Roger Smith

<<< === --- CONTEST FINAL RESULTS --- === >>> Congrats to cheese007 with a close win over Torch Tiger (2nd) and Hotair (3rd) FORECASTER _____________NS _ Hur _ Maj _ Score deductions __ TOTAL SCORE Outcome ___________________14 __ 8 __ 2 cheese007 __________________15 __ 7 __ 2 _____ -0.5 _ -1.0 __ 0.0 __ 98.5 (1) Torch Tiger _________________ 16 __ 8 __ 3 _____ -1.5 __ 0.0 _ -1.0 __ 97.5 (2) Hotair _______________________13 __ 6 __ 2 ______-0.5 _ -3.0 __ 0.0 __ 96.5 (3) cnimbus ____________________ 17 __ 7 __ 3 _____ -3.0 _ -1.0 _ -1.0 __ 95.0 (4) tplbge ______________________ 17 __ 6 __ 3 _____ -3.0 _ -3.0 _ -1.0 ___93.0 (5) snowlover2 _________________ 18 __ 8 __ 3 _____ -5.0 __ 0.0 _ -1.0 ___ 94.0 (6) "Expert consensus" _________18 __ 8 __ 4 _____ -5.0 __ 0.0 _ -3.0 ___ 92.0 (7) jaxjagman __________________ 18 __ 9 __ 4 _____ -5.0 _ -1.0 _ -3.0 ___ 91.0 (7) NCForecaster89 ____________19 __ 8 __ 4 _____ -7.5 __ 0.0 _ -3.0 ___ 89.5 (8) Wannabehippie ____________ 19 __10 __ 3 _____ -7.5 _ -3.0 _ -1.0 ____ 88.5 (9) ___ Contest mean __________ 19 __ 9 __ 4 _____ -7.5 _ -1.0 _ -3.0 ____ 88.5 (9) GaWx _______________________18 __ 9 __ 5 _____ -5.0 _ -1.0 _ -6.0 ___ 88.0 (t10) StormchaserChuck! ________ 17 __ 11 __ 4 _____ -3.0 _ -6.0_ -3.0 __ 88.0 (t10) Cat Lady ___________________20 __ 9 __ 3 ____ -10.5 _ -1.0 _ -1.0 ___ 87.5 (12) ineedsnow __________________19 __ 8 __ 5 _____ -7.5 __ 0.0 _ -6.0 ___ 86.5 (13) Roger Smith _______________ 20 __10 __ 3 ____ -10.5 _ -3.0 _ -1.0 ___ 85.5 (14) DonSutherland1 ____________20 __ 9 __ 5 ____ -10.5 _ -1.0 _ -6.0 ___ 82.5 (15) IntenseWind002 ___________ 21 ___9 __ 4 ____ -14.0 _ -1.0 _ -3.0 ___ 82.0 (16) Ed Snow & Hurricane Fan ___9 __ 4 __ 1 ______ -7.5 _-10.0 _ -1.0 ___ 81.5 (17) Daniel Boone _______________19 __ 11 __ 5 _____ -7.5 _ -6.0 _-6.0 ___ 80.5 (t18) yotaman ___________________ 20 __11 __ 4 ____ -10.5 _ -6.0 _ -3.0 ___ 80.5 (t18) LakeNormanStormin _______21 __ 10 __ 4 ____-14.0 _ -3.0 _ -3.0 ___ 80.0 (20) WxWatcher007 ____________ 21 __ 10 __ 5 ____-14.0 _ -3.0 _ -6.0 ___ 77.0 (t21) Prospero ___________________21 __ 11 __ 4 ____ -14.0 _ -6.0 _ -3.0 ___ 77.0 (t21) NorthHillsWx _______________23 __ 9 __ 4 ____ -22.5 _ -1.0 _ -3.0 ____73.5 (23) wxdude64 _________________ 22 __10 __ 5 ____ -18.0 _ -3.0 _ -6.0 ___ 73.0 (t24) Yoda _______________________21 __ 10 __ 6 ____-14.0 _ -3.0 _-10.0 ___ 73.0 (t24) Runman292 ________________20 __12 __ 6 ____ -10.5 _-10.0 _-10.0 ___69.5 (26) SnowenOutThere __________ 23 __11 __ 4 ____ -22.5 _ -6.0 _ -3.0 ___ 68.5 (27) RJay _______________________ 22 __12 __ 5 ____ -18.0 _-10.0 _ -6.0 ___ 66.0 (28) ColdRainLover _____________ 23 __11 __ 5 ____ -22.5 _ -6.0 _ -6.0 ___ 65.5 (29) cptcatz ____________________ 24 __13 __ 6 ____ -27.5 _-15.0 _-10.0 __ 47.5 (30) Brentrich ___________________27 __11 __ 7 ____ -45.5 _ -6.0 _ -15.0 __ 33.5 (31) ____________________________________ Ranks above assigned to non-forecasters do not influence ranks of lower scoring forecasters.

