Roger Smith

Prince Frederick laid down his crown and his ermine robes, and wandered off to who knows where, promising to return next winter. That could be 2038 the way things were going the past two so-called winters. Meanwhile he asked me to defend the realm (which I won't due to a nasty combination of inability and lack of funding) and to start a summer heat forecast contest, which I think is the only real reason for this post. Your challenge, should you choose to accept it, is to predict the highest temperatures to be observed at each of (you guessed it) BWI, DCA, IAD and SLC just kidding RIC. You can add SLC if you want, choose any number between 99 and 101 and you'll be right. Wonderful scenery, non-challenging climate they have round Utah, I would go and tell you more but they won't let me in because of some cough going around. Anyway, here's my opening salvo in this contest, torn between the idea that the cold spell in May guarantees a scorcher, or just possibly is a sign of some long awaited return to the climate of the 1850s. Fat chance of that, so I will go with BWI _ 103 DCA _ 103 IAD _ 101 RIC _ 102 and make the bold prediction that I will not be dead last, or dead, or last, but ya never know. The real deadline is not T384 but whenever we have a nice turnout and I spot anything on the model runs that looks like potential action in this contest. Let's say it won't close before June 10th end of day, but could go a few days past that. And once again I for one (insert verb of choice) my Mid-Atl overlords from my distant outpost beyond the hills. Get a 10% discount by mentioning "lack of contrails" in your post.

Here's the annual "hurricane forecast contest" with a simplified format compared to other recent years, just the seasonal count is required this year, no monthly details. You can add your thoughts about that of course. The contest remains open to mid-June as the June monthly count won't be all that big a deal-breaker. Keep in mind that with Arthur's brief reign of slight disruption the count is already 1/0/0. My entry will be 20/13/7 so quite an active year and I suspect the main focus of activity may be the east coast for a change. That's not to say the usual areas of activity won't see their fair share, but I am expecting some fairly strong storms to develop in the Atlantic near the Carolinas possibly impacting the mid-Atlantic states more often than we've seen in several years. Post your forecasts and discussions ...

