Roger Smith

Final Scoring for June 2020 This scoring is based on the end of month data with all stations now final (see anomaly tracker two posts back). Late penalties are small so there are no separate lines for raw scores and adjusted, the scores presented are after penalties, * for 1 pt deduction and ** for 2 pt deductions. ... Raw scores for ORD were all below 60, so the scoring was adjusted to fit a minimum progression of 60, 55, 50 etc, however, if raw scores were higher than progression values (the lowest forecast) the raw scores were used. The ^ symbol is used when scores are adjusted (^* means progression score reduced by late penalty). Note RJay late penalties only applied to late edits for DCA, NYC and BOS, other forecasts were not changed after deadline. FORECASTER _____________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent_c/e___DEN_PHX_SEA__west ___ TOTALS RJay _______ (-2%) __________92**92**_88**_272 __ 60^ _70 _80 __ 210 __ 482 __ 68 _ 84 _ 92 __ 244 _____ 726 RodneyS ___________________ 76 _ 78 _ 96 __ 250 __ 50^_ 78 _ 80 __ 208 __ 458 __ 94 _ 80 _ 72 __ 246 _____ 704 wxallannj ___________________96 _ 90 _ 86 __ 272 __ 35^_ 54 _ 80 __ 169 __ 441 __ 58 _ 98 _100__ 256_____ 697 Jakkelwx ___________________84 _ 88 _ 80 __ 252 __ 55^_ 60 _ 78 __ 195 __ 447 __ 74 _ 84 _ 88 __ 246 _____ 693 BKViking ___________________82 _ 84 _100__ 266 __ 45^_ 60 _ 74 __ 179 __ 445 __ 50 _ 92 _ 92 __ 234 _____ 679 Tom _______________________ 84 _ 84 _ 92 __ 260 __ 25^_ 70 _ 70 __ 165 __ 425 __ 58 _ 88 _ 96 __ 242 _____ 667 ___ Consensus ______________82 _ 84 _ 92 __ 258 __ 33^_ 60 _ 80 __ 173 __ 431 __ 58 _ 92 _ 90 __ 240 _____ 671 Scotty Lightning ____________84 _ 84 _ 90 __ 258 __ 30^_ 60 _ 70 __ 160 __ 418 __ 48 _ 96 _ 92 __ 236 _____ 654 DonSutherland.1 ___________ 64 _ 70 _ 86 __ 220 __ 20^_ 86 _ 94 __ 200 __ 420 __ 58 _100 _ 72 __230 _____ 650 Roger Smith ________________80 _ 84 _ 80 __ 244 __ 15^_ 70 _ 80 __ 165 __ 409 __ 78 _ 74 _ 82 __ 234 _____ 643 hudsonvalley21 ____________ 80 _ 86 _ 98 __ 264 __ 12 _ 56 _ 70 __ 138 __ 402 __ 64 _ 82 _ 80 __ 226 _____ 628 wxdude64 __ (-1%) _________ 79*_71*_71* __ 221 __ 40^_ 53*_81*__174 __ 395 __ 22 _ 91*_ 69*__182 _____ 577 ___ Normal _________________54 _ 64 _ 70 __ 188 __ 00 _ 90 _100 __ 190 __ 378 __ 28 _ 76 _ 82 __ 186 _____ 564 Brian5671 __ (-2%) _________ 43*_63*_69* __ 175 __29^* 39*_78**__146 __ 321 __ 37*_65*_80**_ 182 _____ 503 _______________________________________________________________________ Extreme forecast report _ six of nine qualify, four for high forecast(s) and two for low forecast. DCA, ORD and PHX are wins for high forecasts, wxallannj takes DCA and RodneyS takes the other two. NYC is a win for second highest forecast (RJay) and a loss for highest forecast wxallannj. ATL and IAH are wins for low forecasts from Don Sutherland, Normal also gets wins for both. BOS, PHX and SEA had best scores near consensus. ____________________________________________________________________________

+0.3 __ +0.1 __ 0.0 ___ +0.2 __ --0.2 __ --0.4 ___ +1.5 __ +0.7 __ 0.0

Predict the temperature anomalies (F deg) relative to 1981-2010 normal values: DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Anyone who didn't enter the seasonal max portion can still enter that too. Good luck !!

Seasonal Max predictions If you're not in this yet, post some numbers. I will also accept any edits of forecasts made. Not looking like our seasonal max is happening within the rest of June, so probably no real advantage for anyone posting now. FORECASTER ___________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Scotty Lightning ________ 102 __ 102 ___ 99 ___ 96 __ 103 __ 107 ___ 97 __ 117 __ 97 Roger Smith ____________ 102 __ 100 __ 101 ___99 __ 103 __ 107 __ 107 __ 120 __ 96 Tom ____________________ 102 ___99 ___ 99 ___102 __ 102 __ 104 ___97 __ 119 __ 96 hudsonvalley21 _________101 __ 100 ___ 98 ___ 97 __ 101 __ 105 ___ 98 __ 118 __ 95 BKViking _______________ 101 ___ 99 ___ 98 __ 103 __ 101 __ 103 ___ 99 __ 118 __ 95 DonSutherland1 ________ 101 ___ 98 ___ 98 ___ 96 ___ 99 __ 104 ___ 97 __ 118 __ 94 wxdude64 ______________ 100 ___ 99 ___ 99 ___ 98 __ 100 __ 105 __ 103 __ 117 __ 96 RodneyS _________________ 99 ___ 98 ___ 97 ___ 96 ___ 99 __ 103 ___ 98 __ 118 __ 93 wxallannj _________________97 ___ 96 ___ 95 ___ 98 ___ 98 ___ 98 ___ 98 __ 116 __ 94

