Roger Smith

With the contests incredibly tight (range is very small from about first to tenth places) and the Regional Rumble turning into a three-way fight to the finish, we have two forecasts left, and this month we add the annual winter snowfall contest. As per last winter, I will substitute DTW, BUF and BTV for three southern locations that see little snow (usually). For the temperature contest, predict the anomaly (F deg) for these nine stations: DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA and for the snowfall contest, the forecast should be for the entire winter season including what has already fallen (at DEN about 4" last check), and you have until mid-November to submit this or edit it later. DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV We'll say end of Nov 15th as a deadline for the snowfall contest and I will send reminders. Anyone who just wants to enter that and skip the temperature contest is welcome to join in. Good luck (temp forecast due 06z Nov 1, late penalties after that time).

Wouldn't say that I am bearish about this winter, just seeing a mix of good and bad patterns, when good (mid-Dec, late Jan) you could get some decent snowfalls. I am going to be predicting near or just slightly above average amounts in the contest when that opens up. But don't anyone be too surprised if it hits 70 or higher in early January is the main message I bring in case December starts looking good. Any December snow won't stay on the ground until the next snowfall event anyway. But I don't think it will be non-stop torch like 2012. And sometimes in a warm March pattern you can get a brief reversal and slip in a bonus snowfall.

Research model results, based on index values. Added some subjective interpretation given that El Nino will be going up against a persistent looking anomalous cold set-up in east-central Canada that is already well ahead of seasonal normals (Hudson Bay for example running 3-4 deg below average SST and close to freezing up 2 months early). I think the overall pattern will be the typical El Nino in west and south but with a tighter jet emerging from northwest into the central plains states and taking a wide turn, not rebounding until clear of the east coast much of the time. The index values suggested that might relax in early January pumping up the warmth that will otherwise be suppressed to the south. I don't see the overall forecast as hugely different from the outlooks I have seen in any case. The main detail that may be different is the much above normal temps in early January and late February.

Here's my stab in the dark ... December will feature some colder than average periods and a good chance for perhaps one decent snowfall event, that most likely around Dec 20-22. January will torch for the first half, record highs are possible. Then it will turn much colder in stages. There may be a second decent snowfall event in late January. February will retain the late January cold briefly then turn warmer rather steadily, becoming much above normal late in the month. March will continue this very warm trend. Overall then a mildish winter with some brief but possibly tolerable winter spells, snowfall near normal generally despite some of the better intervals (climatology) being too warm.

This is a summary of my long-range forecast for winter 2018-19. The El Nino pattern will be wrestling with an unusually cold eastern Canadian arctic for dominance, and the results will be large variations in most of eastern North America, a fairly typical mild western pattern for an El Nino event, but meeting resistance at times from the outer edges of the cold pool which is expected to be most persistent over northern Ontario and Quebec. Consideration of some analogue cases assists with timing on the variations. For most of the eastern U.S., I think we'll see one cold spell in December, a much milder interval in the first half of January, then back to much colder in later January and early February. The pattern will then progress to coast-to-coast warmth with an early exit for winter. At times, the milder Pacific air masses will flood into central regions and in modified form out to the east coast. But whenever the cold pool intensifies, the mean polar front position will slide south across the Rockies to set up some periods of heavy snowfall there. During those episodes, low pressure will redevelop in north Texas or Oklahoma and then track towards the mid-Atlantic coast. These will be good periods for snowfall in the inland Mid-Atlantic and most of PA, NY and southern to central New England. Around late December, I expect that the western ridge will swell up over Alaska and Yukon and allow cut-off low pressure to form in the southwest states. This will lead to an interval of very mild weather in most of the south, southeast and eastern U.S. The storm track will then run from about New Mexico to Michigan to southern Quebec. Much above normal temperatures will accompany this phase of the winter. Then this mild regime will collapse as the western ridge subsides slightly and moves inland a bit further. That will lead to a weakening if not the end of the cut-off low and allow the storm track to drop back into the mid-south and east-central states. A period around Dec 21 will be one early opportunity for heavy snowfalls in the east. A second window of opportunity will occur some time in late January or the first week of February. After that, I think winter will quickly come to an end and spring-like warmth will prevail. Although some of these variations will cancel each other out, I think on the whole it will be a milder than average winter by the numbers, and snowfall will range from near average in most of the Midwest, Ohio valley and coastal eastern states, to slightly above normal in a zone from Wisconsin to Vermont. The results for the northern plains and prairies will be alternating periods of very mild and very cold weather with more snow than normal in some places and potential for one or two severe blizzards, especially around the first half of January. Record high temperatures are most likely around Jan 5 to 15. Record cold could be achieved later although I think it may be more like -10 F in places with -20 F daily records sort of a cold response. Parts of western Europe may have an unusually cold and snowy winter.

So 18z would be about 1-2 hours before sunrise there? Damage will be enormous from the looks of those images.