(Possibly) Final report on Snowfall contest While some chance remains for further snowfalls at DEN, this could be the final report too ... see comments at bottom for potential for any changes in the standings shown in part two of these tables (part one being your forecasts). FORECASTER _________________DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ DTW _ BUF____ DEN _ SEA _ BTV ___ Snowfall to date (May 15) ___ 0.6 __ 4.8 _ 15.8 ___ 34.8 __43.7 _ 69.2 ___ 57.6 __ 0.7 _ 69.7 Tom __________________________ 27.6 _ 48.1 _ 59.8 ___ 44.5 _ 39.8 _ 97.6 ___ 68.6 __ 4.8 _ 85.1 wxallannj _____________________ 22.4 _ 33.5 _ 44.7 ___ 38,9 _ 38.8 _ 69.6 ___ 41.3 __ 7.2 _ 79.4 wxdude64 ____________________ 20.6 _ 42.5 _ 54.1 ___ 50.6 _ 52.7 _100.9 ___ 69.8 __ 9.6 _ 97.4 BKViking ______________________19.0 _ 36.0 _ 51.0 ___ 42.0 _ 29.0 _ 84.0 ___ 55.0 __ 8.0 _ 77.0 hudsonvalley21 _______________ 15.8 _ 31.2 _ 47.7 ___ 42.2 _ 52.6 _ 91.3 ___ 61.1 __10.4 _ 88.8 Roger Smith __________________ 15.5 _ 38.5 _ 55.8 ___ 60.5 _ 60.2 _102.5 ___109.7__ 7.5 _110.5 RodneyS ______________________14.4 _ 25.1 _ 40.0 ___ 35.0 _ 38.0 _100.0 ___ 80.0 __ 4.0 _ 88.0 Scotty Lightning _______________12.0 _ 24.0 _ 36.0 ___ 48.0 _ 67.0 _105.0 ___45.0 __14.0 _ 90.0 DonSutherland1 _______________10.0 _ 23.5 _ 36.0 ___ 30.0 _ 35.0 _110.0 ___ 83.0 __ 6.5 _ 90.0 ___ consensus (mean) _________ 17.5 _ 33.6 _ 47.2 ____ 44.1 _ 45.9 __95.7 ___ 68.2 __ 8.0 _ 94.0 ___ % to date ___________________ 3.5 __ 14 ___ 34 ______ 79 ___ 96 ___ 73 _____ 84 ___ 8.7 __ 75 _________________________________________________________________________________________________ It is quite unusual, I believe, for both DCA and SEA to have an essentially snowless winter, usually it would be one but not the other. Current scoring for the snowfall contest Unless shown in red, all these departures are errors on the higher side, and can be reduced if any further snowfall occurs at any locations (now only marginally possible for DEN and perhaps the inland northeast). FORECASTER _________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ DTW _ BUF __ DEN _ SEA _ BTV ____ TOTAL wxallannj _____________________ 21.8 _ 28.7 _ 28.9 ____ 4.1 __ 4.9 __ 0.4 ___ 16.3 __ 6.5 __ 9.7 ___ 121.3 BKViking ______________________18.4 _ 31.2 _ 35.2 ____ 7.2 __14.7 _ 14.8 ____2.6 __ 7.3 __ 7.3 ___ 138.7 RodneyS ______________________13.8 _ 20.3 _ 24.2 ____ 0.2 __ 5.7 _ 30.8 ____ 22.4 __3.3 _ 18.3 ___ 139.0 hudsonvalley21 _______________ 15.2 _ 26.4 _ 31.9 ____ 7.4 __ 8.9 _ 22.1 _____3.5 __ 9.7 _ 19.1 ___ 144.2 DonSutherland1 ________________9.4 _ 18.7 _ 20.2 ____ 4.8 __ 8.7 __ 40.8 ___ 25.4 __ 5.8 _ 20.3 ___ 154.1 ___ consensus (mean) _________ 16.9 _ 28.8 _ 31.4 _____ 9.3 __ 2.2 __26.5 ____ 10.6 __ 7.3 _ 24.3 ___ 157.3 Scotty Lightning _______________11.4 _ 19.2 _ 20.2 ___ 13.2 _ 23.3 _ 35.8 ____12.6__13.3 _ 20.3 ___ 169.3 Tom __________________________ 27.0 _ 43.3 _ 44.0 ____ 9.7 __ 3.9 _ 28.4 ____ 11.0 __ 4.1 _ 15.4 ___ 186.8 wxdude64 ____________________ 20.0 _ 37.7 _ 38.3 ___ 15.8 __ 9.0 _ 31.7 ___ 12.2 __ 8.9 _ 27.7 ___ 201.3 Roger Smith __________________ 14.9 _ 33.7 _ 40.0 ___ 25.7 _ 16.5 _ 34.3 ____ 52.1__ 6.8 _ 40.8 ___ 263.8 __________________________________________________________________________________ (Apr 1st) _ Standings are subject to change, especially if DEN picks up more snow, as the contest leader (wxallannj) will be accumulating error with additional DEN snowfall, and second place BKV has only 1.1" left before starting to do the same; third and fourth place Rodney and DonSutherland1 have some snow left to give -- Rodney can overtake the leader if 12" or more should fall at DEN. Otherwise it would appear that a few more inches at say BTV or ORD-DTW would make no great difference to the outcome. So we await further developments at DEN. (Apr 15th) _ DEN has picked up 1.8" this month, BUF 0.9" and DTW 0.2" -- RodneyS now needs DEN snowfall of 10.5" although any further snow at DTW adds a bit to the task. (May 4th) _ ORD and DTW both added 4.7" since last report. For the three leaders, that generally meant no significant change as they had enough to absorb that addition at ORD and were already accumulating for DTW (wxallannj gained slightly as he was not quite over the limit for DTW.) The Midwest snow did move hudsonvalley21 past DonSutherland1 in the contest standings. Since DEN has added only 1.9" since last report above, given the above slight differential, that reduces the amount needed by RodneyS now to 8.8" to catch wxallannj. RodneyS has moved to within 0.3" of second place BKV who is also now accumulating error points at DEN, so a further 0.2" would change those positions. BUF added 1.9", BOS 0.7" and BTV 0.1" -- these reduced all forecaster total errors equally. (May 16th) _ Since the last report, DTW added 0.5" BUF 0.3" and BTV 0.1" (NYC trace !) ... these amounts leave the contest in the same situation awaiting any further snow which now is almost certain to be confined to DEN (if any falls, the current model run has no really strong indications of any). I will be posting this summary in the May thread and any further edits or comments will be found there.

