Roger Smith

I don't think it's slow, it's pivoting with an elongated center now, leading portion is around 38N 71W and trailing back at 36.5N 73W. It looks like it's trying to hook up with the inland ULL while the one chasing it is pushing it northeast, therefore some elements on radar and satellite imagery are moving more or less due north (across LI into s NE). This will explode in next 3h, can already see the pressure falling faster now at buoy 44066 north of the center. Should be S+ over the Cape by daybreak. http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44066

03z position is approx 36.5N 72.5W.

Someone was asking for a satellite animation ... https://weather.gc.ca/satellite/satellite_anim_e.html?sat=goes&area=ecan&type=1070 You can adjust start time to get as long a loop as you want. Also this link should update to newer end times. Spot the elongated center from east of Hatteras northeast to about 36N 73W (est 990 mb). The upper lows are visible here, one east of SC and one near central Lake Huron. =============================================================================== I am expecting this cyclone to continue a slow northeast motion overnight with likely twin center formation continuing to around 41N 67W (leading) and 39.5N 69.5W (trailing). There may be a period of stalling or slow north to NNW motion tomorrow mid-day to evening then resuming a northeast drift. If any model error occurs it is likely to be a deeper 500 mb low over the Gulf of Maine or a faster phase of the two upper lows near NYC. Either of those would add 4-8" additional snow to current forecasts. My guesses are ... max 24-32" south of BOS (centered on Taunton-Plymouth) and 20 to 30" BOS to PWM to BGR into w NB, 15 to 24" Cape (east of max) and also west of coastal strip as far as central MA into e CT, gradual reduction further west to 2-4" NYC and ALB. About 10-15" in most of VT and 15-25" in most of NH/ME not in the higher coastal strip amounts.

The models have an awkward look to the interaction between GL ULL and coastal ULL around 24-30h, the elongated unified version may turn out more as a rapid domination of the coastal meaning that its heights would drop faster than shown. This could cause the deep surface low to stall or even loop (counter-clockwise) in the Gulf of Maine. If something like that happens, 20 to 35 inch amounts are very likely in the coastal strip. If it goes the way we are being shown so far, still could be 16 to 28 inch amounts.

Snow ends when? (map above) ... looks like it doesn't match line before it

Wow, that's some bomb in exactly the right place ... 20-25" potential for coastal to 100 miles inland from this.

SBY snow reports are not always very timely (from their CF6) so I'm wondering what you think was the actual snowfall at SBY on Wednesday 17th? (data needed for snowfall contest). Thanks.

