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Roger Smith

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  1. 2017/18 Lakes/OV winter snowfall contest

    The tables have been updated through April 17th, will not be updated again until around Monday 23rd as we go on a short road trip, not planning to be on line much so if it does snow across the region around Wed-Thurs these additions won't appear until next Monday. You can see from the first of the scoring tables where you still have "credit" (higher forecast than actual) which is good for your position in the contest -- if it snows there -- and those places are in red type in the first table (the one where TH is the leader). The other tables are interesting to compare, not quite the same results, although it's the same group of about half a dozen forecasters who are jostling for top spots in each table and the same group near the lower end (including the host so no worries about bias). Will be back to update all the tables on Monday then ... after which hopefully it will be all MQT and easier to foresee changes if any. Right now I am very close to the MQT total so that means it will snow like crazy there in May.
  2. The contest follows the same format as the past two winters. Predict the total seasonal snowfall (some may have already fallen at some locations) using the following table as a guide (1986-2015 average values and the past two seasons are shown) ... please use the entry form below this table. Note there are three tie-breakers involving monthly amounts at ORD, IND and DTW. LOCATION _______________ 1986-2015 ____ 2015-16 ____ 2016-17 Alpena, MI (APN) _____________ 80.4 _______ 88.8 ________66.4 Chicago, IL (ORD) ____________ 38.1 _______ 31.2 ________26.1 Cleveland, OH (CLE) ___________67.2 _______32.8 ________ 37.3 Columbus, OH (CMH) __________28.4 _______ 17.1 ________ 9.3 Detroit, MI (DTW) ____________ 44.8 _______ 35.3 _______ 37.9 Fort Wayne, IN (FWA) _________ 34.0 _______ 20.0 _______ 18.5 Grand Rapids, MI (GRR) ________77.1 _______ 61.1 _______ 60.1 Green Bay, WI (GRB) __________54.2 _______ 50.0 _______ 53.2 Indianapolis, IN (IND) _________ 25.9 _______ 13.3 ________9.7 La Crosse, WI (LSE) ___________46.1 _______ 40.3 _______ 42.2 London, ON (YXU) ____________ 75.7 _______ 65.2 _______ 66.1 Louisville, KY (SDF) ___________ 13.9 _______ 14.9 ________ 2.7 Marquette, MI (MQT) _________ 199.8 ______ 160.9 ______ 154.0 Milwaukee, WI (MKE) __________49.2 ________39.1 _______ 37.6 Minneapolis, MN (MSP) ________ 50.6_________36.7 _______32.0 Moline, IL (MLI) ______________ 33.5 ________ 24.1 _______22.4 Paducah, KY (PAH)_____________ 9.2 ________ 12.1 ________1.2 Peoria, IL (PIA) _______________24.9 ________ 15.3 _______13.9 St. Louis, MO (STL) ___________ 18.4 ________ 10.9 ________3.2 Toronto, ON (YYZ) ____________ 42.5 ________ 25.9 _______32.6 ------------------------------- --------------------------------------- --------------------------------------- ENTRY FORM APN __ ORD __ CLE __ CMH __ DET __ FWA __ GRR __ GRB __ IND __ LSE __ YXU __ SDF __ MQT __ MKE __ MSP __ MLI __ PAH __ PIA __ STL __ YYZ __ Tiebreakers 1. December 2017 snowfall ORD (8.5" normal) 2. January 2018 snowfall IND (8.6" normal) 3. February 2018 snowfall DTW (10.2" normal) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- If you want to see individual years in the 1986-2015 period, check the 2015-16 contest thread (several pages into the archives now), post number one there has a table of the 30 years in the period used. Entries will be accepted until end of the day Thursday, Nov 30th (2359 CST). You can edit entries before that time as the table of entries will be done in early December (using an excel table format). Good luck !! Late entries (Dec 1 to 7) will be scored but cannot place higher than 6th, enter for the fun of it if you want though. Entries that appear in the thread after Dec 8 will not be scored. (This was later extended to end of Dec 10 to encourage more entries -- contest is now underway and closed to further entries).
  3. 2017/18 Lakes/OV winter snowfall contest

