Roger Smith

No wonder (North) America is ahead, always go with leading edge technology. These underground computers do nothing but process visual cues for a full year and then without trace of error they proclaim an infallible result. Or so I was told by Wiarton Willie (Canada's leading climate expert) (Wiarton is YVV on Lake huron, Georgian Bay actually). There is also a Shubenacadie Sam but I understand he could not get through the 40" snow drift to give his opinion, but I would say six more weeks of winter could be a sensible interpretation of what he was grunting down there under the snow. (eastern NS has been buried in 30-40 inches of snow recently). I laugh at media coverage out west, we also have not only groundhogs but marmots looking for shadows. The news guy says, without any trace of irony, "In the east, P-Phil (or Wiarton Willie etc) are calling for an early spring, but our local expert, Cascades Curtis (or whoever) disagrees ... and calls for six more weeks of winter. Talk about a grasp of climate, either spring comes early or winter stays on everywhere in N America. ... and they want to be my latex salesmen. Anyway, I know they only show the rodents to annoy their weather person who has to pretend to be interested. Usually the intro is, "the rodent says X but our expert, who is so much smarter than a rodent, says what? Expert? Are you awake?" And they don't really sound very confident about knowing more than a rodent, to be honest.

Could add to historical notes, on Feb 3, 1947 Canada saw its lowest ever recorded temperature of -81 F at Snag located near the Alaska border. That station no longer exists, it was active due to WW-II construction projects and closed many years ago. Watson Lake in southeast Yukon had its lowest ever value of -74 F on Jan 31, 1947, so it was quite a cold week up there (I noted the Alaska records mentioned today and previous days incl -80 F). 1947 is also famous for a very severe winter in Britain and northern Europe, the Baltic Sea was almost totally frozen over (which is quite unusual south of Finland) and in England and Ireland, large snow drifts stopped road and railway travel for days or weeks at a time. It was the coldest February on record (-1.9 C) in the Central England Temperature Series (1659 to present), 1895 was 0.1 C warmer at -1.8 C, but still has the coldest week or 10-day intervals. The coldest January was 1795 (-3.1 C) and the coldest December was 1890 at -0.8 C although 2010 came very close at -0.7 C. Those record low averages sound fairly moderate (they would be close to average for Albany NY) but as experienced in a country in those days without central heating and beside a large body of open water (North Sea), so that strong east to northeast winds can bring a lot of snow and also that sort of weather over there often ends up in the -3 to -1 C range, keeping means up, but if it clears at any point, it can go down below -20 C in rural areas as it did in those years I mentioned. The coldest day on record in Britain was Jan 20, 1838 with a mean of -12 C in the CET. 1962-63 was also a very cold winter in Britain and Ireland, with locally heavy snowfalls. There were days in Jan 1963 and again in Dec 1981 with averages near -9 C, as cold as it has been since Feb 1895. Odd factoid -- early winter cold is not well correlated on either side of Atlantic, but late winter cold is very well correlated. I guess it has to do with Greenland blocking highs being more likely to produce a cold Feb or March.

