______________________ 232 _264 _240 __736 __159 _242 _192 __591 __1329 __176 _292 _270 __738 ____ 2067 Scotty Lightning _______________ 258 _276 _224 __758 __ 58 _274 _244 __576 __ 1334 __184 _280 _262 __ 726 ____ 2060 RJay __________________________ 274 _278 _254 __806 __188 _224 _180 __592 __ 1398 __140 _220 _202 __562 ____ 1960 ___ Normal ____________________ 208 _236 _214 __658 __ 50 _ 198 _212 __460 __ 1118 __234 _270 _250 __754 ____ 1872 Roger Smith ___________________ 198 _154 _ 84 __436 __151 _186 _236 __573 __ 1009 __134 _ 238 _234 __606 ____ 1615 ____________________________________________________________________________ Best scores for the locations and regions FORECASTER _______________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ east __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ cent __ c/e ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA __ west ___ Totals DonSutherland1 ______________ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 1 ______ 2 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 3 ____ 2 _____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 0 _____ 1 __ Jan wxdude64 ____________________ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 1 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 2 _____ 1 __ Mar (t) BKViking _____________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 1 __ Apr ___ Consensus _______________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ hudsonvalley21 _______________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 2 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ Tom __________________________ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ wxallannj _____________________ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 _____ 0 __ so_whats_happening _________ 2 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 2 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 1 __ Mar (t) RodneyS _____________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 1 _____ 1 __ Feb Scotty Lightning ______________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ RJay _________________________ 0 ____ 1 ____ 2 _____ 1 ______ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ ___ Normal ___________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 1 _____ 0 __ Roger Smith __________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- EXTREME FORECAST STANDINGS High score must go to either the extreme warm or cold forecast, or second most extreme, for a station to qualify. So far this year, 22 locations out of 36 have qualified, 4 in Jan, 5 in Feb, 7 in March and 6 in April. Of those, 14 were awarded to warmest forecasts, 8 to coldest. A loss in the standings represents a case where second most extreme forecast had the high score and the win for that month. Normal can only win along with a forecaster. There has been one shared win accounting for the 23 total wins (excl Normal). FORECASTER _________ Jan __ Feb __ Mar _ Apr ____ TOTAL to date DonSutherland1 _______ 2-0 __ 1-0 __ 2-0 __ 0-1 ____ 5-1 Roger Smith ___________ 2-1 __ 2-0 __ ---- __ 1-0 ____ 5-1 RJay ___________________ ---- __ ---- __ 2-0 __ 2-0 ____ 4-0 wxdude64 _____________ ---- __ 1-0 __ 2-0 __ ---- ____ 3-0 so_whats_happening ___---- __ 1-0 __ 2-0 __ ---- ____ 3-0 wxallannj ______________ ---- __ ---- __ ----- __ 3-0 ____ 3-0 Normal _________________---- __ ---- __ 2-0 __ ---- ____ 2-0 __________________________________________
  5. +1.4 _ +1.2 _ +1.2 ___ +1.5 _ +1.7 _ +1.2 ___ +1.9 _ +2.3 _ +0.8
  6. Final scoring for April 2021 _______(anomalies) _______ +1.4_+1.6_+2.7 ______ +3.0_+0.9_--0.9 __________ --1.2_+4.0_+2.7 FORECASTER _____________DCA_NYC_BOS_ east _ORD_ATL_IAH_ cent_ c/e __DEN_PHX_SEA__west___ TOTAL BKViking __________________ 92 _ 98 _ 70 __ 260 __ 88 _ 96 _ 54 __ 238 _ 498 __ 72 _ 42 _ 26 __ 140 ____ 638 wxdude64 _________________92 _100 _ 84 __ 276 __ 84 _ 84 _ 42 __ 210 _ 486 __ 60 _ 46 _ 32 __ 138 ____ 624 hudsonvalley21 ____________96 _ 94 _ 76 __ 266 __ 78 _ 96 _ 58 __ 232 _ 498 __ 36 _ 54 _ 36 __ 126 ____ 624 DonSutherland1 __________ 100 _ 98 _ 78 __ 276 __ 88 _ 86 _ 76 __ 250 _ 526 __ 22 _ 40 _ 28 __ 090 ____ 616 ___ Consensus _____________96 _ 94 _ 70 __ 260 __ 74 _ 98 _ 58 __ 230 _ 490 __ 36 _ 50 _ 28 __ 114 ____ 604 Tom ______________________ 98 _100 _ 78 __ 276 __ 74 _ 98 _ 62 __ 234 _ 510 __ 52 _ 38 _ 36 __ 126 _ 636 Tom _________ (-5%) ________93 _ 95 _ 74 __ 262 __ 70 _ 93 _ 59 __ 222 _ 484 __ 49 _ 36 _ 34 __ 119 ____ 603 Scotty Lightning ___________ 92 _ 88 _ 56 __ 236 __ 40 _ 98 _ 62 __ 200 _ 436 __ 36 _ 60 _ 66 __ 162 ____ 598 so_whats_happening ______ 88 _ 78 _ 46 __ 212 __ 76 _ 86 _ 40 __ 202 _ 414 __ 32 _ 76 _ 62 __ 170 ____ 584 wxallannj __________________64 _ 66 _ 38 __ 168 __ 30 _ 62 _100__ 192 _ 360 __ 86 _ 50 _ 86 __ 222 ____ 582 RJay ______________________ 78 _ 82 _ 96 __256 __ 90 _ 78 _ 22 __ 190 _ 446 __ 26 _ 50 _ 46 __ 122 ____ 568 ___ Normal ________________ 72 _ 68 _ 46 __ 186 __ 40 _ 82 _ 82 __ 204 _ 390 __ 76 _ 20 _ 46 __ 142 ____ 532 RodneyS __________________ 62 _ 64 _ 46 __ 172 __ 72 _ 88 _ 70 __ 232 _ 404 __ 02 _ 42 _ 14 __ 058 ____ 462 Roger Smith _______________76 _ 40 _ 00 __ 116 __ 40 _ 88 _ 22 __ 150 _ 266 __ 00 _ 80 _ 36 __ 116 ____ 382 __________________________________________________________________________ Extreme forecast report __ DCA +1.4 _ not an extreme forecast outcome. NYC +1.6 _ does not qualify (wxdude +1.6, fourth highest forecast) BOS +2.7 _ win for RJay (+2.5). ORD +3.0 _ win for RJay (+2.5), loss for Don Sutherland1 (+3.6). ATL +0.9 _ does not qualify. IAH --0.9 _ win for wxallannj (--0.9). DEN --1.2 _ win for wxallannj (--0.5). PHX +4.0 _ win for Roger Smith (+3.0). SEA +2.7 _ win for wxallannj (+2.0).
