Roger Smith

Looks to be in the zone where eastern eyewall might just clear him for moments, or he may stay in the eyewall without a clearance, center of eye track likely to be 10 to 15 miles west; as you know this means he is going to see the strongest winds and the surge there will likely be at its max also, think he may be above that but only just.

Looking at google earth there are very few settlements inland along the track this seems most likely to take, which is approximately White House to Falmouth. The terrain rises to about 3000' but a large portion of the interior is an area known as the Cockpits which are limestone depressions and karst topography, there are perhaps a thousand people at most living in the 40-mile wide stretch where core conditions will come and go, then the exit over Falmouth by which time possibly the intensity will be down to cat-3. It's very close to Montego Bay but they will probably have the slightly less violent western eyewall or just outside of that, on the current track. Josh is located hopefully inland as Crawford seems to consist of two parts, one on the inland highway and one being a housing development closer to the ocean. Even at the inland road the elevation is only about 10 meters. It looks to be a wooded area with better construction than some parts of rural Jamaica. The larger town of Black River is a few miles east of Crawford, and Santa Cruz inland may be in the forward eyewall. Those places are facing considerable if not total destruction; this small hurricane intense core situation reminds me of Andrew when it devastated portions of Homestead FL in 1992, as people have been commenting, F5 tornado conditions are being reported in the eyewall. As bad as this is going to be, there were worse possible tracks in terms of total damage potential and consequent human tolls, 25-50 miles west would have been a lot worse, and 50-75 miles east would have brought these peak conditions into the greater Kingston area where I would imagine it's pretty rough but will perhaps peak at cat-2 intensity or less.

I was looking at some details of Jamaica's population and geography, would say if they have to take a hit from the core of this hurricane, the central third is perhaps less populated than the western third and certainly less than the eastern third. There is a central bisecting track that might spare Montego Bay, Negril and Savanna-la-Mar from worst case wind and surge damage, while keeping Kingston also out of the core. If it does go a bit further west and makes landfall around Savanna-la-Mar, unlike most of the south coast as well as west to northwest coasts, the land around there is very flat for miles inland. The town is on a peninsula that rarely rises above 5 metres asl. Negril is a bit more hilly and most of the town is well above surge limits (also the exposure is not as conducive to a major surge). There are parts of the south coast that are quite rugged and uninhabited, there are small towns across most of the inland south but the total population looks to be perhaps 5% of the total of Jamaica if the core were to take that track. The western third is a little hilly and the central third more so, but those higher Blue Mountains are all to the northeast of Kingston. I would not want to be anywhere near this monster storm but Josh does, anyone know where he chose to set up?

175 mph = 288 km/hr = 288,000 m/ hr = 200 m/sec = 100 m in half a second. Took Usain Bolt 9.6 seconds to run that far.

This may be how the Great Red Spot formed.

Another interval not fitting too well would be 1953-54 with numerous major hurricanes (even if not cat 5) at a solar minimum. By 1955 it was early stages of an eventual very large solar maximum.

True, my comments were only for the N Atlantic seasons.

The anti-correlation idea may have come from 2004-05 which does not fit the theory. I noted in the hurricane Melissa discussion that 1780, a very bad year in the Caribbean, was also two years after a large solar peak in 1778, and the Long Island express (1938) while not a cat-5 was a year after a solar peak. Rather active years that came before a solar peak would include 1916, 1936, 1944 and 1998, as well as 2020. 1887 is closer to a solar minimum like 2004 and 2005. 1893 was a very active tropical year and there was a solar peak in 1893-94. The least active season in recent times, 1910, came at a solar minimum. I would include Andrew on the basis of the 1989 cycle peaking rather broadly from 1988 to 1991, the "1989" designation is only barely valid, and in fact also the 1968 peak had a very well defined secondary peak in 1972 (Agnes). Perhaps if there is a correlation, it is not because the solar conditions induce stronger hurricanes to form, but because some mechanism in the solar system peaks at that time and is responsible for these two different effects. Clearly it is not a necessary condition given the number of counter-examples. But it seems relatively robust over about twenty solar cycles, before 1780 we probably don't have enough data to form any conclusions.

