Roger Smith

__ Preliminary scoring estimates for October 2025 __ Estimates are based on latest posted end of month anomaly projections in previous post. FORECASTER __________DCA_NYC_BOS_ east _ORD_ATL_IAH_ cent _ c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA_west__TOTAL Ephesians2 ____________ 14 _ 34 _ 50 _098 _ 92 _ 90 _72 _252 _350_ 80 _ 74 _ 90 _244 __ 594 Roger Smith ___________ 30 _ 30 _ 34 _094 _ 96 _100_70_266 _360_100 _ 60 _ 56 _216 __ 576 StormchaserChuck1 ___ 36 _ 40 _ 50 _126 _ 86 _ 88 _ 50 _224 _350_ 70 _ 96 _ 80 _246 __ 596 RJay ___________________ 40 _ 40 _ 50 _130 _ 90 _ 70 _ 40 _200 _330_100_100_ 80 _280 __ 610 DonSutherland1 ________ 50 _ 58 _ 70 _178 _ 92 _ 64 _ 34 _ 190 _368 _76 _ 48 _ 76 _200 __ 568 wxallannj _______________54 _ 62 _ 70 _186 _ 40 _ 66 _ 46 _ 152 _338_ 80 _ 86 _ 72 _238 __ 576 hudsonvalley21 _________58 _ 68 _ 78 _204 _ 64 _ 54 _ 36 _ 154 _358 _98 _ 62 _ 76 _236 __ 594 ___ Consensus _________58 _66 _ 74 _ 198 _ 68 _ 64 _ 38 _ 170 _368 _86 _ 78 _ 70 _234 __ 602 so_whats_happening ___60 _ 64 _ 72 _196 _ 70 _ 62 _ 42 _ 174 _370 _ 88 _ 80 _ 48 _216 __ 586 yoda ___________________ 64 _ 82 _ 94 _240 _ 50 _ 64 _ 36 _ 150 _390 _ 86 _ 62 _ 74 _222 __ 612 BKViking _______________ 68 _ 76 _ 86 _230 _ 34 _ 60 _ 24 _ 118 _348 _ 80 _ 80 _ 64 _224 __ 572 Tom ____________________ 70 _ 78 _ 88 _236 _ 56 _ 60 _ 22 _ 138 _374 _ 84 _ 78 _ 70 _232 __ 606 Scotty Lightning ________70 _ 90 _100_260 _ 20 _ 60 _ 20 _ 100 _360 _ 80 _ 70 _ 70 _ 220 __ 580 wxdude64 ______________88 _ 96 _ 86 _270 _ 00 _ 46 _ 10 _ 056 _326 _ 52 _ 96 _ 66 _ 214 __ 540 RodneyS _______________ 98 _ 76 _ 88 _262 _ 76 _ 42 _ 60 _ 178 _ 440 _ 92 _ 88 _ 62 _ 242 __ 682 ___ Normal _____________100 _ 90 _ 80 _270 _ 00 _ 30 _ 00 _ 030 _ 300 _60 _100 _80 _240 __ 540 _______________ ___ Persistence __(Sep) _ 96 _ 82 _ 98 _ 276 _ 60 _ 80 _ 24 _164 _440 _58 _ 80 _ 50 _188 __ 628 =================== EXTREME FORECASTS (for the benefit of new forecasters, an extreme forecast is awarded when either most extreme or second most extreme forecast takes high score. Also, by contest convention, forecasters with fewer than three forecasts in a given year are eligible for these extreme forecasts but they are also scored for contest scoring purposes as if that forecast was not in play, and no loss is awarded when both win under the two systems. The same is true for best scores ... note Yoda has now entered enough contests to void the occasional entry rule). DCA _ On current estimates, RodneyS (and Normal) have a win for lowest forecasts. NYC _ On current estimates, wxdude64 has a win for lowest forecast. BOS _ On current estimates, Scotty Lightning has a win, and wxdude64 a loss, for lowest forecasts. ORD _ On current estimates, no extreme forecast would be awarded. The result will need to be +5.5 or higher. If it