Roger Smith

About 100" of snow was added to the contest grid by the recent storm. A fourth location, ORD, has now passed at least one forecaster (MLI, PIA and STL have passed quite a few, in fact MLI has passed all but cyclone77 who has 0.6" left before he gets passed as well (but will have best result for MLI with any new snow). Cyclone77 is the only forecaster left without any red numbers, or stations with more snow than forecast. The order of total departures is still fairly similar to the reverse order of the total snowfall forecasts, only Stebo and jackstraw have moved even one position down in relative terms by having larger total departures than one or more forecasters with higher seasonal totals. Most of us have plenty left to use up at lake effect locations GRR, CLE and YXU. The lake effect portion of the total snowfall at those places is fairly small so far, so they are not running much ahead of the pack. We are probably right around where a normal season would be, 55% of total snowfall by the end of January seems about average. When we reach March 15th or so, and the season is approaching a conclusion, I will reorder the table above but for now it's almost in order from bottom to top as far as the contest goes.

Some links that may assist you: https://weather.gc.ca/data/analysis/352_100.gif (Canadian snow depths, updated daily) ---------------------------------- http://www.newx-forecasts.com/#RULES (contest web site, many snow map links, be sure to look on both the linked page and the "weblog" page as shown ------------------------------------ Also, you can find info on Midwest snowfalls in the Great Lakes / OH Valley subforum snowfall contest, including frequent updates on snowfall to date as percentage of normal

The cold air is on the move south, Ennadai Lake which is in the territories north of the SK-MB border about 62 deg N, -38 with 30 mph north winds. This is roughly the slug of cold air coming down although I think the eventual end product is a blend of that air mass and some side drainage from the lobe in northern Ontario that has been sitting between -25 daytime and -50 nights recently. Bare ground may get a slight coverage as troughs move down behind the cold front, the bare ground may temporarily cause enhanced thermal gradients that will focus the light snowfalls. So although an inch of snow isn't ideal for radiational cooling, better than low albedo for daytime temperatures mainly. My guess is that a -40 reading is possible over some of the fresh snow in Wisconsin but I don't know which stations have the better cold air drainage setups, would say around AUW to RHI somewhere.

Temp/dp of -53/-62 F at Geraldton ON north of Lake Superior this morning (13z obs).

I do think temperatures will rise to around 32 F along and south of the track but mostly snow, weakly defined warm sector will be mostly just absence of frigid arctic air briefly, and so temps will rise very gradually all night, peak around 32-34 in those areas, and fall off sharply to 10 F within 2 hours of fropa. That looks to be around noon at IL-IN border. At RFD and ORD I would not be surprised if temps bust well on low side of whatever is the official forecast just because of the gradient. Will say 18-24 F range, and s WI staying mostly single digits except for a bit of warmth carried inland with lake enhancement (15 F).

That squall line type cold front will be headed for places like PIA and CMI into central IN ... have seen many storms like this because it was very common in the 1970s when I was actually working in a forecast office, and drawing maps (and progs) -- this is why I felt strongly it would go south. They almost always bust south when they fall off the "chinook ledge" as I call it (around where it is now, too far from Rockies to sustain the chinook, warm sector turns to dust). When this gets past Iowa, it will just be all snow, any lingering rain will vanish.

NW wind gusting to 53 knots at Minot ND at23z, temp has now dropped 24 deg in half an hour there (37 to 13 F).

S+ reported at Fargo ND with southeast winds gusting to 30 mph. Temp 1 F. Minot is 40 deg F with a west wind, low center appears to be crossing border now near southeast corner of SK. Looks to be dropping south faster than gaining east, until passing Watertown SD, then curves past MLI towards a point 50 miles south of RFD then east-north-east to JXN. If it can maintain this very tight temperature gradient into the heavy snow production zone, a raging blizzard will develop in northeast IA, southern MN into n IL and most of WI. I do see a weakening trend overall past Lake Michigan but still some potent lake enhanced totals in parts of southern MI. This curved track exposes Chicago to NNE winds for a time which may up your totals. Thinking about 8" RFD, 10" ORD, 15" MSN to MKE with 20" local maxima, trending to 12" GRB. Cold fronts have been active through Alberta and SK with reports of wind gusts to 55 mph in Alberta last night. It may maintain some of those dynamics although wind gusts near Rockies can be downslope pass drainage effects in some cases, but I saw some strong gusts as far east as Swift Current SK last night too, that's well away from any topography. This would apply to regions south of main snowfall band and track of low, but even there I feel that 1-2" quite possible in bursts of heavy snow. Warm advection will be weak once the chinook signature is extinguished.

