Roger Smith

Comparing DCA predictions for low error forecasts (I include all in current order of total departure for known outcomes BWI, IAD and RIC Nov 2) Table makes it easy to assess your contest situation going forward (e.g., morbid, pitiful, terrible) For entries already past date of DCA prediction, I add in DCA error to date since it will only increase now. I will edit table to adjust DCA error already accumulated. I also added "wins if DCA" info for contenders. Tiebreaker winning dates are ** total errors and "wins if DCA" info edited Nov 25 _ table for first DCA freeze Nov 28 as it appears unlikely a freeze will occur Nov 26-27 (25 looked possible but reported as 34F, table now for Nov 28) DCA _ Nov 28 _ Final Results as date verified (evening low) ** can no longer improve total error _ now final, DCA date later FORECASTER _____ IAD,BWI,RIC _____ DCA fcst ___ total err 28th __ tiebreaker **GAtech ____________ 3 _______________ Dec 1 ________ 6 _______ +2.1 BristowWx ___________ 5 _______________ Nov 23 ______ 10 _______ +3.3 southMDwatcher ____ 4 _______________ Nov 19 ______ 13 _______ +2.0 **Terpeast __________ 21 ______________ Nov 29 ______ 22 _______ +1.0 nj2va ________________ 10 _______________Nov 15 ______ 23 _______ +1.9 nw baltimore wx ____ 15 _______________ Nov 18 ______25 _______ +1.2 biodhokie ___________ 15 _______________Nov 15 ______ 25 ________+0.7 WinterWxLuvr _______ 8 _______________ Nov 11 ______ 25 ________ -0.2 Mattie g ____________ 19 _______________ Nov 20 ______ 27 _______+0.9 katabatic ____________23 ______________ Nov 22 ______ 29 _______ +1.8 WxUSAF ____________ 18 _______________ Nov 17 ______ 29 _______+0.8 SnowenOutThere ___ 12 _______________ Nov 11 ______ 29 _______-0.4 midAtlanticweather _ 14 ______________ Nov 11 _______ 31 _______ +0.8 **North Balti Zen____23 _______________ Dec 7 _______ 32 _______+0.2 RIC Airport __________28 _______________Nov 23 ______ 33 _______+1.7 GramaxRefugee_____ 23 _______________Nov 18 ______ 33 _______+0.2 Weather53 __________22 ______________ Nov 16 _______34 _______+2.0 peribonca ___________26 _______________ Nov 20 _____ 34 _______ +1.0 Bob Chill ____________ 17 _______________ Nov 11 ______ 34 _______ -1.1 Rhino 16 _____________16 _______________ Nov 8 _______ 36 _______ +1.3 gopper ______________27 _______________ Nov 19 ______ 36 _______ -0.2 RickInBaltimore______25 _______________ Nov 16 ______ 37 _______ +1.2 George BM _________ 18 ________________ Nov 7 ______ 39 ________ -0.2 Millville Wx _________ 17 ________________Nov 4 _______ 41 _______ +0.6 NorthArlington101 __ 20 _______________ Nov 7 _______ 41 ________+0.5 MNTransplant _______13 _______________ Oct 31 _______41 _______ -0.7 wxdude64 __________ 27 _______________ Nov 13 ______ 42 _______ +1.7 frd __________________ 30 _______________ Nov 13 ______ 45 ________+1.1 WxDavis5784 _______ 38 _______________ Nov 20 ______46 ________+2.1 Roger Smith _________ 37 _______________ Nov 15 ______ 50 ________ -0.1 **DanTheMan _______ 51 ________________Dec 19 ______ 72 ________+1.0 **Aldie 22 ___________ 73 _______________ Jan 13 ______ 119 ________+2.1 __________________________________ If correct about no DCA freeze before Nov 28, only five forecasters would not have reached their DCA freeze prediction by then; only these five can change positions in the table after 24th, GAtech would stay first for any DCA freeze Nov 27 or later (loses tiebreaker for Nov 26), Terpeast can finish as high as fourth for Nov 28 to Dec 4 first DCA freeze, North Balti Zen can also finish as high as fourth for Dec 5 or any later date (Terpeast then drops to 5th). DanTheMan can finish as high as 11th for any date Dec 17 or later; Aldie 22 can finish as high as 10th if DCA freeze is delayed to Jan 2024 but needs a freeze after Dec 27 to escape last place ... ... ... ... (I would be there as DanTheMan would be 11th by then). Everyone else is locked into ranks now shown with four of those five possibly changed positions factored in. If you have passed your DCA freeze date, your total error will continue to increase at the same rate as all others including the ** five after they pass their prediction dates.

No, I suck, I am down with the scores of those who have entered fewer contests. But we are both ahead of normal so that's good. I am not a very credible source for advice but the only thing that I notice to be different about your forecasts is that you don't cast a very wide range on either side of zero compared to the field, you're ahead of me because my wide-cast net is going out in faulty directions too many times, but your net is often within 1.0 or 1.5 of normal, and the average departure from normal is about 2.5 to 3.0. I wonder if you just doubled every forecast you posted, if your scores would be really quite high? You are 479 points ahead of normal, now if every forecast you've made has been on correct side of normal and I remove ten of ninety forecasts as ties (any time you say 0.0), then basically you are 480 for 80 or 6 points better than normal implying an improvement of 0.3, so if you doubled and improved by 0.6 and 960 total points gained on normal, you would be closer to the pack. Perhaps try even 2.5x or triple your departures? But it all depends on whether a large number of your forecasts are on correct side of normal as I suspect is true, if you are wrong-sign closer to one third of the time my suggestion would not net any large gain. In my own version of futility, I am too hit or miss with a history of doing well in "extreme forecast" scores but obviously bringing along a few complete misses where I score near zero. Up against the likes of DonS and RodneyS, wxallannj and other well known suspects, we cannot be giving away 100 points on stations every fourth or fifth try, it's a recipe for big losses. I did manage a narrow win over the field this month, and it's probably because I went +1.7 on all nine and guessed close to the actual average departure (which was +2.25) so unless all nine were way off the mean, I was bound to score better than consensus and if you can beat consensus, as the table shows, you can beat most entrants (I have never seen consensus below about 4th or 5th). Differentials in scoring at this stage boil down to 0.1 F per 180 points, so if you are 720 points behind, you're 0.4 F further from perfect accuracy than the other person. Since DonS is about 2700 points below a perfect score, it implies his average error is 1.5 and yours is closer to 2.0, mine around 2.2. ... this is not quite accurate because of occasional low scoring situations where I boosted scores to max-60. So add about 0.2 to all those estimates to get a truer picture of average forecast errors. It does not say how many times you picked the correct anomaly sign and just very subjectively, I think our better scorers do so about 7 or 8 times out of 9, while 5 or 6 is likely the case for me and perhaps one or two others who enter less often. You are probably also in that good range of 7 or 8 out of 9 but you need more depart in your departures. I do not notice any other tendencies in our forecast group, the scores tend to run roughly the same order most years so it is mainly a matter of skill levels and over a whole year if you are just 0.1 F below the skill of our usual leader(s) then you will accumulate a 216 point deficit. Very narrow margins in this contest.

