Roger Smith

Scoring adjusted for RIC 101, PrinceFrederickWx stays in the lead, Gramax Refugee now second. Our consensus is tied for lead, but 75% of summers have their max in July or August, so this early burst of heat could quite easily be broken later.

Predict temp anomalies for nine locations (F deg relative to 1991-2020 averages) ... DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Deadline is 06z July 1st

First bit of contest news, late entries will not be incorporated as we had a long interval for entries and a deadline up against this heat wave. Second, here are updated scores after a very hot Saturday. EDIT _ June 26 RIC 101 Actual to date __________________________ 100_100_101_101 Departures ________________________DCA IAD BWI RIC ____ TOTALS (rank) __ departures not reversible PrinceFrederickWx (5) _____________0 _ 0 _ 0 _ 1 __________ 1 (1) _____ 1 Gramax Refugee (15) ______________ 1 _ 0 _ 0 _ 0 __________ 1 (2) _____ 1 ___ Consensus (median) ___________ 0 _ 1 _ 0 _ 0 __________ 1 (t1) ____ 0 Roger Ramjet (18) _________________ 1 _ 1 _ 0 _ 0 ___________ 2 (3) _____0 Palocene (21) ______________________0 _ 1 _ 1 _ 0 ___________ 2 (4) _____ 2 Weather53 (22) ___________________ 0 _ 1 _ 0 _ 1 ___________ 2 (5) _____ 1 WxUSAF (9) _______________________ 0 _ 1 _ 1 _ 1 ___________ 3 (6) _____ 3 wxdude64 (6) _____________________ 1 _ 2 _ 0 _ 0 __________ 3 (7) _____ 0 Terpeast (10) ______________________ 0 _ 2 _ 1 _ 0 __________ 3 (8) _____ 0 LittleVillageWx (17) ________________ 1 _ 1 _ 1 _ 1 ___________ 4 (9) _____ 2 WxDavis5784 (11) _________________ 1 _ 1 _ 2 _ 0 ___________4 (10)_____ 1 katabatic (19) ______________________0 _ 2 _ 1 _ 1 ___________4 (11)_____ 0 yoda (28) __________________________2 _ 1 _ 0 _ 1 ___________4 (12)_____ 0 biodhokie (8) ______________________ 0 _ 0 _ 2 _ 2 __________4 (13)_____ 4 North Balti Zen (4) ________________ 0 _ 3 _ 1 _ 0 ___________4 (14)_____ 0 nw baltimore wx (3) _______________ 1 _ 1 _ 1 _ 2 ___________ 5 (15) _____ 5 MN Transplant (25) ________________1 _ 1 _ 1 _ 2 ___________ 5 (16) _____ 4 midAtlanticweather (24) ___________ 1 _ 1 _ 2 _ 1 ___________5 (17) _____ 3 RickinBaltimore (2) ________________ 1 _ 2 _ 0 _ 2 ___________5 (18) _____ 0 TSG (7) ____________________________2 _ 1 _ 2 _ 0 ___________5 (19) _____ 4 nmyers1204 (29) __________________ 3 _ 1 _ 0 _ 1 ___________5 (20) _____ 4 GATECH (26) ______________________ 1 _ 1 _ 2 _ 2 ___________6 (21) _____ 6 Jenkins Jinkies (14) _______________ 2 _ 1 _ 2 _ 1 ___________6 (22) _____ 6 LongRanger (27) __________________ 2 _ 0 _ 1 _ 3 ___________6 (23) _____ 5 Eskimo Joe (16) ___________________ 2 _ 1 _ 2 _ 2 ___________7 (24) _____ 7 tplbge (23) ________________________ 1 _ 2 _ 2 _ 3 __________ 8 (25) _____ 8 Rhino16 (13) _______________________ 2 _ 4 _ 0 _ 3 __________9 (26) _____ 0 Jebman (20) _______________________ 5 _ 2 _ 2 _ 0 __________9 (27) _____ 0 Roger Smith (1) ____________________ 3 _ 5 _ 5 _ 6 _________ 19 (28) _____ 0 George BM (12) ____________________ 8 _10 _ 9 _10 ________ 37 (29) _____ 0 ___ mean (avg) ____________________ 0.1 _ 1.1_ 0.1 _2.1 ______ 3.4 _______________________________ (forecasts) FORECASTER (order of entry) ____ DCA _ IAD _ BWI _ RIC ____ average (rank) Average of four forecasts shows warm bias and is ranked, data illustrated by graphic format. George BM (12) ___________________ 108 _ 110 _ 110 _ 111 ________________ 109.75 (1) Jebman (20) ______________________ 105 _ 102 _ 103 _ 101 _________ 102.75 (t3) Roger Smith (1) ___________________ 103 _ 105 _ 106 _ 107 ___________ 105.25 (2) Rhino16 (13) _______________________102 _ 104 _ 101 _ 104 _________ 102.75 (t3) yoda (28) __________________________102 _ 101 _ 101 _ 102 _______ 101.5 (t6) RickinBaltimore (2) ________________ 101 _ 102 _ 101 _ 103 _______ 101.75 (5) wxdude64 (6) _____________________ 101 _ 102 _ 101 _ 101 _______ 101.25 (t9) Roger Ramjet (18) __________________101 _ 101 _ 101 _ 101 _______ 101.0 (t11) North Balti Zen (4) _________________100 _ 103 _ 102 _ 101 _______ 101.5 (t6) katabatic (19) ______________________100 _ 102 _ 102 _ 102 _______ 101.5 (t6) Terpeast (10) ______________________ 100 _ 102 _ 102 _ 101 _______ 101.25 (t9) Weather53 (22) ___________________ 100 _ 101 _ 101 _ 100 ______ 100.5 (t13) PrinceFrederickWx (5) _____________100 _ 100 _ 101 _ 100 ______ 100.25 (t15) biodhokie (8) ______________________ 100 _ 100 __ 99 __99 ______ 99.50 (t23) Palocene (21) ______________________ 100 __ 99 _ 100 _ 101 ______ 100.0 (18) ___ Consensus (median) ___________ 100 _ 101 _ 101 _ 101 ______ 100.75 (12/13) WxUSAF (9) ________________________100 __ 99 _ 100 _ 100 ______ 99.75 (t19) WxDavis5784 (11) __________________ 99 _ 101 _ 103 _ 101 ______ 101.0 (t11) LittleVillageWx (17) _________________ 99 _ 101 _ 102 _ 100 ______ 100.5 (t13) MN Transplant (25) _________________ 99 _ 101 _ 100 __99 _______ 99.75 (t19) midAtlanticweather (24) ____________ 99 _ 101 __ 99 _ 102 _____ 100.25 (t15) Gramax Refugee (15) _______________ 99 _ 100 _ 101 _ 101 _____ 100.25 (t15) nw baltimore wx (3) ________________ 99 __ 99 _ 100 __ 99 ______ 99.25 (25) GATECH (26) _______________________ 99 __ 99 __ 99 __ 99 ______ 99.0 (t26) tplbge (23) _________________________ 99 __ 98 __ 99 __ 98 _____ 98.5 (29) TSG (7) _____________________________ 98 _ 101 __ 99 _ 101 ______ 99.75 (t19) LongRanger (27) ____________________98 _ 100 _ 102 __ 98 ______ 99.50 (t23) Jenkins Jinkies (14) _________________98 __ 99 __ 99 _ 100 ______ 99.0 (t26) Eskimo Joe (16) _____________________98 __ 99 __ 99 __ 99 _____ 98.75 (28) nmyers1204 (29) ___________________ 97 __ 99 _ 101 _ 102 ______ 99.75 (t19) ___ mean (avg) ____________________ 100.1_ 101.1_ 101.1 _101.1 ___100.85 _______________________________

