Roger Smith

Table of forecasts for June 2020 FORECASTER ______________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA ___ wxallannj ___________________+2.1 _+2.3 _+2.2 __ +1.1 _+1.8 _+1.0 __ +1.5 _+1.3 _+0.9 RJay _______ (-2%) __________+2.0 _+2.0 _+2.0 __ +2.5 _+1.0 _+1.0 __ +2.0 _+2.0 _+0.5 Jakkelwx ___________________+1.5 _+1.2 _+0.5 __ +2.4 _+1.5 _+1.1 __ +2.3 _+2.0 _+0.3 Tom _______________________ +1.5 _+1.0 _+1.1 __ +0.9 _+1.0 _+1.5 __ +1.5 _+1.8 _+1.1 Scotty Lightning ____________+1.5 _+1.0 _+1.0 __ +1.0 _+1.5 _+1.5 __ +1.0 _+1.0 _+0.5 BKViking ___________________+1.4 _+1.0 _+1.5 __ +1.5 _+1.5 _+1.3 __ +1.1 _+1.6 _+1.3 ___ Consensus _____________ +1.4 _+1.0 _+1.1 __ +1.2 _+1.5 _+1.0 __ +1.5 _+1.6 _+0.4 hudsonvalley21 ____________ +1.3 _+1.1 _+1.4 __ +0.6 _+1.7 _+1.5 __ +1.8 _+2.1 _+1.9 Roger Smith ________________+1.3 _+1.0 _+0.5 __ +0.7 _+1.0 _+1.0 __ +2.5 _+2.5 __0.0 wxdude64 __ (-1%) _________ +1.3 _+0.4 _+0.1 __ +1.3 _+1.8 _+0.9 __ --0.3 _+0.8 _--0.6 RodneyS ___________________ +1.1 _+0.7 _+1.3 __ +1.9 _+0.6 _+1.0 __ +3.9 _+2.2 _--0.5 DonSutherland.1 ___________ +0.5 _+0.3 _+0.8 __ +0.8 _+0.2 _--0.3 __ +1.5 _+1.2 _--0.5 ___ Normal __________________0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __0.0 ___ 0.0 __0.0 __ 0.0 Brian5671 __ (-2%) _________ --0.5 __ 0.0 __0.0 __ +1.0 _+2.5 _+1.0 __ +0.5 _+0.5 __0.0 __________________________________________________________________________ forecasts color coded for warmest and coldest. Consensus is median of 12 forecasts (mean of 6th, 7th ranked). Normal is also colder than forecasts for ORD, ATL and PHX, tied coldest for NYC, BOS. (note edit on June 23 was to correct out of order predictions for DEN, PHX ... some posts had them out of order and I just noticed this doing the seasonal max contest)

Four seasons contest update, Spring totals and points with winter points added _ note points structure amended with more forecasters now regularly entering, I have given the minimum of one point to all for winter 2019-20. _ points based on 10 for first, then 7 for second, on down to 1 point for 8th to end of the scoring, three contests must be entered to qualify. FORECASTER ___________ Winter points ____ Spring totals ____ Spring points _____ TOTAL POINTS RodneyS _________________________ 10 ____________ 1726 _____________ 6 ____________ 16 DonSutherland 1 ___________________5 ____________ 1899 ____________ 10 ____________ 15 hudsonvalley21 ____________________4 ____________ 1786 _____________ 7 ____________ 11 wxallannj _________________________ 7 _____________1557 _____________ 3 ____________ 10 ______ Consensus _________________ 5 ____________ 1653 _____________ 5 ____________ 10 BKViking __________________________ 6 ____________ 1545 _____________ 2 _____________ 8 Tom _______________________________3 ____________ 1598 _____________ 4 _____________ 7 RJay _______________________________1 ____________ 1643 _____________ 5 _____________ 6 Scotty Lightning ___________________ 2 ____________ 1458 _____________ 1 _____________ 3 wxdude64 _________________________ 1 ____________ 1469 _____________ 1 _____________ 2 Roger Smith _______________________ 1 ____________ 1473 _____________ 1 _____________ 2 Brian5671 _________________________ 1 ____________ 1532 _____________ 1 _____________ 2 _________ Normal __________________ 1 ____________ 1404 ______________1 _____________ 2 _________________________________________________________

Let's say seasonal max by June 15th, if you wish to enter just add them in.

We have relaxed the late penalties this year, so those won't cost you much at all guys. ... Will replace this with a table of entries later on, I think all the regular entrants have checked in.

Thanks for entries so far, will leave this open for more entries until June 15th and you can edit any entries you've made without notice, I won't be recording any predictions until I declare the contest closed. Since 95% of years have a max after that date and often a month or two after it, I can't see that people will gain much advantage but we'll see.

+1.3 __ +1.0 __ +0.5 __ +0.7 __ +1.0 __ +1.0 __ +2.5 __ +2.5 __ 0.0 102 __ 100 __ 101 ____ 99 ___ 103 ___ 107 ___ 107 __ 120 __ 96