  7. Predict the temperature anomalies for these nine locations: DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA As far as I know the anomalies in use will continue to be 1981-2010. If this changes before the deadline I will get in touch with entrants. If it changes during the month with 1991-2020 to be used at end of month, I will try to find the differentials to apply and unless otherwise notified your forecasts will be assumed to be with reference to 1981-2010 normals. We will do the seasonal max forecasts this summer but I'll add that to June this year.
  8. Winter Snowfall contest 2020-2021 -- Table of entries and scoring _ updated for April snowfalls (at DTW, BUF, DEN, BTV). The red highlighted numbers are best forecasts at this stage, and those underlined are settled as such because all forecasts have already been passed or for ORD the max forecast is closer than the others although not yet passed. BOS is tied for best forecasts on either side (37.0, actual 38.5, 40.0). (Apr 23 update _ DEN added 12.6" BUF, DTW and BTV 3-5" amounts since last report, as shown. ) Note _ for current total departure, the first number is your total error at this point. The second value in brackets is the total of "non-reducible errors" for those stations that have passed your forecast. Your total departure can improve if more snow falls at stations where your forecast is higher than current values. It can only be increased by snow falling where your forecasts are now passed. All of us have been passed at NYC, DEN and SEA. All but one have been passed at ORD. Nobody has been passed yet at BTV (contest leader RJay would be first and has 1.9" to spare). Two forecasters have some left to use up at DTW, and BUF has only passed contest leader RJay and current third place wxallannj. FORECASTER ______ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV ___ current total dep snowfall to Apr 22___5.4 __ 38.6 _ 38.5 __48.8 _ 44.9 _ 77.0 __ 80.2 _ 12.9 _ 63.1 RJay ________________8.0 _ 20.0 _ 35.0 __ 40.0 _ 40.0 _ 75.0 __ 65.0 __ 4.0 _ 65.0 _____ 66.4 (61.9) __ consensus _______14.5 _ 28.2 _ 40.0 __ 40.0 _ 44.1 _ 87.0 __ 59.6 __ 5.1 _ 78.3 ______ 84.2 (48.4) wxdude64 _________ 13.2 _ 29.7 _ 45.9 __ 41.7 _ 44.2 _ 97.7 __ 73.2 __ 7.1 _ 84.1 _____ 86.4 (29.5) wxallannj __________ 21.0 _ 29.0 _ 37.0 __ 43.0 _ 47.0 _ 70.0 __ 51.0 __ 5.2 _ 77.0 _____ 92.4 (60.8) hudsonvalley21 ____ 16.3 _ 30.4 _ 44.5 __ 39.7 _ 48.2 _ 87.9 __ 61.1 __ 6.8 _ 83.2 _____ 93.7 (42.5) Don Sutherland1 ____ 6.0 _ 11.5 _ 28.0 __ 38.5 _ 44.0 _ 87.0 __ 57.5 __ 3.4 _ 72.9 _____101.4 (81.0) Tom _______________ 18.1 _ 29.8 _ 42.5 __ 43.3 _ 44.1 _102.5__ 59.6 __ 4.2 _ 78.3 _____101.8 (44.4) RodneyS ____________ 4.4 __ 8.5 _ 20.0 __ 31.6 _ 38.0 _ 78.9 __ 55.5 __ 5.1 _ 66.6 _____111.6 (106.2) Roger Smith _______ 14.5 _ 28.2 _ 60.5 __ 35.5 _ 39.9 _ 80.5 __ 55.5 _ 12.5 _ 90.5 ____ 115.8 (53.8) Scotty Lightning ____15.0 _ 25.0 _ 40.0 __ 50.0 _ 40.0 _125.0__ 75.0 __ 3.0 _ 90.0 ____ 120.8 (33.6) snowfall to Apr 22 ___5.4 __ 38.6 _ 38.5 ___48.8 _ 44.9 _ 77.0 __ 80.2 _ 12.9 _ 63.1 ___________________________________________________________________________________________________ Not much more snow is expected anywhere now, and since everyone has been passed by DEN, further snowfall there will have no impact on the results. The same is true of ORD since only Scotty Lightning can gain any ground and that would be a net of 3.0" before he also joins the rest of the field. The main potential for change would be snow at DTW which would assist third place wxallannj and hudsonvalley21, but they only have 2.1" and 3.3" to use, their net gain can be twice those amounts, meaning that both could pass wxdude64 but not RJay. (at around 2.6" hudsonvalley would pass wxallannj). More snow at BUF could give wxdude64 back his advantage over wxallannj but hudsonvalley21 would keep pace. It would take a fairly large dump of snow at BUF to overtake RJay who is already passed there. Unless that happens I think the contest is fairly well settled now.
  9. It would only be the last two maps in play for our contest implications, and those are annual averages, various months at various locations may show odd variations -- I expect most of the 1991-2020 normals to be in the range of 0.5 to 1.0 F deg higher than the ones we have been using, whether that's going to be significant to our estimates is probably near the edge of our presumed tolerances anyway. If it's possible I will post the differentials for each location with each monthly announcement once I know that the NWS will be giving us anomalies in the new time frame. Haven't heard anything new, still on the lookout for that info (Don seemed to think it could be June). In other news, I have updated the anomaly tracker (two posts back) and found some extra snow for the contest sites in recent days, so that table will come over here from March in an updated form soon. Provisional scoring will follow. I have a feeling our consensus was pretty close. My cold came a little too late to tip the scales.
