Roger Smith

Applying some research into energy peaks and feeding that into projected patterns, it looks like GFS is on track for first ten days, so I will just comment past that interval. Large energy peak Dec 11-12 is already showing up on model runs and I believe the depiction today is about how this one plays out, a coastal secondary acting a bit like an Apps runner and so 40s to low 50s, windy and turning very cold afterwards (briefly), 1-3" snow potential for higher portions of region west and north. A more moderate energy peak around Dec 18-20 would likely be a Colorado to Ohio to Vermont storm track, so could produce some warm advection snows in e PA and n md. In a best case scenario, blocking begins to establish to north and forces this one to redevelop around Delmarva, then it could be a 4-6 inch snowfall event. For now I will go with low 40s, rain in I-95 corridor and mixed precip north. A better chance for a winter storm exists in period Dec 25-27 for a more classic nor'easter and as this is a very large energy peak, it could be a significant storm. If blocking fails to develop by then it would more likely be a cutter. But if there is going to be one big storm in December, I would say Dec 25-26 (26-27 timing more for New England). This approximately seven-day energy peak cycle will probably maintain into January and I look for very large amplitude upper patterns that could produce all sorts of anomalous conditions across eastern NA. February may return to more of a classic coastal storm track and I am more optimistic about Feb than Jan. A key transitional period will be around Jan 24-25. If a blockbuster Feb is on tap, signs of its arrival will be either a fast change from mild to cold around those dates, or the onset of a storm track similar to Jan 30 to early Feb 2010. I believe it will be a very active winter and not very similar to last winter, or 2015-16 in terms of only two wintry events of note. From snowfall contest I can see this is a fairly widespread viewpoint.

Nice work GAtech, and all top finishers, full standings can be seen in a table I created a while ago now back on page 2. Terpeast was able to secure fourth with closest DCA forecast. I was able to avoid last by any DCA freeze before Dec 28.

It could still be today with a midnight low as it's likely to drop well below 32F by 0600h. At mid-day only around 24F in locations near overnight cresting high. Could see 18-24 F around region by 0600h.

A very dry and relatively sunny November up by BC-WA border, in contrast to usual low cloud and mixed rain/snow sort of regime we expect. Quite cold also, GEG anomaly is +0.8F but I suspect we are closer to -2 or so. Not much snow yet even at higher elevations, cover ranges from trace amounts in valley to 1-2" in town to 4-6" alpine ski areas at around 5,000' nearby. Bears are not fully into hibernation and still looking for unlocked cars around town. Last few nights very cold, around 15 F.

The midnight low was 35F and it appears to be stuck around 36F at 0400h. Looks possible for a freeze before 0800h but not a done deal yet. Even so, there is no doubt about the outcome now, except for possible changes of ranks 4, 5 and 11 to end for last two in current ranking table (see previous table for details).

With a cold day expected tomorrow, here is a historical overview for NYC: Records for Nov 28: low max __ 24 1871 (min was 16) low min ___ 15 1930 (max was 27) The low max was tied second coldest of Nov to 28th, with 24F also on Nov 21st 1879 and they were one deg behind 23F on 22nd 1880. It was 25F again on Nov 29, 1871 for another record low max. These early season marks were all obliterated by 14F on Nov 30, 1875. The 1871 cold spell continued with 22F on Nov 30th and this is still second lowest max of month. The lowest min before 28th was 12F on Nov 27, 1932. Again, this was blown away by 5F on Nov 30, 1875. The second lowest 12F was tied on Nov 30, 1929. Since the 24 in 1871, 26 in 1901, and 27 in 1882 and 1930, the lowest max on Nov 28 was 31 in 1996. It was 35 in 2002, 2013. Since the 15F in 1930, the lowest min was 22 on several occasions, most recently 1951. It was 23 in 1996.

Last month of the 2023 contest year, but even so, a good month to enter for first time because (a) you will be fully participating in winter portion of contest Dec Jan Feb, and also (b) because you can enter the annual snowfall contest. For temperatures, predict anomalies relative to 1991-2020 averages for these nine locations: __ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ____ DEN _PHX _SEA and for snowfall, we substitute DTW, BUF and BTV for ATL _IAH _ PHX so the order of forecasts for snow is __ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _DTW _BUF ____ DEN _ SEA _ BTV (precise snowfall order does not matter so long as it's clear which locations are to be associated wit your numbers). The temperature contest has a deadline for on-time penalty free entries, 06z Friday Dec 1st. For the snowfall contest, I would appreciate having your entries soon but no exact deadline, let's say 10th of Dec will be when I might contact any stragglers. (predict total seasonal snowfall including any already fallen, into spring of 2024) By the way, a long-running "northeast US snowfall contest" blog site has gone dormant this fall and there is no call for forecasts, anyone know what's up? Some Am-Wx members participate in it, but I don't believe the organizer "TQ" is a member of Am-Wx. I hope all is well. I may see if I can collect some seasonal forecasts if the site does not come to life soon, and also, I may try to run some storm forecast contests similar to what normally occurs on that site, but here at American Weather. That will be announced separately if necessary (I hope it is not necessary). Over and out ... Nov scoring estimates are posted including annual updates. DonS has a pretty substantial lead over wxallannj and hudsonvalley21, the two closest and those three are our only forecasters ahead of Consensus at present time. Rjay is fourth and wxdude64 has overtaken RodneyS as of current scoring.

