Roger Smith

<<<<< ===== ----- ----- ----- Annual Contest Scoring Jan-Aug 2019 ----- ----- ----- ===== >>>>> A new look for the annual table this year, will continue with the all nine format of monthly scoring. Best score tallies will be handled in a separate table. From now to end of 2019, best scores will be tabulated for the eleven regular participants and this will continue with any new or temporary additions getting best scores in addition to those. Highest cumulative scores are shown in red in this table (for nine locations) or bold for subtotals. FORECASTER _____________DCA_NYC_BOS __east__ ORD_ATL_IAH__cent __ c/e ___ DEN_PHX_SEA __west___all 9 TOTAL RodneyS ________________ 537 _638 _585__1760 __542 _516 _654__1712__3472__557 _528 _508__ 1593___5065 ___ Consensus ___________595_ 676 _576 __1847__522 _492 _630 __1644 __3491 __ 473 _522 _478 __1473 ___4964 DonSutherland.1 __________533 _662 _501 __1696 __504 _492 _646 __1642 __ 3338 __ 487 _560_ 518__1565___ 4903 wxdude64 _______________565 _641 _547 __1753 __565_446 _613 __1624 __ 3377 __ 486 _509 _477 __1472____4849 wxallannj ________________588 _598 _600__1786 __442 _534 _604 __1580 __ 3366 __ 432 _528 _476 __1436____4802 hudsonvalley21 ___________537 _676 _604__1817 __484 _534 _628 __1646 __3463 __ 355 _522 _454 __1331 ____4794 Roger Smith _____________ 600 _576 _538 __1714 __442 _460 _576 __1478 __3192 __ 571 _484 _490 __1545 ____4737 BKViking ________________ 597 _645 _578 __1820 __479 _446 _583 __1508 __3328 __ 416 _466 _465 __1347 ____4675 Scotty Lightning ___________525 _620 _555 __1700 __474 _518 _602 __1594 __3294 __ 362 _470 _404 __1236 ____4530 Tom ____________________483 _609 _483 __1575 __ 528 _382 _602 __1512 __3087 __365 _514 _447 __1326 ____4413 ___ Normal ______________ 402 _640 _490 __1532 __502 _360 _600 __1462 __2994 __ 341 _515 _341__1197 ____4191 Stebo (4/8) ______________ 283 _327 _310 __ 920 __242 _219 _275 __ 736 __ 1656 __ 227 _217 _125 ___ 569 ___ 2225 RJay (4/8) _______________ 162 _246 _216 __ 624 __256 _185 _288 __ 729 __ 1353 __ 263 _279 _188 ___ 730 ___ 2083 tplbge (1/8) ______________ 90 __ 94 __ 78 __ 262 __ 46 __ 80 _100 __ 226 ___ 492 ___72 __ 88 __32 __ 192 ____684 smerby (1/8) ______________94 __ 78 __ 48 __ 220 __ 22 __ 90 _100 __ 212 ___432 ___50 __ 82 __ 96 __ 228 ____660 Jakkelwx (1/8) ____________ 92 __ 68 __ 30 __ 190 __ 50 __ 82 __ 68 __ 200 ___390___ 80 __ 90 __ 88 __ 258 ____648 _______________________________________________________________________ Best scores in each category _ (nine locations, three regional subtotals, and central-eastern or "original six" subtotal (c/e) as well as all nine). _ These are best scores in each monthly contest, best total scores are highlighted in the table above in red. Order for best scores will be based on rank in table above. _ July best scores with * are regular forecaster high scores, wxdude64 for IAH (Smerby, con as shown for IAH), and BKV, wxallannj for PHX (jakkelwx higher) also ___ Tom for west total (jakkelwx higher). FORECASTER __________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA__west___all nine RodneyS _______________ 1 ___1 ___1 ___ 3 ___ 3 ___1 ___1 ___ 3___ 2 ___ 2 ___1 ___1 ___ 2 ____ 2 _ APR,MAY ___Consensus ___________1 ___0 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0 DonSutherland.1 _________0 ___1 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___0 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___1 ___3 ___ 1 ____ 0 wxdude64 ______________ 1 ___0 ___0 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___0 ___1*___2 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___1 ___2 ___ 1 ____ 2 __ MAR, JUN wxallannj _______________1 ___2 ___1 ___ 1___ 0 ___2 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___1*___1 ___ 0 ____ 0 hudsonvalley21 __________1 ___3 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___0 ___0 ___ 1 ____ 1 __ JAN Roger Smith ____________ 4 ___0 ___1 ___ 3 ___ 2 ___3 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 3 ___2 ___1 ___ 2 ____ 1 __ JUL BKViking _______________ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___1*___0 ___0 ____ 0 Scotty Lighning __________1 ___1 ___2 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___0 ___2 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___0 ___1 ___ 0 ____ 0 __ AUG Tom ___________________0 ___2 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___0 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___0 ___ 1* ___ 0 ___ Normal _____________ 1 ___3 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0 Stebo __________________1 ___0 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ___ FEB RJay ___________________0 ___0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0 smerby _________________0 ___1 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0 jakkelwx ________________0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___0 ___ 1 ____ 0 __________________________________________________________________________________ Extreme forecasts  STANDINGS to date in 2019 Roger Smith _________16-5 RodneyS ____________ 9-4 DonSutherland1 ______ 7-0 wxallannj ____________7-2 Scotty Lightning ______ 6-0 hudsonvalley21 _______4-0 Normal __________ 4-1 Stebo ______________ 3-1 wxdude64 ___________3-0 BKViking ____________ 2-0*^ Tom _______________ 2-1 RJay _______________ 1-0 tplbge ______________ 1-0 Jakkelwx ____________ 1-0 *retained if Jakkelwx plays fewer than three. ^ no decision for BOS, SEA in Aug (highest raw score reduced by late penalty) ______________________________________________________________________________

