Roger Smith

You're in the hunt for DCA though. Until Thursday at least.

Contest within a contest? BWI 2.2 DCA 1.9 IAD 6.1 RIC Tr (16th-17th)

Tracking anomalies and projections for December ... ______________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 11th ___ (10d anom) _ --0.2 _--0.3 _+0.2 ___ +6.0 _--2.4 _--2.1 ___ +8.9 _+2.2 _+4.4 21st ___ (20d anom) _ +0.6 _--0.1 _ --0.9 ___ +5.8 _+0.3 _--1.7 ___+2.0 _+0.2 _+4.9 11th ___ (p20d anom)_ --1.5 _--1.5 _--1.5 ___ +2.0 _--1.5 _--1.5 ___ +3.0 __0.0 _+1.0 11th ___ (p26d anom) _ --2.5 _--2.5 _--2.5 ___ 0.0 _ --2.0 _ --2.0 ___ 0.0 __ -1.0 _ 0.0 21st ___ (p31d anom) _ 0.0 __ 0.0 __--1.0 ___+3.0__ 0.0 _ --1.0 ___ +1.0 _+0.5 _+3.0 31st-1st __ finals ______+1.7_ +1.7_ +1.3 ___+5.1 _+0.8 _ +1.0 ____+3.1 _+0.4_+3.8 _____________________________________ (11th) _ The month started out rather cool in the east and quite warm in the west. These trends are reversing briefly, then much colder air is expected to arrive in a few days and persist with a few variations most of the rest of the month. Anomalies seem likely to fall towards negative values where not already there. (21st) _ Not quite as cold middle third as expected so anomalies have levelled off a bit higher than forecast. A further change applies to the original p26th as now the days 22nd-24th are looking quite mild in the east. The end of month anomalies will likely not be far from zero at several stations so I set them there, small to medium positives should be retained at ORD, DEN, PHX and SEA. As always DEN will be bouncing up and down with the passage of a strong low (now dumping snow at my place) tomorrow night, a few days of -15 type anomalies to follow a few near +10, then levelling off near normal end of month. Not warm enough to save my overly ambitious call. Provisional scoring to follow ... (31st - 1st Jan 2021) _ slowly but surely assembling the final results, my pace might be a bit more leisurely given the context but would expect to have December scored by noon to 2 p.m. NYD, then on to the final annual results, which as I mentioned in the thread subtitle, looks like a wide open free-for-all as far as 2nd to 5th places go, RodneyS has no doubt locked up the annual contest win, congrats to him. Posting final anomalies and estimates of them where not complete, scoring table will eventually conform to them but at any given moment it may not be updated from the earlier provisionals posted. (as of 0615 EST, all anomalies now final). (BOS having some issues, they posted their Dec CF6 with 31st missing, but that climate report is available, temps look sensible, 90.0" of snow likely some kind of bizarre system failure or the guy from Vermont dumped his load at Logan airport, not sure which).

Oh okay, I thought it might have been closer to average because with all that cold air around where I was (northeast of Toronto, we had a week where it never got above zero F) I figured the storm track must have been quite a bit to the south, I suppose it was just bad timing with the jet stream depressed but no energy. So maybe it will work out somewhat similar but with better timed energy. I do think the analogue will work out on a large scale but details like timing of energy can make a fairly substantial difference in a few places. Where I was, there was never all that much snow on the ground, wrong lake effect wind pattern (mostly NW, we did better with WNW) but some placed got absolutely buried in lake effect snow, for example, London ON. They had to go around and mark the positions of fire hydrants with 15 ft poles so the snowplows wouldn't shear them off. And all that was completely gone in about a week when it turned warm in mid to late February.

Here's my speculation ... not much will happen in December, until possibly late in the month, January will be quite variable and will bring one or two decent winter storm scenarios, February will continue that trend for about the first half then turn very warm, March will be a warmish month too, perhaps one late snowfall event even into early April. Overall, a fairly average winter but some good spells for winter enthusiasts, some not so great. Persistent west coast ridge development can be expected, downstream from that, two different patterns may oscillate, one would be highly amped flow favoring inland storm track and mild temperatures in your region, the other would be a broad trough with the polar vortex dropping into Hudson Bay and Quebec, possible snowfall events might come then as storm track would be something like the current event only with more cold air around in mid-winter. Best analogue would be 1975-76. Did you get much snow that winter? I was living in Ontario then, we had a lot of lake effect and some transient low pressure snowfalls and an early end to winter with record highs around Feb 25 to 29. The March 1976 storm track must have been through PA and NY because we had very heavy mixed falls for a few days, sleet and ice pellets, it all turned to rain and there was a severe flood when the heavy winter snow pack melted. From what I recall there were not a lot of coastal lows that winter.

18z GFS and 12z 72-84h GGEM each say flurries, out to sea with no significant northern stream development. Time for improvements to show up though, at least there is some upper support for potential 1-2" snowmaker. 18z GFS finishes run with 10-15" storm on 20th, wonder what reality will bring on that time scale? Personally I think this will be a fairly decent winter compared to some recent busts, eventually one or two significant events, with a strong signal for persistent west coast ridge development the odds favor some good winter scenarios for the eastern U.S.

Thread title needs an edit (Friday and Saturday would be Dec 4-5). This disturbance in the Gulf coast region came through my part of the world on Monday and we got about 2" of powder snow from it then. The speed with which the upper level energy then raced into the Gulf of Mexico was impressive. Whether anything else about it will be impressive remains to be seen, I agree with this cautious approach. Looks very prone to mixing, RGEM freezing line is not in a particularly good spot either at 48h.

