Roger Smith

Tiebreaker fully explained in my recent post (before the table of forecasts above the post from A777) ... basically, highest error is eliminated in two stages, if that fails to separate, then it's order of entry into the contest. Since you probably edited (going by quotes) can you estimate when you edited? I really don't expect the tie-breaker situation to go as far as order of entry especially for a forecast like your own which is well separated from others and unlikely to generate similar errors at four locations (not saying you can't win though, just unlikely to be tied). (example) ... two tied with total departure of five, 2, 0, 2, 1 and 3, 1, 1, 0 ... the 2021 beats the 3110. ... two tied at 2,0,2,1 and 2,1,1,1 ... The 2111 beats the 2021 on second elimination. Concept is basically the same as sudden death elimination in a golf tournament. First hole is high score. Second hole is the remaining high score. Then darkness falls and we go into the clubhouse to settle it. In general, entries are still accepted to the end of the day, 06z tonight is the deadline. Edits are accepted too but will change order of entry stat.

Decided to work on the table of entries mainly because I can now easily spot late edits and change the order of entry. I am aware that WxWatcher007 edited his original post but probably not that long after posted? anyway, won't matter as it looks to be in a range where ties would be unlikely to go to order of entry anyway. Will be proofreading this to make sure I have the right numbers in the right places, some people entered in a different order so check your table entry, if you think it's wrong after the deadline, let me know (I won't be finished proofreading this until later this evening). Just to clarify, you may edit up to the deadline, and further entries are welcome, will be edited into this table. Use the table to get an idea of what values are taken. So far it turns out that two entries are identical (CAPE and WxUSAF). Table of entries for Mid-Atlantic summer max 2021 contest Order of entry is regardless of editing unless the forecaster chooses to inform the organizer of edit time, in which case the order will be amended to reflect the time of editing. Order of entry (the number in brackets) is a last resort parameter for separating ties, after two rounds of "largest error" determination. See June 12 post for details on tiebreaking this year. As a courtesy I will concede to anyone on order of entry if that becomes an issue -- in other words, I cannot win this contest on order of entry. The table of entries follows the order of warmest DCA to coolest DCA, with IAD a secondary and BWI a tertiary factor in setting the table order. FORECASTER _________________ DCA _ IAD _ BWI _ RIC George BM (2) _________________ 107 _ 106 _ 107 _ 108 MillvilleWx (6) __________________105 _ 102 _ 102 _ 103 vastateofmind (11) _____________104 _ 102 _ 104 _ 103 toolsheds (16) _________________ 104 _ 100 _ 104 _ 101 wxdude64 (5) __________________ 103 _ 101 _ 103 _ 104 Rhino16 (3) ____________________ 103 _ 101 _ 101 _ 105 H2O (13) _______________________102 _ 103 _ 104 _ 103 Weather53 (25) _________________102 _ 101 _ 103 _ 103 Prince Frederick Wx (10) _______ 102 _ 100 _ 105 _ 104 CAPE (1) ______________________ 102 _ 100 _ 103 _ 103 WxUSAF (7) ____________________102 _ 100 _ 103 _ 103 yoda (15) ______________________102 _ 100 _ 102 _ 104 SnowenOutThere (24) __________101 _ 104 _ 103 _ 103 Roger Smith (--) ________________101 _ 102 _ 103 _ 104 GramaxRefugee (12) ___________101 _ 102 _ 102 _ 100 ___ Consensus (mean of 26) ____101 _ 101 _ 102 _ 102 NorthArlington101 (14) ________ 101 _ 100 _ 103 _ 104 storm pc (9) ___________________ 101 __ 99 _ 103 _ 101 A777 (21) _____________________ 100 _ 100 _ 100 _ 100 Wxdavis5784 (11) ______________ 99 _ 100 _ 103 _ 101 Roger Ramjet (22) ______________ 99 _ 100 _ 101 _ 102 MNTransplant (19) _____________ 99 __ 99 _ 101 _ 101 WxWatcher007 (20) ____________ 99 __ 97 _ 100 _ 101 tplbge (19) _____________________ 98 _ 100 __ 99 _ 100 mattie g (4) _____________________98 _ 100 __ 98 _ 101 GATech (23) ____________________ 98 __ 98 __ 98 __ 99 nw baltimore wx (8) _____________98 __ 97 __ 98 __ 99 biodhokie (17) __________________ 97 _ 100 __ 99 _ 102 ___________________________________________________________________ 26 entries with mine not given an order of entry -- have said in tiebreaker rules section that as host I will concede on order of entry if it comes down to that. So you will see the highest order of entry number is 25. Changed the order for WxWatcher007 to 20th since he says he edited quite recently (but I saw his edit before A777 entered as the table was already under construction then). No worries as I bet the order of entry won't come into play, the errors will settle any ties if required. Hopefully somebody wins outright. Consensus values for the contest are now calculated (means rounded to nearest whole numbers). (late note: I added Weather53 to the table, even if his entry was a few hours late, I missed seeing it until today (June 26) for some reason and I don't think there was any really useful information available on June 14th that wasn't available to everyone else the day before ... so we have 26 entries now).

