Roger Smith

The outcome very much depends on results. Snowfalls will be what snow measurements reveal, except at DCA where you have to multiply by 1.25. A wide range of outcomes are possible, we will know which verifies by near the end of the event, or in some cases, at the end. Thanks for paying us to say all these things which amount to what you see is what you get.

True story about the number one analogue (March 2-3 1980) ... I was briefly working at Accu-weather to provide info about Canadian forecasting markets they might investigate, and their practice before a big storm was to have every forecaster draw up a map of personal snowfall estimates. Joe Bastardi of all people was in that group. I was drawing up maps for them, not providing forecasts, as I am not (was not) a degreed met, but I did draw up a forecast map and had it on a wall full of maps, and as I recall it had some pretty aggressive numbers in s.e. VA. They would then discuss all the maps ... The one person in the room who didn't say "oh that looks wrong" about my numbers was JB who I think had similar numbers on his map. You may recall, there had not been a lot of snow anywhere in the winter of 1979-80, I recall one moderate fall of about 6" across PA around Feb 10th maybe, otherwise bare ground especially further north, into the Great Lakes and northeast. Anyway, we ended up busting low but had some influence on the group consensus. (well Joe did probably) The storm dropped well over 20" in Norfolk and Virginia Beach. I think it dropped 6 to 10 inches in the DC to Baltimore region and cut off around York, PHL and ACY. At the time it was record cold all over the eastern states, this would have been maybe Feb 29th 1980 or March 1st at the latest. It was an interesting two months of weather that followed, including a monster cutoff rainstorm over the northeast in early April and hot weather records from the mid-south to the east coast in late April. My time there ended on April 30th and I didn't maintain any connections but I have met some of the well-known people at Accu-wx and it is quite the hive of weather activity hidden away in the university town of State College PA. I recall Joe as a very friendly and gregarious person who often went balls to the wall compared to the more conservative senior forecasters, and was regarded as the rising star at the time. I think I was more of a setting moon. That's where I developed my interest in long-range forecasting, they were looking at getting into that area, and I participated in a couple of brainstorming sessions, once again, maps on a wall. I remember April 1980 coming out with huge positive anomalies over the south central U.S. in advance of a very hot summer. It all grabbed my interest and I began to look for methodologies that might work using date-shifted lunar analogues (a similar pattern where you refined the timing by shifting the dates to make lunar calendar similar ... I had worked out somehow that this is the method used by the Farmers Almanac, although they based their similar years on things like solar cycles and previous few months of anomalies. I worked this out by first figuring out what winter they were using and noticing a date shift that was explained by the moon's orbital cycles in that winter compared to 1979-80. Was it worth it? Maybe not, it has been a voice in the wilderness sort of journey to say the least. But it is what it is.

Feb 1st-2nd, 2026

They are real and they are spectacular.

I guess you get a double 970 low if the model can't justify a 950 center in between them. To justify that would require that the 522 dm upper low become a 510 or 504 type of center. Then it explodes in that extreme baroclinic zone.

Yep, the same low 100 miles east of Nantucket instead of 100 miles east of s DMV would give e MA what this model run gives Norfolk (30" snow). A track up towards Long Island and then over the islands and cape, with those pressures and air masses, would be a BECS like 1888. Or maybe it stalls where the Bliz of 78 stalled. Of course maybe none of the above, but I think this early in the winter season a block and a right turn are not realistic, that is March into April sort of weather.

To be clear the GFS does not show it heading for Nova Scotia, it's going due east towards the Azores. But I figure the eventual solution will be a direct hit on New England anyway. You drive all that arctic air into the eastern Gulf and Florida, it's going to rocket north like the 1993 superstorm or the 1899 blizzard did. These rare intrusions of extreme cold into those latitudes are supportive of explosive cyclogenesis. So is the tidal energy of full moon (Feb 2-3). This thing has huge storm written all over it. (my mind is doing a Jebwalk)

My gut feeling is that if you drive that much arctic air into the eastern Gulf, there will be a more vigorous northward return flow up the east coast. A storm that gets trapped and shunted east like the GFS is trying to depict would likely be less dynamic. Such intrusions of cold air are associated with superstorms like Mar 1993 and the Blizzard of Feb 1899. So the models with more robust northward tracks are probably handling this better.

