Roger Smith

It is a bit hit or miss for details before about 1850, I've found, knowing some other sources for European storms like a destructive windstorm in Ireland in Jan 1839 for which maps seem under-done on intensity, but yes it can be used in combination with the Alexis Caswell Providence RI weather diary to get a very good idea of what was going on even back a bit before the map series now starts. In my thread in the climate change forum (NYC and Toronto weather records analyzed) I've got a link to Caswell's diary on line version, and also I compiled daily records for is 30-year period of obs (1831-60) including quite a few big snowstorms. Just off the top of my head, blizzards in Jan 1852, Dec 1853 around New Years eve, early Jan 1856 and the super cold outbreak blizzard of (around) Jan 21, 1857, so a very active period 1852 to 1857. That severe winter episode was followed within 2-3 weeks by record warmth and flooding rains (ice jams). It was not as active either side (but there's a very juicy looking storm around Feb 5, 1845 that I know dumped 15-20 inches on Toronto. Another historic storm where you can see some map details would be Jan 31, 1843, a pattern changer that led into a long interval of severe winter conditions in the U.S. midwest states (very harsh for two months in WI and IL).

In that interval (1949 to 1955) there were several brutal heat waves (1949, 1952, 1953, 1954 and 1955, and a brief record-breaking burst of heat also in June 1956 followed by a cool, wet summer (but that was after the 6" daily snow drought ended anyway). Also in 1950 Jan and Nov all-time temperature records were set. 1951 was more moderate for warmth. There was actually a snowfall of 7.8" Jan 10-11, 1954 but 5.4" was its top daily amount in that event. (I looked to see what was the top snowfall in the lean snow period, think it was that one). Feb 1954 was a very mild month also coast to coast, some all-time temperature records were set in Alberta. Even so, early spring of 1954 turned quite cold with some records set in early April. I wonder if you will see an early spring warm spell and a week or two of cold later in march or April (like 1972 and 1982).

