Roger Smith

I am expecting a rather broken up winter temperature regime with spells of very mild and very cold, some tendency towards a colder second half of winter relative to normal in eastern and central states, and the opposite for western interior regions. Some powerful storms seem very likely given that energy peaks are going to be unusually concentrated. It should be the sort of winter when it would be bad luck for any region to escape a major winter event at some point. It could be a very active lake effect snow season.

First look at anomalies and projections ... _______________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA _ (9th) _______ (8d anom) ______--0.9 _ +1.0 _ +1.7 ___ --1.7 _ --0.7 _ --1.8 ___ +6.4 _ +7.4 _ +4.5 _ (16th) _____ (15d anom) _____ +1.1 _ +1.3 _ +2.0 ___ +2.6 _ +2.8 _ +2.0 ___ +6.2 _ +6.6 _ +3.8 _ (25th) _____ (24d anom) _____ +3.0 _ +2.4 _ +2.7 ___ +1.1 _ +3.5 _ +2.5 ___ +2.0 _ +6.5 _ +2.2 _ (9th) ______ (p15d anom) ____ --0.5 _ +0.5 _ +1.0 ___ --0.8 _ --0.5 _ --1.0 ___ +5.0 _ +6.0 _ +2.5 _ (16th) _____ (p22d anom) ____ --0.2 _ +0.2 _ +0.5 ___ +0.5 _ +1.0 _ +1.5 ___ +5.5 _ +6.0 _ +3.0 _ (9th) ______ (p25d anom) ____ --1.5 _ --1.0 __ 0.0 ___ --2.5 _ --1.5 _ --0.5 ___ +5.0 _ +5.5 _ +3.0 _ (16th) _____ (p31d anom) ____ --1.5 _ --1.0 __ 0.0 ___ --2.0 _ --1.0 _ +0.5 ___ +4.5 _ +5.0 _ +2.0 _ (25th) _____ (p31d anom) ____ +1.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.0 ___ --0.5 _ +2.0 _ +1.5 ___ --1.0* _ +5.0 _ +2.0 _ (31st) ____ final values _______ +2.4 _ +1.0 _ +0.7 ___ --1.0 _ +4.0 _ +0.2 ___ --1.1 _ +4.2 _ +1.5 _______________________________________ 9th _ First week was rather cool in the east although warming briefly 7th-8th. The west has been very warm (even where I live, in the 70s every day so far). ... Next week looks fairly similar, but after 15th GFS shows very cold air making an appearance over the Midwest and filtering into the northeast. Looks cold enough for lake effect snow at times, flurries in mountains of eastern states. Thus the 16d projections fall to below normal in eastern and central regions, staying quite warm in the west. 16th _ Second week continued near normal in the east, warm in the west. These trends will shift gradually to much below normal temperatures at times in the eastern and central states, staying fairly warm in the west although less marked in the Pac NW. 25th _ The expected cooling trend was muted for the east and confined to central and western states instead. Although it now appears likely to turn rather cool at times, the anomalies will likely remain positive for the four locations in the eastern time zone and close to normal for ORD. ... IAH, DEN and SEA will likely have a few more cool days then rebound to above normal warmth, and PHX will stay well above normal after perhaps a day or two of unusually cool weather taking a bit of the edge off near-record warmth for another month. * 27th _ Had to revise DEN as they got into some extremely cold air for three days, coming out of that now but it has really knocked the anomaly way down. Revised from +2.0 to -1.0 and they will be fortunate to get back even that far having fallen below -1 now (running quite warm all month to 23rd, then this ... anyway, it is what it is and we're supposed to foresee it). 1st _ Posting final values, scoring is now updated.

Whatever happens now, you will be closer than the other two (and Weather53), the actuals were 81, 81, 83, 82 on 7th, in my own case I could win the contest within a contest if even warmer temperatures occur later. But in terms of the contest leadership tie-breaker, nw baltimore wx wins. Congrats.

