Welcome to American Weather

Roger Smith

Members
  • Content count

    2,477
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by Roger Smith

  1. Cold air is very entrenched and there is no warm advection taking place even over the waters south of Long Island, so would expect rapid development of a coastal center around 15z with primary low nw of ALB, that coastal would track across s.e. MA into Gulf of Maine, and with the limited warming time available, moderate snow likely over much of New England tomorrow, think amounts will over-perform model guidance, 8-12" VT and Hudson valley, parts of w MA, 4-8" most of CT and central MA even past ORH and into NH with 6-10" amounts common for NH and ME. Mixing near a BOS-EWB line and all rain southeast of that, some mixing east of Portland in coastal Maine but perhaps limited to outer coasts. I just jumped into this forum discussion but I have been following the low closely for 2 days for friends in Ontario and it has all the hallmarks of a rapid coastal pressure jumper. But the Texas Tower buoy is currently showing no warming of surface layers from the 14 C ocean and -2 C dewpoints (south wind quite light). Suggests that the warm sector is going to be well east of there after the coastal forms. Possible freezing rain situation for a narrow band slightly inland from coast BOS to PWM, would say I-95 and 10-20 miles west perhaps, but oscillating with periods of snow. Yeah, Quebec City, lovely town in the winter, you should go to the Winter Carnival in February. Or any time.
  2. Snowfall 2017-18 contest -- Table of Forecasts Copied from the November thread with amounts to date added ... those will be updated whenever new snow appears at the nine locations. FORECASTER _________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV so_whats_happening___ 22.0 _ 38.0 _ 63.0 __ 31.0 _ 36.0 __ 85.0 __ 53.0 _ 14.0 _ 96.0 Tom ________________ 19.6 _ 43.8 _63.1 __ 59.4 _ 53.4 _ 103.8 __ 71.5 __ 9.4 _109.3 Roger Smith __________19.5 _ 40.0 _ 60.0 __ 33.0 _ 45.0 __ 80.0 __ 55.0 _ 17.5 _110.0 dmillz25 _____________ 17.0 _ 41.0 _ 57.0 __ 67.0_ 70.0_ 105.0 __ 60.0 _ 15.0 _ 96.0 wxdude64 ____________16.3 _ 27.7 _ 37.5 __ 54.8 _ 55.5 _ 102.2 __ 77.6 _ 11.2 _ 99.5 hudsonvalley21 _______ 15.5 _ 42.0 _ 57.0 __ 47.0 _ 51.0 __ 91.0 __ 64.0 _ 10.0 _ 89.0 DonSutherland.1 ______ 15.1 _ 34.3 _ 53.4 __ 48.9 _ 54.2 _ 112.6 __ 55.8 __ 7.3 _ 96.7 H2OTown__wx ________14.4 _ 23.2 _ 41.2 __ 44.4 _ 38.7 __ 93.4 __ 40.6 __ 5.4 _ 67.1 ___ Consensus _____14.4 _33.7 _53.4 __48.9 _51.0 __95.8 __55.8 _10.0 _96.0 Stebo _______________ 12.5 _ 33.7 _ 50.0 __ 50.0 _ 57.3 __ 65.0 __ 50.5 __ 7.0 _ 72.5 wxallannj ____________ 12.3 _ 27.0 _ 33.0 __ 38.0 _ 43.0 __ 53.0 __ 58.0 _ 19.0 _ 57.0 BKViking _____________11.0 _ 33.0 _ 70.0 __ 40.0 _ 50.0 _ 110.0 __ 77.0 _ 10.0 _110.0 RJay ________________ 10.0 _ 40.0 _ 70.0 __ 50.0 _ 55.0 _120.0 __80.0 __ 6.0 _ 105.0 SD __________________10.0 _ 23.0 _ 45.0 __ 55.0 _ 67.0 _ 110.0 __ 85.0 __4.0 _ 87.0 RodneyS ______________8.1 _ 25.0 _ 35.8 __ 52.4 _ 45.7 __ 95.8 __ 52.1 _ 12.5 _ 57.0 SnoSki14 _____________ 2.0 __ 5.0 _ 35.0 __ 40.0 _ 45.0 __ 80.0 __ 55.0 _ 30.0_ 75.0 Amounts to date ____ 2.0 __4.6 __6.1 ___2.1 __6.1 __12.0 ___2.8 __0.4 __8.4 _____________________________________________________________________________ 15 entrants, the consensus is the median value (8th ranked). Heaviest snowfall forecasts for each location are shown in bold. Least snowfall forecasts are shown in italics.
  3. The annual contest has tightened up somewhat as some of the chase pack were closer than the leaders to the unexpected (by all) negative anomalies in the east (at least, that's how it looks at present) ... So it's a showdown for top spots in the contest(s) and the same forecast challenge as always ... Predict the temperature anomalies (F) relative to 1981-2010 averages (Normal) for December 2017 for these nine locations: DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA (also the usual penalties, 1% for every 2h late up to 18z 2nd, after which it's 1% per hour to the end of 5th.) Note from administration: your host will be moving house at end of November and it's quite possible I will be unable to access the internet for more than a few minutes at a time until about the 5th, so don't expect to find a table of forecasts or November scoring totally updated as quickly as is my usual custom. All will get back to normal eventually, I hope. (Nov 29 edit with update _ looks very very cold to me in Midwest) My shot in the dark will be --2.0 _ --2.8 _ --3.5 ___ --8.0 _ --2.0 __ +2.0 ___ +6.0 _ +3.5 _ +4.5
  4. The contest is now closed to further entries, we have 15 forecasts. In general terms, the forecasts call for slightly below average total snowfall as shown in the following table which lists the contest average (blue), 1986-2015 average (green), and contest max and min entries (bold type). Other entries between max and min are shown in their approximate positions relative to these by two-letter codes of names of the 13 remaining entrants. These are expanded to user names at the bottom of the graph where you will also find each forecaster's 20-station total forecast. That rather than alphabetical order is used to generate the list of forecasters. ConA is contest average (blue). A color code keeps that distinct from the 1986-2015 average (8615) which is aligned in one column at center of graph. The actual positions of MIN and MAX values are also moved around somewhat to reflect how wide a spread they present against the 1986-2015 average. When lined up with the titles, MIN is 50 per cent and MAX is 150 per cent of 1986-2015 average. Some max values are not to scale (would be off the page). The scale otherwise is as close as I could make it while separating the letters to make it readable. Two or more names with commas between them have same forecasts. During the course of the winter I will move "actual" in red into this table and keep it moving to the right as totals mount up (we hope or maybe not). Those amounts are already in this graph for stations that have seen snowfall so far. (next to station names). YXU has not been updating snowfall amounts yet, hoping to solve that (we found the data available last year). For the time being I will estimate their totals based on any