Roger Smith

The strong side of this eye is about to hit the Cape (Space coast) in about 2h from now, would say the eye is now 60% inland with the center about 20 miles south of Melbourne FL.

I don't see much "radar degradation" and the eye is still about 50% over the ocean. Is landfall when the eyewall hits the coast or when the center of the eye hits the coast?

Just starting to cross the warmer core of Gulf stream, I would say Nicole reaches at least low end cat-2 at some point tonight, possibly mid-range cat-2, and also performs more of a curve north than model consensus, earlier was asking people what they thought of a grazing coastal track, possibly some inland movement now probable, but I think Nicole will try to stay over warm water as long as it can, could mean a landfall Jupiter to Melbourne. Never all that far inland, heads up NNW with enough of circulation over water to retain cat-1 intensity for quite a while, strong TS near Georgia coast in 36-42h. Long duration fetch means storm surge issues must be taken very seriously. This is now almost as strong as Sandy approaching NJ and Staten Island comes to mind. Were not the storm surge forecasts lowballed there? Or did people not take accurate warnings seriously? One or other as I recall.

This will be a complex interaction and I don't think one should take 48-72h guidance with its usual reasonable precision either. Once this makes the turn and seeks out the oncoming Colorado low, all bets are off.

How about a similar temperature profile with less snow? Something like -2, +2, +1 for the three months. Here's something interesting too, this November in western Europe resembles Nov 2009 to some extent. Later Greenland blocking potential?

Thanks, BUF had about 1.4" of rain and 6.2" of snow (only on 10th), highs in 50s to 32F on 10th.

Does anyone have access to weather records in PA or upstate NY from Nov 9, 1913? On that date, a strong low formed over GA and tracked north into southern ON, creating the northerly winds over Lake Huron that caused a huge loss of shipping on night of 9-10th. Would be especially interested in total rainfalls 8th-10th. Temps (based on Toronto) probably in mid-60s dropping to 30s by 10th.

This Saturday event could be epic but perhaps a bit further west? I see strong chances of a phaser that drops a quick 4-6 inches of rain maybe in ePA and central upstate NY. Closer to 2" for NYC metro, peak wind gusts perhaps into 60s. If it tracks over western LI though then the NYC metro could get the 4-6" rains. There was a "snow hurricane" in autumn 1804, I don't think the air mass is quite cold enough to wrap around the phased storm that quickly here, in fact I see better chances of the actual final result being a lower Great Lakes phaser like Nov 1913 to some extent. The mid-latitude low was back in eastern UT last time I looked at maps, maybe it's into w CO now. Lots of cold air available, it's about -15 C in most of western Canada today. I have -5 C here and a fresh 8-10" snow cover, full on winter here after so many weeks of way above normal ending Oct 20th. We have not been above normal since then.

Are you not entertained? Anyway what I really expect is a fairly normal winter for your region with perhaps one good wintry spell and a brief snow covering from one big storm, if you're thinking 2015-16 analogue, sort of like that only I don't think this December will be anywhere near as warm as Dec 2015, in fact it could be where the wintry spell happens. A better analogue might be 1963-64.

At the risk of over-simplifying some rather complicated constructs in my own research, the energy level concept can be taken to mean potential energy for storm intensity following a theory that atmospheric variations are partly governed by external astronomical factors, notably lunar, operating within an interference pattern type of grid in the atmosphere. This interference pattern has been postulated to consist of nine focal "timing lines" which can oscillate but at equilibrium are located around the hemisphere at equal separations, starting from the first (arbitrarily defined) timing line which corresponds to the geomagnetic feature known as the invariant arc (where compass north is due north) but smoothed out and running approximately Beaufort Sea s.s.e. through central northern Canada to western Great Lakes, South Carolina and on towards west Africa (all of this grid is postulated to be reflected in the southern hemisphere; the magnetic poles are taken as "meteorological north poles" although a separate set of assumptions is required to handle polar climate outcomes in better detail. So the other timing lines run parallel to that one, you would be located fairly close to timing line 9 which drops out of the western arctic through BC, Idaho, w Colorado into e NM and then towards the GOM. The timing lines are numbered (arbitrarily again) in an eastward direction. ... So the energy level hypothesis in its raw form states that storm development near these nine timing lines will depend on an interaction between lunar tidal forces (moving through the interference pattern) and conventional meteorological considerations which involve placing ridges and troughs in this grid, also based on certain assumptions about solar system magnetic field interactions with our atmosphere. The net result is that one can forecast at least in terms of statistical averages how the circulation will respond and within that, using principles that every other type of model also uses, generating storm track intensity predictions. Split flow outcomes in this model will create separate low pressure areas on timing lines but they will not be aligned north-south, but along the curving grid lines of the model, so that for example on some occasions a low moving through west Texas could be in phase in this model with another low in the eastern GOM or in central BC or the Yukon. You could find a much more detailed summary over at the Net-weather forum in their science sub-forum, under my name (same as here except that to create an account I had to use my middle initial so I am Roger J Smith on net-weather). As I say, this is a theory under development, and not widely known, certainly not accepted (for whatever that's worth in this world, acceptance of certain ideas and rejection of others now appearing to be some sort of cosmic circus and of little interest to an old guy with better things to do than butt heads with scientific authorities).

