Roger Smith

So nice to be able to work at a normally fast speed on this website again, so here's the picture after one week of October ... and it's cold out west, snowing outside my place right now (I am near 4,000 feet up a hill in southern BC but it's quite early for this elevation to get snow, surrounding peaks of 7-8k feet are covered from the last event we had in late September when a foot of snow fell nearby) ... ______________________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA _ 8th ______________ (7d) ______________+8.9 _ +3.6 _ +1.4 ___+3.3 _+13.2 _+6.9 ___ --1.4 _ --0.3 _ --1.4 _15th _____________ (14d) ____________ +6.3 _ +2.9 _ +1.8 ___+0.8 _ +9.1 _ +3.5 ___ --3.8 _ --0.2 _ --2.9 _22nd _____________ (21d) ____________+4.0 _ +1.7 _ +1.8e___+0.6 _ +5.8 _ +3.0 ___ --2.8 _ +0.3 _ --1.8 _29th _____________ (28d) ____________ +4.2 _ +2.5 _ +2.8 ___ --0.4 _ +5.1 _ +1.3 ___ --4.8 _ +0.1 _ --1.5 _ 8th _____________ (p14d) ____________ +2.5 _ +0.3 _ --0.3 ___+1.8 _ +7.5 _ +3.8 ___ --1.5 _ --2.7 _ --1.6 _15th _____________ (p21d) ___________ +3.5 _ +2.0 _ +1.8 ___ +0.5 _ +5.0 _ +2.7 ___ --0.5 _ +0.2 _ --2.0 _22nd _____________ (p28d) ___________+3.2 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 ___ +0.2 _ +4.3 _ +1.8 ___ --2.0 _ +0.8 _ --0.8 _ 8th _____________ (p24d) ____________ +1.5 __ 0.0 _ --0.5 ___ +1.0 _ +4.5 _+2.0 ___ +0.5 _ --1.0 _ --1.5 _22nd ____________ (p31d) ____________+2.0 _ +0.5 __ 0.0 ___ --1.0 _ +3.0 _ +1.0 ___ --1.5 _ +1.0 _ --0.5 _29th _____________ (p31d) ___________ +4.5 _ +3.0 _ +3.0 ___ --1.0 _ +5.5 _ +1.0 ___ --7.0 _ --1.0 _ --2.0 _ 1 Nov ___ final anomalies ___________ +4.6 _ +3.0_ +3.4 ___ --1.6 _ +5.1 _ +0.3___ -7.2 _ --0.9 _ --2.0 The results of the Seasonal Max contest have bee posted in the September thread. 8th _ After a very warm start in the eastern and central regions, the coming week looks more variable so the large positive anomalies will be reduced or largely voided. The west has been running rather cool and this trend appears likely to continue for the coming week. The outlook period from GFS guidance 15th to 24th appears near normal in the east, perhaps a little below normal in central regions, with a warming trend indicated for PHX and DEN, not so much for SEA however. Projections are based on rather conservative estimates a little below average in the east to perhaps 2-3 above in the west. 15th _ Forecast verification was relatively poor, the amount of cold air arriving in central regions was well predicted but it tended to modify faster than expected when it reached the east coast. The average error was therefore 1.9 F deg (generally too cold by that amount). This coming week appears rather close to average in many areas but a bit warmer than average due to a very warm start for DEN, and later warmth in PHX. The extension of the forecast from day 8 to 16 (GFS) proceeds on the assumption of -3 anomalies in the eastern and central regions, including DEN, and slightly above normal in PHX and SEA. These may be rather conservative numbers given the outflow of very cold air from the arctic into the Great Lakes region during the period. Based on -6 anomalies the eastern stations could end up below normal despite current healthy positives. ATL and IAH will be cut back into our forecast range and ORD could fall lower than shown here as well. Our lowest ORD forecast is -1.1. The current scoring estimate for consensus from the provisionals posted above would be 762/900 so there could be some high scoring this month. Will post provisional scoring after 21st update and better handle on end of month changes. 22nd _ This past week the forecasts recovered to a more normal outcome with the average error only 0.5 deg, and DEN accounted for about half of that. This coming week looks rather average in the east and a bit warmer than normal in the west. The last three days of the month are looking very cold in the eastern and central regions and mild out west. Only the DCA provisional has been changed for the preliminary scoring posted a few days ago. It will evidently fall a bit less than anticipated but all these late month decreases are of course subject to the usual GFS caveat about overdoing cold outbreaks that far in advance. 29th _ The past week's forecasts were somewhat off due to the larger ridge-trough signature that developed towards the end of the week. The average error was just over 1.0 deg. However, the projections based on the 8-10d GFS last week have proven to be way out, as the cold air is trapped in central regions and not making a move east until near end of the month. This has resulted in a considerable increase in provisionals for the four stations in the eastern time zone, little change needed for ORD and IAH, but severe cold has set in out west and looks locked in for a few more days, so all three western locations have seen a drop (DEN has snow cover too so the cold is biting with -30 anomalies yesterday and expected the next two days). The chill will extend to PHX and SEA (currently 15 F outside my house in south-central BC). Provisional scoring will be fixed and then some annual scoring updates can be posted later today (may not get to that until evening). Nov 1st _ All final anomalies have now been posted. Scoring will be adjusted until it's finalized by 16z. Check back after that on Friday Nov 1st to see the final results -- you will see table headers change wording to final (from provisional) scoring when all is completed. Looks like the scoring race has tightened up with leader RodneyS losing some ground to DonS and wxdude64. Could be an epic finish this year. A few others are not quite out of the hunt yet, all depends on how November turns out as I see there's a good spread of predictions there.