  10. After two weeks these are the anomalies and projections ... ___________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 15th ___ (anom 14d) ______ +3.0 _ +3.5 _ +3.9 __ +8.3 _ +2.5 _ +0.8 __ +3.2 _ +8.9 _ --1.4 23rd ___ (anom 22d) ______ +1.0 _ +1.4 _ +2.9 __ +3.6 _ +0.5 _ --2.1 __ --3.2 _ +5.8 _ +2.8 15th ___ (p 21d) __________ +1.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 ___ +4.5 _ +1.0 __ 0.0 __ +1.0 _ +7.0 _ +1.5 15th ___ (p 30d) __________ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ___ +2.5 _ +1.0 __ 0.0 __ +1.5 _ +5.5 _ +1.5 23rd ___ (p 30d) __________ +1.5 _ +2.0 _ +2.5 ___ +3.0 _ +1.5 _ --1.0 __ --1.0 _ +4.0 _ +2.0 1st ___ (final anoms) _____ +1.4 _ +1.6 _ +2.7 ___ +3.0 _ +0.9 _ ---0.9 __ --1.2 _ +4.0 _ +2.7 ____________________ 15th _ A relatively warm start to the month in most regions, except the Pac NW which is warming rapidly towards a few days of near 80 F, while the eastern half of the country looks set to chill a bit anyway, with the longer term outlook returning closer to normal with variations, so the projections are based on a colder pattern for about a week to ten days then up and down near average in the east, sustained warmth in the west except that DEN gets into occasional cold northeast flows. No new snow at any of the contest sites so that report stays over in March for now. (note BOS anom estimated, 4.1 to 13th, +1 for 14th not added to CF6 report yet). 23rd _ A day late getting to the verification which is probably better than it looks because anomalies were changing fairly quickly in past two days. The projection to end of month is based on the idea that warm anomalies will outweigh cold by 2:1 as different sectors move through, so that the downward slide currently going on may continue for a couple more days then a reversal to much warmer temperatures will occur in the east, while DEN and IAH will get into very warm air soon and then turn a bit cooler. Except for DEN there have not been large changes in these projections since last week's effort. (note: these changes will need to be made to snowfall contest amounts _ DTW +3.6" (44.9") BUF +4.9" (77.0") BTV +3.5" (63.1") DEN +12.6" (80.2") The snowfall contest post in March will be updated and moved into this thread later today. 1st _ Posting final anomalies and adjusting scoring. Some final anomalies are close estimates based on 29th CF6 and 30th climate report. I am also checking against Apr 2020 CF6 to verify that normal values derived from anomalies quoted are same (i.e., 1981-2010). So far these are verified results: DCA same (both 56.8) NYC was -0.1 diff, 53.0 this year, 53.1 last year, BOS same (both 48.1) ORD was -0.1 diff, 48.9 this year, 49.0 last year (could be a rounding with NYC,ORD, or new normal is almost same as old one, in any case not significant to scoring really) ATL same (both 62.0) IAH same (both 69.5) DEN was -0.1 diff, 47.4 this year, 47.5 last year PHX same (both 72.7) SEA same (both 50.3) __ I think the 0.1 differences may be second decimal rounding results, these are obviously same normal sets as used a year ago. For example, let's say a month ends 59.23 and normal is 59.37, then the difference is -0.14 or -0.1 although from rounded values it would be -0.2. So I have convinced myself that we are still using 1981-2010 normal values for this month. __ all updated now __ scoring also updated (being double checked)
  11. In the net-weather thread I have recently edited in these new data and a few corrections: (a) March 2021 at 45.8 F (7.67 C) was t13 warmest with 1995, and Toronto (4.0 C) was t9 with 2020. (b) March 2021 at 3.41" was t60th driest with 1879. The trace of snowfall is tied with seventeen other years ranked t-4th. Only 1878, 1903 and 2012 recorded zero (no traces) snowfalls in March. (c) A new daily record of 82 F was set on March 26, 2021 (replaced 76 1922). (d) New high mins were set or tied on March 11th (52 broke 48 1898) and 26th (52 tied 1986). (e) An error was found in the max daily temps, Oct 15 should read 1956 rather than 1930 (84 F was okay). (f) The 65 F record for Dec 28 was later tied in 2008. (g) The 60 F record on Jan 24, 1967 was not color coded. Some of these additions or errors can be adjusted if you downloaded the excel file. The corrections and additions will appear in the next instalment due around June 2, 2021. I am working on a log of record and notable daily highs, which tracks the evolution of the final set through a set of "starter records" for 1869 to 1900, adjustments to 1930 (about half the starters are broken in that interval), then any other new records in chronological order to the eventual record high (if not already set), then any notable close calls and a complete log of warmest days in the recent past (1991-2021 incl). This is about three-quarters finished and is the reason why I found the errors noted above. Hopefully this work will establish that all the listed records are correct. I plan to do the same for record lows where the starter records are going to do a lot better in terms of surviving later challenges. If you downloaded the Toronto file, there was just one error found since then, a ranking error, the details are in the net-weather thread.