Table of entries for 2020 N Atl hurricane seasonal forecast Two expert predictions are added to the field, the NHC numbers are middle of their range and CSU gave specific values as shown. Other institutional predictions can be seen at this link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Atlantic_hurricane_season Your forecasts are shown in order of number of named storms, then broken down by hurricanes and major hurricanes. FORECASTER ____________________St_ Hu_ Maj Windspeed ______________________ 22 _11 _ 6 WxWatcher007 __________________ 21 _11 _ 5 Roger Smith _____________________ 20 _13 _ 7 NutleyBlizzard ___________________ 20 _12 _ 4 Orangeburg Wx __________________ 20 _11 _ 5 NCforecaster89 __________________20 _10 _ 5 Snowlover2 ______________________19 _12 _ 5 Thunderman _____________________19 _10 _ 5 BlueDXer75 ______________________19 _ 9 _ 5 NorthHillsWx ____________________ 19 _ 9 _ 4 ___ Consensus (means) ________ 18.5_10.3_4.9 Rhino16 _________________________ 18 _14 _ 5 Rtd208 __________________________ 18 _12 _ 7 Newman _________________________18 _10 _ 4 Yoda _____________________________18 _ 8 _ 4 JakkelWx ________________________ 17 _10 _ 6 Alfoman _________________________ 17 _ 9 _ 5 Jaxjagman ______________________ 16 _ 9 _ 5 NHC (mid-range) _________________16 _ 8 _ 4.5 CSU _____________________________ 16 _ 8 _ 4 Olafminesaw ____________________ 15 _ 8 _ 4 Crownweather ___________________ 15 _ 8 _ 3 ______________________________________________________________ 19 forecasts (and the two expert predictions) ... means as shown for consensus in table. The contest means do not include the two expert predictions although they would not change much with them included.

Table of entries -- 2020 seasonal maxima in the Mid-Atlantic region Forecasts appear by order of BWI predictions, then sorted by DCA, IAD and RIC where tied to that point. Consensus is derived from medians although means would be similar. With 20 forecasts the median is the average of 10th and 11th ranked. The actual maximum to date will move up through this table (we can presume) to its eventual resting place. Later in the contest, a table of departures will be posted to show the evolving results of the contest. FORECASTER _________BWI _ DCA _ IAD _ RIC George BM ___________110 _ 111 _ 111 _ 112 NorthArlington101 ____103 _ 103 _ 101 _ 104 Roger Smith __________103 _ 103 _ 101 _ 102 tplbge ________________103 _ 101 _ 102 _ 103 H2O __________________102 _ 105 _ 102 _ 102 yoda _________________ 102 _ 103 _ 100 _ 104 wxdude64 ____________102 _ 102 _ 100 _ 103 WxUSAF ______________102 _ 101 __ 98 _ 100 Eskimo Joe ___________102 _ 100 _ 101 _ 100 WinstonSalemArlington __102 _ 100 _ 100 _ 102 ___ Consensus ________102 _ 101 _ 100 _ 102 WEATHER53 __________101 _ 101 __ 99 _ 103 Southmdwatcher _____ 101 __ 99 _ 101 _ 105 nw baltimore wx ______ 101 __ 99 __ 98 _ 100 C.A.P.E. _______________100 _ 104 __ 99 _ 103 MN Transplant _________99 __ 98 __ 98 __ 99 Rhino16 _______________ 99 __ 97 __ 99 _ 101 Wx Watcher 007 _______ 98 __ 99 __ 98 _ 101 Dan The Man __________ 98 __ 96 __ 97 __ 99 TSG ___________________ 97 __ 98 __ 95 __ 98 JakkelWx ______________ 96 __ 97 __ 97 _ 100 ___ Actual to date ______ 96 __ 93 __ 95 __ 94 _______________________________________________________ The means of the 20 forecasts are (contest means) _____ 101.1_ 100.9_ 99.9 _ 102.1

Okay, just a notice that this contest will close for entries at the end of the day Monday, the deadline is set at 06z 16th which is 0200h EDT (after midnight Monday, very early Tuesday) .... I will take entries as shown then so you can edit today or Monday without the need to notify. The table of entries will be based on what I see on Tuesday morning (will have the table of entries up within a few hours of the deadline). Don't forget we are at 3/0/0 so it's that plus whatever you think will happen to end of the year for a prediction of the overall seasonal count. Good luck !!

Monday 15th is the last day for entries or for editing your existing entries. No need to notify on edits, I will construct a table of entries from what I see on Tuesday. You can enter up to the end of the day (06z Tuesday is the cutoff). I will post a closed for entries note and start on the table of entries at that time. Good luck !!