< < < < < ........ <<<< ---- ====== Annual Scoring (Jan-May) 2020 ====== ---- >>>> .......> > > > > Numbers in red denote highest cumulative scores for each of nine locations. Numbers in bold black type denote highest subtotals for regions. FORECASTER ______________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__ c/e __DEN_PHX_SEA__west ___ TOTAL RodneyS ___________________370_ 320_344 __1034 __363_289_296 __948 __1982 __372_340_284_ 996 ____2978 Don Sutherland.1 ___________296 _296_308 __ 900 __351_270_304 __ 925 __1825 __ 272_318_296__886 ____2711 hudsonvalley21 ____________245 _246 _307 __ 798 __282 _266_297 __ 845 __1643 __301_401_279__981 ____2624 RJay ______________________ 314 _309_267 __ 890 __247 _252 _295 __ 794 __1684 __298_333_264__895 ____2579 wxallannj __________________268 _276 _299 __ 843 __255 _257 _318 __ 830 __1673 __282_350_266__898 ____2571 ___ Consensus _____________248 _234 _299 __ 781__261 _245_320 __ 826 __1607 __286_380_276__942 _____2549 Brian5671 _________________ 313 _301 _285 __ 899 __184 _284_301 __ 769 __1668 __187_338_312__837 ____2505 Tom _______________________ 248 _236 _264 __ 748__229 _284 _283__ 796 __1544 __ 263_380_261__904 ____2448 BKViking ___________________210 _208 _255 __ 673__290 _184 _302__ 776 __1449 __299_392_307_ 998 ____2447 Scotty Lightning ____________136 _118 _188 __ 442 __234 _235_350__ 819 __1261 __226 _374_326__926 ____2187 wxdude64 __________________168 _158 _191 __ 517__200 _215 _325__ 740 __1257 __ 308 _336_211__855 ____2112 ___ Normal _________________130 _108 _164 __ 402 __224 _214 _246__ 684 __1086 __218_348_ 306__872 ____1958 Roger Smith ________________194__185 _252 __ 631 __221 _311_244__ 776 __1407 __208 _178_134__520 ____1927 JakkelWx _ (3/5) ____________ 84 __ 75 _158 __ 317 __155 _ 95 _212 __ 462 __ 779 ___162 _220 _ 80__462 ____1241 yoda _ (2/5) _________________64 __ 43 __ 16 __ 123 __ 18_118 _125 __ 261 __ 384 __ 71 _161_ 70 __ 302 _____ 686 rclab _ (1/5) _________________05 __ 00 __ 00 __ 005 __ 00 _ 11 _ 24 __ 035 __ 040 ___ 56 _ 88 _ 66 __ 210 _____ 250 dwave _ (1/5) _______________ 72 __ 75 __ 48 __ 195 __ 12 _ 25 _ 10 __ 047 __ 242 ___ 16 _ 34 _ 00 __ 050 _____ 292 Maxim _ (1/5) _______________00 __ 00 __ 00 __ 000 __ 00 _ 20 _ 46 __ 066 __ 066 ___ 32 _ 50 _ 34 __ 116 _____ 182 Rhino16 _ (1/5) ______________00 __ 05 __ 20 __ 025 __ 00 _ 13 _ 30 __ 043 __ 068 ___ 04 _ 52 _ 54 __ 110 _____ 178 ============================================================================== Extreme forecast standings 36 of 45 forecasts so far have qualified for an extreme forecast award for the warmest forecast(s), 23 for warmest and 13 for coldest. FORECASTER ____ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _ Apr _ May etc ___ Standings to date Brian 5671 _______ 4-0 __ 1-0 __ 3-1 __ 1-0 __ 1-0 _______10 - 1 RodneyS _________ 2-0 __ 3-0 __ 0-1 __ ---- __ 2-0 ________ 7 - 1 Roger Smith ______ ---- __ ---- __ 1-0 __ 4-2 __ 1-0 ________ 6 - 2 RJay _____________ ---- __ ---- __ 3-0 __ ---- __ ---- _________ 3 - 0 Scotty Lightning __ 2-0 __ 0-0 __ ---- __ 1-0 __ ---- ________3 - 0 DonSutherland1___0-0 __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ ---- _______ 3 - 0 Normal ___________1-0 __ 0-1 __ ---- __ 1-0 __ ---- ________ 2 - 1 Tom _____________ 1-0 __ 0-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ 1-0 ________ 2 - 0 RClab ____________ 2-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- _________ 2 - 0 yoda _____________ 0-0 __ 1-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- _________1 - 0 wxdude64 ________ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ 1-0 __ ---- _________ 1 - 0 Jakkelwx _________ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ 1-0 _________ 1 - 0 ================================================================================ BEST SCORES -- Totals for January to May Forecasters are listed in same order as annual points standings. Ties are possible which is why some locations have more than two best scores, also, if Normal or consensus achieve a top score, the actual forecaster with high score gets an award also. FORECASTER ______________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA__west___Months RodneyS ___________________ 2 ___ 1 ___ 2 ____ 2 ____ 2 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 2 ____ 2 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 2 _____ 3 _ Jan, Feb, May DonSutherland.1 ____________0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 2 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 _____ 1 _ Mar, Apr hudsonvalley21 _____________0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 RJay _______________________ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 _____ 0 wxallannj ___________________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 ___ Consensus ______________0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 Brian5671 __________________ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 0 _____ 0 Tom ________________________0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 BKViking ___________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 _____ 0 Scotty Lightning ____________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 0 _____ 0 wxdude64 __________________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 _____ Normal _______________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 _____ 1 ___ Apr Roger Smith ________________ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 Jakkelwx ___________________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 RClab _______________________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 _____ 0

Two in May already -- has to at least tie a record? ... Seasonal forecast thread is open, simplified format this year, no big amount of work required, just your seasonal numbers.

Hello, hoping all of you are well or close approximations, I am doing fine but got way behind in my work on several fronts, so this is a bit late being posted. As usual we will be predicting anomalies for DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA in F deg relative to 1981-2010, and you can add your ideas about 2020 seasonal maxima for those locations for a mini-contest. I will post something in a couple of days, haven't had time to check out any guidance all week. It is turning hot here finally (after weeks of drizzly n/n dross). Take care and stay well. (hurricane forecast contest over in the tropical dead zone too)

Final scoring for May 2020 FORECASTER __________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH_cent_c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA__west __ TOTALS __ Anomalies _ (31d) ___--2.2 _--2.1 _--1.1 ___________ +0.8 _--1.2 _+1.1 ____ ___ _____ +2.5_ +4.1 _+3.3 RodneyS ________________ 90 _ 92 _ 98 __ 280 __ 36 _ 82 _ 90 _ 208 _ 488 __ 90 _ 86 _ 62 __ 238 _____ 726 Brian5671 _______________76 _ 88 _ 82 __ 246 __ 84 _ 56 _ 82 _ 222 _ 468 __ 90 _ 58 _ 74 __ 222 _____ 690 DonSutherland1 _________ 64 _ 78 _ 98 __ 240 __ 64 _ 66 _ 96 _ 226 _ 466 __ 72 _ 74 _ 54 __ 200 _____ 666 hudsonvalley21 _________ 70 _ 74 _ 96 __ 240 __ 60 _ 58 _ 94 _ 212 _ 452 __ 84 _ 68 _ 60 __ 212 _____ 664 wxdude64 _______________78 _ 84 _ 90 __ 252 __ 46 _ 60 _ 98 _ 204 _ 456 __ 96 _ 60 _ 42 __ 198 _____ 654 Tom ____________________ 88 _ 96 _ 84 __ 268 __ 40 _ 94 _ 88 _ 222 _ 490__ 60 _ 42 _ 52 __ 154 _____ 644 ___ Consensus ___________64 _ 70 _ 94 __ 228 __ 62 _ 58 _ 98 _ 218 _ 446 __ 78 _ 58 _ 54 __ 190 _____ 636 wxallannj ________________64 _ 68 _ 90 __ 222 __ 52 _ 60 _ 92 _ 204 _ 426 __ 74 _ 58 _ 64 __ 196 _____ 622 BKViking ________________ 46 _ 48 _ 74 __ 168 __ 94 _ 32 _100_ 226 _ 394__100 _58 _ 70 __ 228 _____ 622 RJay ____________________ 56 _ 58 _ 78 __ 192 __ 64 _ 56 _ 78 _ 198 _ 390 __ 80_ 48 _ 54 __ 182 _____ 572 JakkelWx ________________44 _ 54 _ 88 __ 186 __ 98 _ 36 _ 90 _ 224 _ 410 __ 72 _ 46 _ 24 __ 142 _____ 552 Scotty Lightning _________ 36 _ 48 _ 78 __ 162 __ 84 _ 56 _ 92 _ 232 _ 394 __ 50 _ 38 _ 54 __ 142 _____ 536 ___ Normal ______________ 56 _ 58 _ 78 __ 192 __ 84 _ 76 _ 78 _ 238 _ 430 __ 50 _ 18 _ 34 __ 102 _____ 532 Roger Smith _____________ 62 _ 68 _ 94 __ 224 __ 64 _ 96 _ 64 _ 224 _ 448 __ 10 _ 22 _ 34 __ 066 _____ 514 ___________________________________________________________ Extreme forecast report (provisional) _ 6 of 9 currently qualify (3 cold, 3 warm) DCA _ RodneyS (coldest forecast -1.7) has a win here with the outcome -2.2. NYC _ Tom (coldest forecast -1.9) has a win as the outcome was -2.1. BOS _ No extreme forecast projected at -1.1, high score going to tied fourth lowest forecasts. ORD _ Jakkelwx has a win with warmest forecast (+0.7) as ORD settled at +0.8. ATL _ Roger Smith (coldest forecast -1.0) has a win with the final value -1.2. IAH _ No extreme forecast projected, anomaly (+1.1) is near consensus. DEN _ No extreme forecast as DEN finished equal to third warmest forecast (+2.5) and would have qualified at +2.8. RodneyS, Brian5671 would have shared a win. For a moment I considered a shared loss but extreme forecast is only assessed when high score is either extreme or second extreme, had they not been tied (+3.0) this would be more evident. PHX _ RodneyS (warmest forecast +3.4) will win here as PHX at +4.1 or higher. This high score also removed scoring boost protection from the field, so not just a win but like a no-hitter. The second highest forecast (DonS) was +2.8 which also scored well. Hudsonvalley21 had +2.5. SEA _ Brian5671 (warmest forecast +2.0) has a win as the final value is +3.3 despite a cool finish (month had been close to +4.0 earlier). This was the only location where we failed to break 80 for top score.

