Jump to content

Roger Smith

Members
  • Content count

    2,644
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by Roger Smith

  1. Provisional scoring for February 2018 Scoring is based on provisional end of month anomalies posted and updated in the previous post. For five of the first six stations, it appears likely that no raw scores of 60+ will occur, and these will be scored by rule 3 (see post 1, January) which sets a schedule of scores from 60 down to zero, while ORD and the three western stations have some high scores allowing the regular scoring to proceed. As a result, you will likely only see changes to scores for ORD, DEN, PHX and SEA from now to end of the month, the other five appear set. Late penalties apply to the set scores as well as to those that are directly calculated. Set scores for Normal and Consensus can be adjusted to fit the sequence and do not change the sequence of scores for actual forecasters. The sequence is 60, 55, 50, 45, 40, 36, 33, 30, 27, 24, 21, 18, 16, 14, 12, 10, 8, 6, 4, 2, 0 for 21 forecasts. All raw scores before late penalties applied are in orange type now and italics, only the second line of scoring counts for these forecasters. The eastern plus central (e/c) subtotals are for information only, they don't affect the overall totals. High scores for locations in red, for groups of three in bold. Forecaster ______ Region___DCA_NYC_BOS___east___ORD_ATL_IAH___cent__c/e___DEN_PHX_SEA__west__TOTAL so_whats_happening PA/NY __55 _ 55 _ 40 ___ 150 ___ 92 _ 60 _ 60 ___ 212_ 362 ___ 10 _ 86 _44 _ 140 _________ (-4%) __________ 53 _ 53 _ 38 ___ 144 ___ 88 _ 58 _ 58 ___204__348 __ 10 _ 83 _ 42 __ 135 ___ 483 Scotty Lightning ___ PHL ____ 45 _ 45 _ 50 ___ 140 ___ 60 _ 45 _ 27 ___ 132 __272 __ 50 _100_ 60 __ 210 ___ 482 ___Normal _______ -- -- ____ 42 _ 45 _ 53 ___ 140 ___ 80 _ 33 _ 05 ___ 118 __258 __ 60 _ 80 _ 60 __ 200 ___ 458 Mercurial ________C + W ___ 50 _ 50 _ 55 ___ 155 ___ 72 _ 50 _ 50 ___ 172 __327 __ 20 _ 72 _ 10 __ 102 ___ 429 Orangeburgwx _____ SE ____ 04 _ 21 _ 45 ___ 070 ___ 22 _ 10 _ 27 ___ 059 __ 129 __86 _ 88 _ 90 __ 264___ 393 hudsonvalley21 ___ NYC ____ 40 _ 40 _ 36 ___ 116 ___ 42 _ 55 _ 50 ___ 147 __263 __ 26 _ 64 _ 24 __ 114 ___ 377 Roger Smith _____ C + W ___ 60 _ 60 _ 60 ___ 180 ___ 60 _ 06 _08 ___ 074 __254 __ 20 _ 30 _ 00 __ 050 ___ 304 Stebo __________ GL/OV ___ 18 _ 14 _ 08 ___ 040 ___ 56 _ 24 _ 14 ___ 094 __ 134__ 36 _ 90 _ 36 __ 162 ___ 296 mappy __________ M A ____ 21 _ 36 _ 24 ___ 081 ___ 48 _ 27 _ 40 ___ 115_196 ___ 20 _ 60 _ 30 _ 110 _________ (-4%) __________20 _ 35 _ 23 ___ 078 ___ 46 _ 26 _ 38 ___ 110 __188 __ 19 _ 58 _ 29 __ 106 ___ 294 BKViking _________NYC ____30 _ 33 _ 36 ___ 099 ___ 38 _ 24 _ 06 ___ 068 __167___ 30 _ 64 _ 30 _ 124 __________ (-2%) _________29 _ 32 _ 35 ___ 096 ___ 37 _ 24 _ 06 ___ 067 __163 __ 29 _ 63 _ 29 __ 121 ___ 284 ___ Consensus ___ -- -- _____21 _ 21 _ 24 ___ 066 ___ 40 _ 24 _ 27 ___ 091 __ 157 __ 20 _ 60 _ 24 __ 104 ___ 261 H2O ____________ M A ____ 33 _ 30 _ 14 ___ 077 ___ 40 _ 30 _ 27 ___ 097_174 ___ 10 _ 60 _ 24 _ 094 _________ (-4%) __________32 _ 29 _ 13 ___ 074 ___ 38 _ 29 _ 26 ___ 093 __167__ 10 _ 58 _ 23 __ 091 ___ 258 Tom ____________ PHL ____ 06 _ 08 _ 12 ___ 026 ___ 00 _ 04 _ 04 ___ 008 __ 034 __78 _ 90 _ 46 __ 214 ___ 248 RJay ____________ NYC ____ 16 _ 24 _ 27 ___ 067 ___ 50 _ 24 _ 27 ___ 101 __ 168 __00 _ 40 _ 20 __ 060 ___ 228 DonSutherland.1 __ NYC ____ 36 _ 30 _ 24 ___ 090 ___ 20 _ 40 _ 55 ___ 115 __205 __ 00 _ 00 _ 00 __ 000 ___ 205 H2OTown_WX____ N E _____ 08 _ 04 _ 08 ___ 020 ___ 30 _ 02 _ 02 ___ 034 __ 054 __26 _ 90 _ 34 __ 150 ___ 204 wxallannj ________ NYC ____ 16 _ 18 _ 30 ___ 064 ___ 32 _ 14 _ 14 ___ 060 __ 124 __12 _ 50 _ 16 __ 078 ___ 202 dmillz25 _________ NYC ____30 _ 16 _ 10 ___ 056 ___ 30 _ 12 _ 40 ___ 082_138 ___ 00 _ 60 _ 10 _ 070 __________ (-4%) _________29 _ 15 _ 10 ___ 054 ___ 29 _ 12 _ 38 ___ 079 __133 __ 00 _ 58 _ 10 __ 068 ___ 201 wxdude64 _______ M A ____ 12 _ 10 _ 18 ___ 040 ___ 22 _ 24 _ 10 ___ 056 __ 096 __24 _ 52 _ 24 __ 100 ___ 196 jaxjagman _______ TNV ____10 _ 08 _ 04 ___ 022 ___ 44 _ 36 _ 30 ___ 110 __ 132 __06 _ 26 _ 00 __ 032 ___ 164 CPcantmeasuresnow NYC ___ 02 _ 00 _ 00 ___ 002 ___ 40 _ 08 _ 40 ___ 088 __ 090 __00 _ 50 _ 18 __ 068 ___ 158 nrg Jeff _________ TNV ____ 30 _ 14 _ 16 ___ 060 ___ 00 _ 33 _ 27 ___ 060 __120 __ 00 _ 20 _ 00 __ 020 ___ 140 RodneyS _________ M A ____00 _ 02 _ 02 ___ 004 ___ 00 _ 00 _ 02 ___ 002 __ 006 __08 _ 00 _ 00 __ 008 ___ 014 ____________________________________________________________________________________ Regional Rumble Provisional Scoring Feb 2018 Each regional subforum scores by highest totals for each of three regions. REGION ________________ Eastern __ Central ___ Western _____ TOTAL PHL ______________________ 140 _____ 132 _____ 214 ________ 486 PA / NY ___________________ 144 _____ 204 _____ 135 ________ 483 ___Normal ________________ 140 _____ 118 _____ 200 ________ 458 Central + Western __________ 180 _____ 172 _____ 102 ________ 454 Southeast _________________ 070 _____ 059 _____ 264 ________ 393 NYC ______________________116 _____ 147 _____ 121 ________ 384 Great Lakes Ohio valley ______ 040 _____ 094 _____ 162 ________ 296 Mid Atlantic ________________078 _____ 110 _____ 106 ________ 294 ___ Consensus _____________066 _____ 091 _____ 104 ________ 261 New England ______________ 020 _____ 034 _____ 150 ________ 204 TN Valley _________________ 060 _____ 110 _____ 032 ________ 202
  2. Welcome back to the temperature forecast contest, February 2018 edition ... the Regional Rumble got off to a great start with all of our regional subforums having at least one entrant, provisional scoring can be seen in the January thread, and this will be finalized on February 1st. For this month, as always, the forecast challenge is to predict the temperature anomalies (F deg) for these nine locations: DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA The contest entry deadline (no late penalties) will be Feb. 1st at 06z with this year's penalty timetable relaxed to 1% per 4h late through 18z Feb. 2nd, then 1% per hour from then on. If you are the sole entrant for your regional forum, try to get at least one partner from your regional banter thread perhaps. I am going to update the regional forum invitations today. Good luck!
  3. What's your favorite <2" snow event?

