Roger Smith

Weak arctic front is being wrapped into core as low enters Atlantic and a gradient fr S- to S+ conditions will develop in c/n NJ, NYC and w LI, expect 2-3" ISP and JFK, 3-5" LGA-NYC-EWR and 5-8" parts of n NJ and seNY, w CT.

Largest snowfalls at NYC for Jan 18, 19 and 20 For Jan 18, record daily snow was only 5.0" (1875); tied for lowest daily record in Jan. (6, 9 also 5.0" records) For Jan 19, record daily snow 9.0" 1936. (a total snow of 9.2" 18-19) For Jan 20, record daily snow 11.1" 1978. (a total snow of 13.6" 19-20) Other significant snowfalls: 9.9" Jan 19-20 1961 (4.4" + 5.5") 7.0" Jan 20 1925 6.0" Jan 19 1869 5.7" Jan 20 1937 4.0" Jan 19 1886 4.0" Jan 18-19, 2009 (2.2" + 1.8") Before NYC records began, a blizzard hit n.e. states on Jan 19, 1857, 18" was recorded by Caswell in Providence RI, and it was followed by extreme cold (-14 F on 21st and 22nd). Daytime readings stayed below zero F. Jan 1857 was coldest on record at Toronto (1840 to present) and Feb 1857 became very mild with severe ice jam flooding reported in Ontario, New York state and New England. Temps rose into 60s and some heavy rainfalls were reported; march went back to being very cold and the entire spring was cold.

The second of the three "threats" looks way suppressed and OTS, but the third one looks interesting. The first one is beginning to lock into a 3-6" event.

This is a scaled down version of historical big coastal storms followed by severe cold, so far no guidance raises the intensity to a major snowstorm (12"+) but 4 to 7 inches ain't too shabby. I wonder if there will be a last minute intensification trend on track already pretty solidly set? I will say 4.5" DCA, 6.0" IAD and BWI, jacks a bit north near 8" if no last ditch intensification, probably the flow is too flat to allow for it. That's good in a way, colder air won't be forced to retreat, it's a glider and a slider.

Is there any easy answer to the question, what is the difference between an "A.I." weather model and the regular models? At first glance, it would see that all weather models are "A.I."

Anomalies and projections ... _____________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA ___ (anom1-16) ______ -4.2 _-2.3 _ -1.1 ___ -3.8 _-4.9 _-4.1 ___ -4.2 _ +0.9 _-1.0 __ (p anom 1-31) ____ -5.0 _-3.5 _ -2.5 ___ -6.5 _-6.5 _-5.5 ___ -5.0 __ 0.0 _-2.5 ___ final anoms _____ -3.3 _-2.5 _ -1.1 ____ -2.6 _-4.1 _-4.4 ___ -5.9 _-1.2 _-3.7 Very cold intervals for all locations expected to dominate second half, PHX stays closer to normal and will be near +1.5 before seeing any negatives, IAH possibly too conservative if snow cover develops as it can create -25 anoms for several days, DEN is also going to recover to around -2 before dropping back, and SEA will have a very cold final week and drop a bit further below, despite possibly no snow cover in Puget Sound region (it has not snowed s of Anacortes WA so far in winter 24-25 at low elevations, lots above 1200' ... a little snow was reported in BLI and YVR in Dec, bare now). (22nd _ IAH and DEN were reduced by 1.0 in projections for scoring) (Feb 1st _ Final anomalies posted above, scoring adjustments in progress) Snowfall contest updates are now re-posted on Feb 5.

A very dry first two weeks (0.10" at NYC). On pace to break record for driest Jan, top 25 are: _01 __ 0.58 __ 1981 _02 __ 0.66 __ 1970 _03 __ 0.77 __ 1955 _04 __ 0.94 __ 1876 _05 __ 0.96 __ 1896 _06 __ 1.00 __ 1985 _07 __ 1.10 __ 1969 _08 __ 1.28 __ 1916 _09 __ 1.39 __ 1967 _10 __ 1.54 __ 1956 _11 __ 1.65 __ 1954 _12 __ 1.66 __ 1901 _13 __ 1.68 __ 1992 _14 __ 1.70 __ 1957 _15 __ 1.72 __ 1980 _16 __ 1.78 __ 1933 _17 __ 1.86 __ 1946 t18 __ 1.87 __ 1928 t18 __ 1.87 __ 1984 t20 __ 1.88 __ 1872 t20 __ 1.88 __ 1961 t22 __ 1.93 __ 1963 t22 __ 1.93 __ 2002 t22 __ 1.93 __ 2020 _25 __ 2.01 __ 1894 __________ We'll see where 2025 finishes, if among these.