clues available, but I hope to get an accurate total at the end of the contest. (just read on the subforum that observers may not be assigned this winter but there may be automated amounts, we'll perhaps have to judge the contest without YXU but anyway will estimate for now). Table of forecasts for 2017-18 snowfall contest LOC _ to date _ MIN (-50%) ______________________8615 avg __ ConA ___________________MAX (+50%)____ APN __ 5.6_____________ 72 RS_ DM VP CI CM ST SP 80.4 TH MA 85.3 _ HA MI DA IT IW,CY 105 ORD __ 2.1___________ 27.6 DM_ CM,RS TH _HA ST 38.1 SP,CI,VP 40.0 CY _ MA MI DA ______ IW ___ IT 65 CLE _ 1.4 _45.3 DM CI ST CM TH IT VP RS 59.2 HA MI 67.2 CY SP,IW MA ___ DA 89.7 CMH _ 1.5 14.1 DM_CM ST RS,MA __TH_25.1 CI MI VP 28.4 SP,IT,HA DA CY IW 34 DTW ___ 5.9 _______________30.5 DM_ VP RS,SP CM 44.8 CI,HA MA CY TH 49.3 _IW _ST MI ___ DA _______ IT 83 FWA _ 1.3 _______________ 22.2 TH __CM RS DM MA 34.0 HA SP 36.9 DA MI VP ST,CI,IW CY IT 47 GRR __ 6.6 ________________57.8 DM_ ST TH CM CI 77.1 SP RS,HA 80.3 MA DA MI CY, VP IW __ IT 106 GRB _ 2.3_37 VP TH DM CM,RS CY DA CI SP 52.1 ST MI 54.2 HA __ IW MA _________________________ IT 84 IND _ 0.4 ___ 11 RS DM _ CM,CY HA MA,ST DA 23.5 MI 25.9 SP TH CI, VP IW IT 35 LSE _2.8_31.7 DM RS VP,CI,CY,ST DA TH43.7SP,HA,CM46.1 MI _MA IW _______________________________ IT 81 YXU _ 3.0 __________ 55 CM VP _CY,CI MA ST,TH DM 75.7 SP 77.9 RS,HA IW DA __ MI __________________ IT 145 SDF _ Tr ______7 CY_ MA ST,CI DM TH RS MI CM 13.1_13.9 IW,SP,HA DA ____ VP _____________________________ IT 29 MQT _ 38.1__ 142 CI_ ST DM CM RS TH VP MA 192.4_199.8 SP HA IT IW DA MI CY 233 MKE _ 1.4 _35 DM,RS VP CM CY TH MA ST,CI 45.9DA SP49.2 HA MI __ IW _____________ IT 71 MSP _ 4.0__29 CI__ST VP RS DM CY HA,CM 48.1 DA SP 50.6 MA MI _ IW TH _______________________ IT 87 MLI _ Tr _14 DM__RS CY,HA, CM VP TH DA30.9 CI ST SP33.5 MI __ MA IW _________________________ IT 58 PAH _ Tr __4 CI __ ST _MA ______ TH _ HA __ MI _ CM 9.2 _ 10.9 RS,CY SP,IW DM ___ DA ___________ VP _______ IT 23 PIA _ Tr _8.9 DM___RS __ ST,HA CM _MA VP 24.0=SP 24.9 MI TH CY DA _ IW __________ CI ____ IT 40 STL 10 HA,CM_MA,DM ST TH RS MI IW,VP DA SP 18.1_18.4 __ CY CI ____________________________________>> IT 52 YYZ _ 1.7 _________27 IW ____ RS __ TH __ CI,CM,SP 42.5 HA DM ST,MA 46.8 CY DA VP _ MI ______________>> IT 104 (STL = Tr) Forecasters and snow totals, tie-breakers code _ FORECASTER __ SNOW TOTAL ______T-1 __ T-2 __ T-3 DM ____ dmc76 ________ 787.6 __________ 2.3 __ 3.8 __ 6.8 CM ____ cmillzz ________ 841.0 __________ 4.2 __ 8.2 _ 15.0 RS ____ Roger Smith ____ 851.0 __________ 6.5 __ 3.5 _ 17.2 ST ____ Stebo __________882.5 __________ 7.0 __ 8.0 _ 13.5 CI ____ Central Illinois ___ 883.5 __________ 9.0 _11.0 __ 9.5 TH ____ Thomp2mp _____ 915.2 __________13.1 _ 4.5 _ 18.0 VP ____ VPBob21 _______ 943.0 ___________ 6.5 _13.6 _ 9.9 HA ____ Hawkeye_wx ___ 995.0 __________ 12.0 __ 9.0 _13.0 MA ____ Madwx ________ 999.5 __________ 10.2 __ 6.3 _ 9.2 c avg __ Contest average _1003.5 __________ 8.6 __ 7.7 _13.3 SP ____ Slow poke ______1012.0 __________ 8.0 __ 8.0 __ 8.0 8615 _1986-2015 avg _1013.9 ________ 8.5 __8.6_10.2 CY ____ Cyclone77 ______ 1052.0 _________ 6.4 __ 5.0 _16.8 MI ____ michsnowfreak __ 1111.0 _________ 9.8 __ 9.0 _12.1 DA ____ DAFF __________ 1128.3 ________ 10.2 __ 8.1 _13.3 IW ____ IWXwx _________1145.0 _________ 8.5 _ 11.0 _16.5 IT ____ IndTenn ________ 1506.0 _________15.0 __ 6.0 _20.0
  5. The contest follows the same format as the past two winters. Predict the total seasonal snowfall (some may have already fallen at some locations) using the following table as a guide (1986-2015 average values and the past two seasons are shown) ... please use the entry form below this table. Note there are three tie-breakers involving monthly amounts at ORD, IND and DTW. LOCATION _______________ 1986-2015 ____ 2015-16 ____ 2016-17 Alpena, MI (APN) _____________ 80.4 _______ 88.8 ________66.4 Chicago, IL (ORD) ____________ 38.1 _______ 31.2 ________26.1 Cleveland, OH (CLE) ___________67.2 _______32.8 ________ 37.3 Columbus, OH (CMH) __________28.4 _______ 17.1 ________ 9.3 Detroit, MI (DTW) ____________ 44.8 _______ 35.3 _______ 37.9 Fort Wayne, IN (FWA) _________ 34.0 _______ 20.0 _______ 18.5 Grand Rapids, MI (GRR) ________77.1 _______ 61.1 _______ 60.1 Green Bay, WI (GRB) __________54.2 _______ 50.0 _______ 53.2 Indianapolis, IN (IND) _________ 25.9 _______ 13.3 ________9.7 La Crosse, WI (LSE) ___________46.1 _______ 40.3 _______ 42.2 London, ON (YXU) ____________ 75.7 _______ 65.2 _______ 66.1 Louisville, KY (SDF) ___________ 13.9 _______ 14.9 ________ 2.7 Marquette, MI (MQT) _________ 199.8 ______ 160.9 ______ 154.0 Milwaukee, WI (MKE) __________49.2 ________39.1 _______ 37.6 Minneapolis, MN (MSP) ________ 50.6_________36.7 _______32.0 Moline, IL (MLI) ______________ 33.5 ________ 24.1 _______22.4 Paducah, KY (PAH)_____________ 9.2 ________ 12.1 ________1.2 Peoria, IL (PIA) _______________24.9 ________ 15.3 _______13.9 St. Louis, MO (STL) ___________ 18.4 ________ 10.9 ________3.2 Toronto, ON (YYZ) ____________ 42.5 ________ 25.9 _______32.6 ------------------------------- --------------------------------------- --------------------------------------- ENTRY FORM APN __ ORD __ CLE __ CMH __ DET __ FWA __ GRR __ GRB __ IND __ LSE __ YXU __ SDF __ MQT __ MKE __ MSP __ MLI __ PAH __ PIA __ STL __ YYZ __ Tiebreakers 1. December 2017 snowfall ORD (8.5" normal) 2. January 2018 snowfall IND (8.6" normal) 3. February 2018 snowfall DTW (10.2" normal) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- If you want to see individual years in the 1986-2015 period, check the 2015-16 contest thread (several pages into the archives now), post number one there has a table of the 30 years in the period used. Entries will be accepted until end of the day Thursday, Nov 30th (2359 CST). You can edit entries before that time as the table of entries will be done in early December (using an excel table format). Good luck !! Late entries (Dec 1 to 7) will be scored but cannot place higher than 6th, enter for the fun of it if you want though. Entries that appear in the thread after Dec 8 will not be scored. (This was later extended to end of Dec 10 to encourage more entries -- contest is now underway and closed to further entries).