Warm water north of Australia, the unusual activity of caterpillars, and a high pitched noise that only I can hear, all combine with the dew point at Coral Harbour and the position of Neptune to prove almost beyond doubt that this winter will be either average or not. Average winters can stress out climate scientists and many others in media who may run out of stories and turn to covering actual news. One spokesperson who wished to remain anonymous told me that "the last average winter, 2016-17, led to severe depression of many in those lines of work, as well as a huge die off of coastal hugging striped crabs which depend on variable weather to survive." What can one expect in an average winter? Average weather. Day after day after day of temperatures not far from normal, as well as drizzly mixtures of sleet and whatever else can (and will) fall at certain elevations. How can you avoid this outcome? Move away from certain elevations, either go higher for snow, or lower for rain. This was the knowledge of the elders of the first people to populate the land, but it has been lost in a haze of phones that drive cars and things that vibrate to open doors. Those are, by the way, changing our weather at an alarming rate. Since the weather only changed around the time of the i-phone, it is reasonable to assume that i-phones are controlling the weather. At least, this is the working assumption of the Institute for Advanced Studies of Stuff You Cannot Understand (IASSYCU) located in Fromage Falls, just outside Canada's capital city, Honkerville. If you would like more information, please contact Gerard E. Neverin at IASSYCU or phone anyone at random and ask them what they think.

Current satellite image reminds me of an eagle attacking a school of tuna, all that's needed is a bun and some mayo. Anyone else getting the sense that Nicole may not really make a landfall in FL but may just graze the east coast of the state and move towards coastal GA? http://www.weather.gc.ca/data/satellite/goes_eusa_1070_100.jpg

Although Nov 1-7 was the warmest first week of November (avg 64.57), it was not quite the warmest week entirely within November, that distinction remains with Nov 3-9, 1975 (65.57). Nov 4-10 1975 was also warmer at 65.07. Then Nov 5-11 2020 was tied third in one decimal (64.64) although third ahead of this month's entry in two decimals. If one considered weeks with any November days in them, then Oct 26 to Nov 1, 1946 leads with 67.86. Nov 2 to 8 2022 will not set weekly records as the record values (also from 1975) are only marginally lower for mean, and higher for average max, than yesterday's result and today is considerably cooler than the 1st which it would replace in the average. Based on the early climate report, the average max for the week Nov 2-8 is 70.43 and the average min is 55.71, the mean therefore is 63.07.

Although Nov 1-7 was the warmest first week of November (avg 64.57), it was not quite the warmest week entirely within November, that distinction remains with Nov 3-9, 1975 (65.57). Nov 4-10 1975 was also warmer at 65.07. Then Nov 5-11 2020 was tied third in one decimal (64.64) although third ahead of this month's entry in two decimals. If one considered weeks with any November days in them, then Oct 26 to Nov 1, 1946 leads with 67.86. Nov 2 to 8 2022 will not set weekly records as the record values (also from 1975) are only marginally lower for mean, and higher for average max, than yesterday's result and today is considerably cooler than the 1st which it would replace in the average. Based on the early climate report, the average max for the week Nov 2-8 is 70.43 and the average min is 55.71, the mean therefore is 63.07.

Scoring tables adjusted again as NHC seems more confident Nicole will become a cat-1 hurricane.

