Roger Smith

Touch and go whether the severe heat makes it into NYC or gets cut off around central NJ on Friday but what looks more certain is a chance of severe storms on Saturday as a strong wave forms around Ohio and moves towards n NJ and NYC. My guess is something like 95-100F in central NJ on Friday, 92-95 F at NYC airports, 85-90 at ISP and POU then 2-3" rain potential (hit or miss probably) across the region on Saturday. The southwest heat dome is currently at 600 dm over NM and is supposed to start deflating gradually over next five days to the low 590s allowing more of a typical monsoon mid-summer pattern to replace the magnifying glass effect. By this weekend there could be some monsoon storms forming over AZ. I notice the heat has moved as far north as the southern tier of counties in Nebraska but not so much beyond that, Omaha was only into the mid-80s while Topeka was 102. That is probably a precursor of a similar sharp gradient with the heat as it makes its one or two day presence felt further east, but the southwest ridge and the Atlantic ridge never make much of a connection before it all collapses this weekend. With that heavy rain potential on Saturday, temps could be between 75 and 80 during the rain but highs could reach 85-90 in any sunshine.

As of today, summer max ... ... DCA __ 94 on June 2 and July 13 IAD ___ 96 on July 13 BWI ___ 97 on June 2 (96 on July 13) RIC ___ 94 on July 4, 13

Remains to be seen where 2023 may fit into this summary: MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES of YEARS 1869 to 2022 106 _ 1936 104 _ 1918, 1977, 2011 103 _ 1948, 1966, 2001, 2010 102 _ 1930, 1933, 1944, 1949, 1953, 1980, 1991, 1993, 1995 101 _ 1881, 1934, 1957, 1999 100 _ 1898, 1901, 1911, 1917, 1926, 1937, 1952, 1954, 1955, 2012 99 _ 1885, 1919, 1923, 1924, 1925, 1929, 1931, 1943, 1956, 1962, 1964, 1983, 1988, 2005 98 _ 1876, 1879, 1890, 1891, 1896, 1940, 1941, 1963, 1968, 1973, 1975, 1982, 1986, 1994, 2002, 2013, 2021 97 _ 1892, 1895, 1900, 1912, 1942, 1945, 1959, 1961, 1969, 1987, 1997, 2006, 2015, 2022 96 _ 1872, 1880, 1887, 1888, 1894, 1905, 1908, 1921, 1932, 1938, 1939, 1967, 1971, 1976, 1981, 1984, 1989, 1996, 2008, 2016, 2018, 2020 95 _ 1869, 1883, 1893, 1899, 1903, 1913, 1914, 1916, 1935, 1947, 1950, 1965, 1974, 1978, 1979, 1985, 1990, 2019 94 _ 1870, 1873, 1878, 1886, 1904, 1906, 1910, 1915, 1920, 1922, 1928, 1946, 1951, 1970, 1972, 2003, 2017 93 _ 1874, 1875, 1882, 1897, 1909, 1958, 1992, 1998, 2000 (2023 so far) 92 _ 1871, 1877, 1907, 1927, 2007, 2009, 2014 91 _ 1884, 1889, 1960, 2004 90 _ 1902

__ Final scoring for July 2023 __ ... scoring based on end of month anomalies reported in previous post ... ^ indicates max 60 scoring for PHX. ____________________________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent_ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA__west __ TOTAL wxallannj ____________________92 _ 94 _ 98 __ 284 __ 86 _ 76 _ 80 __ 242 _ 526 __100_ 36^_ 84 __220 ____ 746 RJay _________________________82 _100 _ 96 __ 278 __ 66 _ 86 _ 96__ 248 _ 526 __26 _ 60^_ 98__ 184 ____ 710 DonSutherland1 _____________ 86 _ 94 _ 92 __ 272 __ 94 _ 76 _ 70 __ 240 _ 512 __ 92 _ 24^_ 78 __ 194 ____ 706 BKViking _____________________ 92 _ 88 _ 92 __ 272 __ 84 _ 74 _ 86 __ 244 _ 516 __ 32 _ 54^_100__186 ____ 702 ___ Consensus _______________ 94 _ 88 _ 88 __ 270 __ 92 _ 74 _ 78 __ 244 _ 514 __ 56 _ 27^_ 92 __ 175 ____ 689 wxdude64 ____________________74 _ 66 _ 70 __ 210 __ 98 _ 70 _ 82 __ 250 _ 460 __ 96 _48^_ 80 __ 224 ____ 684 hudsonvalley21 ______________ 98 _ 86 _ 96 __ 280 __ 92 _ 74 _ 66 __ 232 _ 512 __ 60 _ 12^_ 96 __ 168 ____ 680 Scotty Lightning _____________ 92 _ 90 _ 84 __ 266 __ 96 _ 76 _ 76 __ 248 _ 514 __ 66 _ 24^_ 72 __ 162 ____ 676 Tom _________________________ 98_ 88 _ 84 __ 270 __ 84 _ 68 _ 70 __ 222 _ 492 __ 54 _ 06^_ 84 __ 144 ____ 636 RodneyS _____________________ 80 _ 76 _ 76 __ 232 __ 68 _ 52 _ 86 __ 206 _ 438 __ 52 _ 42^_ 98 __ 192 ____ 630 Roger Smith __________________94 _ 76 _ 76 __ 246 __ 98 _ 42 _ 76 __ 216 _ 462 __ 46 _ 24^_ 72 __ 142 ____ 604 ___ Normal ___________________ 88 _ 70 _ 74 __ 232 __ 94 _ 56 _ 46 __ 196 _ 428 __ 76 _ 00 __72 __ 148 ____ 576 ___ Persistence (June anoms) ____ -2.2 _ -2.0 _-2.1 ____ ____ +0.2 _-1.3 _+2.1 ____ ____ ____ __ -4.0 _-2.0* _ 0.0 ___ Persistence scoring _______44 _ 30 _ 32 __ 106 __ 98 _ 30 _ 88 __ 216 _ 322 __ 44 _ 00 _ 72 __ 116 ____ 438 ____________________________ EXTREME FORECASTS DCA, BOS, SEA do not qualify for an extreme forecast. (BOS and SEA missed by 0.1 as 3rd warmest forecasts were top scores) NYC, ATL, IAH and PHX are wins for RJay warmest forecasts. ORD is a shared win for wxdude64 and Roger Smith, and a loss for RodneyS (also a loss for Normal) with coldest forecast. DEN is a win for second coldest forecast (wxallannj) and a loss for coldest wxdude64.

