Roger Smith

Final scoring for March 2020 Scoring is based on the provisional forecasts for end of the month (two posts back).IAH will probably require a scoring boost (max 60 rule). The two lowest raw scores remain as they would be higher than the adjusted progression scores. The late penalties are shown in separate scoring lines after raw scores (in orange type) but for wxdude64, who could only drop one point, raw scores are shown with * meaning a deduction of one point. Scores in bold are high and the color codes for warmest and coldest forecasts are retained. Note: scoring adjusted after late penalty review for April contest. Adjustments are small (reduced late penalties). FORECASTER _____________ DCA_NYC_BOS_east_ORD_ATL_IAH_cent__ c/e__ DEN_PHX_SEA_west ____ TOTAL DonSutherland.1 ___________68 _ 81 _ 80 __ 229 __ 98 _ 37 _ 24^__ 159 _ 388 __ 78 _ 84 _ 88 __ 250 _____ 638 RodneyS __________________ 78 _ 69 _ 90 __ 237 __ 86 _ 22 _ 54^__ 162 _ 399 __ 88 _ 48 _ 66 __ 202 _____ 601 RJay ______________________ 86 _ 95 _ 60 __ 241 __ 52 _ 20 _ 24^__ 096 _ 337 __ 48 _ 84 _ 96 __ 228 _____ 565 hudsonvalley21 ____________54 _ 67 _100__ 221 __ 76 _ 18 _ 30^__ 124 _ 345 __ 70 _ 88 _ 60 __ 218 _____ 563 wxallannj __________________58 _ 71 _ 90 __ 219 __ 82 _ 20 _ 24^__ 126 _ 345 __ 68 _ 68 _ 80 __ 216 _____ 561 ___ Consensus ____________ 54 _ 67 _100 __ 221 __ 64 _ 20 _ 30^__ 114 _ 335 __ 68 _ 80 _ 70 __ 218 _____ 553 BKViking __________________ 64 _ 73 _ 92 __ 229 __ 88 _ 20 _ 10 __ 118 _ 347 __ 46 _ 80 _ 88 __ 214 __ 561 _______________(-3%) _______ 62 _ 71 _ 89 __ 222 __ 85 _ 19 _ 10 __ 114 _ 336 __ 45 _ 78 _ 85 __ 208 _____ 544 Brian5671 _________________ 46 _ 45 _ 70 __ 161 __ 02 _ 77 _ 60^__ 139 _ 300 __ 38 _ 96 _ 94 __ 228 __ 528 ______________(-2%) ________ 45 _ 44 _ 69 __ 158 __ 02 _ 75 _ 59 __ 136 _ 294 __ 37 _ 94 _ 92 __ 223 _____ 517 wxdude64 ___ (-1%) ________ 48 _ 52*_ 83*__183 __ 63*_ 22_ 36^__ 121 _ 304 __ 73*_ 69*_61*__203 _____ 507 Tom _______________________36 _ 47 _ 82 __ 165 __ 40 _ 20 _ 12 __ 072 _ 237 __ 68 _ 82 _ 70 __ 220 __ 457 ____________ (-5%) __________34 _ 45 _ 78 __ 157 __ 38 _ 19 _ 11 __ 068 _ 225 __ 65 _ 78 _ 67 __ 210 _____ 435 Roger Smith _______________ 26 _ 35 _ 70 __ 131 __ 42 _ 20 _ 48^__ 110 _ 241 __98 _ 44 _ 26 __ 168 _____ 409 Scotty Lightning ___________ 16 _ 15 _ 50 __ 081 __ 22 _ 20 _ 48^__ 090 _ 171 __ 58 _ 64 _ 56 __ 178 _____ 349 ___ Normal _________________00 _ 00 _ 30 __ 030 __ 02 _ 00 _ 00 __ 002 _ 032 __ 58 _ 84 _ 66 __ 208 _____ 240 _________________________________________________________________________________ Extreme forecasts DCA, NYC, ORD, ATL and IAH -- the warmest forecasts have prevailed, earning two wins for RJay (DCA, NYC) and Brian5671 (ATL, IAH) and one for DonSutherland1 (ORD). At PHX (-0.8) the coldest forecast has won, one more for Brian5671 (total of three this month). At SEA (-1.7) the high score was second coldest (RJay -1.5) so he has a win and Brian5671 (-2.0) adds a loss to the three wins. At DEN the final value (+2.1) gives Roger Smith a win (+2.0) and RodneyS (+2.6) a loss. BOS ended up in the middle of our range and did not qualify. Annual update to follow, and this table subject to adjustments as the actual values are reported.