    My first date with that French nanny.
  4. February Mid/Long Range Discussion 2

    Massive blocking situation setting up over Europe and most of the Atlantic basin, March could take on some of the characteristics of Feb 2010 but with the different look of the Pacific might be a case of take one storm and run. This is my probability forecast for further snowfall in the region: zero to 3" only __ 20% 3" to 8" ____ 30% 8" to 15" ___ 30% 15" to 22" __ 19% 22" or more __ 1% This makes 8" the over-under forecast (would verify at IAD-BWI mean, DCA implied 5" RIC implied 3", best local implied 12")
  5. Mid-Atlantic winter 2017-18 snowfall contest

    I have a great tie-breaker, just no chance of a tie.
  6. Mid-Atlantic winter 2017-18 snowfall contest

    By the way, SBY now at 16.4" which is above all but perhaps four forecasts. I just skimmed through the forecasts, looks to me like there's a group of about five who would like to see one moderate snow event (in March no doubt) that largely avoids RIC. I didn't spot anybody who needs like 2-3" top ups to succeed, and then there's the rest of us looking for a big one (or two).
  7. February 8th-11th Overrunning Event

    Without any local preference, I would say 10-15 inch lake streamer band will be the main feature by about midnight, oriented ENE-WSW through Chicago and curving more to E-W as it is shaped by frontal boundary wind inflow pattern. Possible resonant bands of 8-12 and 6-10 inches further north with lesser amounts in between. Will more or less double ORD's seasonal snowfall by Monday.
  8. Here we go with the anomaly trackers, now updated after the first three weeks of February ... I left the p14d and p21d lines in the table to compare outcomes with prediction. And I left the old p24d up for comparison with the p21d, 21d actual, as well as the old p28d from 15th to compare with the new p28d. Scoring (provisional) may begin after today's update, and further daily updates can be expected. ___________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ________ (7d) _______--2.0 _--0.6 _+0.2 ___ --8.1 _+1.3 _+3.0 ____+4.3 _+6.8 _+5.5 _______ ( 14 d) ______+1.5 _+2.7 _+2.2 ___ --7.1 _+4.6 _+0.2 ____+1.0 _+5.9 _+1.9 _from 8th (p14d) _____+1.5 _+2.2 _+3.0 ___ --6.5 _+4.0 _+2.0 ____+2.0 _+5.4 _+4.0 ________ (21 d) _____ +5.5 _+6.0 _+5.3 ___ --2.2 _+8.9 _+4.5e___--1.0e_+3.0 _--1.0 _from 22nd (p28d) ___ +7.0 _+7.0 _+6.0 ___ +1.0 _+9.0 _+6.0 ____--2.0 _+1.0 _--2.0 _from 15th (p21d) ____ +3.0 _+3.5 _+3.5 ___ --4.0 _+4.5 _+4.0 ____ 0.0 _+4.8 _--1.5 _from 8th _ (p24d) ___+0.8 _+1.0 _+1.3 ___ --4.5 _+5.0 _+4.0 ____+0.5 _+5.0 _+2.5 _from 15th (p28d) ____+2.5 _+3.0 _+3.0 ___ --2.5 _+3.5 _+2.0 ____--1.0 _+3.5 _--2.0 notes: (8th) _ The 8 to 16 day projections are based on a strong frontal zone setting up at times around 36N so that ATL should remain mostly on the warm side, closer to normal in DCA and the northeast but quite cold most of the time in ORD. DEN stays near the frontal boundary too with oscillations on either side of normal. PHX generally warm and SEA gets occasional below normal days tempering their very warm start. Turning very cold in the northeast at the end of the GFS run, so verbatim those anomalies might not stay positive to the 28th. (15th) _ The 7-d forecasts from the first week to today's update proved reasonably accurate, the average error for the nine forecasts was 0.9 F deg and these forecasts (based on NWS 7-d available on 8th) would have scored 742/900 in our contest scoring system. The comparison at 24d interpolating the current p21 and p28 values is not as good, it was about 2 deg off, mostly warmer in the latest forecasts, but SEA and DEN colder (but this is comparing forecasts to forecasts so we don't know yet the comparison of either forecast set to reality). My assumptions based on 8 to 16 day GFS were that the milder turn of events in the east would continue at least to some extent, and that there would be muted warmth across the south, with colder than normal values prevailing in the northwest, leaving DEN near a fluctuating zero anomaly but more often on the cold side. The west-central cold would relent at ORD but not to enough extent to flip the anomaly there with only seven days left to work on it (it appears likely to turn milder at ORD most of this coming week, eroding the current large negative anomaly). (22nd) _ Wow, the weather machine went into overdrive this past week and blew away even the 7-day NWS forecasts. There has been a rapid decline in the western previous warmth and a boost to the already unexpected eastern warmth past our forecast range entirely, so expect scoring there to be from the "mercy rule" provisions.
  9. February 7th Snow To Rain Event

