Roger Smith

Table of forecasts for snowfall winter 2024-2025 ... listed in order of total snowfall predicted ... FORECASTER ______________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _DTW _BUF ___ DEN _SEA _BTV ___ TOTAL Roger Smith ________________13.5_ 32.0_ 47.0 ___ 50.6_ 52.2_ 130.0 ___ 89.0_ 1.5_109.3 ___ 525.1 wxdude64 _________________ 18.8_ 36.2_ 44.3 ___ 37.8_ 41.3_ 122.9 ___ 71.2_ 7.4 _102.7 ___ 482.6 Tom ________________________26.2_ 38.1_ 42.4 ___ 37.6_ 42.3_ 102.6 ___ 57.7_ 6.4__83.4 ___ 436.7 ___ Normal 1991-2020 _____13.7_ 29.8_ 49.2 ___38.4 _45.0__95.4 ___ 49.0_ 6.3__87.5 ___ 414.3 BKViking ___________________12.0_ 27.0_ 44.0 ___ 30.0_ 28.0__ 98.0 ___ 55.0_14.0_ 100.0 ___ 408.0 RodneyS ____________________5.8_ 22.0_ 38.5 ___ 42.5_ 45.0__ 99.0 ___ 58.0_ 9.5__85.0 ___ 405.5 ___ Consensus ____________14.8_ 23.6_ 34.8 __ 35.0_ 36.7 _ 104.2 __ 57.4 _ 5.8 _ 91.7 ___ 404.0 RJay _______________________ 4.0_ 12.0 _ 50.0 ___ 29.0_ 35.0_ 100.0 ___ 60.0_ 6.0_ 100.0 ___ 396.0 Scotty Lightning ___________20.0_ 25.0_ 30.0___ 35.0_ 30.0_ 106.0 ___ 45.0 _ 3.0_ 100.0 ___ 394.0 wxallannj __________________25.0_ 30.0_ 34.0 ___32.0_ 35.0__ 94.0 ___ 40.0_ 4.0__ 88.0 ___ 382.0 Don Sutherland1 ___________ 8.0_ 16.5_ 35.0 ___ 40.0_ 45.0__ 95.0 ___ 55.0_ 8.0__ 75.0 ___ 377.5 hudsonvalley21 ____________17.0_ 21.0_ 28.0 ___ 26.0_ 24.0_ 102.0 ___ 51.0 _ 4.0__ 84.0 ___ 357.0 so_whats_happening ______13.0_ 19.0_ 35.0 ___ 29.0_ 31.0__ 98.0 ___ 39.0 _ 3.0__ 81.0 ___ 348.0 ___________________________ Persistence (2023-2024) ___ 8.0__ 7.5__ 9.8 ___ 22.2_ 23.5__ 71.3 ___ 44.6_ 0.3__ 60.8 ___ 248.0 _________________________ To date _____ (Jan 25) ______ 8.6 __ 5.8 __12.5 ___ 9.9 _14.1 __ 48.7 ___ 37.0 __0.0 __27.9 ____164.5 (contest incl all seasonal snow) 1991-2020 normals from NWS website, DEN is Stapleton (since new airport did not exist all years of period) Consensus does not incl 1991-2020 or Persistence (last winter's contest finals). It is average of eleven forecasts.

TRW 70% likely 22z to 23z in NYC metro, 23z to 00z sw CT and LI. Expect first T reports from cNJ 21z to 22z. Slight bow echo on cold front near PA-NJ border now. Gusts to 45 possible and 35 likely. Could be minor svr wx risk by 01-03z in e NE, gusts to 60 kts (all gust references earlier in kts)

Given how conventional weather models are designed and operate, how is "AI" any different? A conventional weather model is an objective prediction not based on any human input (after humans give model latest data), so I can't really see how "AI" is anything different? What does an AI weather model do that a conventional weather model (in use since 1970s) does not do? (and if they aren't as good, what's the point of them, what can in future allow them to outdo the ones we use now?) And what prevents operators of those models from incorporating same advances? Why would one not do so? I guess I am a bit skeptical about the real nature of "AI" and I suspect it is just jargon for "different technique" since we already have weather models that are objectively derived simulations of a future state of the atmosphere, what can AI possibly be other than that same thing?