This English-language news source in Mexico reports severe damage but no known deaths on mainland from Willa: https://mexiconewsdaily.com/news/hurricane-willa-makes-landfall/ The reporting from Isla Maria Madre still very vague, as I mentioned in an earlier post, storm surge on that island's populated northeast coast would be mitigated by the slope up from beach to most of the small town's street grid which is mostly above storm surge plus wave action of 20' (and realizing that eye went slightly north so time spent in onshore winds somewhat reduced also). Howling downslope southwest cat-4 winds might have done a lot of damage there however. Meanwhile, the news source seems to indicate that loss of human life considerably greater with the heavy rains further east associated with remnants of Vicente moving inland. Severe urban flooding in some part of Mexico City (separate story same link). Also the large lake near Guadalajara has risen two metres above its normal levels.

Apparently there's no radar on the west coast of Mexico anywhere within range. Satellite imagery makes me think the landfall will be between Playas Novilero and Teacapan. The former is a beachfront town but a little more spread out inland than Mexico Beach was. Teacapan is basically a shanty town by its appearance on google earth, and is about a mile up an estuary from the open Pacific. It is almost entirely one-storey stucco houses and a few stores, would expect that a cat-3 hurricane direct hit would do a lot of fixable damage (mostly roofs blown off, trees down, there are a lot more trees there than in Playas Novilero). Storm surge there might not be much of an issue with the estuary. Hopefully the landfall is far enough north of Playas Novilero that it does not get the maximum surge or winds available. The country in between the two towns, which are perhaps 15 miles apart, looks to be open farmland mostly with a minimal population, so if that's ground zero the human impacts may be reduced. I tried to get some impressions of what had taken place on Isla Maria Madre which clearly was in the forward portion of the eyewall, but facebook chat sites for that community have been taken over by Texans talking about how much rain they might get from remnants of Willa, and also how it might impact the caravan (minimal I would think, other rainfall events are closer to their position in eastern Mexico anyway).

The Islas Marias have only one island with people living on it, that's Isla Maria Madre, and the population is just over one thousand. They almost all live on the northeast side of the island. As the eye of this hurricane is predicted to be nearby late tonight, I hope people there have been directed to shelters. The lat-long of the small town on the island is 21.65 N 106.65 W. It does appear that any storm surge would only inundate a small fraction of the buildings in the town as it is built on a sloping plain rising above 50 feet asl before most of the streets in the town. There is a federal jail on the island. Then in another day or so, the eye is predicted to come ashore on the mainland near a small town, Playas Novilero, which looks rather similar to Mexico Beach. I'm hoping that predictions of steady weakening prove to be true as that small town is on a flat coastline. If the storm were to swerve more to the north it would come close to Mazatlan, or to the right, San Blas, which in any case will get the stronger winds and some storm surge if landfall is to its north. San Blas has a population of about ten thousand. Inland to the east is Tepic, a larger town. In between there and the predicted landfall, just a few very small villages located several miles inland and an uninhabited stretch of flat coastline, some farmlands and some mangrove swamps in the general threat zone. This could hit land in a place where there would be almost no direct impact on people at all, if it hits south of Playas Novilero and more than 40 miles north of San Blas.