=== === <<<< ---- ANNUAL SCORING for JANUARY - NOVEMBER 2023 ---- >>>> === === ... ... one ranking difference so far, wxdude64 into 5th (was 6th) Best scores for the nine locations are shown with red highlight, best totals for regions in bold. FORECASTER ______________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent ___ c/e___ DEN_ PHX_ SEA __ west __ TOTALS DonSutherland1 ___________ 766 _710 _ 776 __2252 __860 _842 _728 __2430__4682 __789 _680 _776 __2245 ____6927 wxallannj __________________ 721 _700 _ 735 __ 2156 __845 _838 _624__ 2307 __4463 __741 _694 _696 __ 2131 ____6594 ___ Consensus _____________719 _678 _ 741 __ 2138__ 841 _738 _683 __2262 __4400 __ 657 _621 _ 822 __2100 ____6500 hudsonvalley21 ____________731 _684 _ 755 __2170 __856 _765 _673 __ 2294 __4464 __638 _572 _ 825 __ 2035 ____6499 RJay _______________________674 _644 _ 641 __1959 __ 785 _732 _726__ 2243 __4202 __ 633 _695 _ 827 __ 2155 ____ 6357 wxdude64 _________________714 _729 _ 672 __2115 __ 621 _778 _634 __ 2033 __4148 __ 729 _ 626 _ 794 __ 2149 ____6297 RodneyS __________________ 712 _668 _ 716 __2096 __ 677 _621 _708 __ 2006 __4102 __ 719 _ 556 _ 826 __ 2101 ____6203 Scotty Lightning ___________645 _640 _680 __1965 __ 741 _689 _634 __ 2064 __4029 __ 558 _474 _ 676 __ 1708 ____5737 ... pro-rated scores are added in brackets for most below this point in the table ... ... ... ... Tom's unimproved score is still (just) ahead of Roger Smith and 180 points below Scotty L ... ... ... ... Tom's pro-rated score is between 6th and 7th place above in the scoring table (just below RodneyS). ... ... ... BKViking's pro-rated score is just below Tom's and gross score just below Roger Smith. ... ... ... Stormchaser Chuck's pro-rated score is between 1st and 2nd, below only contest leader Don Sutherland1 and a little above 2nd place wxallannj. ... ... ... so_whats_happening has a pro-rated score between 7th and 8th similar to pro-rated scores for Tom and BKViking. ... ... ... rhino16 has a pro-rated score between 3rd and 4th just in front of RJay ..................................... ...... scores _ pro-rated to 11 Tom (10/11) _________________667 _612 _639 __1918 __616 _618 _632 __1866 __ 3784 __638 _490 _709 __1837 _____5621 (6183) Roger Smith ________________642 _556 _560 __1758 __611 _563 _708 __1882 __ 3640 __ 545 _586 _816 __1947 ____ 5587 BKViking (10/11) ____________642 _584 _657 __1883 __ 729 _608 _635 __1972 __ 3855 __503 _526 _650 __1679 ____ 5534 (6087) ___ Normal __________________606 _602 _566 __1774 __642 _636 _530 __1808 __ 3582 __ 578 _406 _706 __1690 ____ 5272 Rhino16 (7/11) ______________490 _510 _502 __ 1502 __546 _526 _292 __1364 __ 2866 __ 395 _302 _504 __1201 ____ 4067 (6391) so_whats_happening (7/11)_437 _395 _448 __ 1280 __498 _424 _411 __1333 __ 2613 __ 375 _406 _527 __ 1308 ____ 3921 (6155) Stormchaser Chuck (4/11)__251 _272 _268 ___791 __ 341 _ 174 _ 224 __ 739 __ 1530 __284 _300 _334 ___918 ____ 2448 (6688) Terpeast (1/11) _____________ 62 _ 44 _ 34 ____ 140 ___84 _ 86 _ 26 ____ 196 ___ 336 __ 10 __ 76 __ 60 ___ 146 ____ 482 (4438) rainsucks (1/11) ____________ 42 __32 _ 36 ____ 110 ___ 00 _ 66 _ 48 ____ 114 ___ 224 __ 50 __ 98 __ 84 ___ 232 ____ 456 (4204) - - - - - ___ Persistence ____________549 _450 _512 __1511 __688 _689 _642 __2019 ___3530 __ 420 _593 _612 __1625 ____5155 _______________________________________________________ Best Forecasts * shared with one other forecaster for one month (does not apply to Consensus or Normal, if they qualify, so does the high forecaster score whether tied or not) ^ shared with two other forecasters for one month (if applied to Normal, tied two forecast contest entrants) FORECASTER ____________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent_ c/e__ DEN_PHX_SEA__west __ Months DonSutherland1 ___________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ____3*___ 1* ___ 0____4 ___ 1 ___ 3*___ 4^___2*___ 1 ____3 _ Jan,Mar,Aug wxallannj __________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 1 ____3***__2*____1 ___ 1 ___ 2*___ 1 ___ 2*___ 0 ___ 2*____3* _ May(t),July, Nov hudsonvalley21 ____________2*____ 2*____ 1 ___ 1*____ 0^____1 ____1* ___0 ___ 0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____1* _ May(t) ___ Consensus ____________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 1 __ May RJay ______________________ 1 ____ 3 ____ 1 ____2 ____ 1*___3**___4 ___ 2 ___ 2*___ 0___ 4**^__ 1___ 1*____0 wxdude64 _________________1^____ 2 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1*____ 1 ____1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 