Roger Smith

Early climate report for NYC indicates 96 max ties daily record set in 1888 _ second highest value on 23rd was 94F in 1966. 80 min sets new record for date (77 1888) and is only second 80+ min in June (81 June 26, 1952). There have been a number of 79F mins including non-record June 26, 2003, and daily records for 10th 1984, 21st 2012; 24th 1909; and 30th, 1945, 1959.

Early climate report for NYC indicates 96 max ties daily record set in 1888 _ second highest value on 23rd was 94F in 1966. 80 min sets new record for date (77 1888) and is only second 80+ min in June (81 June 26, 1952). There have been a number of 79F mins including non-record June 26, 2003, and daily records for 10th 1984, 21st 2012; 24th 1909; and 30th, 1945, 1959.

Posted this on main June thread ... What I'm noticing about Monday and Tuesday is a very light wind field, almost NW to N as the surface flow begins to lose identity. Certainly a hot enough air mass to approach 100F in the NYC metro but will any weak sea breezes develop to keep readings in the low to mid 90s? I would bet on 102-105 in parts of NJ.

What I'm noticing about Monday and Tuesday is a very light wind field, almost NW to N as the surface flow begins to lose identity. Certainly a hot enough air mass to approach 100F in the NYC metro but will any weak sea breezes develop to keep readings in the low to mid 90s? I would bet on 102-105 in parts of NJ.

Final scoring for June 2025 based on the final anomalies in previous post. ... no child left behind in this scoring report! (very high in general) FORECASTER ______________ DCA_NYC_BOS_east_ORD_ATL_IAH_cent_c/e_DEN_PHX_SEA_west__TOTAL Tom ________________________ 76 _ 92 _ 98 __ 266 __ 50 _100 _ 84 _234 _ 500 __94 _98 _96 __288 __ 788 Scotty Lightning ____________ 92 _ 96 _ 78 __ 266 __ 38 _ 86 _ 96 _ 220 _ 486__ 94 _ 96_ 90__280 __ 766 ___ Consensus ______________76 _ 84 _ 90 __ 250 __ 54 _ 88 _ 86 _ 228 _ 478__98 _84 _100__ 282 __ 760 RJay ________________________ 62 _ 74 _ 82 __ 218 __ 78 _ 96 _ 94 _ 268 _ 486__ 96 _76 _100__272 __ 758 DonSutherland1 _____________80 _ 80 _ 86 __ 246 __ 80 _ 70 _ 82 _ 232 _ 478 __92 _82 _ 90 __264 __ 742 hudsonvalley21 _____________ 64 _ 76 _ 92 __ 232 __ 56 _ 90 _ 86 _232 _ 464 __98 _94 _ 84 __276 __ 740 wxallannj ___________________ 68 _ 78 _ 80 __ 226 __ 38 _ 92 _ 92 _ 222 _ 448 __98 _92_ 94 __284 __ 732 so_whats_happening _______ 78 _ 92 _ 90 __ 260 __ 56 _ 88 _ 86 _ 230 _ 490__ 74 _82 _ 78 __234 __ 724 wxdude64 __________________96 _100 _96 __ 292 __ 36 _ 82 _ 76 _ 194 _ 486 __ 76 _ 64 _ 98 __238 __ 724 Stormchaserchuck1 ________ 80 _ 88 _ 92 __ 260 __ 44 _ 78 _ 80 _ 202 _ 462 __ 66 _90 _100__256 __ 718 BKViking ___________________ 70 _ 80 _ 90 __ 240 __ 66 _ 72 _ 76 _ 214 _ 454 __ 80 _76 _ 82 __238 __ 692 Roger Smith ________________ 52 _ 64 _ 72 __ 188 __ 88 _ 74 _ 74 _ 236 _ 424 __ 86 _86 _ 90 __262 __ 686 RodneyS ____________________78 _ 98 _ 88 __ 264 __ 00 _ 52 _ 90 _ 142 _ 406 __ 86 _ 58 _ 98 __242 __ 648 Persistence (May 2025) ____ 84 _ 58 _ 84 __ 226 __ 00 _ 72 _ 70 _ 142 _ 368 __ 90 _ 84 _ 70 __244 __ 612 ___ Normal _________________88 _ 76 _ 68 __ 232 __ 28 _ 66 _ 66 _ 160 _ 392 __ 84 _ 56 _ 80 __220 __ 612 _________________ ==================== EXTREME FORECAST report NYC, BOS, ATL, IAH, DEN, PHX, SEA do not qualify as near consensus forecasts have high scores. DCA at +0.6 is a win for wxdude64 (+0.8) and a loss for coldest forecast RodneyS (-0.5) as well as a loss for Normal. ORD at +3.6 is a win for high forecast Roger Smith (+3.0) ATL at +2.0 would have been a win for wxallannj (+2.1) and a loss for Roger Smith (+3.0). However, it finished at +1.7 and was a win for third highest forecast (Tom). So it is not an extreme forecast after all. IAH at +1.8 to +2.4 would have been a win for RJay (+2.0) and a loss for Roger Smith (+3.0). However, it came in at +1.7, Scotty Lightning had the highest score (+1.5) and thus it is not an extreme forecast. This is one of the lowest number of extreme forecast validations in recent memory (2 of 9 and only one an outright win for most extreme forecast). Apparently in a treeless Central Park there likely would have been another extreme forecast validation (JFK was +2.6).