I think that if there are some potent cold shots early in the season (Oct-Nov) it may signal a variable winter to follow, as is often the case, with roughly equal mild or cold spells in the main winter months. I've said elsewhere that the most likely storm track this winter would be something like OK-TN-MD/sPA-seMA and this would imply a variety of storm types for the Mid Atlantic region. The odds would favour one or perhaps two significant winter storms for your region but the core of above normal snowfalls would be north of that storm track, for the northeast, inland PA, n NJ, most of NY and New England. This is of course just amplifying the normal regional outcome, but within that framework, at least I;m not seeing much chance of a blowtorch or dry winter.

Thanks for running this. The season did not quite meet my expectations for severity of heat although there was certainly no lack of heat generally speaking it was one of the hotter summers but as some were able to figure out in advance, the relatively moist soil conditions probably reduced the potential for 100+ days.

Near average overall, some portions quite mild, others rather cold, with reasonable chances for at least one big winter storm. I ran my research model and came up with rather indecisive index values that were generally near long-term averages for the eastern U.S. in general. Still, as with Jan 2016, it just takes that one time for everything to align and you get the memorable storm despite lack of a memorable winter overall. Could be something along those lines. West could have a colder than normal winter which is one reason why reluctant to say cold in east, despite plenty of high latitude blocking and potent arctic air masses likely. Typical storm track may be fairly close to region keeping conditions mixed (OK-TN-MD/sPA-seMA). As a result, may be a good snowfall winter at WV ski areas even if rather average for snow in the coastal plain.

Table of forecasts for October 2019 FORECASTER ___________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA wxdude64 ______________________________ +2.5 _ +1.7 _ +0.7 ___ +0.3 _ +2.4 _ +1.4 ___ +0.5 _ +0.3 _ --1.7 hudsonvalley21 _________________________ +2.4 _ +2.6 _ +2.1 ___ +0.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.2 ___ +1.6 _ +1.1 _ +1.0 DonSutherland.1 ________________________ +2.4 _ +2.2 _ +1.4 ___ +0.5 _ +3.0 _ +1.3 ___ +0.4 _ +0.7 _ --1.0 RodneyS ________________________________ +2.3 _ +1.2 _ +0.3 ___ +2.3 _ +2.6 _ +2.9 ___ +0.7 _ +0.6 _ --0.1 Orangeburgwx __________________________ +2.1 _ +2.5 _ +2.3 ___ --1.1 _ +3.0 _ --0.7 ___ --2.6 _ --0.9 _ --3.2 ___ Consensus __________________________ +1.9 _ +1.4 _ +0.8 ____ +0.5 _ +2.5 _ +1.2 ____ +0.5 _ +0.7 _ --1.2 wxallannj _______________________________ +1.7 _ +1.2 _ +0.9 ___ +0.7 _ +2.5 _ +1.2 ___ +0.7 _ +0.9 _ --1.4 BKViking _______ (-1%) ___________________+1.4 _ +1.5 _ +1.0 ___ +0.5 _ +2.1 _ +1.0 ___ +0.5 _ +0.3 _ --1.7 Roger Smith _____________________________+1.2 _ +0.7 _ +0.2 ___ --0.4 _ --0.5 _ --1.5 ___ --2.0 _ --1.0 _ --1.5 Tom ____________________________________ +1.1 _ +0.5 _ +0.1 ___ --0.2 _ +0.9 _ +0.6 ___ --0.6 _ +1.2 _ --0.1 Scotty Lightning _________________________ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 ___ +0.5 _ +1.0 _ +1.5 ___ +1.5 _ +1.5 __ 0.0 ___ Normal _______________________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ==================================================================================== Welcome back Orangeburgwx. Consensus for 10 forecasts is mean of 5th and 6th ranked. Color codes show warmest and coldest forecasts, note that Normal is colder than all forecasts for DCA, NYC and BOS.