  12. Table of forecasts for April, 2021 FORECASTER _____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ___ bias RJay ______________________ +2.5 _ +2.5 _ +2.5 __ +3.5 _ +2.0 _ +3.0 ___ +2.5 _ +1.5 __ 0.0 ___ +1.08 BKViking __________________ +1.8 _ +1.7 _ +1.2 __ +2.4 _ +1.1 _ +1.4 ___+0.2 _ +1.1 _ --0.9 ___ --0.03 wxdude64 _________________+1.8 _ +1.6 _ +1.9 __ +2.2 _ +1.7 _ +2.0 ___ +0.8 _ +1.3 _ --0.6 ___ +0.27 Tom ___________ (-5%) ______+1.5 _ +1.6 _ +1.6 __ +1.7 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ___ +1.2 _ +0.9 _ --0.5 ___ --0.03 DonSutherland1 ___________ +1.4 _ +1.7 _ +1.6 __ +3.6 _ +0.2 _ +0.3 ___ +2.7 _ +1.0 _ --0.8 ___ +0.16 hudsonvalley21 ____________+1.2 _ +1.3 _ +1.5 __ +1.9 _ +0.7 _ +1.2 ___ +2.0 _ +1.7 _ --0.4 ___ +0.09 ___ Consensus _____________+1.2 _ +1.3 _ +1.2 __ +1.7 _ +1.0 _ +1.2 ___ +2.0 _ +1.5 _ --0.8 Scotty Lightning ___________ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 ___ 0.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ___ +2.0 _ +2.0 _ +1.0 ___ --0.09 so_whats_happening ______ +0.8 _ +0.5 __ 0.0 __ +1.8 _ +1.6 _ +2.1 ___ +2.2 _ +2.8 _ +0.8 ___ +0.26 Roger Smith _______________+0.2 _ --1.4 _ --2.7 ___ 0.0 _ +1.5 _ +3.0 ___ +4.5 _ +3.0 _ --0.5 ___ --0.30 ___ Normal _________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ --1.14 wxallannj _________________ --0.4 _ --0.1 _ --0.4 __ --0.5 _ --1.0 _ --0.9 ___ --0.5 _ +1.5 _ +2.0 ___ --1.18 RodneyS __________________--0.5 _ --0.2 __ 0.0 __ +1.6 _ +0.3 _ +0.6 ___ +3.7 _ +1.1 _ --1.6 ___ --0.70 __________________________________________________________________________ Color codes show warmest and coldest forecasts. All forecasts above normal at PHX. Bias is a measure of your average departure from consensus forecasts (which average 1.14 above normal). There may be different tendencies in the east and west in some cases.
  13. <<<<<< ================ - - - - Annual Scoring for 2021 (Jan-Mar) - - - - ==================== >>>>>>>> High scores for nine locations shown in red, high scores for regions in bold. FORECASTER _________________DCA_NYC_BOS__east_ ORD_ATL_IAH__cent_ c/e ___ DEN_PHX_SEA__west___TOTALS DonSutherland1 _______________184 _190 _164 __538 __165 _206 _168 __539 __1077 __150 _238 _222 __610 ____ 1687 wxdude64 _____________________215 _213 _219 __647 __ 67 _128 _155 __350 ___ 997 __161 _249 _229 __ 639 ____ 1636 ___ Consensus ________________ 208 _218 _206 __632 __ 72 _152 _160 __384 __ 1016 __136 _236 _228 __600 ____ 1616 BKViking ______________________ 182 _212 _210 __604 __ 62 _178 _166 __406 __1010 __126 _234 _236 __596 ____ 1606 RodneyS ______________________ 170 _200 _194 __564 __ 87 _152 _122 __361 ___ 925 __174 _250 _256 __680 ____ 1605 hudsonvalley21 ________________ 198 _194 _210 __602 __ 81 _182 _170 __433 __1035 __108 _214 _238 __560 ____ 1595 Tom ___________________________ 213 _238 _241 __692 __ 48 _128 _155 __331 __1023 __119 _257 _172 __548 ____ 1571 wxallannj ______________________ 180 _218 _194 __592 __ 92 _148 _140 __380 ___ 972 __102 _224 _210 __536 ____ 1508 so_whats_happening ___________217 _190 _161 __568 __103 _229 _107 __439 __1007 __ 97 _223 _162 __482 ____ 1489 Scotty Lightning _______________ 166 _188 _168 __522 __ 18 _176 _182 __376 ___ 898 __148 _220 _196 __ 564 ____ 1462 RJay __________________________ 196 _196 _158 __550 __ 98 _146 _158 __402 ___ 952 __114 _170 _156 __440 _____ 1392 ___ Normal _____________________136 _168 _168 __472 __ 10 _116 _130 __256 ___ 728 __158 _250 _204 __612 ____ 1340 Roger Smith ___________________ 122 _114 _ 84 __320 __111 _ 98 _214 __423 ___ 743 __134 _ 158 _196 __490 ____ 1233 ____________________________________________________________________________ Best scores for the locations and regions FORECASTER _______________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ east __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ cent __ c/e ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA __ west ___ Totals DonSutherland1 ______________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 2 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 2 ____ 1 _____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 0 _____ 1 __ Jan wxdude64 ____________________ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 2 _____ 1 __ Mar (t) ___ Consensus _______________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ BKViking _____________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ RodneyS _____________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 1 _____ 1 __ Feb hudsonvalley21 _______________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 2 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ Tom __________________________ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ wxallannj _____________________ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ so_whats_happening _________ 2 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 2 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 1 __ Mar (t) Scotty Lightning ______________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ RJay _________________________ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ ___ Normal ___________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 1 _____ 0 __ Roger Smith __________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- EXTREME FORECAST STANDINGS High score must go to either the extreme warm or cold forecast, or second most extreme, for a station to qualify. So far this year, 16 locations out of 27 have qualified, 4 in Jan, 5 in Feb and 7 in March. Of those, ten were awarded to warmest forecasts, six to coldest. A loss in the standings represents a case where second most extreme forecast had the high score and the win for that month. Normal can only win along with a forecaster. There has been one shared win accounting for the 17 total wins (excl Normal). FORECASTER _________ Jan __ Feb __ Mar _____ TOTAL to date DonSutherland1 _______ 2-0 __ 1-0 __ 2-0 _____ 5-0 Roger Smith ___________ 2-1 __ 2-0 __ ---- _____ 4-1 wxdude64 _____________ ---- __ 1-0 __ 2-0 _____ 3-0 so_whats_happening ___---- __ 1-0 __ 2-0 _____ 3-0 RJay ___________________ ---- __ ---- __ 2-0 _____ 2-0 Normal _________________---- __ ---- __ 2-0 _____ 2-0 __________________________________________
  14. +0.2 __ --1.4 __ --2.7 __ 0.0 __ +1.5 __ +3.0 ___ +4.5 __ +3.0 __ --0.5 Blocking in Atlantic may mean a lot of northerly flow east of about CLE to BWI, warm in the central plains but another cool trough west coast.