I dropped into the forum to check that in fact NOV 2020 was warmest on record at NYC. I have a research thread on another weather forum (net-weather in the UK) outlining my research into climate records for Toronto (1840-2020) and more recently with a lot of assistance from Don Sutherland, added in comparative data for New York City. That part is all on page 2 of this thread (all Toronto stuff on page 1) ... https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/93113-toronto-180-a-north-american-data-base-of-180-years/#comments I have compared rankings of all months that overlap since 1869 and you'll find that in general there is close agreement. This past November didn't quite make it to top of the list for Toronto, 1975 held on and 2011, 2016 and 1931 were not passed either. As part of this research I have applied urban heat island filters to the temperature records of both sets of data. NYC is in an even larger city of course but urban heat islands don't grow much stronger after a city reaches a critical size, they grow in areal extent instead. So I've applied the same decade by decade changes to both data sets with the assumption that New York City had a small urban heat island at the start of its records, Toronto only began to acquire one after 1881. So although I've changed the temperature data sets by similar amounts per decade, I assume NYC has a larger urban heat island by 0.3 to 0.5 C (0.5 to 0.9 F) deg. That is an average of all weather conditions and of course the urban effect is much bigger than that in calm, clear weather. The total adjustment for the Toronto data was 1.1 C (2.0 F) deg applied in full to the years since 1980, with 0.1 reductions in the filter each decade before that, until one reaches "no urbanization" before 1881 (there may have been a small amount). Applied to NYC that means 1869 to 1880 would be a step down also but there could have been further steps down in any data before 1869 in stages so the NYC total urban heat island is presumed to be around 1.5 C (2.7 F) averaged over all data. This applies mostly to overnight temperatures and this is reflected in the count of new record high max and min temps since 1970 (have done the same study at both sites, the counts are similar, around 15% more than random expectation for record high maxima, and 120% more for record high minima.) At Toronto, 218 days have a new record high minimum since 1970, only 108 have a new record high maximum. About 10 have a new record low minimum and 25 a new record low maximum again showing the diurnal bias of the u.h.i. effect. You'll find in this link tables of rankings for raw temperature data and adjusted. It does give the more ancient data some chance to make an upward move in the rankings but seldom do the "way back" months push more than five to ten ranks ahead and usually not into the top ten. (Years in the middle decades get smaller boosts, and the boosts ended in 1980, assuming almost steady-state u.h.i. since then). There was a remarkably hot July in 1868 at Toronto, unfortunately that's the year before the NYC data begin, maybe some other source would show this, but one or two very hot summer months at Toronto were surprisingly cool at NYC, for example July 1916 and 1921 both top ten months at Toronto, rather average to cool at NYC. Many other cases though have more similar outcomes at both locations. There's a circulation type with a narrow ridge over the western Great Lakes and an offshore trough in the Atlantic that can result in that differential. Even so, just about all the record highs at each location are either the same dates, or within 1-2 days, or do no worse than fall into top five, so generally similar results. I think you have to get into the Midwest before you start seeing a whole different set of record highs and lows, certainly by the time you reach the central plains that would be true. I regularly update these tables and will probably put the same thread into some part of American Weather (not sure where is best suited) when I finish the project of creating an excel file with all data available. That is very close to completion (I am entering or proofing existing entries for 2019 today and 2020 tomorrow) but it would make sense to wait for 2020 to end then have this year complete as well. Eventually I will publish similar precip tables for NYC as I have done for Toronto. Once again Don S has been very helpful and I have all the raw data available, going through it to establish daily extremes and other useful info such as dry spells. The Toronto climate is more similar to NYC in temperature than precip, a dry month in each region may be closer to average or even a bit wetter than average that far afield. Snowfall does not correlate very well either, east coast storms miss Toronto on many occasions and Toronto snowstorms are often Apps runners or low-trajectory Colorado lows that warm up NYC. But some storms overlap. I am expecting a bit of a wild ride this winter, as many are saying, generally on the milder side of normal, but not a constant blowtorch situation and a few much colder intervals likely, mid to late January would be the most likely time.

Update on Four Seasons contest -- Final Results This contest tracks your seasonal performances. Ten points are awarded to top total score in each season, then 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2 points for 2nd-7th, and 1 point for anyone else who enters all three contests. This table shows the points awarded in the winter, spring and summer segments, followed by total points for the three autumn months (Sept, Oct, Nov) then the contest points generated. The table order is total points for the contest. FORECASTER __________ Winter, spring, summer pts __ Autumn totals __ Autumn pts ___ TOTAL POINTS RodneyS ____________________ 10 _____ 6 _____ 4 _______ 1844 ____________10 ____________ 30 BKViking _____________________ 6 _____ 2_____ 7 _______ 1827 _____________ 7 ____________ 22 DonSutherland 1 ______________5 ____ 10 _____ 2 _______ 1698 ____________ 4 ____________ 21 RJay _________________________ 1 _____ 5_____10 _______ 1725 ____________ 5 _____________21 hudsonvalley21 _______________4 _____ 7 _____ 6 _______ 1693 _____________3 ____________ 20 ______ Consensus ____________ 5 _____ 5 _____ 6 _______ 1706 _____________ 4 ____________ 20 wxallannj _____________________7 _____ 3 _____ 3 _______ 1645 _____________2 ____________ 15 Tom __________________________3 _____ 4_____ 5 _______ 1635 _____________ 1 ____________ 13 Roger Smith __________________ 1 ______1 ____ 1 _______ 1761 _____________ 6 _____________ 9 Scotty Lightning ______________ 2 _____ 1_____ 1 _______ 1556 _____________ 1 _____________ 5 wxdude64 ____________________ 1 _____ 1_____ 1 _______ 1549 _____________ 1 _____________ 4 _________ Normal _____________ 1 ______ 1 ____ 1 _______ 1379 _____________ 1 _____________ 4 Brian5671 ____________________ 1 ______1 ____ 1 _______ ------ ______________ -- ______________3 Jakkelwx _____________________-- ______ -- ____ 1 _______ (710) ____________ 1 ______________ 2 _________________________________________________________ (note Jakkelwx only entered one of three contests, other part time entrants not scored but he played all three in summer to earn a point there so I added a point for partial scoring). Congrats to RodneyS for winning the Four Seasons portion of the annual contest ... BKViking made a move to reach second place, three more all from NYC are closely bunched in tie for 3rd (Don Sutherland 1 and RJay then hudsonvalley21 in 5th).