A few days ago I posted a list of all 3-day June intervals (or longer) with departures above 90F. There are 52 involving all days at or above 90, and an additional 28 (now) with the required departure despite not including at least three consecutive days. (edit _ 53 and 27 now as 2024 joins group a). At present, NYC would have passed 16 of 27 in group (b) below, and in terms of departure, just three of the 52 in group (a). But it could move further up list and qualify for group (a) if Saturday exceeds 89F. I will show these lists again once this current contender is done (next day of 88F or lower will end this one by rules being used, or passage into July will end it; several spells were considerably more impressive if you added in consecutive days in early July or in two cases, late may. It can also be noted that a few April and may hot spells would qualify and this one has yet to pass April 1976 or 2002 for total consecutive departure above 90F. If you added 2F to all NYC highs after 2011 and 1F for 1995 to 2010, I think the current spell would then rank 35th (30th but five others in recent years would also increase). If NYC hits 95F on Saturday and 93F on Sunday (or vice versa) it would leave group (b), drop the 89F needed to qualify there, and would sit 24th in group (a). Another 92F reading by monday would move current spell to 12th on list (a). A reading of 89 or lower, followed by several hot days, would set up a two-interval listing like June 1966. This spell can only go further than 5-6 days by continuing to hit 90F. All of the cases of nearly extended heat waves in two parts below had interruptions of at least one day 88F or lower, or two days 87F or lower. Given the 2F additional concept, an extended spell now of 88F or higher would adjust to that long of a group (a) interval. If you've had a longer and more impressive heat wave, you would need to compare it to past data at your location, even in the unshielded heat of past, NYC could have been running 1-3 deg lower than so e places inland in NJ. (edit, based on provisional data, June 20-23 2024 in group a now at rank 29, and is out of group b) (group a _ all days 90+) _01 ___ 1925 ___ 3-7 ____ 94, 99, 99, 98, 96 (+36) _02 ___ 1943 __ 25-28 __ 99, 96, 98, 92 (+25) _03 ___ 1984 ___ 7-12 ___ 92, 94, 96, 95, 94 (+21) _04 ___ 1963 __ 24-28 __ 90, 95, 96, 95, 94 (+20) _05 ___ 1966 __ 27-30^__ 101, 93, 92, 94 (followed a non-qualifying interval in 2nd list below) _06 ___ 1957 __ 15-19 __ 93, 95, 96, 93, 92 (+19) _07 ___ 2008 __ 7-10 ___ 94, 93, 96, 96 (+19) _08 ___ 1952 __ 25-27 __ 99, 100, 90 (+19) _09 ___ 1988 ___ 12-16 __ 90, 93, 96, 96, 92 (+17) _10 ___ 1895 ___ 1-3 ____ 96, 96, 95 (five days incl 05-30 90, 05-31 96) _11 ___ 1901 ___ 26-30 __ 91, 91, 93, 95, 95 (3 added days July 1-3, 100, 100, 94) _12 ___ 1956 ___ 13-16 __ 91, 99, 94, 91 (+15) _13 ___ 2021 ___ 27-30 __90, 92, 95, 98 _14 ___ 1899 ___ 5-8 ____ 94, 95, 94, 92 _15 ___ 1923 ___ 19-21 ___ 91, 98. 96 (22nd 82, 23rd 86, followed by int 21 below) _16 ___ 1953 ___ 20-22 __ 97, 97, 91 _17 ___ 1891 ___ 15-17 ___ 96, 97, 92 _18 ___ 1888 ___ 22-24 ___ 93, 96, 96 _19 ___ 1880 ___ 24-28 ___ 93, 94, 91, 92, 94 (+14) _20 ___ 1991 ___ 27-30 ___ 91, 96, 97, 90 _21 ___ 1923 ___ 24-26 ___ 93, 97, 94 _22 ___ 1945 ___ 14-18 ___ 92, 93, 93, 93, 92 (+13) _23 ___ 1941 ___ 19-22 ___ 91, 92, 94, 96 _24 ___ 1933 ___ 7-9 _____ 90, 95, 97 (+12) _25 ___ 1929 ___ 17-20 ___ 92, 95, 94, 90 (+11) _26 ___ 1973 ___ 9-12 ____ 92, 91, 95, 93 _27 ___ 1949 ___ 24-27 ___ 90, 91, 96, 93 __ follows a +4 non-listed int in 2nd group below _28 ___ 1950 ___ 24-27 ___ 90, 93, 95, 92 (+10) _29 ___ 2024 __ 20-23 __ 91, 94, 93, 92 (+8) _30 ___ 1994 ___ 17-19 ___ 90, 92, 98 _31 ___ 1919 ___ 2-4 _____ 93, 92, 95 _32 ___ 2003 __ 24-27 ___ 93, 92, 93, 91 (+9) _33 ___ 1921 ___ 21-24 ___ 92, 95, 90, 91 _34 ___ 1962 ___ 16-19 ___ 91, 91, 93, 93 (+8) _35 ___ 1995 ___ 18-20 ___ 90, 93, 95 _36 ___ 2012 ___ 20-22 __ 94, 94, 90 _37 ___ 1941 ___ 27-29 ___ 94, 91, 93 _38 ___ 1943 ___ 19-22 ___92, 91, 90, 94 (23rd 87, 24th 87, followed by int 2) _39 ___ 1983 ___ 12-15 ___91, 93, 91, 92 (+7) _40 ___ 1930 ___ 3-5 ____ 92, 94, 91 _41 ___ 1959 ___ 8-10 ___ 91, 94, 92 _42 ___ 2017 ___ 11-13 ___90, 93, 94 _43 ___ 1909 ___ 24-26 __91, 93, 93 _44 ___ 1944 ___ 16-18 ___92, 91, 93 (+6) _45 ___ 1966 ___ 4-6 ____90, 95, 90 (+5) _46 ___ 1906 ___ 28-30___90, 91, 94 _47 ___ 2010 ___ 27-29 __ 91, 93, 91 _48 ___ 1876 ___ 25-28 __ 91, 91, 92, 90 (+4) _49 ___ 1872 ___ 28-30 ___90, 91, 93 ____ (five added days July 1-5 92 96 94 94 93) _50 ___ 1965 ___ 21-24 ___ 90, 91, 93 _51 ___ 1999 ___ 26-29 ___91, 90, 91, 90 (+2) _52 ___ 1922 ___ 7- 9 ____ 90, 91, 90 (+1) _53 ___ 1976 ___ 9-11 ____ 91, 90, 90 ^ 1966 interval followed by 87 July 1 and 100, 103, 98 July 2-4) (05-29 to June 1st 1987 96, 97, 94, 93 would rank 6 (7 if 1895 extended, 10 if July add-ons also counted) above, but does not qualify for lists, 78 and 66 June 2-3) ________________________________ Following intervals of 3+ days would be in list if only criterion was total departure from 90. ... includes all 3-day intervals not in list above w/ average > 90.0 ... no intervals included if one day outside June is required (e.g. June 29-July 1 1931 was 87, 95, 92, and June 29 to July 3 1934 was equivalent to +21, June-July 1901 spell would rank first if July days included). I added ranks if following spells are integrated into above list in regard to total departures above 90. Ranks are given as additional not inclusive, for instance, first in list ranks 24a, as it equals spell 24 above (+12). An integrated ranking would add to list above for every case below. For instance, spell 25 above would be 26 and 24a below would be 25 (if we always placed equal spells below in lower rank). Group (b) _ Total departure above 90F for 3+ days but no three consecutive above 89F (90+) Rank __ dep __ interval 24a ___ +12 _ June 20 (21) -22 (23) __ 87, 97, 98, 87 31a ____ +9 ___ June 27-30, 1964 __ 94, 86, 90, 99 (followed by 99, 91, 93 July 1-3) 39a ____ +7 ___ June 12-14, 1892 __ 88, 95, 94 43a ____ +6 ___ June 7 (8)-9 (10) 2011 __ 87, 94, 95, 87 43b ____ +6 ___ June 28-30, 1969 __ 96, 89, 91 43c ____ +6 ___ June 23-25 1966 __ 94, 94, 88 (82 June 26 then int 5 in list above) 44a ____ +5 ___ June 19-21, 1893 __ 91, 95, 89 48a ____ +4 ___ June 28-30, 1934 __ 82, 101, 91 (July 1-3 92, 93, 94) 48b ____ +4 ___ June 20 (21)- 22(23) 1949 __ 88, 95, 91, 88 (followed by int 27 in list above) 48c ____ +4 ___ June 26-28, 1953 __ 94, 92, 88 48d ____ +4 ___ June 7-9, 1999 ____ 94, 93, 87 48e ____ +4 ___ June 28-30, 2012 __ 88, 93, 93 (94 on July 1) 49a ____ +3 ___ June 19-21, 1931 __ 90, 97, 86 49b ____ +3 ___ June 18-20, 1987 __ 88, 89, 96 49c ____ +3 ___ June 17-19, 1991 __ 87, 91, 95 49d ____ +3 ___ June 27-29, 1944 __ 91, 89, 93 50a ____ +2 ___ June 27 (28) -29 (30) 1874 __ 83, 91, 98, 83 50b ____ +2 ___ June 12-14, 1961 __ 88, 96, 88 50c ____ +2 ___ June 13-15, 1994 __ 84, 92, 96 (82 June 16th, then int 29 in list above) 50d ____ +2 ___ June 15-17, 1991 __ 92, 94, 86 50e ____ +2 ___ June 4-6, 1923 ___ 89, 92, 91 51a ____ +1 ___ June 24-27, 1946 __ 90, 89, 91, 91 51b ____ +1 ___ June 24-26, 1870 __ 91, 94, 86 51c ____ +1 ___ June 3-5, 1940 ___ 88, 94, 89 51d ____ +1 ___ June 27-29, 1900 __ 92, 91, 88 51e ____ +1 ___ June 9-11, 2000 ___ 87, 92, 92 51f ____ +1 ___ June 23-25, 2013 __ 88, 92, 91 ______________ (note, a few above are 3-day intervals with two equal possible start and end dates, for instance, June 20 (21)- 22(23) 1949 __ 88, 95, 91, 88 (would be equal to any 88, 95, 91 or 95, 91, 88 spell, just two different candidates for list) (also note June 19-21 2024 will leave group b for group a if June 22 is 90+)_edit now in group a