were +5.5, RJay would have a win, StormchaserChuck a loss. At +5.6 they would be tied, and at +5.7 or higher, it would be a win for SC. ATL _ This could finish as wins for Ephesians2 and Roger Smith (regular forecast rule if result +3.8 or above), or a win for Roger Smith and loss for Ephesians 2 (if result +3.3 to +3.7), or a win for RodneyS and losses for Roger Smith and Ephesians 2 (if result +2.8 to +3.2). IAH _ On current estimates, this would be scored as wins for Ephesians2 and Roger Smith (regular forecast rule). DEN _ The current estimate of +2.0 is just below the value needed to consider a win-loss scenario (at +2.1 to +2.3, win for hudsonvalley21, and loss for DonSutherland, at +2.4 or above, a win for DonSutherland. PHX _ On current estimates, a win for RJay (0.0) and Normal, and a loss for wxdude64 (-0.2). With third lowest forecast at +0.2, StormchaserChuck joins tie for win at +0.1, and forecast no longer "extreme" at +0.2 to +1.9. SEA _ On current estimates, a win for Ephesians2 and also tied StormchaserChuck and RJay (and Normal) (regular forecast rule) ... would be a win for same regulars and loss for Ephesians2 at any outcome -0.2 to 0.0, no longer extreme at +0.1 or above. __________________________________ (actual forecasts) FORECASTER __________ DCA _NYC _BOS _ORD _ATL _IAH __DEN _PHX _SEA Ephesians2 ____________+4.3 _+3.8 _+3.5 _+5.4 _+4.0 _+3.6 _+1.0 _+1.3 _ -0.5 Roger Smith ___________ +3.5 _+4.0 _+4.3 _+5.2 _+3.5 _+3.5 _+2.0 _+2.0 _+1.2 StormchaserChuck1 ___ +3.2 _+3.5 _+3.5 _+5.7 _+2.9 _+2.5 _+0.5 _+0.2 __0.0 RJay ___________________ +3.0 _+3.5 _+3.5 _+5.5 _+2.0 _+2.0 _+2.0 __0.0 __0.0 DonSutherland1 ________ +2.5 _+2.6 _+2.5 _+5.4 _+1.7 _+1.7 _+3.2 _+2.6 _+0.2 wxallannj _______________+2.3 _+2.4 _+2.5 _ +2.0 _+1.8 _+2.3 _+1.0 _+0.7 _+0.4 hudsonvalley21 _________+2.1 _+2.1 _ +2.1 __ +3.2 _+1.2 _+1.8 _ +2.1 _+1.9 _+0.2 ___ Consensus _________+2.1 _+2.2 _+2.3__+3.4_+1.7 _+1.9 _+1.3 _+1.1 _+0.5 so_whats_happening __ +2.0 _+2.3 _+2.4 _ +3.5 _+1.6 _+2.1 _ +1.4 _ +1.0 _ +1.6 yoda ___________________ +1.8 _+1.4 _+1.3 __+2.5 _ +1.7 _+1.8 _ +1.3 _ +1.9 _+0.3 BKViking _______________ +1.6 _+1.7 _+1.7 __+1.7 _+1.5 _+1.2 __+1.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.8 Tom ____________________ +1.5 _+1.6 _+1.6 __+2.8 _+1.5 _+1.1 __+1.2 _ +1.1 _ +0.5 Scotty Lightning ________+1.5 _+1.0 _+1.0 __+1.0 _ +1.5 _+1.0 __+1.0 _+1.5 _+0.5 wxdude64 ______________+0.6 _+0.7 _+0.3 _-0.2 _+0.8 _+0.5__-0.4 _-0.2 _+0.7 RodneyS _______________ +0.1 _ +1.7 _+1.6 __+3.8 _+0.6 _+3.0 _+1.6 _+0.6 _+0.9 ___ Normal ______________ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ___0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ___0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _______________ ___ Persistence __(Sep) _-0.2 _+1.4 _+0.9 _+3.0 _+2.5 _+1.2 _-0.1 _+1.0 _+1.5