Scoring for December 2022 * scores for Tom include 1 pt late penalty FORECASTER __________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent _ c/e ___DEN_PHX_SEA__west ____ TOTAL __ anomalies __________ -1.5 _-0.6 __+1.6 __ __ __-1.4 __+0.2 _+1.7 ____ ___ ____ -1.9 _-0.3 _-3.2 ____ RodneyS _______________ 90 __ 92 __ 72 __ 254 __ 98 __ 90 __ 86 __ 274 _ 528 __ 34 __ 86 __ 92 __212 ____ 740 ___ Consensus __________88 __ 88 __ 46 __ 222 __ 86 __ 84 __ 96 __ 266 _ 488 __ 58 __ 76 __ 78 __ 212 ____ 700 hudsonvalley21 ________ 76 __ 86 __ 44 __ 206 __ 86 __ 82 __100__ 268_ 474 __ 56 __ 84 __ 80 __ 220 ____ 694 so_whats_happening __ 88 __ 88 __ 38 __ 214 __100__ 84 __ 98 __ 282 _ 496 __90 __ 70 __ 36 __ 196 ____ 692 RJay ___________________ 98 __ 82 __ 38 __ 218 __ 78 __ 96 __ 86 __ 260 _ 478 __ 62 __ 74 __ 76 __ 212 ____ 690 BKViking _______________100__ 82 __ 42 __ 224 __ 98 __ 88 __ 82 __ 268 _ 492 __ 78 __ 74 __ 42 __ 194 ____ 686 wxallannj ______________ 84 __ 92 __ 44 __ 220 __ 82 __ 84 __ 94 __ 260 _ 480 __ 52 __ 74 __ 66 __ 192 ____ 672 DonSutherland1 ________84 __ 92 __ 52 __ 228 __ 42 __ 88 __ 86 __ 216 _ 444 __ 52 __ 78 __ 80 __ 210 ____ 654 ___ Normal _____________ 68 __ 88 __ 68 __ 224 __ 72 __ 96 __ 66 __ 234_ 458 __ 62 __ 94 __ 36 __ 192 ____ 650 Roger Smith ___________ 86 __100 __66 __ 252 __ 64 __ 88 __ 86 __ 238_ 490 __ 48 __ 40 __ 68 __ 156 ____ 646 wxdude64 _____________ 90 __ 80 __ 46 __ 216 __ 56 __ 82 __100__ 238 _ 454 __ 40 __ 72 __ 80 __ 192 ____ 646 Tom ____ (-1%) _________ 97*__ 73*__ 38 __ 208 __ 85*__85*__69*__239 _ 447 __ 83*__ 81*__ 34 __ 198 ____ 645 George001 ____________ 90 __ 66 __ 18 ___ 196 __ 66 __ 88 __ 92 __ 246 _ 442 __ 38 __ 30 __ 72 __ 142 ____ 584 Scotty Lightning _______ 48 __ 68 __ 88 __ 204 __ 52 __ 64 __ 94 __ 210 _ 414 __ 42 __ 64 __ 16 __ 122 ____ 536 __________________________________________ EXTREME FORECAST REPORT BOS (+1.0) is a win for Scotty Lightning (+1.0) with highest forecast. DEN (-1.9) is a loss for Roger Smith (-4.5) within the regular forecast group, and also a loss for George001 (-5.0), with the win going to so_whats_happening (-1.4). PHX (-0.3) is also a loss for Roger Smith and George001 with the win going to RodneyS (+0.4) and Normal (0.0). ___________________________ ======================= (actual forecasts) FORECASTER __________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA Scotty Lightning _______+1.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 __ +1.0 _+2.0 _ +2.0 __ +1.0 _+1.5 _+1.0 Normal _________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 _ 0.0 _ 0.0 hudsonvalley21 ________ -0.4 __-1.3 __-1.2 __ -2.1 __+1.1 _ +1.7 ___+0.3 _+0.5 _-2.2 DonSutherland1 _______ -0.8 __-1.0 __-0.8 __ -4.3 _ +0.8 _+1.0 __ +0.5 _+0.8 _-4.2 wxallannj ______________ -0.8 __-1.0 __-1.2 ___-0.5 _ +1.0 _+2.0 __ +0.5 _+1.0 _-1.5 Roger Smith ___________ -0.9 __-0.6 __-0.1 __-3.2 __-0.4 _+1.0 ___-4.5 _-3.3 _-4.8 so_whats_happening __ -1.0 __-1.2 __-1.5 ___-1.4 _ +1.0 _ +1.8 __ -1.4 _+1.2 __ 0.0 Consensus _____________-1.0 _ -1.2 __ -1.1 ___ -2.1 _ +1.0 _+1.5 __ +0.2 _+0.9 _-2.1 RodneyS _______________ -1.1 __-0.2 __+0.2 __-1.3 __-0.3 _+2.4 __ +1.4 _+0.4 _-2.8 RJay ___________________ -1.5 __-1.5 __-1.5 __ -2.5 __ 0.0 _ +1.0 ____ 0.0 _+1.0 _-2.0 BKViking _______________-1.6 __-1.5 __-1.3 ___-1.3 _ +0.8 _ +0.8 __ -0.8 _+1.0 _-0.3 Tom ____ (-1%) _________-1.8 __-1.9 __-1.5 __ -2.1 __ -0.5 _ +0.2 ___ -1.1 _+0.6 _+0.1 wxdude64 _____________-1.9 __-1.6 __-1.1 ___-3.6 __+1.1 _ +1.7 ___ +1.1 _ +1.1 _ -4.2 George001 ____________-1.9 _ -2.3 __-2.5 __ -3.1 __+0.8 _+1.3 ___ -5.0 _-3.8 _-4.6

