Roger Smith

April anomalies and forecasts ... ______________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA (8th) ______ (7d) _______+0.1 _+0.2 _+3.1 __ +3.1 _+1.6 _--1.4 __ +5.3 _+2.8 _+5.1 (15th) ____ (14d) _______+5.4 _+3.2 _+2.1 __ +0.9 _+5.5 _+0.2 __ +0.8 _+1.9 _+3.0 (22nd) ____(21 d) ______ +5.7 _+3.7 _+5.2 __ +1.7 _+2.8 _--0.8 __ +2.5 _+2.2 _+2.8 (29th) ____ (28 d) ______ +5.9 _+3.0 _+4.0 __ +1.5 _+2.9 _--0.3 __ +2.9 _+3.0 _+2.2 (8th) ______ (p14d) _____+2.5 _+2.0 _+2.0 __ +2.0 _+2.8 _+0.8 __ +1.8 _+1.4 _+3.0 (15th) _____ (p21d) _____+4.5 _+3.0 _+2.5 __ +1.5 _+5.0 _+0.5 __ +2.0 _+2.0 _+2.0 (22nd) _____ (p28d) _____+4.0 _+3.2 _+3.0 __ +2.5 _+3.0 __0.0 __ +2.5 _+3.0 _+2.0 (8th) ______ (p24d) _____ +2.5 _+2.0 _+2.0 __ +3.0 _+3.0 _+2.0 __ +0.5 _+1.0 _+1.5 (15th) _____ (p30d) _____ +3.5 _+3.0 _+2.5 __ +1.5 _+5.0 _+2.0 __ +2.5 _+2.5 _+0.5 (21st) _____ (p30d) _____ +3.5 _+3.0 _+2.5 __ +3.0 _+3.0 _+0.5 __ +2.5 _+2.5 _+1.5 (29th) _____ (p30d) _____ +5.6 _+2.5 _+3.5 __ +1.0 _+3.5 _+0.2 __ +2.0 _+2.5 _+2.0 (May 1) __ final _________ +5.5 _+2.4 _+3.6 __ +0.8 _+3.3 _+0.2 __ +1.7 _+2.6 _+2.1 ______________________________________________________ 15th _ Forecasts for the past week were mostly good if a bit conservative on changes, average error 1.1 but with large changes in anomaly, that's fairly good (and the conservative bias might have been more my input than NWS so it's on me). Projections to 21st mostly based on a subdued warmish regime although quite warm for both PHX and DEN at times. The extension to end of month based on GFS trends which look mainly like continuations of next week, although SEA shows a downward trend in general as west coast ridge shifts further inland. Too early for reliable provisional scoring, consensus score at present is 652/900, but changes likely in the snowfall contest which continues to be adjusted over in the March thread, will bring it here in a few days time when the current event in the Midwest is completed. 22nd _ Posting some provisionals on the old projections as they seem fairly good approximations, after revising the central three -- will be away for a week to the 29th or even 30th now, so would not look for any further updates. Have posted some updates for 21 days and p28, leaving the p30 data as shown yesterday so the provisional scoring holds until I get back on the 30th from a planned week away. May thread is open. 29th _ Late 29th on returning from holiday, I updated the anomalies and provisionals. Scoring is updated and will be finalized after 30th. May 1 _ Final anomalies posted above, scoring will be adjusted by noon EDT.

Table of forecasts for April 2019 FORECASTER _________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Roger Smith __________________+2.5 _+2.0 _+1.8 __+3.0 _+3.0 _+3.0 ___+1.5 _+1.8 _+1.2 BKViking _____ (-2%) __________+2.3 _+1.7 _+1.1 __--0.6 _+1.9 _+1.4 ___--1.0 _+0.2 _+1.3 Stebo _______________________ +2.2 _+2.7 _+2.2 __+1.0 _+2.0 _+1.5 ___--1.5 _--1.0 _--1.0 wxallannj ____________________ +2.1 _+1.9 _+0.8 __+1.0 _+1.4 _--0.4 ___+1.2 _+0.5 _--0.6 wxdude64 ____ (-1%) _________ +2.1 _+1.8 _+1.7 __--1.1 _+1.8 _+1.6 ___--1.8 _+0.4 _+1.5 DonSutherland.1 ______________ +2.0 _+2.0 _+1.4 __+3.5 _+1.8 _+0.6 ___+1.0 _+1.6 _+2.0 ___ Consensus ________________+2.0 _+1.9 _+1.4 __+1.0 _+1.8 _+1.4 ___+0.6 _+0.5 _+1.0 RodneyS _____________________+1.9 _+1.9 _+2.0 __+0.9 _+1.7 _+0.7 ___+1.1 _+1.8 _+1.5 hudsonvalley21 _______________ +1.8 _+2.2 _+1.7 __+1.8 _+2.1 _+1.9 ___--1.1 _--0.3 _+0.7 Tom ________________________+1.6 _+1.5 _+1.4 __+2.3 _+1.2 _+1.1 ___+0.6 _+0.5 _+0.5 Scotty Lightning _______________+1.5 _+1.0 _+1.0 __+1.0 _+1.5 _+1.5 ____ 0.0 __0.0 _+0.5 RJay __________ (-10%) _______+1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 __+2.0 _+1.7 _+1.0 ___ +1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ Normal ___________________ 0.0 __0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

This is true on the 00z GFS run there is almost nothing depicted under the inland center and all the development is supposed to take place with the coastal. Radar shows a different story. I have a hunch this could surprise and bring 1-3" snowfalls to some areas in the Mid Atlantic. It's after midnight now so no April fool's joke intended.

