Roger Smith

Dr Maybe said maybe, some of these GFS ensemble members spin up huge amounts of snow out of a very uninspiring looking pattern, what's with number five, thunder-snow or whatever gets the amount up so quickly ... not realistic looking at all ... I hope for the best but would go with 2-4" for now, slightly heavier to south, and all eyes on days 10-11 (full moon is 21st so not surprising to me that a larger event shows up then). I don't see much of a 1993 in it, more like 1899 perhaps.

That was by no means the first time.

The three best features (to balance out all the obvious risks that argue for low outcomes) -- (a) very warm offshore SST values near 24 C east of southern Delmarva -- should energize the low on Sunday and provide higher moisture contents in frontal bands (b) linking up of main arctic high in SK to very cold western slug now close to n AB s NWT border (-42 C) -- will produce a conveyor belt effect for double-centered low (c) energy peak well positioned and timed to impact storm development 12z 13th ... so blending that into what might otherwise be an anemic system, should cancel out some of the negatives and result in a moderate outcome, hence the 4-7" call. But yes, I would divide that by three if a solution like the GEM verified. OTOH would double the 4-7 if this gets some muscles and lifts like the five outlier solutions mentioned.

Shouldn't that be 2.54?

4 to 7 inches for most, 7 to 10 locally central VA to s/c MD ... needs to lift off the runway a bit based on current consensus, to improve to 7 to 12 inch event for most ... nice frontal energy visible west of s CA on satellite, hoping this invigorates the situation over n Mexico then Texas by Friday morning. GEM looks too suppressed at this point, GFS at least brings low center inland over southeast and closer to se VA. ... optimistic that later guidance will improve, this is a very cold arctic high forming over nw Canada trailing the main center in SK and models may be underplaying low thickness field likely to extend through western portions of the ridge to north of storm. This would translate into more hangback energy and snowfall.

Snowfall contest 2018-2019 ... updates through Jan 31st ... forecasts marked in red have been passed by actual snowfall. FORECASTER ___________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV Snowfall to date ________ 12.9 __ 7.5 __ 2.3 ___32.3 __21.4 __91.0___14.4 __ 0.0 __69.3 RJay __________________33.0 _54.0 _ 70.0 __ 30.0 _ 38.0 _100.0___ 65.0 __ 6.0 _100.0 DonSutherland.1 ________ 32.5 _ 50.0 _ 57.5 __ 48.5 _ 53.5 _110.0___ 52.0 __ 3.5 _ 93.0 Tom __________________ 26.3 _ 56.4_ 65.6 __ 29.6 _ 41.6 _ 95.2 ___ 62.3 __ 1.9 _ 89.6 wxallannj ______________ 25.0 _ 47.0 _ 52.0 __ 49.0 _ 51.0 _ 83.0 ___ 57.0 _ 13.0_ 77.0 Scotty Lightning _________25.0 _ 42.0 _ 75.0__ 70.0_ 80.0_120.0___75.0 _ 10.0 _ 85.0 BKViking _______________24.0 _ 55.0 _ 71.0 __ 35.0 _ 39.0 _ 78.0 ___ 60.0 _ 18.0 _ 78.0 ___ Consensus _________ 24.0 _ 44.5 _ 60.9 __ 37.5 _ 44.7 _ 92.6 ___ 58.5 __ 6.4 _ 88.8 ___ Consensus dep _____ +11.1_+37.0_+58.6__+5.2_+23.3_+1.6 ___+44.1 _+6.4_ +19.5 dmillz25 _______________ 24.0 _ 53.0 _ 67.0 __ 40.0 _ 37.7 _ 85.0 ___ 57.0 __ 5.0 _ 90.0 wxdude64 _____________ 22.9 _ 40.6 _ 59.7 __ 38.9 _ 45.9 _ 98.4 ___ 67.6 __ 6.7 _ 90.3 hudsonvalley21 _________ 22.0 _ 40.0 _ 62.0 __ 36.0 _ 48.2 _101.5___ 51.0 __ 5.7 _ 88.0 Roger Smith ____________18.0 _ 28.0 _ 45.0 __ 30.5 _ 35.5 _ 90.0 ___ 60.5 _ 10.0 _ 78.0 Stebo _________________ 13.2 _ 34.3 _ 53.5 __ 33.5 _ 47.0 _ 87.0 ___ 37.0 _ 10.7 _ 97.0 RodneyS _______________12.5 _ 25.0 _ 37.5 __ 41.0 _ 43.5 _ 89.0 ___ 52.5 __ 4.5 _ 73.0 _____________________________________________________________________ High forecasts in bold, low forecasts in italic. Consensus is median, average of 6th and 7th ranked forecasts. Normal will be added later from NWS daily climate data snowfalls late in season. ... watch for updates to season totals and this post will migrate to new months as we move along .