Verbatim the 06z GFS is a crusher for s.e. VA probably 24-36 inches and only analogue I know about would be March 1-2, 1980. I believe that one gave DC area 5-10" and cut off in s.e. PA to ACY. Stalled, looped and went off towards Newfoundland. Northeast states stayed dry and very cold (record cold in fact) Disclaimer -- not my forecast for what this will actually do, just a p.b.p. of the model run.

You're in the cone. But verbatim that would be like 36" of snow for s.e. VA. A close analogue to Mar 1-2, 1980.

Bet it goes for Nantucket. That arctic high is about where the Blizzard of 1899 central recordbreaker high was (direct hit on NYC) 2-13-1899.

This has explosive potential as a major energy peak tries to shift a big cold high leaning hard on it from the north and west. The Euro (00z) said expect a heavy snowfall in s.e. VA and some snow north into s.e. PA and s NJ but the low would then head due east, skunking NY, LI, NE etc. Other models share the wealth more widely, or hint that everyone will miss out. Would not expect a fast trend to model consensus on this. One thing is fairly obvious, there won't be a warm nose for NAM to bring in from the woods. Extreme cold is returning with that high. And this time there is no primary inland to deal with, the coastal is all or nothing. Given the fact that at least one model depiction looks like the twin brother of 3-12-1888, it would be an understatement to say this has potential. But we've used that term more often than actual. The 06z NAM looks like it is getting ready at 84h to carve out a trough near 75W and would probably evolve more like GEM than Euro. But how often does one see the 498 dm thickness contour dropping south towards TN? Models won't have a lot of analogues to consult on this. I am coming to belief that Euro is currently too weak in development and a storm will move up the coast. As long as it isn't pushed a bit too far east things will be ripe for a large to very large storm impacting land.

I know nothing of this but having to spend time in southern California with movie stars and actresses, when you could be trapped in a blizzard in New England sounds like an awful existence and I can't imagine the misery of it. Well I'm a weather weenie so maybe I can.

That's the other guy's caddy.

ECM reminds me of March 1-2 1980, heavy snow Norfolk and Virginia Beach. 5" to DC, traces to se PA-c NJ. Clear and very cold further north. I am not endorsing it, just saying that's what it looks like.

BOS added a bit ... I see these totals for 25th-26th ... BOS 23.2" _ I think they are done now but as that is above all forecasts any more now to morning would be irrelevant to contest results BDL 17.3" ALY 12.6" PHL 9.3" DCA 6.9" _ the DC folk say this is undermeasured so I would not be too surprised to see a revision before too long, to 8 or 9 inches possibly. BWI had 11.3" NYC 11.4" _ where was the undermeasure when I needed it, huh? ------------------ also ORH 22.4" (missed it by 0.3" my bad) and ABE 11.8" ... EWR 11.7" ... ISP 13.2"

Buy salt.

I ask myself that same question. (in metric)

This is all the winters that got cancelled since 2022.

GFS is one degree east of a perfect track for all of New England and the track it has now is pretty good for eastern New England, I would say. What's one degree in 144 hours? (one half of a mile per hour that's what). Course, it could shift 2 deg east then it's NS in the jackpot zone. As DIT says, snow breeds snow. You'll do fine.