Bump for confirmed deadline -- no extensions now planned. In the original post I had listed the max to date, two locations have improved on those by one degree since I posted. Thanks for your entries. I will make up the table of forecasts tomorrow night (as 06z is only 11 pm where I live) and have it ready for posting at the deadline. If anyone has ideas about seasonal max at other U.S. locations, we have a forum-wide contest opened up in the "general weather" thread and the same deadline as this contest although a late penalty arrangement exists there (basically you lose the square of late days, e.g., 2.5 days late would cost 6.25 points). Please note in this contest, no late entries accepted, but feel free to edit to the deadline, I will check for edits but won't start creating the table of entries until around 04z Monday which is midnight Sunday in EDT (I think). _________________________________________________ Scoring: same as other years, the sum of your departures from final seasonal max numbers. However, I will announce in advance that in the case of a tie (for any position) the order will be determined as follows: (a) smallest maximum error (b) if necessary, second smallest error (defined as smallest of three errors left to separate after (a) eliminated) (c) if still tied, earliest entry (regardless of edit times if applicable since not visible to readers) ... ... ... most do not edit anyway so probably a "moot point." ______________________________________ An example of the tie-breaker, let's say two tie for five total departure points and get there with 2, 3, 0, 0 and 1, 3, 1, 0 ... the maximum error is the same (three) but once taken off the table, then the 1, 1, 0 will finish ahead of the 2, 0, 0. ______________________________________ There will be a secondary award for most direct hits and that will be separated the same way (since if necessary both or all will have similar numbers of zero errors, the separation will be achieved by looking at maximum errors). Last year if my memory is reliable the winners had total departures of 3, and there were a few entries with two direct hits.

The deadline for entries has now arrived. Late entries are accepted but with a late penalty of (days late)^2 (or days late squared), with the "days late" determined by hourly precision. Therefore if you read this within the first day of the late period, your penalty will be quite small (the contest is scored out of 100 as explained in a previous post). By day two you are looking at a rather significant late penalty increasing from 1 to 4 points and on day 3, from 4 to 9 points. This is a table of entries received. "Expert consensus" refers to a group of pre-season outlooks from noted hurricane research groups, all of which came up with forecasts close to this expert consensus. "NOAA median" refers to the average values of the ranges predicted by NOAA. The contest consensus is based on forecaster entries and does not include the expert consensus or NOAA median. The consensus is the mean of all forecasts submitted. The forecasts are listed from most to least named storms, and within ties, the numbers of hurricanes or majors will determine the order; if nothing separates the forecasts at all then order of entry is used. Table of forecasts __ 2021 hurricane seasonal contest FORECASTER _________________ named __ 'canes __ Major Macintosh _______________________25 __ 14 __ 10 Tezeta ___________________________23 __ 14 ___ 7 Roger Smith _____________________ 23 __ 13 ___ 7 Southmdwatcher ________________ 22 __ 11 ___ 6 IntenseWind002 _________________ 22 ___ 9 ___ 4 hudsonvalley21 __________________21 __ 11 ___ 6 Newman ________________________ 21 __ 10 ___ 5 J_Keith_Lee _____________________ 21 ___ 9 ___ 4 Brian5671 _______________________ 20 __ 12 ___ 2 RJay ____________________________ 20 __ 10 ___ 5 WxWatcher007 __________________ 20 ___ 9 ___ 4 BKViking ________________________ 20 ___ 9 ___ 4 ___ consensus __________________19.2 _ 9.8 __ 4.7 DonSutherland1 _________________ 19 __ 12 ___ 6 Ldub ____________________________ 19 __ 11 ___ 5 magpiemaniac __________________ 19 __ 10 ___ 4 NCforecaster89 _________________ 19 ___ 9 ___ 4 Tom ____________________________ 19 ___ 9 ___ 3 Looking to the skies _____________ 19 ___ 8 ___ 7 wxdude64 _______________________19 ___ 7 ___ 4 TexMexWx ______________________ 18 ___ 9 ___ 4 Cat Lady ________________________ 18 ___ 9 ___ 3 snowlover2 ______________________18 ___ 8 ___ 4 Iceresistance ____________________18 ___ 7 ___ 3 Rhino16 _________________________ 17 __ 10 ___ 4 cptcatz __________________________17 ___ 9 ___ 4 NorthHillsWx ____________________17 ___ 9 ___ 3 ____ "Expert consensus" _________ 17 ___ 8 ___ 4 TARCweather ___________________ 17 ___ 8 ___ 3 ____ NOAA median _____________16.5 ___ 8 ___ 4 Yoda ___________________________ 16 ___ 9 ___ 5 LoboLeader1 ____________________15 ___ 9 ___ 4 Prospero ________________________14 __ 11 ___ 7 _____________________________________________________________ Posting at 0300z 11th, three hours ahead of the deadline. Will check for any amended forecasts or new entries within the deadline and incorporate them as required. Our consensus is just slightly higher than the expert consensus and actually quite similar to many of the individual forecasts within that consensus which has members at 18 and 19 named storms. While almost everyone found a unique forecast, one forecast did overlap an earlier one, in that one case, the earlier forecast would be considered the winner if those numbers are the best forecast. Thirty forecasts received so far, plus the two additional entries. Good luck to all !

He does have a flame thrower.

101 _ 99 _ 100 _ 98 _ 110 _ 101 _ 106 _ 107 _ 119 _ 99 dca nyc bos ord bis atl iah den phx sea

Note to forecasters: There will be a separate thread this year for the "seasonal max" contest. Hoping we will get a few more entries that way.

In past years I have added a seasonal max challenge to the ongoing temperature forecast contest. This year just to shake things up a bit, I am going to open this separate contest in the hopes of attracting a larger field of entries. The contest asks you to predict the 2021 annual maximum temperature (F) at ten locations. The contest winner will be the person with the smallest total departure from these outcomes. Make your forecast in whole numbers please, any decimal entries will be converted to whole numbers. The ten locations are: DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ BIS _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA (up to you to research what has already happened at these locations, BIS hit 106 yesterday). Deadline is end of Sunday 13th (Mon 14th 06z) with late penalties as follows: number of days (by hourly time stamp) squared. 2.5 days late gets a late penalty of 6.25 points ... etc.

