Roger Smith

_________Table of forecasts______________ FORECASTER (order of entry) ______________ TS _ H _ M matty40s (NW-3) ___________________________ 22 _ 11 _ 6 Metwatch (NW-1, 13) _______________________ 21 _ 10 _ 4 Roger Smith (27) ___________________________ 20 _ 11 _ 3 CHSVol (13) ________________________________ 20 _ 10 _ 4 The Tall Weatherman (NW-5) ______________ 20 __ 9 _ 5 NeffsvilleWx (10) ____________________________19 __ 8 _ 5 marsman (14) _______________________________19 __ 5 _ 3 ldub23 (5) __________________________________ 18 _ 10 _ 5 Rhino16 (24) ________________________________ 18 _ 10 _ 4 Midlands Ice Age (NW-2, 14) ________________18 _ 10 _ 3 hudsonvalley21 (34) ________________________ 18 _ 9 _ 5 Yanksfan (8) ________________________________ 18 _ 9 _ 4 nvck (32) ___________________________________ 18 _ 9 _ 4 WYorksWeather (NW-4) ____________________ 17 _ 12 _ 6 Tallis Rockwell (18) __________________________ 17 _ 11 _ 5 Torch Tiger (17) _____________________________ 17 __ 9 _ 4 yoda (22) ____________________________________17 __ 9 _ 4 ___ consensus _______________________________ 17 __ 9 _ 4 (median) Normandy Ho (30) __________________________ 17 __ 8 _ 5 BarryStantonGBP (1) ________________________ 17 __ 8 _ 4 wxallannj (21) ________________________________17 __ 8 _ 4 jmearroz (31) ________________________________ 17 __ 8 _ 4 George BM (35) _____________________________ 17 __ 8 _ 4 Kaari (NW-7) ________________________________ 17 __ 8 _ 4 cnimbus (6) _________________________________ 17 __ 7 _ 4 FPizz (9) ____________________________________ 17 __ 7 _ 4 wxdude64 (28) ______________________________17 __ 7 _ 3 jconsor (3) __________________________________ 16 __ 9 _ 5 BKViking (29) _______________________________ 16 __ 9 _ 4 ___ UKMO ___________________________________ 16 __ 9 _ 4 LakeNormanStormin (7) _____________________16 __ 8 _ 4 Floydbster (12) ______________________________ 16 __ 8 _ 4 WxWatcher007 (25) ________________________ 16 __ 8 _ 4 ___ NOAA ___________________________________ 16 __ 8 _ 4 Newman (15) ________________________________ 16 __ 7 _ 3 vpbob21 (19) _________________________________15 __ 7 _ 4 ineedsnow (2) _______________________________15 __ 7 _ 3 cardinalland (14) _____________________________15 __ 6 _ 3 NC USGS^ (33) ______________________________ 14 _ 10 _ 2 Ga Wx (20) __________________________________ 14 __ 9 _ 3 LongBeachSurfFreak (4) ____________________ 14 __ 8 _ 4 Retrobuc (11) ________________________________ 14 __ 6 _ 3 StormchaserChuck (23) _____________________ 13 __ 7 _ 4 Kirkcaldy Weather (NW-6) ___________________ 12 __ 9 _ 4 Hotair (26) ___________________________________ 11 __ 4 _ 2 ================= mean (excl expert fcsts) is 16.8 __ 8.3 _ 4.0 ^ ... NC US Geological Survice is full user i.d. For NW entries, an equivalent order of entry to Am-Wx entries is provided for first and second entries

Extreme heat covers the entire PAC NW and BC region, highs close to 100 F in many locations inland. Cloudless over the region, visible satellite making it easy to find remnant snow cover on mountain ranges.

or a heat burst from nearby thunderstorm? (I saw mention of storms in parts of region, wasn't following very closely today) ... those heat bursts usually happen towards end of a storm's life cycle though.

As always, predict the highest temperatures to be expected this summer at the four airports: DCA IAD BWI RIC and I will start the ball rolling with 101, 101, 102 and 100. Contest deadline 06z June 20 2025 (end of Thursday June 19th) ... I have adjusted the deadline in view of model forecasts of possible high values around 22nd-23rd, to avoid having last minute nowcasts competing with forecasts submitted in advance. ... we seem to be on track to receive a good turnout of entries ... Tie-breaker details: lowest errors break ties, order of entry the last level separating ties For example, 0 1 1 1 beats 0 1 2 0. ... 2 1 1 1 beats 2 2 1 0. ... June 12th beats June 15th. ___ DEFENDING 2024 WINNER: Jebman ___

Just another update on contest ... my first stab at May scoring (mid-May) was horrendously bad so if you looked in then to May 31st, and saw those numbers and figured, well, the results will be sort of like that, nope, they were much different (it was much colder in the east and ORD, DEN than projected by me at the time) ... ... those scores are back before some chat about snowfall contest, and the snowfall contest results are back further also. I think DEN is clear of snow risks by now although it could always happen there in June. ... Annual updates are also posted just before this month's forecast posts begin. I will be adding an update on four seasons scoring later (will edit into annual scoring post). I will wait and see who has entered seasonal max by June 7th (edit your posts or re-post as you wish, I have already collected June forecasts). Then I will send messages to any non-entrants who may not be aware there is a call for forecasts. Final note, I have a 2025 N Atlantic hurricane season forecast contest running in the tropical section, some of you have entered already, deadline is June 7th (06z).