Prince Frederick laid down his crown and his ermine robes, and wandered off to who knows where, promising to return next winter. That could be 2038 the way things were going the past two so-called winters. Meanwhile he asked me to defend the realm (which I won't due to a nasty combination of inability and lack of funding) and to start a summer heat forecast contest, which I think is the only real reason for this post. Your challenge, should you choose to accept it, is to predict the highest temperatures to be observed at each of (you guessed it) BWI, DCA, IAD and SLC just kidding RIC. You can add SLC if you want, choose any number between 99 and 101 and you'll be right. Wonderful scenery, non-challenging climate they have round Utah, I would go and tell you more but they won't let me in because of some cough going around. Anyway, here's my opening salvo in this contest, torn between the idea that the cold spell in May guarantees a scorcher, or just possibly is a sign of some long awaited return to the climate of the 1850s. Fat chance of that, so I will go with BWI _ 103 DCA _ 103 IAD _ 101 RIC _ 102 and make the bold prediction that I will not be dead last, or dead, or last, but ya never know. The real deadline is not T384 but whenever we have a nice turnout and I spot anything on the model runs that looks like potential action in this contest. Let's say it won't close before June 10th end of day, but could go a few days past that. And once again I for one (insert verb of choice) my Mid-Atl overlords from my distant outpost beyond the hills. Get a 10% discount by mentioning "lack of contrails" in your post.

Here's the annual "hurricane forecast contest" with a simplified format compared to other recent years, just the seasonal count is required this year, no monthly details. You can add your thoughts about that of course. The contest remains open to mid-June as the June monthly count won't be all that big a deal-breaker. Keep in mind that with Arthur's brief reign of slight disruption the count is already 1/0/0. My entry will be 20/13/7 so quite an active year and I suspect the main focus of activity may be the east coast for a change. That's not to say the usual areas of activity won't see their fair share, but I am expecting some fairly strong storms to develop in the Atlantic near the Carolinas possibly impacting the mid-Atlantic states more often than we've seen in several years. Post your forecasts and discussions ...