As I posted elsewhere on the forum, have been updating the Toronto (city) weather records and noted that the first record low minimum in May since 1923 was obtained on the 9th with 28 F (previous record 29 F in 1850). The maximum of 42 F on the 8th failed to beat the mark set in 1947 (41 F) and on the 9th 44 F missed the 1966 record by 1 deg also. The location saw six consecutive days with lowest temperatures since 1967 (an arbitrary division in my research data created by dates in a publication I used to generate the daily records against which I have checked all available internet historical data since then). The air temperatures of -0.4 (11th) and 0.0 (12th) represent latest of season for converted to 31F and 32F since 1924 (for the 31F with 30 on 21st) and 1936 (for the 32F on 16th). Previous to that the frost season extends later and later with the smaller urban heat island in place, and eventually reaches its latest observation of June 10 in 1842 (a reading of 28F which is both the latest 32 or colder, and tied for June extreme with an earlier date in 1843). There was a reading of 34 F on May 24, 1956, and a report of snow at YYZ on night of May 25 to 26 1961. That snow failed to reach the downtown location (back in a time when this was a first order continually observing site) and the morning low was 37 F. Going back to early June 1945 there were snow flurries reported at Toronto downtown, only the second occasion with June traces of snow (the other being 1859). The latest 1.0" snowfall in the records was on 9th in 1923 (1.3"), and the latest 0.5" on 12th in 1966, with 0.2" on 15th of 1959 and the latest measurable amount 0.1" on 16th of 1884. After that daily records are all traces only and are quite infrequent. So this cold spell seems to be a benchmark event. I would be grateful for any thoughts about snow reports as my only guide for that now is snow depth reporting, the previous station listing both rain and snow amounts downtown ended operations in 2017. I assume that most of the 1.0 mm precip on May 8 was snow downtown, how about with the Sunday night into Monday event? That seemed more like either cold rain or melting snow at the location? Both 1966 and 1967 were very backward springs with unusually late leaf foliation, as I recall from reading my own high school era weather station west of Toronto, the trees were not fully in leaf until around the end of May those two years. I can also remember running at a track meet in Guelph ON in falling wet snow some time around the 10th of May in 1967, so if you had to choose one of those two summers to follow, I would say 1966 (a hot, dry summer) as opposed to 1967 (June was very warm and humid with excessive rainfalls, the rest of the summer rather cool). It was quite a contrast to the previous two years when May (1964,65) had well above normal temperatures and in both of those the weather turned quite chilly at the end of May into early June.

Updated anomaly tracker (look down way down) ... ____________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA _____________ (8d) __________ --3.4 _ --2.0 _ +0.3 __ --3.4 _ --1.5 _ +3.3 ___ +2.2 _ +7.9 _ +2.1 ____________ (15d) __________ --5.5 _ --4.5 _ --2.6 __ --3.9 _ --3.3 _ +1.0 ___ +0.3 _ +6.0 _ +5.0 ____________ (22d) __________ --4.4 _ --3.5 _ --2.3 __ --2.6 _ --2.5 _ +1.5 ___ +2.4 _ +3.8 _ +3.6 ____________ (p15d) ________ --5.0 _ --5.0 _ --4.0 __ --6.0 _ --3.0 _ +1.5 ___ +0.5 _ +5.0 _ +1.5 ____________ (p21d) ________ --3.5 _ --3.0 _ --2.0 __ --2.5 _ --2.0 _ +0.7 ____ 0.0 _ +3.5 _ +3.5 ____________ (p25d) ________ --3.0 _ --3.0 _ --3.0 __ --4.0 _ --2.5 _ +1.0 ____ 0.0 _ +3.5 _ +0.5 _16th_______ (p31d) ________--2.0 _ --2.0 _ --1.5 __ --1.5 _ --1.0 _ +0.5 ____ 0.0 _ +2.5 _ +2.5 _23rd_______ (p31d) ________ --3.0 _ --2.0 _ --1.0 __ --1.5 _ --1.5 _ +0.5 ___ +1.5_ +3.5 _ +3.0 _30th ______ (p 31 d) ________ --2.0 _--2.0 _ --1.0 __ +1.0 _--1.5 _ +0.5 ___ +2.5_ +3.5 _ +3.0 Final anomalies _____________--2.2 _--2.1 _ --1.1 __ +0.8_--1.2 _+1.1 ___+2.5 _+4.1 _+3.3 _(9th) _ Turning exceptionally cold in eastern regions with near record daytime cold reported today in Midwest, and a rain-snow mix from a clipper expected within a day or two, so the current falling anomalies will likely bottom out around -6 later this week then recover slightly by 15th. The second half of the month does not look much warmer relative to normal. West has been sizzling and while DEN likely to find itself in a frontal zone next week, warmth will continue in the southwest. Snowfall contest report was updated in the March thread, I will post it over here mid-week following any updates for ORD, DTW, BUF and BTV that may occur (nothing noted since May 4th update yet). (16th) _ As expected the anomalies dropped rapidly in eastern and central regions with a rebound on the 15th, but the pattern this coming week looks rather cool after the weekend and negatives may be preserved right to the end of the month in reduced form. The west will remain on the warm side but DEN is close enough to the jet stream boundary that I am holding the projection near normal with lots of variation expected. While SEA has been running quite warm, inland at my location we are probably just a slight amount above normal after 15 days. We only had one day here that exceeded 25 C (a week ago Saturday) and otherwise a lot of near normal temperatures recently. (23rd) _ Anomalies have remained unusually low in the east, not sure where the month ranks at U.S. locations but at Toronto it could be coldest May since 1997 or even 1967. In the west it has been generally quite warm to hot at times, and looks to remain that way (Denver will have some mixed results). Have updated the end of month provisionals and will post some preliminary scoring estimates based on those. No changes to snowfall anywhere since last report. DEN running out of time but season goes to June 30th. (30th) _ Most of the provisionals are doing okay but ORD has run warmer than expected and has been adjusted. Scoring for ORD will be adjusted in the provisional scoring. DCA and DEN also slightly adjusted. (June 1st) _ Final anomalies are now all posted overnight and scoring adjusted. Final values are color coded.

