Roger Smith

Okay so that's 13 more named storms, a total of 14 counting the one already recorded in May ... care to mention how many will be hurricanes and of those, major hurricanes? I will enter your numbers scaled to the contest normal in the absence of any further numbers. Thanks. And in general, we have reached the deadline now, so a table of entries will be posted soon.

Table of forecasts for June, 2019 FORECASTER ____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA wxallannj _______________+1.9 _+1.7 _+1.2 __+0.6 _+2.3 _+0.3 ___--2.2 _+1.0 _+1.4 RodneyS ________________+1.6 _--0.1 _+0.4 __--2.2 _+1.8 _+1.1 ___--0.9 _--1.3 _+0.9 Tom ____________________+1.5 _+1.3 _+1.0 __+1.8 _+1.9 _+1.0 ___+0.8 _+0.5 _+0.5 Roger Smith ______________+1.5 __0.0 _--1.5 __--0.8 _+2.5 _+2.0 ___--2.0 _+1.5 _+0.7 Scotty Lightning ___________+1.0 _+1.0 _+0.5 __+0.5 _+1.0 _+1.0 ____0.0 _+1.0 __0.0 ____ Consensus __________ +0.9 _+0.5 _+0.3 __+0.6 _+1.2 _+1.0 ___--0.3 _+0.7 _+0.6 BKViking ___ (-2%) ________+0.7 _+1.0 _+1.0 __+0.6 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___+0.8 _+0.8 _+1.6 tplbge __________________ +0.7 _+0.5 _--0.6 __+1.6 _+1.4 _+0.3 ___--0.4 _--0.3 _--0.7 DonSutherland1 __________ +0.5 _+0.5 _+0.2 __+0.5 _+1.0 _+0.6 ___--0.3 _+0.7 _--0.2 hudsonvalley21 ___________+0.2 _+0.3 _--0.1 __+0.8 _+0.8 _+0.4 ___+0.2 _--0.2 _+0.2 ____ Normal ______________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __0.0 ____0.0 __0.0 __0.0 _____0.0 __0.0 __0.0 wxdude64 _______________ --0.1 _--0.2 _--0.4 __--1.3 _+1.4 _+0.9 ___--1.6 _+0.6 _+2.1 _________________________________________________________________ warmest and coldest forecasts are color coded ... normal is below all forecasts for ATL and IAH. With ten forecasts, the consensus is the mean of fifth and sixth ranked (rounded upwards).

Reasonably good turnout for a first time contest, I for one would not mind seeing an extension through the weekend with a final push for more entries. There's no real "tells" on tonight's GFS that's for sure. But then again, June 1936 was not a very hot month. Little known fact, there were actually some record lows a few days before the big east coast July 1936 heat wave. I think you'll find some for BWI daily max earlier in the month.

April 8, 2024 ... long totality from west TX northeast to upstate NY and Quebec. Bound to be some cloud along that line but should be within reach of most people on the forum with a bit of planning (my target would be west TX, unless a week in advance it looks like a big high over Quebec then I can go there instead).

It's all good, you are not late (deadline 06z) ... My pathetic attempt follows ... +1.5 _ 0.0 _ -1.5 __ --0.8 _ +2.5 _ +2.0 ___ --2.0 _ +1.5 _ +0.7 Good luck and welcome to tplbge.

The deadline for entries will be extended through the weekend of June 1-2 to encourage a larger field. Those who have already entered may edit current forecasts during this time. Absolute deadline June 3rd 0600z, or earlier if the current slowly developing system depicted on NHS guidance map near Belize gets a more definite forecast for named storm activity. Thanks for entering.

I see there's a new invest candidate in the western Caribbean. The seasonal forecast contest will remain open past deadline tonight through the weekend or until that storm gets a more definite forecast posted. See two posts back for the link to the contest.

I wonder if another older analogue might be 1911? There was a very warm May in the east followed by one of the worst heat waves on record in early July. It was a low solar year back in the last weak solar long-term period before the current one (1905-07 peak considered weak, 1917 peak moderate strong).