1 _ Apr RodneyS __________________2*____ 1 ____ 2*___ 2 ____ 2*____ 1 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 2 ___3*___2 ___ 2* ___3 ___ 2 _ Jun,Sep Scotty Lightning ___________1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ____1 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1* ___1 ___ 0 ____ 0 Tom (10/11) ________________3*^___0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____2*___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0 Roger Smith _______________ 0 ____ 2*___ 2* ___ 2*____2**___ 1 ____1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 2 ___ 1 ____ 1 _ Oct BKViking (10/11) ___________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1*____ 0 ____0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2*^___2 ___1 ____ 0 ___ Normal _________________1^ ____ 3 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 Rhino16 (7/11) _____________2^____ 0 ____ 1*___ 2 ____ 1 ____ 2 ____ 0 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 1 __ Nov so_whats_happening (7/11) _0 ____ 0____ 2*___ 0 ____ 0 ____0____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0^ (Oct) Stormchaser Chuck (4/11)__2 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1 ____ 2 ____ 1* ____1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 _ Feb Terpeast (1/11) ____________ 1*____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ____0 rainsucks (1/11) ___________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ___ 0 ____0 (hudsonvalley21 has a tied top score for ORD (Mar) before 1 pt reduced by penalty). Shown as 0^ (so_whats_happening has a top score for October, before 1% penalty transferred it to Roger Smith. Shown as 0^ ----------------------------------------- EXTREME FORECAST SUMMARY So far, 77 of 99 forecasts qualify, 44 of them for warmest, and 33 for coldest ... Jan 6-2, Feb 5-3, Mar 6-3, Apr 5-3, May 3-2, June 1-8, July 4-2, Aug 4-3, Sep 1-3, Oct 5-1, Nov 4-3 ... 19 of 77 involve a loss where a second ranked forecast has high score. Two of those are a shared loss. FORECASTER _______ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _Apr _May _ Jun _Jul _Aug _Sep _Oct _Nov ____ TOTALS _ (adjusted for ties) RJay _________________ 5-0 _ 2-1 _ 2-0 _ 1*-0_ 0-0 _ 1-0 _4-0 _2*-0 _1-0 _0-0 _0-0 ____ 18-1 ______16.0 - 1.0 DonSutherland ______ 2-0 _ 1-0 _ 3*-1 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _1-0 _2-0 ____ 11-1 ______10.5 - 1.0 RodneyS _____________1-0 _ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 1-0 __ 1-0 _ 4*-1 _0-1 _ 1*-1 _0-0 _0-0 _0-0 ____ 10-3 ______ 9.0 - 2 Roger Smith _________ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0 _ 1-1*_ 0-0 _1*-0 _2*-0_0-0 _2**0_2-0 ____10-1 ______ 7.5 - 0.5 StormchaserChuck __ -- --_ 5-1 _ -- --_ 2-2 _ 2-0 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 0-1 _ --- __--- _____ 9-4 ______ 8.5 - 4.0 Rhino16 _____________ -- --_-- --_-- --_ -- -- _-- - _ ---- _ --- _ 2*^-0_3-0 _ ---_2*-0 ____7-0 _____ 5.33 - 0 wxallannj ____________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-1* 0-1* _ 2*-0_1-0 _ 0-1 _ 0-0 _ 2-0_ 1*-0____7-3 ______5.5 - 2.0 wxdude64 ___________1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-1 _2^-1 _0-2 _ 0-0 _ 1-1 ____ 5-5 _____ 3.83 - 5.0 hudsonvalley21 ______ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0 _1-0 _ 1*-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _2*-0_0-0 ____5-0 ______3.5 - 0.0 ___ Normal ___________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-1 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 3-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-1* _0-1 _0-0 ___ 5-3 _____ 4.5 - 2.5 Scotty Lightning _____ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 3-1 _ 0-1* _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 ____ 4-2 _____ 4.0 - 1.5 Tom __________________0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 1*-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _1^-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 ____ 3-0 _____ 1.83 - 0 BKViking _____________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _--- _ 0-0 ____ 2-0 _____ 1.5 - 0 rainsucks _____________ -- --_-- --_-- --_1*-0 _ -- - _ ---- _ --- _ --- _ --- __ ---- _---- ___ 1-0 ______0.5 - 0 Terpeast _____________ -- --_-- --_-- --_ -- --_ -- - _ 1*-0 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ ---- _ ---- ___ 1-0 ______ 0.5 - 0 so_whats_happening _0-0 _0-1 _ -- --_-- -- _ -- - _ 0-0 __ --- _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0 _0-0 ___ 1-1 ______ 0.5 - 1 ===========================================