Table of forecasts for May 2020 FORECASTER ___________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA Scotty Lightning _________+1.0 _+0.5 __0.0 ___ 0.0 _+1.0 _+1.5 ____ 0.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 JakkelWx _______________ +0.6 _+0.2 _--0.5 __ +0.7 _+2.0 _+0.6 __ +1.1 _+1.4 _--0.5 BKViking ________________+0.5 _+0.5 _+0.2 __ +0.5 _+2.2 _+1.1 __ +2.5 _+2.0 _+1.8 ___ Normal ______________ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 RJay ____________________ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ___--1.0 _+1.0 __ 0.0 __ +1.5 _+1.5 _+1.0 Roger Smith ____________ --0.3 _--0.5 _--0.8 __ --1.0 _--1.0 _--0.7 __ --2.0 _+0.2 __0.0 wxallannj _______________ --0.4 _--0.5 _--0.6 __ --1.6 _+0.8 _+0.7 __ +1.2 _+2.0 _+1.5 ___ Consensus __________ --0.4 _--0.6 _--0.8 __ --1.1 _+0.9 _+1.0 __ +1.4 _+2.0 _+1.0 DonSutherland1 ________ --0.4 _--1.0 _--1.2 __ --1.0 _ +0.5 _+0.9 __ +1.1 _+2.8 _+1.0 hudsonvalley21 _________ --0.7 _--0.8 _--0.9 __ --1.2 _+0.9 _+1.4 __ +1.7 _+2.5 _+1.3 Brian5671 ______________ --1.0 _--1.5 _--2.0 ___ 0.0 _+1.0 _+2.0 __ +3.0 _+2.0 _+2.0 wxdude64 ______________ --1.1 _--1.3 _--1.6 __ --1.9 _+0.8 _+1.2 __ +2.3 _+2.1 _+0.4 Tom ____________________--1.6 _--1.9 _--1.9 __ --2.2 _--0.9 _+0.5 __ +0.5 _+1.2 _+0.9 RodneyS ________________--1.7 _--1.7 _--1.2 __ --2.4 _--0.3 _+1.6 __ +3.0 _+3.4 _+1.4 ___________________________________________________________ Very pleased not to have any late penalties this month ... consensus is the median of twelve forecasts, or the mean of sixth and seventh ranked forecast for each location (not including Normal). Color codes show the warmest and coldest forecasts for each location. Normal is colder for PHX than all forecasts. In a couple of days I will have an update on the snowfall contest placed in this thread; the most recent update about three weeks ago was edited into a post in the March thread. There has been a bit of snow\ at DEN since then.