+2.5 __ +2.0 __ +1.8 ___ +3.0 __ +3.0 __ +3.0 ___ +1.5 __ +1.8 __ +1.2

Small amounts of snow on March 30th have put the contest over the 1986-2015 average of 1013.9" by a fraction of a percentage (1014.4"). The contest still depends on whether more snow falls at stations such as PIA, STL, APN and YYZ where the various leaders are in different positions relative to snowfall they can absorb with lower departures. See the tables above, the percentage table just above this is an alternate scoring system, the main contest scoring has the date January 23rd and has been edited since then. We won't know until the end of April who wins the contest.

I wonder if anyone actually reads this post, I could really do well in the contest if I changed the format to actual instead of anomaly-based ... just kidding ... So it's as always the nine locations and a forecast of departures from 1981-2010 normal values for DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA (forecasts in F deg relative to normals). The usual deadline and late penalties apply. Good luck !!

<<<<< ===== ----- ----- ----- ----- Annual Contest Scoring Jan-Mar 2019 ----- ----- ----- ----- ===== >>>>> A new look for the annual table this year, will continue with the all nine format of monthly scoring. Best score tallies will be handled in a separate table. From now to end of 2019, best scores will be tabulated for the eleven regular participants and this will continue with any new or temporary additions getting best scores in addition to those. Highest cumulative scores are shown in red in this table (for nine locations) or bold for subtotals. FORECASTER _____________DCA_NYC_BOS __east__ ORD_ATL_IAH__cent __ c/e ___ DEN_PHX_SEA __west___all 9 TOTAL wxdude64 _______________244 _260 _230 __ 734 __228 _160 _224 __ 612__1346 __227 _198 _ 72 __497____1843 ___ Consensus ___________ 254 _266 _216 __ 736__150 _176 _228 __ 554 __1290 __ 173 _204 _124 __ 501 ____1791 DonSutherland.1 __________212 _254 _170 __ 636 __166 _162 _220 __ 548 __1184 __ 189 _218 _198__ 605____1789 hudsonvalley21 ___________220 _264 _230 __ 714 __132 _188 _216 __ 536 __1250 __ 141 _230_148 __ 519 ____1769 RodneyS ________________ 188 _212 _230 __ 630 __132 _202 _244 __ 578 __1208 __ 207 _198 _136 __ 541 ____1749 Stebo ___________________235 _233 _238 __ 706 __146 _145 _201 __ 492 __1198 __ 191 _189 __87 __ 467 ____1665 wxallannj ________________220 _224 _258 __ 702 __ 92 _220_214 __ 526 __1228 __ 116 _192 _114 __ 422 ____1650 Roger Smith _____________ 258 _188_212 __ 658 ___74 _150 _270 __ 494 __1152 __ 183 _162 _130 __ 475 ____1627 ___ Normal ______________212 _264 _214 __ 690 __136 _136 _214 __ 486 __1176 __ 089 _223 _123 __ 435 ____1611 BKViking _________________232 _270_217 __ 719 __156 _137 _191 __ 484 __1203 __ 174 _153 _ 79 __ 406 ____1609 Scotty Lightning ___________230 _234 _232 __ 696 __106 _196 _196 __ 498 __1194 __ 080 _176 _136 __ 392 ____1586 Tom ____________________168 _246 _168 __ 582 __226 __ 82 _224 __ 532 __1114 __ 095 _208 _134 __ 437 ____1551 RJay ____________________148 _181 _173 __ 502 __188 _124 _212 __ 524 __1026 __ 186 _218 _118 __ 522 ____1548 _______________________________________________________________________ Best scores in each category _ (nine locations, three regional subtotals, and central-eastern or "original six" subtotal (c/e). _ These are best scores in each monthly contest, best total scores are highlighted in the table above in red. Order for best scores will be based on rank in table above. FORECASTER __________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA__west___all nine wxdude64 ______________ 1 ___0 ___0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___1 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ___Consensus ___________1 ___0 ___0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0 DonSutherland.1 _________0 ___1 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___0 ___0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___2 ___ 1 ____ 0 RodneyS _______________ 0 ___0 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___0 ___0 ___ 1 ____ 0 hudsonvalley21 __________0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___0 ___0 ___ 1 ____ 1 wxallannj _______________0 ___1 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0 Stebo __________________1 ___0 ___0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 1 Roger Smith ____________ 2 ___0 ___0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___1 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ Normal _____________ 1 ___1 ___0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0 BKViking _______________ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0 Scotty Lighning __________ 0 ___0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___1 ___ 0 ____ 0 RJay ___________________0 ___0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0 Tom ___________________0 ___1 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___0 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0 __________________________________________________________________________________ Extreme forecasts STANDINGS to date in 2019 _ March provisional DonSutherland1 ______ 4-0 RodneyS ____________ 3-2 Roger Smith _________ 3-2 Stebo ______________ 2-0 Scotty Lightning ______ 2-0 wxallannj ____________1-0 RJay ________________1-0 Normal ______________1-0 Tom ________________1-1 ______________________________________________________________________________

