Roger Smith

That front looks like it will form a nearly continuous line squall for the upper Midwest so while some tornadic cells likely, there would be widespread damaging gusts in the 70-90 mph range. Currently at Garden City in western KS, winds are WSW 40G64 and temp dew point is 61/2 while at Wichita in eastern KS it's S 35G52 and 75/59. It's basically an April like severe weather pattern without much solar heating.

I mentioned in the December thread that Thursday could break the 1971 record of 63F at NYC. Looks like being 75-80 in the central states on Wednesday so that air mass streaming across the northeast will likely remain near 70 F. Will say 71 F for the new record there. Not sure what the records might be at other NYC regional sites but could be like 68F at JFK, 72F at LGA and 73F at EWR (on Thursday). According to my NYC data base there have been two record highs set so far in 2021 (March 26, 82F and Dec 11, 66F). There have been five record high minima (two ties) -- two in March, two in June and one in August. And there have been two record low maxima in late May (one a tie). There have been no new record low minima (these are very infrequent in recent years due to the combined effects of urban heat island and climate change). December has more warm months in recent decades than most months. I think the monthly record at NYC has been broken five times since 1982. There have been some impressive warm spells in such years as 1982, 1984, 1990, 2013, 2015 and those have bagged about half the daily records. Before the modern era, 1881, 1889, 1891, 1895, 1923 and 1957 were notable for warm spells in December. December seems to be in transition from being a genuine winter month to being the tail end of autumn, and this tendency shows up far and wide not just around the northeastern states. Even as far afield as the UK, mild Decembers are becoming more frequent although they did have a notably cold one in 2010 that came within 0.1 C of breaking the 1890 record there. But except for that, December averages have been rising rather steadily in the UK, and also in parts of Canada. The same thing is happening at the other end of winter, late February and early March have seen many recent record highs compared to most other parts of the calendar year. May and October on the other hand have a relatively low count of recent record highs.

With the generally dry pattern 2021 is making slow progress up the table and remains in 10th place ... here's an update of what amounts are needed to reach 9th, 8th and the rest probably out of reach now. Rank __ YEAR ___ TOTAL PRECIP _ 01 ____ 1983 ____ 80.56" _ 02 ____ 2011 ____ 72.81" _ 03 ____ 1972 ____ 67.03" _ 04 ____ 2018 ____ 65.55" _ 05 ____ 1989 ____ 65.11" _ 06 ____ 2007 ____ 61.67" (2021 needs 2.66"to tie) _ 07 ____ 1975 ____ 61.21" (2021 needs 2.20" to tie) _ 08 ____ 1990 ____ 60.92" (2021 needs 1.91" to tie) _ 09 ____ 2006 ____ 59.89" (2021 needs 0.88" to tie) _ 10 ____ 2021 ____ 59.01" (.17" on Dec 11) Looking at current GFS output to the 28th, I could see maybe 1.0 to 1.5 inches of precip so would say there's a good chance of overtaking 9th place 2006 and maybe challenging 7th and 8th place 1975, 1990 near the end. Also looks to me like a record daily high may be set on Thursday 16th, 63F (1971) appears to be the current record (some warmer days in 2015 earlier in the week), would say 68-72 F a good bet. There's a weak record for the 19th (only 58F, the lowest such value in December) that on current guidance won't be broken but if the pattern slows down or moves north it could be. Records for the 17th and 18th are 62F and 63F. After the 20th (60F) there's another spell with records closer to 70F again. These daily records can be seen in my thread over in the climate change forum, pack a lunch. Yesterday (Sat 11th) set a daily record of 66 F (the former record was 64 F from 1879).

As of now, 2021 ranks tied second lowest with three other years in the ratio of hurricanes to named storms (7 of 21, 0.333) in this century, and is tied 6th lowest all time with six other years (since 1850). Only these years had lower (or equal) ratios of hurricanes to named storms. YEAR ___ named __ H _ M ____ Ratio 1895 _____ 6 ______ 2 __ 0 ____ 0.333 1956 ____ 12 ______ 4 __ 1 ____ 0.333 1982 _____ 6 ______ 2 __ 1 ____ 0.333 2002 ____ 12 ______ 4 __ 2 ____ 0.333 2009 _____ 9 ______ 3 __ 2 ____ 0.333 2019 ____ 18 ______ 6 __ 3 ____ 0.333 2021 ____ 21 ______ 7 __ 4 ____ 0.333 1931 ____ 13 ______ 3 __ 1 ____ 0.231 1905 _____ 5 ______ 1 __ 1 ____ 0.200 2013 ____ 14 ______ 2 __ 0 ____ 0.143 1907 _____ 5 ______ 0 __ 0 ____ 0.000 1914 _____ 1 _______ 0 __ 0 ____ 0.000 ------------------------------------------------- One more tropical storm not reaching hurricane status would move 2021 to sixth place alone at 0.318. Of the thirteen years with 17 or more named storms, only 2019 joined this list, and the average ratio of hurricanes to named storms in those ten seasons is 0.506 (2020, 14 of 30; 2005, 15 of 28; 1933, 11 of 20; 2010, 12 of 19; 1887 and 1995, 11 of 19; 2012 10 of 19; 2011, 7 of 19; 1969, 12 of 18; 2017, 10 of 17 and 1936, 7 of 17). On the other hand, 2021 joins this list of seasons where more than half the hurricanes became majors: 100% _ 1850 (7 of 7)*, 1917, 1930 (2 of 2), 1905 (1 of 1) 80% _ 1894, 1915 (4 of 5) 75% _ 1926 (6 of 8) ... 1941 (3 of 4) 71.4% _ 1964 (5 of 7) 66.7% _ 1996, 2004 (6 of 9) ... 1909, 1932, 1948 (4 of 6) ... 1873, 1883, 1900, 1957, 2009 (2 of 3) 62.5% _ 1961, 1999, 2008 (5 of 8) 60% _ 2017 (6 of 10) ... 1935, 1988 (3 of 5) 57.1% _ 2012, 2016, 2021 (4 of 7) 54.4% _ 1933, 1950 (6 of 11) 50% _ numerous examples incl 2019 (3 of 6), 2020 (7 of 14) It could be noted then that 2021 produced four major hurricanes out of a smaller number of hurricanes than any years except 1894 (5), 1909 (6), 1915 (5), 1932 (6), 1948 (6). ____________ * 1850 (7 of 7) is considered less reliable as both a total and a ratio than the other data.

