Roger Smith

Here are some hourlies from one of the hottest locations, PSC ( Pasco Tri-Cities airport in se WA) 2 pm PDT __ 109 F 3 pm PDT __ 110 F 4 pm PDT __ 113 F 5 pm PDT __ 114 F 6 pm PDT __ 112 F (max reported as 115 F) This looks to be a fairly normal sequence for this abnormal heat.

One of the big news stories here is that the raspberry crop, which usually matures in early July for a leisurely picking by thousands of ordinary citizens who pay for the privilege, has instantly appeared and is now baking to worthless quality on the plants. Next stop, blueberries, they are usually ready to pick in August. Have been seeing bears on a regular basis around town here, they are clearly distressed by the extreme heat which is probably throwing off their feeding habits too.

Yes but only 107F where I live, thinking of getting the parka out.

It's going over the top anyway Don, looking at the full range of reports I feel sure one of the official stations will top both the BC and national record values. I am going to post something I was working on but won't be able to finish parts two and three right away, for your general interest. This will be a list of the top 30 NYC weekly averages (max only in this post, will add min and mean later). That should be up shortly. The local station (Warfield) has been up to 41 C already and will likely top off at 42 C, it feels about that outside although I am up the hill 2 miles and 500 feet higher. However I was in Las Vegas in Aug 2011 when it was 46 C and that was noticeably hotter although the sky looks very similar.

you missed my living room 3 F

On this question of the role of AGW in the appearance of such events, I agree with previous comments about the difficulty of disentangling the signal from the processes. Logically speaking, if we at least agree that AGW must be warming the atmosphere by some amount (1 C deg on average but closer to 2 C in subarctic regions, and also from some studies stronger in the n.h. than the s.h.), then we have a number of possible interactive scenarios: (a) the atmosphere is doing what it would have done without the signal, but all components are warming up; (b) the atmosphere is being forced to develop warm outcome patterns more frequently than it would do without the human input; (c) some number of incompletely understood feedback loops are interacting with only partially predictable consequences. These are not necessarily completely independent or mutually exclusive outcomes. For example, I noticed that the singularity of the Nov-Dec 2015 warm signal across N America into Europe followed the northward track of remnants of Hurricane Patricia in late October 2015. Without that exceptional hurricane and its ability to move large amounts of tropical air north, would the full extent of that warm signal have developed? On the other side of the coin, certain statistical profiles argue for a general blanding of climate in some regions, with less extreme cold a certain factor, but also less frequent daytime heat as the increases seem to be falling mostly into the overnight low category. I have done an extensive study of Toronto and New York City temperature records. Both have an urban heat island factor to remove from the data but that should create more frequent warmth at all times of day, so even without addressing that factor, here's an interesting finding -- the frequency of hot days is not increasing in statistical terms since a peak around the 1944 to 1955 era. The frequency of warm nights is increasing. The main periods of stress on daytime high records is either end of winter, i.e., late Nov-Dec, and late Feb-early March. In those time windows, more than the expected number of record high maxima occur, at other times of year, the distribution is either random or it favors earlier decades. Both temperature series showed a natural warming signal around the 1890s with a relapse in the 1904-07 interval and further natural warming around 1911-22. The 1920s turned somewhat colder again. The 1930s are of course well known for hot summers but also had a number of very mild winters (and one very cold one, 1933-34, with 1935-36 known for its cold further west). Anyone who wants to take a deep dive into these stats can find links to my files (which are posted on the UK site net-weather, mainly because they have a larger download limit than here) -- the links are through a portal in the NYC subforum. The files are continuously updated. Right now I am working on warmest and coldest weeks at NYC. This is not completed but I can already see that the frequency of warm weeks by daytime highs is fairly well distributed and the frequency of warm weeks by overnight lows is dominated by more recent years. Since mean temperature is the average of both, the frequency of warm weeks by mean temp is skewed a bit towards the recent past but so far the impact of the higher mins is not that substantial as to overturn many of the earlier contenders which survive so far. December 2015 was quite a singularity in our recent climate. Britain for example had a mean temperature 1.6 C higher than previous monthly records (set in 1934, 1974). NYC and Toronto had means even more separated from second place. December has shown a much more robust recent warming than most months. We had 1982 which set new records, followed by a few more in Dec 1984, then 1990 and 1998 broke some of them and 2013 or 2015 broke most of the rest. I got far enough into the compilation of record warm weeks to find that Dec 2015 holds almost all the high values after mid-month. Even with the recent warming, some of the most impressive warm spells (even before adjusting for urban heat island) fall way back into the past. July 1868 was a very hot month at Toronto. Late May of 1880, late September of 1881, and two periods in 1895 (late May-early June, and mid-Sept) still hold on to records that are sustained over several days to a week. It's a mixed bag of signals in general in these historical climate records, and the details of modern or AGW warming are perhaps more subtle than many might imagine. When I look back on these historical warm spells, and even ones that as an older weather enthusiast I can remember (like the mid-April 1976 heat) I wonder if they would play out the same way (perhaps 1 deg warmer or so), or if they would evolve differently and hit further north than they did back then. The same thing applies to U.K. climate records. It remains true that the warmest May (by over 1 C deg) was in 1833, and the warmest June was in 1846. Until broken in 2006, the warmest September was 1729. Some months in the U.K. records have showed a greater tendency to modern warming than others. The process is not just some blanket warming of 1-2 degrees. Driving warmer air into the arctic is going to cause arctic air masses to try to flow out behind disturbances. Some think that in recent years, the climate of the Canadian prairies has become subject to more extremes with unusual out of season snowfalls and frosts like the snowstorm in Calgary in early September of 2014 (and the more recent Denver snowstorm and freeze in Sept). Without the luxury of a "control earth" that we could study for differences, the field is wide open to speculation, which in a way is causing a lot of unhelpful confusion since relatively low-information onlookers are quite free to take any climate occurrence and concoct an "explanation" for it that falls entirely into climate change, for example, the recent rather cold April they had in Europe was "explained" as a consequence of AGW, which of course begged the question, why were most of the years that had similar means back in the Maunder minimum or the coldest parts of the 19th century? And why is every April not now like this? (most are quite warm in recent years). The answer is probably that the cold April was just "one of those things" and cannot realistically be explained by greenhouse gases, in fact one could argue that it was even less likely to occur than it might have been otherwise. I do believe that the frequency of warm weather events of all kinds is bound to increase if we warm the atmosphere by 1-2 deg but it has to be said that the increase must be demonstrated to fall in a higher range than you could expect by relaxing criteria by 1-2 deg from past frequencies, in order to demonstrate a change in process, otherwise all you are left with is a realization of the shifting range of the bell curves.