__ Table of forecasts for June 2025 __ a separate table will be created for seasonal max ... enter by June 10th FORECASTER _________________ DCA _NYC _BOS ___ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA Roger Smith __________________ +3.0 _+3.0 _+3.0 ___ +3.0 _+3.0 _+3.0 ___+1.5 _+1.5 _+1.5 RJay __________________________ +2.5 _+2.5 _+2.5 ___ +2.5 _+1.5 _ +2.0 ___+1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 hudsonvalley21 _______________ +2.4 _+2.4 _+2.0 ___ +1.4 _+1.2 _ +1.0 ___+0.7 _+2.5 _+0.2 wxallannj _____________________+2.2 _+2.3 _+2.6 ___ +0.5 _ +2.1 _ +1.3 ___+0.7 _+1.8 _+0.7 BKViking _____________________ +2.1 _ +2.2 _ +2.1 ___ +1.9 _ +0.3 _+0.5 ___+1.8 _ +1.0 _+1.9 Tom __________________________ +1.8 _ +1.6 _ +1.7 ____ +1.1 __+1.7 __+0.9___+0.5 _+2.1 _+0.8 ___ Consensus ________________+1.8 _ +2.0 _ +2.1 ___ +1.3 _ +1.1 __ +1.0 ___+0.7 _+1.4 _+1.0 so_whats_happening _________ +1.7 _ +1.6 _ +2.1 ___ +1.4 __+1.1 _ +1.0 ___ +2.1 _+1.3 _+2.1 DonSutherland1 _______________+1.6 _+2.2 _+2.3 ___ +2.6 _+0.2 _+0.8 ___+0.4 _+1.3 _+0.5 Stormchaserchuck1 __________ +1.6 _ +1.8 _ +2.0 ___ +0.8 _+0.6 _+0.7 ___+2.5_+2.7 _+1.0 Scotty Lightning _____________ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 ____+0.5 _+1.0 _ +1.5 ___ +0.5 _+2.0_ +0.5 wxdude64 ____________________+0.8 _ +1.2 _ +1.4 ___ +0.4 _+0.8 _+0.5___-0.4 _+0.4 _+0.9 ___ Normal ____________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 _ 0.0 _ 0.0 RodneyS ______________________ -0.5 _ +1.1 _ +1.0 ____ -1.8 _ -0.7 _ +1.2 ___ +0.1 _+0.1 _ +1.1 _________________ Persistence (May 2025) _______-0.2 _-0.9 _+0.8 ___ -2.6 _ +0.3 _ +3.2 __ +0.3 _+1.4 _-0.5 ======================================== Highest and lowest forecasts are color coded. Normal has low forecast for NYC, BOS, IAH, PHX and SEA.

Enter your forecast for seasonal totals of storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes (in the North Atlantic basin) ... using NOAA official counts as our contest guide ... separate thread in tropical forum.

CSU April 3, 2025 17 9 4 UKMO May 21, 2025 16 9 4 NOAA __ May 22, 2025 13-19 6-10 3-5 (16 8 4 avg fcst)

Got lucky with a late flare up and as of 0200 local, very good display (49N 117W).

Contest deadline extended to 6/6 ... I will say 20/11/3.

Just looking at the latest depictions from NOAA space weather, the geomagnetic storm flared up big time between 09z and 15z, then petered out for several hours, and has since begun to recharge (a second wave of material from the active Sun). As of now, all of New England and NYS would be seeing northern lights if it were dark outside. Hopefully this trend will continue. You can access real-time depictions of the aurora at swpc.noaa.gov. The auroral ring "forecast" is actually a 24-hour time lapse and its "forecast" component is only a few minutes into the future, what you see there is the previous 23 hours and the projected next hour of coverage. I've found from experience that if you're in the "green" outer zone you need to be in a very dark un-light-polluted spot to see much, if you're in yellow you'll easily see a lot of details in low-light-pollution rural spots and if you're in the red then you'll see an awe-inspiring display (all assuming you aren't clouded over of course). Hoping it stays active to 06z so I get a chance here, never went out to look last night because it was cloudy at 0200h. We had a very strong cold front go through late Saturday, highs were near 90F on Saturday and barely 60F today. Unusual for this time of year around here.