Probably Tuesday if it doesn't get to 32F before midnight, air mass currently in low 20s over e ND and it will be moving down across fresh snow cover in the midwest, so would expect lows around 28F at DCA and 24F at IAD on Tuesday. I will guess it is 33F at midnight (28:05z).

Final scoring for Nov 2023 FORECASTER ____________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__ c/e __DEN_PHX_SEA__west____ TOTAL Rhino16 ____________________88 _ 96 _ 86 __ 270 __ 98 _ 94 _ 56 __ 248 __ 518 __ 64 _ 24 _ 52 __ 140 _____ 658 wxallannj __________________ 96 _ 88 _ 86 __ 270 __ 78 _ 94 _ 50 __ 222 __ 492 __ 68 _ 64 _ 24 __ 156 _____ 648 DonSutherland1 ___________ 94 _ 80 _ 78 __ 252 __ 72 _ 64 _ 82 __ 218 __ 470 __ 84 _ 64 _ 00 __ 148 _____ 618 hudsonvalley21 ___________ 88 _ 62 _ 62 __ 212 __ 80 _ 88 _ 82 __ 250 __ 462 __ 42 _ 50 _ 50 __ 142 _____ 604 so_whats_happening ______ 96 _ 74 _ 66 __ 236 __ 72 _ 72 _ 74 __ 218 __ 454 __ 48 _ 48 _ 50 __ 146 _____ 600 ___ Consensus _____________98 _ 78 _ 74 __ 250 __ 70 _ 68 _ 76 __ 214 __ 464 __ 38 _ 44 _ 48 __ 130 _____ 594 RJay ______________________ 94 _ 74 _ 66 __ 234 __ 78 _ 78 _ 46 __ 202 __ 436 __ 54 _ 56 _ 44 __ 154 _____ 590 Tom _______________________100 _ 82 _ 74 __ 256 __ 64 _ 60 _ 92 __216 __472 __ 34 _ 38 _ 44 __ 116 _____ 588 BKViking ___________________96 _ 78 _ 74 __ 248 __ 66 _ 58 _ 90 __ 214 __ 462 __ 28 _ 34 _ 62 __ 124 _____ 586 wxdude64 _________________76 _ 90 _ 92 __ 258 __ 42 _ 52 _ 94 __ 188 __ 446 __ 30 _ 58 _ 52 __ 140 _____ 586 Roger Smith _______________ 92 _100 _96 __288 __ 32 _ 44 _ 80 __ 156 __ 444 __ 10 _ 34 _ 76__ 120 _____ 564 ___ Normal _______________ 94 _ 74 _ 66 __ 234 __ 68 _ 64 _ 86 __ 218 __ 452 __ 24 _ 14 _ 66 __ 104 _____ 556 Scotty Lightning __________ 74 _ 64 _ 66 __ 204 __ 68 _ 84 _ 66 __ 218 __ 422 __ 24 _ 34 _ 66 __ 124 _____ 546 RodneyS ___________________84 _ 72 _ 64 __ 220 __ 62 _ 36 _ 72 __ 170 __ 390 __ 10 _ 16 _ 48 __ 074 _____ 464 ------------------------------------ Persistence (Oct 2023)_____48 _ 22 _ 00 __ 070 __ 70 _ 84 _ 78 __ 232 __ 302 __ 52 _ 96 _ 52 __ 200 _____ 502 ========================== Extreme forecasts DCA _ Not a qualifier at -0.3. NYC _ Not a qualifier at -1.3. Third coldest forecast was high score. BOS _ (-1.7) _ A win for Roger Smith (-1.5) and a loss for wxdude64 (-2.1) with lowest forecast ORD (+1.6), ATL (+1.8) _ Two wins for rhino16 with warmest forecasts, wxallannj shares win for ATL SEA (-1.7) _ A win for Roger Smith with coldest forecast (-0.5). IAH _ (-0.7) _ A win for wxdude64 with lowest forecast (-0.4) DEN (+3.8), PHX (+4.3) _ Two wins for Don Sutherland, warmest forecasts (+3.0, +2.5) ... wxallannj shares win for PHX ________________ Annual update follows ... to be adjusted as Nov scores are finalized. ============ (actual forecasts follow) Scotty Lightning __________ +1.0 _ +0.5 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ____ 0.0 _ +1.0 __0.0 hudsonvalley21 ___________ +0.3 _ +0.6 _+0.2 ___+0.6 _+1.2 _+0.2 ___ +0.9 _+1.8 _+0.8 RJay _______________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____+0.5 _+0.7 _+2.0 ___ +1.5 _+2.1 _ +1.1 ___ Normal ________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____0.0 __ 0.0 __0.0 ____0.0 __ 0.0 __0.0 DonSutherland1 ____________ 0.0 _ -0.3 _-0.6 ___ +0.2 __0.0 _ +0.2 ___+3.0 _+2.5 _+3.6 BKViking ___________________-0.1 _ -0.2 _-0.4 ___ -0.1 _ -0.3 _ -0.2 ___ +0.2 _+1.0 _+0.2 Tom _______________________ -0.3 _ -0.4 _-0.4 ___ -0.2 _-0.2 _ -0.3 ___ +0.5 _+1.2 _+1.1 ___ Consensus _____________-0.4 _ -0.2 _-0.4 ___+0.1 _ +0.2 _ +0.5 ___+0.7 _+1.5 _+0.9 so_whats_happening ______ -0.5 __0.0 __0.0 ___ +0.2 _+0.4 _+0.6 ___ +1.2 _+1.7 _+0.8 wxallannj __________________ -0.5 _-0.7 _-1.0 ____+0.5 _ +1.5 _+1.8 ___ +2.2 _+2.5 _+2.1 Roger Smith _______________ -0.7 _-1.3 _ -1.5 ___ -1.8 _ -1.0 _ +0.3 ___ -0.7 _ +1.0 _ -0.5 Rhino16 ____________________-0.9 _-1.5 _-1.0 ____ +1.5 _ +1.5 _+1.5 ___ +2.0 _+0.5 _+0.7 RodneyS ___________________ -1.1 _ +0.1 _+0.1 ___ -0.3 _ -1.4 _ +0.7 ___ -0.7 _+0.1 _+0.9 wxdude64 _________________ -1.5 _ -1.8 _ -2.1 ____ -1.3 _ -0.6 _ -0.4 ___ +0.3 _+2.2 _+0.7 ------------------------------------ Persistence (Oct 2023)_____+2.3 _+2.6 _+4.4 ___+3.1 _+1.0 _+0.4 ____+1.4 _+4.5 _+0.7