    It could be a snowstorm, if either it moves 100 miles south, or you move 100 miles north.
  10. Super Bowl Slop Storm

    I have to admit, this system looks wacky on the 24-36h panels with copious moisture developing out of an essentially bone dry stale arctic air mass over the southeast U.S., and almost no energy available to the system. There may be some potential here for surprise snowfalls in the 2-4" range but it could be very hit or miss too. When I look at the current surface charts, a typical temp/dp reading ahead of the developing southern wave is 50/10. This suggests that if saturation can even happen in time, the temp/dp will be something close to 34/31 as precip begins. It may prove helpful to snow production that the heaviest part of the precip will arrive after 6 p.m. Sunday lasting through much of the night to early Monday. So I have revised my forecast from snow only well away from cities to scattered 1-3" throughout and 3-5" potential. I don't think models have much of a handle on this since it's so weak and disorganized. Biggest surprise snow might be well to the southwest of DC in parts of western VA and higher Piedmont areas of NC.
  11. We continue to track the snowfall contest forecasts in this post. I have added total snowfalls for each forecaster, and an error column (dep) which for most is the difference between forecast and current snowfall totals. The few forecasts marked in red have been overtaken by actuals, and they count double in this departure column as it is calculated by adding twice the error values to total departure. Here's an example of why that is so. Let's say everyone in the contest was 100" above the actual snowfall but one forecaster had one error of 10" at one station that was a lower forecast than actual, and every other forecast made was above the actual. That one forecaster would then have 110" more in total forecasts than actual for the other eight locations since the -10" value would bring his total to 100" so his total error is 110" + 10" or 120". This also tells you that once you are passed by actual values for any forecast, each 0.1" at that location will count 0.1" towards your total error while others not yet passed will be improving by 0.1" so relatively speaking, your red marked errors are counting twice as they increase. Snowfall 2017-18 contest -- Table of Forecasts FORECASTER _________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV ___ Total _____ dep so_whats_happening___ 22.0 _ 38.0 _ 63.0 __ 31.0 _ 36.0 __ 85.0 __ 53.0 _ 14.0 _ 96.0 ___ 438.0 ___ 166.8 Tom ________________ 19.6 _ 43.8 _63.1 __ 59.4 _ 53.4 _ 103.8 __ 71.5 __ 9.4 _109.3 ___ 533.3 ___ 228.7 Roger Smith __________19.5 _ 40.0 _ 60.0 __ 33.0 _ 45.0 __ 80.0 __ 55.0 _ 17.5 _110.0___ 460.0 ___ 177.2 dmillz25 _____________ 17.0 _ 41.0 _ 57.0 __ 67.0_ 70.0_ 105.0 __ 60.0 _ 15.0 _ 96.0 ___ 528.0 ___ 223.4 wxdude64 ____________16.3 _ 27.7 _ 37.5 __ 54.8 _ 55.5 _ 102.2 __ 77.6 _ 11.2 _ 99.5 ___ 482.3 ___ 177.7 hudsonvalley21 _______ 15.5 _ 42.0 _ 57.0 __ 47.0 _ 51.0 __ 91.0 __ 64.0 _ 10.0 _ 89.0 ___ 466.5 ___ 165.3 DonSutherland.1 ______ 15.1 _ 34.3 _ 53.4 __ 48.9 _ 54.2 _ 112.6 __ 55.8 __ 7.3 _ 96.7 ___ 478.3 ___ 173.7 H2OTown_WX ________ 14.4 _ 23.2 _ 41.2 __ 44.4 _ 38.7 __ 93.4 __ 40.6 __ 5.4 _ 67.1 ___ 368.4 ___ 093.0 ___ Consensus _____14.4 _33.7 _53.4 __48.9 _51.0 __95.8 __55.8 _10.0 _96.0___459.0___157.8 Stebo _______________ 12.5 _ 33.7 _ 50.0 __ 50.0 _ 57.3 __ 65.0 __ 50.5 __ 7.0 _ 72.5 ___ 398.5 ___ 130.3 wxallannj ____________ 12.3 _ 27.0 _ 33.0 __ 38.0 _ 43.0 __ 53.0 __ 58.0 _ 19.0 _ 57.0 ___ 340.3 ___ 119.1 BKViking _____________11.0 _ 33.0 _ 70.0 __ 40.0 _ 50.0 _ 110.0 __ 77.0 _ 10.0 _110.0___ 511.0 ___ 211.8 RJay ________________ 10.0 _ 40.0 _ 70.0 __ 50.0 _ 55.0 _120.0 __80.0 __ 6.0 _105.0 ___ 536.0 ___ 231.4 Scotty Lightning (SD) ___10.0 _ 23.0 _ 45.0 __ 55.0 _ 67.0 _ 110.0 __ 85.0 __4.0 _ 87.0 ___ 486.0 ___ 183.0 RodneyS ______________8.1 _ 25.0 _ 35.8 __ 52.4 _ 45.7 __ 95.8 __ 52.1 _ 12.5 _ 57.0 ___ 384.4 ___ 093.8 SnoSki14 _____________ 2.0 __ 5.0 _ 35.0 __ 40.0 _ 45.0 __ 80.0 __ 55.0 _ 30.0 _ 75.0 ___ 367.0 ___ 124.4 Table of departures (errors) Numbers in red show forecasts already passed by actual snowfall. These numbers are subject to increases. Numbers in black show forecasts still below actual snowfall. These numbers are subject to decreases. Rank _FORECASTER ______ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BUF __ DEN _ SEA _ BTV ___ Total dep 01 H2OTown_WX ________ 11.1 _ 00.6 _ 06.4 __ 14.1 _ 14.0 _ 10.2 __ 22.1 _ 01.4 _ 13.1 ___ 093.0 02 RodneyS _____________04.8 _ 01.2 _ 01.0 __ 22.1 _ 07.0 _ 12.6 __ 33.6 _ 08.5 _ 03.0 ___ 093.8 03 wxallannj ____________ 09.0 _ 03.2 _ 01.8 __ 07.7 _ 09.7 _ 30.2 __ 39.5 _ 15.0 _ 03.0 ___119.1 04 SnoSki14 ____________ 01.3 _ 18.8 _ 00.2 __ 09.7 _ 07.7 _ 03.2 __ 36.5 _ 26.0 _ 21.0 ___ 124.4 05 Stebo _______________ 09.2 _ 09.9 _ 15.2 __ 19.7 _ 04.6 _ 18.2 __ 32.0 _ 03.0 _ 18.5 ___ 130.3 (06) __ Consensus _____11.1 _09.9 _18.6 __18.6 _01.7 _ 12.6__37.3_06.0 _42.0__ 157.8 06 hudsonvalley21 _______ 12.2 _ 18.2 _ 22.2 __ 16.7 _ 01.7 _ 07.8 __ 45.5 _ 06.0 _ 35.0 ___ 165.3 07 so_whats_happening___ 18.7 _ 14.2 _ 28.2 __ 00.7 _ 16.7 _ 01.8 __ 34.5 _ 10.0 _ 42.0 ___ 166.8 08 DonSutherland.1 ______ 11.8 _ 10.5 _ 18.6 __ 18.6 _ 01.5 _ 29.4 __ 37.3 _ 03.3 _ 42.7 ___ 173.7 09 Roger Smith __________16.2 _ 16.2 _ 25.2 __ 02.7 _ 07.7 _ 03.2 __ 36.5 _ 13.5 _ 56.0___ 177.2 10 wxdude64 ____________13.0 _ 03.9 _ 02.7 __ 24.5 _ 02.8 _ 19.0 __ 59.1 _ 07.2 _ 45.5 ___ 177.7 11 Scotty Lightning (SD) ___06.7 _ 00.8 _ 10.2 __ 24.7 _ 14.3 _ 26.8 __ 66.5_ 00.0 _ 33.0 ___ 183.0 12 BKViking _____________07.7 _ 09.2 _ 35.2 __ 09.7 _ 02.7 _ 26.8 __ 58.5 _ 06.0 _ 56.0___ 211.8 13 dmillz25 _____________ 13.7 _ 17.2 _ 22.2 __ 36.7_ 17.3_ 21.8 __ 41.5 _ 11.0 _ 42.0 ___ 223.4 14 Tom ________________ 16.3 _ 20.0 _28.3 __ 29.1 _ 00.7 _ 20.6 __ 53.0 _ 05.4 _ 55.3 ___ 228.7 15 RJay ________________ 06.7 _ 16.2 _ 35.2 __ 19.7 _ 02.3 _36.8 __61.5 _ 02.0 _ 51.0 ___ 231.4 Amounts to date _______ 3.3 _23.8 _34.8 __30.3 _52.7 _83.2__18.5 _4.0 _ 54.0 __ 304.6 ... snowfalls through Feb 22nd .. updated daily (when snow falls). _____________________________________________________________________________ 15 entrants, the consensus is the median value (8th ranked). Heaviest snowfall forecasts for each location are shown in bold. Least snowfall forecasts are shown in italics. Forecasts passed by totals to date are in red. ______________________________________________________________________________
  12. 2017/18 Lakes/OV winter snowfall contest

