Roger Smith

More likely from skateboard to snowboard.

So for DEN the actual result (at KDEN) was a mixture of rain, sleet and snow, they're only saying 1.0" on 8th out of 0.72" precip, and today's prelim report is .02" precip with light snow mentioned (but they don't give an amount until end of day). Even if that 0.02" is something like 0.2 to 1.0 more, the total snow was sparse at the location, probably did increase steadily across the DEN metro to reach mostly snow in the mix at higher elevations. Temperature anomalies on 8th (-30) and 9th (-29) have yanked the monthly anomaly down from +6 after 7d to -2 after 9d. This will continue for a day or two then DEN will see what I'm already seeing here, a return to the heat (highs here from Sunday to Wednesday have been 92, 65, 68, 84). Here we had a minimum of 33F on Tuesday morning (DEN had 31F). The anomalous cold was also quite exceptional in Utah. SLC on 8th had 55/43 for a -21 anomaly. Vernal in northeast UT had 41/31, not sure what anomaly that gives but assuming their normal mean is 2 lower than SLC, it would be around -32. Moab (Canyonlands) also failed to break 50. It has warmed up slightly today in Utah. At one point Bryce Canyon had a wind chill in the 20s (F). Normally it would be close to 80 F there at this time of year. I was there in 2016 and it was around 90 degrees on the first of September. Even more bizarre, I think Las Vegas had a midnight high and the entire night was warmer than most of the day. At this time of year, that rarely if ever happens in the desert southwest.

__ First report on this month's anomalies, trends, and updated seasonal maxima. __ _________________________DCA_NYC_BOS __ ORD_ATL_IAH _____ DEN_PHX_SEA _9th ___ (8d) ____________+2.1_+2.6_+1.7 __+2.7_+2.5_+3.9 ____ +1.2_+4.8 _+6.2 _17th __ (16d) __________ +0.7_+0.9_+0.2 __+1.7_+2.7_+3.9 ____ --2.0_+0.9 _+4.5 _24th __(23rd) __________--1.6 _--0.8_--1.5 __+1.0_+0.3_+2.3 ____ +1.3_+2.3_+4.2 _9th __ (p15d) ___________+2.5_+2.5_+1.5 __+1.0_+1.5_+2.0 ____--2.5_+1.5 _+5.0 _17th __ (p23d) __________+0.2_+0.3_--0.5 __+2.0_+2.0_+3.0 _____ 0.0_+1.5 _+3.5 _9th __ (p25d) ___________+3.0_+3.5_+2.5 __+2.0_+2.0_+2.0 ____ +0.5_+1.5 _+3.0 _9th __ (p30d) ___________+2.5_+3.0_+2.0 __+2.5_+2.5_+2.5 ____ +1.0_+2.0 _+2.5 _17th __ (p30d) __________+0.5_+0.5__0.0 __+2.5_+2.0_+2.5 ____ +1.0_+2.0 _+2.5 _24th __ (p30d) __________ 0.0_+0.5__0.0 __+2.0_+1.0_+2.5 ____ +1.5_+2.5 _+2.5 _1st Oct__(30d)__________--0.8_+0.8_+0.7 __+1.7_+0.3_+1.2 ____ +2.0_+3.1 _+4.2 Seasonal Max to date ___ 99 __ 96 __ 95 ___ 97 __ 96 __102 ____ 101 _ 118 __ 98 Notes: 9th _ DEN plunged from heat wave (seasonal max increased to 101 5th) to mixed rain/snow on 8th, 1.0" reported on 8th along with 0.72" precip. A small additional amount reported today. Anomaly for the day of -30 on 8th (-29 on 9th) was not quite enough to reverse the sign (the anomaly was about +6 after seven days) but now sitting around -3 after nine days. Other locations have had a less adventurous and mostly warmish start to the month. I experienced all but the mixed rain and snow here, temperature fell from 92 F on 6th to morning low of 33 F on 8th, now back up near 90 F. Bizarre to say the least, plus forest fire smoke advecting in from WA state (otherwise border remains closed). ... Following week looks similar to past 2-3 days in most areas, DEN will gradually flip back to warmth but will retain a negative anomaly likely to at least 20th. Longer term, warmish for most regions, cooling off in Pac NW compared to first half (close to normal), GFS 18z shows major hurricane near east coast US at end of run. (this not a factor in the temperature forecast but implies potential for late month cooler interval to follow its passage) Just for comparative purposes later, I extended the usual 16-day projection to end of month to see how much that changes by near end of September, based on assumption of persistence of pattern at end of run. RJay will be hoping I'm right (meaning GFS is right) while I will be hoping for a big error. Will score the seasonal max forecasts made back in May soon, I would think we're pretty much done increasing although ATL could add a degree or two I suppose. 17th _ Was a day late getting to the update, in any case, things have cooled back towards zero anomalies in the east and recovered at DEN to almost normal again. The rest of the month looks fairly bland in the east, warm in the west although not overly so for SEA. End of month projections can be regarded as rather approximate. When I feel more confident about them, I will post some provisional scoring. Looks like a mixed bag of scores at the moment, but too early to be very certain about trends. 24th _ Eastern stations had a cool week and have dipped below normal, will probably recover to near normal in a slightly warmer regime. The central and western locations will hold on to their small to medium sized positive anomalies and perhaps build on them slightly. Will follow up with provisional scoring soon. 1st Oct _ End of month anomalies are now all posted and scoring will be fully updated by 15z.