Dec 26-27 for first significant snowfall, could be small amounts before it. Won't break a daily record falling on same date as 1947 storm but could be 10-15 in.

TOTBALAAUYSTFW (there ought to be a law against acronyms unless you show the full wording)

Nov 28 looks like next opportunity? Table now set for Nov 28 anyway. I can't even get to 32F as a high here.

Any indication of whether date (Nov 22) was O.S. or converted to N.S.? I wanted to check against lunar dates but would need to know that detail (would be Dec 2, 1641 N.S. or if converted would have been observed on Nov 12, 1641 O.S.). Gregorian calendar was not used in British colonies or Britain until 1752. The "Daniel Defoe" 1703 event in south coast England was experienced as being on Nov 26-27 but would have been Dec 7-8 in Gregorian calendar, and it was at a new moon. (10 days difference to 1700, 11 days after 1700 was a leap year in Julian but not in Gregorian calendar). Britain finally joined the continent which had converted around 1582, in 1752, dropping 3rd to 13th of September from calendars. This was the one occasion on which the GFS 16-day verified /jk ...

I would agree a warmer climate is partly responsible for the increase in rainfall since about 1971 (I would say July 1971 is where the trend really reversed), but note a few periods in the period 1901 to 1940 had a few wet years consecutively, such as 1902-03, 1919-20 and 1926-27, 1936-38. The dry climate period was most evident from about 1941 to 1970, and also first part of the 1880s decade was notably dry except for 1882. The ten driest years for NYC since 1869 are (in order) 1965, 1964, 1910, 1935, 1963, 1970, 1885t1895, 1954, 1892. The next ten are 2001, 1883, 1931, 1949, 1956, 1881, 1957, 1880, 1943, 1950. After 2001, the next driest years in recent decades was 25th driest 1981 and 28th driest 2012. The ten wettest years were 1983, 2011, 1972, 2018, 1989, 2007, 1975, 1990, 2006, 2021 -- all since 1972. The next ten show a bit of scatter -- 1903, 2003, 1889, 1913, 1973, 1984, 1971, 1996, 1927, 2005. That brings the post 1971 total to 16 of 20, and by 30th place it is 21 of 30. So there may be other factors to consider as heavier rainfall and warmth were not well correlated in previous examples (1931, a very warm year, was quite dry, and so were 1949 and 1953; conversely, 1902-03 and 1926-27 were quite cool especially summers). I would imagine Pacific influences can be found in any in-depth study but also, I recall that around 1971-72 there was an unusually deep eastern arctic vortex near Baffin Island, perhaps the first signs of large-scale changes underway in Canada's arctic climate which began to warm rapidly by the 1970s. As shown by 1883 and 1885 being dry years, a lot of arctic air flowing south inhibits rainfall in the northeastern U.S. (probably southeast and central U.S. rainfalls are higher). As shown by 1930s, severe heat and drought in central regions often fails to transfer to east coast although 1930, 1931, 1935 and 1939 were all relatively dry. The period 1962 to 1965 was exceptionally dry (1962 was 21st driest and you can see top five status of 1963-65 above). These years all set records for sunshine hours at Toronto and were generally quite dry there also (1965 not as notably, storm track was quite active in 1965 in lower Great Lakes region). Oct 1963 and Feb 1964 were both records by wide margins. Toronto's climate record is different in that there has been an ongoing rainfall decrease from very wet peaks in mid 19th century, only recently has this trend reversed a bit. The ten wettest years at Toronto are 1843, 1878, 1870, 1842, 2013, 1977, 1996, 1855, 1841, 1986 but as four of those are pre-NYC (1869-) the overlapping ten are 1878, 1870, 2013, 1977, 1996, 1986, 1945, 2008, 1869, 1893. (another three pre-1869 years intervene before 1893 as well, 1852, 1857 11th-12th and 1859 is 15th). Toronto's ten driest years are 1933, 1963, 1874, 1949, 1934, 1882, 2016, 1872, 1988, 1938. The dust bowl influence was stronger and 1965 ranks 66th wettest of 183 years, 1964 was 71st driest. The signals are not always opposite but correlations are low and probably a bit on the negative side even for these relatively close locations, I would guess there is a strong negative correlation in annual precip between say NYC and GRB or STL.