Table of forecasts for November 2023 FORECASTER _____________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ____ DEN _PHX _SEA Scotty Lightning __________ +1.0 _ +0.5 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ____ 0.0 _ +1.0 __0.0 hudsonvalley21 ___________ +0.3 _ +0.6 _+0.2 ___+0.6 _+1.2 _+0.2 ___ +0.9 _+1.8 _+0.8 RJay _______________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____+0.5 _+0.7 _+2.0 ___ +1.5 _+2.1 _ +1.1 ___ Normal ________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____0.0 __ 0.0 __0.0 ____0.0 __ 0.0 __0.0 DonSutherland1 ____________ 0.0 _ -0.3 _-0.6 ___ +0.2 __0.0 _ +0.2 ___+3.0 _+2.5 _+3.6 BKViking ___________________-0.1 _ -0.2 _-0.4 ___ -0.1 _ -0.3 _ -0.2 ___ +0.2 _+1.0 _+0.2 Tom _______________________ -0.3 _ -0.4 _-0.4 ___ -0.2 _-0.2 _ -0.3 ___ +0.5 _+1.2 _+1.1 ___ Consensus _____________-0.4 _ -0.2 _-0.4 ___+0.1 _ +0.2 _ +0.5 ___+0.7 _+1.5 _+0.9 so_whats_happening ______ -0.5 __0.0 __0.0 ___ +0.2 _+0.4 _+0.6 ___ +1.2 _+1.7 _+0.8 wxallannj __________________ -0.5 _-0.7 _-1.0 ____+0.5 _ +1.5 _+1.8 ___ +2.2 _+2.5 _+2.1 Roger Smith _______________ -0.7 _-1.3 _ -1.5 ___ -1.8 _ -1.0 _ +0.3 ___ -0.7 _ +1.0 _ -0.5 Rhino16 ____________________-0.9 _-1.5 _-1.0 ____ +1.5 _ +1.5 _+1.5 ___ +2.0 _+0.5 _+0.7 RodneyS ___________________ -1.1 _ +0.1 _+0.1 ___ -0.3 _ -1.4 _ +0.7 ___ -0.7 _+0.1 _+0.9 wxdude64 _________________ -1.5 _ -1.8 _ -2.1 ____ -1.3 _ -0.6 _ -0.4 ___ +0.3 _+2.2 _+0.7 ------------------------------------ Persistence (Oct 2023)_____+2.3 _+2.6 _+4.4 ___+3.1 _+1.0 _+0.4 ____+1.4 _+4.5 _+0.7

=== === <<<< ---- ANNUAL SCORING for JANUARY - OCTOBER 2023 ---- >>>> === === Best scores for the nine locations are shown with red highlight, best totals for regions in bold. FORECASTER ______________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent ___ c/e___ DEN_ PHX_ SEA __ west __ TOTALS DonSutherland1 ___________ 672 _630 _ 698 __2000 __788 _778 _646 __2212__4212 __705 _616 _776 __2097 ____6309 wxallannj __________________ 625 _612 _ 649 __ 1886 __ 767 _744 _574__ 2085 __3971 __673 _630 _672 __ 1975 ____5946 ___ Consensus _____________621 _600 _ 667 __ 1888__ 771 _670 _607 __2048 __3936 _ 619 _577 _ 774 __ 1970 ____ 5906 hudsonvalley21 ____________643 _622 _ 693 __1958 __776 _677 _591 __ 2044 __4002 __596 _522 _ 775 __ 1893 ____5895 RJay _______________________580 _570 _ 575 __1725 __ 707 _654 _680__ 2041 __3766 __ 579 _639 _ 783 __ 2001 ____5767 RodneyS __________________ 628 _596 _652 __1876 __ 615 _585 _636 __ 1836 __3712 _ 709 _ 540 _ 778 __ 2027 ____5739 wxdude64 _________________638 _639 _580 __1857 __ 579 _726 _540 __1845 __ 3702 __699 _568 _ 742 __ 2009 ____5711 Scotty Lightning ___________571 _576 _614 __ 1761 __ 673 _605 _568 __ 1846 __ 3607 __534 _440 _ 610 __ 1584 ____5191 ... pro-rated scores are added in brackets for most below this point in the table ... ... ... ... Tom's unimproved score is still ahead of Roger Smith and just below Scotty L ... ... ... ... Tom's pro-rated score compares to about 6th place above in the scoring table (just below wxdude64 and BKViking). ... ... ... BKViking's pro-rated score is just below Tom's and gross score just below Roger Smith ... ... ... Stormchaser Chuck's pro-rated score is between 1st and 2nd, below only contest leader Don Sutherland1. ... ... ... so_whats_happening has a pro-rated score between 7th and 8th. ... ... ... rhino16 has a pro-rated score between 9th and 10th. ......... .............. .................... .............................. ...... scores _ pro-rated to 10 Tom (9/10) __________________567 _530 _565 __1662 __552 _558 _540 __1650 __ 3312 __604 _452 _665 __1721 _____5033 (5592) Roger Smith ________________550 _456 _464 __1470 __579 _519 _628 __1726 __ 3196 __ 535 _552 _740 __1827 ____ 5023 BKViking (9/10) _____________546 _506 _583 __1635 __ 663 _550 _545 __1758 __ 3393 __475 _492 _ 588 __1555 ____4948 (5498) ___ Normal __________________512 _528 _500 __1540 __574 _572 _444 __1590 __ 3130 __ 554 _ 392 _640 __1586 ____4712 Rhino16 (6/10) ______________400 _414 _416 __ 1230 __448 _432 _236 __1116 __ 2346 __ 331 _278 _452 __1061 ____ 3407 (5678) so_whats_happening (6/10)_341 _321 _382 __ 1044 __426 _352 _337 __1115 __ 2159 __ 327 _348 _447 __ 1122 ____ 3281 (5468) Stormchaser Chuck (4/10)__251 _272 _268 ___791 __341 _174 _ 224 ___ 739 __ 1530 __284 _300 _334 ___918 ____ 2448 (6080) Terpeast (1/10) _____________ 62 _ 44 _ 34 ____ 140 ___84 _ 86 _ 26 ____ 196 ___ 336 __ 10 __ 76 __ 60 ___ 146 ____ 482 (4438) rainsucks (1/10) ____________ 42 __32 _ 36 ____ 110 ___ 00 _ 66 _ 48 ____ 114 ___ 224 __ 50 __ 98 __ 84 ___ 232 ____ 456 (4204) - - - - - ___ Persistence ____________501 _428 _512 __1441 __618 _605 _564 __1787 ___3228 __ 368 _497 _560 __1425 ____4653 ... (persistence scores a bit lower overall but can score better in a few cases) ... ... (persistence scoring added to all 2023 reports) ... _______________________________________________________ Best Forecasts * shared with one other forecaster for one month (does not apply to Consensus or Normal, if they qualify, so does the high forecaster score whether tied or not) ^ shared with two other forecasters for one month FORECASTER ____________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent_ c/e__ DEN_PHX_SEA__west __ Months DonSutherland1 ___________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ____3*___ 1* ___ 0____4 ___ 1 ___ 2*___ 3^___2*___ 1 ____3 _ Jan,Mar,Aug wxallannj __________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 1 ____3***__1 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 2*___ 1 ___ 2*___ 0 ___ 1*____1* _ May(t),July ___ Consensus ____________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____0 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 1 __ May hudsonvalley21 ____________2*____ 2*____ 1 ___ 1*____ 0^____1 ____1* ___0 ___ 0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____1* _ May(t) RJay _______________________ 1 ____ 3 ____ 1 ____2 ____ 1*___3**___4 ___ 2 ___ 2*___ 0___ 4**^__1___ 1*____0 RodneyS __________________2*____ 1 ____ 2*___ 2 ____ 2*____ 1 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 2 ___3*___2 ___ 2* ___3 ___ 2 _ Jun,Sep wxdude64 _________________1^____ 2 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1*____ 1 ____0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 1 _ Apr Scotty Lightning ___________1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ____1 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1* ___1 ___ 0 ____ 0 Tom (9/10) ________________ 2*^___0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____2*___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0 Roger Smith _______________ 0 ____ 1*___ 1* ___ 1*____2**___ 1 ____1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 _ Oct BKViking (9/10) ___________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1*____ 0 ____0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2*^___2 ___1 ____ 0 ___ Normal _________________0 ____ 3 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 Rhino16 (6/10) _____________ 2^____ 0 ____ 1*___ 2 ____ 0 ____1 ____0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 so_whats_happening (6/10) _0 ____ 0____ 2*___ 0 ____ 0 ____0____0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0 Stormchaser Chuck (4/10)__2 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1 ____ 2 ____ 1* ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____1 _ Feb Terpeast (1/10) ____________ 1*____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ____0 rainsucks (1/10) ___________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ___ 0 ____0 (hudsonvalley21 has a tied top score for ORD (Mar) before 1 pt reduced by penalty). Shown as 0^ ----------------------------------------- EXTREME FORECAST SUMMARY So far, 70 of 90 forecasts qualify, 40 of them for warmest, and 30 for coldest ... Jan 6-2, Feb 5-3, Mar 6-3, Apr 5-3, May 3-2, June 1-8, July 4-2, Aug 4-3, Sep 1-3, Oct 5-1 ... 18 of 64 involve a loss where a second ranked forecast has high score. Two of those are a shared loss. FORECASTER _______ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _Apr _May _ Jun _Jul _Aug _Sep _Oct ___ TOTALS _ (adjusted for ties) RJay _________________ 5-0 _ 2-1 _ 2-0 _ 1*-0_ 0-0 _ 1-0 _4-0 _2*-0 _1-0 _0-0 ___ 18-1 ______16.0 - 1.0 RodneyS _____________1-0 _ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 1-0 __ 1-0 _ 4*-1 _0-1 _ 1*-1 _0-0 _0-0 ___ 10-3 ______ 9.0 - 2 DonSutherland ______ 2-0 _ 1-0 _ 3*-1 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _1-0 ____ 9-1 ______ 8.5 - 1.0 StormchaserChuck __ -- --_ 5-1 _ -- --_ 2-2 _ 2-0 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 0-1 _ --- _____9-4 ______ 8.5 - 4.0 Roger Smith _________ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0 _ 1-1*_ 0-0 _1*-0 _2*-0_0-0 _2**0 __ 8-1 ______ 5.5 - 0.5 wxallannj ____________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-1* 0-1* _ 2*-0_1-0 _ 0-1 _ 0-0 _ 2-0 ___ 6-3 _____ 5.0 - 2.0 hudsonvalley21 ______ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0 _1-0 _ 1*-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _2*-0 __ 5-0 _____ 3.5 - 0.0 Rhino16 _____________ -- --_-- --_-- --_ -- -- _-- - _ ---- _ --- _ 2*^-0_3-0 _ --- ___ 5-0 _____ 3.83-0 ___ Normal ___________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-1 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 3-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-1* _0-1 ___5-3 _____ 4.5 - 2.5 Scotty Lightning _____ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 3-1 _ 0-1* _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 ___ 4-2 _____ 4.0 - 1.5 wxdude64 ___________1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-1 _2^-1 _0-2 _ 0-0 ____ 4-4 ____ 2.83 - 4.0 Tom __________________0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 1*-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _1^-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 ___ 3-0 ______ 1.83 - 0 BKViking _____________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _--- ____ 2-0 ______ 1.5 - 0 rainsucks _____________ -- --_-- --_-- --_1*-0 _ -- - _ ---- _ --- _ --- _ --- __ ---- ___ 1-0 ______ 0.5 - 0 Terpeast _____________ -- --_-- --_-- --_ -- --_ -- - _ 1*-0 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ ---- ___ 1-0 ______ 0.5 - 0 so_whats_happening _0-0 _0-1 _ -- --_-- -- _ -- - _ 0-0 __ --- _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0 __ 1-1 ______ 0.5 - 1 ===========================================

