Roger Smith

I dropped by to make a comment that seems to be in line with what people are seeing in subtle changes in the maps out around days 6-10, the cold air out here is not hammering south and will be met with some resistance, it won't just all settle into the Great Basin which can be a death sentence for winter on the east coast. In fact none of this cold air seems to be heading very far south of the border, currently there's a stubborn wave in eastern WA holding it back and even where I am the colder air is not here yet, nor does it look like it will get here until maybe Tuesday which means a lot of this severe arctic cold is going to bounce east through the prairies into northern Ontario. While there isn't a lot of southward push on it there, at least it gets close enough to be useful if the pattern does begin to change for the better. So it isn't looking like some carbon copy of 1949-50 with the large amplitude ridge-trough setup that kept it very mild in the east to mid-Feb (albeit there was some decent winter weather for a few weeks in late Feb and early Mar that winter) or worse 1948-49 which had severe blizzards in the Rocky Mountain states and the Great Basin and nothing but mild weather most of the winter in the east. Could be more like 1968-69 which had intervals of severe cold out this way but also a good coastal storm track and retrograde events indicating blocking over the eastern arctic. I think from what I can recall of that winter (very dry and a bit on the mild side in Ontario) there was just enough cold air around to feed into those coastal storms to give some decent snowfalls even though it wasn't what you would call a cold winter.