I've heard of the illuminati and now we have the eliminati, a group that may have a few more members by next week.

Severe cold to follow snow (or no snow) window.

Pattern looks like 3-6" Jan 12-13 followed by 2-3 days of severe cold Jan 14-16. It can still evolve into 5-10" if trof digs a bit better.

What's the max report so far? (I don't have time to read last 30 pages)

Any actual storm in time frame Jan 11-14 will be tapping on tidal energy peak as moon passes its northern declination max on Jan 12, and full moon is Jan 14. In my research, storm index values in eastern N America generally peak at 2-3x random expectation in this time window; another peak will occur Jan 26-29 with the opposite pair of events, southern max and new moon. The separation is longer each "syzygy" as declination cycle is 27.32 days (sidereal) and full moon period is 29.53 days (synodic). By June, new moon and northern max coincide. Research establishes that moon is not setting up steering patterns so it's a second-order energy peak entirely dependent on other factors setting up the scenario it works within, but if there's any sort of reasonable pattern, Jan 11-12 is likely to be a "big event." If this were a torch pattern, a northern max low would be expected to be a strong cutter bringing warmth and rainfall to n.e. states, if it were a near-average zonal flow it would likely be a mild day followed by strong W-NW winds. The models are clearly picking p the energy peak, depends on the degree of suppression as to where the deep low goes once passing 85W. In previous years, snowfall events around Jan 11-12: 7.8" Jan 10-11, 1954 5.7" Jan 11 1991 9.1" Jan 11-12, 2011 12.5" Jan 12-13, 1964 8.7" Jan 13 1939

Call (first and last) ... 7 to 12 in widespread in all areas, tapering to 4 in s VA. DCA _ 7.5" IAD _ 11.0" FDK _ 12.5" BWI _ 9.5" SBY _ 5.5" RIC _ 3.7"

Dr Ray, Dr Ray to the operating theater ... the patient refuses to die and we've promised the organs to another institute ... surgery is required ... Dr Ray ...

I waived late penalties to earlier Friday so if you want to get started at a very reasonable 5% penalty (by 18z Sat) you can jump in.

__ Forecasts for January 2025 __ FORECASTER _____________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA ___ Normal _________________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 wxallannj __________________________-1.8 _ -1.5 _ -1.3 ___ -2.1 _ -2.4 _ -1.2 ___ -0.7 _ +1.4 _ +2.0 hudsonvalley21 ___________________ -1.9 _ -1.7 _ -1.5 ___ -1.1 __-2.8 _ -0.4 ___ -1.2 _ +1.9 _ +1.4 maxim ____________________________ -2.5 _ -1.5 _ -1.0 ____0.0 _ -2.0 _ +1.1 ___ +2.4 _ +3.5 _ +1.0 RodneyS __________________________-2.8 _ -0.9 _ -0.4 __ -0.8 _ -2.8 _-0.2 ___ +0.9 _ +0.6 _-0.3 Roger Smith ______________________ -3.0 _ -2.5 _ -2.0 __ -3.5 _ -4.0 _ +1.0 ___ +6.0 _ +6.0 _ +3.5 Scotty Lightning __________________ -3.0 _ -3.5 _ -4.0 __ -4.5 _ -2.0 _ -2.0 ___ +2.0 _ +2.5 _ +1.5 BKViking __________________________-4.0 _ -2.7 _ -2.2 __ -2.4 _ -4.2 _ -1.0 ___ +0.9 _ +2.2 _ +3.0 ___ Consensus ____________________-4.0 _ -2.7 _ -2.0 __ -2.4 _ -4.2 _-0.7 ___+0.9 _ +2.2 _ +2.9 wxdude64 ________________________ -4.1 _ -2.7 __ -1.2 __ -2.3 _ -5.2 _ -0.9 ___ -0.5 _ +2.1 _ +2.9 so_whats_happening ______________-4.4 _ -3.1 _ -2.6 __ -3.7 _ -5.1 __ -1.6 ___ -1.2 __ +2.8 _ +1.5 RJay ______________________________ -4.5 _ -3.0 _ -2.0 __ -2.5 _ -5.0 __ 0.0 ___ +1.0 _ +4.5 _ +4.0 DonSutherland1 ___________________ -5.0 _ -2.5 _ -1.0 __ -2.0 _ -5.5 _ -0.7 ___ +0.8 _ +3.2 _ +3.0 StormchaserChuck _______________ -5.3 _ -4.4 _ -3.6 __ -7.0 _ -5.0 __ 0.0 ___ +5.7 _ +6.2 _ +4.2 Tom _______________________________ -5.7 _ -4.5 _ -2.9 __ -4.1 _ -5.9 __-1.1 ____ -0.1 _ +4.2 _ +4.1 Persistence (Dec 2024) ___________ +0.2 _ -0.9 _ -0.4 __+1.5 _+1.5 _ +5.7 ___+8.2 _ +6.5 _ +2.0 ____________________________ warmest and coldest forecasts color coded; Normal is warmest for DCA, NYC, BOS, ORD, ATL; coldest for PHX. consensus is median forecast (ranked 7 of 13 not incl Normal or Persistence)

