Roger Smith

Table of forecasts for July 2025 (not sure what happened to BKViking, I sent them a reminder which they acknowledged, but then no forecast ... anyway, here's what the rest of you predicted ...) FORECASTER __________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA RJay __________________________ +2.5 _ +2.5 _+2.5 __ +2.5 _+2.0 _+2.0 __ +2.0 _+2.0 _ +0.5 wxallannj ______________________ +2.2 _ +2.3 _+2.5 __+2.2 _+1.7 _ +2.5 __ +1.6 _ +0.2 _ +1.8 StormchaserChuck1 ___________+1.9 _ +1.9 _ +1.9 __ +1.5 _ +1.2 _ +1.3 __ +2.0 _ +2.3 _ +3.2 Roger Smith ___________________+1.7 _ +1.5 _ +1.3 __ +1.2 _ +2.0 _ +2.0 __ +0.3 _ +1.5 _ +0.7 so_whats_happening __________+1.5 _ +1.6 _ +2.1 __ +1.8 _ +0.8 _ +0.4 __ +0.2 _ +0.9 _ +2.0 DonSutherland1 _______________ +1.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 __ +1.5 _ +1.5 _ +0.5 __ +0.3 _ +1.2 _ +2.4 ___ Consensus _________________ +1.5 _+1.8 _+1.5 __ +1.6 _ +1.2 _ +0.7 __ +1.5 _ +1.4 _ +1.0 Scotty Lightning _______________ +1.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.0 __ +1.0 _ +1.5 _ +2.0 __ +1.0 _ +2.0 _ +1.0 Tom ___________________________ +1.5 _ +1.4 _ +1.5 __ +1.6 _ +0.8 _ +0.5 __ +1.1 _ +1.4 _ +0.8 hudsonvalley21 ________________ +1.3 _ +1.8 _ +2.1 __ +2.1 _ +0.6 _ +0.4 __ +2.1 _ +2.2 _ +0.9 wxdude64 _____________________ +1.1 _ +2.1 _ +2.5 __ +1.9 _ +0.7 _ +0.7 __ +1.2 _ +1.6 _ +2.7 ___ Normal ______________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 RodneyS _______________________ -0.2 _ +0.4 _ +0.8 __ +0.4 _ -0.3 _ +1.7 __ +1.5 _ +0.1 _ +0.8 ___________________ Persistence _____________________+0.6 _ +1.2 _ +1.6 __ +3.6 _ +1.7 _ +1.7 __ +0.8 _ +2.2 _ +1.0 ============= Highest and lowest forecasts are color coded. Normal is lower than all forecasts for all locations except DCA and ATL.