Anomalies and projections: _______________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ORD _ ATL _IAH __ DEN _PHX _SEA _____ (anom 1-18) _____-0.1 _ +1.0 _ +1.4 __ +7.9 _+4.1 _+5.2 __ +3.5 _-0.5 _-0.6 ___ ( p anom 1-31) _____ 0.0 _+0.5 _ +1.0 __+5.0 _+3.5 _+5.0 __ +2.0 __0.0 _-1.0 (preliminary scoring estimates will follow ...)

After 1-2"of wet snow, a cold drizzly rain and 38 F here. The previous snow cover had disappeared below 4500\ elevation. last week in some milder conditions. Not fit for man nor beast today, as leaves come tumbling down.

Meanwhile IAH is 4.8 above normal and has had no rain at all yet in October.

Phoenix has had 3.26" also, and normal for this part of October is 0.24" -- in fact the normal for the year to date is only 5.59" -- the climate report reveals that a year ago it was a record warm 103F and the month had been dry to that point. We ended up with 3 inches of snow last night at my elevation of 3300' asl, a drive around on Monday under clear skies revealed that the snow only accumulated above 3000' and it was quickly disappearing this afternoon in town. Quite cold still as clear skies prevail, probably going down below 25 F tonight here.

LB, from what I can ascertain from storm reports and the NOAA weather map archive project, the track was across the Delmarva Peninsula and far southern NJ towards central Long Island and then Rhode Island to near Boston, but as the storm underwent extratropical transition it looks to have been elongating rapidly with a new center forming near Nantucket on Oct 14th. Probably NYC was hit with a period of strong E-NE winds, then moderate westerlies set in when the trough axis passed through CT. It was probably never much over 55 F during the event in NYC, I would guess it was 70F in eastern Long Island briefly. The archive maps lack intensity but are probably better for track as they would have numerous ship reports available.

The NHC has named Lorenzo in the tropical Atlantic, another likely fish storm but hey we'll take what we can get. Scoring tables will be adjusted yet again. Jerry disappeared so no chance of becoming a hurricane. They say Lorenzo has an outside chance. I am guessing the coastal low will get a name a few days from now when it's out over warmer waters. That will be Melissa, or Nestor, or ...

Thanks Don, because our Thanksgiving always falls on a Monday and people travel to visit family/friends, almost everyone in Canada has their big meal on Sunday (today) as we are now about to do ... some wait for the Monday but I would guess three quarters or more of Canadians celebrate today. The big meal is probably very similar to American traditions, but we don't have any huge sales like Black Friday. If people are visiting they usually travel home on the Monday and it's back to work Tuesday so it's a three-day instead of four-day holiday here. If people have summer cottages they usually close those down for the winter either this weekend or the next. I don't know which country had Thanksgiving first, but I think it stems from harvest festival Sundays in some Christian denominations, plus the feast of Tabernacles in Jewish observance that has some similar features. People probably realize this but Columbus Day is not observed in Canada, some might know when it takes place, but Canadian weather enthusiasts refer to the Columbus Day storm as post-tropical Freda.

Wet snow is now falling here, coating on some surfaces. Trees are still in full leaf so if this would accumulate it would bring down branches. It could accumulate at higher elevations than here.

Well there's a daily posting on this subforum of historical weather events all over the country (by Sacrus) and quite often I see posters discussing those, so I don't think the above is true but anyway I did post some of the info on the mountain west thread so I will shuffle on back there and shoot grizzlies off my front porch.

I know, Don finds these things interesting even if you don't.

First snow on local peaks overnight, snow line is 6,000' and a chilly 45 F at 2 p.m. here at 3500' elevation, stratus deck at around 10,000' just above the peaks of the local Monashee Range. Snow stayed a little higher than mountain pass elevations but we could see the clear snow line on the local peaks, just some drizzly light rain falling in some places now as a shallow layer of arctic air seeps in from the northeast. Peak fall colors now at 2,000' to 5,000' elevations.

There were some dramatic radar echoes over Arizona and southern Utah from this storm, I think Chinook posted them on the mountain west thread. Where I live, we have the first snow visible on nearby peaks (the snow line is at 6,000 ft) and it's a chilly 45 F at 3500' probably high 30s on the slopes above us. We are at peak fall colour (which is mostly gold in this area, some orange and red). Note the anniversary of the 1962 storm, that was extratropical Hurricane Freda from the central Pacific basin (not a typhoon). The center of that went right over Vancouver airport at midnight with a pressure of 958 mbs. About half the trees in western Washington state were blown down, you can still see areas south of Olympia WA that had total removal of mature forest. There was considerable damage in the Vancouver area and on Vancouver Island as well (so I am told, I didn't live out west in 1962, I was in Ontario).