If NYC was 37.1 to the 27th then it could get as high as 38.2 for the monthly mean which is still below the 1991-2020 normal but ranks t58 out of the 154 Decembers in the records. 38.3 would rank t52nd and 38.4 t48th, so there have been quite a few Decembers in this range. Without the four cold days 24th-27th the average of the rest of the month (assuming it warms up as expected) would be close to 40.0 F which ranks t24th. Of course the other way of looking at it is that an average of 20.0 or lower would be much colder than any December (1876 average was 24.9, 1917 was 25.0), but probably more to the point, one of the colder four day intervals in December for quite some time. It has also been quite a wet month, approaching 5.7 to 6.0" of rain by the end of the month possibly. So basically we could say it has been a mild, wet month with a cold interval late 23rd fading out by 27th. The year looks like it will finish up either t14 or t17 with such recent years as 2001, 2002, 2011, 2017. Other years not far from it include 13th place 1999 and 19th place 1973, 20th place 1983. It will rank a bit warmer than 2018 and 2019, and cooler than 2020 or 2021.

Thanks, any help in publicizing the contest is welcome but we certainly tried that on a large scale a few years ago with the format of an inter-forum challenge but I think most of the sub-forums only managed to produce one or two entrants and eventually they were blown away by both the skill and numbers of the NYC and MA forums. I was basically it west of the Mississippi. New England and Great Lakes forums would probably be more interested in just local forecast challenges (from what I've seen). If it were not for the NYC turnout this contest likely would have gone extinct a while ago. ... as to help with the actual work involved, I am fine with that, you would be amazed and perhaps depressed if you saw how fast I can type this line DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA (under ten seconds). Also the word FORECASTER I can do without looking down.