In terms of when does the hottest 31 day interval occur, this is the frequency of these intervals (* symbol means interval is matched by a later one, usually the next day is its starting point but differentials are noted of up to five days for 1899 (intervals starting July 2 and 7) and six days for 2010 (June 27 and July 3 start these)). Since this list includes the cooler half of the entries, we do find a few overlapping a calendar month. (June can only be 'all in' for May 31 to June 30 or June 1 to July 1, the first of those exists in the data for 1925). dur'n hottest 31d ___ Years include May 31 - Jun 30 __ 1925 Jun 5 - Jul 5 _____ 1984 Jun 7 - Jul 7 _____ 1883 Jun 8 - Jul 8 _____ 1888, 2004 Jun 11 - Jul 11 ____ 1945 Jun 14 - Jul 14 ___ 1994 Jun 15 - Jul 15 ___ 1962, 1976 Jun 16 - Jul 16 ___ 2000 Jun 17 - Jul 17 ___ 1912 Jun 18 - Jul 18 ___ 1869, 1872, 1880, 1971 Jun 19 - Jul 19 ___ 1965* 1997 Jun 20 - Jul 20 __ 1904, 1907* 1908 1909, 1923* 1953 1964 1966 Jun 21 - Jul 21 ___ 1874, 1934*, Jun 22 - Jul 22 __ 1946, 2017 Jun 23 - Jul 23 __ 1876, 1897, 2003, 2013 Jun 24 - Jul 24 __ 1875, 1898, 1901, 1922, 1952, 1991 Jun 25 - Jul 25 __ 1900, 1906, 2014 Jun 26 - Jul 26 __ 1878, 1889 Jun 27 - Jul 27 __ 2010* 2012* 2021 Jun 28 - Jul 28 __ 1881, 1910, 2018 Jun 29 - Jul 29 __ 1948, 2023 Jun 30 - Jul 30 __ 1887, 1903, 1913 July 1-31 _________ 1919, 1950 July 2 - Aug 1 ____ 1899* 1911, 1921, 1951, 1974, 2019, 2020 July 3 - Aug 2 ___ 1886, 1999 July 4 - Aug 3 ___ 1929, 1942, 1957, 2011 July 5 - Aug 4 ___ 1936, 1937, 1986, 1993, July 6 - Aug 5 ___ 1885, 1890*, 1928, 1934, 1982 July 7 - Aug 6 ___ 1879* 1899, 1981, 1989 July 8 - Aug 7 ___ 1905, 1955, 1967, 1992, 2008 July 9 - Aug 8 ___ 1954, 1960, 1987, 2007 July 10 - Aug 9 __ 1882, 1894, 1932, 1941, 1972 July 11 - Aug 10 __ 1870, 1924, 1927, 1930, 1931, 1943, 1968* 1979, 1983, 2006 July 12 - Aug 11 __ 1873, 1892, 1902, 2022 July 13 - Aug 12 __ 1893, 1896, 1917*, 1949, 1963, 1977, 1995, 1998 July 14 - Aug 13 __ 1980 July 15 - Aug 14 __ 1877, 1918, 1940, 2005 July 16 - Aug 15 __ 1926, 1975, 1985, 1988, 2016 July 17 - Aug 16 __ 1895 July 18 - Aug 17 __ 1990 July 19 - Aug 18 __ 1920, 2015 July 20 - Aug 19 __ 2002* July 22 - Aug 21 __ 1937, 1944 July 23 - Aug 22 __ 1958, 1970 July 24 - Aug 23 __1939 July 25 - Aug 24 __1938 July 27 - Aug 26 __1947, 2009 July 29 - Aug 28 _ 1891 July 30 - Aug 29 _ 1871 July 31 - Aug 30 __2001 Aug 3 - Sep 2 ____ 1969 Aug 5 - Sep 4 ____ 1973 Aug 6 - Sep 5 ____ 1996 Aug 7 - Sep 6 ____ 1914, 1956, 1961 Aug 8 - Sep 7 ____ 1978 Aug 10 - Sep 9 ___ 1959 Aug 13 - Sep 12 __ 1884 (Aug 21 - Sep 20 1948 a secondary peak) __________________ From the above it is clear that a large cluster of years are hottest from early July to early August. In 1991 intervals starting May 3 - June 2 averaged maximum of 80.0 + (this persisted to Aug 27 to Sep 26), the second earliest start for the 80+ season was 1962 (May 11 to Jun 10) but that summer ended a lot earlier as Aug 5 to Sep 4 was the last 80+ interval. The latest interval to average 80.0 or above was Sep 9 to Oct 8 1931, followed by Sep 7 to Oct 6, 1941 tied by 2005, then Sep 5 to Oct 5 1881. and tied fifth latest 1959, 1961 Sep 3 to Oct 2, then 1921 with Sep 2 to Oct 1. .. 2017 had 79.00 as late as Sep 11 to Oct 11. 1895 began its 80+ season with May 21 to Jun 21, and ran to Aug 30-Sep 29 but there were late-summer gaps, no interval starting Aug 17 to 21 averaged 80+. .

I used 31 days because July and August (and Dec Jan) are 31 day months and many of the records for calendar months are set in those months (not as many in winter given that Feb contributes more than June to lists of all-time record months). Our calendar has seven 31d months, four 30d and February (28 or 29). I can rerun the data and generate a list of top twenty 30-day averages, will hazard a guess it won't change a lot from the above. I went back into the table posted and fixed a few minor ranking errors after going back over my excel file generated list. Below 20th place (the portion you quoted) there are some 'B' 31-day intervals from various years. Each time one of those makes the list, the years below it are bumped down one rank if you were ranking years for their hottest 31-day interval (the B examples would not be in that list).