A lot depends on site characteristics for airport weather stations. If the instruments are close to tarmac and parking lots, those might be larger factors than urban heat island if the airport is not surrounded by urban areas. Shannon airport in Ireland is essentially a rural location but Irish weather folk seem to believe it has a 1 C bias in hot weather due to the instruments being very close to tarmac and parking lots. DCA is another such location. I would imagine that Phoenix would be running near 118F even if there was no human presence, in this weather pattern, but the nights might not be quite as warm maybe? A good station to check for long-term unaffected (by urban effect) trends might be Bryce Canyon airport in Utah or Canyonlands airport near Moab. Neither of those locations has a very large airport around, and they are miles out of town (for Bryce Canyon, the nearby urban locations are all very small, Panguitch UT might have a tiny heat island; for Moab, Canyonlands is ten miles out of town and Moab itself probably has a very small heat island. Another location with no heat island potential would be hanksville UT which is east of Capitol Reef NP. The village is just a few houses and a gas station and motel, it would not have an urban heat island at all.

(edit for Don reaching hurricane status ...) For the contest, the count is now 5/1/0 ... here's an overview of storm names un-named Jan storm, Arlene, Bret, Cindy _ done (4/0/0) Don __ now present, becoming a hurricane on July 22nd. (5/1/0) possible storm names to come: Emily, Franklin, Gert, Harold, Idalia, Jose, Katia, Lee, Margot Nigel, Ophelia, Philippe, Rina, Sean, Tammy, Vince, Whitney

Two points about July (and August) 1936, the heat was definitely more persistent in the central plains than the eastern regions, but that week when the heat spread east was brutally hot and both daytime and overnight high min records were widespread. People were sleeping outdoors all over the affected regions for at least several consecutive nights to avoid heat prostration. No matter what the rest of the month felt like, that week would have prompted a major media and political response (back then it was just media, FDR had enough to do without trying to fix the weather). Also it was a year to year recurring pattern to some extent, every summer 1933 to 1937 had some brutal heat waves. The other point would be that many seem to think we caused the 1930s heat waves by poor agricultural practices in the great plains region. I doubt this is true (while I don't disagree there were poor practices). The atmosphere would have created those severe heat waves anyway, our contribution to it was probably on the order of the last degree possibly. (so 104/77 instead of 105/78 at Toronto for example). In the roundup of how locations fared relative to monthly normal, no normal was shown for Toronto but that monthly value was actually about 2F (or 1 C) above the 1901-30 average and slightly above more recent averages. July 1936 was t27 warmest of 183 years (with five other years, at 22.9 C) but obviously if the period July 7-14 had persisted all month it would have easily been warmest on record, which at this point is 25.5 C (1921) closely followed by 2021 (25.4 C). Those stats are all uncorrected for urban heat island but 1936 (reduced to 22.3) only moves up very slightly to t25 warmest in my estimates. Also it had a similar mean to several other July outcomes in the 1930s. Some of those months had longer hot spells but they were less intense. July 1932 was quite a cool month but all summers from about 1929 to 1941 had significant heat waves at some point, then 1942 had the very heavy rainfalls mid-July that Sacrus mentioned in his daily historical update. These were less extreme in Ontario but did set some daily records there too. Now there's another past weather event that would have been very volatile in today's political environment, 30.6" of rain in six hours! I have seen 6" of rain in six hours in Ontario (in Aug 1976 and from hugo's remnant low in Sep 1989) and it was pouring non-stop, cannot imagine five times as much falling. At NYC, July 1936 was very close to the overall median at t75 warmest out of 154. So relative to Toronto it had a cooler month. That also remains close to the median with u.h.i. adjustment (t75 again). Toronto ranks also improve by one (to t26, t24) in the same data set because a hot July in 1868 is dropped from the direct comparison (NYC began in 1869). The continental influence in this case was considerably stronger. Other summers with large variations in ranks include 1916, 1919, and 1921. But many years have very similar ranks at both locations. Anyone interested in seeing all this data can find it all here: (our climate change forum, and also this link where excel files are posted, they are too large to fit here ... https://www.community.netweather.tv/topic/93113-toronto-180-a-north-american-data-base-of-182-years-now-includes-nyc-1869-2022/page/2/ My feeling is, if 1911 and 1936 could produce multiple consecutive scorchers in the 101-110 range, then there's no reason to suppose that years like 1977, 1988 and 2012 (which you could argue were similar) represent the upper limit of what could be experienced in future years, and after the unprecedented heat dome hit my present location in June 2021, I am certainly well aware that previous upper limits can be not just edged out but pushed aside rather brutally. We had three days here that broke all-time previous records. Even without us heating up the atmosphere, natural variability can do the same and no doubt it will happen, sooner or later, that 1936 will have to step aside (a sobering thought). The whole point of the discussion (to call it a debate would be perhaps over-stating) is that we have not really worked out whether or not our modification of the atmosphere is creating different dynamics or just warming up the old dynamics. For example, the heat dome was basically a 599 dm high with 588 dm thicknesses acting like a magnifying glass over our region. Now the question is, without an advanced human economy present, would that have happened anyway, and stopped 1-2 F deg short without the added ghg, or did we add dm to those disturbing numbers? In 1936 I would imagine the upper dynamics were at least equal to those and probably a bit higher. I have read about nearly equal western heat waves way back in 1898 as well as 1941. So my hunch is, we are not creating these dynamics, we are just adding a bit of heat to them. Perhaps it's a bit of both.

