Roger Smith

+2.0 _ +2.3 _ +2.7 _ +2.5 _ +0.2 _ +0.2 _ +3.5 _ +1.7 _ +0.4

Posting a general reminder to NYC forum members that temperature forecast contest deadline is approaching.

Final scoring for September 2021 _ scoring is based on final anomalies in previous post. _ BOS currently scored from max 60 progression, where marked ^ (most scores are boosted). The highest raw scores were 44. _ ORD scored from max 60 progression, where marked ^ (all scores are boosted at least slightly). The highest raw score was only 38. _ scoring remains in forecast table order until final. FORECASTER ___________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east_ ORD_ATL_IAH__cent _c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA__west___TOTALS RJay _____________________96 _ 88 _ 50^__ 234 __ 50^_ 80 _ 60 __ 190 __ 424 ___50 _ 90 _ 66 __ 206____ 630 DonSutherland1 _________92 _ 88 _ 35^__ 215 ___60^_80 _ 88 __ 228 __ 443 __ 26 _ 94 _ 66 __ 186 ____ 629 BKViking ________________ 96 _ 96 _ 40^__ 232 __ 35^_ 74 _ 74 __ 183 __ 415 __ 44 _ 96 _ 70 __ 210 ____ 625 RodneyS _________________64 _ 76 _ 60^__ 200 __ 55^_ 78 _ 68 __ 201 __ 401 __ 46 _ 82 _ 74 __ 202 ____ 603 hudsonvalley21 __________94 _ 92 _ 25^__ 211 ___ 35^_ 46 _ 70 __ 151 __ 362 __ 40 _ 92 _ 84 __ 216 ____ 578 ___ Consensus ___________90 _ 88 _ 33^__ 211 __ 35^_ 76 _ 68 __ 179 __ 390 __ 40 _ 80 _ 68 __ 188 ____ 578 Scotty Lightning _________96 _ 98 _ 50^__ 244 __ 50^_ 50 _ 50 __ 150 __ 394 __ 40 _ 70 _ 66 __ 176____ 570 so_whats_happening ____ 96 _100_60^__256 __ 25^_ 64 _ 60 __ 149 __ 405 __ 36 _ 76 _ 52 __ 164 ____ 569 Tom ______________________88 _ 88 _ 30^__ 206 __ 40^_ 62 _ 74 __ 176 ___382 __30 _ 82 _ 70 __ 182 ____ 564 ___ Normal _______________ 84 _ 78 _ 18 __ 180 __ 18 _ 80 _ 80 __ 178 __ 358 __ 20_100 _ 86 __206 ____ 564 Roger Smith _____________ 70 _ 62 _ 10^__ 142 __ 20^_100 _100__ 220__362 __ 20 _ 80 _ 92 __192 ____ 554 wxallannj _________________84 _ 72 _ 15^__ 171 __ 10^_ 60 _ 50 __ 120 __ 291 __ 64 _ 50 _ 78 __ 192 ____ 483 wxdude64 _______________ 56 _ 52 _ 22 __ 130 __ 15^_ 92 _ 96 __ 203 __ 333 __ 16 _ 78 _ 42 __136 ____469 Deformation Zone _______ 60 _ 38 _ 05^__ 103 __ 05^_ 80 _ 60__ 145 __ 248 __ 70_ 60 _ 36 __ 166 ____ 414 ________________________________________________________ EXTREME FORECAST REPORT _ DCA is a shared win for four forecasts, see table for details. _ NYC is a win for so_whats_happening with warmest forecast (+1.1 equal to outcome). _ BOS a win for so_whats_happening and RodneyS (warmest forecasts) _ ORD is a win for DonSutherland1 (warmest forecast) _ ATL, IAH, SEA wins for Roger Smith (coldest forecasts). _ DEN is a win for Deformation Zone (warmest forecast) _ PHX currently expected to finish close to consensus, will not qualify. __________________________________________

The max of only 96 at RIC must rank in their top ten all-time lowest values, anyone know what their lowest max on record is? I know that NYC is 90 for that statistic.

Now for the same analysis of lowest mean minimum weekly averages ... as you might expect, the frequency of them slowly decreases through the period of record. There are even so a few relatively recent cases where a cold regime overcame the disadvantage of the much larger urban heat island that exists now relative to the late 19th century. TABLE 2: NUMBER OF WEEKLY INTERVALS THAT ACHIEVED LOW MINIMUM for each year (ties are 0.5, there is one case of a three-way ties entered as 0.33) (weeks ending Jan 1-6 are assigned to year with majority of days and are marked * if they extend into next year (end Jan 1-3), and ** if they began in previous year (end Jan 4-6). As these cannot be directly read from the totals, the actuals are posted in the relevant decade which is 1910-19 since all six are in the winter of 1917-18 (so three count for each of those years). Only the colder of the two subsets ending March 1 to 6 count for this table. Monthly counts after decade totals are generated by end dates only (some days in some intervals can be in adjacent months) The random expectation is 2.4 per year and 24.1 per decade, 2.0 per month within decades. YEAR ENDING 0 __ 1 __ 2 __ 3 __ 4 __ 5 __ 6 __ 7 __ 8 __ 9 ___ decade total __ monthly count (total) ________________________________________________________________________J_F_M_ A_M_J_ J_A_S_ O_N_D decade ... (1869) ______________________________________ 8 _____8.0 ____0_ 0_ 0__ 0_0_0__ 0_0_0__ 6_2_0 1870s ________ 0__6.33_10.5_3.5__18 _ 21 __ 7 __ 0 __ 7 __ 4 ___77.33 __ 0_2_4.5_20_11.5_2_ 2.33_0_10_ 7_8_10 1880s ________11 __ 5 __ 1 _13.5__ 1 __11 __11.5 _4 __20 __ 3 ____81.0 ___ 6.5_3_19 _3_2_0_ 9_10.5_8_ 6_12_2 1890s _________3 __ 0 __ 1 __ 6 _ 2.5__2.5_ 3.5 _0 __ 0 __ 3 ____21.5 ___ 3_7.5_0_ 0_0.5_2_ 7_0.5_0_ 1_0_0 1900s _________3 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 1 __ 0 __ 0 __ 6 __ 0 __ 0 _____10.0 ___ 1_0_3_ 0_ 4_2_ 0_ 0_ 0_ 0_0_0 1910s _________0 __ 0 __ 6.5 _2 _ 4.5__ 1 __ 1 __ 12*_10.5**_3 ____41.5 ___9.5_4_1_ 0_2_5.5_ 0_5_6_ 0_0_8.5 _1917-18* (3) 1917-18** (3) 1920s _______5.33 _ 0 __ 0 _ 5.5 _ 2 __ 2 __6.5 _0 __ 0 __ 1 _____22.33 __ 0_0_1_ 4_0_2.5_ 6.33_2_0.5_ 0_2_4 1930s _________3 __ 0 __ 0 __ 5 __6.5 _ 4 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 _____18.5 ___2_6_2_ 0_1_2_ 0_ 0_ 0_ 1_ 4_0.5 1940s ________12 __ 0 __ 3 __ 0 __ 0 __ 6 __ 0 __ 6 __ 0 __ 0 ____ 27.0 ____0_0_0_ 0_0_7_ 2_ 5_ 3_ 7_ 0_ 3 1950s _________0 __ 4 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 1 __ 0 __ 0 __ 2 _____ 7.0 ____ 0_0_0_ 0_ 0_5_ 0 _1 _1_ 0_ 0_ 0 1960s _________0.5 _0 __ 0 __1.83 _ 6__ 1 __ 0 __ 1 __ 5 __ 0 ____15.33 ___ 5_0_0.5_0_ 1_ 0_ 1.33_4.5_1_ 2_0_0 1970s _________0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 _ 0.5 __0.5 _0 __ 0 __8.5 ___ 9.5 ____ 0 _4_0_ 0_ 0.5_0_ 3_1.5_0.5_ 0_0_0 1980s _________2 __ 0 __ 3 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 4 _____9.0 ____ 0_0_0_ 3_ 0_ 2_ 0_ 1_ 0_ 0_0_3 1990s _________0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 4 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 _____ 4.0 ____ 4_0_0_ 0_ 0_ 0_ 0_ 0_ 0_ 0_0_0 2000s _________0 __ 0 __3.5__0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 1 _____ 4.5 ____ 0_0_0_ 0_3.5_0_ 0_ 0_ 0_ 1_ 0_ 0 2010s _________0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 2.5 _0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 2 _____ 4.5 ____0_2.5_0_ 0_ 0_ 0_ 0_ 0_ 0_ 0_ 2_ 0 2020s _________5 __ 0 _ (0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0) ____ 5.0 _____0_ 0_ 0_ 0_ 5_0_ 0_ 0_ 0_ 0_ 0_ 0 ______________^2020 2021 __ (future years of 2022-29) ___________________________________________________________________________________ Most weekly intervals coldest on record: 1875_ 21 ... 1888_20 ... 1874_18 ... 1883_ 13.5 ... 1917, 1940_ 12.0 ... 1886_11.5 ... 1880,1885_11.0 ... 1872, 1918_ 10.5 ... These eleven years account for about 5/12 of the total in the calendar year. Since 1940, the highest annual count is 8.5 in 1979. Since then the highest count was 5.0 in 2020 (all in May). There were no coldest average minima in any weekly interval from January 1994 to May 2002 or from April 1982 to Aug 1989. There was only one between May 2002 and Feb 2015 (in Oct 2009). The 1950s were also rather void of record low temperatures. But it can also be noted that 1908, 1909, 1910 and 1911 scored zero. Recent years show that it is possible to break sustained cold records, but the cold needs to arrive with significant wind velocity to negate the bulk of the urban heat island now present. This is why (in addition to climate change) the frequency of low count years dropped significantly after about 1910 even if averages stayed rather high due to some severely cold episodes (almost all of the records shown for 1917 and 1918 were in a three-week interval in mid to late December 1917 and early January 1918. _ The frequency of low maxima has stayed slightly higher in recent years as the urban effect is smaller in the daytime hours. Longest consecutive groups of weekly intervals including all cases 4 or more (=10+ days) (2 would imply an 8-day warm spell, 3 would imply 9 days, etc) (No. ints. = number of intervals, when any are tied the count entered into the table above is also shown in brackets) No. ints. __ days ____ year, and start, end dates overall _11 _______ 17 _______ 1874 Apr 22 - May 8 (Apr 22-28 to May 2-8 intervals) _10 _______ 16 _______ 1875 Apr 12-27 (Apr 12-18 to Apr 21-27 intervals) _ 9 _______ 15 _______ 1880 Nov 16-30 (Nov 16-22 to Nov 24-30 intervals) _ much colder than second coldest at times (up to 10 F deg) _ 8 _______ 14 _______ 1869 Oct 20 - Nov 2 (Oct 20-26 to Oct 27 - Nov 2 intervals) _ 8 _______ 14 _______ 1917-18 Dec 25 - Jan 7 (Dec 25-31 to Jan 1-7 intervals) _ coldest average Dec 29 - Jan 4 (-4.43 F) _ 7 _______ 13 _______ 1883 Aug 31 - Sep 12 (Aug 31 - Sep 6 to Sep 6-12 intervals) _ 6 _______ 12 _______ 1888 Jan 18-29 (Jan 18-24 to Jan 23-29 intervals) _ 6 _______ 12 _______ 1888 July 8-19 (July 8-14 to July 13-19 intervals) _ 6 (5.5) __ 12 _______ 1917 Dec 7 - 18 (Dec 7-13 to Dec 12-18 intervals) _ first int tied with 1934 _ 6 (5.33)_ 12 _______ 1920 July 22 - Aug 2 (July 22-28 to July 27 - Aug 2 intervals) _ first int is tied three ways with 1871, 1963 _ 6 _______ 12 _______ 1945 May 30 to June 10 (May 30 - June 5 to June 4-10 intervals) _ 6 _______ 12 _______ 1947 Sep 22 to Oct 3 (Sep 22-28 to Sep 27 - Oct 3 intervals) _ 5 (4.5) __ 11 _______ 1872 Feb 29 - Mar 10 (Feb 29-Mar 6 to Mar 4-10 intervals) _ Mar 4-10 tied with 1883 _ 5 _______ 11 _______ 1874 Apr 7-17 (Apr 7-13 to Apr 11-17 intervals) _ 5 _______ 11 _______ 1875 Sep 17-27 (Sep 17-23 to Sep 21-27 intervals) _ 5 _______ 11 _______ 1875 Nov 26 - Dec 6 (Nov 26 - Dec 2 to Nov 30 - Dec 6 intervals) _ 5 _______ 11 _______ 1876 Oct 9-19 (Oct 9-15 to Oct 13-19 intervals) _ extends to 7/13 days (see one interruption notes) _ 5 _______ 11 _______ 1886 Aug 15-25 (Aug 15-21 to Aug 19-25 intervals) _ 5 _______ 11 _______ 1923 Mar 25 - Apr 4 (Mar 25-31 to Mar 29-Apr 4 intervals) _ 5 _______ 11 _______ 1940 Aug 20-30 (Aug 20-26 to Aug 24-30 intervals) _ 5 _______ 11 _______ 2020 May 5-15 (May 5-11 to May 9-15 intervals) _ cold enough to set benchmark values (see below) _ 5 _______ 11 _______ 1968 Jan 4-14 (Jan 4-10 to Jan 8-14 intervals) _ 4 _______ 10 ______ 1872 Dec 21-30 (Dec 21-27 to Dec 24-30 intervals) _ 4 _______ 10 _______ 1879 Oct 30 - Nov 8 (Oct 30 - Nov 5 to Nov 2-8 intervals) _ 4 _______ 10 _______ 1893 June 23 to July 2 (June 23-29 to June 26-July 2 intervals) _ 4 (3.5) _ 10 _______ 1918 June 17-26 (June 17-23 to June 20-26 intervals) _ first interval tied by 1926 _ 4 _______ 10 _______ 1926 Dec 1-10 (Dec 1-7 to Dec 4-10 intervals) _ 4 _______ 10 _______ 1935 Jan 24 - Feb 2 (Jan 24-30 to Jan 27 - Feb 2 intervals) _ 4 _______ 10 _______ 1940 Oct 15-24 (Oct 15-21 to Oct 18-24 intervals) _ 4 _______ 10 _______ 1951 June 9-18 (June 9-15 to June 12-18 intervals) _ 4 _______ 10 _______ 1979 Feb 10-19 (Feb 10-16 to Feb 13-19 intervals) _ 4 _______ 10 _______ 1994 Jan 14-23 (Jan 14-20 to Jan 17-23 intervals) _ 4 (3.5) __ 10 _______ 2002 May 16-25 (May 16-22 to May 19-25 intervals) _ last interval tied 1976 (_3 ________ 9 _______ 1934) Feb 4-12 (Feb 4-10 to 6-12 intervals) _ added despite falling short of 4/10 because very close to extending at either end, and extreme cold. ... the spell that followed in the calendar year (3 intervals 1899 ending Feb 13-15) was similar and lost out narrowly at either end. Another similar 1934 cold spell of three consecutive intervals was for Feb 22-28 to Feb 24-Mar 2. Also a spell in April 1881 (three intervals ending Apr 7-9) was just marginally prevented from taking a fourth ending Apr 6. (interrupted by one interval from another year) _ 7 ________ 13 ________ 1876 Oct 7 to 19 (see table above for five consecutive intervals ending Oct 19, before those, Oct 7-13, then (( _ )) Oct 8-14 (1875). _ 6 ________ 12 ________ 1918 June 17 to 28 (see table above for four consecutive intervals ending June 26 then (( _ )) June 22-28 _ interrupted by 1940 June 21-27. _ 5 ________ 11 ________ 1907 May 20-30 (May 20-26, (( _ )) May 22-28, May 23-29, May 24-30) _ interrupted by 1967 May 21-27 ... this can also be considered longer see below (interrupted by two intervals from another year but when urban heat island effect considered, both are probably a fairly robust cold spell of more recent times) _ 6 _________ 12 _______ 1964 Aug 9 - 20 (Aug 9-15, Aug 10-16 (( _ _ )) Aug 13-19, Aug 14-20 ... 1963t79 and 1979 interrupted Aug 11-17 and Aug 12-18. _ 5 _________ 11 _______ 2015 Feb 14-24 (Feb 14-20, 15-21, (( _ _ )) Feb 18-24 ... 1896 interrupted Feb 16-22, 17-23 and also tied 2015 for 15-21 (two interruptions, but stayed almost as cold as those intervening values, extends the entry above for 1907) _ 9 _________ 15 _______ 1907 May 20 - June 3 ( after May 24-30 (see above) two interruptions by 1930 then two more 1907 intervals ending June 2, 3). _______________________________________________ The total duration of the identified longer cold spells is 183 days plus about 10 from the extensions listed and another 12 from four robust three-day intervals with deep winter cold. That adds up to 205 days, slightly more than the warm analogue, although probably very similar since this one was extended a bit more freely. The "modal" very cold spell is probably also around 10 days long as a derived result of this analysis. 20-22 days seems to be an upper limit. This can be compared to the modal result for warm spells ... rather similar but capable of extending slightly longer by looks of the frequency analysis. It is unusual to see any cold spells giving way quickly to warmth or vice versa. One example was cold in late September 1947 quickly followed by record warmth in most of October. The spring of 1945 had a longer cycle but very warm weather in March-April gave way to very cold weather in May-June. Cold overnight weekly averages that can set records are rare in recent decades, only 25 of the 85 years 1936-2020 had any entries, accounting for a total of about 86 of the 366 coldest weeks (an average of one per year). The average for the 67 years ending 1935 was closer to four per year. ________________________________________________________ "Benchmark" average minima (lowest so late in season from arbitrary start of January 4 minimum value, reverses at summer's highest average minimum weekly average and from that point, second column shows the first occurrences of benchmark values ending with the lowest value again for Dec 29 to Jan 4 Average ____Weekly interval ______ Year ____________ Average ___ Weekly Interval _______ Year -4.86 _______Dec 29- Jan 4 _____ 1917-1918 _________ (62.00) ____ July 27-Aug 2 ________ 1920 (highest value, reversal point) -1.43 _______ Dec 30- Jan 5 _____ 1917-1918 __________ 59.00 _____ July 31 - Aug 6 ______ 1912 3.00 ________Feb 8 - 14 ___________1899 ______________ 58.86 _____ Aug 1 - 7 _____________ 1912 4.00 _______ Feb 9 - 15 ___________ 1899 ______________ 58.00 _____ Aug 2 - 8 ____________ 1886 6.29 _______ Feb 12-18 ____________1979 ______________ 57.86 ______ Aug 16-22 ___________ 1886 6.43 _______ Feb 16-22 ___________ 1896 ______________ 57.14 ______ Aug 17-23 ___________ 1886 9.43 _______ Feb 17-23 ___________ 1896 ______________ 56.43 _____ Aug 18-24 ___________ 1886 9.71 ________ Feb 20-26 __________ 1914 ______________ 55.86 ______ Aug 21-27 ___________ 1940 10.86 _______ Feb 23- Mar 1 ______ 1934 ______________ 55.71 _______ Aug 23-29 __________ 1940 11.14 ________ Feb 28- Mar 5 ______ 1884 ______________ 55.14 ______ Aug 25-31 ___________ 1887 11.71 ________ Mar 1 - 7 ____________ 1872 ______________ 55.00 ______ Aug 29 - Sep 4 ______ 1872 11.86 ________ Mar 17-23 __________ 1885 ______________ 54.57 ______ Aug 30 - Sep 5 ______ 1872 13.00 _______ Mar 18-24 __________ 1885 _______________ 54.43 _____ Aug 31 - Sep 6 _______ 1883 16.00 _______ Mar 19-25 __________ 1885 _______________ 53.43 ______ Sep 1 - 7 ____________ 1883 17.86 _______ Mar 20-26 ___________1885 _______________ 53.00 ______ Sep 2 - 8 ____________ 1883 19.43 _______ Mar 27 - Apr 2 ______ 1923 _______________51.14 _______ Sep 3 - 9 ____________ 1883 20.71 _______ Mar 28 - Apr 3 ______ 1923 _______________49.71 _______ Sep 4-10 ____________ 1883 25.57 _______ Mar 29 - Apr 4 ______ 1923 _______________48.86 ______ Sep 15-21 ____________1871 26.14 _______ Apr 2 - 8 ____________ 1881 _______________ 47.43 ______Sep 16-22 ____________ 1871 27.00 _______ Apr 3 - 9 ____________ 1881 _______________ 46.00 ______ Sep 17-23 ___________ 1875 27.14 ________Apr 16-22 ___________ 1875 _______________ 45.14 ______ Sep 18-24 ___________ 1875 27.43 ________Apr 17-23 ___________1875 _______________ 44.86 ______ Sep 22-28 ___________1947 28.57 ________Apr 18-24 __________ 1875 _______________ 43.57 ______ Sep 25 - Oct 1 _______1947 29.86 ________Apr 19-25 __________ 1875 _______________ 43.29 ______ Sep 26 - Oct 2 ______ 1947 32.57 ________Apr 20-26 __________ 1875 ________________41.71 ______ Sep 28 - Oct 4 _______1888 34.14 ________Apr 24-30 __________ 1874 ________________40.43 ______Oct 3 - 9 ____________ 1964 34.57 _______ Apr 25 - May 1 ______ 1874 ________________39.57 _____ Oct 4-10 _____________1964 34.71 ________Apr 26 - May 2 ______ 1874 ________________39.00 _____ Oct 10-16 ___________ 1876 34.86 _______ Apr 27 - May 3 ______ 1874 ________________38.43 _____ Oct 11-17 ____________ 1876 35.57 ________ Apr 28 - May 4 _____ 1874 ________________38.29 _____ Oct 12-18 ____________ 1876 37.57 ________ Apr 29 - May 5 _____ 1874 _________________38.00 _____ Oct 15-21 ____________1940 38.86 ________ Apr 30 - May 6 _____ 1874 ________________ 35.43 _____ Oct 16-22 ___________ 1940 39.71 ________ May 2 - 8 ___________ 1874 _________________35.14 _____ Oct 17-23 ____________ 1940 40.43 ________ May 7-13 ___________2020 ________________ 34.86 _____ Oct 24-30 ___________ 1869 40.57 _________May 8-14 __________ 2020 ________________ 33.57 _____ Oct 25-31 ____________ 1869 43.14 _________ May 10-16 _________ 1878 ________________ 32.71 ______ Oct 26 - Nov 1 _______ 1869 43.43 ________ May 11-17 __________ 1878 ________________ 32.29 ______ Oct 30 - Nov 5 ______ 1879 44.29 ________ May 12-18 __________ 1878 ________________29.71 _______Oct 31 -Nov 6 _______ 1879 45.14 _________ May 13-19 _________ 1882, 1895 __________29.00 ______ Nov 1 - 7 ____________ 1879 45.57 ________ May 20-26 _________ 1907 ________________ 27.14 _______ Nov 11-17 ___________ 1933 45.86 ________ May 21-27 _________ 1967 ________________ 26.29 _______ Nov 12-18 __________ 1883 46.71 _________ May 24-30 ________ 1907 ________________ 25.43 _______ Nov 16-22 __________ 1880 47.14 _________ May 26 - June 1 ___ 1930 ________________ 22.71 _______ Nov 17-23 __________ 1880 47.57 _________ May 31 - June 6 ___1945 ________________ 19.57 ________ Nov 18-24 __________ 1880 47.86 _________ June 1 - 7 _________ 1945 ________________ 18.86 ________ Nov 20-26 __________ 1880 49.57 _________ June 2 - 8 _________1945 ________________ 17.71 _________ Nov 21-27 __________ 1880 50.86 _________ June 3 - 9 ________ 1945 ________________ 16.43 ________ Nov 27 - Dec 3 _____ 1875 52.14 __________June 8-14 ________ 1980 _________________16.00 ________ Nov 28 - Dec 4 _____ 1875 53.14 __________June 10-16 _______ 1951 _________________ 15.43 ________ Dec 1 - 7 ____________1926 53.86 _________ June 11-17 ________ 1951 _________________14.29 ________ Dec 9-15 ____________ 1917 54.43 _________ June 13-19 _______ 1933 _________________13.29 ________ Dec 10-16 ___________ 1917 54.57 _________ June 20-26 _______ 1918 _________________11.57 _________ Dec 14-20 __________ 1919 55.29 _________ June 21-27 ________1940 _________________10.43 ________ Dec 15-21 ___________1942 56.43 _________ June 24-30 _______ 1893 _________________ 9.29 ________ Dec 16-22 __________ 1942 57.00 __________June 28 - July 4 __ 1888 __________________8.71 _________ Dec 21-27 _________ 1872 58.29 __________June 30 - July 6 __ 1940 _________________ 6.43 ________ Dec 22-28 _________ 1872 58.43 __________ July 12-18 _______ 1888 __________________ 5.29 ________ Dec 25-31 _________ 1917 59.43 __________ July 18-24 _______ 1890 __________________1.29 ________ Dec 26 - Jan 1 _____ 1917-18 ____________________________________________________________-1.00 ________ Dec 27 - Jan 2 ____ 1917-18 ____________________________________________________________-2.86 ________ Dec 28 - Jan 3 ____ 1917-18 (62.00 for July 27 - Aug 2 1920 is the reversal point) ____(-4.43 ______ Dec 29 - Jan 4 _ 1917-18 .. top of table) (to reduce complexity here, after July 18-24 1890, no further values appear until a downward trend begins in mid-August, as most values after that entry are in the 60s and the highest value is 62.00 for July 27 - Aug 2 1920.)