Well ... these two late forecasts are both on the hot side, I will at least mention in scoring where they would rank if they had been submitted on time. But official rankings will be confined to on-time entries.

Anomalies and projections ... _ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA _____ (anom 1-20) _____________ -0.9 _-0.9 _-0.2^ __+0.5 _+1.1 _+1.8 ___ +0.6 _+2.8 _+1.5 (21st) __ ( p anom 1-30 ) _______+2.0 _+2.0 _+2.5 __ +2.5 _+2.5 _+3.0 __ +2.0 _+3.0 _+1.0 (30th) __ ( anom 1-30 ) ________+0.6 _+1.2 _+1.6 __ +3.6 _+1.7 _+1.7 ___ +0.8 _+2.2 _+1.0 (these are now final and scoring will be adjusted) ... ... Seasonal max update (June 30, 2025) DCA 99 __ NYC 99 __ BOS 102 ___ ORD 95 __ ATL 96 __ IAH __ 98 ____ DEN __ 99 ____ PHX 117 ___ SEA __ 90

Very cool for late June in PAC NW, currently only 48-50 F at lower elevations of n Idaho and nw Montana, se BC, and snow is reported in mountain passes. A cold drenching rain here, not good for a weekend but great news for forest fire suppression. It is only 45F at my elevation (normal here is 80F).

Okay, so there were no last minute entries or edits, the table of forecasts remains as earlier posted (now two posts back) ... good luck ... by the way, Weather53, your win was two contests back, Jebman is the current (no show) defending champ. I seriously considered adding 2 to my forecasts but that usually backfires so I'll stick with the relatively moderate numbers I had. It would surprise me if this coming heat wave is the only serious attack on 100 all summer, only a small number of years have their seasonal max in June, off the top of my head I could say 1923, 1952, 1956, but more often a June record high is followed by some more later in the summer.

You may still enter the contest until 0200h EDT (06z June 20) ... I am posting this now to give last-minute entrants and current forecasters a quick overview of forecasts already made ... so far twenty-one have entered and all have managed to find a unique set of values.The consensus as median gives a slightly different outcome to means, so I may change the contest consensus to a mean value if it gives a better set of numbers. At 0200h or a few minutes later, I will edit out this table and post it after all on-time forecasts that may be placed below in the thread. If there are no further forecasts I will just edit this part instead. I may boost my own forecasts, it is looking very hot early next week under a near-600 dm upper high. If so, all other forecasts will drop one number in order of entry. __ Table of entries __ 2025 seasonal max __ FORECASTER _________________ DCA _IAD _BWI _RIC gopper (16) ____________________ 103 _ 102 _ 102 _ 102 batmanbrad (19) _______________ 103 _ 101 _ 102 _ 100 Roger Ramjet (20) _____________ 102 _ 101 _ 103 _ 103 tplbge (14) _____________________ 102 _ 100 _ 101 _ 101 DanTheMan (8) ________________ 101 _ 103 _ 104 _ 103 Roger Smith (1) _________________ 101 _ 101 _ 102 _ 100 GramaxRefugee (18) ____________100 _ 101 _ 102 _ 101 biodhokie (17) __________________ 100 _ 101 _ 101 _ 100 wxdude64 (13) _________________ 100 _ 100 _ 102 _ 100 George BM (2) _________________ 100 __ 99 _ 101 _ 101 ___ consensus _________________ 99 __ 99 _ 100 _ 100 MillvilleWx (7) ___________________ 99 __ 99 _ 100 _ 102 Rhino16 (5) ______________________ 99 __ 99 __ 99 _ 101 Jenkins Jinkies (9) ______________ 99 __ 99 __ 99 _ 100 NorthArlington101 (6) ____________99 __ 99 __ 99 __ 99 RickinBaltimore (10) _____________ 99 __ 98 __ 98 __ 99 WxUSAF (4) _____________________ 99 __ 97 _ 100 __ 99 toolsheds (12) ___________________ 99 __ 97 __ 99 _ 101 Weather53 (21) __________________ 98 __ 99 _ 100 __ 99 nw baltimore wx (3) _____________ 98 __ 98 __ 99 __ 99 Its A Breeze (11) _________________ 98 __ 98 __ 98 __ 99 Prince Frederick Wx (15) ________ 98 __ 97 __ 98 __ 98 ____________________________ Consensus is median of forecasts. The mean of forecasts is 99.9, 99.5, 100.4, 100.3 or 100 _ 100 _ 100 _ 100, Of 21 forecasts, nine have all locations at 100 or higher, five have no locations reaching 100F, seven have a blend. Ranges are 98-103, 97-103, 98-104, 98-103

