Roger Smith

Dr Ray, Dr Ray to the operating theater ... the patient refuses to die and we've promised the organs to another institute ... surgery is required ... Dr Ray ...

I waived late penalties to earlier Friday so if you want to get started at a very reasonable 5% penalty (by 18z Sat) you can jump in.

__ Forecasts for January 2025 __ FORECASTER _____________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA ___ Normal _________________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 wxallannj __________________________-1.8 _ -1.5 _ -1.3 ___ -2.1 _ -2.4 _ -1.2 ___ -0.7 _ +1.4 _ +2.0 hudsonvalley21 ___________________ -1.9 _ -1.7 _ -1.5 ___ -1.1 __-2.8 _ -0.4 ___ -1.2 _ +1.9 _ +1.4 maxim ____________________________ -2.5 _ -1.5 _ -1.0 ____0.0 _ -2.0 _ +1.1 ___ +2.4 _ +3.5 _ +1.0 RodneyS __________________________-2.8 _ -0.9 _ -0.4 __ -0.8 _ -2.8 _-0.2 ___ +0.9 _ +0.6 _-0.3 Roger Smith ______________________ -3.0 _ -2.5 _ -2.0 __ -3.5 _ -4.0 _ +1.0 ___ +6.0 _ +6.0 _ +3.5 Scotty Lightning __________________ -3.0 _ -3.5 _ -4.0 __ -4.5 _ -2.0 _ -2.0 ___ +2.0 _ +2.5 _ +1.5 BKViking __________________________-4.0 _ -2.7 _ -2.2 __ -2.4 _ -4.2 _ -1.0 ___ +0.9 _ +2.2 _ +3.0 ___ Consensus ____________________-4.0 _ -2.7 _ -2.0 __ -2.4 _ -4.2 _-0.7 ___+0.9 _ +2.2 _ +2.9 wxdude64 ________________________ -4.1 _ -2.7 __ -1.2 __ -2.3 _ -5.2 _ -0.9 ___ -0.5 _ +2.1 _ +2.9 so_whats_happening ______________-4.4 _ -3.1 _ -2.6 __ -3.7 _ -5.1 __ -1.6 ___ -1.2 __ +2.8 _ +1.5 RJay ______________________________ -4.5 _ -3.0 _ -2.0 __ -2.5 _ -5.0 __ 0.0 ___ +1.0 _ +4.5 _ +4.0 DonSutherland1 ___________________ -5.0 _ -2.5 _ -1.0 __ -2.0 _ -5.5 _ -0.7 ___ +0.8 _ +3.2 _ +3.0 StormchaserChuck _______________ -5.3 _ -4.4 _ -3.6 __ -7.0 _ -5.0 __ 0.0 ___ +5.7 _ +6.2 _ +4.2 Tom _______________________________ -5.7 _ -4.5 _ -2.9 __ -4.1 _ -5.9 __-1.1 ____ -0.1 _ +4.2 _ +4.1 Persistence (Dec 2024) ___________ +0.2 _ -0.9 _ -0.4 __+1.5 _+1.5 _ +5.7 ___+8.2 _ +6.5 _ +2.0 ____________________________ warmest and coldest forecasts color coded; Normal is warmest for DCA, NYC, BOS, ORD, ATL; coldest for PHX. consensus is median forecast (ranked 7 of 13 not incl Normal or Persistence)

According to my reading of the data base, NYC had its warmest year on record in 2024, average was 57.9 F, I get 57.8 for 2023, and in 3rd place now were 2012 and 2020 at 57.3 F. Wondering if my data for 2023 and 2024 are accurate to nearest 0.1.

I believe we usually observe a lenient policy on January late penalties so I won't assess any, and feel free to edit forecasts all day 2nd and to whenever I do the table of forecasts on Friday (likely to be early as I do a lot of wx-contest work late evenings, it gets busy for me with 3 contests on different fora but the busy interval is basically over by the 5th and so I just keep at it until it's all done.