--- -- <<<<==== Updated Annual Scoring Jan - Oct 2018 ====>>>> -- ----   Part One: Eastern and Central (Original Six) ... best scores, first six numbers are for six locations, next two for eastern and central totals, then months won (red) ... station totals in red indicate best total scores, eastern and central in bold indicate best subtotals. ... when normal or consensus have high scores, forecasters with high scores also shown. ... May (none in July) best scores indicated for both "AfewUniverses b n" and if he had one, for any regular, marked* ... these second awards would be withdrawn if "AfewU bn" enters at least five three months including May by end of year (did not in June, did in July, not in Aug to Oct). ... as an example, 2* for me at DCA would revert to 1 if withdrawn, any 1* would revert to 0 (these may change to higher values in later months) ... same protocol will be applied to any high scores of Mercurial, JAN high scores c/e and all nine, and four other added regular forecaster high scores marked ^ ... ... but H2O (one ATL Jan) was tied already so no high score added (dmillz25 had same score marked as high score already). ... in the western contest, Cerakoter1984 had high score for PHX in April, regular forecaster RodneyS adds one there (marked #) ... same thing entirely for NRGJeff's high score PHX in January (Rodney S adds another, so the # denotes 2 added now) ... note the cut-off for this will be three months entered, meaning H20_Town_WX, mappy, Orangeburgwx retain sole possession of their high scores. ... if any of the 2-forecast people mentioned above enter again, the relevant regular forecaster add-ons will be withdrawn.  FORECASTER _______ DCA _NYC _BOS __ east ___ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ cent ___ TOTAL __ Best scores Roger Smith ________692 _688 _670 ___ 2050 ____ 546 _634 _522 ____1702 ___ 3752 __2*3*2 14*1 .3.1 __ MAY (T) wxallannj _______ 610 _606 _650 ____1866 ____ 524 _564 _651 ____1739 ___ 3605 ___ 001 001 .0.1 (T) DonSutherland.1 _ 624 _610 _600 ____1834 ____ 499 _657 _615 ____1771 ___ 3605 ___ 000 221 .0.2 ___Consensus ______ 597 _595 _608 ____1800 ____ 519 _573 _641 ____1733 ___ 3533 ___ 000 100 .0.0 hudsonvalley21 _____ 565 _590 _586 ____1741 ____ 483 _569 _723 ___ 1775___ 3516 ___ 100 001 .0.0 BKViking ___________586 _625 _616 ____1827 ____ 488 _520 _644 ____1652 ___ 3479 ___ 001 000 .0.1 jaxjagman _________ 582 _587 _581 ____1750 ____ 498 _575 _645 ____1718 ___ 3468 ___ 001 000 .0.1 Tom ______________ 589 _587 _607 ____1783 ____ 489 _594 _581 ____1664 ___ 3447 ___ 101 000 .0.0 _ JUN wxdude64 _________ 619 _612 _591 ____1822 ____ 501 _526 _593 ____1620 ___ 3442 ___34^0 002 .2.1 RJay ______________582 _573 _602 ____1757 ____ 449 _594 _626 ____1669 ___ 3426 ___ 123 011 .3.2 _ APR, AUG Scotty Lightning (SD) _567 _623 _602 ___ 1792 ____ 513 _514 _605 ____1632 ___ 3424 ___2^22 203 .3^.1 _ JAN^ OCT Stebo _____________ 535 _556 _554 ____1645 ____ 523 _564 _646 ____1733 ___ 3378 ___ 010 112 .0.1 RodneyS ___________572 _582 _558 ____1712 ____ 519 _535 _600 ____1654 ___ 3366 ___ 210 201 .0.4 _ MAR, JUL, SEP dmillz25 ___________ 535 _521 _513 ____1569 ____ 475 _542 _648 ____1665 ___ 3234 ___ 000 011 .0.0 ___Normal _________488 _563 _539 ____1590 ____ 482 _471 _493 ____1446 ___ 3036 ___ 001 211 .0.0 __ JAN^ so_whats_happening*_327 _375_398 ____1100 ____ 360 _423 _400 ____1183 ___ 2283 ___ 000 111 .0.1 __ FEB mappy (5/10) ________170 _185 _255 ____ 610 ____ 155 _230 _216 ____ 601 ___ 1211 ___ 001 000 .0.0 Orangeburgwx_(5/10) _179 _235 _269 ____ 683 ____ 154 _135 _233 ____ 522 ____1205 ___ 001 01*0 .0.0 afewUniverses bn (2) _ 114 _122 _144 ____ 380 ____ 139 _108 _180 ____ 427 ____ 807 ___ 110 011 .0.0 Mercurial (2/10) _____ 146 _150 _133 ____ 429 ____ 110 _132 _084 ____ 326 ____ 755 ___ 110 000 .1.0 __ JAN H2O_Town_WX (3/10)_086 _105 _155 ____ 346 ____ 158 _052 _051 ____ 261 ____ 607 ___ 001 000 .0.0 H2O ___(2/10) ______ 094 _091 _071 ____ 256 ____ 056 _125 _072 ____ 253 ____ 509 ___ 000 010 .0.0 nrgJeff _ (2/10) ______116 _092 _064 ____ 272 ____ 004 _095 _037 ____ 136 ____ 408 ___ buckeyefan (1 mo J) _ 050 _066 _048 ____ 164 ____ 018 _092 _036 ____ 146 ____ 310 ___ Cerakoter1984 (1moA)_060_062 _062 ____ 184 ____ 020 _050 _036 ____ 106 ____ 290 ___ tnweathernut(1 mo J)_ 067_056 _036 ____ 159 ____ 029 _067 _023 ____ 119 ____ 278 ___ CPcantmeasuresnow _ 002 _000 _000 ____ 002 ____ 038 _008 _040 ____ 086 ____ 088 ___ _________ (1 mo F) _^^ note: * so_whats_happening missed July, September, October all shown (2/10) missed March to October, Orangeburgwx (5/10) missed January, July to October  ... mappy (5/10) missed June to October, and H2OTown_wx (3/10) missed April to October.   