<<<<< JUNE DAILY RECORDS NYC 1869-2024 >>>>> _Date___Hi max __Hi min ______ Low max _ low min ________ 1d rain __ 2d rain** Jun 01 ___ 96 1895 ___ 77 1895 _______ 58 1945,2015 _44 1945 _________ 2.60 1887 ___3.13 1940 Jun 02 ___ 96 1895 ___ 76 1895, 1918__ 52 1907,46___48 1880,1907,29,45.46 _ 2.79 2006 ___3.78 2006 Jun 03 ___ 95 1895 ___ 75 1943 _______ 53 1945 _____45 1929 (68) ______ 3.01 1996 ___3.55 2006 Jun 04 ___ 99 1925 ___ 78 1943 _______ 52 1945 _____48 1926 (58 5th) __ 2.75 2003 ___3.91 2007a Jun 05 ___ 99 1925 ___ 78 1925 _______ 55 1945 _____47 1945 ___________ 2.80 1992 ___2.80 1992* Jun 06 ___ 98 1925 ___ 77 1925 _______ 56 1894 _____47 1945 (70) ______ 2.62 2000 ___2.90 1992 Jun 07 ___ 96 1925 ___ 76 2021 _______ 61 1891,1905_47 1879 (64)_______ 4.16 2013 ___4.29 2013 Jun 08 ___ 95 1933 ___ 77 1984 _______ 56 1947 _____47 1932 ____________1.02 1900 ___4.64 2013 Jun 09 ___ 97 1933 ___ 77 1984 _______ 57 1916 _____47 1980 (63) _______ 2.55 1989 ___2.63 1989b Jun 10 ___ 96 2008 ___ 79 1984 _______ 55 1881 _____49 1881, 1972 ______ 2.07 1881 ___2.85 1881 _____________________________________________________________________________ a 2007 2d (1.62+2.29) _____________________________________________________________________________ b also 2.36" 2d 1897 Jun 11 ___ 95 1973 ___ 78 1984 _______ 57 1916 _____46 1972 (69) _______ 1.14 1911 ___2.09 1881 Jun 12 ___ 93 1933,73,2017_76 2017 _____62 1924 _____48 1979 (69 11th) _ 2.18 1903,10_2.47 1910 ___________________________________________________________________ also 2d(1903 2.26", 1911 2.04") Jun 13 ___ 96 1961 ___ 77 2017 _______ 55 1982 _____51 1953 (63) _______ 1.71 1941 ___2.86 1998 Jun 14 ___ 99 1956 ___ 78 2005 ______ 59 1907 _____49 1875 (64 13th) __ 2.54 1917a ___2.54 1917* ___________________________________________________________________________a also 2.38" 1896 (1d) Jun 15 ___ 96 1891,1988,94_76 1899,1945,56_60 1916,71__48 1933 ____________ 1.13 1915 ___2.57 1917 Jun 16 ___ 97 1891 ___ 78 1891 _______ 62 1965 _____52 1927 ____________ 1.31 1972 ___1.36 1985 Jun 17 ___ 96 1957 ___ 77 1957 _______ 61 1959 _____51 1926 ____________ 1.82 2011 ___1.82 2011* Jun 18 ___ 95 1929 ___ 76 1957,2014 __63 1920 _____48 1950 (63 19th) __ 2.33 1871 b___2.33 1871* __________________________________________________________________________ b also 2.30" 2009 (1d) Jun 19 ___ 98 1994 ___ 76 1993 _______ 59 1935 _____52 1920 ____________ 1.93 1934 ___3.18 1967 __________________________________________________________________________________ 1967 (2.15+1.03) Jun 20 ___ 98 1923 ___ 76 1892 _______ 59 1958 _____49 1914 ____________ 1.39 1919 ___1.93 1934** Jun 21 ___ 97 1953,88 _ 79 2012 ______ 63 1958,2003_49 1897 (67)_______ 1.70 1902 ___1.70 1902* Jun 22 ___ 98 1988 ___ 76 1941 _______ 62 1928,52 __ 52 1897, 1940 ______1.96 1887 ___2.54 1887 Jun 23 ___ 96 1888 ___ 77 1888 _______ 59 1918 _____49 1918 ____________ 1.75 1887 ___3.71 1887 Jun 24 ___ 96 1888 ___ 79 1909 _______ 59 1940 _____52 1881, 1932 ______ 1.46 1984 ___1.75 1887** Jun 25 ___ 99 1943,52 _ 78 1909 ______ 63 1974 _____53 1873 (62 24th) ___ 1.19 1925 ___1.52 1984 Jun 26 ___100 1952 ___ 81 1952 _______ 63 1893 _____56 1893, 1974,79 ___4.29 1884 ___4.74 1884 Jun 27 ___101 1966 ___ 76 1943 _______ 61 1968 _____55 1940 ____________ 2.11 1932 ___4.29 1884** Jun 28 ___ 96 1969,91 _ 77 1876,1943 __ 60 1938 ____54 1888,93,1915,95 _ 1.69 1938 ___2.76 1938 Jun 29 ___101 1934 ___ 78 2021 _______ 65 1903 _____52 1888, 1919 ______ 2.57 1903 ___2.57 1903* Jun 30 ___ 99 1964 ___ 79 1945,59 _____65 1967 _____ 53 1919 ____________ 3.07 1984 ___3.07 1984* **2day rain records are for two days ending on date (e.g. June 30 record is June 29-30) ... ... records marked * have only rain on second day of 2d int (e.g. no rain fell June 29, 1984). ... records marked ** have only rain on previous day of 2d int (e.g. no rain fell June 27, 1884). NOTE also ... monthly extreme values are in bold type. Temps in brackets with record low minima are that day's (or indicated day's) non-record low max value, gives an idea of whether the low max that actually occurred was a cloudier day than the day with a record low min. ____________________________________ 76F new high min June 7 2021 replaced 73F 1883 and 78F June 29 replaced 77F 1870. June 27 also __ 1.99"R 1919