Maybe they wasted the name Karen on that so if they need to name the coastal, which will be a high impact event, it won't have the name Karen and people won't focus on that. I don't think they will name this storm until possibly a late stage after it leaves the coast. That may mean the tropical system down around 15N will get a name first (Lorenzo) and the coastal could end up being Melissa. Or it could be just Lorenzo and no Melissa until later in October.

We have to count Karen the stats padding STS, it probably won't harm most peoples' scoring anyway. I am editing the scoring post.

I hope it maintains a social distance and complies with all health recommendations.

Jerry has now arrived, and is predicted to become a hurricane briefly southeast of Bermuda. This causes me to edit the table of scoring above, the potential for 10 5 3 is still in brackets and now 10 4 3 is scored. If we get further action in October I will post an actual scoring table in correct order, this one is basically upside down with a few exceptions.

I think the correct answers were 4/3/2. Season is now 10/4/3 so it was a boost to a rather anemic count by modern standards, fairly average for all data though. Could see the final count being 13/6/3 or 14/6/3, very close to 1991-2020 average, by no means a blockbuster season, and a lot of tracks staying out to sea. The only people sad about that are probably reading this.

If they confirm 84F as NYC high, it's t-5 with 1931 and 1951. 1941 (94F), 1922 (89F), and 1891, 1967 (86F) were top four. It replaces 83F (2007, 2017) as warmest since 1967.

The highest rainfall in the region was 3.74" at Stansbury Park which is near the southern end of Great Salt Lake about halfway from downtown SLC to Tooele. At the Nevada border, 100 miles west, rainfalls were only about 0.05" -- also much less rain fell in northern portions of the Wasatch Front around Tremonton (0.4") ... so this rainfall event was centered over the SLC to Lehi portion of the region between Great Salt Lake and Lake Utah. News reports show snowfall pictures at ski resorts above 7,000 feet.

SLC had 2.47" of rain on Saturday, easily breaking the daily record of 0.74" (1882). Some flooding problems were reported in the Salt Lake City and Tooele regions. official report ... their 2.43" value is only to 8 p.m. ... seems to be the new October record as it is second all-time 24h rainfall and record 2.64" set May 3, 1901. RECORD EVENT REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT823 PM MDT SAT OCT 04 2025...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM RAINFALL SET AT SALT LAKE CITY UT...AS OF 800 PM MDT A RECORD RAINFALL OF 2.43 INCHES WAS SET AT SALT LAKE CITY UT. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 0.74 INCHES SET IN 1882.THE DAILY TOTAL OF 2.43 IS THE SECOND HIGHEST DAILY PRECIPITATION ON RECORD FOR SALT LAKE CITY UT (2.64 SET ON MAY 3 1901). THE TWO DAY TOTAL OF 2.57 INCHES IS THE FIFTH HIGHEST 2 DAY TOTAL ON RECORD FOR SALT LAKE CITY UT (3.55 INCHES SET ON MAY 3-4TH 1901).