Update on the no-fall contest ... Here's an update on the snowfall contest. FORECASTER _________________DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ DTW _ BUF____ DEN _ SEA _ BTV ___ Snowfall to date (May 15) ___ 0.6 __ 4.8 _ 15.8 ___ 34.8 __43.7 _ 69.2 ___ 57.6 __ 0.7 _ 69.7 Tom __________________________ 27.6 _ 48.1 _ 59.8 ___ 44.5 _ 39.8 _ 97.6 ___ 68.6 __ 4.8 _ 85.1 wxallannj _____________________ 22.4 _ 33.5 _ 44.7 ___ 38,9 _ 38.8 _ 69.6 ___ 41.3 __ 7.2 _ 79.4 wxdude64 ____________________ 20.6 _ 42.5 _ 54.1 ___ 50.6 _ 52.7 _100.9 ___ 69.8 __ 9.6 _ 97.4 BKViking ______________________19.0 _ 36.0 _ 51.0 ___ 42.0 _ 29.0 _ 84.0 ___ 55.0 __ 8.0 _ 77.0 hudsonvalley21 _______________ 15.8 _ 31.2 _ 47.7 ___ 42.2 _ 52.6 _ 91.3 ___ 61.1 __10.4 _ 88.8 Roger Smith __________________ 15.5 _ 38.5 _ 55.8 ___ 60.5 _ 60.2 _102.5 ___109.7__ 7.5 _110.5 RodneyS ______________________14.4 _ 25.1 _ 40.0 ___ 35.0 _ 38.0 _100.0 ___ 80.0 __ 4.0 _ 88.0 Scotty Lightning _______________12.0 _ 24.0 _ 36.0 ___ 48.0 _ 67.0 _105.0 ___45.0 __14.0 _ 90.0 DonSutherland1 _______________10.0 _ 23.5 _ 36.0 ___ 30.0 _ 35.0 _110.0 ___ 83.0 __ 6.5 _ 90.0 ___ consensus (mean) _________ 17.5 _ 33.6 _ 47.2 ____ 44.1 _ 45.9 __95.7 ___ 68.2 __ 8.0 _ 94.0 ___ % to date ___________________ 3.5 __ 14 ___ 34 ______ 79 ___ 96 ___ 73 _____ 84 ___ 8.7 __ 75 _________________________________________________________________________________________________ In a few days I will post a scoring table, to be updated (for DEN mostly) until snow stops falling (there). It is quite unusual, I believe, for both DCA and SEA to have an essentially snowless winter, usually it would be one but not the other. Current scoring for the snowfall contest Unless shown in red, all these departures are errors on the higher side, and can be reduced if any further snowfall occurs at any locations (now only marginally possible for DEN and perhaps the inland northeast). FORECASTER _________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ DTW _ BUF __ DEN _ SEA _ BTV ____ TOTAL wxallannj _____________________ 21.8 _ 28.7 _ 28.9 ____ 4.1 __ 4.9 __ 0.4 ___ 16.3 __ 6.5 __ 9.7 ___ 121.3 BKViking ______________________18.4 _ 31.2 _ 35.2 ____ 7.2 __14.7 _ 14.8 ____2.6 __ 7.3 __ 7.3 ___ 138.7 RodneyS ______________________13.8 _ 20.3 _ 24.2 ____ 0.2 __ 5.7 _ 30.8 ____ 22.4 __3.3 _ 18.3 ___ 139.0 hudsonvalley21 _______________ 15.2 _ 26.4 _ 31.9 ____ 7.4 __ 8.9 _ 22.1 _____3.5 __ 9.7 _ 19.1 ___ 144.2 DonSutherland1 ________________9.4 _ 18.7 _ 20.2 ____ 4.8 __ 8.7 __ 40.8 ___ 25.4 __ 5.8 _ 20.3 ___ 154.1 ___ consensus (mean) _________ 16.9 _ 28.8 _ 31.4 _____ 9.3 __ 2.2 __26.5 ____ 10.6 __ 7.3 _ 24.3 ___ 157.3 Scotty Lightning _______________11.4 _ 19.2 _ 20.2 ___ 13.2 _ 23.3 _ 35.8 ____12.6__13.3 _ 20.3 ___ 169.3 Tom __________________________ 27.0 _ 43.3 _ 44.0 ____ 9.7 __ 3.9 _ 28.4 ____ 11.0 __ 4.1 _ 15.4 ___ 186.8 wxdude64 ____________________ 20.0 _ 37.7 _ 38.3 ___ 15.8 __ 9.0 _ 31.7 ___ 12.2 __ 8.9 _ 27.7 ___ 201.3 Roger Smith __________________ 14.9 _ 33.7 _ 40.0 ___ 25.7 _ 16.5 _ 34.3 ____ 52.1__ 6.8 _ 40.8 ___ 263.8 __________________________________________________________________________________ (Apr 1st) _ Standings are subject to change, especially if DEN picks up more snow, as the contest leader (wxallannj) will be accumulating error with additional DEN snowfall, and second place BKV has only 1.1" left before starting to do the same; third and fourth place Rodney and DonSutherland1 have some snow left to give -- Rodney can overtake the leader if 12" or more should fall at DEN. Otherwise it would appear that a few more inches at say BTV or ORD-DTW would make no great difference to the outcome. So we await further developments at DEN. (Apr 15th) _ DEN has picked up 1.8" this month, BUF 0.9" and DTW 0.2" -- RodneyS now needs DEN snowfall of 10.5" although any further snow at DTW adds a bit to the task. (May 4th) _ ORD and DTW both added 4.7" since last report. For the three leaders, that generally meant no significant change as they had enough to absorb that addition at ORD and were already accumulating for DTW (wxallannj gained slightly as he was not quite over the limit for DTW.) The Midwest snow did move hudsonvalley21 past DonSutherland1 in the contest standings. Since DEN has added only 1.9" since last report above, given the above slight differential, that reduces the amount needed by RodneyS now to 8.8" to catch wxallannj. RodneyS has moved to within 0.3" of second place BKV who is also now accumulating error points at DEN, so a further 0.2" would change those positions. BUF added 1.9", BOS 0.7" and BTV 0.1" -- these reduced all forecaster total errors equally. (May 16th) _ Since the last report, DTW added 0.5" BUF 0.3" and BTV 0.1" (NYC trace !) ... these amounts leave the contest in the same situation awaiting any further snow which now is almost certain to be confined to DEN (if any falls, the current model run has no really strong indications of any). I will be posting this summary in the May thread and any further edits or comments will be found there.