Scoring has been completely updated now. FYI, BKV would have one point less than second place DonS without any late penalties (175 points in total). Tom is down 31 on one set of late penalties, but would remain a bit behind Scotty L. Wxdude64 has only lost nine points, but that would move him ahead of me into third (fourth counting BKV who has one more point than wxdude64 when late penalties are added). As I mentioned in a previous post, I don't really think BKV has lost quite that much ground as the later forecasts may have gained insight (which is why we have late penalties more than as a punitive measure). In the two months where BKV took significant numbers of points, he did manage to finish middle of the pack and had some high scores (best forecasts) at least on raw scores. If you assume that half the lost points would have remained lost with less insight, then adding 80 would get BKV closer to the chase pack but no further ahead (his total is now 128 behind hudsonvalley21). The chase pack has five within about 50 points, but RodneyS retains a lead of 237 over DonSutherland1. I worked out that over three months remaining in this year's contest, you can gain 216 points by being 0.4 F closer on each location.

+1.2 _ +0.7 _ +0.2 __ --0.4 _ --0.5 _ --1.5 __ --2.0 _ --1.0 _ --1.5

It appears that September will finish 7/3/2 (not in the contest rules but Dorian's extension into the month gave 8/4/3 as the total activity for the month -- this won't be scored alternatively since Dorian had achieved all its stages in August). Nobody in the contest (or the normals and outside entrants) had seven named storms, the maximum forecast was 6 from myself and also snowlover2, and contest normal. This meant that the top score was 14/16 for September. Several however got both the number of hurricanes and major hurricanes correct. Have added the September scores (out of a possible 16 points) to the already tabulated June to August scoring. The season total is now 12/5/3. The scoring is very close and depending on the accuracy of your Oct (and N-D) forecasts (10 plus 2 points to come), blended with your seasonal score out of 50, almost anyone could still win the contest. Scoring for June to September FORECASTER _________ Jun __ Jul __ Aug __ Sep ____ TOTAL (max 38) Ineedsnow ____________ 2.5 __ 5.5 __ 12.0 __ 13.0 ____ 33.0 __ Contest normal _____ 3.5 __ 5.5 __ 10.0 __ 13.0 ____ 32.0 __ CSU, consensus _____3.5 __ 5.5 __ 11.0 __ 12.0 ____ 32.0 hlcater ________________3.5 __ 6.0 __ 10.0 __ 12.0 ____ 31.5 cyclonic fury __________ 4.0 __ 5.5 __ 10.0 __ 12.0 ____ 31.5 snowlover2 ____________3.5 __ 4.0 __ 11.0 __ 13.0 ____ 31.5 stormlover74 __________4.0 __ 5.0 __ 10.0 __ 12.0 ____ 31.0 North Arlington 101 ____3.5 __ 4.5 __ 11.0 __ 12.0 ____ 31.0 Roger Smith ___________ 3.0 __ 6.0 ___ 8.0 __ 14.0 ____ 31.0 __ NHC (high end) _____ 3.5 __ 5.5 __ 10.0 __ 12.0 ____ 31.0 yoda __________________ 3.5 __ 6.0 __ 10.0 __ 10.0 ____ 29.5 NCforecaster89 _______ 3.5 __ 5.5 __ 11.0 ___ 9.0 ____ 29.0 RJay __________________ 3.5 __ 5.5 ___ 8.0 __ 12.0 ____ 29.0 __ NHC (median) ______ 3.5 __ 5.5 __ 11.0 ___ 9.0 ____ 29.0 Julian Colton __________ 4.0 __ 5.5 ___ 9.0 __ 10.0 ____ 28.5 A few Univ b n _________ 3.5 __ 5.5 ___ 9.0 __ 10.0 ____ 28.0 yotaman ______________ 3.5 __ 5.5 __ 11.0 ___ 4.0 ____ 24.0 Stebo _________________ 3.5 __ 4.0 __ 11.0 ___ 2.0 ____ 20.5 ____________________________________________________________ This is what your seasonal forecast will score if your Oct and N-D forecasts added to the current total add 12 points to your monthly totals. That may not represent the best possible outcome from where you are now. For example, in my case, I would get a higher total if my October forecast busted low on hurricanes, although the net gain is small. In most cases, you will score less than shown here eventually. FORECASTER ________ June-Sept points ______ Seasonal fcst ___ Seasonal count (12 5 3 + your Oct Nov-Dec) _________________________________________________________________________________ Score __ +12 for Oct, N-D __ Total Ineedsnow _____________ 33.0 ___________________ 17 7 3 ___________ 16 6 3 _________ 48 _____ 12 ______________ 93.0 hlcater _________________ 31.5 ___________________ 15 7 2 ___________ 16 6 4 _________ 45 _____ 12 ______________ 88.5 Cyclonic Fury ___________ 31.5 ___________________ 14 6 2 ___________ 15 6 3 _________ 48 _____ 12 ______________ 91.5 snowlover2 _____________ 31.5 ___________________ 16 7 3 ___________ 14 6 4 _________ 45 _____ 12 ______________ 88.5 stormlover74 ___________ 31.0 ___________________ 15 5 1 ___________ 16 5 3 _________ 46 _____ 12 ______________ 89.0 North Arlington 101 _____ 31.0 ___________________ 16 7 3 ___________ 15 6 4 _________ 47 _____ 12 ______________ 90.0 Roger Smith ____________ 31.0 ___________________ 18 12 4 __________ 17 8 4 _________ 39 _____ 12 ______________ 82.0 yoda ____________________29.5 ___________________ 13 7 2 ____________15 6 3 _________ 45 _____ 12 ______________ 86.5 NCForecaster89 ________ 29.0 ____________________15 7 3 ____________16 6 4 _________ 47 _____ 12 ______________88.0 RJay ___________________ 29.0 ____________________ 16 9 4 ___________ 15 6 4 _________ 43 _____ 12 ______________ 84.0 Julian Colton ___________ 28.5 ____________________ 15 9 4 ___________ 18 8 5 _________ 42 _____ 12 ______________ 82.5 A few Univ b n __________ 28.0 ____________________ 14 9 3 ___________ 15 7 3 _________ 46 _____ 12 ______________ 86.0 yotaman _______________ 24.0 ____________________ 13 5 2 ___________ 15 6 4 _________ 43 _____ 12 ______________ 79.0 Stebo __________________ 20.5 ____________________ 14 6 3 ___________ 15 6 4 _________ 48 _____ 12 ______________ 80.5 _________________________________________________________________