This is the entire list of times where three or more days in October had max 80 or higher at NYC ... ... ... daily records involved are in bold. The list is organized by value exceeded on all three days underlined if the spell lasted more than three days. ... ... (spells not ranked have 80+ for Sep 30 to Oct 2) 1. 88 94 90 ___ Oct 4-6 1941 (-- 85 88 90) ___ Sep 30 - Oct 2 1927 2. 84 86 87 81 __ Oct 11-14, 1954 3. 84 88 85 83 __ Oct 9-12, 1949 4. 84 85 84 ___ Oct 1-3 1968 5. 83 84 86 ___ Oct 3-5 1891 6. 84 83 83 82 87 __ Oct 4-8 2007 7. 82 88 86 ___ Oct 1-3 1922 8. 84 86 82 83 __ Oct 1-4 1954 (Sep 30 was 83) 9. 86 82 88 ___ Oct 4-6 1959 10. 84 82 81 84 80 __ Oct 6-10 1990 11. 82 84 82 ___ Oct 3-5 1983 12. 81 84 86 ___ Oct 3-5 1967 13. 81 81 85 ____ Oct 17-19 2016 14. 83 82 81 ____ Oct 5-7 2017 (followed by 77 77 81 77) 15. 82 84 80 80 _ Oct 4-7 2025 16. 80 80 81 ___ Oct 3-5 1898 17. 80 82 80 ___ Oct 3-5 1973 _______________ Other impressive warm spells ... ranks are determined by lowest max in any three days 18. 83 82 79 __ Oct 17-19 1928 came very close to making list. 19. 85 78 85 __ Oct 3-5 1879 might have gotten there in today's urban heat island. 20. 79 83 83 76 83 __ Oct 15-19 1963 Unranked but similar three day averages ... 82 87 71 __ Oct 15-17 1897 75 84 83 __ Oct 20-22 1920 75 82 90 __ Oct 15-17 1938 84 91 75 __ Oct 9-11 1939 84 86 76 86 __ Oct 5-8 1931 and 80 76 84 86 __ Oct 6-9 1916 are impressive four-day spells. 78 77 82 81 __ Oct 29-31 1946 80 83 74 85 __ Oct 20-23 1947 79 76 84 83 __ Oct 30 - Nov 2 1950 75 84 81 76 __ Oct 14-17 1956 84 83 76 74 80 __ Oct 9-13 1961 77 79 78 82 __ Oct 24-27 1963 80 81 78 ___ Oct 16-18 1968 74 78 73 ___ Nov 3-5 1975 also 71 76 75 Nov 7-9 1975 76 80 88 78 ___ Oct 20-23 1979 77 76 77 76 ___ Oct 26-29 1989 (included for lateness of season) 77 81 86 ___ Oct 11-13 1995 77 84 81 ___ Oct 8-10 2011 82 83 78 86 __ Oct 1-4 2013 78 76 74 74 ___ Oct 21-24 2017 74 75 75 74 ___ Nov 7-10 2020 76 75 77 ___ Nov 5-7 2022 77 74 80 ___ Oct 26-28 2023 76 81 79 ___ Oct 29-31 2024 A lot of daily records in October are part of two-day 80+ spells and lack the third day to enter the list. It seems that there is often a tendency for a reload of near 80 readings about five days after any given 2-4 day spell.