Hey raindancewx, 60 mph east wind gusts at KABQ -- that's stronger than almost anywhere else in this storm so far. Las Vegas had a gust to 50 mph at 0700h and I looked on their TV news sites, plenty of minor wind damage and four foot waves on Lake Mead (what's left of it). Looks to me like the cold northeast turning north to northwest outflow is petering out now as the dynamics weaken slowly, will be slowly back to ridge building over the far west from now on. Visible satellite imagery earlier showing massive smoke outflows in northeast CA towards northern central valley. Expect to hear some fire news later but not sure whether any other parts of the central valley experienced strong outflow winds, they did reach 29Palms earlier (in the Mojave). The humid wedge that was over the south-central interior of CA was gently nudged back to where it originated, the Sea of Cortez. Looks like the heat trough is bruised but still standing. Most of Utah is very chilly, Vernal is barely above freezing and they are not high up at all. I'm sure if they got even a trace of snow it would earliest on record (unless the dinosaurs were keeping records maybe).

Welcome, the word presentation I think should be introduction -- a presentation is when you put on a show. This is the place you wanted, no doubt about that. Most of the real action here is in the regional sub-forums. Given your interests, I would recommend the Great Lakes / Ohio valley forum and in the winter, the various east coast forums. J'aime egalement le forum "meteociel.fr"

The flow of cold, dry air around the northwest flank of this developing low has proved problematic for widespread portions of the northwestern U.S. and southern BC. In some places, assisted by topography, northeast winds gusted to near 50 mph. This brought down tree branches and caused power failures scattered throughout the region. Blowing dust closed I-90 west of Spokane and also US 2 and US 395 highways near Spokane. I see from hourly reports that similar winds have spread out of the Green River valley into the Vernal UT region. Much of Nevada was reporting very windy conditions today (Labor Day). I think the impact on California may be very serious. The wind gradient will increase there on Tuesday and Wednesday, it won't turn colder though, just a hot Santa Ana downsloping wind, and with numerous wildfires already underway, some of those might turn into uncontainable fast moving firestorms like the situation that destroyed the city of Paradise two years ago. Where I live, which is roughly 150 miles northwest of Spokane, we had no severe impacts, but gusty northeast winds made it feel very chilly, compared to the heat wave we were experiencing, and tonight is cold enough for scattered frost through the higher terrain around here. The heat is going to build back up as the ridge redevelops over top of the Colorado low which will be ejected as a closed low heading east-northeast. Quite an active weather pattern for early September, but I remember that it snowed heavily in Calgary at this time of year in 2014.

Looking more severe as the front enters southwestern ON, could be some storm damage west of London and also around Cambridge ON recently based on radar, and the front is going to hit the Toronto area around 0500h to 0600h EDT. Came on looking for any reports, I guess it's sleep time there but people will be waking up to vigorous thunderstorms soon.

This is already setting up north of the border. The heat ridge over the west coast has begun to retrogress slightly and it's allowing a much colder high over northern Alberta to push south, with fronts slowly edging west as well. My location is still in the warm air (it has been hot and hazy here for 2-3 days, highs in low 90s). The front is into eastern BC now and Calgary AB has a northeast wind, rain and 41 F. It will probably be like that around Denver by Tuesday, I think the snow will be confined to higher western suburbs and the Rockies, the high plains will be chilly but maybe a bit above 40 F with rain mixing at times. These devellopments spell trouble for California already facing some wildfire threats, a Santa Ana wind situation will intensify, the heat will remain in place west of the Sierra Nevada, and we may be hearing about wind-driven firestorms again.