(Possibly) Final report on Snowfall contest While some chance remains for further snowfalls at DEN, this could be the final report too ... see comments at bottom for potential for any changes in the standings shown in part two of these tables (part one being your forecasts). FORECASTER _________________DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ DTW _ BUF____ DEN _ SEA _ BTV ___ Snowfall to date (May 15) ___ 0.6 __ 4.8 _ 15.8 ___ 34.8 __43.7 _ 69.2 ___ 57.6 __ 0.7 _ 69.7 Tom __________________________ 27.6 _ 48.1 _ 59.8 ___ 44.5 _ 39.8 _ 97.6 ___ 68.6 __ 4.8 _ 85.1 wxallannj _____________________ 22.4 _ 33.5 _ 44.7 ___ 38,9 _ 38.8 _ 69.6 ___ 41.3 __ 7.2 _ 79.4 wxdude64 ____________________ 20.6 _ 42.5 _ 54.1 ___ 50.6 _ 52.7 _100.9 ___ 69.8 __ 9.6 _ 97.4 BKViking ______________________19.0 _ 36.0 _ 51.0 ___ 42.0 _ 29.0 _ 84.0 ___ 55.0 __ 8.0 _ 77.0 hudsonvalley21 _______________ 15.8 _ 31.2 _ 47.7 ___ 42.2 _ 52.6 _ 91.3 ___ 61.1 __10.4 _ 88.8 Roger Smith __________________ 15.5 _ 38.5 _ 55.8 ___ 60.5 _ 60.2 _102.5 ___109.7__ 7.5 _110.5 RodneyS ______________________14.4 _ 25.1 _ 40.0 ___ 35.0 _ 38.0 _100.0 ___ 80.0 __ 4.0 _ 88.0 Scotty Lightning _______________12.0 _ 24.0 _ 36.0 ___ 48.0 _ 67.0 _105.0 ___45.0 __14.0 _ 90.0 DonSutherland1 _______________10.0 _ 23.5 _ 36.0 ___ 30.0 _ 35.0 _110.0 ___ 83.0 __ 6.5 _ 90.0 ___ consensus (mean) _________ 17.5 _ 33.6 _ 47.2 ____ 44.1 _ 45.9 __95.7 ___ 68.2 __ 8.0 _ 94.0 ___ % to date ___________________ 3.5 __ 14 ___ 34 ______ 79 ___ 96 ___ 73 _____ 84 ___ 8.7 __ 75 _________________________________________________________________________________________________ It is quite unusual, I believe, for both DCA and SEA to have an essentially snowless winter, usually it would be one but not the other. Current scoring for the snowfall contest Unless shown in red, all these departures are errors on the higher side, and can be reduced if any further snowfall occurs at any locations (now only marginally possible for DEN and perhaps the inland northeast). FORECASTER _________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ DTW _ BUF __ DEN _ SEA _ BTV ____ TOTAL wxallannj _____________________ 21.8 _ 28.7 _ 28.9 ____ 4.1 __ 4.9 __ 0.4 ___ 16.3 __ 6.5 __ 9.7 ___ 121.3 BKViking ______________________18.4 _ 31.2 _ 35.2 ____ 7.2 __14.7 _ 14.8 ____2.6 __ 7.3 __ 7.3 ___ 138.7 RodneyS ______________________13.8 _ 20.3 _ 24.2 ____ 0.2 __ 5.7 _ 30.8 ____ 22.4 __3.3 _ 18.3 ___ 139.0 hudsonvalley21 _______________ 15.2 _ 26.4 _ 31.9 ____ 7.4 __ 8.9 _ 22.1 _____3.5 __ 9.7 _ 19.1 ___ 144.2 DonSutherland1 ________________9.4 _ 18.7 _ 20.2 ____ 4.8 __ 8.7 __ 40.8 ___ 25.4 __ 5.8 _ 20.3 ___ 154.1 ___ consensus (mean) _________ 16.9 _ 28.8 _ 31.4 _____ 9.3 __ 2.2 __26.5 ____ 10.6 __ 7.3 _ 24.3 ___ 157.3 Scotty Lightning _______________11.4 _ 19.2 _ 20.2 ___ 13.2 _ 23.3 _ 35.8 ____12.6__13.3 _ 20.3 ___ 169.3 Tom __________________________ 27.0 _ 43.3 _ 44.0 ____ 9.7 __ 3.9 _ 28.4 ____ 11.0 __ 4.1 _ 15.4 ___ 186.8 wxdude64 ____________________ 20.0 _ 37.7 _ 38.3 ___ 15.8 __ 9.0 _ 31.7 ___ 12.2 __ 8.9 _ 27.7 ___ 201.3 Roger Smith __________________ 14.9 _ 33.7 _ 40.0 ___ 25.7 _ 16.5 _ 34.3 ____ 52.1__ 6.8 _ 40.8 ___ 263.8 __________________________________________________________________________________ (Apr 1st) _ Standings are subject to change, especially if DEN picks up more snow, as the contest leader (wxallannj) will be accumulating error with additional DEN snowfall, and second place BKV has only 1.1" left before starting to do the same; third and fourth place Rodney and DonSutherland1 have some snow left to give -- Rodney can overtake the leader if 12" or more should fall at DEN. Otherwise it would appear that a few more inches at say BTV or ORD-DTW would make no great difference to the outcome. So we await further developments at DEN. (Apr 15th) _ DEN has picked up 1.8" this month, BUF 0.9" and DTW 0.2" -- RodneyS now needs DEN snowfall of 10.5" although any further snow at DTW adds a bit to the task. (May 4th) _ ORD and DTW both added 4.7" since last report. For the three leaders, that generally meant no significant change as they had enough to absorb that addition at ORD and were already accumulating for DTW (wxallannj gained slightly as he was not quite over the limit for DTW.) The Midwest snow did move hudsonvalley21 past DonSutherland1 in the contest standings. Since DEN has added only 1.9" since last report above, given the above slight differential, that reduces the amount needed by RodneyS now to 8.8" to catch wxallannj. RodneyS has moved to within 0.3" of second place BKV who is also now accumulating error points at DEN, so a further 0.2" would change those positions. BUF added 1.9", BOS 0.7" and BTV 0.1" -- these reduced all forecaster total errors equally. (May 16th) _ Since the last report, DTW added 0.5" BUF 0.3" and BTV 0.1" (NYC trace !) ... these amounts leave the contest in the same situation awaiting any further snow which now is almost certain to be confined to DEN (if any falls, the current model run has no really strong indications of any). I will be posting this summary in the May thread and any further edits or comments will be found there.

As I posted elsewhere on the forum, have been updating the Toronto (city) weather records and noted that the first record low minimum in May since 1923 was obtained on the 9th with 28 F (previous record 29 F in 1850). The maximum of 42 F on the 8th failed to beat the mark set in 1947 (41 F) and on the 9th 44 F missed the 1966 record by 1 deg also. The location saw six consecutive days with lowest temperatures since 1967 (an arbitrary division in my research data created by dates in a publication I used to generate the daily records against which I have checked all available internet historical data since then). The air temperatures of -0.4 (11th) and 0.0 (12th) represent latest of season for converted to 31F and 32F since 1924 (for the 31F with 30 on 21st) and 1936 (for the 32F on 16th). Previous to that the frost season extends later and later with the smaller urban heat island in place, and eventually reaches its latest observation of June 10 in 1842 (a reading of 28F which is both the latest 32 or colder, and tied for June extreme with an earlier date in 1843). There was a reading of 34 F on May 24, 1956, and a report of snow at YYZ on night of May 25 to 26 1961. That snow failed to reach the downtown location (back in a time when this was a first order continually observing site) and the morning low was 37 F. Going back to early June 1945 there were snow flurries reported at Toronto downtown, only the second occasion with June traces of snow (the other being 1859). The latest 1.0" snowfall in the records was on 9th in 1923 (1.3"), and the latest 0.5" on 12th in 1966, with 0.2" on 15th of 1959 and the latest measurable amount 0.1" on 16th of 1884. After that daily records are all traces only and are quite infrequent. So this cold spell seems to be a benchmark event. I would be grateful for any thoughts about snow reports as my only guide for that now is snow depth reporting, the previous station listing both rain and snow amounts downtown ended operations in 2017. I assume that most of the 1.0 mm precip on May 8 was snow downtown, how about with the Sunday night into Monday event? That seemed more like either cold rain or melting snow at the location? Both 1966 and 1967 were very backward springs with unusually late leaf foliation, as I recall from reading my own high school era weather station west of Toronto, the trees were not fully in leaf until around the end of May those two years. I can also remember running at a track meet in Guelph ON in falling wet snow some time around the 10th of May in 1967, so if you had to choose one of those two summers to follow, I would say 1966 (a hot, dry summer) as opposed to 1967 (June was very warm and humid with excessive rainfalls, the rest of the summer rather cool). It was quite a contrast to the previous two years when May (1964,65) had well above normal temperatures and in both of those the weather turned quite chilly at the end of May into early June.