The yolk's on you then ... you'll miss the next 2-4" overperformer.

For Feb 2019, predict the temperature anomalies relative to 1981-2010 normal values for DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ... deadline is 06z Friday Feb 1st ... usual late penalties apply ... Good luck !

I would question the rainfall depiction on that HRRR even if the track verified, it would likely be mostly snow and just very small amounts of rain. But I also don't think the track will verify that far north.

Milder Pacific air is not making any sort of robust push away from the chinook zone, so the most logical track for this developing low (currently near BC-Yukon border at 1007 mb) would be across s.w. SK into w ND, n.e. SD, then something like Dubuque to Joliet to Jackson MI into sw ON. I think it's more likely to track south of Chicago than north anyway. Intense lake enhancement in E-SE winds for much of Wisconsin, perhaps a burst of NE winds before backing to NW. Would hold with earlier idea of 5-10" snow along and north of track, but 10-20" locally in WI and eastern lower MI from lake enhancement. Temp gradient will remain very tight as the warm advection will increase after the low passes ND, would guess 24 F for max at ORD and about 17 F for MKE (would be a lot lower but surface flow will pick up warmth from Lake Michigan). Temps will stay 10-15 or lower throughout snowfall away from warming off-lake, winds may gust over 45 mph in the E-SE flow, so very likely blizzard conditions in parts of southern and eastern WI, and perhaps around Alpena to Bay City MI also.

Whatever the track, this low will be interacting with two very cold air masses ahead and following it in. It may not have a very well-defined warm sector at all, and could become one of those circular blizzards of days past. There was a storm like this on Jan 30-31, 1971 if you want to see an analogue. Snowfalls of 4-8" along the track and 10-15" lake enhanced could be expected. Green Bay might get 15-30 inches of snow out of this as a lake effect dynamic persists ahead of the low and behind it. The u.p. of Michigan will have life-threatening blizzard conditions with -15 air temps and -40 wind chills with S+ from still-unfrozen Lake Superior (we'll see how long that lasts next week). Would say 6-9" most likely for Chicago, 9-15" Milwaukee, 5-10" range in s MI and sw ON to 20" locally in lake effect squalls. Was commenting in the temp thread that the following air mass is record cold already up in the central arctic, -56 F at Shepherd Bay, NU.

In the source region (for next week's mega cold) at present time, Shepherd Bay (Nunavut) reports -56 F (-48.6 C) which is close to its all-time record low. I notice on the latest guidance that the 474 dm thickness crosses into MN and WI and reaches Chicago before being squeezed out of the air mass. This may back off closer to the time, but even 486 dm thickness would be very unusual at that latitude. Shepherd Bay is near the base of the Boothia Peninsula on the arctic mainland around 70 deg N. It is not some frost hollow location like Mayo, Yukon.

Seriously, I hope the atmosphere takes advantage of all this mega-cold draining out of central Canada because I do feel like there is a flip to sustained warmth coming by mid to late February that will wipe out March entirely as a snow producer (my forecast being much above normal temps). This winter has some similarities to 1944-45, did you score that winter? All I know about it, the temp trend at Toronto went from bitter cold late January to normal Feb to warmest March and first half April on record (it did snow in late April though).

Well, Feb 1954 was warmest on record in southern Ontario, at least back when I was still living there, might not be any more I suppose. March was near normal and it turned cold for a time in early April. The spring of 1977 saw a rapid reversal of the severe cold of January around 10th of February and it stayed generally near-record warm most of the spring. A similar but subdued pattern repeated in 1987 with the warmth peaking in the summer. I don't remember much of winter 1995 as we were packing to move but I think it was variable more than any one trend. And I was out west by 2007, would have to look that one up. There have been some similar storm tracks to 1991-92 this past winter also (frequently Ohio valley to eastern Lake Ontario). That was not a particularly memorable winter where I was living, all elements fairly close to average IIRC. Where does 1929-30 fit into your thinking? There was a noteworthy warm spell in mid-February of 1930 in the eastern and central regions. I know it was relatively high solar but frankly I tend to discount solar during long active periods (as to being high or low), it's only when you get a prolonged downturn that you see real correlations with temperature anomaly.