Part Two: Western and All Nine contests  ... best total scores in red for three locations, best scores in months shown after total score, high western totals  for months in red ... all nine totals are shown with ranks, order of table is western scoring  FORECASTER __________ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ____ TOTAL (west) __ best scores (mo) ____ All Nine (= rank) Scotty Lightning (SD) ____ 529 _ 676 _ 668 ____ 1873 __________1 1 2 __ Apr, Aug __ 5297 (= 4) __ OCT RodneyS_______________ 610 _ 674 _ 561 ____ 1845 __________ 2 4#1 __May, Oct__ 5211 (= 7) MAR,APR,JUL BKViking _______________463 _ 671 _ 650 ____ 1784 __________ 0 1 1 ____________ 5263 (= 6) __ JUN hudsonvalley21 _________ 513 _ 601 _ 659 _____1773 __________ 0 2 2 __ Jul ______ 5289 (= 5) DonSutherland.1 ________ 502 _ 638 _ 607 _____1747 __________2^1 1 __ Jan _____ 5352 (= 2) _ JAN^ __ Consensus __________ 486 _ 648 _ 594 _____1728 __________ 0 1 0 ____________5261 (= 7) wxallannj ______________ 514 _ 676 _ 523 _____1713 __________1 1 0 __ Mar ______5318 (= 3) RJay __________________500 _ 577 _ 618 _____1695 __________ 3 1 1 __ Sep ______5121 (= 9) __ SEP Tom __________________ 532 _ 602 _ 550 _____1684 __________ 1 0 0 ____________5131 (= 8) dmillz25 _______________ 461 _ 640 _ 573 _____1674 __________ 0 1 0 __ Jun ______ 4908 (=12) Roger Smith ____________417 _ 568 _ 638 _____1623 __________ 2 0 2 __ Jan ______ 5375 (= 1) __ MAY __Normal ______________488 _ 554 _ 578 _____1620 __________ 2 1 1 ____________ 4656 (=13) __ FEB jaxjagman _____________ 427 _ 577 _ 582 _____1586 __________ 0 0 0 ____________ 5054 (=10) wxdude64 _____________ 490 _ 544 _ 485 _____1519 __________ 0 1 0 ____________ 4961 (=11) __ OCT Stebo _________________ 350 _ 563 _ 354 _____1267 __________ 0 0 0 ____________ 4645 (=13) so_whats_happening* ____313 _ 445 _ 379 _____1137 __________ 0 0 0 ____________ 3420 (=14) __ FEB Orangeburgwx (5/10)_____251 _ 345 _ 289 _____ 885 __________ 1 3 1 __ Feb ______ 2090 (=15) mappy (5/10) ___________124 _ 208 _ 179 _____ 511 __________ 0 0 0 ____________ 1722 (=16) H2OTown__WX (3/10) ___ 053 _ 180 _ 139 _____ 372 __________ 0 0 0 ______________ 979 (=20) afewUniv bn (2 mo May,Jul)132 _ 172 _ 024 _____ 328 __________ 1 0 0 _____________1135 (=17) Mercurial __ (2/10) ______ 080 _ 120 _ 078 _____ 278 __________ 1 0 0 _____________1033 (=18) __ JAN nrgJeff ____ _(2/10) _____ 042 _ 084 _ 060 _____ 186 __________ 0 1 0 _____________ 594 (=21) H2O ____ (2/10) ________ 052 _ 082 _ 047 _____ 181 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 690 (=19) cerakoter1984 (1 mo Apr) _ 000 _ 080 _ 078 _____ 158 __________ 0 1 0 _____________ 448 (=22) tnweathernut (1 mo Jan) __045 _ 058 _ 050 _____ 153 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 431 (=24) buckeyewx __(1 mo Jan) __042 _ 034 _ 046 _____ 122 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 432 (=23) CPcantmeasuresnow (1-F)_ 000 _ 030 _ 012 _____ 042 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 130 (=25)  __________________________________________________________________________________________________  Regional Rumble ... ... (_ Total scores January - October _) REGION _________ Eastern __ Central __ Western ___ TOTAL __ behind leader New York City _____ 2153 ____ 2026 ____ 2111 _____ 6290 ______0 Mid-Atlantic _______ 2162 ____ 2045 ____ 1967 _____ 6174 ____116 Philadelphia _______ 2141 ____ 1814 ____ 1927 _____ 5882 ____408 Central + Western __2204 ____ 1841 ____ 1669 _____ 5714 ____ 576 __ Consensus _____ 1800 ____ 1733 ____ 1728 _____ 5261 ____1029 Tenn Valley _______ 1798 ____ 1718 ____ 1596 _____ 5112 ___ 1178 __ Normal ________ 1590 _____1446 ____ 1620 _____ 4656 ___ 1634 Great Lakes Oh Val _ 1645 ____ 1733 _____1267 _____ 4645 ___ 1645

