Roger Smith

Later update ... CF6 for EWR has been edited to show the 27.2" outcome. That means your top ten for the contest is as shown above. I will wait for the NYC debate to play itself out before editing the table, but in any case I will declare MJ0812 and hudsonvalley21 to be co-winners because of these fluctuations and the fact that MJ0812 retains the lowest total error if not the lowest total error squared. Each of them wins one of the ranking metrics. I won't keep posting about this, just check back in a few days and see what the table looks like then, maybe all five will change and I will have made use of MAID (it's a Canadian joke) ...

Thanks Don, I note that CF6 has been adjusted already and shows the same (10.1+17.1) total of 27.2" for Newark.

I ran the scoring program using 21.0" for NYC instead of 19.7" and it had very little effect on the ranks so it won't matter to the contest if they change that value within that range. I then ran the scoring program for 27.1" at EWR. That would change the scoring order at the top, as hudsonvalley21 would then have a 2.8" error and MJ0812 5.9" ... the lead changes hands at any value above 26.6" ... and it makes no difference to this what value NYC has since their forecasts are similar there. The late forecast from wannabehippie still finishes ahead of both, and would do so until around 28" ... MJ0812 would still have a lower total error than hudsonvalley21 and that is baked in as they both continue to add same differentials for any values. The rest of the top ten (main contest scoring metric of sum of error squared) with the two station changes would be 3. Nswx516 ... 4. hmdeutsch ... 5. kat5hurricane ... 6. dmillz25 ... 7. UKweathergeek 8. NWS ... 8. CPcantmeasuresnow ... 9. jaysoner ... 10. Weathergeek2026 So in that list, only kat5hurricane makes a significant move up the leaderboard due to their forecast being closest to the EWR total (among the top ten, TriPOL has a higher forecast of 26.0" but was not able to move up in ranks. I would not want to revise the final standings much later than today if one day later this month there is any indication of changes in these values ... so I think it's probably a good idea to make the point that we had two very accurate forecasts that are not separated very much by standard statistical measurements at any values in the ranges likely to be explored by later data.

Don, you have 27.2" for EWR as the PNS was saying yesterday but the two daily climate reports and the CF6 total 25,2" (8.1 + 17.1) ... do you think the official data will change to the 27.2" value? It affects scoring in the contest to some extent. I tried 21.0 instead of 19.7 for NYC and that makes very little difference as I report in more detail in the contest thread. Thanks.

I have just seen the new CF6 tables through Feb 23 and no changes were evident, totals are still NYC 19.7, LGA 22.5, ISP 29.1, JFK 20.1, EWR 25.2

What is the period of record for the PVD snowfall record set yesterday? I have mentioned before having the daily weather journal of Alexis Caswell at Brown University in Providence spanning winters 1831-32 to 1859-60. In all of those winters, some quite severe, there are no two-day snowfall events (indicating storm totals) greater than 20" ... these are a few of the larger storm totals he recorded ... the largest storm total in Feb was 15.0" (1846) and in March 9.5" (1835). For Nov the max was 10" (29th 1841). All of the largest falls were in the three winter months except for one in April (1841). Jan 5-6, 1856 ___ 20.0" Jan 18-19, 1857 __ 18.0" Apr 12-13, 1841 __ 18.0" Dec 29-30, 1853 __ 18.0"

I have checked full day calendar day 23rd climate reports and with one very minor exception the somewhat debatable numbers are confirmed. Annoyingly, EWR added 0.1" to their total. But NYC remains 19.7" despite potential for 1-2" additional after the early 1 p.m. report. I don't yet have any explanation for EWR showing up as 27.1" in PNS when their two daily amounts are 8.1 and 17.1 (previously 17.0). I will edit the table for those miniscule differentials for EWR. Doubt that it makes much difference to any rankings. Earlier in the process, I had hudsonvalley21 slightly ahead of MJ0812 because of the higher EWR estimate. There were other changes after that, at some higher value than 27" hudsonvalley21 would have a lower total squared error being a bit closer to any high value. That's why that part changed. I am going to check the CF6 data which is usually published around 5 a.m. for NYC area stations, to see if anything changes there -- the CF6 document was stated to be the ultimate guide to scoring this contest. Will either edit in a "no changes found" or tell you what changes I find. Later edit -- no changes to any contest snowfall values in CF6 tables. Remains 19.7 _ 22.5 _ 29.1 _ 20.1 _ 25.2 for two day storm totals.