If there was no calendar and every 31-day interval was equally valid, these would be the top 50 warmest "months" for NYC ... just counting the warmest instance in any given year unless in theory two non-overlapping 31 day intervals qualified, 1988 and 2002 were the only examples (otherwise, they do not quite make list, the second instance in 1931 ranks 51st) ... a number of secondary peaks more than halfway through these qualifying spells do not count for ranking separately, there needs to be total separation of the intervals for ranking ... you could rank more if you accepted two sets that don't include the actual peak ... it's pretty similar to the list of warmest calendar months but the averages are generally higher and it's interesting that no annual peak happens to coincide with a calendar month. I list them by mean maximum to reduce the interference of the growing heat island, mean daily would be skewed more to recent examples. Rank Year __ Interval (31d) _________ Mean max (F) 1. 1966 June 20 to July 20 ___________91.97 2. 1993 July 5 to Aug 4 ______________91.61 3. 1999 July 3 or 4 to Aug 2 or 3 ____ 90.94 4. 1955 July 8 to Aug 7 ______________ 90.90 5. 1944 July 22 to Aug 21 ___________ 90.84 6. 1980 July 14 to Aug 13 ____________ 90.71 t7. 1988A July 16 to Aug 15 ___________ 90.29 t7. 2010 June 27 to July 27 __________ 90.29 (or July 3 to Aug 2 was also 90.29) 9. 2005 July 15 to Aug 14 ___________ 89.87 10. 2011 July 4 to Aug 3 _____________ 89.84 11. 1983 July 11 to Aug 10 ____________ 89.71 12. 1952 June 24 to July 24 _________ 89.35 t13. 1977 July 13 to Aug 12 ___________ 89.29 t13. 1995 July 13 to Aug 12 ___________ 89.29 t15. 1876 June 23 to July 23 __________ 89.26 t15. 1991 June 24 to July 24 __________ 89.26 17. 1949 July 13 to Aug 12 ____________ 89.13 __ a non-overlapping 31d interval June 11 to July 11 was 86.74 18. 1953 June 20 to July 20 __________ 88.90 __ non-overlapping 31d intervals Aug 8 (or 10) to Sep 7 (or 9) 87.00 19. 2002 Jul 20 or 22 to Aug 19 or 21_ 88.87 __ non-overlapping 31d interval June 20 or 21 to July 20 or 21 was 87.10 20. 2022 July 12 to Aug 11 ____________ 88.77 (also 87.19 Aug 2 to Sep 1, partial overlap, secondary peak) 21. 1943 July 11 to Aug 10 ____________ 88.42 22. 2012 Jun 27 or 28 to Jul 27 or 28_ 88.32 23. 2024 June 18 to July 18 __________ 88.23 (also 88.19 July 4 to Aug 3, partial overlap, secondary peak) t24. 1979 July 11 to Aug 10_____________88.19 t24. 2015 July 19 to Aug 18____________88.19 (also 87.87 Aug 10 to Sep 9, partial overlap, secondary peak) 26. 1994 June 14 to July 14 ___________ 88.16 (also 87.94 July 5 to Aug 4, partial overlap, secondary peak) 27. 1957 July 4 to Aug 3 ______________ 88.10 28. 2016 July 16 to Aug 15 ____________ 88.06 29. 2013 June 23 to July 23 __________ 87.97 30. 1959 Aug 10 to Sep 9 _____________ 87.87 t31. 1938 July 25 to Aug 24 ___________87.74 t31. 1939 July 24 to Aug 23 __________ 87.74 33. 2020 July 2 to Aug 1 _____________ 87.68 t34. 1901 June 24 to July 24 __________ 87.61 t34. 1981 July 7 to Aug 6 ______________ 87.61 t34. 1987 July 9 to Aug 8 _____________ 87.61 37. 1872 June 18 to July 18 ___________ 87.55 t38. 1936 July 5 to Aug 4 ______________87.52 t38. 1988 B June 12 to July 12 _________87.52 note, ranks below are +1 from ranks of years not intervals e.g. 2006 is 42nd ranked year for its hottest 31d interval t40. 1954 July 9 to Aug 8 _____________ 87.29 t40. 1970 July 23 to Aug 22 __________ 87.29 t40. 1982 July 6 to Aug 5 _____________ 87.29 43. 2006 July 11 to Aug 10 ____________87.26 44. 1968 July 12 to Aug 11 ___________ 87.23 45. 1930 July 11 to Aug 10 ____________ 87.19 t46. 1931 July 11 to Aug 10 _____________87.16 t46. 2019 July 2 to Aug 1 ______________ 87.16 t48. 2002 B Jun 20or21 to Jul 20or21 __87.10 note, ranks below are +2 from ranks of years not intervals e.g. 1940 is 48th ranked year for its hottest 31d interval t48. 2008 July 8 to Aug 7 _____________ 87.10 50. 1940 July 15 to Aug 14 ____________ 87.06 51. 1931 B Aug 8 to Sep 7 _____________ 87.00 note, ranks below are +3 from ranks of years not intervals e.g. 1937 is 49th ranked year for its hottest 31d interval ... after rank 58 (1949B) lower entries are +4 relative to annual list ... no further B intervals are listed after that as the primary ranking is for top sixty (reached by 63rd in terms of years only) 52. 1937 July 10 to Aug 9 _____________ 86.97 t53. 1870. July 11 to Aug 10 ____________86.90 t53. 1934. June 21, 22 to July 21, 22___86.90 t55. 1900 June 25 to July 25 ___________86.84 t55. 1961 Aug 7 to Sep 6 _______________86.84 t55. 1973 Aug 5 to Sep 4 ______________ 86.84 58. (1949B) June 11 to July 11 __________86.74 (subtract 4 from ranks below to derive annual ranking) 59. 1918 July 15 to Aug 14 _____________ 86.71 t60. 1885 July 6 to Aug 5 ______________ 86.68 t60. 1971 June 16 to July 15 ____________ 86.68 (62. 1887 June 30 to July 30 _________ 86.65) (63. 1997 June 19 to July 19 ___________ 86.61) (64. 2001 July 31 to Aug 30 ___________ 86.58) (65. 1974 July 2 to Aug 1 ______________ 86.55) (66. 1896 July 15 to Aug 14 ___________ 86.48) (67. 1932 July 10 to Aug 9 ____________ 86.48) (68. 1990 July 18 to Aug 17 ___________ 86.42) (t69. 1911 July 2 to Aug 1 ______________ 86.39) (t69. 1917 July 13 or 16 to Aug 12, 15) __86.39) (t69. 1945 June 11 to July 11 ___________86.39) (t69. 1969 Aug 3 to Sep 2 _____________86.39) (t69. 2023 June 29 to July 29 ________ 86.39) (74. 1963 July 13 to Aug 12 ___________ 86.35) (t75. 1878 June 26 to July 26 __________86.32) (t75. 1908 June 20 to July 20 _________ 86.32) (77. 1941 July 10 to Aug 9 _____________86.29) (78. 1972 July 10 to Aug 9 ____________ 86.23) (79. 1935 July 5 to Aug 4 _____________ 86.19) (80. 1933 July 6 to Aug 5 _____________ 86.10) (t81. 1892 July 12 to Aug 11 ___________ 86.03) (t81. 1921 July 2 to Aug 1 ______________86.03) _________________________ As 1953, 1988, 2002 and 1949 have two qualifying separate intervals, first 64 are ranked for 60 leading years. No other B intervals are placed in the above list, there would be more and more of them going down into the 86-87 range. All years with an interval above 86.0 are ranked to include some that had well known heat waves, like 1911 ... they rank lower down because they did not contain sustained heat for 31 days. This is basically the top half of the years, the worst six for lack of heat are 1869 (peak 79.29), 1907 (80.92), 1889 (81.61) and 2000, tied 2004 (81.71), then 1871 (81.81).