If the 1936 heat wave happened this year, can you imagine the political response? Or that scorcher at the end of August into September 1953? I'm seeing this warming climate as largely a bump up in overnight temperatures and a very slight increase, if any at all, in daytime readings. The main change is, we don't get those cooler spells with clear and very cool nights as often, and it takes some sort of major anomaly in the upper flow to create one at all. This seems to be the case all over the hemisphere and not just in the eastern U.S., people in the British Isles notice the same pattern, although relatively speaking, they seem to be getting more and more intense heat waves too. I don't think the records show that to be the case in North America. What some call global warming, I call global blanding. The frequency of bland weather patterns is certainly increasing. They tend to have quite warm nights and so-so daytime warmth. Now some believe that severe weather is increasing, I view it more as steady-state. You can cherry pick data either way to show it increasing or decreasing, but on the whole, I don't see obvious trends of increasing severe weather (excluding temperature related severe weather). For both hurricanes and tornados, the biggest outbreaks or events are often well back in the past. Of course one has to factor in improvements in forecasting and warnings, and public awareness. I would not want to mis-represent by throwing in death toll data from past events, not as many people would die today, especially if you removed population increases in the path of these most powerful events. But even so, flooding rainfalls, severe windstorms, tornado and hurricane -- none of these is really on the increase, and in fact you would expect them to decrease slightly if air mass contrast was less intense (as is obviously the case in the warmer climate). I think there are probably more forest fires in recent decades but perhaps a return to a reality which existed before, the anomalous period may have been something like 1950 to 1985 with fewer fires. When you read historical accounts of the 1910-1940 period in western regions, there were numerous references to thick smoky haze from forest fires. It has to be kept in mind that they did not attempt to suppress them back then. On the other hand, there were fewer severe fire seasons around the 1960s and 1970s. This modern era of frequent fires seems to have begun to ramp up in 1988, the year of widespread heat waves and the severe Yellowstone region fires. Some other bad western fire seasons were 1998, 2003, 2009 and 2018. A problem is separating out human caused fires from naturally occurring fires. Some of the human caused fires are deliberate arson, for various reasons including a desire to get work, a mental illness problem (for example, a desire for recognition, either directly as in an arrest, or indirectly as in people seeing the results, a forest on fire), or even a misguided political motive (accelerate the political process by producing the claimed results of global warming -- it happens, court cases prove it). Other human caused fires are accidental, at least to the extent that you can call tossing a butt into a dry forest an accident (to my mind it amounts to arson), or parking a very hot car engine over dry grass (then the person leaves, not realizing they have left behind a slowly spreading ground fire). Unattended campfires in windy weather can be a big problem also.

I don't strongly disagree with any of the points raised. just trying to assess the most accurate intensity of urban heat island components of recent warming trends. Anyway, the OP started this thread to have a discussion of natural variability which continues to exist and which modulates the climate as it warms. So I would hope we can return to that focus and discuss that 11-year signal in summer temperatures in NYC which I would assume would probably apply to a much larger region of eastern and perhaps central North America.

To the earlier post, urban heat island is definitely a real phenomenon, you can measure its strength by driving a mobile thermometer through the urban-rural boundary on a clear night. The concept of reducing urban temperature series by subtracting u.h.i. is not a skeptic dodge as perhaps implied, but in fact is practised by even the UK Met Office with the CET series. Nobody would ever accuse them of being skeptics. I've already said I am not a skeptic, I just want to establish what's actually happening and why. I don't doubt that there is a significant human warming signal. I do doubt that we fully understand how it takes place, but I do think it is largely understood, just a matter of ironing out some details. I don't think anybody (here at least) is arguing that urban heat islands are being confused with AGW. The argument is more subtle. Maybe AGW has an escaped urban heat component, when the heat islands dissipate heat during windy weather, it enters the larger atmosphere. That however does not make it different from human-caused, it's more of a question of exactly how humans are causing the AGW signal. It might not lead to any different conclusions about mitigation.

Thanks, maybe a repeat of the 1893-94 peak which was a bit stronger than either 1883 or 1905(-07) within that particular downturn. By the way, if you can edit your post, "Universal Time" should be Year, no?

Note also, if that cycle has a solar variation connection, the solar cycles were longer from 1870 to 1905 than during the stronger regular cycles of the 20th century, and you'll note that 1876 (year 8), 1887 (year 8), 1899 (year 9) are all warm peaks rather than year 10 in those first three periods. Using them would create an average a little over 24.0 C and would yield an overall cycle of 11.2 years which might begin to manifest again if we get a few consecutive weak solar cycles separated by 12-13 years (like 1870, 1883, 1893, 1905, 1917). Solar maxima since 1917 have been 1928, 1937, 1947, 1957, 1968, 1979, 1989, 2001, a double weak peak 2012-15, and the current developing peak expected to hit maximum in 2024-25. The pattern of solar activity has been generally following a trend of 5-8 regular strong cycles about ten years apart, separated by 2-4 weaker cycles 12-14 years apart. The Maunder minimum was a longer and more profound lack of activity, otherwise, according to Schove's index based on auroral reports before the observational age began around 1610, the Sun has been behaving in those irregular two-phase modes. Stronger cycles occurred 1718-1787 and 1838-1870. The interval between those is known as the Dalton minimum. Other strong pulses of solar activity are believed to have occurred in the 14th and 16th centuries. Much of the 15th century generated weaker activity and is known as the Sporer minimum. The shallower minimum including the 1883, 1893 and 1905 peaks does not have a widely accepted name, perhaps it could be called the Edison minimum or the Curie minimum. It was in fact almost identical to the Dalton (peaks 1801, 1816, 1829) if perhaps 10 to 20 per cent more active. This current downturn is often called the Gleissberg minimum and so far is keeping pace with the Dalton and "Edison/Curie" episodes. It has not turned out to be Maunder 2.0 as some had predicted or speculated. It is a bit stronger than the Sporer minimum also. Now, it's quite possible this 11-year temperature cycle has no connection to solar activity at all. I do not have ready theories as to what else could cause it (and note, it is not my claimed discovery either, it has been widely discussed here for years). If it is a multiple of a shorter cycle (for example, 5 x 2.2 yr, 4 x 2.75 yr, 3 x 3.67 y or 2 x 5.5 years) then its other peaks would avoid summer months when they hit. That might be one avenue of investigation.