Some highlights of the 12z 500 mb analysis (from EC) ... 598 dm high over s central BC. 586 dm thickness max near Salem OR where sounding gives -2 C at 500 mb. ============================== Just a wait and see now, we got some relief overnight with most places dropping to the low 70s briefly.

In terms of return periods of a heat wave this intense in this region, we have not yet gone past two consecutive readings of 44.4 C (112 F) at the same locations mentioned in B.C., and a check of the weather maps for those two days (July 16-17, 1941) shows something very similar, a localized 500 mb heat dome around 598 dm. Here's a link to the historical weather chart for July 17, 1941. https://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?uur=1800&var=1&nmaps=24&map=2&model=noaa&jaar=1941&maand=07&dag=17 So I went into the historical data archives for EC to check the longevity of the 1941 heat wave, finding the following (I have converted the data back to the F deg that it was originally measured in as each of the C equivalents has an uncertainty of about 0.2. The hottest period was July 12-18. date ____ max Lytton BC ___ max Lillooet BC Jul 12 ___ 96 __________ 98 Jul 13 __ 100 _________ 101 Jul 14 __ 105 _________ 106 Jul 15 __ 109 _________ 109 Jul 16 __ 112 _________ 112 Jul 17 __ 112 _________ 112 Jul 18 ___ 96 __________ 92 __________________________________ Both locations had very few hot days during the summer before this heat wave set in, and returned to modified versions in mid-August with about a week in the high 90s (normal at these locations in the high 80s F). There was a small amount of rain at Lytton on the 16th and about a quarter inch at both locations on the 18th with the passage of weak cold fronts. This indicates to me that the 1941 heat wave produced localized nearly dry thunderstorms that were probably a forest fire hazard at the time. In terms of where the current heat wave is in its evolution, I would say around day 2 or 3 of the above, except that in the current case, it was somewhat warmer for about four days before this intense heat set in than was the case in 1941, highs for the past six days at Lytton (before Saturday) were 32.5 C (20th), 35.5 C (21st), 33.9 C (22nd), 31.6 C (23rd), 31.3 C (24th), 39.2 C (25th). Converted to F deg those would be 91, 96, 93, 89, 88, 103 (and around 110 today). We'll see what the seven-day average is this time around, in 1941 it was 104.3 at both locations. Assuming three or four more days near 110 this time, we could be looking at an average of 106 and that could climb a bit if the exit from the heat is warmer than the 89, 88 above. I would say that as a climate "singularity" this is so far about equal to the 1941 event. Weather buffs will probably recognize 1941 as the year when NYC had record heat in early October (94 F the highest Oct temp on record there). The summer of 1941 was generally a hot one in eastern North America and set a few daily records although it is not in the first tier of hot summers. Some of those records were in late July with a lag of about ten days indicated from the western heat wave. It was mid to high 90s sort of heat rather than 100+ at least for the locations I could check (Toronto, NYC). Another parameter worth comparing is the highest minima in these BC heat waves, only about 73 F for the 1941 version. Overnight lows in the high 70s or low 80s seldom occur in this climate (r.h. too low generally, high probability of clear skies at night). The 1941 heat wave seemed to end with a spell of cloudy and warm weather as the highs dropped more than the lows, and there were thunderstorms around. I may check the 2003 heat wave that led to serious fire hazards around the Okanagan valley in late July and early August. From memory it was not quite this hot but more sustained for two or three weeks, and there were a few episodes of dry lightning from storm cells that fired up over the Cascades in WA and moved north into BC overnight. Those started the worst of the fires near Kelowna and Salmon Arm BC. Salmon don't really have arms by the way, that's a feature of Shuswap Lake.