___ The history of the contest (with personal best scores) __ updated to end of 2024 ___ Before 2013, the contest was managed by a number of people including but not limited to Chicago Storm, mallow and Ellinwood. In 2013 I began to score the contest, although there was no max-60 rule and just six stations until 2014. In 2014 the three western locations were offered as "optional" and the scores were not combined. Contest scoring reports were separated into two groups (original six and western three), but by 2017 the scores were combined so total scoring was out of 900 each month. In 2013, RodneyS was the annual contest winner and DonSutherland1 was third. We used to have a considerably larger contest field of 30-40 lasting to about 2017, and some who have departed are long-time members still active, others have left Am-Wx or at least are now operating under a different username). I have added results from 2013, bearing in mind, totals are out of 600, not 900 (no western stations yet) ... month _______ winning score (/600) _____ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active JAN ___________ 452 _Mallow, 448 midlo snow maker __ 436 RodneyS FEB ___________ 512 __ Ineedsnow ______ Don Sutherland1 __ 492 MAR _____________ 457 __ wxdude64 APR ___________ 466 __Sacrus __________ RodneyS _ 462 _____ no snowfall contest winter 2012-13 MAY _____________ 534 __ Isotherm _520 Ellinwood __ 506 BKViking (tied OhLeary) __ severe storm bonus contest, subjective post-mortem* ___ ___ ____ ____ _____ ______ _______ ________ __________ __________ *pottercounty, Ellinwood, MNT, ChIcago Storm were mentioned as best JUN ___________ 556 __ Roger Smith _ 550 Mallow _ 546 Midlo Snow Maker JUL ___________ 460 __ Mallow, 438 Sacrus __ 424 wxdude64 AUG ___________530 __ UncleW __ 524 Chicago Storm __ 522 Roger Smith SEP ___________ 538 __ MN_Transplant __ four others, then 472 _ SD (Scotty L nowadays) OCT __________ 544 __ forkyfork ________522 _BKViking tied 4th __ Midlo Snow Maker won seasonal max contest for 6 locs (RodneyS t2nd w UncleW) NOV __________ 470 __ RodneyS ___ four seasons contest did not begin until 2014-15 year DEC ___________448 __ MetallicWx366 ___ DonSutherland1 _ 392 __ Winner of 2013 contest (combined score) was RodneyS (5215) with Midlo Snow Maker second at 4967, DonS 3rd at 4851. No extreme forecast tracking yet. In 2014, although scores were not combined, I have added them and found these monthly wins ( was going to place numbers in brackets to represent scoring if a max-60 rule was in effect but could find few cases of revisable scores, a few such low scoring months exist but those with increased scores did not come very close to winning any month): ___ note your personal best score is also tracked even if you didn't win that month. month _______ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active JAN ___________ 700 __ Roger Smith FEB ___________ 558 __ midlo snow maker ___ Don Sutherland1 __ 532 MAR _____________ 677 __ Don Sutherland1 APR ___________ 802 __Don Sutherland1 ___ ( Mallow 798 ) ___ midlo snow maker won snowfall contest (Tom t4 best of current forecasters) MAY _____________ 736 __ Don Sutherland1 ___ ( Isotherm 728 ) JUN ___________ 810 __ Mallow ___________ Roger S _ 808 ... hudsonvalley21 _ 794 JUL ___________ 592 __ Roger Smith (also Cpick79 (N of Pike) tied 592) AUG __________ 608 __ Don Sutherland1 SEP ___________ 742 __ Midlo Snow Maker ___ Don Sutherland1 and BKViking _ 716 OCT __________ 584 __ wxallannj (600) ___ Damage in Tolland won seasonal max contest (RodneyS 2nd) NOV __________ 609 __ Roger Smith (627) ___ four seasons contest did not begin until 2014-15 year DEC __________ 592 __ Midlo Snow Maker ___ wxallannj _ 462 __ Winner of 2014 contest (combined score) was Roger Smith (7195 would be 7213 now) while DonS totalled 7186. This close finish was not recorded at the time and Don was close to top of western scoring. Roger Smith also won the extreme forecast award (14-2). 2015 _ scores now combined making this project a lot simpler to navigate ... month _______ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active JAN __________ 656 __ Isotherm __________ Tom _ 542 FEB ________ about 500* __ DonS ... ______ __ __ BKViking won snowfall contest for winter on a different scoring system MAR __________ 507 __ Absolute humidity ____ DonS _ 503 APR _________796 __ Midlo Snow Maker __ wxallannj _ 756 MAY ________ 535 __ Stebo _______________ RodneyS _ 495 JUN ________ 596 __ wxdude64 JUL ________ 765 __ DonSutherland1 AUG _______ 696 __ SD (Scotty L) __ (later realized SD was Scotty Lightning, not sure when changed) SEP ________ 619 __ RJay ____________ __ __ SD (Scotty L) won seasonal max contest, Tom was 2nd. OCT _______ 714 __ Damage in Tolland ____ DonS 644 NOV _______ 774 __ ksammut _Ohwx 752 __DonS 726 ___ first four seasons contest winner Isotherm, DonS 4th (Mallow 2nd, msm 3rd) DEC _______ 487 __ snoski14 _______________Roger Smith 454 (very mild Dec 2015, scoring quite low for most) The highest combined score for 2015 was 6944 (Isotherm) and DonS was third at 6499. (D in T was 2nd). Damage in Tolland also won extreme forecast award (11-0), RJay and RodneyS (5-2) were best of currently active forecasters. * Feb 2015 was a very cold month, low scoring ... I proposed a max 60 rule in play but it was left out for 2015 ... if it were used, DonS would have won with about 500 pts. The actual high score was 383 for mikehobbyst. _______________________ 2016 _ The max-60 rule was still not adopted, and scoring for DEN and PHX was quite low in Feb 2016 but I couldn't find any potential winning scores among those who would have seen improved scores. No doubt our current forecasters would have scored higher if they alone had been boosted. month _______ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active JAN ______ 724 __ wxdude64 FEB ______ 534 __ Midlo Snow Maker __ RodneyS _ 446 MAR ______665 __Maxim ______________ DonS _ 637 APR ______ 710 __ wxallannj __________ __ __ winter snow contest won by Mallow, wxdude64 (5th) had high score of current active forecasters MAY ______ 708 __ Don Sutherland1 JUN ______ 702 __ Damage in Tolland __ RodneyS __ 658 JUL ______ 754*__ OHweather 754 _____ wxdude64, hudsonvalley21 _ t744 __ *(Consensus won wit 756) AUG ______ 646 __ RJay SEP ______ 698 __ Maxim _______________ RJay _ 632 ____ Summer max contest co-winners Maxim and Mallow, RodneyS was 3rd OCT _____ 580 __ Maxim _______________ RJay _ 560 NOV _____ 650 __ Don Sutherland1 ____ four seasons winners (tied) DonS and RJay DEC _____ 631 __ BKViking (despite 6% late penalty) DonSutherland1 won the annual contest with 7139 points. Damage in Tolland won extreme forecast award 9-0. Among currently active forecasters, RodneyS in fourth (7-3) was top currently active. 2017 still went forward without max-60 scoring and contests were not yet fully merged. The January scores were very low in eastern and central regions, due to very mild conditions. If max-60 had been applied, they would have been higher by at least 100 in some cases. Top scores were as low as 17 and 20. A much smaller adjustment was required in February 2017, where ORD had a top score of 49, and it was recorded by the eventual contest winner RJay. March also needed adjusting and after a discussion, we used a modified version of max-60 scoring. Score adjustments shown here use the current version. month _______ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active JAN _______ 452 (587) _ Don Sutherland1 FEB ________587 (598) _ RJay MAR _______518 (556) _ RodneyS _________ Mercurial won snowfall contest with RodneyS a close second. APR _______ 628 __ RJay MAY _______ 670 __ Don Sutherland1 ___ (Normal _ 702 actually "won" contest) JUN _______ 694 __ wxallannj JUL ________778 __ RJay AUG _______ 770 __ Don Sutherland1 SEP ________ 725 __ rainsucks ___________ BKViking _ 589 ____ CCM won seasonal max, one point ahead of BKViking OCT _______ 645 __ rainsucks ___________ BKViking _ 627 NOV _______ 532 (556) _ RodneyS _______ RodneyS also won four seasons contest for 2017 DEC _______ 614 __ Don Sutherland1 The annual contest winner for 2017 was RJay, scoring 6417 (would have been closer to 6600 using current scoring). Extreme forecast winner was also RJay at 8-0. By late 2017 the contest turnout was beginning to look fairly similar to 2022-23, with perhaps three or four additional players. To drum up support I came up with the "Regional Rumble" concept for 2018 which compared scores of top forum sub-regional forecasters in a team format. This worked for a while but the overwhelming superiority of NYC and mid-Atlantic had a chilling effect and by end of 2018 we were pretty much back to square one, and the "Regional Rumble" went the way of the Edsel and robots who do housework. SD changed to Scotty Lightning during 2018, can't tell when as software changed username before I changed name in scoring tables. 