Table of forecasts September 2020 FORECASTER ________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA RJay ________________________ +2.5 _ +2.5 _ +2.5 ___ +1.5 _ +1.5 __ 0.0 ___ +2.0 _ +3.0 _ +3.0 DonSutherland 1 _____________+1.8 _ +2.0 _ +1.7 ____ 0.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.3 ___ +0.2 _ +2.7 _ +3.2 Yoda ________________________ +1.8 _ +1.4 _ +1.5 ___ +0.5 _ +1.7 _ +1.1 ___ +2.0 _ +3.5 _ +2.4 hudsonvalley21 _____________ +1.7 _ +1.3 _ +1.4 ___ +0.4 _ +1.9 _ +0.5 ___ +1.1 _ +2.2 _ +2.2 wxallannj ___________________ +1.4 _ +1.7 _ +1.9 ___ --0.6 _ +1.8 _ +1.1 ___ +0.7 _ +2.3 _ +1.6 BKViking ____________________+1.4 _ +1.5 _ +1.4 ___ --0.2 _ +1.0 _ +0.2 ___ +2.4 _ +2.6 _ +3.3 ___ Consensus ______________ +1.3 _ +1.3 _ +1.4 ___ +0.2 _ +1.0 _ +0.7 ___ +1.1 _ +2.5 _ +2.1 Tom ________________________ +1.1 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ___ +0.6 _ +1.4 _ +0.4 ___ +1.1 _ +1.9 _ +0.3 RodneyS ____________________ +1.0 _ +1.3 _ +2.0 ___ +1.5 _ +0.1 _ +1.2 ___ +1.4 _ +3.0 _ +3.6 wxdude64 __________________ +0.9 _ +1.0 _ +1.1 ___ --0.4 _ +0.2 _ +1.1 ___ +1.1 _ +2.4 _ +1.9 Roger Smith _________________ +0.8 _ +0.6 _ +0.4 ___ +0.5 _ +0.8 _ +0.8 ___ +1.5 _ +1.5 _ --0.2 Scotty Lightning _____________ +0.5 _ +0.5 __ 0.0 ___ --0.5 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ___ +0.5 _ +1.0 __ 0.0 Jakkel Wx ___________________ +0.4 _ +0.6 _ +1.1 ___ --0.3 _ +0.5 _ +0.2 ___ +0.8 _ +2.6 _ +1.4 ___ Normal ___________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

Update on Four Seasons contest This contest tracks your seasonal performances. Ten points are awarded to top total score in each season, then 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2 points for 2nd-7th, and 1 point for anyone else who enters all three contests. This table shows the points awarded in the winter and spring segments, followed by total points for June, July and August, and the points generated. The table order is total points for the contest. FORECASTER __________ Winter, spring pts ____ Summer totals __ Summer pts ___ TOTAL POINTS RodneyS ____________________ 10 _____ 6 _______ 1873 ____________ 4 _____________ 20 DonSutherland 1 ______________5 ____ 10 _______ 1846 ____________ 2 ____________ 17 hudsonvalley21 _______________4 _____ 7 _______ 1901 _____________6 ____________ 17 RJay _________________________ 1 _____ 5_______ 1935 _____________10 ____________16 ______ Consensus ____________ 5 _____ 5 _______ 1912 _____________ 6 ____________ 16 BKViking _____________________ 6 _____ 2_______ 1916 _____________ 7 ____________ 15 wxallannj _____________________7 _____ 3 ________1858 _____________3 ____________ 13 Tom __________________________3 _____ 4_______ 1882 _____________ 5 ____________ 12 Scotty Lightning ______________ 2 _____ 1_______ 1820 _____________ 1 _____________ 4 wxdude64 ____________________ 1 _____ 1_______ 1721 _____________ 1 _____________ 3 Roger Smith __________________ 1 ______1 ______ 1799 _____________ 1 _____________ 3 Brian5671 ____________________ 1 ______1______ 1808 _____________ 1 ______________3 _________ Normal _____________ 1 ______ 1______ 1352 ______________1 _____________ 3 Jakkelwx _____________________-- ______ -- ______ 1797 _____________1 ______________1 _________________________________________________________ The summer scoring was fairly close compared to other seasons, congrats to RJay for top score, and the annual contest now looks fairly competitive.