According to my reading of the data base, NYC had its warmest year on record in 2024, average was 57.9 F, I get 57.8 for 2023, and in 3rd place now were 2012 and 2020 at 57.3 F. Wondering if my data for 2023 and 2024 are accurate to nearest 0.1.

I believe we usually observe a lenient policy on January late penalties so I won't assess any, and feel free to edit forecasts all day 2nd and to whenever I do the table of forecasts on Friday (likely to be early as I do a lot of wx-contest work late evenings, it gets busy for me with 3 contests on different fora but the busy interval is basically over by the 5th and so I just keep at it until it's all done.

___ The history of the contest (with personal best scores) __ updated to end of 2024 ___ Before 2013, the contest was managed by a number of people including but not limited to Chicago Storm, mallow and Ellinwood. In 2013 I began to score the contest, although there was no max-60 rule and just six stations until 2014. In 2014 the three western locations were offered as "optional" and the scores were not combined. Contest scoring reports were separated into two groups (original six and western three), but by 2017 the scores were combined so total scoring was out of 900 each month. In 2013, RodneyS was the annual contest winner and DonSutherland1 was third. We used to have a considerably larger contest field of 30-40 lasting to about 2017, and some who have departed are long-time members still active, others have left Am-Wx or at least are now operating under a different username). I have added results from 2013, bearing in mind, totals are out of 600, not 900 (no western stations yet) ... month _______ winning score (/600) _____ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active JAN ___________ 452 _Mallow, 448 midlo snow maker __ 436 RodneyS FEB ___________ 512 __ Ineedsnow ______ Don Sutherland1 __ 492 MAR _____________ 457 __ wxdude64 APR ___________ 466 __Sacrus __________ RodneyS _ 462 _____ no snowfall contest winter 2012-13 MAY _____________ 534 __ Isotherm _520 Ellinwood __ 506 BKViking (tied OhLeary) __ severe storm bonus contest, subjective post-mortem* ___ ___ ____ ____ _____ ______ _______ ________ __________ __________ *pottercounty, Ellinwood, MNT, ChIcago Storm were mentioned as best JUN ___________ 556 __ Roger Smith _ 550 Mallow _ 546 Midlo Snow Maker JUL ___________ 460 __ Mallow, 438 Sacrus __ 424 wxdude64 AUG ___________530 __ UncleW __ 524 Chicago Storm __ 522 Roger Smith SEP ___________ 538 __ MN_Transplant __ four others, then 472 _ SD (Scotty L nowadays) OCT __________ 544 __ forkyfork ________522 _BKViking tied 4th __ Midlo Snow Maker won seasonal max contest for 6 locs (RodneyS t2nd w UncleW) NOV __________ 470 __ RodneyS ___ four seasons contest did not begin until 2014-15 year DEC ___________448 __ MetallicWx366 ___ DonSutherland1 _ 392 __ Winner of 2013 contest (combined score) was RodneyS (5215) with Midlo Snow Maker second at 4967, DonS 3rd at 4851. No extreme forecast tracking yet. In 2014, although scores were not combined, I have added them and found these monthly wins ( was going to place numbers in brackets to represent scoring if a max-60 rule was in effect but could find few cases of revisable scores, a few such low scoring months exist but those with increased scores did not come very close to winning any month): ___ note your personal best score is also tracked even if you didn't win that month. month _______ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active JAN ___________ 700 __ Roger Smith FEB ___________ 558 __ midlo snow maker ___ Don Sutherland1 __ 532 MAR _____________ 677 __ Don Sutherland1 APR ___________ 802 __Don Sutherland1 ___ ( Mallow 798 ) ___ midlo snow maker won snowfall contest (Tom t4 best of current forecasters) MAY _____________ 736 __ Don Sutherland1 ___ ( Isotherm 728 ) JUN ___________ 810 __ Mallow ___________ Roger S _ 808 ... hudsonvalley21 _ 794 JUL ___________ 592 __ Roger Smith (also Cpick79 (N of Pike) tied 592) AUG __________ 608 __ Don Sutherland1 SEP ___________ 742 __ Midlo Snow Maker ___ Don Sutherland1 and BKViking _ 716 OCT __________ 584 __ wxallannj (600) ___ Damage in Tolland won seasonal max contest (RodneyS 2nd) NOV __________ 609 __ Roger Smith (627) ___ four seasons contest did not begin until 2014-15 year DEC __________ 592 __ Midlo Snow Maker ___ wxallannj _ 462 __ Winner of 2014 contest (combined score) was Roger Smith (7195 would be 7213 now) while DonS totalled 7186. This close finish was not recorded at the time and Don was close to top of western scoring. Roger Smith also won the extreme forecast award (14-2). 