  6. Last day for entries in Lakes/OV Snowfall contest winter 2017-18, thread is just down the menu a little. Deadline at midnight CST tonight.
  7. First look at the anomalies and forecasts, 7d based on NWS forecasts and 8 to 16 days based on GFS output. The projections are where the anomaly will sit at that point, not forecasts of anomalies in those intervals. _________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA _______ (7d) _____ +4.2 _+5.4 _+3.5 ___ +7.4 _+7.7 _+2.5 ____+6.1 _+7.3 _+0.4 ______( p14d) ____ --2.5 _--2.3 _--3.2 ___ --1.5 _--3.0 _--2.5 ____+7.0 _+5.3 _+2.0 ______( p24d) ____ --1.5 _--2.0 _--2.5 ___ --2.5 _--1.8 _--0.8 ____+3.0 _+2.5 _+1.0
  8. and ... they have the Statue of Liberty now as well. apparently. MACA (Make America Cold Again)
  9. The New Years blizzard of 2018 will bring great joy and euphoria -- somewhere. I am hoping it will be everywhere in the eastern U.S., big energy peak rumbling into cold dome spells snowstorm. You heard it here first, 15-30 inches of white gold, Jan 1-2 or within period Dec 30 to Jan 4 margin of error. (5" DCA)
  10. Friendly reminder, this is inches not cms
  11. Major cold intrusions starting already into central regions, looks now like my timing was too gradual on the development of broad troughing by January, and this opens the door to a major east coast snowstorm with that energy peak Jan 1-3. This could turn into a classic cold winter pattern for eastern-central regions if it holds. With 1933-34 as one analogue, severe cold was interrupted in January but both December and February had record lows. Perhaps that will be a similar outcome, but looking at this major energy peak Jan 1-3 as an important foundation for the main part of the winter season following.
  12. I've been reading various long-range forecasts posted on this forum and while I see certain points of agreement with my outlook, I think it's fair to say that I am expecting a rather different outcome towards the end especially. My methodology is to find analogues in the data set I have compiled for Toronto and then extend out the analogues from whatever data existed for other parts of North America (as Toronto goes back to 1840, this leaves some gaps in the far west especially). There is a theory behind my technique which basically has a foundation in proposed interactions between variations in the Solar System Magnetic Field (modulations of solar wind, basically) and earth's atmosphere. I have attempted to focus on the usual climate signals that most forecasters use in their work but I continue to assume that these signals will be partially if not totally predicted through the technique (in other words, they are built into the analogue sets that the method employs). The one exception to that would be solar variability but I feel that solar activity levels are not that good an indicator year to year, they have more utility in decade-to-decade forecasting. We are clearly in a period of reduced solar activity compared to the 20th century but with long lag times of response as shown with the Dalton minimum, and year-to-year variability also shown in that era, I am not basing any of my forecast on low solar activity. The first point that I considered as a cross-check against the index values was that the autumn saw a rather rare pattern of cool September, warm October and cold November(or so it appears). The best analogues for that include (in order of correlation) 1932-33, 1879-80, 1854-55, 1894-95, 1858-59, 2007-08, 1995-96 (yeah baby), 1951-52, 1920-21, 1882-83, 1971-72, 1903-04, 1900-01, 1950-51, 1947-48, 1910-11, 1914-15, and 1871-72. This is not meant to imply that these specific signal analogues are the best analogues overall, but from the overall forecast derived it would appear that 1995-96 and 1971-72 may be leading analogues, cannot be as sure about 1854-55 with no western data. Forecast overview It is expected that anomalous ridging will develop near the Pacific coast with a cut-off low at the base of a sharp trough expected to lie north-south around 95W. The east coast will be in a mild southwest flow much of December and part of January with potential for a rapid collapse of that in favor of an extended central to eastern trough with a depressed jet stream. This will allow the current November cold pattern to fade out over the east in December, perhaps not so extensively that occasional coastal storms bring moderate snowfalls, but eventually a mid-December to early January regime of strong southwest flow from Texas to the Great Lakes will develop and it could be very mild at times east of the storm track with frequent snowstorms of blizzard intensity for the Midwest and plains states. During all of this phase, very cold air will dominate western Canada and the interior U.S. west, sometimes pushing as far south as northwest Mexico. Some time around Jan 5-10 this pattern will shift slightly east but will also see a lengthening out of the trough so that it still drops well south into Texas but then has a secondary low height anomaly near Maine and New Brunswick. This will force the storm track to run mostly offshore but with periodic lake cutters in the mix. The very cold air in western Canada will make more and more progress in detached arctic highs that track into the northeast U.S. The intensity of the western Canada cold will create numerous opportunities for snow and freezing rain storms through December and January in cities from Portland to Seattle and Vancouver. California can expect a winter of frequent low elevation rainstorms, mountain snows and periodic freezes between the storms. Even Arizona may not entirely escape the unseasonable western cold and Phoenix may see a bit of snow for the first time in several years, heavy snow is likely in Flagstaff and parts of northern New Mexico. This expanding trough will bring a stormy January and a very cold February to many parts of the eastern U.S. and Ontario-Quebec, and a milder than average trend in eastern NS and NL. There will be persistent blocking over Greenland and a mild southeast flow into the eastern Canadian arctic at times, remnants of these milder frontal systems will drop south as weak arctic reinforcements across Hudson Bay and northwest Ontario. There is potential in all of this for one or two large snowstorms to hit the northeast U.S. and the mid-Atlantic states. One energy peak around Jan 2 to 4 may be more of a transitional period and could see the last of the late December regime's mild southwesterly events, but with any luck the transition could be underway enough to make this an east coast snowstorm event. Perhaps more likely is that it would be a Midwest snowstorm followed by the full blast of wintry weather across the Great Lakes into the northeast. Then the best opportunities for east coast snowstorms would appear to be around Jan 16-18 and Jan 28 to 31. By February, I expect the storm track to be offshore so that places like s.e. VA and Delmarva to eastern New England may cash in with their biggest snowfalls of the winter. Some very cold outbreaks can be expected by February and with an active lake effect month in January snow pack should be heavy in upstate NY and northwest New England which will promote intense radiational cooling in these strong arctic highs. For Europe, I am expecting a somewhat bland start to the winter followed by an increasing tendency to cold and snow through January then a gradual return to the bland and mild scenario in February. The main point of uncertainty, I believe, is how long into January the very mild regime persists before the transition to very cold, some analogues have seen it persisting well into January (for example 1950), but the overall index values show that the trend is sharply downward by January 7th to 10th. The Jan 1996 snowstorm hit a somewhat later energy peak (from full moon and northern max) but despite the 3-4 day forward displacement of that peak this winter, it may produce, odds are that it will be more of an inland event with the Midwest and Great Lakes in a better location to cash in on the thermal gradient expected around then. I would expect the "big storm" of the eastern winter season to be one of the two later January peaks. Energy peak analysis for this winter favors intense storm development at times with some 5-7 day intervals of low energy indicating good potential for strong arctic high pressure formation west-central regions and several days maintaining over the eastern regions. So especially towards the end of winter, I am looking for a classic pattern of coastal storms separated by long cold spells.
  13. You know why you need a panic room? Because the north pole is going to be in western PA by this time next week. That's why.