2018 As noted above, "Regional Rumble" took place in 2018. Best regional score (eastern, central, western) from any forecaster in sub-forum was used to determine format scoring. Also, max-60 finally made it to scoring system, so 2018 scores are directly comparable to more recent years. month _____ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active JAN _______ 640 _ Mercurial __________ Don Sutherland1 _ 536 ___ "Regional Rumble" winner Central/western FEB _______ 449 _ so_whats_happening (despite 4% late pen) ___ "Regional Rumble" winner Philly MAR ______ 684 _ RodneyS ____________ "Regional Rumble" winner Mid Atlantic. APR _______ 627 _ RodneyS ____________ "Regional Rumble" winner NYC MAY _______ 633 _ Roger Smith ________ "Regional Rumble" winner Central/West ___ snowfall contest winner Don Sutherland1 JUN _______ 744 _ BKViking (742 Tom) _ "Regional Rumble" winner NYC JUL _______ 737 _ RodneyS _____________ "Regional Rumble" winner Mid Atlantic AUG ______ 618 _ Don Sutherland1 ______ "Regional Rumble" winner NYC SEP _______ 688 _ RJay _________________ "Regional Rumble" winner NYC ___ seasonal max contest winner Don Sutherland1 OCT _______ 650 _ Scotty Lightning ____ "Regional Rumble" winner Mid Atlantic NOV _______ 527 _ Scotty Lightning (Normal 540) __ "Regional Rumble" winner Philly ___ Four Seasons winner wxallannj DEC _______ 572 _ wxallannj _____________"Regional Rumble" winner Philly (annual NYC) ___ Annual contest winner Scotty L (6393) _______________ _______________ _________________ _________________ extreme forecast winner Roger Smith (15-1) 2019 _ Contest entrants now limited to current group plus Stebo who only entered first four, RJay also opted out for rest of year around May. Regional Rumble no longer in operation. Two guest appearances in 2019 by jakkelwx (July and Dec), and one each for tplbge (June), smerby (July), and Orangeburg Wx (Oct). month _____ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active JAN _______ 676 _ hudsonvalley21 FEB _______ 585 _ stebo (despite 3% late pen) _ RodneyS _ 550 MAR ______ 737 _ wxdude64 _________ snowfall contest winner RodneyS (final report edited back from end of snow in APR-MAY) APR _______ 707 _ RodneyS MAY _______ 658 _ RodneyS JUN _______ 792 _ wxdude64 JUL _______ 686 _ Roger Smith AUG _______672 _ Scotty Lightning SEP _______ 600 _ Roger Smith ______ seasonal max contest winner wxallannj OCT _______ 682 _ Orangeburg Wx __ Don Sutherland1 586 NOV _______ 679 _ Roger Smith ______Four Seasons winner RodneyS (consensus marginally better score, based on ranks not points in 2019) DEC _______ 601 _ wxallannj __________Annual contest winner wxdude64 (7114) (RodneyS 7106) ___ Extreme forecast winner Roger Smith (27-8) ... also Roger Smith had a larger total of best forecasts but with quite a few very low scores, and so ended up middle of annual scoring table. 2020 _ The year began with the current group of regulars (except for so_whats_happening who had been active around 2016-18 but not in 2019 or 2020), and a number of new faces, some of who entered more than once during 2020. Brian5671 entered eight, jakkelwx seven, yoda four, and rclab, dwave, Maxim and Rhino16 one each. Maxim was quite regularly entered in contests around 2014 to 2017. month _____ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active JAN _______ 559 _ RodneyS FEB _______ 701 _ RodneyS MAR ______ 638 _ DonSutherland1 ___ snowfall contest winner wxallannj (final report edited back from end of snow in APR-MAY) APR _______ 595 _ DonSutherland1 ... (632_Normal was actual winner) MAY _______ 726 _ RodneyS JUN _______ 726 _ RJay (despite 2% late penalty) JUL _______ 664 _ RJay AUG _______732 _ Roger Smith SEP _______ 794 _ RodneyS __________ seasonal max contest winner RodneyS, wxallannj was 2nd by one point. OCT _______ 690 _ Yoda _____________ hudsonvalley21 _ 660 NOV _______ 579 _ Roger Smith ______Four Seasons winner RodneyS DEC _______ 730 _ DonSutherland1 ___Annual contest winner RodneyS (7223) __ extreme forecast winner Roger Smith 17-5 (RodneyS was 15-4). RJay at 13-0 _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ had the best differential. 2021 __ The year began with the current regular entrants participating. Deformation Zone entered six from July to Dec. Stormchaser Chuck appeared in only one (NOV), and had previously entered a few contests as "A few universes below normal" (I think) in previous years. The seasonal max contest ran in a separate thread in an effort to attract extra forecasts (none were submitted). The infamous heat dome struck and SEA had a seasonal max of 108! Despite missing that by 16 deg, wxallannj won the contest. Our highest forecast for SEA was 99F. At my own location, an all time max of 113 was recorded. month _____ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active JAN _______ 678 _ DonSutherland1 FEB _______ 569 _ RodneyS MAR ______ 561 _ so_whats_happening and wxdude64 tied APR _______ 638 _ BKViking _________ snowfall contest winner RJay (final report edited back from end of snow in MAY) MAY _______ 700 _ Tom _ (Normal 716 was actual winner) _ wxallannj 696 _ a close finish with different outcome relative to 1991-2020 normals announced during month JUN _______ 609 _ Roger Smith _______ first contest with 1991-2020 values used. JUL _______ 680 _ RodneyS _ Normal 686 was actual winner AUG _______736 _ Roger Smith SEP _______ 630 _ RJay (629 DonS) __ seasonal max contest winner wxallannj (separate thread). OCT _______ 656 _ RJay (despite 1% late penalty) NOV _______ 685 _ Roger Smith ______Four Seasons winner DonSutherland1 DEC _______ 518 _ RodneyS ___Annual contest winner DonSutherland1 (7011) RodneyS (6927) __ __ __ extreme forecast outcome very similar to previous year ... winner Roger Smith 16-3, RodneyS was 15-1, RJay at 12-0. 2022 __ The contest featured more regular appearances by Stormchaser Chuck who made eight appearances; George001 entered DEC to enter snowfall contest, and added temperatures. The highlight of the year was probably the highest annual totals to date. RodneyS had a very good second half of the year. month _____ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active JAN _______ 682 _ wxdude64 FEB _______ 690 _ DonSutherland1 MAR ______ 756 _ Tom APR _______ 676 _ RJay _________ snowfall contest winner RodneyS (final report edited back from end of snow in MAY) MAY _______660 _ DonSutherland1 _ (RJay 658 after 1% late penalty) JUN _______ 718 _ Roger Smith JUL _______ 728 _ so_whats_happening AUG _______682 _ Roger Smith SEP _______ 730 _ RodneyS ____ seasonal max contest winner RJay OCT _______ 670 _ RodneyS NOV _______ 618 _ BKViking ____ Four Seasons winner Rodney with DonSutherland1 only two points back iso DEC _______ 740 _ RodneyS ___Annual contest winner Rodney S (7690) ... 2nd wxdude64 _ 7488 ... 3rd DonS _ 7462 (best totals in report so far) ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ (swh 11/12 contests, prorated score would be 7509). __ __ __ extreme forecast outcome very similar to previous two years ... winner Roger Smith 16-7, RodneyS was 12-2, Stormchaser Chuck from 8/12 contests made a good score of 9.5-1. (unlike previous reports 2022 includes a reduction for ties, comparable numbers are 18-7, 14-2, 10-1.) 