Roger Smith

It's interesting how many times the extreme forecast wins, realizing there are a few ties and taking note that we award a win to a regular player against field when an occasional entrant wins, and not having time to go back through twelve contests and add up the actual numbers, I think at least 70 out of 108 possible months had an extreme forecast winner and then taking away the "losses" which mean that the second most extreme actually won, perhaps about 60 out of 108, more than half the time it pays to go large -- as long as you don't go too large and in the wrong direction which risks getting a zero score. Our "extreme forecasters" finished the contest in this order ... 3rd, 1st, (normal), 7th, 9th, 2nd, 10th, 4th, 5th, then three who were not entered that often, fniishing up with our regular 12th and 8th. That shows no real trend in terms of going extreme being a good or bad strategy although maybe slightly skewed towards it being good? I have a feeling that if you just said +1.0 for every forecast you might do fairly well. If Normal gained 20 points 70% of the time (by predicting +1.0) and lost 20 25% of the time, with the rest being random scatter, then Normal would have 45% x 108 x 20 more points which is 972 more, and that would equate to first place (Normal finished equivalent to 10th place). In fact, I think Normal wins under those assumptions at any value between +0.5 and +1.5. Our winner often forecasts in that range. Also Normal wins under my calculations at 60% vs 35% gain to loss, perhaps I have underestimated the number of random scatter cases (which would be where the actual result is between zero and one degree absolute). Anyway, something to consider next year, it's the opposite of extreme forecast strategy because it would tend to hug consensus more.

also IAD 10.6 storm total, BWI 6.6

Confused about how to post on a weather forum? Just fill in the blanks here and you're good to go ... Just looked out the window and I think we have ___ inches (note -- be sure not to say where you are) which is more than the ____ model said we would have. The ____ model is crap anyway. My health is ____ (insert random illness) ______ so I can't get out and _______ (insert random activity) _____ although if the _____ model is right, I will be able to do that on ______ -- the ____ model is awesome at that time range and I will always remember how it nailed the ______ storm _____ days in advance. Glad I didn't listen to Roger Smith who said _____ ______ ______ .

As of mid-day climo reports, storm totals appear to be 5.4" DCA, 5.6" BWI and 7.1" IAD. Will likely add to all those with final reports.

With the ECM continuing to keep this 20th-21st monster on a southern track, I believe that the snow potential is higher than advertised and freezing rain less likely, as the leading wave on 19th looks set to drop a bit of sleety mix, then quite possibly the actual low will have more cold air to lift and it won't blast in those higher 850s as shown, but will produce frontal boundaries that resemble the current setup. This would bring S+ down into the I-95 corridor and put the mixed precip into an OCE-RIC arc including the southern counties of Maryland west of the Bay. The CMC solution looks way too far north given the overall pattern and the GFS could use some definition but isn't entirely against the snow outcome, more of a rain to snow sort of look at the moment. The analogy might be Jan 28-30, 2010 with a stronger storm in the trailing position this time. That was also a perigeean full moon (Jan 30) following a northern max by 2-3 days, this year the timing separation is a bare two days but that's ideal for the one-two hit with 24-36h of cold air damming potential between storms (although at the moment the N Max event is so weak it can't be called a storm as such). In 2010 IIRC the N Max went well to the north and pulled in 60s before the front set up ahead of the first snowstorm of the 2010 run. This year, you have some chance of retaining a bit of snow cover from this weekend into a weaker warm advection event, so ground could be snow covered into onset of Jan 20. I know it's marginal but if the low center does track across s.e. VA then it's not far from the 2016 track. That was also near the full moon. So was Jan 96. It may be coincidence but my research shows there is always a strong one-two pulse of energy in January at this N Max full moon combination (which must be 1.5 to 3.5 days apart depending on how late the full moon is into January). The energy can run well north of you in a mild pattern, as with 1999 or going back a long way, 1967. The bottom line is, somebody is going to get a huge snowfall out of Jan 20-21, could be you and then NYC-BOS, could be OH-PA-NY and se MI into s ON. Time will tell.

You had a good run. But you're not the last to fall, by the looks of the pattern.