Predict the temperature anomalies (F deg rel to 1991-2020 averages) for DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA on-time deadline for entries is 06z Thursday July 1st.

Just watching local newscasts from both sides of the border, a few fires to report, nothing too serious yet, but with so many people out camping this weekend, and doing yard work, there are opportunities for fires to start and the forests are starting to dry out. Vehicle fires from overheating have been a problem. Lillooet BC apparently hit 43.0 C That would be 109.4 F in old money, so within 2.6 F of the all-time record there. (Just saw Don's post about Lytton at 43.3 C). We had a week of less extreme heat before this started so everyone is partially acclimatized, I would imagine this might be the Dec 2015 of Junes in terms of annihilating previous records (inland, the anomalies were not very large at SEA or YVR before this hot spell began, Spokane is close to +5 F and will end up +6 to +7). I looked up data for June 1958 which was one of the warmer ones, nothing like this sustained, just one day around 37 C, although the first half of that month was probably about equal to this year. This is not our first June heat wave either, it was very hot here on the first three days of June, hitting 36 C several days in a row.

Sorry I didn't notice that last entry around the deadline, I'm going to assume it was close enough that nobody will protest if I include it, so I am putting it into the table now. Nothing much going on with this for a while, I would imagine. All the heat is out west here, I am first to 100 degrees apparently (101 F outside here as I type). But it's a dry heat yada yada. The contest consensus (derived from means of 26 forecasts) is 101_101_102_102 I think BWI was marginally below RIC and IAD marginally below DCA but rounded off these two pairs are equal.

Just FYI, Victoria airport is a long way north of the city and the southern part of the city is currently getting a fairly nice sea breeze cooling to about 25 or 26 C, but just a few miles inland it's 35 C at U-Vic. Same happening around Vancouver, one or two of the lighthouse stations have 25 C while in the valley it's 37-40 C. The one good thing here is that we don't have as high a dew point locally, the dews are 18-20 C in coastal areas and just 10 C here, so it's just scorching hot without any humidity. The sky is quite an intense shade of blue like you see in the desert southwest in heat waves, with really tiny cumulus fractus on the horizon mostly. I would not be that surprised if a roadrunner appeared outside my window.

Well anyway it's now 101 F at SEA, case closed (ended up 102). (104 Sunday all time SEA record) (105 hourly 3 pm Monday, could be 106 for the max?) 108 where I live, probably also all-time record or close to it.

101F at Sea-Tac at 4 pm PDT .. is that all-time for SEA? I can remember it hitting maybe 99 or 100 a few years ago. 104F at PDX and 109F at The Dalles (which is a heat trap but still ... ) also 104F at YKA (Kamloops) which is not often within 1-2 of the heat trap locations. (to be fair, you couldn't design a better heat trap than the Fraser canyon, it points due south, it has bare rocky surfaces and the weather stations are at airports on south-facing benches, nobody in their right mind would live right there anyway). The full effects are not quite into the normal hot spots of southeast WA and eastern OR which are in the low 100s, sometimes those places like Walla Walla, Pasco and Pendleton can get into the low 110s. Probably will tomorrow.