Tracking how anomalies are developing, and projections ... __________________________ DCA _NYC _BOS ___ ORD _ATL _IAH ____ DEN _PHX _SEA _9th ______ (8d) __________ +3.3 _+2.0 _+2.0 ___ +8.7 _+2.3 _+2.2 ___ +8.8 _+3.9 _--0.9 16th ______(15d) _________ +2.5 _+1.8 _+0.4 ___ +4.4 _+1.0 _+1.1 ___ +5.7 _+2.3 _--1.1 23rd ______(22d) _________ +1.2 _+1.8 _+1.2 ___ +5.2 _--0.5 _+0.1 ___ +3.9 _+1.4 _+0.2 _9th ______(p15d) ________+3.5 _+2.5 _+2.5 ___ +6.0 _+3.5 _+3.0 ___ +8.0 _+2.5 _--0.7 _16th ____ (p22d) ________ +1.5 _+1.0 _--0.5 ___ +2.5 __0.0 _+0.5 ___ +4.0 _+2.5_ --0.5 _9th ______(p25d) ________+4.0 _+3.0 _+3.0 ___ +6.0 _+3.0 _+3.0 ___ +7.0 _+2.0 _--0.5 _16th ____ (p30d) ________ +0.5 __0.0 _--1.0 ___ +1.5 _--0.5 __0.0 ___ +3.0 _+2.5 _--0.5 _23rd ____ (p30d) ________ +1.5 _+1.0 _+0.5 ___ +3.5 _--0.5 __0.0 ___ +3.5 _+2.0 __0.0 final anomalies __________ +2.3 _+1.8 _+1.5 ___ +5.0 _--0.5 __0.0 ___ +3.6_ +1.2 _+0.9 ______________________________________ (9th) _ A fairly warm start to the month except in the Pac NW which has been chilly and wet. These trends not expected to change much next week, with a buildup of stronger warmth looking set for later in June. The cool regime in the Pac NW appears likely to trend towards subdued warmth later in the month. (16th) _ The forecasts began to unravel somewhat this past week due to the influence of coastal low pressure and a general trend towards cloudiness in eastern and central regions. This is now expected to be a persistent trend and the shrinking positive anomalies may have trouble surviving in any form to end of the month in most cases. The southwest should remain quite warm relative to normal, and the Pac NW will probably remain cooler than normal. (23rd) _ Past week trended a bit warmer than predicted but now looking somewhat cooler again to end of month, with the western heat continuing but fading in the Pac NW after a few hot days here. (1st July) _ Anomalies have been posted and contest scored overnight.

Table of forecasts for June 2020 FORECASTER ______________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA ___ wxallannj ___________________+2.1 _+2.3 _+2.2 __ +1.1 _+1.8 _+1.0 __ +1.5 _+1.3 _+0.9 RJay _______ (-2%) __________+2.0 _+2.0 _+2.0 __ +2.5 _+1.0 _+1.0 __ +2.0 _+2.0 _+0.5 Jakkelwx ___________________+1.5 _+1.2 _+0.5 __ +2.4 _+1.5 _+1.1 __ +2.3 _+2.0 _+0.3 Tom _______________________ +1.5 _+1.0 _+1.1 __ +0.9 _+1.0 _+1.5 __ +1.5 _+1.8 _+1.1 Scotty Lightning ____________+1.5 _+1.0 _+1.0 __ +1.0 _+1.5 _+1.5 __ +1.0 _+1.0 _+0.5 BKViking ___________________+1.4 _+1.0 _+1.5 __ +1.5 _+1.5 _+1.3 __ +1.1 _+1.6 _+1.3 ___ Consensus _____________ +1.4 _+1.0 _+1.1 __ +1.2 _+1.5 _+1.0 __ +1.5 _+1.6 _+0.4 hudsonvalley21 ____________ +1.3 _+1.1 _+1.4 __ +0.6 _+1.7 _+1.5 __ +1.8 _+2.1 _+1.9 Roger Smith ________________+1.3 _+1.0 _+0.5 __ +0.7 _+1.0 _+1.0 __ +2.5 _+2.5 __0.0 wxdude64 __ (-1%) _________ +1.3 _+0.4 _+0.1 __ +1.3 _+1.8 _+0.9 __ --0.3 _+0.8 _--0.6 RodneyS ___________________ +1.1 _+0.7 _+1.3 __ +1.9 _+0.6 _+1.0 __ +3.9 _+2.2 _--0.5 DonSutherland.1 ___________ +0.5 _+0.3 _+0.8 __ +0.8 _+0.2 _--0.3 __ +1.5 _+1.2 _--0.5 ___ Normal __________________0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __0.0 ___ 0.0 __0.0 __ 0.0 Brian5671 __ (-2%) _________ --0.5 __ 0.0 __0.0 __ +1.0 _+2.5 _+1.0 __ +0.5 _+0.5 __0.0 __________________________________________________________________________ forecasts color coded for warmest and coldest. Consensus is median of 12 forecasts (mean of 6th, 7th ranked). Normal is also colder than forecasts for ORD, ATL and PHX, tied coldest for NYC, BOS. (note edit on June 23 was to correct out of order predictions for DEN, PHX ... some posts had them out of order and I just noticed this doing the seasonal max contest)

Four seasons contest update, Spring totals and points with winter points added _ note points structure amended with more forecasters now regularly entering, I have given the minimum of one point to all for winter 2019-20. _ points based on 10 for first, then 7 for second, on down to 1 point for 8th to end of the scoring, three contests must be entered to qualify. FORECASTER ___________ Winter points ____ Spring totals ____ Spring points _____ TOTAL POINTS RodneyS _________________________ 10 ____________ 1726 _____________ 6 ____________ 16 DonSutherland 1 ___________________5 ____________ 1899 ____________ 10 ____________ 15 hudsonvalley21 ____________________4 ____________ 1786 _____________ 7 ____________ 11 wxallannj _________________________ 7 _____________1557 _____________ 3 ____________ 10 ______ Consensus _________________ 5 ____________ 1653 _____________ 5 ____________ 10 BKViking __________________________ 6 ____________ 1545 _____________ 2 _____________ 8 Tom _______________________________3 ____________ 1598 _____________ 4 _____________ 7 RJay _______________________________1 ____________ 1643 _____________ 5 _____________ 6 Scotty Lightning ___________________ 2 ____________ 1458 _____________ 1 _____________ 3 wxdude64 _________________________ 1 ____________ 1469 _____________ 1 _____________ 2 Roger Smith _______________________ 1 ____________ 1473 _____________ 1 _____________ 2 Brian5671 _________________________ 1 ____________ 1532 _____________ 1 _____________ 2 _________ Normal __________________ 1 ____________ 1404 ______________1 _____________ 2 _________________________________________________________

Let's say seasonal max by June 15th, if you wish to enter just add them in.