1195 First max risk March 31st

Ranking seasons 1851 to 2017 167 North Atlantic tropical storm (or hurricane) seasons are ranked below by number of storms, then by hurricanes, and finally by major hurricanes. (original post) The assumption is made that 2017 will finish 17/10/5 and this assumption will be edited at the end of the season. 2017* may change ranks. It currently stands 9th and would stay there at 18/10/5 or 18/11/5. (edit October 14 at 15z -- NHC upgraded Ophelia to cat-3 which means the assumption has now changed to a finish of 17/10/6 but it will remain 9th at 18/10/6 or 18/11/6.) (update Nov 9th -- With Philippe and Rina in the books now, 2017 has made my guesstimate of 17/10/6. Any further increases will be noted but 2017 remains 9th if it adds one more storm even if that becomes a hurricane.) (update Jan 2018 ... final count confirmed as 17 10 6 for 2017) RANK _ YEAR ___ S __ H __ M _____ RANK __ YEAR ____ S __ H __ M _____ RANK __ YEAR ___ S _ M _ H _ 1 ___ 2005 ___ 28 _ 15 __ 7 ______ 61 ___ 1898 ____ 11 __ 5 __ 1 _____ 119t___ 1972 _____7 _ 3 _ 0 _ 2 ___ 1933 ___ 20 _ 11 __ 6 ______ 62t___ 1974 ____ 11 __ 4 __ 2 _____ 119t___ 1994 _____7 _ 3 _ 0 _ 3 ___ 2010 ___ 19 _ 12 __ 5 ______ 62t___ 2015 ____ 11 __ 4 __ 2 _____ 123 ___ 1858 _____6 _ 6 _ 0 _ 4 ___ 1995 ___ 19 _ 11 __ 5 ______ 64t___ 1937 ____ 11 __ 4 __ 1 _____ 124 ___ 1915 _____6 _ 5 _ 3 _ 5 ___ 1887 ___ 19 _ 11 __ 2 ______ 64t___ 1942 ____ 11 __ 4 __ 1 _____ 125t___ 1875 _____6 _ 5 _ 1 _ 6 ___ 2012 ___ 19 _ 10 __ 2 ______ 66t___ 1869 ____ 10 __ 7 __ 1 _____ 125t___ 1977 _____6 _ 5 _ 1 _ 7 ___ 2011 ___ 19 __ 7 __ 4 ______ 66t___ 1891 ____ 10 __ 7 __ 1 _____ 127 ___ 1941 _____6 _ 4 _ 3 _ 8 ___ 1969 ___ 18 _ 12 __ 5 ______ 66t___ 1903 ____ 10 __ 7 __ 1 _____ 128t___ 1856 _____6 _ 4 _ 2 _ 9 ___ 2017*___ 17 _ 10 __ 6 ______ 69 ___ 1948 ____ 10 __ 6 __ 4 _____ 128t___ 1882 ____ 6 _ 4 _ 2 _10 ___ 1936 ___ 17 __ 7 __ 1 ______ 70 ___ 1976 ____ 10 __ 6 __ 2 _____ 130t___ 1918 _____6 _ 4 _ 1 _11 ___ 1950 ___ 16 _ 11 __ 6 ______ 71 ___ 1908 ____ 10 __ 6 __ 1 _____ 130t___ 1965 _____6 _ 4 _ 1 _12 ___ 2008 ___ 16 __ 8 __ 5 ______ 72t___ 1943 ____ 10 __ 5 __ 2 _____ 132t___ 1904 _____6 _ 4 _ 0 _13t___ 1954 ___ 16 __ 7 __ 3 ______ 72t___ 1947 ____ 10 __ 5 __ 2 _____ 132t___ 1913 _____6 _ 4 _ 0 _13t___ 2003 ___ 16 __ 7 __ 3 ______ 72t___ 1970 ____ 10 __ 5 __ 2 _____ 132t___ 1986 _____6 _ 4 _ 0 _15 ___ 1949 ___ 16 __ 7 __ 2 ______ 72t___ 2006 ____ 10 __ 5 __ 2 _____ 135t___ 1851 _____6 _ 3 _ 1 _16 ___ 1916 ___ 15 _ 10 __ 5 ______ 76 ___ 