Table of forecasts for February 2024 __FORECASTER __________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA rainsucks ________________________ +4.0 _ +4.3 _+4.5 __ +6.5 __ 0.0 _ +1.9 __ +1.6 _ -0.5 _ +0.8 RJay _____ (-10%) ________________ +2.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.0 __ +3.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ +3.0 __0.0 _ +2.0 wxallannj ________________________ +1.5 _ +2.0 _ +2.2 __ +2.8 _ +0.8 _ +1.6 __ +2.0 _ +1.5 _ +0.5 hudsonvalley21 __________________ +1.5 _ +1.2 _ +1.4 __ +1.4 _ +0.3 _ +2.1 ___ +1.6 _ +1.1 _ -0.4 DonSutherland1 _________________ +1.4 _ +1.6 _ +1.5 __ +4.5 _ -0.1 _ +0.6 ___ +3.0 __ 0.0 _ +3.0 so_whats_happening ____________ +1.4 _ +1.5 _ +1.8 __ +5.0 _ -0.5 _ -1.0 ___ +1.9 _ -1.3 _ +2.0 BKViking _________________________+1.2 _ +1.2 _ +1.0 __ +0.9 _ +0.4 _ +1.0 ___ +2.3 _ +1.6 _ +1.2 ___ Consensus __________________+1.1 _ +1.2 _ +1.1 __ +2.1 __ 0.0 _ +0.3 ___+1.6 _ +0.3 _+1.0 Scotty Lightning _________________ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 ___ 0.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.5 ___ +1.0 _ +1.5 __ 0.0 Tom ______________________________+0.6 _ +0.8 _ +1.1 ___ +1.2 _ -0.6 _ -0.3 ___ +0.7 _ +0.6 _ +1.1 RodneyS ________________________ +0.3 _ +1.9 _ +1.0 __ +3.5 __ 0.0 _ +1.8 ___ +0.8 _ -1.3 _ -0.2 Stormchaser Chuck _______________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ +3.0 _ -2.3 _ -1.8 ___ +2.0 _ +1.0 _ +2.5 ___Normal _______________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 wxdude64 ________________________-0.2 _ +0.6 _ +0.4 __ +1.2 _ -0.9 _ -0.3 ___ +0.6 _ -1.1 _ +0.5 Rhino16 ___________________________-1.0 __ -1.5 _ -0.8 __ +0.5 _ -1.2 _ -0.1 ___ +0.1 _ -0.2 _ +0.3 Roger Smith ______________________ -1.5 __ -1.7 __-1.7 ___ -1.3 _ -2.0 _ -1.5 ___ +0.9 _ +1.2 _ +2.0 ___ Persistence __ (Jan 2024) _____+2.3 _ +3.3 _ +3.2 __ +1.1 _ -0.5 _ -3.0 __ -3.5 _ -1.0 _ -1.0 (differential of persistence and consensus is 370 points) ________________________________ warmest and coldest forecasts color coded, Normal is colder than all forecasts for DEN Consensus of 14 forecasts is average of 7th and 8th ranked (not incl Normal).

Temperature anomalies in western regions are a bit misleading, we've seen one super cold spell of about a week and otherwise mostly well above normal. DEN for example averaged +13.5 for last four days but -27 for Jan 11-16. A lot of daily records have been broken in the past week. So we've come to the end of the month with ground conditions (soggy snow at ski resorts) similar to 1998 despite a different anomaly. Now in the past few winters we have seen a few cases of cold anomalies persistent all month. Feb 2019 was a very cold month all along, and winter 2022-23 was generally quite cold.

It was an oddball situation out west, a plurality of days above average but overall averages below, due to exceptional cold for a few days. DEN averaged +13.5 last four days, but was -27 for Jan 11-16.

RJay if you wander in, your inbox is full, you can probably guess my message anyway. TIA.