Table of forecasts for December 2024 FORECASTER ___________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA RJay _____________________________+1.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 ___ +1.5 _ +1.0 _ +2.0 __ +4.0 _ +4.0 _ +4.0 Scotty Lightning _________________ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 __ +0.5 _ +1.0 _ +1.5 __ +0.5 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 StormchaserChuck _______________+0.8 _ +0.8 _+0.4 ___+1.1 _ +2.0 _ +2.0 __+4.5 _ +3.8 _+0.9 hudsonvalley21 __________________ +0.6 _ +0.5 _ +0.2 __+0.2 _ +0.7 _ +1.0 __+0.2 _ +0.9 _ +0.1 ___ Normal _______________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 Don Sutherland1 __________________ 0.0 _ -0.5 _ -0.3 ___ +1.2 _ +0.2 _ +1.7 ___+3.6 _ +3.6 _ +4.4 BKViking _________________________ -0.5 _ -0.7 _ -2.0 ___+0.2 _ +0.5 _ +2.2 ___+4.0 _+4.0 _+3.2 ___ Consensus __________________ -0.6 _ -0.6 _ -0.8 ___+0.2 _+0.4 _ +1.4 __ +1.9 _ +2.4 _+1.0 wxallannj ________________________ -0.7 _ -1.0 _ -1.2 ____ -0.6 _ +1.4 _ +1.8 ___ +2.1 _ +1.8 _ +2.4 so_whats_happening ____________ -0.8 _ -0.6 _ -1.0 ___ +1.0 _ +0.8 _ +1.2 ___ +1.6 _ +2.2 _ +0.8 wxdude64 _______________________ -1.1 __-1.5 __-0.7 ___ -0.4 _ -0.3 _ +0.6 ___ +0.6 _ +1.4 _ -0.4 Tom ______________________________-1.2 _ -1.5 _ -1.5 ____ -1.1 __ -0.8 _ +0.5 ___ +1.7 _ +1.9 _ +2.1 Roger Smith ______________________-2.2 _ -2.4 _ -1.5 ___ -3.0 __ 0.0 _ +1.5 ___ +1.5 _ +3.5 _ -0.2 RodneyS _________________________ -3.7 _ -3.2 _-3.2 ___ -2.5 _ -3.6 _ -1.5 ____ +2.9 _ +2.6 _ +1.1 ___________________________ Persistence (Nov 2024) _________ +5.3 _ +3.4 _+4.2 ___+4.9 _+5.4 _+7.3 ____-1.2 _ -1.0 _ -0.5 highest and lowest forecasts are color coded ... Normal is lower than all forecasts for DEN and PHX

I would expect a few fast-moving squalls of hail and then snow after frontal passage Thursday, temps peaking at 45F before front passes, and a fast drop to 30F by evening. Winds gusting to 45 mph. A milder spell Sunday to midweek with a peak temp near 60F then a week or so close to mid-Dec normals in 40s. Signs of a colder reload near end of GFS 12z. Overall the month could hang on to a negative departure if there is in fact a later reload.

Four Seasons Contest __ Final Report Points for four seasons ... 10 for first (total 3 scores), 7 for second, 6 for third, etc, 1 point for all entrants with 2/3 or 3/3 ___________________________ Winter ___________ Spring __________Summer _________________ Autumn _______________ Annual FORECASTER _______TOTAL_Points __ TOTAL_Points _ TOTAL_Points _ S_ O _N __ TOTAL_Points _ Contest TOTAL wxallannj ______________ 1736 __10 ____ 2224 __10 ____1706 ___6t ____ 602 481 568_ 1651 __ 7 ______ 32 DonSutherland 1 ________1524 __ 7 ____ 2010 ___3 ____1694 ___ 4 _____588 495 648_ 1731 __10 _____ 24 Roger Smith _____________ 793 __ 1 _____2124 ___6 ____1954 __ 10 _____530 330 688_ 1548 __3 _____ 20 ___ Consensus __________1408 __3.3 ___2088 __5.5 ___1758 ___ 6.2 ___ 594 450 588_ 1632__4.8_____19.8 so_whats_happening ___1487 __ 5 _____1946____2 ____1706 ___ 6t ____ 516 425 585_ 1526 __ 2 ______ 15 RJay ___________________ 1391 __ 3 _____2142 ___7 ____1580 ___ 1 ______664 468 510_ 1642 __ 5 ______ 16 Tom ____________________1038 __ 1 _____ 2050 ___5 ___ 1682 ___ 3 _____ 556 437 650_ 1643 __ 6 ______ 15 hudsonvalley21 _________1450 __ 4 ____ 1918 ___ 1 ____ 1568 ___ 1 ______576 524 499_ 1599 __ 4 ______ 10 Scotty Lightning ________1184 __ 1 ______1900 ___1 ____ 1906 ___ 7 _____ 572 470 429_ 1471 ___ 1 ______ 10 RodneyS _______________ 1497 __ 6 _____1700 ___1 ____ 1550 ___ 1 _____ 488 540 494_ 1522 ___ 1 _______9 rainsucks _______________ 1111 ___ 1 _____2040 __ 4 ____1622 ___ 2 _____ 636 --- ---____ 636 __ 0 _______7 BKViking ________________ 1336 __ 2 ____1921 ___ 1 _____1130 ___ 1 _____ 558 428 --- ___ 986 __ 1 _______5 wxdude64 _______________1098 __ 1 ____ 1722 ___ 1 ____ 1412 ____1 _____ 442 296 437 _ 1175 __ 1 _______4 ___ Normal ______________ 1002 __ 1 ____ 1474 ___ 1 ____ 1470 ___ 1 _____ 526 294 296 _ 1116 __ 1 _______4 Stormchaser Chuck ______792 ___ 1 _____708 ___ 0 ____ 1484 ____ 1 _____--- 665 --- ___665 __ 0 ______2 Rhino16 __________________ 747 ___ 1 _____672 ____ 0 ____ 739 ___ 0 _____ --- --- --- _____--- __ 0 ______ 1 ***= = ====================== [[[]]] ====================== = =*** Persistence ______________ 972 ___ 1 ____ 1818 ___ 1 _____1592 ____ 1 _____ 706 602 490_1798 __10 _____ 13 ____________________________ GeorgeBm 590 in July only entry not qualified for contest points.

