Roger Smith

Here's the latest forum ensemble (based on 21 entries so far to snowfall contest, closes at 0100h by the way) ... _______________________________ NYC _LGA_ ISP _JFK _EWR __ Consensus (median)__ 17.2_18.4_22.8_20.0_18.0 _________ storm total (in) 22nd-23rd

Looks like they are using the CBL (can't bust low) model.

I will start this off with NYC 16.5 LGA 17.0 ISP 23.9 JFK 14.5 EWR 19.8

The 06z GFS would lead one to believe there will be a rapid decrease in snow totals moving west across MD into nVA, I think it would be reasonable to expect Baltimore to get nearly twice as much as DC whatever the outcome. This region is not going to be ground zero for the blizzard but I doubt it reduces to anything close to a non-event, unless it would be a few parts of central VA possibly.

(As posted on PHL thread) The very rapid pressure falls (especially if GFS most accurate) off the NJ coast will result in wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph, as winds always overperform standard gradient metrics when pressure is falling very rapidly. This will probably apply to Long Island as well. Some parts of central NJ could easily see over 30 inches of snow. There could be bands of 20-25 inch accumulations further north over metro NYC and Long Island also. Drifting will be severe due to the wind speeds. In open areas there could be 4-6 ft drifts near the end of the event. (would say 6-8 ft in parts of NJ). This is all of course dependent on GFS verifying as to details of the bomb cyclone formation. Would cut most of this down by one third or more if there is a weaker bomb further from NJ to LI coasts. It has to be said, this is shaping up to be a potentially very dangerous situation, fortunately the worst conditions may be Sunday night and travel may become impossible by Monday morning which at least will prevent a lot of people from getting into dangerous situations, they will be trapped at home and probably digging out most of Tuesday. Temperatures won't be brutally cold but with these wind speeds, wind chills will be a factor. I think temps will stay fairly close to 30F through most of the snowfall period.

If the GFS verified verbatim there would probably be 60-70 mph wind gusts along the NJ coast, when you get pressure falls that rapidly the wind tends to overperform the usual gradient rules which might suggest 40-50. There could easily be 30 inches of snow in parts of central NJ also (if there is 100% verification). I would expect that to taper off to 15" by Allentown to n/c MD, so PHL around 24". What is the all-time record snow (storm total) for PHL or any other location in the vicinity? I would be grateful if anyone could post a top ten, partly for comparison and then I could look at analogues (I know there's an analogue list available but they tend to cut those off after a lot of historic 100-150 year storms, for which there are still maps available). I can see some similarity in the track evolution of this with the Blizzard of March 1888 but the heaviest snow with this could fall earlier in the cycle (meaning NJ instead of CT).

So 6" for the thread starter? (jk) That map looks very plausible to me, will see if 06z GFS changes my opinion.

What page might I find your map forecast for this event? I am holding off speculating until I see 06z GFS.

Not only comical but capping Baltimore at 12"?? I would say 16" is clearly on the table so that should read 1-16". These would be my over/under predictions at present (equal chances of being low or high) ... DCA 6" IAD 7" BWI 10" SBY 15" PHL 12" ACY 16" NYC 12" ISP 15" BOS 18"

That detail is probably shared by most guidance but the outbreak of moderate snow in KS is the main point, that is a good sign that phasing is underway and the energy is not currently that far behind the new location of the primary. It's a pressure jump situation for the primary but that factor alone is not telling me much because all guidance starts to develop the energy from the Carolinas.

I see tell-tale signs that GFS will win this battle. Moderate snow in Kansas is the signature of the phasing northern stream energy. The storm that tracked through southern UT-CO more or less died out as a dry weak circulation over nw TX and the primary low is developing further east now, around s AR, n/c MS into nw AL. If there's any model compromise it will be along the lines of 3:1 GFS:Euro. But it may be even better than that.

POST reserved for annual totals Below this, post your MARCH 2026 forecasts ...