Updated anomalies and projections ... ________________________________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH __ DEN _PHX _SEA _ 11th _________ ( 10d anom ) __________ +2.8 _+1.4 _+1.0 __+4.1 _+5.7_+12.2__+9.8 _+7.5 _+0.2 _ 21st _________ ( 20d anom ) __________+4.7 _+4.7 _+4.0__+7.5 _+6.3_+10.7__+8.8 _+4.0 _-1.2 _ 11th _________ ( p20d anom ) _________+8.0 _+7.0 _+6.0 __+6.0_+8.0_+10.0__+5.5 _+4.5_-1.5 _ 11th _________ ( p27d anom ) _________ +5.0 _+4.0 _+3.0 __+3.5_+5.0_+7.0 __+2.5 _+3.0 _-1.5 _ 21st _________ ( 31d anom ) __________ +2.5 _+2.5 _+2.0 __+5.0 _+5.0_+8.0__+5.0 _+3.5 _-3.0 _ Final anomalies _____________________ +5.9 _+4.7 _+3.5 __+7.5 _+8.7_+12.4_+7.2 _+3.4 _-4.0 Snowfall (no fall) contest update ______ DCA _NYC _BOS _ ORD_DTW_BUF __DEN _SEA_BTV ___ (Snowfall to Dec 31) _______________ 0.0 _ 0.2 _ 0.4 ____ 1.9 _10.4 _10.7 ____ 4.8 _ 9.4 _15.0 ___________________ 11th _ After a rather average start in the east, mild central and west, a very mild interval now looms and will drive anomalies well up as they already are in Houston and Denver. Following that, rather cold is the current indication for the Christmas holiday period, especially in the northern tier, so I have reduced the large positive anomalies accordingly but with little time left at that point the month seems likely to end well above normal everywhere but the Pac NW. 21st _ The warmest period has come and gone in the east and anomalies will slowly sink back to less extreme positive outcomes. Central regions will stay in a subdued warmer regime and IAH in particular may not lose much of its current large anomaly (+12). DEN could have a few much colder days in the mix, PHX will stay warm to near end of month, and SEA is going into a deep freeze around Christmas for almost a week. The projections above will be used to generate preliminary scoring. Meanwhile, have updated the snowfall reports for the few locations that have seen any snow so far. DEN only at 0.3" and BOS 0.4", nothing measurable yet at DCA, NYC or ORD. SEA about to start its account with snow in the forecast. Jan 1st _ Posting final anomalies, will probably take my time with the scoring as it's New Years and I may not feel like pushing myself ... seems to have stayed much milder in the east, pushing those anomalies above our forecasts by quite a margin. The scoring will need to be converted to the max 60 model for quite a few locations, I believe. Anomalies posted are either confirmed (if bold) or close estimates from 31st climate data and 1st-30th CF6. Snowfalls also updated through midnight Dec 31st. All locations now show final anomalies and scoring is complete.

Yesterday, 2021 became a top ten wettest year for NYC ... this is part of a longer list I posted on Friday in this thread. I have copied only the years overtaken since Nov 1st, the full list includes all those passed in October. NYC passed 2003 and then 1903 on Dec 6th to reach 10th place as shown ... Rank __ YEAR ___ TOTAL PRECIP _ 01 ____ 1983 ____ 80.56" _ 02 ____ 2011 ____ 72.81" _ 03 ____ 1972 ____ 67.03" _ 04 ____ 2018 ____ 65.55" _ 05 ____ 1989 ____ 65.11" _ 06 ____ 2007 ____ 61.67" (needs 2.87"to tie) _ 07 ____ 1975 ____ 61.21" (needs 2.41" to tie) _ 08 ____ 1990 ____ 60.92" (needs 2.12" to tie) _ 09 ____ 2006 ____ 59.89" (needs 1.09" to tie) _ 10 ____ 2021 ____ 58.80" (.42" on Dec 6) _ 11 ____ 1903 ____ 58.52" (passed Dec 6 at .14") _ 12 ____ 2003 ____ 58.42" (passed Dec 6 at .04") _ 13 ____ 1889 ____ 58.18" (passed Nov 22) _ 14 ____ 1913 ____ 58.00" (passed Nov 13) _ 15 ____ 1973 ____ 57.32" (passed Nov 12)

The increase in December temperatures in the past forty years has produced a top ten that is almost all from the recent past, only 1891 in 9th place came before 1982. How does that compare to the other eleven months? This is the number of top ten months that have occurred since 1980 (including that year), so the number before 1980 is whatever needs to be added to get 10. JAN 4 _______ JUL 6 FEB 9 _______ AUG 8* MAR 5 ______ SEP 4* APR 7* ______ OCT 5* MAY 4 _______ NOV 6 JUN 4 _______ DEC 9 ______________________________________________ _ * April had a tie for 10th (1945, 1994) so the count is 7 recent and 4 older, rather than 7 and 3. _ * Aug had a three-way tie for 9th, of which one was recent, so the count is 8 recent, 3 older. _ * Sept had a tie for 10th also, but both years were recent, so the count is 4 recent and 7 older. _ * Oct had a tie for 10th (1946, 1954) so the count is 5 recent and 6 older. _______________________________________________ Since 1980 to 2021 is 42 years out of the 153 total years the number of top ten months that should be expected at random for each month would be close to 3 (2.7). So all twelve months have seen more than random expectation but the four at 4 and the two at 5 are not running way ahead of the pace. Given that there are four extra years due to the ties, the total number of top ten months is 124 of which 71 are in the recent past (1980 to present) which compares to a random expectation of 33. Another cluster of 15 occur around 1941 to 1955, the years between 1956 and 1979 seem to occur about as often as one might expect at random, and before 1945 a top ten finish is relatively rare, there are only 19 in total. January 1932, March 1945 and June 1943 remain the only first place months from before the modern era. If the urban heat island was factored in, Sept 1881 would probably move up from third to first as well. January, May and September seem to be the months least skewed towards modern warmth in their top ten lists.