-2.2 _ -2.4 _ -1.5 __ -3.0 _ 0.0 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 _ +3.5 _ -0.2 13.5 _ 32.0 _ 47.0 __ 50.6 _52.2_130.0 _ 89.0_1.5 _ 109.3

Note to regulars and potential new entrants, Dec contest is approaching deadline in general forum.

As you know, 2023 was warmest year for NYC and it looks possible that 2024 will replace it unless DEC is cold (last year it was very mild). Allowing for a drop of 1.9 in NOV (now at 52.9 after 26 days), these are the differentials showing that 2024 has overtaken 2023 after June and will have a total differential of +7.2 deg. Therefore DEC will need to average 7.2 lower than last year's toasty 44.6 (2nd to 2015) to create a tie (a narrow range around 37.4 F will create a one-decimal tie). 36.8 appears to be a target value to prevent 2024 from overtaking 2023, and that average for DEC ranks 74th out of 155 and is below all but six averages for DEC since (and incl) 2000 (2002, 2005, 2009, 2010, 2017). 2023 ___43.5 _41.1 _44.6 _ 57.6 _62.7 _70.0 _79.0 _74.0 _69.4 _ 60.5 __46.7 __ 44.6 ___ 58.0 2024 ___37.0 _40.1 _48.1 _ 55.6 _65.0 _75.1 _79.6 _75.1 _68.8 __ 60.9 __ 51.0 __ ?? diff ____ -6.5 _-1.0 _+3.5 _-2.0 _+2.3 _+5.1 _+0.6 _+1.1 _-0.6 __ +0.4 __ +4.3 __ ?? DEC 2024 will need to average below 31 F to fall below tied 2nd warmest 2012, 2020. An extremely cold DEC could take 2024 out of the top ten because the ranks are quite densely populated starting with four years tied 4th warmest (1990,91,98, 2016) just behind the second place tie.

We have had about 18" snow here since Wednesday, 24-30 in ski areas a bit higher up. This is a very early start to good ski conditions, resorts were expecting a good winter but aren't opening until early December for staffing reasons. Temps hover near freezing so a certain amount of slush is present before military-style snow removal comes along the streets of this ski resort town. About 6" snow down in Columbia valley where some fell as cold rain.