    February updates to snowfall amounts and contest The following chart continues on from January which was tracked in the previous post. That post is now retired. The contest results are beginning to take shape in the post before that one (two posts back), forecaster departures from actual snowfall. But so far, most of the "errors" are just snow in the future catching up to our forecasts. There are a few cases where actual amounts have passed a few predictions. Those errors can continue to increase. So here is the February update, the orange numbers on the far left will track February snowfall, and other colored numbers are explained in the first line. Your forecasts appear across each line in the order they hold from lowest (left) to highest (right). Actual seasonal snowfall (which continues to increase) are the red numbers moving slowly across the chart and sometimes passing your forecast. This has happened to most of us at PAH, a few at CMH, and just one forecaster as of Feb 2nd, at PIA and DTW. (update 11th _ Red numbers are moving faster across the charts and now almost a third of the forecasts at half the stations are lower than actual values. Some stations like APN, MQT and CLE continue to have some room left before anyone gets passed by their totals, if it even happens at all (APN is lagging the most). LOC _ Feb totals __ season to date_MIN______________ 8615 avg __ ConA _______________________MAX_______________ APN __ 8.0 _____ 37.1 ____ 72 RS_DM _VP _CI _CM _ST SP 80.4 TH MA 85.3 _HA_ MI__ DA___ IT__ IW,CY 105 ___________________________72.6_73_74_75_77_80___ 81.1_85 ___ 90_92.1_97.6_100 ORD _20.3 _____________27.6 DM_ CM,RS 30.3_TH__HA ST 38.1 SP,CI,VP 40.0 CY _ MA_ MI__ DA ___ IW __ IT 65 ____________________________ 30 _____30.5_35_37 ____ 39 ______ 41 _44 _44.6_44.9__54 CLE _6.4___36.4_45.3 DM _CI ST CM TH_IT VP RS59.2HA MI 67.2 CY SP,IW MA ___ DA 89.7 ___________________46 47 48 48.5 50 53 55__60 64.4___69_70 _ 72 CMH 6.0____14.7 DM_CM ST RS,MA_TH 24.6_25.1 CI MI VP 28.4 SP,IT,HA DA CY IW 34 _________________15_18 20 __ 22 _______ 26 27 28 _____ 30 _ 30.1_31 DTW _ 21.0 __________________30.5 DM___VP RS,SP _ CM _ 44.8 CI,HA MA CY TH 49.3__IW52.7ST MI _ DA __ IT 83 __________________________________38 _40 __ 43______ 45 _46 48 49.1____52___55_55.4_69.2 FWA __ 9.5 ______________ 22.2 TH __CM28.2 RS DM MA 34.0 HA SP 36.9 DA MI VP ST,CI,IW CY_ IT 47 ______________________________ 28___30 32.2 33 ___ 35_36___38_39_41__42__ 45 GRR _20.7_______________57.8 DM_66.8_ST _TH_ CM CI 77.1 SP RS,HA 80.3 MA DA__ MI___ CY, VP _IW __ IT 106 _______________________________68_69.6_70_71 ___ 78__80_____83_83.1_86.8__90___91 GRB _6.7__24.4_ 37 VP TH DM CM,RS CY DA CI SP 52.1ST MI54.2 HA __ IW _ MA ____________________ IT 84 _________________42.4_43.3_45_47 50.3 51 52__53 53.3___56 __ 60 _62 IND _ 1.4____ 9.0 _11 RS DM _ CM,CY HA MA,ST DA 23.5 MI 25.9 SP TH CI, VP IW IT 35 ____________________ 11.6 _ 19 _20 _ 22 _22.1___24.4___26 27__ 31_ 32 LSE _8.1__23.3_31.7 DM RS VP,CI,CY,ST DA TH43.7SP,HA,CM46.1_ MI _ MA _ IW ____________________ IT 81 ___________________ 34 __35 ___41.2 42.1 ___ 45 ______ 47.7_51_52 YXU _14.5 __________ 55 CM 56.8 VP _ CY,CI MA ST,TH DM 75.7 SP 77.9 RS,HA_ IW _DA __ MI ____________ IT 145 __________________________ 59 __ 64_ 68 __70_73 ____76 _____ 80 __81_87.3_95.9 SDF _0.8_____6.0_7 CY_MA_ST,CI_DM TH _RS _MI_CM 13.1_13.9 IW,SP,HA__ DA ____ VP ________________ IT 29 __________________7.5 _8.5_9.7_9.9_10_11.8_12__________ 15___ 17.2 __ 21 MQT _10.3_110.1_142 CI_ST DM__CM_ RS_TH_VP MA192.4_199.8 SP _HA __IT __IW __DA __ MI___ CY 233 ________________157 167.5 168 176 182.5 186 188______ 200 203.4 205 216 222.3 223.4 MKE_16.5__32.7 35 DM,RS_VP CM CY TH_ MA ST,CI 45.9DA SP49.2 HA MI ___ IW __________ IT 71 _____________________ 38 40 41 42.7 44_ 45 ___47.2 48 __ 50_51.1 _ 55 MSP__10.9____29 CI_ST VP 37.4 RS DM CY_HA,CM 48.1 DA SP 50.6 MA MI ___ IW _TH _________________ IT 87 ________________ 34 37 ___ 38 42.5 43_ 45 ____ 49.9 50 __52 52.6___57_59.8 MLI 16.3_14 DM___RS_CY,HA,CM VP28.1 TH DA30.9 CI ST SP33.5 MI __ MA IW ___________________ IT 58 _______________ 22 _ 25____28 ____29 30.2___31 32 33__34.5__38 39 PAH _ 0.1_____ 4 CI ____ ST _MA ______ TH _ HA ___ MI _ CM 9.2 _ 10.9 RS,CY SP,IW 12.5 DM __ DA __ VP ____ IT 23 ____________________ 5 _ 5.5 _____7.7 _ 8 ___ 8.8 __ 9 ________ 11 ___ 12 ____ 12.6 _ 14.3 _ 20 PIA _ 9.4_____8.9 DM__RS__ST,HA__CM_20.3MA VP 24.0=SP 24.9 MI _TH __CY _DA __ IW ___ CI __ IT 40 __________________12 __ 18 __ 19____21_23___24 _____ 25.7_27.1_28_28.3_ 30 __ 37 STL_0.8_5.5_10 HA,CM_MA,DM ST TH RS MI IW,VP DA SP 18.1 18.4__ CY CI _____________________________>> IT 52 _________________ 12.5_14_14.5_15_16.1_17_17.2_18 ____ 22 23 YYZ _ 11.5 _________ 27 IW _____RS 35.6__ TH __ CI,CM,SP 42.5 HA DM ST,MA 46.8 _CY_DA_ VP _ MI ______>> IT 104 __________________________ 35 _____ 37.5__ 40 _______ 43_44.6_45 ___ 48_48.2_49_55.5 Total snow to date __ 678.8" (67.0%) Feb 24 _ Amounts are now updated through Feb 23 (YXU still only through 15th, YYZ through 22nd) ... new snow on 22nd-23rd, 6.6" MSP, 3.6" MQT and 0.4" LSE ... ... ... Total seasonal snowfalls at the two Canadian locations are 141.0 cm for YXU and 90.1 cm for YYZ. We are using an alternate reporting