Stats for Central Park NYC Feb 1899 Date __ max ___ min _____ Prec ___ Snow _ 01 ___ 21 _____ 12 _______ 0.01 ___ 1.0 __ 2.0" 2d (1.0" also Jan 31) _02 ___ 35 _____ 16 _______ 0.00 ___ 0.0 _03 ___ 40 _____ 28 _______ 0.12 ___ 0.0 _04 ___ 39 _____ 27 _______ 0.16 ___ 0.0 _05 ___ 35 _____ 26 _______ 0.15 ___ 1.0 _06 ___ 31 _____ 24 _______ 0.09 ___ 0.8 (1.8 2d) _07 ___ 28 _____ 24 _______ 0.20 ___ 2.6 _08 ___ 31 _____ 11 ________ 0.30 ___ 3.9 (6.5 2d) _09 ___ 11 _____-02 _______ 0.00 ___ 0.0 _10 ___ 07 _____-06 _______ 0.00 ___ 0.0 _11 ___ 09 _____-02 _______ 0.00 ___ 0.0 _12 ___ 09 _____ 04 _______ 0.23 ___ 5.3 _13 ___ 11 _____ 06 _______ 0.47 ___ 10.7 (16.0)2d _14 ___ 24 _____ 10 _______ 0.00 ___ 0.0 _15 ___ 35 _____ 18 _______ 0.00 ___ 0.0 _16 ___ 37 _____ 26 _______ 0.71 ___ 0.0 _17 ___ 47 _____ 34 _______ 0.00 ___ 0.0 _18 ___ 45 _____ 36 _______ 0.43 ___ 0.0 _19 ___ 41 _____ 36 _______ 0.01 ___ 0.0 _20___ 49 _____ 36 _______ 0.00 ___ 0.0 _21 ___ 53 _____ 40 _______ 0.00 ___ 0.0 _22 ___ 52 _____ 41 _______ 0.00 ___ 0.0 _23 ___ 46 _____ 34 _______ 0.00 ___ 0.0 _24 ___ 34 _____ 26 _______ 0.00 ___ 0.0 _25 ___ 40 _____ 22 _______ 0.00 ___ 0.0 _26 ___ 45 _____ 32 _______ 1.00 ___ Tr _ _27 ___ 50 _____ 36 _______ 0.03 ___ 0.0 _28 ___ 45 _____ 27 _______ 0.00 ___ 0.0 avg,_ 33.9 ____ 21.8 ______ 3.91 ___ 25.3" snow tot __ ___( 27.8 )___ __ __ __ (1.72" rain on days w/zero snow + any mixed in on snowfall days -- probably zero) Ground was likely bare to traces on Jan 30, but frozen, 2" fell 31st-1st to start February, after a rainstorm (1.55") on Jan 24 near 50F probably removed any snow cover (no large falls in Jan before it). Temperatures fell below freezing around Jan 28 but only small amounts of snow fell Jan 24 to 30. Low max readings are still daily records for Feb 10, 11, 12, 13. (Feb 9 11F broken by 8F in 1934) ... Low min Feb 10, 11 still records; Feb 9 (-2) was broken in 1934. Note five consecutive days max temp 11 F or lower (Feb 9-13) leading up to blizzard. Not sure about reports for blizzard being on Feb 14, sources I consulted verify overnite Feb 12-13, low was closest to NYC 12z to 18z Feb 13 and in eastern Canada by Feb 14. Blizzard conditions probably persisted into Feb 14 due to strong winds. 16.0" of snow fell Feb 12-13 at NYC. Cold rainfall after snowstorm must have made a real mess of recovery efforts, wonder if it glazed over for part of Feb 16? Next rainfall on Feb 18 likely left a lot of slushy ponding, full snow melt likely in warmer days around Feb 20-22. max 53F Feb 21 was a record (1869-1899) only to 1906 (58F), broken several more times since. A lot of rain fell in a cold second half of march and 3.0" snow on mar 7, 1.0" mar 25-26. April was reasonably warm and it was briefly very warm Apr 30 to may 2 (76, 84, 86) ... warmest part of summer was early June, several days in mid 90s June 5-8 and another notable cold spell came Oct 1-3 (max 51, 49, 52, min 42, 40, 38). Storm position s.e. of NYC at 18z Feb 13, 1899 from NOAA (wetterzentrale). http://wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?map=2&model=noaa&var=1&jaar=1899&maand=02&dag=13&uur=1800&h=0&tr=360&nmaps=24#mapref You could look back or forward to see rest of key events. Earlier 6.5" snowstorm was a coastal low also. First rainfall looked like a weak nor'easter, flow lifted in stages after Feb 17. Feb 14 1899 probably a ground blizzard situation, strong N-NW winds but likely sunny and cold above blowing snow.

Possibly a very large spread IAD-DCA? I could see it being like 6" to 2" and BWI in between.

Could verify near-blizzard BOS south towards Plymouth and Taunton, but I believe best of this storm will be sCT into RI and se MA with BOS near northern edge of 5-8" band. Local 10 or even 12 inch amounts possible in sNE, too bad it's moving so fast tomorrow, will be good rates for 4-6 hrs. A sharp snowfall gradient likely north of a BOS-ORh -BDL axis. Very windy at times as low bombs for several hours around 12-18z.

Long Island Sound convergence potential, will enhance rates over n metro NYC and into ne NJ, given rapid intensification over Atlantic, expect very strong wind gusts to develop in that zone also. Expected obs in zone would be S+ 31/30 0632G47. Near blizzard conditions could develop locally. Possible TSW also. Thinking around 4-6" JFK, 5-7" NYC, 8-10" LGA and EWR, 7-9" ISP and 10-12" sw CT. Would double expected snow (to 3-6) in central NJ, arctic front will be past ACY by 12z. Too bad it's so fast, could be a 20" type of event at a slower pace. Track is now locking into a perfect hit. Sharp n cutoff may be overdone, these storms often find a way to throw a bit of extra moisture north, but axis of heaviest snowfalls likely to be near e/c PA to n/c NJ to n shore of LI Sound.

It's 96-108 hours away, plenty of time for further adjustments. They had a completely different day of weather in Phoenix today from what their forecast said at 0800h. The weather girl on the PGA golf coverage set said she had no idea it was going to rain and didn't bring an umbrella. Of course in fairness, she probably doesn't have an umbrella.