  14. Forecasts for December 2017 Cue the "final countdown" music ... check the most recent scoring updates in the November thread ... but I will show how many points you are behind the leader (RJay in all three contests, original six, western and all nine). Your original six points deficit follows the IAH forecast column, and your western points deficit and your all - nine deficit (in brackets) are at the end of the rows after the SEA forecasts. These can be translated to forecast differentials quite easily. For every 10 points per location you are behind, you need to be 0.5 deg closer than RJay to the actual value this month. Example, let's say you are 180 points behind in the six-location "original six" portion. That reduces to 30 points per location. That means that your forecasts will need to average 1.5 deg closer to catch up. There are situations where your forecasts cannot catch up, you can do the math on that. As one example, if your forecasts are all 0.1 different from RJay, the highest point differential you can achieve is 2 points per location. No spread, no dread chez RJay. Watch for these catch up numbers to be related to provisionals in the tables that appear later this month showing the anomalies unfolding. You can also figure out how much it will take to overtake anyone else ahead of you now. If you are 180 behind and somebody else is 150 behind, you need 30 more points than they achieve this month to catch them. In my case, I have Normal dead in the water if I am right. Please note, if ORD goes very low and I am close, there will be no scoring adjustments. Rule 872b (not really) stated that scoring minimum progression would only be applied if no forecaster scored higher than 60 from regular scoring rules. If one does, everyone else takes their lumps and remains with unassisted scores. Just to clarify for any other stations, if a high raw score iis 40 to 60, then 50 or that higher value is the max and all other scores are calibrated from there. If the raw high score is below 40, then the max is set at 40 and other scores are calibrated from there. The calibration progression is in units of 5 down to 30 in any case, then in units of 3 to 12, and in units of 2 to zero, except that if there are big gaps I will equate nearly zero-worthy forecasts at zero (I had to do that to my score last month for the DEN fiasco, which is why I had the rule in mind, grrr). Anyway, I think the scoring is designed to be fair but not overly punitive when we all mess up, some mess up worse than others so there should be some scoring differential ... and there would be in a more complicated correlation technique. so here we go with December's chilly prospects ... ... ... ... . ... ... ... ... ... ... ... or toasty over here ... ... ... __ points behind feature __________________________________________ "original six" __________________ western, all nine FORECASTER _______ DCA_NYC_BOS ___ ORD_ATL_IAH _ pts behind RJay _ DEN_PHX_SEA _ pts behnd RJay ___ Normal _______0.0__0.0__0.0 ___0.0__0.0__0.0 ___ 370 ____ 0.0__0.0__0.0 ___ 361, 731 ___ potential gain __ 60 __ 60 __ 60 __ 90 __ 60 __ 20 ___ 350 ___ 44 __ 44 __ 80 ___ 168, 518 wxdude64 __ (-2%) __ 0.0 _--0.4 _--0.8 __--1.9 _--0.6 _--0.3 ____ 420 ____ --0.8 _+1.0 _+1.1 ___ 184, 604 ___ potential gain ____ 58 __ 50 __ 42 ___ 50 __ 46 __ 12 ______ 258 _____ 58 __ 22 __ 56 ___ 136, 394 SD _______________ --1.0 _--1.0 _--1.0 __--1.0 _+0.5 _+1.0 ____ 258 ____ +1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ 270, 528 ___ potential gain _____ 40 __ 40 __ 40 ___ 70 __ 70 __ 00 _____ 260 _____ 24 __ 24 __ 60 ___ 108, 368 wxallannj __________--1.2 _--1.7 _--1.6 __--4.4 _ +0.8 _+1.4 ____148 ____ +2.2 _+1.9 _+2.5 ___ 060,208 ___ potential gain ____ 36 __ 26 __ 28 ___ 02 __ 76 __ 48 _____ 216 _____ 00 __ 06 __ 30__036,252 Neckbeard93_ (-3%)_--1.5 _--1.2 __ 0.0 __--4.5 _ --0.9 _+0.7 ____669 ____ +1.3 _+2.1 _--0.4 ___497,1166 ___ potential gain ____ 27 __ 33 __ 57 ___--03 __ 39 __ 31 _____ 184 _____ 15 __ 00 __ 85 ___ 100, 284 RodneyS __________ --1.5 _--1.2 _--1.2 __--0.3 _--1.9 _+1.6 ____ 248 ____ +2.2 _+4.8 _+1.0 ___ 040, 288 ___ potential gain ____ 30 __ 36 __ 36 ____ 84 __ 22 __ 52 _____ 260 _____ 00 __ 52 __ 60 ___ 112, 372 Roger Smith _______ --2.0 _--2.8 _--3.5__--8.0_--2.0 _+2.0 ____ 575 ____ +6.0 _+3.5 _+4.5 __ 141, 716 ___ potential gain ____20 __ 04 __ 10 ____ 40 __ 20 __ 20 _____ 114 _____ 66 __ 26 __ 10___102,216 hudsonvalley21 ____ --2.1 _--2.2 _--2.0 __ --3.0 _--2.6 _--0.9 ____ 290 ____ +2.1 _+1.9 _+2.7 ___ 266, 556 ___ potential gain ____ 18 __ 16 __ 20 ____ 30 __ 08 __ 02 _____ 094 _____ 02 __ 06 __ 26 ___ 034,128 ___ Consensus ____ --2.2 _--2.3 _--2.2 __ --3.8 _--1.7 __ 0.0 ____ 110 ____ +2.2 _+2.1 _+2.6 ___ 023, 133 ___ potential gain ___ 16 __ 14 __ 16 _____ 14 __ 26 __ 20 _____ 106 _____ 00 __ 02 __ 28 ____ 030, 136 DonSutherland.1 ___ --2.4 _--2.5 _--2.8 __ --3.3 _--2.0 _--0.5 ____ 048 ____ +3.0 _+3.2 _+3.4 ___ 138, 186 ___ potential gain ___ 12 __ 10 __ 04 _____ 24 __ 20 __ 10 _____ 070 _____ 16 __ 20 __ 12 ___ 048, 118 dmillz25 __________ --2.5 _--3.5 _--3.5__--4.0 _--1.0 _+1.0 ____ 284 ____ +1.5 _+2.0 _+3.5 ___ 245, 529 ___ potential gain ___ 10 __ 10 __ 10 _____ 10 __ 40 __ 40 _____ 120 _____ 14 __ 04 __ 20 ___ 038, 158 Tom _____________ --2.6 _--3.5 _--3.2 __ --4.2 _--1.5 _+0.3 ____ 245 ____ +2.2 _+1.7 _+2.6 __ 257, 502 ___ potential gain ___ 08 __ 10 __ 04 _____ 06 __ 30 __ 26 _____ 084 _____ 00 __ 10 __ 28 ___ 038, 122 BKViking __________ --2.7 _--2.0_ --2.1 __ --3.6 _--3.0_--1.0 ____ 106 ____ +1.2 _+1.3 _+3.1 __ 200, 306 ___ potential gain ____ 06 __ 20 __ 18 _____ 18 __ 00 __ 00 _____ 062 _____ 20 __ 18 __ 18 ___ 056, 118 RJay _____________ --3.0 _--3.0 _--3.0 __ --4.5 _--3.0_--1.0 ____ 000 ____ +2.2 _+2.2 _+4.0 __000,000 H2OTown_wx ______--3.1 _--2.3 _--2.5 __ --2.7 _--0.9 _--1.4 ____1263 ____+3.4 _+1.2 _+2.1 __ 572,1835 ___ potential gain ____ 02 __ 14 __ 10 _____ 36 __ 42 __ 48 _____ 152 _____ 24 __ 20 __ 38 ___ 082, 234 so_whats_happening_--3.1 _--2.7 _--2.4__ --4.2 _--2.8 _--1.3 ____ 710 ____ --1.6 _+2.7 _+1.3 __ 265, 975 ___ potential gain _____ 02 __ 06 __ 12 ____ 06 __ 04 __ 06 _____ 036 _____ 76 __ 10 __ 54 ___ 140, 176 ___________________________________________________________________________________________ color codes: red = warmest forecast (Normal is warmer for NYC, ORD). blue = coldest forecast (Normal is colder for PHX) green = Normal rusty = Consensus which is median value, mean of 7th and 8th for the 14 entrants (basically, back to the determined regulars). (8th) _ I have edited into the table the potential numbers of points you can obtain in excess of RJay, a differential that assumes all outcomes are (a) within the range -5 to +5 and (b) are either what you predicted or on the favorable side (to you) of what you predicted. When we have provisional anomalies for the end of the month these numbers will change to projected gains or losses relative to RJay forecasts. Note that penalty points are factored in, this is why Neckbeard93 has a potential gain of -3 points for ORD where his forecast is the same as RJay but he will lose 3 points. Also for the two forecasts that are outside the -5 to +5 zone (both mine) the potential difference is based on that verifying and the adjusted scoring applied to RJay, so not as large a differential as the raw difference in forecasts in all other cases. It should be noted that some of these differentials begin to shrink when actual values move more than 5.0 away from RJay in the regular scoring zone because then you might be losing points while he was already at zero. For example, any actual for ORD above +0.5 is going to be a zero score for RJay. But if you're closer and this increases you'll lose points back to him. One final note is that you can see from these "potential gain" lines who has any mathematical chance of catching the leader. There is no scenario in which you would gain more than this number of points. So if you don't have that many, you can't catch up. It looks like DonS, RodneyS, wxallannj and SD have enough potential gain to catch up (in the original six) and pretty much only Rodney S or Consensus can catch up in both the west and all nine. Wxallannj can catch up in all nine but not the western contest.