Table of Departures This table is based on the earlier table of forecasts compared to the ongoing snowfall to date table above. Entries in this table in black are amounts left to use up. Entries in red are already accumulating errors as the station total has passed the forecast value. As of Feb 27th, the table of departures is placed in contest order. The table of forecasts is repeated below this table of departures for easier reference. The total contest snowfall has now passed the three lowest forecasts of total snowfall. Updated through May 9th. FORECASTER ________ APN_ORD_CLE_CMH_DTW_FWA_GRR_GRB_IND_ LSE__YXU_ SDF__MQT _MKE_MSP_MLI__PAH_PIA_STL_ YYZ __TOTAL_rank Roger Smith __________8.9_14.5_44.8__0.4_13.7__5.3 _ 8.7__4.0__7.6_ 9.3__53.0__0.7_27.0_10.6_11.1_21.8__5.9__6.4__ 9.7__0.1___263.5 __ 1 vpbob21 ____________ 23.0__5.4_14.3__7.3_11.9_ 8.5_15.4_27.0_12.0_25.5__36.1_13.4_ 11.5_11.4_24.2_15.7_ 10.8_ 0.1__2.4__3.1___278.8 __ 2 slowpoke ___________ 27.4__7.5_21.8 _1.6__6.7__5.3_13.3_25.0__5.6_22.3__32.0__0.8__39.5__9.1_30.1_20.8__ 5.9__7.4__2.2__7.1___291.4 __ 3 Mississauga Snow _____ 3.4_10.5_ 5.8__5.4_18.7__6.3_11.3_29.0__2.4_29.3__46.0_ 0.2__27.5_22.1_22.1_20.8__8.9_10.4__5.8__ 8.1___294.4 __ 4 cyclone77 ____________9.4__5.5_23.8__1.6__ 9.7 _1.3__8.3_27.0__4.6_22.3__44.0__2.2__52.5_13.1_30.1_14.8_ 4.9__5.4_ 0.2_14.1___294.8 __ 5 ___ Contest normal ___ 19.0_11.4_32.0__1.0_13.5_ 9.3__4.2_19.8__6.5_18.2__41.7__2.7__27.7__6.9_26.5 _27.3__3.1_11.5__5.8_12.6___300.7 _ (6) ___ Contest median ___22.4__7.5_30.9__0.1_13.7_ 8.5 __6.3_25.0__6.8_23.7__36.1__2.8__39.5_13.1_29.4_21.8__8.9__7.4__2.2__5.9___312.0*_ (6) DAFF _______________24.4_12.5_14.8__1.4_ 7.7__5.3__ 8.3_23.0 _0.6_19.3__31.0__0.8__55.5_15.1_29.1_22.8__7.9__7.4__7.2_18.1___312.2 __ 6 madwx ______________14.9__4.1_30.9_ 0.1_20.8_11.4__6.2_24.2__6.8_23.0__31.1__3.0__46.3_13.8_28.8_20.1__5.3_10.1__8.0__3.8___312.7 __ 7 Jackstraw ___________ 27.4_19.5_55.8__0.4__ 9.7_11.3__6.3_25.0_11.6_33.3__30.0__2.8__15.5_21.1_47.1_26.8_15.9_16.4__8.2__9.1___393.2 __ 8 Stebo ______________ 34.4_14.5_47.8__5.4_ 16.7_12.3__4.3_29.0__5.6_29.3__26.0__6.8__42.5_16.1_42.1_29.8_11.9_16.4__4.2__5.1___400.2 __ 9 dmc76 ______________22.4__3.7_47.2_11.5_27.1_23.1__0.7_ 18.4_ 9.4 _23.7__70.4__6.5__38.5__2.1_29.4_33.8_14.9_14.4__0.8_ 8.1__ 406.1 __10 DonSutherland.1 ______17.7__0.5_48.7_17.6_25.2_16.8__1.1_ 25.1_23.3_26.1__75.4_11.8__82.3__9.0_36.7_28.5_12.4__1.4__1.0__5.9 __470.5 __11 note: bold entries are now current location winners in the contest. All forecasts passed by actual at MQT, MLI, LSE, MSP, GRB