Roger Smith

=== ::: [] <<<<<<< Annual Scoring for 2025 >>>>>>> [] ::: === Feb scores and annual totals are now adjusted FORECASTER _______________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH_cent_c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west__ TOTALS RodneyS _____________________ 184 _134 _148 __ 466 __ 128 _142 _112 __ 382 _ 848 __ 79 _124 _142 __ 345____1193 wxallannj _____________________154 _136 _158 __ 448 __ 166 _120 _134__ 420 _ 868 __126 _ 92 _ 99 __ 317 ____ 1185 ___ Consensus ______________ 172 _150 _136 __ 458 __154 _168 _124 __ 446 _ 904 _ 87 _ 76 _106 __ 269 ____1173 wxdude64 ____________________174 _168 _172 __ 514 __ 152 _ 138 _112 __ 402 _ 916 __103 _ 66 _ 82 __ 251 ____ 1167 Roger Smith __________________180 _190 _170 __ 540 __ 180 _136 _ 94 __ 410 _ 950 __60 _ 44 _ 93 __ 197 ____ 1147 BKViking _____________________ 144 _134 _116 __ 394 __ 182 _176 _119 __ 477 _ 871 __123 _ 52 _100 __ 275 ____ 1146 RJay __________________________156 _174 _160 __ 490 __166 _ 160 _ 93 __ 419 _ 909 __ 69 _ 24 _ 88 __ 181 ____ 1090 so_whats_happening _________142 _120 _100 __ 362 __ 88 _ 178 _107 __ 373 _ 735 __ 108 _ 80 _140__ 328 ____1063 Scotty Lightning _____________ 194 _144 _110 __ 448 __120 _ 96 _ 132 __ 348 _ 796 __ 65 _ 78 _ 76 __ 219 ____ 1015 hudsonvalley21 ______________ 140 _130 _128 __ 398 __ 94 _ 144 _117 __ 355 __ 753 __98 _ 66 _ 96 __ 260 ____1013 DonSutherland1 ______________ 122 _124 _126 __ 372 ___106 _150 _ 90 __ 346 _ 718 __69 _ 48 _110 __ 227 ____ 945 ___ Normal ____________________114 _134 _156 __ 404 __116 _ 36 __67 ___ 219 __ 623 __108 _100_ 86__ 294 ____ 917 Tom __________________________ 150 _114 _ 112 __ 376 __104 _104 _116 __ 324 __ 700 __100 _ 44 _ 58__ 202 ____902 StormchaserChuck ___________ 100 _ 68 _ 64 __ 232 __24 _ 148 _ 59__ 231 __ 463 ___57 _ 52 _ 81 __ 190 ____ 653 maxim (1/2) ___________________ 84 _ 80 _ 98 __ 262 __ 48 _ 58 _ 00 __ 106 __ 368 __ 10 _ 06 _ 55 __ 071 ____ 439 - - - - Persistence ___________________ 44 _134 _186 __ 364 ___ 98 _ 00 _ 00 __ 098 _ 462 __ 12 _ 00 _ 98 __ 110 ____ 572 ____________________________ _____ __ Best scores __ ^ incl tied for best score * incl 3 tied for best score ____________________________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH_cent_c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west__ TOTALS RodneyS ____________________0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 1* __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 1 ____ 1 _____ 0 wxallannj ___________________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 ___ Consensus _____________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 1 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 wxdude64 __________________ 0 __ 0 __ 1^___ 1 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 1 _ Jan Roger Smith ________________ 1^ __ 2^__ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___1 __ 1 * __ 0 __ 1 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 1 _ Feb BKViking ____________________0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 2 __ 1 ____ 1 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 RJay ________________________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 __ 0 __ 0 ___0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 so_whats_happening _______ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 1^__ 1^ __ 1 ___ 1 _____ 0 Scotty Lightning ____________ 2^__ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 1 ____0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 hudsonvalley21 _____________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 1* ___0 __ 0 ___ 1^__ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 Don Sutherland 1 ___________ 0 __ 1^__ 1^____ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 ___0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 1^__ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 ___ Normal __________________0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 Tom ________________________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 StormchaserChuck _________0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 maxim ______________________ 0 __ 0 __ 1^___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 ============================== Extreme forecasts So far, 10 of 18 ... 2 for warmest and 8 for coldest ... Jan 1-4, Feb 1-4 Forecaster _______________ Jan _ Feb ___ Total ___ adj for ties (*2 tied, ^3 tied) Roger Smith ______________ 0-0 _ 3-1 ___ 3-1 ___ 3.0 -1.0 Rodney S _________________ 2-1 _ 1*-0 __ 3-1 ____ 2.5 -1.0 so_whats_happening _____ 1*-0 _1*-0__ 2-0 ____ 1.0 -0.0 Scotty Lightning __________ 1-0 _ 0-0 ___ 1-0 ____ 1.0 -0.0 BKViking __________________ 0-0 _ 1-0 ___ 1-0 ____ 1.0-0.0 hudsonvalley21 ___________ 1*-0_ 0-0 ___ 1-0 ____0.5 -0.0 Don Sutherland ___________ 1^-0_ 0-0 ___ 1-0 ____0.33-0.0 wxdude64 ________________ 1^-0_ 0-0 ___ 1-0 ____0.33-0.0 maxim _____________________1^-0_ 0-0 ___ 1-0 ____0.33-0.0 Normal ___________________ 1-0 _ 0-1 ____ 1-1 ____ 1.0 -1.0 RJay, Tom, SC ____________ 0-0 _ 0-0 ___ 0-0 ========================================================= Four Seasons Winter 2024-2025 scoring 12 pts to winner, 10 down to 1 point for rest of field, and 1 point for all entrants at least 2/3. FORECASTER ________________ DEC _ JAN _ FEB ___ TOTAL _____ points BKViking _____________________659 __ 590 __ 556 ____ 1805 ___ 12 wxallannj _____________________615 __ 585 __ 600 ____ 1800 ___ 10 RJay _________________________ 613 __ 476 __ 614 ____ 1703 ____ 9 so_whats_happening ________ 599 __ 577 __ 486 ____ 1662 ____ 8 ___ Consensus ______________ 598 __ 585 __ 588 ____ 1771 ___ 9.7 wxdude64 ___________________ 486 __ 599 __ 568 ____ 1653 ____ 7 Roger Smith __________________470 __ 473 __ 674 ____ 1617 ____ 6 Don Sutherland1 ______________642 __ 531 __ 414 ____ 1587 ____ 5 Scotty Lightning _____________ 527 __ 485 __ 530 ____ 1542 ____ 4 hudsonvalley21 _______________519 __ 565 __ 448 ____ 1532 ____ 3 RodneyS _____________________ 295 __ 559 __ 634 ____ 1488 ____ 2 Tom __________________________ 515 __ 406 __ 496 ____ 1417 ____ 1 ___ Normal __________________ 470 __ 415 __ 502 ____ 1387 ____ 1 StormchaserChuck __________ 675 __ 289 __ 364 ____ 1328 ____ 1 ___________________________ Persistence ___________________202 __ 202 __ 370 _____ 774 ___ 1 ____________________________ maxim ___________________ --- __ 439 __ --- ____ 439 __ 0