I could add that spring blooming rhododendron and cherry blossom have been spotted in March-like state in the Vancouver BC area in the past week during very mild spell there. Pattern has shifted to much colder now, with the storm track now roughly OR-s ID-WY instead of at 55 N in western Canada. We had 3" snow earlier today and more normal temps for here, 28 F. Coast had rain-snow mix. Probably won't lead to much change downstream for a while though, if anything could warm things up as source of warm sectors further south now.

If there are no further tropical storms this month, the contest will end on December 31st and the winner at this point would be wxdude64 (98.5 points) -- the prediction of 19/7/4 hit both the hurricanes and majors right on. Those who had the right number of named storms (21) included second place JKeithLee, Newman and hudsonvalley21 while the only other person to guess seven hurricanes was Iceresistance. Nobody in the contest predicted fewer hurricanes than what we ended up getting in 2021. About half the field selected four majors. See the table posted Sep 24 (and edited since then) for the full standings. If there should happen to be one more tropical storm and no further hurricanes, then wxdude64 would share the win with IntenseWind002. Will post again on January 1st or 2nd (sobriety having been restored) with a confirmation of this post or any necessary changes. Thanks for playing.

Apologies if this subject already covered (if so would appreciate a link) or if you think it should go into its own thread, but despite the dry November (1.12" 12th driest on record) at NYC, the year still passed three in total precip and now sits in 12th place. It will be interesting to see how many more years 2021 can pass before time runs out. The rest of the top 32 which would include the three years passed in the last thirty days and 17 others passed in the second half of October (of which 12 were passed in the October 26th 3.30" rainstorm after one on Oct 16th) are as follows (source, a data set that Don Sutherland sent me from which I derived annual and monthly totals, thanks again to Don for that, see climate change forum for a recent post in a thread I started there which catalogues much much more NYC and Toronto historical data with a link to a forum (net-weather UK) which has larger download capacity for the supporting excel files) ... Rank __ YEAR ___ TOTAL PRECIP _ 01 ____ 1983 ____ 80.56" _ 02 ____ 2011 ____ 72.81" _ 03 ____ 1972 ____ 67.03" _ 04 ____ 2018 ____ 65.55" _ 05 ____ 1989 ____ 65.11" _ 06 ____ 2007 ____ 61.67" (needs 3.29"to tie) _ 07 ____ 1975 ____ 61.21" (needs 2.83" to tie) _ 08 ____ 1990 ____ 60.92" (needs 2.64" to tie) _ 09 ____ 2006 ____ 59.89" (needs 1.51" to tie) _ 10 ____ 1903 ____ 58.52" (needs .14" to tie) _ 11 ____ 2003 ____ 58.42" (needs .04" to tie) _ 12 ____ 2021 ____ 58.38" (to Dec 2) _ 13 ____ 1889 ____ 58.18" (passed Nov 22) _ 14 ____ 1913 ____ 58.00" (passed Nov 13) _ 15 ____ 1973 ____ 57.32" (passed Nov 12) _ 16 ____ 1984 ____ 57.03" (passed Oct 30) _ 17 ____ 1971 ____ 56.77" (passed Oct 30) _ 18 ____ 1996 ____ 56.19" (passed Oct 29 at .01") _ 19 ____ 1927 ____ 56.06" (passed Oct 27 at .02") _ 20 ____ 2005 ____ 55.97" (passed Oct 26 at 3.23") _ 21 ____ 1975 _____ 54.73" (passed Oct 26 at 1.99") _ 22 ____ 2014 ____ 53.79" (passed Oct 26 at 1.05") _ 23 ____ 2009 ____ 53.62" (passed Oct 26 at .88") _ 24 ____ 2008 ____ 53.61" (passed Oct 26 at .87") _ 25 ____ 1933 ____ 53.53" (passed Oct 26 at .79") _ 26 ____ 1888 ____ 53.32" (passed Oct 26 at .58") _ 27 ____ 1919 ____ 53.29" (passed Oct 26 at .55") _ 28 ____ 1920 ____ 53.20" (passed Oct 26 at .46") _ 29 ____ 2019 ____ 53.19" (passed Oct 26 at .45") _ 30 ____ 1937 ____ 52.97" (passed Oct 26 at .23") _ 31 ____ 1902 ____ 52.77" (passed Oct 26 at .03") _ 32 ____ 1884 ____ 52.25" (passed Oct 16) _____________________________________________________________ Note that the large majority of these wet years are recent, only eleven were before 1950 including all four of 25th to 28th place as well as 30th to 32nd, in a period of record dating back to 1869. Another ten were in the period 1971-2000 and eleven more 2001-2021. At the end of September 2021 was ranked 33rd wettest so it passed 18 years in October to become 15th wettest after October. This year had 52.74" when the Oct 26 rainstorm began and 56.04" when it ended, and it moved from 31st to 19th place during that day. It took down four more during additional rainfalls Oct 27th to 31st. It passed three more in November despite the low rainfall total which included a dry spell Nov 1-10. Looks like it could pass four or five more years and finish around 6th to 8th. The top five appear fairly safe.

