Roger Smith

Maybe if they would truck some of it in, it would help?

Thanks everyone, I will get a table of forecasts up as soon as possible ... ... meanwhile, this is the final report on the SEASONAL MAX contest. Winner is RJay, congrats. Final scoring for Seasonal Max contest 2025 TABLE of ERRORS _ _ _ _ errors in italics are forecasts lower than eventual result which is above the table (actual) _________________ 99 __ 99 _102 ___ 95 _100 _101 ___100 _118 _ 94 FORECASTER ___________DCA_NYC_BOS _ ORD_ATL_IAH _ DEN_PHX_SEA ___ TOTAL RJay _____________________01 _ 02 _ 03 ____ 03 _ 00 _ 04 ___ 02 _ 01 _ 01 _____ 17 DonSutherland1 _________ 01 _ 01 _ 05 ____ 03 _ 02 _ 03 ___ 02 _ 01 _ 01 ______ 19 wxallannj ________________ 01 _ 03 _ 07 ____ 00 _ 02 _ 00 ___ 04 _ 01 _ 01 _____ 19 wxdude64 _______________01 _ 00 _ 04 ____ 04 _ 01 _ 05 ___ 04 _ 00 _ 02 _____ 21 ___ Consensus __________02 _ 01 _ 04 ____05 _ 01 _ 04 ___ 02 _ 01 _ 01 _____ 21 hudsonvalley21 __________02 _ 01 _ 05 ____ 05 _ 01 _ 00 ___ 00 _ 05 _ 03 _____ 22 Tom _____________________02 _ 00 _ 04 ____ 07 _ 03 _ 04 ___ 01 _ 00 _ 02 _____ 23 so_whats_happening ____02 _ 02 _ 05 ____ 05 _ 01 _ 04 ___ 04 _ 00 _ 01 _____ 24 Scotty Lightning ________ 04 _ 01 _ 04 ____ 06 _ 03 _ 05 ___ 00 _ 03 _ 02 _____ 28 Roger Smith _____________03 _ 01 _ 02 ____ 06 _ 02 _ 06 ____07 _ 02 _ 05 _____ 34 _____________________________________ (actual forecasts) FORECASTER ___________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH __ DEN _PHX _SEA Scotty Lightning ________ 103 _ 100 __ 98 ____ 101 _ 103 _ 106 ___ 100 _ 121 __ 92 Roger Smith _____________ 102 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 101 _ 102 _ 107 ____107 _ 120 __ 99 Tom _____________________ 101 __ 99 __ 98 ___ 102 _ 103 _ 105 ___ 101 _ 118 __ 96 hudsonvalley21 _________ 101 __ 98 __ 97 ____ 100 _ 101 _ 101 ____ 100 _ 123 __ 97 so_whats_happening ____ 101 __ 97 __ 97 ____ 100 __ 99 _ 105 ___104 _ 118 __ 93 ___ Consensus __________101 __ 98 __ 98 ____ 100 _ 101 _ 105 ___ 102 _ 119 __ 95 wxdude64 ______________ 100 __ 99 __ 98 _____99 _ 101 _ 106 ___ 104 _ 118 __ 96 DonSutherland1 _________ 100 __ 98 __ 97 ____ 98 __ 98 _ 104 ___ 102 _ 117 __ 95 RJay _____________________100 __ 97 __ 99 _____ 98 _ 100 _ 105 ___ 102 _ 119 __ 95 wxallannj _________________98 __ 96 __ 95 _____ 95 __ 98 _ 101 ___ 104 _ 119 __ 93