site for YXU located in a similar zone relative to the Lake Huron snowbelt, namely Tillsonburg which is 40 km east of London (YXU not measuring snow this winter). The contest will be scored both with and without this YXU alternative data. ... percentages of 1986-2015 normal so far at ... PAH (136) DTW (117), GRR (87), CMH (87), YYZ (84), MLI (84), FWA (83), PIA (82), ORD (80), YXU (75), MSP (74), MKE (66), MQT (55), CLE (54), LSE (51), APN (46), GRB (45), SDF (43), IND (35), STL (30) (about 75% would be "normal" at this stage of winter assuming steady increase to end of season so lower MI and s ON appear to be doing better than an average winter, also recently central IL-IN-OH, most other places perhaps less than expected at this point.) Forecasters and snow totals, tie-breakers ... bold is shared win for Dec (ORD) and lone winner for Jan (IND). code _ FORECASTER __ SNOW TOTAL ______T-1 __ T-2 __ T-3 _____________________________Actual___ 5.3 __ 3.7 _21.0 (to 9th) DM ____ dmc76 ________ 787.6 __________ 2.3 __ 3.8 __ 6.8 CM ____ cmillzz ________ 841.0 __________ 4.2 __ 8.2 _ 15.0 RS ____ Roger Smith ____ 851.0 __________ 6.5 __ 3.5 _ 17.2 ST ____ Stebo __________882.5 __________ 7.0 __ 8.0 _ 13.5 CI ____ Central Illinois ___ 883.5 __________ 9.0 _ 11.0 __9.5 TH ____ Thomp2mp _____ 915.2 __________13.1 _ 4.5 _ 18.0 VP ____ VPBob21 _______ 943.0 ___________ 6.5 _13.6 _ 9.9 HA ____ Hawkeye_wx ___ 995.0 ___________ 7.0 __ 9.0 _13.0 MA ____ Madwx ________ 999.5 __________ 10.2 __ 6.3 _ 9.2 c avg __ Contest average _1003.5 __________ 8.2 __ 7.7 _13.3 SP ____ Slow poke ______1012.0 __________ 8.0 __ 8.0 __ 8.0 8615 _1986-2015 avg _1013.9 ________ 8.5 __8.6_10.2 CY ____ Cyclone77 ______ 1052.0 _________ 6.4 __5.0 _16.8 MI ____ michsnowfreak __ 1111.0 _________ 9.8 __ 9.0 _12.1 DA ____ DAFF __________ 1128.3 ________ 10.2 __ 8.1 _13.3 IW ____ IWXwx _________1145.0 _________ 8.5 _ 11.0 _16.5 IT ____ IndTenn ________ 1506.0 _________15.0 __6.0 _20.0 First tie-breaker was a tie with cmilzz 1.1" below ORD (5.3") in Dec and cyclone77 1.1" above. The second tie-breaker was won by DMC76 with 3.8" (actual 3.7") for Jan snow at IND. The third tie-breaker is Feb snow at DTW. -- IndTenn had already won this one on the 10th with highest forecast of 20.0" (when 19.6" had fallen, the rest won't change this result which is already up to 21.0").
  13. The contest follows the same format as the past two winters. Predict the total seasonal snowfall (some may have already fallen at some locations) using the following table as a guide (1986-2015 average values and the past two seasons are shown) ... please use the entry form below this table. Note there are three tie-breakers involving monthly amounts at ORD, IND and DTW. LOCATION _______________ 1986-2015 ____ 2015-16 ____ 2016-17 Alpena, MI (APN) _____________ 80.4 _______ 88.8 ________66.4 Chicago, IL (ORD) ____________ 38.1 _______ 31.2 ________26.1 Cleveland, OH (CLE) ___________67.2 _______32.8 ________ 37.3 Columbus, OH (CMH) __________28.4 _______ 17.1 ________ 9.3 Detroit, MI (DTW) ____________ 44.8 _______ 35.3 _______ 37.9 Fort Wayne, IN (FWA) _________ 34.0 _______ 20.0 _______ 18.5 Grand Rapids, MI (GRR) ________77.1 _______ 61.1 _______ 60.1 Green Bay, WI (GRB) __________54.2 _______ 50.0 _______ 53.2 Indianapolis, IN (IND) _________ 25.9 _______ 13.3 ________9.7 La Crosse, WI (LSE) ___________46.1 _______ 40.3 _______ 42.2 London, ON (YXU) ____________ 75.7 _______ 65.2 _______ 66.1 Louisville, KY (SDF) ___________ 13.9 _______ 14.9 ________ 2.7 Marquette, MI (MQT) _________ 199.8 ______ 160.9 ______ 154.0 Milwaukee, WI (MKE) __________49.2 ________39.1 _______ 37.6 Minneapolis, MN (MSP) ________ 50.6_________36.7 _______32.0 Moline, IL (MLI) ______________ 33.5 ________ 24.1 _______22.4 Paducah, KY (PAH)_____________ 9.2 ________ 12.1 ________1.2 Peoria, IL (PIA) _______________24.9 ________ 15.3 _______13.9 St. Louis, MO (STL) ___________ 18.4 ________ 10.9 ________3.2 Toronto, ON (YYZ) ____________ 42.5 ________ 25.9 _______32.6 ------------------------------- --------------------------------------- --------------------------------------- ENTRY FORM APN __ ORD __ CLE __ CMH __ DET __ FWA __ GRR __ GRB __ IND __ LSE __ YXU __ SDF __ MQT __ MKE __ MSP __ MLI __ PAH __ PIA __ STL __ YYZ __ Tiebreakers 1. December 2017 snowfall ORD (8.5" normal) 2. January 2018 snowfall IND (8.6" normal) 3. February 2018 snowfall DTW (10.2" normal) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- If you want to see individual years in the 1986-2015 period, check the 2015-16 contest thread (several pages into the archives now), post number one there has a table of the 30 years in the period used. Entries will be accepted until end of the day Thursday, Nov 30th (2359 CST). You can edit entries before that time as the table of entries will be done in early December (using an excel table format). Good luck !! Late entries (Dec 1 to 7) will be scored but cannot place higher than 6th, enter for the fun of it if you want though. Entries that appear in the thread after Dec 8 will not be scored. (This was later extended to end of Dec 10 to encourage more entries -- contest is now underway and closed to further entries).
  14. Record breaking warmth in the US in the 5-15 day