Would expect best chances of tornadic cells about 30-50 miles south of ORD as remnants of occluded front interact with Lake Michigan and extensive east winds over northern IN southern MI to set up barrier to northward advection of tropical air mass, max risk somewhere around Galesburg to Streator to Kankakee.

As always, predict the anomalies (F deg) relative to 1981-2010 normal values for DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA (deadline 06z June 1st).

Four Seasons scoring update (Spring March, April, May) Rankings from winter with spring added in second line for each forecaster east, central not counted in total as c/e is counted. ... Consensus and Normal ranks do not affect forecaster ranks. * indicates tied rankings (note format is based on low score total ranking) (numbers indicate ranks, 1 = first or highest total, etc) __ a perfect score would be 12 in this format. FORECASTER ____________DCA_NYC_BOS __east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA__west__all nine__TOTAL RodneyS _________winter___8 __ 8 __ 3 __ ( 8) ___ 9 __ 3*__ 4 __ ( 4) __ 5 ___ 6 __ 6 __ 5 ___ 5 ____ 5 ______ 67 ________________ spring __ 4* __1 __ 3 __ ( 4) ___ 1 __2 __ 1*__( 1) __ 1 ___ 1 __ 2 __1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ______19 __ (86) DonSutherland.1 __ winter __ 4 __ 5 __10 __ ( 6) ___5 __ 2 __ 3 __ ( 3) __ 3 ___ 7 __ 2 __ 2 ___ 1 ____ 2 ______ 46 ________________ spring __ 7 __ 2 __ 4 __ ( 7) ___ 6 __ 8 __ 1*__( 2) __ 4*___3 __ 1 __ 3 ___ 2 ____ 2 ______ 43 __ (89) wxallannj ________ winter __ 3 __ 4 __ 1 __ ( 2) ___10 __1 __ 1 __ ( 1) __1 ___ 3 __ 8 __ 7 ___ 7 ____ 1 ______47 ________________ spring __ 3 __ 9 __ 5 __ ( 6) ___ 2 __ 3 __ 7 __ ( 3) __ 6 ___ 7 __ 3 __ 5 ___ 5 ____ 4 ______ 59 __ (106) ___ Consensus ____winter__ 5 __ 6 __ 6 __ ( 5) ___ 6 __ 7 __ 6*__( 6) __ 6 ___6*__ 6 __ 5 ___5 ___ 7 ______ 71 ________________ spring __ 1 __ 2 __ 4*__ ( 1) ___ 2 __ 4 __ 5 __ ( 2) __ 2 ___ 4 __ 5 __ 4 ___ 4 ____ 3 ______ 40 __ (111) hudsonvalley21 ____winter __5 __ 2 __ 7 __ ( 4) ___ 8 __ 5 __ 6 __ ( 5) __ 4 ___ 4* __4 __ 3 ___ 3 ____ 3 ______ 54 ________________ spring __ 6 __ 3 __ 1 __ ( 1) ___ 7 __ 1 __ 5 __ ( 4) __ 2 ___11 __ 6 __ 8 ___ 8 ____ 6 ______64 __ (118) Roger Smith ______winter __1 __ 11 __ 4 __( 5) ___11 _ 6 __ 2 __ ( 7) __ 7 ___ 2 __11__ 1 ___ 2 ____ 6 ______ 64 ________________ spring __ 9 __ 5*__ 9 __ ( 9) ___ 4 _10 __ 9 __ ( 9) __ 9 ___ 2 __ 5 __ 9 ___ 3 ____ 7 ______ 81 __ (145) Scotty Lightning ___winter___2 __ 1 __ 2 __ ( 3) ___ 3 __ 3*__ 5 __ ( 2) __ 2 __11 __10 __10 __11 ____ 4 ______ 64 ________________ spring __ 8 __ 8 __ 2 __ ( 8) ___ 9 __ 4 __ 4 __ ( 7) __ 8 __ 10 __ 9 __ 6 ___ 9 ____ 9 ______ 85 __ (149) wxdude64 ________winter __ 9 __ 5 __ 9 __ ( 9) ___ 4 __ 8 __ 7 ___ ( 6) __ 9 ___ 9 __ 7 __ 9 __10 ____10_____100 ________________ spring __ 2 __ 7 __ 6 __ ( 3) ___ 3 __ 7 __ 6 ___ ( 6) __ 4* ___ 4 __ 4 __ 2 __ 4 ____ 3 ______ 52 __ (152) Tom ____________ winter __11 __ 6 __11 __(11) ___ 1 __11 __ 9 __ ( 9) __11 ___10 __ 3 __ 4 ___ 8 _____11______96 ________________ spring __ 4*__ 5*__ 7 __ ( 5) ___ 5 __ 6 __ 3 ___( 4) __ 3 ____ 6 __ 7 __ 8 ___ 6 _____ 5 _____ 65 __ (161) BKViking _________winter __ 7 __ 3 __ 5 __ ( 5) ___ 6 __10 __ 8 __ (11) __ 6 ___4*__ 9 __11___ 9 ____ 7 ______ 85 ________________ spring __ 1 __ 4 __ 8 __ ( 2) ___ 8 __ 5 __ 8 __ ( 8) __ 7 ___ 8 __ 8 __ 5 ___ 7 ____ 7 ______ 76 __ (161) ___ Normal _______winter___9 __ 3 __ 8 __ ( 7) ___ 3 __ 7*__ 9*__ ( 6) __ 6 ___10 __ 3 __12 ___ 9 ____ 7 ______ 86 ________________ spring __11 __ 8 __ 4 __ ( 9) ___ 4*__11 __ 3 __ (9) __ 9 ____11 __ 3 __ 9 ___ 8 ____ 10 _____ 91 __ (177) Stebo ____________winter__ 6 __ 7 __ 6 __ ( 7) ___ 2 __ 9 __10 __ ( 8) __ 8 ___ 8 __ 5 ___ 6 ___ 6 ____ 8 _____ 81 ________________ spring __10 __10__10 __ (10) ___11 __9 __11 __(11) __10 ___ 9 __11 __11 __11 ____10 _____123 __ (204) RJay ____________winter___10 __10 __ 8 __(10) ___ 7 __ 7 __11 __ (10)__10 ___ 1 __ 1 ___ 8 ___4 ____ 9 _____ 86 ________________ spring __11 __ 11__11 __ (11) __10 __11__10 __(10) __11 ___ 5 __10 __10 ___10 ___ 11 ____121 __ (207)