+3.0 for all exc west (3 stn) +1.5 102 _ 100 _ 100 __ 101 _ 102 _ 107 __ 107 _ 120 _ 99 (add your seasonal max forecasts, by 6-10 is fine)

Tracking progress of 2025 in top 20 wettest Mays ... 21 _ 5.76 _ (2004) 20 _ 5.77 _ (1897) 19 _ 6.23 _ (1979) 18 _ 6.34 _ (1924) 17 _ 6.38 _ (2017) 16 _ 6.43 _ (1901) 15 _ 6.58 _ 2025 (final) 14 _ 6.72 _ (1898) 13 _ 6.80 _ (1946) 12 _ 6.82 _ (2019) 11 _ 6.94 _ (1998) 10 _ 7.06 _ (1968) 09 _ 7.58 _ (1948) 08 _ 7.61 _ (1940) 07 _ 8.00 _ (2013) 06 _ 8.39 _ (1972) 05 _ 8.51 _ (1908) 04 _ 9.10 _ (1990) 03 _ 9.15 _ (1978) 02 _ 9.74 _ (1984) 01 _10.24 _ (1989) _______________________________________ Last year was 4.11" (62nd wettest)

Tracking progress of 2025 in top 20 wettest Mays ... 21 _ 5.76 _ (2004) 20 _ 5.77 _ (1897) 19 _ 6.12 _ 2025 (29, 4 pm ) 18 _ 6.23 _ (1979) 17 _ 6.34 _ (1924) 16 _ 6.38 _ (2017) 15 _ 6.43 _ (1901) 14 _ 6.72 _ (1898) 13 _ 6.80 _ (1946) 12 _ 6.82 _ (2019) 11 _ 6.94 _ (1998) 10 _ 7.06 _ (1968) 09 _ 7.58 _ (1948) 08 _ 7.61 _ (1940) 07 _ 8.00 _ (2013) 06 _ 8.39 _ (1972) 05 _ 8.51 _ (1908) 04 _ 9.10 _ (1990) 03 _ 9.15 _ (1978) 02 _ 9.74 _ (1984) 01 _10.24 _ (1989) _______________________________________ Last year was 4.11" (62nd wettest)