Probably an error but t'storms can release heat at odd times, Sacrus had a historical note a few days ago about a decaying storm near Pierre SD that created a rise to 104 F in middle of night. I have never seen it happen in eastern regions however. Or, a brush fire could be raging near the sensor, creating very hot gusts. If so, I don't know if it would count as a "real" climate stat or not. There again, I don't know of any actual occurrences.

If you're not a golf fan, be aware Golf Channel could become Weather Live later on, golf tournament in progress near Hartford CT. No sirens yet.

Final Scoring for June 2024 Scores are based on end of June anomalies. FORECASTER ____________ DCA_NYC_BOS_ east _ORD_ATL_IAH_cent_ c/e _DEN_PHX_SEA_west___ TOTAL Rhino16 ____________________72 _ 68 _ 78 __ 218 __ 94 _ 94 _ 90 __278 _496__94 _ 99 _ 50__ 243 ____739 Scotty Lightning ___________92 _ 88 _ 82 __262 __ 64 _ 70 _ 92 __226 _488__24 _ 24 _ 60 __108 ____ 596 rainsucks __________________72 _ 74 _ 76 __ 222 __ 82 _ 60 _ 92 __234 _456__ 42 _ 30 _ 54 __126 ____ 582 RJay __________ (-2%) ______71 _ 77 _ 80 __ 228 __ 73 _ 69 _ 90 __232 _460__ 34 _ 34 _ 40 __108 ____ 568 BKViking ___________________76 _ 84 _ 76 __ 236 __ 50 _ 70 _ 70 __190 _ 426 __44 _ 30 _ 60 __134 ____ 560 Roger Smith _______________ 62 _ 70 _ 60 __ 192 __ 74 _ 76 _ 52 __202 _394__ 64 _ 44 _ 56 __164 ____ 558 Tom ________________________56 _ 64 _ 68 __ 188 __ 52 _ 56 _ 96 __204 _392__ 28 _ 28 _ 68 __124 ____ 516 ___ Consensus ____________52 _ 64 _ 64 __ 180 __ 54 _ 58 _ 92 __204 _382__30 _ 30 _ 58 __118 ____ 502 hudsonvalley21 ____________ 48 _ 62 _ 64 __ 174 __ 40 _ 62 _ 88 __190 _364__ 36 _ 22 _ 50 __ 108 ____ 472 so_whats_happening ______ 44 _ 52 _ 60 __ 156 __ 44 _ 50 _ 92 __186 _342__ 24 _ 24 _ 60 __ 108 ____ 450 wxallannj ___________________42 _ 52 _ 62 __ 156 __ 54 _ 40 _ 86__ 180 _336 __ 24 _ 36 _ 50 __ 110 ____ 446 DonSutherland1 ____________42 _ 58 _ 62 __ 162 __ 54 _ 36 _ 88 __178 _340 __ 18 _ 14 _ 70 __ 102 ____ 442 StormchaserChuck1 _______ 32 _ 42 _ 36 __ 110 __ 24 _ 46 _ 88 __158 _268 __ 26 _ 30 _ 66 __ 122 ____ 390 RodneyS ___________________ 32 _ 60 _ 48 __ 140 __ 00 _ 20 _ 86 __106 _246__ 26 _ 06 _ 68 __ 100 ____ 346 wxdude64 _________________ 16 _ 32 _ 56 __ 104 __ 28 _ 22 _ 78 __128 _ 232__ 36 _ 28 _ 38 __ 102 ____ 334 ___ Normal ________________32 _ 38 _ 42 __ 112 __ 34 _ 30 _ 68 __132 _244__ 00 _ 00 _ 80 __ 080 ____324 ________________________ Persistence _ (05-24) ___________ 74 _ 74 _ 68 ____ 216 ___ 82 _ 92 _ 94 ___ 268 __ 484 ___ 00 _ 30 _ 82 ___ 112 ______ 596 (t2) warmest and coldest forecasts color coded, Normal is colder than all forecasts for IAH, DEN, PHX and SEA --------------------------- EXTREmE FORECAST REPORT DCA, NYC, BOS are wins for Scotty L ORD, ATL, DEN, PHX are wins for Rhino16 IAH is not an extreme forecast. SEA is a win for DonS (lowest forecast +0.5) and also for Normal. ====================== Annual update will follow near end of June ...

These last two forecasts will be added in same way as earlier late entry (see post on June 8). Ineligible to win contest but will be ranked. If let's say one ends up between 7th and 8th, it will be rank 7.5 ... but will cap possible ranks at 2.5. Any entries after today's post will not be noted in table, sorry ... first named storm Alberto is up and running.

Snow fell as low as 4,000' southwest of Calgary earlier today. It has been very cold and unsettled up this way since Saturday, and I was over in Alberta on weekend, hail and thunder in locations now snow covered, and readings in 40s F all day. Not a lot better back at base, 53F and passing rain/hail showers. Forest fire potential is very low which is the one good thing about this recent spell.

So far 91F EWR, 86 NYC, LGA, and 80F JFK, ISP are reported maxima. also... 91F PHL, 94F DCA CLE ORD, 92F IAD, BWI Looks like a "bog standard" June event so far, very similar to a spell in 1929 at same point. I accept NYC is reading a bit lower nowadays but an adjustment to 88 or possibly 89 is probably "comparable" to past data. I suppose it's better to see trees growing in CP, compared to alternative of steady state urban warming environment. After all, a lot of effort is going into cooling climate, so every little bit is good (except for our academic interests). Based on extensive studies of Toronto climate, I see a similar but less dramatic effect on downtown Toronto temps in a parkland setting similar to CP, it may be a fairly widespread situation in large cities in parks created a century ago and resulting planned tree canopy spreadouts. So it raises question, is it really "wrong" to take NYC as measurement, or is it just reflecting a new (and improved) environment in midtown locations? Probably a bit of (a) and (b). But if we all agree, NYC +1 or +2 is directly comparable during April to October warm spells, and closer to zero adjustment required outside of warm spells, we all understand comparisons to past events.