We will press on in the relentless quest for error-free long-range forecasting ... we invite you to join our hardy group for this new contest year. The challenge is to predict the temperature anomalies (relative to 1991-2020) for nine locations: __ DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA to the nearest 0.1 F deg. Scores are basically 100 minus 2x error in 0.1 deg, unless no forecaster's raw score is 60 or higher, at which point, we award progressive scores fitted to the range of 0-60 from the forecasts. Usually the deadline is 06z the first day of the month, but in January the tradition is to welcome in new forecasters and waive the late penalty until the 3rd (12z) so as long as you're entered before that, no late penalty. Good luck and thanks for entering.

I know you've posted stats before but can you perhaps place in context of past events where this ranks? Also if the data only go back a certain number of years would there be any longer historical data sources to identify extremes from say the cold decades of the 19th century? I suppose that back then, while there may have been more frequent opportunities for lake effect, Lake Erie rarely stayed as warm as it has been for this event, so that might balance out. I have been searching largely in vain for any reliable lake effect measurements in Ontario snow belts from that era. One of the few events that might rival this one but in a different location was in late January of 1971 in the Georgian Bay snow belt, I think conditions were probably similar in terms of frigid temperatures and strong winds combined with heavy snowfalls. That wind direction may have brought heavy squalls to western NY but perhaps a bit further south, also Jan 1971 had been a cold month and Lake Erie might have been largely frozen. Your detailed chronicles of these 2022 snow events will be a valuable historical resource years from now, great job. (I have 20" of snow here and it is more than enough, the one difference is that ours stays on the ground all winter, no 70 deg New Years in our future)

I didn't see the post in question, but nobody's rooting for death or destruction, we can however share in the awe at the power of nature and I hope the political climate doesn't overly modulate this into yet another thing we're not allowed to do or think because of any (faint signal at most) human contribution to these weather events, which are not new, you can read about the hardships faced by settlers in the Midwest in February and March of 1843 after a storm of perhaps equal severity (on a slightly different trajectory) that crossed the lower Great Lakes on Jan 31. ... Also I feel that weather forums have an additional impact to the official sources of information and warnings about these storms, and can assist in preparing the public for the challenges of approaching severe weather events. To know that something is coming has to be of some value in preventing death and injury, even if perhaps there is little we can do to reduce damage (although in advance of a strong windstorm or a flood, people can for example remove loose objects from their property, and park their cars in strategic locations less likely to experience damage). It's interesting that there was perhaps a similar refusal to deal with the reality of the tornado as a weather phenomenon, wasn't it the case that before about 1945, the tornado was considered some sort of taboo word? I'm not sure where I picked up that impression or if there's any truth to it. -------------------- I was actually coming in to post a more mundane factoid, while updating my files I noticed that a daily rainfall record (1.83") had been set on Dec 23rd, replacing 1.61" from 1913. That took 1913 from 8 to 7 records but still in second place to 1983, and inflated the modest total of 2022 to just two (which is the most likely outcome for any given year out of 154 years). The previous record was back in July. Also new to the books, a record high minimum of 54 on Dec 7th edged past the tie shared by 1951, 1956 at 53F. All daily records and discussions of yearly record events can be found in a thread I have in the climate change forum here, it deals first with Toronto's 182 year record, then switches over to NYC, so if you happen to go there, the NYC material starts around the end of page one of the thread. My NYC data base is just one of the many benefits we all derive from the work and the insights of Don Sutherland. The Toronto data base can only be blamed on me, however.

Thanks, I suppose when we went from the three eastern locations to the larger grid, it was a larger commitment of time and perhaps that's the main or even only reason why we've seen the numbers decline. Anyway, it's all good if the current participants wish to continue.

Managed to find a list of co-op snowfall reports, the highest I spotted in MI was at a place called Mancelona which is a few miles northeast of TVC, and they report 26 inches with a base of 24" ... GRR had reported a total of about 17 inches 22nd-24th so far.