May scoring post already exists (final edit June 1st) before snowfall contest posts above ... Here's the annual scoring update ... this contest remains quite close top to bottom. === ::: [] <<<<<<< Annual Scoring for Jan-May 2025 >>>>>>> [] ::: === FORECASTER _________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH _ cent _ c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__ west __TOTALS Tom ___________________325 _346 _376 __1047 __314 _328 _302 __944 _1991 __352 _318 _294__964 ___2955 hudsonvalley21 _______ 303 _358 _390 __1051 __246 _372 _301 __919__1970 __304 _308 _364__976 ___2946 ___ Consensus _______ 305 _336 _354__995__300 _386 _286_972 _1967 _ 287 _326 _360__973___2940 so_whats_happening __337 _356 _318 __1011 __282 _402 _263 __947 _ 1958 __274 _258 _380__ 912 ___ 2870 RJay __________________ 304 _371 _ 381__1056 __314 _390 _276 __980 _ 2036__237 _243 _263__743 ___2779 BKViking ______________ 230 _293 _303 __826 __312 _374 _280 __966 _ 1792 __ 318 _320 _337__ 975 ___2767 Scotty Lightning _______330 _332 _312 __ 974 __241 _268 _ 296 __805 _ 1779 __253 _374 _350__977 ___2756 wxallannj ______________263 _290 _330 __ 883 __308 _306 _272 __886 _1769 __ 318 _316 _343__ 977 ___2746 DonSutherland1 _______233 _282 _318 __ 833 __262 _352 _252 __866 _1699 __ 311 _286 _382__ 979 ___2678 RodneyS ______________ 288 _280 _326 __ 894 __256 _300 _234 __790 _ 1684 __231 _316 _436__983___2667 StormchaserChuck ___ 309 _306 _316 __ 931 __200 _388 _ 199 __787 _ 1718 __ 313 _282 _293__888 ___2606 wxdude64 _____________244 _270 _294 __ 808 __230_ 332 _254 __816 _ 1624 __311 _326 _342__979 ___2603 Roger Smith ___________274 _302 _314 __ 890 __ 272 _334 _258 __864 _ 1754 __ 158 _260 _331__ 749 ___2503 ___ Normal _____________240 _302 _316 __ 858 __242 _ 178 _ 121 ___541 __1399 __ 284 _314 _360__958 ___2357 maxim (2/5) ___________ 180 _ 152 _164 __ 496 ___ 96_ 120 _ 082 __ 298 __ 794 __ 92 _ 90 _ 135__ 317 ____ 1111 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- prorated total ... 2777 Persistence _____________116 _236 _322 __ 674 ___138 _196 _226 __ 560 _1234 __134 _198 _284 __ 616 ____1850 ____________________________ _____ __ Best scores __ ^ incl tied for best score * incl 3 tied for best score ________________________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH_cent_c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west__ TOTALS Tom ____________________ 1 __ 1* __ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1* __1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____1 __ Mar hudsonvalley21 ________ 0 __ 2* __ 2 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 1* ___0 __ 0 ___ 1^__ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ____0 ___ Consensus _______ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 1 ___0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___0 ____0 so_whats_happening __ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1^ __ 1^ __ 1 ___ 2 _____0 RJay ___________________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2*__ 0 __ 1 *___ 1 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 1*__ 0 ___0 ____ 0 BKViking _______________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 2 __ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1*__ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 Scotty Lightning _______ 2^__ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 2 ____0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 3*___1 ___ 1 ____ 0 wxallannj _______________0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 Don Sutherland 1 _______0 __ 1^__ 1^____ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 ___0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 1 __ 1^__ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 RodneyS _______________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 __ 1* __ 1* __ 1 __ 1 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 3 ____ 1 _____1 _ May StormchaserChuck _____1 