It was June (5-6) 1816 when it snowed in New England after the April 1815 eruption of Tamboro volcano in (present day) Indonesia. Temperatures were 3 to 5 deg below normal even by averages back then, all around the northern hemisphere. The first few days of June 1945 were also exceptionally cold in eastern N America.

Texas temp range is presently 4F to 87F, near-blizzard in ne OK and e KS. Still needs the uppers to co-operate but the surface components are impressive. If only the upper low was not so flabby -- I need to pump you up.

Looks similar to mar 1-2 1980 incl record cold air mass.

18z nam is a weaker and more OTS evolution than 12z was.

What it looks like now ... raging blizzard across KS, ne OK, weak and undeveloped wave s.e. of DFW, tropical energy on low simmer in western Gulf. 500 mb low (529) developing slowly in larger upper trof n/c mN. It's a waste of a great set up to have such a flabby upper low, but if that starts to develop at any faster rate than the majority of guidance assumes, look out. It is the weak point, all the necessary surface ingredients are in place. I think it's like a 1 in 20 chance for significant development (n of 37N) and a 1 in 10 for last- minute partial development increasing snow potential from 0-2" to 2-5".

Final scoring for Feb 2025 based on end of month anomalies posted above ... raw scores for PHX ranged 00-23, so applying a fair range for max 60 rule, range was 20 to 60 in eleven steps (several ties intervened and last 4 steps also boosted +4 to keep pace w/differentials). These scores have ^ designations. FORECASTER ____________ DCA_NYC_BOS__ east __ ORD_ATL_IAH __ cent _ c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west __ TOTAL Roger Smith ________________86 _ 90 _ 88 __ 264 __ 98 _ 38 _ 92 __228 _492 _ 60 _ 44^_ 78 __ 182 ___ 674 RodneyS ___________________94 _ 66 _ 62 __ 222 __ 64 _ 68 _ 92 __224 _ 446 _ 46 _ 60^_ 82 __ 188 ___ 634 RJay _______________________ 80 _ 84 _ 78 __ 242 __ 68 _ 78 _ 78 __ 224 _ 466 _ 46 _ 24^_ 78 __ 148 ___ 614 wxallannj ___________________84 _ 56 _ 62 __ 202 __ 76 _ 54 _ 84 __ 214 _ 416 _ 76 _ 44^_ 64 __ 184 ___ 600 ___ Consensus ____________86 _ 54 _ 54 __ 194 __ 58 _ 70 _ 92 __ 220 _ 414 _ 54 _ 44^_ 76 __ 174 ___ 588 wxdude64 _________________90 _ 72 _ 74 __ 236 __ 58 _ 60 _ 74 __ 192 _ 428 _ 56 _ 32^_ 52 __ 140 ___ 568 BKViking __________________ 58 _ 38 _ 38 __ 134 __ 86 _ 78 _ 76 __240 _ 374 _ 90 _ 20^_ 72 __ 182 ___ 556 Scotty Lightning ___________100 _64 _ 68 __ 232 __ 58 _ 38 _ 72 __ 168 _ 400 _ 50 _ 52^_ 28 __ 130 ___ 530 ___ Normal _________________ 80 _ 84 _ 78 __ 