This early onset is certainly the main feature, Don, we often count on a cloudy and unsettled June to keep the wildfire situation under control and in most years the weather gradually dries out and warms up through July in this northern extension of the interior west, so breaking all-time June records will be child's play for this late July heat wave. It ,may end up breaking the July records too. The Fraser valley region east of Vancouver has 38-39 C readings and the dew points are oppressive for this climate, around 18 or 19 C, adding some discomfort to the humidex values. That is a heavily populated region so it's not just 100 and something in a desert with tumbleweed and a couple of houses beside a dried out lake, we're talking about millions of people between greater Vancouver and Sea-Tac taking on this 100-degree heat without much a/c and generally not all that used to it (although it does seem to happen every other year now). Also you would think there's a lot of places to go to cool off at a beach, but in a lot of places beach access is very limited around these regions, the shoreline tends to be either lined with cottages or swamp where you can't swim. And inland lakes are very small and fill up with day users very quickly. The current temperature at YVR (Vancouver Int'l A) is only 30 C (86 F) but it's probably closer to 35 C in most of the urban areas around Vancouver, the airport is very close to the sea and almost always has a seabreeze during heat waves. The all-time record there from late July 2009 is only 35 C.

Posted this in the other discussion not realizing this thread had been opened up, so the info is more relevant here than there ... We are under the heat dome big-time now, in southern BC as well as the Pac NW region. For BC, the all-time record highs are 44.4 C (recorded as 112 F) in July 1941 at locations in the Fraser canyon region about 150 miles northeast of Vancouver. Numerous other inland locations have recorded extremes between 42 C and that value, a few of them since we converted from F to C in the late 1970s. Canada's all-time high is just one F deg higher (113F which is 45.0 C) and that was in July 1937 in towns southeast of Regina SK. In both the 1936 and 1937 heat waves, numerous 42-44 C readings were registered and the all-time warmest top thirty (available on wikipedia) is dominated by these three events (1936, 1937, 1941) despite the warming trends recently. For whatever reason Canada has not seen any new extremes, a couple of times around 2003 and 2009 there were 42C readings. Toronto has about a dozen days with 100+ readings, the hottest were in 1936 (three at 105F) and almost all the rest between 1911 and 1953. Only 2011 contributed one to this list after 1953. There has been an increase in mean temperature at Toronto but almost all of it is with overnight lows, not daytime highs (compared to the mid-20th century, obviously all parameters increased from late 19th to early-mid 20th). This current heat wave appears capable of approaching those all-time record highs, will report back on the results. We are right under the heart of this 500 mb heat dome (shown at 599 dm) in south-central BC this weekend. I live about halfway up the west side of the Columbia valley where the base elevation is about 400m asl and the local peaks in the Monashee range are around 2000-2500m. My local elevation is about 1050m. The nearest reporting station (Warfield BC) is at about 700m. It can be one of the province's hottest reporting sites, Osoyoos near the US border in the Okanagan and Lytton or Lillooet in the Fraser canyon are more frequently tops. We weren't quite under the full effect of this on Friday but already it was 36 C (97 F) at Warfield. Expecting closer to 40 C today and the peak likely around Monday-Tuesday. (since I typed that two hours ago it has hit 41 C at Lytton BC, I also see 107F at The Dalles east of Portland OR, and numerous low 100s in WA state. About 38C or 100F at my place. This heat wave looks like it might more or less match the July 1941 event but this one has appeared earlier, one has to wonder if there could be a more severe event later in the summer). A/C is not all that common in our part of the world despite the fact that almost every summer there are a few sweltering days. It does tend to cool off fairly well at night here, I was out at midnight admiring the rising moon near Saturn, and it was quite comfortable, probably about 65F. If you have clear skies where you live tonight, have a look between midnight and 0200h local time, you'll see the Moon very close to Saturn and then Jupiter off to the left rising a bit later. The Moon will then be close to Jupiter on Sunday night.