Winter Snowfall contest 2020-2021 -- Table of entries Any other entries welcome, deadline Dec 3 midnight (edits accepted also -- forecast includes any already measured to spring end of season) (DEN to date 10.0" ORD 0.7" DTW 3.5" BUF 0.8" and BTV 2.7" ) at end of Nov ... updated totals will appear in the table of forecasts below. FORECASTER ______ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BUF __ DEN _ SEA _ BTV snowfall to Dec 17 ___ Tr __ 10.5 _ 17.3 ___ 0.7 __ 9.2 __ 9.6 ___ 15.1 __ 0.0 __ 8.5 wxallannj __________ 21.0 _ 29.0 _ 37.0 __ 43.0 _ 47.0 _ 70.0 __ 51.0 __ 5.2 _ 77.0 Tom _______________ 18.1 _ 29.8 _ 42.5 __ 43.3 _ 44.1 _102.5__ 59.6 __ 4.2 _ 78.3 hudsonvalley21 ____ 16.3 _ 30.4 _ 44.5 __ 39.7 _ 48.2 _ 87.9 __ 61.1 __ 6.8 _ 83.2 Scotty Lightning ____15.0 _ 25.0 _ 40.0 __ 50.0 _ 40.0 _125.0__ 75.0 __ 3.0 _ 90.0 Roger Smith _______ 14.5 _ 28.2 _ 60.5 __ 35.5 _ 39.9 _ 80.5 __ 55.5 _ 12.5 _ 90.5 wxdude64 _________ 13.2 _ 29.7 _ 45.9 __ 41.7 _ 44.2 _ 97.7 __ 73.2 __ 7.1 _ 84.1 RJay ________________8.0 _ 20.0 _ 35.0 __ 40.0 _ 40.0 _ 75.0 __ 65.0 __ 4.0 _ 65.0 Don Sutherland1 ____ 6.0 _ 11.5 _ 28.0 __ 38.5 _ 44.0 _ 87.0 __ 57.5 __ 3.4 _ 72.9 RodneyS ____________ 4.4 __ 8.5 _ 20.0 __ 31.6 _ 38.0 _ 78.9 __ 55.5 __ 5.1 _ 66.6 __ consensus _______14.5 _ 28.2 _ 40.0 __ 40.0 _ 44.1 _ 87.0 __ 59.6 __ 5.1 _ 78.3 _________________________________________________________________________ Table of forecasts for December 2020 FORECASTER ________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Roger Smith _________ +2.7 _ +2.5 _ +1.8 __ +1.9 _ +1.2 _ +2.8 ___ +7.9 _ +3.5 _ +2.4 BKViking _____________+2.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.2 __ +0.2 _ +0.6 _ +1.0 ___ +2.4 _ +1.9 _ +0.2 Tom _________________ +1.7 _ +1.3 _ +1.4 __ --0.1 _ +0.2 _ +0.8 ___ +1.1 _ +0.9 _ +0.4 RJay _________________+1.5 _ +2.0 _ +2.5 __ +1.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ +3.0 _ +2.0 _ +1.8 hudsonvalley21 ______+1.3 _ +1.6 _ +1.5 __ +1.8 _ +0.2 _ +0.2 ___ +2.1 _ +2.1 _ +2.3 ___ Consensus _______+1.2 _ +1.6 _ +1.8 __ +1.1 _ +0.1 _ +0.6 ___ +2.2 _ +1.7 _ +1.0 wxallannj ____________ +1.1 _ +1.9 _ +2.4 __ +1.2 _ --0.7 _ +0.4 ___ +2.2 _ +1.6 _ +1.5 DonSutherland 1 _____+1.0 _ +1.5 _ +1.9 __ +2.3 _ --0.4 _ --0.1 ___ +2.6 _ +1.8 _ +3.0 Scotty Lightning _____ +0.5 _ +0.5 _ +0.5 __ +0.5 _ +1.0 _ +1.5 ___ --0.5 _ +1.0 __ 0.0 RodneyS _____________+0.1 _ +0.9 _ +1.7 __ +2.3 __ 0.0 _ +2.1 ___ --0.6 _ +0.9 _ +0.5 ___ Normal ____________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 wxdude64 ____________--0.1 _ +0.2 _ +0.2 __ --0.5 _ --0.9 _ --0.6 ___ +0.8 _ +1.1 _ --0.3 ______________________________________________________ Coldest forecasts in blue, Normal is coldest for NYC, BOS, PHX. Warmest forecasts in red, a check of the extreme forecast summary (Nov thread) shows that about half of our warmest forecasts also score highest (one tenth of coldest forecasts do so). Counting the losses in that table tells me that one tenth of second highest forecasts also score highest, so going high in general is 60% likely to produce a good score. Timing is everything though.