242 __ 68 _ 18 _ 52 __ 138 _ 380 _ 70 _ 24^_ 28 __ 122 ___ 502 Tom ________________________98 _ 54 _ 48 __ 200 __ 34 _ 40 _ 68 __142 _ 342 _ 60 _ 44^_ 50 __ 154 ___ 496 so_whats_happening ______ 64 _ 32 _ 30 __ 126 __ 10 _ 98 _ 52 __160 _ 286 _ 48 _ 60^_ 92 __ 200 ___ 486 hudsonvalley21 ____________ 68 _ 46 _ 36 __ 150 __ 24 _ 70 _ 92 __186 _ 336 _ 38 _ 28^ _ 46 __ 112 ___ 448 DonSutherland1 ___________ 56 _ 24 _ 28 __ 108 __ 18 _ 78 _ 58 __ 154 _ 262 _ 34 _ 36^_ 82 __ 152 ___ 414 StormchaserChuck _______ 40 _ 06 _ 14 __ 060 __ 12 _ 66 _ 44 __ 122 _ 182 _ 52 _ 52^ _ 78 __ 182 ___ 364 ---- ---- Persistence __ (Jan 2025) __14 _ 66 _ 100 __ 180 __ 80 _ 00 _ 00 __ 080 _ 260 _ 12 _ 00 _ 98 __ 110 ___ 370 EXTREmE FORECAST REPORT NYC, BOS, ORD were wins for coldest forecasts (RSx3) DEN (-1.5) was a win for BKViking (-1.0) and a loss for RS (-3.5) PHX (+6.1) was a win for warmest forecasts (swh, RodneyS at +1.7) DCA, ATL, IAH , DEN, SEA did not qualify. ========================================================= (forecasts) FORECASTER ______________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA StormchaserChuck ________+4.0 _ +3.9 _ +3.2 __ +2.8 _ +5.8 _+5.2 __ +0.9 _ +1.0 _ -4.7 DonSutherland1 ___________ +3.2 _ +3.0 _ +2.5 __ +2.5 _ +5.2 _+4.5 __ +1.8 _ +0.5 _ -4.5 BKViking __________________ +3.1 _ +2.3 _ +2.0 ___ -0.9 _ +3.0 _ +1.2 __ -1.0 _ -0.1 __ -2.2 so_whats_happening ______+2.8 _ +2.6 _ +2.4 ___ +2.9 _+4.2 _ +4.8 __ +1.1 _ +1.7 _ -3.2 hudsonvalley21 ____________+2.6 _ +1.9 _ +2.1 ___ +2.2 _ +2.6 _ +2.0 __ +1.6 _ +0.2 _-0.9 wxallannj __________________ +1.8 _ +1.4 _ +0.8 ___ -0.4 _ +1.8 _ +1.6 __ -0.3 _ +0.7 _ -1.8 ___ Consensus ____________ +1.7 _ +1.5 _ +1.2 ___+0.5 _ +2.6 _+2.0 __+0.8_ +0.7 _-2.4 wxdude64 _________________ +1.5 _ +0.6 _ +0.2 ___+0.5 _ +2.1 _ +1.1 __ +0.7 _ +0.3 _ -1.2 RodneyS ___________________+1.3 _ +0.9 _ +0.8 __ +0.2 _ +2.5 _ +2.8 __ +1.2 _ +1.7 _ -4.5 Tom _______________________ +1.1 __ +1.5 _ +1.5 ___ +1.7 _ +1.1 __ +0.8 __ +0.5 _ +0.7 _ -1.1 Scotty Lightning ___________ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 ___ +0.5 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 __ +1.0 _ +1.0 __ 0.0 Roger Smith _______________ +0.3 _ -0.3 _ -0.5 ___ -1.7 __ +1.0 _ +2.0 __ -3.5 _ +0.7 _ -2.5 RJay ________________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 _ +3.0 _ +3.5 ___ +1.2 __0.0 _ -2.5 ___ Normal __________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 Persistence __ (Jan 2025) __ -3.3 _ -2.5 _ -1.1 _____ -2.6 _ -4.1 _ -4.4 ___ -5.9 _ -1.2 _ -3.7 ============================= [] =============================