Scoring (out of 50 maximum) for 25/9/3 The scoring algorithm used each year for seasonal forecasts is to deduct the average of error and error squared. This means deductions of 1, 3, 6, 10, 15, 21, 28 for the first seven error values. FORECASTER ____________________St_ Hu_ Maj ____ Errors ___ Points Windspeed ______________________ 22 _11 _ 6 _____ 323 _____ 35 WxWatcher007 __________________ 21 _11 _ 5 _____ 422 _____ 34 Roger Smith _____________________ 20 _13 _ 7 _____ 544 _____ 15 NutleyBlizzard ___________________ 20 _12 _ 4 _____ 531 _____ 28 Orangeburg Wx __________________ 20 _11 _ 5 _____ 522 _____ 29 NCforecaster89 __________________20 _10 _ 5 _____ 512 _____ 31 Snowlover2 ______________________19 _12 _ 5 _____ 632 _____ 20 Thunderman _____________________19 _10 _ 5 _____ 612 _____ 25 BlueDXer75 ______________________19 _ 9 _ 5 _____ 602 _____ 26 NorthHillsWx ____________________ 19 _ 9 _ 4 _____ 601 _____ 28 ___ Consensus (means) ________ 18.5_10.3_4.9 __ 6.5, 1.3, 1.9 __ 21.7 Rhino16 _________________________ 18 _14 _ 5 _____ 752 _____ 4 Rtd208 __________________________ 18 _12 _ 7 _____ 734 _____ 6 Newman _________________________18 _10 _ 4 _____ 711 _____20 Yoda _____________________________18 _ 8 _ 4 _____ 711 _____20 JakkelWx ________________________ 17 _10 _ 6 _____ 813 _____ 7 Alfoman _________________________ 17 _ 9 _ 5 _____ 802 _____11 Jaxjagman ______________________ 16 _ 9 _ 5 _____ 902 _____ 2 NHC (mid-range) _________________16 _ 8 _ 4.5 ____9 1 1.5 __ 2.1 CSU _____________________________ 16 _ 8 _ 4 _____ 911 _____ 3 Olafminesaw ____________________ 15 _ 8 _ 4 _____10 1 1 _____ 0 Crownweather ___________________ 15 _ 8 _ 3 _____10 1 0 _____ 0 ___________________________________________________________________ Since the identification and naming of marginal TS on several occasions has distorted the forecasting skill shown, I may attempt to score with a slightly different weighting of errors, at the end of the season, as very few of these scores can avoid hitting zero if there are 3-4 more storms. (later edit) __ Tracking the updates, with the season now at 2,2,1 on top of the 25,9,3 to reach 27,11,4, these are the scores of anyone left standing at this point ... Scoring for 27, 11, 4 FORECASTER ____________________St_ Hu_ Maj ____ Errors ___ Points Windspeed ______________________ 22 _11 _ 6 _____ 502 _____ 32 WxWatcher007 __________________ 21 _11 _ 5 _____ 601 _____ 28 NutleyBlizzard ___________________ 20 _12 _ 4 _____ 710 _____ 21 Orangeburg Wx __________________ 20 _11 _ 5 _____ 701 _____ 21 NCforecaster89 __________________20 _10 _ 5 _____ 711 _____ 20 Roger Smith _____________________ 20 _13 _ 7 _____ 723 _____ 13 Thunderman _____________________19 _10 _ 5 _____ 811 _____ 12 Snowlover2 ______________________19 _12 _ 5 _____ 811 _____ 12 NorthHillsWx ____________________ 19 _ 9 _ 4 _____ 820 _____ 11 BlueDXer75 ______________________19 _ 9 _ 5 _____ 821 _____ 10 (all others drop below 10)

Count is 25/9/3, on its way to 218/12/4

Table of forecasts for October 2020 FORECASTER ____________ DCA _NYC _BOS ___ ORD _ATL _IAH ____ DEN _PHX _SEA RJay _____________________ +2.0 _+2.0 _+1.5 __+1.0 _+1.0 __ 0.0 ___ +3.0 _+3.5 _+3.5 DonSutherland1 __________ +1.5 _+1.0 _+0.8 __ +0.5 _--0.3 _--0.1 ___ +3.5 _+4.7 _+4.3 Yoda _____________________+1.4 _+1.2 _+0.7 __ +1.1 _+1.9 _+0.8 ___ +2.0 _+3.9 _+2.7 BKViking _____ (-1%) ______+1.0 _+1.4 _+1.5 __ +0.6 _--0.4 _+0.8 ___ +2.2 _+3.0 _+1.2 Scotty Lightning __________ +1.0 _+0.5 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 _+1.0 _+1.5 ___ +0.5 _+1.0 __ 0.0 wxallannj _________________ +0.7 _+0.6 _+0.4 __ +0.8 _+1.0 _+1.2 ___ +1.4 _+1.5 _+0.8 ___ Consensus ____________ +0.7 _+0.6 _+0.4 __ +0.6 __0.0 _+0.5 ___ +2.0 _+2.5 _+1.7 hudsonvalley21 ___________ +0.6 _+1.2 _+0.4 __ +0.3 _+0.3 _+0.5 ___ +1.9 _+2.3 _+1.7 RodneyS __________________ +0.2 _+0.4 _+1.0 __ +0.9 __0.0 _+0.7 ___ +1.8 _+2.0 _+1.5 Tom ______________________ +0.1 _--0.2 _--0.1 __ --0.6 _--0.5 _+0.1 ___ +1.6 _+2.5 _+1.9 Normal ____________________ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ____ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 _____0.0 __0.0 __0.0 wxdude64 ________________ --0.3 _--0.6 _--0.5 ___--0.4 _--1.1 _--0.6 ___ +2.4 _+1.8 _+1.2 Roger Smith ______________ --1.5 _--2.0 _--2.2 ___--1.5 _--0.5 __0.0 ___ +3.0 _+3.5 _+2.5 __________________________________ note: reduced the late penalty assessed to BKV as originally I had the idea his post was a day later, then I realized that I had not looked in for the first 24 hours while he posted, so it was only marginally late rather than the day and twelve hours that I had thought at first.