I promised to post some material about natural variability in the atmosphere. First, a disclaimer, I would not call myself an AGW skeptic nor am I in the forefront of AGW research. My belief is that temperatures are trending upwards and a portion of that increase is due to AGW, another portion due to natural variability. I believe that the components are approximately equal. I am aware that the IPCC holds a different view, namely that all of the recent increases are due to AGW and without a developed human civilization we would now be in a slightly cooling natural climate. In any case, my interest is more along the lines of trying to establish what natural variability can be expected and then to try to separate out an AGW signal from those conclusions. I don't perceive that AGW proponents or researchers discount the existence of natural variability, but they may assume it is a series of ups and downs against that supposedly slightly cooling natural climate regime. Before we could have any hope of a decision about who would be right or wrong about relative size of AGW and natural warming (if any), we would need to know with some assurance what natural variations should be occurring and then compare that with actual trends. The difference would presumably be the actual AGW signal. Nor do I discount the possibility that a natural cooling signal could begin to occur at any time given that we are now two cycles into a lower energy solar variability regime. _______ _______ The first natural cycle I will examine is the often mentioned 11-year cycle of summer heat which proponents point out tends to peak in years that are multiples of 1900+11n (1900, 1911, 1922, 1933 etc). What is the truth of this assertion, and if any truth, what might be a potential cause of it? First of all, to present a raw data measurement of this cycle, I have turned to my data base discussed in another thread here on the climate change forum, the Toronto and NYC historical data series and analysis. From that, I have extracted mean summer temperatures (June to August) for NYC. My data is converted to Celsius. This is the data table for summers in the NYC record (1869 to 2022). I show the average values of all eleven years in the cycle. Since 1869 is two years after 1867, a back-extension year of the cycle, this table places the multiples of 11 summers in column ten out of eleven. TABLE: MEAN SUMMER TEMPERATURE FOR NYC ARRANGED FOR ANALYSIS OF 11-YEAR CYCLE 1869 to 2022 Cycle ______________________________________________________________________________________________ (1900+11n) ________ begins ______ Year 1 __ Year 2 __ Year 3 __ Year 4 __ Year 5 __ Year 6 __ Year 7 __ Year 8 __ Year 9 __ Year 10 __ Year 11 __ 1869 _____ 21.83 ___ 23.85 ___ 21.87 ___ 23.76 ___ 22.54 ___ 21.91 ___ 22.24 ___ 24.46 ___ 23.07 ___ 22.90 ___ 22.44 __ 1880 _____ 23.09 ___ 21.61 ____23.15 ___ 22.76 ___ 22.39 ___ 23.31 ___ 21.67 ___ 22.56 ___ 21.89 ____ 21.91 ___ 22.20 __ 1891 _____ 22.83 ___ 23.46 ___ 22.08 ___ 22.22 ___ 23.17 ___ 23.46 ___ 22.33 ___23.45 ___ 23.98 ___ 23.54 ___ 23.57 __ 1902 _____ 21.39 ___ 20.72 ___ 22.56 ___ 23.21 ___ 24.41 ___ 22.85 ___ 24.56 ___ 22.56 ___ 22.57 ___ 23.00 ___ 22.43 __ 1913 _____ 22.96 ___ 22.15 ___ 21.76 ___ 22.20 ___ 23.41 ___ 22.76 ___ 22.42 ___ 22.46 ___ 22.98 ___ 22.57 ___ 22.93 __ 1924 _____ 22.26 ___ 23.18 ___ 22.20 ___ 21.07 ___ 22.72 ___ 23.05 ___ 23.61 ___ 23.59 ___ 23.57 ___ 23.53 ___ 23.61 __ 1935 _____ 23.33 ___ 23.22 ___ 23.89 ___ 23.91 ___ 24.39 ___ 22.59 ___ 23.28 ___ 23.13 ___ 24.63 ___ 24.72 ___ 22.76 __ 1946 _____ 22.22 ___ 22.94 ___ 23.30 ___ 24.92 ___ 22.67 ___ 23.17 ___ 24.59 ___ 24.29 ___ 23.17 ___ 24.43 ___ 22.68 __ 1957 _____ 24.00 ___ 22.69 ___ 23.89 ___ 23.20 ___ 24.22 ___ 22.76 ___ 22.85 ___ 22.94 ___ 22.52 ___ 25.18 ___ 23.34 __ 1968 _____ 23.52 ___ 23.94 ___ 24.00 ___ 24.42 ___ 23.09 ___ 24.52 ___ 23.45 ___ 23.09 ___ 23.39 ___ 23.87 ___ 23.28 __ 1979 _____ 23.50 ___ 24.80 ___ 24.35 ___ 22.91 ___ 24.93 ___ 24.05 ___ 23.00 ___ 23.09 ___ 23.89 ___ 24.80 ___ 23.15 __ 1990 _____ 23.74 ___ 24.61 ___ 22.50 ___ 24.94 ___ 24.55 ____ 24.74 ___ 22.83 ___ 22.96 ___ 23.41 ___ 24.83 ___ 22.28 __ 2001 _____ 23.85 ___ 24.43 ___ 23.11 ___ 22.94 ___ 25.04 ____ 23.83 ___ 23.04 ___ 24.11 ___ 22.20 ___ 25.44 ___ 24.41 __ 2012 _____ 24.17 ___ 24.28 ___ 23.54 ___ 24.63 ___ 24.85 ____ 23.48 ___ 24.33 ___ 24.22 ___ 24.93 ___ 24.41 ___ 24.85 __ 2023 _____ ___ avg _____ 23.05 ___ 23.28 ___ 23.01 ___ 23.36 ___ 23.74 ___ 23.32 ___ 23.16 ___ 23.35 ___ 23.30 ___ 23.94 ___ 23.16 ANALYSIS: There is definitely a peak in this cycle as postulated, in year 10. The peak is around 1 F deg or 0.6 C deg above the run of data in the rest of the cycle. A sub-peak almost as warm occurs in year five, so a pulse of 5,6,5,6 years run hotter (in summer). It should be noted that proponents of this cycle have not claimed that it extends back before 1900 and the data show that to be the case, 1878 and 1889 are not particularly warm summers. 1900, 1911, 1944, 1955, 1966, 1977, 1988, 1999 and 2010 are more impressive members than 1922 or 1933 (which is warm but similar to all summers 1931-36). In the last opportunity, 2021 was a bit cooler than 2020 or 2022. The year five sub-peak has occurred in 1873, 1884, 1895, 1906, 1917, 1928, 1939, 1950, 1961, 1972, 1983, 1994, 2005 and 2016. This sub-peak only becomes noticeable after 1983, before that it did not stand out from the rest of the data at all. As to what might be causing this 11-year summer temperature peak, it does approximate the pulse of quiet sun years between sunspot cycles, although more precisely it falls during the rapid increase phase at the early opening stages of sunspot cycles from 1944 onward. That may be its actual cause, but solar irradiance peaks at the peak of sunspot cycles. Perhaps the slightly less radiant heat source at quiet to increasing Sun has the tendency of inducing a trough over central North America which would put NYC into a southwest flow. Your thoughts? It could be postulated that this is nothing more than a statistical fluke, something that will not persist into the future (just as it apparently had little vitality in the cooler 19th century). Future peaks would be expected in 2027 (yr 6) and 2032 (yr 10), then 2038, 2043 etc. We'll have to track this into those future decades, or perhaps you will do that as I am 74 now. Note there is nothing in this data set to suggest an alternative to AGW, the trends are rising for all columns and this appears to be a natural cycle superimposed on the human-induced or possibly partly-otherwise-generated recent increases. I will analyze a longer set of CET data to find out if any 11-year variations are evident there. From a brief inspection I don't think the peaks would be at the same two points in the cycle (if any exist at all). C to F conversions 22.0 C is 71.6 F, 23.0 C is 73.4 F. 24.0 C is 75.2 F, 25.0 C is 77.0 F 22.5 C is 72.5F, 23.5 C is 74.3 F, 24.5 C is 76.1 F, 25.5 C is 77.9 F 0.10 C is 0.18 F in terms of differentials.