1899 ____ 10 __ 3 __ 2 _____ 135t___ 1939 _____6 _ 3 _ 1 _17 ___ 2004 ___ 15 __ 9 __ 6 ______ 77 ___ 1963 _____ 9 __ 7 __ 2 _____ 137t___ 1862 _____6 _ 3 _ 0 _18 ___ 2001 ___ 15 __ 9 __ 4 ______ 78 ___ 1975 _____ 9 __ 6 __ 3 _____ 137t___ 1897 _____6 _ 3 _ 0 _19 ___ 2000 ___ 15 __ 8 __ 3 ______ 79 ___ 1888 _____ 9 __ 6 __ 2 _____ 137t___ 1911 _____6 _ 3 _ 0 _20 ___ 1932 ___ 15 __ 6 __ 4 ______ 80 ___ 1867 _____ 9 __ 6 __ 1 _____ 140 ___ 1982 _____6 _ 2 _ 1 _21 ___ 2007 ___ 15 __ 6 __ 2 ______ 81t___ 1889 _____ 9 __ 6 __ 0 _____ 141 ___ 1895 _____6 _ 2 _ 0 _22 ___ 1998 ___ 14 _ 10 __ 3 ______ 81t___ 1940 _____ 9 __ 6 __ 0 _____ 142 ___ 1852 _____5 _ 5 _ 1 _23 ___ 1944 ___ 14 __ 8 __ 3 ______ 83 ___ 1979 _____ 9 __ 5 __ 2 _____ 143 ___ 1876 _____5 _ 4 _ 2 _24 ___ 1990 ___ 14 __ 8 __ 1 ______ 84t___ 1863 _____ 9 __ 5 __ 0 _____ 144 ___ 1855 _____5 _ 4 _ 1 _25 ___ 1953 ___ 14 __ 7 __ 3 ______ 84t___ 1892 _____ 9 __ 5 __ 0 _____ 145t___ 1872 _____5 _ 4 _ 0 _26 ___ 1959 ___ 14 __ 7 __ 2 ______ 86 ___ 1938 _____ 9 __ 4 __ 2 _____ 145t___ 1920 _____5 _ 4 _ 0 _27 ___ 2016 ___ 14 __ 6 __ 2 ______ 87 ___ 1923 _____ 9 __ 4 __ 1 _____ 147 ___ 1873 _____5 _ 3 _ 2 _28 ___ 2013 ___ 14 __ 2 __ 0 ______ 88 ___ 2009 _____ 9 __ 3 __ 2 _____ 148t___ 1854 _____5 _ 3 _ 1 _29 ___ 1955 ___ 13 _ 10 __ 5 ______ 89 ___ 1859 _____ 8 __ 7 __ 1 _____ 148t___ 1910 _____5 _ 3 _ 1 _30 ___ 1996 ___ 13 __ 9 __ 6 ______ 90t___ 1871 _____ 8 __ 6 __ 2 _____ 148t___ 1922 _____5 _ 3 _ 1 _31 ___ 1934 ___ 13 __ 7 __ 1 ______ 90t___ 1879 _____ 8 __ 6 __ 2 _____ 148t___ 1929 _____5 _ 3 _ 1 _32t___ 1901 ___ 13 __ 6 __ 1 ______ 90t___ 2014 _____ 8 __ 6 __ 2 _____ 148t___ 1962 _____5 _ 3 _ 1 _32t___ 1971 ___ 13 __ 6 __ 1 ______ 93t___ 1861 _____ 8 __ 6 __ 0 _____ 153t___ 1864 _____5 _ 3 _ 0 _34 ___ 1984 ___ 13 __ 5 __ 1 ______ 93t___ 1885 _____ 8 __ 6 __ 0 _____ 153t___ 1902 _____5 _ 3 _ 0 _35 ___ 1931 ___ 13 __ 3 __ 1 ______ 95 ___ 1935 _____ 8 __ 5 __ 3 _____ 155 ___ 1919 _____5 _ 2 _ 1 _36 ___ 1893 ___ 12 _ 10 __ 5 ______ 96 ___ 1967 _____ 8 __ 5 __ 1 _____ 156 ___ 1905 _____5 _ 1 _ 1 _37 ___ 1886 ___ 12 _ 10 __ 4 ______ 97t___ 1853 _____ 8 __ 4 __ 2 _____ 157 ___ 1907 _____5 _ 0 _ 0 _38 ___ 1878 ___ 12 _ 10 __ 2 ______ 97t___ 1960 _____ 8 __ 4 __ 2 _____ 158 ___ 1884 _____4 _ 4 _ 1 _39 ___ 1999 ___ 12 __ 8 __ 5 ______ 97t___ 1991 _____ 8 __ 4 __ 2 _____ 159 ___ 1883 _____4 _ 3 _ 2 _40 ___ 1951 ___ 12 __ 8 __ 3 ______100t___ 1927 _____ 8 __ 4 __ 1 _____ 160 ___ 1983 ____ 4 _ 3 _ 1 _41t___ 1958 ___ 12 __ 7 __ 3 ______100t___ 1973 _____ 8 __ 