LB, I think that TS4 was about a 60 mph storm when it made landfall. The rainfall you asked about (8.28") is the daily record for September (second place being 7.13" Sep 1, 2021) and is also the all-time daily record for any month, but the all-time monthly record at Central Park (despite what it said in the source) is August 2011 with 18.95" -- Oct 2005 had 16.73" April 1983 14.01" and Oct 1903 had 13.31" ... these are the largest daily totals ... 1. Sep 23, 1882 ____ 8.28" 2. Apr 15, 2007 ____ 7.57" 3. Nov 8, 1977 _____ 7.40" 4, Oct 9, 1903 _____ 7.33" 5. Sep 1, 2021 _____ 7.13 6. Aug 14, 2011 ___ 5.81" 7. Nov 8, 1972 _____ 5.60" 8. Sep 21, 1966 ___ 5.54" 9. Sep 29, 2023 __ 5.48" 10. Sep 16, 1999 __ 5.02" 10. Oct 1, 1913 ____ 4.98" 11. Apr 30, 2014 ___4.97" 12. Sep 8, 1934 ___ 4.86" 13t Aug 20, 1873 __ 4.80" 13t Aug 16, 1909 ___4.80" 15. Aug 10, 1990 ___4.64" 16. Aug 21, 2021 ___4.45" 17. Oct 19, 1996 ____4.35" 18. Apr 10, 1983 ___ 4.31" 19t Sep 19, 1894 ___ 4.30" 19t Oct 8, 1903 ____ 4.30" 21. June 26, 1884 __4.29" 22t Oct 8, 2005 ____ 4.26" 22t Oct 12, 2005 ___ 4.26" 24. Mar 25, 1876 ___4.25" 25. Aug 21, 1888 ___4.19" 26t June 7, 2013 ___4.16" 26t Aug 27, 1971 ___ 4.16" 26t Sep 15, 1933 ___ 4.16" 29. Aug 9, 1942 ___ 4.10" 30. Oct 7, 1972 _____ 4.09" 31. Sep 21, 1938 ___ 4.05" This includes all 4"daily amounts, May's record daily in 32nd place was 3.99" on 29th, 1968. Sep 13-14 1944 (3.94 + 3.82) both came close to making the list also.

Nobody's all that late yet, will give a shout to RJay and BK, welcome to Ephesians2 also. September scoring is updated and is in last post on page six (as I see it anyway). -- before the October forecasts, also the annual scoring is being updated, I've fallen a bit behind due to a poorly planned day of car work and no internet ... so getting back to it now, as you look in there you'll see some scores updated, some yet to come, all totals are already updated and order changed a little but not a lot.

Just like me, they long to be, close to you. It's a nightmare for European forecasters who are waiting to see what ejects from dying Humberto, model consensus is not that good but something intense could come out and head for Ireland and Scotland Friday-Saturday. Or it could all fizzle out.

In Sept 1882 as indicated the massive rainfalls 22nd-23rd were in advance of landfalling TS4, and the 2.57" on the 11th plus 0.66" on 12th was due to passage of Hurricane Two (by then only a TS) across the Delmarva Peninsula after a landfall near Mobile (Navarre FL) on the night of 10th-11th. Between those, TS3 of 1882 was a weaker event that moved into TX around the 16th.

My standard reminder to NYC participants in forecast contest, tick tock ... deadline is tonight (more or less).

The 88 _ 90 _ 94 of Oct 4 to 6 1941 was the latest not quite a heatwave by official definitions, and mid-October 1954 had three in a row over 84 F. The wet September is a typo, it was actually 1882. And what caused it was mainly a slow-moving tropical storm (TS 4 of 1892) moving up the east coast 22nd to 24th. About three quarters of the month's massive total occurred in that time frame. The TS crossed Long Island with a landfall at Mastic Beach.

3.5 _ 4.0 _ 4.3 _ 5.2 _ 3.5 _ 3.5 _ 2.0 _ 2.0 _ 1.2

The pattern going forward looks very similar to October 1963 which was remarkably warm, dry and sunny for almost the entire month. Another similar feature was a long-lived meandering hurricane off the southeast coast. I recall the month from a location near Toronto where we had absolutely no rain from the 1st to 30th and only avoided a total drought when it rained on the 31st. November 1963 was then very mild and unsettled, December was quite cold and snowy.

Bet you would take 1947-48 as well.

Not quite 2017 but this will be a top five September for increase in mean temperature from 1st half to 2nd half ... I know we had some posts about this back before the increase began, and seems to me only two or three increased more than this one will. The odd thing is, 2017 was among the warmest Octobers, but so was 1947 which followed the exact opposite sequence of largest decrease from Sep 1-15 to Sep 16-30. 1891 was another September with a large increase from first half to second half. I don't think 2025 can catch it for second place but it may finish third (for increase, not for average).