Updated anomaly tracker (look down way down) ... ____________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA _____________ (8d) __________ --3.4 _ --2.0 _ +0.3 __ --3.4 _ --1.5 _ +3.3 ___ +2.2 _ +7.9 _ +2.1 ____________ (15d) __________ --5.5 _ --4.5 _ --2.6 __ --3.9 _ --3.3 _ +1.0 ___ +0.3 _ +6.0 _ +5.0 ____________ (22d) __________ --4.4 _ --3.5 _ --2.3 __ --2.6 _ --2.5 _ +1.5 ___ +2.4 _ +3.8 _ +3.6 ____________ (p15d) ________ --5.0 _ --5.0 _ --4.0 __ --6.0 _ --3.0 _ +1.5 ___ +0.5 _ +5.0 _ +1.5 ____________ (p21d) ________ --3.5 _ --3.0 _ --2.0 __ --2.5 _ --2.0 _ +0.7 ____ 0.0 _ +3.5 _ +3.5 ____________ (p25d) ________ --3.0 _ --3.0 _ --3.0 __ --4.0 _ --2.5 _ +1.0 ____ 0.0 _ +3.5 _ +0.5 _16th_______ (p31d) ________--2.0 _ --2.0 _ --1.5 __ --1.5 _ --1.0 _ +0.5 ____ 0.0 _ +2.5 _ +2.5 _23rd_______ (p31d) ________ --3.0 _ --2.0 _ --1.0 __ --1.5 _ --1.5 _ +0.5 ___ +1.5_ +3.5 _ +3.0 _30th ______ (p 31 d) ________ --2.0 _--2.0 _ --1.0 __ +1.0 _--1.5 _ +0.5 ___ +2.5_ +3.5 _ +3.0 Final anomalies _____________--2.2 _--2.1 _ --1.1 __ +0.8_--1.2 _+1.1 ___+2.5 _+4.1 _+3.3 _(9th) _ Turning exceptionally cold in eastern regions with near record daytime cold reported today in Midwest, and a rain-snow mix from a clipper expected within a day or two, so the current falling anomalies will likely bottom out around -6 later this week then recover slightly by 15th. The second half of the month does not look much warmer relative to normal. West has been sizzling and while DEN likely to find itself in a frontal zone next week, warmth will continue in the southwest. Snowfall contest report was updated in the March thread, I will post it over here mid-week following any updates for ORD, DTW, BUF and BTV that may occur (nothing noted since May 4th update yet). (16th) _ As expected the anomalies dropped rapidly in eastern and central regions with a rebound on the 15th, but the pattern this coming week looks rather cool after the weekend and negatives may be preserved right to the end of the month in reduced form. The west will remain on the warm side but DEN is close enough to the jet stream boundary that I am holding the projection near normal with lots of variation expected. While SEA has been running quite warm, inland at my location we are probably just a slight amount above normal after 15 days. We only had one day here that exceeded 25 C (a week ago Saturday) and otherwise a lot of near normal temperatures recently. (23rd) _ Anomalies have remained unusually low in the east, not sure where the month ranks at U.S. locations but at Toronto it could be coldest May since 1997 or even 1967. In the west it has been generally quite warm to hot at times, and looks to remain that way (Denver will have some mixed results). Have updated the end of month provisionals and will post some preliminary scoring estimates based on those. No changes to snowfall anywhere since last report. DEN running out of time but season goes to June 30th. (30th) _ Most of the provisionals are doing okay but ORD has run warmer than expected and has been adjusted. Scoring for ORD will be adjusted in the provisional scoring. DCA and DEN also slightly adjusted. (June 1st) _ Final anomalies are now all posted overnight and scoring adjusted. Final values are color coded.

Table of forecasts for May 2020 FORECASTER ___________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA Scotty Lightning _________+1.0 _+0.5 __0.0 ___ 0.0 _+1.0 _+1.5 ____ 0.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 JakkelWx _______________ +0.6 _+0.2 _--0.5 __ +0.7 _+2.0 _+0.6 __ +1.1 _+1.4 _--0.5 BKViking ________________+0.5 _+0.5 _+0.2 __ +0.5 _+2.2 _+1.1 __ +2.5 _+2.0 _+1.8 ___ Normal ______________ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 RJay ____________________ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ___--1.0 _+1.0 __ 0.0 __ +1.5 _+1.5 _+1.0 Roger Smith ____________ --0.3 _--0.5 _--0.8 __ --1.0 _--1.0 _--0.7 __ --2.0 _+0.2 __0.0 wxallannj _______________ --0.4 _--0.5 _--0.6 __ --1.6 _+0.8 _+0.7 __ +1.2 _+2.0 _+1.5 ___ Consensus __________ --0.4 _--0.6 _--0.8 __ --1.1 _+0.9 _+1.0 __ +1.4 _+2.0 _+1.0 DonSutherland1 ________ --0.4 _--1.0 _--1.2 __ --1.0 _ +0.5 _+0.9 __ +1.1 _+2.8 _+1.0 hudsonvalley21 _________ --0.7 _--0.8 _--0.9 __ --1.2 _+0.9 _+1.4 __ +1.7 _+2.5 _+1.3 Brian5671 ______________ --1.0 _--1.5 _--2.0 ___ 0.0 _+1.0 _+2.0 __ +3.0 _+2.0 _+2.0 wxdude64 ______________ --1.1 _--1.3 _--1.6 __ --1.9 _+0.8 _+1.2 __ +2.3 _+2.1 _+0.4 Tom ____________________--1.6 _--1.9 _--1.9 __ --2.2 _--0.9 _+0.5 __ +0.5 _+1.2 _+0.9 RodneyS ________________--1.7 _--1.7 _--1.2 __ --2.4 _--0.3 _+1.6 __ +3.0 _+3.4 _+1.4 ___________________________________________________________ Very pleased not to have any late penalties this month ... consensus is the median of twelve forecasts, or the mean of sixth and seventh ranked forecast for each location (not including Normal). Color codes show the warmest and coldest forecasts for each location. Normal is colder for PHX than all forecasts. In a couple of days I will have an update on the snowfall contest placed in this thread; the most recent update about three weeks ago was edited into a post in the March thread. There has been a bit of snow\ at DEN since then.