< < < < < ........ <<<< ---- ====== Annual Scoring (Jan-Aug) 2020 ====== ---- >>>> .......> > > > > Numbers in red denote highest cumulative scores for each of nine locations. Numbers in bold black type denote highest subtotals for regions. FORECASTER ______________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__ c/e __DEN_PHX_SEA__west ___ TOTAL RodneyS ___________________588_ 564_622 __1774 __497 _483_508__1488 __3262 __590_515_484_ 1589 ____4851 Don Sutherland.1 ___________532 _560_564 __1656 __449 _524_540 __1513 __3169 __386_486_516_ 1388 ____4557 hudsonvalley21 ____________487 _508 _581 __1576 __392 _508 _553 __1453 __3029 __435_558_503_ 1496 ____4525 RJay _______________________554 _565_513 __1632 __417 _520 _511 __1448 __3080 __480_450_504_ 1434 ____4514 ___ Consensus _____________474 _482 _585 __1541__374 _497_560 __1431 __2972 __438_545_506_ 1489 ____ 4461 wxallannj __________________494 _534 _573 __1601 __340 _495 _556 __1391 __2992 __424_515_498_ 1437 ____4429 BKViking __________________ 442 _466 _537 __1445 __415 _434 _530__1379 __2824 __455_547_537_ 1539 ____ 4363 Tom _______________________ 476 _476 _546 __1498__308 _546 _515__1369 __2867 __425_543_495_ 1463 ____4330 Brian5671 _________________ 494 _502 _526 __1522 __323 _485_545__1353 __2875 __318_478_542_ 1438 ____ 4313 Scotty Lightning ____________368 _338 _440 __1146 __314 _487_596__1397 __2543 __368_530_566_ 1464 ____ 4007 wxdude64 __________________397 _385 _444 __1226__304 _436 _542__1282 __2508 __ 416_517_392_ 1325 ____3833 Roger Smith ________________378 _385 _484 __1247__320 _509_462__1291 __2538 __ 450_352_386_ 1188 ____3726 ___ Normal _________________272 _268 _356 __ 896 __236 _436 _464__1136 __2032 __310_442_ 526_ 1278 ____3310 JakkelWx _ (6/8) ___________ 304 _299 _422 __1025__310 _309 _452__1081 __2106 __314 _332 _286__932 ____3038 yoda _ (2/8) _________________64 __ 43 __ 16 __ 123 __ 18_118 _125 __ 261 ___ 384 __ 71 _161_ 70 __ 302 _____ 686 rclab _ (1/8) _________________05 __ 00 __ 00 __ 005 __ 00 _ 11 _ 24 __ 035 ____ 040 __ 56 _ 88 _ 66 __ 210 _____ 250 dwave _ (1/8) _______________ 72 __ 75 __ 48 __ 195 __ 12 _ 25 _ 10 __ 047 ____ 242 __ 16 _ 34 _ 00 __ 050 _____ 292 Maxim _ (1/8) _______________00 __ 00 __ 00 __ 000 __ 00 _ 20 _ 46 __ 066 ____ 066 __ 32 _ 50 _ 34 __ 116 _____ 182 Rhino16 _ (1/8) ______________00 __ 05 __ 20 __ 025 __ 00 _ 13 _ 30 __ 043 ____ 068 __ 04 _ 52 _ 54 __ 110 _____ 178 ============================================================================== Extreme forecast standings January to July 54 of 72 forecasts so far have qualified for an extreme forecast award for the warmest forecast(s), 38 for warmest and 16 for coldest. FORECASTER ____ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _ Apr _ May _ Jun _ Jul _ Aug __ Standings to date Brian 5671 _______ 4-0 __ 1-0 __ 3-1 __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ ---- __ 1-1 __ ---- __11-2 Roger Smith ______ ---- __ ---- __ 1-0 __ 4-2 __ 1-0 __ ----- __ ---- __ 4-0 __10-2 RodneyS _________ 2-0 __ 3-0 __ 0-1 __ ---- __ 2-0 __ 2-0 __ 0-1 __0-1 __ 9-3 DonSutherland1___0-0 __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ ---- __ 2-0 __ 2-0 __1-0 __ 8-0 RJay _____________ ----- __ ----- __ 3-0 __ ---- __ ----- __ 1-0 __ 3-0 __ ---- ___7-0 Scotty Lightning __ 2-0 __ 0-0 __ ---- __ 1-0 __----- __ ----- __ 1-0 __1-0 ___4-0 Normal ___________1-0 __ 0-1 __ ---- __ 1-0 __ ---- __ 2-0 __ ---- __ ---- ___ 4-1 Tom _____________ 1-0 __ 0-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ 1-0 __ ----- __ ---- __ ---- ___ 2-0 RClab ____________ 2-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ----- __ ----- __ ---- __ ---- ___ 2-0 hudsonvalley21 ___ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ----- __ 1-0 __ ---- ___ 1-0 yoda _____________ 0-0 __ 1-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ----- __ ---- __ ---- ___ 1-0 wxdude64 ________ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ 1-0 __ ---- __ ----- __ ---- __ ---- ___ 1-0 Jakkelwx _________ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ 1-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- ___ 1-0 wxallannj _________ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ 1-1 __ ---- __ ---- ___ 1-1 ================================================================================ BEST SCORES -- Totals for January to August Forecasters are listed in same order as annual points standings. Ties are possible which is why some locations have more than two best scores, also, if Normal or consensus achieve a top score, the actual forecaster with high score gets an award also. FORECASTER ______________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA__west___Months RodneyS ___________________ 2 ___ 1 ___ 2 ____ 2 ____ 2 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 2 ____ 2 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 2 _____ 3 _ Jan, Feb, May DonSutherland.1 ____________1 ___ 2 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 3 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 _____ 2 _ Mar, Apr hudsonvalley21 _____________0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 RJay _______________________ 2 ___ 2 ___ 0 ____ 3 ____ 1 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____ 2 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 _____ 2 _ Jun, Jul ___ Consensus ______________0 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 wxallannj ___________________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 _____ 0 BKViking ___________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 _____ 0 Tom ________________________0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 Brian5671 __________________ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 0 _____ 0 Scotty Lightning ____________ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 2 ___ 2 ___ 1 _____ 0 wxdude64 __________________0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 Roger Smith ________________ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 _____ 1 __ Aug _____ Normal _______________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 _____ 1 ___ Apr Jakkelwx ___________________0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 RClab _______________________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 _____ 0