YYZ has blown past the snowiest January there (1999). This was also tops for downtown in a longer period of record as shown in this table of top ten monthly snowfalls. TOP TEN COUNTDOWNS for each month (in cm) TORONTO CITY 1843 to 2025 Rank __ JAN _______ FEB ____ MAR _____ APR ______ MAY ____ OCT _____ NOV ______ DEC _ 10 ___ 1994_75.4__ 1950_70.9__ 1923_52.1 __ 1943_20.3 __ 1851_ 1.3 __ 1868_ 5.1 __ 1997_29.0 __ 1970_67.8 _ 09 ___ 1914_76.7__ 1893_73.2__ 1936_52.8 __ 1885_21.8 __ 1861_ 1.3 __ 1869_ 5.8 __ 1879_29.5 __ 1864_68.8 _ 08 ___ 1884_79.8__ 2008_74.4__ 1852_53.6 __ 1932_22.1 __ 1885_ 1.3 __ 1843_ 6.4 __ 1874_29.7 __ 1951_71.1 _ 07 ___ 1875_82.0__ 1896_75.2__ 1883_58.7 __ 1901_22.4 __ 1966_ 1.3 __ 1880_ 6.9 __ 1995_31.2 __ 1850_74.9 _ 06 ___ 1852_85.9__ 1861_75.4__ 1873_64.0 __ 1852_23.9 __ 1963_ 1.8 __ 1906_ 7.1 __ 1951_34.0 __ 1855_74.9 _ 05 ___ 1895_90.9__ 1900_77.9__ 1843_65.3 __ 1975_24.4 __ 1909_ 2.0 __ 1875_ 9.7 __ 1933_37.3 __ 2000_76.2 _ 04 ___ 1873_99.6__ 1924_82.3__ 1875_76.2 __ 1966_24.6 __ 1855_ 2.3 __ 1925_10.7__ 1898_39.6 __ 1944_92.5 _ 03 ___1867_106.7__1868_83.8__ 1867_84.8 __ 1874_27.9 ___ 1923_ 3.8 __ 1865_11.4__ 1940_42.2 __ 1876_92.7 _ 02 ___1871_110.7__ 1869_100.8__ 1876_112.0 __ 1857_32.8 ___ 1907_ 4.1 __ 1969_12.2__ 1873_49.8 ___ 1859_95.0 _ 01 ___1999_118.4__ 1846_117.1__ 1870_158.5 __ 1979_37.6 ___ 1875_ 7.9 __ 1844_30.5__ 1950_57.2 ___ 1872_96.5 ... ... ... ... ... ... Feb 2025 was 13th at 66.9 cm ... Note: 40" is 101.6 cm ... 30" is 76.2 cm ... 20" is 50.8 cm ... 10" is 25.4 cm Top five months are March 1870, Jan 1999 (now probably Jan 2026), Feb 1846, Mar 1876, Jan 1871.

If we're going pro, I am going to be Don's caddy.

Okay, I can post the numbers from climate summaries (the last one we need shows up soon after midnight). It will be the total snowfall for 25th-26th as shown in climate summaries and where possible on CF6 forms too. Your scoring system is basically total of absolute errors, should probably be to decimal places as results and some forecasts have a decimal involved. But whatever it will work out the same probably. As to the forecasts for "your location" some of those would involve taking a forum report, a few can be verified the same way as above. But likely you wouldn't include them in scoring, right?

How much for PHL? They will be in a subsidence zone, seven feet and 80 mph, do they have any tall buidlings? All I know is the Liberty Bell and the Flyers play there. Otherwise total ignorance, I drove through once but was too frightened to look.

So far, what I know for sure ... YYZ reported 46.2 cm snow and 17.8 mm liquid equivalent (ratios of 26:1 which is consistent with low temps and lake effect). Downtown Toronto reported 20.8 mm liquid. At the same ratio their snowfall would be around 54 cm. The tweet shown in the thread earlier says 62 cm snow with 47 in six hours. I assume it refers to the downtown observation site, if not, it was observed very close to there (it is a five minute walk from Queens Park to Trinity College, unless you're with a pretty co-ed of course) ... but enough about that ... I will see the snow depth changes tomorrow. Both YYZ and downtown had 15-17 cm on the ground before this storm began. The delta snow depth will be an indication of snowfall but can estimate the settle factor from the YYZ reports. Looks like no additional snow today. 46.2 17.8