< < < < < ........ <<<< ---- ====== Annual Scoring (Jan-Apr) 2020 ====== ---- >>>> .......> > > > > Numbers in red denote highest cumulative scores for each of nine locations. Numbers in bold black type denote highest subtotals for regions. Some late penalties in March were reduced (because of the April decision) and a few scores were adjusted in the March scoring tables. The increases were minor (5-12 points). It was not deemed necessary to adjust February and there were no late penalties in January. FORECASTER ______________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__ c/e __DEN_PHX_SEA__west ___ TOTAL RodneyS ___________________280_ 228_246 __ 754 __327_207_206 __ 740 __1494 __282_254_222__758 ____ 2252 Don Sutherland.1 ___________232 _218_210 __ 660 __287_204_208 __ 699 __1359 __ 200_244_242__686 ____2045 RJay ______________________ 258 _251_189 __ 698 __183 _196 _217 __ 596 __1294 __218_285_210__713 ____2007 hudsonvalley21 ____________175 _172 _211 __ 558 __222 _208_203 __ 633 __1191 __217 _333_219__769____1960 wxallannj __________________204 _208 _209 __ 621 __203 _197 _226 __ 626 __1247 __208_292_202__702 ____1949 ___ Consensus _____________184 _164 _205 __ 553__199 _187_222 __ 608 __1161 __208_322_222__752 _____1913 BKViking ___________________164 _160 _181 __ 505__196 _152 _202__ 550 __1055 __199_334_237__770 ____1825 Brian5671 _________________ 237 _213 _203 __ 653 __100 _228_219 __ 547 __1200 ___97_280_238__615 ____1815 Tom _______________________ 160 _140 _180 __ 480__189 _190 _195__ 574 __1054 __ 203_338_209__750 ____1804 Scotty Lightning ____________100 __ 70 _110 __ 280 __150 _179_258__ 587 __ 867 __ 176 _336_272__784 ____1651 wxdude64 __________________ 90 __ 74 __101 __ 265__154_155 _227__ 536 __ 801 __ 212 _276_169__657 ____1458 ___ Normal __________________74 __ 50 __ 86 __ 210 __140 _138 _168__ 446 __ 656 __168_330_ 272__770 ____1426 Roger Smith ________________132__117 _158 __ 407 __157 _215_180__ 552 __ 959 __198 _156_100__454 ____1413 JakkelWx _ (2/4) ____________ 40 __ 21 __ 70 __ 131 __ 57 _ 59 _122 __ 238 __ 369 __ 90 _174 _ 56 __ 320 _____ 689 yoda _ (2/4) _________________64 __ 43 __ 16 __ 123 __ 18_118 _125 __ 261 __ 384 __ 71 _161_ 70 __ 302 _____ 686 rclab _ (1/4) _________________05 __ 00 __ 00 __ 005 __ 00 _ 11 _ 24 __ 035 __ 040 ___ 56 _ 88 _ 66 __ 210 _____ 250 dwave _ (1/4) _______________ 72 __ 75 __ 48 __ 195 __ 12 _ 25 _ 10 __ 047 __ 242 ___ 16 _ 34 _ 00 __ 050 _____ 292 Maxim _ (1/4) _______________00 __ 00 __ 00 __ 000 __ 00 _ 20 _ 46 __ 066 __ 066 ___ 32 _ 50 _ 34 __ 116 _____ 182 Rhino16 _ (1/4) ______________00 __ 05 __ 20 __ 025 __ 00 _ 13 _ 30 __ 043 __ 068 ___ 04 _ 52 _ 54 __ 110 _____ 178 ============================================================================== Extreme forecast standings 30 of 36 forecasts so far have qualified for an extreme forecast award for the warmest forecast(s), 20 for warmest and 10 for coldest. FORECASTER ____ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _ Apr _ May etc ___ Standings to date Brian 5671 _______ 4-0 __ 1-0 __ 3-1 __ 1-0 __ ---- _______ 9 - 1 RodneyS _________ 2-0 __ 3-0 __ 0-1 __ ---- __ ---- ________ 5 - 1 Roger Smith ______ ---- __ ---- __ 1-0 __ 4-2 __ ---- ________ 5 - 2 RJay _____________ ---- __ ---- __ 3-0 __ ---- __ ---- _________ 3 - 0 Scotty Lightning __ 2-0 __ 0-0 __ ---- __ 1-0 __ ---- ________3 - 0 DonSutherland1___0-0 __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ ---- _______ 3 - 0 Normal ___________1-0 __ 0-1 __ ---- __ 1-0 __ ---- ________ 2 - 1 RClab ____________ 2-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- _________ 2 - 0 yoda _____________ 0-0 __ 1-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- _________1 - 0 Tom _____________ 1-0 __ 0-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- _________ 1 - 0 wxdude64 ________ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ 1-0 __ ---- _________ 1 - 0 ================================================================================ BEST SCORES -- Totals for January to April Forecasters are listed in same order as annual points standings. Ties are possible which is why some locations have more than two best scores, also, if Normal or consensus achieve a top score, the actual forecaster with high score gets an award also. FORECASTER ______________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA__west___Months RodneyS ___________________ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 2 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 2 ____ 2 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 _____ 2 _ Jan, Feb DonSutherland.1 ____________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 2 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 _____ 1 _ Mar, Apr RJay _______________________ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 _____ 0 hudsonvalley21 _____________0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 wxallannj ___________________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 ___ Consensus ______________0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 BKViking ___________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 _____ 0 Brian5671 __________________ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 _____ 0 Tom ________________________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 Scotty Lightning ____________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 0 _____ 0 wxdude64 __________________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 _____ Normal _______________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 _____ 1 ___ Apr Roger Smith ________________ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 yoda _______________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 RClab _______________________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 _____ 0