Once again revised scoring table to account for (a) Humberto now a major hurricane, and (b) Imelda very likely to form and reach at least tropical storm status. As no forecasters have fewer than 4 hurricanes forecast, for Imelda to reach hurricane status will improve scores by 1 if you predicted 4 hurricanes, by 2 if you predicted five, by 3 if you predicted six, etc. (errors reduced from -1 to 0; -3 to -1; -6 to -3; -10 to -6, etc). I have added a potential score for that possible outcome, in brackets, after the indicated score. UPDATE edit Sep 30 06z ... Imelda about to become a hurricane apparently so I have edited the scoring table to reflect that likely outcome and to edit the H components of error and score deduction. Onwards and ever upwards.

=== ::: [] <<<<<<< Annual Scoring for Jan-Sep 2025 >>>>>>> [] ::: === FORECASTER _____DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH _ cent _ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA__west __TOTALS ___ Consensus ______589 _626 _650_ 1865__544 _622 _644_1810 _3675__623_664_742_2029 __5714 Tom __________________ 605 _630 _676 __1911 __550 _552 _658__1760 _3671 __686 _658 _684__2028___5699 hudsonvalley21 ______ 555 _622 _674 __1851 __494 _582 _647 __1723 __3574 __640 _634 _738__2012__5586 so_whats_happening __623 _662 _628 __1913 __550 _626 _575__1751__3664 __606 _582 _726__1914___5578 Scotty Lightning ______598 _ 656 _618 __ 1872__487 _526 _664__1677 _3549 __597 _702 _698__1997___5546 RJay _________________ 540 _641 _659 __ 1840 __588 _648 _638__1874 _3714 __529 _551 _631 __ 1711___5425 DonSutherland1 ______ 529 _578 _624 __1731 __560 _596 _582__ 1738 _3469 __645 _616 _690__1951___5420 wxallannj _____________ 515 _554 _592 __1661 __514 _554 _618__ 1686 _ 3347 __634 _654 _679 __1967___5314 RodneyS _____________ 552 _560 _628 __1740 __394 _472 _576__1442 _3182 __561 _592 _822 __1975___ 5157 wxdude64 ____________496 _542 _560 __1598 __430_ 542 _580__1552 _3150__ 653 _646 _684__1983__ 5133 Roger Smith __________498 _584 _594 __1676 __562 _570 _588__1720 _3396 __448 _604 _673__ 1725___5121 StormchaserChuck ___559 _582 _600 __1741 __414 _614 _ 521__1549 _ 3290 __ 605 _612 _597 __ 1814___5104 ___ Normal ____________528 _576 _586 __1690 __458 _386 _405__1249__2939__648 _546 _666__1860__4799 BKViking (7/9) _______ 366 _403 _439 __1208 __378 _486 _424__1288 _2496 __476 _480 _497__1453__3949 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - prorated total __5078 Yoda _(2/9) ____________094 _110 _110 __ 314 __ 124 _ 110 _ 188 __ 422 ___ 736 __168 _148 _168 ___ 484 ___1220 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- prorated total __5490 maxim (2/9) __________ 180 _ 152 _164 __ 496 ___ 96_ 120 _ 082 __298__ 794 __92 _ 90 _ 135__ 317 ____ 1111 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - prorated total __5000 Persistence ___________320 _430 _560 __1310 ___286 _344 _566 _1196 _2506__470 _462 _636 __1568 ___4074 ____________________________ ________________________________ __ Best scores __ (updated for Sep) ^ incl tied for best score * incl 3 - 5 tied for best score ____________________ DCA_NYC_BOS_east_ORD_ATL_IAH_cent__c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west__TOTALS ___ Consensus ______2*__0 __ 0 ___0 ___0 __0 __ 1 __0 __0 ___1 ___1 ___1 ___0 ___0 Tom ___________________2 *__ 1^ _ 2 ___1 ___ 2 ___2^ __2^___1 ___1 ___ 0 __ 2 ___2^___2 ___2 __ Mar,Jun hudsonvalley21 ________ 1 *__ 2^__2 ___1 ___ 1 __ 1 __ 2^ ___0 __ 0 ___2^^__ 1 __ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 so_whats_happening __ 1 *__ 1 __ 0 ___0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___ 2^__ 1^ __ 1 ___2 ___ 0 Scotty Lightning _______ 3^*__1^__ 1^___0 ___ 0 __1^__ 3 ___ 0 __0 ___ 0 __ 3*___1 ___1 ____1 _Sep(t) RJay ___________________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___0 ___ 2^__1^__ 2^^__3 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 