Daily climate reports are out now, no changes in earlier (in some cases questioned) totals except that annoyingly EWR is up by 0.1" (17.1" 23rd now for 25.2" storm). This means several minutes of needless work over in the contest thread. I don't know what to say about NYC staying at 19.7" unless it's some voodoo logic like we cleared the board at 4 p.m., measured, and then by 7 p.m. there was nothing on the board that we could see from a distance. Any kind of logic would tell you the earlier 10.9 daily (+8.8 22nd) should be raised towards 12" and a 20.8" storm total. But whatever, it is what it is (not).

BOS shows as 17.1" in daily climate summary just out.

Well then ... how are we doing? I see I got my seasonal PVD forecast amount in one freakin' day.

In the NYC forum, SACRUS has a daily post of historical weather events for each day. Today there is an entry ... 1802 - A great snowstorm raged along the New England coast producing 48 inches of snow north of Boston. Three large ships from Salem were wrecked along Cape Cod. (David Ludlum)

Feb 22-23 2026. Nailed it.

Check back for updates, I don't entirely trust the NYC or EWR numbers, ranks are not likely to change much if at all.

Scoring (preliminary) _ Allsnow Blizzard snow predictions _ Feb 22-23 2026 ... note, set mag to 100% or lower to avoid table wrap on your screen ... ... these are based on preliminary estimates of final totals as shown ... ... note EWR has a lower total than was being shown earlier, perhaps this will be adjusted again later ... it resulted in a change from earlier calculations in the top two low error squared totals as well as several other rankings. RANK _FORECASTER ________ NYC_LGA_ISP_JFK_EWR _________ (error sq) ____ (errors) _________ TOTAL _ rank __________ actual storm totals ______ 19.7 _22.5 _29.1 _20.1 _25.2 _01__MJ0812__________________19.4_22.0_27.4_22.7_21.3 ______ ____25.20 ___ 0.3 _0.5 _1.7 _2.6 _3.9 ___ 9.0 _ 1 _02__hudsonvalley21 _________ 18.9_19.7_26.2_23.7_24.4 ______ ____ 30.49 ___ 0.8 _2.8 _2.9 _3.6 _0.8 __ 10.9 _ 2 _03__NsWx516 _______________ 18.0_20.0_25.0_21.0_23.0 ______ ____31.60_____ 1.7 _2.5 _4.1 _0.9 _2.2 ___ 11.4 _ 3 _04__hmdeutsch98 ___________ 21.1_22.2_24.8_18.1_20.8 ______ ____43.90 ___ 1.4 _ 0.3 _4.3 _2.0 _4.4 __ 12.4 _ 4 _05__dmillz25 _________________21.1_20.6_24.6_19.6_20.5 ______ ____48.16 ____ 1.4 _1.9 _4.5 _0.5 _4.7 ___ 13.0 _ 5 _06__UKWeatherGeek ________ 22.4_23.2_23.7_19.4_21.1 ______ ___ 54.24 ____ 2.7 _0.7 _5.4 _0.7 _4.1 ___ 13.6 _ 6 _07__CPcantmeasuresnow_____19.8_ 19.4_24.5_21.0_19.6 ______ ___ 62.95 ____ 0.1 _3.1 _ 4.6 _0.9 _5.6 ___ 14.3 _ 7 _08__jaysoner _________________17.8_19.9_ 23.5_20.6_20.5 ______ ___64.07 ____ 1.9 _2.6 _5.6 _0.5_ 4.7 __ 15.3 _ 10 _(08)__ NWS 07z fcsts _______20.0_21.5_23.3_22.9_20.5 ___ ___ 64.66____ 0.3 _1.0 _5.8 _2.8 _4.7 __ 13.0 _ (5) _09__WeatherGeek2025 _____ 21.0_21.0_26.0_22.0_18.0 ______ ____ 69.00 _____ 1.3 _1.5 _3.1 _1.9 _ 7.2 ___ 15.0 _ 9 _10__kat5hurricane ___________25.2_23.8_30.1_26.5_24.7 _____ ____74.15 _____ 5.5 _1.3 _ 1.0 _6.4 _0.5___ 14.7 _ 8 (11)____Consensus (median)__18.0_19.2_23.6_20.0_19.0 ______ ____ 82.46 _____ 1.7 _3.3 _5.5 _ 0.1_ 6.2 ___ 