Savanna-la-Mar was apparently destroyed by a major hurricane in 1780 (a 20 foot tidal surge), the worst season on record especially for the Caribbean. There were thousands killed in western Jamaica and at sea. And that was also a year on the downswing of a solar cycle (peak was 1778). Speaking of that, I would include Andrew (1992) because the 1989 peak had a secondary peak in 1991, and also Agnes (1972) fits because of a large secondary peak in 1972. One could also mention the 1938 New England Long Island express (solar cycle peaked 1937).

Contest scoring for Current Count of 13 5 4 and Scores after potential storm 14 _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ errors to date __ points deducted _ TOTAL SCORE Rank _FORECASTER (order of entry)_______TS _ H _ M _ errors (scoring) _ 13 5 4 (alt 14 5 4, 14 6 4, 14 6 5) _01 __ Retrobuc (11) __________________________1 __ 1 _ 1 ___-0.5_ -1 _ -1 ____97.5 _ (98, 99, 97) _02 __ StormchaserChuck (23) ______________0 __ 2 _ 0 ___ 0 __-3 _ 0 ___ 97 __ (96.5, 98.5, 97.5) _03 __ cardinalland (14) _____________________ 2 __ 1 _ 1 ___-1.5 _-1 _-1 ____ 96.5 _ (97.5, 98.5, 96.5) _04 __ vpbob21 (19) __________________________2 __ 2 _ 0___-1.5_-3_ 0 _____95.5 _ (96.5, 98.5, 97.5) _05 __ ineedsnow (2) ________________________ 2 __ 2 _ 1___-1.5_-3 _-1 ____ 94.5 _ (95.5, 97.5, 95.5) _06 __ Hotair (26) ____________________________ 2 __ 1 _ 2 __ -1.5 _-1 _-3 ___ 94.5 (93, 91, 88) _07 __ LongBeachSurfFreak (4) ______________ 1 __ 3 _ 0 ___-0.5_ -6 _0 ___ 93.5 _ (94, 97, 96) _08 __ Newman (15) _________________________ 3 __ 2 _ 1___ -3 _-3 _-1 _____ 93 _ (94.5, 96.5, 94.5) _09 __ cnimbus (6) __________________________ 4 __ 2 _ 0___ -5_ -3 _ 0 _____92 _ (94, 96, 95) _10 __ FPizz (9) ______________________________ 4 __ 2 _ 0___ -5_ -3 _ 0 _____92 _ (94, 96, 95) _11 __ LakeNormanStormin (7) _______________ 3 __ 3 _ 0___ -3_ -6 _ 0 ____ 91 _ (92.5, 95.5, 94.5) _12 __ Floydbuster (12) _______________________ 3 __ 3 _ 0___ -3_ -6 _ 0 ____ 91 _ (92.5, 95.5, 94.5) _13 __ WxWatcher007 (25) ___________________ 3 __ 3 _ 0___ -3_ -6 _ 0 ____ 91 _ (92.5, 95.5, 94.5) _14 __ wxdude64 (28) ________________________ 4 __ 2 _ 1___ -5_ -3_ -1 _____ 91 _ (93, 95, 93) ___ NOAA _____________________________________3 __ 3 _ 0___ -3_ -6 _ 0 ____ 91 _ (92.5, 95.5, 94.5) _15 __ Kirkcaldy Weather (NW-6) _____________ 1 __ 4 _ 0 ___-0.5_-10_ 0 ___ 89.5 (88.5, 92.5, 91.5) _16 __ BarryStantonGBP (1) ___________________ 4 __ 3 _ 0___ -5_ -6_ 0 ____ 89 _ (91, 94, 93) _17 __ wxallannj (21) __________________________ 4 __ 3 _ 0___ -5_ -6_ 0 ____ 89 _ (91, 94, 93) _18 __ jmearroz (31) __________________________ 4 __ 3 _ 0 ___ -5_ -6_ 0 ____ 89 _ (91, 94, 93) _19 __ George BM (35) ________________________4 __ 3 _ 0 ___ -5_ -6_ 0 ____ 89 _ (91, 94, 93) _20 __ Kaari (NW-7) __________________________ 4 __ 3 _ 0 ___ -5_ -6_ 0 ____ 89 _ (91, 94, 93) _21 __ marsman (14) __________________________ 6 __ 0 _ 1___-10.5 _ 0 _-1____88.5 _ (91.5, 90.5, 88.5) _22 __ Ga Wx (20) ____________________________ 1 __ 4 _ 1 ___-0.5_-10 _-1___ 88.5 _ (89, 93, 91) _23 __ Normandy Ho (30) ____________________ 4 __ 3 _ 1___ -5_ -6_ -1 ____ 88 _ (90, 93, 94) _24 __ BKViking (29) _________________________ 3 __ 4 _ 0___ -3_-10_ 0 ____ 87 _ (88.5, 92.5, 91.5) ___ UKMO ____________________________________ 3 __ 4 _ 0___ -3_-10_ 0 ____ 87 _ (88.5, 92.5, 91.5) _25 __ jconsor (3) ____________________________ 3 __ 4 _ 1___ -3_-10_-1 ____ 86 _ (87.5, 91.5, 92.5) _26 __ Torch Tiger (17) _______________________ 4 __ 4 _ 0___ -5_-10_ 0 ____ 85 _ (87, 91, 90) _27 __ yoda (22) ______________________________ 4 __ 4 _ 0___ -5_-10_ 0 ____ 85 _ (87, 91, 90) ___ consensus __ (median) ____________________ 4 __ 4 _ 0___ -5_-10_ 0 ____ 85 _ (87, 91, 90) _28 __ NeffsvilleWx (10) _______________________ 6 __ 3 _ 1___-10.5_-6_-1 ___ 82.5_ (85.5, 88.5, 89.5) _29 __ Yanksfan (8) ____________________________5 __ 4 _ 0___-7.5_-10_ 0 ___ 82.5 _ (85, 89, 88) _30 __ nvck (32) _______________________________ 5 __ 4 _ 0___-7.5_-10_ 0 ___ 82.5 _ (85, 89, 88) _31 __ NC USGS^ (33) __________________________1 __ 5 _ 2 ___-0.5_-15_-3 ___ 81.5 _ (82, 87, 84) _32 __ hudsonvalley21 (34) ____________________ 5 __ 4 _ 1___-7.5_-10_-1 ____ 81.5 _ (84, 88, 89) _33 __ Rhino16 (24) ____________________________ 5 __ 5 _ 0___-7.5_-15_ 0 ___ 77.5 _ (80, 85, 84) _34 __ ldub23 (5) ______________________________ 5 __ 5 _ 1___-7.5_-15_-1 ___ 76.5 _ (79, 84, 85) _35 __ Midlands Ice Age (NW-2, 14) ___________ 5 __ 5 _ 1___-7.5_-15_ -1 ___ 76.5 _ (79, 84, 82) _36 __ The Tall Weatherman (NW-5) __________ 7 __ 4 _ 1___-14 _-10 _-1 ___ 75 _ (78.5, 82.5, 83.5) _37 __ Tallis Rockwell (18) _____________________ 4 __ 6 _ 1___ -5_-21 _-1 ____ 73 _ (75, 81, 82) _38 __ CHSVol (13) ____________________________ 7 __ 5 _ 0___-14 _-15_ 0 ___ 71 _ (74.5, 79.5, 78.5) _39 __ Metwatch (NW-1, 13) ___________________ 8 __ 5 _ 0 __-18 _-15 _ 0 ___ 67 _ (71, 76, 75) _40 __ WYorksWeather (NW-4) ________________4 __ 7 _ 2___ -5_-28 _-3 ___ 64 _ (66, 73, 75) _41 __ Roger Smith (27) ________________________ 7 __ 6 _ 1___-14 _-21 _ -1 ___64 _ (67.5, 73.5, 71.5) _42 __ matty40s (NW-3) _______________________ 9 __ 6 _ 2 __-22.5_-21_-3__ 53.5 _ (58, 64, 66) ================= (errors in red are forecasts already passed by actual count; these errors can increase) (three alternate scores are for potential named storm 14, for outcomes of only TS, only H, and MH) (order of entry breaks ties in total score) mean now required (excl expert fcsts) is 3.8 _ 2.3 _ 0.0 = 100 -4.5 -3.8 -0 = 91.7 _ (93.6, 96.1, 95.1) ^ ... NC US Geological Survice is full user i.d.