Guilty as charged, I wasn't intending to be overly critical just analytical, and I certainly do tend to go too high on snowfall in your region (irony alert noted), but it's interesting that I actually went lower than outcome in 2015-16, the only time I managed to finish in top half of contest, I was near middle of pack in one or two others but I am usually way too high and it's not from any "what the heck it's just for fun" attitude but I make a genuine error in forecast. If I ever foresaw low numbers I would predict low numbers, same goes for first freeze contest, I just predict what I believe will happen, not what I hope, partly because I don't have any strong reason to hope for any particular outcomes. This winter a quick look at forecasts so far would suggest I am not far from consensus so that could be a good sign, as it was true of all three of the best winters above. Perhaps half of the low forecasts are yet to be revealed however. I notice that in the contest years I looked at, the range of forecasts was almost the same in each contest (last winter generally a bit lower), and forecasts varied a lot less than the outcomes varied. It would be interesting to see who (if anybody) had a consistent better than consensus variability, in other words, who was consistently up in heavy snow winters and down in low ones. I would imagine there are a few showing skill, I do better at this further north and always have trouble processing how difficult it can be to get all factors to converge for snow south of 40N. Anyway, the averages for the recent seven winters (after the two really good ones) are a lot lower than climatology and if you predicted those seven-year values you would have done better than most, in fact those seven-year averages would almost have won in 2020-2021.

I am relatively optimistic for your chances too. All signs point to a strong ridge near the west coast and frequent outbreaks of very cold air from north-central Canada. Offshore water temperatures are high and seem likely to stay warm as Labrador current is unusually weak. This does play into the all or nothing paradigm in case this Atlantic warmth forces a high amplitude upper pattern and ideal snow production runs further inland, but I get the feeling the cold air will be battling with the warm ocean in the region between DC and the gulf stream; this sets up the question of whether storms will tuck near coast or progress faster east; in the faster option a series of 2-5 inch falls could be expected, which is still an improvement over most of the winters recently. I would say a good chance of at least one larger snowfall event and that to occur in February. I have entered predictions for snowfall in contest and I believe they are a bit lower than yours but only by a few inches. So I hope your optimism is rewarded. I believe it could also be colder than 1991-2020 average by 1-3 F deg with Dec and Feb favored over Jan where there could be a reversal for a while. Another factor worth keeping in mind is lunar declination is at its absolute max range of 29 deg (an 18.6-year cycle) that research associates with powerful storm development, blocking, and unusual upper air patterns. Since a normal upper air pattern is a killer for marginal regions to see snow, I like this variation. Year to year variability can also be high at this point in the lunar declination cycle; so the fact that last winter was so warm and snow free could be part one of a flip-flop that is typical of high dec winters, and it applies to seasons as well as year to year. This is why I think one out of three months could be a lot warmer, let's say mid-January could be milder without taking away snow potential from other intervals. Two best chances for a big snowfall event appear to be around 27-29 Dec and 5-10 Feb.