16.8 _(11) _11__NegNAO _________________15.8_17.9_27.5_22.6_18.5 _______ ___ 90.07 _____ 3.9 _4.6 _1.6 _ 2.5_ 6.7 __ 19.3 _ t-14 _12__JM1220 _________________ 18.4_19.1_23.2_20.6_18.7 _______ ___ 90.56 _____ 1.3 _3.4 _5.9 _0.5_6.5 ___ 17.6 _ t-11 _13__A_Status _________________17.2_18.4_23.8_21.2_18.9 _______ ___ 92.05 _____ 2.5 _4.1 _5.3 _ 1.1 _6.3 ___ 19.3 _ t-14 _14__Stormlover74 ___________ 18.7_20.2_21.3 _19.1_ 19.7 _______ ___ 98.38 _____ 1.0 _2.3 _7.8 _ 1.0 _5.5 ___ 17.6 _ t-11 _15__DonSutherland1 _________17.8_18.5_23.0_20.0_18.0 _______ ___ 108.67 _____ 1.9 _4.0 _ 6.1 _ 0.1_ 7.2 ___ 19.3 _ t-14 _16__Northshorekid __________ 19.8_19.2_22.8_20.9_17.4 _______ ___112.07 _____ 0.1 _3.3 _6.3 _ 0.8 _ 7.8 ___ 18.4 _ 13 _17__RJay ____________________ 17.0_19.0_ 21.0_20.0_19.0 _______ ___ 123.60 _____ 2.7 _3.5 _8.1 _0.1_ 6.2 ___ 20.6 _ t-18 _18__brooklynwx99 __________ 18.6_19.2_21.1 _20.3_18.1 _______ ___ 126.55 _____ 1.1 _3.3 _8.0 _ 0.2_ 7.1 ___ 19.7 _ 17 _19__Prue11 ___________________ 15.0_18.0_23.0_17.0_19.0 _______ ___ 127.60 _____ 4.7 _4.5 _6.1 _3.1_ 6.2 ___ 24.6 _ 21 _20__Snowlover11 _____________18.0_19.0_22.0_20.0_17.0 ______ ___ 132.40 ______ 1.7 _ 3.5 _7.1 _0.1 _ 8.2 ___ 20.6 _ t-18 _21__Juliancolton _____________13.4_15.7_24.0_16.2_21.3 _______ ___ 142.36 _____ 6.3 _6.8 _5.1 _ 3.9_ 3.9 ___ 26.0 _ 23 _22__hooralph _________________15.1_18.2_22.5_19.8_17.5 _______ ___ 142.57 _____ 4.6 _4.3 _6.6 _0.3 _ 7.7 ___ 23.5 _ 20 _23__SACRUS _________________16.0_17.4_20.0_19.1_18.6 _______ ___ 167.07 _____ 3.7 _5.1 _ 9.1 _ 1.0_ 6.6 ___ 25.5 _ 22 _24__Roger Smith ____________ 16.5_17.0_23.9_14.5_16.8 _______ ___ 169.47 _____3.2 _5.5 _5.2 _5.6_ 8.4 ___ 27.9 _ 24 _25__coastalplainsnowman___ 28.0_30.0_31.0_29.0_32.0 _____ ___ 256.96 _____8.3 _7.5 _1.9 _8.9 _7.0 ___ 33.6 _ 26 _26__ TriPOL __________________29.8_25.0_32.0_33.0_26.0 ____ ___ 283.72 ____ 10.1 _2.5 _2.9_12.9 _0.8 ___ 29.2 _ 25 _27__BxEngine ________________ 12.3_14.9_22.0_17.5_12.8 _______ ___323.45 _____ 7.4 _7.6 _7.1 _2.6_ 12.4 ___ 37.1 _ 27 _28__Stormpc _________________ 11.8_14.4_16.7_ 12.0_14.8 _______ ___455.55 _____ 7.9 _8.1 _12.4 _8.1_10.4 ___ 46.9 _ 28 _29__WintryMixmaster ________ 12.9_13.0_15.8_13.9_ 13.2 ______ ___ 495.82 _____ 6.8 _9.5_13.3 _6.2_12.0 ___ 47.8 _ 29 _30__dseagull __________________9.4_12.5_16.0_13.3 _11.8 _______ ___ 603.50 _____10.3_10.0_13.1 _6.8_13.4 ___ 53.6 _ 30 <<< FORECASTS (or edits) AFTER THIS POST WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN CONTEST SCORING >>> 30 entries received by deadline consensus does not include NWS forecasts and your rank is not affected by their rank. Scores and rankings that two late entries would have received wannabehippie _____________ 19.5 _ 21.5 _26.5 _ 22.0 _22.5 ________ 18.70 ______ 8.4 __ would have ranked 1st, 1st nesussxwx1 _________________13.8 _ 17.9 _ 18.6 _ 17.0 _ 15.5 ________ 269.92 _____33.8 __ would have ranked 27th, 28th** ** ranks if both late forecasts participated. NOTES: 1. The table above is subject to adjustment if any daily snowfall values as listed so far are changed by tonight's CF6 final. 2. Best forecasts are shown in red highlight (in forecasts and in errors)