<<<<<< ============ - - - - Annual Scoring for 2021 (Jan-June) - - - - ============ >>>>>>>> High scores for nine locations shown in red, high scores for regions in bold. June provisional scores are used and adjustments will be made here to reflect changes there. New feature _ change in rank is shown after forecaster name. No entry there means same position as last month. One forecaster passed Normal but not any other forecaster, so their change is shown as zero, Normal is shown down 1. Tom was ahead of consensus in May but his "down 1" refers only to the forecasters, Consensus is up one relative to the forecasters. FORECASTER _________________DCA_NYC_BOS__east_ ORD_ATL_IAH__cent __c/e ___DEN_PHX_SEA__west___TOTALS DonSutherland1 ______________ 428 _474 _336 _ 1238 __397 _446 _390 _1233__2471 __248 _452 _384 _ 1084___ 3555 BKViking (up 2) _______________416 _494 _374 _ 1284 __308 _420 _346 _ 1074__2358 __280 _402 _422 _ 1104___ 3462 wxdude64 (down 1) ___________453 _481 _378 _ 1312 __289 _360 _343 __ 992 __2304 __333 _429 _365 _ 1127___ 3431 ___ Consensus (up 1) _________ 448 _492 _358 _ 1298 __296 _396 _362 _ 1054 __2352 __266 _406 _384 _ 1056___3408 Tom (down 1) _________________436 _505 _396 _ 1337 __258 _341 _394 __ 993 __2330 __314 _405 _332 _ 1051___ 3381 hudsonvalley21 _______________ 426 _454 _382 _ 1262 __287 _440 _336 _ 1063 __2325 __212 _380 _406 __ 998___ 3323 wxallannj ______________________366 _450 _342 _ 1158 __264 _366 _400 _ 1030 __2188 __350 _386 _396 _ 1132___ 3320 RodneyS ______________________ 392 _446 _301 _ 1139 __271 _412 _336 _ 1019 __2158 __300 _416 _402 _ 1118___ 3276 so_whats_happening (up 1) ____453 _447 _286 _ 1186 __348 _450 _285 _ 1083 __2269 __218 _413 _357 __ 988___ 3257 Scotty Lightning (down 1) ______416 _432 _279 _ 1127 __192 _390 _374 __ 956 __2083 __298 _412 _372 _ 1082___ 3165 RJay __________________________ 372 _426 _394 _ 1192 __326 _350 _316 __ 992 __2184 __224 _332 _302 __ 858___ 3042 ___ Normal (down 1) ___________ 400 _378 _244 _ 1022 __154 _ 384 _388 __926 __1948 __348 _372 _350 _ 1070___ 3018 Roger Smith ___________________ 356 _322 _155 __ 833 __309 _314 _398 _ 1021 __ 1854 __264 _370 _380 _ 1014___ 2868 Best scores for the locations and regions FORECASTER _______________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ east __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ cent __ c/e ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA __ west ___ Totals DonSutherland1 ______________ 2 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 2 ______ 2 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 3 ____ 3 _____ 0 ____ 3 ____ 1 _____ 0 _____ 1 __ Jan wxdude64 ____________________ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 1 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 2 _____ 1 __ Mar (t) BKViking _____________________ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 2 _____ 0 _____ 1 __ Apr ___ Consensus _______________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ Tom __________________________ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 1 _____ 1 __ May hudsonvalley21 _______________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 1 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 2 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ wxallannj _____________________ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 0 ______ 1 ____ 1 ____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 _____ 0 __ RodneyS _____________________ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 1 _____ 1 __ Feb so_whats_happening _________ 2 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 1 ____ 2 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 1 __ Mar (t) Scotty Lightning ______________ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ RJay _________________________ 0 ____ 1 ____ 4 _____ 1 ______ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ ___ Normal ___________________ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 1 _____ 0 __ May Roger Smith __________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 1 ____ 1 ____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 _____ 1 __Jun ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- EXTREME FORECAST STANDINGS High score must go to either the extreme warm or cold forecast, or second most extreme, for a station to qualify. So far this year, 38 locations out of 54 have qualified, 4 in Jan, 5 in Feb, 7 in March, 6 in April, 8 in May and 8 in June. Of those, 22 were awarded to warmest forecasts, 16 to coldest. A loss in the standings represents a case where second most extreme forecast had the high score and the win for that month. Normal can only win along with a forecaster. There have been six shared wins (one by three) accounting for the 46 total wins (excl Normal). FORECASTER _________ Jan __ Feb __ Mar _ Apr _ May _ Jun ___ TOTAL to date wxallannj ______________ ---- __ ----- __ ----- __ 3-0 __ 2-0 __ 3-0 __ 8-0 DonSutherland1 _______ 2-0 __ 1-0 __ 2-0 __ 0-1 __ 2-0 __ 1-0 __ 8-1 Roger Smith ___________ 2-1 __ 2-0 __ ---- __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ 2-0 __ 8-1 RJay ___________________ ---- __ ---- __ 2-0 __ 2-0 __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ 6-0 so_whats_happening ___---- __ 1-0 __ 2-0 __ ----- __ ----- __ 1-0 __ 4-0 wxdude64 _____________ ---- __ 1-0 __ 2-0 __ ----- __ ----- __ ----- __ 3-0 RodneyS ______________ ----- __ ----- __ ----- __ ----- __ 2-1 __ 1-0 __ 3-1 Normal _________________---- __ ---- __ 2-0 __ ----- __ 1-0 __ ----- __ 3-0 BKViking ______________ ----- __ ----- __ ----- __ ----- __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ 2-0 Tom __________________ ----- __ ----- __ ----- __ ----- __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ 2-0 Scotty Lightning ______ ----- __ ----- __ ----- __ ----- __ ----- __ 1-1 __ 1-1 __________________________________________