1*__ 1^___0 ___ 0 Don Sutherland 1 _______1 *__ 1^__ 1*__ 0 ___ 0 __1 ___0 ___ 0 __0 ___ 1 __ 1^ __ 0 ___0 ___ 0 wxallannj _______________1 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 1^ __ 1^__0 ___0 ____0 RodneyS _______________ 1 __ 1 __ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 __ 2^ __1^ __ 2 ___ 2 ___1 __ 1 ___ 4^___1 ____2 _ May,Aug wxdude64 ______________1 __ 2^__ 1*___2 ___ 0 __0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 2 ___0 __0___ 0 ____1 _ Jan Roger Smith ____________1^ __3^^__2^ __2 ___3 ___3^^__2^^__ 1 ___2 ___0 __ 1^__ 0 ___1 ____3 _ Feb,Jul,Sep(t) StormchaserChuck _____1 __ 1^__ 1 ____2 ___ 1^__ 1 ___1 ___ 0 ___1 ___ 0 ___0 __ 1^___ 1 ____0 _Apr BKViking _______________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___0 ___ 0 __ 1 ___0 ___ 2 __ 1 ____1 ___ 1*__0 ___0 ___0 ___ Normal ______________ 1 __ 2 ___0 ___0 ___ 1 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __0 ___ 2 __ 1 __ 1 ___ 0 ____0 maxim __________________ 1 __ 0 __ 1* ___0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __0 ___1 ___ 1 __ 0 ___1 ___ 0 ============================== (tie for Consensus or Normal is not a tie for forecaster(s)) Extreme forecasts _ updated for Sep So far, 46 of 81 ... 23 for warmest and 23 for coldest ... Jan 1-4, Feb 1-4, Mar 5-0, Apr 6-0, May 2-6, Jun 1-1, Jul 1-1, Aug 1-6 and Sep 5-1. Forecaster ____________ Jan _Feb _Mar _Apr _May _Jun_Jul _Aug __ Total___adj for ties (*2 tied, ^3 tied) Rodney S ______________ 2-1 _1*-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _3*0 _0-1_0-0 _4-0 _1-0 __11-2 ___10.0 - 2.0 Roger Smith ___________ 0-0 _3-1 _ 0-1 _ 1*0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _1*-0_1*-0_4^-0__12-2___8.0 - 2.0 ___ Normal _____________ 1-0 _0-1 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 __ 2-0 _0-1 _1-0 __2-0 _1-0 __ 7-2 ___ 7.0 - 2.0 Scotty Lightning _______ 1-0 _0-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0_0-0_ 0-1 _3^-0 __8-1 ____ 6.5 - 1.0 hudsonvalley21 _________1*-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _ 2-0 _ 1-1 _ 0-0_ 0-0 _0-0 _0-0 __4-1 ___3.5 - 0.0 Stormchaser Chuck ____ 0-0 _0-0 _0-1 _ 4*-2 _0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _0-0 __4-3 ___ 3.5 - 3.0 maxim __________________1^-0_0-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 __3-0 ___ 2.33-0.0 Tom ____________________0-0 _0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 2*0 _ 0-0_0-0 _0-0_1*-0 __ 4-0 ___ 3.0 - 0.0 wxdude64 ______________1^-0_ 0-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0_0-0 __1-0 _0-1 __ 3-1 ____2.33-1.0 RJay ____________________0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _2**-0_0-0 _ 0-0_1 *-0_0-0_1*-0 _ 4-0 ___ 2.0-0.0 so_whats_happening ___ 1*-0 _1*-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 __0-0_1-0 __0-0 _0-0__3-0 ___ 2.0 - 0.0 Don Sutherland _________1^-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0_0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 __2-0 ____1.33-0.0 BKViking _______________ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _0-0 __1-0 ____1.0 - 0.0 wxallannj _______________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _1*-0_0-0__1-0 ___ 0.5 - 0.0 ^ (note: For Sep wins, Roger Smith and Scotty Lightning tied three, not shown by * symbols but calculated into adjusted scores) =========================================================

Humberto brings the count to 8/2/2 and the forecast gives me enough confidence to score from 8/3/2. Apparently there is some potential to go to 8/3/3 eventually and if so the scoring will be adjusted. It will improve all scores except two already at zero error for two majors; those two scores would drop by 1.0. Scores with errors of 1 for major hurricanes will improve by 1; scores with errors of 2 will improve by 2 (from 3 to 1 error deductions); scores with errors of 3 will improve by 3, etc.