Count is now 13 5 4 (edit 03z Oct 26) This score and three alternates for a 14th named storm (S, H, M) later are now in the table above. After November 1st there will be a table of scoring in rank order, adjusted to end of contest year (end of 2025).

Above, you will find October scoring estimates to be finalized by November 1st, as well as the updated annual scoring with some adjustments yet to come for October. In general the scoring for October was over a rather narrow range and ranks only changed at the bottom of the table. RodneyS has the highest score for the month at current estimates and while we are both a long way back of the leaders, RodneyS and I are locked in a close battle for the extreme forecast award with Scotty Lightning not far behind us. Normal is also doing better than most of the forecasters at hitting extreme (cold) forecasts but overall in points, Normal is now close to Persistence and behind all forecasters (after pro-rating scores for those without a full set of forecasts). Our consensus is basically tied with Tom at the top of the scoring table (one point currently separates them). Below, please post your November forecasts ... ...

=== ::: [] <<<<<< Annual Scoring for Jan-Oct 2025 >>>>>> [] ::: === FORECASTER _____DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH _ cent _ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA__west __TOTALS Tom __________________ 665 _710 _776 __2151 __624 _648 _696__1968 _4119 __762 _754 _764__2280__6399 ___ Consensus ______ 637 _694 _736_ 2067 __630 _714 _698_ 2042 _4109__701_760_822_2283 __6392 hudsonvalley21 _______603 _692 _764 __2059 __576 _680 _699 __1955 _4014 __734 _714 _824__2272___6286 so_whats_happening __673 _728 _712 __2113 __638 _720 _633__ 1991 __4104 __686 _680 _784__2150___6254 Scotty Lightning ______658 _ 748 _706 __2112__525 _622 _700 __1847 _3959 __ 669 _790 _778__2237___6196 DonSutherland1 ______ 569 _638 _706 __1913 __634 _688 _632__ 1954 _3867 __729 _682 _776__2187___6054 RJay _________________ 570 _683 _ 721 __ 1974 __660 _734 _694__2088 _4062 __621 _633 _721 __1975___6037 wxallannj _____________ 559 _618 _674 __1851 __572 _644 _680__ 1896 _3747 __ 706 _750 _761 __2217___5964 RodneyS _____________ 640 _638 _728__2006__488 _558 _652__1698 _3704 __ 645 _686 _894__2225___5929 wxdude64 ____________574 _640 _634__1848 __444_ 632 _606__1682 _3530 __697 _724 _760__2181___ 5711 Roger Smith __________ 518 _616 _640 __1774 __640 _626 _674__1940 _3714 __540 _682 _739__ 1961___5675 StormchaserChuck ___585 _624 _662 __1871 __482 _682 _ 587__1751 _ 3622 __667 _698 _687__2052___5674 ___ Normal ____________618 _664 _654 __1936 __476 _460 _421__1357__3293 __700 _628 _756__2084__5377 BKViking (8/10) ______ 424 _481 _537 __1442 __430 _582 _464__1476 _2918 __548 _578 _571__1697__4615 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - prorated total __5769 Yoda _(3/10) ___________148 _194 _204 __ 546 __ 192 _ 202 _ 240 __ 634 _1180 __246 _228 _252 __ 726 __1906 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- prorated total __6177 maxim (2/10) __________ 180 _ 152 _164 __ 496 ___ 96_ 120 _ 082 __298__ 794 __92 _ 90 _ 135__ 317 ____ 1111 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - prorated total __5555 Ephesians2 _ (1/10) ____ 04 _ 36 _ 62 __ 102 ___ 74 _ 46 _ 88 _ 208 ___ 310 _ 72 _ 92 _100 ___ 264 _____ 574 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - prorated total __5740 Persistence ___________414 _514 _646 __1574 ___364 _420 _606 _1390 _2964__520 _560 _696 __1776 ___4740 __ Best scores __ (including Oct subject to change) ^ incl tied for best score * incl 3 - 5 tied for best score ____________________ DCA_NYC_BOS_east_ORD_ATL_IAH_cent__c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west__TOTALS ___ Consensus _______ 2*__ 0 __ 0 ___0 ___0 __0 ___ 1 __ 0 __ 0 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 1___ 0___ 0 Tom ___________________2 *__ 1^ _ 3^ __ 1 ___ 2 ___2^ __2^___1 ___1 ___ 0 __ 2 ___2^___2 ___2 __ Mar,Jun hudsonvalley21 ________ 1 *__ 2^__2 ___1 ___ 1 __ 1 __ 2^ ___0 __ 0 ___2^^__ 1 __ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 so_whats_happening __ 1 *__ 1 __ 0 ___0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___ 2^__ 2^^ _1 ___ 2 ___0 Scotty Lightning _______ 3^*__1^__ 1^___0 ___ 0 __1^__ 3 ___ 0 __0 ___ 0 __ 3*___1 ___1 ____1 _Sep(t) Don Sutherland 1 _______1 *__ 1^__ 1*__ 0 ___ 0 __1 ___0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 1 __ 1^ __ 0 ___0 ___ 0 RJay ___________________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___0 ___ 2^__1^__ 2^^__3 __ 0 ___ 1^__ 1*__ 2^^__0___ 0 wxallannj _______________1 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 1^ __ 1^__0 ___0 ____0 RodneyS _______________ 2 __ 1 __ 2^ __ 2 ___ 2 __ 2^ __1^ __ 3 ___3 ___1 __ 1 ___ 4^___1 ____3 _ May,Aug,Oct wxdude64 _____________ 1 __ 3^__ 1*___2 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 2 ___0 __0___ 0 ____1 _ Jan Roger Smith ____________1^ __3^^__2^ __2 ___3 ___3^^__3^^__1___2 ___1^__ 2^__ 0 ___1 ____3 _ Feb,Jul,Sep(t) StormchaserChuck _____1 __ 1^__ 1 ____2 ___ 1^__ 1 ___1 ___ 0 ___1 ___ 0 ___0 __ 2^^__1 ____0 _Apr BKViking _______________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___0 ___ 0 __ 1 ___0 ___ 2 __ 1 ____1 ___2^*__0___0___0 ___ Normal ______________2 __ 2 ___0 ___0 ___ 1 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __0 ___ 2 __ 1 __ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 maxim __________________ 1 __ 0 __ 1* ___0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __0 ___1 ___ 1 __ 0 ___1 ___ 0 Ephesians2 ______________0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 1 ___ 0 __ 0 ___0 ___0 __ 1 __ 0 __ 0 ============================== (tie for Consensus or Normal is not a tie for forecaster(s)) Extreme forecasts _ updated for Oct (subject to adjustments) So far, 51 of 90 ... 25 for warmest and 26 for coldest ... Jan 1-4, Feb 1-4, Mar 5-0, Apr 6-0, May 2-6, Jun 1-1, Jul 1-1, Aug 1-6, Sep 5-1, Oct 2-3. (table scoring order is by adjusted totals for ties) Forecaster ____________ Jan _Feb _Mar _Apr _May _Jun_Jul _Aug _Sep _Oct __ Total___adj for ties (*2 tied, ^3 tied) Rodney S ______________ 2-1 _1*-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _3*0 _0-1_0-0 _4-0 _1-0 _1-1 ___ 12-3 ___11.0 - 3.0 Roger Smith ___________ 0-0 _3-1 _ 0-1 _ 1*0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _1*-0_1*-0_4^-0_0-0 __ 12-2___ 8.0 - 2.0 ___ Normal _____________ 1-0 _0-1 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 __ 2-0 _0-1 _1-0 __2-0 _1-0 _ 2-0 __ 9-2 ___ 9.0 - 2.0 Scotty Lightning _______ 1-0 _0-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0_0-0_ 0-1 _3^-0_ 0-0 ___8-1 ____6.5 - 1.0 Stormchaser Chuck ____ 0-0 _0-0 _0-1 _ 4*-2 _0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _0-0_1*-0 __5-3 ____ 4.0 - 3.0 hudsonvalley21 _________1*-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _ 2-0 _ 1-1 _ 0-0_ 0-0 _0-0 _0-0_2 *-0__6-1 ___ 5.0 - 0.0 wxdude64 ______________1^-0_ 0-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0_0-0 __1-0 _0-1 _ 2*-0___5-1 ____3.83-1.0 Tom ____________________0-0 _0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 2*0 _ 0-0_0-0 _0-0_1*-0 _ 0-0 __4-0 ___3.0 - 0.0 RJay ____________________0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _2**-0_0-0 _ 0-0_1 *-0_0-0_1*-0_1*-0__ 5-0 ___ 2.5-0.0 maxim __________________1^-0_0-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _ 0-0_ 0-0 __3-0 ___2.33-0.0 so_whats_happening ___ 1*-0 _1*-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 __0-0_1-0 __0-0 _0-0_0-0 __3-0 ___ 2.0 - 0.0 Ephesians2 _____________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _0-0_ 0-0_1-1 __1-1 ___ 1.0 - 1.0 Don Sutherland _________1^-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0_0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _0-1 __2-1 ____1.33-1.0 BKViking _______________ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _0-0 __1-0 ____1.0 - 0.0 wxallannj _______________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _1*-0_0-0_0-0 __1-0 ___ 0.5 - 0.0 ^ (note: For Sep wins, Roger Smith and Scotty Lightning tied three, not shown by * symbols but calculated into adjusted scores) =========================================================