+0.8 _ +0.6 _ +0.4 ___ +0.5 _ +0.8 _ +0.8 ___ +1.5 _ +1.5 _ -0.2

Predict the temperature anomalies (F deg) for these nine locations: DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

The count is now 13/4/1. Here's the forecast table again, this time it's what you need to complete your forecast. In some cases, it is no longer mathematically possible so the number of hurricanes will be greater than the number of named storms. FORECASTER ____________________St_ Hu_ Maj Windspeed ______________________ 9 _ 7 _ 5 WxWatcher007 __________________ 8 _ 7 _ 4 Roger Smith _____________________ 7 _ 9 _ 6 NutleyBlizzard ___________________ 7 _ 8 _ 3 Orangeburg Wx __________________ 7 _ 7 _ 4 NCforecaster89 __________________7 _ 6 _ 4 Snowlover2 ______________________ 6 _ 8 _ 4 Thunderman _____________________ 6 _ 6 _ 4 BlueDXer75 ______________________ 6 _ 5 _ 4 NorthHillsWx ____________________ 6 _ 5 _ 3 ___ Consensus (means) _________ 5.5_ 6.3_3.9 Rhino16 _________________________ 5 _10 _ 4 Rtd208 __________________________ 5 _ 8 _ 6 Newman _________________________5 _ 6 _ 3 Yoda _____________________________5 _ 4 _ 3 JakkelWx ________________________ 4 _ 6 _ 5 Alfoman _________________________ 4 _ 5 _ 4 Jaxjagman ______________________ 3 _ 5 _ 4 NHC (mid-range) _________________3 _ 4 _ 3.5 CSU _____________________________ 3 _ 4 _ 3 Olafminesaw ____________________ 2 _ 4 _ 3 Crownweather ___________________ 2 _ 4 _ 2 ______________________________________________________________

Final scoring for August 2020 Scoring is based on the latest update above showing confirmed end of month anomalies. ^ PHX has been converted to max-60 scoring as it appears that the highest raw score would be around 54. The progression will be in increments of five points 5-60. No raw scores were higher than the progression scores. Forecaster __________________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH_cent_c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA_west __ TOTAL Roger Smith _________________ 80 _ 84 _ 90 __ 254 __ 82 _ 70 _ 90 __ 242 _ 496 __ 80 _ 60^_ 96__ 236 ___ 732 hudsonvalley21 ______________ 88 _ 86 _ 94 __ 268 __ 48 _ 98 _ 98 __ 244 _ 512 __ 12 _ 30^_ 70 __ 112 ___ 624 Tom _________________________ 98 _ 96 _ 98 __ 292 __ 34 _ 98 _ 84 __ 216 _ 508 __ 28 _ 25^_ 60 __ 113 ___ 621 BKViking _____________________88 _ 98 _ 92 __ 278 __ 28 _ 96 _ 80 __ 204 _ 482 __ 32 _ 35^_ 70 __ 137 ___ 619 ___ Consensus _______________ 88 _ 94 _ 96 __ 278 __ 34 _100_ 84 __218 _ 496 __ 20 _ 33^_ 68 __ 121 ___ 617 wxallannj ____________________ 84 _ 92 _ 96 __ 272 __ 20 _ 94 _ 82 __ 196 _ 468 __ 18 _ 45^_ 66 __ 129 ___ 597 RodneyS _____________________ 88 _ 92 _ 96 __ 276 __ 30 _ 70 _ 52 __ 152 _ 428 __ 40 _ 55^_ 70 __ 165 ___ 593 DonSutherland1 _____________100 _100 _92 __ 292 __16 _ 76 _ 66 __ 158 _ 450 __ 10 _ 40^_ 84 __ 134 ___ 584 Brian5671 ___________________ 80 _ 78 _ 80 __ 238 __ 52 _ 80 _ 90 __ 222 _ 460 __ 30 _ 15^_ 74 __ 119 ___ 579 Scotty Lightning _____________100 _ 86 _ 80 __ 266 __ 32 _100_ 90__ 222 _ 488 __ 20 _ 05^_ 64 __ 089 ___ 577 wxdude64 ___________________ 94 _ 90 _ 98 __ 282 __ 22 _ 78 _ 62 __ 162 _ 444 __ 04 _ 50^_ 58 __ 112 ___ 556 RJay _________________________70 _ 74 _ 80 __ 224 __ 52 _100_ 60__ 212 _ 436 __ 20 _ 15^_ 74 __ 109 ___ 545 Jakkelwx ____________________ 84 _ 78 _ 86 __ 248 __ 60 _ 68 _ 76 __ 204 _ 452 __ 18 _ 20^_ 48 __ 086 ___ 538 Normal _______________________70 _ 66 _ 60 __ 196__ 12 _ 70 _ 60 __ 142 _ 338 __ 10 _ 00 _ 64 __ 074 ___ 412 ====================================================== Extreme forecast report At this point, five forecasts qualify, one for coldest and four for warmest. DCA ended up as a loss for RodneyS with coldest forecast +0.9 and wins for DonS, Scotty L(+1.5). ORD, DEN, PHX and SEA go to Roger Smith with warmest forecasts, in three cases below the actual values. The other four locations have fallen close to our consensus forecasts. ------------------------------------------------------------ The updated annual scoring summary will follow ...