I found three others (98+ over four days) ,,, one in 1933 (same dates as 1917, July 30 to Aug 2) 98 102 100 98) and also Aug 28 to 31 1953 (98 99 98 100) which were followed by 97 102, so six over 97 there. And in 1993 July 7-10 ran 98 100 101 102 with 97 on the 11th. 1977 had four at 97+ (July 16-19 ran 98 97 100 102) and 2001 had four at 97+ Aug 7 to 10 (99 99 103 97) ... June 4 1925 ran 99 99 98 96 and Aug 12-15 1944 was 97 102 97 96 (followed by 95 95 96 95). Aug 23 -27 1948 was 95 103 101 100 95.

That's interesting and I think Liberty Bell was wondering if any NYC spells of 98+ are longer than four days from 1917. Are those the records for each location? I haven't looked at data yet to check answer to his question.

1887 peaked at 96F and 1917 had one (100F on July 31, see my previous post also)

Yes, somebody said, 'you know what, we need a machine that can make cold air, so we don't have to haul all of this ice around during hot weather.' Looking back I find these two consecutive 100F days to be the first such case, the next time it happened was in 1926 (July 21-22). Probably 98 100 98 98 from July 30 to Aug 2 1917 was more oppressive however.

You could also add 1887 (thinking of winter 1887-88) which had a very warm July, warmer than 1901. I guess it's not an invariable rule, there was nothing particularly severe about winters 1896-97, or 1953-54, but I would say you could add 1980 to your list because winter 1980-81 featured some extremely cold spells, it just wasn't a very snowy winter and it ended early (second half of Feb 1981 was probably top five in average temp). The summer of 1917 was not all that hot but a spell in late July and early August set a number of records.

The 1911 heat looks like this: July 2 __ 94 75 July 3 __100 77 _ max tied 1898 as record broken by 103F in 1966. ... all mins slightly below records set in 1876 (3rd) and 1908 (4th-6th) July 4 __ 97 77 _ max set record broken by 99F in 1919 (eventual 102F 1949) July 5 __ 97 77 _ max set record broken by 98F in 1919 (tied in 1955) (eventual 101F 1999) July 6 __ 98 77 (0.12") _ max set record tied in 1986 and broken in 1999 (101F) (then 2010 103F) July 7 __ 86 74 July 8 __ 81 70 ... looks like front pushed a little south then rebounded July 9 __ 92 69 July 10__ 99 78 (.02") _ max set record broken by 1936 (tied 1999) of 102F ... min was 1F lower than 1905 record tied 1910 79F, broken by 80F 1993) July 11__ 97 76 _ max set record broken by 98F in 1988 (97F again in 1993) July 12__ 90 78 _ min was 1F lower than 1905 record 79F still record today) July 13 __88 72 _____ It stayed relatively warm all summer without this level of heat, and rainfall picked up steadily through August, 1.52" rain 15th and 1.65" 25th, until record cool daytime values arrived Aug 30 and 31 (highs 62, 59; lows 56, 55) (4.61" rain in 2d) _____ Heat in 1919 followed rapidly some record cool nights June 29 (52F) and June 30 (53F). It was a hot spell of relatively brief duration. July 1 __ 90 60 July 2 __ 91 67 July 3 __ 97 72 July 4 __ 99 74 _ record to 1949 July 5 __ 98 78 _ record max to 1999 (was tied 1955) July 6 __ 89 72 (0.35") The rest of summer 1919 was not particularly hot (August quite cool, including record low 57F on 9th) and featured some heavy rainfalls at times. Sep 8 tied a record of 93F later broken by 97F in 2015. Oct 3 (87F) and Oct 29 (83F) are surviving records set in a warm October. Both 1911 and 1919 were followed by extremely cold Januaries in 1912 and 1920.