    Lead has changed hands twice during the day (15th), first Stebo moved in front, then cmillzz, but it's back to Thomp2m now due to added snow at APN and MKE. Looking at these three now, the remaining locations in play would be any with red numbers for any of them, those with all black numbers are settled as far as their differentials are concerned. These are arranged in order of Thomp2m advantage over cmillz, red numbers mean they have this much credit left to use, black means errors are going to increase with all new snow. Location _______ Thomp2m __ cmillzz __ Stebo ____ when advantage begins ___ MQT ____________ 23.0 _____ 8.5 _____2.5 ______ after 8.5" more snow _____ APN _____________ 6.2 _____ 0.1 _____ 2.1 ______ after 0.1" more snow _____ STL _____________ 7.4 _____ 2.9 _____ 6.9 ______ after 2.9" more snow _____ YXU _____________ 4.3 _____ 10.7 ____ 4.3 _______from now on ____________ IND _____________ 4.1 _____ 3.9 _____ 0.9 ______ from now on ____________ MKE _____________ 2.1 _____0.6 _____ 4.4 ______ from now on ____________ LSE ______________ 0.6 ____ 2.3 _____ 7.4 ______ cmillz adv from now on ___ FWA _____________ 9.5 ____ 3.7 _____10.3 ______ Stebo adv from now on ___ YYZ _____________ 3.6 ____ 1.1 ______ 3.9 ______ Stebo adv from now on ___ ORD _____________ 4.6 ____ 5.1 _____ 1.9 ______ Stebo adv from now on ___ So what does all this mean? Let's plug in some plausible additional snowfalls and find out. (Thomp2m currently leads cmillzz by 0.8" and Stebo by 2.1" 30" more at MQT means Thomp2m reduces error by 16", cmillzz increases error by 13.0" and Stebo increases error by 30.0" __ net effect alone is Thomp2m leads cm by 29.8" and Stebo by 48.1" ... leads some others with more leeway at MQT by 20 instead of 30. these others (Madwx, slowpoke, Hawkeye) move past cmillzz and Stebo. 5" more at APN means Thomp2m reduces error by 5", cmillzz increases error by 4.9" and Stebo increases error by 0.8" __ net effect alone is Thomp2m leads cm by 10.7" and Stebo by 7.9", Stebo moves into second ahead of cmillzz. STL not likely to see more snow, so no estimates. IND could see 1.0" more, this would increase Thomp2m lead by 1.8" MKE could see the full 4.4" that Stebo has left as a credit. If this is all that happens, Stebo moves back into the lead by 0.2" (cmillzz moves to third). LSE could see the full 2.3" that cmillzz has left as a credit. This is the only place left for cm to move back into the lead, and if this is the only thing that happens, he would lead by 1.5". This may be the first change and cm could be temporarily back in the lead as long as MQT doesn't add 8.5" more first. The three last entries are Stebo's best chance to move back into first, if more than an inch of snow happens at each of them and nothing else happens, Stebo goes back in front. So it's complicated, looks to me like Thomp2m has a big advantage over cmillzz because LSE is not going to be the only place to gain snow, and a considerable advantage over Stebo because MQT is more likely to gain snow than all the others combined. I will revisit this proposition in late April to see if there's any shift in thinking. Remember, if all are in the black, it doesn't matter what happens at those locations, all errors will increase in lock-step. (added later) LSE has been slow to report confirmed amounts but from Regional totals I could see evidence for an increase of at least 0.4" today which ties Thomp2m and cmillzz for the lead, Stebo currently 2.1" behind in third. (later) Thomp2m is back in front of cmillzz now, with Stebo just behind in third. The table above is already somewhat out of date especially for LSE and MKE. I may revise it tomorrow. (16th) 8 pm Madwx and Slowpoke have moved ahead of Stebo today, so these three are 3rd, 4th and 5th now. Once this storm is totally done end of today, I may look at their chances relative to the two leaders, but Thomp2m has opened up a larger lead now. Also of note, we are within 2" of reaching seasonal normal and passed contest average today. (17th) 8 am New calculations based on end of day snowfalls scrambled the order a bit more, now it's Thomp2m, madwx, slowpoke, cmillzz and then Hawkeye with Stebo dropping down to sixth. Contest average and normal have moved up, contest average is between first and second forecasters, and Normal is between 2nd and 3rd forecasters. With the big storm just about done, it's possible that there won't be much further activity other than MQT so if you still have any credit there, you aren't likely to drop down the table now. There's also a new scoring paradigm to check, rankings for each location, and average of those rankings, which shows Slowpoke with the best average ranking (5.75) with Hawkeye at 5.9 and Thomp2m tied with madwx at 6.30. So now there's three ways to score the contest, all with slightly different results (total error, average percentage error, average rank order).
  4. April 12th-15th Winter Storm