Don't know about that yet, most majors occur in Sept-Oct (or late Aug). Outside chance one of these twin storms makes cat-3. Then all to play for in Sept-Oct.

13/2/0 in this Year of the Weak Tropical Storm. Could go to 13/4/0 if both Laura and Marco become marginal canes. Anyone care to hazard an updated guess? I would say 28/15/3 at this rate. The later storms are much more likely to start beefing up. Main question is, will this production rate continue? If so, we are climatologically one-third of the way into the season for total count, adjust that for more likely hurricane outcomes, and you get to something like 40/20/?? as any majors will evidently have to come from the Greek alphabet at this rate.

First look at anomalies and projections ... ________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 9th ____ (8d) ___________+1.8 _ +1.6 _ +2.9 _ --1.2 _ +1.8 _ --0.1 _ +2.4 _ +5.5 _ +1.2 16th __ (15d) __________ +2.1 _ +2.7 _ +4.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.3 _ +1.5 _ +2.9 _ +6.0 _ +0.9 23rd __ (22d) __________ +0.8 _ +1.3 _ +2.6 _ +2.4 _ +1.4 _ +1.2 _ +4.5 _ +5.7 _ +2.4 30th __ (29d) __________ +1.8 _ +2.0 _ +2.3 _ +4.5 _ +1.4 _ +1.6 _ +4.9 _ +6.1 _ +2.1 9th __ (p15d) __________ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +2.0 _ --1.0 _ +1.0 _ --0.3 _ +2.5 _ +5.0 _ +1.5 16th __ (p22d) _________ +1.5 _ +2.0 _ +2.5 _ +1.0 _ +1.5 _ +1.0 _ +3.0 _ +4.5 _ +1.5 9th __ (p25d) __________ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.5 _ --1.0 _ +1.0 __ 0.0 _ +3.0 _ +4.5 _ +1.0 16th __ (p31d) _________ +1.0 _ +1.5 _ +2.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +2.5 _ +4.0 _ +1.0 23rd __ (p31d) _________ +1.0 _ +1.5 _ +2.0 _ +3.0*_ +1.5 _ +1.0 _ +4.5 _ +5.0 _ +2.0 30th __ (p31d) _________ +1.5 _ +2.0 _ +2.0 _ +3.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 _ +4.5 _ +5.0 _ +2.0 1st __ (31d anom) _____ +1.5 _ +1.7 _ +2.0 _ +4.4_ +1.5 _ +2.0 _ +4.5_ +5.5 _ +1.8 __ Seasonal Max to date ___ 99 __ 96 __ 95 ___ 97 __ 96 __102 ____100 _ 118 __ 98 _____________________ 9th _ Rather subdued warmth except for the ongoing blistering heat in the west. Chicago in fact running a bit below average. The following week looks near average in many areas and continued very warm in the west. Have taken the projections for 16th-25th from assumptions of persistence as pattern looks fairly similar. No seasonal max changes so far in August, will post any that do show up (see July thread for the report on seasonal max to date). 16th _ Little change although far west warming rapidly, 16th hit new seasonal max for SEA at 98 F. 23rd _ Staying hot in the west, and near normal in the east, new seasonal maxes of 117 PHX, 100 DEN, 102 IAH. *27th _ Revised projection for ORD from +1.5 to +3.0 as currently +3.7, only slight cooling now indicated. 30th _ slight changes as we approach final validation. 1st _ Final anomalies were posted overnight and scoring is updated.

9/2/0 ... on the way to 45/10/0.