June 3-day (or greater) spells of 90+ at NYC Listed in order of total departure above 90 deg Ties are broken by duration, and if equal in duration, by max value, and if equal after, by earliest to latest. RANK _ YEAR __ days ____ Daily values _01 ___ 1925 ___ 3-7 ____ 94, 99, 99, 98, 96 (+36) _02 ___ 1943 __ 25-28 __ 99, 96, 98, 92 (+25) _03 ___ 1984 ___ 7-12 ___ 92, 94, 96, 95, 94 (+21) _04 ___ 1963 __ 24-28 __ 90, 95, 96, 95, 94 (+20) _05 ___ 1966 __ 27-30^__ 101, 93, 92, 94 (followed a non-qualifying interval in 2nd list below) _06 ___ 1957 __ 15-19 __ 93, 95, 96, 93, 92 (+19) _07 ___ 2008 __ 7-10 ___ 94, 93, 96, 96 (+19) _08 ___ 1952 __ 25-27 __ 99, 100, 90 (+19) _09 ___ 1988 ___ 12-16 __ 90, 93, 96, 96, 92 (+17) _10 ___ 1895 ___ 1-3 ____ 96, 96, 95 (five days incl 05-30 90, 05-31 96) _11 ___ 1901 ___ 26-30 __ 91, 91, 93, 95, 95 (3 added days July 1-3, 100, 100, 94) _12 ___ 1956 ___ 13-16 __ 91, 99, 94, 91 (+15) _13 ___ 2021 ___ 27-30 __90, 92, 95, 98 _14 ___ 1899 ___ 5-8 ____ 94, 95, 94, 92 _15 ___ 1923 ___ 19-21 ___ 91, 98. 96 (22nd 82, 23rd 86, followed by int 21 below) _16 ___ 1953 ___ 20-22 __ 97, 97, 91 _17 ___ 1891 ___ 15-17 ___ 96, 97, 92 _18 ___ 1888 ___ 22-24 ___ 93, 96, 96 _19 ___ 1880 ___ 24-28 ___ 93, 94, 91, 92, 94 (+14) _20 ___ 1991 ___ 27-30 ___ 91, 96, 97, 90 _21 ___ 1923 ___ 24-26 ___ 93, 97, 94 _22 ___ 1945 ___ 14-16 ___ 92, 93, 93, 93, 92 (+13) _23 ___ 1941 ___ 19-22 ___ 91, 92, 94, 96 _24 ___ 1933 ___ 7-9 _____ 90, 95, 97 (+12) _25 ___ 1929 ___ 17-20 ___ 92, 95, 94, 90 (+11) _26 ___ 1973 ___ 9-12 ____ 92, 91, 95, 93 _27 ___ 1949 ___ 24-27 ___ 90, 91, 96, 93 __ follows a +4 non-listed int in 2nd group below _28 ___ 1950 ___ 24-27 ___ 90, 93, 95, 92 (+10) _29 ___ 1994 ___ 17-19 ___ 90, 92, 98 _30 ___ 1919 ___ 2-4 _____ 93, 92, 95 _31 ___ 2003 __ 24-27 ___ 93, 92, 93, 91 (+9) _32 ___ 1921 ___ 21-24 ___ 92, 95, 90, 91 _33 ___ 1962 ___ 16-19 ___ 91, 91, 93, 93 (+8) _34 ___ 1995 ___ 18-20 ___ 90, 93, 95 _35 ___ 1941 ___ 27-29 ___ 94, 91, 93 _36 ___ 2012 ___ 20-22 __ 94, 94, 90 _37 ___ 1943 ___ 19-22 ___92, 91, 90, 94 (23rd 87, 24th 87, followed by int 2) _38 ___ 1983 ___ 12-15 ___91, 93, 91, 92 (+7) _39 ___ 1930 ___ 3-5 ____ 92, 94, 91 _40 ___ 1959 ___ 8-10 ___ 91, 94, 92 _41 ___ 2017 ___ 11-13 ___90, 93, 94 _42 ___ 1909 ___ 24-26 __91, 93, 93 _43 ___ 1944 ___ 16-18 ___92, 91, 93 (+6) _44 ___ 1966 ___ 4-6 ____90, 95, 90 (+5) _45 ___ 1906 ___ 28-30___90, 91, 94 _46 ___ 2010 ___ 27-29 __ 91, 93, 91 _47 ___ 1876 ___ 25-28 __ 91, 91, 92, 90 (+4) _48 ___ 1872 ___ 28-30 ___90, 91, 93 ____ (five added days July 1-5 92 96 94 94 93) _49 ___ 1965 ___ 21-24 ___ 90, 91, 93 _50 ___ 1999 ___ 26-29 ___91, 90, 91, 90 (+2) _51 ___ 1922 ___ 7- 9 ____ 90, 91, 90 (+1) _52 ___ 1976 ___ 9-11 ____ 91, 90, 90 ^ 1966 interval followed by 87 July 1 and 100, 103, 98 July 2-4) (05-29 to June 1st 1987 96, 97, 94, 93 would rank 6 (7 if 1895 extended, 10 if July add-ons also counted) above, but does not qualify for lists, 78 and 66 June 2-3) ________________________________ Following intervals of 3+ days would be in list if only criterion was total departure from 90. ... includes all 3-day intervals not in list above w/ average > 90.0 ... no intervals included if one day outside June is required (e.g. June 29-July 1 1931 was 87, 95, 92, and June 29 to July 3 1934 was equivalent to +21, June-July 1901 spell would rank first if July days included). I added ranks if following spells are integrated into above list in regard to total departures above 90. Ranks are given as additional not inclusive, for instance, first in list ranks 24a, as it equals spell 24 above (+12). An integrated ranking would add to list above for every case below. For instance, spell 25 above would be 26 and 24a below would be 25 (if we always placed equal spells below in lower rank). Rank __ dep __ interval 24a ___ +12 _ June 20 (21) -22 (23) __ 87, 97, 98, 87 31a ____ +9 ___ June 27-30, 1964 __ 94, 86, 90, 99 (followed by 99, 91, 93 July 1-3) 39a ____ +7 ___ June 12-14, 1892 __ 88, 95, 94 43a ____ +6 ___ June 7 (8)-9 (10) 2011 __ 87, 94, 95, 87 43b ____ +6 ___ June 28-30, 1969 __ 96, 89, 91 43c ____ +6 ___ June 23-25 1966 __ 94, 94, 88 (82 June 26 then int 5 in list above) 44a ____ +5 ___ June 19-21, 1893 __ 91, 95, 89 48a ____ +4 ___ June 28-30, 1934 __ 82, 101, 91 (July 1-3 92, 93, 94) 48b ____ +4 ___ June 20 (21)- 22(23) 1949 __ 88, 95, 91, 88 (followed by int 27 in list above) 48c ____ +4 ___ June 26-28, 1953 __ 94, 92, 88 48d ____ +4 ___ June 7-9, 1999 ____ 94, 93, 87 48e ____ +4 ___ June 28-30, 2012 __ 88, 93, 93 (94 on July 1) 49a ____ +3 ___ June 19-21, 1931 __ 90, 97, 86 49b ____ +3 ___ June 18-20, 1987 __ 88, 89, 96 49c ____ +3 ___ June 17-19, 1991 __ 87, 91, 95 49d ____ +3 ___ June 27-29, 1944 __ 91, 89, 93 50a ____ +2 ___ June 27 (28) -29 (30) 1874 __ 83, 91, 98, 83 50b ____ +2 ___ June 12-14, 1961 __ 88, 96, 88 50c ____ +2 ___ June 13-15, 1994 __ 84, 92, 96 (82 June 16th, then int 29 in list above) 50d ____ +2 ___ June 15-17, 1991 __ 92, 94, 86 50e ____ +2 ___ June 4-6, 1923 ___ 89, 92, 91 51a ____ +1 ___ June 24-27, 1946 __ 90, 89, 91, 91 51b ____ +1 ___ June 24-26, 1870 __ 91, 94, 86 51c ____ +1 ___ June 3-5, 1940 ___ 88, 94, 89 51d ____ +1 ___ June 27-29, 1900 __ 92, 91, 88 51e ____ +1 ___ June 9-11, 2000 ___ 87, 92, 92 51f ____ +1 ___ June 23-25, 2013 __ 88, 92, 91 ______________ 97, 93 June 29-30 1959 failed to qualify even in group two (77 June 28 and 78 July 1) 90, 97, 96 June 29 to July 1 1945 also failed (82 June 28) but would be ranked 24 if counted using July 1. ======================== Will track June 2024 spell and see if it fits into list(s) or not. Counting group two, 79 spells of 3+ days averaged > 90.0F so, on average, they occur every other year, but several years have two or three, so frequency of years is about 70/155. This is one cli-stat that is not increasing in frequency, in fact, it appears to be dropping off (and it is likely not only due to tree canopy issue at NYC). June hot spells have not been very frequent or impressive in past three decades really.