_ Final Scoring for December 2021 _ Scores are based on latest end of month projections in the previous post. Six locations needed the boost of "minimum progression" to max 60 and rank order scoring (unless raw scores for any forecaster higher at their scoring level). NYC just barely needed this boost but it did not make much difference to the scores shown as quite a few remain raw scores, while the other locations converted had larger differentials from a maximum raw score of 60. DEN had a large anomaly but RodneyS had a high enough raw score (84) that it prevented the scoring from being boosted there. PHX and BOS appear to be within the realm of normal scoring and for PHX we find the only two examples of forecasts which were more extreme than the outcome. Every other forecast fell short of the actual anomaly at other locations, although almost all of us had the right anomaly signs. I will let you know in the final report whether the boosts made much difference to the annual scoring outcome, for now I don't think it made any difference, the raw scores while lower in general would have been separated by about the same amounts as these results, within 20 points. As of 0615h EST Jan 1 the scoring is final, IAH has not confirmed a value yet but it will obviously require the scoring boost as shown (will be +12 or higher). _FORECASTER _____________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent _ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA__west___TOTAL RodneyS ____________________ 55^_ 45^_ 56 __ 156 __ 60^_ 60^_ 60^__ 180 __336 __ 84 _ 86 _ 12 __ 182 ___ 518 RJay ________________________ 60^_ 60^_ 80 __ 200 __55^_ 45^_ 15^ __ 115 __ 315 __ 68 _ 98 _ 20^__ 186 ___ 501 DonSutherland 1 ____________ 45^_ 40^_ 52 __ 137 __ 55^_ 50^_ 55^ __ 160 __ 297 __ 58 _ 92 _ 50^__ 200 ___ 497 Deformation Zone ___________40^_ 40^_ 50 __ 130 __ 30^_ 45^_ 45^ __ 120 __ 250 __ 38 _ 92 _ 50^__ 180 ___ 430 wxallannj ____________________50^_ 50^_ 50 __ 150 __ 20^_ 55^_ 35^ __ 110 __ 260 ___ 17 _ 68 _ 55^__ 140 ___ 400 hudsonvalley21 _____________ 15^_ 55^_ 44 __ 114 __ 45^_ 35^_ 50^ __ 130 __ 244 __ 38 _ 86 _ 16 ___140 ___ 384 BKViking ____________________ 30^_ 32 _ 50 __ 112 __ 40^_ 30^_ 25^ __ 095 __ 207 __ 28 _ 88 _ 50^__ 166 ___ 373 ___ Consensus _______________32^_ 34 _ 50 __ 116 __ 35^_ 30^_ 32^ __ 097 __ 213 __ 32 _ 88 _ 32^__ 152 ___ 365 so_whats_happening ________40^_ 28 _ 30 __ 098 __ 30^_ 15^_ 20^ __ 065 ___ 163 __ 20 _ 62 _ 35^__ 117 ___ 280 Tom _________________________25^_ 30 _ 50 __ 105 __ 40^_ 10^_ 05^ __ 055 __ 160 __ 15 _ 68 _ 30^ __ 113 ___ 273 Roger Smith ________________ 10^_ 10^_ 14 __ 034 __ 05^_ 05^_ 45^ __ 055 ___ 089 __ 28 _ 74 _ 60^__ 162 ___ 251 wxdude64 __________________ 05^_ 05^_ 12 __ 022 __ 10^_ 30^_ 30^ __ 070 ___ 092 __ 34 _ 84 _ 25^__ 143 ___ 235 Scotty Lightning ____________ 20^_ 26 _ 40 __ 086 __ 15^_ 20^_ 15^ __ 050 ___ 136 __ 05 _ 52 _ 05^___062 ___ 198 ___ Normal __________________ 12^_ 12^_ 30 __ 054 __ 12^_ 05^_ 00 ___ 017 ___ 071 __ 00 _ 32 _ 22^___ 054 ___ 125 ============================================================ EXTREME FORECAST REPORT Based on current projections, all locations but PHX would qualify. Seven are going to the warmest forecasts and one to the coldest (SEA). RJay has three wins at present and RodneyS has four, all for warmest forecasts. SEA will go to Roger Smith with coldest forecast. PHX did not qualify at +3.4 or higher as the third highest forecast has high score. _______________________________________________ Annual update will be posted at end of the contest only. From what I recall of the differentials, RodneyS has made up about half the ground needed to catch DonSutherland1. With most projected outcomes higher than (or lower than for SEA) all forecasts there isn't much room for adjustments of these differentials, but time will tell. ________________________________________________ (Scoring table with raw scores for the six locations that had some boosted scoring; totals of those and differentials from the above) _FORECASTER _____________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent _ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA__west___TOTAL ___ diff RodneyS ____________________ 33 _ 38 _ 56 __ 127 __ 39 _ 37 _ 38 __ 114 __241 __ 84 _ 86 _ 12 __ 182 ___ 423 (518) _ -95 RJay ________________________ 41 _ 56 _ 80 __ 177 __ 35 _ 20 _ 12 __ 067 __ 244 __ 68 _ 98 _ 20 __ 186 ___ 430 (501) _ -71 DonSutherland 1 ____________ 25 _ 36 _ 52 __ 113 __ 35 _ 24 _ 28 __ 087 __ 210 __ 58 _ 92 _ 30 __ 180 ___ 390 (497) _-107 Deformation Zone ___________21 _ 36 _ 50 __ 107 __ 10 _ 20 _ 20 __ 050 __ 157 __ 38 _ 92 _ 30 __ 160 ___ 317 (430) _ -113 wxallannj ____________________31 _ 40 _ 50 __ 121 __ 07 _ 26 _ 22 __ 055 __ 176 ___ 17 _ 68 _ 42 __ 127 ___ 400 (303) _ -97 hudsonvalley21 _____________ 07 _ 44 _ 44 __ 095 __ 21 _ 18 _ 24 __ 063 __ 158 __ 38 _ 86 _ 16 ___140 ___ 298 (383) _ -85 BKViking ____________________ 15 _ 32 _ 50 __ 097 __ 12 _ 16 _ 15 __ 043 __ 140 __ 28 _ 88 _ 30 __ 146 ___ 286 (373) _ -87 ___ Consensus _______________19 _ 34 _ 50 __ 103 __ 11 _ 17 _ 18 __ 046 __ 149 __ 32 _ 88 _ 26 __ 146 ___ 295 (365) -70 so_whats_happening ________21 _ 28 _ 30 __ 098 __ 10 _ 12 _ 15 __ 037 ___ 135 __ 20 _ 62 _ 28 __ 110 ___ 245 (280) -35 Tom _________________________13 _ 30 _ 50 __ 093 __ 12 _ 09 _ 09 __ 030 __ 123 __ 15 _ 68 _ 26 __ 109 ___ 232 (273) -41 Roger Smith ________________ 00 _ 00 _ 14 __ 014 __ 00 _ 00 _ 22 __ 022 ___ 036 __ 28 _ 74 _ 50 __ 152 ___ 188 (251) -63 wxdude64 __________________ 00 _ 00 _ 12 __ 012 __ 00 _ 16 _ 18 __ 034 ___ 046 __ 34 _ 84 _ 24 __ 142 ___ 188 (235) -47 Scotty Lightning ____________ 11 _ 26 _ 40 __ 077 __ 05 _ 15 _ 13 __ 033 ___ 110 __ 05 _ 52 _ 00 ___057 ___ 167 (198) -31 ___ Normal __________________00 _ 06 _ 30 __ 036 __ 00 _ 00 _ 00 __ 000 ___ 036 __ 00 _ 32 _ 20 __ 052 ___088 (125) -37 ++++++++++++++++++ The only significant difference applying the raw scores would be that RJay had high score for Dec. Both pairs of exchanged final rankings would have been the same. Clearly the rich get richer in this boosted score by ranks, so I might give some thought to a slight variation which would be max 60 and other scores from a curve so that differentials would directly affect the scoring.

Thanks Don, I suspected that might be the case. So we can remove 1870-71 from the list. I seem to recall getting some snowfall adjustments from you when I first started working with the data base, but that one needs to be adjusted (in my data set). Will see what I can find out. Looking at the rest of the 1870s I don't think this problem extends much further than that one winter.