    Here's a link to that 1976 data (for YYZ) http://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_data/daily_data_e.html?hlyRange=1953-01-01|2013-06-13&dlyRange=1937-11-01|2013-06-13&mlyRange=1937-01-01|2013-06-01&StationID=5097&Prov=ON&urlExtension=_e.html&searchType=stnName&optLimit=specDate&StartYear=1840&EndYear=2018&selRowPerPage=25&Line=18&searchMethod=contains&Month=4&Day=24&txtStationName=Toronto&timeframe=2&Year=1976 You'll see it was 28 deg on Easter Sunday 18th and then rain to snow mix 24th-25th with eventually 15 cm by morning of 26th. This is the latest real winter storm I can recall from my younger days although I measured snow in May around 1966-67 when I was doing my own weather station (about an inch or two, nothing that stuck on roads). I think there was 8 cm of snow on May 1, 1875 in the Toronto city records. Just looking at YXU, this 1976 storm there gave 56 mm of rain and just 4 cm of snow over the same time frame. At Peterborough where I was during the storm, the reports say 8 to 10 cm snow at two different locations. I think it was heavier on the Oak Ridges moraine than either side. But not quite the same type of low, this one was more of a rain to sleet to snow transition with steadily falling temps. It was -2 C by the Monday morning at the end of the snowfall.
  5. April 12th-15th Winter Storm

    There was a big snowstorm in late April of 1976 with 20 cms in places, that happened after a week of hot weather so the trees were fully out ... lots of power outages with that. I am just looking up the actual dates, think it was 24th-25th. It was on a weekend.
  6. April 12th-15th Winter Storm

    Crazy system for mid-April ... looks to be pivoting over 36h so could expect some very heavy freezing rain in a narrow band probably about YXU to FNT to GRR to northern Chicago metro, frequent thunder and lightning will develop during the day, heavy ice pellets in a band from YYZ to WGD to MBS to MKG, so less icing but equal amounts of liquid equivalent, heavy snow band north of that. Despite 552 dm thickness pushing into s.e. MI and upstate NY, cold air can't be flushed out due to falling heights and the system pivot. Temps will struggle to pass -1 C (30 F) and may eventually do so but the dynamics are so strong aloft, looks like there could be intense thunder and lightning across sw ON and se MI most of the day and into the overnight period for central southern ON and upstate NY. Where this turned into a blizzard, it brought back memories for me of the April 2-4 1975 storm and the 20-25 inch snowfall we had in central Ontario ... that was blown into large drifts which then froze solid for several days in the freeze-thaw cycle of strong April sun and record cold temps. Might be a bit like that in MN and northern WI by Monday, move those drifts now before they freeze solid. I suspect the snowfall amounts are overdone for u.p. MI, 6 to 12 inches might be all you see, storm is going to weaken that far north tomorrow.
  7. It would appear that all but four of our predicted first high risks are now in the rear view mirror and out of the running with three left standing in May and one in Nov (well the latest of the passed dates is April 9 so that one remains in contention until about the 20th when May 1st takes over). So if today's risk happens to go high, April 9th takes it. No huge contenders on the current model output. These were the forecasts I noted as being April 7 or later: rolltide_130 (Apr 7) freshgeek (Apr 9) cstrunk (May 1) bjc0303 (May 2) GSwizzle83 (May 4) NRGJeff (Nov 18) Would now say around May 10th perhaps. Recent maps remind me of spring 1947 (the Woodward OK tornado which was in early May IIRC). Pretty good call by freshgeek (Apr 9) who also said MS-AL, now under tor watch (enhanced).
  8. 2017/18 Lakes/OV winter snowfall contest