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 2*__ 1 __ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 __0 ___ 1 ____ 0 _Apr wxdude64 ______________0 __ 0 __ 1^___ 1 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 1 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 1 _ Jan Roger Smith ____________ 1^ __ 2^__ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___1 __ 2**__0 __ 1 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 _ Feb ___ Normal ______________ 1 __ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 maxim __________________ 1 __ 0 __ 1^___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 1 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 1 _____ 0 ============================== odd distribution of contest wins, 4/5 go to last four regular entrants in total scoring. (one to top scorer Tom) Extreme forecasts So far, 29 of 45 ... 15 for warmest and 14 for coldest ... Jan 1-4, Feb 1-4, Mar 5-0, Apr 6-0, May 2-6 Forecaster _______________ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _Apr _May __ Total___adj for ties (*2 tied, ^3 tied) Rodney S _________________ 2-1 _ 1*-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _3*0 __6-1 ____5.0 - 1.0 Scotty Lightning __________ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0 _ 2-0 __ 5-0 ___ 5.0 - 0.0 hudsonvalley21 ___________ 1*-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 2-0 _ 1-1 __ 4-1 ___ 3.5 - 0.0 Roger Smith ______________ 0-0 _ 3-1 _ 0-1 _ 1*0 _ 0-0 __ 4-2 ___ 3.5 - 2.0 Stormchaser Chuck _______0-0 _0-0 _0-1 _ 4*-2 _0-0 __ 4-3 ___ 3.5 - 3.0 ___ Normal ________________ 1-0 _ 0-1 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 __ 2-0 __ 3-1 ____ 3.0 - 1.0 maxim _____________________1^-0_ 0-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 3-0 ___ 2.33-0.0 Tom _______________________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 2*0 __3-0 ___ 2.5 - 0.0 so_whats_happening _____ 1*-0 _1*-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 __ 2-0 ____1.0 - 0.0 Don Sutherland ___________ 1^-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 __ 2-0 ____1.33-0.0 BKViking __________________ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 1-0 ____ 1.0 - 0.0 wxdude64 _________________1^-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 1-0 ____0.33-0.0 RJay _______________________ 0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _2**-0_0-0 __ 2-0 ___ 1.0-0.0 ========================================================= Four Seasons Winter 2024-2025 scoring 12 pts to winner, 10 down to 1 point for rest of field, and 1 point for all entrants at least 2/3. ____________________________ winter _____________ spring ___________________ FORECASTER _____________TOTAL __points___ MAR _APR _MAY __TOTAL _ points __ TOTAL points ___ Consensus ____________ 1771 ___ 9.7 _____549 _ 616 _ 602 __ 1767 ____7.4 __ 17.1 so_whats_happening ______ 1662 ____ 8 _____ 587 _ 646 _ 572 __ 1805 ____ 8 ____ 16 BKViking ___________________1805 ___ 12 _____ 545 _ 536 _ 540 __ 1621 _____4 ____ 16 RJay _______________________1703 ____ 9 ______ 489 _ 698 _ 502 __1689 ____ 5 ____ 14 Tom _______________________ 1417 ____ 1 ______ 703 _ 674 _ 676 __ 2053 ___ 12 ____ 13 wxallannj __________________ 1800 ___ 10 _____ 551 _ 474 _ 536 __ 1561 _____ 3 ____ 13 hudsonvalley21 ____________1532 ____ 3 ______ 607 _ 684 _ 642 __1933 ____ 9 ____ 12 StormchaserChuck _______ 1328 ____ 1 ______ 695 _ 710 _ 548 __ 1953 ____ 10 ____ 11 Don Sutherland1 __________ 1587 ____ 5 ______569 _ 566 _ 598 __ 1733 ____ 6 ____ 11 Scotty Lightning __________ 1542 ____ 4 ______415 _ 668 _ 658 __ 1741 ____ 7 ____ 11 wxdude64 ________________ 1653 ____ 7 ______380 _ 488 _ 568 __ 1436 ___ 1 ____ 8 Roger Smith _______________1617 ____ 6 ______266 _ 516 _ 576 __ 1368 ____ 1 ____ 7 RodneyS __________________ 1488 ____ 2 ______338 _ 422 _ 714 __ 1474 ____ 2 ___ 4 ___ Normal _______________ 1387 ____ 1 ______ 260 _ 482 _ 698 __1440 ____1 ____ 2 ___________________________