Well unexpectedly Gabrielle did intensify all the way to major (cat 4) so I have modified the table of storms required. Will probably be modifying it again soon to get the 8th named storm into the table.

The snow depth mystery is basically explained by fact that snow depth is measured early in the day before most of the snow falls, so it increases the day after the snowfall report in most cases.

Your current implied forecasts for rest of season are shown in previous post -- where it is assumed Gabrielle will become a non-major hurricane at some future point. We are past the halfway point of climatology for seasonal totals, although a few seasons can be found where this was before the halfway point (not many). Some of us are going to need a finish like 1887 to get anywhere near our forecasts. I would have to say the two forecasts scored in the table (Hotair, retrobuc) are looking like the favorites at this point.

Final scoring for September 2025 Based on posted anomalies in previous post. FORECASTER __________ DCA_NYC_BOS _east _ORD_ATL_IAH _cent _c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA_west_TOTAL Scotty Lightning ________66 _ 92_ 98 _256 _60 _80_ 94 _234_ 490 _ 78 _ 90 _80 _248 __738 Roger Smith ____________ 76 _ 92_98_ 266 _70_80_ 94 _244 _ 510 _ 58 _80_ 90 _228 __738 hudsonvalley21 _________90 _ 68 _ 76 _234 _28 _60 _ 80 _168 _402 _88_100_100 _288__690 yoda ____________________90 _ 66 _ 70 _226 _48 _68 _ 96 _212_ 438 _ 72 _92 _76 _ 240__ 678 ___ Consensus _________100_ 66 _ 76 _242 _28 _50 _ 94 _172 _414 _ 78 _92 _92 _262__676 RJay ____________________94 _ 74 _ 84 _252 _50 _50 _ 98 _198_ 450 _ 58 _80 _86 _224__ 674 ___ Normal _____________ 96 _ 72 _82 _250 _ 40 _50 _ 76 _ 166_ 416 _98 _80_70 _248__ 664 so_whats_happening ____98 _ 72 _ 86 _256 _46 _40 _66 _152 _ 408 _ 74 _92 _96 _262__ 670 wxallannj _______________100 _ 64 _ 76 _240 _24 _54 _ 86_ 164_ 404_ 88 _ 90 _80 _258__662 DonSutherland1 _________92 _ 70 _ 82 _244 _48 _56 _ 92 _196_ 440 _ 62 _86 _66 _214__ 654 Tom _____________________86 _ 48 _ 60 _194 _ 10 _34 _ 98_ 142 _336 _68 _92 _94 _254 __590 RodneyS ________________ 58 _ 54 _ 66 _178 _00 _04 _ 94 _098 _276 _92 _90 _94 _276 __552 wxdude64 ______________ 54 _ 40 _ 60 _154 _00 _34 _ 86 _120 _ 274 _ 90 _94 _92 _276 __550 StormchaserChuck1 _____52 _ 32 _ 50 _134 _00 _34 _ 74 _108 _242 _ 88 _88 _70 _248 __490 BKViking ________________ 66 _ 30 _ 46 _142 _00 _40 _ 68 _108 _250 _78 _84 _78 _240 __490 ============ ___ Persistence __________32 _ 26 _ 40 _098 _30 _10 _ 90 _130 _228 _ 80 _44 _98 _222 __450 ________________________ EXTREME FORECASTS NYC, BOS, ORD, ATL wins for Roger Smith and (except ORD) Scotty Lightning, with high forecasts. IAH (+1.2) is a win for RJay and Tom (+1.1) and a loss for tied highest forecasts Roger Smith and Scotty Lightning (+1.5). DEN (-0.1) is a win for RodneyS (+0.3) and Normal, and loss for wxdude64 (-0.6) and would have been a win for wxdude64 at any outcome below -0.1. ==================== (actual forecasts) FORECASTER _______________ DCA _NYC _BOS _ORD _ATL _IAH __DEN _PHX _SEA Scotty Lightning _____________ +1.5 _+1.0 _+1.0 _ +1.0 _+1.5 _+1.5 __+1.0 _+1.5 _+0.5 Roger Smith _________________ +1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 _ +1.5 _+1.5 _+1.5 __+2.0 _+2.0 _+2.0 hudsonvalley21 ______________ +0.3 _-0.2 _-0.3 _-0.6 _+0.5 _+0.2 __+0.5 _+1.0 _+1.5 yoda _________________________ +0.3 _-0.3 _-0.6 _+0.4_+0.9 _+1.0 __+1.3 _+1.4 _+2.7 DonSutherland1 ______________+0.2 _ -0.1 _ 0.0 _ +0.4 _+0.3 _+0.8__+1.8 _+1.7 _+3.2 RJay _________________________+0.1 _ +0.1 _ +0.1 _ +0.5 _ 0.0 _ +1.1 __+2.0 _+2.0 _+2.2 ___ Normal ____________________0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ___0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ___ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 wxallannj ____________________ -0.2 _-0.4 _-0.3 _-0.8 _+0.2 _+0.5 __+1.0 _+1.5 _+2.5 ___ Consensus ______________-0.2_-0.3 _-0.3 _-0.6 _ 0.0 _ +0.9 __+1.0_+1.4_+1.9 so_whats_happening ________-0.3 __0.0 _ +0.2 _+0.3 _-0.5 _ -0.5 __+1.2 _+1.4 _+1.3 Tom _________________________ -0.9 _-1.2 _ -1.1 __ -1.5 _ -0.8 _ +1.1 __ +1.5 _+0.6 _+1.8 BKViking _____________________-1.9 _ -2.1 _ -1.8 _ -2.3 _-0.5 _-0.4 __+1.0 _+1.8 _ +0.4 RodneyS _____________________-2.3 _ -0.9 _-0.8 _ -2.2 _-2.3 _+0.9 __+0.3 _+0.5 _+1.8 wxdude64 ___________________-2.5 _ -1.6 _ -0.9 _ -2.6 _-0.8 _ +0.5 __-0.6 _+0.7 _+1.9 StormchaserChuck1 _________ -2.6 _ -2.0 _-1.6 _ -3.5 _-0.8 _ -0.1 __ +0.5 _+0.4 _+3.0 ============ ___ Persistence _______________ -3.6 _-2.3 _-2.1 __-0.5 _-2.0 _+1.7 __+0.9 _+3.8 _+1.4 ________________________