I was thinking about 1998 and the only thing about that tropical season that I recall is Mitch at the end of the season. Now we're looking at a pretty uneventful season in general ending with Melissa which could become a high impact storm for Jamaica, eastern Cuba and or Haiti.

Yes I see this new intensity forecast so I will edit the potential scoring to provide a look at possible 4 major outcomes too.

Melissa has arrived, and the scoring table has been revised again. It now has three potential alternative scores for these possible outcomes: After the scoring on current 13 4 3 ... second column is for Melissa becoming a hurricane. Third column is for a 14th named storm occurring after Melissa, in the event Melissa fails to achieve hurricane status, and also the 14th storm does not reach H. Fourth column is for a 14th named storm and either Melissa became a hurricane or the 14th storm does so. There are notes to explain how to derive other estimates not shown in the table, such as two more hurricanes out of those two storms, and/or one hurricane becoming major. Contest situation is interesting in that about a dozen forecasts stand some chance of winning at this point. If we get a November like 1887, even more would be in the running (I think there were three or four named storms and two were hurricanes in that distant season). The highest I could imagine this count going now is probably 16 6 4, the most likely outcome is 14 5 3.

____ Final scoring estimates for October 2025 ____ Scores are based on final second set of end of month anomaly reports in previous post. FORECASTER __________DCA_NYC_BOS_ east _ORD_ATL_IAH_ cent _ c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA_west__TOTAL RodneyS _______________ 88 _ 78 _100 _266 _ 94 _ 86 _ 76 _ 256 _522 _ 84 _ 94 _72 _250__772 Tom ____________________ 60 _ 80 _100 _240 _ 74 _ 96 _ 38 _ 208 _448 _ 76 _ 96 _ 80 _252 __700 hudsonvalley21 _________48 _ 70 _ 90 _208 _ 82 _ 98 _ 52 _ 232 _440 _94 _ 80 _ 86 _260 __700 ___ Consensus _________48 _68 _ 86 _ 202 _ 86 _ 92 _ 54 _232 _434 _78 _ 96 _ 80 _254 __ 688 yoda ___________________ 54 _ 84 _ 94 _232 _ 68 _ 92 _ 52 _ 212 _444 _ 78 _ 80 _ 84 _242 __ 686 so_whats_happening ___ 50 _ 66 _ 84 _200 _ 88 _ 94 _ 58 _ 240 _440 _ 80 _98_ 58 _236 __ 676 BKViking _______________ 58 _ 78 _ 98 _234 _ 52 _ 96 _ 40 _ 188 _422 _ 72 _ 98_ 74 _244 __ 666 wxallannj _______________ 44 _ 64 _ 82 _190 _ 58 _ 90 _ 62 _ 210 _400_ 72 _ 96 _ 82 _250 __ 650 Scotty Lightning ________60 _ 92 _ 88 _240 _ 38 _ 96 _ 36 _ 170 _ 410 _ 72 _ 88 _ 80 _ 240 __650 DonSutherland1 ________ 40 _ 60 _ 82 _182 _ 74 _ 92 _ 50 _ 216 _398 _ 84 _ 66 _ 86 _236 __634 RJay ___________________ 30 _ 42 _ 62 _134 _ 72 _ 86 _ 56 _214 _ 348 _ 92_ 82 _ 90 _264 __ 612 ___ Normal _____________ 90 _ 88 _ 68 _ 246 _ 18 _ 74 _ 16 __108 _354 _ 52 _ 82 _ 90 _224 __578 wxdude64 ______________78 _ 98 _ 74 _250 _ 14 _ 90 _ 26 _ 130 _380 _ 44 _ 78 _ 76 _ 198 __578 Ephesians2 ____________ 04 _ 36 _ 