and on April 14, APN, PIA and MKE. ... (at MQT and PIA vpbob21 had high forecast, at MLI slowpoke had high forecast, at MKE the winner is now dmc76, at APN high forecast and the win goes to Mississauga Snow, and at the other three GRB MSP and LSE, Roger Smith). As a result, those eight locations now have a confirmed winner. ORD also has a confirmed winner (DonS) although he has 0.5" more predicted than actual. YYZ has been passed by all but one now, dmc76 still has 8.1" but needs 4.0" more to take that one away from current low departure 0.1" (RS) STL has passed all but four forecasts. These locations have not yet passed any forecast (so minimum forecast could win) ... CLE, DTW, FWA, YXU, PAH. ... IND has passed one forecast so far. _______________________________________________________________________________ *contest median total is sum of twenty median forecasts, the median total is 984.0 ... ranks of contest normal and median do not change ranks of forecasters in contest, and they are independent of each other's rank.  Tiebreakers (same order as table of entries) -- winners in green when settled -- amounts shown here are forecasts not errors or departures dmc76 ______________ Dec ORD 10.2" __ Jan IND 11.0" ___ Feb DTW 12.0" Roger Smith __________Dec ORD 13.5" __ Jan IND 10.0" ___ Feb DTW 12.5" DonSutherland.1 ______ Dec ORD 11.7" __ Jan IND 13.7" ___ Feb DTW 14.2" vpbob21 _____________ Dec ORD 3.6" ___Jan IND 9.4" ____ Feb DTW 13.1" madwx ______________ Dec ORD 9.2" ___ Jan IND 8.4" ____Feb DTW 18.3" Mississauga Snow ______ Dec ORD 4.1" ___ Jan IND 11.0"___ Feb DTW 16.0" ___ closest Dec ORD cyclone77 ____________ Dec ORD 6.7" ___ Jan IND 9.6" ____ Feb DTW 13.4" Jackstraw ____________ Dec ORD 4.5" ___ Jan IND 12.0"___ Feb DTW 10.5" ___ closest Jan IND slowpoke _____________ Dec ORD 6.0" ___ Jan IND 7.0" ___ Feb DTW 8.0" ____ closest Feb DTW Stebo _______________ Dec ORD 6.7" ___ Jan IND 10.2" ___Feb DTW 15.2" DAFF________________ Dec ORD 10.7" ___Jan IND 13.8" ___Feb DTW 14.9" (mean of above entries) _________7.9" __________ 10.6" ___________ 13.5" actual snowfall _________________1.4" __________11.7" ____________ 7.3" ================================================================================= Table of forecasts (repeated from earlier post) FORECASTER _________ APN_ORD_CLE_CMH_DTW__FWA_GRR_GRB_IND_LSE__YXU_SDF__MQT_MKE_MSP_MLI__PAH_PIA__STL_YYZ __ TOTAL dmc76 _______________77.0_45.8_82.4_38.9_58.4_47.8_82.0_55.6_28.8_40.6_104.4_17.7__189.0_54.0_47.7_27.0_21.0_22.0_25.0_63.2__1128.3 Roger Smith __________ 