Anomalies and projections after 15 and 22 days ... ____________________________DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ___ (anom 1-15) ___________+1.6 _ -1.0 _ -2.1 ___ +0.6 _ +9.6 _ +10.8 __ -0.9 _ +5.9 _ -9.5 ___ (anom 1-22) ___________-1.0 _ -3.2 _ -3.5 ___ -4.8 _ +3.4 _ +2.8 ___ -5.1 _ +5.3 _ -5.7 16 (p anom 1-28) __________-1.5 _ -3.0 _ -3.5 ___ -3.0 _ +4.0 _ +5.0 ___ -0.5 _ +3.0 _ -6.0 23 (p anom 1-28) __________+0.5 _ -2.0 _ -2.5 __ -3.0 _ +4.5 _ +4.5 ___ -0.5 _ +4.0 _ -3.5 final anomalies _____________+1.0 _ -0.8 _ -1.1 ___ -1.6 _ +4.1 _ +2.4 ____ -1.5 _ +6.1 _ -3.6 (Feb 16) _Very cold for next week in eastern and central regions, more variable later. Staying warm in s.w. and cold in n.w. ... will post preliminary scoring for Feb later. DEN will likely fall to -4 but I expect it will recover most or all by Feb 28. (Feb 23) _ Rather warm to end Feb in all regions, will adjust projections and preliminary scoring. (end) _ Late surge of warm temps drove scoring up.

I posted earlier in thread downtown Toronto's recent snow depth record was 65 cm Jan 15, 1999 after three significant snowfalls in two weeks. That is same as today's value as reported above. I also mentioned Feb 1846 with indications of 30-35 in on ground from approx 40" of snow in eleven days Feb 11-21. There were no snow depth records kept back then.

Surface winds are draining cold air under an inversion at around 3,000' above sea level. Variable winds will likely continue to around noon or early afternoon. NYC is in a sort of dead zone between a leading wave now over NE and the primary low in eastern Ohio. By early afternoon the primary will be near Albany and a coastal low will develop over NYC so I would expect 55-60 F air in warm sector to reach central NJ and fog-laden 47 to 50 F saturated air mass trapped between two fronts over lower hudson valley and LI, NYC, expect a thunderstorm or two in the region followed by partial clearing and strong westerly winds by 3 p.m. -- temps will then fall rapidly.

Looking at all aspects of this developing east coast low, there appears to be wide variability left in play with over 96h to go, therefore I believe a considerable change in final appearance is likely. Whether that works in favor of a larger snowfall event or a totally OTS ending cannot be known yet. One way back to a better event (for DC-BAL) is a deeper 500 low, at present it only drops to 528 which is probably too weak to draw the low into a phase before 70W. If that trends stronger, this can be salvaged.

Room for improvement, but what we see now is only 100-150 miles s.e. of a very big hit with 108 hours to go ... and the upper components probably need less work than surface ... this could still go either way.

First call 1-30 region-wide.

If Jerry Seinfeld was a weatherman he would say, "the average of all guidance is better than any part of the guidance." And Kramer would look startled, then enlightened.

It was probably about what everyone was thinking anyway, from reading the discussion, but I do see a high impact event in parts of MI and ON, if it would intensify faster then IL and IN also. Another analogue might be Apr 2-3, 1975 which was a very high impact snowstorm north of Toronto, due to a 15" storm snowfall being followed by 15" of Georgian Bay lake effect and 50 mph winds. People were stranded for up to a week after that one (despite the late date it was frigid air coming across the Great Lakes and daytime highs below 20 F). I remember that because I was living in the region when it hit, and it was entirely underpredicted at the time.