4 __ 1 _____ 161t___ 1857 _____4 _ 3 _ 0 _41t___ 1981 ___ 12 __ 7 __ 3 ______100t___ 1993 _____ 8 __ 4 __ 1 _____ 161t___ 1868 _____4 _ 3 _ 0 _43 ___ 1964 ___ 12 __ 6 __ 6 ______103 ___ 1968 _____ 8 __ 4 __ 0 _____ 163 ___ 1917 _____4 _ 2 _ 2 _44 ___ 1909 ___ 12 __ 6 __ 4 ______104 ___ 1957 _____ 8 __ 3 __ 2 _____ 164 ___ 1890 _____4 _ 2 _ 1 _45 ___ 1988 ___ 12 __ 5 __ 3 ______105t___ 1877 _____ 8 __ 3 __ 1 _____ 165 ___ 1925 _____4 _ 1 _ 0 _46 ___ 1978 ___ 12 __ 5 __ 2 ______105t___ 1997 _____ 8 __ 3 __ 1 _____ 166 ___ 1930 _____3 _ 2 _ 2 _47 ___ 2002 ___ 12 __ 4 __ 2 ______107 ___ 1896 _____ 7 __ 6 __ 2 _____ 167 ___ 1914 _____1 _ 0 _ 0 _48 ___ 1956 ___ 12 __ 4 __ 1 ______108t___ 1860 _____ 7 __ 6 __ 1 _______ _49 ___ 1870 ___ 11 _ 10 __ 2 ______108t___ 1866 _____ 7 __ 6 __ 1 _______ _50t___ 1880 ___ 11 __ 9 __ 2 ______110 ___ 1894 _____ 7 __ 5 __ 4 _______ _50t___ 1980 ___ 11 __ 9 __ 2 ______111 ___ 1921 _____ 7 __ 5 __ 2 _______ _52 ___ 1961 ___ 11 __ 8 __ 7 ______112t___ 1912 _____ 7 __ 4 __ 1 _______ _53 ___ 1926 ___ 11 __ 8 __ 6 ______112t___ 1928 _____ 7 __ 4 __ 1 _______ _54t___ 1966 ___ 11 __ 7 __ 3 ______112t___ 1992 _____ 7 __ 4 __ 1 _______ _54t___ 1985 ___ 11 __ 7 __ 3 ______115t___ 1874 _____ 7 __ 4 __ 0 _______ _56 ___ 1989 ___ 11 __ 7 __ 2 ______115t___ 1881 _____ 7 __ 4 __ 0 _______ _57 ___ 1906 ___ 11 __ 6 __ 3 ______117 ___ 1900 _____ 7 __ 3 __ 2 _______ _58t___ 1924 ___ 11 __ 5 __ 2 ______118 ___ 1987 _____ 7 __ 3 __ 1 _______ _58t___ 1945 ___ 11 __ 5 __ 2 ______119t___ 1865 _____ 7 __ 3 __ 0 _______ _58t___ 1952 ___ 11 __ 5 __ 2 ______119t___ 1946 _____ 7 __ 3 __ 0 _______ _____________________________________________________________________ RANKS by Hurricanes only Rank __YEAR __________________________ H (M) ______ rank of majors __ 1 __ 2005 _________________________ 15 _ 7 _______ 1 (2 tied) __ 2t__ 1969, 2010 ____________________ 12 _ 5 _______ 9 (9 tied) __ 4t__ 1933, 1950 ____________________ 11 _ 6 _______ 3 (7 tied) __ 6 __ 1995 _________________________ 11 _ 5 _______10 (8 tied) __ 7 __ 1887 _________________________ 11 _ 2 _______42 (46 tied) __ 8 __ 2017 _________________________ 10 _ 6 _______ 3 (7 tied) __ 9t __ 1893, 1916, 1955 ______________ 10 _ 5 _______10 (8 tied) _ 12 __ 1886 _________________________ 10 _ 4 _______18 (7 tied) _ 13 __ 1998 _________________________ 10 _ 3 _______25 (17 tied) _ 14t _ 1870, 1878, 2012 _______________ 10 _ 2 _______42 (46 tied) _ 17t__ 1996, 2004 ____________________ 9 _ 6 _______ 3 (7 tied) _ 19 __ 2001 _________________________ 