2015 _ scores now combined making this project a lot simpler to navigate ... month _______ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active JAN __________ 656 __ Isotherm __________ Tom _ 542 FEB ________ about 500* __ DonS ... ______ __ __ BKViking won snowfall contest for winter on a different scoring system MAR __________ 507 __ Absolute humidity ____ DonS _ 503 APR _________796 __ Midlo Snow Maker __ wxallannj _ 756 MAY ________ 535 __ Stebo _______________ RodneyS _ 495 JUN ________ 596 __ wxdude64 JUL ________ 765 __ DonSutherland1 AUG _______ 696 __ SD (Scotty L) __ (later realized SD was Scotty Lightning, not sure when changed) SEP ________ 619 __ RJay ____________ __ __ SD (Scotty L) won seasonal max contest, Tom was 2nd. OCT _______ 714 __ Damage in Tolland ____ DonS 644 NOV _______ 774 __ ksammut _Ohwx 752 __DonS 726 ___ first four seasons contest winner Isotherm, DonS 4th (Mallow 2nd, msm 3rd) DEC _______ 487 __ snoski14 _______________Roger Smith 454 (very mild Dec 2015, scoring quite low for most) The highest combined score for 2015 was 6944 (Isotherm) and DonS was third at 6499. (D in T was 2nd). Damage in Tolland also won extreme forecast award (11-0), RJay and RodneyS (5-2) were best of currently active forecasters. * Feb 2015 was a very cold month, low scoring ... I proposed a max 60 rule in play but it was left out for 2015 ... if it were used, DonS would have won with about 500 pts. The actual high score was 383 for mikehobbyst. _______________________ 2016 _ The max-60 rule was still not adopted, and scoring for DEN and PHX was quite low in Feb 2016 but I couldn't find any potential winning scores among those who would have seen improved scores. No doubt our current forecasters would have scored higher if they alone had been boosted. month _______ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active JAN ______ 724 __ wxdude64 FEB ______ 534 __ Midlo Snow Maker __ RodneyS _ 446 MAR ______665 __Maxim ______________ DonS _ 637 APR ______ 710 __ wxallannj __________ __ __ winter snow contest won by Mallow, wxdude64 (5th) had high score of current active forecasters MAY ______ 708 __ Don Sutherland1 JUN ______ 702 __ Damage in Tolland __ RodneyS __ 658 JUL ______ 754*__ OHweather 754 _____ wxdude64, hudsonvalley21 _ t744 __ *(Consensus won wit 756) AUG ______ 646 __ RJay SEP ______ 698 __ Maxim _______________ RJay _ 632 ____ Summer max contest co-winners Maxim and Mallow, RodneyS was 3rd OCT _____ 580 __ Maxim _______________ RJay _ 560 NOV _____ 650 __ Don Sutherland1 ____ four seasons winners (tied) DonS and RJay DEC _____ 631 __ BKViking (despite 6% late penalty) DonSutherland1 won the annual contest with 7139 points. Damage in Tolland won extreme forecast award 9-0. Among currently active forecasters, RodneyS in fourth (7-3) was top currently active. 2017 still went forward without max-60 scoring and contests were not yet fully merged. The January scores were very low in eastern and central regions, due to very mild conditions. If max-60 had been applied, they would have been higher by at least 100 in some cases. Top scores were as low as 17 and 20. A much smaller adjustment was required in February 2017, where ORD had a top score of 49, and it was recorded by the eventual contest winner RJay. March also needed adjusting and after a discussion, we used a modified version of max-60 scoring. Score adjustments shown here use the current version. month _______ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active JAN _______ 452 (587) _ Don Sutherland1 FEB ________587 (598) _ RJay MAR _______518 (556) _ RodneyS _________ Mercurial won snowfall contest with RodneyS a close second. APR _______ 628 __ RJay MAY _______ 670 __ Don Sutherland1 ___ (Normal _ 702 actually "won" contest) JUN _______ 694 __ wxallannj JUL ________778 __ RJay AUG _______ 770 __ Don Sutherland1 SEP ________ 725 __ rainsucks ___________ BKViking _ 589 ____ CCM won seasonal max, one point ahead of BKViking OCT _______ 645 __ rainsucks ___________ BKViking _ 627 NOV _______ 532 (556) _ RodneyS _______ RodneyS also won four seasons contest for 2017 DEC _______ 614 __ Don Sutherland1 The annual contest winner for 2017 was RJay, scoring 6417 (would have been closer to 6600 using current scoring). Extreme forecast winner was also RJay at 8-0. By late 2017 the contest turnout was beginning to look fairly similar to 2022-23, with perhaps three or four additional players. To drum up support I came up with the "Regional Rumble" concept for 2018 which compared scores of top forum sub-regional forecasters in a team format. This worked for a while but the overwhelming superiority of NYC and mid-Atlantic had a chilling effect and by end of 2018 we were pretty much back to square one, and the "Regional Rumble" went the way of the Edsel and robots who do housework. SD changed to Scotty Lightning during 2018, can't tell when as software changed username before I changed name in scoring tables. 