    Records most likely in southern AZ and south-central CA, further north and east there will be some mixing in of cooler air masses moving southeast from Canadian prairies to plains states. In about a week could see some spring-like conditions in Pac NW and southwest BC also. Huge contrasts in snow cover this month, perhaps not that unusual, but 2-3' of snow in Cascades, snow-free either side of that range (extending into southernmost parts of BC including the south Okanagan valley). Another peak in snowfall over the Monashee range in south central BC but not snow-free in next valley east, about 3-6" on the ground there. The recent temperature trend has been near normal in the inter-mountain valleys to about +4F on the coast.
  15. Table of forecasts for February 2018 Forecaster ______ Region ___ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Roger Smith _____ C + W ___+2.5 _+2.0 _+2.2 ___ +3.0 _--1.5 _+0.5 ____+2.0 _+4.5 _+5.3 so_whats_happening ______ (-4%) ____PA / NY __+1.4 _+0.8 _--1.1 ___ +1.4 _+2.3 _+1.8 ____+2.5 _+1.7 _+0.8 Mercurial ________C + W ___+0.8 _+0.4 _+0.6 ___ +2.4 _+1.1 _+1.5 ____+2.0 _+2.4 _+2.5 Scotty Lightning ___ PHL ____+0.5 __0.0 _--0.5 ___ --1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ____+0.5 _+1.0 __0.0 ___Normal _______ -- -- _____ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 _____ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ______0.0 __0.0 __0.0 hudsonvalley21 ___ NYC ____--0.2 _--0.8 _--1.2 ___ --1.9 _+1.6 _+1.5 ____+1.7 _+2.8 _+1.8 DonSutherland.1 __ NYC ____--0.8 _--1.4 _--1.8 ___ --3.0 _+0.2 _+1.6 ____+5.0 _+6.0 _+5.0 H2O _____ (-4%) _ M A ____--0.9 _--1.4 _--2.1 ___ --2.0 _--0.1 _+1.0 ____+2.5 _+3.0 _+1.8 BKViking __ (-2%) _NYC ____--1.0 _--1.2 _--1.2 ___ --2.1 _--0.5 _+0.3 ____+1.5 _+2.8 _+1.5 dmillz25 __ (-4%) _ NYC ____--1.0 _--1.9 _--2.5 ___ --2.5 _--0.9 _+1.3 ____+3.0 _+3.0 _+2.5 nrg Jeff _________ TNV ____ --1.0 _--2.0 _--2.0 ___ --4.0 __0.0 _+1.0 ____+3.0 _+5.0 _+3.0 mappy ___ (-4%) _ M A ____ --1.3 _--1.0 _--1.8 ___ --1.6 _--0.2 _+1.3 ____+2.0 _+3.0 _+1.5 ___ Consensus ___ -- -- _____--1.3 _--1.7 _--1.8 ___ --2.0 _--0.5 _+1.0 ____+2.0 _+3.0 _+1.8 Stebo __________ GL/OV ___ --1.4 _--2.0 _--2.6 ___ --1.2 _--0.5 _+0.7 ____+1.2 _+1.5 _+1.2 RJay ____________ NYC ____--1.5 _--1.5 _--1.5 ___ --1.5 _--0.5 _+1.0 ____+4.0 _+4.0 _+2.0 wxallannj ________ NYC ____--1.5 _--1.8 _--1.3 ___ --2.4 _--0.8 _+0.7 ____+2.4 _+3.5 _+2.2 wxdude64 _______ M A _____--1.6 _--2.1 _--1.9 ___ --2.9 _--0.5 _+0.6 ____+1.8 _+3.4 _+1.8 jaxjagman _______ TNV ____--1.8 _--2.2 _--2.8 ___ --1.8 _+0.1 _+1.1 ____+2.7 _+4.7 _+3.2 H2OTown_WX____ N E _____--2.3 _--2.4 _--2.6 ___ --2.5 _--3.2 _--1.3 ____+1.7 _+0.5 _+1.3 Tom ____________ PHL ____--2.4 _--2.2 _--2.2 ___ --4.2 _--1.9 _--0.8 ____--0.9 _+0.5 _+0.7 Orangeburgwx _____ SE ____--2.5 _--1.7 _--0.8 ___ --2.9 _--1.1 _+1.0 ____--2.7 _+0.4 _--1.5 CPcantmeasuresnow NYC ___ --3.4 _--5.0 _--4.4 ___ --2.0 _--1.4 _+1.3 ____+4.3 _+3.5 _+2.1 RodneyS _________ M A ___ --4.4 _--3.8 _--3.0 ___ --6.3 _--3.9 _--1.3 ____+2.6 _+8.1 _+3.1 ______________________________________________________________________________ so far, 21 entries, consensus (median) is 11th ranked value. highest forecasts in red, lowest in blue (Normal is lowest for PHX). mostly the same entrants as January, two new faces, welcome to Orangeburgwx who is handling the SE duties and CPcantmeasuresnow who adds a seventh participant for the NYC crew. The only forum to see any downward change in turnout is TNV at 2 (had 3 last month). Good luck to everyone, and hold on tight because this looks like a wild ride. Consensus is that after a cold start things may reverse at least partially, otherwise I think the eastern and some central forecasts might be 2-3 deg lower. A warm scenario for the west is more widely shared. Lots of spread especially for the eastern three and ORD. DEN will obviously be near a frontal boundary much of the time and this leads to a variety of forecasts (their standard deviation is also higher than most).
  16. Super Bowl Slop Storm