Do you mean SSTs day after departure? I don't see any forecasts of them but would they not likely fall gradually with the wind more northerly? I am using the CMC map as the NOAA maps are disabled due to the government shutdown. The reading east of ACY is unusually high, trending to more normal near HAT and colder than average well out into the Gulf stream off NC-SC. In other words, best cyclogenesis potential is east of the Delmarva.

I see potential for this to deepen rapidly near or just east of ORF. The offshore SST values have a +5 anomaly (recent reports of 24 C) as far north as 38 N. Energy rotating around a system not programmed into models will peak around 13th 12z and I think this will happen near ORF. Models have probably diagnosed 50% of this energy as it has roughly a six-day life cycle. Looking at Euro, despite good potential on that model, surface pressures are currently 5 mb higher in central Yukon and this suggests to me that slug of cold air at west end of linked ridge will be very suppressive, meaning that hangback will be squeezed into banding structure dragged along behind bombing offshore low. GFS seems on a good track, GEM has lost the plot with that southward shift of the primary which I think does not fit the uppers very well; the earlier GEM is therefore preferable. This could all add up to 10-15" snowfall event for your region. Mild air flowing off Atlantic north of primary will probably tighten the frontal bands and reposition the heaviest QPF closer to DCA-BWI than now shown on consensus guidance. Arctic front likely to be just south of Potomac estuary to Ocean City MD. Admittedly, system has a long way to go to develop from modest origins, it is almost detached from Pacific low already (cloud streaks west of Baja) and various things could go wrong, but if the models are on the right track, then I only see upside potential as that energy peak rotates into prime position on Sunday early morning. Northern extent of snow for other forums looking in, I would say roughly ABE-ALB-BGR but with some patchy 1-3" amounts further north from phasing subarctic vorticity.

-42 C at Mayo, Yukon where this arctic high is building up (1037 mbs). I like the looks of this set-up, might be worth comparing to Feb 1983 (El Nino winter, arctic high on similar track) as to potential storm dynamics. Nice energy peak at 12z 13th is indicated. Hoping for the best, want to see 00z model runs before speculating about amounts.

wake up

Maybe 1978 is their analogue then. The lunar dates in 1978 were only 3 days later than in 2019. That means an analogue to the east coast blizzard would occur around Feb 3-4. The Great Lakes superstorm timing would be Jan 22-23. If that was the analogue in play. (for me it's not in play for other reasons) ... When did DC region have a snowstorm midway from new moon to full moon in January? That might provide a clue as to the analogue year (new moon was 6th, full moon is 21st using z time, both back up to near end of previous day using EST to 5th and 20th). I know it wouldn't be 1996 as that storm was just a day or two after full moon.

Looks to me that the "warm core of winter" concept has come and almost gone now, both start and finish a bit ahead of my predicted schedule (I had derived Jan 5-15 for the warm core from my analogues), mid-December to the 10th of January would have been a perfect fit. From Dec 13th to Jan 8th (27 days) the mean temperature at DCA has been nearly 8 deg above normal. There will be a 31-day interval from perhaps 11th to 10th that runs 7 deg above, quite a large "monthly" anomaly but the calendar months will both be considerably smaller (December was +3.2). The warmest part of that was probably back around the Dec 21-22 event that was supposed to have been an east coast winter storm (turned out further inland and too mild). As I concluded in a discussion with some other forecasters elsewhere on this forum, the "torch" was a bit subdued being more of Pacific than Gulf origins, although looking at DCA actual data, it has been a very mild 25 day period that, had it overlapped a month on the calendar, might be causing more chatter in weather circles. Not every warm or cold spell gets equally recalled because of what I call the tyranny of the calendar (for a good example, see late February into early March of 1950, as cold as Jan 1950 was mild, but spread out in parts of two different months). But I am reasonably happy with the pattern compared to the forecast, the El Nino has been its usual self in some ways but is clearly meeting with a lot of resistance from the early invigoration of the arctic this past few months, and Quebec has been the favored ground for arctic highs to reside longest. We should be moving into a much better pattern now for winter synoptics and so I would be looking at dates around Jan 19-21, Feb 3-5 and Feb 14-19 (by then likely two peaks) as best opportunities, although I'm hoping this Jan 12-13 event works out well for the MA crew. I still expect at least near-normal snowfalls in many locations despite the very sparse amounts to date. And with a warm March in the forecast, it implies that I am predicting a snowy late January and February. .