El Nino may not have an open stage, the cold anomaly since the summer season in central Canada is quite persistent and Hudson Bay is considerably colder than usual with prospects of early freeze-up, this normally correlates with below normal temperatures in the Great Lakes and inland northeast, so that I'm speculating the El Nino may not always be dominant in the west-central regions but instead there may be a persistent frontal boundary across the central Rockies oriented NW-SE, and confluent flow heading for Atlantic Canada. Given all of that set-up, the storm track may tend to run across the Tennessee Valley into southern Virginia fairly frequently. So I think it could be a better than average snowfall winter with slightly below normal temperatures in the Mid-Atlantic. I don't foresee long intervals of torch, nor do I see cold shots going so far south that you end up in cold, dry either (the El Nino should at least guarantee a moist south and southeast US). With any luck, one or two decent snowfalls this winter. When the contest comes around, I am going to go something like 50% above normal, nothing spectacular like 2010, but solid.

Final scoring for October 2018 Scores are based on the final anomalies in the previous post. Color codes from warmest and coldest forecasts are preserved. If either becomes high score, it is changed to bold type. Otherwise the high scores are in black bold type. Raw scores before late penalties are in orange, the contest scores are in the second line for those forecasters. FORECASTER ______________DCA_NYC_BOS___east___ORD_ATL_IAH__central, c/e total__DEN_PHX_SEA__west___all nine Scotty Lightning ____________ 58 _ 96_ 98___ 252 ___ 96 _ 38 _ 96 ___ 230 __482 ____56 _ 32 _ 80 ___ 168 ____650 hudsonvalley21 _____________82 _ 58 _ 72 ___ 212 ___ 80 _ 72 _ 96 ___ 248__ 460 ____ 56 _ 30 _ 96 ___182 ____ 642 DonSutherland.1 ____________92 _ 50 _ 68 ___ 210 ___ 58 _ 90 _100 ___248__ 458 ____ 42 _ 36 _ 88 ___166 ____ 624 wxallannj __________________90 _ 50 _ 58 ___ 198 ___ 74 _ 82 _ 90 ___ 246 __ 444 ____ 54 _ 50 _ 70 ___ 174 ____ 618 RodneyS __________________ 92 _ 40 _ 38 ___ 170 ___ 46 _ 80 _ 72 ___ 198 __ 368 ____ 96 _64 _ 86___ 246 ____ 614 Stebo _____________________88 _ 62 _ 50 ___ 200 ___ 74 _ 58 _ 96 ___ 228 __ 428 ____ 76 _ 62 _ 44 ___ 182 ____ 610 ___ Normal ________________38 _ 84 _ 92 ___ 214 ___ 96 _ 18 _ 84___ 198 __ 412 ____ 66 _ 42 _ 80 ___ 188 ___ 600 jaxjagman ________________ 80 _ 72 _ 68 ___ 220 ___ 70 _ 60 _ 98 ___ 228 __ 448 ____ 88 _ 54 _ 76 ___ 218 _ 666 ____________ (-10%) _______72 _ 65 _ 61 ___ 198 ___ 63 _ 54 _ 88 ___ 205 __ 403 ____ 79 _ 49 _ 68 ___ 196 ____ 599 __ Consensus ______________ 94 _ 56 _ 50 ___ 200 ___ 74 _ 60 _ 96 ___ 230 __ 430 ____ 56 _ 42 _ 70 ___ 168 ____ 598 BKViking __________________ 94 _ 56 _ 46 ___ 196 ___ 88 _ 50 _ 96 ___ 234 __ 430 ____ 60 _ 56 _ 50 ___ 166 _ 596 _____________ (-2%) _______92 _ 55 _ 45 ___ 192 ___ 86 _ 49 _ 94 ___ 229 __ 421 ____ 59 _ 55 _ 49 ___ 163 ____ 584 dmillz25 ___________________88 _ 52 _ 38 ___ 178 ___ 74 _ 48 _ 96 ___ 218 __ 396 ____ 86 _ 62 _ 40 ___ 188 ____ 584 Tom _____________________ 98 _ 58 _ 46 ___ 202 ___ 64 _ 58 _ 94 ___ 216 __ 418 ____ 62 _ 38 _ 62 ___ 162 ____ 580 wxdude64 _________________48 _ 90 _ 82 ___ 220 ___ 62 _ 54 _ 86 ___ 202__ 422 ____ 54 _ 20 _ 52 ___ 126 ____ 548 RJay _____________________ 98 _ 56 _ 48 ___ 202 ___ 64 _ 68 _ 76 ___ 208 __ 410 ____ 46 _ 42 _ 60 ___ 148 _ 558 _____________ (-6%) _______92 _ 53 _ 45 ___ 190 ___ 60 _ 64 _ 71 ___ 195 __ 385 ____ 43 _ 39 _ 56 ___ 138 ____ 523 Roger Smith _______________ 82 _ 46 _ 48 ___ 176 ___ 44 _ 92 _ 66 ___ 202 __ 378 ____ 06 _ 02 _ 90 ___ 098 ____ 476 Regional Rumble -- final scoring for October 2018 REGION ______________ Eastern __ Central __ Western ___ TOTAL ___ (annual) Mid Atlantic ____________ 220 _____ 202 _____ 246 ______ 668 _____ 6174 (2) Philadelphia ____________ 252 _____ 230 _____ 168 ______ 650 _____ 5882 (3) New York City __________ 212 _____ 248 _____ 188 ______ 648 _____ 6290 (1) TN Valley ______________ 198 _____ 205 _____ 196 ______ 599 _____ 5112 (5) Great Lakes / Ohio Valley __200 _____ 228 _____ 182 ______ 610 _____ 4645 (6) ___ Normal ____________ 214 ______198 _____ 188 ______ 600 _____ 4656 (6) ___ Consensus __________ 200 _____ 230 _____ 168 ______ 598 _____ 5261 (5) Central + Western _______ 176 _____ 202 _____ 098 ______ 476 _____ 5714 (4)