Final scoring for March 2019 Scores in orange are subject to late penalties (shown in next line). High scores in bold (after late penalties). FORECASTER ____________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__c/e___ DEN_PHX_SEA__west___ TOTAL wxdude64 ______________ 98 _ 90 _ 80 __268 __ 90 _ 90 _ 78 __ 258 __526 __ 75 _ 96_ 40 __ 211 _____737 RodneyS ________________64 _ 86 _ 64 __ 214 __ 74 _ 64 _ 94 __ 232 __ 446 __89 _ 90 _ 46 __ 225 _____ 671 ___ Consensus __________ 98 _ 94 _ 66 __ 258 __ 52 _ 90 _ 80 __ 222 __ 486 __ 47 _ 88 _ 46 __ 181 _____ 661 hudsonvalley21 __________ 86 _ 80 _ 94__ 260 __ 42 _ 90 _ 80 __ 212 __ 472 __ 13 _ 90 _ 52 __ 155 _____ 627 Tom ___________________ 96 _ 94 _ 76 __ 266 __ 46 _ 76 _ 92 __ 214 __480 __ 07 _ 86 _ 48 __ 141 _____ 621 DonSutherland.1 _________ 60 _ 82 _ 60 __ 202 __ 68 _ 50 _ 86 __ 204 __ 406 __ 67 _ 88 _ 60 __ 215_____ 621 ___ Normal _____________100 _ 84 _ 86 __ 270__ 28 _ 78 _ 86 __ 192 __ 462 __ 00 _ 92 _ 62 __ 154 _____ 616 Scotty Lightning __________80 _ 64 _ 94 __ 238 __ 08 _98 _ 66 __ 172 __ 410 __ 00 _ 82 _ 72 __ 154 _____ 564 wxallannj _______________ 76 _ 68 _ 90 __ 234 __ 48 _ 76 _ 56 __ 180 __ 414 __ 00 _ 82 _ 42 __ 124 _____ 538 RJay ___________________ 50 _ 66 _ 36 __ 152 __ 98 _ 48 _ 86__ 232 __ 384 __ 47 _ 72 _ 62 __ 181 _ 565 ____________ (-5%) _____ 48 _ 63 _ 34 __ 145 __ 93 _ 46 _ 82 __ 221 __ 366 __ 45 _ 68 _ 59 __ 172 _____ 538 BKViking ________________96 _ 94 _ 62 __ 252 __ 52 _ 88 _ 60 __ 200 __ 452 __ 33 _ 64 _ 36 __ 133 _ 585 ____________ (-8%) _____ 88 _ 86 _ 57 __ 231 __ 48 _ 81 _ 55 __ 184 __ 415 __ 30 _ 59 _ 33 __ 122 _____ 537 Roger Smith _____________64 _ 68 _ 42 __ 174 __ 46 _ 48 _100__ 194 __ 368 __ 87 _ 80 _ 00 __ 167 _____ 535 Stebo __________________ 70 _ 74 _ 66 __ 210 __ 52 _ 82 _ 66 __ 200 __ 410 __ 47 _ 52 _ 32 __ 131 _ 541 ____________ (-5%) _____ 67 _ 70 _ 63 __ 200 __ 49 _ 78 _ 63 __ 190 __ 390 __ 45 _ 49 _ 30 __ 124 _____ 514 _____________________________________________________________________________ Extreme forecast report There are now four extreme forecasts in play at this time. BOS is a shared win for Scotty Lightning (+1.0) and hudsonvalley21 (+0.4) with a finish at +0.7. IAH is a win for Roger Smith with the coldest forecast at -0.7. DEN is a win for RodneyS (-4.6) as it finished -5.3. SEA will be a win for Scotty Lightning (+0.5) expected to finish around +1.9.