NYC is Central Park. Forecasts later ... (edit, added at 0515z) -0.7 _ -1.3 _ -1.5 ___ -1.8 _ -1.0 _ +0.3 ___ -0.7 _ +1.0 _ -0.5

Please note NYC participants in weather contest, deadline is 06z Wed or 0100h after goblins are done with their activities.

I have not been very active in this regional forum, but I assume reports from Pac NW and western Canada belong here and not in some separate regional thread? Anyway, I will try to post more often in hopes it might encourage others to post from PacNW from time to time. FYI, my location (Rossland BC, a ski and mountain biking, golf resort) is just north of border in central southern BC, about 150 miles north of Spokane WA and 50 miles north of Colville WA. I am close enough to border that we can drive into US within ten minutes of leaving town. Nearest regular reporting site is Castlegar BC (YCG) and we have a climate station at Warfield near Trail, BC. In the 2021 heat dome event we had 45 C (113F) here on June 30, 2021. I believe my all-time record low (from before I moved west) was around -30F in Jan 1950. It is semi-arid around the nearby Columbia valley but our local climate is wet enoug to sustain full forest cover which begins just below my elevation of 3500' asl and extends to near peak elevations in nearby monashee range, not as high as Selkirks or Rockies, peaks are around 7500' to 8000'. Trail in the Columbia valley is at 1500' asl. Anyway, recent weather in region has been clear and very cold, with just a bare inch of snow from last Wed-Thurs (2-3" on nearby higher ground). It was about 18F here last night and is now about 35F in shade, but feels milder in sunshine, temps on a slow rise now as cold sinks into plains states. Will post obs from around PacNW region in situations that are interesting this winter. I make frequent trips south so I am very familiar with regions of Great Basin and southern Utah into nw New mexico, n Arizona high desert. I was in Durango and Silverton CO and up that highway to Grand Junction and Dinosaur n.m. in 2018 and through some other parts of CO and WY in distant past but not as widely travelled there. Will be trying for an eclipse intercept in April 2024, saw 2017 event from Baker City, OR. Will be making a last minute decision on best viewing location, and probably an all-nite drive will be needed Apr 7-8 from w SD or se WY to see this one.

Clear and 25 F here (150 north of Spokane near border), inch of snow cover lasted all day in shaded areas, and good view of full moon near Jupiter this evening. I don't think we're in the same air mass. I see 1919 managed to keep its record at NYC (83) and looked up map for date, fairly similar, westerly flow in warm sector of low around Lake Ontario to n VT track. Today's NYC max of 80 edged past 79F 1984 as warmest since 1919 (and including years before 1919 as well, record broken was only 72). Warm spell performance so far at NYC is t-3, t-7 and 2nd. Also 2nd highest min for Oct 28 (63 vs 64 in 1971).

Predict temperature anomalies for DCA_NYC_BOS__ ORD_ATL_IAH__ DEN_ PHX_ SEA in F deg relative to 1991-2020 averages ("normals") Deadline for on-time entries 06z Wednesday 1st of November 2023. Will open a winter snowfall contest entry with the December contest. Good luck !! You may already have seen my post in September thread giving a detailed history of our contests back to 2013, and summaries of your wins and best scores. I know about half the regulars have seen this by comments and reactions. Enjoy. Also preliminary scoring posted over in October thread, to be adjusted at end of month.