2023 __ The current contest year will be fully reported going forward and then this entire report will be moved to end of DEC thread. Stormchaser Chuck has continued to enter a few but not all contests, and swh has been somewhat occasional so far at 7/11 to NOV. Rhino16 became a new regular forecaster in March. Rainsucks and Terpeast have each entered one contest. Tom missed March due to injury and is doing a great job of gradually catching up to the pack (already past your host). month _____ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active JAN _______ 554 _ DonSutherland1 FEB _______ 674 _ Stormchaser Chuck __ RJay 657 MAR ______ 513 _ DonSutherland1 APR _______ 652 _ wxdude64 _______ snowfall contest winner Scotty Lightning MAY _______700 _ tied wxallannj, hudsonvalley21 _ Consensus actually won with 720 JUN _______ 636 _ RodneyS JUL _______ 746 _ wxallannj AUG _______722 _ DonSutherland1 SEP _______ 750 _ RodneyS OCT _______690 _ Roger Smith _ (so_whats_happening 687 lost 7 pts to late pen) NOV _______ 656 _ Rhino16 _____ wxallannj 648 _____ Don S wins four seasons contest, wxallannj second DEC _______ 572 _ wxallannj _________________________ RJay (18-1) wins extreme forecast contest ______________________________________________________ Don S wins annual contest (7399), wxallannj second (7170) =========================================== 2024 _ JAN _______ 674 _ Rodney S FEB _______ 613 _ rainsucks __ wxallannj (554) MAR ______ 762 _ RJay (758 DonS) APR _______ 794 _ Roger S (774 wxall5annj _ p.b.) __________ RodneyS wins snowfall contest (DonS 2nd) MAY _______ 738 _ wxallannj JUN ________ 737 _ Rhino16__ Scotty L (596) JUL ________ 704 _ Roger S AUG ________692 _ Roger S ___ seasonal max winner Tom SEP ________ 664 _ RJay ___ persistence (706) only win against field so far (not tracked before 2023) OCT ________665 _ Stormchaser Chuck ____ RodneyS (540) NOV ________688 _ Roger S _____ four seasons winner wxallannj DEC ________675 _ Stormchaser Chuck ____ BKViking (659) ____ wxallannj annual winner, DonS 2nd _____________________________________________________ Scotty Lightning wins extreme forecasts 9-0 (RS 9-3, rainsucks 9-3) _______________________________________________________________ Summary of contest wins, best scores 2014 to 2024 By Dec 2024, 132 contests and 11 years of contests are now complete. This table is updated during 2025 contest year. For each element scored, +field means additional wins only against current eleven regular players (not including Stormchaser Chuck, Rhino16 or rainsucks), and that format also exists for last three groups (winter snowfall, summer max, extreme forecasts, four seasons _ nine years tracked) but no headings identify add-on values. A score of 0.5 indicates a tied result except for a conversion to best against current field from a tied win. Best monthly score over eleven years is shown in brackets beside forecaster name. Wins in 2013 not counted in table, as formats were different. RodneyS won contest in 2013. FORECASTER _____ Wins (Mo) _+field__ total ___ Wins (Yr)_+field_total _ Snow _ Summer _ Extreme _ Four Seasons DonSutherland1 (802) __ 21 _____ 8.5 ___29.5 ______ 3 _____ 1 ____ 4 ______ 1 _______ 1 _______ 0 ________ 2.5, 1, 3.5 __ RodneyS (794) __________20 ______ 5 ____ 25 _______ 3 _____ 0 ____ 3 ______3,1,4 ___ 1,2,3 ___ 0,1.5,1.5 ___ 4 ____ Roger Smith (808) ______18.5 ____ 2.5 ___ 21.0 ______ 1 _____ 0 _____ 1 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 6 ________ 0 ____ RJay (778) ______________ 12 ______ 3 _____15________ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 1 _______ 1 ______ 2,0.5,2.5__0.5, 0, 0.5 __ wxallannj (770) __________8.5 ______4 ____ 12.5 ______ 1 _____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 1 _______ 2 _______ 0 ________ 2 ____ wxdude64 (792) _________6.5_____ 0.5____ 7.0 ______ 1 _____ 0 _____ 1 ______ 0,1,1 _____ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ Midlo Snow Maker (746) __5 ______ --_____ 5 _______ 0 _____--_____ 0 _______ 1 _______0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ BKViking (744) ___________4.5 _____ 3.5 ___8.0 ______ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 1 _______0,1,1 ______ 0 ________ 0 ____ Scotty L (SD) __ (744) ____ 4 ______ 1 _____ 5 _______ 1 _____ 0 ______ 1 ______ 1 _______ 1 ________ 1 ________ 0 ____ StormchaserChuck (724) _3 ______ --_____ 1 _______ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ Maxim (698) ______________3 ______--_____ 3 _______ 0 _____--______ 0 ______ 0 ______ 0.5 ______ 0 ________ 0 ____ rainsucks (725) ___________3 ______ --_____ 3 _______ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ so_whats_happening(728)_2.5*_____0 ____2.5*_____ 0______ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ Tom (756) _________________2 ______ 1 _____ 3 ________ 0______ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0, 1, 1 ___ 2 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ Damage in Tolland (714) __ 2 ______ -- ____ 2 ________ 0 _____ --_____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 1 ________ 2 ________ 0 ____ Stebo (712)_______________ 2 ______ --_____ 2 ________ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ Rhino16 (737) _____________2 _______--_____ 2 ________ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ hudsonvalley21 (794) _____ 1 ______ 1.5____ 2.5 ______ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ Mallow (810) ______________ 1 ______ --_____ 1 ________ 0 _____ --_____ 0 ______ 0 _______1.5 _______0 ________ 0 ____ Isotherm (760) _____________1 ______ --_____ 0 ________ 1 _____ --_____ 1 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 1 ____ OHweather (754) __________1 ______ --_____ 0 ________ 0 _____ --_____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ Absolute humidity _________ 1 ______ --_____ 1 ________ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ ksammut (774) ____________ 1 ______ --_____ 1 ________ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ Snoski14 ___________________1 ______ --_____ 1 ________ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ Mercurial ___________________1 ______ --_____ 1 ________ 0______ --_____ 0 ______ 1 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ Orangeburg Wx (682) ______1 ______ --_____ 1 ________ 0______ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ Yoda (690) _________________1 ______ --_____ 1 ________ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ CPick79 (N of Pike) ________0.5 ____ -- ____ 0.5 _______ 0 _____ -- _____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ mikehobbyst _______________ 1 ______ --_____ 1 ________ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ CCM _______________________ 0 ______ --_____ 0 ________ 0 _____ --_____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 1 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ * so_whats_happening had a higher raw score by four points than Oct 2023 contest winner Roger S but 1% late penalties on seven of nine reduced it to three points lower. (following not counted against wins above) Consensus (756) ___________ 2 Normal (720) _______________ 4 Persistence (706) __________ 1 Note: Best scores 810 Mallow and 808 Roger Smith, also hudsonvalley21 (794) occurred in same month (June 2014). blazes556, not a monthly winner at any point, scored 778. April 2014 also produced notably good scores, DonS 802 and Mallow 798, and goobagooba, despite never winning a month, had a score of 772 (also 756 in June 2014). Forecasters with no listed high score have not broken 720 so far and a later search will hopefully uncover actual high scores, also cannot confirm some of lower entries for high score. Somewhat sadly, I can see the field of forecasters slowly reducing to the current core, and you wonder if some are still active at all, but it is what it is. UPDATED to DEC 2024 and FOUR SEASONS, ANNUAL and EXTREME FORECASTS 2024