Meanwhile, here is a summary of the number of weekly intervals in each year that achieved highest or lowest values, for the primary stats of high max and low min (there are four other possible tables, low max, high min, high mean and low mean, that might follow after a while). TABLE 1: NUMBER OF WEEKLY INTERVALS THAT ACHIEVED HIGH MAXIMUM for each year (ties are 0.5, there is one case of a three-way tie in Nov) (weeks ending Jan 1-6 are assigned to year with majority of days and are marked * (1936, 1984x2) if they extend into next year ending Jan 1-3), and ** (2023x2, 2007) if they began in previous year (end Jan 4-6) As these cannot be directly read from the totals (months per decade), the actuals are posted in the relevant decades. All six are listed as ending in January in their decade (as are all cases straddling two months, listed by end date). Only the warmer of the two subsets (leap years, non leap years) ending March 1 to 6 count for this table. Monthly counts after decade totals are generated by end dates only (some days in some intervals can be in adjacent months) The random expectation is 2.4 per year and 24.1 per decade, 2.0 per month within decades. YEAR ENDING 0 __ 1 __ 2 __ 3 __ 4 __ 5 __ 6 __ 7 __ 8 __ 9 ___ decade total __ monthly count (total) decade ... (1869) ______________________________________ 0 _____ 0.0 ____ J_F_M__A_M_J__J_A_S__ O_N_D 1870s _________0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 2 __ 0 __ 2 _____ 4.0 ____ 0_ 0_0__ 0_2_0__ 0_0_0 _ 0_2_0 1880s _________6 __ 5 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 2 __ 0 __ 2 __ 0 ____ 15.0 ____ 0_ 0_2__ 2_4_2__ 0_0_2__3_0_0 1890s _________0 __ 1.5__ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 6 __ 3 __ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ____ 11.5 ____ 0_0_0__ 0_0_3.5_ 0_3_5 _ 0_0_0 1900s _________0 __ 2 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 _____ 2.0 ____ 0_0_0__ 0_0_0__ 2_0_0__ 0_0_0 1910s _________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___1 __ 4 __ 2 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 _____ 7.0 ____ 2_0_0__ 0_0_0__ 0_0_5__ 0_0_0 1920s _________0 __ 0 __ 2 __ 2 __ 0 __ 6 __ 0 __ 0 __ 1 __ 0 _____ 11.0 ____ 0_0_0__ 0_0_8__ 0_0_0__ 2_1_0 1930s _________5 __ 6 __ 6 __ 3.5 _ 0 __ 0 __ 1*__ 0 __ 2 __ 0 _____23.5 ___8_1_0__ 0_4_0__ 0_2.5_4__2_2 0 _ 1936-37* (1) count for 1936 1940s _________0 __ 1.5 _ 0 __ 2 __ 4 _ 5.5 _ 7.5 _ 9 __ 4 __ 2 ____ 35.5 ___1_0_7__ 0.5_0_2__ 0_8_0__13.5_2.5_1 1950s ________2.83_ 1 __ 0 __12 __ 4 __ 4 __ 0 _ 5.5__ 0 __2.5___ 31.83 ___1_1_0__ 0_0_5.5 _ 1_6_6__ 3.5_5.83_2 1960s _________0 __0.33 _8 __ 3 __ 0 __ 1 ___ 8 __ 1 __ 0 __ 0____ 21.33 ___1_0_0__3_6_2 __ 6_0_0__ 3 _0.5_0 1970s _________4 __ 0 __ 1 __ 4 __ 1 __ 3 _ 9.5 __ 4 __ 0 __ 4 ____ 30.5 ____ 3_1_4__ 5_3_1__ 4_1.5_1__ 0_7 _0 1980s _________1.5 _3 __ 2 __7.5 _ 7* *_2 __ 0.5 _ 0 __ 0 __ 0 _____23.5 ____ 2_4_0__ 1.5_0_4__ 3_3_3__ 0_0_ 3 _1984-85* (2) count for 1984 1990s _______ 13.5_20 _ 0 _ 10 _ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 16 __ 5 _____ 64.5 ___ 4_11_ 7 __7_4.5_2__13_1_0__ 2_3_10 2000s ________ 3 _ 8.5 _ 10.5 _ 0 __ 1 __ 1 __ 2 __ 4**_ 2 __2.5____ 34.5 ____ 7 _3_2__ 3_7.5_0_ 0_6_1 _ 2_1_2 _ 2006-07** (1) counts for 2007 2010s _________5 __ 1 __ 4 __ 0 __ 0 __ 14 _ 4 __ 3 __ 0 __ 0 _____31.0 ____ 0_ 2_ 8_ 4_ 0_ 0_ 2_0_ 2 _ 0_0_13 2020s _________4 __1 _1.33_13** ** 0 _ ( 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0) ___ 19.33____2 _6_ 1_ 4_0_ 0__ 0_ 0_1 _ 0_5.33_0_ _ 2022-23 ** (2) count for 2023 _____________ ^^2020-2024 Apr 1 _(future years of 2025-29)^^ (366.0) ^ 2022-23 intervals ending 4 and 5 Jan replaced 1992-93**, 1999-2000** (tied but in same decade) and 2004-05 ** ___________________________________________________________________________________ Most weekly intervals warmest on record: 1991_ 20 ... 1998_16 ... 2015_ 14.0 ... 1990_ 13.5 ... 2023_ 13 ... 1953_ 12 ... 2002_ 10.5 ... 1993_ 10 ... 1976_ 9.5 LOG of ANNUAL DATA (by months) ___________ Totals for 30-year intervals 1877 0 0 0 _ 0 2 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___2 1879 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 2 0 ___ 2 1880 0 0 2 _ 0 4 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 6 1881 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 2 _ 3 0 0 ___ 5 1886 0 0 0 _ 2 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 2 1888 0 0 0 _ 0 0 2 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 2 1891 0 0 0 _ 0 0 1.5_0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 1.5 1895 0 0 0 _ 0 0 2 _ 0 0 4 _ 0 0 0 ___ 6 1896 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 3 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 3 1898 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 1 _ 0 0 0 ___ 1 _ _ _ _ _ _ Totals for 1874-1903 (1/5 of data, average 71.2, approx 6 per mo) 1901 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 2 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 2 _________ 0 0 2 _ 2 6 5.5_ 2 3 7 _ 3 2 0 ___ 32.5 1914 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 1 _ 0 0 0 ___ 1 1915 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 4 _ 0 0 0 ___ 4 1916 2 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 2 1922 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 2 0 0 ___ 2 1923 0 0 0 _ 0 0 2 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 2 1925 0 0 0 _ 0 0 6 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 6 1928 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 1 0 ___ 1 1930 0 1 0 _ 0 4 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 5 1931 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 4 _ 0 2 0 ___ 6 1932 6 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 6 _ _ _ _ _ _ Totals for 1904-1933 1933 1 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 2.5 0_0 0 0 ___ 3.5 ________9 1 0 _ 0 4 8 _ 0 2.5 9 _ 2 3 0 ___ 38.5 1936 1* 0 0_ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 1 (* ends Jan 1 1937) 1938 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 2 0 0 ___ 2 1941 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _1.5 0 0 ___1.5 1943 0 0 0 _ 0 0 2 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 2 1944 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 4 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 4 1945 0 0 5 _0.5 0 0_ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___5.5 1946 0 0 2 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _2 2.5 1 __ 7.5 1947 1 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 8 0 0 ___ 9 1948 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 4 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 4 1949 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 2 0 0 ___ 2 1950 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _0 2.83 0__2.83 1951 1 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 1 1953 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 1 6 _ 0 3 2 ___ 12 1954 0 1 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 3 0 0 ___ 4 1955 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 1 3 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 4 1957 0 0 0 _ 0 0 5.5_ 0 0 0_ 0 0 0 ___ 5.5 1959 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 2 0_ 0.5 0 0 ___ 2.5 1961 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0.33 0__ 0.33 1962 0 0 0 _ 3 5 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 8 _ _ _ _ _ _ Totals for 1934-1963 1963 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 3 0 0 ___ 3 __________ 3 1 7 _ 3.5 5 7.5 _ 1 14 6 _ 22 8.67 3 ___ 81.67 1965 0 0 0 _ 0 1 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 1 1966 0 0 0 _ 0 0 2 _ 6 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 8 1967 1 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 1 1970 0 0 0 _ 0 3 0 _ 0 0 1 _ 0 0 0 ___ 4 1972 0 0 0.5_0 0 0 _0 0.5 0_ 0 0 0___ 1 1973 3 0 0 _ 0 0 1 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 4 1974 0 0 1 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 1 1975 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 3 0 ___ 3 1976 0 1 2.5_5 0 0 _ 0 1 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 9.5 1977 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 4 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 4 1979 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 4 0 ___ 4 1980 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _1 0.5 0_ 0 0 0 ___ 1.5 1981 0 2 0 _ 1 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 3 1982 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 2 ___ 2 1983 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _2 2.5 3_ 0 0 0 ___ 7.5 1984 2* 0 0 _ 0 0 4 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 1 ___ 7 (* two end Jan 1985 count for 1984) 1985 0 2 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 2 1986 0 0 0 _ 0.5 0 0_ 0 0 0 _0 0 0 ___ 0.5 1990 0 4 5 _ 0 0.5 0 _0 0 0 _2 0 2 ___13.5 1991 0 7 1 _ 4 4 2 _ 2 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 20 _ _ _ _ _ _ Totals for 1964-1993 1993 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 7 0 0 _ 0 3 0 ___10 __________ 6 16 10 _ 10.5 8.5 9 _ 22 4.5 4 _ 2 10 5 _____107.5 1998 4 0 1 _ 3 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 8 ___ 16 1999 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 4 1 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 5 2000 0 0 1 _ 0 2 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 3 2001 0 0 0 _ 0 4 0 _ 0 1.5 0_ 0 1 2 ___ 8.5 2002 2 2 0 _ 2 0 0 _0 4.5 0 _0 0 0 ___10.5 2004 0 0 1 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 1 2005 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 1 _ 0 0 0 ___ 1 2006 1 1 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 2 2007 2 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 2 0 0 ___ 4 2008 2 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 2 2009 0 0 0 _ 1 1.5 0_ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 2.5 2010 0 0 0 _ 4 0 0 _ 1 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 5 2011 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 1 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 1 2012 0 0 4 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 4 2015 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 1 _ 0 0 13 __ 14 2016 0 0 4 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 4 2017 0 2 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 1 _ 0 0 0 ___ 3 2020 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 4 0 ___4 2021 0 0 1 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 1 2022 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0_ 0 1.33 0_ 1.33 _ _ _ _ _ _ Totals for 1994-2023 2023 2 6 0 _ 4 0 0 _ 0 0 1 _ 0 0 0 ___ 13 __________ 13 11 12 _ 14 7.5 0 _ 6 7 4 _ 2 6.33 23 ___ 105.83 Longest consecutive groups of weekly intervals including all cases 4 or more (=10+ days) (2 would imply an 8-day warm spell, 3 would imply 9 days, etc) (No. ints. = number of intervals, when any are tied the count entered into the table above is also shown in brackets) No. ints. __ days ____ year, and start, end dates overall _ 8 ________ 14 _______ 1947 Oct 16-29 (Oct 16-22 to Oct 23-29 intervals) _ first of these prevented 1963 from reaching 4 (10). 1963 often close during 1947 run. _ 8 ________ 14 _______ 1998 Nov 27 - Dec 10 (Nov 27-Dec 3 to Dec 4-10 intervals) _ 8 ________ 14 _______ 2015 Dec 8-21 (Dec 8-14 to Dec 15-21 intervals) see also 5 int spell a few days later _ 7 ________ 13 _______ 1953 Aug 25 - Sep 6 (Aug 25-31 to Aug 31-Sep 6 intervals) _ almost equalled by 1973 similar timing (about 2 deg cooler) _ 7 ________ 13 _______ 1991 Jan 29 - Feb 10 (Jan 29-Feb 4 to Feb 4-10 intervals) _ 7 ________ 13 _______ 1993 July 4-16 (July 4-10 to July 10-16 intervals) _ 6 ________ 12 _______ 1925 May 30-June 10 (May 30-June 5 to June 4-10 intervals) _ 6 ________ 12 _______ 1932 Jan 9-20 (Jan 9-15 to 14-20 intervals) _ 6 (5.5) ___ 12 _______ 1957 June 11-22 (June 11-17 to June 16-22 intervals) tied 1891 first of these intervals _ 6 ________ 12 _______ 1966 June 27 - July 8 (June 27 - July 3 to July 2-8 intervals) _ (a) _ 6 ________ 12 _______ 2023 Feb 9-20 (Feb 9-15 to 14-20 intervals) _ 5 (4.5) ___ 11 _______ 1946 Oct 24 - Nov 3 (Oct 24-30 to Oct 28-Nov 3 intervals) _ last interval a tie with 1950 _ 5 ________ 11 _______ 1962 May 15-25 (May 15-21 to May 19-25 intervals) _ 5 ________ 11 _______ 1976 Apr 14-24 (Apr 14-20 to Apr 18-24 intervals) ^ _ 5 ________ 11 _______ 1990 Mar 9-19 (Mar 9-15 to 13-19 intervals) _ 5 ________ 11 _______ 1999 July 22 - Aug 1 (July 22-28 to July 26-Aug 1 intervals) _ 5 ________ 11 _______ 2015 Dec 19-29 (Dec 19-25 to Dec 23-29 intervals) _ 3d interruption in 22d spell Dec 8-29, 2015 within 2 deg. _ 5 ________ 11 _______ 2020 Nov 4-14 (Nov 4-10 to Nov 8-14 intervals) _ 4 ________ 10 _______ 1880 May 20-29 (May 20-26 to May 23-29 intervals) _ 4 ________ 10 _______ 1895 Sep 17-26 (Sep 17-23 to Sep 20-26 intervals) _ 4 ________ 10 _______ 1915 Sep 11-20 (Sep 11-17 to Sep 14-20 intervals) _ 4 ________ 10 _______ 1931 Sep 7-16 (Sep 7-13 to Sep 10-16 intervals) _ 4 ________ 10 _______ 1930 May 1 - 10 (May 1-7 to May 4-10 intervals) _ 4 ________ 10 _______ 1944 Aug 8-17 (Aug 8-14 to Aug 11-17 intervals) _ 4 ________ 10 _______ 1948 Aug 21-30 (Aug 21-27 to Aug 24-30 intervals) _ 4 (3.0) ___ 10 _______ 1950 Oct 28 - Nov 6 (Oct 28-Nov 3 to Oct 31-Nov 6 intervals) _ first tied 1946, last tied 1961 _ 4 (3.5) ___ 10 _______ 1976 Feb 23-Mar 4 (Feb 23-29 to Feb 27-Mar 4, last int tied 1972) _ 4 ________ 10 _______ 1977 July 13-22 (July 13-19 to July 16-22 intervals) _ 4 ________ 10 _______ 1979 Nov 20-29 (Nov 20-26 to Nov 23-29 intervals) _ 4 ________ 10 _______ 1984 June 5 to 14 (Jun 5-11 to Jun 8-14 intervals) ... was very close second at both ends _ 4 ________ 10 _______ 1990 Feb 5-14 (Feb 5-11 to 8-14 intervals) ... lost a day to 2023 see above _ 4 ________ 10 _______ 1991 Apr 4-13 (Apr 4-10 to 7-13 intervals) _ 4 ________ 10 _______ 1991 May 24-June 2 (May 24-30 to May 27-June 2 intervals) _ 4 ________ 10 _______ 1998 Jan 2-11 (Jan 2-8 to 5-11 intervals) _ 4 ________ 10 _______ 1998 Mar 25-Apr 3 (Mar 25-31 to Mar 28-Apr 3 intervals) * _ 4 ________ 10 _______ 2001 Apr 27 - May 6 (Apr 27-May 3 to Apr 30-May 6 intervals) _ 4 ________ 10 _______ 2010 Mar 31-Apr 9 (Mar 31-Apr 6 to Apr 3-9 intervals) _ 4 ________ 10 _______ 2012 Mar 17-26 (Mar 17-23 to Mar 20-26 intervals) _ 4 ________ 10 _______ 2016 Mar 5-14 (Mar 5-11 to 8-14 intervals) _ 4 ________ 10 _______ 2023 Apr 8-17 (Apr 8-14 to 11-17 intervals) * erased 6 int, 12 day spell from 1945, first two intervals remain from that, last four broken by 1998. ^ 2002 had a similar run of three intervals before this one and finished just slightly below the value for the first 1976 interval. (a) 1966 extends to 10 intervals, 16d with 1901 ahead for third and fourth, covering June 23 to July 8. Intensity in 1966 dropped slightly when 1901 ahead, but avg above 91F. (interrupted by one interval from another year) _ 5 _________ 11 _______ 2002 Jan 23-Feb 2 (Jan 23-29, 24-30, (( _ )) Jan 26-Feb 1, Jan 27-Feb 2 ... 1947 interrupted Jan 25-31) These longer warm intervals add up to a total of 203 weekly intervals or over half the calendar year. Two and three consecutive spells are quite frequent also. The "modal" very warm spell is probably around 10 days long as a derived result of this analysis. 20-23 days seems to be an upper limit. ________________________________________________________ "Benchmark" average maxima (highest so early in season from arbitrary start of January maximum, reverses at summer max value, 98.43 (July 15-21, 1977) from that point, second column shows the latest occurrences of benchmark values ending with the highest value of late December) Average ____ Weekly interval ______ Year ______________ Average ___ Weekly Interval _______ Year 59.86 _______ Jan 12-18 ___________ 1932 _______________ (98.43) ____ July 15-21 ___________ 1977 60.29 _______ Feb 18-24 ___________ 2017 _______________ 98.29 ______ Aug 28-Sep 3 _______ 1953 63.29 _______ Feb 19-25 ___________ 1930 _______________ 97.14 _______ Aug 29-Sep 4 _______ 1953 64.86 _______ Mar 6-12 ____________ 2016 _______________ 95.29 ______ Aug 30-Sep 5 _______ 1953 67.43 ________Mar 7-13 _____________2016 _______________ 93.29 ______ Aug 31-Sep 6 _______ 1953 70.29 ________Mar 10-16 ___________ 1990 _______________ 92.14 _______ Sep 5-11 ____________ 1983 73.00 ________Mar 11-17 ____________ 1990 _______________91.00 _______ Sep 9-15 ____________ 1931 73.57 ________Mar 24-30 ___________ 1945 _______________89.43 ______ Sep 10-16 ___________ 1931 75.57 ________Mar 25-31 ___________ 1998 _______________ 89.29 ______ Sep 20-26 __________ 1895 78.43 _______ Mar 26-Apr 1 ________ 1998 ________________87.57 _______ Sep 21-27 __________ 1970 79.14 ________ Apr 10-16 ___________ 2023 80.86 _______ Apr 12-18 ____________ 2002 _______________ 85.57 ______ Sep 23-29 __________ 1881 85.43 _______ Apr 13-19 ____________ 2002 _______________ 85.43 ______ Sep 25-Oct 1 _______ 1881 86.29 _______ Apr 15-21 ____________ 1976 ________________ 83.43 ______ Sep 26-Oct 2 _______1881 86.86 _______ May 18-24 ___________ 1962 ________________82.71 ______ Sep 29-Oct 5 _______ 1922 87.29 _______ May 21-27 ____________ 1880 _______________ 82.29 _____ Oct 3 - 9 _____________2007 87.71 _______ May 22-28 ____________ 1880 ________________81.00 ______ Oct 4-10 ______1959, 2007 88.14 _______ May 24-30 ____________1991 ________________ 80.86 ______ Oct 6-12 ___________ 1990 89.00 _______ May 25-31 ____________1991 ________________ 80.43 ______ Oct 8-14 ___________ 1949 90.14 _______ May 28-June 3 _______ 1895 ________________ 80.29 ______ Oct 9-15 ___________ 1954 93.00 _______ May 31-June 6 _______ 1925 ________________ 80.14 ______ Oct 10-16 __________ 1954 95.00 _______ June 1-7 ______________ 1925 ________________ 79.43 _____ Oct 15-21 __________ 1963 95.71 ________ June 27-July 3 _______ 1966 ________________ 78.14 ______ Oct 17-23 _________ 1947 96.29 ________ July 4-10 ____________ 1993 ________________ 76.00 ______ Oct 18-24 _________ 1947 96.57 _________ July 5-11 ____________ 1993 ________________ 75.71 _______ Oct 25-31 _________ 1946 97.00 _________ July 6-12 ____________1993 _________________ 74.86 ______ Oct 27-Nov 2 ______1946 98.00 _________ July 7-13 ___________ 1993 _________________ 74.14 ______ Oct 29-Nov 4 ______1950 98.43 _________ July 15-21 ___________1977 _________________ 73.29 ______ Oct 30-Nov 5 _____ 1950 _____________________________________________________________ 73.14 _______ Nov 3-9 ___________1975 _____________________________________________________________ 72.57 _______ Nov 6-12 _________ 2020 _____________________________________________________________ 69.71 ________Nov 7-13 _________ 2020 _____________________________________________________________ 68.14 _______ Nov 17-23 ________ 1953 _____________________________________________________________ 67.29 ________Dec 1-7 ___________ 1998 _____________________________________________________________ 65.86 _______ Dec 2-8 __________ 1998 _____________________________________________________________ 63.57 _______ Dec 3-9 __________ 1998 _____________________________________________________________ 63.43 _______ Dec 9-15 _________ 2015 _____________________________________________________________ 63.14 _______ Dec 10-16 _________ 2015 _____________________________________________________________ 63.00 _______ Dec 11-17 _________ 2015 _____________________________________________________________ 62.86 _______ Dec 21-27 ________ 2015 _____________________________________________________________ 61.43 _______ Dec 22-28 ________ 2015 ___________________ (next entry would be first entry above, Jan 12-18 1932) or (59.71 Jan 3-9 1998) with a reversal. (similar analysis to follow for low minima)