First report on anomalies and forecasts ... ______________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA _8th ___ (7d) __________+10.2_ +7.1_ +7.6 _+12.0_+12.5 _+1.8 __+2.7 _--6.2 _+2.7 _8th ___ (p14d) _________+4.5_ +2.5_ +2.8 _ +6.0 _ +5.8 _+2.0 __ +5.0 _--1.6 _+2.5 _8th ___ (p24d) _________+1.5_ +0.5_ +0.5 _ +2.0 _ +2.0 _+2.0 __ +1.5 _--2.0 _+1.5

Feb 3rd 2019.

It would seem that we have the full turnout now, so here's the table of forecasts for January ... no late penalties which is a nice thing ... Table of forecasts for January, 2019 FORECASTER _____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA RodneyS _________________+3.2 _+3.5 _+2.8 __ +4.9 _+3.4 _+2.2 ___ +1.9 _--1.5 _+0.4 wxallannj ________________ +2.2 _+1.8 _+1.3 __ +2.2 _+2.4 _+0.6 ___+1.4 _+0.3 _+1.3 RJay ____________________ +2.0 _+2.0 _+2.0 __ +1.5 _+1.5 _+1.0 ___+1.0 _--0.5 _--0.5 Scotty Lightning ___________ +1.5 _+1.0 _+0.5 __ +0.5 _+1.5 _+1.5 ____0.0 _+0.5 __0.0 wxdude64 ________________ +1.4 _+1.1 _+0.8 __ --0.2 _--0.4 _--0.2 ___+1.2 _+0.4 _--0.4 Roger Smith ______________ +1.2 _+1.3 _+1.5 __ +2.0 _--0.3 _--0.5 ___ +1.5 _+0.5 _+1.8 ___ Consensus ____________ +1.2 _+1.1 _+0.8 __ +1.5 _+0.4 _--0.1 ___ +1.1 _+0.3 _+0.4 Stebo ____________________+1.2 _+1.3 _+1.5 __ +1.7 _--0.5 _--1.2 ___ +0.7 _--1.3 _--1.5 hudsonvalley21 ____________+0.9 _+0.5 _+0.3 __ +1.2 _+0.4 _--0.1 ___ +1.4 _--0.3 _+1.0 BKViking _________________ +0.8 _+0.6 _+0.6 __ +1.0 _--0.2 _--1.0 ___ +1.1 _--1.0 _--0.3 DonSutherland.1 ___________+0.8 _--0.4 _--0.6 __ +2.5 _+1.4 _--0.3 ___ +2.0 _+0.5 _+4.1 ___ Normal ________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 Tom _____________________--1.5 _--1.1 _--1.2 __ --2.5 _--3.5 _+0.5 ___ +0.1 _+0.3 _+1.1 _______________________________________________________________________ warmest and coldest forecasts are color coded. Normal also joint coldest for DEN.

I suspect we will have a very active season with at least one major outbreak. Predicting 1520 tornados. First max risk will be around April 9-10.

For the first tie-breaker (let's face it, these never will be breaking any ties, but just add three more elements to the contest) ... ORD managed the scanty total of 1.4" with a late surge out of deepest futility, and that came not that near even our lowest forecast, so the lower you went, the more ties you can break. Our best effort was 3.6" by vpBob21, then 4.1" from Mississauga Snow and 4.5" from Jackstraw. Our average was 7.9". The amounts have been updated in the post dated Dec 17th (edited to Jan 1st). Not much snow was reported since the November snowfall event anywhere in the contest grid except for MQT, APN and GRB.

Well I guess we will continue on then, as most of the regulars seem interested in the contest. I imagine RodneyS will be in later, he always likes to post near the deadline (which is this evening at 06z). Thanks for your comments above. Here's my shot in the dark ... +1.2 _ +1.3 _ +1.5 ___ +2.0 _ --0.3 _ --0.5 ___ +1.5 _ +0.5 _ +1.8 will post a table when I think all entries are in. This pattern reminds me a bit of 1991-92 for some reason, that was not a very exciting winter where I lived at the time (east-central Ontario).

So does the Almanac make any bold predictions for Jan or Feb? If they went with a 2010 analogue, watch for increasing snowstorm risks in their forecasts after Jan 19th. Roughly on the 2010 schedule moved forward ten days.