Don or somebody else probably posted some of this back in the thread, but according to my search of the NYC data, the latest first measurable snowfall in any winter season was Jan 29 of 1973. Second place goes to Jan 21 of 1871 but I am not sure how reliable the zero snowfall of Dec 1870 and Jan 1-20 1871 are considered; the data set I have does not indicate any missing snow data there and the mean temps were 34.2 for Dec and 30.7 for Jan 1-20. Other late starts I noted were Jan 20, 1966 and 2000, Jan 19, 2007, Jan 18, 1998, Jan 17, 2016 and Jan 11, 1995. The only other winter seasons to reach Jan 4th with no measurable snow were 1895-96 and 2001-02 (both Jan 7 first snow), 1891-92 (Jan 6 first snow) and 1971-72 (Jan 5 first snow). That is a total of 12 winters out of 153 making it to Jan 4 before the first measurable snow. The total winter snowfalls in the same order were 2.8" (1972-73), 30.1" (1870-71), 21.4" (1965-66), 16.3" (1999-2000), 12.4" (2006-07), 5.5" (1997-98), 32.8" (2015-16, most of that on Jan 23rd), 11.8" (1994-95), 46.0" (1895-96), 3.5" (2001-02), 25.3" (1891-92), and 22.9" (1971-72). The average of those twelve was 19.2" which indicates roughly normal snowfall for the average of about 70% of the winter season still available at the zero start. However 1896 and 2016 excluded, the average was only about 15" per season and among these we find three of the seven lowest seasonal totals including 1st, 2nd and 7th lowest. The other four in the seven least snowy winters had as little as 0.1" by Jan 1st in 1900-1901 (fifth lowest snowfall total of 5.1"), that winter's first inch of snow came on Jan. 30th with the total only 0.3" before that. For third least snowy 1918-19 (3.8") most of the snow fell in March, the total being a mere 1.1" before that. 1931-32 and 2019-20 also in the bottom seven had larger portions before New Years than the rest of this group, with 2.5" in Dec 2019 of the 4.8" seasonal finish, and 2.1" Nov-Dec 1931 of the 5.3" seasonal total. The 1895-96 winter certainly reversed form more notably than any of the rest of this list, some record cold (Jan 6, Feb 17 record low maxima) and heavy snowfall events in Mar gave a generally wintry period of weather throughout January to March, then the spring set numerous high temperature records (some still extant) in April and May. Rather than being a one-shot wonder like 2016, 1896 had four record snowfalls in March. There wasn't a lot of snow with the cold weather earlier though (a total of 3" in January and 9.5" in Feb, then 30.5" in March and 3" more in early April. I suspect this winter might go a bit like these better outcomes of the late starters, it is not setting up like a torch winter with plenty of cold massing for later delivery. I would compare it perhaps to 1981-82 which had some wintry episodes after Jan 8th and not much before then. Winter 2011-12 had the freak late October snow (2.9") then nothing measurable until Jan 21, 2012 when 4.3" fell. So it probably seemed like another very late start.

I have a good feeling about Jan 3-6, could be a rather slow transition until then.

You may have noticed this also, a lot of winter month maximum records occur at night, quite often you can spot them in the data because two consecutive days will have very similar mild maximum values. This may be even more frequent further north, it is conspicuous in the Toronto data for example, and when I ran my own weather station as a student (1960s and early 70s) I saw a few of these happen. If you look at the records for Dec 31 1965 and Jan 1 1966 you'll notice they are similar and those happened late in the evening to early morning hours. I happened to be in NJ that holiday visiting relatives so I remember the occasion. Back home the high on the 31st was in the late afternoon according to the friend who read my instruments, and the temperature fell off after that. There are even a few occasions with three consecutive days of record highs and a fairly steady temperature in the middle of those three days, so two midnight warm readings in succession. The reason for this phenomenon may be the distance between the source region (Gulf of Mexico) and the east coast or lower Great Lakes, meaning that if there's a strong pull on the Gulf like there was early yesterday, then about 36 hours later that pulse crosses the northeastern states. Once you get into any modest solar heating like later February, this phenomenon fades out, and you only find it starting in late November also.

So far LGA has broken their record (63F) and EWR tied theirs (65F). NYC at 62F within one, and has set a new high minimum of 54F. JFK and ISP with more marine influence are at 61 and 59 so far. It looks to stay quite mild to midnight or beyond so the NYC max record may still occur with the 62F of 2000 for 17th also not out of reach yet.

Dec 16 records at all five locations set in 1971 are 65 for JFK, EWR, 64 for ISP, 63 for NYC and 62 for LGA. I only have the high minimum record for NYC and that was 48 also in 1971. If it stays very mild to midnight then the 17th record high could also be taken down, that one is 62 at NYC set in 2000.

Dec 16 records at all five locations set in 1971 are 65 for JFK, EWR, 64 for ISP, 63 for NYC and 62 for LGA. I only have the high minimum record for NYC and that was 48 also in 1971. If it stays very mild to midnight then the 17th record high could also be taken down, that one is 62 at NYC set in 2000.

That front looks like it will form a nearly continuous line squall for the upper Midwest so while some tornadic cells likely, there would be widespread damaging gusts in the 70-90 mph range. Currently at Garden City in western KS, winds are WSW 40G64 and temp dew point is 61/2 while at Wichita in eastern KS it's S 35G52 and 75/59. It's basically an April like severe weather pattern without much solar heating.