Updates on the trends and forecasts ... ________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ____ (7d) _______ --6.5 _--8.8 _--6.1__--14.9 _--3.8 _--9.2 ___--17.1 _+3.8 _--5.3 ___ (14d) _______ --1.9 _--4.2 _--2.8__ --6.3 _ +2.5 _+0.6 ___ --9.6 _--1.4 _--4.6 ___ (21d) _______ --0 5_--2.0 _--0.7__ --4.6 _ +0.8 _--1.0 ___ --7.8 __ 0.0 _+0.4 ___ (28d) _______ --0 8_--1.7 _--0.3__ --3.5 _ +0.8 _--0.2 ___ --5.0 _+0.4 _+1.4 _8th __ (p14d) ___ --4.5 _--6.0 _--4.0 __ --8.0 _--1.0 _--2.0 ___--11.0 __0.0 _--3.5 15th __ (p21d) ___ --0.5 _--2.0 _--1.3 __ --4.3 _+1.0 __ 0.0 ___ --6.4 _+1.1 _--1.5 22nd __ (p28d)___ --0.7 _--1.5 _--1.0 __ --3.0 _ +0.5 __ 0.0 ___ --4.5 _+1.0 _+0.1 _8th __ (p24d) ___ --3.0 _--3.5 _--2.5 __ --5.0 _--0.5 _--0.5 ___ --7.0 _+0.5 _--2.0 15th __ (p31d) ___ --0.5 _--1.5 _--1.0 __ --2.5 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ --2.5 _+2.0 _--2.0 22nd __ (p31d) ___ --0.5 _--1.5 _--1.0 __ --2.5 _+1.0 __0.0 ___ --3.0 _+1.0 _--0.5 29th __ (p31d) ___ --0.2 _--1.0 _+0.2 __ --4.0 _+1.0 __0.0 ___ --5.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 final anomalies ____ 0.0 _--0.8 _+0.7 __ --3.6 _+1.1 _--0.7 ___ --5.3 _+0.4 _+1.9 __________________________________________________________________ (15th) _ Trends in the past week turned out more extreme than predicted, leading to moderate errors (the expected warming outpaced forecasts especially by 13th-14th). Even so the forecasts caught about two-thirds of the actual warming. SEA on the other hand only moderated slightly. A larger western warming is expected this coming week with temperatures returning to near normal values in most of the eastern and central states. The outlook period from 22nd to 31st (GFS guidance) was handled as near normal in the northeast and ORD, trending to +3 warmth in the southeast and southwest, and a return to slightly below normal values for SEA.... seems a bit early to work out provisional scoring yet with those late month trends looking subject to revision later. (22nd) _ Forecasts for the past week have verified well (average error was 0.72, a larger portion for SEA which warmed up to record levels for several days where the forecast had been a bit less robust). This coming week looks fairly close to normal or a touch below in most places, and the month end portion 29th to 31st appears to confirm the earlier trends. So I will post some provisional scoring for the month soon. (29th) _ Forecasts have been quite close this past week (average error 0.49) but the outlook for 29th-31st at that last forecast has changed enough to make it necessary to adjust most of the provisionals. DEN and ORD will now fail to gain any further ground and will stay near the cold end of our forecast range. SEA had the largest error last week and is finishing warmer than predicted in the provisionals. The eastern stations are all getting a slight boost too. (1st April) _ Final anomalies have been posted overnight and on Monday morning. Scoring has been adjusted.

That 3 to 5 inch potential has vanished more recently, could see faint hope near end of the current run but we all know what usually happens to snow at 15 days. The maps are available at this link: http://wetterzentrale.de click on "Archiv" option and go to 20th century NOAA which in fact is now 1851 to 2014 NOAA. From there, navigate using "nordhemispher" option. Let me know if that is not sufficient to get you to the maps. This link should go to April 28, 1898. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?uur=1800&amp;var=1&amp;nmaps=24&amp;map=2&amp;model=noaa&amp;jaar=1898&amp;maand=04&amp;dag=28 My German is not that good, but I now know the words for day, month and year. Abschicken is what you press to activate a selected date from the menu. Hover works to allow you to change maps within the 3-day adjacent menu without the help of Abs chicken.