90.5_35.0_80.0_27.0_45.0_30.0_90.0_70.0_27.0_55.0__87.0_10.5__200.5_45.5_66.0_39.0_12.0_30.0_14.5_55.0__1109.5 DonSutherland.1 _______81.7_50.0_83.9_45.0_56.5_41.5_82.4_48.9_42.7_38.2_109.4_23.0__145.2_47.1_40.4_32.3_18.5_35.0_25.2_49.2__1096.1 vpbob21 _____________ 76.4_44.1_49.5_34.7_43.2_33.2_65.9_47.0_31.4_38.8__70.1_24.6__216.0_44.7_53.1_45.1_16.9_36.3_26.6_52.0__1049.6 ___ Contest normal ____ 80.4_38.1_67.2_28.4_44.8_34.0_77.1_54.2_25.9_46.1__75.7_13.9__199.8_49.2_50.6_33.5__9.2_24.9_18.4_42.5___1013.9 madwx _______________84.5_45.4_66.1_27.3_52.1_36.1_75.1_49.8_26.2_41.3__65.1_14.2__181.2_42.3_48.3_40.7_11.4_26.3_16.2_51.3__1000.9 ___ Contest median ____77.0_42.0_66.1_27.3_45.0_33.2_75.0_49.0_26.2_40.6__70.1_14.0__188.0_43.0_47.7_39.0_15.0_29.0_22.0_49.2___998.4* Mississauga Snow _____ 96.0_39.0_41.0_22.0_50.0_31.0_70.0_45.0_17.0_35.0__80.0_11.0__200.0_34.0_55.0_40.0_15.0_26.0_30.0_47.0___984.0 cyclone77 ____________ 90.0_44.0_59.0_29.0_41.0_26.0_73.0_47.0_24.0_42.0__78.0__9.0__175.0_43.0_47.0_46.0_11.0_31.0_24.0_41.0___980.0 Jackstraw ____________ 72.0_30.0_91.0_27.0_41.0_36.0_75.0_49.0_31.0_31.0__64.0_14.0__212.0_35.0_30.0_34.0_22.0_20.0_16.0_46.0___976.0 slowpoke _____________72.0_42.0_57.0_29.0_38.0_30.0_68.0_49.0_25.0_42.0__66.0_12.0__188.0_47.0_47.0_40.0_12.0_29.0_22.0_48.0___963.0 Stebo ________________65.0_35.0_83.0_22.0_48.0_37.0_77.0_45.0_25.0_35.0__60.0_18.0__185.0_40.0_35.0_31.0_18.0_20.0_20.0_50.0___949.0 DAFF ________________75.0_37.0_50.0_26.0_39.0_30.0_73.0_51.0_20.0_45.0__65.0_12.0__172.0_41.0_48.0_38.0_14.0_29.0_17.0_37.0___919.0 ______________________________________ *contest median total is sum of twenty median forecasts, the median total is 984.0  Tiebreakers (same order as table of entries) dmc76 ______________ Dec ORD 10.2" __ Jan IND 11.0" ___ Feb DTW 12.0" Roger Smith __________Dec ORD 13.5" __ Jan IND 10.0" ___ Feb DTW 12.5" DonSutherland.1 ______ Dec ORD 11.7" __ Jan IND 13.7" ___ Feb DTW 14.2" vpbob21 _____________ Dec ORD 3.6" ___Jan IND 9.4" ____ Feb DTW 13.1" madwx ______________ Dec ORD 9.2" ___ Jan IND 8.4" ____Feb DTW 18.3" Mississauga Snow ______ Dec ORD 4.1" ___ Jan IND 11.0"___ Feb DTW 16.0" cyclone77 ____________ Dec ORD 6.7" ___ Jan IND 9.6" ___ Feb DTW 13.4" Jackstraw ____________ Dec ORD 4.5" ___ Jan IND 12.0"___Feb DTW 10.5" slowpoke _____________ Dec ORD 6.0" ___ Jan IND 7.0" ___ Feb DTW 8.0" Stebo _______________ Dec ORD 6.7" ___ Jan IND 10.2" ___Feb DTW 15.2" DAFF________________ Dec ORD 10.7" ___Jan IND 13.8" ___Feb DTW 14.9" (mean of above entries) _________7.9" __________ 10.6" ___________ 13.5"