I mentioned in the December thread that Thursday could break the 1971 record of 63F at NYC. Looks like being 75-80 in the central states on Wednesday so that air mass streaming across the northeast will likely remain near 70 F. Will say 71 F for the new record there. Not sure what the records might be at other NYC regional sites but could be like 68F at JFK, 72F at LGA and 73F at EWR (on Thursday). According to my NYC data base there have been two record highs set so far in 2021 (March 26, 82F and Dec 11, 66F). There have been five record high minima (two ties) -- two in March, two in June and one in August. And there have been two record low maxima in late May (one a tie). There have been no new record low minima (these are very infrequent in recent years due to the combined effects of urban heat island and climate change). December has more warm months in recent decades than most months. I think the monthly record at NYC has been broken five times since 1982. There have been some impressive warm spells in such years as 1982, 1984, 1990, 2013, 2015 and those have bagged about half the daily records. Before the modern era, 1881, 1889, 1891, 1895, 1923 and 1957 were notable for warm spells in December. December seems to be in transition from being a genuine winter month to being the tail end of autumn, and this tendency shows up far and wide not just around the northeastern states. Even as far afield as the UK, mild Decembers are becoming more frequent although they did have a notably cold one in 2010 that came within 0.1 C of breaking the 1890 record there. But except for that, December averages have been rising rather steadily in the UK, and also in parts of Canada. The same thing is happening at the other end of winter, late February and early March have seen many recent record highs compared to most other parts of the calendar year. May and October on the other hand have a relatively low count of recent record highs.

With the generally dry pattern 2021 is making slow progress up the table and remains in 10th place ... here's an update of what amounts are needed to reach 9th, 8th and the rest probably out of reach now. Rank __ YEAR ___ TOTAL PRECIP _ 01 ____ 1983 ____ 80.56" _ 02 ____ 2011 ____ 72.81" _ 03 ____ 1972 ____ 67.03" _ 04 ____ 2018 ____ 65.55" _ 05 ____ 1989 ____ 65.11" _ 06 ____ 2007 ____ 61.67" (2021 needs 2.66"to tie) _ 07 ____ 1975 ____ 61.21" (2021 needs 2.20" to tie) _ 08 ____ 1990 ____ 60.92" (2021 needs 1.91" to tie) _ 09 ____ 2006 ____ 59.89" (2021 needs 0.88" to tie) _ 10 ____ 2021 ____ 59.01" (.17" on Dec 11) Looking at current GFS output to the 28th, I could see maybe 1.0 to 1.5 inches of precip so would say there's a good chance of overtaking 9th place 2006 and maybe challenging 7th and 8th place 1975, 1990 near the end. Also looks to me like a record daily high may be set on Thursday 16th, 63F (1971) appears to be the current record (some warmer days in 2015 earlier in the week), would say 68-72 F a good bet. There's a weak record for the 19th (only 58F, the lowest such value in December) that on current guidance won't be broken but if the pattern slows down or moves north it could be. Records for the 17th and 18th are 62F and 63F. After the 20th (60F) there's another spell with records closer to 70F again. These daily records can be seen in my thread over in the climate change forum, pack a lunch. Yesterday (Sat 11th) set a daily record of 66 F (the former record was 64 F from 1879).

As of now, 2021 ranks tied second lowest with three other years in the ratio of hurricanes to named storms (7 of 21, 0.333) in this century, and is tied 6th lowest all time with six other years (since 1850). Only these years had lower (or equal) ratios of hurricanes to named storms. YEAR ___ named __ H _ M ____ Ratio 1895 _____ 6 ______ 2 __ 0 ____ 0.333 1956 ____ 12 ______ 4 __ 1 ____ 0.333 1982 _____ 6 ______ 2 __ 1 ____ 0.333 2002 ____ 12 ______ 4 __ 2 ____ 0.333 2009 _____ 9 ______ 3 __ 2 ____ 0.333 2019 ____ 18 ______ 6 __ 3 ____ 0.333 2021 ____ 21 ______ 7 __ 4 ____ 0.333 1931 ____ 13 ______ 3 __ 1 ____ 0.231 1905 _____ 5 ______ 1 __ 1 ____ 0.200 2013 ____ 14 ______ 2 __ 0 ____ 0.143 1907 _____ 5 ______ 0 __ 0 ____ 0.000 1914 _____ 1 _______ 0 __ 0 ____ 0.000 ------------------------------------------------- One more tropical storm not reaching hurricane status would move 2021 to sixth place alone at 0.318. Of the thirteen years with 17 or more named storms, only 2019 joined this list, and the average ratio of hurricanes to named storms in those ten seasons is 0.506 (2020, 14 of 30; 2005, 15 of 28; 1933, 11 of 20; 2010, 12 of 19; 1887 and 1995, 11 of 19; 2012 10 of 19; 2011, 7 of 19; 1969, 12 of 18; 2017, 10 of 17 and 1936, 7 of 17). On the other hand, 2021 joins this list of seasons where more than half the hurricanes became majors: 100% _ 1850 (7 of 7)*, 1917, 1930 (2 of 2), 1905 (1 of 1) 80% _ 1894, 1915 (4 of 5) 75% _ 1926 (6 of 8) ... 1941 (3 of 4) 71.4% _ 1964 (5 of 7) 66.7% _ 1996, 2004 (6 of 9) ... 1909, 1932, 1948 (4 of 6) ... 1873, 1883, 1900, 1957, 2009 (2 of 3) 62.5% _ 1961, 1999, 2008 (5 of 8) 60% _ 2017 (6 of 10) ... 1935, 1988 (3 of 5) 57.1% _ 2012, 2016, 2021 (4 of 7) 54.4% _ 1933, 1950 (6 of 11) 50% _ numerous examples incl 2019 (3 of 6), 2020 (7 of 14) It could be noted then that 2021 produced four major hurricanes out of a smaller number of hurricanes than any years except 1894 (5), 1909 (6), 1915 (5), 1932 (6), 1948 (6). ____________ * 1850 (7 of 7) is considered less reliable as both a total and a ratio than the other data.