CONTEST: There's a seasonal contest open in this forum, deadline is 06z June 11th (end of Thursday June 10th in other words). Late entries are accepted with increasing time penalties. The contest rewards accurate hurricane and major hurricane forecast numbers at a higher rate than count numbers based on last year's boondoggle.

Found these seasonal forecasts for reference (only the most recent version noted here): CSU _____ 18 8 4 (June 3rd) NOAA ___ 13-20 6-10 3-5 (May 20th) _ median _ 16.5 / 8 / 4 UKMO ___ 15* 7 3 (May 20th _ added 1 since they state 14 7 3 for official season) NCSU ___ 15-18 7-9 2-3 (Apr 14) _ median 16.5 / 8 / 2.5 TWC ____ 19 8 4 (May 13) TSR _____ 18 9 4 (May 27) UA ______ 18 8 4 (Apr 13) avg of all _ 17 8 4 Will place that in the contest as "expert" since it comes pretty close to matching most of them anyway. However, will also enter "NOAA median" as a separate entry. Our consensus so far appears to be closer to 20 10 5 (and our consensus is usually a bit more bullish than the experts, which works out well in active years and badly in low years). Last year if you didn't enter this or read the thread, we were all obviously low on named storms (30) although some had very good hurricane and major forecasts. I had to score by a beta method when the official contest scoring saw even the best calls reduced to zero with that absurdly high named storm count. So, this year, the official contest scoring will follow that precedent just in case we go off on a bender again with every swirl of cloud getting a name. Scoring as follows: base score 100 _ less one quarter of (error of named storms) + (error squared of named storms) _ less one half of (error of hurricanes) + (error squared of hurricanes) _ less one half of (error of majors) + (error squared of majors) ... example follows ... Your forecast 19 10 5 Actual count 22 11 3 Your score = 100 - (0.25)* (3+9) -- (0.5)*(1+1) -- (0.5)*(2+4) = 100 - 3.0 -- 1.0 -- 3.0 = 93.0 (before it would have been 90.0) ... in a case more similar to last year ... Your forecast 19 10 5 Actual count 28 11 3 ... your score 100 - 0.25* (9+81) --1.0 --3.0 = 100 --22.5 --1.0 --3.0 = 73.5 (before it would have been 51.0). ________________________________________________ If this scoring system makes you consider any change in forecast, I won't be collecting forecasts for a table of entries until June 11th. The contest deadline will be June 11th 06z (end of Thursday June 10th). Late entries will be docked one point per day, squared. (1, 4, 9 etc). That means there is no point in entering beyond June 20th as your late penalty is then 100. (this late penalty will be worked out on an hourly basis from the 06z deadline).

Same format as past years, predict the highest temperatures this summer at the four major airports, DCA, IAD, BWI, RIC. Contest period is the full calendar year but should be decided by mid to end of September. Winners will be the forecasters with least total error (departure) from actual values. (see my post on June 12th for tie-breaker rules in force this year) My entry will be 101 _ 102 _ 103 _ 104 (post entries in the order shown in line one, and you don't need to type in airports, or just forecast free style and I'll figure it out for the table of entries). DEADLINE _ End of the weekend of 12th-13th, have given 06z Monday June 14th as a precise time but that's 0200h Monday. In one or two past years, the max has already happened by now -- rather doubt that this is the case in 2021. Good luck !!

Table of forecasts __ June 2021 FORECASTER ___________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA _ bias vs con RJay ____________________ +3.0 _ +3.0 _ +3.5 __ +2.0 _ +1.5 __ 0.0 ___ +2.0 _ +1.0 __ 0.0 ____ +0.63 wxallannj _______________ +2.9 _ +3.4 _ +3.5 __ +2.4 _ --0.5 _ --1.3 ___ +1.8 _ +0.7 _ --0.4 ____ +0.24 DonSutherland1 ________ +2.2 _ +2.6 _ +3.0 __ +1.5 _ +0.3 _ --0.5 _____ 0.0 _ +2.5 _ +1.6 ____ +0.32 Tom ____________________ +2.1 _ +1.9 _ +2.0 __ +1.6 _ +2.1 _ +0.5 ___ +1.1 _ +0.6 _ +0.5 ____ +0.23 BKViking ________________ +1.9 _ +2.5 _ +2.7 __ +2.0 _ +0.5 _ --0.3 ___ +1.0 _ +1.3 _ +1.7 ____ +0.33 hudsonvalley21 _________ +1.7 _ +2.0 _ +2.1 __ +0.9 _ +0.1 _ --0.8 ___ +0.4 _ +0.5 _ +1.0 ____ --0.33 ___ Consensus __________ +1.7 _ +1.9 _ +2.1 __ +1.6 _ +0.5 _ --0.3 ___ +0.8 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ____ wxdude64 ______________ +1.4 _ +1.6 _ +1.7 __ +1.1 _ +0.6 _ --0.4 ___ +0.8 _ +1.2 _ +0.6 ____ --0.10 so_whats_happening ____+1.1 _ +1.9 _ +2.3 __ +2.4 _ +0.4 __ 0.0 ___ +0.7 _ +1.0 _ +1.4 ____ +0.10 Roger Smith ____________ +1.1 _ +1.3 _ +1.5 __ +2.0 _ +1.2 _ +0.7 ___ +2.7 _ +1.8 _ +1.5 ____ +0.39 RodneyS ________________+1.0 _ +1.4 _ +1.8 __ +0.5 __ 0.0 _ --0.9 ___ +0.3 _ +0.9 _ +1.5 ____ --0.49 Scotty Lightning _________+1.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 __ +0.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 ___ +0.5 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 ____ --0.26 ___ Normal _______________0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ --1.14 __________________________________________________ Warmest and coolest forecasts color coded ... Normal is also minimum forecast for DCA, NYC, BOS, ORD, PHX. (note edit on June 25 due to error in placement of one line in the table, no changes to any numbers were needed)