In December I posted this chart which graphically illustrates how reality to date compares to the forecasts, using DCA as the organizing value for the chart. A second chart was posted using RIC as the focus. Now that some snow has finally fallen at the other three locations, I think I will only be updating this DCA-based chart. If you didn't see it before, the first posting of this is followed by some interesting statistics on the contest forecasts. I have not copied those to this post. And so, all I've done here is to move the "snow to date" entry down into the table past the 6.5" and 6.7" entries (and in later edit, past 11.0) to 11.7 inches -- this is the new chart ... DCA in black type, IAD in red, BWI in green, RIC in blue, and (for most) SBY in orange, with LYH also in orange and with the asterisk (for the three who used it as their tie-breaker). I have boosted the totals by two-day reported storm totals or estimates of 10.3" for DCA and 10.6" for IAD, 6.6" for BWI, 1.5" for RIC and 3.7" for SBY, and 4.1" for LYH (all now as per CF6). Have added Jan 29 to Mar 8 amounts to this table. Forecaster _____Nov date __ 0" __ 2" __ 4" __ 6" __ 8" __10" __12"__14"__16"__18"_20"_22"_24"_26"_28"_30"_32"_34"_36".38".40"...45"...50"..60"..70"..80" George BM ________ 15 _____ 1.41.7 3.0___________________________________________________________________________42.7___ 50.2 EastCoastNPZ ______ 22 __________________ 6.5_7.8_8.710.911.1 Bristow Wx _________ 1 ___________________ 6.7_7.4_8.7 ____ 12.6 13.8 supernovasky _______ 9 __________________________9.0__11.0 12.0___________ 19.020.0 leesburg 04 _________1 _______________________________11.0 12.0 ______ 17.0_____ 22.023.0 RodneyS __________ 21 ___________________________ 10.5 _13.3 13.9 __________ 20.3 __23.6 MN Transplant _____ 28 _________________5.4 __ 7.8 ___________ 14.2 ____ 17.8_19.6 Wonderdog ________ 9 ________________________________ 12.75 ____ 16.0 ____ 20.0 ________ 27.0 ____ 33.0 nw Baltimore wx ___ 10 _______________________ 8.0 _______ 13.0 ____16.0 _________ 22.0_ 25.0 Bob Chill __________ 27 ________________________________ 12.0_14.0_16.0 _______________ 26.0 _ 29.0 Weather53 _________21 ______________________________________14.7_16.516.8____21.2_22.1 Stormpc ___________26 ___________________________________________16.716.817.2_19.9_ 24.6 Gramax Refugee ____27 _______________________________________15.2_16.9 17.2 ________________ 29.5_32.0 _ Snow to date __ Mar 8 ___________ 5.3 ________________13.1_16.9 _ 18.2 _ (21.0)* _26.5 Olafminesaw _______25 ________________________ 8.7_ 9.8 ____________ 17.3 __19.4 ____ 23.5 Prince Frederick Wx _ 1 ______________________________________ 14.3_17.117.7 __________24.5 _ 27.8 Gopper ___________ 15 ____________________________ 9.9________ 15.5 _ 17.7 __________________28.8 ___ 33.3 biodhokie __________ 8 ______________________________________ 14.5 ___17.8 18.1__21.3__________ 30.2 WinterWxLuvr ______ 8 _______________________________ 11.0 _ 13.0 _____18.0 _______ 23.0_________ 32.0 Thanatos_I_Am ____ 30 ___________ 3.2 _______ 7.5 _____________________ 18.3 ___________25.8 27.6 Grothar of Herndon _ 30 _______________________________________14.4 ____18.3 19.2 ______ 25.7 __ 29.1 Chris78 ____________ 1 ____________________________________12.4 14.9 ___ 18.4 ___________26.7_28.6 dmillz25 ____________1 _____________________________ 10.0 11.0 __________ 19.0 _________25.0 __ 29.0 LP08 ______________ 5 ______________________________________13.314.6 ___ 19.7 _____________________ 34.4_______ 42.6 MillvilleWx __________1 _________________________ 8.7 _____________15.0 _______21.1 _________27.4_29.5 North Balti Zen ______ 5 ______________________________________14.0 _____ 19.6_21.1 _________ 28.8 ________35.7 mattie g __________ 28 _____________________________10.4 _____13.9 __________ 21.1 ____________ 30.6 ___________38.7 WxWatcher007 _____30 _____________________________10.6 ___________16.4 ____ 21.1 _________ 28.9 ____32.5 Yoda _____________ 27 ________________________ 8.4___________ 14.1 ___________21.8 _________29.6 ___ 32.9 cae ______________ 30 ________________________________11.7_12.7 _____________ 21.8 _______27.6 ___ 31.3 WxUSAF ___________ 5 ____________________________________________16.6 ____21.1 22.7 _____________31.5 _ 35.2 ___ Consensus ____ median ____________________________________Sby14.4 _17.0 ____ 22.7 _____Lyh 30.1*_30.6_ 35.0 NorthArlington101 ___ 1 __________________________ 9.1 ______________16.0 _________22.8 __25.7 _____ 32.2 T. August _________ 21 ___________________________________________________19.1__22.9 ____ 27.5_29.2 _______ 36.0 Prestige Worldwide __27 __________________________________12.4 ____15.8 __________ 23.0 ___________31.0 ____ 35.0 BTRwx'sThanksGiving_12 _________________________________12.0 _______17.0 __________ 24.0 _____________34.0 ___ 38.0 Shadowzone _______ 14 ___________________________________________ 16.8 ____ 20.3*__ 24.1 _________31.7 ____ 35.7 HighStakes _________ 6 _________________________________________________18.7 20.0 ___24.5 __________________ 37.4 _41.1 Sparky ____________ 2 ________________________________________ 14.015.0_____________ 25.0 ___________34.0 _____ 39.0 mappy ____________ 5 __________________________________________________ 19.0 _ 22.0_ 25.0 ________32.0 __ 35.0 OnceinaLifetime2009_28 _______________________________11.1 _________________19.9 _______ 26.7 __ 30.1 ________________44.5 Cobalt ____________30 __________________________________12.1 _______16.8 _______________ 26.9 ______ 33.2 _______39.4 weatherCCB _______ 16 ___________________________________________________19.5 __23.0 ____ 27.4 ______________________ 46.8_49.6 clskinsfan _________ 20 ^ 1 ______________________________________ 15.5 _ 18.5 ______________27.5 _____________ 36.5 37.5 psuhoffman ________ 1 ___________________________________________________19.0 20.0 _______ 28.0 _______________37.0 39.0 nj2va ____________ 1 __________________________________ 11.5 ____________ 18.9 _____________ 29.2 _____________________ 48.7 _______ 59.9 Roger Smith ______ 26 ^ 1 _________________________________________ 16.5 _______ 21.0 _______ 29.2 ___________42.5 43.8 snowgolfbro _______ 10 ________________________________________ 14.5 __ 18.0 _________________ 30.0 ____________________ 47.0 _52.0 ravensrule _________12 __________________________________________15.0_17.0 __________________ 30.0 ____________38.0_40.0 C. A. P. E. _________ 1 _____________________________________________________ 20.1 ___24.5 ______30.3 ______ 35.8_ 38.5 budice2002 _______ 14 ______________________________________________________________ 26.0 29.0 31.0 _____________ 42.0_46.0 southMDwatcher ___ 20 _________________________________11.4 ________________ 20.7 ______________ 31.1 ______________ 43.8_47.9 tplbge ___________ 16 ______________________________________________17.0 ___________________ 29.0 ____34.0 ______________49.0 _53.0 showmethesnow ___ 27 ______________________________________________17.0 _______ 24.0 _______________ 34.0 ______________ 50.0 _54.0 JakkelWx _________ 30 _________________________________________________________ 24.0 ____27.0 __________35.0 ___40.0_42.0 GATECH __________ 1 _______________________________________14.214.3 ___________________________________ 35.7 _______44.9_47.5 SnowLuvrDude _____30 ______________________________________________________21.7_ 24.2 ____________________ 37.1 ______ 48.6_52.4 wxdude64 ________ 13 ________________________________________________________________ 26.1 __30.1*__________ 38.4 ______________55.8 57.4 AFewUnivBelowN ___ 1 __________________________________________ n/a ______________________28.0 _______________ 40.0 _____________ 56.0 __________ 65.0 RIC Airport ________ 1 ________________________________________________________________________ 32.2 _________________46.0 __________ 57.8*_ 61.9 62.5 osfan24 ___________ 7 _____________________________________________________ 21.2 ______________ 31.3 _________________ 46.2 _____54.3_55.9 _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________