Note: I was a bit late updating four seasons scoring in the previous contest thread but it is done now ... ... updates on anomalies and projections for June 2024 follow: __________________________________DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA (15) _______ (anom 14d) ________ +2.1 _ +2.5 _ +2.6 _ +2.3 _ +1.6 _ +1.3 ___ +6.2 _ +5.6 _ -1.6 (15) ______ (p anom 30d) _______+3.5 _ +3.5 _ +3.5 _ +3.0 _ +3.0 _ +2.5 __ +4.0 _ +4.0 _ -0.5 (26) ______ (p anom 30d) _______+3.5 _ +3.5 _ +3.5 _ +4.0 _ +3.0 _ +1.5 __ +5.0 _ +5.0 _ -0.5 (1st July) _ final anoms _________+3.4 _ +3.1 _ +2.9 _ +3.3 _ +3.5 _ +1.6 __ +5.6 _ +5.6 _ -1.0

Table of forecasts FORECASTER (order of entry) ____ DCA _ IAD _ BWI _ RIC ____ average (rank) Average of four forecasts shows warm bias and is ranked, data illustrated by graphic format. George BM (12) ___________________ 108 _ 110 _ 110 _ 111 ________________ 109.75 (1) Jebman (20) ______________________ 105 _ 102 _ 103 _ 101 _________ 102.75 (t3) Roger Smith (1) ___________________ 103 _ 105 _ 106 _ 107 ___________ 105.25 (2) Rhino16 (13) _______________________102 _ 104 _ 101 _ 104 _________ 102.75 (t3) yoda (28) __________________________102 _ 101 _ 101 _ 102 _______ 101.5 (t6) RickinBaltimore (2) ________________ 101 _ 102 _ 101 _ 103 _______ 101.75 (5) wxdude64 (6) _____________________ 101 _ 102 _ 101 _ 101 _______ 101.25 (t9) Roger Ramjet (18) __________________101 _ 101 _ 101 _ 101 _______ 101.0 (t11) North Balti Zen (4) _________________100 _ 103 _ 102 _ 101 _______ 101.5 (t6) katabatic (19) ______________________100 _ 102 _ 102 _ 102 _______ 101.5 (t6) Terpeast (10) ______________________ 100 _ 102 _ 102 _ 101 _______ 101.25 (t9) Weather53 (22) ___________________ 100 _ 101 _ 101 _ 100 ______ 100.5 (t13) PrinceFrederickWx (5) _____________100 _ 100 _ 101 _ 100 ______ 100.25 (t15) biodhokie (8) ______________________ 100 _ 100 __ 99 __99 ______ 99.50 (t23) Palocene (21) ______________________ 100 __ 99 _ 100 _ 101 ______ 100.0 (18) ___ Consensus (median) ___________ 100 _ 101 _ 101 _ 101 ______ 100.75 (12/13) WxUSAF (9) ________________________100 __ 99 _ 100 _ 100 ______ 99.75 (t19) WxDavis5784 (11) __________________ 99 _ 101 _ 103 _ 101 ______ 101.0 (t11) LittleVillageWx (17) _________________ 99 _ 101 _ 102 _ 100 ______ 100.5 (t13) MN Transplant (25) _________________ 99 _ 101 _ 100 __99 _______ 99.75 (t19) midAtlanticweather (24) ____________ 99 _ 101 __ 99 _ 102 _____ 100.25 (t15) Gramax Refugee (15) _______________ 99 _ 100 _ 101 _ 101 _____ 100.25 (t15) nw baltimore wx (3) ________________ 99 __ 99 _ 100 __ 99 ______ 99.25 (25) GATECH (26) _______________________ 99 __ 99 __ 99 __ 99 ______ 99.0 (t26) tplbge (23) _________________________ 99 __ 98 __ 99 __ 98 _____ 98.5 (29) TSG (7) _____________________________ 98 _ 101 __ 99 _ 101 ______ 99.75 (t19) LongRanger (27) ____________________98 _ 100 _ 102 __ 98 ______ 99.50 (t23) Jenkins Jinkies (14) _________________98 __ 99 __ 99 _ 100 ______ 99.0 (t26) Eskimo Joe (16) _____________________98 __ 99 __ 99 __ 99 _____ 98.75 (28) nmyers1204 (29) ___________________ 97 __ 99 _ 101 _ 102 ______ 99.75 (t19) ___ mean (avg) ____________________ 100.1_ 101.1_ 101.1 _101.1 ___100.85 _______________________________ Please note, as you review your entry, order of stations changed during posting period (for a few consecutive entries) near start of second half; a few entries were in order DCA_BWI_IAD_RIC so at first glance you could think your entry is wrong in table, but I was preserving table order that was used by most entrants .

A total of 52 forecasts plus "expert" forecasts and our consensus (24 12 5), and one late forecast as noted above. ... 43 (44 incl late) forecasts from this forum, and five from UK Net-weather, four from boards.ie (Ireland) weather forum. Good luck everyone.

Deadline for entries and edits (06z, 0200 EDT tonight) will be strictly enforced due to outlook for next week ... will work on table of entries at deadline and hope to have it available before Saturday 0600 EDT.

Four Seasons Contest __ Spring 2024 Update Points for four seasons ... 10 for first (total 3 scores), 7 for second, 6 for third, etc, 1 point for all entrants with 2/3 or 3/3 FORECASTER _______ Winter _TOTAL _ Points __ Spring _______ TOTAL __ Points ____ TOTAL _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ Mar, Apr, May wxallannj _____________________ 1736 ____10 ___ 712_774_738___2224 ___ 10 _____ 20 DonSutherland 1 ______________1524 ____ 7 ____ 758_622_630___2010 ____3 _____ 10 RJay __________________________1391 ____ 3 _____ 762_704_676___2142 ____7 _____ 10 ___ Consensus ________________1408 ____3.3 ___ 706_708_674___2088 ___5.5____ 8.8 RodneyS ______________________1497 ____ 6 ____ 550_560_590___1700 ____ 1 ______ 7 so_whats_happening _________ 1487 ____ 5 ____ 630_682_634___1946____2 ______ 7 Roger Smith ____________________793 ____ 1 ____ 702_794_628___2124 ____6 ______ 7 Tom __________________________ 1038 ____ 1 ____ 648_722_680___2050 ____5 ______ 6 hudsonvalley21 _______________1450 _____4 ____ 636_640_642___1918 ____ 1 ______ 5 rainsucks _____________________ 1111 _____ 1 ____ 704_682_654___2040 ____4 ______ 5 BKViking _____________________ 1336 _____2 ____ 594_686_641___1921 ____ 1 ______ 3 Scotty Lightning ______________1184 _____ 1 ____ 504_710_686___1900 ____ 1 ______ 2 wxdude64 ____________________ 1098 ____ 1 ____ 452_612_658___1722 ____ 1 ______ 2 ___ Normal ____________________ 1002 ____ 1 ____ 390_560_524___1474 ____ 1 ______ 2 Stormchaser Chuck ____________792 ____ 1 _____ --- _ --- _708___ 708 _____ 0 ______ 1 Rhino16 ________________________747 ____ 1 _____ --- _ --- _ 672___ 672 _____ 0 ______ 1 ===================== Persistence ___________________ 972 ____ 1 _____ 556_530_732 ___ 1818 _____ 1 ______ 2 ========================== After two seasons, wxallannj opens up a big lead with a full 20 points.