Average scores of the regular entrants: Tom 69.3 _ implied average error 1.53 F hudsonvalley21 ... 68.2 (1.6 F) so_whats_happening ... 66.6 (1.68 F) RJay ... 65.4 (1.73 F) (some late pens so avg is really 1.6 F) Scotty Lightning ... 65.2 (1.74 F) wxallannj ... 64.4 (1.78 F) BKViking ... 64.1 (1.8 F) wxdude64 ... 63.5 (1.82 F) DonSutherland ... 63.4 (1.83 F) StormchaserChuck ... 61.6 (1.92 F) RodneyS ... 61.4 (1.93 F) Roger Smith ... 58.7 (2.06 F) Normal ... 55.0 (2.25 F) persistence ... 46 (2.7 F) What this tells us is, our forecast errors range from 1.5 to 2.1 deg on average (slightly larger because a few scores were inflated by max 60) and a random guess against normal would average 2.3 F, using the previous month's data has an average error (or average change) of 2.7 F. Anyone who could maintain a 1.0 F error average would currently be scoring 4200 (and all of us would be lower because there would have been no max 60 scores). Perfect forecasts would currently be scoring 5400.

I think the whole group are fairly close this year, you are 419 points behind the leader and a lot fewer behind middle of pack, but that 419 points is over 54 forecasts made, so an average of 7.8 points per forecast, a differential which implies a forecast error in relative terms of 0.39 F deg. There's more complexity than that but if the leader (Tom) is 0.39 closer on every forecast, that explains the differential. Probably it's really a spectrum of differentials ranging mostly from you being 1.5 better to him being 2.5 better, or similar. It's not a big difference, is it? To make up 419 points you would need two months of very accurate forecasts against the usual consensus here which is often good but not superb (this month overperformed in general). If you had two months where every forecast you made was 1.0 F better you would gain (in relative terms) 18 x 20 points (360). A slight complication is that a few months are scored on a more generous sliding scale if all forecasts are below a raw score of 60 or if the anomaly is bigger than 5 F deg. If you nailed those sorts of months (more likely in winter) you could make up a lot of ground very fast because if one person breaks 60, everyone else is stuck with their raw scores.

The peak was today, July 2nd still holds record highs on both max and min side (100, 82). The over-90 portion of the 1901 heat wave ran from June 26 to July 3. The highs and lows for those eight days were June 26 ___ 91 72 _ max was a record tied with three previous years until 1904,1909 tied 93, then 1923 had 94, 1943 and 49 96F, and 1952 100F (96F 1963 warmest since, 93F warmest recent 2003 and 2024. June 27 ___ 91 74 June 28 __ 93 75 June 29 __ 95 76 June 30 __ 95 60 _ max a record tied in 1931, broken 97F 1945 (eventual 99F 1964) July 1 __ 100 78 _ max is a record, min was a record until 79F in 2018 July 2 __ 100 82 (.03 in) _ both records today, max shared with 1966 July 3 ___ 94 76 (.31 in) suspect the 94 was early and it dropped during the day After 84/71 on the 4th, a record 3.07 inches of rain fell on the 5th (86/75) and 1.26 more on the 6th (77/74). It's pretty easy to visualize a stalled front being responsible for the heavy rainfalls. Then a second less severe heat wave lasted from July 14 to 24 (86 to 93 max, highest 21st). Several overnight lows were 76 to 78 F in that warm spell. A record low max of 69F was observed on July 26 then it warmed back to 92, 93 on July 29-30. Aug and Sep were close to average with a mix of warm and cool spells. July 1901 had a mean of 77.7 F and was 4th warmest July 1869-1901 and is now t39 of 157. Factoring in an increasing heat island it ranks 27th.