  15. Final scoring for March 2021 Final anomalies __________ +4.4 _ +3.3 _ +3.7 __ +6.3 _ +4.8 _ +1.7 ___ --1.0 _ --1.1 _ --0.9 ... small late penalties of 1 or 2 points incorporated where * or ** appear. For slightly larger late penalties on Tom, raw scores in orange, adjusted below in regular type. ORD was scored by "max 60" rule but ATL ended up with a raw score of 72 so by the rules it was scored by raw scores for all forecasts. The scores marked with ^ symbol are adjusted up from raw scores to progression (60, 54, 48 etc). Late penalties reduced some by 1 pts. FORECASTER _________________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent_ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA__west____TOTAL wxdude64 __________ (-1%) _____73*_ 79*_ 63*__215 __ 06^_ 26 _ 89*__119 __ 334 __ 75*_ 55*_ 95*___ 225 ____ 561 so_whats_happening (-2%) _____73*_ 78** 61*__212 __ 47^_ 71*_ 65*__183 __ 395 __ 43*_ 33*_ 90**__ 166 ____ 561 hudsonvalley21 ________________52 _ 68 _ 68 __ 188 __ 30^_ 52 _ 88 ___ 170 __ 358 __ 48 _ 44 _ 98 ____ 190 ____ 548 Tom ___________________________56 _ 74 _ 70 __ 200 __ 24^_ 40 _ 96 __ 160 __ 360 __ 60 _ 68 _ 78 ____ 206 _ 566 ____________________ (-5%) ______53 _ 70 _ 67 __ 190 __ 23 _ 38 _ 91 ___ 152 __ 342 __ 57 _ 65 _ 74 ____ 196 ____ 538 RJay __________________________ 62 _ 84 _ 76 __ 222 __ 42^_ 34 _ 94 ___170 __ 392 __ 30 _ 28 _ 78 ____ 136 ____ 528 ___ Consensus ________________ 50 _ 64 _ 52 __ 166 __ 30^_ 28 _ 94 ___ 152 __ 318 __ 58 _ 54 _ 98 ____ 210 ____ 528 DonSutherland 1 ______________ 42 _ 62 _ 50 __ 154 __ 60^_ 54 _ 72 __ 186 __ 340 __ 36 _ 72 _ 76 ____ 184 ____ 524 BKViking ______________________ 50 _ 62 _ 46 __ 158 __ 42^_ 26 _ 94 __ 162 __ 320 __ 58 _ 56 _ 78 ____ 192 ____ 512 wxallannj ______________________40 _ 64 _ 52 __ 156 __ 54^_ 28 _ 92 __ 174 __ 330 __ 36 _ 54 _ 82 ____ 172 ____ 502 Scotty Lightning _______________32 _ 54 _ 36 __ 122 __ 12^_ 24 _ 94 __ 130 __ 252 __ 60 _ 48 _ 82 ____ 190 ____ 442 ___ Normal ____________________12 _ 34 _ 26 __ 072 __ 10^_ 04 _ 66 ___ 080 __ 152 __ 80 _ 78 _ 82 ____ 240 ____ 392 RodneyS ______________________ 10 _ 30 _ 24 __ 064 __ 18^_ 04 _ 70 __ 092 __ 156 __ 62 _ 66 _ 92 ____ 220 ____ 376 Roger Smith ___________________00 _ 06 _ 00 __ 006 __ 00 _ 00 _ 56 ___ 056 __ 058 __ 60 _ 54 _ 94 ____ 208 ____ 266 __________________________________________________________________________________________________________ EXTREME FORECAST REPORT Five locations saw a high score going to warmest forecast(s) and two for the coldest. DCA had a tie between so_whats_happening and wxdude64 who both predicted +3.1 (final +4.4). NYC and BOS both go to RJay with +2.5 forecasts (NYC prov +3.5, BOS final +3.7). ORD heads to DonSutherland1 (+3.0) (actual +6.3) and ATL to so_whats_happening with +3.2 (actual +4.8). DEN will be a win for wxdude64 (-2.2) as well as Normal (actual -1.0). PHX will be a win for DonSutherland1 with +0.3 as well as Normal, with outcome -1.1. IAH (+1.7) and SEA (-0.9) are out of the running with consensus closer than the extreme forecasts. So in total that's two wins each for Normal, RJay, DonSutherland1, wxdude64 and and so_whats_happening. ______________________________________________ Annual update has been posted and is now also confirmed. Looks very competitive after March. We had a tie for scoring lead in March, congrats to wxdude64 and so_whats_happening who overcame slight late penalties; Tom actually had a higher score before his somewhat larger late penalty reduced the outcome to fourth place.
  16. Four seasons contest results -- winter 2020-21 Belated report on the first instalment of the Four Seasons contest report. Points awarded for total scores Dec 2020 to Feb 2021. Highest total gets ten points and second receives seven, from there down to two points for seventh and one point for anyone who entered 2/3 contests or more. FORECASTER _____________ TOTAL SCORE DEC 2020 + JAN-FEB 2021 ___ POINTS DonSutherland1 ___________ 730 + 1163 = 1893 _________________________ 10 RodneyS __________________ 616 + 1229 = 1845 __________________________ 7 ___ Consensus ____________ 689 + 1088 = 1777 __________________________ 6 hudsonvalley21 ___________ 716 + 1047 = 1763 __________________________ 6 BKViking __________________ 668 + 1094 = 1762 __________________________5 Tom ______________________ 668 + 1033 = 1701 ___________________________4 wxallannj _________________ 668 + 1006 = 1674 ___________________________ 3 Scotty Lightning __________ 586 + 1020 = 1606 ____________________________2 wxdude64 ________________ 500 + 1075 = 1575 ___________________________ 1 RJay ______________________ 686 + 864 = 1550 ____________________________ 1 Roger Smith _______________580 + 959 = 1539 ____________________________ 1 ___ Normal ________________ 524 + 950 = 1474 ____________________________ 1 so_whats_happening ______ dnp + 928 = 928 ____ (2/3) ___________________ 1 ______________________________________________________________ Points for consensus and Normal do not alter the progression of points for forecasters.