We are under the heat dome big-time now, in southern BC as well as the Pac NW region. For BC, the all-time record highs are 44.4 C (recorded as 112 F) in July 1941 at locations in the Fraser canyon region about 150 miles northeast of Vancouver. Numerous other inland locations have recorded extremes between 42 C and that value, a few of them since we converted from F to C in the late 1970s. Canada's all-time high is just one F deg higher (113F which is 45.0 C) and that was in July 1937 in towns southeast of Regina SK. In both the 1936 and 1937 heat waves, numerous 42-44 C readings were registered and the all-time warmest top thirty (available on wikipedia) is dominated by these three events (1936, 1937, 1941) despite the warming trends recently. For whatever reason Canada has not seen any new extremes, a couple of times around 2003 and 2009 there were 42C readings. Toronto has about a dozen days with 100+ readings, the hottest were in 1936 (three at 105F) and almost all the rest between 1911 and 1953. Only 2011 contributed one to this list after 1953. There has been an increase in mean temperature at Toronto but almost all of it is with overnight lows, not daytime highs (compared to the mid-20th century, obviously all parameters increased from late 19th to early-mid 20th). This current heat wave appears capable of approaching those all-time record highs, will report back on the results. We are right under the heart of this 500 mb heat dome (shown at 599 dm) in south-central BC this weekend. I live about halfway up the west side of the Columbia valley where the base elevation is about 400m asl and the local peaks in the Monashee range are around 2000-2500m. My local elevation is about 1050m. The nearest reporting station (Warfield BC) is at about 700m. It can be one of the province's hottest reporting sites, Osoyoos near the US border in the Okanagan and Lytton or Lillooet in the Fraser canyon are more frequently tops. We weren't quite under the full effect of this on Friday but already it was 36 C (97 F) at Warfield. Expecting closer to 40 C today and the peak likely around Monday-Tuesday. A/C is not all that common in our part of the world despite the fact that almost every summer there are a few sweltering days. It does tend to cool off fairly well at night here, I was out at midnight admiring the rising moon near Saturn, and it was quite comfortable, probably about 65F. If you have clear skies where you live tonight, have a look between midnight and 0200h local time, you'll see the Moon very close to Saturn and then Jupiter off to the left rising a bit later. The Moon will then be close to Jupiter on Sunday night.

By the consensus or the max forecast? It is super hot out this way right now, all SEA is going to need to break 100 is a land breeze. Highs in the 105-110 range are going to be widespread in the Pac NW and s BC this weekend and most of the following week. I am at nearly 4,000' elevation but right now it's close to 98F and heading for the 103-105 range. Valleys will be hotter. But SEA can hold on to a weak seabreeze, right now I see it is 88 there with a northerly breeze. Probably tops out at 95 today, maybe higher in coming days.