Scoring for January 2024 FORECASTER ___________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent _ c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west___ TOTAL RodneyS ________________ 50 _ 54 _ 68 __ 172 __ 96 _ 76 _ 50 __ 222 _ 394 __ 92 _100 _ 88 __ 280 ____ 674 so_whats_happening ____82 _ 66 _ 70 __ 218 __ 52 _ 94 _ 60 __ 206 _ 424 __ 54 _ 84 _ 96 __ 234 _____ 658 wxdude64 _______________46 _ 38 _ 52 __ 136 __100_ 96 _ 62 __258 _ 394 __ 56 _ 82 _ 76 __ 214 _____ 608 wxallannj ________________78 _ 62 _ 70 __ 210 ___68 _ 86 _ 16 __ 170 __ 380 __ 60 _ 76 _ 90 __ 226 _____ 606 DonSutherland1 _________76 _ 62 _ 68 __ 206 __ 78 _ 92 _ 44 __ 214 _ 420 __ 36 _ 88 _ 56 __ 180 _____ 600 ___ Consensus __________78 _ 60 _ 68 __ 206 __100_ 94 _ 20 __214 _ 420 __ 22 _ 82 _ 72 __ 176 _____ 596 BKViking ________________ 94 _ 76 _ 84 __ 254 __ 78 _ 74 _ 14 __ 166 _ 420 ___10 _ 60 _ 56 __ 126 _____ 546 hudsonvalley21 _________ 84 _ 58 _ 64 __ 206 __ 86 _ 78 _ 18 __ 182 _ 388 __ 04 _ 40 _ 96 __ 140 _____ 528 Normal __________________ 54 _ 34 _ 36 __ 124 __ 78 _ 90 _ 40 __ 208 _ 332 __ 30 _ 80 _ 80 __ 190 _____ 522 Rhino16 __________________50 _ 22 _ 20 __ 092 __98 _ 98 _ 40 __ 236 _ 328 __ 44 _ 92 _ 56 __ 192 _____ 520 Stormchaser Chuck _____ 56 _ 82 _ 96 __ 234 __ 82 _ 00 _ 00 __ 082 _ 316 __20 _100 _ 80 __ 200 ____ 516 RJay _____________________84 _ 64 _ 66 __ 214 __ 72 _ 70 _ 00 __ 142 _ 356 __ 20 _ 70 _ 60 __ 150 _____ 506 rainsucks ________________92 _ 96 _100__ 288 __42 _ 60 _ 00 __ 102 _ 390 __ 00 _ 50 _ 58 __ 108 _____ 498 Scotty Lightning _________64 _ 24 _ 16 __ 104 __ 58 _ 70 _ 20 __ 148 _ 252 __ 20 _ 60 _ 90 __ 170 _____ 422 Tom _____________________ 38 _ 12 _ 14 __ 064 __ 34 _ 72 _ 38 __ 144 _ 208 __ 26 _ 78 _ 68 __ 172 _____ 380 Roger Smith _____________44 _ 24 _ 32 __ 100 __ 98 _ 90 _ 22 __ 210 _ 310 __ 00 _ 04 _ 00 __ 004 _____ 314 Persistence _____________ 66 _ 56 _ 62 __ 184 __ 00 _ 38 _ 02 __ 040 _ 224 __ 00 _ 00 _ 10 __ 010 _____ 234 ----------------------------------- EXTREmE FORECAST REPORT NYC, BOS __ wins for Rainsucks (2nd highest fcsts) and losses for Stormchaser Chuck (good scores but fcsts a bit too high). IAH __ a win for wxdude64 with coldest forecast DEN __ a win for RodneyS with coldest forecast The other locations did not qualify. DCA went to 3rd highest forecast, and rest were quite close to consensus. --------------------------- (forecasts) FORECASTER ___________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Stormchaser Chuck _____ +4.5 _ +4.2 _+3.4 __ +2.0 _+4.8 _+4.4 __+0.5 _-1.0 _-2.0 rainsucks ________________+2.7 _ +3.1 _ +3.2 __ +4.0 _ +1.5 _+2.0 __+2.5 _+1.5 _+1.1 BKViking ________________ +2.0 _ +2.1 _ +2.4 __ +2.2 _ +0.8 _+1.3 __+1.0 _+1.0 _+1.2 RJay _____________________+1.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 __ +2.5 _ +1.0 _ +2.0 __+0.5 _+0.5_+1.0 hudsonvalley21 _________ +1.5 _ +1.2 _ +1.4 ___+0.4 _ +0.6 _ +1.1 __+1.3 _+2.0 _-0.8 so_whats_happening ____ +1.4 _ +1.6 _ +1.7 __ -1.3 _ -0.8 _ -1.0 __ -1.2 _ -1.8 _ -1.2 wxallannj ________________ +1.2 _ +1.4 _ +1.7 __ -0.5 _ -1.2 _ +1.2 __ -1.5 _ -2.2 _ -1.5 ___ Consensus __________+1.2 _ +1.3 _ +1.6 __ +1.1 _ -0.2 _ +1.0 __ +0.4 _-0.1 _+0.4 DonSutherland1 _________ +1.1 __+1.4 _ +1.6 __ +2.2 _ -0.1 _ -0.2 __ -0.3 _ -0.4 _+1.2 Scotty Lightning _________ +0.5 _-0.5 _ -1.0 __ -1.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 __ +0.5 _ +1.0 _-0.5 Normal ___________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 RodneyS ________________ -0.2 _ +1.0 _ +1.6 __ +1.3 _ -1.7 _ -0.5 ___ -3.1 _ -1.0 _ -1.6 Rhino16 __________________ -0.2 _ -0.6 _ -0.8 __ +1.0 _ -0.4 _ 0.0 ___ -0.7 _ -0.6 _ +1.2 wxdude64 _______________ -0.4 _ +0.2 _ +0.8 __ +1.1 _ -0.7 _ -1.1 ___ -1.3 _ -1.9 _ +0.2 Roger Smith _____________ -0.5 _ -0.5 _ -0.2 __ +1.0 _ -1.0 _ +0.9 __ +3.5 _ +3.8 _ +4.5 Tom _____________________ -0.8 _ -1.1 __ -1.1 ___ -2.2 _ -1.9 _ +0.1 ___ +0.2 _ +0.1 _ +0.6 Persistence _____________ +4.0 _ +5.5 _ +5.1 ___ +8.6 _+2.6 _+1.9 __ +6.2 _+4.7 _+3.5