Here's an update of my earlier list of all November days that reached or exceeded 75F at NYC in November ... and an interesting added fact, there had been 29 days up to 2021, and now it's 32, but those were often distributed two or three apiece to warm Novembers, so the number of months of November with a 75+ day was 21 and is now 22. Years that had such days (and the number) are 1879 (1), 1914 (1), 1929 (1), 1936 (1), 1938 (1), 1950 (2), 1961 (2), 1968 (1), 1971 (1), 1973 (1), 1974 (2), 1975 (3), 1982 (2), 1985 (1), 1987 (1), 1990 (1), 1993 (1), 1994 (1), 2001 (1), 2003 (2), 2020 (2), 2022 (3) and add 1998 (1) for the lone December 75+ reading. The full list of November days at NYC (Central Park) that have exceeded 75F, organized by days of the month and in order where more than one. For November days without one, the record high is listed. The warmest value shown on days with entries will of course also be the record for that date. 1st _ 84 (1950), 81 (1974), 77 (1982 and 2003) 2nd_ 83 (1950), 79 (1982), 77 (1968), 76 (1929), 75 (1971 and 2001) 3rd _ 79 (2003), 78 (1990), 75 (1936) 4th _ 78 (1975), 77 (1961 and 1987), 76 (1914, 1974 and 1994) 5th _ 78 (1961), 76 (2022) 6th _ 75 (2022) broke records of (74 1948, 2015) 7th _ 78 (1938), 77 (2022) 8th _ 76 (1975), 75 (2020) 9th _ 75 (1975, 2020) 10th_____ (74 2020) 11th______ (74 1949) 12th_ 76 (1879) warmest since is 73 1909, then 72 1912, 70 1927&38, 69 1964, 68 1982, 2020 13th_____ (73 1931) 14th_____ (72 1993) 15th_ 80 (1993), 77 (1973) 16th_____ (72 1928) 17th_____ (71 1953) 18th_____ (73 1921,28) 19th_____ (72 1921) 20th_ 77 (1985), (four years had 74, 1934,42,48,91) 21st_____ (74 1900) warmest since 1900 is 72 1931 22nd_____ (72 1931) 23rd_____ (72 1931) 24th_____ (73 1979) 25th_____ (73 1979) 26th_____ (67 1946) 27th_____ (72 1896) (warmest since 1896 is 64 on six occasions) 28th_____ (70 2011) 29th_____ (69 1990) 30th_____ (70 1991) (All December) 7th _ 75 (1998) (4th 1998, 74; 4th 1982 and 24th 2015 72; 6th 2001 and 22nd 2013 71, 1st 2006, 5th 2001, 10th 1946 and 29th 1984 70) are the only other Dec maxima 70 or higher. _________________ __________________ ====================

In 1861, Hurricane 6 moved up the east coast Nov 1-3 and brought higher tidal levels for New York harbor than for many years previous, and did other damage in the region up to and including Boston. I have no source of rainfall for New York City that far back, but Toronto had a large amount of rain Nov 1-2 (over 3 inches) indicating that this hurricane must have phased with a GL low in the vicinity of upstate NY. This storm is also known as the Expedition Hurricane because of its impact on a Civil War battle further south. Another possible concept to keep in mind is the explosive deepening of the Nov 9-10 1913 storm which moved from Georgia to southern Ontario and created the hurricane force northerly winds that caused a shipping disaster on Lakes Huron and Erie (mostly Huron), the storm being labelled the White Hurricane at the time as blizzard conditions developed on its western flank. It was quite warm on the east coast and even as far inland as Toronto during the approach of this rapidly deepening low (somewhat analogous to the Jan 1978 storm over the GL).

Well it will still set records, lots of wiggle room for a lower minimum today. By the way, worth noting perhaps, the mean maxima for the next five weekly intervals (2nd-8th to 6th-12th) are all higher than today's new record, in the 72-74 range. These were set in 1975 (first three) and 2020 (last two). Also of interest, the wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald occurred on the night of Nov 10-11, the 1975 early Nov warm spell ended on the 11th although the rest of the month had a few milder intervals.

Looking at the early climate report for NYC, 77/68, that 68 if it lasts to midnight would be the highest minimum for any November day replacing 67 on Nov 2, 1971. Any thoughts as to whether it could fall a bit before midnight? (Later edit, low for the day at midnight was 54 F, have adjusted the following) ... At the moment, this is the state of play for the weekly averages Nov 1-7 (as I reported yesterday, Oct 31-Nov 6 now has a tied mean max of 70.0 and new high means (63.5) and mean minimum (57.0): week of ____ warmest weeks ______ also near top (2022 breaks first of these) Nov 1-7 ____ (max) 71.71 _ 2022__ 69.57_1975, 2015, 68.71 _ 1950, 68.29 _ 1938, 67.86 _ 1961,82, 67.71 _ 1994, 67.43_1974 Nov 1-7 ____ (min) 57.42 _ 2022__ 55.29_2015, 54.14_1974, 53.86_1938, 53.71_1975, 53.43_2003, 53.29_1948 Nov 1-7 ___ (mean) 64.57 _2022__ 62.43_2015, 61.64_1975, 61.07_1938, 60.79 _1974, 60.14 _1961, 60.07 _1994,2003 _ the mean minimum did drop considerably but this was still be the warmest week for both mean and min. This post was edited as the values changed at end of day. Meanwhile ... coldest week Nov 1-7 was in 1879 (40.29, 34.64, 29.00) and this came after near-record warmth in October and a later record high on Nov 12th of 76 still standing, and a number of other daily records that existed until broken in relatively recent years, notably 73F on Nov 15th first broken in 1973 (77F) then by the 80F in 1993, and also 64F on Dec 11 broken in 2021.