Final scoring for June 2021 Scores are based on the latest projections in the previous post, anomaly tracker. When the highest raw score is below 60, we go to a system of progressive scoring with a max of 60. With eleven forecasts, that gives levels of 0, 6, 12, 18 ... 54, 60. No "minimum progression" score is used where the raw score would be higher. Minimum progression scores are marked ^.... same score either way * Minimum progression was needed for most of the BOS scores, and the top two SEA scores, otherwise SEA scoring was higher or equal for raw scores below the 48 level. DEN and PHX made late exits from minimum progression. That has not been shown in the scoring table yet, waiting for the actual numbers to save a step. ___________________________ FORECASTER ________DCA_NYC_BOS_east_ ORD_ATL_IAH_cent __ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA_west _ TOTAL Roger Smith __________ 84 _ 80 _ 17 __ 181 __ 66 _ 70 _ 98 __ 234 _ 415 __ 88 _ 58 _ 48*__ 194 ___ 609 BKViking _____________ 68 _ 96 _ 42^__ 206 __ 66 _ 84 _ 82 __ 232 _ 438 __ 54 _ 48 _ 60^__ 162 ___ 602 so_whats_happening __84 _ 92 _ 36^__ 212 __ 74 _ 86 _ 88 __248 _ 460 __ 48 _ 42 _ 46 __ 136 ___ 596 DonSutherland1 ______ 62 _ 94 _ 48^__ 204 __ 56 _ 88 _ 78 __ 222 _ 426 __ 34 _ 72 _ 54^__ 160 ___ 586 ___ Consensus ________72 _ 92 _ 30^__ 194 __ 58 _ 84 _ 82 __ 224 _ 418 __ 50 _ 42 _ 38 __ 130 ___ 548 RJay _________________ 46 _ 86 _ 60^__ 192 __ 66 _ 64 _ 88 __ 218 _ 410 __ 74 _ 42 _ 18 __ 134 ___ 544 wxallannj _____________ 48 _ 78 _ 60^__ 186 __ 74 _ 96 _ 62 __ 232 _ 418 __ 70 _ 36 _ 10 __ 116 ___ 534 wxdude64 ____________ 78 _ 86 _ 21 __ 185 __ 48 _ 82 _ 80 __ 210 _ 395 __ 50 _ 46 _ 30 __ 126 ___ 521 RodneyS ______________86 _ 82 _ 23 __ 191 __ 36 _ 94 _ 70 __ 200 _ 391 __ 40 _ 40 _ 48*__ 128 ___ 519 hudsonvalley21 _______72 _ 94 _ 30^__ 196 __ 44 _ 92 _ 72 __ 208 _ 404 __ 42 _ 32 _ 38 __ 112 ___ 516 Tom __________________ 64 _ 92 _ 27 __ 183 __ 58 _ 52 _ 98 __ 208 _ 391 __ 56 _ 34 _ 28 __ 118 ___ 509 Scotty Lightning _______86 _ 74 _ 05 __ 165 __ 36 _ 64 _ 82 __ 182 _ 347 __ 44 _ 42 _ 28 __ 114 ___ 461 ___ Normal ____________94 _ 54 _ 00 __ 148 __ 26 _ 94 _ 88 __ 208 _ 356 __ 34 _ 22 _ 18 __ 074 ___ 430 __________________________________________________ Extreme forecast report _____________________________________ DCA _ Finished at -0.3, a shared win for RodneyS and Scotty Lightning (each +1.0), also Normal. NYC _ Finished at +2.3, near consensus, no extreme forecasts. BOS _ Finished warmer (+6.3) than warmest forecasts (+3.5) (win for RJay, wxallannj). ORD _ Finished warmer (+3.7) than warmest forecasts (+2.4) (win for so_whats_happening, wxallannj) ATL _ A win for wxallannj (-0.5) as outcome is -0.3. IAH _ Finished +0.6, as second and third warmest forecasts (Roger Smith +0.7, Tom +0.5) tied for high score, this qualifies as ... ... ... an extreme forecast with Scotty Lightning (+1.5) taking a loss. DEN _ Finished +3.3, higher than warmest forecast (+2.7) (win for Roger Smith) PHX _ Finished +3.9 higher than warmest forecast (+2.5) (win for DonSutherland1) SEA _ Finished +4.1 higher than warmest forecast (+1.7) (win for BKViking)