-1.5 _ -1.7 _ -1.7 __ -1.3 _ -2.0 _ -1.5 __ +0.9 _ +1.2 _ +2.0

Faint signs of a coastal returning to guidance for Feb 5-6, would not declare it dead yet. A good result still lies inside margin of error.

A KU is a kinda unlikely.

Record highs all over BC today, 15 to 18 C widespread. We have lost about 2/3 of our snow pack in the past week due to warm temperatures and rain. It's probably a good sign for your winter hopes, as long as warmth goes north more than east. Pebble Beach golf this weekend faces prospects of local hail showers, could be an interesting watch for weather rather than golf. On the other hand it was record warm in BC around this date in 1998 too.

The ultimate low bar for sunshine hours was January 1953 on what used to be called the Queen Charlotte Islands west of BC (nowadays it's haida gwaii) ... zero sunshine. So it can happen (without polar night). It is also very cloudy out west recently, we got a few minutes of sun yesterday, first time in weeks. I blame Pacific Ocean (cause of all our problems).

DON ... Re Twitter (X) I am also not a frequent poster, I created an account to be able to read or follow, not to post my own material, I don't think I have posted more than half a dozen of my own in ten years, so you're basically following a void as far as seeing any interesting material from me. I will follow your feed especially if there are to be consequences for outrageous tweets, I love me some consequences. A warning, I am a bit of a libertarian conservative but I agree with you on climate and coffee anyway. The other stuff is not as important. I sort of dedicated my life to studying natural variability of climate not paying much attention (in late 1970s) to global cooling and perhaps at first being a bit skeptical about global warming (having just come out of global cooling) but for quite a while now my basic position has been, let's unravel AGW and natural variability, except recently I am starting to wonder if AGW is just overwhelming all forms of natural variability and creating one bland uber-climate that has only two or three variations. Out west here we still get lots of cold and below normal temps (as you know) or if not that, heat waves. I don't think we're going to fix this climate and we're probably going to have to adapt to it, my hope is that a natural cold signal will fight back and we'll be glad to have the extra greenhouse gas at some point, but will that be 2080 or 5080 or 25080 AD? (By 25080 I doubt that anyone will know what AD refers to, possibly a new count will begin, and also even by 5080 most of the excess will be gone -- we never know what technology could develop in our future and perhaps carbon sequestration will work, so far it is very much in its infant stages). What is the new verb for tweet, as in "I tweeted ..." is it "I exed ..." or just "I did the musk." Perhaps Donald Trump will buy X from Elon and call it "Trumpet Voluntary" so when you tweet (or X) you can trump. I think perhaps you trumped that guy with his snowfall map anyway (unless it is 1888).

If ever there was an occasion for a northward shift ...

Euro a bit more progressive at 00z and no storm near coast days 9-10 but cold signal remains, possibly just a jog in road to eventual snowfall event? 10-day Gem does bring in a potential snowfall of possibly 5-8" from an inland source rather than a coastal track. GFS so far not very promising. Lots of time for general improvements. Fingers crossed.