Large changes can and probably will happen in 6-10 day intervals.

Congrats to wxallannj for winning 2024 contest. Don closed the scoring gap a little in Dec, but it was still a decisive margin. Only wxallannj and DonS outdid consensus; RJay was third and even if all late penalties were restored position would be essentially same. The pack were very closely spaced after fourth place so_whats_happening. Just 65 points separated 5th and 8th positions. Extreme forecast winner appears to be Scotty L, 9-0 being better than 9-3 (RS and rainsucks).

It's officially over at 18/11/5 ... scoring table in previous post, only first of three scoring columns is valid now. Congrats to overall contest winner Kirkcaldy Weather (of Net-weather) with a perfect forecast and 100.0 points, and to Ed Snow and hurricane Fan, top American Weather Forum entry, 98.0 points.

Canadian looked like it was about to do something at end of its run, is there any 11-12 day Canadian output? -- stuck in 2024.

It dropped by 40 in 6-9hrs after leaving AL at 995 mbs. Winds were 90+ kts near London ON and large towers were blown over. Also Nov 9 1913, 80-90 kt winds.

01-26-1978 (further west of course) 11-09-1913 (also west) _ Lake huron shipping disaster 10-12-1962 west coast _ large-scale forest blowdown A very intense low near Long Island 03-01-1914 was near 950. NYC's lowest SLP. Blizzard of 1888, 1899 (Feb) also in ballpark possibly? Extreme cold and blizzards of Jan 19-22 1857. Oct 1987 in Britain All very high impact situations. ... and also full moon, tidal surge potential.

New Year's greetings to all ... forecast contest will continue but in one annual mega-thread for all of 2025, same location ... I note 3/5 NYC regulars have already posted, hoping to see everyone and even a few new participants ... I was actually in the NYC metro for the record warm NYE-NYD 1965-66, I had relatives living in Clark Township (Rahway) NJ and recall standing outside in pouring rain and occasional thunder near midnight and it was close to 65 F. Even "back home" in Ontario I learned on return it was near 60F at midnight setting two daily records (58, 57) at Toronto that are still in existence also. As some will recall, a good stretch of cold and snow followed in late Jan 1966 and it became very mild again around Feb 10 setting more records. We had 17" of snow on Jan 23rd and there was a blizzard on the east coast a few days later. We also saw 17" of snow on Feb 25, 1965 (previous winter), I believe it was a wind-rain event in NYC. I was a high school student with a home weather station, and no way to connect with other weather enthusiasts pre-internet. I don't know how any there were, probably a few from what I gather reading this forum. If I knew then what I know now, I would know now what I knew then.