Update for Saturday 19th ... a touch lower today and some records are a bit higher, so most stations now below record highs. I haven't tracked them but stations further north in central CA have also been up around 110 degrees. LOCATION ________ HIGH JUNE 19 _______ RECORDS Death Valley CA _____ 125 Needles CA _________ 121 ______________ 123 (2017) Palm Springs CA ____ 119 ______________ 119 (2016, 2017) tie Imperial CA _________ 117 ______________ 119 (2016) Thermal CA _________ 116 ______________ 120 (2016) Phoenix AZ __________115 ______________ 118 (2016, 2017) Yuma AZ ____________114 ______________ 120 (2016) Barstow CA _________ 114 ______________ 115 (2017) Las Vegas NV _______114 ______________ 114 (1940) tie ============================================

Here's the update for today (Friday June 18th) ... a few degrees cooler at some locations, not every reading was a record today, but still blistering hot ... LOCATION ________ HIGH JUNE 17 _______ RECORDS Death Valley CA _____ 124 Needles CA _________ 121 ______________ 119 (2017) Palm Springs CA ____ 119 ______________ 117 (2017) Thermal CA _________ 119 ______________ 119 (2015) tie Imperial CA _________ 118 ______________ 117 (1936, 2015) Phoenix AZ __________117 ______________ 115 (1989, 2015) Yuma AZ ____________114 ______________ 116 (1917, 1989, 2015) Barstow CA _________ 113 ______________ 112 (1985) Las Vegas NV _______113 ______________ 115 (1940) ============================================ (119 at Blythe CA, not finding the daily records for them)

Record heat has gripped the desert southwest region for several days now. On June 17th, these were some of the highs reported compared with previous records for the dates. LOCATION ________ HIGH JUNE 17 _______ RECORDS Death Valley CA ___ 128 Palm Springs CA ____ 123** ____________ 116 (1961) Needles CA _________ 120 ______________ 120 (1917) tie Imperial CA _________ 119 ______________ 115 (1971) Phoenix AZ __________118 ______________ 114 (1896, 2015) Thermal CA _________ 118 ______________ 114 (2008) Barstow CA _________ 117 ______________ 110 (1961, 2015, 2017) Yuma AZ ____________116 ______________ 115 (1896, 1981) Las Vegas NV _______115 ______________ 114 (1940) ============================================== ========================================= Synoptic situation _ 598 dm high (18z) near four corners (ne AZ etc) with 594-597 dm thickness generally over the region, surface heat low near PSP, 1003 mbs. The heat extends into parts of the Great Basin and central plains states. Highs at SLC of 107 on 15th have backed off slightly to high 90s past two days. High at DDC of 104F today tied record (1939,48).

Table of forecasts __ Seasonal Max 2021 FORECASTER ________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _BIS _ATL _IAH __ DEN _PHX _SEA Scotty Lightning ______________ 104 _ 101 __ 98 __ 97 _ 106 _ 105 _ 109 ____ 97 _ 117 __ 92 wxdude64 ____________________ 103 _ 100 _ 101 __ 99 _ 108 __ 99 _ 104 ___ 104 _ 117 __ 96 DonSutherland 1 ______________ 102 __ 96 __ 98 __ 97 _ 106 ___99 _ 103 ___ 102 _ 119 __ 94 Roger Smith __________________ 101 __ 99 _ 100 __ 98 _ 110 _ 101 _ 106 ___ 107 _ 119 __ 99 RJay __________________________101 __ 96 __ 99 _ 100 _ 106 ___99 _ 102 ___ 101 _ 119 __ 94 hudsonvalley21 _______________ 100 _ 100 __ 99 _ 100 _ 106 ___99 _ 103 ___ 103 _ 120 __ 99 Tom __________________________ 100 __ 98 __ 98 _ 101 _ 107 _ 101 _ 104 ___ 101 _ 121 __ 98 BKViking ______________________100 __ 98 __ 98 __ 98 _ 109 ___99 __ 98 ___ 106 _ 119 __ 95 so_whats_happening ___________ 99 __ 96 __ 98 __ 99 _ 108 _ 101 __ 99 ___ 104 _ 116 __ 94 wxallannj _______________________98 __ 96 __ 97 __ 96 _ 106 __ 97 __ 99 ___ 103 _ 121 __ 92 ___ consensus (mean) _________ 101 __ 98 __ 99 __ 99 _ 107 _ 100 _ 103 ___ 103 _ 119 __ 95 Highest to date __ (updated Jul 31) _____________ 97 __ 98 __100 __ 94 _ 107 __ 95 __ 99 ____102 __118 _ 108

100th anniversary of the Knickerbocker storm coming up in January. Also the 10th anniversary of the winter of 2011-12. Take yer pick.