Snowfalls to date -- to May 9, 2019 -- this post will be updated whenever new snow is reported ... LOCATION _______ Oct __Nov __Dec __Jan _ Feb _Mar _Apr+May Contest total __ % Normal (full season) APN ______________ 0.2__11.2 __11.5__33.6 __24.7__ 8.1 __10.1 ____ 99.4 _______ 124 ORD ______________ Tr __12.7 __ 1.4 __18.2 __ 9.0 __ 0.3 __ 7.9 ____49.5 _______ 130 CLE _______________0.0 __ 4.4 __ 2.8 __16.0 __ 5.4 __ 6.6 __ 0.0 ____35.2 ________ 52 CMH ______________0.0 __ 2.1 __ 0.4 __11.3__11.6 __ 2.0 __ 0.0 ____ 27.4 ________ 96 DTW ______________ Tr __ 6.7 __ 0.5 __14.2 __ 7.3 __ 2.6 __ 0.0 ____ 31.3 ________ 70 FWA ______________0.0 __ 2.1 __ 0.1 __14.3 __ 5.4 __ 2.7 __ 0.1 ____ 24.7 ________ 73 GRR ______________ Tr __14.4 __ 3.2 __30.5__ 20.4 __ 7.9 __ 4.9 ____ 81.3 _______105 GRB ______________ Tr __ 3.8 __ 8.1 __22.7 __ 28.4 __ 6.5 __ 4.5 ____ 74.0 _______137 IND _______________Tr __ 0.4 __ 0.5 __ 11.7 __ 4.5 __ 2.3 __ 0.0 ____ 19.4 ________ 75 LSE ______________ 0.1 __ 1.9 __ 4.0 __15.1__ 31.1 __ 5.9 __ 6.2 ____ 64.3 _______ 139 YXU ______________ 0.0 __ 3.2 __ 2.0 __16.0 __ 9.4 __ 2.8 __ 0.6 ____ 34.0 ______ 45 SDF ______________ 0.0 __ 0.5 __ Tr ___ 7.5 __ 0.6 __ 2.6 __ 0.0 ____ 11.2 _________81 MQT ______________4.2 _ 37.7 _ 39.0 __34.1 _ 89.9 __ 8.2 __ 8.6+5.8_227.5 ____ 114 MKE ______________ Tr __ 6.6 __ 1.5 __20.2 __18.7 __ 1.6 __ 7.5 ____ 56.1 ________ 114 MSP ______________0.3 __ 4.0 __ 6.7 __ 6.8 __39.0 __10.5 __ 9.8 ____ 77.1 _______ 151 MLI ______________ 0.2 _ 18.4 __ 1.1 __30.2 __ 8.8 __ 2.1 __ 0.0 ____ 60.8 ________ 181 PAH ______________0.0 __ 2.3 __ Tr ___ 3.2 __ 0.3 __ 0.3 __ 0.0 _____ 6.1 _________ 66 PIA _______________Tr __ 9.8 __ 0.4 __17.9 __ 2.5 __ 0.8 __ 5.0 ____ 36.4 _________146 STL ______________0.0 __ 5.2 __ 1.7 __12.5 __ 2.4 __ 2.4 __ 0.0 ____ 24.2 _________132 YYZ ______________1.0 __ 6.2 __ 2.2 __24.9 __17.3 __ 3.3 __0.2 ____ 55.1 _________130 ________ _______ _______ _______ _______ _______ _______ _______ _______ _______ Total _____________________________________________________ 1094.6 _____ 108.0% _____________________________________________________________________________ _ All locations updated to May 2nd. ORD had 2.5" MKE 1.7" and LSE 0.3" on Apr 27th, YYZ 0.1" on 29th and MQT 5.4" on May 1st and 0.4" May 7-9. ... Canadian locations are converted to inches from cms. ... LSE and GRB became 6th and 7th locations to pass contest average on 20th. MSP is now the 8th and MQT the 9th station to pass 1986-2015 contest averages. ... APN surpassed seasonal average but the addition came from a revised November total. That makes ten stations above contest average now. ... MKE edged past contest normal on April 10th. GRR reached contest normal on April 11th and passed it on the 14th. ... CMH is within 4% of seasonal average but is running out of time to increase. ... The least snow relative to normal has fallen at YXU (45%) and CLE (52%). ... The remaining five locations (DTW, FWA, IND, SDF, PAH) are in the 66 to 81 per cent range. TOTAL SNOWFALL PASSED THE CONTEST NORMAL VALUE ON MARCH 30th.