Yesterday as reported in the storm thread, NYC set a new record of 50 F deg for daily range (max 58, min 8). Today another record is now confirmed. The high of 15 at NYC establishes a new record temperature fall for maximum dailies, day to day as shown below: _ Rank ___ Dates _______________ From _ To ___ diff _ 01 ____ 2022 Dec 23-24 ______ 58 __ 15 ____-43 _ 02 _____1918 Feb 20-21 ________59 __ 18 ____-41 _ 03 ____ 1921 Mar 28-29 _______82 __ 42 ___ -40 _ 04 ____ 1927 Dec 8 - 9 ________65 __ 26 ___ -39 _ 05 ____ 1915 Apr 26-27 _______ 92 __ 54 ___ -38 _t06 ____ 1896 Feb 16-17 _______ 44 ___ 7 ___ -37 _t06 ____ 1978 Jan 9-10 ________ 58 __ 21 ___ -37 _t06 ____ 2003 Apr 16-17 _______ 88 __ 51 ___ -37 _t09 ____ 1876 Jan 10-11 ________60 __ 24 ___ -36 _t09 ____ 1911 Nov 12-13 ________69 __ 33 ___ -36 _t09 ____ 1933 Feb 8 - 9 ________ 60 __ 24 ___ -36 _t09 ____ 1970 Feb 3 - 4 _________56 __ 20 ___ -36 _t09 ____ 2014 Jan 6 - 7 ________ 55 __ 19 ____ -36 _t14 ____ 1890 Feb 5 - 6 ________ 68 __ 33 ____ -35 _t14 ___1898 Dec 31-1899 Jan 1_ 53 __ 18 ____ -35 _t14 ____ 1918 Jan 12-13 _________53 __ 18 ____ -35 _t14 ____ 1934 Mar 18-19 ________71 __ 36 ____ -35 _t14 ____ 1939 Apr 25-26 _______ 86 __ 51 ____ -35 _t14 ____ 1959 Mar 21-22 _______ 69 __ 34 ____ -35 ____________________________________________ The largest differential in the opposite direction was 34 F deg, set on these four occasions: * Dec 22-23 1871 rose from max 21 to 55 * Feb 5-6 1918 rose from max 4 to 38 * Mar 15-16 1935 rose from max 43 to 77 * Apr 11-12 1977 rose from max 56 to 90 Since the last of those, 33 deg is the highest day to day rise, achieved Apr 8-9 2001 (45 to 78). The only previous 33 deg rise was Apr 6-7 1929 (56 to 89). So these all told are the top six in the upward direction.

I won't calculate any preliminary scores, will leave the outcome hanging in suspense until we get to the actual end of the month numbers, partly because I think the outcome lies perhaps within the margin of error. RodneyS had a bit of a lead on DonS and wxdude64 going in, but their forecasts are different enough that either Don or wxdude64 could in theory edge past RodneyS at the final showdown. Then I looked further down the annual scoring table, Tom has an outside chance of catching some of the three leaders but would need to max out on all differentials he's holding (a colder ATL, IAH and a milder SEA for example). My plan is to go ahead with a contest for 2023 and see how it goes. Any ideas about expanding our field welcome up to and including a change in management. It might just be that more Am Wx forum members would participate even if nothing else changes but the brand name, but if anyone thinks they would like to give that a go, I would be quite glad to co-operate in that venture. And certainly any new contest manager should feel free to change anything about the format. It is what it is, and I am also happy enough to continue on, it's a small but enthusiastic and contest-loyal group we have so it's also fine to keep going as is. Whatever, have a great holiday and check in around January 1-2 to see what happened. There will be the usual January relaxed late penalty call for forecasts around 27th of December.

Let's go for 50 ... sets up a chance of breaking the record day to day change in maximum which I believe was 41 in the Feb 1918 event shown in the list. Will edit my table for that list which is somewhere back in this thread, when tomorrow is in the books.