The Toronto (downtown) weather observatory was founded near its current location in 1840 and began compiling data on March 1st, 1840. So we have recently passed the 180th year milestone of more or less continuous observations at this location (which is near the University of Toronto or the northwest margin of the central business district). While the setting is slightly parkland by mid-town standards, it is not as modified a location as New York's Central Park observatory might be. My data analysis includes ranking all months, before and after applying an urban heat island filter to reflect the growth of the city from a small town (with presumably no urban effects) in the first few decades, to a mid-sized city by turn of the 20th century, to a large metropolitan area by 1950. All of the data compiled can be seen at this link over on the UK equivalent of this forum, Net-weather. https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/93113-toronto-180-a-north-american-data-base-of-180-years/ My plan is to transfer all of this information to a free-standing website just for the security aspects, but that may take a month or two. So for now this is the only place where the Toronto-180 project can be seen. You'll find a lot of information there including all daily records and notes on historical weather events. If you happen to have any information that didn't make my study, or feel any corrections are needed, please let me know,. This is a work in progress. My urban heat island factor was a rather conservative 1.1 C (2.0 F) adjustment to the recent data, and a scaled fraction of that from 1881 to 1980. It could be argued that the city has a larger heat island than 1.1 C, but a lot of weather patterns in the Great Lakes are UHI-unfriendly, for example, cold and wet spells, windy weather and cloudy conditions in general. The 1.1 C is really a blend of a few occasions of 3-5 C or more urban heating, and long intervals of smaller or zero increases. One needs to separate out the urban effect from the site's natural climatic tendency being close to the Lake Ontario shoreline (4-5 kms inland at various times in the 180 year history). Even with no city there, the location would see a natural warming tendency in southeast winds in winter, changing some mixed precipitation over to rain. The urban heat island probably adds somewhat to that geographical tendency. For whatever combination of reasons, winter snowfall is shown to have decreased by 30% in recent decades, and those had decreased by an even larger amount relative to the bonanza snowfall winters of about 1860 to 1875. There are some surprises in the adjusted temperatures even if my UHI estimate is too low. The warmest September becomes 1881, and the warmest July even before adjustments was 1921. The warmest January was 1932. It's not all about modern warming although there is plenty of that in evidence (in particular, record high minima are being set at a rapid pace in recent decades). Whatever your opinions on climate change, you'll find this an interesting data base. My objective was to produce something to rival the CET (and EWP) data bases for both longevity and data quality. I have spent a long time amassing these data, starting from a printed publication issued in 1968 covering the years 1840 to 1967. I've had that since a few days after it appeared in print and marked it up extensively. The rest of the data came from the on-line historical data section of the Environment Canada website. I also cross-checked my computer files built up over the past twenty years from the printed version and the on-line additions for accuracy. With this volume of data, it's perhaps inevitable that one or two typographical errors might remain but I did go through the ranking tables with a special program designed to verify that all years appeared once and only once, and in the correct location. I'm hoping hard work will prove to be an antidote to the virus but maybe living in the middle of nowhere might help also.

Here's an update on anomalies and projections ... ___________________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH __ DEN _PHX _SEA 18th _____ (17 d) __________ +7.1 _+8.0 _+6.0 __+6.7 _+5.0 _+8.4 __+5.4 _+1.8 _--2.5 25th _____ (24d) ___________+6.9 _+6.6 _+4.7 __+5.0 _+6.3 _+8.4 __+2.6 _+0.1 _--1.7 18th ____ (p24 d) __________ +5.0 _+5.5 _+4.0 __+4.0 _+3.5 _+6.0 __+3.5 _+1.0 _--1.5 18th ____ (p31 d) __________ +4.5 _+4.5 _+3.0 __+2.5 _+2.5 _+4.0 __+2.5 _+0.5 _--1.0 25th ____ (p31 d) __________ +6.0 _+6.0 _+5.0 __+4.0 _+7.0 _+8.0 __+2.0 __0.0 _--1.0 Final anomalies ___________ +6.4 _+5.5_+3.7e__+4.9_+7.3 _+8.3 __+2.1 _--0.8 _--1.7 __________________________________________________________ Current GFS guidance suggests temperatures somewhat closer to average than the warm start for the month, but except for the western states, anomalies will remain significantly above normal. Small negative anomalies for SEA may largely disappear in coming days but a few colder days are indicated in the outlook. FWIW, there's a major arctic outbreak coming for April 1st in the Great Lakes and northeast. (25th) _ Updated through the 24th and projections look very warm for the eastern and central locations, although only slightly warmer than our higher forecasts, so well done to most ... will post some provisional scores in a while. (1st April) _ Final anomalies are posted (as of 1230z) except for BOS which is estimated from 30th CF6 and 31st climate reports. Scoring adjustments will be ongoing until scoring post title changes to Final Scoring.

It was the 10th mildest winter in the past 180 at Toronto (unadjusted for urban heat island, if adjusted, would rank 15th). Some fairly similar winters include 1918-19 and 1932-33. So far there hasn't been much sign of a late winter recovery, seems that the most likely outcome will be a gradual transition to a warmer than average spring. I can't imagine a more boring winter than this, weather-wise, on a global basis. Even Moscow is too warm.

Forecasts for March, 2020 FORECASTER _____________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA RJay _______________________+5.0 _+5.0 _+5.5 __+2.5 _+2.0 _+1.5 ___--0.5 __0.0 _-1.5 RodneyS __________________ +4.6 _+3.7 _+4.0 __+4.2 _+2.2 _+3.0 ___+2.6 _+1.8 __0.0 DonSutherland.1 ___________+4.1 _+4.3 _+4.5 __+5.0 _+3.0 _+1.5 ___+1.0 __0.0 _--1.1 BKViking _____ (-4%) _______+3.9 _+3.9 _+3.9 __+4.3 _+2.0 _+1.0 ___--0.6_ +0.2_ --1.1 wxallannj _________________ +3.6 _+3.8 _+4.0 __+4.0 _+2.0 _+1.5 ___+0.5_ +0.8_ --0.7 hudsonvalley21 ____________+3.4 _+3.6 _+3.5 __+3.7 _+1.8 _+1.7 ___+0.6_ --0.2_ +0.3 ___ Consensus ____________ +3.4 _+3.6 _+3.5 __+3.1 _+2.0 _+1.7 ___+0.5_ +0.2_ --0.2 wxdude64 ___ (-1%) _______ +3.1 _+2.9 _+2.7 __+3.1 _+2.2 _+1.8 ___+0.8_ +0.7_ +0.2 Brian5671 ___ (-3%) _______ +3.0 _+2.5 _+2.0 ___0.0 _+5.0 _+3.5 ___--1.0_ --1.0_ --2.0 Tom ________ (-7%) ________ +2.5 _+2.6 _+2.6 __+1.9 _+2.0 _+1.2 ___+0.5_ +0.1_ --0.2 Roger Smith ______________ +2.0 _+2.0_ +2.0 __+2.0 _+2.0 _+2.0 ___+2.0_ +2.0_ +2.0 Scotty Lightning __________ +1.5 _+1.0_ +1.0 __+1.0 _+2.0 _+2.0 ____0.0_ +1.0_ +0.5 ___ Normal _________________ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ___0.0 __0.0 __0.0 _____0.0 __0.0 __0.0 _______________________________________________________________________ Consensus is the median of 11 forecasts or the 6th ranked forecast. Color codes show warmest and coolest forecasts, but Normal is lower for DCA, NYC, BOS, ATL and IAH and equal for ORD. ... Will move over the snowfall contest for easier reference and plenty of laffs.