I came to very similar conclusions from a different research perspective (summary posted in whatever we call the main forum, I call it the Quiet Zone). Would not be surprised if there is some exceptional heat at some point in July or August as you seem to be implying. Good luck with your forecast, if you're right, I'm right.

FWIW I foresee a season that has an active coastal track similar to the peak years of the mid 1950s, as I think we will see a summer pattern similar to years like 1953 to 1955. And here's a contest you can enter in the main forum (a.k.a. the Quiet Room) ... Posting a notice in all regional forums -- 2019 hurricane (all named tropical storms) seasonal forecast contest open in tropical headquarters forum. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/52312-2019-hurricane-all-named-tropical-storms-forecast-contest/

Posting a notice in all regional forums -- 2019 hurricane (all named tropical storms) seasonal forecast contest open in tropical headquarters forum. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/52312-2019-hurricane-all-named-tropical-storms-forecast-contest/

Posting a notice in all regional forums -- 2019 hurricane (all named tropical storms) seasonal forecast contest open in tropical headquarters forum. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/52312-2019-hurricane-all-named-tropical-storms-forecast-contest/

Hello, I imagine your forum would start a 2019 hurricane season thread some time, so to get this announcement into an appropriate thread I have started one for you. Meanwhile ... Posting a notice in all regional forums -- 2019 hurricane (all named tropical storms) seasonal forecast contest open in tropical headquarters forum. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/52312-2019-hurricane-all-named-tropical-storms-forecast-contest/

Posting a notice in all regional forums -- 2019 hurricane (all named tropical storms) seasonal forecast contest open in tropical headquarters forum. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/52312-2019-hurricane-all-named-tropical-storms-forecast-contest/