All four very early 10/17 in massive wintry outbreak from Midwest.

<<<<< ===== ----- ----- ----- Annual Contest Scoring Jan-Sep 2019 ----- ----- ----- ===== >>>>>   A new look for the annual table this year, will continue with the all nine format of monthly scoring. Best score tallies will be handled in a separate table. From now to end of 2019, best scores will be tabulated for the eleven regular participants and this will continue with any new or temporary additions getting best scores in addition to those. Highest cumulative scores are shown in red in this table (for nine locations) or bold for subtotals.  FORECASTER ___________DCA_NYC_BOS __east__ ORD_ATL_IAH__cent __ c/e ___ DEN_PHX_SEA __west___all 9 TOTAL  RodneyS ________________555 _696 _629__1880 __597 _541 _730__1868__3748 __ 617 _618 _596 __ 1831___ 5579 ___ Consensus __________627_ 750 _634 __2011__562 _532 _676 __1770 __3781 __ 505 _608 _566 __1679 ____5460  DonSutherland.1 _________551 _726 _547 __1824 __539 _532 _692 __1763 __ 3587 __ 505 _644_ 606__1755____ 5342 Roger Smith _____________ 660 _668 _634 __1962 __502 _515 _636 __1653 __3615 __ 624 _550 _548 __1722____5337 wxdude64 _______________617 _722 _589 __1928 __585 _486 _651 __1722 __ 3650 __ 525 _594 _562 __1681____5331 wxallannj ________________613 _672 _662__1947 __482 _594 _652 __1728 __ 3675 __ 457 _614 _558 __1629____5304 hudsonvalley21 __________576 _762 _678__2016 __519 _574 _672 __1765 __3781 __ 359 _612 _542 __1513____5294 BKViking ________________ 646 _720 _631 __1997 __525 _474 _620 __1619 __3616 __ 445 _554 _551 __1550 ____5166 Scotty Lightning__________557 _692 _613 __1862 __524 _573 _642 __1739 __3601 __ 373 _564 _464 __1401 ____5002 Tom _____________________487 _665 _527 __1679 __553 _437 _652 __1642 __3321 __ 411 _598 _545 __1554 ____4875  ___ Normal ______________ 402 _692 _528 __1622 __532 _360 _620 __1512 __3134 __ 341 _601 _411__1353 ____4487 Stebo (4/9) ______________ 283 _327 _310 __ 920 __242 _219 _275 __ 736 __ 1656 __ 227 _217 _125 ___ 569 ___ 2225  RJay (4/9) _______________ 162 _246 _216 __ 624 __256 _185 _288 __ 729 __ 1353 __ 263 _279 _188 ___ 730 ___ 2083 tplbge (1/9) ______________ 90 __ 94 __ 78 __ 262 __ 46 __ 80 _100 __ 226 ___ 492 ___72 __ 88 __32 __ 192 ____ 684  smerby (1/9) ______________94 __ 78 __ 48 __ 220 __ 22 __ 90 _100 __ 212 ___432 ___50 __ 82 __ 96 __ 228 ____ 660 Jakkelwx (1/9) _____________92 __ 68 __ 30 __ 190 __ 50 __ 82 __ 68 __ 200 ___390___ 80 __ 90 __ 88 __ 258 ____ 648  _______________________________________________________________________  Best scores in each category _ (nine locations, three regional subtotals, and central-eastern or "original six" subtotal (c/e) as well as all nine).  _ These are best scores in each monthly contest, best total scores are highlighted in the table above in red. Order for best scores will be based on rank in table above. _ July best scores with * are regular forecaster high scores, wxdude64 for IAH (Smerby, con as shown for IAH), and BKV, wxallannj for PHX (jakkelwx higher) also ___ Tom for west total (jakkelwx higher).  FORECASTER _________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA__west___all nine  RodneyS _______________ 1 ___1 ___1 ____ 3 ____ 3 ___1 ___2 ____ 3 ____ 2 ____ 3 ___2 ___1 ___ 2 ____ 2 _ APR,MAY  ___Consensus__________1 ___0 ___1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___0 ___1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0 DonSutherland.1 ________0 ___1 ___1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___0 ___1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___1 ___3 ___ 1 ____ 0 Roger Smith ____________ 5 ___1 ___2 ____ 4 ____ 3 ___3 ___1 ____ 2 ____ 2 ____ 3 ___2 ___1 ___ 2 ____ 2 __ JUL, SEP wxdude64 ______________ 1 ___0 ___0 ____ 2 ____ 1 ___0 ___1*____2 ____ 1 ____ 2 ___1 ___2 ___ 1 ____ 2 __ MAR, JUN wxallannj _______________ 1 ___2 ___1 ____ 1____ 0 ___3 ___1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___1*___1 ___ 0 ____ 0 hudsonvalley21 _________ 1 ___3 ___1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___1 ___0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___0 ___0 ___ 1 ____ 1 __ JAN BKViking ________________0 ___0 ___0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___0 ___0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___1*___0 ___0 ____ 0 Scotty Lighning _________ 1 ___1 ___2 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___0 ___2 ____ 1 ____ 2 ____ 1 ___1 ___1 ___ 0 ____ 0 __ AUG Tom ____________________ 0 ___2 ___0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___0 ___1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___1 ___1 ___ 2* ___ 0 ___ Normal _____________ 1 ___3 ___1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___0 ___1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0  Stebo __________________1 ___0 ___1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___0 ___0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ___ FEB  RJay ___________________0 ___0 ___1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___0 ___0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___1 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0 smerby _________________0 ___1 ___0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___0 ___1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0  jakkelwx _______________ 0 ___0 ___0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___0 ___0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___1 ___0 ___ 1 ____ 0  __________________________________________________________________________________  Extreme forecasts    STANDINGS to date in 2019  Roger Smith _________20-6  RodneyS ____________11-4 DonSutherland1 ______ 7-0 wxallannj ____________ 7-2 Scotty Lightning ______ 6-1 Normal ______________ 5-1 hudsonvalley21 _______4-0 Tom __________________3-1 wxdude64 ___________ 3-0 Stebo ________________3-1 BKViking ____________ 2-0*^ RJay ________________ 1-0  tplbge _______________1-0  Jakkelwx ____________1-0  *retained if Jakkelwx plays fewer than three.  ^ no decision for BOS, SEA in Aug (highest raw score reduced by late penalty) ^ also no decision for PHX (Sep) same reason.  ______________________________________________________________________________