Four Seasons -- Winter 2019-20 scoring This year, I will go back to a simpler format for this contest within a contest. Just points for total score ... ten for top score, seven for second highest, and down from there to one point for eighth (nothing for 9th or 10th this time). So this is the first of four scoring rounds in the four seasons contest. FORECASTER ___________________ Dec-Jan-Feb total points _____ Four seasons points RodneyS ________________________ 1751 ________________________ 10 wxallannj _______________________ 1615 __________________________ 7 BKViking _______________________ 1483 __________________________ 6 DonSutherland 1 ________________1391 __________________________ 5 hudsonvalley21 _________________ 1388 __________________________4 Tom ____________________________ 1296 __________________________3 Scotty Lightning ________________ 1220 __________________________ 2 wxdude64 ______________________ 1190 __________________________1 ________________________________________________ Consensus with 1410 would also score 5.

< < < < < ........ <<<< ---- ====== Annual Scoring (Jan-Feb) 2020 ====== ---- >>>> .......> > > > > Numbers in red denote highest cumulative scores for each of nine locations. Numbers in bold black type denote highest subtotals for regions. FORECASTER ________________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__ c/e __DEN_PHX_SEA__west ___ TOTAL RodneyS _____________________168_143 _121 __ 432 __167_149_116 __ 432 __ 864 __114_140_134__388_____1252 wxallannj ____________________ 110 _123 _ 99 __ 332 __ 73 _129 _110 __ 312 __ 644 __ 88_174_108__370 _____1014 Brian5671 ____________________192_169_119__ 480 __ 70 _ 153_114 __ 337 __ 817 __ 04 _ 96 _ 56 __ 156 _____ 973 RJay _________________________ 134 _141_105__ 380 __ 47 _117_104 __ 268 __ 648 __ 98 _134_ 56 __ 288 _____ 936 BKViking _____________________ 100 _ 89 _ 87 __ 276 __ 67 _121 _116 __ 304 __ 580 __ 88 _162_ 72 __ 322 _____ 902 ___ Consensus ________________ 94 _ 81 _ 75 __ 250 __ 67 _119_116 __ 302 __ 552 __ 64 _172_108 __ 344 _____ 896 Tom ___________________________ 78 _ 67 _ 57 __ 202 __ 73 _115_108__ 296 __ 498 __ 56 _184_112 __ 352 _____ 850 hudsonvalley21 ________________ 70 _ 75 _ 61 __ 206 __ 65 _117_ 86 __ 268 __ 474 __ 78 _178_108 __ 364 _____ 838 Don Sutherland.1 ______________104 _101_ 75 __ 280 __ 97 _ 89_100 __ 286 __ 566 __ 36 _ 86 _124 __ 246 _____ 812 Scotty Lightning ________________34 _ 29 _ 15 __ 078 __ 60 _ 97_114 __ 271 __ 349 __ 62 _172_146 __ 380 _____ 729 yoda ___________________________64 _ 43 _ 16 __ 123 __ 18_118 _125 __ 261 __ 384 __ 71 _161_ 70 __ 302 _____ 686 wxdude64 _____________________ 34 _ 22 _ 08 __ 064 __ 35 _103_131__ 269 __ 333 __ 41 _169_100__ 310 _____ 643 ___ Normal _____________________04 _ 04 _ 00 __ 008 __ 50 _ 46 _ 94 __ 190 __ 198 __ 34 _ 176_146__ 356 _____ 554 Roger Smith ___________________ 26 _ 20 _ 28^__ 074 __ 47 _107_ 88 __ 242 __ 316 __ 36 _ 72 _ 30 __ 138 _____ 454 JakkelWx _ (1/2) ________________28 _ 21 _ 40 __ 089 __ 07 _ 37 _ 48 __ 092 __ 181 __ 12 _ 88 _ 06 __ 106 _____ 287 rclab _ (1/2) ____________________05 _ 00 _ 00 __ 005 __ 00 _ 11 _ 24 __ 035 __ 040 ___ 56 _ 88 _ 66 __ 210 _____ 250 dwave _ (1/2) __________________ 72 _ 75 _ 48 __ 195 __ 12 _ 25 _ 10 __ 047 __ 242 ___ 16 _ 34 _ 00 __ 050 _____ 292 Rhino16 _ (1/2) ________________ 00 _ 05 _ 20 __ 025 __ 00 _ 13 _ 30 __ 043 __ 068 ___ 04 _ 52 _ 54 __ 110 _____ 178 ============================================================================== Extreme forecast standings 14 of 18 forecasts so far have qualified for an extreme forecast award for the warmest forecast(s), 12 for warmest and two for coldest. FORECASTER ____ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _ Apr _ May etc ___ Standings to date Brian 5671 _______ 4-0 __ 1-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- _________ 5 - 0 RodneyS _________ 2-0 __ 3-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- _________ 5 - 0 Scotty Lightning __2-0 __ 0-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- _________ 2 - 0 RClab ____________ 2-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- _________ 2 - 0 DonSutherland1___0-0 __ 1-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- _________ 1 - 0 yoda _____________ 0-0 __ 1-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- _________ 1 - 0 Tom _____________ 1-0 __ 0-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- _________ 1 - 0 Normal ___________1-0 __ 0-1 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- _________ 1 - 1 ================================================================================ BEST SCORES -- Totals for January and February Forecasters are listed in same order as annual points standings. Only those who have any best scores are listed. Ties are possible which is why some locations have more than two best scores, also, if Normal or consensus achieve a top score, the actual forecaster with high score gets an award also. FORECASTER ______________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA__west___Months RodneyS ___________________ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 2 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 _____ 2 _ Jan, Feb wxallannj ___________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 Brian5671 __________________ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 ___ Consensus ______________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 Tom ________________________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 hudsonvalley21 _____________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 DonSutherland1 ____________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 Scotty Lightning ____________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 _____ 0 yoda _______________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 _____ Normal _______________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 _____ 0 RClab _______________________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 _____ 0