Four Seasons contest updated standings FORECASTER __________ SCORE WINTER 2020-2021 ___ POINTS __ SCORE SPRING 2021 _ POINTS __ TOTAL DonSutherland1 ___________ 730 + 1163 = 1893 ______ 10 ___________1806 _____ 6 ______16 Tom ______________________ 668 + 1033 = 1701 _______ 4 ___________ 1841 ____10 ______14 ___ Consensus ____________ 689 + 1088 = 1777 _______ 6 ___________ 1774 _____4 ______10 hudsonvalley21 ___________ 716 + 1047 = 1763 _______ 6 ___________ 1760 _____ 3 _______9 BKViking __________________ 668 + 1094 = 1762 _______5 ___________ 1768 _____4 _______ 9 RodneyS __________________ 616 + 1229 = 1845 _______ 7 ___________ 1528 _____ 1 ______ 8 wxallannj _________________ 668 + 1006 = 1674 _______ 3 ___________ 1780 _____ 5 _______8 wxdude64 ________________ 500 + 1075 = 1575 _______ 1 ____________1835 _____7________8 Scotty Lightning __________ 586 + 1020 = 1606 ________2 ___________ 1684 _____ 1 _______ 3 so_whats_happening ______ dnp + 928 = 928 __ (2/3)__ 1 ___________ 1733 _____ 2 _______ 3 RJay ______________________ 686 + 864 = 1550 ________1 ____________1634 _____ 1 _______ 2 Roger Smith _______________580 + 959 = 1539 ________ 1 ___________ 1300 ______1 _______ 2 ___ Normal ________________ 524 + 950 = 1474 ________ 1 ___________1638 ______1 _______ 2 ___________________________________________________________ Winter scores are total of Dec 2020 and (Jan+Feb) 2021. Points _ 10 for high score, 7 for second, 6 for third, etc, and 1 point for all who enter at least 2/3. This looks like a wide open contest at the moment. (scores for consensus and Normal do not alter progressions of scores for forecasters). ______________________________________________________________ Points for consensus and Normal do not alter the progression of points for forecasters.

+1.1 _ +1.3 _ +1.5 __ +2.0 _ +1.2 _ +0.7 __ +2.7 _ +1.8 _ +1.5

<<<<<< ============ - - - - Annual Scoring for 2021 (Jan-May) - - - - ============ >>>>>>>> High scores for nine locations shown in red, high scores for regions in bold. FORECASTER _________________DCA_NYC_BOS__east_ ORD_ATL_IAH__cent_ c/e ___ DEN_PHX_SEA__west___TOTALS DonSutherland1 ______________ 366 _380 _288 _ 1034 __341 _358 _312 _1011 __2045 __216 _378 _330 __924 ____ 2969 wxdude64 ____________________375 _395 _357 _ 1127 __241 _278 _263 __782 __1909 __283 _383 _335__1001____ 2910 Tom __________________________372 _413 _369 _1154 __200 _289 _298 __787 __1941 __258 _371 _304 __933 ____ 2874 BKViking _____________________ 348 _398 _332 _ 1078 __242 _336 _264 __842 __1920 __226 _354 _362 __942 ____ 2862 ___ Consensus _______________ 376 _400 _328 _ 1104 __238 _312 _282 __832 __ 1936 __216 _364 _346 __926 ____ 2862 hudsonvalley21 _______________ 354 _360 _352 _ 1066 __243 _348 _264 __855 __1921 __170 _348 _368 __886 ____ 2807 wxallannj ______________________318 _372 _282 __972 __190 _270 _338 __798 __1770 __280 _350 _386 _1016 ____ 2786 RodneyS ______________________ 306 _364 _278 __948 __235 _318 _266 __819 __1767 __260 _376 _354 __990 ____ 2757 Scotty Lightning _______________ 330 _358 _274 __962 __156 _326 _292 __774 __1736 __254 _370 _344 __968 ____ 2704 so_whats_happening __________ 369 _355 _250 __974 __274 _364 _197 __835 __1809 __170 _371 _311 __852 ____ 2661 ___ Normal ____________________ 306 _324 _244 __874 __128 _ 290 _300 __618 __1592 __314 _350 _332 __996 ____ 2588 RJay __________________________ 326 _340 _334 _1000 __260 _286 _228 __774 __1774 __150 _290 _284 __724 ____ 2498 Roger Smith ___________________ 272 _242 _138 __652 __243 _244 _300 __787 __ 1439 __176 _ 312 _332 __820 ____ 2259 Best scores for the locations and regions FORECASTER _______________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ east __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ cent __ c/e ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA __ west ___ Totals DonSutherland1 ______________ 2 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 2 ______ 2 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 3 ____ 3 _____ 0 ____ 2 ____ 1 _____ 0 _____ 1 __ Jan wxdude64 ____________________ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 1 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 2 _____ 1 __ Mar (t) Tom __________________________ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 1 _____ 1 __ May BKViking _____________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 0 _____ 1 __ Apr ___ Consensus _______________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ hudsonvalley21 _______________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 2 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ wxallannj _____________________ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 _____ 0 __ RodneyS _____________________ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 1 _____ 1 __ Feb Scotty Lightning ______________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ so_whats_happening _________ 2 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 2 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 1 __ Mar (t) ___ Normal ___________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 1 _____ 0 __ May RJay _________________________ 0 ____ 1 ____ 3 _____ 1 ______ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ Roger Smith __________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- EXTREME FORECAST STANDINGS High score must go to either the extreme warm or cold forecast, or second most extreme, for a station to qualify. So far this year, 30 locations out of 45 have qualified, 4 in Jan, 5 in Feb, 7 in March, 6 in April and 8 in May. Of those, 16 were awarded to warmest forecasts, 14 to coldest. A loss in the standings represents a case where second most extreme forecast had the high score and the win for that month. Normal can only win along with a forecaster. There have been two shared wins (one by three) accounting for the 33 total wins (excl Normal). FORECASTER _________ Jan __ Feb __ Mar _ Apr _ May ___ TOTAL to date DonSutherland1 _______ 2-0 __ 1-0 __ 2-0 __ 0-1 __ 2-0 ___ 7-1 Roger Smith ___________ 2-1 __ 2-0 __ ---- __ 1-0 __ 1-0 ___ 6-1 RJay ___________________ ---- __ ---- __ 2-0 __ 2-0 __ 1-0 ___ 5-0 wxallannj ______________ ---- __ ---- __ ----- __ 3-0 __ 2-0 ___ 5-0 wxdude64 _____________ ---- __ 1-0 __ 2-0 __ ----- __ ----- ___ 3-0 so_whats_happening ___---- __ 1-0 __ 2-0 __ ----- __ ----- ___ 3-0 Normal _________________---- __ ---- __ 2-0 __ ----- __ 1-0 ___ 3-0 RodneyS ______________ ----- __ ----- __ ----- __ ----- __ 2-1 ___ 2-1 Tom __________________ ----- __ ----- __ ----- __ ----- __ 1-0 ___ 1-0 BKViking ______________ ----- __ ----- __ ----- __ ----- __ 1-0 ___ 1-0 __________________________________________