Complete list of 3" daily rainfalls in July at NYC, and also 3.00" two-day totals. (the 3.0" list does not include any slightly lower values that might occur using a day on the other side of a heavy rainfall) Notice that many of the entries are towards the end of July. Note the 3.0" daily list continues with a few near-3.0" values to balance the entries. RANK ____ Amount __ Date ______________ 2d amount __ Dates _ 01 ______ 3.75" _____ 23, 1997 ___________ 4.62" _____ 23-24 1997 (3.75" + 0.87") _ 02 ______ 3.56" _____30, 1960*___________ 4.37" _____ 26-27 2000 (3.24" + 1.13") _ 03 ______ 3.47" _____29, 1980* __________t3 4.33" ____ 8-9 2021^ _ 04 ______ 3.24" _____26, 2000 __________ t3 4.33" ____ 5-6 1901 (3.07" + 1.26") _ 05 ______ 3.16" ______13, 1972*__________ 3.64" _______ 29-30 1971 (0.64" +3.00") _ 5.87" 4d total July 29 - Aug 1 _t06 ______ 3.13" ______ 7, 1984 ___________ 6 3.56" _____ 30 1960 (29, 31 dry) _t06 ______ 3.13" _____ 17, 1995 ___________ 7 3.36" _____ 17-18 1995 (3.13" + 0.23") _ 08 ______ 3.11" ______28, 1913 ___________ 3.30" _______ 10-11 2020 (2.54" + 0.76") _ 09 ______ 3.07" ______ 5, 1901 ___________ 3.19" ________ 3-4 1967 (2.08" + 1.11") _ 10 ______ 3.06" _____ 28, 1902*__________ t10 3.14" _____ 6-7 1984 (0.01" + 3.13") _ 11 ______ 3.00" _____ 30, 1971 ___________ t10 3.14" ____ 28-29 1913 (3.11" + 0.03") _t12 ______ 2.91" ______ 17, 1877**_________12 3.12" _______13-14 1897 (2.29" + 0.83") _t12 ______ 2.91" _____ 29, 1872*__________ 13 3.09" ______ 11-12 1937 (0.41" + 2.68") _ 14 ______ 2.80" ______ 3, 1930* _________ 3.06" _________ 28 1902 (27, 29 dry) _ 15 ______ 2.65" _____ 27, 1889** ________ 3.00" _________ 30-31 1918 (2.00" + 1.00") ______________ also including dates in July and August 3.99" 31st-1st 1889 (2.29" + 1.70"), and 3.71" June 30 - July 1 1984 (3.07" + 0.64") _________________ would rank 6 and 7 if included, and expand total list to 17 entries plus next 3 below for top 20. ______________ missing out by 0.01" was 22-23 1946 (2.99" from 0.87" + 2.12") and 20-21 1988 (2.99" from 1.28" + 1.71") also 2.91" 3-4 1978 (1.72"+1.19") ________________________________________ * No measurable rainfall on days before and after these entries, meaning they have the same representation in 3.0" list, or no representation if below 3.0" like 29th, 1872; ** Others have measurable amounts on one or both sides of a heavy amount, only the larger of the two totals is shown for 2d amounts (would have included any nearly equal but there were none). 17th 1877 added only 0.01" so does not make the second list. ^ Total from 2.27" and 2.06" both daily records. (8-9 July 2021)

Today's record rainfall at NYC is only 1.50" (1871). 1926 had 1.38". Tomorrow's record is 3.13" from 1995 two days after a two-day hot spell (96 14th, 102 15th). To show how variable regional rainfall can be, I noticed that LGA had 3.53" on July 15th 1997 for a daily record but NYC had only 0.17" on that date (max 97, min 77 also). But NYC did record a daily record 3.75" on July 23, 1997.