We have relaxed the late penalties this year, so those won't cost you much at all guys. ... Will replace this with a table of entries later on, I think all the regular entrants have checked in.

Thanks for entries so far, will leave this open for more entries until June 15th and you can edit any entries you've made without notice, I won't be recording any predictions until I declare the contest closed. Since 95% of years have a max after that date and often a month or two after it, I can't see that people will gain much advantage but we'll see.

+1.3 __ +1.0 __ +0.5 __ +0.7 __ +1.0 __ +1.0 __ +2.5 __ +2.5 __ 0.0 102 __ 100 __ 101 ____ 99 ___ 103 ___ 107 ___ 107 __ 120 __ 96

< < < < < ........ <<<< ---- ====== Annual Scoring (Jan-May) 2020 ====== ---- >>>> .......> > > > > Numbers in red denote highest cumulative scores for each of nine locations. Numbers in bold black type denote highest subtotals for regions. FORECASTER ______________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__ c/e __DEN_PHX_SEA__west ___ TOTAL RodneyS ___________________370_ 320_344 __1034 __363_289_296 __948 __1982 __372_340_284_ 996 ____2978 Don Sutherland.1 ___________296 _296_308 __ 900 __351_270_304 __ 925 __1825 __ 272_318_296__886 ____2711 hudsonvalley21 ____________245 _246 _307 __ 798 __282 _266_297 __ 845 __1643 __301_401_279__981 ____2624 RJay ______________________ 314 _309_267 __ 890 __247 _252 _295 __ 794 __1684 __298_333_264__895 ____2579 wxallannj __________________268 _276 _299 __ 843 __255 _257 _318 __ 830 __1673 __282_350_266__898 ____2571 ___ Consensus _____________248 _234 _299 __ 781__261 _245_320 __ 826 __1607 __286_380_276__942 _____2549 Brian5671 _________________ 313 _301 _285 __ 899 __184 _284_301 __ 769 __1668 __187_338_312__837 ____2505 Tom _______________________ 248 _236 _264 __ 748__229 _284 _283__ 796 __1544 __ 263_380_261__904 ____2448 BKViking ___________________210 _208 _255 __ 673__290 _184 _302__ 776 __1449 __299_392_307_ 998 ____2447 Scotty Lightning ____________136 _118 _188 __ 442 __234 _235_350__ 819 __1261 __226 _374_326__926 ____2187 wxdude64 __________________168 _158 _191 __ 517__200 _215 _325__ 740 __1257 __ 308 _336_211__855 ____2112 ___ Normal _________________130 _108 _164 __ 402 __224 _214 _246__ 684 __1086 __218_348_ 306__872 ____1958 Roger Smith ________________194__185 _252 __ 631 __221 _311_244__ 776 __1407 __208 _178_134__520 ____1927 JakkelWx _ (3/5) ____________ 84 __ 75 _158 __ 317 __155 _ 95 _212 __ 462 __ 779 ___162 _220 _ 80__462 ____1241 yoda _ (2/5) _________________64 __ 43 __ 16 __ 123 __ 18_118 _125 __ 261 __ 384 __ 71 _161_ 70 __ 302 _____ 686 rclab _ (1/5) _________________05 __ 00 __ 00 __ 005 __ 00 _ 11 _ 24 __ 035 __ 040 ___ 56 _ 88 _ 66 __ 210 _____ 250 dwave _ (1/5) _______________ 72 __ 75 __ 48 __ 195 __ 12 _ 25 _ 10 __ 047 __ 242 ___ 16 _ 34 _ 00 __ 050 _____ 292 Maxim _ (1/5) _______________00 __ 00 __ 00 __ 000 __ 00 _ 20 _ 46 __ 066 __ 066 ___ 32 _ 50 _ 34 __ 116 _____ 182 Rhino16 _ (1/5) ______________00 __ 05 __ 20 __ 025 __ 00 _ 13 _ 30 __ 043 __ 068 ___ 04 _ 52 _ 54 __ 110 _____ 178 ============================================================================== Extreme forecast standings 36 of 45 forecasts so far have qualified for an extreme forecast award for the warmest forecast(s), 23 for warmest and 13 for coldest. FORECASTER ____ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _ Apr _ May etc ___ Standings to date Brian 5671 _______ 4-0 __ 1-0 __ 3-1 __ 1-0 __ 1-0 _______10 - 1 RodneyS _________ 2-0 __ 3-0 __ 0-1 __ ---- __ 2-0 ________ 7 - 1 Roger Smith ______ ---- __ ---- __ 1-0 __ 4-2 __ 1-0 ________ 6 - 2 RJay _____________ ---- __ ---- __ 3-0 __ ---- __ ---- _________ 3 - 0 Scotty Lightning __ 2-0 __ 0-0 __ ---- __ 1-0 __ ---- ________3 - 0 DonSutherland1___0-0 __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ ---- _______ 3 - 0 Normal ___________1-0 __ 0-1 __ ---- __ 1-0 __ ---- ________ 2 - 1 Tom _____________ 1-0 __ 0-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ 1-0 ________ 2 - 0 RClab ____________ 2-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- _________ 2 - 0 yoda _____________ 0-0 __ 1-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- _________1 - 0 wxdude64 ________ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ 1-0 __ ---- _________ 1 - 0 Jakkelwx _________ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ 1-0 _________ 1 - 0 ================================================================================ BEST SCORES -- Totals for January to May Forecasters are listed in same order as annual points standings. Ties are possible which is why some locations have more than two best scores, also, if Normal or consensus achieve a top score, the actual forecaster with high score gets an award also. FORECASTER ______________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA__west___Months RodneyS ___________________ 2 ___ 1 ___ 2 ____ 2 ____ 2 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 2 ____ 2 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 2 _____ 3 _ Jan, Feb, May DonSutherland.1 ____________0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 2 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 _____ 1 _ Mar, Apr hudsonvalley21 _____________0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 RJay _______________________ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 _____ 0 wxallannj ___________________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 ___ Consensus ______________0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 Brian5671 __________________ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 0 _____ 0 Tom ________________________0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 BKViking ___________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 _____ 0 Scotty Lightning ____________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 0 _____ 0 wxdude64 __________________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 _____ Normal _______________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 _____ 1 ___ Apr Roger Smith ________________ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 Jakkelwx ___________________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 RClab _______________________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 _____ 0

Two in May already -- has to at least tie a record? ... Seasonal forecast thread is open, simplified format this year, no big amount of work required, just your seasonal numbers.