<<<< ===[]===[] .......... ==== Annual scoring for Jan-Nov 2024 ==== ..........[]===[]=== >>>> FORECASTER ____________DCA_NYC_BOS__ east ___ ORD_ATL_IAH_____cent __ c/e ____ DEN_PHX_SEA _ west __ TOTALS wxallannj _______________819 _782 _830 __2431 __ 613 _806 _675 __2094 _4525 __657 _715 _824 _2196 ___ 6721 ___ Consensus ________787 _786 _846 __2419 __ 613_766 _667 __ 2046 _4465 __576 _671_784 _2031 ___6496 DonSutherland1 ________795 _822 _840 __2457 __ 653 _728 _623 __2004 _ 4461 __666 _694 _656 _2016 ___6477 RJay ___________________ 805 _747 _744 __ 2296 __ 665 _775 _657 __2097 _4393 __579 _619 _697 __1895 ___ 6288 so_whats_happening ___757 _766 _840 __2363 __ 622 _ 718 _590 __1930 _4293 __ 583 _597 _748 __1928 ___ 6221 Scotty Lightning ________742 _679 _739 __2160 __ 459 _805 _733 __1997 _ 4157 __ 544 _593 _839 __1976 ___ 6133 Roger Smith ____________717 _702 _632 __ 2051 __ 633 _773 _579 __ 1985 _ 4036 __610 _765 _714 __2089 ___ 6125 Tom ____________________765 _692 _788 __2245 __ 514 _732 _647 __ 1893 _ 4138 __ 514 _605 _846 __1965 ___ 6103 hudsonvalley21 _________697 _658 _714 __2069 __ 617 _762 _704 __ 2083 _4152 __ 594 _581 _766 __ 1941 ___ 6093 RodneyS _______________ 571 _744 _782 __2097 __ 476 _534 _645 __ 1655 _ 3752 __716 _529 _846 __ 2091 ___5843 rainsucks (9/11) ________ 733 _689 _617 __2039 __ 542 _651 _593 __ 1786 _ 3825 __467 _559 _558 __ 1584 ___5409 (6611) wxdude64 _____________ 494 _577 _701 __ 1772 __ 468 _489 _529 __ 1486 _ 3258 __549 _569 _825 __ 1943 ___5201 BKViking (9/11) _________640 _588 _652 __1880 __ 422 _601 _539 __ 1562 _ 3442 __447 _ 531 _619 __ 1597 ___5039 (6159) --------------------- Persistence ____________ 777 _746 _774 __2297 __523 _758 _651 __1932 _4229 _ 260 _609 _750 __1629 ___ 5858 Normal _________________522 _516 _630 __ 1668 __442 _528 _464 __1434 _3102 _ 474 _468 _912 __ 1854 ___4956 Stormchaser Chuck (7/11)_424_438_472__1334 __397 _388 _352 __1137 __2471 __322 _440 _416 __ 1178 ___ 3649 (5734) Rhino16 (4/11) __________ 210 _186 _198 __ 594 __ 227 _286 _216 __ 729 __1323 ___230 _341 _260 __ 831 ___ 2154 (5924) George BM (1/11) ________88 _ 98 _ 96 __ 282 __ 48 _ 70 __ 42 __ 160 __ 442 ___ 98 __ 18 __ 32 __ 148 ______ 590 (6490) pro-rated scores for entrants above can be better compared to field and Normal. Persistence stayed well above Normal and is advancing into lower portion of forecaster group. ----------------------------------- Best forecasts * tied wins (one per * ) ^ 3 forecasters tied (plus Consensus and normal -- 4 for SEA for 2024-03 and PHX for April ) FORECASTER ___________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent _ c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west___ TOTAL wxallannj ________________3*___ 1*___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 2** __0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___2*___ 3* ___ 2 ____1 _May ___ Consensus _________ 0 ___ 2^____ 0 ____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1^____0 __ 0 DonSutherland1 _________ 1 ___ 1^ ___ 2 ____ 4 *___ 2*____ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____3 ___ 3* ___1 ___ 2^____ 1 ____ 1 RJay _____________________1*___ 1*___ 0 ____ 1*____ 0 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 2^ ____ 2 *___2 _ Mar, Sep so_whats_happening ____0 ___ 1^ ___ 1 ____ 0 ____1 *___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 2 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*____ 0 ___ 0 Scotty Lightning _________1 ___ 2^___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 3* ____ 1* ___ 1 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 3^____ 0 ___ 0 Roger Smith _____________0 ___ 3^ __ 1 ____ 1 ____0 ___3*** _ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 4^ ___ 1* ____4 ____ 4 _Apr,Jul,Aug,Nov Tom _____________________ 1 ___ 2**__0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1^___ 1 *____0 _____0 hudsonvalley21 _________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____0 ____ 2**__1* ___ 4 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 0 ____ 1*____0 _____0 rainsucks _______________ 2 ___ 3 ____ 2 ____ 2 ____ 2 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1^ ___0 ____ 1 *____1 _ Feb RodneyS ________________ 1 ___ 1 ____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 3 ___ 2*___ 0 ____ 1 _____ 1 _ Jan wxdude64 _______________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 _____2 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____ 2 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2*____0 ____ 0 BKViking ________________ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1^___ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 Normal __________________ 1 ___ 1 ___ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 3^____ 0 ______0 Stormchaser Chuck _____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 2 ___ 2**__0 ____ 2 ____ 1 ___ 1* ___ 1*___ 0 ____0 _____ 1 _ Oct Rhino16 _________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 2 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 1 ____ 2 ______1 _ Jun George BM ______________ 0 ___ 1^ ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 _____0 July NYC five tied, added to table ^ ... tied total score of DonS and George for eastern total not indicated as tied. RodneyS also DEN in July EXTREmE FORECAST REPORT so far, a total of 69 qualified (49 for warmest, 20 for coldest) ... ... Jan 2-2, Feb 8-0, Mar 4-0, Apr 4-2, May 3-2, June 7-1, July 2-3, Aug 3-4, Sep 4-1, Oct 8-1, Nov 4-4 * tied for a win or loss, scores adjusted in final col. FORECASTER _________ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _ Apr _ May _ Jun _ Jul _ Aug _ Sep _Oct_ Nov __ TOTAL __ adj for ties rainsucks ______________2-0 _ 4-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-2* _ 0-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-1 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 ___ 9-3 ___ 9.0 - 2.5 Scotty Lightning ______ 0-0 _ 2*-0_0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 3-0 _ 0-0 _2*-0 _0-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0 ___ 9-0 ___ 8.0 - 0 Roger Smith ___________0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-1 _ 2*-1 _ 1*-0_ 0-0 _ 2*-0_1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 2-1 ____ 9-3 ___ 7.5 - 3.0 RodneyS ______________ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0 -0 _ 3-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-1* _ 0-1 ___ 7-2 ___ 7.0 - 1.5 ___ Normal ____________ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-1 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-1 __ 3-0 __ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 ___ 7-2 ___ 7.0 - 2.0 hudsonvalley21 _______ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 3**-0_0-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-1 _ 1-0 _ 1-0 __ 0-0 ___ 6-1 ___ 4.0 - 1.0 Stormchaser Chuck ___ 0-2 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 2*-0 _0-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _ 4*-1 _0-0 ___ 6-3 ___ 5.0- 3.0 Rhino16 ________________0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 4-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __0-0 ___ 5-0 ___ 5.0 - 0 DonSutherland1 ________0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0 -0 _ 1-0 __0-0 _ 2*-0_3*-0 __ 8-0 ___ 7.0 - 0 wxallannj _______________0-0 _ 1*-0_ 0-0 _ 2*-1 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0_0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __0-0 ___5-1 ___ 3.5 - 1.0 wxdude64 _____________ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _2-0 _ 0-0 __ 1-0 _ 0-1 * _ 1*-0 __5-1 ___ 4.5 - 0.5 RJay ___________________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-2 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0 _2-0 _ 0-0 __0-0 ___ 4-2 ___ 3.5 - 2.0 Tom ____________________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __0-0 _ 2*-0 __ 2-0 __ 1.5 _ 0.0 so_whats_happening ___0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __0-0 _ 1*-0___ 1-0 __ 0.5 _ 0.0 BKViking _______________ 0-0 _ 0-1 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 ___ 0-1 __ 0.0 _ 1.0

Predict temp anomalies for nine locations (F deg relative to 1991-2020 averages) ... DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Deadline is 06z Dec 1st By Dec 10, post snowfall predictions (include snow already reported) DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BuF __ DEN _ SEA _ BTV (also note, ne-us snowfall contest off site, at following location, Dec 1 deadline seasonal (Dec - mar only) also storm contests in season. http://www.newx-forecasts.com/#RULES