< < < < < ........ <<<< ---- ====== Annual Scoring (Jan-Apr) 2020 ====== ---- >>>> .......> > > > > Numbers in red denote highest cumulative scores for each of nine locations. Numbers in bold black type denote highest subtotals for regions. Some late penalties in March were reduced (because of the April decision) and a few scores were adjusted in the March scoring tables. The increases were minor (5-12 points). It was not deemed necessary to adjust February and there were no late penalties in January. FORECASTER ______________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__ c/e __DEN_PHX_SEA__west ___ TOTAL RodneyS ___________________280_ 228_246 __ 754 __327_207_206 __ 740 __1494 __282_254_222__758 ____ 2252 Don Sutherland.1 ___________232 _218_210 __ 660 __287_204_208 __ 699 __1359 __ 200_244_242__686 ____2045 RJay ______________________ 258 _251_189 __ 698 __183 _196 _217 __ 596 __1294 __218_285_210__713 ____2007 hudsonvalley21 ____________175 _172 _211 __ 558 __222 _208_203 __ 633 __1191 __217 _333_219__769____1960 wxallannj __________________204 _208 _209 __ 621 __203 _197 _226 __ 626 __1247 __208_292_202__702 ____1949 ___ Consensus _____________184 _164 _205 __ 553__199 _187_222 __ 608 __1161 __208_322_222__752 _____1913 BKViking ___________________164 _160 _181 __ 505__196 _152 _202__ 550 __1055 __199_334_237__770 ____1825 Brian5671 _________________ 237 _213 _203 __ 653 __100 _228_219 __ 547 __1200 ___97_280_238__615 ____1815 Tom _______________________ 160 _140 _180 __ 480__189 _190 _195__ 574 __1054 __ 203_338_209__750 ____1804 Scotty Lightning ____________100 __ 70 _110 __ 280 __150 _179_258__ 587 __ 867 __ 176 _336_272__784 ____1651 wxdude64 __________________ 90 __ 74 __101 __ 265__154_155 _227__ 536 __ 801 __ 212 _276_169__657 ____1458 ___ Normal __________________74 __ 50 __ 86 __ 210 __140 _138 _168__ 446 __ 656 __168_330_ 272__770 ____1426 Roger Smith ________________132__117 _158 __ 407 __157 _215_180__ 552 __ 959 __198 _156_100__454 ____1413 JakkelWx _ (2/4) ____________ 40 __ 21 __ 70 __ 131 __ 57 _ 59 _122 __ 238 __ 369 __ 90 _174 _ 56 __ 320 _____ 689 yoda _ (2/4) _________________64 __ 43 __ 16 __ 123 __ 18_118 _125 __ 261 __ 384 __ 71 _161_ 70 __ 302 _____ 686 rclab _ (1/4) _________________05 __ 00 __ 00 __ 005 __ 00 _ 11 _ 24 __ 035 __ 040 ___ 56 _ 88 _ 66 __ 210 _____ 250 dwave _ (1/4) _______________ 72 __ 75 __ 48 __ 195 __ 12 _ 25 _ 10 __ 047 __ 242 ___ 16 _ 34 _ 00 __ 050 _____ 292 Maxim _ (1/4) _______________00 __ 00 __ 00 __ 000 __ 00 _ 20 _ 46 __ 066 __ 066 ___ 32 _ 50 _ 34 __ 116 _____ 182 Rhino16 _ (1/4) ______________00 __ 05 __ 20 __ 025 __ 00 _ 13 _ 30 __ 043 __ 068 ___ 04 _ 52 _ 54 __ 110 _____ 178 ============================================================================== Extreme forecast standings 30 of 36 forecasts so far have qualified for an extreme forecast award for the warmest forecast(s), 20 for warmest and 10 for coldest. FORECASTER ____ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _ Apr _ May etc ___ Standings to date Brian 5671 _______ 4-0 __ 1-0 __ 3-1 __ 1-0 __ ---- _______ 9 - 1 RodneyS _________ 2-0 __ 3-0 __ 0-1 __ ---- __ ---- ________ 5 - 1 Roger Smith ______ ---- __ ---- __ 1-0 __ 4-2 __ ---- ________ 5 - 2 RJay _____________ ---- __ ---- __ 3-0 __ ---- __ ---- _________ 3 - 0 Scotty Lightning __ 2-0 __ 0-0 __ ---- __ 1-0 __ ---- ________3 - 0 DonSutherland1___0-0 __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ ---- _______ 3 - 0 Normal ___________1-0 __ 0-1 __ ---- __ 1-0 __ ---- ________ 2 - 1 RClab ____________ 2-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- _________ 2 - 0 yoda _____________ 0-0 __ 1-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- _________1 - 0 Tom _____________ 1-0 __ 0-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- _________ 1 - 0 wxdude64 ________ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ 1-0 __ ---- _________ 1 - 0 ================================================================================ BEST SCORES -- Totals for January to April Forecasters are listed in same order as annual points standings. Ties are possible which is why some locations have more than two best scores, also, if Normal or consensus achieve a top score, the actual forecaster with high score gets an award also. FORECASTER ______________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA__west___Months RodneyS ___________________ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 2 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 2 ____ 2 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 _____ 2 _ Jan, Feb DonSutherland.1 ____________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 2 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 _____ 1 _ Mar, Apr RJay _______________________ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 _____ 0 hudsonvalley21 _____________0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 wxallannj ___________________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 ___ Consensus ______________0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 BKViking ___________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 _____ 0 Brian5671 __________________ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 _____ 0 Tom ________________________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 Scotty Lightning ____________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 0 _____ 0 wxdude64 __________________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 _____ Normal _______________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 _____ 1 ___ Apr Roger Smith ________________ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 yoda _______________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 RClab _______________________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 _____ 0

-0.3 _ -0.5 _ -0.8 __ -1.0 _ -1.0 _ -0.7 __ -2.0 _ +0.2 __ 0.0

Final Scoring for April 2020 BOS scores are now adjusted to the max 60 rule as top raw score was 50. The new distribution favors everyone but me so I have lodged a protest with myself which I plan to ignore. ... Normal score was adjusted to scale and on raw score was 30. NYC also finished colder than provisional and almost went the same way but I held on to 62 points there so no adjustments. ... Hudsonvalley21 late penalties are only 1 point where applied, those are marked with an asterisk (raw score was one higher) ... RJay had a 5% late penalty assigned as explained above in previous post. That leads to a separate line of final scoring with the raw scores partially hidden in the light orange type. FORECASTER _________DCA_NYC_BOS_east__ORD_ATL_IAH_cent__c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA _ west __ TOTAL ___ Normal ___________ 70 _ 46 _ 56^__ 172 __ 88 _ 92 _ 74 __ 254 _ 426 __ 76 _ 70 _ 60 __ 206 ____ 632 DonSutherland.1 ______60 _ 36 _ 55^__ 151 __ 92 _ 78 _ 84 __ 254 _ 405 __ 86 _ 74 _ 30 __ 190 ____ 595 Scotty Lightning ______ 50 _ 26 _ 45^__ 121 __ 68 _ 62 _ 96 __ 226 _ 347 __ 56 _100 _70 __ 226 ____ 573 hudsonvalley21 (-1%) _ 51*_ 30 _ 50^__ 131 __ 81*_73*_87*__ 241 _ 372 __ 69*_ 67*_51*__187_566-7= 559 Roger Smith __________ 80 _ 62 _60^__ 202 __ 68 _ 88 _ 44 __ 200 _ 402 __ 64 _ 40 _ 44 __ 148 ____ 550 Tom __________________ 48 _ 28 _ 45^__ 121 __ 78 _ 56 _ 76 __ 210 _ 331 __ 82 _ 76 _ 30 __ 188 ____ 519 RJay __________________40 _ 16 _ 25^__ 081 __ 88 _ 62 _ 94 __ 244 _ 325 __ 76 _ 70 _ 60 __ 206 _ 531 RJay ____ (-5%) ________38 _ 15 _ 24^__ 077 __ 84 _ 59 _ 89 __ 232 _ 309 __ 72 _ 67 _ 58 __ 197 ____ 506 ___ Consensus ________ 36 _ 16 _ 30^__ 082 __ 68 _ 48 _ 76 __ 192 _ 274 __ 76 _ 70 _ 44 __ 190 ____ 464 JakkelWx ______________12 _ 00 _ 30^__ 042 __ 50 _ 22 _ 74 __ 146 _ 188 __ 78 _ 86 _ 50 __ 214 ____ 402 RodneyS ______________ 34 _ 16 _ 35^__ 085 __ 74 _ 36 _ 36 __ 146 _ 231 __ 80 _ 66 _ 22 __ 168 ____ 399 BKViking ______________ 02 _ 00 _ 05^__ 007 __ 44 _ 12 _ 76 __ 132 _ 139 __ 66 _ 94 _ 80 __ 240 ____ 379 wxallannj ______________36 _ 14 _ 20^__ 070 __ 48 _ 48 _ 92 __ 188 _ 258 __ 52 _ 50 _ 14 __ 116 ____ 374 Brian5671 _____________00 _ 00 _ 15^__ 015 __ 28 _ 00 _ 46 __ 074 _ 089 __ 56 _ 90 _ 90 __ 236 ____ 325 wxdude64 _____________08 _ 00 _ 10^__ 018 __ 56 _ 30 _ 60 __ 146 _ 164 __ 98 _ 38 _ 08 __ 144 ____ 308 Maxim ________________ 00 _ 00 _ 00 __ 000 __ 00 _ 20 _ 46 __ 066 _ 066 __ 32 _ 50 _ 34 __ 116 ____ 182 _____________________________________________________________________________ Extreme forecast report Going cold gave your host four extreme forecast awards (DCA, NYC, BOS, and ATL) with Normal sharing the ATL award. At ORD DonS has the high score with second coldest forecast for a win, Roger Smith takes a loss here. IAH ended up a little closer to our consensus and won't be an extreme forecast this month. DEN was running as cold as -4 for quite a while then warmed up big time, so wxdude64 has a win and Roger Smith another loss. PHX has verified right on the money for warmest forecast (Scotty Lightning at +1.5). SEA has warmed considerably against our expectations and that gives Brian5671 a win with warmest forecast still a half degree below the outcome. So the summary would be 4-2 for Roger Smith on the month, and wins for Normal, DonS, SL, wxdude64 and Brian5671. ________________________________________ Annual update follows, after revision of some penalized scoring in March. DonS has moved up several spots and RodneyS has a much smaller lead than last month, some shuffling of the deck below that.