  15. Just a notice that the Lakes/OV snowfall contest deadline has been extended to end of Sunday Dec 10th (CST) to encourage a few more entries. You will find this thread near the top of the menu, and you can use an entry form template in post 1 to give forecasts for 20 locations plus three tie-breakers. Hope to see your entry. Current entrants who have already posted can edit to the new deadline too. Contest will close at the deadline pronto with a table of entries to follow on the 11th.
  16. We are a little short on entries, would anyone object if I extended the deadline to Sunday Dec 10th at end of day CST, with your option to edit your forecasts. I will post a notice in the forum banter or discussion threads. So edit away, I have not looked at any forecasts yet (have been very busy moving house and just getting back to various projects now).
  17. Four Seasons Contest Final Report Autumn 2017 scoring Original six (eastern and central) __ Western _____________________ All Nine Rank_Forecaster _ Total _ Points ____ Rank_Forecaster_Total_Points __Rank_Forecaster _ Total _ Pts 1 __ BKViking _____ 1056 __ 10 ____ 1 __ RodneyS _______ 574 __ 10 ___ 1 __ Rodney S ____1571 _10 2 __ Tom _________1043 ___ 7 ____ 2 __ wxdude64 ______ 536 ___ 7 ___ 2 __ BKViking ____ 1570 _ 7 3 __ Roger Smith __ 1029 ___ 6 ____ 3 __ wxallannj _______ 532 ___ 6 ___ 3 __ wxallannj ___ 1555 _ 6 4 __ wxallannj _____1023 ___ 5 ____ 4 __ BKViking ________514 ___ 5 ____4 __ Tom _______ 1507 _ 5 5 _so_whats_happn_1017 ___ 4 _____5 __ RJay ___________510 ___ 4 ____5 __ SD ________ 1477 _ 4 6 __ RodneyS ______ 997 ___ 3 _____6 __ Neckbeard93 ____509 ___ 3 ___ t6 _so_whats_happn 1473_3 7 __ SD ___________ 995 ___ 2 _____7 __ H2OTown_wx ___489 ___ 2 ___ t6 __ Neckbeard93 _1473 _ 3 8 __ Dmillz25 _______967 ___ 1 _____8 __ SD ____________482 ___ 1 ____ 8 __ Roger Smith _ 1469 _ 1 9 _ Neckbeard93 ___ 964 ___ 1 _____9 __ hudsonvalley21 __480 ___ 1 ___ 9 __ wxdude64 ___ 1441 _ 1 10 __ hudsonvalley21 _941 ___ 1 ____10 _ _DonSutherland.1_ 479 ___ 1 ___10 __ hudsonvalley21 1421 _1 also 8 __ rainsucks __ 980 __ 1) ... from 2/3 ... does not bump a regular from points, did not finish top ten other lists) (only those who played 3/3 are shown in this portion which we will call the pointless portion) 11 __ RJay _________ 907 ___ 0 ____11 __ Tom __________464 ___ 0 ____ 11 __ RJay ________1417 _ 0 12 __ wxdude64 _____905 ___ 0 ____12 __ so_whats_happn_456 ___ 0 ____12 __ Dmillz25 _____1412 _ 0 13 __ H2OTown_wx __ 878 __ 0 ____ 13 __ Dmillz25 _______445 ___ 0 ____ 13 __ H2OTown_wx_1367 _ 0 13 __ DonSutherland.1_740 __ 0 ____ 14 __ Roger Smith ___ 440 ___ 0 ____ 14 __ DonSutherland 1219 _ 0 (ranks and scoring below are independent of actual forecasters) 6 __ Consensus ___ 1011 ___ 3 ____t2 __ Consensus _____ 536 ____ 7 ____ 4 __ Consensus ___ 1547 _ 5 10 _ _ Normal ______ 944 ___ 1 ____7 ___Normal ________ 492 ____2 ____ 10 __ Normal _____ 1436 _ 1 TOTAL POINTS (winter + spring + summer + autumn) __ Contest Final Results Original Six _________________ Western _____________________ All Nine DonSutherland1 ___ 23 _________ RJay ___________ 25 ___________RodneyS ___________ 24 RJay ____________ 16 _________ RodneyS ________ 20 ___________DonSutherland1 _____ 23 BKViking _________ 15 _________ H2OTown__Wx___ 13 ___________RJay _______________18 RodneyS _________ 14__________ wxallannj ________15 __________ BKViking ___________ 12 Tom _____________13 __________wxdude64 _______14 ___________wxallannj ___________12 Stebo ____________13 __________ DonSutherland1 __10 ___________Tom _______________ 9 blazess556 ________11 __________Dmillz25 ________ 10___________ so_whats_happening __9 wxallannj _________ 10 ________so_whats_happening 10___________ DMillz25 ____________8 Damage in Tolland __ 8 __________ BKViking _________8___________ Stebo ______________8 SD _______________ 7 __________ hudsonvalley21 ___ 7___________hudsonvalley21 ______ 7 hudsonvalley21 _____ 7 __________Roger Smith ______ 7 __________blazess556 __________7 Roger Smith ________7 __________ blazess556 _______ 5___________H2OTown__ Wx _____ 6 so_whats_happening_ 6 __________Tom ____________5 _________ SD ________________ 6 dmillz25 ___________ 5__________ SD ______________ 4 _________ Maxim _____________ 5 Maxim ____________ 5 __________ Stebo ___________ 4 __________ wxdude64 __________ 3 wxdude64 _________ 2 __________Neckbeard93 ______ 3 __________ Neckbeard93 ________3 H2OTown_Wx ______ 1 _________ Damage in Tolland __1 __________ Damage in Tolland ___ 3 Neckbeard93 _______ 1 __________ Maxim ___________0 __________ Roger Smith ________ 2 rainsucks __________ 1 __________ rainsucks ________ 0 ___________ rainsucks __________ 0 Consensus _________13 _________ Consensus _______18 _____________ Consensus __________20 Normal ____________11 _________ Normal __________ 3 _____________ Normal _____________ 3 ________________________________________________________________ So, it turned into quite a close four seasons contest, DonSutherland.1 held on to win the "original six" and RJay did likewise to hold on to the western, but RodneyS who was running amok in the autumn just edged into first place overall in the all nine contest segment. Consensus and Normal are separated out from the table, Consensus (our average basically) finishing tied 5th in the original six and third in both western and all nine. Congrats to the winners.