< < < < < ........ <<<< ---- ====== Annual Scoring (Jan-Sep) 2020 ====== ---- >>>> .......> > > > > Numbers in red denote highest cumulative scores for each of nine locations. Numbers in bold black type denote highest subtotals for regions. FORECASTER ______________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__ c/e __DEN_PHX_SEA__west ___ TOTAL RodneyS ___________________652_ 654_696 __2002 __593 _579_608__1780 __3782 __678_613_572_ 1863 ____5645 Don Sutherland.1 ___________580 _636_644 __1860 __515 _610_622 __1747 __3607 __450_578_596_ 1624 ____5231 hudsonvalley21 ____________537 _598 _667 __1802 __466 _576 _639 __1681 __3483 __517_640_563_ 1720 ____5203 RJay _______________________588 _631 _577 __1796 __513 _596 _587 __1696 __3492 __580_548_580_ 1708 ____5200 ___ Consensus _____________532 _572 _671 __1775 __444 _583_650 __1677 __3452 __520_633_564_ 1717 ____ 5169 BKViking __________________ 498 _552 _623 __1673 __477 _520 _610__1607 __3280 __547_637_619_ 1803 ____ 5083 wxallannj __________________550 _616 _649 __1815 __394 _565 _654 __1613 __3428 __498_599_546_ 1641 ____5069 Tom _______________________ 538 _572 _640 __1750__386 _624 _599__1609 __3359 __507_619_517_ 1643 ____5002 Scotty Lightning ____________442 _432 _526 __1400 __370 _573_692__1635 __3035 __438_588_582_ 1608 ____ 4643 wxdude64 __________________463 _481 _536 __1480__362 _534 _640__1536 __3016 __ 498_603_446_ 1547 ____4563 Roger Smith ________________446 _481 _578 __1505__396 _599 _554__1549 __3054 __ 540_420_398_ 1358 ____4412 Brian5671 _ (8/9) __________ 494 _502 _526 __1522 __323 _485 _545__1353 __2875 __318_478_542_ 1438 ____ 4313 ___ Normal _________________356 _352 _442 __1150 __302 _530 _540__1372 __2522 __370_480_ 542_ 1392 ____3914 JakkelWx _ (7/9) ___________ 380 _395 _514 __1289__370 _405 _532__1317 __2606 __390 _422 _330_ 1142 ____3748 yoda _ (3/9) ________________112 _ 131 _100 __ 343 __ 94_190 _223 __ 507 ___ 850 __ 171 _253_134 __ 558_____1408 rclab _ (1/9) _________________05 __ 00 __ 00 __ 005 __ 00 _ 11 _ 24 __ 035 ____ 040 ___ 56 _ 88 _ 66 __ 210 _____ 250 dwave _ (1/9) _______________ 72 __ 75 __ 48 __ 195 __ 12 _ 25 _ 10 __ 047 ____ 242 ___ 16 _ 34 _ 00 __ 050 _____ 292 Maxim _ (1/9) _______________00 __ 00 __ 00 __ 000 __ 00 _ 20 _ 46 __ 066 ____ 066 ___ 32 _ 50 _ 34 __ 116 _____ 182 Rhino16 _ (1/9) ______________00 __ 05 __ 20 __ 025 __ 00 _ 13 _ 30 __ 043 ____ 068 ___ 04 _ 52 _ 54 __ 110 _____ 178 ============================================================================== Extreme forecast standings January to September 64 of 81 forecasts so far have qualified for an extreme forecast award for the warmest forecast(s), 43 for warmest and 21 for coldest. FORECASTER ____ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _ Apr _ May _ Jun __ Jul _ Aug __ Sep _ Standings to date RodneyS _________ 2-0 __ 3-0 __ 0-1 __ ---- __ 2-0 __ 2-0 __ 0-1 __0-1 _ 4-1 ___13-4 Brian 5671 _______ 4-0 __ 1-0 __ 3-1 __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ ---- __ 1-1 __ ---- _ ---- ___ 11-2 Roger Smith ______ ---- __ ---- __ 1-0 __ 4-2 __ 1-0 __ ----- __ ---- __ 4-0 _ 1-0 ___ 11-2 RJay _____________ ----- __ ----- __ 3-0 __ ---- __ ----- __ 1-0 __ 3-0 __ ---- _ 3-0 ___ 10-0 DonSutherland1___0-0 __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ ---- __ 2-0 __ 2-0 __1-0 _ ---- ____ 8-0 Scotty Lightning __ 2-0 __ 0-0 __ ---- __ 1-0 __----- __ ----- __ 1-0 __1-0 _ 0-1 ____ 4-1 Normal ___________ 1-0 __ 0-1 __ ---- __ 1-0 __ ---- __ 2-0 __ ---- __ ---- _ 0-1 ____ 4-2 Tom ______________ 1-0 __ 0-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ 1-0 __ ----- __ ---- __ ---- _ 1-0 ____ 3-0 RClab _____________ 2-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ----- __ ----- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- ____ 2-0 wxdude64 ________ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ 1-0 __ ---- __ ----- __ ---- __ ---- __ 1-0 ____ 2-0 Jakkelwx __________ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ 1-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ 1-0 ____ 2-0 yoda ______________ 0-0 __ 1-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ----- __ ---- __ ---- _ 1-1 ____ 2-1 hudsonvalley21 ____ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ----- __ 1-0 __ ---- __ ---- ____ 1-0 wxallannj __________ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ 1-1 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- ____ 1-1 ================================================================================ BEST SCORES -- Totals for January to September Forecasters are listed in same order as annual points standings. Ties are possible which is why some locations have more than two best scores, also, if Normal or consensus achieve a top score, the actual forecaster with high score gets an award also. FORECASTER ______________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA__west___Months RodneyS ___________________ 2 ___ 1 ___ 2 ____ 2 ____ 3 ___ 0 ___ 2 ___ 3 ____ 3 ____ 1 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 3 _____ 4 _ Jan, Feb, May, Sep DonSutherland.1 ____________1 ___ 2 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 3 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 _____ 2 _ Mar, Apr hudsonvalley21 _____________0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 RJay _______________________ 2 ___ 2 ___ 0 ____ 3 ____ 1 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____ 2 ____ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 _____ 2 _ Jun, Jul ___ Consensus ______________0 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 BKViking ___________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 _____ 0 wxallannj ___________________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 _____ 0 Tom ________________________0 ___ 2 ___ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 Scotty Lightning ____________ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 2 ___ 2 ___ 1 _____ 0 wxdude64 __________________0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 Roger Smith ________________ 1 ___ 2 ___ 2 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 _____ 1 __ Aug Brian5671 __________________ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 0 _____ 0 _____ Normal _______________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 _____ 1 ___ Apr Jakkelwx ___________________1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 Yoda _______________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 RClab _______________________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 _____ 0