62 _102 _ 74 _ 46 _88 _208 _310_ 72 _ 92 _100 _264 __ 574 StormchaserChuck1 ___ 26 _ 42 _ 62 _130 _ 68 _ 68 _ 66 _202 _332_ 62 _ 86 _ 90 _238 __ 570 Roger Smith ___________ 20 _ 32 _ 46 _098 _ 78 _ 56 _86_ 220 _318 _ 92 _ 78 _ 66 _236 __ 554 _______________ ___ Persistence __(Sep) _ 94 _ 84 _ 86_ 264 _ 78 _ 76 _ 40 _194 _458 _50 _ 98_ 60 _208 __ 666 =================== EXTREME FORECASTS (for the benefit of new forecasters, an extreme forecast is awarded when either most extreme or second most extreme forecast takes high score. Also, by contest convention, forecasters with fewer than three forecasts in a given year are eligible for these extreme forecasts but they are also scored for contest scoring purposes as if that forecast was not in play, and no loss is awarded when both win under the two systems. The same is true for best scores ... note Yoda has now entered enough contests to void the occasional entry rule). DCA _ RodneyS (and Normal) have a win for lowest forecasts. NYC _ wxdude64 has a win for lowest forecast. BOS, ORD, ATL, PHX _ do not qualify for an extreme forecast. IAH _ Scored as wins for Ephesians2 and Roger Smith (regular forecast rule). DEN (+2.4) _ Win for hudsonvalley21 (+2.1), and loss for DonSutherland (+3.2). SEA _ A win for Ephesians2 and also tied StormchaserChuck and RJay (and Normal) (regular forecast rule) __________________________________ (actual forecasts) FORECASTER __________ DCA _NYC _BOS _ORD _ATL _IAH __DEN _PHX _SEA Ephesians2 ____________+4.3 _+3.8 _+3.5 _+5.4 _+4.0 _+3.6 _+1.0 _+1.3 _ -0.5 Roger Smith ___________ +3.5 _+4.0 _+4.3 _+5.2 _+3.5 _+3.5 _+2.0 _+2.0 _+1.2 StormchaserChuck1 ___ +3.2 _+3.5 _+3.5 _+5.7 _+2.9 _+2.5 _+0.5 _+0.2 __0.0 RJay ___________________ +3.0 _+3.5 _+3.5 _+5.5 _+2.0 _+2.0 _+2.0 __0.0 __0.0 DonSutherland1 ________ +2.5 _+2.6 _+2.5 _+5.4 _+1.7 _+1.7 _+3.2 _+2.6 _+0.2 wxallannj _______________+2.3 _+2.4 _+2.5 _ +2.0 _+1.8 _+2.3 _+1.0 _+0.7 _+0.4 hudsonvalley21 _________+2.1 _+2.1 _ +2.1 __ +3.2 _+1.2 _+1.8 _ +2.1 _+1.9 _+0.2 ___ Consensus _________+2.1 _+2.2 _+2.3__+3.4_+1.7 _+1.9 _+1.3 _+1.1 _+0.5 so_whats_happening __ +2.0 _+2.3 _+2.4 _ +3.5 _+1.6 _+2.1 _ +1.4 _ +1.0 _ +1.6 yoda ___________________ +1.8 _+1.4 _+1.3 __+2.5 _ +1.7 _+1.8 _ +1.3 _ +1.9 _+0.3 BKViking _______________ +1.6 _+1.7 _+1.7 __+1.7 _+1.5 _+1.2 __+1.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.8 Tom ____________________ +1.5 _+1.6 _+1.6 __+2.8 _+1.5 _+1.1 __+1.2 _ +1.1 _ +0.5 Scotty Lightning ________+1.5 _+1.0 _+1.0 __+1.0 _ +1.5 _+1.0 __+1.0 _+1.5 _+0.5 wxdude64 ______________+0.6 _+0.7 _+0.3 _-0.2 _+0.8 _+0.5__-0.4 _-0.2 _+0.7 RodneyS _______________ +0.1 _ +1.7 _+1.6 __+3.8 _+0.6 _+3.0 _+1.6 _+0.6 _+0.9 ___ Normal ______________ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ___0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ___0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _______________ ___ Persistence __(Sep) _-0.2 _+1.4 _+0.9 _+3.0 _+2.5 _+1.2 _-0.1 _+1.0 _+1.5