In my case, it's the broken clock syndrome. Figures that nature would waste below normal on April after that sad excuse for a winter though ... Have decided the following on the late penalty situation. Just happy that we seem to have survived the pandemic, so will be reducing earlier issued late penalties and just tapping RJay lightly for his entry at the new max of 5%. Former late penalties will be basically cut in half with the same max. I can edit the scoring in earlier threads to reflect this (no penalties were that much bigger anyway so won't be much of an adjustment of scores already posted) ... I really wanted to go with the no penalty sentiment but then I have these pre-existing late penalties already applied, seemed a bit too lenient to say zero. But I realize that RJay made a forecast under health duress and probably without much influence from guidance. So I needed to balance all of those considerations. Moving forward, I will just set the late penalties a bit more leniently but they will be applied where necessary. The new standard will be 1% for every 8 hours late up to 2 days (8%) then 1% added per hour. Hope people think this is a fair solution for everyone. Scoring to follow, updating the anomalies tonight (a few posts back now).

Predict the temperature anomalies for these locations for May 2020 (F deg rel to 1981-2010) ... DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Good luck and good health !!

After the first four weeks ... _________________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA ____ (7d) ________________+3.9_ +4.0 _+1.4 __ +5.9 _+4.6 _+1.9 __ +0.3 _+1.7 _--2.1 ____ (14d) _______________+3.2_ +2.2 _+1.1 __ +3.4 _+3.1 _+2.0 __ --3.1 _--1.4 _+0.2 ____ (21d) _______________--0.1_ --0.6 _--1.3 __ --0.1 _+0.5 _+1.1 __ --4.0 _--1.5 _+1.8 ____ (28d) _______________--1.6_ --2.6 _--3.3 __ --0.4 _--0.1 _+1.5 __ --1.8 _+0.8 _+1.9 ____ (p14d) _____________ +1.0_ +1.0 _--1.0 __ +1.5 _+1.5 _+0.5 __ --2.0 _+0.5 _--1.0 ____ (p21d) _____________ +1.5_ +1.0 _+0.2 __ +1.0 _+1.5 _+1.0 __ --2.5 _--0.5 __ 0.0 ____ (p24d) ______________ 0.0__ 0.0 _--2.0 __ --1.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ --1.5 _+0.5 __ 0.0 15th__ (p30d) ___________+0.3__0.0 _--1.0 __ --1.5 _ +0.5 _+0.5 __ --1.5 _+0.5 _ +0.5 22nd__ (p30d) ___________+0.3__0.0 _--1.0 __ --1.0 _ +0.5 _+1.0 __ --2.5 _--0.5 _ +1.2 29th__ (p30d) ___________--1.0_--2.0 _--3.0 __ --0.5 _ --0.5 _+2.0 __ --1.0 _+1.5 _ +2.5 Final anomalies _________--1.5_--2.7 _--3.5 __ --0.6 _--0.4 _+1.3 __ --1.2 _+1.5 _ +2.0 (8th) _ The trends in the coming week appear fairly cold relative to normal, and this remains the case to some extent in the longer range although departures do not look very great. Quite a few of the locations are slowly trending towards a near normal overall outcome after this faintly warm start, more or less the afterglow of the warm March we just finished. (15th) _ This past week saw a slight drop in the earlier anomalies, one very warm day on Monday 13th in the east prevented a larger slide there. It continues to look rather cold in eastern and central regions both this coming week and later in the month. Will stay with the original idea for the 24th as end of month anomaly projection with slight changes. The snowfall contest has been updated in the March thread. Around the end of the month I will move the post over here, contest runs until Denver stops snowing which is often mid-May. It can still affect the outcome of this contest. (22nd) _ Anomalies have dropped to near or even below zero in some cases, but the coming week looks a bit closer to average, and I have only adjusted the earlier end of month projections slightly. Will perhaps post some preliminary scoring soon. (29th) _ Warmth in western regions has reversed some anomalies there, but east locked into rather cold weather for a while yet. (May 1st) _ Posting final anomalies overnight and updating the scoring below. All are now confirmed. Scoring is more or less complete (just checking some updated totals).

Thanks, RJay, as a friend of the contest in many ways, and in view of extenuating circumstances which you explained to me privately, I am going to post your forecast with just a small time penalty that would protect the field given that you had a bit of extra information by posting time. But I won't apply the entire penalty. As I mentioned, anyone else who (in coming months) has more pressing concerns at forecast time should feel free to seek a partial waiver on late penalties. I am just going to say -x% for now and see what I think is fair after assessing a few things that aren't in my head right now, such as trends in modelling since 1st, and differential from consensus in the forecast submitted. Anyone who would like to offer an opinion on this, would prefer in private message.