Thanks for those, good luck to the three of you.

--1.5 __ --2.0 __ --2.2 ___ --1.5 __ --0.5 __ 0.0 ___ +3.0 __ +3.5 __ +2.5

We enter the fourth quarter of the contest year, with the contest scoring relatively close. Predict the temperature anomalies (F deg) relative to 1981-2010 averages, for DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA (deadline 0600z Thursday October 1st, late penalties thereafter)

Could be quite early ... BWI Oct 17 IAD Oct 17 DCA Oct 24 RIC Oct 24 TB 87

A tiebreaker has been posted for the three who are tied, and the tiebreaker contest is also free-standing for anyone who wants to enter it. The details are back in my previous post of September 15th. Predict the max temps in October at the four locations used in the contest. I can't break the tie based on number of hits as two of the three had two locations on the money, the third member of the leadership group had three errors of 1 deg. If nobody enters the tiebreaker (of these three) then the contest ends tied.

Final scoring for September 2020 Scoring is based on end of month anomalies posted in edited previous post (three posts back now). FORECASTER _______________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent_ c/e __DEN_PHX_SEA__west___ TOTAL RodneyS ____________________64 _ 90 _ 74 ___ 228 __ 96 _ 96 _100__ 292 __ 520 __ 88 _ 98 _ 88 __ 274 ____ 794 wxdude64 __________________ 66 _ 96 _ 92 ___ 254 __ 58 _ 98 _ 98 __ 254 __ 508 __ 82 _ 86 _ 54 __ 222 ____ 730 Yoda ________________________48 _ 88 _ 84 ___ 220 __ 76 _ 72 _ 98 __ 246 __ 466 __100_ 92 _ 64 __ 256 ____ 722 BKViking ____________________56 _ 86 _ 86 ___ 228 __ 62 _ 86 _ 80 __ 228 __ 456 __ 92 _ 90 _ 82 __ 264 ____ 720 Jakkel Wx __________________ 76 _ 96 _ 92 ___ 264 __ 60 _ 96 _ 80 __ 236 __ 500 __ 76 _ 90 _ 44 __ 210 ____ 710 ___ Consensus ______________58 _ 90 _ 86 ___ 234 __ 70 _ 86 _ 90 __ 246 __ 480 __ 82 _ 88 _ 58 __ 228 ____ 708 RJay ________________________34 _ 66 _ 64 ___ 164 __ 96 _ 76 _ 76 __ 248 __ 412 __100_ 98 _ 76 __ 274 ____ 686 Roger Smith ________________ 68 _ 96 _ 94 ___ 258 __ 76 _ 90 _ 92 __ 258 __ 516 __ 90 _ 68 _ 12 __ 170 ____ 686 hudsonvalley21 _____________ 50 _ 90 _ 86 ___ 226 __ 74 _ 68 _ 86 __ 228 __ 454 __ 82 _ 82 _ 60 __ 224 ____ 678 DonSutherland 1 ____________ 48 _ 76 _ 80 ___ 204 __ 66 _ 86 _ 82 __ 234 __ 438 __ 64 _ 92 _ 80 __ 236 ____ 674 Tom ________________________62 _ 96 _ 94 ___ 252 __ 78 _ 78 _ 84 __ 240 __ 492 __ 82 _ 76 _ 22 __ 180 ____ 672 wxallannj ___________________ 56 _ 82 _ 76 ___ 214 __ 54 _ 70 _ 98 __ 222 __ 436 __ 72 _ 84 _ 48 __ 204 ____ 640 Scotty Lightning ____________ 74 _ 94 _ 86 ___ 254 __ 56 _ 86 _ 96 __ 238 __ 492 __ 70 _ 58 _ 16 __ 144 ____ 636 ___ Normal _________________ 84 _ 84 _ 86 ___ 254 __ 66 _ 94 _ 76 __ 236 __ 490 __ 60 _ 38 _ 16 __ 114 ____ 604 ====================================================================================== Extreme Forecast Report DCA (-0.8) finished below all forecasts so Jakkelwx at 0.4 (as well as Normal) scoops an extreme forecast. NYC was close but second to fifth coldest forecasts all tied for top score, Scotty Lightning was spared a loss as this was just outside the qualifying zone (if more than two wins against a loss, all ties must be same value, in this case, two different values involved). BOS (+0.7) was similar but with second and third coldest forecasts tied for high score, this becomes a loss for Scotty Lightning (and Normal) with low forecasts of 0.0, shared win for Roger Smith (+0.4) and Tom (+1.0). ORD (+1.7) was slightly warmer than the tied highest forecasts (RJay, RodneyS both +1.5) giving them an extreme forecast award. ATL (+0.3) produced a loss for RodneyS (+0.1) and a win for wxdude64 (+0.2). IAH (+1.2) was a win for RodneyS (also +1.2) with highest forecast. DEN (+2.0) is a shared win for RJay and Yoda (+2.0) and a loss for BKViking at high forecast of +2.4. PHX (+3.1) is a shared win for RodneyS and RJay (+3.0) and a loss for Yoda at high forecast of +3.5. SEA (+4.2) was always a safe bet for warmest forecast (RodneyS +3.6) to take the award. ================================================================================ Annual Update to follow.