George would have won if it was where I live (112F June 30th).

The last two posts appear to be somewhat in coded format, meanwhile I added some further info to my last post to show who would win the contest at all currently possible outcomes of 22 and 23 named storms. Some outcomes are no longer possible, you can't add more hurricanes or majors than named storms to 19/7/4 (unless Peter came back to life as a hurricane). I am happy to answer any formulated questions about the scoring but it was explained in June and the reason why named storms are not given as large an error rating as the other two categories is because last year the equal weighted system we used in all other years crashed out and only one forecaster even had a positive total because of the huge error stats for the named storm portion. So I devised this less punitive (but still expanding exponentially as I think it should) system ... you do of course realize that the 40-30-30 category scoring is just for illustration, I could have made it 30-35-35 and come up with the same totals, or stuck to 100 minus total error. Also I hope people realize that the first set of scores only apply to the current situation and are not contest "standings" in any other sense.

Not yet, could eventually but you and I have almost the same forecasts and we're nearly bottom of the scoring table until we do get up around 23 named storms, then the problem will be that from 19/7/4 the most optimistic outcome would be 23/11/8 and a more realistic one is 23/9/5. From 23/11/7 (or even 24/11/7) our scores would be 3-4 still behind two lower named storm forecasts who would have smaller error totals on H/M. The named storm errors only cut in half as much as the H and M errors. If we get to 25/11/7 then we do get into a narrow lead. For you to pass me, there would have to be 14 or more hurricanes, our errors are the same on the other two, and realistic counts that reach 14 hurricanes go well above the 25 named storms from McIntosh who has a higher major prediction so you can still finish ahead of McIntosh up to around 27/14/8, the H count will not matter but above 27/8 on the others would favor McIntosh. We are of course nowhere near those numbers yet and probably won't add enough H or M for us to be too concerned about it anyway although we could easily verify our 23 as best sub-forecasts. I have an excel file to back up the scoring (confessing that I did the first table in my head then decided to call in Mr Excel to help me out. It was relatively easy to calculate scores for all options that can still verify (from 19/7/4, for example 25/14/10 of McIntosh cannot quite verify and our two forecasts cannot exactly verify as we need six more hurricanes from four named storms. So for the possible options of 21 and 22 named storms, you can see in the table above who would win the contest if that's where the numbers end up. For the 23 options this is what I see as possible and the highest scores calculated by the excel program ... For the last set of options I show scores for myself and Tezeta as we begin to close in on the leaders at that point. 22 7 4 ___ IntenseWind007 22 9 4 (97.0) ______________ 23 7 4 ___ IntenseWind007 22 9 4 (96.5) 22 8 4 ___ IntenseWind007 22 9 4 (99.0) ______________ 23 8 4 ___ IntenseWind007 22 9 4 (98.5) 22 8 5 ___ IntenseWind007 22 9 4 (98.0) ______________ 23 8 5 ___ IntenseWind007 22 9 4 (97.5) 22 9 4 ___ IntenseWind007 22 9 4 (100.0) _____________ 23 9 4 ___ IntenseWind007 22 9 4 (99.5) 22 9 5 ___ IntenseWind007 22 9 4 (99.0) _______________23 9 5 ___ IntenseWind007 22 9 4 (98.5) 22 9 6 ___ Newman 21 10 5 (97.5) ______________________ 23 9 6 ___ IntenseWind007, Newman, JKeithLee (tied 96.5) 22 10 4 __ IntenseWind007 22 9 4 (99.0) ______________ 23 10 4 ___ IntenseWind007 22 9 4 (98.5) 22 10 5 __ Newman 21 10 5 (99.5) _____________________ 23 10 5 ___ Newman 21 10 5 (98.5) 22 10 6 __ SouthMDwatcher 22 11 6 (99.0) ____________ 23 10 6 ___ SouthMDwatcher 22 11 6 (98.5) 22 10 7 __ SouthMDwatcher 22 11 6 (98.0) ____________ 23 10 7 ___ SouthMDwatcher 22 11 6 (97.5) _______________________________________________________23 11 4 ___ IntenseWind, SouthMD tied (96.5) RS 91 Tez 88 _______________________________________________________23 11 5 ___ SouthMDwatcher (98.5) RS 94 Tez 91 _______________________________________________________23 11 6 ___ SouthMDwatcher (99.5) RS 96 Tez 93 _______________________________________________________23 11 7 ___ SouthMDwatcher (98.5) RS 97 Tez 94 _______________________________________________________23 11 8 ___ SouthMDwatcher (96.5) RS 96 Tez 93 (so Tezeta, we are blocked by SouthMDwatcher all the way to the top of the 23 named storm pile although we gradually get closer to the top). Above 23 named storms, you would figure the count almost surely must add some H and M so I won't bother to list these yet, and the plausible ones start probably around 24/10/5. (edit Oct 2, the fact that Victor did not become a hurricane eliminates the 22 10 x and 23 11 x options from the possible outcomes). (edit Oct 31, now that Wanda has arrived, could possibly become a hurricane but unlikely to be a major hurricane, 22 9 6, 23 10 7 options are eliminated).

Predict the temperature anomalies (F deg) relative to 1991-2020 normal values ... for ___ DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA (deadline 06z Friday Oct 1st )

Contest now declared final, order of finish as follows ... (note rules to break ties as announced June 12th) Scoring: same as other years, the sum of your departures from final seasonal max numbers. However, I will announce in advance that in the case of a tie (for any position) the order will be determined as follows: (a) smallest maximum error (separates 3rd, 4th; 5th, 6th; 7th and 8th below, also 13th-14th from 15th-16th, then also 19th and 20th, and 21st from 22nd-23rd, finally 24th and 25th.) (b) if necessary, second smallest error (defined as smallest of three errors left to separate after (a) eliminated) _ was required to separate 9th and 10th, and 15th, 16th. (c) if still tied, earliest entry (regardless of edit times if applicable since not visible to readers) _ required to separate 13th and 14th which were identical entries, and 17th, 18th as well as 22nd, 23rd which were not identical but survived both (a) and (b) tests. CONTEST RESULTS _ ties broken as per rules above, showing which rule applied in each tiebreaker Rank __ FORECASTER _________ DCA _IAD _BWI _ RIC _______ Total error _________ Outcome ______________ 97 _ 100 __ 99 _ 96 _ 1 ___ tplbge (19) ______________ 98 _ 100 __ 99 _ 100 __________________________________ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 4 ____________ 5 _ 2 ___ biodhokie (17) ___________ 97 _ 100 __ 99 _ 102 ___________________________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 6 ___________ 6 _ 3 ___ GATech (23) _____________ 98 __ 98 __ 98 __ 99 ___________________________________ 1 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 3 ____________ 7 _ 4 ___ mattie g (4) ______________98 _ 100 __ 98 _ 101 __________________________________ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 5 _____________ 7 _ 5 ___ nw baltimore wx (8) ______98 __ 97 __ 98 __ 99 ___________________________________ 1 ___ 3 ___ 1 ___ 3 ____________ 8 _ 6 ___ A777 (21) _______________ 100 _ 100 _ 100 _ 100 __________________________________ 3 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 4 _____________ 8 _ 7 ___ MNTransplant (19) ______ 99 __ 99 _ 101 _ 101 __________________________________ 2 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 5 _____________ 10 _ 8 ___ Roger Ramjet (22) ______ 99 _ 100 _ 101 _ 102 ___________________________________2 ___ 0 ___ 2 ___ 6 ____________ 10 _ 9 ___ WxWatcher007 (20) ____ 99 __ 97 _ 100 _ 101 __________________________________ 2 ___ 3 ___ 1 ___ 5 _____________ 11 _10 ___Wxdavis5784 (11) _______ 99 _ 100 _ 103 _ 101 __________________________________ 2 ___ 0 ___ 4 ___ 5 ____________ 11 _11 ___GramaxRefugee (12) ____ 101 _ 102 _ 102 _ 100 ___________________________________4 ___ 2 ___ 3 ___ 4 ____________ 13 _12 ___storm pc (9) ____________ 101 __ 99 _ 103 _ 101 __________________________________ 4 ___ 1 ___ 4 ___ 5 _____________ 14 (13) _ Consensus (mean of 26) _101 _ 101 _ 102 _ 102 ___________________________________ 4 ___ 1 ___ 3 ___ 6 ____________ 14 _13 ___CAPE (1) ________________ 102 _ 100 _ 103 _ 103 __________________________________ 5 ___ 0 ___ 4 ___ 7 ___________ 16 _14 ___WxUSAF (7) _____________102 _ 100 _ 103 _ 103 __________________________________ 5 ___ 0 ___ 4 ___ 7 ___________ 16 _15 ___NorthArlington101 (14) _ 101 _ 100 _ 103 _ 104 _________________________________ 4 ___ 0 ___ 4 ___ 8 ____________ 16 _16 ___yoda (15) _______________ 102 _ 100 _ 102 _ 104 _________________________________ 5 ___ 0 ___ 3 ___ 8 ____________ 16 _17 ___toolsheds (16) __________ 104 _ 100 _ 104 _ 101 __________________________________ 7 ___ 0 ___ 5 ___ 5 ____________ 17 _18 ___Weather53 (25) __________102 _ 101 _ 103 _ 103 ___________________________________ 5 ___ 1 ___ 4 ___ 7 ___________ 17 _19 ___Roger Smith (--) _________101 _ 102 _ 103 _ 104 __________________________________ 4 ___ 2 ___ 4 ___ 8 ___________ 18 _20 ___Rhino16 (3) _____________ 103 _ 101 _ 101 _ 105 __________________________________ 6 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 9 ____________ 18 _21 ___SnowenOutThere (24) ___101 _ 104 _ 103 _ 103 __________________________________ 4 ___ 4 ___ 4 ___ 7 ___________ 19 _22 ___wxdude64 (5) ___________ 103 _ 101 _ 103 _ 104 __________________________________ 6 ___ 1 ___ 4 ___ 8 ___________ 19 _23 ___Prince Frederick Wx (10)_ 102 _ 100 _ 105 _ 104 ___________________________________ 5 ___ 0 ___ 6 ___ 8 __________ 19 _24 ___H2O (13) ________________102 _ 103 _ 104 _ 103 __________________________________ 5 ___ 3 ___ 5 ___ 7 ___________ 20 _25 ___MillvilleWx (6) ___________105 _ 102 _ 102 _ 103 __________________________________ 8 ___ 2 ___ 3 ___ 7 ____________ 20 _26 ___vastateofmind (11) ______104 _ 102 _ 104 _ 103 __________________________________ 7 ___ 2 ___ 5 ___ 7 ____________ 21 _27 ___George BM (2) __________107 _ 106 _ 107 _ 108 __________________________________10 ___ 6 ___ 8 ___ 12 ___________ 36 ___________________________________________________________________ (Numbers in brackets after forecaster name indicate order of entry). ===================================================== Congrats to tplbge (or as I cannot pronounce your name and need something familiar, triple bogey). Brave try for second place biodhokie who got three of four right on. Tiebreaker required to establish third place (GA tech) and fourth (mattie g). _ until next summer, stay cool _

This contest is now declared final, congrats to ** wxallannj in first place (total 30 error points) ** hudsonvalley21 in second (total 32 error points) ** BKViking in third (total 33 error points) (Tom only forecaster to have two of the ten locations without error points, most of us had one).