  17. Predict the April temp anomalies (F deg rel to 1981-2010 still) for DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA The usual late penalties apply.
  18. The Toronto file from the research is now also available on the same Netweather link (see above). This one resembles the NYC file but has additional features such as the tracking of record highs and lows from "starter" extremes in the period 1840-70, to the final values (which were usually later than that). Some days have had as many as a dozen records set from the starter record to the present time. Others did one change and that was it, a few managed to hold on to their original starter records (Aug 24, 1854 at 100 F for example). This is the second longest climate data base ever created (I believe) after the CET/EWP which go back into the 17th and 18th centuries. That is not to say that the Toronto data are the second oldest known, I have access to several data bases that are older but not continuous from then to now. Many of the daily temperature extremes at Toronto are in the same record spells that set NYC records. Sometimes they are one or two days earlier. Both locations had their highest temperature of record on July 9, 1936. In the case of Toronto that was one of three consecutive days but the mean daily temperature was higher on the 9th. Once again, I'd like to post these data bases here but they are too large to upload to American Weather Forum. My plan is to create a website with the data bases and other info so that eventually I won't be totally dependent on Net-weather for hosting them.
  19. Winter Snowfall contest 2020-2021 -- Table of entries _ updated after some heavy snowfall at DEN and a few other small additions in March _ the table is now set by ranked total departures to date. The second value in brackets represents errors that can only increase (locations with more snow than forecast). The red highlighted numbers are best forecasts at this stage, and those underlined are settled as such because all forecasts have already been passed. BOS is tied for best forecasts on either side (37.0, actual 38.5, 40.0). (Mar 31 update _ Only DEN added any snow since last report, as shown. ) FORECASTER ______ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV ___ current total dep snowfall to Mar 31___5.4 __ 38.6 _ 38.5 ___48.8 _ 41.3 _ 72.1 __ 67.6 _ 12.9 _ 59.5 RJay ________________8.0 _ 20.0 _ 35.0 __ 40.0 _ 40.0 _ 75.0 __ 65.0 __ 4.0 _ 65.0 _____ 54.7 (43.7) __ consensus _______14.5 _ 28.2 _ 40.0 __ 40.0 _ 44.1 _ 87.0 __ 59.6 __ 5.1 _ 78.3 ______ 82.1 (35.0) wxallannj __________ 21.0 _ 29.0 _ 37.0 __ 43.0 _ 47.0 _ 70.0 __ 51.0 __ 5.2 _ 77.0 _____ 82.1 (43.3) hudsonvalley21 ____ 16.3 _ 30.4 _ 44.5 __ 39.7 _ 48.2 _ 87.9 __ 61.1 __ 6.8 _ 83.2 _____ 93.2 (29.9) wxdude64 _________ 13.2 _ 29.7 _ 45.9 __ 41.7 _ 44.2 _ 97.7 __ 73.2 __ 7.1 _ 84.1 _____ 95.7 (21.8) Don Sutherland1 ____ 6.0 _ 11.5 _ 28.0 __ 38.5 _ 44.0 _ 87.0 __ 57.5 __ 3.4 _ 72.9 _____ 99.1 (67.5) Tom _______________ 18.1 _ 29.8 _ 42.5 __ 43.3 _ 44.1 _102.5__ 59.6 __ 4.2 _ 78.3 _____ 99.7 (31.0) RodneyS ____________ 4.4 __ 8.5 _ 20.0 __ 31.6 _ 38.0 _ 78.9 __ 55.5 __ 5.1 _ 66.6 _____103.9 (90.0) Roger Smith _______ 14.5 _ 28.2 _ 60.5 __ 35.5 _ 39.9 _ 80.5 __ 55.5 _ 12.5 _ 90.5 ____ 108.1 (37.6) Scotty Lightning ____15.0 _ 25.0 _ 40.0 __ 50.0 _ 40.0 _125.0__ 75.0 __ 3.0 _ 90.0 ____ 127.9 (24.8) snowfall to Mar 28 ___5.4 __ 38.6 _ 38.5 ___48.8 _ 41.3 _ 72.1 __ 67.6 _ 12.9 _ 59.5 ___________________________________________________________________________________________________ Mar 17 _ RJay and wxallannj can only separate with snow at DCA (more than 8.0" or 2.6" more than now), BUF (up to 2.9" more can be an advantage to RJay, after that no differential), DET (up to 5.7" more can be an advantage for wxallannj) and DEN (up to 4.2" more can help RJay). Another 5.5" at BTV will be needed before wxallannj can gain an advantage there. Other locations are already out of play. Others have a mathematical route to a win in the contest too. It is quite likely that 4.2" more would fall at DEN so that would leave RJay 8.4" further ahead than now (19.0" advantage at present, would be 27.4"). Also, the 2.9" available to RJay at BUF seems likely, so that gives another 5.8" boost to the differential (33.2"). Wxallannj would need to find 16.6" of advantages at his prospects (DCA > 8.0, DTW 5.7 available, and any amounts greater than 5.5" at BTV. This probably means overall it's quite close at the top. Mar 29 _ As to the above, more than 4.2" has been added at DEN which does leave RJay further ahead. No other changes yet. Only wxdude64 and Scotty L have any further gains to make at DEN and twice the difference on those gains would not bring them within striking distance of the lead so they would need some other help to move up further. April snowfalls at BTV look to be their best hope. Mar 31 _ Another 1.5" added at DEN on 30th. NOTE: UPDATED FOR APRIL SNOWFALLS in APRIL CONTEST THREAD (Apr 23)
  20. Re the NYC data base, once again thanks to Don Sutherland for providing the basic data (columns A to E are his original file except that I've added recent months from CF6 official data) and everything else is work I've done to support the research thread on Netweather. I plan to post all that on a stand-alone website just so it isn't at the mercy of another host, going forward. Unfortunately it is too big to upload to American Weather Forum. It is however downloadable from Netweather if you follow the link in the previous post. As stated above, this excel file will be posted every three months after each meteorological season comes to an end, so if you're interested in the file, you won't necessarily have to update it yourself. Note that site navigation on the excel file is provided in a block located in columns GD to GR and rows 1 to 21 (this location is repeated in the intro panel upper left corner). If you spot any errors (most likely to be color code omissions as the data base feeds directly into the tables) let me know and they will be fixed for the next edition. NEW YORK CITY (NYC) DATA BASE 1869 to end of FEB 2021 with record values and averages in tables ... ... available at this time only from Net-weather forum due to size issues, proceed to research thread as noted in previous post, link to the file is in the last post made by me in the thread on page 3. (it may not remain the last post until next upload)