This is the updated "snow you need" table with error amounts already logged and surpassed in brackets. I have added the interesting feature of forecasts passed by actual snowfall, each time somebody adds to that total, the running total changes (same order as the forecast departures). As you'll see, only four forecasts have been overtaken by BWI, while it is 11 for RIC, 12 for DCA and 14 for IAD. Of the 59 forecasts, 18 have at least one forecast passed by actual snowfall, 41 therefore can still finish perfect with the right residual snowfalls (one forecast is currently on the money for DCA). The leader in that category (no forecasts surpassed) is event host Prince Frederick wx. Forecaster ______ Nov date ____ BWI ___ DCA ___ IAD ____ RIC ____ TOTAL _ (forecasts passed by actual) Stormpc ___________26 _______ 1.7 ___(0.2) ___ (1.9) ___ 4.1 ______ 7.9 ____ 0 1 1 0 Olafminesaw _______ 25 _______ 1.2 ___ 0.4 ____(3.0) ___(3.3) ______7.9 ____ 0 1 2 1 RodneyS __________ 21 _______ 2.1 ___(3.0)___ (2.9) ____ 0.2 ______8.2 ____ 0 2 3 1 Weather53 _________21 ______ 3.0 ___(0.4)___ (4.4) ____ 1.6 ______ 9.4 ____ 0 3 4 1 nw Baltimore wx ___ 10 _______ 3.8 ___ (0.9) ___(1.5)___ (5.1) _____ 11.3 ____ 0 4 5 2 Bob Chill __________ 27 _______ 7.8 ___ (0.9) ___ 2.5 ____ 0.9 ______ 12.1 ____ 0 5 5 2 Prince Frederick Wx __1 ________6.3 ___ 0.8 ____ 1.3 ____ 4.0 ______ 12.4 WinterWxLuvr ______ 8 ________4.8 ___ 1.1 ____ 5.5 ____ (2.1) _____ 13.5 ____ 0 5 5 3 biodhokie __________ 8 _______ 3.1 ___ 0.9 ____ (8.4) ___ 1.4 ______ 13.8 ____ 0 5 6 3 Chris78 ____________ 1 _______ 8.5 ___ 1.5 ____ 2.1 ____ 1.8 ______ 13.9 leesburg 04 _________1 _______ 3.8 ___ (4.9)____(3.5) ___(2.1) _____ 14.3 ____ 0 6 7 4 MN Transplant _____ 28 _______ (0.4) ___(2.7)___(6.9) ___ (5.3) _____ 15.3 ____ 1 7 8 5 dmillz25 ____________1 ______ 10.8 ___ 2.1 ____(1.5)____(2.1) _____ 16.5 ____ 1 7 9 6 Thanatos_I_Am ____ 30 _______ 9.4 ___ 1.4 ____(0.7)____ (5.6) _____ 17.1 ____ 1 7 10 7 Grothar of Herndon _ 30 _______ 7.5 ___ 1.4 ____ 2.6 ____ 6.1 ______ 17.6 MillvilleWx __________1 _______ 9.2 ___ 4.2 ____ 3.0 ____ 1.9 ______ 18.3 supernovasky _______ 9 _______ 1.8 ___ (5.9) ___(7.5) ___(4.1) _____ 19.3 ____ 1 8 11 8 cae ______________ 30 _______ 9.4 ___ 4.9 ____ 4.8 ____(0.4)______ 19.5 ____ 1 8 11 9 Gopper ___________ 15 ______ 10.6 ___ 0.8 ____ 6.8 ____ 2.4 ______ 20.6 Gramax Refugee ____27 ______ 11.3 ___ 0.0 ____ 5.5 ____ 4.1 ______ 20.9 NorthArlington101 ___ 1 _______ 7.5 ___ 5.9 ____ 5.7 ____ 2.9 ______ 22.0 Wonderdog ________ 9 ________8.8 ___(0.3)____ 6.5 ____ 6.9 ______ 22.5 ____ 1 9 11 9 Yoda _____________ 27 ______ 11.4 ___ 4.9 ____ 6.4 ____ 1.0 ______ 23.7 WxWatcher007 _____30 ______ 10.7 ___ 4.2 ____ 6.0 ____ 3.3 ______ 24.2 mattie g __________ 28 ______ 12.4 ___ 4.2 ___ 12.2 ____ 0.8 ______ 29.6 Prestige Worldwide __27 ______ 12.8___ 6.1 ____ 8.5 ____ 2.7 ______ 30.1 North Balti Zen ______5 ______ 10.6 ___ 4.2 ____ 9.2 ____ 6.5 ______ 30.5 ___ Consensus ____ median ___ 12.4___ 5.8 ____ 8.5 ____ 3.9 ______ 30.6 Bristow Wx _________ 1 ______ (4.4) _ (10.2) __(13.9) ___(4.4) _____ 32.9 ___ 2 10 12 10 Shadowzone _______ 14 ______ 13.5___ 7.2 ____ 9.2 ____ 3.7 ______ 33.6 LP08 ______________ 5 ______ 16.2 ___ 2.8 ___ 16.1 ____ 0.2 ______ 35.3 wxUSAF ___________ 5 ______ 13.3 ___ 5.8 ____ 8.7 ____ 8.0 ______ 35.8 mappy _____________5 ______ 13.8___ 8.1 ____ 8.5 ____ 5.9 ______ 36.3 Sparky ____________ 2 ______ 15.8___ 8.1 ___ 12.5 ____ 0.9 ______ 37.3 EastCoastNPZ ______ 22 _____ (7.3) __(10.4) __(15.4) ___(4.4) _____ 37.5 ___ 3 11 13 11 BTRwx'sThanksGiving_12 _____ 15.8___ 7.1 ___ 11.5 ____ 3.9 ______ 38.3 T. August _________ 21 ______ 17.8___ 6.0 ____ 1.0 ____16.1______ 40.9 Cobalt ____________ 30 ______ 15.0___10.0 ___12.9 ____ 3.7 ______ 41.6 clskinsfan _________ 20 ^ 1 ___19.3___10.6 ___ 10.0 ____ 5.4 ______ 45.3 OnceinaLifetime2009_ 28 ______11.9___ 9.8 ___ 18.0 ____ 6.8 ______ 46.5 HighStakes _________ 6 ______ 19.2___ 7.6 ___ 14.6 ____ 6.9 ______ 48.3 ravensrule _________12 ______ 19.8___13.1 ___ 13.5 ____ 1.9 ______ 48.3 psuhoffman ________ 1 ______ 20.8___11.1 ___ 10.5 ____ 6.9 ______ 49.3 C. A. P. E. __________1 ______ 20.3___13.4 ____ 9.3 ____ 7.0 ______ 50.0 Roger Smith _______ 26 ^ 1___ 25.6___12.3 ___ 16.0 ____ 7.9 ______ 61.8 JakkelWx _________ 30 ______ 21.8___18.1 ___ 15.5 ___ 10.9 ______ 66.3 GATECH __________ 1 _______ 27.7___18.8 ___ 21.0 ____ 1.2 ______ 67.7 southMDwatcher ___ 20 _______25.6___14.2 ___ 21.4 ____ 7.6 ______ 68.8 budice2002 _______ 14 ______ 23.8___14.1 ___ 19.5 ____12.9 ______ 70.3 weatherCCB _______ 16 ______ 28.6___10.5 ___ 23.1 ____ 9.9 ______ 72.1 snowgolfbro _______ 10 ______ 28.8___13.1 ___ 25.5 ____ 4.9 ______ 72.3 nj2va _____________ 1 _______30.5___12.3 ___ 33.4 ____ 5.8 ______ 82.0 George BM ________ 15 _____ (16.5) __(15.5) __ (23.5) __ 29.6 _____ 85.1 ___ 4 12 14 11 SnowLuvrDude _____30 ______ 30.4___20.2 ___ 25.9 ____ 8.6 ______ 85.1 showmethesnow ___ 27 ______ 31.8___17.1 ___ 27.5 ___ 10.9 ______ 87.3 tplbge ____________16 _______34.8___17.1 ___ 22.5 ___ 15.9 ______ 90.3 wxdude64 ________ 13 _______37.6___21.5 ___ 30.9 ___ 13.0 ______103.0 osfan24 ___________ 7 _______36.1 __29.3 ___ 29.4 ___ 18.2 ______ 113.0 AFewUnivBelowN ___ 1 _______46.8 __23.1 ___ 29.5 ___ 14.9 ______ 114.3 RIC Airport ________ 1 _______44.3 __29.1 ___ 35.4 ___ 19.1 ______ 127.9 __________________________________________________________