Forecasts for April, 2020 FORECASTER _________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA Maxim ________________ +4.5 _+4.2 _+4.0 ___+5.9 _+3.6 _+4.0 __ +2.2 _--1.0 _--1.3 Brian5671 _____________+4.0 _+3.5 _+2.5 ___+3.0 _+5.0 _+4.0 __ +1.0 _+1.0 _+1.5 BKViking ______________+3.4 _+3.3 _+2.8 ___+2.2 _+4.0 _+2.5 __ +0.5 _+1.2 _+1.0 wxdude64 _____________+3.1 _+2.9 _+2.6 ___+1.6 _+3.1 _+3.3 __ --1.1 _--1.6 _--2.6 JakkelWx _____________ +2.9 _+3.0 _+1.3 ___+1.9 _+3.5 _+2.7 __ --0.1 _+0.8 _--0.5 RodneyS ______________ +1.8 _+1.5 _+1.2 ___+0.7 _+2.8 _+4.5 __ --0.2 _--0.2 _--1.9 ___ Consensus ________ +1.7 _+1.5 _+1.3 ___+1.0 _+2.2 _+2.5 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 _--0.8 wxallannj _____________ +1.7 _+1.6 _+1.9 ___+2.0 _+2.2 _+1.7 __ +1.2 _--1.0 _--2.3 RJay ___ (-5%) ________ +1.5 _+1.5 _+1.5 ____ 0.0 _+1.5 _+1.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 Tom __________________ +1.1 _+0.9 _+1.0 ___+0.5 _+1.8 _+2.5 __ --0.3 _+0.3 _--1.5 Scotty Lightning ______ +1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___+1.0 _+1.5 _+1.5 __ +1.0 _+1.5 _+0.5 hudsonvalley21 (-1%) _ +0.9 _+0.8 _+0.7 ___+0.3 _+0.9 _+0.7 __ +0.3 _--0.1 _--0.4 DonSutherland.1 ______ +0.5 _+0.5 _+0.2 ___--1.0 _+0.7 _+0.5 __ --0.5 _+0.2 _--1.5 ___ Normal _____________0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 Roger Smith __________ --0.5 _--0.8 _--1.0 ___ --2.2 _--1.0 _--1.5 __--3.0 _--1.5 _--0.8 ______________________________________________________________________ Color codes reveal the warmest and coldest forecasts for each location.

< < < < < ........ <<<< ---- ====== Annual Scoring (Jan-Mar) 2020 ====== ---- >>>> .......> > > > > Numbers in red denote highest cumulative scores for each of nine locations. Numbers in bold black type denote highest subtotals for regions. FORECASTER ______________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__ c/e __DEN_PHX_SEA__west ___ TOTAL RodneyS ___________________246_212 _211 __ 669 __253_171_170 __ 594 __1263 __202_188_200__590 ____ 1853 wxallannj __________________168 _194 _189 __ 551 __155 _149 _134 __ 438 __ 989 __156_242_188__586_____1575 RJay _______________________220 _236_165 __ 621 __ 99 _ 137 _128 __ 364 __ 985 __ 146 _218_152__516 ____1501 Brian5671 _________________ 237 _213 _188 __ 638 __ 72 _ 228_173 __ 473 __1111 ___ 41 _190_148__379 ____1490 Don Sutherland.1 ___________172 _182_155 __ 509 __195 _126_124 __ 445 __ 954 __ 114 _170 _212__496 ____1450 ___ Consensus ______________148 _148 _175 __ 471__131 _139_146 __ 416 __ 887 __132 _252_178__562 _____1449 BKViking ___________________162 _160 _176 __ 498__152 _140 _126__ 418 __ 916 __ 133 _240_157__530 ____1446 hudsonvalley21 _____________124 _142 _161 __ 427__141 _135_116__ 392 __ 819 __148 _266_168__582 ____1401 Tom _______________________ 112 _112 _135 __ 359__111 _134_119__ 364 __ 723 __ 121 _262_179__562 ____1285 wxdude64 __________________ 82 __ 74 __ 91 __ 247 __ 98 _125 _167__ 390 __ 637 __ 114 _238_161__513 ____1150 Scotty Lightning _____________50 __ 44 __ 65 __ 159 __ 82 _117_162__ 361 __ 520 __ 120 _236_202__558 ____1078 Roger Smith ________________ 52 __ 55 __ 98 __ 205 __ 89 _127_136 __ 352 __ 557 __ 134 _116 _ 56__306 _____ 863 ___ Normal __________________04 __ 04 __ 30 __ 038 __ 52 _ 46 _ 94 __ 192 __ 230 __ 92 _ 260_ 212__ 564 _____ 794 yoda _ (2/3) _________________64 __ 43 __ 16 __ 123 __ 18_118 _125 __ 261 __ 384 __ 71 _161_ 70 __ 302 _____ 686 JakkelWx _ (1/3) ____________ 28 __ 21 __ 40 __ 089 __ 07 _ 37 _ 48 __ 092 __ 181 ___ 12 _ 88 _ 06 __ 106 _____ 287 rclab _ (1/3) _________________05 __ 00 __ 00 __ 005 __ 00 _ 11 _ 24 __ 035 __ 040 ___ 56 _ 88 _ 66 __ 210 _____ 250 dwave _ (1/3) _______________ 72 __ 75 __ 48 __ 195 __ 12 _ 25 _ 10 __ 047 __ 242 ___ 16 _ 34 _ 00 __ 050 _____ 292 Rhino16 _ (1/3) ______________00 __ 05 __ 20 __ 025 __ 00 _ 13 _ 30 __ 043 __ 068 ___ 04 _ 52 _ 54 __ 110 _____ 178 ============================================================================== Extreme forecast standings 22 of 27 forecasts so far have qualified for an extreme forecast award for the warmest forecast(s), 18 for warmest and 4 for coldest. FORECASTER ____ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _ Apr _ May etc ___ Standings to date Brian 5671 _______ 4-0 __ 1-0 __ 3-1 __ ---- __ ---- ________ 8 - 1 RodneyS _________ 2-0 __ 3-0 __ 0-1 __ ---- __ ---- ________ 5 - 1 RJay _____________ ---- __ ---- __ 3-0 __ ---- __ ---- _________ 3 - 0 Scotty Lightning __ 2-0 __ 0-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- _________2 - 0 RClab ____________ 2-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- _________ 2 - 0 DonSutherland1___0-0 __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ ---- __ ---- ________ 2 - 0 yoda _____________ 0-0 __ 1-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- _________1 - 0 Tom _____________ 1-0 __ 0-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- _________ 1 - 0 Roger Smith ______ ---- __ ---- __ 1-0 __ ---- __ ---- _________ 1 - 0 Normal ___________1-0 __ 0-1 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- _________ 1 - 1 ================================================================================ BEST SCORES -- Totals for January to March Forecasters are listed in same order as annual points standings. Only those who have any best scores are listed. Ties are possible which is why some locations have more than two best scores, also, if Normal or consensus achieve a top score, the actual forecaster with high score gets an award also. FORECASTER ______________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA__west___Months RodneyS ___________________ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 2 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 2 ____ 2 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 _____ 2 _ Jan, Feb wxallannj ___________________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 RJay _______________________ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 _____ 0 Brian5671 __________________ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 DonSutherland.1 ____________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 _____ 1 _ Mar ___ Consensus ______________0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 hudsonvalley21 _____________0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 Tom ________________________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 Scotty Lightning ____________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 _____ 0 Roger Smith ________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 yoda _______________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 _____ Normal _______________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 _____ 0 RClab _______________________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 _____ 0