New table for contest scoring, placing scores in rank order Ranks are (a) overall contest and (b) within your forum Ranks of non-contest entities do not affect entrant ranks. Table will be adjusted if any more activity develops. Ranks _ FORECASTER (order of entry) _____storms_hurr_major __ 18 11 5 (_ 19 11 5 _ 20 11 5) (a) (b) _______________________________________ errors (18 11 5) __ results _ what if ... _ 1 _1 __Kirkcaldy Weather (NW-4) ____________0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___100.0 __(99.5 __ 98.5) _2 _1 __Ed Snow and Hurricane Fan (6) _______0____(-1) __(-1)____98.0 ___97.5 __ 96.5 _3 _2 __Rhino16 (2) ___________________________2 ___ 1 ___ 0 _____ 97.5 ___ 98.5 __ 99.0 _4 _3 __Torch Tiger (13) ______________________ 2 ___ 0 ___ 1 _____ 97.5 ___ 98.5 __ 99.0 _5 _4 __jlauderdal (36) ________________________1 ___(-2)__ 0 _____96.5 ___ 97.0 __ 96.5 (5.6) ______ NOAA median forecast __________ 3 __-0.5__0.5 ____96.2 ___ 97.7 __ 98.7 _6 _5 __Gawx (35) ____________________________ 3 ___(-1)___0 ____ 96.0 ___ 97.5 __ 98.5 _7 _6 __vpBob (27) ____________________________2 ___(-2)__0 _____95.5 ___ 96.5 __ 97.0 _8 _7 __ldub23 (40) ___________________________3 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 95.0 ___ 96.5 __ 97.5 _9 _8 __Yoda (30) _____________________________4 ___ 1 ___ 0 _____94.0 ___ 96.0 __ 97.5 10 _9__cardinalland (26) ______________________ 4 ___ 1 ___ 1 _____ 93.0 ___ 95.0 __ 96.5 11 _2 __Metwatch (NW-1) _____________________ 4 ___(-1)__(-1)____93.0 ___ 95.0 __ 96.5 (11) _____ UKMO forecast _____________________ 4 ___ 1 ___(-1)____ 93.0 ___ 95.0 __ 96.5 12 _10__wkd (29) ______________________________(-3)___(-2)__(-1)___93.0 ___ 91.0 __ 88.5 13 _1 ___tae laidir (IE-4) _______________________(-3)__ (-2)__(-1)___93.0 ___ 91.0 __ 88.5 (13.5) _______ Expert consensus _______________ 5 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____92.5 ___ 95.0 __ 97.0 14 _11__Seminole (25) __________________________ 4 ___ 0 __(-2) ____92.0 ___ 94.0 __ 95.5 15 _12 __Hotair (28) ____________________________ 5 ___ 0 ___(-1)____ 91.5 ___ 94.0 __ 96.0 (15.3) __ 1991-2020 average (14/7/3) ________(-4)___(-1)__ (-2) __ 91.0 ___ 89.0 __ 87.5 16 _ 3 __dancerwithwings (NW-2) ______________ 1 __ (-3)__(-2)____ 90.5 ___ 91.0 __ 90.5 17 _ 2 __Pauldry (IE-1) __________________________ 3 ___(-3)__(-1) ___ 90.0 ___ 91.5 __ 92.5 18 _13 __LakeNormanStormin (41) _______________6 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 89.5 ___ 92.5 __ 95.0 (19) ___ Contest consensus (Median) __________ 6 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 88.5 ___ 91.5 __ 94.0 19 _14 __StormchaserChuck1 (4) ________________ 5 ___ 2 ___ 1 _____ 88.5 ___ 91.0 __ 93.0 20 _15 __Stebo (17) ______________________________ 6 ___ 1 ___ 0 _____88.5 ___ 91.5 __ 94.0 21 _16 __FPizz (18) _______________________________ 5 ___ 2 ___(-1)___ 88.5 ___ 91.0 __ 93.0 22 _ 3 __DOCARCH (IE-2) _______________________ 6 ___ 0 ___ 1 _____88.5 ___ 91.5 __ 94.0 23 _17 __Roger Smith (20) _______________________ 6 ___ 0 ___(-1)____88.5 ___ 91.5 __ 94.0 24 _18 __GeorgeBM (37) _________________________ 5 ___ 2 ___ 1 _____ 88.5 ___ 