Final Report on the Four Seasons Contest 2020-2021 ___ Four Seasons contest updated standings ___ FORECASTER ____ SCORE WINTER 20-21 ___ PTS __ SPRING 21 _ PTS __ SUMMER 21 _PTS ___ AUTUMN 21 _PTS ___ TOTAL DonSutherland1 _____ 730 + 1163 = 1893 _____ 10 _______1806 _____ 6 ______ 1672 ____ 4 _______ 1867 __ 7 ________ 27 RodneyS _____________ 616 + 1229 = 1845 ______ 7 _______ 1528 _____1 _______1804 ____ 7 _______ 1846 ___ 6 _______ 21 Tom _________________ 668 + 1033 = 1701 ______ 4 _______ 1841 ____ 10 ______ 1625 ____ 1 _______ 1769 ___ 5 _______ 20 wxallannj _____________668 + 1006 = 1674 ______3 _______ 1780 _____ 5 _______1812 ____10 _______ 1605 ___ 1 _______ 19 BKViking _____________ 668 + 1094 = 1762 ______5 _______ 1768 _____4 ______ 1734 ____ 6 _______ 1703 ___ 4 _______ 19 ___ Consensus _______ 689 + 1088 = 1777 _____ 6 _______ 1774 _____ 4 _______ 1670 ____ 3 _______ 1714 ___ 4 _______ 17 wxdude64 ___________ 500 + 1075 = 1575 ______ 1 ________ 1835 _____7_______1676 ____ 5 _______ 1395 ___ 1 ________ 14 hudsonvalley21 ______ 716 + 1047 = 1763 ______ 6 _______ 1760 _____ 3 ______ 1658 ____ 3 _______ 1634 ___ 2 _______ 14 RJay _________________ 686 + 864 = 1550 _______ 1 _______ 1634 _____ 1 _______1555 ____ 1 _______ 1946 ___10 _______ 13 ___ Normal ___________ 524 + 950 = 1474 ________1 ________1638 ______1 _______1698 ____ 5 _______ 1362 ___ 1 _______ 8 Roger Smith __________580 + 959 = 1539 ________ 1 _______ 1300 ______1 _______1650 ____ 2 _______ 1684 ___ 3 _______ 7 Scotty Lightning _____ 586 + 1020 = 1606 _______2 _______ 1684 _____ 1 _______ 1599 ____ 1 _______ 1374 ___ 1 _______ 5 so_whats_happening _ dnp + 928 = 928__(2/3)__ 1 _______ 1733 _____ 2 _______1593 ____ 1 _______ 1549 ___ 1 _______ 5 Deformation Zone ____ (not entered) _____________________ (not entered) ______1052 (2/3) 1 _______ 1601 ___ 1 _______ 2 ___________________________________________________________ Winter scores are total of Dec 2020 and (Jan+Feb) 2021. Points _ 10 for high score, 7 for second, 6 for third, etc, and 1 point for all who enter at least 2/3. (scores and points for consensus and Normal do not alter progressions of scores for forecasters). ______________________________________________________________ Congrats to DonSutherland 1 for winning the four seasons award in this contest year. RJay is our autumn champion.

I have edited in the various monthly and seasonal values for Nov 2021 and autumn 2021. The season was quite warm for Toronto ranking close to 8th in both raw and adjusted data, the month of November was closer to normal than either September or October at both locations. In fact Nov 2021 was a little below the long-term average when adjusted for urban heat island at NYC although still somewhat above for Toronto. After rather wet months Sept and Oct, Nov was relatively dry. There was about 10 cm of snow towards the end of the month in Toronto and traces of snow in NYC which is not far from average in both cases. Since there will be considerable data to be added for the year 2021, I will hold off on updating the excel files for downloads until that can be added in, so the next time new downloads will be available will be early January 2022. Check back then for a brief summary of 2021 trends and (the link to) those updated files (which will be available in the Net-weather equivalent thread).

Table of forecasts for December 2021 _FORECASTER __________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA RJay ___________________________+2.5 _ +2.5 _ +2.5 __ +3.0 _ +2.0 _ +1.5 __ +4.5 _ +3.5 __ 0.0 RodneyS _______________________ +2.1 _ +1.6 _ +1.3 __ +3.2 _ +3.7 _ +4.7 __ +5.6 _ +4.1 _ +0.4 wxallannj ______________________ +2.0 _ +1.7 _ +1.0 __ +0.7 _ +2.6 _ +2.8 __ +1.7 _ +1.8 _ -0.9 DonSutherland 1 _______________ +1.7 _ +1.5 _ +1.1 __ +3.0 _ +2.4 _ +3.5 __ +4.0 _ +3.0 _ -0.5 Deformation Zone ______________ +1.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.0 __ +1.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.5 __ +3.0 _ +3.0 _ -0.5 so_whats_happening ___________ +1.5 _ +1.1 __ 0.0 ___ +1.0 _ +1.2 _ +1.7 __ +2.0 _ +1.5 _ -0.4 ___ Consensus __________________ +1.4 _ +1.4 _ +1.0 __ +1.1 _ +1.7 _ +2.4 __ +2.7 _ +2.8 _ -0.3 BKViking _______________________ +1.2 _ +1.3 _ +1.0 __ +1.2 _ +1.6 _ +1.8 __ +2.5 _ +2.8 _ -0.5 Tom ____________________________ +1.1 _ +1.2 _ +1.0 __ +1.2 _ +0.9 _ +1.1 __ +1.5 _ +1.8 _ -0.3 Scotty Lightning _______________ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 __ +0.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 __ +0.5 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 hudsonvalley21 ________________ +0.7 _ +1.9 _ +0.7 __ +2.1 _ +1.8 _ +3.0 __ +3.0 _ +2.7 _ +0.2 ___ Normal _____________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 Roger Smith ___________________ -1.0 __ -1.2 _ -0.8 __ -1.7 __ 0.0 __ +2.5 __ +2.5 _ +4.7 _ -1.5 wxdude64 _____________________ -1.3 __ -1.3 _ -0.9 __ -1.3 _ +1.6 __ +2.3 __ +2.8 _ +2.6 _ -0.2 ============================================================ Snowfall Forecast Contest Winter 2021-22 __________________________________ DCA __NYC __BOS ___ ORD __DTW __BUF __ DEN __SEA __BTV wxdude64 _______________________20.0 __ 38.0 __ 54.0 __ 52.0 __ 47.0 __104.0__ 58.0 __13.0 __105.0 Tom ______________________________17.7 __ 36.9 __ 46.1 __ 48.7 __ 47.8 __ 94.4 __ 65.2 __ 8.1 __102.2 Roger Smith ______________________17.5 __ 32.5 __ 50.7 __ 44.8 __ 49.5 __107.2 __ 52.0 __10.5__ 82.2 so_whats_happening _____________16.0 __ 34.0 __ 62.0 __ 41.0 __ 45.0 __ 74.0 __ 36.0 __11.0 __ 91.0 RodneyS ________________________ 12.8 __ 25.0 __ 45.0 __ 54.0 __ 42.0 __ 91.0 __ 48.0 __12.0 __ 75.0 wxallannj ________________________12.0 __ 28.0 __ 36.0 __ 38.0 __ 36.0 __ 92.0 __ 41.0 __11.0 __ 95.0 hudsonvalley21 __________________11.6 __ 30.3 __ 33.8 __ 32.7 __ 32.4 __ 94.0 __ 45.0 __10.2 __108.8 Scotty Lightning _________________10.0 __ 23.0 __ 38.0 __ 44.0 __ 38.0 __106.0 __ 49.0 __ 7.0 __129.0 DonSutherland 1 __________________9.4 __ 27.3 __ 44.9 __ 35.1 __ 28.3 __ 84.0 __ 43.4 __ 9.5 __ 71.5 BKViking _________________________ 8.0 __ 28.0 __ 42.0 __ 44.0 __ 25.0 __ 88.0 __ 55.0 __22.0__ 85.0 Deformation Zone ________________ 8.0 __ 18.0 __ 36.0 __ 38.0 __ 44.0 __ 70.0 __ 24.0 __ 4.0 __ 86.0 RJay _____________________________ 5.0 __ 20.0 __ 42.0 __ 40.0 __ 34.0 __ 90.0 __ 50.0 __13.0 __100.0 mean of forecasts _______________12.3 __ 28.4 __ 44.2 ___ 42.7 __ 39.1 __ 91.2 __ 47.2 __10.9 __ 94.2 ====================================