Wave is embedded near e PA w NJ but not a lot of dynamics in system, will possibly lead to rumbles of TRW- type, 55-60 air mass will be close to e LI as wave passes. Not likely to act like a squall line except later on over open water late tonite.

I looked back at previous snowfall contests, first point being, this is actually the tenth one, they date back to winter 2014-15. In winter 2013-14 there was a contest to predict how often winter storm warnings would be issued. But no snowfall contest in evidence in thread titles. The history of contest results is interesting, in all but three winters, just about all forecasts were too high. Over nine contests, about 85% of forecasts were too high in total and probably about 75 to 80 per cent were too high for specific locations. It would be even worse except for an opposite tendency in 2015-16. I show the nine and also last seven -year average values to see how they do in 2023-24. I continue to think that this winter will be a good one, so I won't transfer those to my forecast (and I may regret it) ... Winter _____ BWI _ DCA _ IAD _ RIC _____ winner (total error) ______ notes 2022-23 ___ 0.2 __ 0.4 __ 0.4 __ 0.0 _____ Little Village Wx +13.0 __ all fcsts too high in total snow 2021-22 ___14.4 __13.2 __15.8 __ 4.7 _____ I Used to hate Cold (4.6) __ about 2/3 fcsts too high, just a few were too low 2020-21 ___10.9 __ 5.4 __ 12.0 __ 7.0 _____NorthArlington101 (3.1) __ about 3/4 fcsts too high at all locations 2019-20 ____1.8 ___ 0.6 __ 2.9 __ 1.5 ______ Prestige Worldwide (3.6) __ all fcsts too high in total snowfall 2018-19 ___ 21.1 __16.9 __21.6 _ 13.9 _____ Olafminesaw (7.9) won tiebreaker with Stormpc also 7.9, RodneyS close at 8.2 ___________________________________________ about 3/4 of all forecasts were too high despite a fairly good outcome 2017-18 ____15.4 __ 7.8 _ 11.9 __ 12.4 _____ Olafminesaw (6.8) ____ almost all forecasts were too high in total snow 2016-17 ____ 3.0 __ 3.4 __ 7.3 ___ 7.1 ______ stormpc (16.1) ____ almost all forecasts were too high in total snow 2015-16 ____35.1 __ 22.2 __ 34.3 __15.1 ____ shadowzone (7.0) ___ forecasts scattered around result but 2/3 too low _________________________________________ almost all snow was on Jan 23: with only 0.3" at IAD before event, _________________________________________ post-storm totals were listed as 30.0, 18.8, 29.8 (29.5 storm), 12.1 _________________________________________ so rest of winter was 5.1, 3.4, 4.5, 3.0 if storm values were not revised 2014-15 ____ 28.7 __18.3 __36.9 __12.8 ____ nwbaltimorewx (3.4) ____ forecasts scattered around result _____________________________ _________________________________ averages ___ 14.5 __ 9.8 __ 15.8 __ 8.3 ____ average winning error total (6.2") _ 1.5 to 1.6 per location past seven __ 9.5 __ 6.9 __ 10.3 __ 6.7 =============== From above it can be seen best forecast all-time was 3.1" total error (NorthArlington101 2019-20). Nwbaltimorewx was close at 3.4" in 2014-15. Keywords: optimism, climatology denial, occasional surprise endings (later edit _ irony alert noted)

Still looking very high, Labrador current is weak and not pushing very hard past Newfoundland, Gulf stream is keeping it toasty just south of benchmark to just east of Delmarva. If enough cold air gets sucked down by troughs, a very potent situation for any developing nor'easters. Just as long as it doesn't turn them to cold rainstorms. Pattern ahead looks a bit like 1917 or 1933, two years that saw extreme cold later in Dec and a continuation into Jan-Feb 1918, while in 1934 a pause in Jan and return to severe cold in Feb. https://www.weather.gc.ca/data/analysis/351_100.gif Note also 10 C readings in Great Lakes suggesting potent snow squall banding can occur in future cold surges. Ice is also slow to develop on hudson bay. Sea temps of -1 C are still open (salt) water. Oceans freeze at about -2 C. Any -2 or lower readings are basically meaningless on maps as ice is present so it becomes a question of how thick that ice is.