With discussion of potential heat records later in June, here are daily records: <<< DAILY RECORDS NYC for JUNE >>> Date ___ hi max ___ hi min _______ low max ____ low min ________ rain (24h)_ (48h) Jun 01 ___ 96 1895 ___ 77 1895 _______ 58 1945,2015_44 1945 ___________ 2.60 1887 __3.13 1940 Jun 02 ___ 96 1895 ___ 76 1895, 1918__ 52 1907,46__48 1880,1907,29,45.46 _ 2.79 2006 __3.78 2006 Jun 03 ___ 95 1895 ___ 75 1943 _______ 53 1945 _____45 1929 (68) _______ 3.01 1996 __3.55 2006 Jun 04 ___ 99 1925 ___ 78 1943 _______ 52 1945 _____48 1926 (58 5th) ___ 2.75 2003 __3.91 2007 (1.62+2.29) Jun 05 ___ 99 1925 ___ 78 1925 _______ 55 1945 _____47 1945 ____________ 2.80 1992 __2.80 1992* Jun 06 ___ 98 1925 ___ 77 1925 _______ 56 1894 _____47 1945 (70) _______ 2.62 2000 __2.90 1992 Jun 07 ___ 96 1925 ___ 76 2021 _______ 61 1891,1905_47 1879 (64)_______ 4.16 2013 __ 4.29 2013 Jun 08 ___ 95 1933 ___ 77 1984 _______ 56 1947 _____47 1932 ____________1.02 1900 __ 4.64 2013 Jun 09 ___ 97 1933 ___ 77 1984 _______ 57 1916 _____47 1980 (63) _______ 2.55 1989 __2.63 1989 _ also 2.36" 2dR 1897 Jun 10 ___ 96 2008 ___ 79 1984 _______ 55 1881 _____49 1881, 1972 _____ 2.07 1881 ___2.85 1881 Jun 11 ___ 95 1973 ___ 78 1984 _______ 57 1916 _____46 1972 (69) _______ 1.14 1911 ___2.09 1881 Jun 12 ___ 93 1933,73,2017_76 2017 _____62 1924 _____48 1979 (69 11th) _ 2.18 1903,10_2.47 1910 (1903 2.26", 1911 2.04") Jun 13 ___ 96 1961 ___ 77 2017 _______ 55 1982 _____51 1953 (63) _______ 1.71 1941 ___2.86 1998 (1.29+1.57) Jun 14 ___ 99 1956 ___ 78 2005 _______ 59 1907 _____49 1875 (64 13th) __ 2.54 1917___2.54 1917*__ also 2.38" 1896 (1d) Jun 15 ___ 96 1891,1988,94_76 1899,1945,56_60 1916,71__48 1933 ____________ 1.13 1915 ___2.57 1917 Jun 16 ___ 97 1891 ___ 78 1891 _______ 62 1965 _____52 1927 ____________ 1.31 1972 ___1.36 1985 (.17+1.19) Jun 17 ___ 96 1957 ___ 77 1957 _______ 61 1959 _____51 1926 ____________ 1.82 2011 ___1.82 2011* Jun 18 ___ 95 1929 ___ 76 1957,2014 __63 1920 _____48 1950 (63 19th) __ 2.33 1871___2.33 1871*__ also 2.30" 2009 (1d) Jun 19 ___ 98 1994 ___ 76 1993 _______ 59 1935 _____52 1920 ____________ 1.93 1934___3.18 1967 (2.15+1.03) Jun 20 ___ 98 1923 ___ 76 1892 _______ 59 1958 _____49 1914 ____________ 1.39 1919___1.93 1934** Jun 21 ___ 97 1953,88_ 79 2012 _______ 63 1958,2003_49 1897 (67)_______1.70 1902 ___1.70 1902* Jun 22 ___ 98 1988 ___ 76 1941 _______ 62 1928,52 __ 52 1897, 1940 ______1.96 1887 ___2.54 1887 Jun 23 ___ 96 1888 ___ 77 1888 _______ 59 1918 _____49 1918 ____________ 1.75 1887 ___3.71 1887 Jun 24 ___ 96 1888 ___ 79 1909 _______ 59 1940 _____52 1881, 1932 ______ 1.46 1984 ___1.75 1887** Jun 25 ___ 99 1943,52_ 78 1909 _______ 63 1974 _____53 1873 (62 24th)___1.19 1925 ___1.52 1984 Jun 26 ___100 1952 ___ 81 1952 _______ 63 1893 _____56 1893, 1974,79 ___4.29 1884 ___4.74 1884 Jun 27 ___101 1966 ___ 76 1943 _______ 61 1968 _____55 1940 ____________ 2.11 1932 ___4.29 1884** __ also 1.99"R 1919 Jun 28 ___ 96 1969,91 _ 77 1876,1943__ 60 1938 ___ 54 1888,93,1915,95 _ 1.69 1938 ___2.76 1938 Jun 29 ___101 1934 ___ 78 2021 _______ 65 1903 _____52 1888, 1919 ______ 2.57 1903 ___2.57 1903* Jun 30 ___ 99 1964 ___ 79 1945,59 _____65 1967 _____ 53 1919 ____________ 3.07 1984 ___3.07 1984* ____________________________________ * 48h rain record is set by same day's 24h record (no rain previous day) ** 48h rain record is set by previous day's 24h record (no rain on date listed) Temps listed in brackets after low min (e.g. 67F 21st) are same day max not qualifying for low max record in adjacent column. On occasion a next-day or previous-day low max is listed. (June 29)_ 101 1934 replaced 98 1874. Note three day interval separating record low max and high max in 1952 (22nd-25th).

I will add you in, would be ineligible for a contest win but will rank it anyway.

I will be getting a table of forecasts together at the deadline, no extensions are foreseen, but edit away if you wish, I won't be collecting any data until after the stated deadline a week from now. Luckily it's not 1925 or we would already know outcomes.