STL has now passed four forecasts and PIA just overtook the tied lowest two forecasts. MLI is quite close to the lowest forecast there now also. Most other stations are not very close to the minimum forecast yet. (new snowfall amounts are edited into a post that was entered on Dec 17th).

If it's the ECM Friday map you looked at, that would just be a weak pulse of milder air with perhaps some light rain turning to wet snow along its trailing front, but it would not be doing much to affect the outcome of the stronger Sunday-Monday event. I am not sold on the milder solution with that track basically across s.e. VA, seems quite possible that a strong low moving along that track would be mostly or all snow for DC and Maryland.

Would suggest changing the thread title to 1-20/21 Snowstorm or whatever you think it's going to be called -- Euro 192h continues earlier trend of depicting a very powerful snowstorm for the region. GFS has lost it in a chain of frontal waves, GEM has a weaker storm a bit further north. If Euro is closest to reality, 15-30 inch potential for this one.

Euro 192h ... this x5

Some of those could take three winters to achieve.

The Euro solution for 20-21 Jan as shown looks very similar to 1899 storm and could easily drop 15-30 inches, can't see the 47 verifying though. Must be based on very large ratio assumptions in the Kuchera. Of considerable interest, the 23-24 Jan GFS scenario would plunge all of region and southeastern US into frigid arctic air with -20 wind chills and single digit temperatures. Only 1-3 inch snowfall potential as this approaches (as depicted) but on top of the earlier dump (GFS good for 8-12 on the 21st IMO) blowing snow in 50-60 mph westerly winds. Other models cut off just before this event but show little signs of going that extreme, still, it is a robust signal for 12 days. A third energy peak appears at end of the run also dropping southeast with renewed outbreak of frigid air. Second half of Jan temp anomalies could be stupendous (-10 to -15).

Nice, I went from dividing by 3 to multiplying by 2. (final calls 7.0 for all three major airports, DCA should say 9.0, CHO 12.5)

STL just moved past the minimum forecast (from me) with 7.8" reported on Friday 11th. I have boosted the table by 8" and will adjust that when a Saturday report is added. I think this is the first forecast overtaken by reality in this winter snowfall contest.

If that cold pool over eastern Canada is as deep and widespread as ECM advertises, then the jet will respond with a deep trough as shown on the day 8 panel, with any luck that low will follow a good track and bring a huge snowfall. The GFS has some wild and wacky looking looping lows out in the Atlantic at a similar time frame, not seeing quite how that shape of troughing would respond to the large-scale pattern, but GEM on the other hand just blindly produces a cutter for no obvious reason. This may be the first of three or four big storms after the impending medium sized event.

STL reports 8" snow so far.

2" snow on the ground STL (28/27) ... bring it.

Charlottesville, the snow capital of the eastern United States -- now accepting bus tours from Boston and New York City.

The ensemble of different versions of ECM contain solutions that track further north and mix the precip. If the map you're referring to is accurate, no mixing concerns, would buy ear plugs for the deafening thundersnow.

The ECM shift to a southern track is plausible, and the GFS concept of chain of lows along a front fails to separate the 19th and 21st energy peaks from my research point of view, so if I blend a better separated GFS with this ECM track, I think you are in the hunt for the jackpot that seems inevitable with the 21st energy peak. More chance of it shifting back north than any further south, it is a finely tuned sports car low that the ECM advertises, and 15-30" certainly in its specs, would toss the 40" though, this is not 1888 and western CT.

Mixing may not be that big a problem anywhere north or west of RIC, certainly on the edge there but when the coastal starts taking over, colder air over the Potomac region will slide south and I would envisage the mixing zone being closer to southeast VA as a result. Going with these amounts: Max for storm in axis of CHO-north of EZF to Easton MD, 6-9 inches 4 inch line parallel to that with northward jog around higher terrain, approx IAD-BWI. DCA therefore in a higher snowfall position but will they measure it? No, so amounts all 4.0" (DCA should be 5.5). 2 inch line just around PA-MD border. On the southern edge of snow zone, 4" from RIC to Ocean City MD, extending southwest from RIC towards n/c NC. LYH and ROA about 5"

This weekend snow event cries out for a contest, but I'm not the one to post the thread. Hoping someone will take up the challenge. We'll see who's dividing by what at the end of this business.

I wonder if you'll get the same kind of snowfall that we got here when the Pacific storm ran up against the same wall of arctic high -- I realize this is a different packet of energy than the southern stream in NM-TX but perhaps the air mass interactions will be similar. We had 5.0" of snow over 36 hours and throughout the event the flakes were very small, like drizzle that turned to snow. It kept accumulating at about 0.2" per hour with some lighter intervals. But it looked like a snowstorm throughout. Temp/dew point was about 28/27 for the whole event. No wind so it just sat level and now it's very slowly sinking to about a three inch cover.

Not a burner account for JB, in fact past two days I've been posting 2-4" most likely DCA-BWI and 4-8" central VA. Still thinking that after looking at RGEM and GFS. Frankly, more concerned about a near miss scenario to south than any chance of bigger amounts than those. There was one moment a few days ago where I thought this storm could do much better, but tracking it on radar through NM into TX has convinced me it's a weakling that could grow into a mesomorph -- maybe that's the connection to JB1. (as for Justin Berk, who I now see is an actual person and not a fun name for Joe B, well, I never heard of him before today. And I don't even know where Owings Mills is located although I'm guessing it's north of a lot of other places?). Anyway, the divide by 3 rule seems to have shrunk down to divide by 2 at this point.