2018 As noted above, "Regional Rumble" took place in 2018. Best regional score (eastern, central, western) from any forecaster in sub-forum was used to determine format scoring. Also, max-60 finally made it to scoring system, so 2018 scores are directly comparable to more recent years. month _____ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active JAN _______ 640 _ Mercurial __________ Don Sutherland1 _ 536 ___ "Regional Rumble" winner Central/western FEB _______ 449 _ so_whats_happening (despite 4% late pen) ___ "Regional Rumble" winner Philly MAR ______ 684 _ RodneyS ____________ "Regional Rumble" winner Mid Atlantic. APR _______ 627 _ RodneyS ____________ "Regional Rumble" winner NYC MAY _______ 633 _ Roger Smith ________ "Regional Rumble" winner Central/West ___ snowfall contest winner Don Sutherland1 JUN _______ 744 _ BKViking (742 Tom) _ "Regional Rumble" winner NYC JUL _______ 737 _ RodneyS _____________ "Regional Rumble" winner Mid Atlantic AUG ______ 618 _ Don Sutherland1 ______ "Regional Rumble" winner NYC SEP _______ 688 _ RJay _________________ "Regional Rumble" winner NYC ___ seasonal max contest winner Don Sutherland1 OCT _______ 650 _ Scotty Lightning ____ "Regional Rumble" winner Mid Atlantic NOV _______ 527 _ Scotty Lightning (Normal 540) __ "Regional Rumble" winner Philly ___ Four Seasons winner wxallannj DEC _______ 572 _ wxallannj _____________"Regional Rumble" winner Philly (annual NYC) ___ Annual contest winner Scotty L (6393) _______________ _______________ _________________ _________________ extreme forecast winner Roger Smith (15-1) 2019 _ Contest entrants now limited to current group plus Stebo who only entered first four, RJay also opted out for rest of year around May. Regional Rumble no longer in operation. Two guest appearances in 2019 by jakkelwx (July and Dec), and one each for tplbge (June), smerby (July), and Orangeburg Wx (Oct). month _____ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active JAN _______ 676 _ hudsonvalley21 FEB _______ 585 _ stebo (despite 3% late pen) _ RodneyS _ 550 MAR ______ 737 _ wxdude64 _________ snowfall contest winner RodneyS (final report edited back from end of snow in APR-MAY) APR _______ 707 _ RodneyS MAY _______ 658 _ RodneyS JUN _______ 792 _ wxdude64 JUL _______ 686 _ Roger Smith AUG _______672 _ Scotty Lightning SEP _______ 600 _ Roger Smith ______ seasonal max contest winner wxallannj OCT _______ 682 _ Orangeburg Wx __ Don Sutherland1 586 NOV _______ 679 _ Roger Smith ______Four Seasons winner RodneyS (consensus marginally better score, based on ranks not points in 2019) DEC _______ 601 _ wxallannj __________Annual contest winner wxdude64 (7114) (RodneyS 7106) ___ Extreme forecast winner Roger Smith (27-8) ... also Roger Smith had a larger total of best forecasts but with quite a few very low scores, and so ended up middle of annual scoring table. 2020 _ The year began with the current group of regulars (except for so_whats_happening who had been active around 2016-18 but not in 2019 or 2020), and a number of new faces, some of who entered more than once during 2020. Brian5671 entered eight, jakkelwx seven, yoda four, and rclab, dwave, Maxim and Rhino16 one each. Maxim was quite regularly entered in contests around 2014 to 2017. month _____ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active JAN _______ 559 _ RodneyS FEB _______ 701 _ RodneyS MAR ______ 638 _ DonSutherland1 ___ snowfall contest winner wxallannj (final report edited back from end of snow in APR-MAY) APR _______ 595 _ DonSutherland1 ... (632_Normal was actual winner) MAY _______ 726 _ RodneyS JUN _______ 726 _ RJay (despite 2% late penalty) JUL _______ 664 _ RJay AUG _______732 _ Roger Smith SEP _______ 794 _ RodneyS __________ seasonal max contest winner RodneyS, wxallannj was 2nd by one point. OCT _______ 690 _ Yoda _____________ hudsonvalley21 _ 660 NOV _______ 579 _ Roger Smith ______Four Seasons winner RodneyS DEC _______ 730 _ DonSutherland1 ___Annual contest winner RodneyS (7223) __ extreme forecast winner Roger Smith 17-5 (RodneyS was 15-4). RJay at 13-0 _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ had the best differential. 2021 __ The year began with the current regular entrants participating. Deformation Zone entered six from July to Dec. Stormchaser Chuck appeared in only one (NOV), and had previously entered a few contests as "A few universes below normal" (I think) in previous years. The seasonal max contest ran in a separate thread in an effort to attract extra forecasts (none were submitted). The infamous heat dome struck and SEA had a seasonal max of 108! Despite missing that by 16 deg, wxallannj won the contest. Our highest forecast for SEA was 99F. At my own location, an all time max of 113 was recorded. month _____ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active JAN _______ 678 _ DonSutherland1 FEB _______ 569 _ RodneyS MAR ______ 561 _ so_whats_happening and wxdude64 tied APR _______ 638 _ BKViking _________ snowfall contest winner RJay (final report edited back from end of snow in MAY) MAY _______ 700 _ Tom _ (Normal 716 was actual winner) _ wxallannj 696 _ a close finish with different outcome relative to 1991-2020 normals announced during month JUN _______ 609 _ Roger Smith _______ first contest with 1991-2020 values used. JUL _______ 680 _ RodneyS _ Normal 686 was actual winner AUG _______736 _ Roger Smith SEP _______ 630 _ RJay (629 DonS) __ seasonal max contest winner wxallannj (separate thread). OCT _______ 656 _ RJay (despite 1% late penalty) NOV _______ 685 _ Roger Smith ______Four Seasons winner DonSutherland1 DEC _______ 518 _ RodneyS ___Annual contest winner DonSutherland1 (7011) RodneyS (6927) __ __ __ extreme forecast outcome very similar to previous year ... winner Roger Smith 16-3, RodneyS was 15-1, RJay at 12-0. 