  21. Okay, then, here are the anomalies we have run up so far as the weather turns quite warm in many areas the past few days after a cold start to the month ... _________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 11th ____ (10d anom) ___ +0.8 _ --1.5 _ --1.8 __ +8.2 _ +1.4 _ --0.5 ___ +7.8 _ +3.4 __ 0.0 21st ____ (20d anom) ___ +2.5 _ --0.1 _ +0.6 __ +5.9 _ +3.7 _ +1.9 ___ +0.3 _ --0.8 _--0.5 29th ____ (28d anom) ___ +4.4 _ +3.2 _ +3.3 __ +6.4 _ +5.5 _ +1.8 ___ --0.7 _ --1.6 _--0.7 11th ____ (p20d anom) __--1.5 _ --2.5 _ --3.5 __ +2.0 _ --0.5 __ 0.0 ___ +2.0 _ +1.5 __ 0.0 11th ____ (p27d anom) __--1.0 _ --2.0 _ --3.0 __ +1.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ +1.0 _ +1.0 __ 0.0 21st ____ (p31d anom) __ +2.0 _ +0.5 _ +1.0 __ +3.5 _ +2.5 _ +1.5 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 _ --0.5 29th ____ (p31d anom) __ +4.5 _ +3.5 _ +3.5 __ +6.0 _ +6.0 _ +2.0 ___ --1.0 _ --1.5 _ --0.5 1st Apr __ (final anoms) _ +4.4 _ +3.3 _ +3.7 __ +6.3 _ +4.8 _ +1.7 ___ --1.0 _ --1.1 _ --0.9 11th _ Much colder again within a day or two, especially over New England but a fairly extensive spread of colder air through mid-month; the pattern from day 11 to 16 looks relatively close to average. The projections to end of the month are based on a generally near normal regime starting out with small positive anomalies and moving to somewhat larger negative anomalies before the month ends. I will wait a few days and adjust the provisionals around the 24th then post some estimated scoring for later corrections. Snowfall contest update will be posted in this thread around mid-month, not much has changed since Feb 28 update in the last thread. 21st _ After a few very warm days, colder weather did arrive but the overall change to anomalies was in some cases more upward than downward since the previous report. 29th _ It has stayed quite warm in the east; revised projections will make a reliable basis for provisional scoring (to follow). Snowfall contest updated, only DEN has seen snow since last update. 31st _ 1st Apr __ Final anomalies are now all posted and scoring will soon be complete.
  22. I have been doing some extensive research on historical weather trends at NYC and Toronto which both have long periods of record, and any other data from New England that extends back further such as Caswell's Providence RI journal (1831 to 1860). In the course of that, I was alerted to the existence of a daily data base and the official monthly temperature website for NYC Central Park. At some point soon, I can share that data base as expanded to show daily records and other derived products. In the meantime, it was made official (on their website publication) that 2020 had the same average as 2012 (57.3 F) to tie for warmest year on record. Three other years were 0.1 cooler. As you are no doubt aware November 2020 did the heavy lifting by finishing first as well, December could have pushed the year over the top but the mid-month snowstorm probably cut into the mean just enough to prevent that. Will provide a link to my deluxe data file soon, just in final edit now. Thanks to Don Sutherland who helped me acquire the data and alerted me to the website in question. We recently found a typo in that and queried it (May 2005) resulting in an edit on their part, what was 59.8 now reads 58.9 which makes that month even colder in the bottom portions of the May rankings. I could use some advice with one issue. For Toronto's data, I assumed an urban heat island began around 1881 and increased by 0.1 C deg a decade to about 1980 and then stabilized at that figure as urban heat islands tend to grow only marginally for very large cities, and in this day and age some improvements to air quality and the midtown parkland setting there probably counter any further heat island growth. What would informed readers estimate to be the magnitude of the NYC heat island effect? I went with the same progression in my first draft, except that I assumed also that NYC having started to grow large before Toronto, already had 0.3 C heat island in 1869 when the weather station began recording, so that by applying the same corrections as Toronto, I am implying a heat island of 1.4 and saying that my adjusted figures are for comparison to a small heat island situation (0.3) rather than no heat island as the Toronto data come out. Or in other words, these adjusted figures would, if compared to each other, be like a comparison of rural Toronto to slightly urban New York City at each point. On my current schedule of adjustments, I think 1949 and also 1953 come out a bit ahead of 2012 and 2020 (which stay equal) since we only subtract 0.7 C or about 1.2 F from its mean annual temperature for comparison. 1990,91,98 and 2016 all come in just behind these tied for fifth warmest in the UHI-adjusted ranks. (any years tied after 1981 remain tied after adjustments). This is an issue I would like to address, has the heat island perhaps continued to increase slightly, or even decrease slightly since 1981? So am I in the ballpark of a good adjustment by saying 0.1 C for 1881-90, 0.2 for 1891-1900, 0.3 for 1901-1910, etc, ... 