Good, I won't need to look at the old penalty time clock in this ultimate month of the contest ... snowfall contests duly noted here or over there in NOV, will get a table together for those soon. Could see some wild swings in temperature this month, I feel, generally mild but a few very cold days. +2.7 _ +2.5 _ +1.8 _ +1.9 _ +1.2 _ +2.8 _ +7.9 _ +3.5 _ +2.4 Good luck (I think the big battle is for second looking at these forecasts, nobody has enough differential on RodneyS to come anywhere near scoring 400 extra points which is what would be needed).

< < < < < ........ <<<< ---- ====== Annual Scoring (Jan-Nov) 2020 ====== ---- >>>> .......> > > > > Numbers in red denote highest cumulative scores for each of nine locations. Numbers in bold black type denote highest subtotals for regions. Posting this slightly ahead of final values which won't change much ... so December forecasters can see where they stand. Good luck ! FORECASTER ______________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__ c/e __DEN_PHX_SEA__west ___ TOTAL RodneyS ___________________728_ 746_ 838 __2312 __646 _660_742__2088 __4400 __724_715_768_ 2207 ____6607 Don Sutherland.1 ___________688 _756_798 __2242 __597 _654 _756 __2007 __4249 __526_764_716_ 2006 ____6255 RJay _______________________726 _749 _737 __2212 __592 _672 _709 __1973 __4185 __636_700_718_ 2054 ____6239 hudsonvalley21 ____________623 _712 _813 __2148 __543 _636 _783 __1962 __4110 __585_772_751_ 2108 ____6218 ___ Consensus _____________630 _686 _821 __2137 __521 _648_788 __1957 __4094 __572_747_754_ 2073 ____ 6167 BKViking __________________ 623 _687 _786 __1996 __549 _593 _753__1895 __3891 __621_772_806_ 2199 ____ 6090 wxallannj __________________662 _756 _813 __2231 __471 _647 _768__1886 __4117 __568_691_698_ 1957 ____6074 Tom _______________________627 _670 _779 __2076 __478 _681 _740__1899 __3975 __559_732_699_ 1990 ____5965 Scotty Lightning ____________540 _530 _658 __1728 __454 _649_822__1925 __3653 __506_670_734_ 1910 ____ 5563 Roger Smith ________________564 _605 _704 __1873__559 _709 _736__2004 __3877 __ 558_522_530_ 1610 ____5487 wxdude64 __________________523 _561 _666 __1750__451 _560 _766__1777 __3527 __ 528_697_630_ 1855 ____5382 ___ Normal _________________414 _432 _564 __1410 __382 _571 _662__1615 __3025 __448_522_ 694_ 1664 ____4689 Brian5671 _ (8/11) _________ 494 _502 _526 __1522 __323 _485 _545__1353 __2875 __318_478_542_ 1438 ____ 4313 JakkelWx _ (7/11) __________ 380 _395 _514 __1289__370 _405 _532__1317 __2606 __390 _422 _330_ 1142 ____3748 yoda _ (4/11) _______________192 _ 227 _200 __ 619 __152_250 _311 __ 713 ___1332 __209 _347_210 __ 766_____2098 rclab _ (1/11) ________________05 __ 00 __ 00 __ 005 __ 00 _ 11 _ 24 ___ 035 ____ 040 ___ 56 _ 88 _ 66 __ 210 _____ 250 dwave _ (1/11) ______________ 72 __ 75 __ 48 __ 195 __ 12 _ 25 _ 10 ___ 047 ____ 242 ___ 16 _ 34 _ 00 __ 050 _____ 292 Maxim _ (1/11) ______________00 __ 00 __ 00 __ 000 __ 00 _ 20 _ 46 ___ 066 ____ 066 ___ 32 _ 50 _ 34 __ 116 _____ 182 Rhino16 _ (1/11) _____________00 __ 05 __ 20 __ 025 __ 00 _ 13 _ 30 ___ 043 ____ 068 ___ 04 _ 52 _ 54 __ 110 _____ 178 ============================================================================== Extreme forecast standings January to November 76 of 99 forecasts so far have qualified for an extreme forecast award for the warmest forecast(s), 53 for warmest and 23 for coldest. FORECASTER ____ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _ Apr _ May _ Jun __ Jul _ Aug _ Sep _Oct _Nov _ Standings to date Roger Smith ______ ---- __ ---- __ 1-0 __ 4-2 __ 1-0 __ ----- __ ---- __ 4-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-1 _ 6-0 _ 17-3 RodneyS _________ 2-0 __ 3-0 __ 0-1 __ ---- __ 2-0 __ 2-0 __ 0-1 __0-1 _ 4-1 _ ---- _ ---- __ 13-4 RJay _____________ ----- __ ----- __ 3-0 __ ---- __ ----- __ 1-0 __ 3-0 __ ---- _ 3-0 _ 2-0 _ ---- _ 12-0 Brian 5671 _______ 4-0 __ 1-0 __ 3-1 __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ ---- __ 1-1 __ ---- _ ---- _ ---- __ ---- __ 11-2 DonSutherland1___0-0 __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ ---- __ 2-0 __ 2-0 __1-0 _ ---- _ 0-1 _ 2-0 __ 10-1 Scotty Lightning __ 2-0 __ 0-0 __ ---- __ 1-0 __----- __ ----- __ 1-0 __1-0 _ 0-1 _ 2-0 _ ---- ____6-1 Normal ___________ 1-0 __ 0-1 __ ---- __ 1-0 __ ---- __ 2-0 __ ---- __ ---- _ 0-1 _ 1-0 _ ---- ____ 5-2 Tom ______________ 1-0 __ 0-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ 1-0 __ ----- __ ---- __ ---- _ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ ---- ____ 4-0 yoda ______________ 0-0 __ 1-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ----- __ ---- __ ---- _ 1-1 _ 2-0 _ ---- ____ 4-1 RClab _____________ 2-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ----- __ ----- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- _ ---- _ ---- ____ 2-0 wxdude64 ________ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ 1-0 __ ---- __ ----- __ ---- __ ---- __ 1-0 _ ---- _ ---- ____ 2-0 Jakkelwx __________ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ 1-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ 1-0 _ ---- _ ---- ____ 2-0 wxallannj __________ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ 1-1 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- _ 1-0 _ ---- ____ 2-1 hudsonvalley21 ____ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ----- __ 1-0 __ ---- __ ---- _ ---- _ ---- ____ 1-0 ================================================================================ BEST SCORES -- Totals for January to November Forecasters are listed in same order as annual points standings. Ties are possible which is why some locations have more than total of months best scores, also, if Normal or consensus achieve a top score, the actual forecaster with high score gets an award also. From Oct to Dec, high scores are always given among regular annual entrants when "occasional" entrants take high score awards. (* marks these) FORECASTER ____________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA__west___Months RodneyS _________________ 2 ___ 1 ___ 2 ____ 2 ____ 3 ___ 0 ___ 2 ___ 3 ____ 3 ____ 1 ___ 2 ___ 3 ___ 3 _____ 4 _ Jan, Feb, May, Sep DonSutherland.1 __________1 ___ 3 ___ 2*____2 ____ 3 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 2 ____ 2*____1 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 2 _____ 2 _ Mar, Apr RJay _____________________ 3 ___ 2 ___ 0 ____ 3 ____ 1 ___ 3*___0 ___ 2 ____ 2 ____ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 _____ 2 _ Jun, Jul hudsonvalley21 ___________0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 3 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 1*___Oct* BKViking _________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 _____ 0 ___ Consensus ____________0 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 wxallannj _________________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 2*___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 _____ 0 Tom ______________________0 ___ 2 ___ 2 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1*_____0 Scotty Lightning __________ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___2*___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 2 ___ 2 ___ 2 ___ 1 _____ 0 Roger Smith ______________ 2 ___ 3 ___ 3 ____ 2 ____ 2 ___ 3 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 _____ 2 __ Aug.Nov wxdude64 ________________0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 _____ Normal _____________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 2 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 _____ 1 ___ Apr Brian5671 ________________ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 0 _____ 0 Jakkelwx _________________1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 Yoda _____________________0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 _____ 1 ___ Oct RClab ____________________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 _____ 0 ____________________________________________________________________________________ * includes one win in this category among regular entrants only (Yoda had higher score). ... this rule only applies in fourth quarter of season. ... not retroactive.