Records during this stretch which includes all of the latest 80F days at NYC except one (80F Nov 15, 1993). Each day's record high (for max and min) are followed by a log of all previous records and top ranks of all past and subsequent warmest days. Oct 26 to Nov 2 is part of a longer interval Oct 25 to Nov 2 (nine days) in which no record high at NYC was set within the last 50 years. This is not the longest such interval, may 31 to June 9 had no record later than 1939, and Oct 9 to 18 had no record later than 1956 (both ten day intervals). Aug 20 to Sep 3 (15 days) had one record tied in 1973 and another solo from 1972. The only other long interval with no post-1975 records was Jan 22 to 28 (latest records from 1967). Otherwise during the year, no seven day periods elapse without a record occurring since 1974 (for NYC). So far today, 77/58 at NYC, as noted tied third highest for date with 1989, and not a record high min. You can find source of all this data in my thread about Toronto and NYC climate records in climate change forum. There is a list of daily records on page 2 followed by logs of annual record highs set at the time (starting with records that existed by 1900). The log tracks all changes to records until an eventual record is set and then tracks ranks of subsequent high values. Another section tracks record lows. (note, I have added 2023 data, t3 26th, t7 27th, 2nd warmest 1984 and 2nd warmest min on 28th) Date ___high max ___high min (1869-2023) Oct 26 ___ 78 1963,64 _ 66 1908 ______ _____ _ 78 ___ Oct 26 ___ eventual record tied 1963,64 .. (1989, 2023 3rd (77F), 1947 4th (76F), 1971,73 t5 (75F), 1924 7th (73F)) Oct 27 ___ 82 1963 ____ 66 1908 _______ _____ _82 ___ Oct 27 ___ eventual record 1963 .. (1947 2nd (78F), 1989 3rd (76F), 1899.1991,2010 t-4th (75F), 1920,29,64, 2023 t-7th (74F)) Oct 28 ___ 83 1919 ____ 64 1971 _______ (63 2023) _____ _83 ____ Oct 28 ___ eventual record 1919 .. (2nd warmest 2023 80F, 3rd 1984 (79F), 4th 1946 (78F), 5th 1947,71,89 (77F)). 1919 replaced 1913 (72F) Oct 29 ___ 78 1971 ____ 63 1946 _______ _____ _78 ___ Oct 29 ___ eventual record 1971 .. (1946 2nd (77F), 1989 3rd (76F), 1984 4th (74F), 2015 5th (73F), 1947,61,2014 t6 (72F)). Oct 30 ___ 82 1946,61 _ 64 1918, 46 ___ _____ _82 ___ Oct 30 ___ eventual record tied 1946, 1961 .. (1950 3rd (79F), 2016 4th (76F), 1918,94 t5th (75F), 1971 7th (74F)). Oct 31 ___ 81 1946 ____ 62 1881, 1961 _ _____ _81 ___ Oct 31 ___ eventual record 1946 .. (1933,45,50,61 t2nd (76F), 1919 6th (74F), 1942,94 t7th (73F)). Nov 01 ___ 84 1950 ____ 65 1956 ______ _____ _84 ___ Nov 1 ___ eventual record 1950 .. (1974 2nd (81F), 1982, 2003 t-3rd (77F), 1927,29,52 t-5th (73F)). [Nov monthly max for 84F 1950] Nov 02 ___ 83 1950 ____ 67 1971 ______ [Nov monthly max (min) for 67F 1971] _____ _83 ___ Nov 2 ___ eventual record 1950 .. (1982 2nd (79F), 1968 3rd (77F), 1929 4th (76F), t5th 1971,2001 (75F)). ________________ As noted, 80F on Nov 15, 1993 only other 80 deg reading later in year; at this point, eight such values exist including one non-record 81F in 1974 on Nov 1st.

Sounds like a fairly good response given lack of lead time, reportedly 8,000 military personnel sent to region just before landfall to co-ordinate expected rescue and recovery work, and numerous emergency locations, I would imagine news spread fairly fast among well connected people but not among a large segment of poorer residents. Looked up metars for Acapulco but last one was before landfall around 0330z. So far a general lack of reports, would expect severe impacts, areas to west along coast would be getting stream overflow from torrential rainfalls no doubt experienced for most of region. Looks like Acapulco city is fairly rolling (flatter areas east) and ravines from nearby mountains would likely become debris torrent filled quickly after landfall. In 1997 I read reports of meter-deep sewage filled mudflows running down streets. If you look on google map view, you can see evidence of normal conditions including piles of garbage and debris on residential streets. All of it now floating around on its way into Pacific Ocean.

Acapulco's max daily rainfall was 16.9" in October 1997 from a weaker 'cane (Pauline); nearby locations recorded 25-35 in rainfalls. Results were destructive flooding and a toll of about 300 dead in Guerrero state. NWS says 12-20 in rains from Otis but I would imagine looking at satellite and terrain, 15-35 could be more realistic. Pauline in 1997 did not bring strong winds, max gusts at Acapulco were TS range. No doubt 2023 will be a worse outcome by far.

I am expecting the winter to be dominated by upper ridges often located near the west coast and troughs often located near the east coast, when both are weak flow will be mild Pacific air masses coast to coast, when both are strong, very mild in west and cold air will flood south from Yukon and NWT, and cover central and eastern regions of southern Canada and the US (Texas and New mexico will often be in a warmer sector associated with the western warmth). Although you can get a few snowstorms out of this pattern, it tends to be dry relative to normal. Lake effect snowfall could be very heavy at times. There will be a tendency for the ridge to flatten and move inland in Feb and into central regions by march, leading to mostly warm weather in early spring, especially central plains to northeast US and lower GL. An analogue may be 1976-77 except that it won't be as cold in Nov and Dec. January could bring one or two severe cold spells into central and eastern regions. A few areas of Utah and Colorado could have above normal snow, California will be prone to a few heavy rainfalls but it won't be as extreme as some El Nino winters. Another possible analogue would be 1980-81. If this has bust potential I would expect it to be towards all mild all the time in a weaker ridge-trough couplet forcing mild air to go coast to coast almost all winter. Given recent tendencies, I suppose the best call is to blend the theoretical with that pessimistic view, and predict mostly mild with brief cold intervals, generally rather dry. I agree KY/TN looks like one area likely to see closer to normal precip. Other than lake effect snow potential, I foresee a rather infrequent snow regime and any location outside of snow belts managing to get close to average will be stringing together a number of moderate snowfalls to do it. Expect a lot of places that regularly receive snow to be in the 50-75 per cent of normal range this winter.

Final scoring for October 2023 Scoring is based on latest posted projected anomalies for end of October. * scores include one point late penalty ^ BOS was scored by max-60 rule but a small spread of scores made it difficult to render a fair result so I decided to add 14 to all scores to keep differentials same as raw scores. Normal was left at raw score of 12. ... PHX was given a standard adjustment but bottom half of scoring stayed at raw scores not adjusted as those were higher than progression (60, 54, etc). Forecaster _____________________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__ c/e __DEN_PHX_SEA__west ___ TOTAL Roger Smith ____________________ 88 _ 82 _ 60^__ 230__ 72 _ 86 _ 74 __ 232 __ 462 __ 94 _ 54^_ 80 __ 228 ____ 690 so_whats_happening __ (-1%) __ 85*_ 75*_ 60^__220 __ 83*_93*_ 83*__259 __ 479 __ 91*_ 26 _ 91*__ 208 ____ 687 hudsonvalley21 _________________90 _ 82 _ 58^__ 230__ 74 _100 _74 __ 248 __ 478 __ 84 _ 36^_ 84 __ 204 ____ 682 DonSutherland1 ________________ 76 _ 72 _ 58^__ 206 __ 96 _ 98 _ 78 __ 272 __ 478 __ 74 _ 54^_ 76 __ 204 ____ 682 ___ Consensus _________________ 76 _ 72 _ 56^__ 204 __ 66 _ 96 _ 76 __ 238 __ 442 __ 90 _ 36^_ 86 __ 212 ____ 654 wxallannj _______________________ 78 _ 74 _ 58^__ 210 __ 34 _ 92 _ 96 __ 222 __ 432 __ 88 _ 60^_ 70 __218 ____ 650 wxdude64 ______________________72 _ 70 _ 54^__ 196 __ 56 _ 86 _ 72 __ 214 __ 410 __ 86 _ 36^_ 88 __ 210 ____ 620 Scotty Lightning ________________74 _ 68 _ 46^__ 188 __ 58 _ 90 _ 78 __ 226 __ 414 __ 82 _ 30 _ 86 __ 198 ____ 612 Tom ____________________________ 60 _ 58 _ 36^__ 154 __ 32 _ 78 _ 80 __ 190 __ 344 __ 96 _ 28 _ 82 __ 206 ____ 550 RJay ____________________________54 _ 54 _ 36^__ 144 __ 38 _ 90 _ 58 __ 186 __ 330 __ 88 _ 42^_ 84 __ 214 ____ 544 RodneyS _______________________ 48 _ 58 _ 46^__ 152 __ 72 _ 64 _ 58 ___ 194 __ 346 __ 92 _ 06^_ 98 __ 196 ____ 542 ___ Normal _____________________ 54 _ 48 _ 12 ___ 114 __ 38 _ 80 _ 92 __ 210 ___ 324 __ 72 _ 10 _ 86 __ 168 ____ 492 ___ Persistence (Sep 2023) _____74 _ 52 _ 62^__ 188 __ 98 _ 98 _ 12 __ 208 __ 396 __ 64 _ 57^_ 74 __ 195 ____ 591 ====================== [][] ===================== Extreme forecasts DCA, NYC, BOS, ORD and PHX are all wins for high forecasts. hudsonvalley has 1.5 (DCA, NYC*), DonS takes one (ORD), wxallannj also one (PHX), Roger Smith 1.0 (NYC*, BOS*), and so_whats_happening 0.5 (BOS*); ... *NYC and BOS were shared wins. IAH (+0.4) goes to coldest forecast, wxallannj (+0.6). Normal takes a loss (0.0). ATL, DEN and SEA all finished close to consensus and did not qualify. (I only introduced "persistence" as a scored entity recently and have not noted its extreme forecast performance, I may do so later, but for OCT persistence would win two, BOS and ORD.) ANNUAL UPDATE to FOLLOW BY NOV 2nd