9 _ 4 _______18 (7 tied) _ 20t__ 1880, 1980 ____________________ 9 _ 2 _______42 (46 tied) _ 22 __ 1961 _________________________ 8 _ 7 _______ 1 (2 tied) _ 23 __ 1926 _________________________ 8 _ 6 _______ 3 (7 tied) _ 24t__ 1999, 2008 ____________________ 8 _ 5 _______10 (8 tied) _ 26t__ 1944, 1951, 2000 _______________ 8 _ 3 _______25 (17 tied) _ 29 __ 1990 _________________________ 8 _ 1 _______ 88 (49 tied) _ 30 __ 2011 _________________________ 7 _ 4 _______ 18 (7 tied) _ 31t__ 1953,54,58, 1966, 1981,85, 2003 __ 7 _ 3 _______ 25 (17 tied) _ 38t__ 1949, 1959, 1963, 1989 __________7 _ 2 _______ 42 (46 tied) _ 42t__ 1859,1869,1891,1903,1934,1936___7 _ 1 ________88 (49 tied) _ 48 __ 1964 _________________________6 _ 6 ________ 3 (7 tied) _ 49t__ 1909, 1932, 1948 ______________ 6 _ 4 _______ 18 (7 tied) _ 52 __ 1906, 1975 ____________________6 _ 3 _______ 25 (17 tied) _ 54t__ 1871,79,88,96, 1976, 2007,14,16 __6 _ 2 _______ 42 (46 tied) _ 62t__ 1860,66,67 1901,08, 1971 _______ 6 _ 1 _______ 88 (49 tied) _ 68t__ 1858, 1861, 1885, 1889, 1940 ____6 _ 0 ______ 137 (31 tied) _ 73 __ 1894 ________________________ 5 _ 4 ______ 18 (7 tied) _ 74t__ 1915, 1935, 1988 ______________ 5 _ 3 ______ 25 (17 tied) _ 77t__1921,24,43,45,47,52,70,78,79,2006_5 _ 2 ______ 42 (46 tied) _ 87t__1852,1875,1898, 1967,1977,1984 __5 _ 1 ______ 88 (49 tied) _ 93t__ 1863, 1892 ___________________ 5 _ 0 ______ 137 (31 tied) _ 95 __ 1941 ________________________ 4 _ 3 ______ 25 (17 tied) _ 96t __1853,56,76,82, _________ 1938,60,74,91, 2002, 2015 ___ 4 _ 2 ______ 42 (46 tied) _106t __1855,84, 1912,18,23,27,28, ________1937,42,56,65,73,92,93 _______ 4 _ 1 _______ 88 (49 tied) _120t __1872,74,81, 1904,13,20,68,86 ___ 4 _ 0 ______ 137 (31 tied) _128t __1873,83,99, 1900, 1957, 2009 ___ 3 _ 2 _______ 42 (46 tied) _134t __1851,54,77, 1910,22,29, ________ 1931,39,62,83,87,97 _________ 3 _ 1 ________ 88 (49 tied) _146t __1857,62,64,65,68, 1897, ________ 1902, 1911, 1946, 1972, 1994__3 _ 0 ________137 (31 tied) _157t __ 1917, 1930 _________________ 2 _ 2 ________ 42 (46 tied) _159t __ 1890, 1919, 1982 ____________ 2 _ 1 ________ 88 (49 tied) _162t __ 1895, 2013 _________________ 2 _ 0 ________ 137 (31 tied) _164 ___ 1905 ______________________ 1 _ 1 ________ 88 (49 tied) _165 ___ 1925 ______________________ 1 _ 0 ________ 137 (31 tied) _166t __ 1907, 1914 _________________ 0 _ 0 ________ 137 (31 tied) ____________________________________________________ seasons with this many majors: 7 _ 2 6 _ 7 5 _ 8 4 _ 7 3 _17 2 _46 1 _49 0 _31