<<<< ===[]===[] .......... ==== Annual scoring for Jan-Dec 2024 ==== ..........[]===[]=== >>>> ... final contest results for 2024 ... FORECASTER ______________DCA_ NYC_ BOS __ east ___ ORD _ATL_ IAH_____cent __ c/e ______ DEN_ PHX_ SEA __ west __ TOTALS wxallannj _______________901 _880 _914 __2695 __ 671 _904 _727 __2302 _ 4997 __687 _736 _916 _2339 ___7336 DonSutherland1 ________ 893 _916 _938 __2747 __ 747 _812 _673 __2232 _ 4957 __708 _751 _708 _2167 ___ 7119 ___ Consensus ________ 871 _868 _938 __2677 __ 687 _844 _709 __2240 _4917 __609 _704_864 _2177 ___7094 RJay ___________________ 879 _799 _806 __ 2484 __ 765 _865 _713 __2343 _4827 __633 _684 _757 _2074 ___6901 so_whats_happening ___837 _860 _928 __2625 __ 712 _ 804 _628 __2144 _4769 __601 _ 626 _ 824 _2051 ___6820 Scotty Lightning ________826 _741 _821 __2388 __ 539 _ 895 _777 __2211 _ 4599 __549 _603 _909 _2061 ___6660 Tom ____________________837 _780 _866 __2483 __ 562 _786 _677 __2025 _4508 __538 _628 _944 _2110 ___6618 hudsonvalley21 _________789 _730 _802 __2321 __ 691 _846 _740 __2277 _ 4598 __596 _590 _828 _2014 ___6612 Roger Smith ____________769 _772 _710 __2251 __ 643 _843 _623 __2109 _ 4360 __625 _820 _790 _2235 ___6595 RodneyS _______________ 593 _798 _826 __2217 __ 496 _534 _645 __1675 _ 3892 __752 _566 _928 _2246 ___6138 ___ Persistence ________ 777 _760 _774 __2311 __ 555 _780 _735 __2070 _ 4381 __ 260 _609 _800 __1669 ___6050 wxdude64 _____________ 568 _665 _795 __2028 __ 530 _553 _561 __ 1644 _ 3672 __555 _583 _877 _2015 ___5687 rainsucks (9/12) ________733 _689 _617 __2039 __ 542 _651 _593 __ 1786 _ 3825 __467 _559 _558 _1584 ___5409 (7212) BKViking (10/12) ________726 _684 _720 __2130 __ 496 _681 _599 __ 1776 _ 3906 __501 _ 596 _695 _1792 ___5698 (6838) ___ Normal ______________618 _598 _722 __ 1938 __ 512 _598 _464 __1574 _3512 __474 _468 _972 _ 1914 ___5426 Stormchaser Chuck (8/12)_512_504_556__1572 __489 _478 _408 __1375 __2947 __382 _501 _494 _ 1377 ___4324 (6486) Rhino16 (4/12) __________ 210 _186 _198 __ 594 __ 227 _286 _216 __ 729 __1323 ___230 _341 _260 __ 831 ___ 2154 (6462) George BM (1/12) ________88 _ 98 _ 96 __ 282 __ 48 __ 70 __ 42 __ 160 ___ 442 ____ 98 __ 18 __ 32 __ 148 ___ 590 (7080) pro-rated scores for entrants above (in brackets) can be better compared to field and Normal. Persistence stayed well above Normal and advanced into lower portion of forecaster group despite poor score in Dec. ----------------------------------- Best forecasts * tied wins (one per * ) ^ 3 forecasters tied (plus Consensus and normal -- 4 for SEA for 2024-03 and PHX for April ) FORECASTER ___________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent _ c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west___ TOTAL wxallannj ________________3*___ 2*___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 2** __1 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___2*___ 3* ___ 2 ____1 _May ___ Consensus _________ 0 ___ 2^____ 0 ____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1^____0 ___ 0 DonSutherland1 _________ 2 ___ 1^ ___ 3 ____ 5 *___ 2*____1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____4 ___ 3* ___1 ___ 2^____ 1 ____ 1 RJay _____________________1*___ 1*___ 0 ____ 1*____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1 ____ 2 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 2*___ 2^ ____2 *___2 _ Mar, Sep so_whats_happening ____0 ___ 1^ ___ 1 ____ 0 ____1 *___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 2 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*____ 0 ___ 0 Scotty Lightning _________1 ___ 2^___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 3* ___1* ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1*___ 3^____ 0 ___ 0 Tom _____________________ 1 ___ 2**__0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1^___ 2 *____0 _____0 hudsonvalley21 _________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____0 ____ 2**__1* ___ 4 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 0 ____ 1*____0 _____0 Roger Smith _____________0 ___ 3^ __ 1 ____ 1 ____0 ___3*** _ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 4^ ___ 1* ____4 ___ 4 _Apr,Jul,Aug,Nov RodneyS ________________ 1 ___ 1 ____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 3 ___ 2*___ 0 ____ 1 _____ 1 _ Jan rainsucks _______________ 2 ___ 3 ____ 2 ____ 2 ____ 2 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1^ ___0 ____ 1 *____1 _ Feb wxdude64 _______________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 _____2 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____ 2 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2*____0 ____ 0 BKViking ________________ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2*^__ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 Normal __________________ 1 ___ 1 ___ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 3^____ 0 ______0 Stormchaser Chuck _____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 2 ___ 2**__0 ____ 2 ____ 1 ___ 2* ___ 1*___ 0 ___ 1 _____ 2 _ Oct, Dec Rhino16 _________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 2 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 1 ____ 2 ______1 _ Jun George BM ______________ 0 ___ 1^ ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 _____0 July NYC five tied, added to table ^ ... tied total score of DonS and George for eastern total not indicated as tied. RodneyS also DEN in July EXTREmE FORECAST REPORT A total of 74 qualified (54 for warmest, 20 for coldest) ... ... Jan 2-2, Feb 8-0, Mar 4-0, Apr 4-2, May 3-2, June 7-1, July 2-3, Aug 3-4, Sep 4-1, Oct 8-1, Nov 4-4, Dec 5-0 * tied for a win or loss, scores adjusted in final col. FORECASTER _________ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _ Apr _ May _ Jun _ Jul _ Aug _ Sep _Oct_ Nov_ Dec __ TOTAL __ adj for ties rainsucks _____________2-0 _ 4-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-2* _ 0-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-1 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 0-0 __ 9-3 ___ 9.0 - 2.5 Scotty Lightning ______ 0-0 _ 2*-0_0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 3-0 _ 0-0 _2*-0 _0-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 9-0 ___ 8.0 - 0 Roger Smith ___________0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-1 _ 2*-1 _ 1*-0_ 0-0 _ 2*-0_1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 2-1 __ 0-0 __ 9-3 ___ 7.5 - 3.0 DonSutherland1 _______0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0 -0 _ 1-0 __0-0 _ 2*-0_3*-0 _ 0-0 __ 8-0 ___ 7.0 - 0 RodneyS ______________ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0 -0 _ 3-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-1* _ 0-1 __ 0-0 __ 7-2 ___ 7.0 - 1.5 ___ Normal ____________ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-1 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-1 __ 3-0 __ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 __ 0-0 __ 7-2 ___ 7.0 - 2.0 Stormchaser Chuck ___ 0-2 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 2*-0 _0-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _ 4*-1 _0-0 __ 1-1 __ 7-4 ___ 6.0- 4.0 hudsonvalley21 _______ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 3**-0_0-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-1 _ 1-0 _ 1-0 __ 0-0 __ 0-0 __ 6-1 ___ 4.0 - 1.0 wxallannj _______________0-0 _ 1*-0_ 0-0 _ 2*-1 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0_0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 __ 6-1 ___ 4.5 - 1.0 RJay __________________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-2 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0 _2-0 _ 0-0 __0-0 __2*-0__ 6-2 ___ 5.0 - 2.0 Rhino16 ________________0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 4-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __0-0 __0-0 __ 5-0 ___ 5.0 - 0 wxdude64 _____________ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _2-0 _ 0-0 __ 1-0 _ 0-1 * _ 1*-0 _0-0 __ 5-1 ___ 4.5 - 0.5 Tom ____________________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __0-0 _ 2*-0 _0-0 __ 2-0 __ 1.5 _ 0.0 BKViking _______________ 0-0 _ 0-1 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 2*-0 _ 2-1 __ 1.5 _ 1.0 so_whats_happening ___0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __0-0 _ 1*-0__ 0-0 __ 1-0 __ 0.5 _ 0.0