Table of forecasts for June 2024 FORECASTER _____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Scotty Lightning ___________+3.0 _ +2.5 _ +2.0 __ +1.5 _ +2.0 _ +2.0 __ +1.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.0 BKViking ___________________+2.2 _ +2.3 _ +1.7 __ +0.8 _ +2.0 _ +3.0 __ +2.5 _ +1.8 _ +1.0 RJay __________ (-2%) ______+2.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.0 __ +2.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.0 __ +2.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.0 rainsucks __________________ +2.0 _ +1.8 _ +1.7 __ +2.4 _ +1.5 _ +2.0 ___ +2.4 _ +1.8 _ +1.3 Rhino16 ____________________+2.0 _ +1.5 _ +1.8 __ +3.0 _ +3.2 _ +2.1 ___ +5.0 _+5.5 _+1.5 Roger Smith _______________ +1.5 _ +1.6 _ +0.9 __ +2.0 _ +2.3 _ +4.0 __ +3.5 _ +2.5 _+1.2 Tom ________________________+1.2 _ +1.3 _ +1.3 __ +0.9 _ +1.3 _ +1.8 ___ +1.7 _ +1.7 _ +0.6 ___ Consensus ____________ +1.0 _ +1.3 _ +1.1 __ +1.0 _ +1.4 _ +2.0 ___+1.8 _ +1.8 _ +1.1 hudsonvalley21 ____________ +0.8 _ +1.2 _ +1.1 __ +0.3 _ +1.6 _ +2.2 __ +2.1 _ +1.4 _ +1.5 so_whats_happening ______ +0.6 _ +0.7 _ +0.9 __ +0.5 _ +1.0 _ +1.2 __ +1.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.0 DonSutherland1 ____________+0.5 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 __ +1.0 _ +0.3 _ +1.0 __ +1.2 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 wxallannj ___________________+0.5 _ +0.7 _ +1.0 __ +1.0 _ +0.5 _ +2.3 __ +1.5 _ +2.1 _ +1.5 RodneyS ____________________ 0.0 _ +1.1 _ +0.3 __ -1.8 _ -0.5 _ +0.9 ___ +1.6 _ +0.6 _ +0.6 StormchaserChuck1 ________ 0.0 _ +0.2 _ -0.3 __ -0.5 _ +0.8 _ +1.0 ___ +1.6 _ +1.8 _ +0.7 ___ Normal _________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 wxdude64 __________________-0.8 _-0.2 _ +0.7 __ -0.3 _ -0.4 _ +0.5 ___ +2.1 _ +1.7 _ +2.1 ________________________ warmest and coldest forecasts color coded, Normal is colder than all forecasts for IAH, DEN, PHX and SEA Persistence _ (05-24) ___________ +2.1 __ +1.8 _ +1.3 ____ +4.2 _ +3.1 _ +1.9 _______ -0.5 _ +1.8 _ -1.9 ============== Seasonal max contest FORECASTER ____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ORD _ATL _IAH __ DEN _PHX _SEA Scotty Lightning __________ 103 _ 100 __ 98 ____96 __ 104 _ 118 ____ 100 _ 121 __ 92 wxdude64 ________________ 102 _ 102 _ 102 ___ 101 __ 101 _ 106 ____ 104 _ 118 __ 98 Roger Smith _______________102 _ 100 _ 100 ____101 __ 101 _ 109 ____ 104 _ 119 __ 97 rainsucks __________________102 _ 100 __ 99 ___ 104 __ 102 _ 107 ____ 104 _ 120 __99 hudsonvalley21 ___________ 101 _ 101 __ 99 ____ 95 ___ 98 _ 103 ____ 100 _ 119 __ 98 Rhino16 ____________________101 _ 100 __ 99 ___ 102 __ 102 _ 106 ____ 100 _ 115 __ 98 ___ Consensus ___________ 101 _ 100 __ 99 ____99 __ 101 _ 106 ____ 100 _ 119 __ 97 DonSutherland1 ___________ 101 _ 100 __ 98 ____ 96 ___ 97 _ 104 ____ 101 _ 118 __ 97 Tom _______________________ 101 __ 98 __ 98 ____ 99 ___102 _ 106 _____ 99 _ 118 __ 96 RJay _______________________100 __ 98 _ 100 ___ 100 __ 101 _ 105 ____ 100 _ 119 __ 95 so_whats_happening ______100 __ 98 __100 ____ 97 ___ 99 _ 102 ______98 _ 119 __ 97 RodneyS ___________________99 __ 99 __ 97 _____ 96 ___ 97 _ 102 _____ 99 _ 118 __ 97 wxallannj __________________ 98 __ 98 __ 96 _____ 99 ___ 97 _ 102 ____ 101 _ 120 __ 95 __ max to date (June 30) __100 _ 94 __ 98 _____ 97 __100 __ 98 _____100 _ 117 _ 86 (not entered yet? you can post seasonal max to June 15 _ any of above can also be edited to June 15) Will add final consensus values June 16

__ Table of forecasts __ 2024 N Atlantic tropical season contest __ Scoring rules at base of table, order of entry breaks any tied scoring ranks. NOAA, expert consensus, UK and contest consensus will be ranked independently (won't affect your contest ranks) ... a few entries were posted on Net-weather (UK) and boards.ie weather forum (Ireland). ... ranks will be (a) overall and also (b) for each forum. Order of entry is for American Wx Forum entries, separate coded order of entry is given for guests. (e.g. NW-1 indicates first of five Net-weather entries). In event of U.S. and guest forecasts being tied, I will determine from forum posted dates relative order of entry. Contest consensus is a median (not a mean) of (not-specific-expert-group) on time entries. FORECASTER (order of entry) _____________storms __ hurr __ major TomCosgrave (IE-3) ________________________ 39 _____ 26 ______ 7 CurlyHeadBarrett (late) _____________________ 33 _____ 15 ______ 8 (will rank, ineligible to win) karmac (7) __________________________________ 33 _____ 14 ______ 7 WYorksWeather (NW-5) _____________________32 _____ 17 ______ 8 LongBeachSurfFreak (10) ___________________ 32 _____ 12 ______ 4 nvck (8) _____________________________________ 29 _____ 15 ______ 5 Tezeta (16) __________________________________ 29 _____ 13 ______ 7 Jtm12180 (33) _______________________________28 _____ 16 ______ 7 WxWatcher007 (1) __________________________ 28 _____ 13 ______ 6 cnimbus (3) _________________________________ 27 _____ 17 ______ 6 Yanksfan (9) _________________________________27 _____ 17 ______ 5 ineedsnow (32) ______________________________27 _____ 14 ______ 8 metalicwx367 (34) __________________________ 26 _____ 15 ______ 7 LovintheWhiteFluff (31) ______________________26 _____ 13 ______ 6 SnowLover22 (43) __________________________ 26 _____ 13 ______ 6 Normandy (14) ______________________________ 25 _____ 17 _____ 10 Brian5671 (22) ______________________________ 25 _____ 16 ______ 3 Diggiebot (11) _______________________________25 _____ 14 ______ 8 Matty40s (NW-3) ___________________________ 25 _____ 12 ______ 7 ncforecaster89 (38) ________________________ 25 _____ 12 ______ 6 CHSVol (5) __________________________________ 25 _____ 12 ______ 5 JonClaw (23) ________________________________25 _____ 12 ______ 5 Big Jims Videos (21) ________________________ 25 _____ 12 ______ 4 wxdude64 (late) ____________________________ 25 ______ 8 ______ 5 (will rank, ineligible to win) SnowenOutThere (39) _______________________24 _____ 14 ______ 6 ImleahBradley (19) __________________________24 _____ 14 ______ 4 IntenseWind002 (24) ________________________24 _____ 13 ______ 5 Stebo (17) ___________________________________24 _____ 12 ______ 5 Eyewall (late) ________________________________24 _____ 12 ______ 5 (will rank, ineligible to win) DOCARCH (IE-2) ____________________________ 24 _____ 11 ______ 6 LakeNormanStormin (41) ____________________24 _____ 11 ______ 5 Roger Smith (20) ____________________________24 _____ 11 ______ 4 ___ Contest consensus (Median) __________24 _____ 12 _____ 5 StormchaserChuck1 (4) _____________________23 _____ 13 ______ 6 GeorgeBM (37) ______________________________23 _____ 13 ______ 6 FPizz (18) ___________________________________ 23 _____ 13 ______ 4 ___ Expert consensus _______________________ 23 _____ 11 ______ 5 Hotair (28) __________________________________ 23 _____ 11 ______ 4 Southmdwatcher (42) _______________________22 _____ 15 ______ 8 Snowlover2 (15) _____________________________22 _____ 14 ______ 6 cardinalland (26) ____________________________ 22 _____ 12 ______ 6 Yoda (30) ____________________________________22 _____ 12 ______ 5 ___ UKMO forecast __________________________ 22 _____ 12 ______ 4 Seminole (25) _______________________________ 22 _____ 11 ______ 3 Metwatch (NW-1) ___________________________ 22 _____ 10 ______ 4 ldub23 (40) __________________________________21 _____ 11 ______ 5 ___ NOAA median forecast __________________ 21 _____ 10.5 ___ 5.5 Gawx (35) ___________________________________21 _____ 10 ______ 5 Pauldry (IE-1) ________________________________21 ______ 8 ______ 4 Rhino16 (2) __________________________________20 _____ 12 ______ 5 Torch Tiger (13) _____________________________ 20 _____ 11 ______ 6 vpBob (27) __________________________________ 20 ______ 9 ______ 5 jlauderdal (36) ______________________________ 19 ______ 9 ______ 5 dancerwithwings (NW-2) ____________________19 ______ 8 ______ 3 Kirkcaldy Weather (NW-4) ___________________18 _____ 11 ______ 5 Ed Snow and Hurricane Fan (6) _______________ 18 _____ 10 ______ 4 wkd (29) _____________________________________15 ______ 9 ______ 4 tae laidir (IE-4) ______________________________ 15 ______ 9 ______ 4 Retrobuc (12) ________________________________ 13 ______ 8 ______ 2 Consensus is median of on-time forecasts, late forecasts are not used. Scoring for contest will follow same rules as previous years. Errors for named storms (S) are applied at 50% compared to errors in H and M For H and M error deductions (from 100 points) are an average of error and error squared. For example, a forecast of 11 H and outcome of 13 takes a penalty of 3 (average of 2 and 4). An error of six takes a penalty of 21 (average of 6 and 36) ... etc. Errors for number of storms will be calculated in similar way but will be divided by 2, so if you predicted 30 storms and 24 occur, error deduction is half of 21, or 10.5. Scores around 95 usually win this contest. Note: If you discover your forecast is a duplicate of an earlier submitted forecast and you want to alter your forecast to nearest available different forecast, post by June 10.