Yesterday's (05-22) stats: ORH 43/40 __ 2.07" (prev day 46/42 .03") BOS 48/45 __ 3.11" (prev day 50/47 Tr) CON 47/42 __ 1.04" (prev day 53/46 0.00")

"1916 - A tornado struck the town of Cordell, KS. A tornado struck the town on the same day the following year (1917), and a third tornado hit Cordell on May 20th in 1918. (The Weather Channel)" <<< Welcome to Cordell, tornado free since 1919 >>>

Listed as 54F on May 25, 2013. Lowest values since 1990 are 51F on 20th_2000, 21st_1990, and 29th,30th_2021. Then 53F on 25th, 2005. These dates can be added as max 50F ... 21st, 1892, 1924, 1929; 24th, 1877.

In NYC data, only these three days failed to reach 50F after 18th: May 19, 1950 _ 48F May 25, 1967 _ 46F May 27, 1961 _ 47F (the month's warmest max, 99F, was on 19th of 1962)

Final scoring for May 2025 _ late penalties are incorporated into scoring, mostly 1 point deductions (for 2% to remove 2 points, score must be 76+) FORECASTER __________________ DCA_NYC_BOS_east_ORD_ATL_IAH_cent_c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA_west __ TOTAL RodneyS ________________________76 _ 62 _ 92 _ 230 _ 84 _ 98 _ 50 _ 232 _ 462 _ 86 _ 68 _ 98 __252 ____714 ___ Normal______________________ 96 _ 82 _ 84 _ 262 _ 48 _ 96 _ 36 _ 180 _ 442 _ 94 _ 72 _ 90 __ 256 ___ 698 Tom _____________________________84 _ 66 _100_ 250 _ 26 _ 98 _ 54 _ 178 _ 428 _ 90 _ 82 _ 76 __ 248 ___ 676 Scotty Lightning ________________ 66 _ 62 _ 96 _ 224 _ 28 _ 66 _ 76 _ 170 _ 394 _ 86 _ 98 _ 80 __ 264 ___ 658 hudsonvalley21 __________________80 _ 70 _ 90 _ 240 _ 20 _ 72 _ 60 _ 152 _ 392 _ 70 _ 86 _ 94 __ 250 ___ 642 ___ Consensus _______________66 _ 50 _ 82 _ 198 _ 20 _ 86 _ 56 _162 _ 360 _ 80 _ 82 _80 __242 __ 602 DonSutherland1 _________________ 62 _ 48 _ 82 _ 192 _ 22 _ 90 _ 54 _ 166 _ 358 _ 98 _ 56 _ 86 __ 240 ___ 598 Roger Smith ____________________ 70 _ 54 _ 86 _ 210 _ 24 _ 92 _ 46 _ 162 _ 372 _ 52 _ 92 _ 60 __ 204 ____ 576 so_whats_happening ____________68 _ 50 _ 82 _ 200 _ 10 _ 96 _ 32 _ 138 _ 338 _ 76 _ 78 _ 80 __ 234 ___ 572 wxdude64 ______________________ 60 _ 44 _ 82 _ 186 _ 06 _ 78 _ 58 _ 142 _ 328 _ 76 _ 82 _ 82 __ 240 ___ 568 StormchaserChuck _____________ 68 _ 50 _ 80 _ 198 _ 00 _ 98 _ 24 _ 122 _ 320 _ 84 _ 74 _ 70 __ 228 ____ 548 BKViking ___________(-2%)_______49 _ 35 _ 73 _ 157 _ 20 _ 84 _ 55 _ 159 __ 316 _ 65 _ 96 _ 63 __ 224 ___ 540 wxallannj________________________ 46 _ 32 _ 66 _ 144 _ 00 _ 80 _ 60 _ 140 _ 284 _ 86 _ 82 _ 84 __ 252 ___ 536 RJay ________________(-2%)______ 55 _ 31 _ 65 __ 151 _ 08 _ 84 _ 55 _ 147 __ 298 _ 74 _ 71 _ 59 __ 204 ___ 502 ______ Persistence (Apr 2025) __________26 _ 50 _ 72 _ 148 _ 26 _ 16 _ 72 _ 114 _ 262 _ 72 _100 _ 74 __ 246 ___ 508 ============================== Extreme forecasts DCA, NYC, ORD, ATL, DEN, SEA are all wins for coldest forecasts. RodneyS has three of them, and Tom, hudsonvalley21 and DonSutherland have one each. In addition, Normal shares a win for DCA and NYC. ... Also Tom shares the ATL win as lowest and second lowest forecasts tied there ... BOS did not quite qualify, as third coldest forecast there had high score. IAH was a win for warmest forecast (Scotty Lightning). PHX was a win-loss situation where highest forecast (hudsonvalley21) took a loss and second highest forecast (Scotty Lightning) won. ================================== Annual update will appear in a post to be edited below (dated Wed May 28th) _ this should happen later today (June 1st).