Alligators falling from the sky in thunderstorms ... I wonder how that would look in a METAR? KCHS __ 29/27 3125G38 TRW+ Alligators all quads

Also for history buffs the severe 1901 and 1911 heat waves were nearing peak intensity. They were both comparable to 1966 in regional impacts. 1901 set records in the brief NYC data to that time for four days including June 30 to July 2, and still holds the last two (sharing today with 1966). A record 95F on June 30 was tied in 1931, broken in 1945 (97F) and that was again broken in 1964 (99F). The 1911 heat wave was well into the 100s in a lot of places, NYC must have been somewhat reduced by sea breezes because its highest values were near 100F. Toronto had 103F on July 3, 1911. The NYC data show records set on July 3, 4, 5, 6, 10 and 11, but none survived, broken by 1966, 1919, 1919, 1999, 1936 and 1988. Despite the smaller urban heat island, these heat waves had some stifling warm nights. For July 1, 1901 the record set was 78F not surpassed until 79F in 2018. For July 2, 1901 the record set (82F) still stands for the date. In 1911 the minima were all near 77F and were not daily records even then but there was little relief for ten days of heat. The 1966 heat wave(s) broke or tied five daily maxima, and did not set any high minima although four readings were 1F lower than existing records, some of which have since been broken. These were all in the high 70s. Even the 1936 heat wave did not set any daily records for high minima but when it only drops to high 70s after mid-100s, that isn't enough time to ventilate scorching interiors without A/C. Further inland the 1936 heat wave was more prolonged and had even worse overnight conditions, Toronto had lows close to 80F during it and had three consecutive 105F readings (July 8 to 10). Even in southern Manitoba and northwestern Ontario the 1936 heat wave had readings near 110F and overnight lows above 80F. Of course in North Dakota it was close to 120F in that unprecedented event. Western Canada returned to the same level of heat the next summer but that 1937 heat was somewhat modified when it spread east (even so it hit 100F in NYC).

Corn sweat. I recall dew points near or even above 90F in Iowa in summer of 1995.

I suppose philosophically you could argue, in the 1930s the central part of the U.S. was a dust bowl, it has been rescued from that condition and probably won't entirely return to it, so highs set in the 1930s all around the country should be modified for "climate continuity." But the fact is, those were real temperatures experienced by real people. Just as Central Park with all its trees is now the new reality there. It is what it is. We can compare values with that knowledge and form conclusions about what they mean about the "real climate." As to the new normal of interior western heat waves, that is not being caused by terrain modification (the terrain is the same as always) but by a weaker upper flow at those latitudes as the jet stream migrates north on average further into n.w. Canada. This is why we're seeing more frequent super heat waves in the west. It did happen in the past too but not as frequently. As one person told me, a national forest in Nevada is where you can see a tree from the shade of another tree. Lightning finds it pretty easy to pick those trees off one at a time, I've actually seen it happen. 98F here today, but the dew point in the 50s makes it relatively tolerable.