Tracking actual scores as the contest approaches its end phase The scoring system was explained earlier, basically you lose only half as many points from your base score of 100 for named storm errors as you lose for hurricane and major errors. The named storm error reduction is one quarter the value of (error) + (error squared). For example, you lose 1.5 for an error of 2 ... ( 2 + 4 ) / 4 That same error for hurricanes or majors would cost you three points ( 2 + 4) / 2. To make the scoring a bit easier to follow, I will arbitrarily assign 40 to named storms and 30 each to hurricanes and majors. You can go into negative scoring territory, but no forecast is currently there. This is the same as applying all three reductions to 100 but gives us a visual comparison for the three categories. These scores are now in scoring order for the current count. Tracking the scores as we approach the end, you will see your current score from the known count (sometimes including 2-4 day forecast developments which will be tagged and adjusted if they don't come to pass). Then off to the right of your current score will be potential scores for the next two systems in whatever combination they appear -- they can only add 1 0 0, 1 1 0, 1 1 1, then 2 0 0, 2 1 0, 2 1 1, 2, 2, 0, 2 2 1 or 2 2 2 so there will be nine potential scores. And of course, there could be more than two more systems so even this won't tell you everything about final outcomes (by November it might). note: scores in the table currently based on 21/7/4 after Wanda's recent designation. ... also 21/8/4 score was retained in the table in case Wanda became a hurricane (it did not but I left the column in for your interest, or in case there's a last minute re-classification about that or any other system in the contest year) ... those would become current contest scores if so and 21/7/4 scores would be removed from table. __ __ FC = future counts (possible) for remaining 22 storm outcomes ___ ___ ___ current contest scores are in green (first total scoring column) FORECASTER __________ Predictions __ Scores (40 30 30 TOT) 2174 (2184) __ 2274 2284 2285 2294 2295 1 wxdude64 _____________19 ___ 7 ___ 4 _____ 38.5 _30 __30__ 98.5 _ (97.5)___ 97.0_ 96.0_ 95.0_ 94.0_ 93.0_ 2 J_Keith_Lee ___________ 21 ___ 9 ___ 4 ______40 __ 27 __30__ 97.0_ (99.0) ___ 96.5_ 98.5_ 97.5_ 99.5_ 98.5_ t3 IntenseWind002 _______22 ___ 9 ___ 4 _____39.5 _27 __30 __ 96.5_ (98.5) ___97.0_ 99.0_98.0_100.0_99.0 t3 WxWatcher007 _______ 20 ___ 9 ___ 4 ______39.5 _27 __30__ 96.5_ (98.5)___ 95.5_ 97.5_ 96.5_ 98.5_ 97.5_ t3 BKViking ______________ 20 ___ 9 ___ 4 _____ 39.5 _27 __30__ 96.5_ (98.5) ___ 95.5_ 97.5_ 96.5_ 98.5_ 97.5_ t5* snowlover2 ____________18 ___ 8 ___ 4 ______ 37 __29 __30__ 96.0 _ (97.0)___ 94.0_ 95.0_ 94.0_ 94.0_ 93.0_ t5* Iceresistance __________18 ___ 7 ___ 3 _______ 37 __30 __29__ 96.0 _ (95.0)___ 94.0_ 93.0_ 91.0_ 91.0_ 89.0_ 7 NCforecaster89 _______19 ___ 9 ___ 4 _______38.5 _27 __30 __ 95.5_ (97.5)___ 94.0_ 96.0_ 95.0_ 97.0_ 96.0_ 8 Tom ___________________19 ___ 9 ___ 3 _______ 38.5 _27 __29 __ 94.5_ (96.5)___ 93.0_ 95.0_ 93.0_ 96.0_ 94.0_ 9 TexMexWx ___________ 18 ___ 9 ___ 4 _______ 38.5 _27 __30 __ 94.0 _ (96.0)__ 92.0_ 94.0_ 93.0_ 95.0_ 94.0_ (t 9) _ "Expert consensus" _17 ___ 8 ___ 4 _______35 __ 29 __30 __ 94.0 _(95.0)___ 91.5_ 92.5_ 91.5_ 91.5_ 90.5_ t10 Newman _____________ 21 __ 10 ___ 5 ________40 __ 24 __29__ 93.0_ (96.0) ___ 92.5_ 95.5_ 96.5_ 97.5_ 98.5_ t10 CatLady ______________ 18 ___ 9 ___ 3 _______ 37 __ 27 __29__ 93.0 _(95.0) ___ 91.0_ 93.0_ 91.0_ 94.0_ 92.0_ t10 TARCweather _________ 17 ___ 8 ___ 3 _______ 35 __ 29 __29__ 93.0_ (94.0) ___ 90.5_ 91.5_ 89.5_ 90.5_ 88.5_ ____ NOAA median _____ 16.5 ___8 ___ 4 ________ 36.1__29 __30__ 92.8 _(93.8)___ 90.1 _ 91.1_ 90.1 _ 90.1_ 89.1_ __ consensus __________ 19.2 _ 9.8 __ 4.7 _____ 38.7_24.7 _29.4__ 92.8_(95.6)___ 91.4_ 94.2_ 94.6_ 96.0_ 96.4_ t13 RJay _________________20 __ 10 ___ 5 _______ 39.5 _24 __29 __ 92.5_ (95.5) ___ 91.5_ 94.5_ 95.5_ 96.5_ 97.5_ t13 magpiemaniac _______19 __ 10 ___ 4 _______ 38.5 _24 __30 __ 92.5_ (95.5) ___ 91.0_ 94.0_ 93.0_ 96.0_ 95.0_ 15 cptcatz ________________17 ___ 9 ___ 4 _______ 35 __ 27 __30 __ 92.0 _(94.0)___ 89.5_ 91.5_ 90.5_ 92.5_ 91.5_ 16 Looking to the skies __ 19 ___ 8 ___ 7 _______ 38.5 _ 29 __24 __ 91.5_ (92.5)___ 90.0_ 91.0_ 94.0_ 90.0_ 93.0_ 17 NorthHillsWx _________ 17 ___ 9 ___ 3 ________ 35 __ 27 __29 __ 91.0 _(93.0)___ 88.5_ 90.5_ 88.5_ 91.5_ 89.5_ 18 Rhino16 _______________ 17 __ 10 ___ 4 _______ 35 __ 24 __30 __ 89.0 _ (92.0)___ 86.5_ 89.5_ 88.5_ 91.5_ 90.5_ 19 Yoda __________________ 16 ___ 9 ___ 5 _______ 32.5 __27__29 __ 88.5 _(90.5)___ 85.5_ 87.5_ 88.5_ 88.5_ 89.5_ 20 Ldub ___________________19 __ 11 ___ 5 ________ 38.5 _ 20__29 __ 87.5_ (91.5) ___ 86.0_ 90.0_ 91.0_ 93.0_ 94.0_ 21 hudsonvalley21 _______ 21 __ 11 ___ 6 ________ 40 __ 20__ 27 __ 87.0_ (91.0) ___ 86.5_ 90.5_ 92.5_ 93.5_ 95.5_ t22 LoboLeader1 __________15 ___ 9 ___ 4 ________ 29.5__27__30 __ 86.5 _(88.5)___ 83.0_ 85.0_ 84.0_ 86.0_ 85.0_ t22 Southmdwatcher _____ 22 __ 11 ___ 6 ________ 39.5 _20 __27 __ 86.5_ (90.5) ___ 87.0_ 91.0_ 93.0_ 94.0 _96.0 24 Brian5671 _____________ 20 __ 12 ___ 2 ________ 39.5 _ 15 __27 __ 81.5_ (86.5) ___ 80.5_ 85.5_ 82.5_ 89.5_ 86.5_ 25 DonSutherland1 ________19 __ 12 ___ 6 ________ 38.5 _ 15 __27 __ 80.5_ (85.5) ___ 79.0_ 84.0_ 86.0_ 88.0_ 90.0_ 26 Roger Smith ___________ 23 __ 13 ___ 7 ________ 38.5 __ 9 __24 __ 71.5_ (77.5) ___ 72.5_ 78.5_ 81.5_ 83.5 _86.5 27 Prospero _______________14 __ 11 ___ 7 __________26___ 20 __24 __ 70.0 _(74.0)___ 66.0_ 70.0_ 73.0_ 73.0_ 76.0_ 28 Tezeta _________________ 23 __ 14 ___ 7 ________38.5 __ 2 __24 __ 64.5_ (71.5) ___ 65.5_ 72.5_ 75.5_ 78.5 _81.5 29 Macintosh _____________ 25 __ 14 __ 10 _______ 35 ___ 2 ___ 9 __ 46.0_ (53.0) ___ 48.0_ 55.0_ 61.0_ 61.0 _67.0 (scoring S H M counts) ______________________________________2174 _ (2184) _____2274_2284_2285_2294_2295_ reductions for error (H, M 30) 1 3 6 10 15 21 28 (S 40 minus 0.5 1.5 3.0 5.0 7.5 10.5 14.0) * note: ranks for non-member forecasts (NOAA, expert consensus, and consensus) do not change contest ranks. * note also ranks after t3 (three forecasts) jog by one position upward, as two of the forecasts in that group of three are identical, so as a contest entrant points out, further ranks should perhaps be for distinct forecast entries rather than numbers of people. So there are 29 ranks now for 30 forecasts. Future possible count scoring leaders in bold type. _________________________________________________________________ THIS TABLE WILL BE UPDATED AFTER EACH NEW STORM. Oct 31 update _ The count is now 21 7 4 as shown, and remaining options for 21 8 4 and five possible outcomes for 22 storms are now in the table. The situation for counts of 23 can be reviewed in another post (scroll down) at this point.

With regard to that listing of 80 degree seasons at NYC, here's a breakdown of the 30-year averages. This shows both 1871-1900 and 1869-1900 which have the same averages within 0.1 (A), then 1901-30 (B), 1931-60 (C), 1961-90 (D) and 1991-2020 (E). The overall average of 152 seasons is also shown in bold type (F). The calendar dates shown are for non leap years, go one day earlier to apply to leap years. I derived an actual average duration (of 80 and + seasons) for all leap years and found that it was almost five days shorter (duration) than the overall data, so one would expect the actual leap year data set to have narrower extremes. However the sample size may account for that kind of internal variation in the data. 80 and + seasons ________________________________________ >80 seasons ____________________ _____________ A ______ B ____ C ____ D ____ E ____ F ________ A _____ B _____ C _____ D _____ E _____ F start date _ May 3 _ Apr 30 _ Apr 30 _ Apr 21 _ Apr 20 _ Apr 27 <<>>May 6 _ May 4 __ Apr 30 _ Apr 22 _ Apr 23 _ Apr 29 end date __ Sep 24 _Sep 30 _Oct 10 _ Oct 5 _ Sep 30 _ Oct 2 <<..>>Sep 19 _ Sep 28 _ Oct 7 __ Oct 3 __ Sep 26 _ Sep 28 duration ___ 143 __ 153 ___ 162 ___ 166 __ 162 __ 157 <<....>> _135 __ 146 ___ 159 ___ 163 __ 154 __ 151 __________________ Some interesting trends emerge from this. The season was getting longer until around the 1960s, but while the onset continued to advance or at least remain static, the end of these seasons began to pull back towards the earlier termination dates seen around the second interval 1901-30. My guess is that it won't continue to do that for 2021-50, but the phenomenon of record warmth in late autumn seems to have peaked around the 1960s while that of early spring warmth has shown a tendency to be more evenly distributed since about 1930. The differential between 80 and + and the >80 seasons was smaller when they lasted longer, and I noticed while compiling the table a tendency for quite a few years to end with a much higher reading than 80, a few actually ended their 80+ or >80 seasons with a 90 degree reading. By the way, the longest 90 deg season was way back in 1927 (first date Apr 20, 90F and last Oct 2, 90F). That was a season of 164 days. The second longest was 1939 (first May 7, 92F and last Oct 10, 91F). That season was 155 days. 2010 went from Apr 7 to Sep 9 but had an 89 deg reading on Sep 26.

Is there any research on connections between the increasing greenhouse gas concentrations and the El Nino or more broadly the SOI ? Reason I ask is that a lot of the more recent warmings (since 1980) seem to be driven by strong El Nino events, so is there any reason to think that greenhouse gases can influence that cycle? Not trying to say that the recent warming is just a natural product of strong El Nino events because I can see the broader warming signal but it would be interesting to know if anyone has looked into this aspect. Also, related question, what are peoples' thoughts on air mass modification? Is the warming entirely due to a shift in air mass frequency or is it a combination of that and air mass modification? My subjective opinion on that is that air masses are being modified at a lower rate than the overall warming, which relies more on the shift in frequency. As we saw in Feb 2015, if cold arctic air can dominate a month, then it turns out almost as cold as record months of the past. But that frequency of arctic air that we "enjoyed" (perhaps the wrong word) up to around the early 1980s has definitely dropped off in recent decades.

1882 is probably the winner, at NYC the first 80F reading was May 31 and the last one was Sep 20. That is 111 days using the counting method in the tables already posted by others (it works out to the number of days between the end dates so not including either of them, if you included both of the end dates, then 113 days). 1875 is probably second, at NYC the first 80F reading was May 20 and the last one was September 10. That is 112 days (or 114 counting both end dates). That latter (Sept 10) is not an extreme earliest date for termination of the 80 or + season, 1902 (Sept 2), 1876 (Sept 4) and 1871 (Sept 6) finished earlier, but 1871 had a much earlier onset with 85F on April 8 and therefore longer seasons. The extreme for latest onset appears to be June 7 (1924) followed by May 31 (1882); also later than 1875 was May 25 (in 1873) but that season terminated on Sep 29 (lasting 15 days longer than 1882), also 1898 started its season on May 20 but went into early October to reach 137 days. 1988 began its season May 23, 1904 began its season on May 24, 1916 and 1946 on May 25, 1920 and 1999 on May 28. In 1869 with some missing data but likely much cooler than 80F from maps available, the first 80 deg day is also May 13 and the first to exceed 80 was May 26. 1883 joins the group for the >80F short duration because the season ended in late August but after some very cool weather for most of the autumn an outlier 80F occurred on Oct 14 so this year did not make the first table, as I show in the following tables (80 or higher seasons shorter than 135 days in table 1, >80 seasons shorter than 125 days in table 2): (I have used the same convention for counting dates between the first and last 80 or + and (>80) as shown in other tables above, which I worked out to be the number of days between the start and end date, not counting either of them. The actual duration of the season adds two days (the end points) to my values and those in the other tables above.) Table 1: SHORTEST DURATIONS OF (80 or +)F MAX at NYC 1882 ________ 80 May 31 ___ 84 Sep 20 __________ 111d (152-262) 1875 ________ 80 May 20 ___ 80 Sep 10 ___________112d (141-252) 1887 ________ 85 May 11 ___ 85 Sep 7 ____________ 118 d (132-249) 1876 ________ 87 May 7 ____ 80 Sep 4 ____________119d (129-247)* 1924 ________80 June 7 ____ 81 Oct 6 ____________ 120d (160-279) 1877 ________ 82 May 15 ___ 81 Sep 16 ___________ 123d (136-258) 1904 ________ 86 May 24 ___ 80 Sep 25 __________ 123d (146-268)* 1984 ________ 81 May 23 __ 86 Sep 25 ___________ 124d (145-268)* 1873 ________ 80 May 25 ___ 80 Sep 29 __________ 126d (146-271) 1966 ________ 83 May 6 ____ 82 Sep 11 ___________ 127d (127-253) 1971 ________ 84 May 11 ____ 86 Sep 16 __________ 127d (132-258) (78 on Oct 29) 1988 ________ 83 May 23 ___ 80 Sep 28 __________ 127d (145-271)* 1899 ________ 84 May 1 ____ 82 Sep 8 ____________ 129d (122-250) (79 on Oct 18) 1911 _________ 83 May 18 ___ 86 Sep 25 __________ 129d (139-267) 1932 ________ 83 May 16 ___ 86 Sep 23 __________ 129d (138-266)* 2020 ________ 80 May 3 ___ 82 Sep 10 ___________ 129d (125-253)* 1869 ________ 80 May 12 ___ 86 Sep 20 __________ 130d (133-262) 1893 ________ 80 May 11 ___ 82 Sep 19 ___________ 130d (132-261) 1902 ________ 84 Apr 22 ___ 82 Sep 2 ____________ 132d (113-244) 1906 ________ 84 May 13 ___ 80 Sep 23 __________ 132d (134-265) 1907 ________ 85 May 14 ___ 83 Sep 24 __________ 132d (134-265) 1889 ________ 81 May 6 ____ 82 Sep 17 ___________ 133d (127-259) 1918 ________ 90 May 6 ____ 80 Sep 17 ___________ 133d (127-259) 1890 ________ 80 May 1 ____ 83 Sep 13 ___________ 134d (122-255) 1933 ________ 80 May 15 ___90 Sep 27 ___________ 134d (136-269) 1888 ________ 83 Apr 29 ___ 80 Sep 12 ___________ 135d (121-255)* * leap year, date count one higher for calendar dates Table 2: SHORTEST DURATIONS OF >80F MAX at NYC __ duration (dates between end points) 1873 ________ 87 May 28 ___ 87 Sep 5 ___________ 99d (149-247) 1882 ________ 83 June 7 ___ 84 Sep 20 _________ 104d (159-262) 1883 ________ 81 May 8 ____ 88 Aug 23 _________ 106d (129-234) 1999 ________ 81 May 28 ___ 81 Sep 12 _________ 106d (149-254) 1875 ________ 86 May 21 ___ 84 Sep 9 __________ 110d (142-251) 1924 _______ 81 June 15 ___ 81 Oct 6 ___________ 112d (168-279) 1876 ________ 87 May 7 ____ 87 Sep 1 ___________ 116d (129-244)* 1869 ________ 86 May 26 ___ 86 Sep 20 ________ 116d (147-262) 2020 ________84 May 15 ___ 82 Sep 10 _________ 117d (137-253)* 1887 ________ 85 May 11 ___ 85 Sep 7 ___________118d (132-249) 1893 ________ 85 May 21 ___ 82 Sep 19 _________120d (142-261) 1900 ________ 84 May 14 ___ 86 Sep 12 ________ 120d (135-254) 1918 ________ 90 May 6 ____ 81 Sep 4 __________ 120d (127-246) 1890 ________ 81 May 14 ___ 83 Sep 13 _________ 121d (135-255) 1908 ________ 81 May 12 ___ 81 Sep 11 __________ 121d (134-254)* 1888 ________ 83 Apr 29 ___ 83 Aug 30 _________ 122d (121-242)* 1901 ________ 85 May 24 ___ 81 Sep 24 _________ 122d (145-266) 1988 ________ 83 May 23 ___ 82 Sep 23 _________122d (145-266)* 1877 ________ 82 May 15 ___ 81 Sep 16 __________123d (136-258) 1984 ________ 81 May 23 __ 86 Sep 25 _________ 124d (145-268)* * leap year, date count is one higher than other years for same calendar dates ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Earliest and Latest 80 deg max in graphical format (advance of the extremes) _________ 1871 Apr 8 ________ 1879 Oct 16 _______ 1892 Apr 4 __________1897 Oct 16 _____ 1917 Apr 1** __________ 1908 Oct 16 _____ ** 1910 Mar 30 (78) close __1921 Mar 21 ___________________ 1919 Oct 28 _ 1945 Mar 20 ___________________ 1946 Oct 31** ___ **1938 Nov 7 (78) close _ (1990 Mar 13) ___________________1950 Nov 2 (1974 Nov 1) _ 1990 Mar 13 ______________________ 1993 Nov 15 close out of season attempts to stretch the limits ... _ 79 Mar 10, 2016 ___________________ 77 Nov 20, 1985 _ 78 Feb 21, 2018 ____________________ 75 Dec 7, 1998 ============================================== List of the longest seasons for 80 or higher, in successive increases over past seasons 166d _ 1881 _ Apr 24 to Oct 8 168d _ 1891 _ Apr 19 to Oct 5 173d _ 1892 _ Apr 4 to Sep 25 174d _ 1914 _ Apr 19 to Oct 11 176d _ 1919 _ May 4 to Oct 28 192d _ 1921 _ Mar 21 to Sep 30 195d _ 1928 _ Apr 5 to Oct 18 212d _ 1945 _ Mar 20 to Oct 19 (207d)_1963 _ Apr 2 to Oct 27 214d _ 1990 _ Mar 13 to Oct 14 ________________________________________ Other seasons 180d or longer: 1985 (199); 1993 (197); 1961 (187); 1968, 1974 (186); 1967 (185); 1938, 1942 (184); 1955, 1959, 1998, 2016 (183); 1960 (182); 1979, 2011, 2017 (181); 1922 (180) To tie the record set in 1990, 2021 will need to record 80 F or higher on October 27 (first reading was 82F Mar 26). To match fourth place 1985, 2021 will need to record 80F or higher on October 12. _________________________________________ Most of the short seasons were before 1905, but a few have happened in more recent years. Oddly, some rather hot summers join this list (1901, 1966 and 1988 can all be found). Hoping this graph will copy from my excel file where I did this analysis. 1869 - 2020 Duration (days) of 80 deg seasons (blue is 80 or +, orange is >80) ... Many years have the same durations for these (if end points are >80)