It appears that NYC did not add any snow after 1 p.m. (to their report) ... total is still 19.7" in climate summary just issued. I suppose that could be adjusted later. LGA total is now 22.5 ISP total is now 29.1 JFK total is now 20.1 EWR total is now 25.1 ... not sure why today's total does not add up to earlier reports I saw ... will see what all these say at end of day in CF6 documents ...

It takes the moon 29.5 days to orbit the earth (relative to Sun, it takes 27.32 days relative to the fixed star background). These dates and times are 29.5 days apart. Dec 26 2025 18z Jan 25 2026 06z Feb 23 2026 18z Hmm. - - - - Contest scoring will be available about an hour from now, I am awaiting final totals as posted in today's 5 p.m. climate summaries. Scoring is backed up on an excel file so it won't take long to recalculate from some estimates already made.

Thanks for updating, CPetc, I have been working out scoring from approx values similar to your post, and it appears that hudsonvalley21 has a slight lead on MJ0812 in the error squared category, while MJ0812 is a little ahead of hudsonvalley21 in the total error count. Kat5hurricane is third in both (preliminary). I will wait until today's 5 pm climate reports to post these tables already fairly close to being complete. That may or may not be the final values reported at end of day which will be used to verify or adjust the table. Our consensus was quite good and so was the NWS, but both were significantly low for ISP and EWR. These both score around 8th overall (without affecting your forecaster ranks afterwards).

I would have to read 30 pages to find out, but two questions: updated totals at contest sites (have seen ISP and EWR in recent pages), and what happened to the snakes being driven from DC to NYC? Oh and the GFS says "how'm I lookin?"

Tracking center by obs at 44008 (54SE Nantucket) low appears to have passed about 50 miles southeast of that location, in past hour, as pressure has levelled off at 972 mbs and wind backed to NNE (not very strong as it's close to the core). Would therefore estimate center in low 968 at around 40.0N 68.7W and headed for landfall in eastern Nova Scotia late today.

Click on the three dots upper right corner of your post.

Nantucket 54SE buoy reports ENE 43 kt g 54 kt, 38F, 983 mbs and 18' wave heights ... the deepening (!) low will track just south of that location in about six or seven hours. That would suggest the 50-60 mph winds will be pushed up over southeast MA around that time, and could increase to 60-80 mph. There are going to be some brutal conditions in eastern MA, RI and se CT between now and about noon, If you don't already have this bookmarked, here you go ... NDBC - Station 44008 Recent Data

This snowstorm falls during an interval of relatively weak daily snowfall records and 2-day snowfall totals. You may have read earlier that the Feb 22nd record of 6.0" (2008) at NYC was broken (8.8"). Today's record is even weaker, 4.8" fell on Feb 23, 1972. That seems likely to go as well. The record 2d snowfall for Feb 22-23 is already broken too, that was the 6.0" value from 2008 but also 5.8" fell in 2001 (5.5" 22nd + 0.3" 23rd). The record for Feb 24 was also a low one, 6.0" fell in 1907. Following the snowfall in 1972, record high temperatures were set on March 1 and 2. (73F, 72F) ... the remainder of March then turned quite cold and it remained chilly in April, fairly warm in May, and near-record cool in June when Hurricane Agnes did its inland loop. I recall that later into spring 2008 there was a succession of heavy snowfalls into northern New England and eastern Canada.

6.5" PHL and 6.9" ACY to midnight did not quite break 2001 date records close to 7 in.

No, but some drifts may exceed 8 feet. I assume it's a fun question about those amounts, but I would say local max to 36 inches is possible, 30 almost certain. Think it's already pretty obvious where in NJ and central LI, and would say (like BOX is forecasting) inland SE Mass. Can you wring 12 inches out of this? Seems a rather compact if potent storm. I already said 23 inches for BOS yesterday, sticking to that.

The 500 mb low has not quite captured the coastal yet and it is supposed to drop from 528 to 510 overnight while the surface low drops from maybe 990 at present to 970 or a bit lower. You would have to say that promises all-out mayhem on radar across Long Island and later SE Mass before morning.