Final scoring for May 2021 The NWS has changed reporting to the 1991-2020 normals but as the contest specified 1981-2010 normals for this contest month, the anomalies reported will be adjusted (all but PHX will be adjusted up since 1981-2010 values are cooler than 1991-2020, PHX actually went down 0.1 from May 1981-2010 to May 1991-2020, not a very significant change). Small late penalties are shown as * per point lost. Total in brackets is before accumulated late penalties. A verification was made to ensure that CF6 reports were using 1991-2020 normals. DEN worked out to a value 0.2 below the 1991-2020 normal and 0.3 above the 1981-2010 normal. All eight other locations worked out to values identical to the 1991-2020 normal. The DEN anomaly may be either (a) a manual error or (b) a rounding issue within max and min. In any case it makes no difference to the outcome, I decided to take their reported actual value and the differential from 1981-2010 which worked out to a contest anomaly of --1.0 (would have been -0.8 had the same rounding issues been applied). As our lowest forecast was -0.6, the differential in scoring would have been the same. FORECASTER _____ _____ _____ DCA_NYC_BOS_east_ORD_ATL_IAH__cent_c/e_ DEN_PHX_SEA__west___TOTAL Contest anomalies (rel 1981-2010) __+0.1_+0.6_+3.5 __ __ _+1.1_--0.4_--0.6 __ __ __ __ --1.0 _+1.0 _+0.9 ___ Normal ___________________98 _ 88 _ 30 __ 216 __ 78 _ 92 _ 88 __258 _ 474 __ 80 _ 80 _ 82 ___ 242 ____ 716 Tom _________________________ 66 _ 80 _ 54 __ 200 __ 82 _ 68 _ 84 __234 _ 434 __ 90 _ 78 _ 98 __ 266 ____ 700 wxallannj _____________________ 74 _ 88 _ 50 __ 212 __ 68 _ 60 _ 98 __226 _ 438 __ 92 _ 76 _ 90 ___ 258 ____ 696 RodneyS ______________________74 _100_ 38 __ 212 __ 76 _ 76 _ 74 __226 _ 438 __ 84 _ 84 _ 84 ___ 252 ____ 690 DonSutherland1 ______________ 82 _ 92 _ 46 __ 220 __ 88 _ 66 _ 68 __222 _ 442 __ 44 _100_ 80 ___ 224 ____ 666 wxdude64 ____________________68 _ 82 _ 54 __ 204 __ 90 _ 66 _ 66 __222 _ 426 __ 62 _ 88 _ 74 ___ 224 ____ 650 Scotty Lightning ______________ 72 _ 82 _ 50 __ 204 __ 98_ 52 _ 48 __198 _ 402 __ 70 _ 90 _ 82 ___ 242 ____ 644 Roger Smith __________________ 74 _ 88 _ 54 __ 216 __ 92 _ 58 _ 64 __214 _ 430 __ 42 _ 74 _ 98___ 214 ____ 644 ___ Consensus ________________72 _ 88 _ 52 __ 212 __ 92 _ 62 _ 64 __218 _ 430 __ 44 _ 78 _ 90 ___ 212 ____ 642 BKViking _____________________ 74 _ 88 _ 52 __ 214 __ 92 _ 62 _ 44 __198 _ 412 __ 28 _ 78 _ 98 ___ 204 ____ 616 hudsonvalley21 _______________60 _ 72 _ 66 __ 198 __ 84 _ 70 _ 36 __190 _ 388 __ 26 _ 80 _ 94 ___ 200 ____ 588 so_whats_happening _ (-3%) __ 64** 87***43*__194 __95***49*50**_194 _ 388 __ 41* 72**87***__ 200 ___ 588 (606) RJay _________________________ 52 _ 62 _ 80 __ 194 __ 72 _ 62 _ 48 __182 _ 376 __ 10 _ 70 _ 82 __ 162 ____ 538 ________________________________________________ Extreme Forecast Report _ DCA _ DonSutherland1 wins with lowest forecast. (Normal also scores a win). _ NYC _ RodneyS wins with lowest forecast. _BOS _ RJay wins with highest forecast. _ORD _ For 1981-2010 anomalies highest scores were near our consensus (for 1991-2020 coldest forecast would win). _ATL _ RodneyS wins with lowest forecast. _IAH _ wxallannj wins with lowest forecast. _DEN _ wxallannj wins with lowest forecast. _PHX _ DonSutherland1 (second lowest forecast) has a win, RodneyS a loss (lowest forecast). _SEA _ Tom, BKViking and Roger Smith would share a win at +0.8 or higher. ============================================== How scores would vary with 1991-2020 normals used to score instead DCA, NYC, ATL, IAH, DEN would all be lower scores (anomalies further below all forecasts). BOS would all be higher scores (not as much warmer than all forecasts). -- nobody at any disadvantage in these cases. The net gain is 64 points vs using 1991-2020 (for these five). ORD had a higher differential in normal values than other locations. And it fell right into the middle of the forecasts. Those four with forecasts above +1.1 have a higher score by 30. Those between --0.4 and +1.1 have more similar scores which changed up or down by smaller amounts. The lowest forecast from wxallannj (--0.5) lost thirty points relative to score for 1991-2020 (98). RodneyS ended up 18 points lower. Most of the others gained slightly (but not the 30 points gained by warmer forecasts). So only two scores were really impacted significantly with a few smaller adjustments all of them a disadvantage to some extent. PHX only changed by 0.1 and in the downward direction unlike almost other changes in the normals. That means that the scores are all 2 points higher than they would be for 1991-2020, except for DonS and RodneyS who would score two higher with 1991-2020. SEA would come out in almost the opposite order, the new normal is +1.5 higher and the forecasts were generally between the anomalies that were generated by the two different values. The largest differentials are around 30 points. Wxallannj who up until this forecast was running at a disadvantage did relatively well by the change so that overall we reach a situation where using either normal would make only small and limited differences overall for scoring. ============================================== The annual scoring report will be along later today I hope, with an update on the "four seasons" scoring.