As of now my mainframe performance is about 0.1 on the 10 point scale, laptop is about a 9. Wondering then if that means the laptop has installed some upgrade on a graphics program in use, while the mainframe has not. Anyway, unworkable for my contest files on mainframe, going along fine on laptop.

Final scoring for August 2019 FORECASTER _______________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__ c/e ___ DEN_PHX_SEA __west ___TOTAL (all nine) Scotty Lightning _____________80 _ 86_ 80 __ 246 __100_ 68 _ 70__ 238__ 484 __ 62 _ 66 _ 60 __ 188 ____ 672 Roger Smith ________________ 90 _ 46 _ 70 __ 206 __ 60 _ 78 _ 64 __ 202 __408 ___ 84 _ 78_100 __ 262 ____ 670 ___ Consensus ______________ 88 _ 82 _ 90 __260 __ 98 _ 52 _ 62 __ 212 __ 472 ___ 62 _ 58 _ 76 __ 196 ____ 668 wxallannj ___________________88 _ 84 _ 88 __ 260 __ 80 _ 46 _ 52 __ 178 __ 438 ___ 66 _ 62 _ 84 __ 212 ____ 650 hudsonvalley21 ______________92 _ 68 _ 98 __ 258 __ 98 _ 62 _ 66 __ 226 __ 484 ___ 38 _ 52 _ 76 __ 166 ____ 650 __ BKViking ___ (-8%) _______ 98 _ 62 _ 98 __ 258 __ 90 _ 54 _ 70 __ 214 __ 472 ___ 78 _ 56 _ 98 __ 232 _704 BKViking _______ (-8%) ______ 90 _ 57 _ 90 __ 237 __ 83 _ 50 _ 64 __ 197 __ 434 ___ 72 _ 52 _ 90 __ 214 ____ 648 wxdude64 __________________ 84 _ 82 _ 90 __ 256 __ 88 _ 52 _ 62 __ 202 __ 458 ___ 50 _ 58 _ 78 __ 186 ____ 644 RodneyS ___________________ 72 _ 84 _ 90 __ 246 __ 98 _ 32 _ 52 __ 182 __ 428 ___ 62 _ 56 _ 56 __ 174 ____ 602 Tom _______________________82 _ 86 _78 __ 246 __ 86 _ 50 _ 50 __ 186 __ 432 ___ 32 _ 66 _ 72 __ 170 ____ 602 DonSutherland1 _____________ 88 _ 82 _ 78 __ 248 __ 94 _ 48 _ 50 __ 192 __ 440 ___ 36 _ 42 _ 70 __ 148 ____ 588 ___ Normal _________________60 _ 96 _ 60 __ 216 __ 90 _ 40 _ 40 __ 170 __ 386 ___ 42 _ 34 _ 40 __ 116 ____ 502 ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Extreme forecasts DCA _ at +2.0, a win for hudsonvalley21 (+2.1) and a loss for Roger Smith (+2.5) . NYC _ at +0.3, a win for coldest forecasts Scotty Lightning and Tom, also Normal. BOS _ at +2.0, a win for hudsonvalley21 and a loss for Roger Smith, also a "no decision" for BKViking. ORD _ at +0.5, not an extreme forecast. ATL _ at +3.2, a win for Roger Smith (high forecast, +2.0). IAH _ at +3.0, a win for Scotty Lightning and a "no decision" for BKViking (tied before late penalty reduced score). DEN _ at +2.9, a win for Roger Smith(+3.7) PHX _ at +3.3, a win for Roger Smith (+2.1). SEA _ at +3.0, a win for Roger Smith.