91.0 __ 93.0 25 _19 __Eyewall (late) ___________________________ 6 ___ 1 ___ 0 _____88.5 ___ 91.5 __ 94.0 26 _20 __Snowlover2 (15) _______________________ 4 ___ 3 ___ 1 _____ 88.0 ___ 90.0 __ 91.5 27 _21 __IntenseWind002 (24) ___________________ 6 ___ 2 ___ 0 _____86.5 ___ 89.5 __ 92.0 28 _22 __CHSVol (5) _____________________________ 7 ___ 1 ___ 0 _____ 85.0 ___ 88.5 __ 91.5 29 _23 __JonClaw (23) ___________________________7 ___ 1 ___ 0 _____ 85.0 ___ 88.5 __ 91.5 30 _24 __Big Jims Videos (21) ___________________ 7 ___ 1 ___(-1)_____84.0 ___ 87.5 __ 90.5 31 _25 __ncforecaster89 (38) ____________________ 7 ___ 1 ___ 1 ______84.0 ___ 87.5 __ 90.5 32 _26 __ImleahBradley (19) _____________________ 6 ___ 3 ___(-1)____ 82.5 ___ 85.5 __ 88.0 33 _27 __SnowenOutThere (39) __________________ 6 ___ 3 ___ 1 _____ 82.5 ___ 85.5 __ 88.0 34 _ 4 __Matty40s (NW-3) _______________________ 7 ____ 1 ____ 2 ____82.0 ___ 85.5 __ 88.5 35 _28 __Retrobuc (12) _________________________(-5)__(-3)__(-3)____80.5 ___ 77.5 __ 74.0 36 _29 __wxdude64 (late) ________________________7___(-3) __ 0 _____ 80.0 ___ 83.5 __ 86.5 37 _30 __Southmdwatcher (42) __________________ 4 ___ 4 ___ 3 _____ 79.0 ___ 81.0 __ 82.5 38 _31 __LovintheWhiteFluff (31) _________________ 8 ___ 2 ___ 1 _____ 78.0 ___ 82.0 __ 85.5 39 _32 __SnowLover22 (43) _____________________ 8 ___ 2 ___ 1 _____ 78.0 ___ 82.0 __ 85.5 40 _33 __Diggiebot (11) __________________________ 7 ___ 3 ___ 3 _____ 74.0 ___ 77.5 __ 80.5 41 _34 __metalicwx367 (34) _____________________ 8 ___ 4 ___ 2 _____ 69.0 ___ 73.0 __ 76.5 42 _35 __WxWatcher007 (1) ____________________ 10 ___ 2 ___ 1 _____ 68.5 ___ 73.5 __ 78.0 43 _36 __Brian5671 (22) _________________________ 7 ___ 5 ___(-2) ____67.0 ___ 70.5 __ 73.5 44 _37 __ineedsnow (32) ________________________ 9 ___ 3 ___ 3 _____ 65.5 ___ 70.5 __ 75.0 45 _38 __Tezeta (16) ____________________________ 11 ___ 2 ___ 2 _____ 61.0 ___ 66.5 __ 71.5 46 _39 __nvck (8) _______________________________ 11 ___ 4 ___ 0 _____ 57.0 ___ 62.5 __ 67.5 47 _40 __Yanksfan (9) ___________________________ 9 ___ 6 ___ 0 _____ 56.5 ___ 61.5 __ 66.0 48 _41 __cnimbus (3) ____________________________ 9 ___ 6 ___ 1 _____ 55.5 ___ 60.0 __ 64.5 49 _42 __Jtm12180 (33) _________________________10 ___ 5 ___ 2 _____54.5 ___ 59.5 __ 64.0 50 _43 __Normandy (14) ________________________ 7 ___ 6 ___ 5 _____50.0 ___ 53.5 __ 56.5 51 _44 __LongBeachSurfFreak (10) _____________ 14 ___ 1 ___(-1)____ 45.5 ___ 52.5 __ 59.0 52 _45 __karmac (7) ____________________________ 15 ___ 3 ___ 2 _____31.0 ___ 38.5 __ 45.5 53 _ 5 __WYorksWeather (NW-5) _______________ 14 ___ 6 ___ 3 _____20.5 ___ 27.5 __ 34.0 54 _ 46 __CurlyHeadBarrett (late) _______________15 ___ 4 ___ 3 _____18.0 ___ 25.5 __ 32.5 55 _ 4 __TomCosgrave (IE-3) ___________________ 21 __ 15 ___ 2 _____ 0.0 ____ 0.0 ___ 0.0 (for context, 21 0 0 scores -15.5, 21 15 2 scores -138.5) ______________________________ Kirkcaldy Weather (Net-wx) (KW below) wins at 18/11/5 (and also 19/11/5) Rhino16 and Torch Tiger would have overtaken at 20/11/5. We're not going to know the results for several weeks at least. (edit -- results above (first column of scores) now final.