I ran a program on the data base and here is the full list of 38+ daily ranges (1869-2022); as Don mentioned, 48 is the maximum but in terms of winter synoptics 43 (58/15) on Jan 9, 1978 seems to be the largest range from this type of deep freeze plunge (the record was a cold front too but in late March 1921). The occasions with ** marking are also in the list of largest day to day changes in maximum temperature that I posted earlier in the thread and will update from 23rd and 24th max data. The largest change there was 41 deg in Feb 1918. I have identified the cause of the large range which can be warming especially earlier in the records when there was a smaller urban heat island, at the onset of very warm spells. So the list of largest ranges caused by a daily cooling trend is smaller than this list, as about one third that I have identified are large (mostly spring month) warmings rather than created by a cold front. This is a long list but it may help anyone interested in finding similar synoptic situations. l can now edit in Dec 23, 2022 apparently the new champion of the big range at 50 F deg difference (58,8). Rank ___ Date ______ Range from Max, Min ___range due wx colder or warmer? _ 01 ____ Dec 23, 2022 _50 __ 58 __ 8 ____ cold front _ 02 ____ Mar 28, 1921 _ 48 __ 82 _ 34 ____ cold front (prev day 60/47, next day 42/26) _ 03 ____ Apr 25, 1915 _ 44 __ 91 _ 47 ____ could have been either or both (67,91,72,92,54) _t04 ____ Apr 7, 1929 __ 43 __ 89 _ 46 ____ warming from prev day max 56, next day 88 _t04 ____ Jan 9, 1978 __ 43 __ 58 _ 15 ____ cold front (next day 21/12) ^ _ 06 ____ Mar 13, 1990 _ 42 __ 85 _ 43 ___ warm spell with large diurnal ranges (also 35 range 15th) _t07 ____ Feb 20, 1918 _ 41 __ 59 _ 18 ____ cold front, next day max 18 (this is largest day to day change) ** _t07 ____ Mar 18, 1934 _41 __ 71 _ 30 ____ cold front, next day max 36 min 22 ** _t07 ____ May 19, 1962 _41 __ 99 _ 58 ____ warming, prev day 89/56, next 90/64. (May's highest max) _t07 ____ Mar 20, 1986 _41 __ 62 _ 21 ____ cold front, next day 36/18 _t07 ____ Dec 22, 1998 _41 __ 63 _ 22 ____ cold front, next day 29/18 _t12 ____ Dec 2, 1942 __ 40 __ 58 _ 18 ____ cold front, next day max 30 min 18 _t12 ____ Jan 23, 1957 _ 40 __ 60 _ 20 ____ cold front, next day max 27 min 16 _t12 ____ Apr 27, 1962 _ 40 __ 91 _ 51 _____ warming, prev day 71/45, next 89/62 _t12 ____ Apr 3, 1967 __ 40 __ 76 _ 36 ____ cold front (prev day 81/61, next day 50/32) _t12 ____ Apr 12, 1977 _ 40 __ 90 _ 50 ____ warming (prev day 56/42, next day 88/60) _t12 ____ Mar 18, 1989 _40 __ 77 _ 37 ____ cold front (prev day 70/42, (77/37), next day 46/31) _t12 ____ Apr 27, 1990 _ 40 __ 91 _ 51 ____ warming, next day 90/69 _t12 ____ Apr 4, 1995 __ 40 __ 68 _ 28 ___ cold front, next day 39/23 _t20 ____ Apr 8 1871 ___ 39 __ 85 _ 46 ____ next two days very warm (83, 80) _t20 ____ Jan 10, 1876 _ 39 __ 60 _ 21 ____ cold front (max 9th 56, max 11th 24) ** _t20 ____ Apr 19, 1897 _ 39 __ 68 _ 29 ____ cold front (max 20th 43 min 24) _t20 ____ Apr 1, 1917 ___ 39 __ 83 _ 44 ____could have been either or both (62, 83, 54) _t20 ____ Mar 26, 1922_ 39 __ 76 _ 37 ____ warming, prev day 55/40, next day 62/53 _t20 ____ Dec 8, 1927 __ 39 __ 65 _ 26 ____ cold front (next day max 26) ** _t20 ____ Feb 8, 1933 __ 39 __ 60 _ 21 ____ cold front (next day max 24) ** _t20 ____ Mar 9, 1987 __ 39 __ 62 _ 23 ____ cold front (prev day 76F, next day 28/15) record hi to low max in 2d _t20 ____ Mar 8, 2005 __ 39 __57 _ 18 ____ cold front (prev day 63/43, next day 31/16) _t20 ____ Jan 13, 2018 __ 39 __58 _ 19 ____ cold front (prev day 61/44, next day 25/15) _t30 ____ May 10 1874 _ 38 __ 90 _ 52 ____ cold front, morning low prob'ly 65-70 _t30 ____ Feb 27, 1880 _ 38 __ 68 _ 30 ___ warming, next two days 56, 69 (LYD) _t30 ____ Feb 16, 1896 _ 38 __ 44 __ 6 ___ cold front, max 15th 54, max 17th 7 F ** _t30 ____ Dec 15, 1901 _ 38 __ 60 _ 22 ___ cold front, max 14th 58, max 16th 26 _t30 ____ Apr 27, 1915 _ 38 __ 92 _ 54 ___ probably cold front (see above Apr 25) ** 2nd entry in 3d _t30 ____ Mar 19, 1918 _ 38 __ 76 _ 38 ____ cold front more likely (next day 52/36) _t30 ____ Dec 14, 1919 _ 38 __ 60 _ 22 ___ cold front (61, 60, 27 max 13-15) _t30 ____ Jan 27, 1925 _ 38 __ 42 __ 4 ___ cold front (next day min -2, max 14) _t30 ____ Mar 16, 1935 _ 38 __ 77 _ 39 ___ warming as prev day max 43, next day max 67 (range 34 cf) _t30 ____ Apr 21, 1936 _ 38 __ 81 _ 43 ___ cold front (next day 54/35) _t30 ____ Mar 3, 1938 __38 __ 49 _ 11 ___ cold front (next day 29/9) _t30 ____ Apr 25, 1960 _38 __ 87 _ 49 ___ warming more likely (70/45 prev, 70/52 next) or t'stm? _t30 ____ Feb 25, 1970 _38 __ 54 _ 16 ___ cold front (next day 26/9) ________________________ ^ Jan 26, 1978 perhaps comes to mind, had a 36F range 58 down to 22