Have noticed similar problems, site access is poor on my mainframe but better on laptop which has newer Windows installed.

Scoring for seasonal max 2019 (to date) wxallannj ___________________ 2 __ 1 __ 3 ___ 1 __ 2 __ 3 ______ 1 __ 1 __ 0 _____ 14 RodneyS ___________________ 0 __ 3 __ 2 ____ 0 __ 1 __ 2 ______ 3 __ 1 __ 3 _____ 15 hudsonvalley21 ______________3 __ 5 __ 2 ____ 4 __ 1 __ 0 ______ 1 __ 1 __ 1 _____ 18 DonSutherland1 _____________ 1 __ 3 __ 2 ____ 1 __ 3 __ 1 ______ 3 __ 2 __ 2 _____ 18 BKViking ___________________ 1 __ 3 __ 2 ____ 4 __ 1 __ 3 ______ 1 __ 2 __ 1 _____ 18 Tom _______________________0 __ 4 __ 2 ____ 5 __ 0 __ 1 ______ 2 __ 4 __ 2 _____ 20 wxdude64 __________________3 __ 5 __ 3 ____ 5 __ 1 __ 1 ______ 1 __ 3 __ 0 _____ 22 Scotty Lightning _____________ 3 __ 5 __ 0 ____ 1 __ 1 __ 2 ______ 6 __ 2 __ 2 _____ 22 Roger Smith ________________ 8 __ 9 __ 7 ____ 8 __ 1 __ 2 ______ 3 __ 5 __ 5 _____ 48 Seasonal Max forecasts for 2019 Roger Smith _______________ 107 _ 104 _ 105 __ 103 _ 101 _ 101 __ 104 _ 120 _ 100 wxdude64 _________________ 102 _ 100 _ 101 __ 100 __ 99 _ 104 __ 102 _ 118 __ 95 Scotty Lightning ____________ 102 _ 100 __ 98 ___ 96 _ 101 _ 105 ___ 95 _ 117 __ 93 hudsonvalley21 _____________ 101 _ 100 __ 96 ___ 99 __ 99 _ 103 __ 100 _ 116 __ 94 BKViking __________________ 100 __ 98 __ 96 ___ 99 __ 99 _ 100 __ 100 _ 117 __ 94 DonSutherland1 _____________100 __ 98 __ 96 ___ 96 __ 98 _ 102 ___ 98 _ 117 __ 93 Tom _______________________99 __ 99 __ 96 ___100 _ 101 _ 102 ___ 99 _ 119 __ 97  RodneyS ___________________ 99 __ 98 __ 96 ___ 95 __ 99 _ 101 ___ 98 _ 116 __ 92 wxallannj ___________________ 97 __ 96 __ 95 ___ 96 __ 98 _ 100 __ 100 _ 116 __ 95