Anomalies and projections: _______________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ORD _ ATL _IAH __ DEN _PHX _SEA _____ (anom 1-18) _____-0.1 _ +1.0 _ +1.4 __ +7.9 _+4.1 _+5.2 __ +3.5 _-0.5 _-0.6 ___ ( p anom 1-31) _____ 0.0 _+0.5 _ +1.0 __+5.0 _+3.5 _+5.0 __ +2.0 __0.0 _-1.0 ___ final anomalies ____-0.5 _+0.6 _+1.6 __ +4.1 _+1.3 _+4.2 __ +2.4 _+0.9 _-0.5 Final anomalies posted on Oct 31 are now end of month. Scoring was adjusted to previous estimates before final values posted. ATL got quite chilly near the end and scores there have changed substantially. Some of the other changes basically mean everyone gets a higher score, or a majority do so. Scoring is now fully adjusted.

After 1-2"of wet snow, a cold drizzly rain and 38 F here. The previous snow cover had disappeared below 4500\ elevation. last week in some milder conditions. Not fit for man nor beast today, as leaves come tumbling down.

Meanwhile IAH is 4.8 above normal and has had no rain at all yet in October.

Phoenix has had 3.26" also, and normal for this part of October is 0.24" -- in fact the normal for the year to date is only 5.59" -- the climate report reveals that a year ago it was a record warm 103F and the month had been dry to that point. We ended up with 3 inches of snow last night at my elevation of 3300' asl, a drive around on Monday under clear skies revealed that the snow only accumulated above 3000' and it was quickly disappearing this afternoon in town. Quite cold still as clear skies prevail, probably going down below 25 F tonight here.

LB, from what I can ascertain from storm reports and the NOAA weather map archive project, the track was across the Delmarva Peninsula and far southern NJ towards central Long Island and then Rhode Island to near Boston, but as the storm underwent extratropical transition it looks to have been elongating rapidly with a new center forming near Nantucket on Oct 14th. Probably NYC was hit with a period of strong E-NE winds, then moderate westerlies set in when the trough axis passed through CT. It was probably never much over 55 F during the event in NYC, I would guess it was 70F in eastern Long Island briefly. The archive maps lack intensity but are probably better for track as they would have numerous ship reports available.

The NHC has named Lorenzo in the tropical Atlantic, another likely fish storm but hey we'll take what we can get. Scoring tables will be adjusted yet again. Jerry disappeared so no chance of becoming a hurricane. They say Lorenzo has an outside chance. I am guessing the coastal low will get a name a few days from now when it's out over warmer waters. That will be Melissa, or Nestor, or ...

Thanks Don, because our Thanksgiving always falls on a Monday and people travel to visit family/friends, almost everyone in Canada has their big meal on Sunday (today) as we are now about to do ... some wait for the Monday but I would guess three quarters or more of Canadians celebrate today. The big meal is probably very similar to American traditions, but we don't have any huge sales like Black Friday. If people are visiting they usually travel home on the Monday and it's back to work Tuesday so it's a three-day instead of four-day holiday here. If people have summer cottages they usually close those down for the winter either this weekend or the next. I don't know which country had Thanksgiving first, but I think it stems from harvest festival Sundays in some Christian denominations, plus the feast of Tabernacles in Jewish observance that has some similar features. People probably realize this but Columbus Day is not observed in Canada, some might know when it takes place, but Canadian weather enthusiasts refer to the Columbus Day storm as post-tropical Freda.

Wet snow is now falling here, coating on some surfaces. Trees are still in full leaf so if this would accumulate it would bring down branches. It could accumulate at higher elevations than here.