I suspect this storm will be slow to intensify to full potential but when it does (after 18z) it will begin to create bands of heavy snowfall across most of s ON and se MI, nw OH giving many in those regions 12-15" totals and possibly up to 20" with lake enhancement. There will be some backbuilding as a result of the intensification process and this will help Chicago keep adding with better rates developing, to reach 7 or 8 inches. Given the rush of very cold air around the low as it departs, dangerous lake effect blizzard conditions can be expected in parts of sw Ontario and w NY, and it will also be a significant lake effect snow producer for w MI with more localized blizzard conditions as a result (near GRR in particular). Some parts of the Lake Huron snowbelt could see impassable roads for 2-3 days after this storm winds down. One analogue for the storm (Feb 25, 1965) gave Wiarton ON four feet of snow (generally it was 15-20 inches across s.w. ON). It may seem like it's starting off rather feebly perhaps, but my guess is that it will become a powerful storm around the time it's near FWA to TOL. Will give a specific forecast for DTW, 13.5" and TOL could see 16" due to lake enhancement. CLE is going to get a mixture of snow, sleet and ice pellets with thunder-snow likely to develop over Lake Erie and Lake Ontario regions. Western Lake Ontario could see even more due to lake enhancement but Toronto region in general will see 12 to 16 inches. I don't think it will mix very much as cold air is going to clamp around the low center during the development phase. There won't be much of a coastal transfer until beyond a BTV-BOS axis so only VT, NH and ME are likely to see significant snowfalls apart from a brief interval before the low reaches Ohio, 1-3" will be common inland northeast, but predicting 15-20" in BTV and Montreal.

Toronto (downtown) greatest snow depth in modern times is probably 65 cm on Jan 15, 1999, following 38 cm snow 2nd, 21 cm 12th and 29 cm 14-15th. No snow depth is available in older records but march 1870 and Feb 1846 may have had similar conditions. In Feb 1846 (measured in inches) Feb 11-12 9.0", Feb 15-16 12.0", 17-18 2.5" and 20-21 added 22.0" ... temps were generally below freezing so the total snowfall of 44.5" must have been at least 3/4 on the ground at end of the snowy period. It was followed by record cold Feb 26-28 (lows of -12, -16 and -17 F) and it stayed cold in march although with very little additional snow.

I don't see a path to a win needing 5" at BWI, 3.5" at IAD, and no snow at DCA (or RIC), that would be a tough ask. This is what I get for relying on DCA slant stick. Also, Arlwx12 will stay in front as far as any BWI snow is concerned with a 4.3" deficit, (I can tie at 5.0 or above, if IAD stays in my favor (arlwx12 is at 4.5" so as soon as IAD goes past 3.5" that possible tie is broken). It looks like high stakes and deck pic are in a very good position too, with 3" and 2.1" left to use at RIC, so they can easily pass me and arlwx12 as each 0.1" to 3.0" at RIC is a -0.2" differential for us before deficits are spent. There are others needing less snow at all locations, in 1-3" range, who will stay ahead of all of the above if that's all that we get now to ?? Apr. And a bigger fall than 5" will open it up for lots of larger forecasts. I figure on one 3-5" event and we're done. It will likely go very warm by mid to late march. even so, 1993? Feb 1993 was frigid in Great Lakes region as I recall living in Ontario.

Above belongs in the other thread -- for the next event, it's looking like 12-15" in Toronto , and possibly 15-20 in Niagara also ROC.

IAH was +15.7 for Feb 1-10, dry; 1.60" rain fell on Feb 11, still a +8 dep, so will be close to +14 for Feb 1-11. DEN was also warm at first but 11th was very cold, anomaly will be close to zero in a day or two. Will update snowfall contest totals in a few days as snow will be falling at a few locations again today and tomorrow.

Wondering if there could be a narrow band of heavy snow tonight-Wed similar to what happened last winter? Focus would be the secondary arctic front stalling south of EWR-JFK.

When was the snowstorm event in n/c VA that stranded people on I-95 for a day or so? I recall it being in early Jan was it 2022? This could be similar?

CAD has excellent resistance to 12z and 850-700 frontogenesis looks good for a gradual northward drift of heavy snow axis, it briefly reaches as far north as near DCA-10sBWI before drifting back south as precip rates drop. 10-12" snow potential in a narrow stripe 10-30 s of DCA-BWI, 7-10" for DCA-10sBWI, 4-7" IAD-10nBWI, 2-5" s PA to cNJ.

They are real, and they are SPECTACuLAR.

Note: IAD added 0.1" Sat and is now 10.7"