So the project is to turn this into a cat-2 in a couple of days. Good luck with that. Maybe no surge guy can assist. (I noticed that no surge guy went from no surge to "won't last long" which you have to wonder, how brief is an okay surge?). I hope those Tyndall folks can back up their 150-170 mph estimates, not because I doubt them at all but because it will be helpful for the eventual decisions about how strong this really was at landfall. Thinking 70% likely cat-4 and 30% possible cat-5 somewhere in the zone, but we may never know for sure.

Going to post this in the main thread too, cannot comment on the accuracy but very interesting: (from twitter, this didn't post quite the way it looks on my reply screen)

A footnote, the 2000 Michael was no dud either, it became a cat-2 hurricane just before hitting isolated villages on the south coast of Newfoundland and it did some damage there, I don't recall all the details but if that same storm had hit Long Island then this would have had a different name than Michael.

That "no surge" guy must have read comments somewhere on the internet that Panama City would be spared a storm surge, and thought that would apply as far south as Mexico Beach but in all probability the storm surge was something like 3' around Panama City, 10' just a little south of Tyndall and appeared to be 12-15 feet at least in Mexico Beach. There would have been a horrendous result if Michael had been even five miles to the left of its actual path, ten to fifteen would have been worst case scenario (for metro Panama City). That's the only good thing we can say about this strongest of all cat-2 hurricanes.

SENC, all of the data-based arguments you have presented fall into one of two categories: (a) the data were incomplete due to instrument failure before the strongest winds, or (b) the data are correct but are taken from locations that nobody claims to have been in the strongest wind zone. I'm surprised you haven't figured this out for yourself, even as dim an intellect as my own managed to reach these conclusions. To be more specific, it is quite plausible that winds continued to increase at Tyndall AFB and the Panama City buoy, review your own data and you'll see that both cut out and stopped reporting. And the Panama City Beach and Tyndall Tower (located south of Cape San Blas) data are correct but pressures will show you how far they were outside the core. I don't see any evidence that you're disputing the central pressure being around 920 mb at landfall. So how could that possibly be a cat-2? Then there's the entire issue of no data yet known at least for wind speeds between Tyndall AFB and Appalachicola. For that we have only secondary evidence such as the widespread damage at Mexico Beach.

Near the time of landfall there was a 35 mb pressure difference between the two reporting buoys at Panama City and Panama Beach, located maybe 10 miles apart. Tyndall AFB was reporting 924 mb when the station went off-line (with northeast winds gusting to 119 knots). If the usual ratio of RFQ to back side prevailed, Mexico Beach or some location a bit closer to Panama City possibly would have been 1.3 to 1.5 times that with the same pressure. (1.3 x 120 = 156 knots, about 175 mph right?). But I suspect the ratio may have been more like 1.1 in this storm due to unequal radar signatures indicating squallier conditions on the normally weaker side, so perhaps 132 knots instead. I don't think we will ever know except from secondary evidence and that will include damage that might have been partially due to wind and partially due to storm surge. In any case, the 918 mb pressure tells most of the story. Also that 119 knots may not have been the peak wind gust at Tyndall, although it occurred quite close to the maximum radar wind potential just as the eyewall was coming on shore.

This discussion about the real wind speeds (on land) is pointless because (a) instruments failed before those might have been recorded at some locations, and (b) we have yet to see any documented evidence of actual wind speeds near Mexico Beach. There may be none available. Sometimes an assertion can be true for unexpected reasons too. If there's a 12-15 foot storm surge with waves added, the maximum winds will be dislocated higher by at least 12-15 feet. Look at the readings from any ocean buoy in a passing eyewall situation. They rarely get anywhere near the dropsonde measured wind speeds within 50 feet of the mean sea surface, partly because of the low exposure altitudes and partly because of the wave environment. It's hard to get a 145 mph wind between two 30' waves. This was no cat-2 but a sustained cat-3 will do considerable damage, a lot of the outcome depends on duration rather than peak gusts. I was living near a tornado path about thirty years ago and watched very brief gusts hit trees near my home that seemed to be EF-2 (like the tornado itself) but they only lasted a few seconds and the trees were not destroyed as they would have been if the gusts had continued for 2-3 minutes.

That main thread is like this one, only longer with a few interruptions from people who seem to be meteorologists or something.