1960: A heat burst struck Kopperl, TX, located about 50 miles southwest of Fort Worth from a dying thunderstorm. As the air sank, it warmed to around 140°. When the heat burst struck the ground, winds fanned out at over 75 mph. People had to wrap themselves in wet blankets to protect themselves from the heat. All crops were destroyed by the heat. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) If this had been recorded at a weather station it would have been the highest ever verified temperature not only in the U.S.A. but on earth. I wonder what evidence existed for saying it was 140 degrees?

Please note, I had originally chosen June 22-23 as deadline (23rd 06z) but in view of current model projections I have adjusted the deadline forward to June 20 at 06z, or end of the day Thursday of next week ... I don't believe this will have much impact on turnout which is trending towards the usual 20-30 entries already. And I wanted to avoid a situation where a record high on the day after deadline attracts a number of very small over-run of deadline entries, this way, I can have a table of entries ready before the heat arrives and a clear barrier to last minute nowcast type entries.

Table of forecasts for Seasonal Max 2025 FORECASTER ___________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH __ DEN _PHX _SEA Scotty Lightning ________ 103 _ 100 __ 98 ____ 101 _ 103 _ 106 ___ 100 _ 121 __ 92 Roger Smith _____________ 102 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 101 _ 102 _ 107 ____107 _ 120 __ 99 Tom _____________________ 101 __ 99 __ 98 ___ 102 _ 103 _ 105 ___ 101 _ 118 __ 96 hudsonvalley21 _________ 101 __ 98 __ 97 ____ 100 _ 101 _ 101 ____ 100 _ 123 __ 97 so_whats_happening ____ 101 __ 97 __ 97 ____ 100 __ 99 _ 105 ___104 _ 118 __ 93 ___ Consensus __________101 __ 98 __ 98 ____ 100 _ 101 _ 105 ___ 102 _ 119 __ 95 wxdude64 ______________ 100 __ 99 __ 98 _____99 _ 101 _ 106 ___ 104 _ 118 __ 96 DonSutherland1 _________ 100 __ 98 __ 97 ____ 98 __ 98 _ 104 ___ 102 _ 117 __ 95 RJay _____________________100 __ 97 __ 99 _____ 98 _ 100 _ 105 ___ 102 _ 119 __ 95 wxallannj _________________98 __ 96 __ 95 _____ 95 __ 98 _ 101 ___ 104 _ 119 __ 93

Anyone who missed the contest notice and wants in, or who wishes to amend a forecast as given above, can do so today ... after that the contest is closed to further entries for scoring purposes. As of present moment, I had received six entries on Net-weather and none on the Irish site which provided four or five in past years. I am a member there so I guess I will be their sole representative unless somebody shows an interest today.