Doctor No says maybe.

Any mention on your local news of the emergency situation in eastern Nova Scotia and PEI? People are snowed in by that slow-moving storm last week, with 30-40 inches on the ground. Could be an opportunity for anyone with a plow on their pickup to contract some work as local crews are overwhelmed trying to keep major routes open. Last few days at Sydney, NS (converted to F and in): Date ___ max __ min _____ snow ___ snow depth Feb 2 ___ 32 ___ 28 _____ 3.9 _______ 5" Feb 3 ___ 31 ___ 29 _____ 16.1 _______11" Feb 4 ___ 33 ___ 28 _____14.0 _______28" Feb 5 ___ 33 ___ 32 _____ 4.4 _______41" Feb 6 ___ 33 ___ 29 _____ 0.6 _______42" winds have been N-NNE 25-35 mph so not severely drifted just a level or undulating 3-4 feet. It's an area used to snow and probably 2' cover is not unusual but 3-4 feet is trapping people in their residences.

Euro not as good, similar track but absence of colder air until storm explodes off coast. GFS holds the only promise of significant snowfall south of 40N. At this time range, not an entirely bad situation. I am seeing hints of a two-wave solution developing, that may work in your favor.

I bet $18.99.

12-18" will fall and 3.7" will be measured.

I see some potential in that for two reasons, (a) it does not have very much warm advection, and (b) it develops a tight northeast to north gradient just as it's leaving land. It doesn't look like it wants to edge north which is also good, if it could edge south towards NC-VA border it could improve. 1-3" first call. Wherever it does set up will get 4-6" but that looks to be se PA into s NJ at present. Blizzard of 1899 clone on Feb 18-19 gets your attention.

Nature created many dry lakes in western interior, now we've created a few more.

RJay, I saw your post in the NYC banter thread, and I see the above forecast. As you know, I did try to alert you to the late forecast situation. I will ask the gang here how much leniency I could show == as you know, I don't want to be punitive in a fun contest, especially with a regular entrant, but I can't accept a forecast without any late penalty during seriously late time periods (I have looked the other way for just about everybody here once or twice on 1st afternoon/evening and gone very lenient on 2nd). So hang in there, I will see what we can do about this one. Part of my decision would be based on how much advantage could you have gained by looking at charts on 3rd and posting the above, having not looked yet, I don't know how different your forecast is from others. (okay now I looked, it's fairly close to consensus ... and I don't believe guidance has changed a lot since I looked at it on Jan 31st) By the way, still cannot send you private message, tried just now. I am going to suggest 10% if anyone wants to comment on that send me a p.m.

No wonder (North) America is ahead, always go with leading edge technology. These underground computers do nothing but process visual cues for a full year and then without trace of error they proclaim an infallible result. Or so I was told by Wiarton Willie (Canada's leading climate expert) (Wiarton is YVV on Lake huron, Georgian Bay actually). There is also a Shubenacadie Sam but I understand he could not get through the 40" snow drift to give his opinion, but I would say six more weeks of winter could be a sensible interpretation of what he was grunting down there under the snow. (eastern NS has been buried in 30-40 inches of snow recently). I laugh at media coverage out west, we also have not only groundhogs but marmots looking for shadows. The news guy says, without any trace of irony, "In the east, P-Phil (or Wiarton Willie etc) are calling for an early spring, but our local expert, Cascades Curtis (or whoever) disagrees ... and calls for six more weeks of winter. Talk about a grasp of climate, either spring comes early or winter stays on everywhere in N America. ... and they want to be my latex salesmen. Anyway, I know they only show the rodents to annoy their weather person who has to pretend to be interested. Usually the intro is, "the rodent says X but our expert, who is so much smarter than a rodent, says what? Expert? Are you awake?" And they don't really sound very confident about knowing more than a rodent, to be honest.