Updated anomalies and projections ... ________________________________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH __ DEN _PHX _SEA _ 11th _________ ( 10d anom ) __________ +2.8 _+1.4 _+1.0 __+4.1 _+5.7_+12.2__+9.8 _+7.5 _+0.2 _ 21st _________ ( 20d anom ) __________+4.7 _+4.7 _+4.0__+7.5 _+6.3_+10.7__+8.8 _+4.0 _-1.2 _ 11th _________ ( p20d anom ) _________+8.0 _+7.0 _+6.0 __+6.0_+8.0_+10.0__+5.5 _+4.5_-1.5 _ 11th _________ ( p27d anom ) _________ +5.0 _+4.0 _+3.0 __+3.5_+5.0_+7.0 __+2.5 _+3.0 _-1.5 _ 21st _________ ( 31d anom ) __________ +2.5 _+2.5 _+2.0 __+5.0 _+5.0_+8.0__+5.0 _+3.5 _-3.0 _ Final anomalies _____________________ +5.9 _+4.7 _+3.5 __+7.5 _+8.7_+12.4_+7.2 _+3.4 _-4.0 Snowfall (no fall) contest update ______ DCA _NYC _BOS _ ORD_DTW_BUF __DEN _SEA_BTV ___ (Snowfall to Dec 31) _______________ 0.0 _ 0.2 _ 0.4 ____ 1.9 _10.4 _10.7 ____ 4.8 _ 9.4 _15.0 ___________________ 11th _ After a rather average start in the east, mild central and west, a very mild interval now looms and will drive anomalies well up as they already are in Houston and Denver. Following that, rather cold is the current indication for the Christmas holiday period, especially in the northern tier, so I have reduced the large positive anomalies accordingly but with little time left at that point the month seems likely to end well above normal everywhere but the Pac NW. 21st _ The warmest period has come and gone in the east and anomalies will slowly sink back to less extreme positive outcomes. Central regions will stay in a subdued warmer regime and IAH in particular may not lose much of its current large anomaly (+12). DEN could have a few much colder days in the mix, PHX will stay warm to near end of month, and SEA is going into a deep freeze around Christmas for almost a week. The projections above will be used to generate preliminary scoring. Meanwhile, have updated the snowfall reports for the few locations that have seen any snow so far. DEN only at 0.3" and BOS 0.4", nothing measurable yet at DCA, NYC or ORD. SEA about to start its account with snow in the forecast. Jan 1st _ Posting final anomalies, will probably take my time with the scoring as it's New Years and I may not feel like pushing myself ... seems to have stayed much milder in the east, pushing those anomalies above our forecasts by quite a margin. The scoring will need to be converted to the max 60 model for quite a few locations, I believe. Anomalies posted are either confirmed (if bold) or close estimates from 31st climate data and 1st-30th CF6. Snowfalls also updated through midnight Dec 31st. All locations now show final anomalies and scoring is complete.

Yesterday, 2021 became a top ten wettest year for NYC ... this is part of a longer list I posted on Friday in this thread. I have copied only the years overtaken since Nov 1st, the full list includes all those passed in October. NYC passed 2003 and then 1903 on Dec 6th to reach 10th place as shown ... Rank __ YEAR ___ TOTAL PRECIP _ 01 ____ 1983 ____ 80.56" _ 02 ____ 2011 ____ 72.81" _ 03 ____ 1972 ____ 67.03" _ 04 ____ 2018 ____ 65.55" _ 05 ____ 1989 ____ 65.11" _ 06 ____ 2007 ____ 61.67" (needs 2.87"to tie) _ 07 ____ 1975 ____ 61.21" (needs 2.41" to tie) _ 08 ____ 1990 ____ 60.92" (needs 2.12" to tie) _ 09 ____ 2006 ____ 59.89" (needs 1.09" to tie) _ 10 ____ 2021 ____ 58.80" (.42" on Dec 6) _ 11 ____ 1903 ____ 58.52" (passed Dec 6 at .14") _ 12 ____ 2003 ____ 58.42" (passed Dec 6 at .04") _ 13 ____ 1889 ____ 58.18" (passed Nov 22) _ 14 ____ 1913 ____ 58.00" (passed Nov 13) _ 15 ____ 1973 ____ 57.32" (passed Nov 12)