_________Table of forecasts______________ FORECASTER (order of entry) ______________ TS _ H _ M matty40s (NW-3) ___________________________ 22 _ 11 _ 6 Metwatch (NW-1, 13) _______________________ 21 _ 10 _ 4 Roger Smith (27) ___________________________ 20 _ 11 _ 3 CHSVol (13) ________________________________ 20 _ 10 _ 4 The Tall Weatherman (NW-5) ______________ 20 __ 9 _ 5 NeffsvilleWx (10) ____________________________19 __ 8 _ 5 marsman (14) _______________________________19 __ 5 _ 3 ldub23 (5) __________________________________ 18 _ 10 _ 5 Rhino16 (24) ________________________________ 18 _ 10 _ 4 Midlands Ice Age (NW-2, 14) ________________18 _ 10 _ 3 hudsonvalley21 (34) ________________________ 18 _ 9 _ 5 Yanksfan (8) ________________________________ 18 _ 9 _ 4 nvck (32) ___________________________________ 18 _ 9 _ 4 WYorksWeather (NW-4) ____________________ 17 _ 12 _ 6 Tallis Rockwell (18) __________________________ 17 _ 11 _ 5 Torch Tiger (17) _____________________________ 17 __ 9 _ 4 yoda (22) ____________________________________17 __ 9 _ 4 ___ consensus _______________________________ 17 __ 9 _ 4 (median) Normandy Ho (30) __________________________ 17 __ 8 _ 5 BarryStantonGBP (1) ________________________ 17 __ 8 _ 4 wxallannj (21) ________________________________17 __ 8 _ 4 jmearroz (31) ________________________________ 17 __ 8 _ 4 George BM (35) _____________________________ 17 __ 8 _ 4 Kaari (NW-7) ________________________________ 17 __ 8 _ 4 cnimbus (6) _________________________________ 17 __ 7 _ 4 FPizz (9) ____________________________________ 17 __ 7 _ 4 wxdude64 (28) ______________________________17 __ 7 _ 3 jconsor (3) __________________________________ 16 __ 9 _ 5 BKViking (29) _______________________________ 16 __ 9 _ 4 ___ UKMO ___________________________________ 16 __ 9 _ 4 LakeNormanStormin (7) _____________________16 __ 8 _ 4 Floydbster (12) ______________________________ 16 __ 8 _ 4 WxWatcher007 (25) ________________________ 16 __ 8 _ 4 ___ NOAA ___________________________________ 16 __ 8 _ 4 Newman (15) ________________________________ 16 __ 7 _ 3 vpbob21 (19) _________________________________15 __ 7 _ 4 ineedsnow (2) _______________________________15 __ 7 _ 3 cardinalland (14) _____________________________15 __ 6 _ 3 NC USGS^ (33) ______________________________ 14 _ 10 _ 2 Ga Wx (20) __________________________________ 14 __ 9 _ 3 LongBeachSurfFreak (4) ____________________ 14 __ 8 _ 4 Retrobuc (11) ________________________________ 14 __ 6 _ 3 StormchaserChuck (23) _____________________ 13 __ 7 _ 4 Kirkcaldy Weather (NW-6) ___________________ 12 __ 9 _ 4 Hotair (26) ___________________________________ 11 __ 4 _ 2 ================= mean (excl expert fcsts) is 16.8 __ 8.3 _ 4.0 ^ ... NC US Geological Survice is full user i.d. For NW entries, an equivalent order of entry to Am-Wx entries is provided for first and second entries

Extreme heat covers the entire PAC NW and BC region, highs close to 100 F in many locations inland. Cloudless over the region, visible satellite making it easy to find remnant snow cover on mountain ranges.

or a heat burst from nearby thunderstorm? (I saw mention of storms in parts of region, wasn't following very closely today) ... those heat bursts usually happen towards end of a storm's life cycle though.

As always, predict the highest temperatures to be expected this summer at the four airports: DCA IAD BWI RIC and I will start the ball rolling with 101, 101, 102 and 100. Contest deadline 06z June 20 2025 (end of Thursday June 19th) ... I have adjusted the deadline in view of model forecasts of possible high values around 22nd-23rd, to avoid having last minute nowcasts competing with forecasts submitted in advance. ... we seem to be on track to receive a good turnout of entries ... Tie-breaker details: lowest errors break ties, order of entry the last level separating ties For example, 0 1 1 1 beats 0 1 2 0. ... 2 1 1 1 beats 2 2 1 0. ... June 12th beats June 15th. ___ DEFENDING 2024 WINNER: Jebman ___

Just another update on contest ... my first stab at May scoring (mid-May) was horrendously bad so if you looked in then to May 31st, and saw those numbers and figured, well, the results will be sort of like that, nope, they were much different (it was much colder in the east and ORD, DEN than projected by me at the time) ... ... those scores are back before some chat about snowfall contest, and the snowfall contest results are back further also. I think DEN is clear of snow risks by now although it could always happen there in June. ... Annual updates are also posted just before this month's forecast posts begin. I will be adding an update on four seasons scoring later (will edit into annual scoring post). I will wait and see who has entered seasonal max by June 7th (edit your posts or re-post as you wish, I have already collected June forecasts). Then I will send messages to any non-entrants who may not be aware there is a call for forecasts. Final note, I have a 2025 N Atlantic hurricane season forecast contest running in the tropical section, some of you have entered already, deadline is June 7th (06z).