Anomalies and projections ... __________________________ DCA _NYC _BOS _ ORD _ATL _IAH __ DEN _PHX _SEA (15th) ___ (anom 1-15) ___-3.1 __-2.0 _ -2.0 __ -3.2 _-0.7 _-0.3 __ -0.3 _ +0.8 _ +1.0 (25th) ___ (anom 1-24)___-1.7 __-0.4 _ -1.3 __ +1.0 _+1.7 _+1.1 __ -1.2 _ +1.5 _ +1.7 (15th) __ (p anom 1-30) _ -1.5 _ -0.5 _ -0.5 __ -1.5 __ 0.0 _+0.5 __ +0.5 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 (25th) __ (p anom 1-30) _ -1.0 __ 0.0 _ -0.5 __ +1.5 _ +2.0 _+1.5 __ 0.0 _ +1.5 _ +2.0 ___ final anomalies ______ -0.2 _ +1.4 _ +0.9 __+3.0 _+2.5 _+1.2 __-0.1 _ +1.0 _+1.5 (seasonal max contest is finished now, report on it back in thread will be confirmed and re-posted at end of Sep) (final scoring report follows, annual summary in next post)

Here's a detailed study of cases where second half of September was warmer than first half at NYC (or to complete top 25, a few cases of least cooling). For all data, the September 1-15 mean is 70.7, the September 16-30 mean is 65.4 and the decrease is 5.3 (F deg) For 1991-2020, the corresponding values are 71.7 _____ 66.5 _____ and 5.2 F deg. The top twenty-five Septembers in terms of anomalous temperature averages from first to second half, favoring second half warmth, are as follows. Rank ____ Year ____ 1-15 ___ 16-30 ___ diff ____ rank of 2nd half _01 _____ 2017 ____ 67.7 ___ 73.3 ____ +5.6 _______2 _02 _____ 1891 ____ 70.1 ____74.1 ____ +4.0 _______ 1 _03 _____ 1946 ____ 68.7 ___70.9____ +2.2 ______ 10 _04 _____ 1895 ____ 71.1 ____72.2 ____ +1.1 _______ 4 _05 _____ 1970 ____ 70.3 ___ 71.3 ____ +0.9 *_____ 7t _06 _____ 1968 ____70.1 ___ 71.0 ____ +0.9 _______ 9 _07 _____ 1917 ____ 63.2 ___ 63.9 ____ +0.6 * _08 _____ 1870 ____ 67.9 ___ 68.4 ____ +0.5 _09 _____ 1914 ____ 66.5 ___ 66.8 _____ +0.3 _10 ______1892 ____ 64.0 ___ 64.1 _____ +0.2 * _11 ______2006 ____66.5 ___ 66.6 ____ +0.1 _12 _____ 1986 ____ 67.9 ___ 67.8 ____ - 0.1 _13 ______1926 ____ 65.9 ___ 65.5 ____ - 0.4 _14 _____ 1883 ____ 62.0 ___ 61.5 ____ - 0.5 _15 _____ 2019 ____ 70.7 ___ 70.1 ____ - 0.6 _______ 11 _16 _____ 1902 ____ 66.9 ___ 66.0 ____ - 0.9 _17t_____ 1908 ____ 69.4 ___ 68.4 ____ - 1.0 _17t_____ 1911 _____ 68.2 ___ 67.2 ____ - 1.0 _17t_____ 1933 ____ 70.0 ___ 69.0 ____ - 1.0 _20 _____ 1920 ____ 69.0 ___ 67.9 ____ - 1.1 _21t_____ 1881 _____ 73.9 ___ 72.7 ____ - 1.2 _______ 3 _21t_____ 1905 _____ 70.4 ___ 69.2 ____ -1.2 _21t_____ 2003 _____68.5 ___ 67.3 ____ - 1.2 _24 _____ 1930 _____72.6 ___ 71.3 ____ -1.3 _______ 7t _25 _____ 1965 _____ 68.1 ___ 66.8 ____ -1.4 * (2024 was fairly close to making list at -1.6 from 69.6 to 68.0) ____________ * Second decimals in data cause rounding result to be different from one-decimal differences in these cases === === Note that nine of the top eleven warmest second halves of September appear in this top 25. Exceptions were 2005 (75.2, 71.4 - rank t5th, drop 3.8) 2015 (77.5, 71.4 - rank t5th) dropped 6.2F. Also t12th place 1921 (69.7) dropped 4.8 from 74.5 F while t12th 2010 (also 69.7) dropped 2.8 from 72.5; 14th place (69.4) 1959 dropped 5.8 from 75.2. 