Predict the temperature anomalies (F deg) relative to 1981-2010 averages, for DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

Final scoring for September, 2019 Scoring is based on provisional anomalies in previous post. * one point late deduction included ^ scores based on max-60 rule _ __ the progression used was 60, 53, 46, 39, 32, 25, 18, 11, 4 setting normal between levels or at zero if lower than all. __ this was modified to a more equitable progression for ORD and ATL where most of the raw scores were lower than 30. __ the progression used for those two locations was 60, 55, 50 etc. FORECASTER _____________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH___cent__ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA_west __ TOTAL Roger Smith _______________ 60^_ 92 _ 96 __ 248 __ 60^_ 55^_ 60 __175 __423__ 53^_ 66 _ 58 __ 177 ____ 600 RodneyS __________________ 18^_ 58 _ 44 __ 120 __ 55^_ 25^_ 76__ 156 __ 276 __ 60^_ 90 _ 88 __ 238 ____ 514 wxallannj __________________25^_ 74 _ 62 __ 161 __ 40^_ 60^_ 48 __ 148 __ 309 __ 25^_ 86 _ 82 __ 191 ____ 502 hudsonvalley21 ____________39^_ 86 _ 74 __ 199 __35^_ 40^_ 44 __ 119 __ 318 __ 04^_ 90 _ 88 __ 182 ____ 500  ___ Consensus ____________32^_ 74 _ 58 __ 164 __ 40^_ 40^_ 46 __ 126 __ 290 __ 32^_ 86 _ 88 __ 206 ____ 496 BKViking __________________53^_ 82 _ 58 __ 193 __ 50^_ 30^_ 40 __ 120 __ 313 __ 32^_ 96 _ 94 __ 222 _ 535 _____________ (-8%) ________ 49^_ 75 _ 53 __ 177 __ 46^_ 28^_ 37 __ 111 __ 288 __ 29^_ 88 _ 86 __ 203 ____ 491 wxdude64 ____ (-1%) _______52^*_ 81*_ 42__ 175 __ 20 _ 40^_ 38 __ 098 __ 273 __ 39^_ 85*_ 85*__209 ____ 482 Scotty Lightning ____________32^_ 72 _ 58 __ 162 __ 50^_ 55^_ 40 __ 145 __ 307 __ 11^_ 94 _ 60 __ 165 ____ 472 Tom _______________________04^_ 56 _ 44 __ 104 __ 25^_ 55^_ 50 __ 130 __ 234 __ 46^_ 84 _ 98 __ 228 ____ 462 DonSutherland1 ____________18^_ 64 _ 46 __ 128 __ 35^_ 40^_ 46 __ 121 __ 249 __ 18^_ 84 _ 88 __ 190 ____ 439 ___ Normal _________________ 00 _ 52 _ 38 __ 090 __ 30^_ 00 _ 20 __ 050 __ 140 __ 00 _ 86 _ 70 __ 156 _____ 296 ================================================================ Extreme forecasts DCA __ +5.5 is warmer than all forecasts, Roger Smith (+2.4) has a win. NYC __ +2.4 is warmer than all forecasts, Roger Smith (+2.0) has a win. BOS __ +3.1 is closest to the warmest forecast (Roger Smith +3.3) for another win. ORD, ATL, IAH and DEN are all likely to finish well above all forecasts. Roger Smith has a win for ORD, wxallannj for ATL and RodneyS has two for IAH, DEN. PHX __ +0.7 is lower than all forecasts. Due to late penalty, BKViking (+0.9) has a "no decision" while Scotty Lightning (+1.0) has high score and the win. SEA __ As the outcome is +1.5, Tom has second coldest forecast and high score for a win. Scotty L has a loss. Normal also gets a win.