Hello, hoping all of you are well or close approximations, I am doing fine but got way behind in my work on several fronts, so this is a bit late being posted. As usual we will be predicting anomalies for DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA in F deg relative to 1981-2010, and you can add your ideas about 2020 seasonal maxima for those locations for a mini-contest. I will post something in a couple of days, haven't had time to check out any guidance all week. It is turning hot here finally (after weeks of drizzly n/n dross). Take care and stay well. (hurricane forecast contest over in the tropical dead zone too)

Final scoring for May 2020 FORECASTER __________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH_cent_c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA__west __ TOTALS __ Anomalies _ (31d) ___--2.2 _--2.1 _--1.1 ___________ +0.8 _--1.2 _+1.1 ____ ___ _____ +2.5_ +4.1 _+3.3 RodneyS ________________ 90 _ 92 _ 98 __ 280 __ 36 _ 82 _ 90 _ 208 _ 488 __ 90 _ 86 _ 62 __ 238 _____ 726 Brian5671 _______________76 _ 88 _ 82 __ 246 __ 84 _ 56 _ 82 _ 222 _ 468 __ 90 _ 58 _ 74 __ 222 _____ 690 DonSutherland1 _________ 64 _ 78 _ 98 __ 240 __ 64 _ 66 _ 96 _ 226 _ 466 __ 72 _ 74 _ 54 __ 200 _____ 666 hudsonvalley21 _________ 70 _ 74 _ 96 __ 240 __ 60 _ 58 _ 94 _ 212 _ 452 __ 84 _ 68 _ 60 __ 212 _____ 664 wxdude64 _______________78 _ 84 _ 90 __ 252 __ 46 _ 60 _ 98 _ 204 _ 456 __ 96 _ 60 _ 42 __ 198 _____ 654 Tom ____________________ 88 _ 96 _ 84 __ 268 __ 40 _ 94 _ 88 _ 222 _ 490__ 60 _ 42 _ 52 __ 154 _____ 644 ___ Consensus ___________64 _ 70 _ 94 __ 228 __ 62 _ 58 _ 98 _ 218 _ 446 __ 78 _ 58 _ 54 __ 190 _____ 636 wxallannj ________________64 _ 68 _ 90 __ 222 __ 52 _ 60 _ 92 _ 204 _ 426 __ 74 _ 58 _ 64 __ 196 _____ 622 BKViking ________________ 46 _ 48 _ 74 __ 168 __ 94 _ 32 _100_ 226 _ 394__100 _58 _ 70 __ 228 _____ 622 RJay ____________________ 56 _ 58 _ 78 __ 192 __ 64 _ 56 _ 78 _ 198 _ 390 __ 80_ 48 _ 54 __ 182 _____ 572 JakkelWx ________________44 _ 54 _ 88 __ 186 __ 98 _ 36 _ 90 _ 224 _ 410 __ 72 _ 46 _ 24 __ 142 _____ 552 Scotty Lightning _________ 36 _ 48 _ 78 __ 162 __ 84 _ 56 _ 92 _ 232 _ 394 __ 50 _ 38 _ 54 __ 142 _____ 536 ___ Normal ______________ 56 _ 58 _ 78 __ 192 __ 84 _ 76 _ 78 _ 238 _ 430 __ 50 _ 18 _ 34 __ 102 _____ 532 Roger Smith _____________ 62 _ 68 _ 94 __ 224 __ 64 _ 96 _ 64 _ 224 _ 448 __ 10 _ 22 _ 34 __ 066 _____ 514 ___________________________________________________________ Extreme forecast report (provisional) _ 6 of 9 currently qualify (3 cold, 3 warm) DCA _ RodneyS (coldest forecast -1.7) has a win here with the outcome -2.2. NYC _ Tom (coldest forecast -1.9) has a win as the outcome was -2.1. BOS _ No extreme forecast projected at -1.1, high score going to tied fourth lowest forecasts. ORD _ Jakkelwx has a win with warmest forecast (+0.7) as ORD settled at +0.8. ATL _ Roger Smith (coldest forecast -1.0) has a win with the final value -1.2. IAH _ No extreme forecast projected, anomaly (+1.1) is near consensus. DEN _ No extreme forecast as DEN finished equal to third warmest forecast (+2.5) and would have qualified at +2.8. RodneyS, Brian5671 would have shared a win. For a moment I considered a shared loss but extreme forecast is only assessed when high score is either extreme or second extreme, had they not been tied (+3.0) this would be more evident. PHX _ RodneyS (warmest forecast +3.4) will win here as PHX at +4.1 or higher. This high score also removed scoring boost protection from the field, so not just a win but like a no-hitter. The second highest forecast (DonS) was +2.8 which also scored well. Hudsonvalley21 had +2.5. SEA _ Brian5671 (warmest forecast +2.0) has a win as the final value is +3.3 despite a cool finish (month had been close to +4.0 earlier). This was the only location where we failed to break 80 for top score.