Just to confirm, Ana and any other named storms that occur before you post are in the final result for the contest which is simply this year's count (which people were nice enough not to comment, but I had it backwards in post one, it's named storms, canes, majors, but as everyone knows that probably didn't notice my mangling of the order). My guess is going to be 23/13/7 and there is no reasoning because I simply know this to be a fact (until proven otherwise).

I have posted a full report on the 1991-2020 normals in the June thread, and they apparently are already replacing the 1981-2010 in NWS reporting, I believe ... (from the June thread ...) By the looks of the SEA current reporting, they have already switched to 1991-2020, the anomaly for 56.3 is reported as -0.8 which says that the "normal" for 1-26 is 57.1, comparing that to 1981-2010 and 1991-2020 it would appear that the report is relative to 1991-2020. Will discuss this with you all by private message and see what you think should happen for May, but for June we will take the reports using 1991-2020 so it's up to you to assess the new normals at the nine locations, hope you find the above tables useful in that regard. Some locations have warmed more than others (not only climate change at work but also urbanization issues).

By the looks of the SEA current reporting, they have already switched to 1991-2020, the anomaly for 56.3 is reported as -0.8 which says that the "normal" for 1-26 is 57.1, comparing that to 1981-2010 and 1991-2020 it would appear that the report is relative to 1991-2020. Will discuss this with you all by private message and see what you think should happen for May, but for June we will take the reports using 1991-2020 so it's up to you to assess the new normals at the nine locations, hope you find the above tables useful in that regard. Some locations have warmed more than others (not only climate change at work but also urbanization issues).