    The 2.5" of snow that fell at GRB on 13th changed the lead with cmillzz back in front by a mere 0.4" ... so this has eliminated GRB as a location that can change the outcome with both cmillzz and Thomp2m now accumulating errors there at the same pace. The remaining locations where they have any leverage on each other (not both in black numbers) are: YXU and IND _ Thomp2m can gain about 5" at YXU and 4" at IND, if that much fell, the total advantage would be 18" (one goes up 9, the other down 9). However, doubtful whether much more snow will fall at these locations. Still, a total of 0.3" would change the lead if nothing else happens in the following list. (0.3" x 2 being the total change). That much seems possible at YXU in particular. APN and MQT both present Thomp2m with chances to move ahead. At APN, that will start to happen if 8.5" more snow falls, and at MQT, if 19.5" more falls. Up to those amounts, both are gaining error amounts. Both of these propositions seem to be about 50-50 to me. STL is the same story for 3.0" or more, anything less does not matter, and that's the most likely outcome. LSE on the other hand can improve cmillz25 after 3.7" falls, which seems quite possible. The total improvement available is 5.8" (2 x 2.9" differential). MKE snow will help Thomp2m from 1.2" to 3.8" (before that they both decrease error totals, after 3.8" they both gain errors). That is a 5.2" differential. It's probably too close to call now. Central Illinois is not in a good position with MQT accumulating errors for him while everyone else still has a cushion, although if this MQT snow is balanced by GRB snow the first four inches won't count against his overall total. Stebo can still do well if there's a lot of snow at the two Ontario locations and FWA. You can check the tables a few posts back and see if you have any chances of overtaking the leaders. You need higher red numbers than their red numbers, or red numbers where they have black numbers, and the differential has to be half of your deficit, for you to have a chance. If you can only find a differential of 50" and you are 120" behind now, you can't catch up. (added Apr 14 1530z) MSP has posted 1.1" for 13th and added 0.2" since midnight. Since forecasts call for 10-15" there, I will leave the tables for a later edit when I expect MSP seasonal total to be higher than now shown although at this point in time the total is actually 63.8" ... MSP is not a factor in the contest since all but IndTenn have already been passed so with that exception we are all gaining the same error scores at MSP now. MLI is the same story. Even if IndTenn gains the full amounts available at these two locations, their score cannot catch any other forecasters on those two alone. (has 39.3" credit in total, catch-up value is 78.6", currently 288.2" behind 14th place. IndTenn needs snowfalls of stupendous proportions at a number of other locations to catch the pack). Overnight snowfalls include 0.7" additional at APN (all forecasters gain that much), 0.6" at LSE, and 5.0" at GRB. As there has been no snow at MQT, Central Illinois is back in the mix now, having used his 4.5" credit shown in the table to get to within 0.3" of cmillzz and passing Thomp2m by 0.1" ... however, these two still have some snow credit at LSE which is forecast to use up their credits today, so the situation in the table will be restored fairly soon since GRB is no longer going to be in play among the three of them. At some point later today, Stebo will also make a pass at the lead since he had 6.6" of credit to use at GRB and still has 1.6" of that left, but he's in the same situation regarding LSE. It looks as though APN is in line to pass minimum forecast during this storm with just 4.7" left now. Most of you have enough credit at APN to keep gaining but I will start to accumulate error points there about near the end of this storm (min forecast as stated 4.7" left to go). This storm is bringing several forecasters in the middle of the scoring table into contention, for example, madwx has a lot of snow credit to use at LSE, GRB and APN. The table will be updated around 23z with the afternoon subtotals. At the moment I have not adjusted it for any of this new snowfall reported this morning and MSP will be passing the value shown during the day, expect that to increase also. I have edited in some estimates with the end of day changes shown in brackets. Those will be replaced with the new actual scoring totals later today. If the storm adds slight amounts at MQT this will be a differential for CI who is already gaining error points there. The next to be passed at MQT would be Stebo who has 8.4" credit left. Contest is very much "up in the air" until this storm ends and we get some indication from the models about any future potential snowfalls. (Apr 15 08z) Using actual values for 14th (all close to earlier estimated totals for 14th) the table has changed yet again and Stebo now has a narrow lead over cmillzz and Thomp2m. It looks like Stebo can hold off both Thomp2m and cmillzz if snow falls at YYZ, YXU and FWA, also some at MKE, but Stebo is vulnerable at APN compared to Thomp2m. More snow appears possible on future dates so this contest is by no means settled yet.
  9. 2017/18 Lakes/OV winter snowfall contest