This is the first detailed report I have seen from Dominica. https://pressroom.oecs.org/hurricane-maria-situation-report-1 (note there is an embedded NHC link which the report must have meant to freeze at Dominica's encounter but it shows the current advisory, ignore that part ... the pictures are about what I had envisaged and one can only imagine what may have occurred in isolated communities closer to the eyewall track).

I believe the fastest moving Atlantic tropical cyclone on record was the 1938 "Long Island Express." It went from 30 N 75 W at 00z Sept 21 to 35 N 73.5W at 12z, near 40 N at 18z and made landfall on Long Island (41 N) at 21z. By 00z it was in southern VT at 43N. So it gained 13 deg of latitude while shifting about 2 deg east in 24 hours, and was travelling over 60 mph at some points. You have to wonder how well modern computer models would have handled it.

and vice-versa

Arecibo reports now updated to (edit) 1418z, peak gust 98 knots at 1354z (wind still NE to 1418z and still gusting to 96 knots). Degraded eye must be very close now, next hour of reports will probably capture it if the sensors survive the surge. Interesting to note that sustained winds increase from 72 knots at 10m to 78 knots at 20m. If that rate of increase was sustained to 100m (top of high rise buildings in San Juan) it would imply 126 knots at that level -- probably not quite that linear but over 100 knots likely.

The Arecibo reports have updated for 1254z to 1318z and show a slight veering from NNE to NE, peak gust so far was at 1312z, 87 knots. Eye might come very close to this location soon.

On subject of "weakening" at landfall, in these cases where a strong hurricane approaches a hilly or mountainous region, we have to understand that the forward half of the circulation is being squeezed up so there would be some tendency for the surface elements of the eyewall region to be lifted up near the coast, net effect being a pressure rise and wind decrease at sea level but no doubt the cat-5 winds continued on to make an elevated landfall. When Patricia came inland there was evidence that pressures had risen 30-40 mbs in the six hours to landfall but winds at some elevation inland (northwest portion of eyewall) were still representative of lower eye central pressures, so really this discussion is somewhat moot, it depends on where you want to measure the winds -- but officially it is the conditions at the sea level landfall point. Those may not be known for a while but from the radar I suspect there may be patchy cat-5 damage evidence in the right front quarter of the eyewall. There will probably be widespread cat-5 type blowdown on ridges (and unfortunately the radar was located in such a spot).

Just for the historical record in this thread, CNN reporters in San Juan and on east coast just north of landfall have taken cover inside and their videos of outside conditions appear consistent with cat-3 or cat-4 conditions ... they can't stand up to report from even sheltered spots outside. Meanwhile, eye approaching Arecibo on northwest coast, winds steadily increasing to NNE 62 knots gusting 85 knots at 0048z. Observing site on shoreline reports every 6 min, don't think we get to see next ten reports until 0148z transmission (but watching for them). No pressure report from this data buoy.

Rainfalls of 20-30 inches cannot be ruled out over higher ground in PR, based on observed rainfall rates over Guadeloupe last night. Similar intensity typhoons hitting south-central Taiwan have produced 8-12 inch per hour rates and 30-50 inch totals.

Maria within range of PR/VI radar now https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=JUA&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=no

This Guadeloupe radar is now giving a better image: http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antilles/pack-public/animation/anim_radar_guad_mf_com.html and on the same site, you can access hourly obs from various locations in Guadeloupe. Unfortunately Basse-Terre was not reporting winds in the past hour, rainfalls appear to be 20-30 mm per hour.

The radar reminds me of that emoticon with a head banging against a wall. What I said earlier is of course conjectural, a hurricane this small and intense encountering a hilly but not overly large island could have a variety of solutions. My thinking was that the northern eyewall would be draped over the middle of the island (the really high terrain is in the northwest quadrant) and the 150-200 mph winds would downslope through every river valley to the coast. As for storm surge potential, storm history is important but with this sudden vacuum created by a 30-mb pressure drop, and winds likely to come around to WSW 120 mph, I wouldn't downplay the potential. There was a 15-20 ft storm surge with the 1935 Keys hurricane which was also small and could not be said to be carrying along a long-term cat-5 storm surge either.