One of the more controversial (and difficult to test) aspects of the climate change theory is that of higher variability. We are informed that climate change will mean more severe storms, droughts, heat waves, and even snowstorms and cold spells in some versions that assign those outcomes to displacement of the polar vortex. The problem with these assertions is that mainly anecdotal evidence is offered as proof (or disproof). I thought of a way to test more objectively for such outcomes, and I should add the disclaimer that I don't have much if any idea whether the claims would prove true, false or inconclusive. This method could be called the "forwards-backwards test" and it works like this: (a) name any climate extreme that you postulate may be exacerbated by climate change (b) determine how many years back in time you have to go to find its worst known example (in recent times, let's say since 1800 and the onset of widespread atmospheric measurement) (c) now if the event does not at least duplicate itself within that number of years going forward, the claim is false. If it duplicates in a shorter period, it is true (on this count at least). If there is a tie, then the matter is inconclusive. (d) to test the assertion relative to forest fires or wildfires, some concept of exposure to risk must be applied, clearly forest fires are having greater impacts but how much of that is due to larger numbers of human-forest interactions available due to changes in lifestyle? Here's one example of the test. If we are going to see "worse heat waves" in the future, then the 1936 heat wave would need to be outdone within 83 years (by 2102). If it isn't, that claim is false. If we are going to see "worse hurricanes" then I suppose the primary test would be central pressure, since damage is a rather quirky function of track, and death toll is a further function of track combined with effectiveness of warning. I wouldn't hold the theorists to having Galveston destroyed before 2138, but perhaps the central pressure of Gilbert (1988) or Wilma (2005) equalled or lowered before 2048 (2031). For a "worse tornado outbreak" I would be looking for numbers of F4 or F5 tornado reports in one outbreak similar to either 1925 or 1974, before (in each case) 2111 or 2062. For "worse snowstorms" I would be expecting to see heavier amounts than fell in Jan 1996 within 22 years, or Great Lakes blizzards of the calibre of Jan 1978 before 2058. Critics are going to argue that these tests are too specific and too difficult to verify precisely. But if we don't hold the theory to this sort of testing, then what sort of testing is appropriate? In its absence, we face the likely prospect of the political arm of the science just claiming verification after each notable weather event, whether it meets this test or not. And while this may alarm many people, it is not actually in the scientific tradition to claim verification from uncompared data. And the problem is that we probably don't have the luxury of waiting that long to assess the theory. I have to wonder, though, if there isn't something to be said for a competing theory that variations will become less intense due to climate change. Perhaps the greenhouse gases are also interfering with stability profiles in a way that, overall, induces less extreme weather. If that were the case, would we actually want to "fix" that "problem" or not?

With no further activity in Nov-Dec, the contest is declared closed and the official results are shown in the edited table above (a few posts back). None of us managed to beat either the contest normal (87.5) or the mid-range of the NHC annual prediction (84.2), however, for that one, I assigned monthly values based on a pro-rating of the normal values. The same is true for contest winner "AfewUniversesbelownormal" (84.0) who only supplied a seasonal count (unlike all other entrants). As both UIWwildthing (83.5) and JBurns (83.0) had full entries and scored within 1.0 points of that arbitrary score, I am considering them to be joint contest winners also. Snowlover2, Blunder Storm, and NCForecaster89 also managed to beat our group consensus which finished in seventh place overall (lower ranks not affected by that placing). The best seasonal forecast (actual count was 15 8 2) came from NCForecaster89 who scored 48/50 for 15 7 3. JBurns scored 47 for 15 8 4. The best monthly total (maximum possible 50) was 39 for the assigned values of the winner "aFewUniversesBelowNormal" but in terms of actual forecasts made, 38.5 for JBurns and snowlover2. The season will likely be remembered mainly for Michael and Florence, rather than an impressive number of storms.