Prince Frederick laid down his crown and his ermine robes, and wandered off to who knows where, promising to return next winter. That could be 2038 the way things were going the past two so-called winters. Meanwhile he asked me to defend the realm (which I won't due to a nasty combination of inability and lack of funding) and to start a summer heat forecast contest, which I think is the only real reason for this post. Your challenge, should you choose to accept it, is to predict the highest temperatures to be observed at each of (you guessed it) BWI, DCA, IAD and SLC just kidding RIC. You can add SLC if you want, choose any number between 99 and 101 and you'll be right. Wonderful scenery, non-challenging climate they have round Utah, I would go and tell you more but they won't let me in because of some cough going around. Anyway, here's my opening salvo in this contest, torn between the idea that the cold spell in May guarantees a scorcher, or just possibly is a sign of some long awaited return to the climate of the 1850s. Fat chance of that, so I will go with BWI _ 103 DCA _ 103 IAD _ 101 RIC _ 102 and make the bold prediction that I will not be dead last, or dead, or last, but ya never know. The real deadline is not T384 but whenever we have a nice turnout and I spot anything on the model runs that looks like potential action in this contest. Let's say it won't close before June 10th end of day, but could go a few days past that. And once again I for one (insert verb of choice) my Mid-Atl overlords from my distant outpost beyond the hills. Get a 10% discount by mentioning "lack of contrails" in your post.

Here's the annual "hurricane forecast contest" with a simplified format compared to other recent years, just the seasonal count is required this year, no monthly details. You can add your thoughts about that of course. The contest remains open to mid-June as the June monthly count won't be all that big a deal-breaker. Keep in mind that with Arthur's brief reign of slight disruption the count is already 1/0/0. My entry will be 20/13/7 so quite an active year and I suspect the main focus of activity may be the east coast for a change. That's not to say the usual areas of activity won't see their fair share, but I am expecting some fairly strong storms to develop in the Atlantic near the Carolinas possibly impacting the mid-Atlantic states more often than we've seen in several years. Post your forecasts and discussions ...

(Possibly) Final report on Snowfall contest While some chance remains for further snowfalls at DEN, this could be the final report too ... see comments at bottom for potential for any changes in the standings shown in part two of these tables (part one being your forecasts). FORECASTER _________________DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ DTW _ BUF____ DEN _ SEA _ BTV ___ Snowfall to date (May 15) ___ 0.6 __ 4.8 _ 15.8 ___ 34.8 __43.7 _ 69.2 ___ 57.6 __ 0.7 _ 69.7 Tom __________________________ 27.6 _ 48.1 _ 59.8 ___ 44.5 _ 39.8 _ 97.6 ___ 68.6 __ 4.8 _ 85.1 wxallannj _____________________ 22.4 _ 33.5 _ 44.7 ___ 38,9 _ 38.8 _ 69.6 ___ 41.3 __ 7.2 _ 79.4 wxdude64 ____________________ 20.6 _ 42.5 _ 54.1 ___ 50.6 _ 52.7 _100.9 ___ 69.8 __ 9.6 _ 97.4 BKViking ______________________19.0 _ 36.0 _ 51.0 ___ 42.0 _ 29.0 _ 84.0 ___ 55.0 __ 8.0 _ 77.0 hudsonvalley21 _______________ 15.8 _ 31.2 _ 47.7 ___ 42.2 _ 52.6 _ 91.3 ___ 61.1 __10.4 _ 88.8 Roger Smith __________________ 15.5 _ 38.5 _ 55.8 ___ 60.5 _ 60.2 _102.5 ___109.7__ 7.5 _110.5 RodneyS ______________________14.4 _ 25.1 _ 40.0 ___ 35.0 _ 38.0 _100.0 ___ 80.0 __ 4.0 _ 88.0 Scotty Lightning _______________12.0 _ 24.0 _ 36.0 ___ 48.0 _ 67.0 _105.0 ___45.0 __14.0 _ 90.0 DonSutherland1 _______________10.0 _ 23.5 _ 36.0 ___ 30.0 _ 35.0 _110.0 ___ 83.0 __ 6.5 _ 90.0 ___ consensus (mean) _________ 17.5 _ 33.6 _ 47.2 ____ 44.1 _ 45.9 __95.7 ___ 68.2 __ 8.0 _ 94.0 ___ % to date ___________________ 3.5 __ 14 ___ 34 ______ 79 ___ 96 ___ 73 _____ 84 ___ 8.7 __ 75 _________________________________________________________________________________________________ It is quite unusual, I believe, for both DCA and SEA to have an essentially snowless winter, usually it would be one but not the other. Current scoring for the snowfall contest Unless shown in red, all these departures are errors on the higher side, and can be reduced if any further snowfall occurs at any locations (now only marginally possible for DEN and perhaps the inland northeast). FORECASTER _________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ DTW _ BUF __ DEN _ SEA _ BTV ____ TOTAL wxallannj _____________________ 21.8 _ 28.7 _ 28.9 ____ 4.1 __ 4.9 __ 0.4 ___ 16.3 __ 6.5 __ 9.7 ___ 121.3 BKViking ______________________18.4 _ 31.2 _ 35.2 ____ 7.2 __14.7 _ 14.8 ____2.6 __ 7.3 __ 7.3 ___ 138.7 RodneyS ______________________13.8 _ 20.3 _ 24.2 ____ 0.2 __ 5.7 _ 30.8 ____ 22.4 __3.3 _ 18.3 ___ 139.0 hudsonvalley21 _______________ 15.2 _ 26.4 _ 31.9 ____ 7.4 __ 8.9 _ 22.1 _____3.5 __ 9.7 _ 19.1 ___ 144.2 DonSutherland1 ________________9.4 _ 18.7 _ 20.2 ____ 4.8 __ 8.7 __ 40.8 ___ 25.4 __ 5.8 _ 20.3 ___ 154.1 ___ consensus (mean) _________ 16.9 _ 28.8 _ 31.4 _____ 9.3 __ 2.2 __26.5 ____ 10.6 __ 7.3 _ 24.3 ___ 157.3 Scotty Lightning _______________11.4 _ 19.2 _ 20.2 ___ 13.2 _ 23.3 _ 35.8 ____12.6__13.3 _ 20.3 ___ 169.3 Tom __________________________ 27.0 _ 43.3 _ 44.0 ____ 9.7 __ 3.9 _ 28.4 ____ 11.0 __ 4.1 _ 15.4 ___ 186.8 wxdude64 ____________________ 20.0 _ 37.7 _ 38.3 ___ 15.8 __ 9.0 _ 31.7 ___ 12.2 __ 8.9 _ 27.7 ___ 201.3 Roger Smith __________________ 14.9 _ 33.7 _ 40.0 ___ 25.7 _ 16.5 _ 34.3 ____ 52.1__ 6.8 _ 40.8 ___ 263.8 __________________________________________________________________________________ (Apr 1st) _ Standings are subject to change, especially if DEN picks up more snow, as the contest leader (wxallannj) will be accumulating error with additional DEN snowfall, and second place BKV has only 1.1" left before starting to do the same; third and fourth place Rodney and DonSutherland1 have some snow left to give -- Rodney can overtake the leader if 12" or more should fall at DEN. Otherwise it would appear that a few more inches at say BTV or ORD-DTW would make no great difference to the outcome. So we await further developments at DEN. (Apr 15th) _ DEN has picked up 1.8" this month, BUF 0.9" and DTW 0.2" -- RodneyS now needs DEN snowfall of 10.5" although any further snow at DTW adds a bit to the task. (May 4th) _ ORD and DTW both added 4.7" since last report. For the three leaders, that generally meant no significant change as they had enough to absorb that addition at ORD and were already accumulating for DTW (wxallannj gained slightly as he was not quite over the limit for DTW.) The Midwest snow did move hudsonvalley21 past DonSutherland1 in the contest standings. Since DEN has added only 1.9" since last report above, given the above slight differential, that reduces the amount needed by RodneyS now to 8.8" to catch wxallannj. RodneyS has moved to within 0.3" of second place BKV who is also now accumulating error points at DEN, so a further 0.2" would change those positions. BUF added 1.9", BOS 0.7" and BTV 0.1" -- these reduced all forecaster total errors equally. (May 16th) _ Since the last report, DTW added 0.5" BUF 0.3" and BTV 0.1" (NYC trace !) ... these amounts leave the contest in the same situation awaiting any further snow which now is almost certain to be confined to DEN (if any falls, the current model run has no really strong indications of any). I will be posting this summary in the May thread and any further edits or comments will be found there.