Events around the 21st have 3-5" potential if they stay cold enough and phase slightly. That much would probably introduce a few new names to the discussion. I looked up weather maps for the 1898 and 1915 very late snowfalls, both were basically coastals.

At this point, it may look like the host is favored to win, but vpbob21 currently in third place has a clear path to first if it snows at ORD, PIA and/or STL later this month. The remaining amounts that he has at MQT would move him closer but in addition to that (which seems likely, only 4") there needs to be some snow at ORD, STL and/or PIA to close the deal. I don't see any way that any other forecaster can pass vpbob21 or myself, and slowpoke has run out of places with any advantage no matter how much snow falls, with three exceptions that don't add up to the required amount to change the order of finish. Also, vpbob21 has an advantage if any major snowfall were to hit the Ohio valley with more left at those locations than any of the other leaders. Even if vpbob21 can move ahead on all of those outcomes, he then has to avoid getting a return blow from added snow at GRR where I've still got 14.5" left to use. So it would need to be rather specific storm tracks that do well across the south and not at GRR. I've also got a bit left at APN and YYZ. Contest could therefore remain undecided until well into April.

Snowfall contest 2018-2019 -- moved from Feb contest thread for final updates ... updates through May 21st ... forecasts marked in red have been passed by actual snowfall. Table of departures (red can increase, black can decrease) FORECASTER ___________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV Snowfall to date ________ 16.9__20.5__27.4___49.5 __31.3 _118.8___48.1 __20.2 __103.6 RodneyS _______________ 4.4 __ 4.5*_ 10.1*___ 8.5 _ 12.2 __29.8 ____ 4.4 __15.7__30.6 ___ 120.2 (1) Roger Smith _____________1.1*__ 7.5 _ 17.6 __ 19.0 __ 4.2*_ 28.8 ___12.4 __10.2 __25.6 ___ 126.4 (2) Stebo __________________ 3.7 _ 13.8 _ 26.1 ___16.0 _ 15.7 __31.8 ___11.1 __ 9.5 __ 6.6 ___ 134.3 (3) DonSutherland.1 ________ 15.6 _ 29.5 _ 30.1 ___ 1.0 _ 22.2 __ 8.8 ____ 3.9 __16.7 __10.6 ___ 138.4 (4) hudsonvalley21 __________ 5.1 _ 19.5 _ 34.6 ___13.5 _ 16.9 __17.3 ____1.9*__14.5 __15.6 ___ 139.9 (5) wxdude64 ______________ 6.0 _ 20.1 _ 32.3 ____8.1 _ 14.6 __20.4 ___ 19.5 __13.5 __13.3 ___ 150.3 (6) ___ Consensus __________ 7.1 _ 24.0 _ 33.5 ___ 9.5 _ 13.4 _ 26.2 ____ 10.4 _ 13.8 __14.8 ___ 155.2 ((7)) wxallannj _______________ 8.1 _ 26.5 _ 24.6 ___ 0.5*_ 19.7 _ 35.8 ____ 8.9 __ 7.2 __ 26.6 ___ 157.9 (7) dmillz25 ________________ 7.1 _ 32.5 _ 39.6 ___ 9.5 __ 6.4 _ 33.8 ____ 8.9 __15.2 __13.6 ___ 166.6 (8) RJay __________________16.1 _ 33.5 _ 42.6 __ 19.5 __ 6.7 _ 18.8 ___ 16.9 __14.2 __ 3.6*___171.9 (9) Tom ___________________ 9.4 _ 35.9_ 38.2 __ 19.9 _ 10.3 _ 23.6 ___ 14.2 __18.3 __14.0 ___ 183.8 (10) BKViking _______________ 7.1 _ 34.5 _ 43.6 ___ 14.5 __ 7.7 _ 40.7 ___ 11.9 __ 2.2*_25.6 ___ 187.9 (11) Scotty Lightning __________8.1 _ 21.5 _ 47.6__ 20.5_ 48.7__1.3*___ 26.9 __10.2 __18.6 ___ 203.3 (12) _____________________________________________________________________________ these are now placed in rank order. * current low departure _ 2 for RodneyS and Roger Smith with hudsonvalley21, Scotty Lightning, BKViking, wxallannj and RJay holding one each. RodneyS regained the lead after DEN picked up 3.5" of snow in the past month in April. If DEN is the only location left with snow to come (BTV is now a non-issue anyway) then RodneyS would maintain a lead until 11.4" (now 7.5") more has fallen (edit May 21st, 3.9" has in fact fallen so far in May so now it should read 7.5"), then I would have the lower total departure (assuming no snow falls anywhere else). Neither of the two forecasters with more in their account than me at DEN can use their surprlus to catch me. I am not that confident that much more snow will fall at DEN but the season runs to mid-May there (and perhaps early June at this rate). So the odds are probably more in RodneyS' favor than myself. At other locations, I do not foresee much potential for the contest lead to change. ============================================ Actual forecasts >>> FORECASTER ___________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV Snowfall to date ________ 16.9__20.5 __27.4 ___49.5__31.3 _118.8___48.1__20.2 __103.6 RJay __________________33.0 _ 54.0 _ 70.0 __ 30.0 _ 38.0 _100.0___ 65.0 __ 6.0 _100.0 DonSutherland.1 ________ 32.5 _ 50.0 _ 57.5 __ 48.5 _ 53.5 _110.0___ 52.0 __ 3.5 _ 93.0 Tom __________________ 26.3 _ 56.4_ 65.6 __ 29.6 _ 41.6 _ 95.2 ___ 62.3 __ 1.9 _ 89.6 wxallannj ______________ 25.0 _ 47.0 _ 52.0 __ 49.0 _ 51.0 _ 83.0 ___ 57.0 _ 13.0 _ 77.0 Scotty Lightning _________25.0 _ 42.0 _ 75.0__ 70.0_ 80.0_120.0___75.0 _ 10.0 _ 85.0 BKViking _______________24.0 _ 55.0 _ 71.0 __ 35.0 _ 39.0 _ 78.0 ___ 60.0 _ 18.0 _ 78.0 ___ Consensus _________ 24.0 _ 44.5 _ 60.9 __ 37.5 _ 44.7 _ 92.6 ___ 58.5 __ 6.4 _ 88.8 dmillz25 _______________ 24.0 _ 53.0 _ 67.0 __ 40.0 _ 37.7 _ 85.0 ___ 57.0 __ 5.0 _ 90.0 wxdude64 _____________ 22.9 _ 40.6 _ 59.7 __ 38.9 _ 45.9 _ 98.4 ___ 67.6 __ 6.7 _ 90.3 hudsonvalley21 _________ 22.0 _ 40.0 _ 62.0 __ 36.0 _ 48.2 _101.5___ 51.0 __ 5.7 _ 88.0 Roger Smith ____________18.0 _ 28.0 _ 45.0 __ 30.5 _ 35.5 _ 90.0 ___ 60.5 _ 10.0 _ 78.0 Stebo _________________ 13.2 _ 34.3 _ 53.5 __ 33.5 _ 47.0 _ 87.0 ___ 37.0 _ 10.7 _ 97.0 RodneyS _______________12.5 _ 25.0 _ 37.5 __ 41.0 _ 43.5 _ 89.0 ___ 52.5 __ 4.5 _ 73.0 _____________________________________________________________________ High forecasts in bold, low forecasts in italic. Consensus is median, average of 6th and 7th ranked forecasts. Normal will be added later from NWS daily climate data snowfalls late in season. ... watch for updates to season totals and this post will migrate to new months as we move along .