Scoring tables current and postulated future versions, updated for Tammy (count now 20 6 3) and as it seems likely to become a 'cane, 20 7 3 scores in tables are likely to become current scores soon. (edit 20 7 3 is in fact now current count as of 21st 06z)

After two weeks, first report on October and projections: ______________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA __ (anom 14d) _______ +1.5 _ +1.9 _ +3.6 __ +3.8 _ +0.4 _ -0.9 ___ +1.5 _ +2.9 _ +2.8 __ (anom 22d) _______ +0.4 _ +1.2 _ +3.0 __ +2.8 _ -0.8 _ -1.2 ___ +4.6 _ +5.7 _ +3.2* * SEA data for Oct 19 msg, 3.2 is anom for rest of days, 3.6 is likely closer to actual value as Oct 19 72/60 at nearby location 15__ (p anom 31d) __ +0.5 _ +1.0 _ +2.0 __ +2.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ +2.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.0 23__ (p anom 31d) __+1.5 _ +2.0 _ +3.0 __ +2.5 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ +2.0 _ +3.0 _ +2.0 31__ (final anom) ___ +2.3 _ +2.6 _ +4.4 __ +3.1 _+1.0 _ +0.4 ___ +1.4 _ +4.5 _ +0.7* (Oct 15) _ A warm spell is indicated for next ten days in west, followed by more variable conditions; cool in east at times, but balanced by a few warmer days so anomalies will likely drift down slowly. (Oct 23) _ Turning colder in west, and very warm in east, preliminary scoring will follow. (Oct 31) _ Posting end of October anomalies; scoring will be adjusted later on Nov 1st. * SEA missed 3 days of data, but looking at nearby locations, average (one warm day and two moderately cool) was a bit higher than final overall departure of +0.7 but I won't adjust, resulting error is small (0.2) or perhaps zero if data average is different site to site. Also these three days may be added to CF6 at final report a few days later in Nov. Will check back to see if they revise;

Cloudy for the duration here, could see sun's disk briefly with suggestion of a crescent moon sort of appearance, and light here became very dim for about 20 minutes near 80% peak coverage at about 0935 PDT. Interesting but a non-aware person probably didn't think much was happening, the daylight decreased to about what you might expect around sunset on a cloudy day in December. We tried for pictures but nothing worth posting. Probably a fabulous view of the ring of fire in at least some parts of UT and NV based on satellite imagery.