-0.3 _ -0.5 _ -0.8 __ -1.0 _ -1.0 _ -0.7 __ -2.0 _ +0.2 __ 0.0

Final Scoring for April 2020 BOS scores are now adjusted to the max 60 rule as top raw score was 50. The new distribution favors everyone but me so I have lodged a protest with myself which I plan to ignore. ... Normal score was adjusted to scale and on raw score was 30. NYC also finished colder than provisional and almost went the same way but I held on to 62 points there so no adjustments. ... Hudsonvalley21 late penalties are only 1 point where applied, those are marked with an asterisk (raw score was one higher) ... RJay had a 5% late penalty assigned as explained above in previous post. That leads to a separate line of final scoring with the raw scores partially hidden in the light orange type. FORECASTER _________DCA_NYC_BOS_east__ORD_ATL_IAH_cent__c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA _ west __ TOTAL ___ Normal ___________ 70 _ 46 _ 56^__ 172 __ 88 _ 92 _ 74 __ 254 _ 426 __ 76 _ 70 _ 60 __ 206 ____ 632 DonSutherland.1 ______60 _ 36 _ 55^__ 151 __ 92 _ 78 _ 84 __ 254 _ 405 __ 86 _ 74 _ 30 __ 190 ____ 595 Scotty Lightning ______ 50 _ 26 _ 45^__ 121 __ 68 _ 62 _ 96 __ 226 _ 347 __ 56 _100 _70 __ 226 ____ 573 hudsonvalley21 (-1%) _ 51*_ 30 _ 50^__ 131 __ 81*_73*_87*__ 241 _ 372 __ 69*_ 67*_51*__187_566-7= 559 Roger Smith __________ 80 _ 62 _60^__ 202 __ 68 _ 88 _ 44 __ 200 _ 402 __ 64 _ 40 _ 44 __ 148 ____ 550 Tom __________________ 48 _ 28 _ 45^__ 121 __ 78 _ 56 _ 76 __ 210 _ 331 __ 82 _ 76 _ 30 __ 188 ____ 519 RJay __________________40 _ 16 _ 25^__ 081 __ 88 _ 62 _ 94 __ 244 _ 325 __ 76 _ 70 _ 60 __ 206 _ 531 RJay ____ (-5%) ________38 _ 15 _ 24^__ 077 __ 84 _ 59 _ 89 __ 232 _ 309 __ 72 _ 67 _ 58 __ 197 ____ 506 ___ Consensus ________ 36 _ 16 _ 30^__ 082 __ 68 _ 48 _ 76 __ 192 _ 274 __ 76 _ 70 _ 44 __ 190 ____ 464 JakkelWx ______________12 _ 00 _ 30^__ 042 __ 50 _ 22 _ 74 __ 146 _ 188 __ 78 _ 86 _ 50 __ 214 ____ 402 RodneyS ______________ 34 _ 16 _ 35^__ 085 __ 74 _ 36 _ 36 __ 146 _ 231 __ 80 _ 66 _ 22 __ 168 ____ 399 BKViking ______________ 02 _ 00 _ 05^__ 007 __ 44 _ 12 _ 76 __ 132 _ 139 __ 66 _ 94 _ 80 __ 240 ____ 379 wxallannj ______________36 _ 14 _ 20^__ 070 __ 48 _ 48 _ 92 __ 188 _ 258 __ 52 _ 50 _ 14 __ 116 ____ 374 Brian5671 _____________00 _ 00 _ 15^__ 015 __ 28 _ 00 _ 46 __ 074 _ 089 __ 56 _ 90 _ 90 __ 236 ____ 325 wxdude64 _____________08 _ 00 _ 10^__ 018 __ 56 _ 30 _ 60 __ 146 _ 164 __ 98 _ 38 _ 08 __ 144 ____ 308 Maxim ________________ 00 _ 00 _ 00 __ 000 __ 00 _ 20 _ 46 __ 066 _ 066 __ 32 _ 50 _ 34 __ 116 ____ 182 _____________________________________________________________________________ Extreme forecast report Going cold gave your host four extreme forecast awards (DCA, NYC, BOS, and ATL) with Normal sharing the ATL award. At ORD DonS has the high score with second coldest forecast for a win, Roger Smith takes a loss here. IAH ended up a little closer to our consensus and won't be an extreme forecast this month. DEN was running as cold as -4 for quite a while then warmed up big time, so wxdude64 has a win and Roger Smith another loss. PHX has verified right on the money for warmest forecast (Scotty Lightning at +1.5). SEA has warmed considerably against our expectations and that gives Brian5671 a win with warmest forecast still a half degree below the outcome. So the summary would be 4-2 for Roger Smith on the month, and wins for Normal, DonS, SL, wxdude64 and Brian5671. ________________________________________ Annual update follows, after revision of some penalized scoring in March. DonS has moved up several spots and RodneyS has a much smaller lead than last month, some shuffling of the deck below that.

In my case, it's the broken clock syndrome. Figures that nature would waste below normal on April after that sad excuse for a winter though ... Have decided the following on the late penalty situation. Just happy that we seem to have survived the pandemic, so will be reducing earlier issued late penalties and just tapping RJay lightly for his entry at the new max of 5%. Former late penalties will be basically cut in half with the same max. I can edit the scoring in earlier threads to reflect this (no penalties were that much bigger anyway so won't be much of an adjustment of scores already posted) ... I really wanted to go with the no penalty sentiment but then I have these pre-existing late penalties already applied, seemed a bit too lenient to say zero. But I realize that RJay made a forecast under health duress and probably without much influence from guidance. So I needed to balance all of those considerations. Moving forward, I will just set the late penalties a bit more leniently but they will be applied where necessary. The new standard will be 1% for every 8 hours late up to 2 days (8%) then 1% added per hour. Hope people think this is a fair solution for everyone. Scoring to follow, updating the anomalies tonight (a few posts back now).

Predict the temperature anomalies for these locations for May 2020 (F deg rel to 1981-2010) ... DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Good luck and good health !!