<<< Preliminary scoring for February 2026 >>> Scores are based on latest posted end of month anomaly estimates in previous post. FORECASTER _________________ DCA_NYC_BOS _east_ ORD_ATL_IAH _cent _c/e_ _ DEN_PHX_SEA_west__TOTAL PositiveEPO Enjoyer _______ 00 _ 00 _ 14 __014_ 88 _ 90 _ 68 _246_ 260_ 30 _ 05 _ 96 __131____377 Scotty Lightning ___________ 10 _ 10 _ 20 __040_ 40 _ 50 _ 10 _ 100_ 140 _ 10 _ 20 _ 90 __120____260 ____ Normal ________________ 10 _ 10 _ 20 __040_ 40 _ 50 _ 10 _ 100_ 140_ 00 _ 00 _ 80 __080____220 BKViking ___________________50 _ 60 _ 70 __180_ 00 _ 30 _ 30 _060_ 240_ 13 _ 14 _ 96 __123____ 363 so_whats_happening ______ 54 _ 56 _ 70 __180_ 20 _ 42 _ 28 _090_ 270_ 21 _ 38 _ 88 __147 ____ 417 hudsonvalley21 ____________ 62 _ 68 _ 76 __206_ 00 _ 40 _ 16 _056_ 262_ 26 _ 32 _ 74 __132____ 394 wxallannj __________________ 70 _ 66 _ 72 __208_ 30 _ 26 _ 18 _074_ 282_ 20 _ 40 _ 90 __150____ 432 dmillz25 ___________________ 70 _ 70 _ 70 __210 _ 10 _ 50 _ 40 _100 _ 310_ 30 _ 60 _ 60 __150____ 460 ____ Consensus __________ 70 _ 70 _ 76 __216 _ 02 _ 30 _ 24 _056_ 272_ 21 _ 38 _ 80 __139____ 411 DonSutherland1 ___________ 70 _ 76 _ 86 __232_ 34 _ 20 _ 46 _100_ 332_ 70 _ 58 _ 48 __176____ 508 wxdude64 ________________ 78 _ 72 _ 86 __236_ 02 _ 32 _ 02 _036_ 272 _ 17 _ 38 _ 78 __133____ 405 Tom _______________________94 _100_ 88 __282_ 00 _ 00 _ 00 _000_ 282_ 38 _ 46 _ 46__130____ 412 RJay _______________________90 _ 90 _ 80 __260_ 00 _ 06 _ 70 _076_ 336_ 36 _ 50 _ 76 __162____ 498 Roger Smith _______________ 80 _ 70 _ 50 __200_ 00 _ 00 _ 00 _000_ 200_ 20 _ 30 _ 80 __130____ 330 RodneyS __________________ 20 _ 10 _ 02 __ 032_ 00 _ 00 _ 24 _024_ 056_ 29 _ 38 _ 96 __163____ 219 _____________________________________ Persistence (Jan 2026) ___ 94 _ 76 _ 58 __228_ 00 _ 48 _ 28 __076_ 304_ 27 _ 76 _ 92 __195____ 499 ============================== Note: Extreme forecasts will be worked out depending in part whether or not PositiveEPO Enjoyer enters March, an entry will remove "best of regulars" from consideration. This may also apply to max-60 scoring which might come into play for ORD (same considerations). At this point, DCA, NYC and BOS all sit outside the outcome for a win-loss, any outcomes where Roger Smith is high score will activate those, but otherwise not quite cold enough. (RodneyS would then take losses, seems out of reach now for an outright win) ORD seems likely to finish as a win for PositiveEPO Enjoyer, and if not an entrant for March, a win also credited to Scotty Lightning and Normal. ATL seems likely to finish as a win for PositiveEPO Enjoyer, and if not an entrant for March, a win also credited to Scotty Lightning, dmillz25, and Normal. IAH seems likely to finish as a win for RJay. DEN is very likely to finish as a win for DonSutherland1. PHX is likely to be a win for dmillz25. SEA currently would not qualify as an extreme forecast.

Are we sending the shortwaves correctly? I don't want to mess up this order.

I have posted a contest for this predicted snowfall event, using the five locations NYC, LGA, ISP, JFK, EWR. The deadline will be 0100h Sunday (06z 22nd).