A lot can happen in 12-15 days and the pattern looks to me like it could easily tick towards a very big storm on the east coast around mid-January, without any large changes day to day in the model runs, just a gradual evolution that you can already see is quite feasible on GFS with that slow-moving low near some odd-looking clusters of very low heights, no particular reason why that cannot all phase into one well organized stacked low drifting east through PA and NJ and that can only end up as bombogenesis given the thermal gradients. And I know from research that there's a 2-3 times random chance of a big storm developing near the January full moon, it's not a perfect fit but it's sort of like saying, would Bruins win with Bobby Orr on the ice or in the dressing room?

Continuing to see good indications around days 14-16 even if development at this long time range is weak, I can sense that any amplification of the very cold trough will quickly change the look on surface development and provide fuel for a coastal low around then. GFS for the first threat (as on other guidance and in the new thread) has so far refused to bite but in the current setup with so much mild air around, weak disturbances working with moderate cold outbreaks can fool the models quite easily before 48h. I would not be surprised if there's a 7-10 inch event around Jan 7-8, then deeper cold and a setup for a bigger storm to follow much below normal days. I can't see BN or MBN regimes staying dry next to a warm Atlantic and it's not like there's a raging northwest flow pumping in cold, dry air, it's a seep of cool, moist air from a northerly source. Hard to keep that sort of air mass stable for two weeks.

I think the big storm will come mid-January (14 to 16 time frame) and models will begin to respond to it slowly at first, you can see today at end of GFS run there's a bit of a vortmax trying to gather energy around the base of the eastern trof, but the shaping isn't conducive yet. If that feature amplifies and catches the energy peak on Jan 13-14, boom.

Thanks, my health has improved considerably since November when I was beginning to wonder if I would make it to New Years. In fact it has improved back to how it was before I felt sick. So I should be fine to continue on as usual, hoping we find a full renewal of the glorious twelve (I think) of 2024. I feel pretty confident about going earlier than I usually do with -3.0 _ -2.5 _ -2.0 _ -3.5 _ -4.0 _ +1.0 _ +6.0 _ +6.0 _ +3.5 looks like western ridge eastern trof will lock in for most of month to me, perhaps a bit less pronounced in second half, or I could see even larger departures being possible.

Day 8 on Euro is good -- already posted elsewhere -NYC- (it's only at day 6 on site I look at). Can see on day 6 it's primed for a storm to develop.