Reports on anomalies and forecasts ... ____________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA _8th ________ (7d) ___________ +2.7 _--1.6 _--0.4 __--1.1 _+6.4 _+4.6 ___ +5.6 _+6.5 _+4.6 _8th _______(p14d) ___________ +1.5 _--0.8 __0.0 __+0.7 _+6.0 _+4.5 ___ +3.5 _+3.5 _+2.8 _8th _______(p24d) ___________ +2.0 __0.0 _+1.0 __+1.5 _+4.0 _+3.0 ___ +3.0 _+2.5 _+1.0 16th _______ (15d) ____________+4.2 __0.0 _+1.0*_ +2.1 _+8.2 _+4.5 ___ +6.0*_+3.9 _+3.1 16th ______ (p22d) ____________+3.0 __0.0 _+0.3 __+4.5 _+6.6 _+5.0 ___ +5.5 _+2.7 _+2.0 16th _______(p30d) ____________+3.0 _+1.0 _+1.5 __+3.5 _+5.0 _+5.0 ___ +5.0 _+3.0 _+2.5 23rd ______ (22d) _____________ +4.2 _+0.6 _+1.8*__+4.4 _+7.5 _+3.7 ___ +5.9 _+2.5 _+2.4 23rd ______ (p30d) ____________ +4.0 _+1.5 _+2.0 __+4.0 _+8.0 _+4.0 ___ +6.0 _+1.5 _+1.5 ___ final anomalies ____________+5.5 _+2.4 _+3.1 __+4.8 _+8.9 _+4.0 ___ +5.9 _+0.7 _+1.5 16th _ Went a day late as NWS had not updated all CF6 on 15th, BOS and DEN still not updated so used daily climate reports to estimate. The forecasts to 14th were not out as much as 15th data might imply (DCA to BOS, ORD, DEN) because 15th was very warm, still, they were low by about a degree; the rest were fairly accurate. ... Have now projected to 22nd and end of month, the GFS continues quite warm in all regions 23rd to 30th. Month will likely end quite a bit warmer than forecast range for central and DEN. Seasonal max had no new developments despite 98F at DCA on 12th, the table back in August thread is likely final now, will confirm around 25th. 23rd _ Some of the stations have not updated since the 8th so I had to estimate their anomalies so far. Since the seven-day NWS forecast takes us to the 29th, I have added day 8 from the GFS to the one forecast added today although most of the NWS forecasts I used had updated through Monday 30th (I am a bit late getting to this today). This will make it possible to post provisional scoring by tomorrow. 1st Oct _ Final anomalies are now posted, and scoring will be adjusted very soon as most of the estimates proved to be correct..

First reports on anomalies and forecasts ... ____________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA _8th ________ (7d) ___________ +2.7 _--1.6 _--0.4 __--1.1 _+6.4 _+4.6 ___ +5.6 _+6.5 _+4.6 _8th _______(p14d) ___________ +1.5 _--0.8 __0.0 __+0.7 _+6.0 _+4.5 ___ +3.5 _+3.5 _+2.8 _8th _______(p24d) ___________ +2.0 __0.0 _+1.0 __+1.5 _+4.0 _+3.0 ___ +3.0 _+2.5 _+1.0