Extending the anomalies and forecasts: ________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 8th ____ (7d) ____+2.9 _+1.1 _+2.4 ___ +2.0 _+1.5 _+1.6 ___ +3.2 _+4.0 _+4.7 8th ___ (p14d) ___+2.0 _+0.5 _+1.2 ___ +1.3 _+2.0 _+2.0 ___ +2.2 _+3.0 _+3.3 8th ___ (p24d) ___+1.5 __0.0 _+0.5 ___ +0.2 _+1.0 _+1.5 ___ +2.0 _+2.0 _+2.0 15th __ (14d) ____+2.2 _+0.1 _+2.2 __ +2.3 _+3.8 _ +3.7 ___ +1.9 _+3.1 _+3.5 15th __ (p21d) ___+2.0 _+1.0 _+2.5 __ +2.5 _+3.2 _ +3.1 ___ +2.0 _+3.0 _+3.2 15th __ (p31d) ___+2.0 _+1.5 _+2.0 __ +2.0 _+2.5 _+2.0 ____ +2.0 _+2.5 _+2.5 22nd ___ (21d) ___ +3.5 _+1.4 _+2.4 __ +1.9 _+4.0 _+3.4 ____ +2.6 _+3.3 _+2.7 22nd ___ (p28d) __ +2.0 _+0.8 _+1.5 __ +0.8 _+2.5 _+2.8 ____ +2.5 _+2.5 _+3.0 22nd ___ (p31d) __ +2.0 _+1.0 _+1.5 __ +0.5 _+2.0 _+2.0 ____ +2.5 _+2.5 _+2.5 29th ___ (28d) ___ +2.0 _+0.2 _+1.6 __ +0.7 _+3.3 _+3.2 ____ +2.5 _+3.2 _+2.8 29th ___ (p31d) __ +2.0 _+0.5 _+1.5 __ +0.5 _+2.5 _+3.0 ____ +2.5 _+3.0 _+2.5 final anomalies ___ +2.0 _+0.3 _+2.0 __ +0.5 _+3.1 _+3.0 ____ +2.9 _+3.2 _+3.0 15th _ The past week had an excellent verification of 0.7 deg average error. Trends going forward appear similar to the past week (hot everywhere). 22nd _ The past week improved on verification to 0.5 deg average error. The coming week looks a bit cooler in the east, still hot in the west. 29th _ The weekly verification improved to 0.32 deg. Some changes have been made to end of month estimates. 1st Sept _ Final anomalies are posted, scores adjusted. SEASONAL MAX ____ 99 __ 95 __ 98 ____ 95 __100 __ 103 ____ 101 __ 115 __ 95

July finished 1/1/0 so the scores for June and July look like this ... FORECASTER _____June_ July __ TOTAL Yoda ____________ 3.5 _ 6.0 ___ 9.5 hlcater ___________3.5 _ 6.0 ___ 9.5 cyclonic fury ______ 4.0 _ 5.5 ___ 9.5 Julian Colton ______4.0 _ 5.5 ___ 9.5 stormlover74 ______4.0 _ 5.0 ___ 9.0 Roger Smith ______ 3.0 _ 6.0 ___ 9.0 RJay ____________ 3.5 _ 5.5 ___ 9.0 NCforecaster89 ____3.5 _ 5.5 ___ 9.0 AfewUniv b n _____ 3.5 _ 5.5 ___ 9.0 yotaman _________ 3.5 _ 5.5 ___ 9.0 Normal, NHC, CSU _ 3.5 _ 5.5 ___ 9.0 Consensus _______ 3.5 _ 5.5 ___ 9.0 ineedsnow ________2.5 _ 5.5 ___ 8.0 NorthArlington101 _ 3.5 _ 4.5 ___ 8.0 snowlover2 _______3.5 _ 4.0 ___ 7.5 Stebo ___________ 3.5 _ 4.0 ___ 7.5

Table of forecasts for August 2019 FORECASTER _______________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Roger Smith ________________ +2.5 _+3.0 _+3.5 ___ +2.5 _+2.0 _+1.2 ___ +3.7 _+2.1 _+3.0 BKViking _____ (-8%) ________ +1.9 _+2.2 _+2.1 ___ +1.0 _+0.8 _+1.5 ___ +1.8 _+1.0 _+2.9 hudsonvalley21 ______________ +1.6 _+1.9 _+1.9 ___ +0.4 _+1.2 _+1.3 ___ --0.2 _+0.8 _+1.8 DonSutherland1 _____________ +1.4 _+1.2 _+0.9 ___ +0.2 _+0.5 _+0.5 ___ --0.3 _+0.3 _+1.5 wxallannj ___________________+1.4 _+1.1 _+1.4 ___ --0.5 _+0.4 _+0.6 ___ +1.2 _+1.3 _+2.2 ___ Consensus ______________ +1.4 _+1.2 _+1.5 ___ +0.4 _+0.7 _+1.1 ___ +1.0 _+1.1 _+1.8 wxdude64 __________________ +1.2 _+1.2 _+1.5 ___ --0.1 _+0.7 _+1.1 ___ +0.4 _+1.1 _+1.9 Tom _______________________+1.1 _+1.0 _+0.9 ___ --0.2 _+0.6 _+0.5 ___ --0.5 _+1.5 _+1.6 Scotty Lightning _____________ +1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ +0.5 _+1.5 _+1.5 ___ +1.0 _+1.5 _+1.0 RodneyS ____________________+0.6 _+1.1 _+1.5 ___ +0.6 _--0.3 _+0.6 ___ +1.0 _+1.0 _+0.8 ___ Normal ___________________0.0 __ 0.0 __0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __0.0 _____ 0.0 __0.0 __ 0.0 (Normal also coldest at DCA, NYC, BOS, IAH, PHX and SEA)