Final scoring for November 2020 -- based on the final values posted above (tracker post), these are the scores for Nov 2020. * Tom's small late penalties are shown with asterisks per point lost, mostly 1 pt, one instance of 2 pts. -- no minimum progression invoked for low scoring locations as one raw score always above 60. -- a reminder, when actuals are > 5.0 anom, scoring differentials drop to 1 point so for ORD at +7.1 scores for forecasts 0.0 to 2.1 get same number of points as forecast units of 0.1, then two points from 2.1 to 5.0, had any forecasts been 5.1 to 7.1 those would have lost scoring points at 1 per 0.1 also. (but none were). -- DEN and NYC have finished just slightly into the 5+ range, ATL was +4.9 and DCA +4.7 (see previous post for the final anomalies). FORECASTER __________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent_ c/e __DEN_PHX_SEA_west _ TOTALS Roger Smith ____________ 96 _ 84 _ 84 __264 __ 73 _ 86 _ 86 __ 245 __ 511 __ 00 _ 16 _ 52 __ 068 _____ 579 BKViking _______________ 54 _ 44 _ 80 __ 178 __ 06 _ 44 _ 56 __ 106 __ 284 __ 40 _ 60 _ 94 __ 194 _____ 478 RJay ____________________46 _ 38 _ 76 __ 160 __ 20 _ 22 _ 26 __ 068 __ 228 __ 36 _ 66 _ 78 __ 180 _____ 408 Don Sutherland.1________26 _ 20 _ 56 __ 102 __ 13 _ 10 _ 40 __ 063 __ 165 __ 68 _ 96 _ 76 __ 240 _____ 405 wxallannj _______________ 46 _ 48 _ 70 __ 164 __ 14 _ 28 _ 34 __ 076 __ 240 __ 20 _ 46 _ 66 __ 132 _____ 372 hudsonvalley21 _________22 _ 18 _ 52 __ 092 __ 04 _ 16 _ 50 __ 070 __ 162 __ 28 _ 70 _ 92 __ 190 _____ 352 Consensus ______________32 _ 22 _ 56 __ 110 __ 10 _ 26 _ 44 __ 080 __ 190 __ 14 _ 48 _ 94 __ 156 _____ 346 RodneyS _______________ 20 _ 04 _ 48 __ 072 __ 29 _ 42 _ 44 __ 115 __ 187 __ 03 _ 46 _ 96 __ 145 _____ 332 Tom ____ (-2%) _________ 35*_ 22 _ 55*__112 __ 00 _ 33*_ 43*__076 __ 188 __ 06 _ 47*_90**_ 143 _____ 331 Scotty Lightning ________ 26 _ 08 _ 46 __ 080 __ 05 _ 22 _ 56 __ 083 __ 163 __ 00 _ 46 _ 82 __ 128 _____ 291 wxdude64 ______________14 _ 10 _ 54 __ 080 __ 02 _ 12 _ 42 __ 056 __ 136 __ 00 _ 42 _ 90 __ 132 _____ 268 Normal _________________06 _ 00 _ 36 __ 042 __ 00 _ 02 _ 26 __ 028 __ 070 __ 00 _ 26 _ 82 __ 108 _____ 178 _______________________________________________________________ EXTREME FORECAST REPORT All but SEA have the warmest forecast in play, and all are outright wins. DCA, NYC, BOS, ORD, ATL and IAH will be heading to Roger Smith for 6 wins, BOS was close but the last minute warm sector pushed the outcome to +3.2. Most of these outcomes other than BOS were higher than the high forecast by a degree or so. DEN and PHX are going to Don Sutherland with high forecasts there, outcomes also a bit higher than forecasts. SEA went to the fourth highest forecast for high score, so is the only non-qualifier this month. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Will post the annual update after these scores confirmed, but apparently the race has tightened up considerably -- almost everyone in the hunt gained a bit on the contest leader RodneyS. My previous total was too far back for this month to bring me into that mix (had the west worked out as well as the east, different story). But at least I am leaving Normal in my dust. However, the annual scoring update shows that the big contest now is for second place. A review of the December entries shows that RodneyS has an insurmountable lead as the forecasts he filed for December are relatively close to those of his nearest competitors, scoring differentials are not close to providing any potential for the field to pass RodneyS so congrats in advance. About six people are in contention to finish second and the forecast differentials are large enough to make the outcome suspenseful.