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA -1.0 -1.2 -0.8 -1.7 0.0 2.5 2.5 4.7 -1.5 DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV 17.5 32.5 50.7 44.8 49.5 107.2 52.0 10.5 82.2

Just a heads up to those who enjoy snowfall forecast contests ... Northeast US snow contest enters its 22nd year and the deadline there is also end of today, the link is here: http://www.newx-forecasts.com/#RULES The site runs a winter-snowfall contest and for any storms that appear, storm forecast contests. Probably a large number of the regulars there are members of American Weather Forum with (in some cases) different usernames. The region covered runs from Maine to North Carolina. Also please note deadline approaching for the temperature forecast contest here (general weather forum) which contains a winter snowfall forecast segment.

Just a heads up to those who enjoy snowfall forecast contests ... Northeast US snow contest enters its 22nd year and the deadline there is also end of today, the link is here: http://www.newx-forecasts.com/#RULES The site runs a winter-snowfall contest and for any storms that appear, storm forecast contests. Probably a large number of the regulars there are members of American Weather Forum with (in some cases) different usernames. The region covered runs from Maine to North Carolina.

<<<< ============ - - - - Annual Scoring for 2021 (Jan-Nov) - - - - ============ >>>> High scores for nine locations shown in red, high scores for regions in bold. Change in rank is shown after forecaster name. No entry there means same position as last month. Consensus stayed in the gap between 4th and 5th place among forecasters. Normal remained in the gap between 10th and 11th (Roger Smith the only full-time forecast contest entrant behind Normal although most of the deficit erased in November, differential down from 202 to 55 -- my scores were so bad in the first half of this contest year that winning three months since June still leaves me stuck in last place). Any changes shown for forecasters do not include forecasters moving past consensus or normal, or vice versa. As it happens, only two ranks changed for the forecasters in November (subject to final adjustments) as wxdude64 moved past so_whats_happening. RodneyS in second moved from 171 back to 107 behind leader DonSutherland1. December will determine who takes the top spot with third place BKViking 215 points behind, which is a tall order with those two ahead of him, but not impossible. FORECASTER _________________DCA_NYC_BOS__east _ ORD_ATL_IAH__cent __c/e ___ DEN_PHX_SEA__west___TOTALS DonSutherland1 ______________ 773 _826 _598 _ 2197 __708 _864 _780 _2352_ 4549__506 _713 _746 _1965___ 6514 RodneyS _____________________ 741 _798 _605 _ 2144 __ 599 _850 _712 _ 2161__4305 __596 _724 _782 _2102___ 6407 BKViking _____________________ 741 _814 _605 _ 2160 __ 571 _803 _728 _ 2102__4262 __605 _666 _766 _2037___ 6299 Tom __________________________800 _879 _645 _ 2324__545 _733 _760 _ 2038__4362 __547 _619 _740 _1906___ 6268 ___ Consensus (up 1) _________ 781 _828 _596 _ 2205 __562 _800 _730 _ 2092__4297 __576 _633 _740 _ 1949___ 6246 wxallannj _____________________ 727 _798 _559 _ 2084 __511 _766 _742 _ 2019__4103 __703 _619 _778 _2100 ___6203 hudsonvalley21 _______________750 _783 _610 _ 2143 __490 _772 _688 _ 1950__4093 __549 _668 _789_ 2006___ 6099 RJay _________________________ 745 _801 _636 _ 2182 __632 _775 _665 _ 2072 __4254 __568 _556 _621 _1745___ 5999 wxdude64 (up 1) _____________ 768 _741 _553 _ 2062 __482 _785 _738 _ 2005 __4067 __590 _640 _684 _1914___ 5981 so_whats_happening (down 1)_ 777_749 _457 _ 1983 __550 _822 _623 _ 1995 __3978 __520 _616 _679 _ 1815___ 5793 Scotty Lightning _____________ 705 _744 _528 _ 1977 __421 _678 _666 _ 1765 __3742 __570 _607 _758 _ 1935___ 5677 ___ Normal ___________________ 712 _680 _444 _ 1836__366 _764 _758 _ 1888__3724 __530 _644 _750 _1924___ 5648 Roger Smith __________________685 _638 _368 _ 1691 __550 _688 _774 _ 2012 __3703 __562 _584 _744 _1890___ 5593 Deformation Zone _ (5/11) ___ 313 _ 272 _254 __ 839 __252 _380 _340 __ 972__ 1811 __246 _260 _336 __842___2653 (for comparison prorated)^^ __689 _598 _559 _ 1846 __554 _836 _748 _ 2138 __3984 __ 541 _ 572 _738 _1851 __ 5835 _ this may not be exact because scoring in the five months DZ has entered may have been higher or lower than avg. Stormchaser Chuck (1/11) ____ 020 _ 024 _ 064 _ 108 __080 _034 _068 _ 182 ___ 290 ___000 _ 010 _ 042_ 052 ___ 342 Best scores for the locations and regions (note, for NOV, ATL not yet updated due to close scoring) FORECASTER ___________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ east __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ cent __ c/e ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA __ west ___ Totals DonSutherland1 __________ 2 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 2 ______4 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 