+2.5 _ +3.0 _ +3.5 __ +2.5 _ +2.0 _ +1.2 ___ +3.7 _ +2.1 _ +3.0

Predict the temperature anomalies (F deg) relative to 1981-2010 normal values for DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA On time deadline for entries is 06z Thursday August 1st. Good luck !!

98 at BWI yesterday.

Have the feeling that late July and August will be hotter than we've seen so far.

June had no activity so the scoring (out of four possible points) looks like this: 4 pts (0,0,0 forecasts) __ Julian Colton, Stormlover74, Cyclonic Fury 3.5 pts (1,0,0 forecasts) _ all others except below 3.0 pts (1,1,0 forecast) __ Roger Smith 2.5 pts (2,1,0 forecast) __ ineedsnow ================================= July may get some action apparently.

Table of entries for 2019 Atlantic Tropical-Season Forecast Contest This year, will be keeping all the non-contest-entrant data in a separate zone at the top of the table. For entrants, the forecasts are listed in descending order of total storms with total hurricanes the second point of breaking ties, and majors the third point. FORECASTER ___________ SEASONAL __ MAY ___ JUN___ JUL ___ AUG ___ SEP ___ OCT ___ NOV-DEC Contest Normal ___________16 8 3 _____ 1 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 4 2 1 __ 6 4 1 __ 3 2 1 __ 0 0 0 Contest consensus ________ 15 7 3 _____ 1 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 2 1 0 __ 3 2 1 __ 5 3 1 __ 2 1 1 __ 1 0 0 NHC (high end) ___________15 8 4 _____1 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 4 2 1 __ 5 4 2 __ 3 2 1 __ 0 0 0 NHC (midrange) __________ 12 6 3 _____1 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 3 2 1 __ 4 3 1 __ 2 1 1 __ 0 0 0 CSU (June fcst) ___________13 6 2 _____1 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 3 2 1 __ 5 3 1 __ 2 1 0 __ 0 0 0 _____________________________________________________________________________________ Roger Smith _____________18 12_4 ____ 1 0 0 __ 1 1 0 __ 1 1 0 __ 4 3 1 __ 6 4 2 __ 4 3 1 __ 1 0 0 ineedsnow _______________17 7 3 _____ 1 0 0 __ 2 1 0 __ 2 1 0 __ 3 1 1 __ 5 3 2 __ 4 1 0 __ 0 0 0 RJay ____________________16 9 4 _____ 1 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 2 1 0 __ 4 3 1 __ 5 4 2 __ 2 1 1 __ 1 0 0 snowlover2 ______________ 16 7 3 _____ 1 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 3 0 0 __ 3 2 1 __ 6 4 1 __ 2 1 1 __ 0 0 0 NorthArlington101 _________16 7 3 _____ 1 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 3 1 0 __ 3 2 1 __ 5 3 1 __ 2 1 1 __ 1 0 0 Julian Colton _____________ 15 9 4 _____ 1 0 0 __ 0 0 0 __ 2 1 0 __ 2 2 0 __ 4 3 2 __ 4 2 2 __ 2 1 0 NCforecaster89 ___________ 15 7 3 _____ 1 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 2 1 0 __ 3 2 1 __ 4 3 1 __ 3 1 1 __ 1 0 0 hlcater __________________15 7 2 _____ 1 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 1 1 0 __ 3 2 0 __ 5 3 1 __ 3 1 1 __ 1 0 0 Stormlover74 ____________ 15 5 1 _____ 1 0 0 __ 0 0 0 __ 2 0 0 __ 3 2 0 __ 5 3 1 __ 3 0 0 __ 1 0 0 AfewUniv b n _____________14 9 3 _____ 1 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 2 1 0 __ 3 3 1 __ 4 3 2 __ 2 2 0 __ 1 0 0 Stebo ___________________14 6 3 _____ 1 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 3 2 0 __ 3 2 1 __ 3 1 1 __ 2 1 1 __ 1 0 0 CyclonicFury _____________ 14 6 2 _____ 1 0 0 __ 0 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 4 2 1 __ 5 3 1 __ 2 1 0 __ 1 0 0 yoda ____________________13 7 2 _____ 1 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 1 1 0 __ 3 2 0 __ 4 3 2 __ 3 1 0 __ 0 0 0 yotaman ________________ 13 5 2 _____ 1 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 2 1 0 __ 3 1 0 __ 3 2 1 __ 2 1 1 __ 1 0 0 __________________________________________________________________________________ Apart from my somewhat higher forecast, the rest of our 14 entrants have chosen values fairly close to the long-term average with a bit of a spread, and so the contest is likely to be closely fought (unless we get a very active season). Our consensus is very close to the top of the NHC range.