Here are May and June normals for both intervals, the May data will be used to determine what reporting is in place for the May contest and the scoring will be based on an adjustment to 1981-2010 if necessary since all contest entrants agreed that they were providing forecasts relative to 1981-2010. I have added all the monthly normals for both intervals. Period ____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 1981-2010 _May ___66.0 _62.3 _57.9 __ 59.1 _ 70.1 _ 76.9 ___ 57.1 _ 82.1 _ 56.0 1991-2020 _May ___67.2 _63.2 _58.4 __ 60.6 _ 71.2 _ 77.4 ___ 57.4 _ 82.0 _ 57.5 1981-2010 _Jun ___ 75.2 _71.8 _67.7 __ 68.9 _ 77.3 _ 82.4 ___ 67.4 _ 90.8 _ 60.9 1991-2020 _Jun ___ 76.3_ 72.0 _68.0 __ 70.6 _ 77.9 _ 83.0 ___ 68.2 _ 91.4 _ 62.0 All months for reference: (DCA 1981-2010 _ 36.0 39.0 46.8 56.8 66.0 75.2 79.8 78.1 71.0 59.5 49.6 39.7) (DCA 1991-2020 _ 37.5 40.0 47.6 58.2 67.2 76.3 81.0 79.4 72.4 60.8 49.9 41.7) (DCA diff _________ 1.5 _ 1.0 _0.8 _1.4 _1.2 _1.1 _1.2 _ 1.3 _ 1.4 _1.3 _ 0.3 _ 2.0) ================================================ (NYC 1981-2010 _ 33.1 35.7 42.4 52.6 62.3 71.8 77.1 75.9 68.9 57.6 47.9 37.9) (NYC 1991-2020 _ 33.7 35.9 42.8 53.7 63.2 72.0 77.5 76.1 69.2 57.9 48.0 39.1) (NYC diff _________ 0.6 _ 0.2 _ 0.4 _1.1 _0.9 _0.2 _0.4 _ 0.2 _ 0.3 _0.3 _0.1 _1.2) ================================================ (BOS 1981-2010 _ 29.0 31.7 38.3 48.1 57.9 67.7 73.4 72.1 64.9 54.0 44.7 34.7) (BOS 1991-2020 _ 29.9 31.8 38.3 48.6 58.4 68.0 74.1 72.7 65.6 54.8 44.7 35.7) (BOS diff __________0.9 _ 0.1 _0.0 _0.5 _0.5 _ 0.3 _ 0.7 _0.6 _ 0.7 _0.8 _0.0 _ 1.0) ================================================= (ORD 1981-2010 _23.8 27.7 37.9 48.9 59.1 68.9 74.0 72.4 64.6 52.5 40.3 27.7) (ORD 1991-2020 _25.2 28.8 39.0 49.7 60.6 70.6 75.4 73.8 66.3 54.0 41.3 30.5) (ORD diff _________ 1.4 _1.1 _1.1 _0.8 _1.5 _1.7 _1.4 _1.4 _1.7 _1.5 _ 1.0 _ 2.8) ================================================= (ATL 1981-2010 _ 43.3 47.2 54.3 62.0 70.1 77.3 80.2 79.4 73.5 63.3 54.0 45.3) (ATL 1991-2020 _ 44.8 48.5 55.6 63.2 71.2 77.9 80.9 80.2 74.9 64.7 54.2 47.3) (ATL diff _________ 1.5 _1.3 _1.3 _ 1.2 _ 1.1 _0.6 _ 0.7 _ 0.8 _ 1.4 _1.4 _0.2 _2.0) ================================================= (IAH 1981-2010 _ 53.1 56.4 62.7 69.5 76.9 82.4 84.4 84.6 79.8 71.5 62.3 54.4) (IAH 1991-2020 _ 53.8 57.7 63.8 70.0 77.4 83.0 85.1 85.2 80.5 71.8 62.0 55.4) (IAH diff _________ 0.7 _ 1.3 _1.1 _ 0.5 _0.5 _ 0.6 _0.7 _ 0.6 _0.7 _0.3 _--0.3 _1.0) ================================================= (DEN 1981-2010 _30.7 32.5 40.4 47.4 57.1 67.4 74.2 72.5 63.4 50.9 38.3 30.0) (DEN 1991-2020 _31.7 32.7 41.6 47.8 57.4 68.2 75.1 72.9 64.8 51.1 39.4 31.2) (DEN diff _________ 1.0 _0.2 _ 1.2 _0.4 _0.3 _0.8 _ 1.3 _ 0.4 _1.4 _0.2 _1.1 _ 1.2) ================================================== (PHX 1981-2010 _56.4 59.7 65.2 72.7 82.1 90.8 94.8 93.6 88.4 76.7 64.1 55.4) (PHX 1991-2020 _56.8 59.9 66.3 73.2 82.0 91.4 95.5 94.4 89.2 77.4 65.1 55.8) (PHX diff _________0.4 _ 0.2 _1.1 _ 0.5 _--0.1 _0.6 _0.7 _0.8 _0.8 _0.7 _1.0 _ 0.4) ================================================== (SEA 1981-2010) _ 42.0 43.4 46.5 50.3 56.0 60.9 65.7 66.1 61.3 52.8 45.4 40.6) (SEA 1991-2020 _ 42.8 44.0 47.1 51.3 57.5 62.0 67.1 67.4 62.6 53.8 46.5 42.0) (SEA diff __________0.8 _ 0.6 _0.6 _1.0 _ 1.5 _1.1 _1.4 _1.3 _1.3 _ 1.0 _ 1.1 _ 1.4)

Update: I am reading press releases stating that the 1991-2020 normals will be in use perhaps even this month (May) so I assume they will be used for the June CF6 products that are used to score the forecasts. Hold off on posting until I can get a list of 1981-2010 and 1991-2020 normal values for the nine locations, to see if some stations have significant differences.

Predict the temperature anomalies for the usual nine locations ... check back closer to the deadline for any updates as I try to find out if the NWS plans to change to 1991-2020 normals for June. For now, will assume entries are relative to 1981-2010. Will score them as such unless otherwise tagged, if I can establish the differentials. Also due to the timing of Memorial Day weekend, probably will not start charging late penalties until June 2nd, if you don't see a table of forecasts you can edit on June 1st without penalty. DCA __ NYC __ BOS ___ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