Contest update: The previous post contained provisional scoring that was based on consensus forecasts for October (2 1 1 ) and Nov-Dec (1 0 0 ). This has since been adjusted to 3 2 1 for Oct. (edit 28th). As of the last hour, the October provisional is the actual count with Michael attaining major status and Nadine a new tropical storm. The current seasonal total is 14 7 2. (edit this has now reached 15 8 2) ... The operating provisional seasonal total is therefore 15 7 2 (edit this has now reached 16 8 2). As explained in the post above, September went to 7 4 1 when Leslie attained hurricane intensity on Oct 2 (contest rules keep all status changes with the month of first naming). However, an alternate scoring table will be provided with the status changes in their actual months. That would make September 7 3 1 and October 2 2 1. (edit now 3 3 1) The effects on the top seven (since expanded to 15) ranked scores are shown below the scoring table but that table is the official contest scoring (estimated for now). From now to end of contest, all changes to the scoring will be based on actual rather than projected events with the exception that we will carry 1 0 0 for Nov-Dec until such time as it either becomes exceeded or appears more likely to turn out 0 0 0 (a change that I might make after Nov 15th if it seemed appropriate). Then the contest runs officially to end of December.

Doubt there is any chance of a direct hit there, but some rather high tides likely on Wednesday and perhaps tropical storm conditions briefly. Think the range of plausible landfalls is Mobile Bay to about Cedar Key, my guess being Panama City almost directly.

The anomaly trackers and predictions ... updated regularly (next after 24d, then after 28th, end of month) ... color coded actual and forecast entries can be directly compared for accuracy. _________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Anomalies 8th _____ (7d) ___________ +11.1_ +7.9_ +4.2 __ +7.1_+12.5_ +6.8 ___ +0.6_ --6.1_ --2.6 15th ____ (14d) ____________+9.4_ +7.1_ +4.9 __ +4.2_ +9.5_ +5.9 ___ --7.2_ --6.8_ --0.6 22nd ____ (21d) ___________ +6.2_ +3.4_ +2.8 __ +0.3_ +7.1_ +2.0 ___ --5.1_ --5.6_ +0.4 25th ____ (24d) ___________ +4.8_ +2.4_ +1.7 __ --0.1_ +5.9_ +0.6 ___ --3.6_ --4.6_ +0.3 28th ____ (28d) ___________ +3.4_ +1.0_ +0.7 __ --0.3_ +4.2_ +0.6 ___ --3.6_ --4.6_ +0.3 7-day NWS forecast values 8th _____ (p14d) __________ +8.0_ +6.5_ +5.0 __ +5.0_ +9.0_ +5.0 ___ --6.5_ --7.0_ --1.8 15th ____ (p21d) __________ +4.6_ +3.3_ +1.5 __ +0.2_ +6.0_ +2.0 ___ --5.5_ --6.0_ +1.6 22nd____ (p28d) __________ +2.5_ +0.5_ +0.1 __--1.2_ +3.5 _ +0.3 ___ --1.9_ --3.5_ +0.9 adding GFS model output to 24th 8th _____ (p24d) __________ +4.0_ +3.0_ +2.5 __ +3.0_ +5.0_ +1.0 ___ --2.5_ --3.0_ --0.5 adding GFS model output when required (after 7d NWS) to give end of month provisional 15th ____ (p31d) __________ +2.0_ +1.0__ 0.0 __ --2.0_ +2.0_ --1.0 ___ --3.0_ --3.5_ +1.0 22nd ____ (p31d) __________ +2.0__ 0.0_ --0.5 __ --1.5_ +3.0__ 0.0 ___ --3.0_ --3.5_ +1.0 25th ____ (p31d) __________ +3.0_ +1.0_ +0.5 __ --1.0_ +3.5_ +0.5 ___ --2.0_ --2.5_ +0.5 29th ____ (p31d) __________ +3.0_ +1.0_ +0.5 ___ 0.0_ +4.0_ +1.0 ___ --2.0_ --3.0_ +0.5 __ FINAL ANOMALIES __ _______ ( 31d ) __________ +3.1_+0.8_+0.4 __ +0.2_+4.1_+0.8 ___ --1.7_--2.9_+1.0 (8th) _ Anomalies will peak for ORD and ATL around 10th then fall off sharply there, west has started quite cold but looks to warm somewhat in the third week, so all of these rather large anomalies currently and to the middle of the month will possibly look much less impressive towards end of month, question being can any of them be reversed? The seasonal max contest is probably done now, although ATL had a few days recently that almost matched theirs. Results of seasonal max contest can be found in the September thread. (15th) _ The second week NWS predictions were quite good and despite a large change in the regime the average error was only 0.7 deg. This coming week will remain quite chilly in most of the locations with SEA enjoying a warm spell. The GFS output for the period 22nd to 31st looked relatively cold in general and the values reached by the 21st will continue to fall steadily, the provisionals at end of month are somewhat conservative in that regard (it could be colder than shown in other words). SEA should remain a bit on the warmer side of average for that last portion of the month and hold on to their small positive anomaly built up this week. If these provisionals hold close to reality, the contest will be wide open with the people making the biggest upward moves currently in the middle to lower half of the table. Will predict that it will be very close from top to bottom of the tables by end of this month. (22nd) _ The third week NWS predictions were very good at measuring the rapid changes, with an average error of only 0.67 deg (SEA may have come in a bit lower due to persistent fog near the end of the week, other nearby stations probably had smaller errors). The projections look about the same as earlier but various values of end of month provisionals have been tweaked slightly. Scores will be changed later today. When finished, the annual scoring summary will appear too. It has become a very tight race to the finish especially for the "all nine" portion. (25th) _ This update can be compared directly to the 16-day forecasts made from NWS then GFS (8-16d) back on the 8th. These fared quite well mostly, except for ORD which has cooled off a lot more than predicted. The average error was 1.23 F deg, without ORD it was 0.89. The provisionals for end of month have (except for SEA) have been raised by half to one degree, the main reason being a combination of slight underperformance of cold to date combining with somewhat warmer temperatures than previously expected due to the coastal storm (closer to normal although still running a bit cool). SEA will be dropped by half a degree. Scoring tables updated. Next update after 28 days on 29th. (29th) _ The weekly forecasts were fairly close at 0.81 average error. Central stations are all running a bit warmer than predicted and there are warmer days at the end of the month in east and central so have adjusted the central provisionals and maintained the eastern. DEN on track, today is warm but next two days not so much, should finish near the -2.0 earlier shown. PHX may be cooler by half a degree and SEA could drop as much as needed for the 0.5 although perhaps 0.7 most likely now (won't change tables for that small an adjustment to all but two scores in same direction). ... these changes are now in the scoring tables. (Nov 1) _ Final anomalies are now all posted at the end of the table above. Scoring will be finalized by about 18z.