    (posted earlier today) Looking back to the standings (Mar 7 post edited daily) the lead is now with Thomp2mp by just 1.6" over cmillzz. You could figure this is really 0.2" if cmillzz gets to use his remaining credit of 0.7" at YYZ (which seems likely, although not a guarantee). From that point, the differentials would be at the following locations (any place that both are in the black is not going to affect the contest results for them): Thomp2mp has the advantage at YXU (5.3") and IND (4.3") which if completely used would place the differential at 2 x 9.6" or 19.2" plus the 0.2" left after YYZ. Also both have a credit left to use at MKE and STL but Thomp2mp has 2.7" more at MKE and 4.7" more at STL. Using those requires getting into the differential zone first, which requires 1.6" at MKE and 2.9" at STL. Those seem possible although unlikely for STL. The opposite situation exists only at LSE so that the only chance cmillzz has to win would be to get the YYZ snow and more than 4.2" snow at LSE after which the next 2.7" would be a further advantage before both begin to accumulate. Cmillzz also has 1.1" credit left at GRB. This is an example of how plausible snowfalls at the two locations would affect the outcome: YYZ 1.5" leaves the differential at 0.2" in favor of Thomp2m YXU 2.0" restores the differential to 4.2" IND 0.5" increases the differential to 5.2" MKE 2.0" increases the differential to 6.0" STL 0.2" leaves the differential at 6.0" LSE 7.0" reduces the differential to 1.6" GRB 1.5" changes the outcome to 0.6" win for cmillz So between these two, the outcome depends on what happens at these stations (APN and MQT are also differentials at present, in favor of Thomp2mn) but appear to be beyond the range of the contest totals). Currently third place Central Illinois can easily win also, if there is substantial snow (3" should suffice) in the ORD-MKE-FWA-IND-PIA region, because they have large credits to use in all of those locations and the two ahead do not. A smaller 1-2" snowfall in this region will make things very close all round. However, CI has a disadvantage for MQT where errors are already increasing while others have 10 to 20 inches or more left to reduce their totals. I don't see an easy path to contest victory for any other forecaster but IndTenn can still win with massive snowfalls throughout the region. Stebo has an outside chance with heavy snowfalls in Ontario, Alpena and Green Bay. (posted later today) Snow at some of those locations mentioned, up to 5 p.m., has already moved Central Illinois into second place but it's very close among the top three. I would now expect the lead to keep changing (when MQT alone gets snow, this will be a disadvantage for CI). The main question now is, how much more snow can fall before the season becomes mainly MQT additional snow? And how much will that be? (as of April 13th) Yesterday's 4.8" of snow has moved Central Illinois back into third and the current separation at the top is only 1.8" ... with snow expected in parts of WI (MSP is not in play for the leaders, they are both accumulating errors there), and second place cmillzz holding some advantages over leader Thomp2mp at both LSE and GRB, the lead could change hands depending on what happens at a few other locations. Only last place IndTenn can now benefit from any further snow at MSP or MLI, the total there has passed the rest of our forecasts so we're all adding on new snowfall as the same amount of errors whenever it snows there. At DTW, SDF and PIA, two forecasters have yet to be passed (DAFF and IndTenn at DTW, VPBob21 and IWXwx at SDF and Central Illinois and IndTenn at PIA). Two locations remain with seasonal snowfall below our minimum forecast, STL and APN.
  10. First look at the anomalies after one week ... DCA a lot higher than NYC partly due to midnight high on 7th (67 deg) preventing a big negative anomaly. I calculate that the monthly effect of that is around +0.3. (20 deg for 1/60 of the total input). Just one of those things ... DEN estimated from data available, CF6 only updated to 5th (still no snowfall for 5th-6th to apply to contest although we all have lots to give yet as DEN was only 24.2" before this). ________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _IAH _____ DEN _ PHX _SEA _ actual ___ (7d) _________ --0.3 _--4.6 _--3.3 __ --12.9 _+1.1 _+2.7 ___ --3.0e_ +8.6 _--0.1 _ actual ___(14 d) _________ 0.0 _ --2.8 _--3.7 ___ --9.1 _--0.1 _--1.0 ___ +0.1 _ +7.4 _--0.1 seven day projections _ 8th ____ (p14th - NWS) __--2.3 _--3.7 _--3.3 ___ --8.0 _--1.0 _+2.0 ___ --0.5 _ +7.5 _+0.1 _14th ____ (p21st - NWS) __--1.0 _--2.4 _--3.0 ___ --8.5 _--1.0 _--1.2 ___ +1.0 _ +5.3 _--0.3 eight to sixteen day projections _ 8th ___ (p24th - GFS) ___ --1.3 _--1.7 _--1.5 ___ --4.5 _+1.3 _+3.3 ___ +2.5 _+5.5 _+0.5 _15th __ (p30th - GFS) ____ --1.5 _--2.0 _--2.5 ___ --5.0 _--1.5 _--1.0 ___ --0.5 _+3.0 _--0.5 comments 15th _ Average NWS 7-d error about 1.1 deg, ranges from 2.3 at DCA (mostly because it turned so warm past two days) and 3.0 at IAH (generally too warm, my bias might have corrupted that somewhat), to only 0.1 at PHX and 0.2 at SEA. Also good at BOS (0.4 error there). The coming week appears cool to cold almost everywhere except slightly warmer than average at DEN and PHX, not as hot for PHX as the first half has been. The GFS indicates generally cooler than average from 22nd to end of month also, although PHX should stay closer to normal. On these projections, RodneyS does particularly well, his score would be 768/900. Consensus would be 624/900.
  11. The regional rumble at last update from provisional March scoring looked like a fairly close race, and I think all regular entrants are still in the mix for the individual 2018 contest. So make a note with this long Easter weekend ahead to enter before the late penalties start to dig in (reduced this year to 1% every four hours for first 36h, so if you wake up Sunday and remember, you're not looking at much of a penalty). As always, we're predicting the temperature anomalies (in F deg) relative to 1981-2010 averages or "normals" if anything in this world can be described as normal. _______ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ______ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Good luck, I plan to publicize the contest by booting the regional announcement threads on Thursday 29th or Friday 30th.
  12. spring snowstorm 4/7 -4/8