Just noticed, dry spell ended with a new record daily precip value of 1.57" for Nov 21 (was 1.33" in 1944). (NYC)

Record long extended dry spell ends at 52 days Sep 30 to Nov 20 (0.19").

As Sara never went past TS, scoring table is edited to present scoring for 18/11/5 and potential scoring if we go to 19/11/5 and even 20/11/5.

Final scoring for Nov 2024 based on data posted above FORECASTER _________________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA_west__TOTALS Roger Smith ___________________ 65 _ 94 _ 96 _ 255 _ 72 _ 54 _ 29 _ 155 _410 _ 86 _ 96 _ 96 _ 278 ___688 Tom ___________________________ 89 _ 72 _ 90 _ 251 _ 64 _ 64 _ 51 _ 179 _ 430 _ 52 _ 70 _ 98 _ 220 ___ 650 Don Sutherland ________________75 _ 92 _ 66 _ 233 _ 80 _ 90 _ 69 _ 239 _472 _ 34 _ 66 _ 76 _ 176 ___648 ___ Consensus _______________ 65 _ 92 _ 90 _ 247 _ 62 _ 48 _ 25 _ 135 _ 382 _ 54 _ 72 _ 80 _ 206 ___ 588 so_whats_happening __________ 63 _ 94 _ 90 _ 247 _ 80 _ 36 _ 16 _ 132 __379 _ 48 _ 72 _ 86 _ 206 ___585 wxallannj ______________________ 65 _ 90 _ 70 _ 225 _ 46 _ 54 _ 23 _ 123 _ 348 _60 _ 86 _ 74 _ 220 ___ 568 RJay ___________________________77 _ 68 _ 74 _ 219 _ 62 _ 56 _ 47 _ 165 __ 384 _ 36 _ 20 _ 70 _ 126 ___ 510 hudsonvalley21 ________________ 49 _ 86 _ 70 _ 205 _ 60 _ 42 _ 18 _ 120 __325 _ 38 _ 54 _ 82 _ 174 ___ 499 RodneyS _______________________ 19 _ 60 _ 42 _ 121 _ 60 _ 36 _ 27 _ 123 __244 _ 82 _ 90 _ 78 _ 250 ___ 494 wxdude64 _____________________ 31 _ 60 _ 38 _ 129 _ 26 _ 10 _ 06 _ 042 _ 171 _ 84 _ 84 _ 98 _ 266 ___ 437 Scotty Lightning _______________ 47 _ 72 _ 46 _ 165 _ 22 _ 26 _ 20 _ 068 _ 233 _ 56 _ 60 _ 80 _ 196 ___ 429 ___ Normal ____________________ 00 _ 32 _ 16 _ 048 _ 02 _ 00 _ 00 _ 002 _050 _ 76 _ 80 _90 _246 ___ 296 ----------------- ___ Persistence (Oct 2024) _____41 _ 92 _ 50 _ 183 _ 84 _ 64 _ 73 _ 221 _ 404 _ 00 _ 00 _ 86 _ 086 ___ 490 ========================= Extreme Forecast Report DCA _ Tom presently in line for a win (high forecast) NYC, BOS _ presently not projected to be extreme forecast results. ORD _ Don S and so_whats_happening likely to share a win (high forecasts) ATL, IAH _ Don S also likely to win two (high forecasts) DEN _ Roger S on track to win (low forecast) PHX _ at -1.0 will be a win for Roger S and a loss for RodneyS (low forecast) SEA _ presently a loss for Roger S and a shared win for Tom and wxdude64. _ snowfall contest is added to DEC contest, seeking advice on 2025 contest plans, we could use a larger field (as always) and I continue to believe a different host might lead to greater participation. I could continue to score contest if desired (not presently in perfect health and concerned at age 75 for guaranteed availability) Normal __________________522 _484 _614 __1620 __440 _528 _464 __1432 _3052 _ 398 _388 _822 __ 1608 ___4660

Recent warm spells failed to set new records for weekly average temps, and unlike many recent warm spells, mean max did better than mean min (a feature of the ongoing dry spell?) ... Oct 31 to Nov 6 was closest to record values but still ended up in fifth place, at 69.29, with three years (1950, 1961, 2022) all tied at 70.00, and 1982 at 69.71 (4th). Oct 19 to 25 (72.86) was 1.57 below 1947 record of 74.43. In between, various other intervals stayed 5-10 below record pace and never did better than the above. In the same interval of Oct 31 to Nov 6, mean min of 52.57F compared to record value of 57.00 (2022), and mean daily (60.94) was below record of 63.50 (2022). Oct 20-26 came closer to a record for mean daily, 63.07 vs 64.86 in 1947 (1920 and 2017 were also warmer than 2024).

Anomalies and projections: _______________________DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA (1-14 Nov anom) _____+7.4 _ +5.0 _ +4.5 ___ +8.0 _+9.2 _+11.3 __-4.1 _ -4.3 _ +1.2 (p anom 1-30 Nov) ___+4.5 _ +3.5 _ +4.0 ___ +5.0 _+5.5 _+6.5 __-1.5 _ -1.0 _ -0.5 (final anom 1-30 Nov)_+5.3 _ +3.4 _ +4.2 ___ +4.9 _+5.4 _+7.3 __-1.2 _ -1.0 _ -0.5 (Nov 15) _ A very warm start in central and eastern regions, cool in western states and n/n PAC NW. Second half of NOV looks set to modify anomalies a little so projections are all closer to average. West will be rather warm at times and may end closer to normal. (Nov 25) _ adj NYC and BOS p anom (were 3.5, 2.5) (Nov 30) _ adj NYC to 3.5 and BOS to 4.0 (were 3.0) ... PHX -1.0 (was -2.0) and SEA -0.5 (was 0.0) Snowfall contest will be linked to Dec contest, DEN already has a snowfall of 20.0"

Don, in general I agree and believe it will be an active winter along a persistent storm track running approx STL-BFD-BTV, so coastal n.e. will often be in warm sectors but could see pre-frontal snow to rain a few times, and likely at least one or two significant coastal storms when and if pattern shifts south briefly. In western Canada as you indicate general expectation is a colder winter with lots of inland snow and the coastal storminess is already well on its way to verifying. I look for a lot of redeveloping scenarios PAC n.w to around s.e. CO, n.w. TX and OK-KS border to feed storm track I referenced. An average to above average sort of lake effect winter since a lot of the storm outbreaks will tend to pull in cold W-NW wraparound. Do you recall winter 1964-65? I was observing (as a teenager) in s Ontario west of Toronto, it was a non-stop parade of storms and all sorts of synoptics. Feb was especially volatile, record warm around Feb 10 and a big snowfall 25th (18"). I think NYC got 50F rain and strong winds from that one. If 1964-65 repeated it would be a very active winter getting off to a slow start in Dec and picking up pace rapidly in Jan. Another winter broadly similar was 1980-81 and a big storm like Jan 1-2 1999 would not be unexpected in the pattern apparently setting up. Lunar declination and tidal energy peaks favor peak storminess mid-Dec and Jan, and very late Dec, Jan. Secondary peaks would be likely but closer to a 5-9-5-9 day cycle than id-cycle secondary peaks. Feb gets into a faster wave modality on that (experimental) energy and would favor a weekly storminess peak on a near 5-8-6-7 day modulation.