+2 at all locations for me.

Final scoring for February 2020 Scoring based on final values for February as shown in the previous post. Top scores in bold, warmest and coldest color codes still apply to this table. DEN has reverted to normal scoring from original "max score 60" rule as the maximum raw score improved to 70. FORECASTER ____________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA__west__TOTALS RodneyS __________________ 96 _ 88 _ 69 __ 253 __ 96 _ 78 _ 42 __ 216 __ 469 __ 62 _ 82 _ 88 __ 232 ___ 701 wxallannj __________________68 _ 78 _ 51 __ 197 __ 66 _ 94 _ 86 __ 246 __ 443 __ 44 _ 94 _ 82 __ 220 ___ 663 BKViking __________________ 70 _ 64 _ 47 __ 181 __ 62 _ 90 _ 86 __ 238 __ 419 __ 52 _ 90 _ 52 __ 194 ___ 613 ___ Consensus ____________ 64 _ 60 _ 43 __ 167 __ 60 _ 88 _ 86 __ 234 __ 401 __ 28 _100 _ 76 __ 204 ___ 605 Tom ______________________ 62 _ 56 _ 41 __ 159 __ 60 _ 88 _ 92 __ 240 __ 399 __ 08 _ 96 _ 80 __ 184 ___ 583 RJay ______________________ 64 _ 64 _ 49 __ 177 __ 20 _ 86 _ 90 __ 196 __ 373 __ 62 _ 86 _ 56 __ 204 ___ 577 Brian5671 _________________ 96 _ 84 _ 59 __ 239 __ 70 _ 54 _ 50 __ 174 __ 413 __ 00 _ 94 _ 56 __ 150 ___ 563 hudsonvalley21 ___________ 56 _ 54 _ 37 __ 147 __ 40 _ 94 _ 76 __ 210 __ 357 __ 34 _ 98 _ 68 __ 200 ___ 557 DonSutherland.1 __________ 74 _ 68 _ 43 __ 185 __ 80 _ 78 _ 96 __ 254 __ 439 __ 00 _ 24 _ 76 __ 100 ___ 539 Scotty Lightning ___________ 24 _ 24 _ 10 __ 058 __ 60 _ 76 _ 80 __ 216 __ 274 __ 02 _ 84 _ 96 __ 182 ___ 456 Yoda ______________________ 36 _ 24 _ 00 __ 060 __ 16 _ 92 _ 90 __ 198 __ 258 __ 70 _ 92 _ 40 __ 202_(460) _________ (-10%) ___________ 32 _ 22 _ 00 __ 054 __ 14 _ 83 _ 81 __ 178 __ 232 __ 63 _ 83 _ 36 __ 182 ___ 414 wxdude64 _________________14 _ 10 _ 00 __ 024 __ 28 _ 72 _ 94 __ 194 __ 218 __ 22 _ 98 _ 74 __ 194_(412) ____________ (-3%) __________14 _ 10 _ 00 __ 024 __ 27 _ 70 _ 91 __ 188 __ 212 __ 21 _ 95 _ 72 __ 188 ___ 400 ___ Normal ________________04 _ 04 _ 00 __ 008 __ 50 _ 46 _ 90 __ 186 __ 194 __ 12 _ 84 _ 96 __ 192 ___ 386 Roger Smith _______________10 _ 06 _ 00 __ 016 __ 42 _ 76 _ 80 __ 198 __ 214 __ 00 _ 04 _ 00 __ 004 ___ 218 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- __ Extreme forecast report __ DCA, NYC, BOS, IAH and DEN qualified for an extreme forecast. DCA (+4.8) _ Brian 5671 (+5.0) has a tie with RodneyS at +4.6. RodneyS will take NYC (+4.8) and BOS (+6.1). DonSutherland1 (+0.7) will take IAH with the lowest forecast still a bit higher than the outcome of +0.5. For DEN, yoda has the high score for coldest forecast and after late penalties remains a point ahead of tied RodneyS and RJay, so that will count as a win for yoda. The other locations appear headed for a high score near our consensus, so no extreme forecasts at ORD, ATL, PHX or SEA. =========================================================

Predict the temperature anomalies (F deg) relative to 1981-2010 normals for DCA_NYC_BOS __ ORD_ATL_IAH ___ DEN_PHX_SEA Deadline 06z Sunday March 1st. The usual late penalties apply (hopefully to nobody).