Table of forecasts for October 2018 FORECASTER ________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Roger Smith ________________ +4.0 _+3.5 _+3.0 ___ +3.0 _+4.5 _+2.5 ____ +3.0 _+2.0 _+1.5 wxallannj ___________________+3.6 _+3.3 _+2.5 ___ +1.5 _+3.2 _+1.3 ____ +0.6 _--0.4 _--0.5 RodneyS ___________________ +3.5 _+3.8 _+3.5 ___ +2.9 _+3.1 _+2.2 ____ --1.5 _--1.1 _+0.3 DonSutherland.1 _____________+3.5 _+3.3 _+2.0 ___ +2.3 _+3.6 _+0.8 ____ +1.2 _+0.3 _+0.4 RJay _________ (-6%) _______ +3.0 _+3.0 _+3.0 ___ +2.0 _+2.5 _+2.0 ____ +1.0 __0.0 _--1.0 Tom _______________________+3.0 _+2.9 _+3.1 ___ +2.0 _+2.0 _+0.5 ____ +0.2 _+0.2 _--0.9 BKViking ______ (-2%) _______ +2.8 _+3.0 _+3.1 ___ +0.8 _+1.6 _+1.0 ____ +0.3 _--0.7 _--1.5 ___ Consensus ______________ +2.8 _+3.0 _+2.9 ___ +1.5 _+2.1 _+1.0 ____ +0.5 __0.0 _--0.5 dmillz25 ____________________+2.5 _+3.2 _+3.5 ___ +1.5 _+1.5 _+1.0 ____ --1.0 _--1.0 _--2.0 Stebo ______________________ +2.5 _+2.7 _+2.9 ___ +1.5 _+2.0 _+1.0 ____ --0.5 _--1.0 _--1.8 hudsonvalley21 _______________+2.2 _+2.9 _+1.8 ___ +1.2 _+2.7 _+0.6 ____ +0.5 _+0.6 _+0.8 jaxjagman ___ (-10%) _________+2.1 _+2.2 _+2.0 ___ +1.7 _+2.1 _+0.7 ____ --1.1 _--0.6 _--0.2 Scotty Lightning ______________ +1.0 _+1.0 _+0.5 ____ 0.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ____ +0.5 _+0.5 __0.0 wxdude64 __________________ +0.5 _+0.3 _--0.5 ___ --1.7 _+1.8 _+1.5 ____ +0.6 _+1.1 _--1.4 ___ Normal __________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___________________________________________________________________________ Color codes show warmest and coldest forecasts. Consensus (median) is 7th ranked forecast. Normal is colder than all forecasts for DCA, NYC and ATL, IAH.

Missed the deadline for entering the first freeze contest, would expect them all to go on the same night in late October or the first few days of November with a large arctic outbreak that might be the first of many this winter. The warmth of recent weeks will likely persist until that happens though. The central Canadian arctic has had a very cool summer and ice is spreading south at a faster rate than usual, also many locations in Alberta have had more snow in September than at any point in their past century of records. As long as this does not lead to a mid-continent trough, it should be a good sign for the winter to come.