2022 __ The contest featured more regular appearances by Stormchaser Chuck who made eight appearances; George001 entered DEC to enter snowfall contest, and added temperatures. The highlight of the year was probably the highest annual totals to date. RodneyS had a very good second half of the year. month _____ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active JAN _______ 682 _ wxdude64 FEB _______ 690 _ DonSutherland1 MAR ______ 756 _ Tom APR _______ 676 _ RJay _________ snowfall contest winner RodneyS (final report edited back from end of snow in MAY) MAY _______660 _ DonSutherland1 _ (RJay 658 after 1% late penalty) JUN _______ 718 _ Roger Smith JUL _______ 728 _ so_whats_happening AUG _______682 _ Roger Smith SEP _______ 730 _ RodneyS ____ seasonal max contest winner RJay OCT _______ 670 _ RodneyS NOV _______ 618 _ BKViking ____ Four Seasons winner Rodney with DonSutherland1 only two points back iso DEC _______ 740 _ RodneyS ___Annual contest winner Rodney S (7690) ... 2nd wxdude64 _ 7488 ... 3rd DonS _ 7462 (best totals in report so far) ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ (swh 11/12 contests, prorated score would be 7509). __ __ __ extreme forecast outcome very similar to previous two years ... winner Roger Smith 16-7, RodneyS was 12-2, Stormchaser Chuck from 8/12 contests made a good score of 9.5-1. (unlike previous reports 2022 includes a reduction for ties, comparable numbers are 18-7, 14-2, 10-1.) 2023 __ The current contest year will be fully reported going forward and then this entire report will be moved to end of DEC thread. Stormchaser Chuck has continued to enter a few but not all contests, and swh has been somewhat occasional so far at 7/11 to NOV. Rhino16 became a new regular forecaster in March. Rainsucks and Terpeast have each entered one contest. Tom missed March due to injury and is doing a great job of gradually catching up to the pack (already past your host). month _____ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active JAN _______ 554 _ DonSutherland1 FEB _______ 674 _ Stormchaser Chuck __ RJay 657 MAR ______ 513 _ DonSutherland1 APR _______ 652 _ wxdude64 _______ snowfall contest winner Scotty Lightning MAY _______700 _ tied wxallannj, hudsonvalley21 _ Consensus actually won with 720 JUN _______ 636 _ RodneyS JUL _______ 746 _ wxallannj AUG _______722 _ DonSutherland1 SEP _______ 750 _ RodneyS OCT _______690 _ Roger Smith _ (so_whats_happening 687 lost 7 pts to late pen) NOV _______ 656 _ Rhino16 _____ wxallannj 648 _____ Don S wins four seasons contest, wxallannj second DEC _______ 572 _ wxallannj _________________________ RJay (18-1) wins extreme forecast contest ______________________________________________________ Don S wins annual contest (7399), wxallannj second (7170) =========================================== 2024 _ JAN _______ 674 _ Rodney S FEB _______ 613 _ rainsucks __ wxallannj (554) MAR ______ 762 _ RJay (758 DonS) APR _______ 794 _ Roger S (774 wxall5annj _ p.b.) __________ RodneyS wins snowfall contest (DonS 2nd) MAY _______ 738 _ wxallannj JUN ________ 737 _ Rhino16__ Scotty L (596) JUL ________ 704 _ Roger S AUG ________692 _ Roger S ___ seasonal max winner Tom SEP ________ 664 _ RJay ___ persistence (706) only win against field so far (not tracked before 2023) OCT ________665 _ Stormchaser Chuck ____ RodneyS (540) NOV ________688 _ Roger S _____ four seasons winner wxallannj DEC ________675 _ Stormchaser Chuck ____ BKViking (659) ____ wxallannj annual winner, DonS 2nd _____________________________________________________ Scotty Lightning wins extreme forecasts 9-0 (RS 9-3, rainsucks 9-3) _______________________________________________________________ Summary of contest wins, best scores 2014 to 2024 By Dec 2024, 132 contests and 11 years of contests are now complete. This table is updated during 2025 contest year. For each element scored, +field means additional wins only against current eleven regular players (not including Stormchaser Chuck, Rhino16 or rainsucks), and that format also exists for last three groups (winter snowfall, summer max, extreme forecasts, four seasons _ nine years tracked) but no headings identify add-on values. A score of 0.5 indicates a tied result except for a conversion to best against current field from a tied win. Best monthly score over eleven years is shown in brackets beside forecaster name. Wins in 2013 not counted in table, as formats were different. RodneyS won contest in 