<<< July daily records for NYC 1869-2024 >>> (I know, trees, shade, blah blah) Notes: temps in brackets with low mins are that day's max if it wasn't the daily low max. 2d highest rainfalls are previous day and day reported ... July 1 would include June 30. if marked * are only observed on day (example 2.80" July 3, 1930, July 2 was dry). if marked ** were only from previous day, reporting day was dry (example 3.13" on July 7, 1884 provided 2d record July 7-8). DATE ____ High max ___ High min _____ Low max ____ Low min __________Max prec (r) _ Max 2d rain _ notes Jul 01 ___100 1901 ____ 79 2018 _______ 70 1869,71,88 _52 1943 (74) ______2.17 1933 ___ 3.71 1984 Jul 02 ___100 1901,66 _ 82 1901 _______ 67 1891 _____ 56 1888, 2011 ____1.79 1914 ___ 2.41 1914 Jul 03 ___103 1966 ____ 82 2002 _______64 1870,1914 __54 1933 (65) ______2.80 1930 ___ 2.80 1930* Jul 04 ___102 1949 ____ 81 2002 _______ 62 1978 _____55 1986 (77) ______ 1.76 1981 ___ 3.19 1967 (2.08+1.11) 2.91" 2d 1978 Jul 05 ___101 1999 ____ 82 1999 _______ 62 1882 _____ 53 1979 (69) ______ 3.07 1901 ___ 3.07 1901* Jul 06 ___103 2010 ____ 83 1999 _______ 61 1956 _____ 54 1979 (78) ______ 1.97 1896 ___ 4.33 1901 Jul 07 ___100 2010 ____ 84 1908 _______71 1914,43,87 _56 1914 __________ 3.13 1984 ___ 3.14 1984 Jul 08 ___100 1993 ____ 80 1993 _______ 66 2005 ____ 56 1894 (67) ______ 2.27 2021 ___ 3.13 1984** Jul 09 ___106 1936 ____80 1981^_______ 63 1964 _____54 1963 (78) ______ 2.06 2021 ___ 4.33 2021 Jul 10 ___102 1936,93__80 1993 _______ 65 1917 _____ 55 1890 (70) ______ 2.54 2020 ___ 2.33 2021__(2.32 1997) Jul 11 ___ 98 1988 _____ 79 1988 _______ 64 1914 _____ 57 1893, 98 _______ 1.94 1940 ___ 3.30 2020 __ 2.72" 2d 1874 (1.94+0.78) Jul 12 ___ 99 1966 ____ 79 1905 _______ 67 1990 _____ 57 1926 ___________ 2.68 1937 ___ 3.09 1937 Jul 13 ___101 1966 ____ 79 1876 _______ 67 1964 _____ 54 1888 (70) _____ 3.16 1972 ___ 3.16 1972* __ 2.83" 2d 1897 (0.54+2.29) Jul 14 ___100 1954 ____ 78 1952 _______ 73 2017^____ 58 1877,88,1926 __ 1.47 1908 ___ 3.16 1972** Jul 15 ___102 1995 ____ 84 1995 _______ 67 1926 _____57 1930 (78) 14th __ 1.80 1975 ___ 1.98 1975 tied 1.98 2000 (0.59+1.39) Jul 16 ___ 99 1980 ____ 80 1952 _______ 70 1933 _____ 56 1926, 46 _______ 1.50 1871 ___ 2.16 1926 (0.78+1.38) Jul 17 ___100 1953 ____ 82 1870 _______ 72 1992 _____57 1892 (76) ______ 3.13 1995 ___ 3.16 1995 __ 2.91 1877 Jul 18 ___101 1953 ____ 81 1900,2013 __ 66 1962 _____ 57 1925 (77) ______ 1.81 2022 ___ 3.36 1995 Jul 19 ___102 1977 ____ 83 2013 _______ 69 2000 _____57 1924 (77) 18th __ 1.82 1919 ___ 2.67 1919 Jul 20 ___101 1980 ____ 82 2015,19 ____ 69 1869 _____55 1890 (70) ______ 1.97 1889 ___ 2.77 1919 __ 2.22 1988 (0.94+1.28) Jul 21 ___104 1977 ____ 82 1980 _______ 66 1956 _____55 1890 (73) ______ 2.26 1983 ___ 2.99 1988 (1.28+1.71) Jul 22 ___104 2011 ____ 84 2011 _______ 69 1958 _____58 1871, 90 _______ 1.86 1880 ___ 2.50 1896 (1.06+1.44) Jul 23 ___100 2011 ____ 83 2011 _______70 1996^_____58 1871,90 _________ 2.41 1953 ___ 2.99 1946 __ also 2.70 1938 (0.30+2.40) Jul 24 ___ 97 1999,2010 _80 2010 _______ 67 1904 _____56 1893 (74) _____ 3.75 1997 ___3.75 1997 __ also 2.73 1938 (2.40+0.33) Jul 25 ___ 97 1999 ____ 80 1885 _______ 68 2013 _____57 1953 (79) ______ 1.64 1926 ___ 4.62 1997 __ 2.49 1975 (1.06+1.43) Jul 26 ___ 98 1940 ____ 79 1979 _______ 69 1901,2000_55 1920 (75) _____ 3.24 2000 ___ 3.24 1997*__ 2.91 1872 (1d) Jul 27 ___ 98 1940,63__78 1995 _______ 68 1897,2000_55 1920 (79) ______2.65 1889 ___ 4.37 2000 Jul 28 ___ 97 1999^____ 80 2020 _______68 1897 _____57 1903 (72 27th) _ 3.11 1913 ___ 3.11 1913*__ 3.06 1902 (1d) Jul 29 ___ 99 1949 ____ 79 1995, 2002 _ 69 1884 _____59 1914 (69 28th) _ 3.47 1980 ___ 3.47 1980* __ 3.14 1913 2d Jul 30 ___ 98 1988^____80 2002 _______ 68 1881,1914_57 1956 (75) ______ 3.56 1960 ___ 3.64 1971 (0.64+3.00) Jul 31 ___102 1933 ____ 82 1917 _______ 65 1923 _____ 57 1895, 1914 ______ 2.29 1889 ___ 3.56 1960**_ 3.13" 1971 2d ^ -- - - - - - - - - - -- trivia ... ^ min with the 1936 all-time record high max was 77. 1937 had 79 same date. Despite this, hundreds died of heat prostration in the 1936 heat wave. ^ low max tied July 14 in 1884, 1960, 1963, 2017 note 18th: 2022 replaced 2012 (1.72") ^ low max tied July 23 in 1894, 1909, 1969, 1992, 1996. ^ max for July 28 tied 1892, 1931, 1949, 1999. ^ max for July 30 tied 1917, 1933, 1940, 1988. ^ 2d rainfall July 30-31 3.00" 1918 (2.00+1.00) __________________________________________________________________

It would be similar because I tend to post estimated scoring around the 20th then open the thread for new forecasts, edit the scoring ... but it's not that difficult to find the scoring posts, they are usually before the first forecasts for the current month. I'll go back to the old system (this is the only year I have done it this way) if we keep going into 2026. By the way, all scoring is updated, NYC has "missing" for 30th in CF6, but Don posted on NYC forum that the anomaly was +1.2 and that seems to fit the 1.0 to 29th and daily departure on 30th climate report of +5 ... if I see anything different in days ahead assuming they update that CF6, I will edit the scoring. This was one of the highest scoring months in a while, everyone broke 600 (even Normal and Persistence). Tom with 788 probably has a new p.b., I track that in the Dec 2024 thread at present and haven't gone in there to update yet. That will all migrate to Dec 2025 eventually. The highest score ever in 12 years of contests has been 810. I think several in the contest would have broken that using my ORD forecast (or if I used all eight of yours except ORD). Probably what will make it easier for people in general will be if I migrate scoring tables to end of new forecasts (they are already at beginning of new forecasts). I will do that but I don't think it's that hard to find them, they are generally a lot uglier than the rest of the thread!