In my list of "extended dry spells" with average rainfall less than .01" every two days, 2024 is now about to move into first place, tying 1995 (July 29 to Sep 12, 46 days, 0.18") yesterday ... Sep 30 - Nov 14 2024 (46d) 0.19" and according to GFS will get to 53 days (to Nov 21), 0.07" can fall in next 6-7 days without ending an "extended dry spell" (but little or no rain is predicted)... If 0.10" fell on Nov 22, the extended dry spell would be "dormant" at a total rainfall of 0.29" (0.27" ends a 53 day spell but 3-4 dry days would reactivate it, but GFS guidance looks closer to 0.25-0.50 at least. 1924 ended at 44 days when 1.85" fell on Nov 22 (extended dry spell Oct 9 - Nov 21 had only .01" total on Nov 14 -- spell is in 3rd place now). The 1924 dry spell had 0.28" the day before it started (Oct 8), and seven dry days before that (Oct 1-7), so it was very close to qualifying as a 52-day extended dry spell. Of course my criterion is arbitrary, so there is no real distinction between the 52-day 1924 spell and the apparent 53-day 2024 spell. I chose .01" every two days to allow absolute dry spells to be extended if little rain fell on either side in data sets, and it is equivalent to a monthly total of around 0.15" which is an exceptionally dry total. Spells that average .01" per day would be an interesting comparison, as that is still relatively very dry.

I posted in NYC discussion that a similar dry spell (to 2024) in Oct-Nov 1924 was followed by a winter where almost all the snow (93%) fell in Jan which had a few severe cold spells (record low Jan 28) and that Feb 1925 was mild. Anyway, my winter forecast is along similar lines to discussion above, mixed temperatures, storm track often a bit north of this region, but wit variations so some opportunities for snow. I have predicted 13 to 19 inches at local airports in contest, and 6.5" RIC. It may be a gangbusters winter for parts of central plains, midwest, lower lakes and inland n.e., so when that happens this region is not likely to be shut out entirely.

Re winter forecast, as current dry spell still continuing very similar to 1924 timing, winter 1924-25 featured brief severe cold shots in Jan (-2 F set a record for Jan 28) and a mild spell in Feb peaking Feb 8-11 (records since broken). Then there was the historic super-tornado outbreak of march 18, 1925 (in IL-IN mainly). Total winter snowfall winter 1924-25 was 29.6" of which 27.5" fell in Jan! (11.5" fell on Jan 2nd, precip was 1.95" so it looks like a mixed event) Every other month of winter 1924-25 was a snowfall dud. This was the most "Janucentric" snowfall winter (93%) of all NYC winters, nearly tied second were recent: 3rd going to 2015-16 (27.9" was 85% of winter's 32.8"), and 2nd to 2021-22 (15.3" was 86% of winter's 17.9"); fourth place goes to 1953-54 (12.7" was 80% of winter's 15.8"). Winters of 1885-86 and 1934-35 as well as 1987-88 were also above 67% for winter snow in Jan. I expect winter 2024-25 to be quite active in the central plains, midwest, lower Great Lakes and interior northeast, will probably see relatively average snow totals along coast and frequent winter storms inland. I went a bit above LTA in snowfall contest (saying 32" for NYC) and a total between 25" and 35" would not surprise me. Expect one or two brief severe cold outbreaks and occasional near-record warm spells too.

I suspect that the storm track will often run through Ohio and PA into central NY and n New England. Based on that, I am not wildly optimistic for large snow totals in the contest zone but I will go with the top end of what I see as likely (the bottom end is slim to none). BWI: 17.7 IAD: 19.0 DCA: 13.5 RIC: 6.5 tiebreaker: SBY 7.2

If Sara arrives, count would go to 18/11/5 and possibly 18/12/5 or even 18/12/6. I already had 18/11/5 scoring in tables in previous post, and have now added 18/12/5 and 18/12/6 FYI. I also indicate what any later 19th named storm would mean for scoring leaders. I would not be too surprised by a late Nov or Dec TS add-on, or even two more? This season was looking like an under-performer relative to expectations, but now it looks like we got all but the August portion and the consensus of our hurricane and major forecasts has already peaked in potential scoring (same for NWS and expert consensus). Kirkcaldy Weather (Net-weather entrant) will have a perfect forecast if and when Sara does arrive, and would then lose a point for each occasion that Sara intensifies to hurricane or even major. Even so, their points total remains in the lead for any Sara outcome. A number of American Weather entrants are 0.5 to 2.0 behind various Sara outcomes, and could move past Kirkcaldy Weather if a 19th named storm appeared later. (all scoring details in previous post)