There could be a major disaster in the making here and if anyone better connected than me (to large government or military resources) reads this, it would no doubt save lives down the road to begin plans for a rapid response, the local government will not only be overwhelmed, it could easily be obliterated. I envisage a combination of Homestead wind damage and Tacloban storm surge, thousands left with very little shelter and hundreds of injured in massive debris fields (all over the island basically but 75% of population lives in southwest quadrant). There will only be a small trickle of info coming out for 2-3 days but we could assume this need will exist starting in about an hour. Large French resources probably exist very close, although the way this thing is going, city of Basse-Terre will take quite a wallop and Pointe-a-Pitre a major storm surge so that will perhaps tie down those resources. This will be far worse than even St-Maarten. I don't think Roseau is protected at all by terrain or wind direction considerations because of the extreme intensity of this storm. Will be happy to be proven wrong but I expect the place to be flattened and exposed to 20-30 ft storm surge. (this also happened in 1780, and everything on Barbados was destroyed despite them being south of the eye). It should be noted that new moon is just 30 hours away and this will be an aggravating factor down the road in PR and eastern Dominican Republic storm surge potentials.

Radar has almost Andrew-like appearance: http://www.meteofrance.gp/previsions-meteo-antilles-guyane/animation/radar/antilles (different track but Charley 2004 perhaps) Heading straight for Roseau Dominica unfortunately, pray for a wobble.

Maria is on a track running slightly north of that taken by the Great Hurricane of October 1780 which ran from just north of Barbados (on Oct 9) across St Lucia and Martinique then northwest to the Mona Passage west of Puerto Rico. That storm killed over twenty thousand people and from the damage reports must have been a cat-5 when north of Barbados. This storm apparently tracked north-northeast after leaving Hispaniola and missed Bermuda slightly to the southeast. Another interesting factoid is that there had been two previous major hurricanes (three counting one in June), one of which hit New Orleans on August 24 and the other hitting Cuba and the Bahamas about a week before the Great Hurricane. And there was to be yet another major hurricane in the eastern Gulf of Mexico ten days later.

The only good thing about this hurricane season is that some of us are learning a lot about the Leeward Islands. Dominica is an independent nation state with just under 100k residents. About one third of those live in or near the capital Roseau which is on the southwest coast, so if the eye tracks across the island they would likely see very strong NE then NW winds and therefore not as protected from storm surge as one might initially suppose. I checked a news website and the island is on high alert with the government warning people to move away from coasts and rivers that might flood, remove potential flying debris etc. Martinique to south and Guadeloupe to north are both integral parts of France and populations of both islands are roughly similar (400k). Guadeloupe is actually two connected islands, Basse Terre and Grande Terre. I was reading that both Hugo and the 1928 "Okeechobee" hurricane devastated the economy of Guadeloupe. Martinique is the island that contains the volcano that erupted in 1902 killing 30k people and changing the location of their capital city in the process. That volcano is near the northern tip of Martinique. Looks to me like Maria will soon be cat-4 and will have major impacts on all three of these islands (regions). I think the eye will go over central Dominica but this will expose southern parts of Basse-Terre region of Guadeloupe to cat-3 winds as the distance to the track is not that large.

Just wanted to put one thought "out there" for April 8, 2024. I would be very reluctant to put much money down on cheap accommodations anywhere along that track except possibly south Texas, because of the high risk of large swaths of frontal cloud. My research would suggest the strong chance of low pressure being present somewhere near the NY-PA border with widespread frontal bands. I was very happy with the research indicators for the August 21st event, low pressure was very close to the most likely locations in both western Canada (not interfering with viewing) and central plains (enough patchy holes in that pattern to give a lot of folks a last minute reprieve, but the research did indicate the least likely spots for good viewing). Much work remains to be done on this research but there is a definite spike in both precip and cloudiness at new moon events in both March and April for Toronto, the primary research location. And a total eclipse is the newest moon you're ever going to see. Of course reality will be a mix of good and bad viewing but I would put little faith on options in upstate NY or w PA, OH.