Table of forecasts for August 2020 FORECASTER _________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA RJay __________________________+3.0 _+3.0 _+3.0 __ +2.0 _+1.5 __0.0 ___ +0.5 _+1.0 _+0.5 Brian5671 ____________________ +2.5 _+2.8 _+3.0 __ +2.0 _+2.5 _+1.5 ___ +1.0 _+1.0 _+0.5 Roger Smith __________________ +2.5 _+2.5 _+2.5 __ +3.5 _+3.0 _+2.5 ___ +3.5 _+3.0 _+2.0 Jakkelwx _____________________ +2.3 _+2.8 _+2.7 __ +2.4 _+3.1 _+3.2 ___ +0.4 _+1.1 _--0.8 wxallannj _____________________ +2.3 _+2.1 _+1.8 __ +0.4 _+1.2 _+1.1 ___ +0.4 _+2.1 _+0.1 hudsonvalley21 _______________+2.1 _+2.4 _+2.3 __ +1.8 _+1.6 _+1.9 ___ +0.1 _+1.3 _+0.3 ___ Consensus ________________+2.1 _+2.0 _+2.2 __ +1.1 _+1.5 _+1.2 ___ +0.5 _+1.5 _+0.2 BKViking _____________________ +2.1 _+1.8 _+1.6 __ +0.8 _+1.3 _+1.0 ___ +1.1 _+1.8 _+0.3 wxdude64 ____________________ +1.8 _+1.2 _+2.1 __ +0.5 _+0.4 _+0.1 ___ --0.3 _+2.3 _--0.3 Tom __________________________+1.6 _+1.5 _+1.9 __ +1.1 _+1.6 _+1.2 ___ +0.9 _+1.2 _--0.2 DonSutherland1 ______________ +1.5 _+1.7 _+1.6 __ +0.2 _+0.3 _+0.3 ____ 0.0 _+2.0 _+1.0 Scotty Lightning ______________+1.5 _+1.0 _+1.0 __ +1.0 _+1.5 _+1.5 ___ +0.5 _+0.5 __0.0 RodneyS _____________________ +0.9 _+1.3 _+2.2 __ +0.9 __0.0 _--0.4 ___ +1.5 _+2.7 _+0.3 Normal ________________________ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ____ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 _____ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ------------------------------------------------------------ Note: forecasts color coded to show highest and lowest. Normal is lower than all forecasts for all locations except ATL (tied) and IAH, DEN and SEA (one or more forecasts below 0.0).

Thanks, Scotty, I have been a bit generous with late forecasts all year so your bite won't be very big when I get to the table of forecasts, something I hope to do this evening.

Tried to alert Scotty Lightning but his account does not accept PMs, and he only seems to come into the forum to enter this contest (very few posts otherwise). Calling Dr Lightning to the operating theater. July is fully scored and updated. Quite a good contest going on above me.

If the west coast ridge flattens out in August, look out ... extreme heat has developed over the Pacific northwest region, highs today were near 110 degrees in eastern WA and OR and some parts of southern ID. These are near-record values. It is about 97 F at my house and I live above 4,000' halfway up a mountain range, valley readings in southern BC are near 100 F. This is about the fifth day of this heat wave with very little air movement, luckily the low humidity means it cools off significantly after sunset. We get to lows of 65-68 F which is somewhat refreshing. Lower elevations south of the border stay in the mid 70s in their heat waves. Basically this is desert southwest heat that decided this might be a good place to set up for a while.

Just a heads up to the half dozen NYC forum members who participate in the temperature forecast contest (main forum), deadline fast approaching.