Table of entries for September 2019 FORECASTER _______________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Roger Smith _______________ +2.4 _+2.0 _+3.3 __ +0.8 _+1.5 _+2.0 ___ +2.2 _+2.4 _+3.6 BKViking _____ (-8%)________+1.8 _+1.5 _+1.0 __ +0.5 _+1.2 _+1.0 ___ +1.0 _+0.9 _+1.8 wxdude64 ____ (-1%) _______+1.8 _+1.1 _+0.2 __ --0.8 _+1.4 _+0.9 ___ +1.1 _+1.4 _+2.2 hudsonvalley21 _____________+1.6 _+1.7 _+2.2 __ +0.2 _+1.4 _+1.2 ___ +0.4 _+1.2 _+2.1 Scotty Lightning ____________ +1.5 _+1.0 _+1.0 __ +0.5 _+1.5 _+1.0 ___ +0.5 _+1.0 _--0.5 ___ Consensus _____________+1.5 _+1.1 _+1.0 __ +0.4 _+1.4 _+1.3 ___ +1.0 _+1.4 _+2.1 wxallannj __________________+1.2 _+1.1 _+1.2 __ +0.4 _+2.1 _+1.4 ___ +0.9 _+1.4 _+2.4 DonSutherland1 ____________ +0.5 _+0.6 _+0.4 __ +0.2 _+1.4 _+1.3 ___ +0.6 _+1.5 _+2.1 RodneyS __________________ +0.5 _+0.3 _+0.3 __ +0.6 _+0.2 _+2.7 ___ +2.6 _+1.2 _+2.1 Tom ______________________+0.3 _+0.2 _+0.3 __ --0.3 _+1.5 _+1.5 ___ +1.2 _+1.5 _+1.6 ___ Normal _________________ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ____ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 _____ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0

August finished at 3/1/1. The August scores (max is 12.0) combined with two earlier scores are shown here: FORECASTER _________ June __ July __ August ___ TOTAL (max 22) Ineedsnow ____________ 2.5 __ 5.5 ___ 12.0 _____ 20.0 NCforecaster89 _________3.5 __ 5.5 ___ 11.0 _____ 20.0 yotaman ______________ 3.5 __ 5.5 ___ 11.0 _____ 20.0 __ NHC, CSU, consensus _ 3.5 __ 5.5 ___ 11.0 _____ 20.0 yoda _________________ 3.5 __ 6.0 ___ 10.0 _____ 19.5 hlcater ________________3.5 __ 6.0 ___ 10.0 _____ 19.5 cyclonic fury ___________ 4.0 __ 5.5 ___ 10.0 _____ 19.5 stormlover74 ___________4.0 __ 5.0 ___ 10.0 _____ 19.0 North Arlington 101 _____ 3.5 __ 4.5 ___ 11.0 _____ 19.0 __ Contest normal ______ 3.5 __ 5.5 ___ 10.0 _____ 19.0 Julian Colton ___________ 4.0 __ 5.5 ____ 9.0 _____ 18.5 snowlover2 ____________ 3.5 __ 4.0 ___ 11.0 _____ 18.5 Stebo _________________ 3.5 __ 4.0 ___ 11.0 _____ 18.5 A few Univ b n __________3.5 __ 5.5 ____ 9.0 _____ 18.0 Roger Smith ___________ 3.0 __ 6.0 ____ 8.0 _____ 17.0 RJay __________________3.5 __ 5.5 ____ 8.0 _____ 17.0 ____________________________________________________________ Ineedsnow had the only perfect forecast for August but most of the others were fairly close and lost only one or two of the possible scoring points. The seasonal contest is still highly dependent on what happens this month and to some extent in October.

+2.4 _ +2.0 _ +3.3 ___ +0.8 _ +1.5 _ +2.0 ___ +2.2 _ +2.4 _ +3.6

Make a note or enter early as the Labor Day weekend will be just getting underway ... it's the usual forecast challenge ... anomalies (vs 1981-2010 normals) for DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

July finished 1/1/0 so the scores for June and July look like this ... FORECASTER _____June_ July __ TOTAL Yoda ____________ 3.5 _ 6.0 ___ 9.5 hlcater ___________3.5 _ 6.0 ___ 9.5 cyclonic fury ______ 4.0 _ 5.5 ___ 9.5 Julian Colton ______4.0 _ 5.5 ___ 9.5 stormlover74 ______4.0 _ 5.0 ___ 9.0 Roger Smith ______ 3.0 _ 6.0 ___ 9.0 RJay ____________ 3.5 _ 5.5 ___ 9.0 NCforecaster89 ____3.5 _ 5.5 ___ 9.0 AfewUniv b n _____ 3.5 _ 5.5 ___ 9.0 yotaman _________ 3.5 _ 5.5 ___ 9.0 Normal, NHC, CSU _ 3.5 _ 5.5 ___ 9.0 Consensus _______ 3.5 _ 5.5 ___ 9.0 ineedsnow ________2.5 _ 5.5 ___ 8.0 NorthArlington101 _ 3.5 _ 4.5 ___ 8.0 snowlover2 _______3.5 _ 4.0 ___ 7.5 Stebo ___________ 3.5 _ 4.0 ___ 7.5

98 at BWI yesterday.

Have the feeling that late July and August will be hotter than we've seen so far.