    This appears to be a very marginal event highly dependent on urban heat island and elevation controls for snow outcomes that will range from trace in larger urban areas to 1-2" in higher rural locations (2-4" in mountains). Still some time for it to develop better dynamics but it just hasn't got much energy, it is trudging along without much organization or focus. Sort of like me.
  17. Relaxed late penalties this year (1% each four hours to 18z 2nd) will make that a rather gentle 2% deduction ... we just passed from 3% to 4% ... so I am hoping some of the other January participants will enter soon before the larger penalties begin. Table of entries will follow when it seems that all entries have been posted.
  18. January scoring is final (previous post) and Mercurial is the champion, anchoring Central / Western to first place in the regional rumble, despite a strong performance by the deep NYC crew. I was able to boost Mercurial's individual score in the rumble by tying DonS for high score in the western portion. Third place in the rumble is a tie between Mid Atlantic and Tennessee Valley, with Philadelphia taking fifth place (on SD's score, SD now being Scotty Lightning). Extreme Forecasts Here's a summary of extreme forecasts that succeeded in January. (An extreme forecast must be either the most extreme or second most extreme capturing high score to qualify ... and in our scoring table, a loss is given only if the extreme is not high score but the second most extreme is ... so quite often, a loss in this table is not a bad outcome for the forecaster, depending on how wide of the mark they were. In 2015 to 2017, tracking extreme forecasts, we found that more than half to two-thirds of the months qualified, showing our generally conservative forecasting approach). DCA just missed qualifying (for Scotty Lightning and Normal to share a win, H2OTown_wx a loss), as Mercurial had high score with third coldest forecast. NYC had the same outcome although here Mercurial and several others had higher scores than the extreme entries, but there were only two plus Normal who had a warmer forecast than the outcome. BOS (--0.4) did qualify with H2OTown_wx (-0.1) getting a win, Scotty Lightning and Normal (0.0) sharing a loss. ORD (+0.8) saw Scotty Lightning and Normal (0.0) sharing a win, H2OTown_wx the loss at +2.0 (although a great recovery from where ORD stood at mid-month). ATL (-2.9) failed to qualify, it was fairly close to our consensus and seven of 21 forecasts were colder. IAH (-4.5) gave Stebo (-3.2) a win. DEN (+3.9) produced a win for Mercurial (+2.5). PHX (+4.8) was a winner for NRG Jeff (+4.0). SEA (+3.0) was also warmer than all forecasts and gave DonSutherland.1 (+_2.5) a win. Extreme Forecasts wins and losses DonSutherland1 ________1-0 Mercurial _____________ 1-0 NRG Jeff ______________1-0 Stebo ________________ 1-0 H2OTown_wx _________ 1-1 Scotty Lightning (SD)____1-1 Normal _______________1-1
  19. The 2018 version of the long-standing forum temperature forecast contest will go under the title of "Regional rumble" and this will create a new dynamic for the contest, operating in sync with the individual contest we have always had, as best score from each regional forum will count towards a Regional Championship throughout the year. To facilitate this, I have posted "portal" threads in regional forums where those members who may never venture into this general interest forum can enter directly. For the regulars here, please identify the forum that you are playing for -- I will take central/western even though I probably post more often in GL/OV and MA. If any regional forum wanted to have two teams representing different geographic divisions, that could be accommodated but I am not proactively going to arrange that (you'll need to inform me about it and who is on which squad). So the rules remain almost the same, only the paradigm of competition has been amended. I will relax the late penalties slightly for 2018. And in particular, the late penalties for January won't start until the end of Wednesday Jan 3rd (in PST that would be 4th:08z), after which they will run at 2% per hour to 10z Jan 6th. Otherwise, here's a summary of the old and the new late penalties. I can't go any lower than this without giving an advantage to late entries. (note: the deadline will be the same, 06z of the 1st day -- starting with February) hours late ______ 2017 penalty ____ 2018 penalty first 36h ________ 1% per 2h _____ 1% per 4h next 82h ________ 1% per 1h _____ 1% per h for 91h when 100% reached __ 6th 04z ____ 6th 13z ________________________________________________________________________________ Predictions will continue to be temperature anomalies (F deg) relative to 1981-2010 averages, for these nine locations: DCA __ NYC __ BOS ___ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA ________________________________________________________________________________ Scoring rules (these are not different but gathered from various earlier posts and codified for smoother application in unusual situations) ... 1. In a "normal" month with the outcome between -5 and +5 F anomalies, and at least one forecast scoring 60 points, all forecasts receive a score based on 100 minus 2 per 0.1 error. The one forecast scoring above 60 in a poor set of forecasts will be rewarded more than cases where all scores are low (see 3). 2. In an "abnormal" month with the outcome either lower than -5 or higher than +5, scoring errors are relaxed as follows: between -5/+5 and any forecast more extreme, only one point is deducted per 0.1 error. That 0.1 grade is matched between zero and correct sign forecasts that are equally removed from zero as actual is removed from -5/+5. Example, if the outcome is +6.8, then reduced error zones are 0.0 to +1.8 and +5.0 to +6.8 and in addition an equal zone above the actual which would be +6.8 to +8.6. In this system, two-point reductions still occur from +1.8 to +5.0. When the actual reaches +10.0, all forecasts with correct sign receive one point per 0.1 deg predicted (e.g. +7.0 is scored 70). In cases with even larger anomalies, this system adjusts by proportion, e.g., for +12.0, a forecast of +9.0 is scored (9/12) of 100 points or 75. 3. In a "poor scoring" month where no forecast receives 60 points using these standard systems, a boosted "minimum progression" of scores is substituted, in rank order, 60, 55, 50, 45, 40, 35, 30, 27, 24, and this turns into 2 point differentials where the number of forecasts requires it to reach zero for low score. One slight difference from previous years is that there won't be a second lower set of boosted scores for cases with no score over 40, no matter how bleak the actual scoring, we will go with this max of 60 each month. And if anyone scores higher by systems 1 or 2 than they would get from this minimum progression, they will earn that score instead (this rarely happens but it can in theory). Remember, with just one raw score of 60 or higher, this all goes out the window and everyone else is stuck with their poor score. That will often mean considerably more zero scores than if this system were applied. Please note, the late penalties are still applied to these minimum progression scores, if the 40 score has a 5% late penalty, then it changes to 38 and this does not affect any other scores. One new feature will be tracking your average error per station. That will be revealed in a separate table perhaps at the end of each three month period. If every month was scored by rule 1 above, then the average error would be simple to calculate, it would be (100 minus your average score) divided by 20. If you average 70 as a score, your average error is 1.5 deg. But with some cases scored with smaller error points, that may not apply, so to give you the absolute feedback on how you're doing, I will provide those averages (and we'll see if that runs exactly the same as the scoring order or not). I hope you'll continue to support the temperature forecast contest and spread the word in your regional forums. But look for threads there by about the 28th. I will count entries posted in those threads and bring the forecasts over here for our tables of forecasts etc. The 2017 annual contest has become very, very close and depends almost literally on how cold it gets on Dec 30-31 at various locations, check the December thread for developments.
  20. I have the feeling the cold pattern will flip near the 15th to 18th with very mild weather ending the month in the central and eastern, hence these numbers (we will be around -5 before this) ... west warm all month. ____ +2.5 _ +2.0 _ +2.2 ___ +3.0 _ --1.5 _ +0.5 ___+2.0 _+4.5 _+5.3
  21. I've noticed, in global warming waves are not breaking the western mountains