^^ Gotta get those last minute stocking stuffers ^^ (CLE guess 18" storm total)

The idea of "too cold for lake effect" is a bit of an urban legend, the lakes warm the frigid air to the extent that it can hold enough moisture to remain very capable of maxing out. Without Lake Erie there BUF would probably drop to 12F but the lake will release enough heat into the squall band to maintain a reading of 18-22F (at a guess).

Some estimates of timing for the front ... in EST NYC _ 1130 central LI w CT 1200 central CT and Springfield MA 1300 ORH-PVD 1340 BOS 1420 Cape Cod 1530 Expect about a one-hour lag for sharp temp drops after the fropa I would expect it to be a discontinuous squall line with isolated gusts to 70 mph possible but 50-55 more general, lasting about a half hour, then 35-45 during the CAA.

Arctic front is about one hour behind that sleety line, temp drops of 20-30 deg in 2 hrs have been reported all through the OV and w PA. It is near -10 F with 35 mph wind gusts in most of western OH, IN and IL. 2-4" snow quite widespread in Ohio and parts of wPA so you may get a coating in some parts of nMD despite the downslope dry out. My guess is the temp at DCA at noon will be 24F, IAD 20F and parts of nMD 15 F. Wind chills below zero.

Looking at radar in WV, front seems to be fairly active, would expect some hail and thunder followed by a few minutes of snow in some parts of the lowlands, a coating of snow across nMD before the strong winds set in, blowing that around. Bright sunshine to follow will not help make driving any easier, and icy patches on some roads quite likely as there could be .10" rain or sleet falls ahead of the fast temp drop. Temps down to 5-10 F by Saturday morning.

Maybe it was 998.2 mb, weather maps include the decimal so a weather station reading 982 is at 998.2 mb.

Give it three hours and it will be almost something instead of basically nothing.