CONTINUED REPORT ON WEEKLY EXTREMES for WEEKS ENDING IN DECEMBER Intervals _______________ Highest values 1869-2021 __ Lowest values 1869-2021 Nov 25 - Dec 1 __________ (max) 63.29 _ 2001 _____ (max) 31.71 _ 1903 (31.86 1882) Nov 25 - Dec 1 ___________ (min) 51.57 _ 2001*_____ (min) 21.14 _ 1871 (21.71 1875) _ * 47.14 _ 2011 Nov 25 - Dec 1 __________ (mean) 57.43 _ 2001 _____ (mean) 27.50 _ 1903 (28.14 1871) _ the wettest week ending Dec 1 was 1889 (3.44"). Nov 26 - Dec 2 __________ (max) 61.43 _ 2001 _____ (max) 32.57 _ 1882 (32.86 1903) Nov 26 - Dec 2 ___________ (min) 50.14 _ 2001 _____ (min) 19.00 _ 1875 (20.14 1871) Nov 26 - Dec 2 __________ (mean) 55.79 _ 2001 _____ (mean) 26.79 _ 1871 (27.57 1875) _ the wettest week ending Dec 2 was 1996 (3.80") _ included 0.1" snow. Nov 27 - Dec 3 __________ (max) 60.71 _ 1998*_____ (max) 31.71 _ 1871 _ * 60.43 _ 2001 Nov 27 - Dec 3 ___________ (min) 49.00 _ 2001 _____ (min) 16.43 _ 1875 (19.71 1871) Nov 27 - Dec 3 __________ (mean) 54.79 _ 2001 _____ (mean) 24.79 _ 1875 (25.71 1871) _ the wettest week ending Dec 3 was 1889 (3.17") _ included 0.5" snow. Nov 28 - Dec 4 __________ (max) 64.29 _ 1998*_____ (max) 30.86 _ 1871 _ * 61.57 _ 2001 Nov 28 - Dec 4 ___________ (min) 49.29 _ 1998*_____ (min) 16.00 _ 1875 (19.71 1871) _ * 49.14 _ 2001 Nov 28 - Dec 4 __________ (mean) 56.79 _ 1998* _____ (mean) 24.07 _ 1875 _ *55.36 _ 2001 _ the wettest week ending Dec 4 was 2016 (3.00"). Nov 29 - Dec 5 __________ (max) 64.29 _ 1998*_____ (max) 30.86 _ 1875 _ * 62.29 _ 2001 Nov 29 - Dec 5 ___________ (min) 51.00 _ 1998*_____ (min) 16.14 _ 1875 (19.00 1976) _ *49.43 _ 2001 Nov 29 - Dec 5 __________ (mean) 57.64 _ 1998*_____ (mean) 23.50 _ 1875 _ * 55.86 _ 2001 _ the wettest week ending Dec 5 was 2016 (3.19"). Nov 30 - Dec 6 __________ (max) 65.14 _ 1998*_____ (max) 29.57 _ 1875 _ * 64.29 _ 2001, 61.43 _ 1982 Nov 30 - Dec 6 ___________ (min) 52.43 _ 1982*_____ (min) 19.00 _ 1875 (19.29 1976) _ * 51.14 _ 1998 Nov 30 - Dec 6 __________ (mean) 58.14 _ 1998*_____ (mean) 24.29 _ 1875 _ * 56.93 _ 1982, 57.64 _ 2001 _ the wettest week ending Dec 6 was 1996 (3.12"). Dec 1 - Dec 7 ___________ (max) 67.29 _ 1998*_____ (max) 28.71 _ 1886 _ * 63.43 _ 2001, 61.57 _ 1982 Dec 1 - Dec 7 ____________ (min) 52.29 _ 1982*_____ (min) 15.43 _ 1926 _ * 51.14 _ 1998 Dec 1 - Dec 7 ___________ (mean) 59.21 _ 1998* _____ (mean) 23.50 _ 1926 _ * 56.93 _ 1982, 56.64 _ 2001 _ the wettest week ending Dec 7 was 1996 (4.48") _ this was the highest weekly total ending on any day in December. Dec 2 - Dec 8 ___________ (max) 65.86 _ 1998*_____ (max) 27.43 _ 1886 _ * 60.71_1982, 60.43_2001, 60.00_1951 Dec 2 - Dec 8 ____________ (min) 51.29 _ 1982*_____ (min) 15.43 _ 1926 (17.14 1886) _ * 50.57 _ 1998 Dec 2 - Dec 8 ___________ (mean) 58.21 _ 1998*_____ (mean) 22.29 _ 1886 (23.21 1926) _ * 56.00 _ 1982 _ the wettest week ending Dec 8 was 1996 (3.51") Dec 3 - Dec 9 ___________ (max) 63.57 _ 1998*_____ (max) 28.00 _ 1886 _ * 59.86 _ 1951 Dec 3 - Dec 9 ____________ (min) 49.71 _ 1998*_____ (min) 16.57 _ 1926 _ * 47.43 _ 1951 Dec 3 - Dec 9 ___________ (mean) 56.64 _ 1998*_____ (mean) 23.29 _ 1886 (24.07 1926) _ * 53.64 _ 1951 _ the wettest week ending Dec 9 was 2014 (4.37") Dec 4 - Dec 10 __________ (max) 60.71 _ 1998*_____ (max) 30.57 _ 1886 _ * 60.14 _ 1953 Dec 4 - Dec 10 ___________ (min) 47.86 _ 1998*_____ (min) 18.57 _ 1926 _ * 46.86 _ 1951 Dec 4 - Dec 10 __________ (mean) 54.29 _ 1998 _____ (mean) 25.36 _ 1886, 1926 _ the wettest week ending Dec 10 was 2014 (4.39") _ included 1.0" snow. Dec 5 - Dec 11 __________ (max) 58.86 _ 1953 _____ (max) 29.57 _ 1880 Dec 5 - Dec 11 ___________ (min) 45.43 _ 1951*_____ (min) 17.71 _ 1880 _ * 43.14 _ 1923 Dec 5 - Dec 11 __________ (mean) 50.93 _ 1951 _____ (mean) 23.64 _ 1880 _ the wettest week ending Dec 11 was 2014 (4.40") _ included 1.0" snow. Dec 6 - Dec 12 __________ (max) 57.29 _ 1953*_____ (max) 28.00 _ 1880 _ * 56.86 _ 2015, 55.71 _ 1966 Dec 6 - Dec 12 ___________ (min) 45.43 _ 2015*____ (min) 15.43 _ 1880 (18.71 1876) _ * 42.86 _ 1966 Dec 6 - Dec 12 __________ (mean) 51.14 _ 2015 _____ (mean) 21.71 _ 1880 (22.71 1934) _ the wettest week ending Dec 12 was 2014 (3.89") _ included 1.0" snow. Dec 7 - Dec 13 __________ (max) 59.71 _ 1946*_____ (max) 27.00 _ 1880 _ * 58.86 _ 2015, 58.43 _ 1911 Dec 7 - Dec 13 ___________ (min) 47.71 _ 2015 _____ (min) 15.86 _ 1917, 1934 Dec 7 - Dec 13 __________ (mean) 53.29 _ 2015 _____ (mean) 21.71 _ 1880 (22.21 1934) _ the wettest week ending Dec 13 was 1983 (3.62") Dec 8 - Dec 14 __________ (max) 60.71 _ 2015 _____ (max) 28.14 _ 1958 (28.57 1902) Dec 8 - Dec 14 ___________ (min) 49.29 _ 2015 _____ (min) 15.57 _ 1917 (16.57 _ 1960) Dec 8 - Dec 14 __________ (mean) 55.00 _ 2015 _____ (mean) 22.93 _ 1934 (23.50 _ 1960) _ the wettest week ending Dec 14 was 2019 (3.93") _ included 0.2" snow. Dec 9 - Dec 15 __________ (max) 63.43 _ 2015 _____ (max) 27.86 _ 1962 (28.14 _ 1917, 1958) Dec 9 - Dec 15 ___________ (min) 51.00 _ 2015 _____ (min) 14.29 _ 1917 (16.71 _ 1960) Dec 9 - Dec 15 __________ (mean) 57.21 _ 2015 _____ (mean) 21.21 _ 1917 (22.86 _ 1904) _ the wettest week ending Dec 15 was 2019 (3.93") _ included 0.2" snow. Dec 10 - Dec 16 _________ (max) 63.14 _ 2015* _____ (max) 25.00 _ 1917 _ *56.71_2021 Dec 10 - Dec 16 __________ (min) 51.86 _ 2015*_____ (min) 13.29 _ 1917 (17.43 _ 1962) _ * 43.43 _ 2006 Dec 10 - Dec 16 _________ (mean) 57.50 _ 2015*_____ (mean) 19.14 _ 1917 (22.21 _ 1962) _ * 50.00_2021, 48.50 _ 2006 _ the wettest week ending Dec 16 was 2008 (3.84") _ included 1.0" snow. Dec 11 - Dec 17 _________ (max) 63.00 _ 2015* _____ (max) 26.86 _ 1917 _*58.14_2021 Dec 11 - Dec 17 __________ (min) 51.71 _ 2015*_____ (min) 14.29 _ 1917 (15.71 _ 1943) _ * 44.71_2021, 44.43 _ 2006 Dec 11 - Dec 17 _________ (mean) 57.36 _ 1951*_____ (mean) 20.57 _ 1917 _ *51.43_2021, 49.14 _ 2006 _ the wettest week ending Dec 17 was 1992 (4.02") _ included 0.4" snow. Dec 12 - Dec 18 _________ (max) 62.43 _ 2015*_____ (max) 28.29 _ 1917 _ *_5557_202154.29 _ 1984, 54.14 _ 2006 Dec 12 - Dec 18 __________ (min) 50.00 _ 2015*_____ (min) 16.29 _ 1917 _ * 44.29 _ 2006 Dec 12 - Dec 18 _________ (mean) 56.21 _ 2015*_____ (mean) 22.29 _ 1917 _ *49.71_2021, 49.21 _ 2006 _ the wettest week ending Dec 18 was 1983 (3.75"). Dec 13 - Dec 19 _________ (max) 58.71 _ 2015 _____ (max) 29.00 _ 1945 (29.14 _ 1916) Dec 13 - Dec 19 __________ (min) 47.14 _ 2015*_____ (min) 15.00 _ 1919 _ * 43.14 _ 2006 Dec 13 - Dec 19 _________ (mean) 52.93 _ 2015*_____ (mean) 23.43 _ 1919 _ * 48.36 _ 2006 _ the wettest week ending Dec 19 was 1909 (3.23") _ included 1.0" snow. Dec 14 - Dec 20 _________ (max) 55.29 _ 2015 _____ (max) 27.14 _ 1919 (29.14 _ 1916) Dec 14 - Dec 20 __________ (min) 44.14 _ 2015 _____ (min) 11.57 _ 1919 Dec 14 - Dec 20 _________ (mean) 49.71 _ 2015 _____ (mean) 19.36 _ 1919 _ the wettest week ending Dec 20 was 1936 (2.98") Dec 15 - Dec 21 _________ (max) 53.71 _ 2015*_____ (max) 22.86 _ 1919 (27.57 _ 1963) _ * 52.14_2023 Dec 15 - Dec 21 __________ (min) 42.14 _ 2015 _____ (min) 10.43 _ 1942 Dec 15 - Dec 21 _________ (mean) 47.93 _ 2015 _____ (mean) 17.43 _ 1919 (18.64 _ 1942) _ the wettest week ending Dec 21 was 1973 (4.10") _ included 2.8" snow. Dec 16 - Dec 22 _________ (max) 53.71 _ 1984*_____ (max) 24.29 _ 1919 (26.14 _ 1945) _ * 52.86_2015 Dec 16 - Dec 22 __________ (min) 42.29 _ 1957*_____ (min) 9.29 _ 1942 (11.43 _ 1876) _ * 42.14 _ 2015 Dec 16 - Dec 22 _________ (mean) 47.50 _ 2015*_____ (mean) 18.07 _ 1942 (18.36 _ 1876) _ * 47.29 _ 1984 _ the wettest week ending Dec 22 was 1973 (4.10") _ included 2.8" snow. Dec 17 - Dec 23 _________ (max) 55.71 _ 1990*_____ (max) 23.86 _ 1876 (25.86_1945) _ * 54.43_2015, 54.00_1949 Dec 17 - Dec 23 __________ (min) 43.86 _ 1990*_____ (min) 12.86 _ 1942 (13.43 _ 1876) _ * 43.00_2015, 42.71_1957 Dec 17 - Dec 23 _________ (mean) 49.79 _ 1990*_____ (mean) 18.64 _ 1876 (20.71_1942, 20.86_1945) _ * 48.71_2015 _ the wettest week ending Dec 23 was 1973 (3.70") _ included 1.1" snow. Dec 18 - Dec 24 _________ (max) 57.71 _ 1990*_____ (max) 24.29 _ 1989 (24.86_1876) _ * 56.29_2015, 54.57_1895 Dec 18 - Dec 24 __________ (min) 44.86 _ 2015*_____ (min) 12.57 _ 1989 _ * 43.00_1895, 42.71_1957 Dec 18 - Dec 24 _________ (mean) 50.57 _ 2015*_____ (mean) 18.43 _ 1989 _ * 50.21_1990, 46.64_2013 _ the wettest week ending Dec 24 was 1973 (2.65"). Dec 19 - Dec 25 _________ (max) 57.57 _ 2015*_____ (max) 23.57 _ 1876 (24.14_1989) _ * 54.43_1895, 54.14_1931 Dec 19 - Dec 25 __________ (min) 47.57 _ 2015*_____ (min) 12.29 _ 1989 _ * 45.00_1895, 42.43_1957 Dec 19 - Dec 25 _________ (mean) 52.57 _ 2015*_____ (mean) 18.21 _ 1989 _ * 49.71_1895 _ the wettest week ending Dec 25 was 1973 (2.65"). Dec 20 - Dec 26 _________ (max) 60.29 _ 2015*_____ (max) 25.00 _ 1989 _ * 55.00_1895, 54.00_1891 Dec 20 - Dec 26 __________ (min) 49.29 _ 2015*_____ (min) 11.57 _ 1989 _ * 45.71 _ 1895 Dec 20 - Dec 26 _________ (mean) 54.79 _ 2015*_____ (mean) 18.29 _ 1989 (21.71_1980) _ * 50.36_1895 _ the wettest week ending Dec 26 was 1973 (3.68"). Dec 21 - Dec 27 _________ (max) 62.86 _ 2015*_____ (max) 22.00 _ 1872 (23.43_1989) _ * 54.43_1891, 1895 Dec 21 - Dec 27 __________ (min) 51.00 _ 2015*______ (min) 8.71 _ 1872 _ * 44.29_1895 Dec 21 - Dec 27 _________ (mean) 56.93 _ 2015*_____ (mean) 15.36 _ 1872 (16.71_1989) _ * 49.36_1895 _ the wettest week ending Dec 27 was 1973 (3.43"). Dec 22 - Dec 28 _________ (max) 61.43 _ 2015*_____ (max) 19.57 _ 1872 _ * 54.00_1982 Dec 22 - Dec 28 __________ (min) 50.29 _ 2015 ______ (min) 6.43 _ 1872 Dec 22 - Dec 28 _________ (mean) 55.86 _ 2015 _____ (mean) 13.00 _ 1872 _ the wettest week ending Dec 28 was 1983 (3.43") _ included 1.6" snow. Dec 23 - Dec 29 _________ (max) 59.14 _ 2015*_____ (max) 19.14 _ 1872 _ * 57.57_1982 Dec 23 - Dec 29 __________ (min) 47.57 _ 2015 ______ (min) 8.14 _ 1872 Dec 23 - Dec 29 _________ (mean) 53.36 _ 2015*_____ (mean) 13.64 _ 1872 _ * 49.00_1982 _ the wettest week ending Dec 29 was 1911 (3.78"). Dec 24 - Dec 30 _________ (max) 57.14 _ 1982*_____ (max) 19.57 _ 1872 _ * 56.86_2015 Dec 24 - Dec 30 __________ (min) 45.57 _ 2015 _____ (min) 9.00 _ 1872 Dec 24 - Dec 30 _________ (mean) 51.21 _ 2015*_____ (mean) 14.29 _ 1872 _ * 48.64_1982 _ the wettest week ending Dec 30 was 1911 (4.12"). Dec 25 - Dec 31 _________ (max) 54.86 _ 1982*_____ (max) 20.00 _ 1917 (23.00_1880) _ * 53.71_1936 Dec 25 - Dec 31 __________ (min) 43.57 _ 2023*______ (min) 5.29 _ 1917 _ * 42.57_ 2015 Dec 25 - Dec 31 _________ (mean) 48.00 _ 2015*_____ (mean) 12.64 _ 1917 _ the wettest week ending Dec 31 was 1911 (4.03") _ included 1.5" snow. Benchmark values follow.