Still thinking that we are entering the best part of the winter for eastern states, one or more of these energy peaks seems likely to deliver good snowstorm events: Feb 2-4, Feb 12-15 and/or Feb 17-20. The predecessor events in the series have tracked mostly inland and delivered to regions like the eastern Great Lakes, interior New England, central PA, Ohio. With a bit of retrograde influence peaking in early to mid February, expect the storm track to loop further south ending up closer to the east coast. I am holding to my earlier prediction that a warm trend would then quickly develop into March and that March-April might be well above normal in temperature in many parts of eastern and central NA.

From a different research perspective I am expecting a peak in retrogression and blocking in mid-February. Is there any chance that the MJO index has some correlation to externally driven factors? I have not had much time to investigate this, but the retrograde index that I use has periods like 90 and 120 days (won't say more precisely what they are outside a research paper). And is the MJO a retrograde feature or random in its movements relative to longitude? I have thought all along that this would be a difficult winter to forecast because of the competing influences of El Nino (a warming influence) and the combination of low solar and prior negative anomaly buildups in a source region (central arctic of Canada). Rather like saying your football team has a strong offence and almost no defence, will you be favored to win or lose?

Reality has passed the following numbers of forecasts: BWI _ 1 forecast surpassed. DCA _ 5 forecasts surpassed. IAD _ 3 forecasts surpassed. RIC _ 12 forecasts surpassed. and I think SBY has passed one of 55 who chose it, LYH has not passed any of its three forecasts.

After the widespread snowfalls of the past few days, the contest grid has now passed the 40% mark (table is back in the thread, first posted Dec 17th and edited up to date). STL has passed its average for 1986-2015. MQT has roughly one quarter of all the snow recorded and is a little over half of its seasonal average at 105" now. Plenty of snowfall opportunities appear on the charts so we should at least keep pace with normal snowfall for a while yet. I think that 40% on January 21st is probably a touch below average pace but not much, as February and March contribute at least 40% of a normal winter's snowfall and April perhaps 5%, so we should be at about 55% at the end of this month to be on a normal pace. That would only take 150" of snow over the 20-station grid or an average of 7.5" per location in the next ten days. The location doing worst so far is YXU sub Tillsonburg although they have yet to report the second half of the snowstorm and could go up from current 18% of normal. MSP and LSE are also in a snow drought relatively speaking in the low 20's for percentages. The highest performers behind STL (now at 103%) are MLI and PIA (both at 93%). That is largely because of their totals in November. (MLI took over the lead on Jan 23rd). Forecasts are generally still ahead of actuals, with a few exceptions for STL, MLI and PIA. But these are some of the error totals you now have locked in from those locations (updated for Jan 22nd snow at MLI, none reported at STL or PIA) ... this has changed as of Jan 23rd, see the scoring table two posts down for updated info as MLI added 5.9" and PIA 0.1" bringing in contest normal (MLI) and adding to all of these totals. The table below was valid after Jan 22nd but won't be updated. dmc76 _____ 7.7" __ (MLI and PIA, still 6.0" to give at STL) Jackstraw ___6.2" __ (PIA and STL) Stebo ______ 5.7" __ (PIA and MLI, almost caught at STL with 1.0" left to give) Roger Smith _4.5" __ (STL only) madwx _____ 2.8" __ (STL only) DAFF _______2.2" __ (STL only) DonSutherland 1.2" __ (MLI only) and the rest of the field are so far not into red numbers on any of these. ... The entire field have amounts left to use up everywhere else.

Best chances for thunder probably around 8 p.m. to 2 a.m. ahead of the low center which will be close to FDK around 0400h. A secondary peak will accompany the cold front mid-day Sunday.

Low is currently in w TN and track appears to be something like CRW to 50n FDK to PHL to ISP to BOS. There may be some eastward jogs in that overall e.n.e. to n.e. track. So I would expect some interesting weather to develop later because this is not advecting warm air very efficiently and when heavier precip moves in over top, it could change phase in some parts of MD and far n VA, ne WV. Not saying snow from that, more like ice pellets or sleet. Eventually it will begin to draw in the high 50s and low 60s temps from se VA but I think a very sharp demarcation of air masses will develop overnight so that some counties of se MD will reach 60-65 and the I-95 will stay around 40-45, further north 33-38. This is when precip could get quite thundery. When the low center reaches NYC the arctic cold front will be rushing southeast and temps on Sunday will likely fall 20-30 deg in a few hours, from those variable numbers in the warm sector and frontal zone, to 10-15 F. Some bursts of moderate snow are possible with the passage of the arctic front, 0.1 to 0.3 inch forecast for the airports and 1.0 inch for some parts of nw MD. So for the northern half of the forum it won't be a simple case of warming up, raining, and turning colder. For the southern half it may play out like that more so.

I don't want the UK I just want a KU, I don't want the Euro I just want a big snow, I don't want the RGEM, I just want a front end, I don't want the GFS, I just want these storms suppressed a little. a little. a little. a little.