Extreme Forecast report for Dec 2018 and updated annual standings Seven of nine months qualified in December. DCA, NYC, BOS, ORD, ATL and SEA all ran warmer than all forecasts, so that high forecast for each was an extreme forecast winner. Those were Scotty Lightning for DCA, NYC, BOS and ATL, and wxallannj tied for DCA and winning ORD; Roger Smith took SEA. DEN was equal to high forecast (Roger Smith). IAH went to third highest forecast (Don S) which meant it did not qualify. PHX went to tied third lowest forecasts of Don S and Tom, with two considerably lower, so it also did not qualify. That leaves the final standings in the extreme forecast contest within a contest as follows ... Roger Smith _________19#-1 Scotty Lightning (SD)___13-1 RodneyS _____________12-3 __ Normal ___________ 12-7 RJay ________________10-2 wxallannj _____________6-0 wxdude64 ____________ 6-4 DonSutherland1 ________5-1 hudsonvalley21 ________ 4-0 AfewUniversesbelown.. __4-0 Orangeburgwx ________ 4#-0* so_whats_happening ___ 2-0 Stebo ________________ 2-1 Mercurial _____________ 1-0 NRG Jeff ______________1-0 BKViking ______________1-0 cerakoter1984 _________ 1-0 H2OTown_wx _________ 1-1 Tom _________________ 1-1 * no decision (Mar for IAH) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- # wins against regular field excluding "a few Univ b n" who entered two months. # x 3 for Roger Smith, one for Orangeburgwx. __________________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________________ RANKINGS for each location and region (total scores, 2018 contests) FORECASTER _______________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ east ____ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ cent ______ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ___ west ____ all nine Scotty Lightning ______________ 3 ___ 2 ___ 3 ______ 2 _______ 5 ___ 6 ___ 4 ______4 ________ 4 ___ 1 ___ 4______ 1 ______ 1 wxallannj ___________________ 2 ___ 3 ___ 2 ______ 3 _______ 1 ___ 4 ___ 3 ______ 1 ________ 2 ___ 2 ___ 9 ______ 3 ______2 Roger Smith _________________ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ______ 1 _______4 ___ 2 ___13 ______8 ________ 9 ___11 ___ 1 _____ 10 _____ 3 DonSutherland.1 _____________ 4 ___ 7 ___ 6 ______ 6 _______ 7 ___ 1 ___ 6t _____ 3 ________ 8 ___ 5 ___ 5 ______ 6 ______ 4 hudsonvalley21 ______________ 8 ___ 5 ___ 7 ______ 7 ______ 10 ___ 3 ___ 1 ______ 2 ________ 5 ___ 8 ___ 3 ______ 5 ______ 5 BKViking ____________________7 ___ 4 ___ 4 ______ 4 _______ 6 ___11t __ 2 ______ 7 ________10 ___3 ___ 2 ______ 4 ______ 6 RodneyS ____________________9 ___ 9 __ 11 ______ 9 _______ 2 ___ 7 ___ 6t _____ 5 ________ 1 ___ 7 ___ 7 ______ 2 ______ 7 Tom ________________________6 ___ 6 ___ 5 ______ 5 _______9 ___ 5 ___11 _____10 ________ 3 ___ 4 ___10 ______ 7 ______8 RJay _______________________10___11 ___ 8 _____ 10 ______ 13 ___ 8 ___10 _____12 ________ 6 ___ 9 ___ 6 ______ 8 ______9 wxdude64 ___________________5 ___ 8 ___ 9 ______ 8 _______ 8 ___ 13 ___ 9 _____11 ________11___12 __ 11 _____ 11 _____10 dmillz25 ____________________13 ___13 __ 13 _____ 13 ______11 ___ 10 ___ 5 _____ 9 ________ 7 ___ 6 ___ 8 ______ 9 _____ 11 Stebo ______________________11 ___10 __ 10 _____ 11 _______ 3 ___ 9 ___ 8 ______6 ________12 ___10 __13 ______12 _____12 jaxjagman _ (-2 mo) __________12 ___12 __ 12 _____ 12 ______ 12 ___11t __12 ____ 13 ________13 ___13 __ 12 _____ 13 _____13 ________________________________________________________________________________________________ (it should be noted that jaxjagman was in the range of 4th to 6th after ten months before dropping out). Thanks for entering the contests in 2018, hope you enjoyed the challenge, and that these rankings will help you focus in on where you can improve (in my case, pretty obvious).