No earthquake warning? With all this air and water moving around, the crust will be under stress, would expect a minor earthquake in NY or PA tomorrow or Saturday. Also new moon on 23rd, so a bit of additional tidal force.

Blending all models with a nowcast on that Alpena forecast, right now it appears to me that some of the guidance is too progressive. The surface low is holding back a bit further west than the hour to hour positions on 18z models and so their 0600z positions appear too far east by at least 50 miles. I think the low will track very close to APN although it will elongate to form a double center with the eastern circulation. So my forecast was based on more of a nowcast approach than any direct model to forecast approach. Lake Huron as you know is quite warm compared to the air mass temperature coming in but so is Lake Michigan and I wonder if the models entirely processed those signatures into the first part of the evolution. All of the upper level circulations are well back to the west of Lake Michigan so a deepening low should in theory try to move towards the upper lows which may pull it back a bit further west at least through 06z. The explosive deepening phase is just starting now. It should continue for the next 12 hours or so.

During the explosive deepening phase I would expect rain to change to ice pellets and then heavy wet snow with thunder quite possible. From my reading of current map and guidance, the rapidly deepening low will head up through central s MI towards your location by 0600z and then may hover in place for a while as it connects through to the eastern center moving north across L Ontario. Eventually it drifts far enough north that you get into much colder air from the west, snow will remain heavy for a while then come and go in bursts as it becomes more lake effect and less synoptic. I think the deepening phase will drive out the 32-35F dew point air over Lake Huron and allow the rain to change phase, but it could go through a couple of oscillations along the way with heavy ice pellets quite possible around 02-04z. Let us know as you're sort of at ground zero for this.

00z NAM looks to be an upgrade especially for s MI. The low stays on the Michigan side of L Huron through the deepening process. I don't know if it does any good for Chicago, but it may mean that some forecast amounts for MI are low. I think this evolution is going to create sustained S+ bands across much of lower MI and amounts of 20-25 inches could occur in a few places. Will go for 22.5" at GRR, 15.0" LAN, 6.0" DTW, 12.5" MBS and 17.5" APN, possibly 18-25" TVC and MKG over the full duration of the storm.

Posted back on Monday, adding the ranks 13-18 (all the 35 deg drops) ... For potential comparison to 23rd-24th change in NYC max temp, these are the top twelve downward differentials from day to day, 1869 to 2022: _ Rank ___ Dates _______________ From _ To ___ diff _ 01 _____1918 Feb 20-21 ________59 __ 18 ____-41 _ 02 ____ 1921 Mar 28-29 _______82 __ 42 ___ -40 _ 03 ____ 1927 Dec 8 - 9 ________65 __ 26 ___ -39 _ 04 ____ 1915 Apr 26-27 _______ 92 __ 54 ___ -38 _t05 ____ 1896 Feb 16-17 _______ 44 ___ 7 ___ -37 _t05 ____ 1978 Jan 9-10 ________ 58 __ 21 ___ -37 _t05 ____ 2003 Apr 16-17 _______ 88 __ 51 ___ -37 _t08 ____ 1876 Jan 10-11 ________60 __ 24 ___ -36 _t08 ____ 1911 Nov 12-13 ________69 __ 33 ___ -36 _t08 ____ 1933 Feb 8 - 9 ________ 60 __ 24 ___ -36 _t08 ____ 1970 Feb 3 - 4 _________56 __ 20 ___ -36 _t08 ____ 2014 Jan 6 - 7 ________ 55 __ 19 ____ -36 _t13 ____ 1890 Feb 5 - 6 ________ 68 __ 33 ____ -35 _t13 ___1898 Dec 31-1899 Jan 1_ 53 __ 18 ____ -35 _t13 ____ 1918 Jan 12-13 _________53 __ 18 ____ -35 _t13 ____ 1934 Mar 18-19 ________71 __ 36 ____ -35 _t13 ____ 1939 Apr 25-26 _______ 86 __ 51 ____ -35 _t13 ____ 1959 Mar 21-22 _______ 69 __ 34 ____ -35 _t19 ____ _t19 ____