Scores for all potential outcomes to 21 storm season As actual events unfold, some of these outcomes will become invalid and will be removed. from the table. Just for your information. Table assumes Sean will never gain intensity and will die out with count 19 6 3 to start final countdown. Table also assumes maximum of one major out of storms 20 and 21 as well as options for no further hurricanes. 19 6 3 outcome removed with Tammy the 20th storm and 20 6 3 also removed now Tammy is a hurricane. This also removes 21 6 3 from table. 22 7 3 is now added to table. As Tammy did not become a major, 20 7 4 and 21 7 4 are no longer possible outcomes. 22 8 3 and 22 8 4 replace them. Forum _ Forecaster ______________ s ___ h ___ m ___ 2073 __ 2173 __ 2183 __ 2184 __ 2273 __ 2283 __ 2284 IE ___ Pauldry (IE-4) ______________21 __ 11 __ 8 ____ 74.5 ___ 75.0 ___ 79.0 __ 84.0 __ 74.5 __ 78.5 __ 83.5 AM _ StormchaserChuck1 (42) ___21 __ 11 __ 5 ____ 86.5 ___ 87.0 ___ 91.0 __ 93.0 __ 86.5 __ 90.5 __ 92.5 --- ___ UK Met Office ____________ 20 __ 11 __ 5 ____ 87.0 ___ 86.5 ___ 90.5 __ 92.5 __ 85.5 __ 89.5 __ 91.5 AM _ Roger Smith (19) ___________ 19 __ 12 __ 4 ____ 83.5 ___ 82.5 ___ 87.5 __ 88.5 __ 81.0 __ 86.0 __ 87.0 AM _ LovintheWhiteFluff (34) ____ 19 __ 11 __ 5 ____ 86.5 ___ 85.5 ___ 89.5 __ 91.5 __ 84.0 __ 88.0 __ 90.0 IE __ tae laidir (IE-1) _______________18 ___9 __ 4 ____ 94.5 ___ 93.0 ___ 95.0 __96.0 __ 91.0 __ 93.0 __ 94.0 AM _ SouthCoastMA (10) _________17 __ 10 __ 4 ____ 90.0 ___ 88.0 ___ 91.0 __ 92.0 __ 85.5 __ 88.5 __ 89.5 NW _ SummerShower (NW-3) ____ 17 __ 10 __ 3 ____ 91.0 ___ 89.0 ___ 92.0 __ 91.0 __ 86.5 __ 89.5 __ 88.5 NW _ Kirkcaldy Weather (NW-4)__ 16 __ 11 __ 5 ____ 82.0 ___ 79.5 ___ 83.5 __ 85.5 __ 76.5 __ 80.5 __ 82.5 NW _ Emmett Garland (NW-1) ____ 16 __ 10 __ 3 ____ 89.0 ___ 86.5 ___ 89.5 __ 88.5 __ 83.5 __ 86.5 __ 85.5 IE __ Mr Skinner (IE-3) ____________ 16 ___ 9 __ 5 ____ 89.0 ___ 86.5 ___ 88.5 __ 90.5 __ 83.5 __ 85.5 __ 87.5 AM _ Ineedsnow (44) _____________ 16 ___ 9 __ 4 ____ 91.0 ___ 88.5 ___ 90.5 __ 91.5 __ 85.5 __ 87.5 __ 88.5 AM _ wkd (4) ______________________16 ___ 7 __ 4 ____ 94.0 ___ 91.5 ___ 90.5 __ 91.5 __ 88.5 __ 87.5 __ 88.5 AM _ solidicewx (28) ______________16 ___ 7 __ 4 ____ 94.0 ___ 91.5 ___ 90.5 __ 91.5 __ 88.5 __ 87.5 __ 88.5 AM _ yotaman (31) ________________16 ___ 7 __ 3 ____ 95.0 ___ 92.5 ___91.5 __ 90.5 __ 89.5 __ 88.5 __ 87.5 AM _ hotair (18) ___________________16 ___ 6 __ 3 ____ 94.0 ___ 91.5 ___ 89.5 __ 88.5 __ 88.5 __ 86.5 __ 85.5 AM _ wxdude64 (15) ______________16 ___ 5 __ 2 ____ 91.0 ___ 88.5 ___ 85.5 __ 83.5 __ 85.5 __ 82.5 __ 80.5 AM _ GramaxRefugee (33) ________16 ___ 5 __ 2 ____ 91.0 ___ 88.5 ___ 85.5 __ 83.5 __ 85.5 __ 82.5 __ 80.5 AM _ BrandonC_TX (36) __________ 15 ___ 8 __ 4 ____ 90.5 ___ 87.5 ___ 88.5 __ 89.5 __ 84.0 __ 85.0 __ 86.0 AM _ diggiebot (12) _______________ 15 ___ 7 __ 3 ____ 92.5 ___ 89.5 ___ 88.5 __ 87.5 __ 86.0 __ 85.0 __ 84.0 AM _ Torch Tiger (23) _____________ 15 ___ 7 __ 3 ____ 92.5 ___ 89.5 ___ 88.5 __ 87.5 __ 86.0 __ 85.0 __ 84.0 --- ___ CSU ________________________15 ___ 7 __ 3 ____ 92.5 ___ 89.5 ___ 88.5 __ 87.5 __ 86.0 __ 85.0 __ 84.0 --- ___ TWC _______________________ 15 ___ 7 __ 3 ____ 92.5 ___ 89.5 ___ 88.5 __ 87.5 __ 86.0 __ 85.0 __ 84.0 AM _ Stebo (26) ___________________15 ___ 7 __ 2 ____ 91.5 ___ 88.5 ___ 87.5 __ 85.5 __ 85.0 __ 84.0 __ 82.0 AM _ WxWatcher007 (20) _________15 ___ 6 __ 2 ____ 90.5 ___ 87.5 ___ 85.5 __ 83.5 __ 84.0 __ 82.0 __ 80.0 AM _ Marsman (14) ________________15 ___ 4 __ 2 ____ 85.5 ___ 82.5 ___ 78.5 __ 76.5 __ 79.0 __ 75.0 __ 73.0 --- ___ NOAA median _____________14.5___7.0 _2.5 ___ 90.5 ___ 86.7 ___ 85.7 __ 84.4 __ 83.0 __ 82.0 __ 80.7 AM _ JConsor (13) _________________14 ___ 8 __ 4 ____ 87.5 ___ 84.0 ___ 85.0 __ 86.0 __ 80.0 __ 81.0 __ 82.0 AM _ nvck (45) ____________________ 14 ___ 8 __ 3 ____ 88.5 ___ 85.0 ___ 86.0 __ 85.0 __ 81.0 __ 82.0 __ 81.0 IE __ JPmarn (IE-2) ________________ 14 ___ 7 __ 3 ____ 89.5 ___ 86.0 ___ 85.0 __ 84.0 __ 82.0 __ 81.0 __ 80.0 AM _ NorthArlington101 (1) ________ 14 ___ 6 __ 3 ____ 88.5 ___ 85.0 ___ 83.0 __ 82.0 __ 81.0 __ 79.0 __ 78.0 AM _ IntenseWind002 (5) __________14 ___ 5 __ 3 ____ 86.5 ___ 83.0 ___ 80.0 __ 79.0 __ 79.0 __ 76.0 __ 75.0 _______ Consensus ________________13.8 __6.8 _ 2.8 ___ 88.6 ___ 85.0 ___ 84.0 __ 82.8 __ 80.9 __ 79.9 __ 78.7 AM _ Yoda (40) ___________________ 13 ___ 7 __ 4 ____ 85.0 ___ 81.0 ___ 80.0 __ 81.0 __ 76.5 __ 75.5 __ 76.5 AM _ Superstorm93 (22) __________13 ___ 7 __ 2 ____ 85.0 ___ 81.0 ___ 80.0 __ 78.0 __ 76.5 __ 75.5 __ 73.5 AM _ George BM (41) _____________ 13 ___ 6 __ 3 ____ 85.0 ___ 81.0 ___ 79.0 __ 78.0 __ 76.5 __ 74.5 __ 73.5 AM _ NCForecaster89 (37) _______ 13 ___ 6 __ 2 ____ 84.0 ___ 80.0 ___ 78.0 __ 76.0 __ 75.5 __ 73.5 __ 71.5 AM _ North hills wx (24) ___________13 ___ 5 __ 2 ____ 82.0 ___ 78.0 ___ 75.0 __ 73.0 __ 73.5 __ 70.5 __ 68.5 AM _ Newman (30) _______________ 13 ___ 5 __ 2 ____ 82.0 ___ 78.0 ___ 75.0 __ 73.0 __ 73.5 __ 70.5 __ 68.5 AM _ Alfoman (25) ________________ 13 ___ 5 __ 1 ____ 80.0 ___ 76.0 ___ 73.0 __ 70.0 __ 71.5 __ 68.5 __ 65.5 AM _ Chrisrotary12 (38) ___________13 ___ 5 __ 1 ____ 80.0 ___ 76.0 ___ 73.0 __ 70.0 __ 71.5 __ 68.5 __ 65.5 NW _ Neil N (NW-2) _______________12 ___ 11 __ 1 ____ 69.0 ___ 64.5 ___68.5 __ 65.5 __ 59.5 __ 63.5 __ 60.5 AM _ rclab (43) ____________________12 ___ 8 __ 3 ____ 81.0 ___ 76.5 ___ 77.5 __ 76.5 __ 71.5 __ 72.5 __ 71.5 AM _ Rhino 16 (2) _________________12 ___ 7 __ 3 ____ 82.0 ___ 77.5 ___ 76.5 __ 75.5 __ 72.5 __ 71.5 __ 70.5 AM _ crownweather (11) __________ 12 ___ 6 __ 2 ____ 80.0 ___ 75.5 __ 73.5 __ 71.5 __ 70.5 __ 68.5 __ 66.5 AM _ Cat Lady (7) _________________12 ___ 5 __ 3 ____ 79.0 ___ 74.5 __ 71.5 __ 70.5 __ 69.5 __ 66.5 __ 65.5 AM _ RJay (17) ____________________ 12 ___ 5 __ 2 ____ 78.0 ___ 73.5 __ 70.5 __ 68.5 __ 68.5 __ 65.5 __ 63.5 AM _ cheese007 (35) _____________ 12 ___ 5 __ 2 ____ 78.0 ___ 73.5 __ 70.5 __ 68.5 __ 68.5 __ 65.5 __ 63.5 AM _ Eyewall (27) _________________ 12 ___ 4 __ 2 ____ 75.0 ___ 70.5 __ 66.5 __ 64.5 __ 65.5 __ 61.5 __ 59.5 AM _ LakeNormanStormin (3) _____ 11 ___ 5 __ 2 ____ 73.5 ___ 68.5 __ 65.5 __ 63.5 __63.0 __ 60.0 __ 58.0 AM _ mob1 (8) _____________________ 11 ___ 5 __ 2 ____ 73.5 ___ 68.5 __ 65.5 __ 63.5 __63.0 __ 60.0 __ 58.0 AM _ Malacka 11 (29) _____________ 11 ___ 5 __ 2 ____ 73.5 ___ 68.5 __ 65.5 __ 63.5 __63.0 __ 60.0 __ 58.0 AM _ Matthew70 (32) _____________ 11 ___ 4 __ 2 ____ 70.5 ___ 65.5 __ 61.5 __ 59.5 __60.0 __ 56.0 __ 54.0 AM _ Ed, snow and hurricane fan(16)_10.5 __4.5__2 __ 69.6 __ 64.4 __ 61.4 __ 58.0 __58.7 __ 55.7 __52.3 AM _ cnimbus (6) __________________ 10 ___ 7 __ 2 ___ 71.5 ___ 66.0 __ 65.0 __ 63.0 __60.0 __ 59.0 __ 57.0 AM _ GaWx (21) ____________________ 10 ___ 5 __ 2 ___ 68.5 ___ 63.0 __ 60.0 __ 58.0 __57.0 __ 54.0 __ 52.0 NW _ Summer Blizzard (NW-5) _____ 10 ___ 4 __ 2 ___ 65.5 ___ 60.0 __ 56.0 __ 54.0__ 54.0 __ 50.0 __ 48.0 AM _ The Iceman (39) ______________ 10 ___ 4 __ 1 ___ 63.5 ___ 58.0 __ 54.0 __ 51.0__ 52.0 __ 48.0 __ 45.0 AM _ Olafminesaw (9) _______________ 7 ___ 3 __ 2 ___ 43.5 ___ 36.5 __ 34.5 ___ 29.5__ 29.0 __ 27.0 __ 22.0 Forum _ Forecaster ______________ s ___ h ___ m ___ 2073 __ 2173 __ 2183 __ 2184 __ 2273 __ 2283 __ 2284 ____________________________________ 54 entries (45 AM, 5 NW, 4 IE) and four expert forecasts added Consensus is derived from contest means (excluding expert forecasts)