    I think it's getting ready to snow from RIC to Greensboro NC for a while, 2-4" potential on grassy surfaces at least, but further east the rain will get colder and sleety eventually and could be some snow mixing in but probably no accumulations in southeast VA or e NC.
  13. April 7-8 snow event

    If you are planning to drive all night, you might run into wet snow after Raleigh and through Richmond but volume of traffic should keep the road either wet or slushy rather than icy, could be slippery on exit ramps until past Baltimore if the virga reaches the ground in DC area. Off the road there could be 2 to 4 inch accumulations on grassy surfaces sort of a deal. The low is currently between Charleston SC and Columbia SC and the leading wave has collapsed southeast off the coast, the arctic front has reached Richmond to Danville and currently runs along the NC-VA border before cutting south again. Expect that to be more like Norfolk to Raleigh to Charlotte by midnight. Sleet to snow north of that front.
  14. April 7-8 snow event

    Radar looks like virga on steroids (DC). Low is currently southwest of Augusta GA with a leading wave near RDU, by midnight that leading wave should be east of ORF and the primary low near ILM. This is when snow might begin to develop from RIC to Greensboro NC.
  15. April 7-8 snow event

    Your location says Cary NC which I looked up and you are very close to RDU. If that's where you are asking about, close to the mixing line by about 9 p.m., could get a coating on grassy surfaces. Further north and west up to 3-5" possible.
  16. April 7-8 snow event

    Where do you want to put the decimal in that? Two choices I guess.
  17. April 7-8 snow event

    This looks like a good test for nowcasting because the low is getting squashed down south by the enormous push of cold air in the plains states. Currently it is diving south of Natchez and may not even clear Mobile by much before it begins to recurve a little. I will hazard the guess that DCA to BWI sees rain turning to sleet then snow during the day, and end up with 1.5". Some forum reports may be 2-4". Jackpot likely near RIC to southeast MD with 3-6" outside chance 5-10" max somewhere in that zone.
  18. April 7-8 snow event

    If rain-snow line sets up about Norfolk VA to Raleigh NC then counties west of that could see 3-6" and mountains 5-10" but all depends on track of this OK-AR-MS low later today; for RDU the likely outcome is 0.5" liquid and 1.0" snow out of that, sleet and ice pellets etc.
  19. April 7-8 snow event