    Not sure I am totally following the thought of the OP but when Pac systems try to move inland between 47N and 52N there is a lot more mountainous terrain to cross than north or south of that band. 50-51N involves five major ranges each with peaks near 10,000 ft or higher. I live between ranges 2 and 3 in that sequence and we have local rainforest conditions despite fact there is near-desert in valleys 1 and 2 ... and we get a lot of precip so this shows that these waves are losing energy. It's only a two-range crossing in n BC.
  22. The monthly temperature forecast contest has been a feature of this forum and its predecessor (Eastern) for a long time. But it's hosted in the general interest forum and so as host, I would like to broaden the appeal and get more people involved in the contest. To help with that, the contest will now be more than just an individual competition, although that part remains. Now it's also going to take best scores from each regional forum and determine a champion in the "Regional Rumble." You can enter both here in this thread, or over at the home thread which is here: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50671-january-2018-temperature-forecast-contest-regional-rumble-begins/ The contest asks you to predict the temperature anomalies in F deg for nine locations: (eastern) DCA, NYC, BOS (central) ORD, ATL, IAH (western) DEN, PHX, SEA The regional aspect will take best scores for each of those three groups of three stations, and that may come from different contributors within the regional forum's entrants. And if you enter all twelve months of the year you will be participating in the individual contest as well. All rules can be reviewed over at the thread linked above, but basically you get a score out of 100 based on how close you are to the actual anomaly (relative to 1981-2010). You lose 2 points (in most cases) for each 0.1 deg error. Months that are either more anomalous than +/- 5 degrees or that score worse than 60 for top score go to secondary scoring rules that avoid a lot of zero scores for different forecasts. So with that said, here's your easy portal for entering the forecast contest, you don't have to go "over there" but instead you can stay in the comfort of your own regional forum and enter from here. I will collect all forecasts posted here and reproduce them in a table of forecasts. This thread will stay open with titles changing as we approach monthly deadlines. Usually the forecasts are due by 06z of the 1st of each month with time penalties (1% per 4h late for 36h, then 1% per hour). This first time out with New Years and the storm interests, the deadline is shifted to the 4th at 08z. If you enter, thanks and good luck! (this thread will appear in all regional forums)
  23. The monthly temperature forecast contest has been a feature of this forum and its predecessor (Eastern) for a long time. But it's hosted in the general interest forum and so as host, I would like to broaden the appeal and get more people involved in the contest. To help with that, the contest will now be more than just an individual competition, although that part remains. Now it's also going to take best scores from each regional forum and determine a champion in the "Regional Rumble." You can enter both here in this thread, or over at the home thread which is here: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50671-january-2018-temperature-forecast-contest-regional-rumble-begins/ The contest asks you to predict the temperature anomalies in F deg for nine locations: (eastern) DCA, NYC, BOS (central) ORD, ATL, IAH (western) DEN, PHX, SEA The regional aspect will take best scores for each of those three groups of three stations, and that may come from different contributors within the regional forum's entrants. And if you enter all twelve months of the year you will be participating in the individual contest as well. All rules can be reviewed over at the thread linked above, but basically you get a score out of 100 based on how close you are to the actual anomaly (relative to 1981-2010). You lose 2 points (in most cases) for each 0.1 deg error. Months that are either more anomalous than +/- 5 degrees or that score worse than 60 for top score go to secondary scoring rules that avoid a lot of zero scores for different forecasts. So with that said, here's your easy portal for entering the forecast contest, you don't have to go "over there" but instead you can stay in the comfort of your own regional forum and enter from here. I will collect all forecasts posted here and reproduce them in a table of forecasts. This thread will stay open with titles changing as we approach monthly deadlines. Usually the forecasts are due by 06z of the 1st of each month with time penalties (1% per 4h late for 36h, then 1% per hour). This first time out with New Years and the storm interests, the deadline is shifted to the 4th at 08z. If you enter, thanks and good luck! (this thread will appear in all regional forums)
  24. February contest and Regional Rumble thread now open at this location: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50880-february-2018-temperature-forecast-contest-and-regional-rumble/ or you can enter here. Central/western had two entrants in January and Mercurial has the high score individually (so far based on provisional end of January estimates) anchoring us to second place in the Rumble just behind powerhouse NYC. More help would not hurt our chances.
×