< < < < < ........ <<<< ---- ====== Annual Scoring (Jan-July) 2020 ====== ---- >>>> .......> > > > > Numbers in red denote highest cumulative scores for each of nine locations. Numbers in bold black type denote highest subtotals for regions. FORECASTER ______________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__ c/e __DEN_PHX_SEA__west ___ TOTAL RodneyS ___________________500_ 472_526 __1498 __467 _413_456__1336 __2834 __550_460_414_ 1424 ____4258 Don Sutherland.1 ___________432 _460_472 __1364 __433 _448_474 __1355 __2719 __376_446_432_ 1254 ____3973 RJay ______________________ 484 _ 491_433 __1408 __365 _420 _451 __1236 __2644 __460_435_430_ 1325 ____3969 hudsonvalley21 ____________399 _422 _487 __1308 __344 _410 _455 __1209 __2517 __423_528_433_ 1384 ____3901 ___ Consensus _____________386 _388 _489 __1263__340 _397_476 __1213 __2476 __418_512_438_ 1368 ____ 3844 wxallannj __________________410 _442 _477 __1329 __320 _401 _474 __1195 __2524 __406_470_432_ 1308 ____3832 BKViking ___________________354 _368 _445 __1167__387 _338 _450__1175 __2342 __423_512_467_ 1402 ____ 3744 Brian5671 _________________ 414 _424 _446 __1284 __271 _405_455__1131 __2415 __288_463_468_ 1319 ____ 3734 Tom _______________________ 378 _380 _448 __1206__274 _448 _431__1153 __2359 __397_518_435_ 1350 ____3709 Scotty Lightning ____________268 _252 _360 __ 880 __282 _387_506__1175 __2055 __348_525_502_ 1375 ____ 3430 wxdude64 __________________303 _295 _346 __ 944__282 _358 _480__1120 __2064 __ 412_467_334_ 1213 ____3277 Roger Smith ________________298 _301 _394 __ 993__238 _439_372__1049 __2042 __ 370_292_290__952 ____ 2994 ___ Normal _________________202 _202 _296 __ 700 __224 _366 _404__ 994 __1694 __300_442_ 462_ 1204 ____2898 JakkelWx _ (5/7) ____________220 _221 _336 __ 777 __250 _241 _376 __877 __1654 __296 _312 _238__846 ____2500 yoda _ (2/7) _________________64 __ 43 __ 16 __ 123 __ 18_118 _125 __ 261 ___ 384 __ 71 _161_ 70 __ 302 _____ 686 rclab _ (1/7) _________________05 __ 00 __ 00 __ 005 __ 00 _ 11 _ 24 __ 035 ____ 040 __ 56 _ 88 _ 66 __ 210 _____ 250 dwave _ (1/7) _______________ 72 __ 75 __ 48 __ 195 __ 12 _ 25 _ 10 __ 047 ____ 242 __ 16 _ 34 _ 00 __ 050 _____ 292 Maxim _ (1/7) _______________00 __ 00 __ 00 __ 000 __ 00 _ 20 _ 46 __ 066 ____ 066 __ 32 _ 50 _ 34 __ 116 _____ 182 Rhino16 _ (1/7) ______________00 __ 05 __ 20 __ 025 __ 00 _ 13 _ 30 __ 043 ____ 068 __ 04 _ 52 _ 54 __ 110 _____ 178 ============================================================================== Extreme forecast standings January to July 49 of 63 forecasts so far have qualified for an extreme forecast award for the warmest forecast(s), 34 for warmest and 15 for coldest. FORECASTER ____ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _ Apr _ May _ Jun _ Jul ___ Standings to date Brian 5671 _______ 4-0 __ 1-0 __ 3-1 __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ ---- __ 1-1 ___11 -2 RodneyS _________ 2-0 __ 3-0 __ 0-1 __ ---- __ 2-0 __ 2-0 __ 0-1 ____9 - 2 DonSutherland1___0-0 __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ ---- __ 2-0 __ 2-0 ___ 7 - 0 RJay _____________ ----- __ ----- __ 3-0 __ ---- __ ----- __ 1-0 __ 3-0 ___ 7 - 0 Roger Smith ______ ---- __ ---- __ 1-0 __ 4-2 __ 1-0 __ ----- __ ---- ____ 6 - 2 Scotty Lightning __ 2-0 __ 0-0 __ ---- __ 1-0 __----- __ ----- __ 1-0 ___ 4 - 0 Normal ___________1-0 __ 0-1 __ ---- __ 1-0 __ ---- __ 2-0 __ ---- ____ 4 - 1 Tom _____________ 1-0 __ 0-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ 1-0 __ ----- __ ---- ____ 2 - 0 RClab ____________ 2-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ----- __ ----- __ ---- ____ 2 - 0 hudsonvalley21 ___ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ----- __ 1-0 ____ 1-0 yoda _____________ 0-0 __ 1-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ----- __ ---- ____ 1 - 0 wxdude64 ________ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ 1-0 __ ---- __ ----- __ ---- ____ 1 - 0 Jakkelwx _________ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ 1-0 __ ---- __ ---- ____ 1 - 0 wxallannj _________ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ 1-1 __ ---- ____ 1 - 1 ================================================================================ BEST SCORES -- Totals for January to July Forecasters are listed in same order as annual points standings. Ties are possible which is why some locations have more than two best scores, also, if Normal or consensus achieve a top score, the actual forecaster with high score gets an award also. FORECASTER ______________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA__west___Months RodneyS ___________________ 2 ___ 1 ___ 2 ____ 2 ____ 2 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 2 ____ 2 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 2 _____ 3 _ Jan, Feb, May DonSutherland.1 ____________0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 3 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 _____ 2 _ Mar, Apr RJay _______________________ 2 ___ 2 ___ 0 ____ 3 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____ 2 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 _____ 2 _ Jun, Jul hudsonvalley21 _____________0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 ___ Consensus ______________0 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 wxallannj ___________________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 _____ 0 BKViking ___________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 _____ 0 Brian5671 __________________ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 0 _____ 0 Tom ________________________0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 Scotty Lightning ____________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 2 ___ 2 ___ 1 _____ 0 wxdude64 __________________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 Roger Smith ________________ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 _____ Normal _______________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 _____ 1 ___ Apr Jakkelwx ___________________0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 RClab _______________________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 _____ 0