Next three days coincide with warmest three-day interval for NYC highs in October (1941) 88 _ 94 _ 90, all daily records. Here are the rest of the NYC records ... <<<< OCTOBER >>>> For 2d rainfalls, which always end on date cited, ** indicates all rain fell only on that date, and ^ indicates all precip fell on the previous day while none fell on date listed. ... * indicates notes at bottom of table. In the snowfall column before it begins listing on 10th, some other rainfall events are noted. In Low min, a value in brackets indicates a max for that date not a record low max as well. Some low mins have an associated record low max (e.g., 5th 1881, after all that warm weather in Sep 1881). DATE ____ Hi max __ Hi min _____ Low max ____ Low min __________ Max prec (r) _ Max 2d rain _ Max snow (10th to 31st) Oct 01 ___ 88 1927 __ 72 1881, 1954 _ 51 1899 ___ 36 1947 (60) ______4.98 1913 ___ 4.98 1913*__ 2d rain 3.56 2010 (1.10+2.46) Oct 02 ___ 93 2019 __ 72 1954 ______ 49 1899 ___ 39 1886 (54) ______2.16 1929 ___ 5.28 1913 __ Oct 03 ___ 87 1919 __ 68 1954, 69 ___ 47 1888 ___ 38 1888,99,1974 __1.84 1869 ___ 2.16 1929**_ Oct 04 ___ 88 1941 __ 75 1898 _______ 51 1883 ___ 37 1888 (55) ______4.05 1877 ___ 4.05 1877*__ 2d rain 3.90 1869 (1.84+2.06) Oct 05 ___ 94 1941^__ 75 1898^______50 1881 ___ 35 1881 ___________1.99 1995 ___ 4.07 1877 __ Oct 06 ___ 90 1941 __ 71 1910 _______ 50 1935 ___ 36 1881 (60) ______2.70 1871 ___ 2.70 1871*__ 2.39" R 1955 (1d) Oct 07 ___ 88 1944 __ 70 2005 ______ 48 1873 __ 39 1954, 99 _______4.09 1972 ___ 4.38 1972 __ Oct 08 ___ 87 2007 __ 72 2017 ______ 45 1988 ___ 37 1988 __________ 4.30 1903 ___ 4.49 2005 (0.23+4.26) ^ Oct 09 ___ 86 1916 __ 71 2017 _______ 43 1888 ___ 37 1888, 1988 ____ 7.33 1903 ___11.63 1903 __ Oct 10 ___ 91 1939 __ 71 2018 _______ 43 1925 ___ 35 1888 ___________2.44 1871 ___ 7.50 1903 __ Tr sn 1925,79 Oct 11 ___ 85 1949 __ 69 2018 _______ 48 1951 ___ 34 1964 (55) ______3.06 2002 ___ 3.25 2002 __ Oct 12 ___ 86 1928,54 _ 67 1954 ____ 49 1875,87,91_35 1876 (52) ______4.26 2005 __ 4.39 2005, 4.34 2002 _ 3.40 1983 1dR Oct 13 ___ 87 1954 __ 69 1990 _______ 47 1874 ___ 34 1875 (51) ______2.75 2005 ___ 7.01 2005 __ Tr sn 1937 Oct 14 ___ 84 1920 __ 68 1990 _______ 45 1889 ___ 37 1988 (53 13th)_ 1.76 1995 ___ 4.29 2005 __ Oct 15 ___ 84 1956 __ 69 2014 _______ 46 1876 ___ 32 1876 __________ 1.70 1943 ___ 1.95 1995 __ 0.5 sn 1876 Oct 16 ___ 87 1897 __ 67 1897 _______ 46 2009 ___ 34 1876 (49) ______2.15 1974 ___ 2.35 1974 __ (all entries snow from here on) Oct 17 ___ 90 1938 __ 67 1928 _______ 47 1970 ___ 33 1886 (47 16th) _2.28 1936 ___ 2.30 1936 __ Trace 1929 Oct 18 ___ 82 1928 __ 69 1928 _______ 45 2009 ___ 35 1929,39,74 _____2.45 1911 ___ 3.24 1932^__Trace 1926,72 Oct 19 ___ 85 2016 __ 68 1905 _______ 43 1972 ___ 30 1940 (45) ______4.35 1996^___ 4.35 1996*__ Trace 1940,72 Oct 20 ___ 80 1947,69 _ 65 1916, 84 ___44 1974 __ 31 1974 ___________2.78 1989 ___ 4.50 1996^__ 0.5 1952 Oct 21 ___ 84 1920 __ 64 1947, 79 ___ 43 1888 ___ 31 1871 (52 20th) _2.17 1995 ___ 2.78 1989^_ Oct 22 ___ 88 1979 __ 67 1979 _______ 43 1887 ___ 30 1940 (51) ______1.51 2014 ___ 2.17 1995^ _ Oct 23 ___ 85 1947 __ 67 1979 _______ 42 1889 ___ 32 1969 (43) ______2.97 1912 ___ 2.99 1912 __ Oct 24 ___ 79 2001 __ 67 2017 _______ 44 1889 ___ 31 1969 (51) ______2.51 1917 ___ 3.92 1923* __Tr 1960 Oct 25 ___ 79 1963 __ 69 1908 _______ 40 1879 ___ 29 1879 __________ 3.30 1913 ___ 3.94 1913 __ Oct 26 ___ 78 1963,64 _66 1908 ______ 39 1962 __ 30 1869, 79 ______ 3.40 1943 ___ 3.54 1943 __ Tr 1903,28,62 Oct 27 ___ 82 1963 __ 66 1908 _______ 39 1869 ___ 28 1936 (43) ______1.88 2003 ___ 3.55 1943 __ Tr 1903,44 Oct 28 ___ 83 1919 __ 64 1971 ________ 41 1876 ___ 29 1976 (42 27th)_ 2.49 1953 ___ 2.54 2006 __ Tr 1925,34,65 Oct 29 ___ 78 1971 __ 63 1946 ______43 1909,25,52_ 31 1925 (43) ______3.67 1973 ___ 3.67 1973**__ 2.9 2011 Oct 30 ___ 82 1946,61 _ 64 1918, 46 ___ 38 1925 __ 31 1925 __________1.64 1917 ___ 3.89 1973 __ 0.8 1925 Oct 31 ___ 81 1946, 2024 __62 1881, 1961 _ 41 1869 _29 1887, 1925____2.41 1956___ 2.41 1956**__ (no snow) -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- ^ 5th _ Min with the extreme Oct max of 94 in 1941 was 71. Max with the extreme high mins in 1898 were 80, 81. ^ 7th to 14th _ 2005 had 13.25" rain in eight days with two amounts of 4.26" (8th,12th) and another 4.29" 13th-14th. ^ 18th _ 2d max rain 1932 3.24" (1.15+2.09) also 2.89" 1927 (0.98+1.91). Both greater than 1911 which had zero added. ^ 19th _ 3.12" R in 1966 (1d) .. 3.72 2d 1911 (2.45+1.27). ^ 20th _ 4.19" 2d rain 1989 (1.41+2.78) ^ 23-24 _ 3.92" 2d rain 1923 (2.45+1.47) ^ 31st _ 2024 min 61F not a record