Post dated Aug 27 is no longer being updated. This post replaces it with up to date scoring for current count, and future potential scores for next expected developments. 21 7 3 is now estimated to be the most plausible end of season count. (edit Oct 19 _ Tammy is now a tropical storm, count 20 6 3). (edit Oct 21 _ Tammy is now a hurricane and count 20 7 3). Scoring for current count (20 7 3) and postulated 21 7 3, 21 8 3 counts forum _FORECASTER ______ storms _hurr _major __ (your current score) (possible future score) _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ err s _ h _ m _ score (100-sum err) _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 20 7 3 _ _ 21 7 3 _ _ 21 8 3 IE ___ Pauldry (IE-4) ______________21 ____11 ____ 8 ____ -0.5 -10 -15 ___ 74.5 ___ 75.0 ___ 79.0 AM _ StormchaserChuck1 (42) ___21 ____11 ____ 5 ____ -0.5 -10 -3 ____ 86.5 ___ 87.0 ___ 91.0 --- ___ UK Met Office ____________ 20 ___ 11 ____ 5 _____ _0 -10 -3 _____ 87.0 ___ 86.5 ___ 90.5 AM _ Roger Smith (19) ___________ 19 ___ 12 ____ 4 _____-0.5 -15 -1 ____ 83.5 ___ 82.5 ___ 87.5 AM _ LovintheWhiteFluff (34) ____ 19 ___ 11 ____ 5 _____-0.5 -10 -3 ____ 86.5 ___ 85.5 ___ 89.5 IE __ tae laidir (IE-1) _______________18 ____ 9 ____ 4 _____-1.5 -3 -1 _____ 94.5 ___ 93.0 ___ 95.0 AM _ SouthCoastMA (10) _________17 ____10 ____ 4 _____ -3 -6 -1 ______ 90.0 ___ 88.0 ___ 91.0 NW _ SummerShower (NW-3) ____ 17 ____10 ____ 3 _____-3 -6 _0 ______ 91.0 ___ 89.0 ___ 92.0 NW _ Kirkcaldy Weather (NW-4)__ 16 ____11 ____ 5 _____ -5 -10 -3 _____ 82.0 ___ 79.5 ___ 83.5 NW _ Emmett Garland (NW-1) ____ 16 ____10 ____ 3 _____ -5 -6 _0 ______ 89.0 ___ 86.5 ___ 89.5 IE __ Mr Skinner (IE-3) ____________ 16 ____ 9 ____ 5 _____ -5 -3 -3 ______ 89.0 ___ 86.5 ___ 88.5 AM _ Ineedsnow (44) _____________ 16 ____ 9 ____ 4 _____ -5 -3 -1 ______ 91.0 ___ 88.5 ___ 90.5 AM _ wkd (4) ______________________ 16 ____ 7 ____ 4 _____ -5 _0 -1 ______ 94.0 ___ 91.5 ___ 90.5 AM _ solidicewx (28) ______________ 16 ____ 7 ____ 4 _____ -5 _0 -1 ______ 94.0 ___ 91.5 ___ 90.5 AM _ yotaman (31) ________________ 16 ____ 7 ____ 3 _____ -5 _0 _0 ______ 95.0 ___ 92.5 ___ 91.5 AM _ hotair (18) ___________________ 16 ____ 6 ____ 3 _____ -5 -1 _0 ______ 94.0 ___ 91.5 ___ 89.5 AM _ wxdude64 (15) ______________ 16 ____ 5 ____ 2 _____ -5 -3 -1 ______ 91.0 ___ 88.5 ___ 85.5 AM _ GramaxRefugee (33) ________ 16 ____ 5 ____ 2 _____ -5 -3 -1 ______ 91.0 ___ 88.5 ___ 85.5 AM _ BrandonC_TX (36) ___________ 15 ____ 8 ____ 4 _____ -7.5 -1 -1 _____ 90.5 ___ 87.5 ___ 88.5 AM _ diggiebot (12) ________________15 ____ 7 ____ 3 _____ -7.5 _0 _0 _____ 92.5 ___ 89.5 ___ 88.5 AM _ Torch Tiger (23) ______________15 ____ 7 ____ 3 _____ -7.5 _0 _0 _____ 92.5 ___ 89.5 ___ 88.5 --- ___ CSU ________________________ 15 ____ 7 ____ 3 _____ -7.5 _0 _0 _____ 92.5 ___ 89.5 ___ 88.5 --- ___ TWC ________________________15 ____ 7 ____ 3 _____ -7.5 _0 _0 _____ 92.5 ___ 89.5 ___ 88.5 AM _ Stebo (26) ___________________ 15 ____ 7 ____ 2 _____ -7.5 _0 -1 _____ 91.5 ___ 88.5 ___ 87.5 AM _ WxWatcher007 (20) __________15 ____ 6 ____ 2 _____ -7.5 -1 -1 _____ 90.5 ___ 87.5 ___ 85.5 AM _ Marsman (14) ________________ 15 ____ 4 ____ 2 _____ -7.5 -6 -1 _____85.5 ___ 82.5 ___ 78.5 --- ___ NOAA median _______________14.5___7.0 ___2.5 ____-9.1 _0 -0.4 ___90.5 ___ 86.7 ___ 85.7 AM _ JConsor (13) __________________14 ____ 8 ____ 4 ____-10.5 -1 -1 _____ 87.5 ___ 84.0 ___ 85.0 AM _ nvck (45) _____________________ 14 ____ 8 ____ 3 ____-10.5 -1 _0 ____ 88.5 ___ 85.0 ___ 86.0 IE __ JPmarn (IE-2) _________________ 14 ____ 7 ____ 3 ____-10.5 _0 _0 ____ 89.5 ___ 86.0 ___ 85.0 AM _ NorthArlington101 (1) _________ 14 ____ 6 ____ 3 ____-10.5 -1 _0 ____ 88.5 ___ 85.0 ___ 83.0 AM _ IntenseWind002 (5) ___________14 ____ 5 ____ 3 ____-10.5 -3 _0 ____ 86.5 ___ 83.0 ___ 80.0 _______ Consensus ________________ 13.8 __ 6.8 __ 2.8 ___-11.2 -0.2 -0.2__ 88.4 ___ 85.0 ___ 83.8 AM _ Yoda (40) _____________________ 13 ____ 7 ____ 4 ____ -14 _0 -1 ____ 85.0 ___ 81.0 ___ 80.0 AM _ Superstorm93 (22) ___________ 13 ____ 7 ____ 2 ____ -14 _0 -1 ____ 85.0 ___ 81.0 ___ 80.0 AM _ George BM (41) _______________ 13 ____ 6 ____ 3 ____ -14 -1 _0 ____ 85.0 ___ 81.0 ___ 79.0 AM _ NCForecaster89 (37) _________ 13 ____ 6 ____ 2 ____ -14 -1 -1 ____ 84.0 ___ 80.0 ___ 78.0 AM _ North hills wx (24) ____________ 13 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____ -14 -3 -1 ____ 82.0 ___ 78.0 ___ 75.0 AM _ Newman (30) _________________ 13 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____ -14 -3 -1 ____ 82.0 ___ 78.0 ___ 75.0 AM _ Alfoman (25) __________________ 13 ____ 5 ____ 1 ____ -14 -3 -3 ____ 80.0 ___ 76.0 ___ 73.0 AM _ Chrisrotary12 (38) _____________13 ____ 5 ____ 1 ____ -14 -3 -3 ____ 80.0 ___ 76.0 ___ 73.0 NW _ Neil N (NW-2) _________________12 ____ 11 ____ 1 ____-18 -10 -3 ___ 69.0 ___ 64.5 ___ 68.5 AM _ rclab (43) ______________________12 ____ 8 ____ 3 ____-18 -1 _0 _____ 81.0 ___ 76.5 ___ 77.5 AM _ Rhino 16 (2) ___________________12 ____ 7 ____ 3 ____-18 _0 _0 _____ 82.0 ___ 77.5 ___ 76.5 AM _ crownweather (11) ____________ 12 ____ 6 ____ 2 ____-18 -1 -1 _____ 80.0 ___ 75.5 ___ 73.5 AM _ Cat Lady (7) ___________________12 ____ 5 ____ 3 ____-18 -3 _0 _____ 79.0 ___ 74.5 ___ 71.5 AM _ RJay (17) ______________________ 12 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____-18 -3 -1 _____ 78.0 ___ 73.5 ___ 70.5 AM _ cheese007 (35) _______________ 12 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____-18 -3 -1 _____ 78.0 ___ 73.5 ___ 70.5 AM _ Eyewall (27) ___________________ 12 ____ 4 ____ 2 ____ -18 -6 -1 _____ 75.0 ___ 70.5 ___ 66.5 AM _ LakeNormanStormin (3) _______11 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____ -22.5 -3 -1 ____73.5 ___ 68.5 ___ 65.5 AM _ mob1 (8) ______________________ 11 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____ -22.5 -3 -1 ____73.5 ___ 68.5 ___ 65.5 AM _ Malacka 11 (29) _______________ 11 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____ -22.5 -3 -1 ____73.5 ___ 68.5 ___ 65.5 AM _ Matthew70 (32) ______________ 11 ____ 4 ____ 2 ____ -22.5 -6 -1 ____ 70.5 ___ 65.5 ___ 61.5 AM _ Ed, snow and hurricane fan(16)_10.5 __4.5___2 ____-25 -4.4 -1 ____ 69.6 ___ 64.4___ 62.0 AM _ cnimbus (6) ___________________ 10 ____ 7 ____ 2 ___ -27.5 _0 -1 ____ 71.5 ___ 66.0 ___ 65.0 AM _ GaWx (21) _____________________ 10 ____ 5 ____ 2 ___-27.5 -3 -1 ____ 68.5 ___ 63.0 ___ 60.0 NW _ Summer Blizzard (NW-5) ______10 ____ 4 ____ 2 ___-27.5 -6 -1 ____ 65.5 ___ 60.0 ___ 56.0 AM _ The Iceman (39) _______________10 ____ 4 ____ 1 ___-27.5 -6 -3 ____ 63.5 ___ 58.0 ___ 54.0 AM _ Olafminesaw (9) _______________ 7 ____ 3 ____ 2 ___-45.5 -10 -1 ___ 43.5 ___ 36.5 ___ 31.5 ____________________________________ 54 entries (45 AM, 5 NW, 4 IE) and four expert forecasts added Consensus is derived from contest means (excluding expert forecasts) <<< SCORES ABOVE WILL BE ADJUSTED EVERY TIME COUNT INCREASES >>>