4 ____ 4 _____ 0 ____ 3 ____ 1 _____ 0 _____ 1 __ Jan RodneyS _________________ 2 ____ 2 ____ 2 _____ 1 ______ 1 ____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 3 ____ 1 _____ 0 ____ 2 ____ 0 _____ 2 _____ 2 __Feb,Jul BKViking __________________ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 1 ____ 0 ____ 3 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 3 _____ 0 ____ 1 __ Apr Tom ______________________ 2 ____ 2 ____ 1 _____ 2 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 2 _____ 1 ____ 1 __ May ___ Consensus ____________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0_____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 0 ____ 0 __ wxallannj _________________ 0 ____ 2 ____ 1 _____ 0 ______ 1 ____ 1 ____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 4 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 3 _____ 0 __ hudsonvalley21 ___________ 0 ____ 0 ____0 _____ 1 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____0 _____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 3 _____ 1 _____ 0 __ RJay ______________________ 1 ____ 2 ____ 4 _____ 1 ______ 2 ____ 1 ____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 2 _____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 2 __Sep,Oct wxdude64 ________________ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 2 ______0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 2 _____ 1 __ Mar(t) so_whats_happening ______ 3 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 1 ____ 2 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 1 __ Mar (t) Scotty Lightning ___________ 2 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____0 ______ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ ___ Normal _________________2 ____ 1 ____ 2 _____ 1 ______ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ____ 3 ____ 1 _____ 1 _____ 1 __May,Jul Roger Smith ________________1 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 2 ____ 2 ____ 3 ____ 2 ____ 1 _____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 2 _____ 2 ____ 3__Jun,Aug,Nov Deformation Zone __________0 ____ 0 ____ 2 _____ 0 ______1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____0 _____ 0 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- EXTREME FORECAST STANDINGS High score must go to either the extreme warm or cold forecast, or second most extreme, for a station to qualify. So far this year, 74 locations out of 99 have qualified, 4 in Jan, 5 in Feb, 7 in March, 6 in April, 8 in May, June and July, 7 in August, 8 in September and October, and 5 in November. Of those, 41 were awarded to warmest forecasts, 33 to coldest. A loss in the standings represents a case where second most extreme forecast had the high score and the win for that month. Normal can only win along with a forecaster. There have been nine shared wins (one by four and one by three) accounting for the excess of total wins (excl Normal). FORECASTER _______ Jan __Feb __Mar _ Apr _ May _Jun _ Jul _ Aug _Sep _ Oct_ Nov ___ TOTAL to date Roger Smith _________ 2-1 __2-0 __ --- __1-0 __ 1-0 __2-0 __ --- _ 3-1 _3-0 _ 0-1 _ 1-0 __ 15-3 RodneyS ____________ ---- __--- __ ---- __--- __ 2-1 __1-0 __ 6-0 _ --- _1-0 _ 1-0 _ ---- __ 11-1 wxallannj ____________ ---- __--- __ --- __3-0 __ 2-0 __3-0 __ --- _ 1-0 _--- _ 1-0 _ ---- __ 10-0 DonSutherland1 _____ 2-0 __1-0 __ 2-0 __0-1 __ 2-0 __1-0 __ --- _ --- _1-0 _ 1-0 _ ---- __ 10-1 RJay _________________ --- __--- __ 2-0 __2-0 __ 1-0 __1-0 __ --- _ 1-0 _1-0 _ 1-0*_ --- ___9-0 ___ Normal ___________--- __ --- __ 2-0 __--- __ 1-0 __--- __ 5-0 _ 1-0 _--- _ 0-0 _ --- ___ 9-0 so_whats_happening _--- __1-0 __ 2-0 __--- __ --- __ 1-0 __ ---- _ --- _3-0 _ --- _ ---- __ 7-0 wxdude64 ___________ --- __1-0 __ 2-0 __--- __ --- __--- __ ---- _ 1-0 _ --- _ --- _ 1-0 ___ 5-0 Tom __________________--- __--- __ --- __--- __ 1-0 __1-0 __ ---- _ --- _--- _ 3-0 _ ---- ___ 5-0 Deformation Zone ___ ---- __--- __ --- __--- __ --- __--- __ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 1-1 _ ---- ___ 4-1 BKViking _____________ ---- __--- __ --- __--- __ 1-0 __1-0 __ 0-1 _ --- _ 1-0 _ --- _ 1-0 ___ 4-1 Scotty Lightning _____ ---- __--- __ ---- __--- __--- __1-1 __ 1-0 _ --- _ 1-0 _ --- _ ---- ___ 3-1 hudsonvalley21 ______ ---- __--- __ --- __--- __ --- __ ---__ ---- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 2-0 ___ 2-0 __________________________________ * RJay also had two other near-win efforts in October tied or very close to tied with others but late penalty interfered. These are called "no decision" outings in this contest. ** Note that for best forecast and extreme forecast awards, players in these current tables will be eligible after any first time forecasters are evaluated in November (seeing as one at least has entered -- meaning that if one of those new entrants wins then the field will be re-evaluated without that score involved).