The increase in December temperatures in the past forty years has produced a top ten that is almost all from the recent past, only 1891 in 9th place came before 1982. How does that compare to the other eleven months? This is the number of top ten months that have occurred since 1980 (including that year), so the number before 1980 is whatever needs to be added to get 10. JAN 4 _______ JUL 6 FEB 9 _______ AUG 8* MAR 5 ______ SEP 4* APR 7* ______ OCT 5* MAY 4 _______ NOV 6 JUN 4 _______ DEC 9 ______________________________________________ _ * April had a tie for 10th (1945, 1994) so the count is 7 recent and 4 older, rather than 7 and 3. _ * Aug had a three-way tie for 9th, of which one was recent, so the count is 8 recent, 3 older. _ * Sept had a tie for 10th also, but both years were recent, so the count is 4 recent and 7 older. _ * Oct had a tie for 10th (1946, 1954) so the count is 5 recent and 6 older. _______________________________________________ Since 1980 to 2021 is 42 years out of the 153 total years the number of top ten months that should be expected at random for each month would be close to 3 (2.7). So all twelve months have seen more than random expectation but the four at 4 and the two at 5 are not running way ahead of the pace. Given that there are four extra years due to the ties, the total number of top ten months is 124 of which 71 are in the recent past (1980 to present) which compares to a random expectation of 33. Another cluster of 15 occur around 1941 to 1955, the years between 1956 and 1979 seem to occur about as often as one might expect at random, and before 1945 a top ten finish is relatively rare, there are only 19 in total. January 1932, March 1945 and June 1943 remain the only first place months from before the modern era. If the urban heat island was factored in, Sept 1881 would probably move up from third to first as well. January, May and September seem to be the months least skewed towards modern warmth in their top ten lists.

I could add that spring blooming rhododendron and cherry blossom have been spotted in March-like state in the Vancouver BC area in the past week during very mild spell there. Pattern has shifted to much colder now, with the storm track now roughly OR-s ID-WY instead of at 55 N in western Canada. We had 3" snow earlier today and more normal temps for here, 28 F. Coast had rain-snow mix. Probably won't lead to much change downstream for a while though, if anything could warm things up as source of warm sectors further south now.

If there are no further tropical storms this month, the contest will end on December 31st and the winner at this point would be wxdude64 (98.5 points) -- the prediction of 19/7/4 hit both the hurricanes and majors right on. Those who had the right number of named storms (21) included second place JKeithLee, Newman and hudsonvalley21 while the only other person to guess seven hurricanes was Iceresistance. Nobody in the contest predicted fewer hurricanes than what we ended up getting in 2021. About half the field selected four majors. See the table posted Sep 24 (and edited since then) for the full standings. If there should happen to be one more tropical storm and no further hurricanes, then wxdude64 would share the win with IntenseWind002. Will post again on January 1st or 2nd (sobriety having been restored) with a confirmation of this post or any necessary changes. Thanks for playing.

Apologies if this subject already covered (if so would appreciate a link) or if you think it should go into its own thread, but despite the dry November (1.12" 12th driest on record) at NYC, the year still passed three in total precip and now sits in 12th place. It will be interesting to see how many more years 2021 can pass before time runs out. The rest of the top 32 which would include the three years passed in the last thirty days and 17 others passed in the second half of October (of which 12 were passed in the October 26th 3.30" rainstorm after one on Oct 16th) are as follows (source, a data set that Don Sutherland sent me from which I derived annual and monthly totals, thanks again to Don for that, see climate change forum for a recent post in a thread I started there which catalogues much much more NYC and Toronto historical data with a link to a forum (net-weather UK) which has larger download capacity for the supporting excel files) ... Rank __ YEAR ___ TOTAL PRECIP _ 01 ____ 1983 ____ 80.56" _ 02 ____ 2011 ____ 72.81" _ 03 ____ 1972 ____ 67.03" _ 04 ____ 2018 ____ 65.55" _ 05 ____ 1989 ____ 65.11" _ 06 ____ 2007 ____ 61.67" (needs 3.29"to tie) _ 07 ____ 1975 ____ 61.21" (needs 2.83" to tie) _ 08 ____ 1990 ____ 60.92" (needs 2.64" to tie) _ 09 ____ 2006 ____ 59.89" (needs 1.51" to tie) _ 10 ____ 1903 ____ 58.52" (needs .14" to tie) _ 11 ____ 2003 ____ 58.42" (needs .04" to tie) _ 12 ____ 2021 ____ 58.38" (to Dec 2) _ 13 ____ 1889 ____ 58.18" (passed Nov 22) _ 14 ____ 1913 ____ 58.00" (passed Nov 13) _ 15 ____ 1973 ____ 57.32" (passed Nov 12) _ 16 ____ 1984 ____ 57.03" (passed Oct 30) _ 17 ____ 1971 ____ 56.77" (passed Oct 30) _ 18 ____ 1996 ____ 56.19" (passed Oct 29 at .01") _ 19 ____ 1927 ____ 56.06" (passed Oct 27 at .02") _ 20 ____ 2005 ____ 55.97" (passed Oct 26 at 3.23") _ 21 ____ 1975 _____ 54.73" (passed Oct 26 at 1.99") _ 22 ____ 2014 ____ 53.79" (passed Oct 26 at 1.05") _ 23 ____ 2009 ____ 53.62" (passed Oct 26 at .88") _ 24 ____ 2008 ____ 53.61" (passed Oct 26 at .87") _ 25 ____ 1933 ____ 53.53" (passed Oct 26 at .79") _ 26 ____ 1888 ____ 53.32" (passed Oct 26 at .58") _ 27 ____ 1919 ____ 53.29" (passed Oct 26 at .55") _ 28 ____ 1920 ____ 53.20" (passed Oct 26 at .46") _ 29 ____ 2019 ____ 53.19" (passed Oct 26 at .45") _ 30 ____ 1937 ____ 52.97" (passed Oct 26 at .23") _ 31 ____ 1902 ____ 52.77" (passed Oct 26 at .03") _ 32 ____ 1884 ____ 52.25" (passed Oct 16) _____________________________________________________________ Note that the large majority of these wet years are recent, only eleven were before 1950 including all four of 25th to 28th place as well as 30th to 32nd, in a period of record dating back to 1869. Another ten were in the period 1971-2000 and eleven more 2001-2021. At the end of September 2021 was ranked 33rd wettest so it passed 18 years in October to become 15th wettest after October. This year had 52.74" when the Oct 26 rainstorm began and 56.04" when it ended, and it moved from 31st to 19th place during that day. It took down four more during additional rainfalls Oct 27th to 31st. It passed three more in November despite the low rainfall total which included a dry spell Nov 1-10. Looks like it could pass four or five more years and finish around 6th to 8th. The top five appear fairly safe.

