Roger Smith

By the way my 1-3" fast in and out was meant for the I-95 corridor, probably 3-6" in a few spots just south of that, but still with the ground fairly warm and the fast motion, mid-day clearing trend, can't see this amounting to a big dump of snow for very many. Rates may be good for about 1-2 hours. May do better in central VA too. Better than nothing, anyway.

Fast 1-3 inches and out by lunch time? Just going too fast to do very much. Might be heavy snow for a few minutes though.

The contest has officially concluded at 21/7/4 and the winner is wxdude64, congrats. The full scoring summary can be seen back a few posts, as nothing has changed since then.

Thanks, I think that you two are the gold standard of this forecast contest and we all have a challenge to meet those standards. Good luck to everyone in 2022,

Thanks for these entries, I will check my e-mail for one more possibly ... and please note, as is our tradition in January, relaxed late penalty situation, anyone may adjust their numbers up until end of the 3rd if they wish, the table of entries will appear early on the 4th. No late penalties will be assessed so I wanted each on-time entrant to have the same opportunity to see and possibly utilize any last minute guidance. Currently nearly 00z Jan 3 so you have all day in z time on Monday to make adjustments. And if you haven't been in to check, all the scoring is finished over in the Dec 2021 thread. Don Sutherland1 held on to his lead despite a valiant late charge up the tables from RodneyS which if memory serves began around May or June from a position well back of the leaders at that point. Just a reminder of how the forecasts are scored ... Most months will be scored from 100 minus 2 points per 0.1 F deg error. Months that exceed a 5F anomaly (warm or cold) are scored with the excess portion counting only 1 point per 0.1 F deg error. That reduction applies both at the top end (5.0 to the value) and at the lower end (0.0 to corresponding equal interval). An example from last month, Dec 5.9 at DCA, your forecast would have scored 9 points to 0.9 then an additional 2 points per 0.1 F above 0.9, so if you predicted 2.5 then your raw score was 41. (see down for raw score adjustments) Months that exceed a 10F anomaly (warm or cold) are scored by taking your error and dividing it by the anomaly, times 10, so for example last month IAH was +12.4, a forecast of +3.0 would score (30/12.4) x 10 which is 24. If no raw score is 60 or higher, then forecasts are scored from rank order in equal increments depending on number of forecasts. With 12 forecasts I have been using 0.5 as the increment which means even the worst forecast got five points. Ties are given highest scores in the sequence but those behind tied forecasts drop down all the intervals used up. Anyone whose raw score would exceed the awarded adjusted score retains their raw score. However, I plan to adjust this in 2022 to the following system. Instead of going with intervals, I will score the forecasts from a statistical basis from 60 down to the lowest required interval. Then for example, if I had to boost scores from the 35 level to 60 and those from 30 down were okay as raw scores, the adjusted scores would be on a differential basis in the boosted interval, and could be either closer together or further apart than we've seen in the direct application of equal intervals. As an example, if I had to boost 3.0, 2.9, 2.8, 2.6, 2.3 and 1.9, with 1.7 the next highest forecast having a raw score of 32 for an outcome of +5.2, above the progression value of 30, then I would take (60-32) = 28 as the total range of adjusted scores, then 60 to xx the specific adjusted scores so that xx was at a value derived from the differential of 3.0 and 1.7 but using 30 for the base score (so it would be 0.2 of 1.3 of the 30 point interval which is still five rounded off). The adjusted scores for those that needed boosting would be 60, 57, 55, 50, 45, 35 which seems like a fairer outcome than the previous 60, 55, 50, 45, 40, 35 for them. It may not make a lot of difference in many cases but it will eliminate the odd scoring jogs between similar forecasts when raw scores don't work. I suppose the other approach would be to eliminate boosted scoring and just go with raw scores, if they are all low, too bad. But this makes each month more equally weighted and using golf as an example, it's worth the same to win a tournament at four over as it is at eighteen under par. A significant advantage can be gained by a forecast that eliminates the use of boosted scoring. If anyone has a raw score over 60, then all scores are raw scores. RodneyS had that going for DEN last month where his forecast was quite a bit closer to the large anomaly of +7.2 (at +5.6) than most of ours were, and he gained the full advantage as a result.