About the forest fire smoke situation -- 2017 was not that exceptional a year, we had a lot worse smoke in western Canada in 2018. Last year was fairly moderate and this year only became bad after mid-August. However, it has had a very noticeable effect on air mass temperature as it did in late August 2018. For several days where I am located, the uppers would have been good for 28-30 C each day but some days were as low as 20 to 23 C. As the smoke has thinned slightly yesterday and today we are back up to 24-25 C. But we're under a ridge with 570dm thickness. It should be 30 to 32 C here and 35 C in lower elevations of the inland Pac NW. The temperature anomaly is fairly widespread (meaning the temperature reduction due to smoke). I can see its signature into Alberta and Montana. The effects on subarctic temperatures could be significant too, if smoke layers advect north into the traditional source region for autumn arctic air outbreaks (NWT-w Nunavut). At those higher latitudes, solar angle becomes very low by late September and October, the influence of any particulates would be even more pronounced. On the other hand, pseudo-frontal boundaries created by these impacts could have ripple effects downstream, modelling that is not just a sketch on an envelope sort of proposition. It can also be noted that the weather in arctic Canada has not been unusually warm this past "summer" and August began the cooling cycle if anything a bit ahead of the recent average pace. This indicates prospects for a healthy arctic production of cold air masses through the autumn season. The trend in recent years has been for polar vortex positioning near Baffin Island and the Hudson strait region. When that expands to include large parts of Hudson Bay and Quebec, a cold regime can then extend well south of 40 deg latitude.

Now at 20/8/2, would be 22/8/2 if two invests in Gulf, tropical Atlantic reach TS status (and not hurricane).

Except for 2005, a lot of the more active tropical seasons have been followed by cold winters in eastern NA. 1933 was second most active before this year, and the winter of 1933-34 was epic although punctuated by a ho-hum January. 1995 was a very active year, and 1969 at least had a cold winter although rather dry following on. The most active season before 1900 was 1887, say no more. However, 1936 and 2005 were not rewarded and more recent active seasons are part of the larger shift away from cold winters. So I'll just say that the tropical activity is by no means a red card situation for the winter prospects. The large amounts of forest fire smoke being generated over the interior west could be a factor assisting early cold regimes that are available even if they won't be directly created by the smoke layers. Temperatures in some places have dropped considerably under the thick smoke despite no real change in air mass. Those are some minor factors compared to teleconnections that most people would consult. I don't see anything too well-defined from the standard parameters. So I had a look at some research index values for any hints. What I found was that this should be a cold and snowy winter (in the eastern U.S. generally) with any luck. I suspect it would be a stop and go type of winter where you have to be patient and take limited opportunities, but one of them might click to produce a good snowfall event. So mark me down as mildly optimistic.