Where do they get Euro guidance so fast? .. where I usually look 00z is only out to day four (as of 0615z)

I posted anomalies around 14th and can't see them here today ?? I must have clicked on "submit" and it timed out after I went off to do something else. The post is not in any other thread or in my post history. But I certainly had it ready to post. Anyway, as of now near end of month, large positive anomalies in west, small and rapidly eroding negatives in east. Projection for final anoms and preliminary (to final) scoring ... anomalies will be edited into final values and scoring adjusted as needed. __________________________________ +0.2 _ -0.9 _ -0.4 ___ +1.5 _ +1.5 _ +5.7 ___ +8.2 _ +6.5 _ +2.0^ ^ SEA report +2.1 with 31st given as missing, but daily climate report is available and reads zero anomaly, so estimate of +2.0 will be used and adjusted if missing data are adjusted. _ Final Scoring for December 2024 _ ^ IAH and DEN scored by max-60 system of minimum progression, PHX did not require it. In max-60, you get the higher of your progression score (equal steps adjusted by 2-4 for spacing fairness), or your raw score. For these large positive anomalies, any positive forecast will score at least n points where you predicted 0.n ... equal spacing used was 6 points since negative forecasts would score zero. FORECASTER _______________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH_cent_c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA__west___TOTAL StormchaserChuck __________ 88 _ 66 _ 84 __ 238 __ 92 _ 90 _ 56^__ 238 _ 476 __ 60^_ 61 _ 78 __ 199 ___ 675 BKViking _____________________ 86 _ 96 _ 68 __ 250 __ 74 _ 80 _ 60^__ 214 _ 464 __ 54^_ 65 _76 __ 195 ___ 659 Don Sutherland1 ______________96 _ 92 _ 98 __ 286 __ 94 _ 74 _ 50^__ 228 _ 496 __ 42^_ 57 _52 __ 146 ___ 642 wxallannj _____________________ 82 _ 98 _ 84 __ 264 __ 58 _ 98 _ 52^__ 208 _ 472 __ 30^_ 21 _ 92 __ 143 ___ 615 RJay _________________________74 _ 52 _ 62 __ 188 __100 _ 90 _ 56^__ 246 _ 434 __ 54^_ 65 _ 60 __ 179 ___ 613 so_whats_happening _________ 80 _ 94 _ 88 __ 262 __ 90 _ 86 _ 38^__ 214 _ 476 __ 18^_ 29 _ 76 __ 123 ___ 599 ___ Consensus ______________ 84 _ 82 _ 92 __ 258 __ 74 _ 78 _ 42^ __ 194 _ 452 __ 33^_ 33 _80 __ 146 ___ 598 Scotty Lightning _____________ 84 _ 62 _ 82 __ 228 __ 80 _ 90 _ 44^__ 214 _ 442 __ 05 _ 10 _ 70 __ 085 ___ 527 hudsonvalley21 ______________ 92 _ 72 _ 88 __ 252 __ 74 _ 84 _ 36^ __ 194 _ 446 __ 02 _ 09 _ 62 __ 073 ___519 Tom __________________________72 _ 88 _ 78 __ 238 __ 48 _ 54 _ 30^__ 132 _ 370 __ 24^_ 23 _ 98 __ 145 ___ 515 wxdude64 ___________________ 74 _ 88 _ 94 __ 256 __ 62 _ 64 _ 32^__ 158 _ 414 __ 06 _ 14 _ 52 __ 072 ___ 486 ___ Normal __________________ 96 _ 82 _ 92 __270 __ 70 _ 70 _ 00 ___ 140 _ 410 __ 00 _ 00 _ 60 __ 060 ___470 Roger Smith ___________________52 _ 70 _ 78 __ 200 __ 10 _ 70 _ 44^__ 124 _ 324 ___ 15 _ 55 _ 76 __ 146 ___ 470 RodneyS ______________________ 22 _ 54 _ 44 __ 120 __ 20 _ 00 _ 00^__ 020 _ 140 __ 36^_ 37 _ 82 __ 155 ___ 295 ___________________________ Persistence (Nov 2024) _______ 00 _ 14 _ 00 __ 014 __ 32 _ 22 _ 84 __ 138 _ 152 __ 00 _ 00 _ 50 __ 050 ____ 202 ... It was not a good outing for Persistence. ================== Extreme forecast report ORD is a win for RJay (+1.5, high forecast) ATL is a win for wxallannj (+1.4) and a loss for StormchaserChuck (high forecast +2.0) IAH will be a win for BKViking (high forecast) DEN will be a win for StormchaserChuck (high forecast) PHX will be a shared win for RJay and BKViking (high forecasts) The rest of the forecasts did not qualify.

Even so, mild Jan 1890 had zero snowfall and Jan 1933 (Tr) is t-2nd lowest with 2008 and 2023. Jan 1934 is 5th lowest at 0.1" (it was between epic cold Dec 1933 and Feb 1934). So it probably always needed cold air nearby to snow at NYC. 68 of 156 Decembers have had less snow than 2024 at 2.8" so far. The 69th lowest Jan snowfall is 4.7" and for Feb it is 5.4", mar 2.5", Apr trace, so those would be "persistence" forecasts of winter snow, adding to a total of 15.4" (69th lowest winter total is 24.5" in 1976-77, 15.4" would rank 37th lowest and close to 15.3" in 1912-13 and 15.5" in 1970-71).

Feb 1981 was 15th warmest (of 156) at NYC and 13th warmest (of same 156 and 14th of 184 total, 1842 was lone addition not in NYC data) at Toronto, records were set in second half as first half was transitional from the cold January (ranked 19th coldest NYC and 18th coldest Toronto, even better cold ranks if urban heat island correction applied). For comparison, Jan 1994 ranked 17th NYC and t4th at Toronto. I believe there was also a potent cold shot in early Jan 2010 to Florida, followed by a mild spell mid-Jan and the epic storminess from Jan 30 to late Feb (best for mid-Atl).

Probably coastal mixing Dec 31-Jan 1 4-7" snow inland ... I like Jan 13-14 for a big coastal event. A clipper to near-coast scenario in between (Jan 7-8?) Large energy peak in theory for Jan 13-14, as long as resultant storm stays off coast it could be a blizzard scenario. (if it picks up too much warm air over TN-WV it could also become an inland snowstorm and coastal mixer). First faint signs of this one at 384h on GFS. Energy cycle is 8-10 days so I won't expect to see great progs for Jan 13-14 before Jan 4-5 and it will likely show as being for Jan 11-12 for a while then get slowed down as models pick up stronger forcing.

Be optimistic for NYE-NYD potential and watch Jan 13-15 for "big one" as there is a very large energy peak around Jan 14. One medium event possibly in between. I believe there is 20-30 per cent more forcing potential than models are capable of picking up on 5-15 days ahead.