____________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA _(9th) __ (8d) ______+9.3 _ +9.4 _ +8.8 __ +9.6 _ +7.7 _ +3.1 ___--3.6 _ --4.3 _ +0.1 (16th) __ (15d) ____ +7.0 _ +6.3 _ +6.3 __ +3.9 _ +6.4 _ +1.7 ___--6.1 _ --2.9 _ +0.2 (23rd) __ (22d) ____ +5.6 _ +4.8 _ +5.2 __ +2.7 _ +4.2 _ +1.4 ___--6.0 _ --0.6 _ +0.1 _(9th) __ (p 15d) ___+6.0 _ +5.0 _ +4.0 __ +4.0 _ +5.0 _ +2.0 ___--3.0 _ --3.0 __ 0.0 (16th) __ (p22d) ___+4.0 _ +3.0 _ +2.0 __ +2.0 _ +3.5 _ +1.0 ___ --3.0 _ --1.5 _ --0.5 _(9th) __ (p 25d) ___+4.0 _ +3.0 _ +2.0 __ +2.0 _ +4.0 _ +1.5 ___--1.0 _ --2.0 __+0.5 (16th) __ (p29d) ___ +5.0 _ +4.0 _ +3.0 __ +3.0 _ +4.5 _ +1.5 ___--1.5 _ --0.5 __0.0 (23rd) __ (p29d) ___ +5.0 _ +4.0 _ +4.0 __ +2.0 _ +4.0 _ +0.5 ___--4.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 (28th) __ (p29d) ___ +5.0 _ +5.0 _ +6.0 __ +2.5 _ +2.5 _ +0.5 ___--4.5 _ --0.5 _ +0.5 Final anomalies ___ +4.8 _ +4.8 _ +6.1 __ +2.5 _ +2.7 _ +0.5 ___--4.4 _ --0.8 _ +0.2 (9th) __ The month has started out quite mild in the east and cold in the southwest, near average for SEA. The coming week is likely to cut into the larger anomalies with a colder period expected in the east by mid-week. The projections for the last part of the outlook are based on a continuation of trends established next week. (28th) __ Have updated the most likely projections using 27d CF6 and 28th climate reports. Provisional scoring to follow. (Mar 1st) _ Final anomalies are now posted, including BOS which had earlier posted with 29th missing. Scoring is now entirely finalized and I will generate annual totals later today.

Looks good for n VT and s QC though, will say 15" for BTV.

Hey yoda, sorry I didn't get back to you, this is my first time back into the thread since a few hours before you posted. Our late penalties begin to increase just around when you posted, so you didn't do too badly on that, -10% and maybe your later entry gained you some of that back. Look for your entry in the table after I get going here, and I will re-set consensus.

Table of entries for February 2020 FORECASTER ________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Brian5671 ___________________ +5.0 _ +4.0 _ +3.5 __ +4.0 _ +5.0 _ +3.0 ___ +1.0 _ --0.5 _ --2.0 RodneyS _____________________ +4.6 _ +4.2 _ +4.0 __ +2.7 _ +3.8 _ +3.4 ___ --2.5 _ --1.7 _ +0.8 DonSutherland.1 _____________ +3.5 _ +3.2 _ +2.7 __ +1.5 _ +1.6 _ +0.7 ___ +2.0 _ +3.0 _ --1.0 BKViking _____________________ +3.3 _ +3.0 _ +2.9 __ +0.6 _ +2.2 _ +1.2 ___ --2.0 _ --1.3 _ --2.2 wxallannj _____________________+3.2 _ +3.7 _ +3.1 __ +0.8 _ +2.4 _ +1.2 ___ --1.6 _ --1.1 _ --0.7 RJay _________________________ +3.0 _ +3.0 _ +3.0 __ --1.5 _ +2.0 _ +1.0 ___ --2.5 _ --1.5 _ --2.0 ___ Consensus _______________ +3.0 _ +2.8 _ +2.7 __ +0.5 _ +2.1 _ +1.2 ___ --0.8 _ --0.8 _ --1.0 Tom _________________________ +2.9 _ +2.6 _ +2.6 __ +0.5 _ +2.1 _ +0.9 ___ +0.2 _ --0.6 _ --0.8 hudsonvalley21 ______________ +2.6 _ +2.5 _ +2.4 __ --0.5 _ +2.4 _ +1.7 ___ --1.1 _ --0.9 _ --1.4 Yoda ________ (-10%) _________ +1.6 _ +1.0 _ --0.2 __ --1.7 _ +3.1 _ +1.0 ___ --2.9 _ --1.2 _ --2.8 Scotty Lightning ______________+1.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 __ +0.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 ___ +0.5 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 wxdude64 ____ (-3%) __________+0.5 _ +0.3 _ --0.3 __ --1.1 _ +1.3 _ +0.8 ___ --0.5 _ --0.7 _ --1.1 Roger Smith __________________ +0.3 _ +0.1 _ --0.2 __ --0.4 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 ___ +7.0 _ +4.0 _ +6.3 ___ Normal _____________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Consensus is the median of twelve forecasts so the average of 6th and 7th ranked forecasts. Highest and lowest forecasts color coded, but Normal has coldest forecast for DCA, NYC, ATL and IAH.

Here's an update on the snowfall contest. FORECASTER _________________DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ DTW _ BUF____ DEN _ SEA _ BTV ___ Snowfall to date (Feb 29) ___ 0.6 __ 4.8 _ 15.1 ___ 26.9 __36.6 _ 62.5 ___ 46.4 __ 0.7 _ 63.0 Tom __________________________ 27.6 _ 48.1 _ 59.8 ___ 44.5 _ 39.8 _ 97.6 ___ 68.6 __ 4.8 _ 85.1 wxallannj _____________________ 22.4 _ 33.5 _ 44.7 ___ 38,9 _ 38.8 _ 69.6 ___ 41.3 __ 7.2 _ 79.4 wxdude64 ____________________ 20.6 _ 42.5 _ 54.1 ___ 50.6 _ 52.7 _100.9 ___ 69.8 __ 9.6 _ 97.4 BKViking ______________________19.0 _ 36.0 _ 51.0 ___ 42.0 _ 29.0 _ 84.0 ___ 55.0 __ 8.0 _ 77.0 hudsonvalley21 _______________ 15.8 _ 31.2 _ 47.7 ___ 42.2 _ 52.6 _ 91.3 ___ 61.1 __10.4 _ 88.8 Roger Smith __________________ 15.5 _ 38.5 _ 55.8 ___ 60.5 _ 60.2 _102.5 ___109.7__ 7.5 _110.5 RodneyS ______________________14.4 _ 25.1 _ 40.0 ___ 35.0 _ 38.0 _100.0 ___ 80.0 __ 4.0 _ 88.0 Scotty Lightning _______________12.0 _ 24.0 _ 36.0 ___ 48.0 _ 67.0 _105.0 ___45.0 __14.0 _ 90.0 DonSutherland1 _______________10.0 _ 23.5 _ 36.0 ___ 30.0 _ 35.0 _110.0 ___ 83.0 __ 6.5 _ 90.0 ___ consensus (mean) _________ 17.5 _ 33.6 _ 47.2 ____ 44.1 _ 45.9 __95.7 ___ 68.2 __ 8.0 _ 94.0 ___ % to date ___________________ 3.5 __ 14 ___ 32 ______ 61 ___ 80 ___ 65 _____ 68 ___ 8.7 __ 67