Anomalies and projections ... _____________________ DCA _NYC _BOS ___ ORD _ATL _IAH ____ DEN _PHX _SEA ___ (anom 15d) _____+0.2 _ -2.0 _ -2.5 ___+4.0 _+2.0 _+0.3 ___ +7.2 _+5.0 _+0.9 ___ (anom 24d) _____+1.4 _ -0.5 _ -1.3 ___+3.8 _+3.5 _+0.1 ___ +6.0 _+4.7 _-0.4 16 __ (p anom 30d) _ -1.0 _ -1.5 _ -2.0 ____+2.0 _+1.0 _+0.5 ___ +3.0 _+3.0 _+0.5 25 __ (p anom 30d) _+0.5 _ -1.5 _ -2.0 ____+2.0 _+2.0 _+0.5 ___ +4.0 _+3.5 _-0.5 30 __ (final anom) ___-0.3 _ -1.3 _ -1.7 ____+1.6 _+1.8 _-0.7 ___ +3.8 _+4.3 _ -1.7 (Nov 15) _ After a few milder days, eastern regions look quite cold later in Nov, and western warm spell will eventually reverse to colder but not before a large surplus is built up at DEN and PHX. Based on projected anomalies, consensus score would be 692. (Nov 25) _ New projections a bit warmer in general, and overall consensus scoring 616. Preliminary scoring to follow. (Nov 30) _ Final anomalies are being estimated today and will be fine tuned to actuals by Friday. Scoring will be adjusted. (Dec 1) _ All final anomalies now confirmed.

I was reading elsewhere (NYC) that OKC set both a record high and low for the date on Nov 11, 1911. A strong cold front pushed through after it got up to 83F around early afternoon, and by late evening it was 17F. Both are still records today. Nov 12 also has a record low of 14F set in this event in 1911. It is probably the strongest cold front ever to cross regions of the central to eastern U.S. in weather observational history. Other stations set records too but few of those were both on Nov 11, they were highs on 11th and lows on 12th for other places. The front arrived after 0100h in eastern regions and there, the singularity is the drop between highs early 12th and lows later in the day. A strong low tracked OK-IA-ne ON into w Quebec to drag in the arctic air.

BWI 32.3” DCA 23.7” IAD 37.1” RIC 14.7” SBY: 22.5” get ready for Feb 5-6 to rock your world

Today's record low of 28F (1875) at NYC was one of 29 (25.67 reduced for ties) set relative to 1869-1900 "starter era" and of those, 14.5 of these have survived to present, the largest total of surviving records of any year. 1888 started with 37.67 (that were records as of end of 1900) but 1888 is now reduced to 12.75 surviving records. (decimal counts are for tied records). On Nov 3, 1875 the high was 41F but the record low maximum is 37F in 1879. That was first of three (37, 35, 35) but a record high still stands for Nov 12 (76F). Early to mid-Oct 1879 were also very warm in 1879. Nov 30, 1875 (14, 5) has monthly records for low max and min for Nov. Further records were set in early Dec 1875 and the pattern flipped to very mild around Dec 20th with Jan 1876 a very mild month. Since 1875, the lowest reading at NYC for Nov 3rd was soon afterwards, 30F in 1879, and 31F in 1912 are not beaten since in each case. Successive later lows at NYC were 32F (1951, also 1911), and 35F (1959, 1996, also 1926). 36F in 1980, 2002 and 2006 were next coldest in recent years. Yesterday's low of 35F at NYC was coldest since 34F in 2002, which was coldest since 33F in 1976, second coldest 31F in 1965 (tied 1875) and record low was 30F in 1887.

Yes, I think you had a slightly higher score than I did for October before 1% late penalties. Will note it in the overall log (still being updated in Sep thread and due to move to Dec thread around Jan 4, 2024 after taking care of Dec and 2023 business. I can always send a regular p.m. reminder on 30th or 31st of months ending to anyone wanting a reminder. Tom and BKV missed one due to medical issues, and I trust all is well with them now. Your pro-rated score is a fairly good guide to performance even if you miss one or two. But it's not perfect because it partly depends on average score in months you missed. I continue to be open to any ideas about expanding our field of forecasters, as you all know, I have tried various outreach attempts like regional forum entry gates, inter-regional contests, and friends inviting friends -- all with very little success but on the other hand we have a fairly dedicated crew of about a dozen so it's worth going on. I will talk to StormchaserChuck about regular entries too, he seems to be a potential contest leader or top few anyway. Same can be said about Rhino16 who has been a bit more frequent in appearances. You'll see my annual exercise in futility, appeals to join contest, in your regional forums in December, please encourage anyone you know on Am-Wx to join in. It seems like a total boycott by GL/OV and New England and southeast states after years where they were well represented. I can't really identify any obvious reason other than possibly consistent butt hurt administered by NYC and mid-Atlantic, but when we expanded to western regions some may have felt it was too large a task or too big an ask. I like the coast to coast forecast contest on a coast to coast weather forum and if people are entering just to develop forecast skill, I feel that western accuracy is part of the overall puzzle to be solved.