As I posted elsewhere on the forum, have been updating the Toronto (city) weather records and noted that the first record low minimum in May since 1923 was obtained on the 9th with 28 F (previous record 29 F in 1850). The maximum of 42 F on the 8th failed to beat the mark set in 1947 (41 F) and on the 9th 44 F missed the 1966 record by 1 deg also. The location saw six consecutive days with lowest temperatures since 1967 (an arbitrary division in my research data created by dates in a publication I used to generate the daily records against which I have checked all available internet historical data since then). The air temperatures of -0.4 (11th) and 0.0 (12th) represent latest of season for converted to 31F and 32F since 1924 (for the 31F with 30 on 21st) and 1936 (for the 32F on 16th). Previous to that the frost season extends later and later with the smaller urban heat island in place, and eventually reaches its latest observation of June 10 in 1842 (a reading of 28F which is both the latest 32 or colder, and tied for June extreme with an earlier date in 1843). There was a reading of 34 F on May 24, 1956, and a report of snow at YYZ on night of May 25 to 26 1961. That snow failed to reach the downtown location (back in a time when this was a first order continually observing site) and the morning low was 37 F. Going back to early June 1945 there were snow flurries reported at Toronto downtown, only the second occasion with June traces of snow (the other being 1859). The latest 1.0" snowfall in the records was on 9th in 1923 (1.3"), and the latest 0.5" on 12th in 1966, with 0.2" on 15th of 1959 and the latest measurable amount 0.1" on 16th of 1884. After that daily records are all traces only and are quite infrequent. So this cold spell seems to be a benchmark event. I would be grateful for any thoughts about snow reports as my only guide for that now is snow depth reporting, the previous station listing both rain and snow amounts downtown ended operations in 2017. I assume that most of the 1.0 mm precip on May 8 was snow downtown, how about with the Sunday night into Monday event? That seemed more like either cold rain or melting snow at the location? Both 1966 and 1967 were very backward springs with unusually late leaf foliation, as I recall from reading my own high school era weather station west of Toronto, the trees were not fully in leaf until around the end of May those two years. I can also remember running at a track meet in Guelph ON in falling wet snow some time around the 10th of May in 1967, so if you had to choose one of those two summers to follow, I would say 1966 (a hot, dry summer) as opposed to 1967 (June was very warm and humid with excessive rainfalls, the rest of the summer rather cool). It was quite a contrast to the previous two years when May (1964,65) had well above normal temperatures and in both of those the weather turned quite chilly at the end of May into early June.