Don, I posted (as PeterOD) on your X file, "did not know they had X in 1888." But that map could actually bust in the other direction where it shows zero snow in NC and s.e. VA. Well, the DCA new record of 80 or 81 would of course have to park over top of the second highest temp of record in Jan (79 on same date in 1950) instead of blowing away some useless nondescript record. I hate when that happens. And it does happen ... ... So I took a look in my NYC files, this is the "top 15" of snubbed records that deserve a spot: __ Robbed of a Record Top 15 __ Rank __ Days (/20) __ Details t1. ___ (17.5/20) ___ July 21, 1930, 1980 t1991 broken or denied by 1977 (104F) t1. ___ (17.5/20) ___ Nov 15, 1973 (77F) broken by 1993 (80F) 3. ___ (16.5/20) __ Dec 4 1982 (72) lost record to 74F in 1998. 4. ___ (15.5/20) ___ Sep 21, 1914 (94) denied by 1895 (95F). 5. ___ (15/20) ____ Feb 16, 2023 (70) denied by 1954 (71F). 6. ___ (14.5/20) __ Aug 9, 1949 (100) broken by 2001 (103F). t7 ___ (14/20) ___ Apr 17 1976 (91) lost record to 96F in 2002. t7 ___ (14/20) ___ Apr 18 2002 (91) denied by 96F in 1976. 9. ___ (13.5/20) __Nov 1, 1974 (81) denied by 84F in 1950. t10 ___ (13/20) ___ Apr 7 1929 (89) lost record to 92F in 2010. t10 ___ (13/20) ___ Apr 8 1929 (88) lost record to 90F in 1991. 12. ___ (12.83/20) ___ Feb 15, 1954 (69) denied by 1949 (73F) 13. ___ (12.67/20) ___ Jan 14, 2005 (66F) was not a record (70F 1932). 14. ___ (11.67/20) ___ Jan 12, 2017 (66F) lost out to 70F in 2020. 15. ___ (11.5/20) ____ Aug 27, 1953/73 (98F) denied by 1948 (100F) The list will be checked in future, there are numerous cases just outside this top 15 in the 9-11 range. (List is objectively generated by considering how many days among the 20 on either side of the lost or unclaimed record the "snubbed record" would be a daily record -- that is the meaning of the number in brackets. A tie is counted by its decimal equivalent (0.5 or 0.33) as a tie created by its inclusion. The weakest records by number broken within ten days either side are: Weakest daily records Rank __ Days (/20) __ Details 1. ___ (0/20) ___ 56F Feb 7, 2020 (lowest daily record) 2. ___ (0/20) ___ 58F Dec 19, 1899 t1931 is second lowest daily record (tied with case below) 3. ___ (0/20) ___ 58F Jan 15, 1995 is tied second lowest daily record (tied with above case) 4. ___ (0/20) ___ 88F May 14, 1900 is lowest since May 1, 2001 (87F). 5. ___ (0/20) ___ 93F June 12, 1933, 1973, 2017 is lowest after 92F for May 18. 6. ___ (0/20) ___ 92F Aug 23, 1916, lower than all records until tie Sep 15th, 91F Sep 18th. t7. ___(0.5/20) ___ 65F Mar 3, 1991 lowest after Feb 14 (62F). Tied 65F Feb 26, 1890 (t7) 9. ___ (1/20) ___ 59F Feb 2, 1988 would only beat #1 above. 10. ___ (1/20) ___ 60F Jan 10, 1876 would only beat #3 above. 11. ___ (1/20) ___ 96F June 28, 1969, 1991 (beats only 95F June 18) 12. ___ (1/20) ___ 71F Nov 17, 1953 (beats only 67F on Nov 26) 13. ___ (1/20) ___ 67F Nov 26, 1946 (beats only 66F on Dec 2, 1970) Quite a few records score 1.5 or 2.0 in this regard. It should be noted that "shoulder season" records are at a disadvantage as seasonal averages fall or rise. Even so, a few of these have entered the list.