Calling all Vikings. ... Just polishing up the scoring for June and going into the update of annual scoring but I can see from how close the June scores are to each other that there cannot be huge changes in the annual contest, and basically, it's looking very competitive especially given the fact that previous years' usual leaders are a little back of the current leaders. I suspect it's going to be a fully-engaged battle for the title this year (if anyone cares about it that much).

The historical highlights missed the biggest event on this date, namely the peak of the Pacific NW - BC heat dome in 2021. On June 30, 2021 it was 44 C (112 F) here, breaking our all-time record by probably five degrees. It was 49 C (120 F) at Lytton BC, a hotspot every summer but in this case, it burned to the ground at 5 p.m. due to a train spark induced brush fire fanned by the hot up-valley winds. The town (formerly home to 1,200 people) remains largely in ruins now as local governments wrangle about who will pay what to rebuild it, and native groups request careful handling of possible archaeological remnants. Most of the buildings were reduced to ground slabs and scattered debris, if you went in there now it would look like any other ghost town, but its population want to restore it. I don't have the U.S. numbers handy but I'm pretty sure the peak of the heat wave was on June 28th to July 1st at all recording sites. (later edit, 116F at Portland on June 28, and 108F at SEA-TAC ... 117 F at Pendleton and Omak on June 29 and 116F in Spokane) ... There were hundreds of heat prostration deaths in the region. Various locations in BC, WA and OR got well above 110 F, coming close to all-time records if not breaking them (1898 had some of those, 1941 had others). Looks like the severe heat broke down on the coast by the 29th but remained inland to July 1-2, I recall it sort of fizzled out gradually in the first week of July and then the severe smoke episode began later in July as fires began to spread through BC and WA. We were under 594 dm thickness here for several days, so this was just like the heat they get routinely in Las Vegas and Phoenix, and it felt the same, heat radiating into your face but no cooling sprays along the sidewalks like they have in Vegas (I managed to hit Las Vegas for their August record high of 118 F in 2011, just on my way to much less torrid places higher up in southern Utah but that heat wave was very similar to the heat dome, only where it was supposed to be).

+1.7 __ +1.5 __ +1.3 __ +1.2 __ +2.0 __ +2.0 ___ +0.3 __ +1.5 __ +0.7 June scoring is back in thread, everyone did well so there won't be big changes in the annual scoring race which I will update in another "back in thread" post set aside to take on that work (before all July forecasts except wxdude64's early submission) ...

Just my usual reminder to NYC forecast contest regulars to get a forecast in on Monday 30th. And have a great 4th of July everybody.

Today's min of 77F at NYC was 1F off the 2021 record which replaced 1870 (77F) so it was tied second warmest for the date.

Bonus coverage, here's a list of benchmark record high minimum values (for NYC) ... I reverse them at the point where the trend line reverses in early February ... (going up) 51F __ Feb 5, 1991 (mildest in period Jan 28 to Feb 15) 56F __ Feb 16, 2023 58F __ Feb 24, 2018 63F __ Mar 10, 2016 66F __ Mar 31, 1998 68F __ Apr 9, 1991 70F __ Apr 14, 2023 74F __ Apr 17, 2002 76F __ Apr 18, 2002 77F __ June 1, 1895 78F __ June 4, 1943 79F __ June 10, 1984 80F __ June 23, 2025 81F __ June 24, 2025 82F __ July 2, 1901 83F __ July 6, 1999 84F __ July 7, 1908 (84F also July 15, 1995 and July 22, 2001) 84F __ Aug 14, 1908 (heading down now) 81F __ Aug 29, 2018 79F __ Sep 7, 1881 78F __ Sep 11, 1983 77F __ Sep 23, 1970 75F __ Oct 5, 1898 72F __ Oct 8, 2017 71F __ Oct 10, 2018 69F __ Oct 25, 1908 67F __ Nov 2, 1971 66F __ Nov 6, 2015, 2022 64F __ Nov 11, 2002, 2020 63F __ Dec 24, 2015 59F __ Jan 4, 1950 56F __ Jan 14, 1932 54F __ Jan 15, 1995 53F __ Jan 27, 1916 (and back to 51F Feb 5, 1991). ... very few of these are concurrent with high max benchmarks (Mar 2016, Apr 2002, Sep 1881). ... the midsummer situation is different, a plateau of four equal values, not one peak as in July 1936.