15th place 1905 (69.2) is in the list above, 16th place 1906 (69.1) is not in list (dropped 2.4 from 71.5) and tied 17th for warmest second half is 69.0, one is in the list above (1933) and the other is 1998 which dropped 2.5 from 71.5. 19th warmest second half is 68.8 in 1985 and t20th is 68.7 in 2002 and 2021. These three all had moderate falls from warmer first halves. 1884 (68.6) and 1898 (68.5) were next in line and both fell over 4F to reach those still-very warm values. Tied 25th at 68.4 were 1870 and 1908 (in list), 2007 and 2016. There is a noticeable tendency for these warm second-half cases (whether in list or not) to be followed by several weeks of very warm weather in October, which is probably not surprising given the persistence of pattern often seen in early to mid autumn. Yet also the most conspicuous counter-example (see top ten counter-examples list below text) 1947 also was followed by a very warm October as were 1897, 1900 and 1961 in that list. 1875 stayed very cold, 1929 was generally cold in October also. A few years made this list by having a very chilly first half and a near or closer to average second half (1917, 1883 in particular) There are quite a few solid winters that followed years in this list (1917-18 and 1933-34 in particular, also 2017-18, 1892-93, 1870-71, 1968-69, 1911-12). Remains to be seen where 2025 will stack up against this top 25. The first half mean is 69.9F. An average of 69.2 by end of month will likely place 2025 in the above list. An average of 49 would be needed to get into the list below so that's not going to happen. ========== (top ten counter-examples, falling averages in Sep) _01 __ 1947 ___ 77.3 _ 59.9 __ -17.4 F _02 __ 2023 ___76.0 _62.8 __ -13.2 F _03 __ 1875 ___ 70.4 _ 57.4 __ -13.0 F _04 __ 1993 ___ 73.5 _ 61.0 __ -12.5 F _05 __ 1929 ___ 75.5 _ 63.2 __ -12.3 F _06t__ 1961 ___ 79.1 _ 67.8 __ -11.4 F * _06t__ 1996 ___ 73.7 _ 62.3 __ -11.4 F _08t__ 1897 ___ 72.6 _ 61.5 __ -11.1 F _08t__ 1915 ___ 75.5 _ 64.4 __ -11.1 F _10t__ 1900 ___ 76.3 _ 65.5 __ -10.8 F _10t__ 1983 ___ 77.2 _ 66.3 __ -10.8 F * _10t__ 1990 ___ 72.9 _ 62.1 __ -10.8 F _______ * Second decimals in data cause rounding result to be different from one-decimal differences in these cases Most of the top ten twenty first halves (above 74F) are in the above list; 2015 (77.5) and 2005 (75.1) are discussed in slight-fall cases, and other contenders with average drops are 1884 (74.9) 1898 (76.3) 1931 (76.5) 1944 (74.1) 1945 (74.7) 1971 (75.8) 1979 (74.6) 1980 (75.7) and 2016 (75.2). 1953 and 1973 with strong heat waves at start of September had first half averages close to 74F. They cooled off fairly quickly. The coldest second half of September by the way was 56.4 in 1871. The lowest value since 1980 is 61.0 (1993) followed by 61.3 in 2000.