Could add to historical notes, on Feb 3, 1947 Canada saw its lowest ever recorded temperature of -81 F at Snag located near the Alaska border. That station no longer exists, it was active due to WW-II construction projects and closed many years ago. Watson Lake in southeast Yukon had its lowest ever value of -74 F on Jan 31, 1947, so it was quite a cold week up there (I noted the Alaska records mentioned today and previous days incl -80 F). 1947 is also famous for a very severe winter in Britain and northern Europe, the Baltic Sea was almost totally frozen over (which is quite unusual south of Finland) and in England and Ireland, large snow drifts stopped road and railway travel for days or weeks at a time. It was the coldest February on record (-1.9 C) in the Central England Temperature Series (1659 to present), 1895 was 0.1 C warmer at -1.8 C, but still has the coldest week or 10-day intervals. The coldest January was 1795 (-3.1 C) and the coldest December was 1890 at -0.8 C although 2010 came very close at -0.7 C. Those record low averages sound fairly moderate (they would be close to average for Albany NY) but as experienced in a country in those days without central heating and beside a large body of open water (North Sea), so that strong east to northeast winds can bring a lot of snow and also that sort of weather over there often ends up in the -3 to -1 C range, keeping means up, but if it clears at any point, it can go down below -20 C in rural areas as it did in those years I mentioned. The coldest day on record in Britain was Jan 20, 1838 with a mean of -12 C in the CET. 1962-63 was also a very cold winter in Britain and Ireland, with locally heavy snowfalls. There were days in Jan 1963 and again in Dec 1981 with averages near -9 C, as cold as it has been since Feb 1895. Odd factoid -- early winter cold is not well correlated on either side of Atlantic, but late winter cold is very well correlated. I guess it has to do with Greenland blocking highs being more likely to produce a cold Feb or March.

Table of forecasts for February 2024 __FORECASTER __________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA rainsucks ________________________ +4.0 _ +4.3 _+4.5 __ +6.5 __ 0.0 _ +1.9 __ +1.6 _ -0.5 _ +0.8 RJay _____ (-10%) ________________ +2.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.0 __ +3.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ +3.0 __0.0 _ +2.0 wxallannj ________________________ +1.5 _ +2.0 _ +2.2 __ +2.8 _ +0.8 _ +1.6 __ +2.0 _ +1.5 _ +0.5 hudsonvalley21 __________________ +1.5 _ +1.2 _ +1.4 __ +1.4 _ +0.3 _ +2.1 ___ +1.6 _ +1.1 _ -0.4 DonSutherland1 _________________ +1.4 _ +1.6 _ +1.5 __ +4.5 _ -0.1 _ +0.6 ___ +3.0 __ 0.0 _ +3.0 so_whats_happening ____________ +1.4 _ +1.5 _ +1.8 __ +5.0 _ -0.5 _ -1.0 ___ +1.9 _ -1.3 _ +2.0 BKViking _________________________+1.2 _ +1.2 _ +1.0 __ +0.9 _ +0.4 _ +1.0 ___ +2.3 _ +1.6 _ +1.2 ___ Consensus __________________+1.1 _ +1.2 _ +1.1 __ +2.1 __ 0.0 _ +0.3 ___+1.6 _ +0.3 _+1.0 Scotty Lightning _________________ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 ___ 0.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.5 ___ +1.0 _ +1.5 __ 0.0 Tom ______________________________+0.6 _ +0.8 _ +1.1 ___ +1.2 _ -0.6 _ -0.3 ___ +0.7 _ +0.6 _ +1.1 RodneyS ________________________ +0.3 _ +1.9 _ +1.0 __ +3.5 __ 0.0 _ +1.8 ___ +0.8 _ -1.3 _ -0.2 Stormchaser Chuck _______________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ +3.0 _ -2.3 _ -1.8 ___ +2.0 _ +1.0 _ +2.5 ___Normal _______________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 wxdude64 ________________________-0.2 _ +0.6 _ +0.4 __ +1.2 _ -0.9 _ -0.3 ___ +0.6 _ -1.1 _ +0.5 Rhino16 ___________________________-1.0 __ -1.5 _ -0.8 __ +0.5 _ -1.2 _ -0.1 ___ +0.1 _ -0.2 _ +0.3 Roger Smith ______________________ -1.5 __ -1.7 __-1.7 ___ -1.3 _ -2.0 _ -1.5 ___ +0.9 _ +1.2 _ +2.0 ___ Persistence __ (Jan 2024) _____+2.3 _ +3.3 _ +3.2 __ +1.1 _ -0.5 _ -3.0 __ -3.5 _ -1.0 _ -1.0 (differential of persistence and consensus is 370 points) ________________________________ warmest and coldest forecasts color coded, Normal is colder than all forecasts for DEN Consensus of 14 forecasts is average of 7th and 8th ranked (not incl Normal).