    Organized circulation already evident near sw OK / TX border, all signs pointing to a track into GA/SC and out to sea near ILM. Arctic front will wrap around this Saturday night reaching se VA into central NC. Best snow threat is 5 to 8 inch band from central Delmarva across se MD towards RIC and into n/c NC. Leaves open a range of outcomes for I-95 strip from 0.5" to 3.0" depending on exact snowfall axis. You're in the game but RIC should do best and I think the map posted above needs extra snow southeast of DC, would say 4" La Plata.
  20. April 7-8 snow event

    Looks to me like it might produce 3 to 6 inch snowfalls in southern VA and across the south-central Delmarva, trending to trace to 0.5" snowfalls near DCA to BWI and scattered 1" pockets northwest of IAD. Too much development near FL panhandle Saturday afternoon for front to slow down in time for I-95 snowfall potential to develop much beyond 1/2mi S-- type precip there but will beef up closer to stalling front when that reaches VA-NC border, snow may continue into overnight as low develops and moves offshore SC. Maybe one in five chance this moves north in final runs and maxes out closer to DCA-BWI.
  21. April 7-8 snow event

    Frankly, you're better off with a picturesque 2-4" than 6-10" if the trees are out, it will cut down on the tree damage and power cuts. I think it will be maybe 3-6" but that won't be too damaging if that's the total. Can recall a spring snowstorm in late April 1976 in Ontario after a warm spell that placed 8" of snow on almost fully leafed trees and it brought down large branches on mature maples and oaks. You don't need that.
  22. Mid-Atlantic winter 2017-18 snowfall contest