Another weather event to add to the historial weather file, on this night in 1995, after a day of record heat, a derecho suddenly formed over south central Ontario. At 0100h EDT (July 15) there was nothing on the map but a dry windshift line near southeast Georgian Bay to west of Toronto. By 0200h storms had formed along that boundary and by 0300h a full-blown derecho with embedded F2 tornado was bearing down on my former home location of Lakefield, Ontario which is northeast of Peterborough. It was so hot that I had not fallen asleep and became aware of continuous lightning west of the town at 0250h. By 0300h a severe gust front had blown in with what appeared to be 80 mph gusts, large trees were bending precariously and the continual lightning and thunder was unlike any previous severe storm in my experience. It took abut half an hur for this to blow through and I believe the derecho persisted through the night and following day into eastern Ontario, southern Quebec and upstate NY and New England. The next day we became aware of tornado damage in a streak that ended about 3 miles southwest of my location, and that tornado did considerable damage around Stony Lake north of Peterborough. Family members who were camping 100 miles north of us said they had also had a severe storm at 0300h and had abandoned a tent for the relative safety of a car, so it was quite the line squall and as far as I could determine, entirely unpredicted and not well shown on existing guidance (it was thought that the hot, dry spell would continue without the minor detail of the worst severe storm to hit Ontario since the May 31 1985 F4 tornado in Barrie. That one also continued on to near Peterborough and also lifted off the ground 3 miles from my residence (which was then in Peterborough. Not often you see continuous lightning, it's quite the thing. We were very lucky our house was not blown apart by that storm. (added trivia, calendar same for 1995 and 2023, as any 28 years without a missing leap year like 1900 will work out to same calendar dates, so the storm was on a Friday night.)

First report on anomalies and projections ... ______________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA (11) ____ (10d anom) ________ +1.3 _ +2.6 _ -0.9 ___ 0.0 _ +1.4 _ +1.3 ____ -5.2 _ +4.6 _ +2.7 (21) ____ (20d anom) _______ +0.9 _ +1.9 _ +1.6 __ -0.7 _ +1.9 _ +3.1 _____ -2.5 _ +6.7 _ +2.6 (11) ____ (p27 anom) ________ +1.0 _ +2.0 _ -0.5 __ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.5 _____ 0.0 _ +3.0 _ +2.5 (21) ____ (p31 anom) ________ +1.0 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 ___ 0.0 _ +2.0 _ +3.0 _____ 0.0 _ +4.0 _ +2.5 (31) ____ (final anom) _______ +0.6 _ +1.5 _ +1.3 __ +0.3 _ +2.2 _ +2.7 ____ -1.2 _ +7.2 _ +1.4 (11) _ Projections are based on assumed near average to +1.0 trends in east, and +2.0 to +3.0 in west. DEN will probably edge up all of July after a cool start. Not sure if it can get to 0.0 but some more anomalous warm conditions are indicated. (21) _ Projections are now based on a regime of +1.0 east to +4.0 west, little change for most locations but a continued drift upwards for DEN. Preliminary scores based on these estimates will be posted later today. (29) _ Phoenix remains +7.2 so that will probably need to be scored from max 60. DEN is creeping ever upwards, may make it to -1.0. SEA will finish closer to +2.0. (31) _ All final anomalies now posted (1st 1030z) and scoring is now based on final values as shown. Confirmed anomalies are underlined. Updated seasonal max to date (7/31) _ 97 _ 93 _ 91 ___ 93 __ 98 __ 103 _____ 98 __ 119 __ 91 (future updates of seasonal max will migrate to August contest thread)

1936 has shown up the past two days in the historical info from Sacrus (always enjoy reading it) ... but before the 9th the heat had already set in further west and I don't think it was noted that a location in ND hit 122F or 50C, probably the highest temperature recorded outside of desert areas in the US. We had 120 to 121 F at Lytton BC in the 2021 heat dome (and that was before the town ignited and burned to the ground). Also not in the reports, Toronto had three consecutive days (8th-10th) with 105F, breaking the all-time record of 103F set on July 3rd, 1911 there. Those remain the four warmest days of record at Toronto, one day (Aug 13, 1918) has hit 102F and two have reached 101F (Aug 7, 1918 and Aug 25, 1948). Since 100F on Sep 2, 1953 the only 100F reading at Toronto's downtown location was 101F in July 2011. It was 99F in July 1988. The upper air charts for July 1936 must have been spectacular, I would imagine a 602 or 603 high over Missouri to North Carolina at the height of the heat wave (it backed off a bit after July 13th although the severe heat continued over much of the central plains region all month). The heat returned briefly around August 3rd to 5th but in general the second half of July in the eastern states was cooler and quite dry as the upper ridge must have retrogressed somewhat allowing high pressure to build down from Quebec.

Top hot fourth of July maxima at NYC: 102 _ 1949 99 _ 1919 98 _ 1966 97 _ 1911, 1955 96 _ 1898, 1999, 2002, 2010 (today's top values were 103 1966, 100 in 1898 and 1911, 99 in 1949, 97 in 1919 and 95 in 1955, 2002. Record high minimum for 4th is 81F in 2002, breaking 79F from 1999. Before that the record was 78F tied by 1876, 1908, 1974 and 1983. 1966 had 77F.

Table of forecasts for July 2023 ______________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA RJay _________________________ +1.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 ___+2.0 _ +1.5 _ +2.5 ___ +2.5 _ +2.5 _ +1.5 DonSutherland1 _____________ +1.3 _ +1.2 _ +1.7 ___+0.6 _ +1.0 _ +1.2 ____ -0.8 _ +1.0 _ +2.5 wxallannj _____________________+1.0 _ +1.2 _ +1.4 ___+1.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.7 ____ -1.2 _ +1.2 _ +0.6 Scotty Lightning _____________ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 ___+0.5 _ +1.0 _ +1.5 ___ +0.5 _ +1.0 __ 0.0 BKViking _____________________ +1.0 _ +0.9 _ +0.9 ___+1.1 _ +0.9 _ +2.0 ___ +2.2 _ +2.2 _ +1.4 ___ Consensus _______________ +0.9 _ +0.9 _ +0.7 ___+0.7 _ +0.9 _ +1.6 ___ +1.0 _ +1.1 _ +1.0 Tom __________________________ +0.7 _ +0.9 _ +0.5 ___+1.1 _ +0.6 _ +1.2 ___ +1.1 _ +0.3 _ +0.6 hudsonvalley21 ______________ +0.5 _ +0.8 _ +1.1 ___ +0.7 _ +0.9 _ +1.0 ___ +0.8 _ +0.7 _ +1.2 Roger Smith __________________+0.3 _ +0.3 _ +0.1 ___+0.4 _ -0.7 _ +1.5 ___ +1.5 _ +1.0 __ 0.0 ___ Normal _____________________0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 RodneyS _____________________ -0.4 _ +0.3 _ +0.1 ___ -1.3 _ -0.2 _ +2.0 ___ +1.2 _ +1.5 _ +1.3 wxdude64 ____________________-0.7 _ -0.2 _ -0.2 ___ +0.2 _ +0.7 _ +1.8 ___ -1.4 _ +1.9 _ +0.4 - - - - - ___ Persistence (June 2023) __-2.2 _-2.0 _ -2.1 ____ +0.2 _ -1.3 _ +2.1 ___ -4.0 _ -2.0 __ 0.0 ____________________________ warmest and coldest forecasts color coded, Normal is colder than all forecasts for IAH, equal for SEA.