Difficult to edit above post, basically, NOAA will go into contest at 21 10.5 5.5 and expert consensus will be 23 11 5. I will note UK 22 12 4 also. Working on table of forecasts, will be available on June 6. Contest is now closed to entries but I would accept any posted before table appears.

According to wikipedia, following are pre-season expert forecasts ... TSR Dec 11, 2023 20 9 4 CSU April 4, 2024 23 11 5 MFM April 5, 2024 21 11 N/A TSR April 8, 2024 23 11 5 UA April 8, 2024 21 11 5 MU April 12, 2024 26 11 5 NCSU April 16, 2024 15–20 10–12 3–4 UPenn April 24, 2024 33 N/A N/A SMN May 6, 2024 20–23 9–11 4–5 UKMO* May 22, 2024 22 12 4 NOAA May 23, 2024 17–25 8–13 4–7 [ TSR May 30, 2024 24 12 6

<<<< ===[]===[] .......... ==== Annual scoring for Jan-May 2024 ==== ..........[]===[]=== >>>> wxallannj _______________ 392 _372 _384 __1148 __314 _402 _304 __1020 _2168 __348 _444 _424 _1216____ 3384 rainsucks _______________444 _452 _370 __1266__299 _342 _318 __ 959 _ 2225 __234 _366 _326 __926 ____ 3151 ___ Consensus _________358 _346_368 __1072 __312_350 _306 __968 _ 2040 __280 _420 _376__1076____ 3116 RJay ____________________389 _394 _333 __1116 __ 313 _350 _272 __ 935 _2051 __ 288 _393 _337 __1018 ____ 3069 (3126)* DonSutherland1 ________364 _380 _390 __1134 __ 316 _324 _256 __ 896 _2030 __ 328 _384 _310 __1022 ____ 3052 so_whats_happening ___340 _340 _380 __1060 __311 _318 _252 __ 881 _ 1941 __ 304 _360 _384 __ 1048 ____ 2989 hudsonvalley21 _________354 _288 _312 __ 954 __314 _350 _336 __1000 _1954 __290 _346 _336 ___ 972 ____ 2926 BKViking ________________360 _348 _374 __1082 __241 _319 _261 __ 821 _ 1903 __272 _401 _ 345 __ 1018 ____ 2921 Tom _____________________306 _296 _318 __ 920 __250 _326 _282 __ 858 _1778 __ 246 _392 _362 __ 1000 ____ 2778 RodneyS ________________236 _306 _346 __ 888 __195 _276 _320 __ 791 _ 1679 __ 354 _342 _396 __ 1092 ____ 2771 Scotty Lightning ________311 _249 _ 281 __ 841 __ 184 _359 _323 __ 866 _1707 __ 283 _375 _391 __ 1049 ____ 2756 Roger Smith _____________296 _260 _192 __ 748 __320 _365 _310 __ 995 _ 1743 __ 234 _374 _272 __ 880 ____ 2623 wxdude64 ______________ 249 _263 _331 __ 843 __224 _259 _239 __ 722 _ 1565 __ 307 _363 _379 __1049 ____ 2614 Persistence _____________ 378 _342 _376 __1096 __ 146 _306 _260 __712 _ 1808 _ 078 _ 236 _340 __ 654 ____ 2462 Normal __________________ 192 _176 _264 __ 632 __ 134 _264 _204 __602 _ 1234 __ 264 _374 _412 __ 1050 ____ 2284 Stormchaser Chuck (3/5)_150 _172 _198 __ 520 __ 206 _ 98 _ 94 ___ 398 __ 918 ___120 _ 264 _198 __ 582 ____ 1500 (2500) Rhino16 (3/5) ____________ 138 _118 _120 __ 376 __ 133 _192 _ 126 ___ 451 __ 827 ___136 _ 246 _210 __ 592 ____ 1419 (2365) * (note: tracking RJay raw score before Feb late penalty of 47 pts ... at current scoring, only affects rank relative to Consensus (would be tied) also, pro-rated scores for 3/5 entrants above would be just below field and above Normal. ----------------------------------- Best forecasts * tied wins (one per * ) ^ 3 forecasters tied (plus Consensus and normal -- 4 for SEA for 2024-03 and PHX for April) FORECASTER ___________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent _ c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west___ TOTAL wxallannj ________________2*___ 1*___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 2** __0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___2*___ 2 ____ 2 ______ 1 _May* rainsucks _______________ 2 ___ 3 ___ 2 ____ 2 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1^ ___ 0 ____ 0 ______ 1 _ Feb ___ Consensus _________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1^____ 0 _____ 0 DonSutherland1 _________0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 2* ___ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1^____ 0 ______ 0 RJay _____________________1*___ 1*___ 0 ____ 1*____ 0 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1^ ____1 ______ 1 _ Mar so_whats_happening ____0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*____ 0 ______ 0 hudsonvalley21 _________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 2**__ 1*___ 3 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1*____ 0 ______ 0 BKViking ________________ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1^___ 0 ____ 0 ______0 RodneyS ________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 2 ___ 1*___ 0 ____ 1 ______ 1 _ Jan Tom _____________________ 0 ___ 2**__0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1^___ 0 ____ 0 ______ 0 Scotty Lightning _________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 1^____ 0 ______ 0 Roger Smith _____________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___2**__ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1^___ 0 ____ 1 ______ 1 _Apr wxdude64 _______________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 _____1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ______ 0 Normal __________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1^____ 0 ______ 0 Stormchaser Chuck _____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 1*___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ____0 ______ 0 Rhino16 _________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ______ 0 EXTREmE FORECAST REPORT so far, a total of 27 qualified (21 for warmest, 6 for coldest) ... Jan 2-2, Feb 8-0, Mar 4-0, Apr 4-2, May 3-2. * tied for a win or loss, scores adjusted in final col. FORECASTER _______________ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _ Apr _ May __ TOTAL __ adj for ties rainsucks ____________________ 2-0 _ 4-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-2* _ 0-0 __ 8-2 ___8.0 - 1.5 hudsonvalley21 ______________ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 3**-0_0-0 __ 4-0 ___3.0 - 0 wxallannj _____________________0-0 _ 1*-0_ 0-0 _ 2*-1 _ 1-0 __ 4-1 ___ 3.0 - 1 Roger Smith __________________0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-1 _ 2*-1 _ 1*-0__ 4-2 ___ 3.0 - 2 RodneyS _____________________ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 1-0 __ 3-0 Scotty Lightning _____________ 0-0 _ 2*-0_0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 2-0 ___ 1.5 - 0 Stormchaser Chuck __________0-2 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 2*-0__ 2-2 ___ 1.5 - 2.0 wxdude64 ___________________ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 1-0 DonSutherland1 ______________0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 1-0 Rhino16 ______________________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 __ 1-0 ___ Normal ___________________ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-1 _ 0-0 __ 1-1 RJay _________________________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-2 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 1-2 BKViking _____________________ 0-0 _ 0-1 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 0-1 Tom, swh ______________________0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 0-0

+1.5 _ +1.6 _ +0.9 _ +2.0 _ +2.3 _ +4.0 _ +3.5 _ +2.5 _ +1.2 102 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 101 _ 101 _ 109 ____ 104 _ 119 _ 97