Final scoring for November 2021 DEN and PHX scores have been boosted to "max 60" format as raw scores too low. The ^ symbol indicates scoring boosted from maximum progression (60, 55, 50 ... etc ... 10, 05, 00) for thirteen forecasts. Some of the lower scores for PHX stay on raw scores which are higher at present than the two tied 10 (18 raw score) and zero (10 raw score) levels of the progression. Consensus and Normal scores in line with boosted scores. FORECASTER __________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent_ c/e ___DEN_PHX_SEA__west____TOTALS __ Confirmed anoms ___-2.0 _-1.8 __ 0.0 __ __ __ -1.0 _-1.3 _-0.6 ____ ___ ____ +6.9_+5.0_ +1.4 Roger Smith ____________ 66 _ 72 _ 80 __ 218 __ 90 _ 96 _ 88 __ 274 __ 492 ___ 60^_ 45^_ 88 ___193 ____ 685 RodneyS ________________88 _ 66 _ 90 __ 244 __ 88 _ 94 _100__ 282 __ 526 ___ 30^_ 30^_ 84 ___144 ____ 670 wxdude64 ______________94 _ 96 _ 76 __ 266 __ 84 _100_ 94 __ 278 __ 544___ 10^_ 55^_ 60 ___125 ____ 669 RJay ____________________90 _ 94 _ 80 __ 264 __100_ 96 _ 48 __ 244 __ 508 ___ 35^_ 45^_ 72 ___152 ____ 660 Deformation Zone _______80 _ 54 _100 __234 __100_ 94 _ 88 __ 282 __ 516 ___ 20^_ 30^_ 72 __ 122 ____ 638 wxallannj _______________ 84 _ 88 _ 90 __ 262 __ 60 _ 96 _ 78 __ 234 __ 496 ___ 25^_ 50^_ 52 ___127 ____ 623 __ Consensus ___________ 66 _ 66 _ 90 __ 222 __ 88 _ 94 _ 78__ 260 __ 482 ___ 30^_ 30^_ 72 __ 132 ____ 614 BKViking ________________56 _ 56 _ 90 __ 202 __100_ 70 _ 62 __ 234 __ 436 ___ 50^_ 35^_ 92__ 177 ____ 613 Tom ____________________ 82 _ 82 _ 84 __ 248 __ 98 _ 84 _ 76 __ 258 __ 506 ___ 05^_ 18 _ 82 ___ 105 ____ 611 DonSutherland1 ________ 66 _ 68 _ 96 __ 230 __ 70 _ 76 _ 84 __ 230 __ 460 ___ 40^_ 30^_ 76 __ 146 ____ 606 hudsonvalley21 _________ 58 _ 52 _ 88 __ 198 __ 64 _ 54 _ 52 __ 170 __ 368 ___ 60^_ 60^_ 68__ 188 ____ 556 __ Normal _______________60 _ 64 _100 __ 224 __ 80 _ 74 _ 88 __ 242 __ 466 ___ 00 _ 00 _ 72 __ 072 ____ 538 so_whats_happening ____34 _ 34 _ 68 __ 136 __ 68 _ 90 _ 60 __ 218 __ 354 ___ 50^_ 18 _ 52 __ 120 ____ 474 Scotty Lightning ________ 30 _ 44 _ 80 __ 154 __ 60 _ 44 _ 58 __ 162 __ 316 ___ 20^_ 30^_ 82 __ 132 ____ 448 Stormchaser Chuck ____ 20 _ 24 _ 64 __ 108 __ 80 _ 34 _ 68 __ 182 __ 290 ___ 00 _ 10 _ 42 ___ 052 ____ 342 ----------------------------------------------- Extreme forecast report DCA _ wxdude64 wins with lowest forecast (-1.7). NYC _ wxdude64 wins with lowest forecast (-1.6). BOS _ Did not qualify as fifth coldest forecast had high score. ORD _ Did not qualify as tied fourth coldest forecasts had high scores. ATL _ Did not qualify as fifth coldest forecast had high score. IAH _ Did not qualify as fourth coldest forecast had high score. DEN _ Shared win (hudsonvalley21, Roger Smith, +2.4). PHX _ hudsonvalley21 (+2.5) wins with highest forecast. SEA _ BKViking (+1.0) wins with warmest forecast. summary _ 5 of 9 likely to qualify, 2 with coldest forecast, 3 with warmest.

Congrats to wxdude64 on winning this contest. He is also leading the hurricane forecast contest (in the tropical weather forum) and would remain in a tie for first if we happen to pick up one more tropical storm that does not become a hurricane. His prediction was 19/7/4 and the seasonal count is 21/7/4. That contest included 30 forum members from various regional forums, and the NHC and CSU forecasts were also scored.

This will be the final monthly contest for 2021 in what has proven to be a fairly close competition. I have added on the winter snowfall contest with the same stations in play as for the past few winters. Note carefully the substitutions for low-snow locations in the temperature contests. For the temperature forecasts, anomalies relative to 1991-2020 normals (F deg) for these nine locations: DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA and for the snowfall contest, six of those plus three more northern locations ... DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV deadlines for both contests 06z Dec 1st, some leeway will be allowed for the snowfall contest. Good luck !!