--- -- <<<<==== Updated Annual Scoring Jan - Dec 2018 ====>>>> -- ---- ---- --- <<< ===-- -- -- Final Results for 2018 -- -- --===>>> --- ----   Part One: Eastern and Central (Original Six) ... best scores, first six numbers are for six locations, next two for eastern and central totals, then months won (red) ... station totals in red indicate best total scores, eastern and central in bold indicate best subtotals. ... when normal or consensus have high scores, forecasters with high scores also shown. ... best scores marked * include one for regular forecasters in contest in May excluding higher scores of AFewUniversesbelowNormal. ... best scores marked ^ include one for regular forecasters in January excluding high scores of Mercurial. ... ... but H2O (one ATL Jan) was tied already so no high score added (dmillz25 had same score marked as high score already). ... in the western contest, Cerakoter1984 had high score for PHX in April, regular forecaster RodneyS adds one there (marked #) ... same for NRGJeff's high score PHX in January (Rodney S adds another, so the # denotes 2 added) ... note the cut-off for this will be three months entered, meaning H20_Town_WX, mappy, Orangeburgwx retain sole possession of their high scores.  FORECASTER _______ DCA _NYC _BOS __ east ___ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ cent ___ TOTAL __ Best scores wxallannj __________ 700 _707 _751 ____2158 ____ 644 _642 _756 ____2042 ___ 4200 __ 001 201 .0.2 Roger Smith ________777 _770 _753 ___ 2300 ____ 606 _662 _614 ____1882 ___ 4182 __3*4*2 14*1 .3.1 __ MAY Scotty Lightning ____ 687 _761 _730 ___ 2178 ____ 603 _628 _749 ____1980 ___ 4158 __3^44 213 .5^.1_JAN^ OCT NOV DEC DonSutherland.1 ____ 684 _661 _658 ____2003 ____ 544 _716 _740 ____2000 ___ 4003 ___ 000 222 .0.2 hudsonvalley21 _____ 635 _669 _650 ____1954 ____ 513 _647 _852 ___ 2012 ___ 3966 ___ 110 001 .0.0 BKViking ___________656 _696 _688 ____2040 ____ 554 _575 _771 ____1900 ___ 3940 ___ 001 000 .0.1 ___Consensus ______ 657 _662 _670 ____1989 ____ 584 _611 _748 ____1943 ___ 3932 ___ 000 100 .0.0 RodneyS ___________617 _640 _614 ____1871 ____ 624 _619 _740 ____1983 ___ 3854 ___ 210 212 .0.5 _ MAR, JUL, SEP Tom ______________ 664 _664 _677 ____2005 ____ 531 _633 _658 ____1822 ___ 3827 ___ 101 000 .0.0 _ JUN Stebo _____________ 597 _634 _615 ____1846 ____ 623 _594 _733 ____1950 ___ 3796 ___ 020 112 .0.1 wxdude64 _________ 668 _647 _616 ____1931 ____ 540 _572 _691 ____1803 ___ 3734 ___34^0 002 .2.1 ___Normal _________593 _676 _652 ____1921 ____ 580 _565 _629 ____1774 ___ 3695 ___ 112 222 .1.1__JAN^ NOV RJay ______________616 _605 _634 ____1855 ____ 493 _618 _690 ____1801 ___ 3656 ___ 123 011 .3.2 _ APR, AUG dmillz25 ___________568 _546 _523 ____1637 ____ 503 _592 _745 ____1840 ___ 3477 ___ 000 011 .0.0 jaxjagman (-2 mo) __ 582 _587 _581 ____1750 ____ 498 _575 _645 ____1718 ___ 3468 ___ 001 000 .0.1 so_whats_happening*_327 _375_398 ____1100 ____ 360 _423 _400 ____1183 ___ 2283 ___ 000 111 .0.1 __ FEB mappy (5/12) ________170 _185 _255 ____ 610 ____ 155 _230 _216 ____ 601 ___ 1211 ___ 001 000 .0.0 Orangeburgwx_(5/12) _179 _235 _269 ____ 683 ____ 154 _135 _233 ____ 522 ____1205 ___ 001 01*0 .0.0 afewUniverses bn (2) _ 114 _122 _144 ____ 380 ____ 139 _108 _180 ____ 427 ____ 807 ___ 110 011 .0.0 Mercurial (2/12) _____ 146 _150 _133 ____ 429 ____ 110 _132 _084 ____ 326 ____ 755 ___ 110 000 .1.0 __ JAN H2O_Town_WX (3/12)_086 _105 _155 ____ 346 ____ 158 _052 _051 ____ 261 ____ 607 ___ 001 000 .0.0 H2O ___(2/12) ______ 094 _091 _071 ____ 256 ____ 056 _125 _072 ____ 253 ____ 509 ___ 000 010 .0.0 nrgJeff _ (2/12) ______116 _092 _064 ____ 272 ____ 004 _095 _037 ____ 136 ____ 408 ___ buckeyefan (1 mo J) __ 050 _066 _048 ____ 164 ____ 018 _092 _036 ____ 146 ____ 310 ___ Cerakoter1984 (1moA)_ 060_062 _062 ____ 184 ____ 020 _050 _036 ____ 106 ____ 290 ___ tnweathernut(1 mo J) _ 067_056 _036 ____ 159 ____ 029 _067 _023 ____ 119 ____ 278 ___ IntenseBlizzard2014 (D) 16 _030 _034 ____ 080 ____ 035 _004 _066 ____ 105 ____ 185 ___ CPcantmeasuresnow __ 002 _000 _000 ____ 002 ____ 038 _008 _040 ____ 086 ____ 088 ___ _________ (1 mo F) _^^ note: * so_whats_happening missed July, September, October, November, December ... A few Universes below Normal (2/12) played May and July. all others shown (2/12) missed March to December, Orangeburgwx (5/11) missed January, July to December  ... mappy (5/12) missed June to December, and H2OTown_wx (3/12) missed April to December.   