Final Report on the Four Seasons Contest 2020-2021 ___ Four Seasons contest updated standings ___ FORECASTER ____ SCORE WINTER 20-21 ___ PTS __ SPRING 21 _ PTS __ SUMMER 21 _PTS ___ AUTUMN 21 _PTS ___ TOTAL DonSutherland1 _____ 730 + 1163 = 1893 _____ 10 _______1806 _____ 6 ______ 1672 ____ 4 _______ 1867 __ 7 ________ 27 RodneyS _____________ 616 + 1229 = 1845 ______ 7 _______ 1528 _____1 _______1804 ____ 7 _______ 1846 ___ 6 _______ 21 Tom _________________ 668 + 1033 = 1701 ______ 4 _______ 1841 ____ 10 ______ 1625 ____ 1 _______ 1769 ___ 5 _______ 20 wxallannj _____________668 + 1006 = 1674 ______3 _______ 1780 _____ 5 _______1812 ____10 _______ 1605 ___ 1 _______ 19 BKViking _____________ 668 + 1094 = 1762 ______5 _______ 1768 _____4 ______ 1734 ____ 6 _______ 1703 ___ 4 _______ 19 ___ Consensus _______ 689 + 1088 = 1777 _____ 6 _______ 1774 _____ 4 _______ 1670 ____ 3 _______ 1714 ___ 4 _______ 17 wxdude64 ___________ 500 + 1075 = 1575 ______ 1 ________ 1835 _____7_______1676 ____ 5 _______ 1395 ___ 1 ________ 14 hudsonvalley21 ______ 716 + 1047 = 1763 ______ 6 _______ 1760 _____ 3 ______ 1658 ____ 3 _______ 1634 ___ 2 _______ 14 RJay _________________ 686 + 864 = 1550 _______ 1 _______ 1634 _____ 1 _______1555 ____ 1 _______ 1946 ___10 _______ 13 ___ Normal ___________ 524 + 950 = 1474 ________1 ________1638 ______1 _______1698 ____ 5 _______ 1362 ___ 1 _______ 8 Roger Smith __________580 + 959 = 1539 ________ 1 _______ 1300 ______1 _______1650 ____ 2 _______ 1684 ___ 3 _______ 7 Scotty Lightning _____ 586 + 1020 = 1606 _______2 _______ 1684 _____ 1 _______ 1599 ____ 1 _______ 1374 ___ 1 _______ 5 so_whats_happening _ dnp + 928 = 928__(2/3)__ 1 _______ 1733 _____ 2 _______1593 ____ 1 _______ 1549 ___ 1 _______ 5 Deformation Zone ____ (not entered) _____________________ (not entered) ______1052 (2/3) 1 _______ 1601 ___ 1 _______ 2 ___________________________________________________________ Winter scores are total of Dec 2020 and (Jan+Feb) 2021. Points _ 10 for high score, 7 for second, 6 for third, etc, and 1 point for all who enter at least 2/3. (scores and points for consensus and Normal do not alter progressions of scores for forecasters). ______________________________________________________________ Congrats to DonSutherland 1 for winning the four seasons award in this contest year. RJay is our autumn champion.

I have edited in the various monthly and seasonal values for Nov 2021 and autumn 2021. The season was quite warm for Toronto ranking close to 8th in both raw and adjusted data, the month of November was closer to normal than either September or October at both locations. In fact Nov 2021 was a little below the long-term average when adjusted for urban heat island at NYC although still somewhat above for Toronto. After rather wet months Sept and Oct, Nov was relatively dry. There was about 10 cm of snow towards the end of the month in Toronto and traces of snow in NYC which is not far from average in both cases. Since there will be considerable data to be added for the year 2021, I will hold off on updating the excel files for downloads until that can be added in, so the next time new downloads will be available will be early January 2022. Check back then for a brief summary of 2021 trends and (the link to) those updated files (which will be available in the Net-weather equivalent thread).