Tracking anomalies and projections ... _____________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ___ anom 1-15 ______ +3.5 _ +2.8 _ +3.0 ___+1.0 _ +0.1 _ +1.5 __ +3.0 _ +1.2 _ -0.5 ___ p anom 1-31 ____ +2.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 ___ +0.5 _ +1.0 _ +2.5 __ +3.0 _ +1.5 __ 0.0 ___ anom 1-31 ______ -0.2 _ -0.9 _ +0.8 ___ -2.6 _ +0.3 _ +3.2 __ +0.3 _ +1.4 _ -0.5

Visible satellite showing 150 mile extension of anvil top blowoff to east of developing supercells. 40wnw BWG KY 21z would be my chase base.

<<< SNOWFALL CONTEST FINAL REPORT ?? >>> (probably our final update, will keep an eye on DEN just in case) Table of forecasts for snowfall winter 2024-2025 ... listed in order of total snowfall predicted ... FORECASTER ______________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _DTW _BUF ___ DEN _SEA _BTV ___ TOTAL Roger Smith ________________13.5_ 32.0_ 47.0 ___ 50.6_ 52.2_ 130.0 ___ 89.0_ 1.5_109.3 ___ 525.1 wxdude64 _________________ 18.8_ 36.2_ 44.3 ___ 37.8_ 41.3_ 122.9 ___ 71.2_ 7.4 _102.7 ___ 482.6 Tom ________________________26.2_ 38.1_ 42.4 ___ 37.6_ 42.3_ 102.6 ___ 57.7_ 6.4__83.4 ___ 436.7 ___ Normal 1991-2020 _____13.7_ 29.8_ 49.2 ___ 38.4 _45.0__95.4 ___49.0_ 6.3_87.5 ___ 414.3 BKViking ___________________12.0_ 27.0_ 44.0 ___ 30.0_ 28.0 __ 98.0 ___ 55.0_14.0_ 100.0___ 408.0 RodneyS ____________________5.8_ 22.0_ 38.5 ___ 42.5_ 45.0__ 99.0 ___ 58.0_ 9.5__85.0 ___ 405.3 ___ Consensus ____________14.8_ 23.6_ 34.8 __ 35.0_ 36.7 _ 104.2 __57.4 _ 5.8 _91.7 ___ 404.0 RJay _______________________ 4.0_ 12.0 _ 50.0 ___ 29.0_ 35.0_ 100.0 ___ 60.0_ 6.0_ 100.0 ___ 396.0 Scotty Lightning ___________20.0_ 25.0_ 30.0___ 35.0_ 30.0_ 106.0 ___ 45.0 _ 3.0_ 100.0 ___ 394.0 wxallannj __________________25.0_ 30.0_ 34.0 ___32.0_ 35.0__ 94.0 ___ 40.0_ 4.0__ 88.0 ___ 382.0 Don Sutherland1 ___________ 8.0_ 16.5_ 35.0 ___ 40.0_ 45.0__ 95.0 ___ 55.0_ 8.0__ 75.0 ___ 377.5 hudsonvalley21 ____________17.0_ 21.0_ 28.0 ___ 26.0_ 24.0_ 102.0 ___ 51.0 _ 4.0__ 84.0 ___ 357.0 so_whats_happening ______13.0_ 19.0_ 35.0 ___ 29.0_ 31.0__ 98.0 ___ 39.0 _ 3.0__ 81.0 ___ 348.0 ___________________________ Persistence (2023-2024) ___ 8.0__ 7.5__ 9.8 ___ 22.2_ 23.5__ 71.3 ___ 44.6_ 0.3__ 60.8 ___ 248.0 ____________________ To date _____ (May 15) _______ 14.9__12.9 _28.1 ___17.6 _28.7__ 77.2 ___ 47.7 __2.3 __75.7 ____305.1 (contest incl all seasonal snow) __Scoring update (in order)__ _ underlined errors are forecasts lower than actual ... rest are forecasts higher than actual to date _ Rank _FORECASTER _____________ DCA_NYC_BOS __ ORD_DTW_BUF ___ DEN_SEA_BTV ___ TOTAL _01__hudsonvalley21 ___________ 2.1 _ 8.1 __ 0.1 _____ 8.4 __ 4.7 __ 24.8 ____ 3.3 _ 1.7 __ 8.3 ___ 61.5 _02 __so_whats_happening ______ 1.9 _ 6.1 __ 6.9 ____ 11.4 __ 2.3 __20.8 ____8.7 _ 0.7 __ 5.3 ___ 64.1 (02.1)_Persistence (2023-2024)__6.9__ 5.4__18.3 ___ 4.6 __ 5.2 ____5.9 ____ 3.1 _2.0 _ 14.9 ___ 66.3 _03 __Don Sutherland1 ___________ 6.9 _ 3.6 __6.9 ___ 22.4 _ 16.3 __ 17.8 ____7.3 _ 5.7 __ 0.7 ___ 87.6 _04 __wxallannj __________________ 10.1_ 17.1 __ 5.9 ___ 14.4 __ 6.3 __ 16.8 ____7.7 _ 1.7 __ 12.3 ___ 92.3 _05 __Scotty Lightning ___________ 5.1 _ 12.1 __ 1.9 ___ 17.4 __ 1.3 __ 28.8 ____ 2.7 _0.7 _ 24.3 ___ 94.3 (5.3)___ Consensus ____________ 0.1 _ 10.7 _ 6.7 ___ 17.4 __8.0 __27.0 ____ 9.7 _ 3.5 _16.0 __ 99.1 _06 __BKViking ___________________ 2.9_ 14.1 _ 15.9 ___ 12.4 __ 0.7 __ 20.8 ___ 7.3 _11.7 __24.3 ___ 110.1 (6.2)___ Normal 1991-2020 ____ 1.2 _ 16.9_ 21.1 ___ 20.8 _ 16.3 __16.5 ___ 3.0_ 4.0__11.8 ___ 111.6 _07 __RJay _______________________10.9 _ 0.9 _21.9 ___ 11.4 __ 6.3 __ 22.8 ___ 12.3_ 3.7 _ 24.3 ___ 114.5 _08 __RodneyS ____________________9.1 _ 9.1 _ 10.4 ___ 24.9 _ 16.3 __ 21.8 ____8.6 _ 7.2 __ 8.9 ___ 118.4 _09 __Tom ________________________11.3_ 25.2_ 14.3 ___ 20.0 _ 13.6 _ 25.4 ___ 10.0 _ 4.1 __ 7.7 ___ 131.6 _10 __wxdude64 _________________ 3.9_ 23.3_ 16.2 ___ 20.2 _ 12.6 _ 45.7 ___23.5 _ 5.1 _27.0 ___ 177.5 _11 __Roger Smith ________________ 1.4_ 19.1 _ 18.9 ___ 33.0 _ 23.5 _ 51.1 ___ 43.0_ 0.8_ 33.6 ___ 224.4 (will post final comments at end of May)

It's that time again ... enter your forecast for seasonal totals of storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes (in the North Atlantic basin) ... using NOAA official counts as our contest guide. Include any named storms already in the books by 06z June 7th in your total (as of now, count is 0/0/0). 1991-2020 average values 14/7/3 ... 2025 seasonal forecasts from various experts average 17/9/4 (so far). I will include a few of these as of June 7 as non-entries for ranking against our forecasts (without changing our contest ranks). I extended the entry deadline based on the situation as of 06z June 8. You can edit or revise any entries up to final deadline (11th 06z), no need to bring attention to edits as I won't be trying to create a table of entries until deadline is passed. Boards.ie weather forum and Net-weather (UK) will be invited to participate. Ranks will be provided (a) over all entries and (b) within forums, or fora if anyone here is a Latin purist. 2024 winner was Kirkcaldy Weather of Net-weather. Good luck !