Part Two: Western and All Nine contests  ... best total scores in red for three locations, best scores in months shown after total score, high western totals  for months in red ... all nine totals are shown with ranks, order of table is western scoring ... see note before first section for explanation of symbols beside best scores ...  FORECASTER __________ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ____ TOTAL (west) __ best scores (mo) ____ All Nine (= rank) Scotty Lightning (SD) ____ 649 _ 836 _ 750 ____ 2235 __________1 1 2 __ Apr, Aug __ 6393 (= 1) __OCT, NOV RodneyS_______________ 754 _ 780 _ 677 ____ 2211 __________ 2 4#2 __May, Oct__ 6065 (= 7) MAR,APR,JUL wxallannj ______________ 692 _ 820 _ 643 ____ 2155 __________ 2 1 1 __ Mar, Nov __6355 (= 2) __ DEC BKViking _______________561 _ 817 _ 768 ____ 2146 __________ 0 1 1 ____________ 6086 (= 6) __ JUN hudsonvalley21 _________ 641 _ 739 _ 755 _____2135 __________ 0 2 2 __ Jul ______ 6101 (= 5) DonSutherland.1 ________ 594 _ 794 _ 745 _____2133 __________2^2 1 __ Jan _____ 6136 (= 4) _ JAN^ __ Consensus __________ 616 _ 802 _ 700 _____2118 __________ 0 1 0 ____________6050 (= 8) Tom __________________ 664 _ 796 _ 628 _____2088 __________ 1 2 0 ____________5915 (= 8) RJay __________________638 _ 734 _ 708 _____2080 __________ 3 1 1 __ Sep ______5736 (= 9) __ SEP dmillz25 _______________ 611 _ 788 _ 675 _____2074 __________ 0 1 0 _ Jun ______ 5551 (=11) Roger Smith ____________567 _ 688 _ 810 _____2065 __________ 3 0 3 _ Jan, Dec ___6247 (= 3) __ MAY __Normal ______________628 _ 742 _ 650 _____2020 __________ 2 1 1 ____________ 5715 (=10) __ FEB wxdude64 _____________ 552 _ 680 _ 613 _____1845 __________ 0 1 0 ____________ 5579 (=10) Stebo _________________ 474 _ 711 _ 426 _____1611 __________ 1 0 0 __ Nov _____ 5407 (=12) jaxjagman __(-2 mo) ____ 427 _ 577 _ 582 _____1586 __________ 0 0 0 ____________ 5054 (=13) so_whats_happening* ____313 _ 445 _ 379 _____1137 __________ 0 0 0 ____________ 3420 (=14) __ FEB Orangeburgwx (5/12)_____251 _ 345 _ 289 _____ 885 __________ 1 3 1 __ Feb ______ 2090 (=15) mappy (5/12) ___________124 _ 208 _ 179 _____ 511 __________ 0 0 0 ____________ 1722 (=16) H2OTown__WX (3/12) ___ 053 _ 180 _ 139 _____ 372 __________ 0 0 0 ______________ 979 (=20) afewUniv bn (2 mo May,Jul)132 _ 172 _ 024 _____ 328 __________ 1 0 0 _____________1135 (=17) Mercurial __ (2/12) ______ 080 _ 120 _ 078 _____ 278 __________ 1 0 0 _____________1033 (=18) __ JAN nrgJeff ____ _(2/12) _____ 042 _ 084 _ 060 _____ 186 __________ 0 1 0 _____________ 594 (=21) H2O ____ (2/12) ________ 052 _ 082 _ 047 _____ 181 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 690 (=19) Intense Blizzard 2014 (D) __042 _ 092 _ 046 _____ 180 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 365 (=25) cerakoter1984 (1 mo Apr) _ 000 _ 080 _ 078 _____ 158 __________ 0 1 0 _____________ 448 (=22) tnweathernut (1 mo Jan) __045 _ 058 _ 050 _____ 153 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 431 (=24) buckeyewx __(1 mo Jan) __042 _ 034 _ 046 _____ 122 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 432 (=23) CPcantmeasuresnow (1-F)_ 000 _ 030 _ 012 _____ 042 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 130 (=26)  __________________________________________________________________________________________________  Regional Rumble ... ... (_ Total scores January - December _) _ Final results REGION _________ Eastern __ Central __ Western ___ TOTAL __ behind leader New York City ____2445 ____ 2394____ 2569_____ 7408 ______0 Mid-Atlantic _______ 2391 ____ 2374 ____ 2333 _____ 7098 ____310 Philadelphia _______ 2527____ 2162 ____ 2331 _____ 7020 ____388 Central + Western __2454 ____ 2021 ____ 2111 _____ 6586 ____ 822 __ Consensus _____ 1989 ____ 1943 ____ 2118 _____ 6050 ____1358 __ Normal ________ 1921 _____1774 ____ 2020 _____ 5715 ___ 1693 Great Lakes Oh Val _ 1846 ____ 1950 ____ 1611 _____ 5407 ___ 1815 Tenn Valley (10/12) _1798 ____ 1718 ____ 1596 _____ 5112 ___ 2390 _______________________________________________________________________