Contest trivia ... Smallest maximum error overall __ 1 F _ NWBaltimorewx had three plus one on the money to tie for the lead (3 error points) Most perfect forecasts _ 2 _ Rhino16 had IAD and RIC on the money, accumulated 3 error points and is also tied for the lead. ________________________ 2 _ Wxwatcher007 had DCA and RIC on the money, accumulated 3 error points and is also tied for the lead. ________________________ 2 _ CAPE had DCA and IAD correct, but accumulated 7 error points elsewhere, finished t-9th with ________________________ 1 _ Soundmdwatcher who had DCA correct and also 7 error points. ________________________ 1 _ Weather 53 had IAD on the mark, and was tied 4th with MN Transplant and Winston Salem Arlington who ____________________________ both had three errors of 1 degree , and one of 2 degrees. Closest to average of four __ (99.75) _ NWBaltimorewx had an average of 99.50, WxUSAF was second closest at 100.25, and co-leaders ______________________________________ Rhino16 and Wxwatcher007 tied for third at 99.00. It can be seen from the above that 3 error points tied for first, and 5 error points tied fourth, while 7 points tied 9th. The missing link is that 6 error points tied for 7th (two in that position were WxUSAF, and Eskimo Joe; also our consensus).

Three are tied for the lead (3 error points) with almost zero possibility of higher temperatures to come. If the leaders wish, a tiebreaker could be highest temperature in October at the same four locations. I will score any predictions made but only current leaders could win the contest as a result of those. Deadline for the October tiebreakers would be October 1st 0600z. Here's mine just for the heck of it ... BWI 88 .. DCA 87 .. IAD 86 .. RIC 91 If enough people enter this, I'll declare it a free-standing separate contest as well as our tiebreaker. (Tiebreaker null and void if any actual seasonal max is altered now to 30th) Tiebreaker valid if one or more tied leaders enters. Will be pm'ing any who don't appear by 27th. Tiebreaker edits are of course permissible and no need to draw attention to them as no record will be kept until October 1st.

Seasonal Max contest -- Final results __ error points __ those shown in blue are too low, rest are too high or on the mark (for 0) ... Seasonal Max to date __ 99 __ 96 __ 95 __ 97 _ 96 _ 102 _101 _118 _ 98 FORECASTER _________ DCA_NYC_BOS _ORD_ATL_IAH _DEN_PHX_SEA ____ Total RodneyS ________________0 ___ 2 ___ 2 ____ 1 __ 3 __ 1 _____ 3 __ 0 __ 5 ______ 17 wxallannj _______________ 2 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 __ 2 __ 4 _____ 3 __ 2 __ 4 ______ 18 wxdude64 ______________ 1 ___ 3 ___ 4 ____ 1 __ 3 __ 3 _____ 2 __ 1 __ 2 ______ 20 DonSutherland1 ________ 2 ___ 2 ___ 3 ____ 1 __ 3 __ 2 _____ 4 __ 0 __ 4 ______ 21 hudsonvalley21 _________2 ___ 4 ___ 3 ____ 0 __ 5 __ 3 _____ 3 __ 0 __ 3 ______ 23 BKViking _______________ 2 ___ 3 ___ 3 ____ 6 __ 5 __ 1 _____ 2 __ 0 __ 3 ______ 25 Tom ____________________3 ___ 3 ___ 4 ____ 5 __ 6 __ 2 _____ 4 __ 1 __ 2 ______ 30 Scotty Lightning ________ 3 ___ 6 ___ 4 ____ 1 __ 7 __ 5 _____ 4 __ 1 __ 1 ______ 32 Roger Smith ____________ 3 ___ 4 ___ 6 ____ 2 __ 7 __ 5 _____ 6 __ 2 __ 2 ______ 37 ======================================================================== (actual forecasts) Scotty Lightning ________ 102 __ 102 ___ 99 ___ 96 __ 103 __ 107 ___ 97 __ 117 __ 97 Roger Smith ____________ 102 __ 100 __ 101 ___99 __ 103 __ 107 __ 107 __ 120 __ 96 Tom ____________________ 102 ___99 ___ 99 ___102 __ 102 __ 104 ___97 __ 119 __ 96 hudsonvalley21 _________101 __ 100 ___ 98 ___ 97 __ 101 __ 105 ___ 98 __ 118 __ 95 BKViking _______________ 101 ___ 99 ___ 98 __ 103 __ 101 __ 103 ___ 99 __ 118 __ 95 DonSutherland1 ________ 101 ___ 98 ___ 98 ___ 96 ___ 99 __ 104 ___ 97 __ 118 __ 94 wxdude64 ______________ 100 ___ 99 ___ 99 ___ 98 __ 100 __ 105 __ 103 __ 117 __ 96 RodneyS _________________ 99 ___ 98 ___ 97 ___ 96 ___ 99 __ 103 ___ 98 __ 118 __ 93 wxallannj _________________97 ___ 96 ___ 95 ___ 98 ___ 98 ___ 98 ___ 98 __ 116 __ 94 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- These results can now be considered final. Congrats to RodneyS and wxallannj for their top scores with wxdude64 and DonSutherland1 also doing well.