Nicole has formed and current forecasts take it to the boundary of strong tropical storm or hurricane by about Thursday. I will hold off correcting the scoring table until it either does or does not reach hurricane status. Although a major hurricane seems remote, this is after all 2022. The result of Nicole appearing at all is that cheese007 now moves into a slight lead in the contest (current score 99.5, hotair 98.5, Torch Tiger 96.5) but if Nicole reached hurricane status that would change to 98.5, 96.5 and 97.5 for these three). If it became a major hurricane, Torch Tiger would take over the lead at 98.5, cheese007 would drop to 97.5 and hotair 96.5.) More updates when the actual outcome is known.

Would say plenty of time for Nicole (just named) to make a more impactful run closer to the coast. I don't think models will settle on a track until maybe Thursday. This pattern is so warm, I feel it should set up more interaction between Nadine and GL low.

This forecast (as always with me) is based on a study of index values for presumed similar external drivers. Also what's somewhat different about my approach is that you just get a long-range forecast, no graphics about this, that or the other. My basic forecast is a rather average outcome, perhaps a bit on the snowy side of normal for many eastern and central locations, with severe cold intrusions possible at all times due to conditions already developing in the west-central subarctic. So in general, would expect much of the time to average within 5-8 deg of normal with brief much colder intervals possible, in eastern and central regions. Western regions will feel the impact of the cold spells as is already evident, more frequently and for longer intervals. There is potential for some very severe or extreme storm events this winter. Energy levels are ranked in the highest 10%, especially around dates of new and full moons. These severe storms could provide blizzards in some cases, most likely to affect the Midwest and Great Lakes regions, but not ruling out the northeast or even mid-Atlantic states. West coast rainfalls will likely be above normal in parts of central and northern CA, Oregon, WA and sw BC but a colder than average regime may cut off some rainfalls turning them to snow as part of expected above normal snowfalls inland WA and much of BC. This snow anomaly will probably extend southeast into the central Rockies with the storm track often running OR-sUT-nNM before recurving. Some analogue years have had very mild spells in winter (east, central) and brief cold spells, but those managed to deliver on heavy snowfall events from few opportunities. I think this winter will tend to run closer to a balance of mild and cold and more frequent opportunities for snow. If any of the three winter months is to be much colder than average, I would pick December as most likely. Good luck to all who dare to issue these outlooks. I've been reading others and felt there was perhaps enough of a difference with mine to add it to the mix, although I see certain overlaps with some of them too.

As a prelude to expected warmest week of Nov 1-7, can confirm from my tracking that Oct 31-Nov 6 now has new records, mean max of 70.0 is a tie, mean daily 63.50 and mean min 57.0 break existing records. This is based on the provisional values for today, the mean daily and mean min are probably safe if the current reported min of 66 falls a few degrees. (58 for the tie mean minimum) Also the minimum of 64F on 5th broke the daily record of 63F set in 1938 and today's (6th) now confirmed value ties the record 66F from 2015 (several have already posted that 75F is a new daily record max, yesterday and today add two to the former total of 29 days of 75+ in November at NYC). The monthly record high minimum was 67F on Nov 2, 1971.

I have now corrected these entries as they have been confirmed -- week of Oct 31 to Nov 6 ties or breaks records as follows: Mean maximum 70.0, ties 1950, 1961 Mean daily 63.5, new record, breaks 62.57 (1974) Mean minimum 57.0, new record, breaks 55.86 (1974) _ a lower temp by midnight can still break this record, a tie would require 58 F. I expect Nov 1-7 to break records also. (later edit, Nov 1-7 new records set, in tables also ... 71.71, 65.57, 59.43 worth noting that all of Nov 2-8 to 6-12 have higher average maxima from 1975 (2-8, 3-9, 4-10) and 2020 (5-11, 6-12).

BWI: 29.1 DCA: 23.5 IAD: 31.1 RIC: 15.2 (LYH 26.4) BUF: 2000000000000000000000000007