Temperature anomalies in western regions are a bit misleading, we've seen one super cold spell of about a week and otherwise mostly well above normal. DEN for example averaged +13.5 for last four days but -27 for Jan 11-16. A lot of daily records have been broken in the past week. So we've come to the end of the month with ground conditions (soggy snow at ski resorts) similar to 1998 despite a different anomaly. Now in the past few winters we have seen a few cases of cold anomalies persistent all month. Feb 2019 was a very cold month all along, and winter 2022-23 was generally quite cold.

It was an oddball situation out west, a plurality of days above average but overall averages below, due to exceptional cold for a few days. DEN averaged +13.5 last four days, but was -27 for Jan 11-16.

RJay if you wander in, your inbox is full, you can probably guess my message anyway. TIA.

Scoring for January 2024 FORECASTER ___________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent _ c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west___ TOTAL RodneyS ________________ 50 _ 54 _ 68 __ 172 __ 96 _ 76 _ 50 __ 222 _ 394 __ 92 _100 _ 88 __ 280 ____ 674 so_whats_happening ____82 _ 66 _ 70 __ 218 __ 52 _ 94 _ 60 __ 206 _ 424 __ 54 _ 84 _ 96 __ 234 _____ 658 wxdude64 _______________46 _ 38 _ 52 __ 136 __100_ 96 _ 62 __258 _ 394 __ 56 _ 82 _ 76 __ 214 _____ 608 wxallannj ________________78 _ 62 _ 70 __ 210 ___68 _ 86 _ 16 __ 170 __ 380 __ 60 _ 76 _ 90 __ 226 _____ 606 DonSutherland1 _________76 _ 62 _ 68 __ 206 __ 78 _ 92 _ 44 __ 214 _ 420 __ 36 _ 88 _ 56 __ 180 _____ 600 ___ Consensus __________78 _ 60 _ 68 __ 206 __100_ 94 _ 20 __214 _ 420 __ 22 _ 82 _ 72 __ 176 _____ 596 BKViking ________________ 94 _ 76 _ 84 __ 254 __ 78 _ 74 _ 14 __ 166 _ 420 ___10 _ 60 _ 56 __ 126 _____ 546 hudsonvalley21 _________ 84 _ 58 _ 64 __ 206 __ 86 _ 78 _ 18 __ 182 _ 388 __ 04 _ 40 _ 96 __ 140 _____ 528 Normal __________________ 54 _ 34 _ 36 __ 124 __ 78 _ 90 _ 40 __ 208 _ 332 __ 30 _ 80 _ 80 __ 190 _____ 522 Rhino16 __________________50 _ 22 _ 20 __ 092 __98 _ 98 _ 40 __ 236 _ 328 __ 44 _ 92 _ 56 __ 192 _____ 520 Stormchaser Chuck _____ 56 _ 82 _ 96 __ 234 __ 82 _ 00 _ 00 __ 082 _ 316 __20 _100 _ 80 __ 200 ____ 516 RJay _____________________84 _ 64 _ 66 __ 214 __ 72 _ 70 _ 00 __ 142 _ 356 __ 20 _ 70 _ 60 __ 150 _____ 506 rainsucks ________________92 _ 96 _100__ 288 __42 _ 60 _ 00 __ 102 _ 390 __ 00 _ 50 _ 58 __ 108 _____ 498 Scotty Lightning _________64 _ 24 _ 16 __ 104 __ 58 _ 70 _ 20 __ 148 _ 252 __ 20 _ 60 _ 90 __ 170 _____ 422 Tom _____________________ 