(forecast was 21/11/5 compared to 22/11/6 from windspeed) ... bawk bawk bawk ... you are fine with the 11/5 part anyway, maybe 30/11/6? We are now at 20/7/1, could reach 20/7/3 if both Sally and Paulette reach major status, and 20/8/4 if Teddy does also. Some variations on that more likely, perhaps by the time Teddy goes major Wilfred will be along and the count may be 21/8/3 if only one of Sally or Paulette become cat-3. If the season then slows a bit compared to 2005 (I would expect maybe Nov 2020 won't keep up to Nov 2005) the final landing point might be 25/10/4 or something like that. If 25/10/4 verifies, then the best seasonal score will be Windspeed at 40/50 with WxWatcher007 at 38/50. Points as always are calculated as follows: For each of the three elements ... penalty points from original total of 50 are 1 for an error of 1, 3 for an error of 2 (average of 2+4), 6 for an error of 3 (average of 3+9), 10 for an error of 4 (average of 4+16), 15 for an error of 5 (average of 5+25), etc. So nobody with a forecast of 20 or fewer storms can beat 40 even if they have H and M perfect (assuming 25 storms). If the count goes much past 28, nobody will score points but I'll declare the winner to be whoever is least below zero. Looks like a two-person race now, although those of us with 20 named storms have faint hopes with the right set of future outcomes, not very likely ones given current model projections and the statistical likelihood of passing 22 named storms. If we finished at 21/10/4 NCForecaster89 (20/10/5 predicted) would have 48 points, but the only route to that finish is for Vicky to become a hurricane and Wilfred also, plus any three of Sally, Paulette, Teddy, Vicky and Wilfred becoming majors. This is not entirely impossible. In fact 49 points is theoretically possible at 21/10/5 (four of five become majors). At 21/9/5 (Vicky not a hurricane) it would be 48 points. If the current season froze with maximum hurricane development of all candidates, the final count would be 20/9/5. Vicky seems unlikely to become a hurricane at all, so 20/8/4 is realistically the highest we can reach from current levels (unless Rene unpredictably comes back to life). Orangeburgwx at 20/11/5 is unable to pass NCForecaster89 mathematically since there is no chance of reaching 21/11 from 20/7 without a re-do on a previous storm, only 21/10 is possible now with two current storms yet to reach hurricane status. A 22/10/3 finish would leave NCForecaster89 at 46 points, Orangeburgwx at 45, and windspeed at 43 with wxwatcher007 also at 45. So NCForecaster89 needs a slowdown of the season but with some vigor in the hurricane production. Beyond 23 named storms, the storm-20s fall out of contention rather quickly, by 24 the error component of named storms is 10 points which is hard to overcome given that more storms probably means more canes. The other two at 20 (Nutley Blizzard and myself) have little mathematical chance either, although I would come within a point or two around 30/13/7. The way this season is going, 30/13/7 sounds difficult, 30/11/3 perhaps.

Meteociel I should mention to the AmWx membership in general is a terrific source of weather info especially for Europe. They also have a forum. Wetterzentrale.de same general idea. MrFreeze6298, also look into UK forum Net-weather and the weather forum on boards.ie (in Ireland). You'll probably find them interesting also. I am on both, same name as here on net-weather, and "M.T. Cranium" on boards.ie weather forum. There are several members of Net-weather who are residents of France although I think in most cases they are British ex-pats. I was in France several times many many years ago (sadly) and never once saw a drop of rain, just lucky I guess. Besides Paris I have been in the northeast, Loire valley, Bordeaux-Bergerac region and the Med coast from Spanish border after visiting Barcelona to Marseilles then Lyon to Paris, but not the Riviera or the Alps. This was back around 1972 and 1974 when I was free to travel. Loved it but found that you didn't want to drive in most parts of France with a "75" registration (Paris). One thing I recall is that people drove with only parking lights on at night, is that still true? I found it quite dangerous being used to full headlights.

More likely from skateboard to snowboard.

So for DEN the actual result (at KDEN) was a mixture of rain, sleet and snow, they're only saying 1.0" on 8th out of 0.72" precip, and today's prelim report is .02" precip with light snow mentioned (but they don't give an amount until end of day). Even if that 0.02" is something like 0.2 to 1.0 more, the total snow was sparse at the location, probably did increase steadily across the DEN metro to reach mostly snow in the mix at higher elevations. Temperature anomalies on 8th (-30) and 9th (-29) have yanked the monthly anomaly down from +6 after 7d to -2 after 9d. This will continue for a day or two then DEN will see what I'm already seeing here, a return to the heat (highs here from Sunday to Wednesday have been 92, 65, 68, 84). Here we had a minimum of 33F on Tuesday morning (DEN had 31F). The anomalous cold was also quite exceptional in Utah. SLC on 8th had 55/43 for a -21 anomaly. Vernal in northeast UT had 41/31, not sure what anomaly that gives but assuming their normal mean is 2 lower than SLC, it would be around -32. Moab (Canyonlands) also failed to break 50. It has warmed up slightly today in Utah. At one point Bryce Canyon had a wind chill in the 20s (F). Normally it would be close to 80 F there at this time of year. I was there in 2016 and it was around 90 degrees on the first of September. Even more bizarre, I think Las Vegas had a midnight high and the entire night was warmer than most of the day. At this time of year, that rarely if ever happens in the desert southwest.