Posting a notice in all regional forums -- 2019 hurricane (all named tropical storms) seasonal forecast contest open in tropical headquarters forum. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/52312-2019-hurricane-all-named-tropical-storms-forecast-contest/

Posting a notice in all regional forums -- 2019 hurricane (all named tropical storms) seasonal forecast contest open in tropical headquarters forum. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/52312-2019-hurricane-all-named-tropical-storms-forecast-contest/

Posting a notice in all regional forums -- 2019 hurricane (all named tropical storms) seasonal forecast contest open in tropical headquarters forum. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/52312-2019-hurricane-all-named-tropical-storms-forecast-contest/

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/52312-2019-hurricane-all-named-tropical-storms-forecast-contest/ 2019 tropical season forecast contest thread open.

Well, for the reason you mention, I do see some chance that the result will be based on a steady humid heat of less than record breaking intensity, but some factors lead me to believe this may gradually transition to more memorable heat wave numbers by late July into August. I realize it has been very wet in parts of the Great Lakes and northeast, however, it would only take perhaps 2-3 weeks of warm dry weather in late June to set up a modified drought condition that could lead to 100+ days. Most memorable heat wave summers tend to come with pulses of record breaking heat and intervening near normal dry weather from a Pacific source. I guess that various factors mentioned by the two previous posters might argue for there being a more humid form of sustained heat in this case. The most likely form of bust for this forecast would be near normal temperatures and very wet. This would happen if heights don't build as expected but an interior western trough remains anchored over CO-NM.

I don't have any elaborate presentation prepared, just this bare bones condensed version of research model findings that indicate a very hot summer possible for most of the lower 48, if any region escapes it would be Montana-Idaho-PAC NW. Expecting this heat to build slowly in June and perhaps not affect anomalies that much until July and August. Could then turn into one of the all-time memorable heat wave summers. The usual precip anomaly pattern for such a summer is above normal rainfall in some parts of the northwest U.S., isolated portions of northern plains, northern Great Lakes (mostly on Canadian side) and into Quebec and northern New England. Also pockets of above normal rainfall likely from TX to FL. Otherwise below normal to drought conditions in parts of the northeast, Ohio valley, central plains. Somewhat more active tropical season than last year, hopefully nothing to match Michael's specific ferocity or going back a year Harvey's rainfall production, but potential for one or two destructive landfalls in the Gulf region, and by September in the eastern seaboard. Just wondering then if others see this potential or do you have other ideas about the outcome for summer 2019?

(edited previous content) 0730z - Reading reports on line of major damage to Jefferson City, MO and nearby Fort Leonard Wood, from large tornado. Also hearing that the Joplin storm resulted in at least three fatalities.