    I would say the latest date that DCA could see measurable snow is perhaps May 2 or 3, for IAD and BWI perhaps May 5 to 8. Toronto had measurable snow on May 25, 1961. A few degrees of latitude further north it can snow into mid-June. So that gives you some idea of the timing vs latitude question involved. The freak snowfall of June 5-6 1816 left measurable snow close to sea level in New England. This weekend thingie looks capable of adding 3" at DCA and 5" at IAD, maybe 4-5 at BWI also. Would not expect much if any at RIC. About seven of these might give me a chance but I only see two.
  23. Cerakoter1984, yes all are welcome here, and I treated your DCA forecast "as is" rounding it off, you may have meant +0.7 but it's a small points differential anyway. I failed to notice that New England were a no show, did notice southeast and rustled up a forecast there, New England you can come in at 35% to end of today then I revert to "the dreaded clock" tick tock. Thank goodness I have a bit of backup again, this high-wire act cannot go on much longer before the NYC masses pick me apart in the secondary. Congrats to so_whats_happening, jaxjagman and Stebo for their lone wolf persistence with very (or pretty) good results for the RR and individually, considering the depth of the opposition (Mid Atl also rather formidable and the PHL duo are on fire, as per avatar). The rumble has not become a stumble yet. March results are posted, so_whats_happening leads (well actually Normal leads, gotta do something about that in April). Table of forecasts April 2018 FORECASTER ___ Region ___ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA so_whats_happening PA/NY _+1.3 _+0.7 _--0.8 __ --1.4 _+1.2 _+1.5 __ +2.9 _+1.5 _+0.7 Cerakoter1984 __ C+W ____ +0.1 _--1.7 _--0.9 __ --2.0 _+0.3 _+0.7 __ --5.2 _+3.7 _+2.1 Scotty Lightning _ PHL _____ +0.5 __0.0 _--0.5 __ --0.5 _+1.0 _+1.0 __ +1.0 _+1.5 _+1.0 ___ Normal _______________ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ____ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ____ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 Roger Smith ____ C+W ____--0.6 _--0.8 _--1.0 __ --1.5 _--1.2 _+4.5 __ --0.8 _+1.1 _--1.0 mappy _________ M A ____ --0.7 _--1.1 _--1.6 __ --0.1 _+0.9 _+0.8 __ --0.9 _+1.1 _+0.2 Orangeburgwx (-30%) SE __ --0.8 _--1.4 _--1.7 __ --2.3 _+2.2 _+0.5 __ +1.6 _+2.7 _+1.5 wxdude64 _ (-2%) M A ____ --0.9 _--0.5 _--1.0 __ --1.4 __0.0 _+0.5 __ +1.1 _+2.1 _--0.3 jaxjagman ______ TNV ____ --1.0 _--1.3 _--1.8 __ --0.8 _+1.4 _+1.0 __ --0.3 _+0.7 _+0.9 Stebo _________ GL/OV ___ --1.0 _--1.5 _--2.0 __ --0.5 _+0.7 _+0.5 __ --1.5 _+0.8 _+0.9 ___ Consensus ___________ --1.0 _--1.3 _--1.5 __ --1.5 _+0.7 _+1.0 __ +1.0 _+1.5 _+0.4 dmillz25 ________ NYC ____ --1.0 _--1.5 _--2.0 __ --2.5 _+1.2 _+1.3 __ +1.5 _+1.5 _+1.5 Tom ___________ PHL _____--1.1 _--0.9 _--0.8 __ --1.1 _+0.2 _+1.2 __ +0.8 _+0.8 _+0.9 DonSutherland.1 _ NYC _____--1.1 _--1.2 _--1.5 __ --3.3 _+0.5 _+1.3 __ +1.0 _+2.4 _--0.4 BKViking _ (-2%)_ NYC _____--1.2 _--1.0 _--1.1 __ --2.0 _+1.5 _+1.0 __ +1.0 _+1.6 _+0.8 hudsonvalley21 __ NYC _____--1.3 _--1.8 _--1.5 __ --0.2 _+0.8 _+0.3 __ --0.6 _+0.2 _+0.4 wxallannj _______ NYC _____--1.3 _--1.8 _--1.8 __ --2.4 _+0.8 _+1.3 __ +1.4 _+1.8 _+0.3 RodneyS ________ M A _____--1.7 _--2.4 _--1.9 __--5.0 _+0.2 _+0.9 __ +1.0 _+3.2 _--1.0 RJay ___________ NYC _____--2.5 _--3.0 _--3.0 __--1.5 _--1.0 __0.0 ____0.0 __ 0.0 _+0.5 ___________________________________________________________________________________ Consensus for 17 forecasts is median value (9th ranked). Color coding (red, blue) shows the warmest and coldest forecasts. Normal has more extreme (or equally) for several of those, but extremes among forecasters shown also. Good luck, the snowfall contest continues to be updated in the February thread, before any updates today DonS and hudsonvalley21 were a close 1,2 in that. Could go for a while yet as Canada exports its most famous natural resource at no cost. (and I don't mean Don Cherry but if you want him ... )
  24. Hoping somebody from the southeast subforum can post a forecast before late penalties get too large as you don't have an entry for April yet.
  25. The monthly temperature forecast contest has been a feature of this forum and its predecessor (Eastern) for a long time. But it's hosted in the general interest forum and so as host, I would like to broaden the appeal and get more people involved in the contest. To help with that, the contest will now be more than just an individual competition, although that part remains. Now it's also going to take best scores from each regional forum and determine a champion in the "Regional Rumble." You can enter both here in this thread, or over at the home thread which is here: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50671-january-2018-temperature-forecast-contest-regional-rumble-begins/ The contest asks you to predict the temperature anomalies in F deg for nine locations: (eastern) DCA, NYC, BOS (central) ORD, ATL, IAH (western) DEN, PHX, SEA The regional aspect will take best scores for each of those three groups of three stations, and that may come from different contributors within the regional forum's entrants. And if you enter all twelve months of the year you will be participating in the individual contest as well. All rules can be reviewed over at the thread linked above, but basically you get a score out of 100 based on how close you are to the actual anomaly (relative to 1981-2010). You lose 2 points (in most cases) for each 0.1 deg error. Months that are either more anomalous than +/- 5 degrees or that score worse than 60 for top score go to secondary scoring rules that avoid a lot of zero scores for different forecasts. So with that said, here's your easy portal for entering the forecast contest, you don't have to go "over there" but instead you can stay in the comfort of your own regional forum and enter from here. I will collect all forecasts posted here and reproduce them in a table of forecasts. This thread will stay open with titles changing as we approach monthly deadlines. Usually the forecasts are due by 06z of the 1st of each month with time penalties (1% per 4h late for 36h, then 1% per hour). This first time out with New Years and the storm interests, the deadline is shifted to the 4th at 08z. If you enter, thanks and good luck! (this thread will appear in all regional forums)