Final Scoring for January 2020 Scoring for BOS had to go to the "max 60" format since even the best forecast had a raw score of 50. Also DEN required minimum progression, the maximum raw score was only 42 (Scotty Lightning). Scoring for ORD did not require a boost as RodneyS prevented it with a raw score of 71. (final anom +6.3 means one point per 0.1 to +1.3 and two points per 0.1 beyond that to Rodney's max of 4.2, had anyone been in the 5.0-6.3 zone they would have been adding on a point per 0.1 there). Other scoring has a clear cut raw score above 60 to prevent any minimum progression scoring. This was a month where you could "cash in" on an extreme forecast for sure. ^ Scores adjusted for "minimum progression" rule, max 60, scoring intervals of 4 points used. Your raw score counts if it's higher than the progression value. This applied to one score (05 rather than 04). This year I will be changing how I score Normal, it cannot receive points from minimum progression, that way we know what the actual "climate" score of Normal really is. In the old system, Normal would have scored 2 points at BOS, but this year, zero. For DEN, Normal would have scored 38 (being between assigned scores of 40 voided by tie at 44, and 36) but the climate score is 22 there. FORECASTER ________________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__ c/e __DEN_PHX_SEA__west ___ TOTAL RodneyS ______________________ 72 _ 55 _ 52^___ 179 __ 71 _ 71 _ 74 __ 216 __ 395 __ 52^_ 58 _ 46 __ 156 _____ 551 Brian5671 ____________________ 96 _ 85 _ 60^___ 241 __ 00 _ 99 _ 64 __ 163 __ 404 __ 04^_ 02 _ 00 __ 006 _____ 410 RJay __________________________ 70 _ 77 _ 56^___ 203 __ 27 _ 31 _ 14 __ 072 __ 275 __ 36^_ 48 _ 00 __ 084 _____ 359 wxallannj ______________________42 _ 45 _ 48^___ 135 __ 07 _ 35 _ 24 __ 066 __ 201 __ 44^_ 80 _ 26 __ 150 _____ 351 dwave ________________________ 72 _ 75 _ 48^___ 195 __ 12 _ 25 _ 10 __ 047 __ 242 __ 16^_ 34 _ 00 __ 050 _____ 292 ___ Consensus ________________ 30 _ 21 _ 32^___ 083 __ 07 _ 31 _ 30 __ 068 __ 151 __ 36^_ 72 _ 32 __ 140 _____ 291 BKViking ______________________ 30 _ 25 _ 40^___ 095 __ 05 _ 31 _ 30 __ 066 __ 161 __ 36^_ 72 _ 20 __ 128 _____ 289 JakkelWx ______________________28 _ 21 _ 40^___ 089 __ 07 _ 37 _ 48 __ 092 __ 181 __ 12^_ 88 _ 06 __ 106 _____ 287 hudsonvalley21 ________________ 14 _ 21 _ 24^___ 059 __ 25 _ 23 _ 10 __ 058 __ 117 __ 44^_ 80 _ 40 __ 164 _____ 281 Scotty Lightning ________________10 _ 05 _ 05 ___ 020 __ 00 _ 21 _ 34 __ 055 __ 075 __ 60^_ 88 _ 50 __ 198 _____ 273 Don Sutherland.1 ______________ 30 _ 33 _ 32^___ 095 __ 17 _ 11 _ 04 __ 032 __ 127 __ 36^_ 62 _ 48 __ 146 _____ 273 yoda __________________________ 32 _ 21 _ 16^___ 069 __ 04 _ 35 _ 44 __ 083 __ 152 __ 08^_ 78 _ 34 __ 120 _____ 272 Tom ___________________________ 16 _ 11 _ 16^___ 043 __ 13 _ 27 _ 16 __ 056 __ 099 __ 48^_ 88 _ 32 __ 168 _____ 267 rclab ___________________________05 _ 00 _ 00 ___ 005 __ 00 _ 11 _ 24 __ 035 __ 040 __ 56^_ 88 _ 66 __ 210 _____ 250 wxdude64 _____________________ 20 _ 12 _ 08^___ 040 __ 08 _ 33 _ 40 __ 081 __ 121 __ 20^_ 74 _ 28 __ 122 _____ 243 Roger Smith ___________________ 16 _ 14 _ 28^___ 058 __ 05 _ 31 _ 08 __ 044 __ 102 __ 36^_ 68 _ 30 __ 134 _____ 236 Rhino16 _______________________ 00 _ 05 _ 20^___ 025 __ 00 _ 13 _ 30 __ 043 __ 068 __ 04^_ 52 _ 54 __ 110 _____ 178 ___ Normal _____________________00 _ 00 _ 00 ___ 000 __ 00 _ 00 _ 04 __ 004 __ 004 __ 22 _ 92 _ 50 __ 164 _____ 168 ============================================================================== Extreme forecast report All nine locations qualify for an extreme forecast award for the warmest forecast(s), even PHX which only finished at +0.5. Brian 5671 scoops four of them (DCA, NYC, BOS and ATL. RodneyS has two for ORD and IAH. RClab has two for PHX and SEA (PHX shared with Scotty Lightning and Normal which had the highest score but cannot win solo). and Scotty Lightning has a second one for DEN. Tom tied for top score with the extreme forecasts so gets a win also for PHX. ================================================================================ Congrats to RodneyS and Brian 5671 for their top scores in various sections, also well done to RClab for the high score in the west. Although two locations (ATL, IAH) will be adjustable for anomalies, all scores will move in lock-step.