Final scoring for December 2018 DCA and ORD are scored from rank order, max raw score below 60 rule. FORECASTER ________________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__c/e ___ DEN_PHX_SEA__west ___ TOTAL wxallannj ___________________ 60 _ 56 _ 56 __ 172 __ 60_ 58 _ 90 __ 208__ 380 __ 78 _ 74 _ 40 __ 192 ___ 572 Scotty Lightning ______________60 _ 78_ 68 __206 __ 45 _ 64_ 94 __ 203 __ 409 __ 40_ 86 _ 34 __ 160 ___ 569 DonSutherland.1 ______________45 _ 36 _ 28 __ 109 __ 40 _ 54 _100__ 194 __ 303 __ 56 _ 96_ 56 __ 208 ___ 511 hudsonvalley21 _______________50 _ 54 _ 44 __ 148 __ 20 _ 48 _ 84 __ 152 __ 300 __ 62 _ 70 _ 62 __ 194 ___ 494 RodneyS ____________________ 40 _ 48 _ 36 __ 124 __ 50 _ 24 _ 80 __ 154 __ 278__ 64 _ 86 _ 40 __ 190 ___ 468 ___ Normal __________________40 _ 48 _ 48 __ 136 __ 43 _ 34 _ 76 __ 153 __ 289 __ 50 _ 94 _ 34 __ 178 ___ 467 Roger Smith _________________ 25 _ 22 _ 28 __ 075 __ 35 _ 08 _ 72 __ 115 __ 190 __100_ 66_ 90 __ 256 ___ 446 ___ Consensus _______________ 30 _ 32 _ 32 __ 094 __ 35 _ 08 _ 72 __ 115 __ 209 __ 56 _ 86 _ 54 __ 196 ___ 405 BKViking ____________________ 35 _ 36 _ 32 __ 103 __ 16 _ 00 _ 72 __ 088 __ 191 __ 46 _ 88 _ 50 __ 174 ___ 375 RJay ________________________25 _ 28 _ 28 __ 081 __ 25 _ 14 _ 56 __ 095 __ 176 __ 70 _ 86 _ 54 __ 210 _ 386 __________ (-3%) ____________ 24 _ 27 _ 27 __ 078 __ 24 _ 14 _ 54 __ 092 __ 170 __ 68 _ 83 _ 52 __ 203 ___ 373 IntenseBlizzard2014 ___________ 16 _ 30 _ 34 __ 080 __ 35 _ 04 _ 66 __ 105 __ 185 __ 42 _ 92 _ 46 __ 180 ___ 365 Tom ________________________30 _ 32 _ 30 __ 092 __ 12 _ 04 _ 72 __ 088 __ 180 __ 38 _ 96 _ 50 __ 184 ___ 364 Stebo _______________________12 _ 18 _ 06 __ 036 __ 55 _ 00 _ 52 __ 107 __ 143 __ 30 _ 64 _ 58 __ 152 ___ 295 dmillz25 _____________________08 _ 00 _ 00 __ 008 __ 08 _ 00 _ 52 __ 060 __ 068 __ 70 _ 74 _ 64 __ 208 ___ 276 wxdude64 ___________________ 04 _ 00 _ 00 __ 004 __ 04 _ 06 _ 68 __ 078 __ 082 __ 08 _ 84 _ 72 __ 164 ___ 246 ____________________________________________________ Provisional scoring for Regional Rumble, Dec 2018 Region ___________ Eastern __ Central __ Western ____ TOTAL PHL ________________206 ______ 203 ______ 184 _____ 593 NYC _______________ 172 ______ 208 ______ 208 _____ 588 Mid-Atl _____________124 ______ 154 ______ 190 _____ 468 ___ Normal _________ 136 ______ 153 ______ 178 _____ 467 C+W ______________ 075 ______ 115 ______ 256 _____ 446 ___ Consensus ______ 094 ______ 115 ______ 196 _____ 405 GL/OV _____________ 036 ______ 107 ______ 152 _____ 295 _______________________________________________________________

I continue to believe that Jan 19-21 will be a turning point and after that, several more winter storm chances will appear. Got to remember that most of Jan 2010 was awful with the first snow of the series on 30th.