2013. FORECASTER _____ Wins (Mo) _+field__ total ___ Wins (Yr)_+field_total _ Snow _ Summer _ Extreme _ Four Seasons DonSutherland1 (802) __ 21 _____ 8.5 ___29.5 ______ 3 _____ 1 ____ 4 ______ 1 _______ 1 _______ 0 ________ 2.5, 1, 3.5 __ RodneyS (794) __________20 ______ 5 ____ 25 _______ 3 _____ 0 ____ 3 ______3,1,4 ___ 1,2,3 ___ 0,1.5,1.5 ___ 4 ____ Roger Smith (808) ______18.5 ____ 2.5 ___ 21.0 ______ 1 _____ 0 _____ 1 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 6 ________ 0 ____ RJay (778) ______________ 12 ______ 3 _____15________ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 1 _______ 1 ______ 2,0.5,2.5__0.5, 0, 0.5 __ wxallannj (770) __________8.5 ______4 ____ 12.5 ______ 1 _____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 1 _______ 2 _______ 0 ________ 2 ____ wxdude64 (792) _________6.5_____ 0.5____ 7.0 ______ 1 _____ 0 _____ 1 ______ 0,1,1 _____ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ Midlo Snow Maker (746) __5 ______ --_____ 5 _______ 0 _____--_____ 0 _______ 1 _______0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ BKViking (744) ___________4.5 _____ 3.5 ___8.0 ______ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 1 _______0,1,1 ______ 0 ________ 0 ____ Scotty L (SD) __ (744) ____ 4 ______ 1 _____ 5 _______ 1 _____ 0 ______ 1 ______ 1 _______ 1 ________ 1 ________ 0 ____ StormchaserChuck (724) _3 ______ --_____ 1 _______ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ Maxim (698) ______________3 ______--_____ 3 _______ 0 _____--______ 0 ______ 0 ______ 0.5 ______ 0 ________ 0 ____ rainsucks (725) ___________3 ______ --_____ 3 _______ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ so_whats_happening(728)_2.5*_____0 ____2.5*_____ 0______ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ Tom (756) _________________2 ______ 1 _____ 3 ________ 0______ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0, 1, 1 ___ 2 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ Damage in Tolland (714) __ 2 ______ -- ____ 2 ________ 0 _____ --_____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 1 ________ 2 ________ 0 ____ Stebo (712)_______________ 2 ______ --_____ 2 ________ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ Rhino16 (737) _____________2 _______--_____ 2 ________ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ hudsonvalley21 (794) _____ 1 ______ 1.5____ 2.5 ______ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ Mallow (810) ______________ 1 ______ --_____ 1 ________ 0 _____ --_____ 0 ______ 0 _______1.5 _______0 ________ 0 ____ Isotherm (760) _____________1 ______ --_____ 0 ________ 1 _____ --_____ 1 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 1 ____ OHweather (754) __________1 ______ --_____ 0 ________ 0 _____ --_____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ Absolute humidity _________ 1 ______ --_____ 1 ________ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ ksammut (774) ____________ 1 ______ --_____ 1 ________ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ Snoski14 ___________________1 ______ --_____ 1 ________ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ Mercurial ___________________1 ______ --_____ 1 ________ 0______ --_____ 0 ______ 1 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ Orangeburg Wx (682) ______1 ______ --_____ 1 ________ 0______ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ Yoda (690) _________________1 ______ --_____ 1 ________ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ CPick79 (N of Pike) ________0.5 ____ -- ____ 0.5 _______ 0 _____ -- _____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ mikehobbyst _______________ 1 ______ --_____ 1 ________ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ CCM _______________________ 0 ______ --_____ 0 ________ 0 _____ --_____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 1 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ * so_whats_happening had a higher raw score by four points than Oct 2023 contest winner Roger S but 1% late penalties on seven of nine reduced it to three points lower. (following not counted against wins above) Consensus (756) ___________ 2 Normal (720) _______________ 4 Persistence (706) __________ 1 Note: Best scores 810 Mallow and 808 Roger Smith, also hudsonvalley21 (794) occurred in same month (June 2014). blazes556, not a monthly winner at any point, scored 778. April 2014 also produced notably good scores, DonS 802 and Mallow 798, and goobagooba, despite never winning a month, had a score of 772 (also 756 in June 2014). Forecasters with no listed high score have not broken 720 so far and a later search will hopefully uncover actual high scores, also cannot confirm some of lower entries for high score. Somewhat sadly, I can see the field of forecasters slowly reducing to the current core, and you wonder if some are still active at all, but it is what it is. UPDATED to DEC 2024 and FOUR SEASONS, ANNUAL and EXTREME FORECASTS 2024