After the first four weeks ... _________________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA ____ (7d) ________________+3.9_ +4.0 _+1.4 __ +5.9 _+4.6 _+1.9 __ +0.3 _+1.7 _--2.1 ____ (14d) _______________+3.2_ +2.2 _+1.1 __ +3.4 _+3.1 _+2.0 __ --3.1 _--1.4 _+0.2 ____ (21d) _______________--0.1_ --0.6 _--1.3 __ --0.1 _+0.5 _+1.1 __ --4.0 _--1.5 _+1.8 ____ (28d) _______________--1.6_ --2.6 _--3.3 __ --0.4 _--0.1 _+1.5 __ --1.8 _+0.8 _+1.9 ____ (p14d) _____________ +1.0_ +1.0 _--1.0 __ +1.5 _+1.5 _+0.5 __ --2.0 _+0.5 _--1.0 ____ (p21d) _____________ +1.5_ +1.0 _+0.2 __ +1.0 _+1.5 _+1.0 __ --2.5 _--0.5 __ 0.0 ____ (p24d) ______________ 0.0__ 0.0 _--2.0 __ --1.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ --1.5 _+0.5 __ 0.0 15th__ (p30d) ___________+0.3__0.0 _--1.0 __ --1.5 _ +0.5 _+0.5 __ --1.5 _+0.5 _ +0.5 22nd__ (p30d) ___________+0.3__0.0 _--1.0 __ --1.0 _ +0.5 _+1.0 __ --2.5 _--0.5 _ +1.2 29th__ (p30d) ___________--1.0_--2.0 _--3.0 __ --0.5 _ --0.5 _+2.0 __ --1.0 _+1.5 _ +2.5 Final anomalies _________--1.5_--2.7 _--3.5 __ --0.6 _--0.4 _+1.3 __ --1.2 _+1.5 _ +2.0 (8th) _ The trends in the coming week appear fairly cold relative to normal, and this remains the case to some extent in the longer range although departures do not look very great. Quite a few of the locations are slowly trending towards a near normal overall outcome after this faintly warm start, more or less the afterglow of the warm March we just finished. (15th) _ This past week saw a slight drop in the earlier anomalies, one very warm day on Monday 13th in the east prevented a larger slide there. It continues to look rather cold in eastern and central regions both this coming week and later in the month. Will stay with the original idea for the 24th as end of month anomaly projection with slight changes. The snowfall contest has been updated in the March thread. Around the end of the month I will move the post over here, contest runs until Denver stops snowing which is often mid-May. It can still affect the outcome of this contest. (22nd) _ Anomalies have dropped to near or even below zero in some cases, but the coming week looks a bit closer to average, and I have only adjusted the earlier end of month projections slightly. Will perhaps post some preliminary scoring soon. (29th) _ Warmth in western regions has reversed some anomalies there, but east locked into rather cold weather for a while yet. (May 1st) _ Posting final anomalies overnight and updating the scoring below. All are now confirmed. Scoring is more or less complete (just checking some updated totals).

Thanks, RJay, as a friend of the contest in many ways, and in view of extenuating circumstances which you explained to me privately, I am going to post your forecast with just a small time penalty that would protect the field given that you had a bit of extra information by posting time. But I won't apply the entire penalty. As I mentioned, anyone else who (in coming months) has more pressing concerns at forecast time should feel free to seek a partial waiver on late penalties. I am just going to say -x% for now and see what I think is fair after assessing a few things that aren't in my head right now, such as trends in modelling since 1st, and differential from consensus in the forecast submitted. Anyone who would like to offer an opinion on this, would prefer in private message.

Forecasts for April, 2020 FORECASTER _________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA Maxim ________________ +4.5 _+4.2 _+4.0 ___+5.9 _+3.6 _+4.0 __ +2.2 _--1.0 _--1.3 Brian5671 _____________+4.0 _+3.5 _+2.5 ___+3.0 _+5.0 _+4.0 __ +1.0 _+1.0 _+1.5 BKViking ______________+3.4 _+3.3 _+2.8 ___+2.2 _+4.0 _+2.5 __ +0.5 _+1.2 _+1.0 wxdude64 _____________+3.1 _+2.9 _+2.6 ___+1.6 _+3.1 _+3.3 __ --1.1 _--1.6 _--2.6 JakkelWx _____________ +2.9 _+3.0 _+1.3 ___+1.9 _+3.5 _+2.7 __ --0.1 _+0.8 _--0.5 RodneyS ______________ +1.8 _+1.5 _+1.2 ___+0.7 _+2.8 _+4.5 __ --0.2 _--0.2 _--1.9 ___ Consensus ________ +1.7 _+1.5 _+1.3 ___+1.0 _+2.2 _+2.5 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 _--0.8 wxallannj _____________ +1.7 _+1.6 _+1.9 ___+2.0 _+2.2 _+1.7 __ +1.2 _--1.0 _--2.3 RJay ___ (-5%) ________ +1.5 _+1.5 _+1.5 ____ 0.0 _+1.5 _+1.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 Tom __________________ +1.1 _+0.9 _+1.0 ___+0.5 _+1.8 _+2.5 __ --0.3 _+0.3 _--1.5 Scotty Lightning ______ +1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___+1.0 _+1.5 _+1.5 __ +1.0 _+1.5 _+0.5 hudsonvalley21 (-1%) _ +0.9 _+0.8 _+0.7 ___+0.3 _+0.9 _+0.7 __ +0.3 _--0.1 _--0.4 DonSutherland.1 ______ +0.5 _+0.5 _+0.2 ___--1.0 _+0.7 _+0.5 __ --0.5 _+0.2 _--1.5 ___ Normal _____________0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 Roger Smith __________ --0.5 _--0.8 _--1.0 ___ --2.2 _--1.0 _--1.5 __--3.0 _--1.5 _--0.8 ______________________________________________________________________ Color codes reveal the warmest and coldest forecasts for each location.