Predict the temperature anomalies in deg F for these nine locations (relative to 1981-2010) ... DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ... and check last month if you haven't already entered the winter snowfall contest (closes with this deadline).

That looks generally similar to winter 1975-76. I recall that one producing about two weeks of intense cold in the Great Lakes region (mid to late Jan) and record warmth by end of February. There was quite a long stretch of heavy mixed precip at the start of March (in southern/central ON at least, probably also in the Midwest U.S.). My thoughts for the winter are fairly similar by the way. I think it will be more about week to week variability than long-term trends, with the warming more pronounced towards end of February. Some part of January could be a brief east coast wintry spell but I can't see it dominating south of the lower Great Lakes. Great Lakes water temps must be well above average given the very warm November, similar to 1975. Then there was a spell of extremely heavy lake effect snow in Dec 1975 and Jan 1976, London ON had a state of emergency from huge snowdrifts created during this period. Good luck with this.

One half-decent storm and two thirds of the field are eliminated. I'll take those odds. Otherwise would this be three bad winters in a row? Seems harsh.

Iota now a hurricane and forecast to become a major soon, if so, the count will reach 30/13/6 (currently 30/13/5). For 30/13/6 these are the scores using the contest method and the beta method developed to give a more balanced comparison in this rather unusual season with its numerous weak tropical storms earlier inflating the count ratio. Updated scoring summary for 30/13/6 (30/13/5 in brackets) FORECASTER ____________________St_ Hu_ Maj ____ Errors ___ Points Windspeed ______________________ 22 _11 _ 6 _____ 820 _____ 11 (10) WxWatcher007 __________________ 21 _11 _ 5 _____ 921 _____ 02 (03) (all others drop below 00) ================================================================= A more comparable scoring system that responds to the problem of so many weak tropical storms in the count is shown below. This one weights the number of storms at 40% but errors are more linear (average of difference, difference, and half of diff squared). The weighting for hurricanes and majors is 30% each and the scoring for those is done the same way as above Results are similar for rank ordering but perhaps capture the skill of the various forecasts a bit better ... Points for 30/13/6 FORECASTER ____________________St_ Hu_ Maj ____ Errors ___ Points Windspeed ______________________ 22 _11 _ 6 _____ 8 2 0 _____ 81 WxWatcher007 __________________ 21 _11 _ 5 _____ 9 2 1 _____ 76.5 Roger Smith _____________________ 20 _13 _ 7 ____10 0 1 _____ 75.7 NutleyBlizzard ___________________ 20 _12 _ 4 ____10 1 2 _____ 72.7 Orangeburg Wx __________________ 20 _11 _ 5 ____10 2 1 _____ 72.7 Snowlover2 ______________________19 _12 _ 5 ____11 1 1 _____ 70.5 NCforecaster89 __________________20 _10 _ 5 ____10 3 1 _____ 69.7 Rhino16 _________________________ 18 _14 _5 ____12 1 1 _____ 66 Rtd208 __________________________ 18 _12 _7 ___ 12 1 1 _____ 66 Thunderman _____________________19 _10 _ 5 ____11 3 1 _____ 65.5 ___ Consensus (means) ________ 18.5_10.3_4.9 __11.5, 2.7, 1.1 __ 63.8 BlueDXer75 ______________________19 _ 9 _ 5 ____11 4 1 _____ 61.5 NorthHillsWx ____________________ 19 _ 9 _ 4 ___ 11 4 2 _____ 59.5 Newman _________________________18 _10 _4___ 12 3 2 _____ 59 JakkelWx ________________________ 17 _10 _6___ 13 3 0 _____ 57.2 Yoda _____________________________18 _ 8 _ 4___ 12 5 2 _____ 50 Alfoman _________________________ 17 _ 9 _ 5___ 13 4 1 _____ 52.2 Jaxjagman ______________________ 16 _ 9 _ 5____14 4 1 _____ 47 NHC (mid-range) _________________16 _ 8 _ 4.5__14 5 1.5 ___ 41.3 CSU _____________________________ 16 _ 8 _ 4____14 5 2 _____ 40 Olafminesaw ____________________ 15 _ 8 _ 4 ___ 15 5 2 _____ 34.5 Crownweather ___________________ 15 _ 8 _ 3____15 5 3 _____ 31.5 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