__ Table of forecasts for June 2025 __ a separate table will be created for seasonal max ... enter by June 10th FORECASTER _________________ DCA _NYC _BOS ___ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA Roger Smith __________________ +3.0 _+3.0 _+3.0 ___ +3.0 _+3.0 _+3.0 ___+1.5 _+1.5 _+1.5 RJay __________________________ +2.5 _+2.5 _+2.5 ___ +2.5 _+1.5 _ +2.0 ___+1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 hudsonvalley21 _______________ +2.4 _+2.4 _+2.0 ___ +1.4 _+1.2 _ +1.0 ___+0.7 _+2.5 _+0.2 wxallannj _____________________+2.2 _+2.3 _+2.6 ___ +0.5 _ +2.1 _ +1.3 ___+0.7 _+1.8 _+0.7 BKViking _____________________ +2.1 _ +2.2 _ +2.1 ___ +1.9 _ +0.3 _+0.5 ___+1.8 _ +1.0 _+1.9 Tom __________________________ +1.8 _ +1.6 _ +1.7 ____ +1.1 __+1.7 __+0.9___+0.5 _+2.1 _+0.8 ___ Consensus ________________+1.8 _ +2.0 _ +2.1 ___ +1.3 _ +1.1 __ +1.0 ___+0.7 _+1.4 _+1.0 so_whats_happening _________ +1.7 _ +1.6 _ +2.1 ___ +1.4 __+1.1 _ +1.0 ___ +2.1 _+1.3 _+2.1 DonSutherland1 _______________+1.6 _+2.2 _+2.3 ___ +2.6 _+0.2 _+0.8 ___+0.4 _+1.3 _+0.5 Stormchaserchuck1 __________ +1.6 _ +1.8 _ +2.0 ___ +0.8 _+0.6 _+0.7 ___+2.5_+2.7 _+1.0 Scotty Lightning _____________ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 ____+0.5 _+1.0 _ +1.5 ___ +0.5 _+2.0_ +0.5 wxdude64 ____________________+0.8 _ +1.2 _ +1.4 ___ +0.4 _+0.8 _+0.5___-0.4 _+0.4 _+0.9 ___ Normal ____________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 _ 0.0 _ 0.0 RodneyS ______________________ -0.5 _ +1.1 _ +1.0 ____ -1.8 _ -0.7 _ +1.2 ___ +0.1 _+0.1 _ +1.1 _________________ Persistence (May 2025) _______-0.2 _-0.9 _+0.8 ___ -2.6 _ +0.3 _ +3.2 __ +0.3 _+1.4 _-0.5 ======================================== Highest and lowest forecasts are color coded. Normal has low forecast for NYC, BOS, IAH, PHX and SEA.

Enter your forecast for seasonal totals of storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes (in the North Atlantic basin) ... using NOAA official counts as our contest guide ... separate thread in tropical forum.

CSU April 3, 2025 17 9 4 UKMO May 21, 2025 16 9 4 NOAA __ May 22, 2025 13-19 6-10 3-5 (16 8 4 avg fcst)

Got lucky with a late flare up and as of 0200 local, very good display (49N 117W).

Contest deadline extended to 6/6 ... I will say 20/11/3.

Just looking at the latest depictions from NOAA space weather, the geomagnetic storm flared up big time between 09z and 15z, then petered out for several hours, and has since begun to recharge (a second wave of material from the active Sun). As of now, all of New England and NYS would be seeing northern lights if it were dark outside. Hopefully this trend will continue. You can access real-time depictions of the aurora at swpc.noaa.gov. The auroral ring "forecast" is actually a 24-hour time lapse and its "forecast" component is only a few minutes into the future, what you see there is the previous 23 hours and the projected next hour of coverage. I've found from experience that if you're in the "green" outer zone you need to be in a very dark un-light-polluted spot to see much, if you're in yellow you'll easily see a lot of details in low-light-pollution rural spots and if you're in the red then you'll see an awe-inspiring display (all assuming you aren't clouded over of course). Hoping it stays active to 06z so I get a chance here, never went out to look last night because it was cloudy at 0200h. We had a very strong cold front go through late Saturday, highs were near 90F on Saturday and barely 60F today. Unusual for this time of year around here.