What kind of North Atlantic tropical cyclone season do you predict for 2019? Our annual contest asks you to predict the total number of storms, and break it down by months. As you know, the "count" is total number of named storms, then total number of those that become hurricanes, and finally total number of hurricanes that become major (cat-3 or stronger). In 2017 the final count was 17/10/6 and our contest winner was Rockchalk83. In 2018 the final count was 15/8/2 and the contest winner was "A few Universes below normal" closely followed by UIWWildThing. Also in 2018, contest normal and the NHC mid-range forecast scored higher than any contest entrants. The rules are fairly simple. You need to post a seasonal total by the deadline which I am setting as June 1st but this could be extended a few days to increase the participation as long as no new named storms appear in early June. Your seasonal total should include any developments in May, and just as I thought of starting the contest, STS Andrea has appeared. The current forecasts for that cap it at 35 knots, so the count is already 1 0 0 for May. If there is further activity in May, that will be counted in the seasonal total too. But you don't have to predict anything for May, just add 1 0 0 for May in your forecast line. Your seasonal total will be adjusted if the monthly totals for your forecast when added up match your seasonal total but the 1 0 0 May portion changes. Contest normal will also change as that is based on the assumption that the 1989-2018 average used to create it applies to the defined season (this May activity is assumed to be extra to the normal values although May activity is becoming a fairly common occurrence recently). In 2017, all entrants gave monthly predictions and almost all left them unedited, but the contest rules allow you to submit these up to 06z of the first of each month, or to revise those already submitted by that deadline. Note, there is no requirement for your monthly numbers to add up to your seasonal numbers and you can use decimal points to express uncertainty. In 2018, one entrant (the eventual contest winner) submitted only a seasonal forecast. When that happens, I take a scaled version of contest normal that adds up to the entrant's seasonal totals. Those were fairly similar in that case so the entrant was playing off the contest normal basically, reduced by one IIRC. I am going to post my forecast mostly as a guide to how your forecast should appear (not the numbers but the format) ... Roger Smith ____ 18 12 4 ____ (May) 1 0 0 _ (Jun) 1 1 0 _ (Jul) 1 1 0 __ (Aug) 4 3 1 __ (Sep) 6 4 2 __ (Oct) 4 3 1 __ (Nov-Dec) 1 0 0 (this assumes a result of 1 0 0 May, would be adjusted to 19 12 4 if 2 0 0 or 19 13 4 if 2 1 0) The following are contest normals (adjusted for the May 1 0 0 ) and the current (amended June 5th when one storm and one hurricane added to April forecast) CSU and NHC mid-range forecasts below them. Note that the monthly forecasts for these are scaled down versions of the contest normals, they are not actual forecasts, only seasonal totals were predicted. This is for contest scoring comparisons. I am also going to track NHC high end of range as I suspect that may do better than their mid-range. I am not totally sure if their forecasts include the May activity or are meant to apply to June to November only, so having the high end forecast in play will perhaps cover that ambiguity. Contest Normal __16 8 3 ____ (May) 1 0 0 __ (Jun) 1 0 0 _ (Jul) 1 0 0 _ (Aug) 4 2 1 __ (Sep) 6 4 1 __ (Oct) 3 2 1 _ (Nov-Dec) 0 0 0 NHC (midrange) _ 12 6 3 ____ (May) 1 0 0 __ (Jun) 1 0 0 _ (Jul) 1 0 0 _ (Aug) 3 2 1 __ (Sep) 4 3 1 __ (Oct) 2 1 1 _ (Nov-Dec) 0 0 0 NHC (high end) __15 8 4 ____ (May) 1 0 0 __ (Jun) 1 0 0 _ (Jul) 1 0 0 _ (Aug) 4 2 1 __ (Sep) 5 4 2 __ (Oct) 3 2 1 _ (Nov-Dec) 0 0 0 CSU (Junel fcst) __13 6 2 ____ (May) 1 0 0 __ (Jun) 1 0 0 _ (Jul) 1 0 0 _ (Aug) 3 2 1 __ (Sep) 5 3 1 __ (Oct) 2 1 0 _ (Nov-Dec) 0 0 0 Scoring for the contest is as follows: 50% of the score is based on the seasonal. You start with 50 points and in each category, you lose half of (1 point per error plus that number squared). Example, you predict 16 storms, the actual is 19, your error is (3 + 3 squared)/2 = 12/2 = 6. If you had similar errors for hurricanes and majors, your total score would then be 32/50. The other 50% of the score is based on your monthly forecasts starting with June and ending with Nov-Dec. These are worth 4, 6, 12, 16, 10 and 2 points in order from June to Nov-Dec. Then the errors reduce your possible score in the same way as the seasonal formula, except that June, July and Nov-Dec go with half the reductions (in other words, you lose points at half the rate of the other more active months). In the past few years, highest scores in the contest have been close to 90 (dropping to 84 last year) and seasonal scores of 48 to 50 have been achieved. A good monthly set has earned scores totalling 41-43 points. Good luck if you enter. The deadline will be made more precise around June 1st and all entrants can edit up to the eventual deadline without notice, you can assume that I won't be copying down or storing any forecasts until a firm deadline is posted in the thread and up to that firm deadline, so no need to post new numbers, just edit the old ones. Once a table of entries appears, your numbers are set for the seasonal and June portions but you have the option of posting revised monthly numbers at any point during the contest before monthly deadlines. Late monthly revisions will be penalized at a rate of 10% per day but will not be valid after any named storm is declared in the month.