CONTINUED REPORT ON WEEKLY EXTREMES for WEEKS ENDING IN NOVEMBER Intervals _______________ Highest values 1869-2021 __ Lowest values 1869-2021 Oct 26 - Nov 1 __________ (max) 75.29 _ 1946*_____ (max) 42.57 _ 1869 _* 72.57_1989 Oct 26 - Nov 1 ___________ (min) 60.43 _ 1946*_____ (min) 32.71 _ 1869 (34.57 1925) _ * 60.29 _ 1971 Oct 26 - Nov 1 __________ (mean) 67.86 _ 1946*_____ (mean) 37.64 _ 1869 _ *66.00 _ 1971 _ the wettest week ending Nov 1 was 1943 (4.30") _ 4.15" in 1973. __ record broken in 2021 (4.48"). Oct 27 - Nov 2 __________ (max) 74.86 _ 1946*_____ (max) 43.00 _ 1869 _* 73.00_1950 Oct 27 - Nov 2 ___________ (min) 61.14 _ 1971*_____ (min) 33.86 _ 1869 (34.00 1925) _ * 60.00 _ 1946 Oct 27 - Nov 2 __________ (mean) 67.43 _ 1946*_____ (mean) 38.43 _ 1869 (40.57 1925) _ * 66.43 _ 1971 _ the wettest week ending Nov 2 was 1973 (4.15"). Oct 28 - Nov 3 __________ (max) 73.57 _ 1946, 1950*__ (max) 44.86 _ 1869 (46.29 1925) _ * 72.14_1982, 71.86_1971 Oct 28 - Nov 3 ___________ (min) 59.71 _ 1971*_____ (min) 33.57 _ 1925 _ * 59.57 _ 1971 Oct 28 - Nov 3 __________ (mean) 66.57 _ 1946*_____ (mean) 39.93 _ 1925 (40.07 1869) _ * 65.79 _ 1971 _ the wettest week ending Nov 3 was 1973 (4.15"). Oct 29 - Nov 4 __________ (max) 74.14 _ 1950*_____ (max) 45.86 _ 1925 _ * 72.86_1982, 71.29_1961 Oct 29 - Nov 4 ___________ (min) 58.57 _ 1946*_____ (min) 34.00 _ 1925 _ * 58.43 _ 1982 Oct 29 - Nov 4 __________ (mean) 65.64 _ 1982*_____ (mean) 39.93 _ 1925 _ * 65.57_1946, 65.36_1950 _ the wettest week ending Nov 4 was 1973 (4.15"). Oct 30 - Nov 5 __________ (max) 73.29 _ 1950*_____ (max) 42.71 _ 1879 _ * 72.43_1982, 72.14_1961 Oct 30 - Nov 5 ___________ (min) 56.43 _ 1974, 1982*__ (min) 32.29 _ 1879 _ * 55.00 _ 1961 Oct 30 - Nov 5 __________ (mean) 64.43 _ 1982*_____ (mean) 37.50 _ 1879 _ * 63.07 _ 1974 _ the wettest week ending Nov 5 was 1894 (3.79"). Oct 31 - Nov 6 __________ (max) 70.00 _ 1950, 1961, 2022 __ (max) 40.14 _ 1879 Oct 31 - Nov 6 ___________ (min) 57.00 _ 2022* ____ (min) 29.71 _ 1879 _ *55.86 _ 1974 Oct 31 - Nov 6 __________ (mean) 63.50 _ 2022*____ (mean) 34.93 _ 1879 _ *62.57 _ 1974, 62.36 _ 1961 _ the wettest week ending Nov 6 was 1894 (3.78"). Nov 1 - Nov 7 ___________ (max) 71.71 _ 2022*__ (max) 40.29 _ 1879 _ * 69.57_1975, 2015, 68.71_1950, 68.29_1938 Nov 1 - Nov 7 ____________ (min) 57.43_ 2022* ___ (min) 29.00 _ 1879 _* 55.29_2015, 54.14_1974, 53.86_1938, 53.71_1975, 53.43_2003, 53.29_1948 Nov 1 - Nov 7 ___________ (mean) 64.57 _ 2022*___ (mean) 34.64 _ 1879 _ * 62.43_2015, 61.64_1975, 61.07_1938, 60.79_1974, 60.14_1961, 60.07_1994,2003 _ the wettest week ending Nov 7 was 1963 (5.04"). Nov 2 - Nov 8 ___________ (max) 72.14 _ 1975* _____ (max) 41.86 _ 1879 _ * 70.43_2022, 69.29_1938 Nov 2 - Nov 8 ____________ (min) 56.86 _ 1975*_____ (min) 29.71 _ 1879 _ * 55.71_2022, 55.00 _ 1938 Nov 2 - Nov 8 ___________ (mean) 64.50 _ 1975*_____ (mean) 35.79 _ 1879 _ * 63.07_2022, 62.14 _ 1938 _ the wettest week ending Nov 8 was 1977 (9.36"). Nov 3 - Nov 9 ___________ (max) 73.14 _ 1975 _____ (max) 43.00 _ 1878 Nov 3 - Nov 9 ____________ (min) 58.00 _ 1975 _____ (min) 32.43 _ 1878 Nov 3 - Nov 9 ___________ (mean) 65.57 _ 1975 _____ (mean) 37.71 _ 1878 _ the wettest week ending Nov 9 was 1977 (9.36"). Nov 4 - Nov 10 ___________ (max) 72.14 _ 1975*__ (max) 43.00 _ 1878 _ * 71.00 _ 2020 Nov 4 - Nov 10 ____________ (min) 58.00 _ 1975 _____ (min) 33.14 _ 1878 Nov 4 - Nov 10 ___________ (mean) 65.07 _ 1975 _____ (mean) 38.07 _ 1878 _ the wettest week ending Nov 10 was 1977 (9.66") _ the highest weekly total in November. Nov 5 - Nov 11 ___________ (max) 72.43 _ 2020*_____ (max) 41.71 _ 1894 (42.71 1933) _ * 70.00 _ 1975 Nov 5 - Nov 11 ____________ (min) 56.86 _ 2020*_____ (min) 32.14 _ 1933 _ * 56.14 _ 1975 Nov 5 - Nov 11 ___________ (mean) 64.64 _ 2020*_____ (mean) 37.43 _ 1933 _ * 63.07 _ 1975 _ the wettest week ending Nov 11 was 1977 (9.56"). Nov 6 - Nov 12 ___________ (max) 72.57 _ 2020 _____ (max) 40.00 _ 1894 Nov 6 - Nov 12 ____________ (min) 56.00 _ 2020 _____ (min) 33.00 _ 1933 Nov 6 - Nov 12 ___________ (mean) 64.29 _ 2020 _____ (mean) 36.86 _ 1894 _ the wettest week ending Nov 12 was 1977 (9.56"). Nov 7 - Nov 13 ___________ (max) 69.71 _ 2020 _____ (max) 41.43 _ 1894 (44.86 1976) Nov 7 - Nov 13 ____________ (min) 54.71 _ 2020 _____ (min) 32.71 _ 2019 (33.29 1976) Nov 7 - Nov 13 ___________ (mean) 62.21 _ 2020 _____ (mean) 37.50 _ 1894 (39.07 1976) _ the wettest week ending Nov 13 was 1977 (9.56"). Nov 8 - Nov 14 ___________ (max) 66.57 _ 2020 _____ (max) 41.86 _ 1894 (44.43 1976) Nov 8 - Nov 14 ____________ (min) 52.71 _ 2020*_____ (min) 30.86 _ 2019 (32.00 1976) _ * 52.29 _ 2006 Nov 8 - Nov 14 ___________ (mean) 59.64 _ 2020 _____ (mean) 37.64 _ 1873 (38.21 1976, 39.07 2019) _ the wettest week ending Nov 14 was 1972 (8.43"). Nov 9 - Nov 15 ___________ (max) 66.43 _ 1879 _____ (max) 40.71 _ 1873 Nov 9 - Nov 15 ____________ (min) 52.29 _ 2006*_____ (min) 30.00 _ 1873 _ * 51.57 _ 1879 Nov 9 - Nov 15 ___________ (mean) 59.00 _ 1879*_____ (mean) 35.36 _ 1873 (38.86 1976) _ * 57.57 _ 2006 _ the wettest week ending Nov 15 was 1892 (4.41"). This included 2.3" snow (the first late autumn weekly max to include snow). Nov 10 - Nov 16 __________ (max) 65.43 _ 1879 _____ (max) 40.29 _ 1873 Nov 10 - Nov 16 ___________ (min) 52.71 _ 2006 _____ (min) 29.00 _ 1933 (29.14 1873) Nov 10 - Nov 16 __________ (mean) 58.07 _ 1879*_____ (mean) 34.71 _ 1873 _ * 57.86 _ 2006 _ the wettest week ending Nov 16 was 1892 (4.50"). The snow reported in the previous interval dropped out of the total. Nov 11 - Nov 17 __________ (max) 65.43 _ 1993*_____ (max) 40.86 _ 1873 _* 64.00_1879 Nov 11 - Nov 17 ___________ (min) 52.29 _ 2006 _____ (min) 27.14 _ 1933 Nov 11 - Nov 17 __________ (mean) 57.93 _ 2006 _____ (mean) 34.29 _ 1933 _ * 56.71 _ 1909 _ the wettest week ending Nov 17 was 1930 (3.61"). Nov 12 - Nov 18 __________ (max) 65.71 _ 1993 _____ (max) 40.43 _ 1873 (40.57 1883, 40.86 1933 ) Nov 12 - Nov 18 ___________ (min) 51.43 _ 2006*_____ (min) 26.29 _ 1883 (30.14 2019) _ * 50.43 _ 1930 Nov 12 - Nov 18 __________ (mean) 57.43 _ 1993*_____ (mean) 33.43 _ 1883 _ * 56.57 _ 2006, 55.93 _ 1902 _ the wettest week ending Nov 18 was 1930 (3.98"). Nov 13 - Nov 19 ___________ (max) 64.71 _ 1993* _____ (max) 38.86 _ 1873 (40.00 1993) _ * 64.57 _ 1928 Nov 13 - Nov 19 ____________ (min) 50.57 _ 2006*_____ (min) 26.71 _ 1883 _ * 50.29 _ 1930 Nov 13 - Nov 19 ___________ (mean) 57.14 _ 1928, 1993 __ (mean) 33.64 _ 1883 (34.07 1933, 37.93 2019) _ the wettest week ending Nov 19 was 1930 (3.98"). Nov 14 - Nov 20 ___________ (max) 65.00 _ 1928 _____ (max) 38.00 _ 1873 (38.57 1933) Nov 14 - Nov 20 ____________ (min) 49.86 _ 1931 _____ (min) 27.29 _ 1883 (27.86 1924) Nov 14 - Nov 20 ___________ (mean) 57.07 _ 1928 _____ (mean) 32.79 _ 1873 (33.14 1933) _ the wettest week ending Nov 20 was 1988 (4.46"). Nov 15 - Nov 21 __________ (max) 67.14 _ 1953 _____ (max) 39.86 _ 1873 (40.43 1880) Nov 15 - Nov 21 ___________ (min) 51.29 _ 1931 _____ (min) 27.29 _ 1873 (27.57 1924) Nov 15 - Nov 21 __________ (mean) 57.07 _ 1953 _____ (mean) 33.57 _ 1873 (34.21 1933) _ the wettest week ending Nov 21 was 1988 (4.46"). Nov 16 - Nov 22 __________ (max) 67.86 _ 1953 _____ (max) 38.00 _ 1880 Nov 16 - Nov 22 ___________ (min) 52.57 _ 1931*_____ (min) 25.43 _ 1880 _ * 49.57 _ 1953 Nov 16 - Nov 22 __________ (mean) 58.71 _ 1953*_____ (mean) 31.71 _ 1880 _ * 57.71 _ 1931 _ the wettest week ending Nov 22 was 1988 (4.46"). 1985 had 3.57". Nov 17 - Nov 23 __________ (max) 68.14 _ 1953 _____ (max) 35.14 _ 1880 Nov 17 - Nov 23 ___________ (min) 53.43 _ 1931*_____ (min) 22.71 _ 1880 _ * 49.86 _ 1953, 48.71 _ 1963 Nov 17 - Nov 23 __________ (mean) 59.21 _ 1931*_____ (mean) 28.93 _ 1880 _ * 59.00 _ 1953 _ the wettest week ending Nov 23 was 1988 (4.46"). Nov 18 - Nov 24 __________ (max) 67.14 _ 1931 _____ (max) 32.43 _ 1880 Nov 18 - Nov 24 ___________ (min) 53.71 _ 1931*_____ (min) 19.57 _ 1880 _ * 49.14 _ 1953 Nov 18 - Nov 24 __________ (mean) 60.43 _ 1931 _____ (mean) 26.00 _ 1880 _ the wettest week ending Nov 24 was 1988 (3.38"). Nov 19 - Nov 25 __________ (max) 66.29 _ 1931*_____ (max) 30.14 _ 1880 _ * 65.71 _ 1979 Nov 19 - Nov 25 ___________ (min) 53.14 _ 1979*_____ (min) 19.57 _ 1880 _ * 52.14 _ 1931 Nov 19 - Nov 25 __________ (mean) 59.43 _ 1979*_____ (mean) 24.86 _ 1880 _ * 59.21 _ 1931 _ the wettest week ending Nov 25 was 1988 (3.38"). Nov 20 - Nov 26 __________ (max) 66.57 _ 1979 _____ (max) 29.43 _ 1880 Nov 20 - Nov 26 ___________ (min) 54.14 _ 1979 _____ (min) 18.86 _ 1880 Nov 20 - Nov 26 __________ (mean) 60.36 _ 1979 _____ (mean) 24.14 _ 1880 _ the wettest week ending Nov 26 was 1988 (3.37"). Nov 21 - Nov 27 __________ (max) 65.57 _ 1979 _____ (max) 28.14 _ 1880^ Nov 21 - Nov 27 ___________ (min) 54.14 _ 1979 _____ (min) 17.71 _ 1880 Nov 21 - Nov 27 __________ (mean) 59.86 _ 1979 _____ (mean) 22.93 _ 1880 _ the wettest week ending Nov 27 was 1878 (3.80"). Nov 22 - Nov 28 __________ (max) 66.14 _ 1979 _____ (max) 28.29 _ 1880 Nov 22 - Nov 28 ___________ (min) 53.71 _ 1979 _____ (min) 18.00 _ 1880 Nov 22 - Nov 28 __________ (mean) 59.93 _ 1979 _____ (mean) 23.14 _ 1880 _ the wettest week ending Nov 28 was 1878 (3.69"). Nov 23 - Nov 29 __________ (max) 64.86 _ 1979*_____ (max) 30.86 _ 1880 _ * 61.71 _ 2011 Nov 23 - Nov 29 ___________ (min) 51.14 _ 1979 _____ (min) 20.43 _ 1880 _ * 52.29 _ 2006 Nov 23 - Nov 29 __________ (mean) 57.71 _ 1979 _____ (mean) 25.64 _ 1880 _ the wettest week ending Nov 29 was 1889 (3.45"). 1971 was similar at 3.42" Nov 24 - Nov 30 __________ (max) 62.14 _ 2001*_____ (max) 32.14 _ 1880 _ * 61.57 _ 2011 Nov 24 - Nov 30 ___________ (min) 51.29 _ 2001*_____ (min) 22.57 _ 1880 _ * 47.14 _ 2011 Nov 24 - Nov 30 __________ (mean) 56.71 _ 2001*_____ (mean) 27.36 _ 1880 (29.79 1938) _ * 54.36 _ 2011 _ the wettest week ending Nov 30 was 1889 (3.45"). 1971 was similar at 3.42" _________________________________________________________________ ^ (1880 low max note: this long spell of very cold weather in late Nov 1880 dominated other years by margins seldom seen in the rest of the data, for example on this coldest weekly interval the second coldest average was nine degrees warmer (37.14 in 1903). The dominance was equally present with overnight lows, the second coldest average for the same interval was once again nine degrees warmer, this time in 1888. Therefore a slightly greater dominance applied to the weekly mean temperatures.)

CONTINUED REPORT ON WEEKLY EXTREMES for WEEKS ENDING IN OCTOBER Intervals _______________ Highest values 1869-2021 __ Lowest values 1869-2021 Sep 25 - Oct 1 __________ (max) 85.43 _ 1881 ____ (max) 59.57 _ 1928 Sep 25 - Oct 1 ___________ (min) 70.00 _ 1881*______ (min) 43.57 _ 1947 _ * 67.14 _ 1959 Sep 25 - Oct 1 __________ (mean) 77.71 _ 1881 ____ (mean) 52.79 _ 1947 (52.86 1928) _ the wettest week ending Oct 1 was 2023 (6.65") _ 2010 (5.22") Sep 26 - Oct 2 __________ (max) 83.43 _ 1881 ____ (max) 60.14 _ 1928 Sep 26 - Oct 2 ___________ (min) 68.86 _ 1881 ______ (min) 43.29 _ 1947 Sep 26 - Oct 2 __________ (mean) 76.14 _ 1881 ____ (mean) 53.00 _ 1947 (53.50 1928) _ the wettest week ending Oct 2 was 2023 (6..06") _ 1913 (5.28") Sep 27 - Oct 3 __________ (max) 82.14 _ 1881 ____ (max) 57.71 _ 1888 Sep 27 - Oct 3 ___________ (min) 67.43 _ 1881 ______ (min) 43.86 _ 1947 Sep 27 - Oct 3 __________ (mean) 74.79 _ 1881 ____ (mean) 51.14 _ 1888 _ the wettest week ending Oct 3 was 2023 (5.86") _ 1913 (5.28") Sep 28 - Oct 4 __________ (max) 82.57 _ 1954 ____ (max) 55.57 _ 1888 Sep 28 - Oct 4 ___________ (min) 66.86 _ 1954 ______ (min) 41.71 _ 1888 Sep 28 - Oct 4 __________ (mean) 74.71 _ 1954*____ (mean) 48.64 _ 1888 _ * 72.50 _ 1959 _ the wettest week ending Oct 4 was 2023 (5.86") _ 1913 (5.28") Sep 29 - Oct 5 __________ (max) 82.71 _ 1922*____ (max) 56.57 _ 1888 _ * 81.43 _ 1927 Sep 29 - Oct 5 ___________ (min) 67.57 _ 1954*______ (min) 42.00 _ 1947 (45.00 1899) _ * 66.29_1898 Sep 29 - Oct 5 __________ (mean) 74.71 _ 1954 ____ (mean) 49.29 _ 1888 _ the wettest week ending Oct 5 was 2023 (5.48") _ 1913 (5.28") Sep 30 - Oct 6 __________ (max) 82.14 _ 1922 ____ (max) 57.57 _ 1899 (57.86 1888) _ * 81.29 _ 1927 Sep 30 - Oct 6 ___________ (min) 66.00 _ 1898 ______ (min) 43.86 _ 1888 (45.00 1899) _ * 65.43 _ 1954 Sep 30 - Oct 6 __________ (mean) 72.64 _ 1954 ____ (mean) 50.86 _ 1888 _ the wettest week ending Oct 6 was 1913 (5.28") Oct 1 - Oct 7 __________ (max) 82.29 _ 1941 ____ (max) 58.00 _ 1899 (59.29 1888) Oct 1 - Oct 7 ___________ (min) 64.71 _ 1898*______ (min) 43.43 _ 1892 _ * 64.29 _ 1941 Oct 1 - Oct 7 __________ (mean) 73.29 _ 1941 ____ (mean) 51.21 _ 1883 (52.07 1888) _ the wettest week ending Oct 7 was 1913 (5.28") Oct 2 - Oct 8 __________ (max) 81.71 _ 1941, 2007 __ (max) 58.29 _ 1889 (58.71 1888) Oct 2 - Oct 8 ___________ (min) 65.57 _ 2007*______ (min) 43.14 _ 1889 _ * 64.29 _ 1898 Oct 2 - Oct 8 __________ (mean) 73.64 _ 2007* ____ (mean) 50.71 _ 1889 (51.36 1883) _ * 72.36 _ 1941 _ the wettest week ending Oct 8 was 1903 (4.78") Oct 3 - Oct 9 __________ (max) 82.29 _ 2007*____ (max) 55.86 _ 1888 _ * 80.86 _ 1941 Oct 3 - Oct 9 ___________ (min) 65.86 _ 2007 ______ (min) 42.29 _ 1889 Oct 3 - Oct 9 __________ (mean) 74.07 _ 2007*____ (mean) 49.57 _ 1888 (50.21 1889) _ * 72.50 _ 1959 _ the wettest week ending Oct 9 was 1903 (11.64") Oct 4 - Oct 10 _________ (max) 81.00 _ 1959, 2007 __ (max) 56.57 _ 1888 Oct 4 - Oct 10 __________ (min) 66.29 _ 2007 ______ (min) 42.71 _ 1889 Oct 4 - Oct 10 _________ (mean) 73.14 _ 1959, 2007*____ (mean) 49.71 _ 1888 (50.21 1889) _ * 72.86 _ 2017 _ the wettest week ending Oct 10 was 1903 (11.81") Oct 5 - Oct 11 _________ (max) 80.43 _ 1990 _____ (max) 55.71 _ 1888 Oct 5 - Oct 11 __________ (min) 66.86 _ 2007 _____ (min) 40.43 _ 1964 Oct 5 - Oct 11 _________ (mean) 73.29 _ 2017*____ (mean) 49.21 _ 1888 (49.29 1964) _ * 72.14 _ 1959 _ the wettest week ending Oct 11 was 1903 (11.94") Oct 6 - Oct 12 _________ (max) 80.86 _ 1990 ______ (max) 54.14 _ 1888 Oct 6 - Oct 12 __________ (min) 65.57 _ 1990*______ (min) 39.57 _ 1964 _ * 65.43 _ 2017 Oct 6 - Oct 12 _________ (mean) 73.21 _ 1990 ____ (mean) 48.43 _ 1888 (49.21 1964) _ the wettest week ending Oct 12 was 1903 (11.96") Oct 7 - Oct 13 _________ (max) 80.29 _ 1949* _____ (max) 53.43 _ 1888 _ * 78.86 _ 1961 Oct 7 - Oct 13 __________ (min) 66.71*_ 1990 ______ (min) 40.71 _ 1876 _ * 64.43 _ 1949 Oct 7 - Oct 13 _________ (mean) 73.07 _ 1990*____ (mean) 47.43 _ 1888 (49.43 1988) _ * 72.36 _ 1949 _ the wettest week ending Oct 13 was 1903 (11.96") _ 11.71" in 2005 Oct 8 - Oct 14 _________ (max) 80.43 _ 1949 _____ (max) 51.57 _ 1888 Oct 8 - Oct 14 __________ (min) 67.57 _ 1990 ______ (min) 40.43 _ 1875 (40.86 1876, 41.57 1925) Oct 8 - Oct 14 _________ (mean) 73.36 _ 1990 ____ (mean) 46.29 _ 1888 (48.86 1925, 49.29 1988) _ the wettest week ending Oct 14 was 2005 (13.02") _ 11.95" in 1903 _ _ The 2005 amount was the highest weekly total in October and also in the entire calendar year. Oct 9 - Oct 15 _________ (max) 80.29 _ 1954 ______ (max) 51.29 _ 1888 Oct 9 - Oct 15 __________ (min) 66.29 _ 1990 ______ (min) 39.57 _ 1876 Oct 9 - Oct 15 _________ (mean) 72.43 _ 1990*____ (mean) 46.00 _ 1888 _ * 71.29 _ 1954 _ the wettest week ending Oct 15 was 2005 (8.76") _ 7.65" in 1903 Oct 10 - Oct 16 ________ (max) 80.14 _ 1954 ______ (max) 53.57 _ 1888 Oct 10 - Oct 16 _________ (min) 64.00 _ 1990 ______ (min) 39.00 _ 1876 Oct 10 - Oct 16 ________ (mean) 71.36 _ 1954 ____ (mean) 47.50 _ 1876 _ the wettest week ending Oct 16 was 2005 (8.75") _ 5.83" in 2002 Oct 11 - Oct 17 ________ (max) 78.29 _ 1938 ______ (max) 53.57 _ 1875, 2009 Oct 11 - Oct 17 _________ (min) 61.71 _ 1990 ______ (min) 38.43 _ 1876 Oct 11 - Oct 17 ________ (mean) 69.36 _ 1954*____ (mean) 46.50 _ 1876 _ * 68.57_1938 _ the wettest week ending Oct 17 was 2005 (8.68") _ 5.68" in 2002 Oct 12 - Oct 18 ________ (max) 77.29 _ 1938*______ (max) 50.86 _ 2009 _ * 76.43_1947, 75.71 _ 1928, 63 Oct 12 - Oct 18 _________ (min) 61.71 _ 1899 ______ (min) 38.29 _ 1876 Oct 12 - Oct 18 ________ (mean) 68.57 _ 1938 ____ (mean) 45.93 _ 2009 _ the wettest week ending Oct 18 was 2005 (8.55") Oct 13 - Oct 19 ________ (max) 78.00 _ 1963*______ (max) 51.14 _ 2009 _ * 76.29_1938, 76.14_1947, 75.21_1968 Oct 13 - Oct 19 _________ (min) 62.00 _ 1899 ______ (min) 39.14 _ 1876 (40.14 2009) Oct 13 - Oct 19 ________ (mean) 68.29 _ 1947*____ (mean) 45.64 _ 2009 _ * 68.00 _ 1938 _ the wettest week ending Oct 19 was 1927 (5.76") Oct 14 - Oct 20 ________ (max) 78.86 _ 1963*______ (max) 51.29 _ 2009 _ * 77.57_1947, 77.00_1938 Oct 14 - Oct 20 _________ (min) 61.00 _ 1947 ______ (min) 40.00 _ 2009 Oct 14 - Oct 20 ________ (mean) 69.29 _ 1947*____ (mean) 45.64 _ 2009 _ * 68.14 _ 1938 _ the wettest week ending Oct 20 was 1989 (5.34") Oct 15 - Oct 21 ________ (max) 79.43 _ 1963*______ (max) 53.43 _ 2009 _ * 78.14 _ 1947 Oct 15 - Oct 21 _________ (min) 61.86 _ 1947 ______ (min) 38.00 _ 1940 (38.86 1972) Oct 15 - Oct 21 ________ (mean) 70.00 _ 1947 ____ (mean) 46.50 _ 1940 (46.71 1972) _ the wettest week ending Oct 21 was 1989 (5.34") Oct 16 - Oct 22 ________ (max) 77.71 _ 1947*______ (max) 51.00 _ 1940 (53.86 1974, 54.14 1972) _ * 76.71 _ 1963^ Oct 16 - Oct 22 _________ (min) 62.14 _ 1947*______ (min) 35.43 _ 1940 (37.29 1974) _ * 59.43 _ 1984 Oct 16 - Oct 22 ________ (mean) 69.93 _ 1947 ____ (mean) 43.21 _ 1940 (45.57 1974) _ the wettest week ending Oct 22 was 1989 (5.34") __ __ __ ^ see note end of table (re 1963 high minima) Oct 17 - Oct 23 ________ (max) 78.14 _ 1947 ______ (max) 51.71 _ 1888 Oct 17 - Oct 23 _________ (min) 61.71 _ 1947*______ (min) 35.14 _ 1940 (37.29 1974) _ * 61.00 _ 2007 Oct 17 - Oct 23 ________ (mean) 69.93 _ 1947 ____ (mean) 44.07 _ 1940 (45.79 1888, 47.64 1976) _ the wettest week ending Oct 23 was 1989 (5.34") Oct 18 - Oct 24 ________ (max) 76.00 _ 1947 ______ (max) 51.86 _ 1888 Oct 18 - Oct 24 _________ (min) 60.14 _ 2007 ______ (min) 36.86 _ 1940 (37.14 1974) Oct 18 - Oct 24 ________ (mean) 67.71 _ 1979*____ (mean) 45.79 _ 1888, 1930 _ * 67.36 _ 1947 _ the wettest week ending Oct 24 was 1911 (4.95") Oct 19 - Oct 25 ________ (max) 74.43 _ 1947*______ (max) 51.86 _ 1930 _ * 74.00_1963 ^ Oct 19 - Oct 25 _________ (min) 58.71 _ 2017 ______ (min) 38.14 _ 1930 _ Oct 19 - Oct 25 ________ (mean) 66.00 _ 2017*____ (mean) 45.00 _ 1930 _ * 65.71 _ 1979 _ the wettest week ending Oct 25 was 1913 (5.36") Oct 20 - Oct 26 ________ (max) 75.29 _ 1947 ______ (max) 50.57 _ 1883 Oct 20 - Oct 26 _________ (min) 58.00 _ 1984 ______ (min) 38.14 _ 1869 Oct 20 - Oct 26 ________ (mean) 64.86 _ 1947 ____ (mean) 45.07 _ 1887 _ the wettest week ending Oct 26 was 1913 (5.20") Oct 21 - Oct 27 ________ (max) 75.00 _ 1947*______ (max) 49.14 _ 1883 (50.43 1889) _ * 74.71_1963 ^ Oct 21 - Oct 27 _________ (min) 59.57 _ 1908 ______ (min) 37.14 _ 1869 Oct 21 - Oct 27 ________ (mean) 64.86 _ 1920, 1963 _ (mean) 44.50 _ 1869 (44.64 1887) _ the wettest week ending Oct 27 was 1958 (4.30") Oct 22 - Oct 28 ________ (max) 74.14 _ 1947 ______ (max) 50.00 _ 1883 (50.57 1976) Oct 22 - Oct 28 _________ (min) 61.14 _ 1908*______ (min) 36.71 _ 1869 (37.71 1969) _ * 58.71 _ 1971 Oct 22 - Oct 28 ________ (mean) 64.86 _ 1908 ____ (mean) 43.71 _ 1869 (44.36 1976) _ the wettest week ending Oct 28 was 1943 (4.45") Oct 23 - Oct 29 ________ (max) 73.86 _ 1947*______ (max) 49.00 _ 1869 _ * 73.43_1946 Oct 23 - Oct 29 _________ (min) 61.86 _ 1908*______ (min) 36.71 _ 1869 (37.86 1969) _ * 59.71 _ 1900, 1971 Oct 23 - Oct 29 ________ (mean) 65.29 _ 1946*____ (mean) 42.86 _ 1869 (44.71 1976, 46.14 1969) _ * 65.07 _ 1908 _ the wettest week ending Oct 29 was 1943 (4.33") Oct 24 - Oct 30 ________ (max) 75.14 _ 1946*______ (max) 45.86 _ 1869 _ * 74.29_1989 Oct 24 - Oct 30 _________ (min) 59.71 _ 1908*______ (min) 34.86 _ 1869 _ * 59.43 _ 1946 Oct 24 - Oct 30 ________ (mean) 67.29 _ 1946 ____ (mean) 40.36 _ 1869 _ the wettest week ending Oct 30 was 1917 (4.62") __ record broken in 2021 (4.70"). Oct 25 - Oct 31 ________ (max) 75.71 _ 1946*______ (max) 43.14 _ 1869 _ * 74.00_1989 Oct 25 - Oct 31 _________ (min) 60.57 _ 1946*______ (min) 33.57 _ 1869 _ * 59.57 _ 1971 Oct 25 - Oct 31 ________ (mean) 68.14 _ 1946 ____ (mean) 38.36 _ 1869 _ the wettest week ending Oct 31 was 1943 (4.43") __ record broken in 2021 (4.71"). _ 1973 had 3.89", 4.15" by Nov 1 which became top values ending Nov 2-4 ... ... the records for 1973 will show up in weeks ending in November but all the rain fell in October. _________________________________________ ^ Despite a number of warm daytime averages in late October 1963, clear skies meant that the average minima were in the 54-55 range below several other years not shown as secondary high minima. The 1947 warm spell had very similar daytime readings but was a few degrees warmer at night. A warm spell in October 1879 was often in the range of 74 to 76 degrees during mid-October.