Okay so that's 13 more named storms, a total of 14 counting the one already recorded in May ... care to mention how many will be hurricanes and of those, major hurricanes? I will enter your numbers scaled to the contest normal in the absence of any further numbers. Thanks. And in general, we have reached the deadline now, so a table of entries will be posted soon.

Reasonably good turnout for a first time contest, I for one would not mind seeing an extension through the weekend with a final push for more entries. There's no real "tells" on tonight's GFS that's for sure. But then again, June 1936 was not a very hot month. Little known fact, there were actually some record lows a few days before the big east coast July 1936 heat wave. I think you'll find some for BWI daily max earlier in the month.

April 8, 2024 ... long totality from west TX northeast to upstate NY and Quebec. Bound to be some cloud along that line but should be within reach of most people on the forum with a bit of planning (my target would be west TX, unless a week in advance it looks like a big high over Quebec then I can go there instead).

The deadline for entries will be extended through the weekend of June 1-2 to encourage a larger field. Those who have already entered may edit current forecasts during this time. Absolute deadline June 3rd 0600z, or earlier if the current slowly developing system depicted on NHS guidance map near Belize gets a more definite forecast for named storm activity. Thanks for entering.

I see there's a new invest candidate in the western Caribbean. The seasonal forecast contest will remain open past deadline tonight through the weekend or until that storm gets a more definite forecast posted. See two posts back for the link to the contest.

I came to very similar conclusions from a different research perspective (summary posted in whatever we call the main forum, I call it the Quiet Zone). Would not be surprised if there is some exceptional heat at some point in July or August as you seem to be implying. Good luck with your forecast, if you're right, I'm right.

FWIW I foresee a season that has an active coastal track similar to the peak years of the mid 1950s, as I think we will see a summer pattern similar to years like 1953 to 1955. And here's a contest you can enter in the main forum (a.k.a. the Quiet Room) ... Posting a notice in all regional forums -- 2019 hurricane (all named tropical storms) seasonal forecast contest open in tropical headquarters forum. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/52312-2019-hurricane-all-named-tropical-storms-forecast-contest/

Posting a notice in all regional forums -- 2019 hurricane (all named tropical storms) seasonal forecast contest open in tropical headquarters forum. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/52312-2019-hurricane-all-named-tropical-storms-forecast-contest/

Posting a notice in all regional forums -- 2019 hurricane (all named tropical storms) seasonal forecast contest open in tropical headquarters forum. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/52312-2019-hurricane-all-named-tropical-storms-forecast-contest/

Posting a notice in all regional forums -- 2019 hurricane (all named tropical storms) seasonal forecast contest open in tropical headquarters forum. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/52312-2019-hurricane-all-named-tropical-storms-forecast-contest/

Posting a notice in all regional forums -- 2019 hurricane (all named tropical storms) seasonal forecast contest open in tropical headquarters forum. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/52312-2019-hurricane-all-named-tropical-storms-forecast-contest/