June had no activity so the scoring (out of four possible points) looks like this: 4 pts (0,0,0 forecasts) __ Julian Colton, Stormlover74, Cyclonic Fury 3.5 pts (1,0,0 forecasts) _ all others except below 3.0 pts (1,1,0 forecast) __ Roger Smith 2.5 pts (2,1,0 forecast) __ ineedsnow ================================= July may get some action apparently.

Table of entries for 2019 Atlantic Tropical-Season Forecast Contest This year, will be keeping all the non-contest-entrant data in a separate zone at the top of the table. For entrants, the forecasts are listed in descending order of total storms with total hurricanes the second point of breaking ties, and majors the third point. FORECASTER ___________ SEASONAL __ MAY ___ JUN___ JUL ___ AUG ___ SEP ___ OCT ___ NOV-DEC Contest Normal ___________16 8 3 _____ 1 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 4 2 1 __ 6 4 1 __ 3 2 1 __ 0 0 0 Contest consensus ________ 15 7 3 _____ 1 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 2 1 0 __ 3 2 1 __ 5 3 1 __ 2 1 1 __ 1 0 0 NHC (high end) ___________15 8 4 _____1 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 4 2 1 __ 5 4 2 __ 3 2 1 __ 0 0 0 NHC (midrange) __________ 12 6 3 _____1 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 3 2 1 __ 4 3 1 __ 2 1 1 __ 0 0 0 CSU (June fcst) ___________13 6 2 _____1 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 3 2 1 __ 5 3 1 __ 2 1 0 __ 0 0 0 _____________________________________________________________________________________ Roger Smith _____________18 12_4 ____ 1 0 0 __ 1 1 0 __ 1 1 0 __ 4 3 1 __ 6 4 2 __ 4 3 1 __ 1 0 0 ineedsnow _______________17 7 3 _____ 1 0 0 __ 2 1 0 __ 2 1 0 __ 3 1 1 __ 5 3 2 __ 4 1 0 __ 0 0 0 RJay ____________________16 9 4 _____ 1 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 2 1 0 __ 4 3 1 __ 5 4 2 __ 2 1 1 __ 1 0 0 snowlover2 ______________ 16 7 3 _____ 1 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 3 0 0 __ 3 2 1 __ 6 4 1 __ 2 1 1 __ 0 0 0 NorthArlington101 _________16 7 3 _____ 1 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 3 1 0 __ 3 2 1 __ 5 3 1 __ 2 1 1 __ 1 0 0 Julian Colton _____________ 15 9 4 _____ 1 0 0 __ 0 0 0 __ 2 1 0 __ 2 2 0 __ 4 3 2 __ 4 2 2 __ 2 1 0 NCforecaster89 ___________ 15 7 3 _____ 1 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 2 1 0 __ 3 2 1 __ 4 3 1 __ 3 1 1 __ 1 0 0 hlcater __________________15 7 2 _____ 1 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 1 1 0 __ 3 2 0 __ 5 3 1 __ 3 1 1 __ 1 0 0 Stormlover74 ____________ 15 5 1 _____ 1 0 0 __ 0 0 0 __ 2 0 0 __ 3 2 0 __ 5 3 1 __ 3 0 0 __ 1 0 0 AfewUniv b n _____________14 9 3 _____ 1 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 2 1 0 __ 3 3 1 __ 4 3 2 __ 2 2 0 __ 1 0 0 Stebo ___________________14 6 3 _____ 1 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 3 2 0 __ 3 2 1 __ 3 1 1 __ 2 1 1 __ 1 0 0 CyclonicFury _____________ 14 6 2 _____ 1 0 0 __ 0 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 4 2 1 __ 5 3 1 __ 2 1 0 __ 1 0 0 yoda ____________________13 7 2 _____ 1 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 1 1 0 __ 3 2 0 __ 4 3 2 __ 3 1 0 __ 0 0 0 yotaman ________________ 13 5 2 _____ 1 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 2 1 0 __ 3 1 0 __ 3 2 1 __ 2 1 1 __ 1 0 0 __________________________________________________________________________________ Apart from my somewhat higher forecast, the rest of our 14 entrants have chosen values fairly close to the long-term average with a bit of a spread, and so the contest is likely to be closely fought (unless we get a very active season). Our consensus is very close to the top of the NHC range.

Okay so that's 13 more named storms, a total of 14 counting the one already recorded in May ... care to mention how many will be hurricanes and of those, major hurricanes? I will enter your numbers scaled to the contest normal in the absence of any further numbers. Thanks. And in general, we have reached the deadline now, so a table of entries will be posted soon.

Reasonably good turnout for a first time contest, I for one would not mind seeing an extension through the weekend with a final push for more entries. There's no real "tells" on tonight's GFS that's for sure. But then again, June 1936 was not a very hot month. Little known fact, there were actually some record lows a few days before the big east coast July 1936 heat wave. I think you'll find some for BWI daily max earlier in the month.