0.7 for 1941-50, 0.8 for 1951-60, 0.9 for 1961-70 and 1.0 for 1971-80, then finally 1.1 for all years 1981 onward? Is there any case to be made for any decrease? I have also considered a more fine tuned approach where I reduce dry months more than wet months (cloud cover differences). That may come in a stage two and it would need to be done for both locations. I assumed that 19th century heat islands were weak because of the lack of vehicles and home heating, but not zero because of albedo changes mainly. I have seen research into growth of heat islands and know how they diminish in their growth inverse-exponentially. Also for Toronto I had the benefit of some reasonably close rural stations with long periods of records to calibrate my estimates. For NYC the entire area is so urbanized that I find it difficult to estimate what the mean temperature would be at a Central Park like setting with no city around it (something that hasn't existed since about 1750 I suppose). Any thoughts on this welcome. The long term goal of this project is to provide a climate record similar to the CET (Central England Temperature) series in which they claim to have factored out the urban effect although the three locations they use are fairly rural anyway. Toronto at 1.1 C is fairly conservative, obviously it's more like 5-8 C deg on a clear, calm night especially in winter, but the adjustment needs to be scaled to all weather types and on a cloudy, windy day the urban heat island there is probably no bigger than 0.5 C, if that. This is where the study resides at present time, on the UK equivalent forum "Net-weather" https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/93113-toronto-180-a-north-american-data-base-of-180-years-now-includes-nyc-1869-2020/page/2/ You'll see tables comparing NYC and Toronto using the assumptions listed above, but these could always be changed in a later version.
  23. Thanks to all who responded, I've heard back from most by private message plus the two responses above. So the plan will be to continue on with whatever normal value is announced for use, I do anticipate a change to 1991-2020 at some point later this year, until the NWS informs us that they are making the change, the 1981-2010 normals will be used (a) to set their end of month anomalies in reporting products such as CF6, and (b) by me when scoring the contest. The only problem may come in the month when a change occurs, if they make the change during the month and I've already taken in your forecasts on the assumption they would be relative to 1981-2010. If that happens, I will deal with it in consultation with you, some may feel that if they had known the end of month would be against 1991-2020 but they predicted vs 1981-2010, it would require an adjustment. That partly depends on what month and what the differentials are. And it may take some digging to find the old and the new normal values so we know what we are working with. So thanks for the input, I was already thinking we might need to address this some month around May or June, whenever they do bring these new normals into operation.
  24. Just for general interest,, this is what I calculate to be the differential between 1981-2010 and 1991-2020 NYC averages. The numbers are to be read as (1991-2020) minus (1981-2010) for each month. This is not official and is based on their official website monthly values with my excel program doing the average in each case. JAN __ FEB __ MAR __ APR __ MAY __ JUN __ JUL __ AUG __ SEP __ OCT __ NOV __ DEC ____ YEAR 0.5 ___ 0.0 ___--0.2 ___ 0.1 ___ 0.3 ___ 0.1 ___ 0.5 ___ 0.3 ___ 0.7 ___ 0.5 ___ --0.2 ___ 1.0 _____ 0.3 March and November will drop slightly, the other ten months will go up by various amounts, December showing the largest increase, followed by September. These would be the new normals according to my way of calculating which is to take an average of all daily highs and lows, the normals may come from averages of monthly means and be very slightly different from these. I show these to two decimals partly to indicate where the official numbers are perhaps more likely to come out differently. 33.55 _ 35.73 _ 42.71 _ 53.52 _ 63.05 _ 71.92 _ 77.37 _ 75.98 _ 69.08 _ 57.81 _ 47.87 _ 38.91 ___ 55.62 The Jan number rounds down to 33.5 and the May number rounds upward to 63.1 (based on third decimals not shown here).
  25. I hadn't mentally addressed that question, have been assuming we would all know in advance when they were going to switch the reference point and make our forecasts based on that expectation? I will ask each regular entrant what they think of the situation by private message and get back to the group on that. I was told by Don S that the 1991-2020 normals won't be "ratified" before May of this year so it seems unlikely to me that they would put them into use before that. Also I assume people made their forecasts so far with reference to 1981-2010 averages. I will ask if anyone has made any forecasts on any other assumption. The 1991-2020 normals are probably going to be only 0.2 to 0.5 higher, I already worked out NYC on a file I am developing and the results are in that range generally. If others read this and want to comment, go ahead but look for a message in your in-box. The policy I would most likely go with is to use whatever normal they use whether people know in advance or not, if the differentials are fairly small I can't see where it would greatly influence the outcome. If we go retroactive then the main beneficiary would be anyone who went a bit warmer than consensus on all locations, their errors might then shrink down by 6-10 points a station as the new normals would be closer to their forecasts than the current ones (in most cases). Unless I hear a different consensus from the group, we would use the anomaly reported on the 1st of the next month on the relevant CF6 monthly summaries, and if they change those anomalies later, so be it, the first reported value would be "contest official." There is no absolute guarantee that the CF6 has the final actuals either, I seem to remember one occasion when they sent a memo around saying that Boston actuals had been changed several weeks after the month had ended for some reason, and we didn't go back in and change the scores for that month although it probably changed the outcome. Maybe we should have done so? I might not have been scoring then, this was perhaps back around 2009. If you want to suggest any possible approaches to this, be my guest. I started scoring this contest around 2011 and I don't remember if we had a similar situation at the end of 1971-2000 normals or not. The material is lost over on defunct Eastern Weather Forum now, including the trainwreck of the March 2012 contest where NYC ran +12 or something like that. Even the 2190-2220 normals would have failed to save anyone there.