Current GFS shows it moving gradually west along 12N to 50W as a weak TD at most, then slowly intensifying as it curves NNW past all of the Caribbean islands heading towards Bermuda where it might be a cat-1 hurricane in about ten or eleven days, then a landfall over western Newfoundland near day 12-13. It might be the 16th named storm because the invest east of Florida seems to acquire TD to weak TS intensity off the Carolinas towards Nova Scotia within 3-5 days, no landfall predicted at this point with that one (which might get the 15th name, Omar possibly? ). This GFS scenario could easily change to something more impactful further west though.

Nicholas did reach hurricane status around landfall last night, so the new count is 14/6/3. Here's a copy of the table edited above for the number of storms each forecaster now requires to meet their predictions. That table will be locked and this new one will see the next round of edits. Odette, Peter and Rose have changed the count to 17/6/3 with just slight chances of any of them becoming hurricanes (Odette is not necessarily done because part of its circulation may redevelop tropical status, but even so that looks only tropical storm at most which would change nothing). ... Required future tropical counts for seasonal predictions to verify _ This table will be updated as new data change the seasonal count _ _ Sep 14 count is 14/6/3 (see previous version for earlier counts) _ Sep 18 count is 15/6/3 (Odette came and went although there's some chance of a part two). _ Sep 20 count is 17/6/3 (Peter and Rose both tropical storms, little chance of hurricane status apparently). _ Sep 24 count is 18/6/3 forecast to become 18/7/4 within days (this has now verified). _ Sep 25 count is 19/7/4 after the brief non-rampage of Teresa. _ Oct 2 count is 20/7/4 as Victor remained only at tropical storm intensity at its peak. FORECASTER _________________ named __ 'canes __ Major _____ additional named, H and M required Macintosh ______________________ 25 __ 14 __ 10 ___________ 5 ___ 7 __ 6 (best outcome 7 7 6) Tezeta __________________________ 23 __ 14 ___ 7 ___________ 3 ___ 7 __ 3 (best outcome 6 6 3) Roger Smith _____________________23 __ 13 ___ 7 ___________ 3 ___ 6 __ 3 (best outcome 6 6 3) Southmdwatcher ________________22 __ 11 ___ 6 ___________ 2 ___ 4 __ 2 (best outcome 4 4 2) IntenseWind002 ________________ 22 ___ 9 ___ 4 ___________ 2 ___ 2 __ 0 hudsonvalley21 __________________21 __ 11 ___ 6 ____________1 ___ 4 __ 2 (best outcome 3 3 2) Newman ________________________ 21 __ 10 ___ 5 ___________ 1 ___ 3 __ 1 (best outcome 3 3 1) J_Keith_Lee _____________________ 21 ___ 9 ___ 4 ___________ 1 ___ 2 __ 0 (best outcome 2 2 0) Brian5671 _______________________ 20 __ 12 ___ 2 ___________ 0 ___ 5 __(-2) (4 4 0 best outcome) RJay ____________________________ 20 __ 10 ___ 5 ___________ 0 ___ 3 __ 1 (2 2 1 best outcome) WxWatcher007 __________________20 ___ 9 ___ 4 ___________ 0 ___ 2 __ 0 (2 2 0 best outcome) BKViking ________________________ 20 ___ 9 ___ 4 ___________ 0 ___ 2 __ 0 (2 2 0 best outcome) ___ consensus __________________19.2 _ 9.8 __ 4.7 _________- 0.8_2.8 _0.7 (3 3 1 best outcome) DonSutherland1 _________________ 19 __ 12 ___ 6 ___________-1 ___ 5 __ 2 (4 4 2 best outcome) Ldub _____________________________19 __ 11 ___ 5 ___________ -1 ___ 4 __ 1 (3 3 1 best outcome) magpiemaniac ___________________ 19 __ 10 ___ 4 __________ -1 ___ 3 __ 0 (2 2 0 best outcome) NCforecaster89 _________________ 19 ___ 9 ___ 4 ___________ -1 ___ 2 __ 0 (2 2 0 best outcome) Tom _____________________________ 19 ___ 9 ___ 3 ___________ -1 ___ 2 __-1 (2 2 0 best outcome) Looking to the skies _____________ 19 ___ 8 ___ 7 ___________ -1 ___ 1 __ 2 (1 1 1 best outcome) wxdude64 _______________________ 19 ___ 7 ___ 4 ___________ -1 ___ 0 __ 0 (0 0 0 best outcome) TexMexWx _______________________ 18 ___ 9 ___ 4 ____________-2 ___ 2 __ 0 (0 0 0 best outcome) Cat Lady _________________________ 18 ___ 9 ___ 3 ____________ -2 ___ 2 __-1 (0 0 0 best outcome) snowlover2 ______________________ 18 ___ 8 ___ 4 ____________ -2 ___ 1 __ 0 (0 0 0 best outcomes) Iceresistance ____________________ 18 ___ 7 ___ 3 _____________-2 ___ 0 __-1 (0 0 0 best outcome) Rhino16 __________________________ 17 __ 10 ___ 4 _____________-3 ___ 3 __ 0 (2 2 0 best outcome) cptcatz ___________________________17 ___ 9 ___ 4 _____________-3 ___ 2 __ 0 (1 1 0 best outcome) NorthHillsWx ____________________ 17 ___ 9 ___ 3 ______________-3 ___ 2 __-1 (1 1 0 best outcome) ____ "Expert consensus" _________ 17 ___ 8 ___ 4 ______________-3 ___ 1 __ 0 (1 1 0 best outcome) TARCweather ____________________ 17 ___ 8 ___ 3 _____________ -3 ___ 1 __-1 (1 1 0 best outcome) ____ NOAA median _____________ 16.5 ___ 8 ___ 4 ____________-3.5 __ 1 __ 0 (0 0 0 best outcome) Yoda _____________________________ 16 ___ 9 ___ 5 _____________-4 ___ 2 __ 1 (best outcome 0 0 0) LoboLeader1 _____________________ 15 ___ 9 ___ 4 _____________-5 ___ 2 __ 0 (0 0 0 best outcome) Prospero _________________________ 14 __ 11 ___ 7 ______________-6 ___ 4 __ 3 (best outcome 2 2 2) ____________________________________________________________________ As of Kate (Aug 30) three forecasts were impossible to verify but those three could still win the contest by hitting their best possibles. With Larry a major hurricane in early September, a fourth forecast fell into this category. And with Mindy's arrival three more drifted into the Cannot Fully Verify Narrows. Most can still win the contest though if they hit their best possible outcomes as shown. Nicholas did not add any new members to the "cannot fully verify" category but drew even with our lowest prediction of number of storms. We are still one short of the lowest number of hurricanes predicted (7 by wxdude64 and Iceresistance), and had already seen one forecast passed by the number of majors (Brian5671, 2) with five others now level at 3. Various projections were made in the previous version of the table. Assuming the season is now 60% complete and that the second portion will match that for relative intensity, the projected end point would be (rounded off) 24 10 5 which implies a further count of 10 4 2. An assumption of higher intensity by one third would yield 24 12 6, a further count of 10 6 3. My subjective estimate is that the season may end around 24 13 5. (10 7 2 yet to come) ... the bottom three forecasts are just about eliminated from any chance to win at this point by the progression of possible outcomes that match their seasonal count, or beyond. By 16 the highest possible count is 16 8 5 so Yoda could win if that happened and then nothing else happened later. That would require storms 15 and 16 to be major hurricanes. By the time we reach 17 with any combination of possible H and M, the three forecasts at 14-16 are eliminated as each outcome would have a lower total error count with a higher-storm-number forecast. (by 17 the possible outcomes are these: The possible outcomes now from 19 7 4 would be then 20 7 4, 20 8 4, 20 8 5. and 21 7 4, 21 8 4, 21 8 5, 21 9 4, 21 9 5, 21 9 6 _________________ With the brief existence of TS Odette, three more forecasters have drifted into the shallows where their numbers cannot verify, but probably none of them are yet eliminated from any chance of winning the contest. After Peter and Rose, many more (most of the contest field) found themselves in the same shallows, so it's beginning to look like a few who still have possible verifying numbers are moving into the lead now. As the projected additional values for Sam are 1 1 1 there were no new forecasts pushed into the cannot verify shallows. (there could have been if anyone had been sitting at 110 required, or 100 required, but nobody was there). Teresa however has finished the search for perfection for six more forecasts, and there are now only three forecasts left standing (although they are not the only three that could win the contest) -- wxdude64 is currently at his predicted numbers of 19 7 4. Note: new feature below is current and projected scoring for today's count and any possible future counts for the next two storms (if there are two more).

First report on anomalies and projections ... ____________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 11th (anom 10d) ___--1.9 _--1.6 _ +2.3 __ +0.2 _--1.5 _ +1.0 __ +4.6 _+0.1 _ +1.3 21st (anom 20d) ___ +1.2 _ +0.9 _+3.3 __+4.1 _--1.6 _--0.4 __ +4.6 _+1.3 _ --0.8 29th (anom 28d) ___ +1.0_ +1.4 _ +4.4 __ +3.6 _--1.3 _--1.2 __ +4.6 _+0.2 _-0.6 11th (p anom 20d)_ +2.0_ +2.5 _ +3.0 __ +2.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ +3.0 _+1.0 _ +0.5 11th (p anom 27d)_ +2.0_ +2.5 _ +3.0 __ +2.5 _ +0.5 _ +0.5 __ +2.0 _+0.5 __ 0.0 21st (p anom 30d) _+1.0_ +1.0 _ +2.0 __ +2.5 _--1.0 _--0.5 __ +2.0 _+1.5 __ 0.0 29th (p anom 30d)_+0.8_ +1.0 _ +3.5 __ +3.0 _--1.5 _--1.2 __ +4.0 __ 0.0 _-0.7 confirmed anoms __+0.8_ +1.1 _ +4.1 __ +3.9 _--1.0 _--1.0 __ +4.0 __ 0.0 _ -0.7 (21st) _ Warmth has been more focused on the Midwest than further east, although Boston has remained well above normal. Recent rather cool weather in SEA is giving way to a somewhat warmer end of the month and DEN and PHX look set to finish the month above normal. The next 7-10 days in the east appear rather close to average if perhaps slightly cool at first. (29th) Final anomaly projections being updated for provisional scoring. (Oct 1st) Confirmed anomalies posted and scoring adjusted if necessary.

I have updated the "storms now required" post a few posts back in the thread, for Mindy's brief appearance. A growing number of forecasts are now somewhat adrift as their numbers cannot fully verify, but I don't think very many forecasts are eliminated despite that, and it's going to be a very competitive end to the contest. I mentioned in that post that with a rather lackluster tropical outlook in the current models at this peak time of the season, perhaps 21 11 5 is the most likely finish we might expect (but it's just speculation). Count is now 13/5/3. (edit Sept 12) With the appearance of Nicholas, the count is 14/5/3 -- will wait to see if Nicholas happens to become a hurricane before updating the table of "storms required to verify."

The meteorological season of summer is in the books, for Toronto it ranked tied tenth warmest with 2011, and it reminds me that I have not generated tables for seasonal ranks at NYC but it was probably closer to 30th there as all three months ranked lower than Toronto. Have already mentioned June in a previous post, so July 2021 was a rather average temperature month at both locations, then August went back to being very warm, in fact it was third warmest on record at Toronto, closer to 15th at New York City. Both locations set some new high minimum readings mostly in the last third of the month. While August 2021 was very dry at Toronto, both July and August were very wet in New York City which received several tropical remnants and after one rather weak daily rainfall record on May 29th, added five more by September 1st. I usually don't put any early new season data in the files, but as NYC had a daily rainfall record on Sept 1 (7.13") I have the first few days of the month in the updated file. So you'll find the links to the updated excel files in this post, if you would like to get the new information this past season, plus some new features that I have worked on in the NYC file, for average temperatures on a weekly time scale, together with extremes identified. There are also expansions of previous record temperature summaries. (updated excel files of data are attached to this post on net-weather, follow the link in the original post to find them)