__ First report on this month's anomalies, trends, and updated seasonal maxima. __ _________________________DCA_NYC_BOS __ ORD_ATL_IAH _____ DEN_PHX_SEA _9th ___ (8d) ____________+2.1_+2.6_+1.7 __+2.7_+2.5_+3.9 ____ +1.2_+4.8 _+6.2 _17th __ (16d) __________ +0.7_+0.9_+0.2 __+1.7_+2.7_+3.9 ____ --2.0_+0.9 _+4.5 _24th __(23rd) __________--1.6 _--0.8_--1.5 __+1.0_+0.3_+2.3 ____ +1.3_+2.3_+4.2 _9th __ (p15d) ___________+2.5_+2.5_+1.5 __+1.0_+1.5_+2.0 ____--2.5_+1.5 _+5.0 _17th __ (p23d) __________+0.2_+0.3_--0.5 __+2.0_+2.0_+3.0 _____ 0.0_+1.5 _+3.5 _9th __ (p25d) ___________+3.0_+3.5_+2.5 __+2.0_+2.0_+2.0 ____ +0.5_+1.5 _+3.0 _9th __ (p30d) ___________+2.5_+3.0_+2.0 __+2.5_+2.5_+2.5 ____ +1.0_+2.0 _+2.5 _17th __ (p30d) __________+0.5_+0.5__0.0 __+2.5_+2.0_+2.5 ____ +1.0_+2.0 _+2.5 _24th __ (p30d) __________ 0.0_+0.5__0.0 __+2.0_+1.0_+2.5 ____ +1.5_+2.5 _+2.5 _1st Oct__(30d)__________--0.8_+0.8_+0.7 __+1.7_+0.3_+1.2 ____ +2.0_+3.1 _+4.2 Seasonal Max to date ___ 99 __ 96 __ 95 ___ 97 __ 96 __102 ____ 101 _ 118 __ 98 Notes: 9th _ DEN plunged from heat wave (seasonal max increased to 101 5th) to mixed rain/snow on 8th, 1.0" reported on 8th along with 0.72" precip. A small additional amount reported today. Anomaly for the day of -30 on 8th (-29 on 9th) was not quite enough to reverse the sign (the anomaly was about +6 after seven days) but now sitting around -3 after nine days. Other locations have had a less adventurous and mostly warmish start to the month. I experienced all but the mixed rain and snow here, temperature fell from 92 F on 6th to morning low of 33 F on 8th, now back up near 90 F. Bizarre to say the least, plus forest fire smoke advecting in from WA state (otherwise border remains closed). ... Following week looks similar to past 2-3 days in most areas, DEN will gradually flip back to warmth but will retain a negative anomaly likely to at least 20th. Longer term, warmish for most regions, cooling off in Pac NW compared to first half (close to normal), GFS 18z shows major hurricane near east coast US at end of run. (this not a factor in the temperature forecast but implies potential for late month cooler interval to follow its passage) Just for comparative purposes later, I extended the usual 16-day projection to end of month to see how much that changes by near end of September, based on assumption of persistence of pattern at end of run. RJay will be hoping I'm right (meaning GFS is right) while I will be hoping for a big error. Will score the seasonal max forecasts made back in May soon, I would think we're pretty much done increasing although ATL could add a degree or two I suppose. 17th _ Was a day late getting to the update, in any case, things have cooled back towards zero anomalies in the east and recovered at DEN to almost normal again. The rest of the month looks fairly bland in the east, warm in the west although not overly so for SEA. End of month projections can be regarded as rather approximate. When I feel more confident about them, I will post some provisional scoring. Looks like a mixed bag of scores at the moment, but too early to be very certain about trends. 24th _ Eastern stations had a cool week and have dipped below normal, will probably recover to near normal in a slightly warmer regime. The central and western locations will hold on to their small to medium sized positive anomalies and perhaps build on them slightly. Will follow up with provisional scoring soon. 1st Oct _ End of month anomalies are now all posted and scoring will be fully updated by 15z.

Hey raindancewx, 60 mph east wind gusts at KABQ -- that's stronger than almost anywhere else in this storm so far. Las Vegas had a gust to 50 mph at 0700h and I looked on their TV news sites, plenty of minor wind damage and four foot waves on Lake Mead (what's left of it). Looks to me like the cold northeast turning north to northwest outflow is petering out now as the dynamics weaken slowly, will be slowly back to ridge building over the far west from now on. Visible satellite imagery earlier showing massive smoke outflows in northeast CA towards northern central valley. Expect to hear some fire news later but not sure whether any other parts of the central valley experienced strong outflow winds, they did reach 29Palms earlier (in the Mojave). The humid wedge that was over the south-central interior of CA was gently nudged back to where it originated, the Sea of Cortez. Looks like the heat trough is bruised but still standing. Most of Utah is very chilly, Vernal is barely above freezing and they are not high up at all. I'm sure if they got even a trace of snow it would earliest on record (unless the dinosaurs were keeping records maybe).