  18. First of all, the routine business ... predict the temperature anomalies in F deg (relative to 1981-2010 normals) for these nine locations: DCA __ NYC __ BOS _____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA The deadline for this ongoing contest is 06z on Wed Nov 1st with 1% late penalties for each 2h first 36h, then 1% per hour. Snowfall contest -- improved over previous years by deleting ATL, IAH and PHX and adding three places where it actually snows So predict the total 2017-18 winter snowfall (including anything already measured) at these nine locations: DCA __ NYC __ BOS _____ ORD __ DTW __ BUF ____ DEN __ SEA __ BTV You can submit entries for this up to and including November 15th. Also you can edit entries already made, as I won't collect your forecasts for a table of entries until Nov 16th after the deadline of 06z. This does not apply to the temperature forecasts, those were collected and stored several days after the deadline of Nov 1st. Good luck and thanks to ATL, IAH and PHX for giving up their spots for future considerations. (now watch it snow like crazy in the south)
  19. <<< ---=--- 2017 Annual Scoring Summary (January-November) ---=--- >>> ... ... ... ... ... ... ... (see post 28 above for final November scoring) ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... Best scores: The first six numbers refer to the six locations, the last two refer to eastern and central division totals. Months won (in this part of the contest) are shown by name after the number codes. There are sometimes ties so the totals may add up higher than the number of months. Best total scores January-October are highlighted in red in the table for six locations, and in bold italic for two groups and for all six. Also, best scores are awarded both within the group of regular entrants and the larger total field. FORECASTER _________DCA_NYC_BOS__east____ORD_ATL_IAH___cent___TOTAL__Best scores, months 1 RJay _____________ 538 _537 _508 __1583___534 _770_799__2103__ 3686_122.311.2.3_Feb, Apr 2 DonSutherland.1 ____557 _496 _477 __1530___597 _722 _795__2108___3638 _001.122.1.3_Jan, May 3 BKViking __________ 576 _510 _532 __1618___563 _767 _632 __1962___3580 _110.001.1.1_Oct 4 Consensus _________554 _498 _485 __1537 ___551 _773_715 __2039___3576 __010.000 4 wxallannj __________601 _504 _562__1667___466 _709 _696 __1871___3538 __002.022.1.0 _Jun 5 Tom ______________593 _489 _497 __1579 ___509 _704 _649__1862___3441 __111.211.1.0 6 RodneyS __________ 532 _448 _406 __1386 ___624 _665 _763__2052___3438 __011.411.0.2 _ Mar,Nov 7 SD _______________ 584 _531 _525 __1640 ___546 _654 _588__1788___3428 _ 121200.1.0 _ Sep 8 dmillz25 __________ 610 _499 _484 __1593 ___543 _656 _610__1809___3402 __100.101 9 hudsonvalley21______523 _455 _466 __1444 ___535 _726 _691__1952___3396 __000.010 10 Normal ____________474 _463 _456 __1393 ___411 _520 _592__1523 ___3316 __101.001.0.0 __ May 10 wxdude64 _________536 _457 _519 __1512 ___475 _665 _614__1754___3266 __120.001.1.0 11 Roger Smith _______ 550 _503 _392 __1445 ___461 _616 _589__1666___3111 __101.001.0.0_Aug 12 Neckbeard93*______ 419 _399 _359 __1177 ___592 _634 _614__1840___3017 __111.000.1.0 13 so_whats_happening#507_391 _430 __1328 ___443 _638 _567 __1648___2976__200.110 .0.1 14 Stebo $____________450 _461 _423 __1334 ___389 _534 _545 __1468___2802 __011.102.1.0 __ Jul 15 Damage in Tolland __ 402 _364 _353 __1119 ___442 _538 _540__1520___2639 __000.010..0.0 16 H2Otown_WX~~____ 414 _365 _375 __1154___ 294 _527 _448__1269___2423 __110.001..1.0 17 blazess556~________303 _303 _322 __ 928 ___ 322 _303 _293__ 918___ 1846 __001.000 18 rainsucks // ________ 166 _172 _138 __ 476 ___ 150 _184 _170 __ 504___ 980 __121.100.1.1_Sep,Oct 19 CCM %%__________ 136 _106 _156 __ 398 ___ 146 _134 _126 __ 406____ 804 __000.100..0.1 20 snoski14 !! _________ 42 __ 92 __ 91 __ 225 ___117 _152 _132 __ 401____ 626 __011.000.1.0_ Oct 21 Prestige Worldwide^ _111 _107 _123 __ 341 ____ 25 _140 _118 __ 283____ 624 __110.010 22 Maxim^____________ 80 __ 85 __78 __ 243 ____50 _150 _142 __ 342____ 585 __100.001 23 JBG % _____________88 __ 64 __32 __ 184 ____ 72 _ 60 __ 88 __ 220____ 404 24 IntenseBlizzard 2014/_ 62 __ 48 __58 __ 168 ____ 32 _ 64 __ 96 __ 192____ 360 ________________________________________________________________________________ Updated annual scoring for western and all nine contests January - October 2017 Best scores: numbers are best scores for DEN, PHX and SEA ... red months are best scores in western contest, and green months at end of row are best scores for all nine in that month. FORECASTER _________DEN_PHX_SEA___TOTAL___Best scores___All nine ( = rank )__Months 1 Rjay _______________ 694 _688 _847___2229 __ 2 0 2 _ Jan,Jul__ 5915 ( = 1) __ FEB, APR,JUL 2 Consensus ___________702 _676 _828 ___2206 __ 2 0 0 _________ 5782 ( = 2) 2 RodneyS ____________716 _765 _708 ___ 2189 __ 2 3 0 __ Oct ___ 5627 ( = 4) __ MAR, NOV 3 wxallannj ___________ 678 _701 _790 ___ 2169 __ 1 1 1 __ Nov ____5707 ( = 3) __ JUN 4 DonSutherland.1 _____ 708 _663 _720 ___ 2091 __ 2 1 0 __ Aug ___ 5729 ( = 2)__JAN, MAY,AUG 5 Roger Smith _________509 _697 _882 ___ 2088 __ 0 1 2__ Feb ____ 5199 (= 11) 6 wxdude64 ___________584 _666 _795 ___ 2045 __ 2 2 1 __ Nov ___ 5311 (= 10) 7 BKViking ____________526 _613 _890 ___ 2029 __ 0 0 1 _________ 5609 ( = 5) __ SEP, OCT 8 dmillz25 ____________ 606 _602 _776 ___ 1984 __ 2 0 1 _ Apr,Sep _ 5386 ( = 8) 9 Tom _______________ 547 _691 _734 ___ 1972 __ 0 0 0 __________5413 ( = 6) 10 so_whats_happening#_595 _667 _702 ___ 1964 __ 0 2 0 _ Mar,May _4940 (= 12) 11 hudsonvalley21 ______ 564 _665 _734 ___ 1963 __ 0 0 0 _________ 5359 ( = 9) 12 SD_________________ 644 _655 _660 ___ 1959 __ 0 0 0 __________5387 ( = 7) 13 Normal _____________ 580 _598 _590 ___ 1868 __ 0 1 0 _________ 5184 (= 12) 13 Damage in Tolland ____529 _572 _738 ___ 1839 __ 0 1 3 _ Jun _____4478 (= 14) 14 Neckbeard93* _______760 _507 _465 ___ 1732 __ 3 1 0 _________ 4749 (= 13) 15 H20TownWx~~______ 560 _476 _621 ___ 1657 __ 0 0 1 _________ 4080 (= 16) 16 Stebo $_____________ 489 _518 _593 ___ 1604 __ 1 0 1 _________ 4406 ( =15) 17 blazess556~ ________ 324 _353 _360 ___ 1037 __ 1 0 0 _________ 2883 (= 17) 18 Prestige Worldwide^__ 159 _223 _170 ____ 552 __ 0 1 0 _________ 1176 (= 19) 19 Maxim^ ____________ 161 _133 _176 ____ 440 __ 0 0 0 _________ 1055 (= 21) 20 rainsucks // _________ 136 _150 _104 ____ 390 __ 0 1 0 _________ 1370 (= 18)__SEP,OCT 21 CCM %% ___________ 114 _ 94 _156 ____ 364 __ 0 0 0 __________1168 (= 20) 22 IntenseBlizzard 2014/ __ 98 _ 50 _ 88 _____236 __ 1 0 0 ___________ 596 (= 24) 23 JBG % _______________76 _ 84 __48 ____ 208 __ 0 1 0 ___________ 612 (= 23) 24 snoski14 !! ___________ 79 _ 14 _ 56 ____ 149 __ 0 0 0 ___________ 775 (= 22) _______________________________________________________________________ NOTES: * one month missed (Jan). # one month missed (Apr), $ two months missed (Oct, Nov) ~~ two months missed (July, August) ~ five months missed (July, August, September, October, November) ^ three months entered (Jan, Feb, Mar) %% two months entered (May, June) ... // two months entered (September, October) % one month entered (July) ... / one month entered (September) ... !! two months entered (Oct, Nov) Reports on points lost due to late penalties removed ... table shows late penalties for original six and western contests. e.g., 0,2 means 0 points lost and 2 points lost. FORECASTER ___ Jan _ Mar _ Apr _ May _ Jun _ Jul _ Aug _ Sep _ Oct _ Nov ___ TOTAL Blazess556 _____(0,2) _- - - _- - - _- - - _ - - - _ - - - _- - - _- - - _ - - - _ - - - ___ 0, 2 Rjay ___________- - - _(22,19)- - _- - - _ - - - _ - - - _- - - _- - - _ - - - _ - - - ___22,19 Damage in Tolland - - -_(13, 5)- - _- - - _ - - - _(75,23)- - -_- - - _(54,29)- - - ___142,57 wxdude64 ______ - - -_(12, 2)- - _- - - _ - - - _ - - - _- - - _(7,4)_ - - - _ - - - ___ 19, 6 H2O_Town__wx _ - - -_- - -_(25,26)- - _- - - _ - - - _ - - - (15,11) (27,21)- - -____67,58 Neckbeard93 ____- - -_- - -_(14,18)- - _- - - _ - - - _ - - - _- - - _- - - _(29,9) ___ 43,27 BKViking _______ - - -_- - -_- - - (20,12)- - -_- - - _ - - - _ - - - _- - - _- - - ____ 20,12 Stebo __________ - - - _- - -_ - - -_- - - (24,15) - - _ - - -_ - - - _- - - _- - - ____ 24,15 SD ____________ - - - _- - - _- - - _- - - _- - - _- - - _- - - _- - - _- - -(30,10) ___ 30,10 Comparative scoring for Neckbeard93, and so_whats_happening ... These two regular participants missed one month each, but a different month with different ranges of scoring. Neckbeard93 missed January, and so_whats_happening missed April. ... I assume for the sake of a better comparison that they scored the average of the other forecasters who participated in those months. Those averages were 365 in January (141 east and central, 224 western), 469 for April (249, 220) and 549 in October (347, 202). Based on those numbers, the comparative totals (and improved ranks) for these three would be Neckbeard93 ____________3158 __ 1956 ___ 5114 _____ 11th __ 13th __ 12th so_whats_happening _____ 3225 __ 2184 ___ 5409 _____ 11th __ 3rd ___ 7th (these ranks compare with time penalty totals and would fall slightly if compared with raw scores before time penalties, also the ranks are noted independently as if the other two had not also moved up ... also, there's no real way of estimating what these forecasters might have scored in the two months ... the January scores east-central were very low). For H2OTown__wx who missed July and August, if 800 and 400 points had been scored in the two sections, ranks would be 12th, 8th and 11th.
  20. I have finished moving and posted final anomalies (several posts back) ... will be hooked up on home net late 4th, finish scoring then. In the above, all will gain 4 pts DCA,2 pts NYC, 2 pts IAH, and most 8 for ORD (some colder fx will lose 8 there). All will lose 4 BOS and 6 SEA (wxdude64 only loses 2 there). ATL points change by 4 (based on 2.0, actual 2.2). Will have to check back on adjustmentts to all-low-scoring DEN, PHX, these scores may not change much. All other updates to come. Scoring order not likely to change much).
  21. Could you edit mine?, it could give me a chance. Later edit _ I have substantially chilled my earlier forecasts (in post 1) e.g. ORD --8.0. Normal, I have you in my sights.
  22. The summary that was in this post is now superseded by the more detailed table of annual scoring found in post 31.
  23. Final scoring for November 2017 FORECASTER _______________ DCA_NYC_BOS___east___ORD_ATL_IAH___cent___ TOTALS_ RodneyS ____________________ 80 _ 36 _ 22 ___ 138 ___ 92 _ 98 _ 90 ___280 ___ 418 Tom ________________________82 _ 62_ 76___ 220 ___ 92 _ 80 _ 18 ___ 190 ____ 410 ___ Normal __________________96 _ 78 _80 ___ 254 ___88 _ 56 _ 02 ___ 146 ____ 400 SD _________________________ 84 _ 58 _ 70 ___ 212 ___ 88 _ 76 _ 22 ___ 188 _ 400 __________ (-7%) ____________ 78 _ 54 _ 65 ___ 197 ___ 82 _ 71 _ 20 ___ 173 ____ 370 H2OTown__wx _______________ 62 _ 48 _ 50 ___ 160 ___ 62 _ 96 _ 36 ___ 194 ____ 354 wxdude64 ___________________ 68 _ 40 _ 66 ___ 174 ___ 66 _ 82 _ 28 ___ 176 ____ 350 so_whats_happening __________ 46 _ 36 _ 44 ___ 126 ___ 62 _ 90 _ 44 ___ 196 ____ 322 ___ Consensus _______________ 54 _ 34 _ 28 ___ 116 ___ 62 _ 96 _ 44 ___ 202 ____ 318 Roger Smith _________________ 74 _ 58 _ 56 ___ 188 ___ 54 _ 60 _ 10 ___ 124 ____ 312 dmillz25 _____________________54 _ 32 _ 26 ___ 112 ___ 82 _ 86 _ 22 ___ 190 ____ 302 Neckbeard93 ________________ 56 _ 16 _ 24 ___ 096 ___ 78 _ 86 _ 66 ___ 230 _ 326 _______________ (-9%) ______ 51 _ 14 _ 22 ___ 087 ___ 72 _ 78 _ 60 ___ 210 ____ 297 hudsonvalley21 ______________ 42 _ 12 _ 18 ___ 072 ___ 60 _ 76 _ 66 ___ 202 ____ 274 wxallannj ___________________ 48 _ 20 _ 32 ___ 100 ___ 40 _ 72 _ 56 ___ 168 ____ 268 BKViking ____________________ 44 _ 16 _ 18 ___ 078 ___ 50 _ 94 _ 44 ___ 188 ____ 266 DonSutherland.1 ______________24 _ 06 _ 12 ___ 042 ___ 54 _ 36 _ 84 ___ 174 ____ 216 RJay _______________________ 24 _ 00 _ 00 ___ 024 ___ 28 _ 64 _ 82 ___ 174 ____ 198 SnoSki14 ____________________00 _ 00 _ 00 ___ 000 ___ 58 _ 64 _ 42 ___ 164 ____ 164 Final scoring for Nov 2017 western and all nine contests Note: DEN and PHX scores are boosted to reach the "minimum progression" of scoring with 50 set as max. Raw score max would be only 30 and 35. FORECASTER ____________ DEN_PHX_SEA ____ TOTAL _______ All nine ( = rank ) wxallannj _________________50 _ 40 _ 46 _____ 136 _________ 404 (= 7) wxdude64 ________________ 00 _ 40 _ 96 _____ 136 _________ 486 (= 4) SD ______________________ 30 _ 30 _ 84 _ 144 ____________ (-7%) _______ 28 _ 28 _ 78 _____ 134 _________ 504 (= 3) RodneyS _________________ 40 _ 50 _ 24 _____ 114 _________ 532 (= 1) Roger Smith ______________ 00 _ 40 _ 58 _____ 098 _________ 410 (= 6) ___ Normal ___________ 15 _ 15 _ 74 ____ 104 _______ 504 (= t3) Tom _____________________12 _ 18 _ 68 _____ 098 _________ 508 (= 2) H2OTown_wx _____________10 _ 21 _ 60 _____ 091 _________ 445 (= 5) BKViking _________________ 21 _ 15 _ 52 _____ 088 _________ 354 (=11) Consensus ________________21 _ 21 _ 46 _____ 088 _________ 406 (= 7) hudsonvalley21 ____________21 _ 21 _ 40 _____ 082 _________ 356 (=10) RJay ____________________ 24 _ 12 _ 44 _____ 080 _________ 278 (=13) Neckbeard93 ______________30 _ 18 _ 40 _ 088 _____________ (-9%) ______27 _ 16 _ 36 _____ 079 _________ 376 (= 9) so_whats_happening _______ 10 _ 24 _ 44 _____ 078 _________ 400 (= 8) DonSutherland.1 ___________35 _ 10 _ 12 _____ 057 _________ 273 (=14) dmillz25 __________________00 _ 27 _ 00 _____ 027 _________ 329 (=12) SnoSki14 ________________ 05 _ 00 _ 14 _____ 019 _________ 183 (=15) Extreme Forecasts DCA __ win for Tom (+1.1) and Normal, "no decision" for SD (+1.0) due to 7% score reduction NYC __ win for Tom (+0.8) and Normal BOS __ win for Tom (+0.2) and Normal. ORD __ no longer qualifies as an extreme forecast, third lowest forecast was high score. ATL __ high score around consensus, does not qualify. IAH __ at +4.9 is a win for RodneyS (+5.4), loss for DonSutherland.1 (+5.7) DEN __ win for wxallannj (+2.5) PHX __ win for RodneyS (+2.8) SEA __ win for wxdude64 (+1.1) UPDATED EXTREME FORECAST TABLE (2017) RJay _____________ 8-0 ___Normal ________ 7-1 Wxdude64 _________6-0 rainsucks __________6-1 DonSutherland1 ____ 6-4 Wxallannj _________ 5-1 SD _______________4-0*** Damage in Tolland __ 4-0* so_whats_happening _4-0 Roger Smith ________4-0 Neckbeard93 _______4-2 Stebo _____________4-3 Tom ______________ 3-0 Prestige Worldwide __ 3-0 RodneyS __________ 3-0 H2OTown__Wx _____ 2-0 Maxim ____________ 2-0 BKViking __________ 2-0 Dmillz25 ___________2-1 snoski14 __________ 2-1 JBG ______________ 1-0 hudsonvalley21 _____1-0 CCM ______________1-1 ____________________________________________ * no decision for DCA July 2017 ** no decision for DEN Oct 2017 *** no decision for DCA Nov 2017 (No decision occurs when an extreme forecast fails to reach high score only due to a late penalty).
  24. Continuing on with tracking of the anomalies and projections ... ________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ____ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ______ (10d) _____+2.0 _+0.6 _+1.6 ___--5.6 _+6.7 _+7.4 ____ --1.8 _+4.5 _--4.1 ______ (15d) _____--1.6 _--2.6 _--1.8 ___--5.1 _+2.8 _+6.6 ____ +1.2 _+5.6 _--1.6 ______ (20d) _____--0.9 _--2.3 _--1.8 ___--4.0 _+1.8 _+6.4 ____ +3.1 _+5.8 _--1.1 ______ (23d) _____--0.9 _--2.2 _--1.5 ___--3.9 _+1.6 _+5.3 ____ +4.6 _+6.2 _+0.5 ______ (28d) _____--0.4 _--1.6 _--1.4 ___--1.4 _+1.6 _+4.8 ____ +6.8 _+6.9 _+1.1 ______ (30d) _____ +0.2 _--1.1 _--1.0 ___--0.6 _+2.2 _+4.9 ____ +7.0 _+7.1 _+1.3 (Dec 3 _ confirmed anomalies posted) (note: snowfall contest is closed for further entries now and a table of forecasts appears in previous post)
  25. Snowfall 2017-18 contest -- Table of Forecasts FORECASTER _________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV so_whats_happening___ 22.0 _ 38.0 _ 63.0 __ 31.0 _ 36.0 __ 85.0 __ 53.0 _ 14.0 _ 96.0 Tom ________________ 19.6 _ 43.8 _63.1 __ 59.4 _ 53.4 _ 103.8 __ 71.5 __ 9.4 _109.3 Roger Smith __________19.5 _ 40.0 _ 60.0 __ 33.0 _ 45.0 __ 80.0 __ 55.0 _ 17.5 _110.0 dmillz25 _____________ 17.0 _ 41.0 _ 57.0 __ 67.0_ 70.0_ 105.0 __ 60.0 _ 15.0 _ 96.0 wxdude64 ____________16.3 _ 27.7 _ 37.5 __ 54.8 _ 55.5 _ 102.2 __ 77.6 _ 11.2 _ 99.5 hudsonvalley21 _______ 15.5 _ 42.0 _ 57.0 __ 47.0 _ 51.0 __ 91.0 __ 64.0 _ 10.0 _ 89.0 DonSutherland.1 ______ 15.1 _ 34.3 _ 53.4 __ 48.9 _ 54.2 _ 112.6 __ 55.8 __ 7.3 _ 96.7 H2OTown__wx ________14.4 _ 23.2 _ 41.2 __ 44.4 _ 38.7 __ 93.4 __ 40.6 __ 5.4 _ 67.1 ___ Consensus _____14.4 _33.7 _53.4 __48.9 _51.0 __95.8 __55.8 _10.0 _96.0 Stebo _______________ 12.5 _ 33.7 _ 50.0 __ 50.0 _ 57.3 __ 65.0 __ 50.5 __ 7.0 _ 72.5 wxallannj ____________ 12.3 _ 27.0 _ 33.0 __ 38.0 _ 43.0 __ 53.0 __ 58.0 _ 19.0 _ 57.0 BKViking _____________11.0 _ 33.0 _ 70.0 __ 40.0 _ 50.0 _ 110.0 __ 77.0 _ 10.0 _110.0 RJay ________________ 10.0 _ 40.0 _ 70.0 __ 50.0 _ 55.0 _120.0 __80.0 __ 6.0 _ 105.0 SD __________________10.0 _ 23.0 _ 45.0 __ 55.0 _ 67.0 _ 110.0 __ 85.0 __4.0 _ 87.0 RodneyS ______________8.1 _ 25.0 _ 35.8 __ 52.4 _ 45.7 __ 95.8 __ 52.1 _ 12.5 _ 57.0 SnoSki14 _____________ 2.0 __ 5.0 _ 35.0 __ 40.0 _ 45.0 __ 80.0 __ 55.0 _ 30.0_ 75.0 ____________________________________________________________________________ 15 entrants, the consensus is the median value (8th ranked). Heaviest snowfall forecasts for each location are shown in bold. Least snowfall is shown in italics.