We will get an 80% bite locally, at about 0930 PDT, will see if I can get any spooky images as it is often foggy in local area until past ten.

I would go to central or southeast Utah for good chances of clear skies given the predicted pattern (dry s.e. flow), also note it would be quite early in day in western OR (about 0920 PDT) and closer to 1100h in mountain daylight time zone in Utah. The visual effect would be interesting over areas of colored rocks too. I realize this is an annular eclipse or a "ring of fire" event. Would recommend trying for April 8, 2024 total eclipse after seeing August 2017 event in Oregon.

Scoring tables for current count (18 6 3) are found back in Aug 27 post. Postulated end of season best estimated count is now 20 7 3, scoring is found a few posts back ... yotaman would win if count verified.

The heavy rains Sep 23 and 28-29 produced seven consecutive new weekly record totals. Sep 23-29 just edged out 1882 (8.86" to 8.82"). After that, faster decreases in previous records than the decreases in 2023 totals allowed each week to Sept 29-Oct 5 to set new records, at the expense of 1913 in the last several cases. Early Sept heat produced a notable but not record value of 73.00 as an average low for Sept 4-10. Current now ending late season heat is not quite at record levels -- the highest averages for Sept 30 to Oct 6 are 82/66 in different years (1922, 1898). The averages this year are closer to 78/62, so falling about four degrees below record pace.

BWI _ Oct 21 IAD _ Oct 21 DCA _ Nov 15 RIC _ Nov 15 BWI departure -0.1

Table of forecasts for October 2023 Forecaster _______________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA hudsonvalley21 ___________________ +1.8 _ +1.7 _ +1.6 ___ +1.8 _ +1.0 _ +1.7 ___ +2.2 _ +1.1 _ -0.1 Roger Smith ______________________ +1.7 _ +1.7 _ +1.7 ___ +1.7 _ +1.7 _ +1.7 ___ +1.7 _ +1.7 _ +1.7 so_whats_happening __ (-1%) ____ +1.6 _ +1.4 _ +1.7 ___ +2.3 _ +1.3 _ +1.2 ___ +1.0 _ +0.8 _ +1.1 wxallannj __________________________+1.2 _ +1.3 _ +1.6 ___ -0.2 _ +0.6 _ +0.6 ___+2.0 _ +2.4 _ +2.2 DonSutherland1 ___________________ +1.1 _ +1.2 _ +1.6 ___+2.9 _ +0.9 _ +1.5 ___ +2.7 _ +1.7 _ +1.9 ___ Consensus _____________________+1.1 _ +1.2 _ +1.5 ___ +1.4 _ +0.8 _ +1.6 ___ +1.9 _ +1.1 _ +1.4 Scotty Lightning ___________________+1.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ___+1.0 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 ___ +0.5 _ +1.0 __ 0.0 wxdude64 _________________________+0.9 _ +1.1 _ +1.4 ___+0.9 _ +0.3 _ +1.8 ___ +0.7 _ +1.1 _ +1.3 Tom _______________________________+0.3 _ +0.5 _ +0.5 __ -0.3 _ -0.1 _ +1.4 ___ +1.2 _ +0.9 _ +1.6 RJay _______________________________ 0.0 _ +0.3 _ +0.5 ___ 0.0 _ +0.5 _+2.5 ___ +2.0 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 ___ Normal _______________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 RodneyS __________________________ -0.3 _ +0.5 _ +1.0 ___ +1.7 _ -0.8 _+2.5 ___ +1.0 _ -0.6 _ +0.6 ___ Persistence (Sep 2023) ________+1.0 _ +0.2 _ +1.8 __ +3.2 _ +0.9 _ +4.8 ___+3.2 _ +2.0 _ -0.6 _________________ highest forecasts in red, coldest in blue. Normal was coldest for NYC, BOS, IAH and DEN.