38 _ 12 _ 14 __ 064 __ 34 _ 72 _ 38 __ 144 _ 208 __ 26 _ 78 _ 68 __ 172 _____ 380 Roger Smith _____________44 _ 24 _ 32 __ 100 __ 98 _ 90 _ 22 __ 210 _ 310 __ 00 _ 04 _ 00 __ 004 _____ 314 Persistence _____________ 66 _ 56 _ 62 __ 184 __ 00 _ 38 _ 02 __ 040 _ 224 __ 00 _ 00 _ 10 __ 010 _____ 234 ----------------------------------- EXTREmE FORECAST REPORT NYC, BOS __ wins for Rainsucks (2nd highest fcsts) and losses for Stormchaser Chuck (good scores but fcsts a bit too high). IAH __ a win for wxdude64 with coldest forecast DEN __ a win for RodneyS with coldest forecast The other locations did not qualify. DCA went to 3rd highest forecast, and rest were quite close to consensus. --------------------------- (forecasts) FORECASTER ___________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Stormchaser Chuck _____ +4.5 _ +4.2 _+3.4 __ +2.0 _+4.8 _+4.4 __+0.5 _-1.0 _-2.0 rainsucks ________________+2.7 _ +3.1 _ +3.2 __ +4.0 _ +1.5 _+2.0 __+2.5 _+1.5 _+1.1 BKViking ________________ +2.0 _ +2.1 _ +2.4 __ +2.2 _ +0.8 _+1.3 __+1.0 _+1.0 _+1.2 RJay _____________________+1.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 __ +2.5 _ +1.0 _ +2.0 __+0.5 _+0.5_+1.0 hudsonvalley21 _________ +1.5 _ +1.2 _ +1.4 ___+0.4 _ +0.6 _ +1.1 __+1.3 _+2.0 _-0.8 so_whats_happening ____ +1.4 _ +1.6 _ +1.7 __ -1.3 _ -0.8 _ -1.0 __ -1.2 _ -1.8 _ -1.2 wxallannj ________________ +1.2 _ +1.4 _ +1.7 __ -0.5 _ -1.2 _ +1.2 __ -1.5 _ -2.2 _ -1.5 ___ Consensus __________+1.2 _ +1.3 _ +1.6 __ +1.1 _ -0.2 _ +1.0 __ +0.4 _-0.1 _+0.4 DonSutherland1 _________ +1.1 __+1.4 _ +1.6 __ +2.2 _ -0.1 _ -0.2 __ -0.3 _ -0.4 _+1.2 Scotty Lightning _________ +0.5 _-0.5 _ -1.0 __ -1.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 __ +0.5 _ +1.0 _-0.5 Normal ___________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 RodneyS ________________ -0.2 _ +1.0 _ +1.6 __ +1.3 _ -1.7 _ -0.5 ___ -3.1 _ -1.0 _ -1.6 Rhino16 __________________ -0.2 _ -0.6 _ -0.8 __ +1.0 _ -0.4 _ 0.0 ___ -0.7 _ -0.6 _ +1.2 wxdude64 _______________ -0.4 _ +0.2 _ +0.8 __ +1.1 _ -0.7 _ -1.1 ___ -1.3 _ -1.9 _ +0.2 Roger Smith _____________ -0.5 _ -0.5 _ -0.2 __ +1.0 _ -1.0 _ +0.9 __ +3.5 _ +3.8 _ +4.5 Tom _____________________ -0.8 _ -1.1 __ -1.1 ___ -2.2 _ -1.9 _ +0.1 ___ +0.2 _ +0.1 _ +0.6 Persistence _____________ +4.0 _ +5.5 _ +5.1 ___ +8.6 _+2.6 _+1.9 __ +6.2 _+4.7 _+3.5

-1.5 _ -1.7 _ -1.7 __ -1.3 _ -2.0 _ -1.5 __ +0.9 _ +1.2 _ +2.0

Faint signs of a coastal returning to guidance for Feb 5-6, would not declare it dead yet. A good result still lies inside margin of error.

A KU is a kinda unlikely.