Large changes can and probably will happen in 6-10 day intervals.

Congrats to wxallannj for winning 2024 contest. Don closed the scoring gap a little in Dec, but it was still a decisive margin. Only wxallannj and DonS outdid consensus; RJay was third and even if all late penalties were restored position would be essentially same. The pack were very closely spaced after fourth place so_whats_happening. Just 65 points separated 5th and 8th positions. Extreme forecast winner appears to be Scotty L, 9-0 being better than 9-3 (RS and rainsucks).

It's officially over at 18/11/5 ... scoring table in previous post, only first of three scoring columns is valid now. Congrats to overall contest winner Kirkcaldy Weather (of Net-weather) with a perfect forecast and 100.0 points, and to Ed Snow and hurricane Fan, top American Weather Forum entry, 98.0 points.

Canadian looked like it was about to do something at end of its run, is there any 11-12 day Canadian output? -- stuck in 2024.

It dropped by 40 in 6-9hrs after leaving AL at 995 mbs. Winds were 90+ kts near London ON and large towers were blown over. Also Nov 9 1913, 80-90 kt winds.

01-26-1978 (further west of course) 11-09-1913 (also west) _ Lake huron shipping disaster 10-12-1962 west coast _ large-scale forest blowdown A very intense low near Long Island 03-01-1914 was near 950. NYC's lowest SLP. Blizzard of 1888, 1899 (Feb) also in ballpark possibly? Extreme cold and blizzards of Jan 19-22 1857. Oct 1987 in Britain All very high impact situations. ... and also full moon, tidal surge potential.