I believe May-June total rainfall at NYC (2.90") was third lowest in 155 tries, behind 1880 (1.76") and 1965 (2.85"). (I realize regional amounts are quite variable) Next few dry May-June couplets were in 1993 (3.05"), 1885 (3.18"), 1964 (3.24"), 1899 (3.35"), 2020 (3.41"), 1949 (3.43" with only 0.02" June, driest month on record), 1986 (3.54") 1877 (3.75"), 1891 (3.93") and 1875 (4.05"). The wettest May-June was 1989 with 19.03", 2013 had 18.10" and 1972 had 17.69" in those two months.

=== === <<<< ---- ANNUAL SCORING for JAN-JUN 2023 ---- >>>> === === Best scores for the nine locations are shown with red highlight, best totals for regions in bold. Scoring now closer with Don moving into lead, RJay falls back to second, wxallannj and hudsonvalley21 exchange 3rd and 4th with RodneyS moving ahead of wxdude64 into fifth. FORECASTER ______________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent ___ c/e___ DEN_ PHX_ SEA __ west __ TOTALS DonSutherland1 ___________ 346 _314 _ 356 __1016 __410 _434 _398 __1242 __2258 __359 _386_442 __1187 ____3445 RJay _______________________348 _344 _ 335 __1027 __459 _368 _380__ 1207 __2234 __315 _355 _443 __1113 ____3347 wxallannj __________________ 333 _346 _359 __1038__469 _402 _340__1211 __ 2249 __329 _388 _330 __1047 ____3296 ___ Consensus _____________309 _318 _ 367 __994 __ 423 _348 _377 __1148 __2142 _ 325 _370 _430 __1125 ____3267 hudsonvalley21 ____________313 _322 _ 381 __1016 __ 434 _351 _371 __ 1156 __2172 __292 _338 _437 __1067 ____3239 RodneyS __________________ 316 _314 _346 __ 976 __ 281 _343 _392 __1016 __1992 _ 395 _ 386 _426 __1207____ 3199 wxdude64 _________________324 _321 _324 __ 969 __ 319 _384 _322 __1025 __1994 __395 _332 _406 __1133 ____3127 BKViking ___________________318 _314 _351 __ 983 __393 _340 _375 __1108 __ 2091 __291 _ 276 _ 312 __ 879 ____2970 Scotty Lightning ___________249 _276 _328 __ 853 __373 _279 _358 __1010 __1863 __266 _264 _344 __ 874 ____2737 Roger Smith _______________ 268 _236 _264 __ 768 __285 _253 _346 __ 884 __1652 __275 _302 _430 __1007____2659 ... pro-rated scores are added in brackets for all below this point in the table ... Tom (5/6) __________________259 _266 _289 __ 814 __262 _294 _350 __ 906 __1720 __288 _300 _345 __ 933 _____2653 (3184) ___ Normal _________________204 _236 _268 __ 708 __316 _302 _300 __ 918 __1626 __298 _ 310 _344 __952 ____ 2578 Rhino16 (4/6) ______________212 _228 _250 ___ 690 ___310 _288 _216 ___814 __1504 __209 _212 _288 __ 709 ____ 2213 (3320) Stormchaser Chuck (3/6) __201 _238 _196 ___ 635 ___257 _132 _146 ___535 __ 1170 __238 _240 _238 __ 716 ____1886 (3772) so_whats_happening (3/6) _124 _126 _ 180 ___ 430 __ 169 _105 _180 ___ 454 ___884 __122 __168 _218 __ 508 ____1392 (2784) Terpeast (1/6) ______________ 62 _ 44 _ 34 ____ 140 ___84 _ 86 _ 26 ____ 196 ___ 336 __ 10 __ 76 __ 60 __ 146 ____ 482 (2892) rainsucks (1/6) _____________ 42 __32 _ 36 ____ 110 ___ 00 _ 66 _ 48 ____ 114 ___ 224 __ 50 __ 98 __ 84 __ 232 ____ 456 (2736) Persistence ________________243 _224 _316 __ 783 ___ 280 _ 311 _ 334 __ 925 ___ 1708 __ 148 _ 344 _ 298 __ 790 ____ 2498 _______________________________________________________ Best Forecasts * shared with one other forecaster for one month (does not apply to Consensus or Normal, if they qualify, so does the high forecaster score whether tied or not) FORECASTER ____________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent_ c/e__ DEN_PHX_SEA__west __ Months DonSutherland1 ___________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 2*____2*____0____ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 2*___1 ____2 _ Jan,Mar RJay _______________________ 1 ____ 2 ____ 1 ____2 ____ 1*___2**____2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1* ___ 1 ___0 ____0 wxallannj __________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____2**___1 ____0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1* _ May (t) ___ Consensus ____________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 1 __ May hudsonvalley21 ____________0 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0^____0 ____1* ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 1* _ May (t) RodneyS __________________2*____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 2 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 2 ___ 1* ___ 3 ____1 _ Jun wxdude64 _________________0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____1 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 _ Apr BKViking __________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1*____ 0 ____0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1* ___0 ___ 0 ____0 Scotty Lightning ___________1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1* ___1 ___ 0 ____0 Roger Smith _______________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1*____0 ____1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____0 Tom (5/6) _________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____2*___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0 ___ Normal _________________0 ____ 2 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 Rhino16 (4/6) ______________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0 Stormchaser Chuck (3/6) __2 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1 ____ 2 ____ 1* ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____1 _ Feb so_whats_happening (3/6) _0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0 Terpeast (1/6) _____________ 1*____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0 rainsucks (1/6) ____________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ___ 0 ____0 (hudsonvalley21 has a tied top score for ORD (Mar) before 1 pt reduced by penalty). Shown as 0^ ----------------------------------------- EXTREME FORECAST SUMMARY So far, 47 of 54 forecasts qualify, 26 of them for warmest, and 21 for coldest ... Jan 6-2, Feb 5-3, Mar 6-3, Apr 5-3, May 3-2, June 1-8 ... 11 of 47 involve a loss where a second ranked forecast has high score. Two of those ten are a shared loss. FORECASTER _______ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _Apr _May _ Jun ___ TOTALS _ (adjusted for ties) RJay _________________ 5-0 _ 2-1 _ 2-0 _ 1*-0_ 0-0 _ 1-0 __ 11-1 ______10.5 - 1.0 StormchaserChuck __ -- --_ 5-1 _ -- --_ 2-2 _ 2-0 _ --- __ 9-3 ______ 8.5 - 3.0 RodneyS _____________1-0 _ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 1-0 __ 1-0 _ 4*-1 __ 9-1 ______ 8.5 - 0 DonSutherland ______ 2-0 _ 1-0 _ 3*-1 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 __ 8-1 ______ 7.5 - 1.0 Scotty Lightning _____ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 3-1 _ 0-1* _ 0-0 _ 1-0 __4-2 ______ 4.0 - 1.5 ___ Normal ___________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-1 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 3-0 __ 4-1 _______ 4.0 - 1.0 Roger Smith _________ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0 _ 1-1*_ 0-0 __ 3-1 ______ 2.5 - 0.5 hudsonvalley21 ______ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0 _1-0 _ 1*-0 _ 0-0__ 3-0 ______ 2.0 - 0 wxallannj ____________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-1* 0-1* _ 2*-0__3-2 ______ 2.0 - 1.0 Tom __________________0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 1*-0_ 0-0 __ 2-0 ______ 1.5 - 0 wxdude64 ___________1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 0-0 ___1-0 _______ 1.0 - 0 rainsucks _____________ -- --_-- --_-- --_1*-0 _ -- - _ ---- __ 1-0 ______ 0.5 - 0 BKViking _____________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0 __ 1-0 ______ 0.5 - 0 Terpeast _____________ -- --_-- --_-- --_ -- --_ -- - _ 1*-0 __ 1-0 ______ 0.5 - 0 so_whats_happening _0-0 _0-1 _ -- --_ -- -- _ -- - _ 0-0 __ 0-1 _______ 0.0 - 1 ===========================================