I think the tied high score for September (Scotty and myself) is the first one since May 2023. There was a later case (Oct 2023) where high score was a little ahead of a second score with a late penalty, and a little behind the raw score before late penalty. The final phase of this contest is going to be very interesting. Tom has a fairly comfortable lead but there are three or four others within striking distance. I think RodneyS, wxdude64, myself and StormchaserChuck have fallen a bit too far back to have any realistic chance, the rest of the regulars have a chance.

__ Table of forecasts for October 2025 __ FORECASTER __________ DCA _NYC _BOS _ORD _ATL _IAH __DEN _PHX _SEA Ephesians2 ____________+4.3 _+3.8 _+3.5 _+5.4 _+4.0 _+3.6 _+1.0 _+1.3 _ -0.5 Roger Smith ___________ +3.5 _+4.0 _+4.3 _+5.2 _+3.5 _+3.5 _+2.0 _+2.0 _+1.2 StormchaserChuck1 ___ +3.2 _+3.5 _+3.5 _+5.7 _+2.9 _+2.5 _+0.5 _+0.2 __0.0 RJay ___________________ +3.0 _+3.5 _+3.5 _+5.5 _+2.0 _+2.0 _+2.0 __0.0 __0.0 DonSutherland1 ________ +2.5 _+2.6 _+2.5 _+5.4 _+1.7 _+1.7 _+3.2 _+2.6 _+0.2 wxallannj _______________+2.3 _+2.4 _+2.5 _ +2.0 _+1.8 _+2.3 _+1.0 _+0.7 _+0.4 hudsonvalley21 _________+2.1 _+2.1 _ +2.1 __ +3.2 _+1.2 _+1.8 _ +2.1 _+1.9 _+0.2 ___ Consensus _________+2.1 _+2.2 _+2.3__+3.4_+1.7 _+1.9 _+1.3 _+1.1 _+0.5 so_whats_happening __ +2.0 _+2.3 _+2.4 _ +3.5 _+1.6 _+2.1 _ +1.4 _ +1.0 _ +1.6 yoda ___________________ +1.8 _+1.4 _+1.3 __+2.5 _ +1.7 _+1.8 _ +1.3 _ +1.9 _+0.3 BKViking _______________ +1.6 _+1.7 _+1.7 __+1.7 _+1.5 _+1.2 __+1.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.8 Tom ____________________ +1.5 _+1.6 _+1.6 __+2.8 _+1.5 _+1.1 __+1.2 _ +1.1 _ +0.5 Scotty Lightning ________+1.5 _+1.0 _+1.0 __+1.0 _ +1.5 _+1.0 __+1.0 _+1.5 _+0.5 wxdude64 ______________+0.6 _+0.7 _+0.3 _-0.2 _+0.8 _+0.5__-0.4 _-0.2 _+0.7 RodneyS _______________ +0.1 _ +1.7 _+1.6 __+3.8 _+0.6 _+3.0 _+1.6 _+0.6 _+0.9 ___ Normal ______________ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ___0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ___0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _______________ ___ Persistence __(Sep) _-0.2 _+1.4 _+0.9 _+3.0 _+2.5 _+1.2 _-0.1 _+1.0 _+1.5 _______________ ============== warmest and coldest forecasts are color coded; Normal is colder than all forecasts for DCA, NYC, BOS, ATL and IAH. Consensus is median value of 14 forecasts (not counting Persistence which is Sep 2025 anomalies, or Normal).