Potential is one thing but reality seems to be global blanding at least in the mid-latitudes. I can't remember as much boring weather as we've seen in the past five years. To my way of thinking, adding extra cloud, moisture and heat to all air masses is a recipe for less rather than more cyclogenesis. Everywhere is becoming Vladivostok.

Some details about evolution of the Great Atlantic Hurricane weather pattern. Aug 1944 had been very hot in the east, and this continued into early September. In fact NYC set a record 97F on Sep 2nd that was later erased by the 102F in 1953. It was 94F on the 3rd and 90F on the 5th. No measurable rain fell from Aug 23 to Sep 11 (a 20 day dry spell) ... Cooler air masses arrived thereafter and were in place when the G.A.H. ran up the east coast. A very warm day followed the passage of the core offshore, in strong southwest to west winds on Sep 15th as shown below ... NYC obs Sep 12 to 18 1944 Date ___ Max _ Min __ rain 09 12 ___ 72 __ 63 ___ 1.64 09 13 ___ 74 __ 66 ___ 3.94 09 14 ___ 78 __ 65 ___ 3.82 09 15 ___ 86 __ 70 ___ Tr 09 16 ___ 84 __ 66 ___ 0.00 09 17 ___ 80 __ 63 ___ 0.00 09 18 ___ 73 __ 63 ___ 0.00 09 19 ___ 69 __ 64 ___ 0.09 Weather maps show the G.A.H. at these locations: Sep 13 1944 n.e Bahamas Sep 14 1944 near C Hatteras 12z to s.e. Long Island Sep 15 1944 across Cape Cod into Bay of Fundy (rapidly weakening to TS) Sep 16 1944 absorbed by northern low near e Nfld The 9.40" of rain that fell Sep 12-14 represented 90% of the month's rain (0.77" fell on 28th), and another 14 day dry spell followed Sep 29 to Oct 12 during which another record high was set (88F on Oct 7, 1944). And they say climate change is making the weather more intense. S-u-u-re.

Frederic went on to drop 4-6 inches of rain in upstate NY and east-central Ontario. I remember the month of Sep 1979 (in Ontario) as being almost bone dry apart from the one day of heavy rain and strong NE winds from then TS Frederic. Then Sep 1989 had a lot more action before Hugo followed a similar track through the Lake Ontario region and dropped similar amounts of rain (landfall in that case was of course SC).

We didn't know it at the time but the contest was basically over on June 25th. One later tie occurred on July 26th. I guess there is a faint chance of a higher value later but very faint indeed.