Predict temp anomalies for nine locations (F deg relative to 1991-2020 averages) ... DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Deadline is 06z Feb 1st. (late Wednesday evening in EST)

I don't currently see the potential for snow as depicted except over VT and west of river as boundary layer will be 35-40 F with rain over e ma, RI and CT almost to end of precip. Looking at PA now, still 45-50 F in that portion of circulation, not in warm sector but between fronts, and cold air is so far north in Canada and high just doesn't have any ability to push lower dewpoints into moisture band staying so far north. You know I'm going to predict as much snow as possible in any given situation but I am not keen on this one. Yes it will finish off with 2-4" in places. But it's going to keep raining longer than some of the guidance would suggest. (unless the guidance is basically wrong about thermals). No idea why some models are showing as much snow as they do. I hope I am wrong and you get a good snowfall. It could be 6-10 inches in a few higher spots in s VT and w ma. Would go with 0.50" to 1.00" rain and 2-4" snow at end of storm event otherwise, Tr to 2" in se ma and coastal CT-RI, Long Island. maine and nh could see a little better results, 3-6" but even so, rain to start. The danger sign is that 534-540 dm thickness ribbon on RGEm is way too far north to support a good snowfall event.

I recall before the larger storm 5th-7th in Feb 2010 there was 7-10 in of snow around Jan 30-31; before that it had been mild with rain around Jan 26th. Then there was a third snowfall event around Feb 10th.

Euro opened door to a polar vortex dropping south after Feb 2-3 and GFS explores possibility of a long-duration snowfall event, will be interesting to track how this develops as it looks like quite a pattern changer on GFS. As to the first event, needs better phasing with distant cold high to work out well but at least it's something.

It looks like Blizzard of 78 except it doesn't get locked into place for two days. But even a 50% outcome of '78 would be quite a good storm. GFS continues to suggest caution but seems to be going against the herd. Good luck !

Weather has turned nasty here, 42F and rain, gradual snow melt is turning our formerly ideal cover to waterlogged slush (still over 18" base). Foggy and mild like the coast basically. Not wanted or needed around here.

Just a few questions about MJO ... (a) is it always progressive, I see it stalls out occasionally but does it ever retrogress significantly? (b) if it goes all around the earth's tropical zone, what is its average period? (c) what is the variability of said period? (looked it up, says 30-60d, no average given) (d) does it track enhanced convection or is it more complicated than that? In my research I am tracking all sorts of weak progressive and retrograde mid-latitude signals of various periods; they are only significant at a very low level in the range of 0.5 to 1.0 F deg, not really all that useful for forecasting but interesting nonetheless. So I am trying to figure out what (if any) research signals would correspond to MJO. Off topic but in 1967, today's high 68, low 54 at NYC.

Also, records were being set for warmth around this part of January, 1967, (68F on 24th) and pattern flipped with the "Chicago blizzard" storm of Jan 26-27. After that it turned very cold. In my recollection, warmth spreading as far east as Regina is not badly correlated with cold weather in the n.e. US, if it gets as far east as Winnipeg to Grand Forks ND then it's more likely to go zonally coast to coast. All depends on the amplitude of the upper ridge near 110W which is very likely to be there as a basic cause of any western Canada warmings. The chinook zone normally ends between Regina and Swift Current SK but really strong chinook warmings can push close enough that temps go to the low 40s (F) in Regina and Estevan. Chinook warmings in southern Alberta can be well into the 60s F and the record in Feb is 72F. I think that was in 1954 which produced a very mild Feb in eastern Canada and the n.e. US as well. So for February, I would say a lot depends on amplitude of what seems to be inevitably a strong ridge forming near the Rockies to west coast. If that ridge is flat-topped and lows continually feed in across Yukon and NWT towards n SK and central manitoba then it will be coast-to-coast warm. If the ridge pushes into the subarctic it will set up a pipeline of cold air from eastern/central Canadian arctic across hudson bay, Quebec and Ontario into the n.e. US. The Pacific lows are forced to go north into Alaska and die out over western arctic islands, or else come back south but as leading cold fronts for super cold outbreaks.

A repeat of 1-23-2016 (obviously not on 1-23-2024) would work almost perfectly for AtlanticWx or psuhoffman. One or two modest KU events in Feb and march plus 2-4 other events would work well for quite a few.