June 2021 was fourth warmest in 182 tries at Toronto, and ninth warmest in 153 at NYC. For Toronto, only 2005, 1919 and 1949 were warmer. Even when the urban heat island was factored in, Toronto remained in fourth place, as most of the years ranked 5-20 are quite recent so they didn't gain much advantage over 2021. Generally speaking 1919 and 1949 had warmer daytime readings than 2005 or 2021, and June 1949 was also the driest month on record. Meanwhile, I have worked out the longest dry spells for NYC in similar fashion to the Toronto dry spells that are listed near the end of page one of this thread and summarized in the first post of page two. This is the list of all dry spells of 15 days (absolute, zero precip) or 20 days (small amounts allowed up to .01" per two days) Longest Dry Spells at NYC These lists rank the longest absolute dry spells (no precip over a trace amount), and extended dry spells (low precip totals that do not exceed .01" for every two consecutive days in the EDS). ____ ABSOLUTE DRY SPELLS ________________ EXTENDED DRY SPELLS _______ Rank _ Year ___ Days ___ Duration __________ Rank _ Year ___ Days, amt ___ Duration (longest ADS) _01 ___ 1924 ___ 36 ___ Oct 9 to Nov 13 _____ 01 ___ 2024 ___ 52 (.19") __ Sep 30 to Nov 20 (29, 11, 9) _02 ___ 2024 ___ 29 ___ Sep 30 to Oct 28 ____02 ___ 1995 ___ 46 (.18") __ July 29 to Sep 12 (24, 12)1 _03 ___ 1941 ___ 28 ___ Sep 5 to Oct 2 ______ 03 ___ 1924 ___ 44 (.01") __ Oct 9 to Nov 21 (36) t04 ___ 1884 ___ 27 ___ Sep 1 to 27 __________04 ___ 1952 ___ 43 (.21") __ Oct 3 to Nov 14 (8, 8.) t04 ___ 1910 ____27 ___ Sep 10 to Oct 6 _____t05___ 1901 ___ 40 (.20") __ Oct 15 to Nov 23 (16, 11) t06 ___ 1939 ___ 26 ___ Nov 6 to Dec 1 _____ t05___ 1949 ___ 40 (.12") __ May 27 to July 5 (19, 14) t06 ___ 1973 ___ 26 ___ Oct 3 to 28 _________ t07 ___ 1874 ___ 38 (.14") __ Oct 11 to Nov 17 (10, 9) t06 ___ 2001 ___ 26 ___ Apr 22 to May 17 ___ t07 ___ 1905 ___ 38 (.19") __ Oct 21 to Nov 27 (12) t09 ___ 1942 ___ 25 ___ Apr 11 to May 5 ____ t07 ___ 1910 ____ 38 (.19") __ Sep 7 to Oct 14 (27) t09 ___ 1968 ___ 25 ___ Feb 4 to 28 _________ t07 ___ 2001 ___ 38 (.17") __ Oct 17 to Nov 23 (17, 15) t 11 ___ 1922 ___ 24 ___ Sep 13 to Oct 6 _____t11 ___ 1882 ___ 34 (.08") __ July 20 to Aug 22 (13) t 11 ___ 1980 ___ 24 ___ Jan 23 to Feb 15 ___ t11 ___ 1899 ___ 34 (.17") __ May 12 to Jun 14 (15) t 11 ___ 1963 ___ 24 ___ Oct 4 to 27 _________t13 ___ 1881 ___ 33 (.10") __ Aug 8 to Sep 9 (11) t 11 ___ 1995 ___ 24 ___ Aug 7 to 30 _________t13 ___ 1943 ___ 33 (.13") __ Nov 23 to Dec 25 (13,19) t 15 ___ 1877 ___ 23 ___ Dec 7 to 29 _________t13 ___ 1999 ___ 33 (.16") __ July 3 to Aug 4 (9) t 15 ___ 1991 ___ 23 ___ Oct 18 to Nov 9 _____t16 ___ 1886 ___ 32 (.13") __ Aug 8 to Sep 8 (14) t_15 ___ 2015 ___ 23 ___ Apr 23 to May 15 ___t16 ___ 1886 ___ 32 (.06") __ Sep 24 to Oct 25 (20) _ 18 ___ 1988 ___ 22 ___ Nov 29 to Dec 20 ___t16 ___ 1947 ___ 32 (.11") __ Sep 27 to Oct 28 (12, 9) t 19 ___ 1870 ___ 21 ___ Aug 27 to Sep 16 ____t16 ___ 1963 ___ 32 (.14") __ Sep 30 to Oct 31 (24) t 19 ___ 1895 ___ 21 ___ Feb 9 to Mar 1 ______ t20 ___ 1903 ___ 31 (.11") __ May 7 to June 6 (12,15) t 19 ___ 1904 ___ 21 ___ Aug 23 to Sep 12 ____t20 ___ 1955 ___ 31 (.12") __ Nov 21 to Dec 21 (14) t 19 ___ 1908 ___ 21 ___ Sep 7 to Sep 27 _____t20 ___ 1966 ___ 31 (.09") __ June 18 to July 18 (11) t 19 ___ 1917 ____21 ___ Oct 31 to Nov 20 ____t20 ___ 1989 ___ 31 (.16") __ Nov 29 to Dec 29 (14, 14) t 19 ___ 1962 ___ 21 ___ June 27 to July 17 ___ 24 ___ 1909 ___ 30 (.14") __ Oct 24 to Nov 22 (12) t 25 ___ 1886 ___ 20 ___ Sep 24 to Oct 13 ___ t25 ___ 1877-78_29 (.04") __ Dec 6 to Jan 3 (23) t 25 ___ 1944 ___ 20 ___ Aug 23 to Sep 11 ___ t25 ___ 1880 ___ 29 (.11") __ May 1 to 29 (17) t 25 ___ 1999 ___ 20 ___ May 25 to June 13 __ t25 ___ 1884 ___ 29 (.08") __ Aug 31 to Sep 28 (27) t 28 ___ 1914 ___ 19 ___ Sep 26 to Oct 14 ____t25 ___ 1973 ___ 29 (.03") Sep 30 to Oct 28 (26) t 28 ___ 1917 ___ 19 ___ Sep 9 to 27 _________ t25 ___ 1985 ___ 29 (.14") __ Oct 6 to Nov 3 (10) t 28 ___ 1938 ___ 19 ___ Aug 12 to 30 ________t25 ___ 2001 ___ 29 (.07") Apr 22 to May 20 (26) t 28 ___ 1943 ___ 19 ___ Dec 7 to 25 _________ t31 ___ 1910 ___ 28 (.11") __ June 19 to July 16 (9) t 28 ___ 1949 ___ 19 ___ May 30 to Jun 17 ____t31 ___ 1941 ___ 28 (.00") __ Sep 5 to Oct 2 (28) t 28 ___ 1976 ___ 19 ___ Apr 3 to 21 __________t31 ___ 1964 ___ 28 (.11") __ Oct 22 to Nov 18 (14,10) t 28 ___ 1978 ___ 19 ___ Oct 28 to Nov 15 ____t31 ___ 1976 ___ 28 (.02") __ Nov 1 to 28 (9, 18) t 28 ___ 2007 ___ 19 ___ Aug 22 to Sep 9 ____ t31 ___ 2003 ___28 (.14") __ Jan 7 to Feb 3 (8) t 36 ___ 1894 ___ 18 ___ Aug 21 to Sep 7 ____ t36 ___ 1908 ___ 27 (.09") __ June 17 to July 13 (9,9) t 36 ___ 1903 ___ 18 ___ Apr 16 to May 3 ____ t36 ___ 1955 ___ 27 (.05") __ July 11 to Aug 6 (13, 10) t 36 ___ 1976 ___ 18 ___ Nov 11 to 28 ________t36 ___ 1980 ___ 27 (.08") __ Jan 20 to Feb 15 (24) t 36 ___ 1977 ___ 18 ___ Apr 6 to 23 _________ t36 ___ 2005 ___ 27 (.09") __ July 18 to Aug 13 (11) t 36 ___ 1980 ___ 18 ___ June 11 to 28 _______ t40 ___ 1902 ___ 26 (.09") __ Oct 29 to Nov 22 (14, 9) t 36 ___ 2017 ___ 18 ___ Sep 20 to Oct 7 _____ t40 ___ 1915 ___ 26 (.02") __ Mar 8 to Apr 2 (15, 10) t 42 ___ 1875 ___ 17 ___ Aug 24 to Sep 9 _____ t40 ___ 1916 ___ 26 (.12") __ Aug 12 to Sep 6 (10) t 42 ___ 1880 ___ 17 ___ May 1 to 17 __________t40 ___ 1931 ___ 26 (.08") __ Nov 1 to 26 (13) t 42 ___ 1887 ___ 17 ___ May 8 to 24 _________ t40 ___ 1939 ___ 26 (.00") __ Nov 6 to Dec 1 (26) t 42 ___ 1908 ___ 17 ___ Nov 19 to Dec 5 _____t40 ___ 1950 ___ 26 (.09") __ Sep 14 to Oct 9 (16) t 42 ___ 1939 ___ 17 ___ Oct 4 to 20 __________t46 ___ 1900 ___ 25 (.06") __ Dec 5 to 29 (16) t 42 ___ 1945 ___ 17 ___ Aug 7 to 23 _________ t46 ___ 1914 ___ 25 (.03") __ Aug 30 to Sep 23 (15) t 42 ___ 1946 ___ 17 ___ Sep 4 to 20 _________ t46 ___ 1942 ___ 25 (.00") __ Apr 11 to May 5 (25) t 42 ___ 1948 ___ 17 ___ Aug 23 to Sep 8 _____ t46 ___ 1981 ___ 25 (.09") __ Jan 8 to Feb 1 (15) t 42 ___ 1961 ___ 17 ___ Aug 28 to Sep 13 ____t46 ___ 2004 ___ 25 (.11") __ Feb 8 to Mar 3 (13) t 42 ___ 1986 ___ 17 ___ Feb 22 to Mar 10 ____ t46 ___ 2005 ___ 25 (.08") __ Aug 20 to Sep 13 (13) t 42 ___ 1999 ___ 17 ___ Nov 3 to 19 __________t52 ___ 1869 ___ 24 (.06") __ Oct 24 to Nov 16 (11) t 42 ___ 2001 ___ 17 ___ Oct 17 to Nov 2 ______t52 ___ 1874 ___ 24 (.02") __ Aug 23 to Sep 15 (12,11) t 42 ___ 2010 ___ 17 ___ Aug 26 to Sep 11 ____ t52 ___ 1904 ___ 24 (.06") __ Aug 21 to Sep 13 (21) t 55 ___ 1877 ___ 16 ___ Sep 18 to Oct 3 ______t52 ___1909 ___ 24 (.06") __ June 29 to July 22 (8) t 55 ___ 1881 ___ 16 ___ July 14 to 29 _________t52 ___ 1922 ___ 24 (.00") __ Sep 13 to Oct 6 (24) t 55 ___ 1895 ___ 16 ___ June 7 to 22 _________ t52 ___ 1959 ___ 24 (.04") __ Sep 4 to 27 (16) t 55 ___ 1900 ___ 16 ___ Dec 12 to 27 _________t52 ___ 1968 ___ 24 (.07") __ Sep 12 to Oct 5 (12) t 55 ___ 1901 ___ 16 ___ Oct 20 to Nov 4 ______t52 ___ 1972 ___ 24 (.12") __ July 22 to Aug 14 (11) t 55 ___ 1902 ___ 16 ___ Apr 10 to 25 _________t52 ___ 2013 ___ 24 (.11") __ Oct 8 to 31 (11) t 55 ___ 1923 ___ 16 ___ Sep 24 to Oct 9 ______t52___ 2015 ___ 24 (.05") __ Apr 22 to May 15 (23) t 55 ___ 1950 ___ 16 ___ Sep 23 to Oct 8 ______t62 ___ 1872 ___ 23 (.10") __ Feb 15 to Mar 8 (10) t 55 ___ 1959 ___ 16 ___ Sep 12 to 27 _________t62 ___ 1885 ___ 23 (.07") __ Sep 10 to Oct 2 (12) t 55 ___ 1964 ___ 16 ___ May 16 to 31 ________ t62 ___ 1894 ___ 23 (.08") __ Aug 16 to Sep 7 (18) t 55 ___ 1967 ___ 16 ___ May 30 to June 14 ___ t62 ___ 1896 ___ 23 (.11") __ Jan 1 to 23 (9) t 55 ___ 1970 ___ 16 ___ Feb 16 to Mar 3 _____ t62 ___ 1964 ___ 23 (.09") __ Aug 19 to Sep 10 (12) t 55 ___ 1987 ___ 16 ___ Aug 11 to 26 _________t62 ___ 1991 ___ 23 (.00") __ Oct 18 to Nov 9 (23) t 55 ___ 1988 ___ 16 ___ Aug 1 to 16 __________t62 ___ 1999 ___ 23 (.08") May 25 to June 16 (20) t 55 ___ 2020 ___ 16 ___ Sep 11 to 26 ________ t69 ___ 1870 ___ 22 (.03") __ Aug 26 to Sep 16 (21) t 55 ___ 2021 ___ 16 ___ Mar 2 to 17 _________ t69 ___ 1899 ___ 22 (.10") __ Nov 20 to Dec 11 (11) t 71 ___ 1876 ___ 15 ___ June 25 to July 9 _____t69 ___ 1917 ___ 22 (.01") __ Oct 31 to Nov 21 (21) t 71 ___ 1876 ___ 15 ___ Aug 18 to Sep 1 _____ t69 ___ 1968 __ 22 (.08") Apr 2 to 23 (13) t 71 ___ 1886 ___ 15 ___ June 25 to July 9 _____t69 ___ 1973 ___ 22 (.11") __ Nov 2 to 23 (14) t 71 ___ 1895 ___ 15 ___ Oct 16 to 30 _________t69 ___ 1981 ___ 22 (.11") Aug 17 to Sep 7 (14) t 71 ___ 1899 ___ 15 ___ Apr 18 to May 1 _____t69 ___ 1988 ___ 22 (.00") __ Nov 29 to Dec 20 (22) t 71 ___ 1899 ___ 15 ___ May 30 to June 13 ___t69 ___ 1999 ___ 22 (.10") __ Nov 3 to 24 (17) t 71 ___ 1903 ___ 15 ___ May 23 to June 6 ____t77 ___ 1877 ___ 21 (.06") __ Feb 3 to 23 (15) t 71 ___ 1908 ___ 15 ___ May 31 to June 14 ___t77 ___ 1895 ___ 21 (.00") __ Feb 9 to Mar 1 (21) t 71 ___ 1908 ___ 15 ___ Oct 11 to 25 _________t77 ___ 1904 ___ 21 (.05") __ Nov 14 to Dec 4 (12) t 71 ___ 1909 ___ 15 ___ Aug 21 to Sep 4 ______t77 ___ 1908 ___ 21 (.00") __ Sept 7 to 27 (21) t 71 ___ 1912 ___ 15 ___ June 26 to July 10 ____t77 ___ 1908 ___ 21 (.10") __ Nov 16 to Dec 6 (17) t 71 ___ 1913 ___ 15 ___ May 1 to 15 __________t77 ___ 1923 ___ 21 (.04") __ Sep 24 to Oct 14 (16) t 71 ___ 1914 ___ 15 ___ Sep 9 to 23 __________ t77 ___ 1935 ___ 21 (.05") __ May 8 to 28 (14) t 71 ___ 1915 ___ 15 ___ Mar 8 to 22 __________t77 ___ 1940 ___ 21 (.09") __ Oct 9 to 29 (13) t 71 ___ 1925 ___ 15 ___ Aug 22 to Sep 5 ______t77 ___ 1962 ___ 21 (.00") __ June 27 to July 17 (21) t 71 ___ 1930 ___ 15 ___ July 30 to Aug 13 _____t77 ___ 2000 ___ 21 (.01") __ Oct 19 to Nov 8 (10, 10) t 71 ___ 1932 ___ 15 ___ July 5 to 19 ___________t77 ___ 2006 ___ 21 (.05") __ Mar 13 to Apr 2 (11) t 71 ___ 1953 ___ 15 ___ Aug 18 to Sep 1 ______t77 ___ 2010 ___ 21 (.11") __ May 19 to June 8 (9) t 71 ___ 1964 ___ 15 ___ June 22 to July 7 ______t77 ___ 2012 ___ 21 (.10") __ Mar 4 to 24 (7) t 71 ___ 1968 ___ 15 ___ July 4 to 18 ___________t77 ___ 2023 ___ 21 (.07") __ Oct 31 to Nov 21 (13) t 71 ___ 1974 ___ 15 ___ Sep 30 to Oct 14 ______t91 ___ 1879 ___ 20 (.02") __ Sep 29 to Oct 18 (13) t 71 ___ 1978 ___ 15 ___ Aug 13 to 27 __________t91 ___ 1886 ___ 20 (.07") __ Feb 27 to Mar 18 (13) t 71 ___ 1979 ___ 15 ___ Oct 13 to 27 __________t91 ___ 1887 ___ 20 (.01") __ May 8 to 27 (17) t 71 ___ 1980 ___ 15 ___ Aug 16 to 30 __________t91 ___ 1892 ___ 20 (.05") __ Sep 15 to Oct 4 (12) t 71 ___ 1981 ___ 15 ___ Jan 17 to 31 ___________t91 ___ 1897 ___ 20 (.02") __ Sep 3 to 22 (10) t 71 ___ 2001 ___ 15 ___ Nov 5 to 19 ___________t91 ___ 1901 ___ 20 (.10") __ Feb 10 to Mar 1 (8) t 71 ___ 2012 ___ 15 ___ Apr 3 to 17 ___________t91 ___ 1910 ___ 20 (.09") __ Nov 5 to 24 (7) t 71 ___ 2015 ___ 15 ___ Sep 14 to 28 __________t91 ___ 1914 ___ 20 (.06") __ Sep 26 to Oct 15 (19) t 71 ___ 2020 ___ 15 ___ June 12 to 26 _________t91 ___ 1944 ___ 20 (.00") __ Aug 23 to Sep 11 (20) t71 ___ 2024 ___ 15 ___ July 18 to Aug 1 _______t91 ___ 1946 ___ 20 (.09") __ Nov 27 to Dec 16 (14) t71 ___ 2024 ___ 15 ___ Sep 8 to 22 ___________t91 ___ 1963 ___ 20 (.10") __ Mar 27 to Apr 15 (7) t102___1871 ___ 14 ___ May 17 to 30 _________t91 ___ 1968 ___ 20 (.04") __ June 29 to July 18 (15) t102___1886 ___ 14 ___ Aug 17 to 30__________t91 ___ 1971 ___ 20 (.09") __ Apr 8 to 27 (13) t102___1890 ___ 14 ___ Nov 19 to Dec 2 ______t91 ___ 1976 ___ 20 (.03") __ Apr 2 to 21 (19) t102___1891 ___ 14 ___ Oct 27 to Nov 8 ______ t91 ___ 1978 ___ 20 (.05") __ Oct 28 to Nov 16 (19) t102___1902 ___ 14 ___ Oct 29 to Nov 10______t91 ___1985-86_ 20 (.07") __ Dec 14 to Jan 2 (6) t102___1904 ___ 14 ___ Oct 22 to Nov 4 _______t91 ___ 1986 ___ 20 (.08") __ Mar 16 to Apr 4 (7, 7) t102___1906 ___ 14 ___ Jan 25 to Feb 7 ________t91 ___ 2010 ___ 20 (.03") __ June 23 to July 12 (10) t102___1908 ___ 14 ___ Oct 31 to Nov 13 ______t91 ___ 2020 ___ 20 (.05") __ June 7 to 26 (15) t102___1910 ___ 14 ___ Mar 21 to Apr 3 _______t91 ___ 2023 ___ 20 (.02") __ Apr 2 to 21 (13) t102___1912 ___ 14 ___ Feb 5 to 18 ___________t111 ___ 1895 ___ 19 (.03") __ Dec 3 to 21 (12) t102___1914 ___ 14 ___ Nov 21 to Dec 4 ______t111 ___ 1902 ___ 19 (.06") __ Apr 10 to 28 (16) t102___1918 ___ 14 ___ Aug 15 to 28 _________ t111 ___ 1905 ___ 19 (.09") __ Feb 13 to Mar 3 (11) t102___1921 ___ 14 ___ Aug 19 to Sep 1 ______ t111 ___ 1915 ___ 19 (.06") __ Aug 31 to Sep 16 ( 9 ) t102___1923 ___ 14 ___ Nov 8 to 21 ___________t111 ___ 1917 ___ 19 (.00") __ Sep 9 to 27 (19) t102___1926 ___ 14 ___ Apr 10 to 23 __________t111 ___ 1918 ___ 19 (.10") __ Mar 15 to Apr 2 (11) t102___1933 ___ 14 ___ Apr 19 to May 2 ______t111 ___ 1938 ___ 19 (.00") __ Aug 12 to 30 (19) t102___1935 ___ 14 ___ May 15 to 28 _________ t111 ___ 1944 ___ 19 (.05:) __ Oct 21 to Nov 8 (13) t102___1944 ___ 14 ___ Sep 29 to Oct 12 _____ t111 ___ 1048 ___ 19 (.09") __ Aug 21 to Sep 8 (17) t102___1946 ___ 14 ___ Nov 28 to Dec 11 _____t111 ___ 1948 ___ 19 (.10") __ Sep 11 to 29 (11) t102___1949 ___ 14 ___ June 20 to July 3 ______t111 ___ 1964 ___ 19 (.03") __ July 30 to Aug 17 ( 9 ) t102___1953 ___ 14 ___ Nov 8 to 21 ___________t111 ___ 1967 ___ 19 (.08") __ May 30 to June 17 (16) t102___1955 ___ 14 ___ Dec 5 to 18 ___________t111 ___ 1980 ___ 19 (.01") __ June 10 to 28 (18) t102___1961 ___ 14 ___ Nov 25 to Dec 8 ______t111 ___ 1980 ___ 19 (.07") __ Aug 12 to 30 (15) t102___1962 ___ 14 ___ July 24 to Aug 6_______t111 ___ 1985 ___ 19 (.03") __ Feb 13 to Mar 3 (10) t102___1964 ___ 14 ___ Oct 22 to Nov 4 ______ t111 ___1986 ___ 19 (.09") ___ Feb 22 to Mar 12 (17) t102___1973 ___ 14 ___ Jan 5 to 18 ____________t111 ___ 1988 ___ 19 (.01") ___ July 29 to Aug 16 (16) _ t102___1973 ___ 14 ___ Feb 17 to Mar 2 ______ t111 ___ 2007 ___ 19 (.00") ___ Aug 22 to Sep 9 (19) t102___1973 ___ 14 ___ Nov 2 to 15 ___________t 111 ___ 2012 ___ 19 (.07") ___ Apr 2 to 20 (15) _ 129 EDS t102___1981 ___ 14 ___ Aug 17 to 30 __________t130 ___ 18 day EDS t102___1988 ___ 14 ___ Sep 18 - Oct 1 t102___1989 ___ 14 ___ Nov 29 to Dec 12 t102___1989 ___ 14 ___ Dec 16 to 29 ___ t102___1997 ___ 14 ___ Sep 30 to Oct 13 t102___2001 ___ 14 ___ July 27 to Aug 9 t102___2008 ___ 14 ___ Aug 16 to 29 ___ t102___2013 ___ 14 ___ Sep 23 to Oct 6 ___ 137 total Most of the EDS entries, if not extensions of the first list of absolute dry spells, contain 9-15 day ADS intervals, and a few entries such as Aug 23 to Sep 11 1944 add no days at either end of a long ADS, so the EDS is the original ADS. A few EDS have two ADS in their duration, for example 24d EDS in 1874 had 12d and 11d ADS separated by .02" 21 days from Oct 19 to Nov 8 2000 had only .01" (on Oct 29, dividing this into two ten-day dry spells). Two long dry spells in Sep-Oct 1914 were separated by only .28" in two days, and narrowly missed combining for an eligible 49-day EDS. The average year has 6.4 EDS (10d or longer) which include 3.6 ADS. The average EDS is 15 days long. Those associated with an ADS are on average about 14 days long. As the amount of precipitation varies from nil to .10" per 20 days, the total precipitation in all these dry spells is probably around 50" (two fairly dry years, but the total length of these dry spells is about 40 years). The average year has 88.7 days within the various dry spells, the range is 30 (2014) (31 2022) to 159 (1909) followed by 155 in 1885 and 154 in driest year 1965. ... 2024 is already closing in on 120. 2014, 2022, 1996, 2018 and 1945 had the fewest days in qualifying dry spells, however, they were not wettest years, their cycle of wet and dry seemed to be closer to 7-8 days. Considering how much rain fell in 1983, the year managed an almost average output of dry spells, mainly in February and the late autumn. This is a frequency distribution of the months involved in the 137 longest absolute dry spells of 14 or more days, frequency assigned by nearest 0.1 portions when the dry spell overlaps two months. JAN _ FEB _ MAR _ APR _ MAY _ JUN _ JUL _ AUG _ SEP _ OCT _ NOV _ DEC 2.8 ___ 6.2 __ 3.8 ___ 8.4 __ 9.1 __10.1 __ 8.7 __21.9 __22.0 _ 19.4 __16.0 __ 9.6 This frequency distribution shows that late summer into autumn is favored for long dry spells, winter and early spring least favored, with a slight secondary peak around late May through June. About half of the dry spell frequency is in the period August to October. The following is a graph of the number of days each year (1869-2020) within qualifying dry spells. There are peaks around the 1880s, 1900s, 1960s and (early) 1980s. Peak years from graph: ___ 1885 _ 1909 _____ 1965_1980 _ (2010)