Updated anomaly tracker (look down way down) ... ____________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA _____________ (8d) __________ --3.4 _ --2.0 _ +0.3 __ --3.4 _ --1.5 _ +3.3 ___ +2.2 _ +7.9 _ +2.1 ____________ (15d) __________ --5.5 _ --4.5 _ --2.6 __ --3.9 _ --3.3 _ +1.0 ___ +0.3 _ +6.0 _ +5.0 ____________ (22d) __________ --4.4 _ --3.5 _ --2.3 __ --2.6 _ --2.5 _ +1.5 ___ +2.4 _ +3.8 _ +3.6 ____________ (p15d) ________ --5.0 _ --5.0 _ --4.0 __ --6.0 _ --3.0 _ +1.5 ___ +0.5 _ +5.0 _ +1.5 ____________ (p21d) ________ --3.5 _ --3.0 _ --2.0 __ --2.5 _ --2.0 _ +0.7 ____ 0.0 _ +3.5 _ +3.5 ____________ (p25d) ________ --3.0 _ --3.0 _ --3.0 __ --4.0 _ --2.5 _ +1.0 ____ 0.0 _ +3.5 _ +0.5 _16th_______ (p31d) ________--2.0 _ --2.0 _ --1.5 __ --1.5 _ --1.0 _ +0.5 ____ 0.0 _ +2.5 _ +2.5 _23rd_______ (p31d) ________ --3.0 _ --2.0 _ --1.0 __ --1.5 _ --1.5 _ +0.5 ___ +1.5_ +3.5 _ +3.0 _30th ______ (p 31 d) ________ --2.0 _--2.0 _ --1.0 __ +1.0 _--1.5 _ +0.5 ___ +2.5_ +3.5 _ +3.0 Final anomalies _____________--2.2 _--2.1 _ --1.1 __ +0.8_--1.2 _+1.1 ___+2.5 _+4.1 _+3.3 _(9th) _ Turning exceptionally cold in eastern regions with near record daytime cold reported today in Midwest, and a rain-snow mix from a clipper expected within a day or two, so the current falling anomalies will likely bottom out around -6 later this week then recover slightly by 15th. The second half of the month does not look much warmer relative to normal. West has been sizzling and while DEN likely to find itself in a frontal zone next week, warmth will continue in the southwest. Snowfall contest report was updated in the March thread, I will post it over here mid-week following any updates for ORD, DTW, BUF and BTV that may occur (nothing noted since May 4th update yet). (16th) _ As expected the anomalies dropped rapidly in eastern and central regions with a rebound on the 15th, but the pattern this coming week looks rather cool after the weekend and negatives may be preserved right to the end of the month in reduced form. The west will remain on the warm side but DEN is close enough to the jet stream boundary that I am holding the projection near normal with lots of variation expected. While SEA has been running quite warm, inland at my location we are probably just a slight amount above normal after 15 days. We only had one day here that exceeded 25 C (a week ago Saturday) and otherwise a lot of near normal temperatures recently. (23rd) _ Anomalies have remained unusually low in the east, not sure where the month ranks at U.S. locations but at Toronto it could be coldest May since 1997 or even 1967. In the west it has been generally quite warm to hot at times, and looks to remain that way (Denver will have some mixed results). Have updated the end of month provisionals and will post some preliminary scoring estimates based on those. No changes to snowfall anywhere since last report. DEN running out of time but season goes to June 30th. (30th) _ Most of the provisionals are doing okay but ORD has run warmer than expected and has been adjusted. Scoring for ORD will be adjusted in the provisional scoring. DCA and DEN also slightly adjusted. (June 1st) _ Final anomalies are now all posted overnight and scoring adjusted. Final values are color coded.

Table of forecasts for May 2020 FORECASTER ___________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA Scotty Lightning _________+1.0 _+0.5 __0.0 ___ 0.0 _+1.0 _+1.5 ____ 0.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 JakkelWx _______________ +0.6 _+0.2 _--0.5 __ +0.7 _+2.0 _+0.6 __ +1.1 _+1.4 _--0.5 BKViking ________________+0.5 _+0.5 _+0.2 __ +0.5 _+2.2 _+1.1 __ +2.5 _+2.0 _+1.8 ___ Normal ______________ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 RJay ____________________ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ___--1.0 _+1.0 __ 0.0 __ +1.5 _+1.5 _+1.0 Roger Smith ____________ --0.3 _--0.5 _--0.8 __ --1.0 _--1.0 _--0.7 __ --2.0 _+0.2 __0.0 wxallannj _______________ --0.4 _--0.5 _--0.6 __ --1.6 _+0.8 _+0.7 __ +1.2 _+2.0 _+1.5 ___ Consensus __________ --0.4 _--0.6 _--0.8 __ --1.1 _+0.9 _+1.0 __ +1.4 _+2.0 _+1.0 DonSutherland1 ________ --0.4 _--1.0 _--1.2 __ --1.0 _ +0.5 _+0.9 __ +1.1 _+2.8 _+1.0 hudsonvalley21 _________ --0.7 _--0.8 _--0.9 __ --1.2 _+0.9 _+1.4 __ +1.7 _+2.5 _+1.3 Brian5671 ______________ --1.0 _--1.5 _--2.0 ___ 0.0 _+1.0 _+2.0 __ +3.0 _+2.0 _+2.0 wxdude64 ______________ --1.1 _--1.3 _--1.6 __ --1.9 _+0.8 _+1.2 __ +2.3 _+2.1 _+0.4 Tom ____________________--1.6 _--1.9 _--1.9 __ --2.2 _--0.9 _+0.5 __ +0.5 _+1.2 _+0.9 RodneyS ________________--1.7 _--1.7 _--1.2 __ --2.4 _--0.3 _+1.6 __ +3.0 _+3.4 _+1.4 ___________________________________________________________ Very pleased not to have any late penalties this month ... consensus is the median of twelve forecasts, or the mean of sixth and seventh ranked forecast for each location (not including Normal). Color codes show the warmest and coldest forecasts for each location. Normal is colder for PHX than all forecasts. In a couple of days I will have an update on the snowfall contest placed in this thread; the most recent update about three weeks ago was edited into a post in the March thread. There has been a bit of snow\ at DEN since then.