Predict the snowfall totals for Feb 22 and 23 (as reported in CF6 documents) for the five local sites (NYC, LGA, ISP, JFK, EWR). Entries received after 0100h Sunday (06z 22nd) will not count and will not be scored. You may edit your original posts up to that deadline, I will not create a table of forecasts until 06z so I won't need any notification of edits made. By 07z I should have the table completed so any edits after that point will not count either. It would speed things up for me if you listed your five predictions in the order shown (NYC, LGA, ISP, JFK, EWR) but I will be on the lookout for predictions in a different order. Add any comments you want to add, about regional maximum values and amounts at other locations; these will have no bearing on contest scoring though. Forecasts to nearest tenth of an inch (storm total 22nd-23rd, any snow reported for 21st or 24th will not count towards contest). Forecasts in whole inches will be converted to decimal. Contest scoring will be done by an error-squared method to reward consistently good forecasts. If your errors were 1, 3, 2, 4, 6, your error squared total would be 1+9+4+16+36 = 66. As a secondary contest report value, I will also compare error totals (simple addition). We'll see if that makes any difference to the rankings. It usually does to some extent. The only tiebreaker will be best low error. If your total is the same as another entry, it goes to which entry has the lower maximum error (squared will be same as unsquared in this case). I may add some model predictions and NWS official forecasts if I can identify them accurately enough. Their rankings will not affect your rankings. Good luck. (note: it seems unlikely but in the event of a total event cancel over all guidance, the contest will be declared null and void before deadline)

If the GFS is right, almost everyone now in contention for the best forecast will be in the lead for five minutes and hand off to the next person. Only the last two forecasts in the table would have anything left to use up by the end of the storm. If a more conservative outcome is in play, the lead will change to somewhere near my entry. So I feel like I can't lose, either my contest improves, or I get to see the excitement of a major storm unfolding. Win-win.

Wow, I leave the keys to the weather machine on my desk, go to lunch, and now look at what's going on in here.

This has the feel of being one of those times where the GFS is on track and the other models will catch up. Not saying GFS is 100% correct but any sort of weighted compromise between it and various other guidance still gives a big outcome.

If you look carefully at the two maps, you can see a friendly dog (left) and a charging bull (right). Yes doctor I first had these thoughts at an earlier age (by ten seconds).

Was that last weekend? I always think of PD storms as being around Feb 20th and I am not that familiar with how various states celebrate the occasion. Will have to read up on it. Just finished reading up on it, apparently Washington's actual birthday adusted to the Gregorian calendar was Feb 22nd (1732) but the holiday falls on the third Monday in February in most states (not all). Lincoln's birthday was February 12th, 1809 So this storm could be labelled Washington's Birthday Blizzard although it won't likely start until the early morning of the next day. Anyway now I know a lot more about Presidents' Day, and apparently one of the few states that does not observe the holiday is Delaware.

Could this be designated PD-3 (or PD-III) if it proves to be a heavy snowstorm anywhere in the east coast region? Or would that happen after the fact only?

Have to say, seeing a near-perfect evolution running one degree south of optimal track at 96h is not really something to complain about by any means.

At the moment it's more like a shrapnel flesh wound cyclone.

The key to this getting back to being a major coastal storm seems to be in the handoff from the Colorado-New Mexico low which still has some structure, to the dying wave that drifts east through the Gulf states on Saturday. There is almost nothing left of the vorticity or energy at that point. So when it reaches a more favorable location it is basically starting from a very low energy point and doesn't really get going (on most guidance) until it is leaving the Delmarva coast. This at least gives some areas a snowfall event but to get a big storm this needs to be deepening over SC and NC not waiting until it's over the Atlantic. And even there, you could get a bigger event if there's a deeper 500 mb low to phase with it. I am moderately optimistic there is enough time left to see those sorts of improvements, the low is just approaching the California coast tonight and won't be inland until Thursday, won't be into southern Colorado until Friday. Usually when there's a big coastal event these southern lows have at least moderate intensity crossing the south central states so that's where to be looking for improvement, I believe.