Table of forecasts for December 2021 _FORECASTER __________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA RJay ___________________________+2.5 _ +2.5 _ +2.5 __ +3.0 _ +2.0 _ +1.5 __ +4.5 _ +3.5 __ 0.0 RodneyS _______________________ +2.1 _ +1.6 _ +1.3 __ +3.2 _ +3.7 _ +4.7 __ +5.6 _ +4.1 _ +0.4 wxallannj ______________________ +2.0 _ +1.7 _ +1.0 __ +0.7 _ +2.6 _ +2.8 __ +1.7 _ +1.8 _ -0.9 DonSutherland 1 _______________ +1.7 _ +1.5 _ +1.1 __ +3.0 _ +2.4 _ +3.5 __ +4.0 _ +3.0 _ -0.5 Deformation Zone ______________ +1.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.0 __ +1.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.5 __ +3.0 _ +3.0 _ -0.5 so_whats_happening ___________ +1.5 _ +1.1 __ 0.0 ___ +1.0 _ +1.2 _ +1.7 __ +2.0 _ +1.5 _ -0.4 ___ Consensus __________________ +1.4 _ +1.4 _ +1.0 __ +1.1 _ +1.7 _ +2.4 __ +2.7 _ +2.8 _ -0.3 BKViking _______________________ +1.2 _ +1.3 _ +1.0 __ +1.2 _ +1.6 _ +1.8 __ +2.5 _ +2.8 _ -0.5 Tom ____________________________ +1.1 _ +1.2 _ +1.0 __ +1.2 _ +0.9 _ +1.1 __ +1.5 _ +1.8 _ -0.3 Scotty Lightning _______________ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 __ +0.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 __ +0.5 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 hudsonvalley21 ________________ +0.7 _ +1.9 _ +0.7 __ +2.1 _ +1.8 _ +3.0 __ +3.0 _ +2.7 _ +0.2 ___ Normal _____________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 Roger Smith ___________________ -1.0 __ -1.2 _ -0.8 __ -1.7 __ 0.0 __ +2.5 __ +2.5 _ +4.7 _ -1.5 wxdude64 _____________________ -1.3 __ -1.3 _ -0.9 __ -1.3 _ +1.6 __ +2.3 __ +2.8 _ +2.6 _ -0.2 ============================================================ Snowfall Forecast Contest Winter 2021-22 __________________________________ DCA __NYC __BOS ___ ORD __DTW __BUF __ DEN __SEA __BTV wxdude64 _______________________20.0 __ 38.0 __ 54.0 __ 52.0 __ 47.0 __104.0__ 58.0 __13.0 __105.0 Tom ______________________________17.7 __ 36.9 __ 46.1 __ 48.7 __ 47.8 __ 94.4 __ 65.2 __ 8.1 __102.2 Roger Smith ______________________17.5 __ 32.5 __ 50.7 __ 44.8 __ 49.5 __107.2 __ 52.0 __10.5__ 82.2 so_whats_happening _____________16.0 __ 34.0 __ 62.0 __ 41.0 __ 45.0 __ 74.0 __ 36.0 __11.0 __ 91.0 RodneyS ________________________ 12.8 __ 25.0 __ 45.0 __ 54.0 __ 42.0 __ 91.0 __ 48.0 __12.0 __ 75.0 wxallannj ________________________12.0 __ 28.0 __ 36.0 __ 38.0 __ 36.0 __ 92.0 __ 41.0 __11.0 __ 95.0 hudsonvalley21 __________________11.6 __ 30.3 __ 33.8 __ 32.7 __ 32.4 __ 94.0 __ 45.0 __10.2 __108.8 Scotty Lightning _________________10.0 __ 23.0 __ 38.0 __ 44.0 __ 38.0 __106.0 __ 49.0 __ 7.0 __129.0 DonSutherland 1 __________________9.4 __ 27.3 __ 44.9 __ 35.1 __ 28.3 __ 84.0 __ 43.4 __ 9.5 __ 71.5 BKViking _________________________ 8.0 __ 28.0 __ 42.0 __ 44.0 __ 25.0 __ 88.0 __ 55.0 __22.0__ 85.0 Deformation Zone ________________ 8.0 __ 18.0 __ 36.0 __ 38.0 __ 44.0 __ 70.0 __ 24.0 __ 4.0 __ 86.0 RJay _____________________________ 5.0 __ 20.0 __ 42.0 __ 40.0 __ 34.0 __ 90.0 __ 50.0 __13.0 __100.0 mean of forecasts _______________12.3 __ 28.4 __ 44.2 ___ 42.7 __ 39.1 __ 91.2 __ 47.2 __10.9 __ 94.2 ====================================

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA -1.0 -1.2 -0.8 -1.7 0.0 2.5 2.5 4.7 -1.5 DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV 17.5 32.5 50.7 44.8 49.5 107.2 52.0 10.5 82.2

Just a heads up to those who enjoy snowfall forecast contests ... Northeast US snow contest enters its 22nd year and the deadline there is also end of today, the link is here: http://www.newx-forecasts.com/#RULES The site runs a winter-snowfall contest and for any storms that appear, storm forecast contests. Probably a large number of the regulars there are members of American Weather Forum with (in some cases) different usernames. The region covered runs from Maine to North Carolina. Also please note deadline approaching for the temperature forecast contest here (general weather forum) which contains a winter snowfall forecast segment.

Just a heads up to those who enjoy snowfall forecast contests ... Northeast US snow contest enters its 22nd year and the deadline there is also end of today, the link is here: http://www.newx-forecasts.com/#RULES The site runs a winter-snowfall contest and for any storms that appear, storm forecast contests. Probably a large number of the regulars there are members of American Weather Forum with (in some cases) different usernames. The region covered runs from Maine to North Carolina.