True, I will update once Iota actually does the deal on hurricane and major. If this happens, I will be tied with several others for the least error stats (0,1 or 1,0) on hurricanes and majors, but the extra TS has sunk me out of any score at all in the contest scoring method (a), will maybe move up slightly in the order of beta scoring effort as will a couple of others.

First look at anomalies and projections ... ____________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 11th ____ (anom 10d) ______ +4.0 _ +6.3 _ +4.5 __+12.9 _+4.5 _ +2.2 __ +10.5 _ +4.0 __ 0.0 21st ____ (anom 20d) ______ +3.7 _ +3.8 _ +2.9 __ +7.9 _ +4.4 _ +3.5 ___ +7.9 _ +4.0 _ +0.7 11th ____ (anom 20d) ______ +3.0 _ +4.0 _ +3.5 ___ +7.0 _+3.0 _ +2.0 ___ +2.5 _ +1.5 _ --1.0 11th ____ (anom 30d) ______ +2.5 _ +3.0 _ +2.5 ___ +5.0 _+3.5 _ +2.0 ___ +3.5 _ +2.0 _ --1.0 21st ____ (anom 30d) ______ +3.0 _ +3.0 _ +2.0 ___ +5.0 _+3.5 _ +3.5 ___ +5.0 _ +3.0 __ 0.0 29th ____ (anom 30d) ______ +4.5 _ +5.0 _ +3.0 ___ +7.0 _ +5.0 _ +4.0 ___ +5.5 _ +4.0 _ +1.0 _____ final anomalies _______+4.7 _ +5.2 _ +3.2 ___ +7.1 _ +4.9 _ +3.7 ___ +5.4 _+3.7 _ +0.9 ================================================ This month I plan to update only around the 20th and end of month anomalies. As of the 11th, the month had started out quite warm in the west and changed to colder than normal a few days ago. The record-breaking warmth then spread into the central and eastern states. Anomalies were largest in the Great Lakes region (STL not in our contest had an anomaly of +8). Projections are based on a much less pronounced warmer than average middle third and a slightly warmer final third for most regions. There will be anomalous cold at times in the upper Midwest, plains states and interior Pac NW, but it will be shallow and its intrusions further south will be moderated quickly. Next update 21st. ... Those who would still like to join the winter snowfall contest can post or edit up to then, with reminders going out to no-shows, then a table of forecasts will mark end of entries. 21st _ Looking quite mild across the southeast, Gulf coast, more variable further north to end of month. Some decrease likely in most of the current large positive anomalies. 29th _ Have edited in the new projections as of today. These include CFS to 28th and climate data for 29th, model projections for 30th. Provisional scoring will follow shortly. 1st Dec _ Editing in the final anomalies as they appear, and updating the scoring tables already posted (scores now final as of 1030h EST).

I have updated the two scoring tables for Theta's addition to the never-ending total (29/12/5 now). With Iota forming, count is 30/12/5 and could be 30/13/6 if it does become a major hurricane. Will update the scoring later in the life cycle of Iota but can say that anyone at 20 named storms now drops to zero in the contest scoring (a) version, the average change to the beta scoring is -3 or -4 with each new named storm although if you have hurricanes or majors left to "give" your score could stay level.

My main disagreement would be early in the winter for interior western regions, I suspect it will turn out a lot colder than shown. That would only have the effect of shifting your depicted warm core a bit further east to the mid-Atlantic states possibly (with more of an up and down regime in the central plains states). Otherwise I could certainly see the scenario of a relatively mild winter getting milder towards February. This may be one of those winters like 2015-16 with a lot of mild weather but one great winter storm anyway (for the east).

BWI _ too far north to miss ... 27.5" DCA _ too far east to miss ... 19.9" IAD _ too far west to miss ... 26.8" RIC _ too far south to miss ... 15.5" SBY _ too far southeast to snow (10.5" not my tiebreaker) LYH _ too far northwest to miss ... 30.1" (tiebreaker) conclusion _ not too shabby middle of the pack winter ahead.

You are sitting on a perfect forecast of hurricanes and majors, which is no small accomplishment. If we had ended up 24/12/5 then your score in the conventional method would be 35/50 and the leaders would have had 45 and 43. About four or five of these 28 named storms were very short-lived and marginal (in my opinion), so really your forecast in the real world was quite good. In this slightly bizarro world, we are all left to fend for ourselves.