Further to the above, the mudslides that hit BC Highway 99 east of Pemberton have probably caused several casualties, eyewitnesses state that a second mudslide hit a group of people who were stopped by a previous slide, and swept away, fate unknown at this point as search and rescue have to go through the first slide to get to the second one (from either end of the route as there are multiple slides). Since I posted earlier, the storm has moved on with one last blast of strong winds doing considerable damage around Kelowna, BC. My location had some strong gusts around 0100h today but no local damage other than tarps not well enough secured being blown across a residential street.

So to follow up on this second weather disaster, things are actually quite serious in terms of property damage, so far a rather slight casualty toll. As some readers won't be very familiar with BC geography, I will describe what I'm hearing in terms of driving east out of Vancouver which got a lot of rain and some localized but not too severe flooding. As you get further into the Fraser valley it gets worse. The cities of Abbotsford and Chilliwack have scattered neighborhood evacuations due to stream overflows combined with mudslides. The main highway to the interior of BC east of Chilliwack BC is closed at Bridal Falls and if you live in Hope BC you can only go a few miles in any direction as all highways from there are blocked by floods and or mudslides somewhere in the Cascades. Along the north shore of the Fraser, another highway is also blocked in two places. About 30 vehicles were trapped between those two slides last night and the people were rescued by helicopter today. Nobody is known to have been swept away in either slide but from the news footage that looks like a week to two week clean up. Then going further into the mountains from Hope, the main route to Kamloops and Calgary is washed out by severe flooding, and the city of Merritt in the plateau area further northeast is fully evacuated with 3-5 feet of water in most of the town and no drinking water or sewage treatment. That's a community of about 8,000 people. Then on the southern route that goes east from Hope, that highway also washed out in places, and the town of Princeton has seen considerable flooding also from rivers running east from the Cascades. Reports of 8 to 12 inches of rain in total. The rain has moved on and a squall line is approaching my location (which is 250 miles east of Princeton). We have had a very mild day with southerly winds but from the radar it looks like a squall line approaching. Southern Alberta had the chinook today as well as Montana, temps into the low 60s and wind gusts to 70 mph. Looks like even stronger winds could develop as this low is quite intense now, heading inland across the Rockies. So a very expensive storm but lacking any significant death toll to match the summer heat wave casualties which are estimated to be in the 500-800 range in BC.

I live near the US-Canada border in south central BC about 150 miles north of Spokane and 50 miles west of the northwest tip of Idaho. We are at about 4000' elevation on the west side of the Columbia River in a ski resort town (Rossland BC). It is also 25 miles due south of YCG in terms of weather stations (and quite a bit higher, we have mountains to our northwest reaching 8000' in the south Monashee range which is just big hills compared to either the Cascades further west or the Selkirks and Rockies further east. Those all go well above 12,000' in places. This is a heavy snowfall zone most winters and we can have 3 to 6 feet of snow on the ground at times in Dec and Jan. But spring comes fairly early despite all that. And we hit 112 F here in the heat dome last June. Have lived in BC since 1995, mostly down at the coast in Vancouver area. Before that, lived in Ontario in various locations, most recently near Peterborough northeast of Toronto. So as an older person I have memories going back about as far as 1960 for Ontario winters. Despite all the talk about warming, some of those winters were quite tame as well. Others not so much.

Now looking like B.C. may have a second major weather disaster for the year, there has been widespread flooding and landslides in the past two days from the strong "atmospheric river" event still ongoing, will post more info when news reports are more informative, last night it was mostly "we are hearing ... but cannot get into" sorts of stories but basically it seems that multiple small tributaries of the Fraser River have overflowed in various residential areas of the Fraser valley (50 to 100 miles east of Vancouver is where the worst damage is likely to be located). Three major highways are closed by flood and mudslide damage, cutting off all access from the coast to the BC interior by the usual routes, road access through Whistler and Pemberton is still open at last reports. Or you could go through WA state as they are not getting that much rain south of about Bellingham. The border was just opened up the other day for Canadians who wish to drive into the U.S. on non-essential trips, but other than snowbirds heading south to their winter homes or campsites, very few are going yet as there are expensive testing protocols when (or if) we return. And watching the golf from Phoenix yesterday then looking out at the mess of slush on our street, I was thinking, why the heck would I return?

I posted earlier that I was expecting a reasonably active winter pattern to develop for the central and eastern US, probably a lot of variability but some hope for wintry scenarios at times. Now I'm noticing a distinct resemblance to late autumn of 1981 with these very severe rainstorms we are getting here (in BC) -- Nov 1981 had similar episodes. The late autumn of 2006 was very stormy also but not this wet. So if that gives a nod to 1981-82 as one possible analogue then of course it was in that second tier of good winters below the really outstanding ones; not much happened (in the east) during December as I recall since I was living there in 1981, and there was a large-scale pattern change in the new year, severe cold at times, and one or two coastal storms about which I remember very little, the snow largely missed Ontario where I was situated and while it was very cold at times, the ground was almost bare outside the snow belt. Feb 1982 was dry and cold inland too. There was a resumption of severe winter weather in April for about a week. About the severe rainfall event, it has washed out two or three major highways and caused urban mudslides. In Nov 1981 there was a bad situation north of Vancouver on the highway to Whistler where a mountain creek swept away a bridge and several vehicles, since then they redesigned all the bridges so that debris can't block the creeks as happened then. A similar disaster in Oct 2003 a bit further north but that was a heavy rain from a Pacific typhoon remnant and I don't remember the rest of the autumn being very stormy. There is some very mild air getting in from the Pacific now and up to quite a high elevation melting a snowpack that just formed, so the flooding with the 6-8" rainfalls is intensified. Luckily there was a fairly good forecast of this and the highways people closed one highway just before it got over-run by a huge flood -- this is ongoing and it may end up totally obliterating the highway for about a half mile, as a river is now running down one side of the divided highway and the barrier is collecting all the debris as it washes over top of the median. Haven't seen a start of a winter season much like this in the 27 years I have lived out west, so the pattern is a bit extreme at the moment.