-0.5 __ -0.8 __ -1.0 __ -2.2 __ -1.0 __ -1.5 __ -3.0 __ -1.5 __ -0.8 (late penalties will start soon but will waive for any legit cause)

Predict the temperature anomalies for nine locations relative to the 1981-2010 averages ... DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Deadline for entries is 06z April 1st, with late penalties applying from then to 18z April 2nd, larger penalties kick in at that point. Good luck !!

Will say 1492 and first high risk a major outbreak in the south-central states around Feb 8th-9th.

Oops, no tie-breaker. But I don;t foresee being tied so there you go. Not looking too bad on the long-range charts for an early end to frost-free season, question might be, would all four go at the same time? Takes a fairly potent cold shot to do that, I would assume, with DCA in such a warmed up location and RIC further south.

Given that voters in most countries are divided on their level of concern about climate change, I think the best political solution is to reshape the paradigm and take climate change out of the equation to some extent, focusing instead on benefits in general from alternative (non-fossil-fuel) energy sources. If there are demonstrable benefits from such a transition, then the climate change issue fades into the background. Another change in political emphasis should be towards mitigation of problems. Whether the alleged problems are caused by AGW, other forms of natural variability, or non-climate factors, these problems need to be addressed. For example, forest fires (or wildfires) are said to be increasing. Maybe they are, maybe not. But more to the point, an advanced society should be able to manage this problem. It is probably more cpmplex than just AGW forcing more fires. There are questions like changing lifestyles (the exurban population increasing rapidly), interface questions, and philosophies about fighting or containing fires. So that sort of climate-related issue can be approached as a self-contained problem that the climate is not a key factor in controlling, in fact it would make a lot of sense to have large changes in our management of the wildfire issue, regardless of what the climate is doing or not doing. To some extent, I think the climate "emergency" is overblown hype, those who peddle it for political gain seem to have no knowledge whatsoever of the range of past weather and climate events. There may be subtle changes as part of AGW, or what we see may be just inevitable natural variability. Either way, it's a safe bet that nothing we do will actually change the future weather observed on our planet by more than a very slight amount. So knowing that, we should have mitigation strategies in place, rather than dealing in these fantasies about paying a tax on carbon to change the weather. That simply isn't going to happen, no matter how many people say so with whatever level of urgency and passion.If the oceans begin to rise in a more dramatic fashion, what can be done about it? Plans must be drawn up for protection or even removal of critical infrastructure, and populations at risk, but only when it becomes apparent that there is no alternative. I don't say this to make denial a policy, I say it because it is the only rational approach. The political parties who deal in a tax-to-solve approach are just deluding themselves and their voters. Their plans cannot possibly work. Mitigation might include diversion of some ocean water into massive desalination/irrigation projects which are needed anyway for other reasons. This is what we should be doing, rather than taxing carbon.

All four very early 10/17 in massive wintry outbreak from Midwest.

April 8, 2024 ... long totality from west TX northeast to upstate NY and Quebec. Bound to be some cloud along that line but should be within reach of most people on the forum with a bit of planning (my target would be west TX, unless a week in advance it looks like a big high over Quebec then I can go there instead).

If highs are in the 38-43 F range I would expect you would lose about 2" a day mostly to sublimation (loss into the air as water vapor). As I mentioned before the storm, we had a similar snowfall here last Wednesday that was unrelated to your storm except it happened at a similar temperature and we've had those sorts of temperatures since, and I still have full snow cover of about 2-3" here today. If it gets much above 43 F though, it's going to disappear in two or three days or so except in deeper shade. Since there's some chance of a top-up on Friday, I would expect you will get to that event with half your snow pack intact, and of course all large snow piles will start melting down a bit, but those will last until there's three or four very mild days and/or some heavy rain.

also IAD 10.6 storm total, BWI 6.6

As of mid-day climo reports, storm totals appear to be 5.4" DCA, 5.6" BWI and 7.1" IAD. Will likely add to all those with final reports.

Euro 192h ... this x5