Table of forecasts for Nov 2020 FORECASTER ___________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Roger Smith ____________ +4.5 _ +4.3 _ +4.0 ___ +4.7 _ +4.2 _ +3.0 ___ --2.0 _ --0.5 _ --1.5 BKViking _______________ +2.4 _ +2.3 _ +2.2 ___ +0.6 _ +2.1 _ +1.5 ___ +2.2 _ +1.7 _ +0.6 wxallannj _______________ +2.0 _ +2.5 _ +1.7 ___ +1.4 _ +1.3 _ +0.4 ___ +1.2 _ +1.0 _ --0.8 RJay ____________________+2.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.0 ___ +2.0 _ +1.0 __ 0.0 ___ +2.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.0 Tom ____ (-2%) __________ +1.5 _ +1.2 _ +1.0 ___ --0.2 _ +1.6 _ +0.9 ___ +0.5 _ +1.1 _ +0.5 Consensus ______________+1.3 _ +1.2 _ +1.0 ___ +1.0 _ +1.2 _ +0.9 ___ +0.9 _ +1.1 _ +0.6 Don Sutherland.1________+1.0 _ +1.1 _ +1.0 ___ +1.3 _ +0.4 _ +0.7 ___ +3.6 _ +3.5 _ +2.1 Scotty Lightning ________ +1.0 _ +0.5 _ +0.5 ___ +0.5 _ +1.0 _ +1.5 ____ 0.0 _ +1.0 __ 0.0 hudsonvalley21 _________+0.8 _ +1.0 _ +0.8 ___ +0.4 _ +0.7 _+1.2 ___ +1.6 _ +2.2 _ +1.3 RodneyS _______________ +0.7 _ +0.3 _ +0.6 ___ +2.5 _ +2.0 _ +0.9 ___ +0.3 _ +1.0 _ +1.1 wxdude64 ______________ +0.4 _ +0.7 _ +0.9 ___ +0.2 _ +0.5 _ +0.8 ___ --0.2 _ +0.8 _ +0.4 Normal __________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ______________________________________________________________________ warmest forecasts in red, coldest in blue ... Normal is colder for DCA, NYC, BOS, ATL and (tied) IAH. snowfall forecasts can be added to your post or submitted separately, up to mid-month, will signal a deadline.

Updated scoring summary for 29/12/5 _ table has been updated in more recent post FORECASTER ____________________St_ Hu_ Maj ____ Errors ___ Points Windspeed ______________________ 22 _11 _ 6 _____ 711 _____ 20 WxWatcher007 __________________ 21 _11 _ 5 _____ 810 _____ 13 NutleyBlizzard ___________________ 20 _12 _ 4 _____ 901 _____ 04 Orangeburg Wx __________________ 20 _11 _ 5 _____ 910 _____ 04 NCforecaster89 __________________20 _10 _ 5 _____ 920 _____ 02 Roger Smith _____________________ 20 _13 _ 7 _____ 912 _____ 01 Snowlover2 ______________________19 _12 _ 5 _____1000_____ 00 Thunderman _____________________19 _10 _ 5 _____1020_____ 00 NorthHillsWx ____________________ 19 _ 9 _ 4 _____ 1031 _____00 BlueDXer75 ______________________19 _ 9 _ 5 _____ 1030 _____00 (all others drop further below 00) ================================================================= A more comparable scoring system that responds to the problem of so many weak tropical storms in the count is shown below. This one weights the number of storms at 40% but errors are more linear (average of difference, difference, and half of diff squared). The weighting for hurricanes and majors is 30% each and the scoring for those is done the same way as above Results are similar for rank ordering but perhaps capture the skill of the various forecasts a bit better ... FORECASTER ____________________St_ Hu_ Maj ____ Errors ___ Points Windspeed ______________________ 22 _11 _ 6 _____ 711 _____ 85 WxWatcher007 __________________ 21 _11 _ 5 _____ 810 _____ 83 NutleyBlizzard ___________________ 20 _12 _ 4 _____ 901 _____ 80 Orangeburg Wx __________________ 20 _11 _ 5 _____ 910 _____ 80 NCforecaster89 __________________20 _10 _ 5 _____ 920 _____ 78 Roger Smith _____________________ 20 _13 _ 7 _____ 912 _____ 77 Snowlover2 ______________________19 _12 _ 5 _____1000 _____ 76 Thunderman _____________________19 _10 _ 5 _____1020 _____ 76 ___ Consensus (means) ________ 18.5_10.3_4.9 __10.5, 1.7, 0.1 __ 75.0 BlueDXer75 ______________________19 _ 9 _ 5 _____1030 _____ 71 Rhino16 _________________________ 18 _14 _ 5 ____1120 _____ 70 Rtd208 __________________________ 18 _12 _ 7 ____1102 _____ 70 NorthHillsWx ____________________ 19 _ 9 _ 4 _____1031 _____ 70 Newman _________________________18 _10 _ 4 ____1121 _____ 70 JakkelWx ________________________ 17 _10 _ 6 ____1221 _____ 64 Yoda _____________________________18 _ 8 _ 4 ____ 1141 _____ 63 Alfoman _________________________ 17 _ 9 _ 5 _____1230 _____62 Jaxjagman ______________________ 16 _ 9 _ 5 _____1330 _____ 62 NHC (mid-range) _________________16 _ 8 _ 4.5 ___13 4 0.5 __ 54.5 CSU _____________________________ 16 _ 8 _ 4 _____1341 _____ 54 Olafminesaw ____________________ 15 _ 8 _ 4 _____1441 _____ 47 Crownweather ___________________ 15 _ 8 _ 3 _____1442 _____ 45 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Folks, give yourselves a pat on the back, as a group and in almost all cases, we came out ahead of the experts (I know, some of you are qualified experts). Given that the "real" count is maybe 24,12,5 with a bit of an atmosphere of find every possible marginal contender, I think the above scoring system is probably a better fit to the real differences between forecasts and the "reality" we now have (don't get me wrong, we would be into the Greek alphabet even with a very strict set of rules to eliminate the marginals, and that is still a very solid 2nd to 2005 which maybe could have had one or two more under similar counting procedures? ... matter of opinion to be certain).