+0.3 _ +0.3 _ +0.1 _ +0.4 _ -0.7 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.0 __ 0.0

One thing to add to the historical summary, in 2021 the Pac NW and BC heat dome was at its worst on June 30, highs in southern BC and much of WA state, parts of OR and ID around 110 to 120 F. Where I live, it was 112 F which is crazy hot considering we are several thousand feet higher than places in TX and a lot further north, and matching their current heat records. The worst part of the heat dome was June 26 to July 3, 2021. We then had smoke episodes one of which was worse than what you're suffering from, by early August of 2021.

Coldest months of the 21st century compared to all-time (1869-2023) NYC data with ranks (list includes all below long-term median which is now 78th coldest or ties straddling 78th coldest-warmest in 155 years or 77th warmest-coldest July to Dec): Jan 2004 t8 coldest, 2003 25th coldest, 2009 28th, 2014 t34, 2015 t49, 2022 t53, 2000,2005 t66, 2018 71st coldest. Feb 2015 3rd coldest, 2007 22nd coldest, 2003 41st, 2014 t57. 2010 77th coldest. Mar 2014 t43 coldest, 2015 48th coldest, 2017 t55, 2005 59th, 2001 60th, 2013,2018 t68 coldest. Apr 2018 t45 coldest, 2003 t52, 2007 t60, 2020 t63, (2000 t75 median value, see note for July) May 2003 t12 coldest, 2005 t18, 2008 t40, 2020 t49. 2002 t52, 2017 t63 coldest. June 2009 t9 coldest, 2003 19th, at 69.8 June 2023 would be t38, 2006,2012 t73, 2015 t77 (median) July 2009 8th coldest (2000 was t4th coldest but some would say 2000 is in the 20th century) 2001 t13, 2004 t32, 2007 t45, 2003 t60. 2021 t70, 2014 t72 coldest. Aug 2008 t55 coldest (2000 was t28th coldest, see above) 2007,2016 t58, 2004 t64, 2014 t73 coldest. Sep 2006 t37 coldest (2000 was t29th coldest, see above) 2001 73rd coldest, 2003,2013 t75 coldest. Oct 2009 t34 coldest; 2003, 2008 t36 coldest; 2002 t40 coldest, (2004 t52, 2006 t57, 2022 69th, 2000 70th, 2011 t71st coldest. Nov 2012, 2019 t31 coldest, 2018 t41st coldest, 2000,2013,2014 t59, 2007 t63, 2008 t74, 2002 t76 coldest (median) Dec 2010 t35 coldest, 2017 t38 coldest, 2005 64th coldest, 2009 t72nd coldest, 2002 76th coldest (2000 t22 coldest, see note for July). ________________________ Probably the median value of 21st century months is around 50th warmest in the 155-year series, but even so, a healthy number of months have fallen below the overall median (now ranked 78th). On average 5 to 8 months out of 23 or so have been this cold. Note that June 2023 will likely be third coldest of the century but at t38 is around the start of the coldest quarter (or the colder half of the cold months). With urban heat island factored in, this was probably about the 28th coldest June. Several months including March, April, August, September, October and December have not had a significantly colder month than this June in relative terms to overall distribution.