Anomalies and tracking future trends from the GFS ... _____________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA _11th _____ (anom 10d) _____ --1.7 _ --2.8 _ --0.2 __ --2.5 _--0.9 _+2.4 __ --0.3 _+4.4 _--0.6 _23rd _____ (anom 22d) _____ --1.1 _ +0.6 _ +3.8 __ +0.5 _--2.4 _--0.9 __ --1.0 _+2.5 _--0.4 _30th _____ (anom 30d) est __--1.0 __ 0.0 _ +3.3 __ --0.3 _--1.4 _--1.0 __ --1.0 _+1.2 _--0.9 _30th _____(anom 30d 81-10)_+0.2 _+0.9 _ +3.8 __ +1.2 _--0.3 _--0.4 __ --0.5 _+1.1 _+0.6 _31st-1st __ final anom ______ --1.1 _--0.3 _+3.0 __ --0.4 _--1.5 _--1.2 __ --1.3 _+1.1 _--0.6 verified all the above are rel to 1991-2020 . _31st-1st __ contest (1981-2010) anom ______________________________+0.1 _+0.6 _+3.5 __ +1.1 _--0.4 _--0.6 __ --1.0 _+1.0 _+0.9 _11th _____ (p anom 20d) ___ --2.0 _ --2.5 _ --1.5 __ --2.0 _ --1.5 __0.0 __ +0.5 _+4.0 _+1.0 _11th _____ (p anom 31d) ___ --1.5 _ --2.0 _ --1.0 __ --1.5 _ --1.0 _--0.5 __ +1.0 _+3.0 _+1.5 _23rd _____ (p anom 31d) ___ +1.0 _ +3.0 _ +4.0 __ +3.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ +1.0 _+3.0 _+0.5 _30th _____ (p anom 31d) ___ +0.2 _ +0.5 _ +3.3 __ +1.0 __ 0.0 _ --0.2 __ --0.5 _+1.0 _+0.8 _______________________________ 11th _ The month has started out rather cold across the northern half of the U.S. (lower 48) and warmer than average closer to the southern border and the Gulf of Mexico. The projections above are based on the following: (days 1-10) continued rather cold in the east but this regime spreading further south to include ATL and IAH in below normal northeast wind patterns, west warming esp valid SEA and DEN, then days 11 to 16 and beyond for a month end projection just took normal values in east expecting a warming trend beyond the model run, and a +2.0 anomaly for western locations days 11-20. 23rd _ Back to warmer weather after mid-month, some of the anomaly projections were not quite as far off as they look because of the difference in update time (to 22nd) and projection (to 20th), but a warmer look now to end of month in most cases, will result in warmer end of month projections. 30th _ The most recent projections have been thrown into disarray by the huge negative anomalies on the backside of the east coast low, and the introduction of 1991-2020 normals which are higher (as discussed below) therefore the reported anomalies are lower by that much also. Will be working out what the anomalies should be for the contest since you all made forecasts based on 1981-2010 normals for May. As I've been saying we will go with the reported anomalies relative to 1991-2020 from June onward. For now, the numbers I am using to start the provisional scoring process are my estimates of what the contest anomalies will be, the 1991-2020 anomalies will be lower by various amounts. See the June thread for more details. (11th, 23rd) _ Checked for snow at contest sites, just a trace at DEN on 10th. Probably not quite time to call the contest yet (latest updates are in the April contest thread).

It's no longer Greek to me, the simplified format makes scoring easy, especially if everyone scores zero. Hopefully we won't have a repeat of the astronomical distorted season last year, last time I checked, 59/8/-2. So this year once again just predict the count at the end of the year, Majors, all canes, all named storms (e.g. 18/10/5). We'll say June 10 for a deadline, may extend it if the season is slow to get going and/or entries have fallen short of a good number. Edit your entries without notice before June 10, won't be making any notes although I will read them.

Table of forecasts for May, 2021 FORECASTER _____ _____ _____ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA __ bias (rel to con) RJay _________________________ +2.5 _ +2.5 _ +2.5 __ +2.5 _ +1.5 _ +2.0 __ +3.5 _ +2.5 __ 0.0 ___ +0.89 hudsonvalley21 ______________ +2.1 _ +2.0 _ +1.8 __ +1.9 _ +1.1 _ +2.6 __ +2.7 _ +2.0 _ +0.6 ___ +0.68 Tom _________________________ +1.8 _ +1.6 _ +1.2 __ +0.2 _ +1.2 _ +0.2 __ --0.5 _ +2.1 _ +0.8 ___ --0.41 so_whats_happening _ (-3%) __ +1.8 _ +1.1 _ +0.7 __ +1.2 _ +2.1 _ +1.8 __ +1.9 _ +2.3 _ +0.4 ___ +0.20 wxdude64 ____________________ +1.7 _ +1.5 _ +1.2 __ +0.6 _ +1.3 _ +1.1 __ +0.9 _ +1.6 _ --0.4 ___ --0.22 Scotty Lightning _______________+1.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.0 __ +1.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.0 __ +0.5 _ +1.5 __ 0.0 ___ --0.06 ___ Consensus ________________ +1.5 _ +1.2 _ +1.1 __ +0.7 _ +1.5 _ +1.2 __ +1.8 _ +2.1 _ +0.4 Roger Smith __________________ +1.4 _ +1.2 _ +1.2 __ +1.5 _ +1.7 _ +1.2 __ +1.9 _ +2.3 _ +0.8 ___ +0.19 BKViking _____________________ +1.4 _ +1.2 _ +1.1 __ +0.7 _ +1.5 _ +2.2 __ +2.6 _ +2.1 _ +0.8 ___ +0.26 wxallannj _____________________ +1.4 _ +1.2 _ +1.0 __ --0.5 _ +1.6 _ --0.5 __ --0.6 _ +2.2 _ +0.4 ___ --0.59 RodneyS ______________________ +1.4 _ +0.6 _ +0.4 __--0.1 _ +0.8 _ +0.7 __ --0.2 _ +0.2 _ +0.1 ___ --0.84 DonSutherland1 _______________ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.8 __ +0.5 _ +1.3 _ +1.0 __ +1.8 _ +1.0 _ --0.1 ___ --0.36 ___ Normal _____________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ --1.28 _________________________________________________________________ Color codes for warmest and coldest forecasts, Normal is colder than all forecasts for DCA, NYC, BOS, ATL, PHX. Bias is the average departure of your forecast from consensus. The bias of normal tells us that our average forecast is +1.28.