First reports on anomalies and forecasts ... ________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ____ (7d) _______ --6.5 _--8.8 _--6.1__--14.9 _--3.8 _--9.2 ___--17.1 _+3.8 _--5.3 _8th __ (p14d) ___ --4.5 _--6.0 _--4.0 __ --8.0 _--1.0 _--2.0 ___--11.0 __0.0 _--3.5 _8th __ (p24d) ___ --3.0 _--3.5 _--2.5 __ --5.0 _--0.5 _--0.5 ___ --7.0 _+0.5 _--2.0

I have now updated all charts back on page five of the thread. They seem to match the latest spread sheet except that 0.2" more has fallen at BWI (3rd) so that resulted in one or two changes in the order as shown, almost everyone gaining 0.2" (losing 0.2" from total departures). I will move the last of the charts that I produced to the end of the thread when the contest seems to be done. Could be some more snow next week by the looks of some guidance.

Table of forecasts March 2019 FORECASTER ____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Stebo _______ (-5%) _____ +1.5 _+0.5 _--1.0 __--1.2 _+2.0 _+1.0 ___--2.5 _--2.0 _--1.5 wxallannj _______________ +1.2 _+0.8 _+0.2 __--1.0 _+2.3 _+1.5 ___+1.2 _+1.3 _--1.0 Scotty Lightning __________ +1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 __+1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ____0.0 _--0.5 _+0.5 hudsonvalley21 __________ +0.7 _+0.2 _+0.4 __--0.7 _+1.6 _+0.3 ___ --0.8 _--0.1 _--0.5 BKViking ____ (-8%) ______+0.2 _--1.1 _--1.2 __--1.2 _+1.7 _+1.3 ___ --1.8 _--1.4 _--1.3 ___ Normal ______________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ Consensus __________ --0.1 _--0.5 _--1.0 __ --1.2 _+0.6 _+0.3 ___--2.5 _--0.2 _--0.8 wxdude64 ______________ --0.1 _--0.3 _--0.3 __ --4.1 _+0.6 _+0.4 ___--3.9 _+0.2 _--1.1 Tom ___________________ --0.2 _--0.5 _--0.5 __--0.9 _--0.1 _--0.3 ___--0.5 _--0.3 _--0.7 RodneyS ________________--1.8 _--1.5 _--1.1 __--4.9 _--0.7 _--0.4 ___--4.6 _--0.1 _--0.8 Roger Smith _____________--1.8 _--2.4 _--2.2 __--0.9 _--1.5 _--0.7 ___--4.5 _+1.4 _--3.5 DonSutherland.1 _________ --2.0 _--1.7 _--1.3 __--5.2 _--1.4 __ 0.0 ___--3.5 _--0.2 _--0.1 RJay __________ (-5%) ___ --2.5 _--2.5 _--2.5 __--3.5 _--1.5 __ 0.0 ___--2.5 _--1.0 __0.0 ____________________________________________________________________________ Consensus for the eleven forecasts is sixth ranked or median value. Red and blue color codes identify warmest and coldest forecasts.

With the updated table of departures (back in the thread) you can see that it will be quite a finish to this contest. I have used up just about all my previously mentioned advantage snowfall but have about 7" left at MSP+GRB+YYZ and some at APN. However, other contenders have more stored up at other locations. So it will all come down to where it snows from now to end of the contest, probably anyone in the top six at present has a chance. If you're trying to work out your chances, if you're in the red and your competitors are also in the red, you can ignore that location, you will gain errors equally from now on. If you're black and they're red, you have twice that differential advantage (but it has to snow to get paid off). If you're both in the black, your advantage is the differential but it depends on whether it snows or not to claim it. YXU is probably not a factor, it likely won't reach minimum forecast (so all errors will change equally going forward). CLE, PAH and SDF may be similar but the lowest forecasts there are in some danger of losing an advantage if there are some snowfalls. For PAH and SDF the season is almost over though. (edit Mar 9th _ SDF has now passed two lowest forecasts).

I will update my tables back in the thread when any additions are made tomorrow, think it's possible this storm could intensify, draw in some colder air overnight, and surprise a few people by morning. But I am not counting on it.

The severe outbreak is more good than bad for snow later, it shows the system is rapidly deepening and so that should pull in colder air faster, some places that have flipped from snow to rain could go back to snow after 7 pm. Not much hope for anywhere southeast of I-95 but between there and current snowfall, could change back.

Low is currently just northwest of Augusta GA and heading east-north-east, should be near ORF by midnight. Some hope therefore of a phase change back to snow for some now getting rain, darkness and better access to colder air filtering into w PA should both be helpful factors. This could have been quite a heavy snowfall for the airports if colder high pressure had been in place ahead of the low, but could have a fairly good outcome anyway for some. Heavy thunderstorms likely for anyone south of an EZF to OCE line tonight, 1-2" rainfalls likely in s.e. VA.

--1.8 _ --2.4 _ --2.2 ___ --0.9 _ --1.5 _ --0.7 ___ --4.5 _ +1.4 _ --3.5

I could see this busting on the high side of forecasts quite easily, it's a weak complex of lows with marginal but not impossible uppers, so it won't do much warm advection. Current obs in central OH moderate to heavy snow. Fingers crossed for 2-5" outcomes in parts of MD at least.

If only the Founding Fathers had chosen Marquette as the national capital, then the panic room could be shut down forever.

Wait, what, it's not 1888? I knew I should have gotten a new calendar.