I think that storm in early March 1914 was more noteworthy for low central pressure and wind speeds than snowfall, must have dumped some snow inland New England but I seem to remember NYC had a record low pressure? Don must know. Another March as cold as 1960 may be a big ask, that one was top ten cold for many locations. It stayed wintry to the end of the month in the GL region. Will speculate that Feb 19-23 is the sweet spot for any late winter heroics, should be a good set of energy peaks then, hoping the GFS is on the right track with its recent output showing a rather promising pattern developing. Of course the best part of the GFS is usually day 16. Here's that storm on the wetterzentrale map archive, appears to have been a fast deepening coastal that moved up from east of FL on Feb 28 to east of NJ then stalled close to current JFK-ISP. https://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?map=2&model=noaa&var=1&jaar=1914&maand=03&dag=02&uur=0600&h=0&tr=360&nmaps=24#mapref The winter of 1913-14 was a strange one, at Toronto they had a very mild Dec, Jan went from extreme cold mid-month to record warmth end of month, then Feb returned to record cold mid-month, then this coastal bomb.

Why do we even have a minus sign on our keyboards? That is the burning question .. +0.3 _ +0.1 _ --0.2 __ --0.4 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 __ +7.0 _ +4.0 _ +6.3 off to deal with the inevitable avalanches

Was there not a very deep low off the NJ coast around March 1-2, 1914?

I may be hopecasting but it feels like this winter is going to ease into some kind of big storm maybe in March. There wasn't much to the winter of 1992-93 before February (one fairly big storm in early December?). Energy seems to be running rather low but the models are starting to amplify. You get the feeling maybe this winter won't go quietly. But it has been one big snoozefest to date, even where I live and we get a lot of snow, it has not been all that active. We have nickel-and-dimed our way to 18" of snow cover but normal here is 24-30".

Predict the temperature anomalies (F deg) relative to 1981-2010 for DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA (deadline 06z Sat Feb 1st) good luck !!

8-12 inch potential on Feb 8th (12z GFS) so maybe this is not over yet.

Updated anomalies and projections: ____________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA (8th) ____ (7d anom) _______ +8.9 _+8.2 _+10.5 __+10.6 _+6.0 _+4.4 __ +7.1 _ --0.9 _+6.6 (15th) ___ (14d anom) _____+10.2_+10.0_+12.3__ +9.2_+10.5 _+5.7 ___ +4.1 _--1.4_ +1.0 (22nd) __ (21d anom) ______ +7.4 _ +6.9 _ +8.8 __ +5.3 _ +8.3 _+6.5 ___ +3.3 _--0.2_ +1.3 (8th) ____ (p14d) ___________ +7.0 _+6.5 _+8.0 __ +5.0 _ +4.0 _ +2.5 __ +3.0 _--1.0 _ +1.0 (15th) ___ (p21d) ___________+5.0 _+5.0 _+5.5 __ +4.0 _+5.0 _+3.0 ___ +1.5 _--1.0 _--0.5 (22nd) __ (p28d) ____________+5.0 _+4.5 _+6.0 __ +3.5 _+5.0 _+4.0 ___ +2.5 __0.0 _+1.8 (8th) ____ (24d) _____________+5.0 _+5.0 _+5.0 __ +1.0 _ +2.0 __0.0 ____0.0 __ 0.0 _ --2.5 (15th) ___ (31d) _____________+3.5 _+3.5 _+3.5 __ +2.0 _+4.0 _+2.0 ___ +2.0 __0.0 _+0.5 (22nd) ___ (31d) ____________ +4.5 _+4.0 _+5.0 __ +3.0 _+4.5 _+3.5 ___ +2.0 __0.0 _+2.0 (end of month final anoms) _ +6.4 _+6.5 _+9.0 __ +6.3 _+5.9 _+4.8 ___ +3.9 _+0.4 _+3.0 __________________ _ _______________ _ __________________ (8th) _ The month has started out very mild in all regions. Much colder air is pressing south from western Canada and will soon be impacting on those positive anomalies in ORD, DEN and SEA. The effects will be weaker or slower to arrive in the east and south. Even in the outlook period (days 8 to 16) the east coast will remain rather mild with occasional colder interludes, while the severe cold in central regions may begin to shift more to eastern Canada. (15th) _ Large positive anomalies have continued to build over central and eastern regions while the west turned quite cold in the second week. Forecasts for this coming week begin to eat away at the larger anomalies and should see them reduced to contest-range values at some point around the 21st. This trend will peter out later in the month with a more variable regime expected. End of month projections show reduced but still fairly sizeable positive anomalies at most locations. (22nd) _ The huge anomalies at mid-month have been somewhat reduced but not by quite as much as predicted a week ago. The trend from now to end of month looks rather close to average January values and a good chunk of the present anomalies will survive. Will post some preliminary scoring based on these estimates which are by and large higher than most forecasts except for western stations. (Feb 1st) _ Sorry to report that life got rather hectic here and I never had a chance to create any provisional scoring. We're now into final scoring territory with the final anomalies rolling in overnight. Will be posting the scoring table soon, it is now final with all the anomalies confirmed (see table above) and the next post for the scores. At least in January I don't have the task of working on the annual scoring table (hurray for January, my favorite month).

Looks like a slowly improving trend over the second half of January from current guidance. No obvious big hits but potential is growing towards end of the current GFS run. I thought this might be a back-loaded winter anyway so if it starts up that quickly, could become epic.