<<<< ============ - - - - Annual Scoring for 2021 (Jan-Dec) - - - - ============ >>>> High scores for nine locations shown in red, high scores for regions in bold. Change in rank is shown after forecaster name. No entry there means same position as last month. Consensus moved up one into the gap between 3rd and 4th place among forecasters. Normal dropped behind the final regular entrant (moi) and finished 12th. Prorated, second half entrant Deformation Zone was ahead of 9th place among the full-time entrants. Any changes shown for forecasters do not include forecasters moving past consensus or normal, or vice versa. Two pairs of forecasters exchanged ranks in December. The top three remained as before, 4th and 5th were exchanged, as were 6th and 7th. RodneyS in second moved from 107 back to 74 behind leader (and therefore contest winner) DonSutherland1. RodneyS would have finished 62 points back if I had not used the max 60 scoring rule, and both would have had fewer points in total (as would most others) -- I have now listed all raw score totals, does not look like the boosted scores made much difference to these ranks, but in any case, the rules were laid out before the contest year. RodneyS moved up quite steadily in the second half of the contest and fell just short of overtaking one final forecaster -- DonSutherland kept his forecasts close enough to RodneyS who was generally successful this month in going warm. If he had gone a bit warmer he might have been able to reach the top spot. Also RodneyS leads the contest in months won (three), and has a good record in best forecasts and extreme forecasts. But Don was consistently in the top half of the contests and held on for the win. Congrats to both of them, and also to BKViking who was third and managed to beat consensus, no mean feat. . FORECASTER _________________DCA_NYC_BOS__east _ ORD_ATL_IAH__cent __c/e ___ DEN_PHX_SEA__west___TOTALS DonSutherland1 ______________ 818 _866 _650 _ 2334 __763 _914 _835 _2512_ 4846__564 _805 _796 _2165___ 7011 RodneyS _____________________ 796 _843 _661 _ 2300 __ 659 _910 _772 _ 2341__4641 __680 _810 _796 _2286__ 6927 BKViking _____________________ 771 _846 _655 _ 2272 __ 611 _ 833 _753 _ 2197__4469 __633 _754 _816 _2203___6672 ___ Consensus (up 1) _________ 813 _862 _646 _ 2321 __597 _830 _762 _ 2189__4510 __608 _721 _772 _ 2101___ 6611 wxallannj (up 1) _____________ 777 _848 _609 _ 2234 __531 _821 _777 _ 2129__4363 __720 _687 _833 _2240 ___6603 Tom (down 1) ________________825 _909 _695 _ 2429__585 _743 _771 _ 2099__4528 __562 _687 _770 _2019___ 6547 RJay (up 1) __________________ 805 _861 _716 _ 2382 __687 _820 _680 _ 2187 __4569 __636 _654 _641 _1931___ 6500 hudsonvalley21 (down 1) ____765 _838 _654 _ 2257 __535 _807 _738 _ 2080__4337 __587 _754 _804_ 2145___ 6482 wxdude64 __________________ 773 _746 _565 _ 2084 __492 _815 _768 _ 2075 __4159 __624 _724 _709 _2057___ 6216 so_whats_happening ___________ 817 _777 _487 _ 2081 __580 _837 _643 _ 2060 __4141 __540 _678 _714 _ 1932___ 6073 Scotty Lightning _____________725 _770 _568 _ 2063 __436 _698 _681 _ 1815 __3878 __575 _659 _763 _ 1997___ 5875 Roger Smith __________________695 _648 _382 _ 1725 __555 _693 _819 _ 2067 __3792 __590 _658 _804 _2052__ 5844 ___ Normal (down 1) _________724 _692 _474 _ 1890__378 _769 _758 _ 1905__3795 __530 _676 _772 _1978___ 5773 Deformation Zone _ (6/12) ___ 353 _ 312 _304 __ 969 __282 _425 _385 __1092__ 2061 __284 _352 _386 _1022__3083 (for comparison prorated x2)^^ __ 706 _624 _608 _ 1938 __554 _836 _748 _ 2184 __ 4122 __ 568 _704 _772 _2044__6166 _ this may not be exact because scoring in the six months DZ has entered may have been higher or lower than avg. Stormchaser Chuck (1/12) ____ 020 _ 024 _ 064 _ 108 __080 _034 _068 _ 182 ___ 290 ___000 _ 010 _ 042_ 052 ___ 342 Best scores for the locations and regions FORECASTER ___________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ east __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __cent __c/e __ DEN _PHX _SEA __west __ Totals DonSutherland1 __________ 2 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 2 ______4 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 4 ____ 4 _____ 0 ____ 3 ____ 1 _____ 0 _____ 1 __ Jan RodneyS _________________ 2 ____ 2 ____ 2 _____ 1 ______ 2 ____ 3 ____ 2 ____ 4 ____ 2 _____ 1 ____ 2 ____ 0 ____ 2 _____ 3 __Feb,Jul,Dec BKViking __________________ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 1 ____ 0 ____ 3 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 3 _____0 ____ 1 __ Apr ___ Consensus ____________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0_____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____0 ____ 0 __ wxallannj _________________ 0 ____ 2 ____ 1 _____ 0 ______ 1 ____ 1 ____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 4 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 3 _____ 0 __ Tom ______________________ 2 ____ 2 ____ 1 _____ 2 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 2 _____ 1 ____ 1 __ May RJay ______________________ 2 ____ 3 ____ 5 _____ 2 ______ 2 ____ 1 ____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 2 _____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 2 __Sep,Oct* hudsonvalley21 ___________ 0 ____ 0 ____0 _____ 1 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____0 _____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 3 _____ 1 _____ 0 __ wxdude64 ________________ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 2 ______0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 2 _____ 1 __ Mar(t) so_whats_happening ______ 3 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 1 ____ 2 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 1 __ Mar (t) Scotty Lightning ___________ 2 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____0 ______ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ Roger Smith ________________1 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 2 ____ 2 ____ 3 ____ 2 ____ 1 _____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 3 _____ 2 ____ 3__Jun,Aug,Nov Deformation Zone __________0 ____ 0 ____ 2 _____ 0 ______1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____0 _____ 0 ___ Normal _________________ 2 ____ 1 ____ 2 _____ 1 ______ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ____ 3 ____1 _____ 1 _____ 1 __May,Jul ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * High score in Dec from adjusted scores went to RodneyS but RJay had a slightly higher total raw score before adjustments. (see part two of Dec scoring) EXTREME FORECAST STANDINGS High score must go to either the extreme warm or cold forecast, or second most extreme, for a station to qualify. This year, 82 locations out of 108 have qualified, 4 in Jan, 5 in Feb, 7 in March, 6 in April, 8 in May, June and July, 7 in August, 8 in September and October, 5 in November and 8 in December. Of those, 48 were awarded to warmest forecasts, 34 to coldest. A loss in the standings represents a case where second most extreme forecast had the high score and the win for that month. Normal can only win along with a forecaster. There have been nine shared wins (one by four and one by three) accounting for the excess of total wins (excl Normal). FORECASTER _______ Jan __Feb __Mar _ Apr _ May _Jun _ Jul _ Aug _Sep _ Oct_ Nov_ Dec __ TOTAL Roger Smith _________ 2-1 __2-0 __ --- __1-0 __ 1-0 __2-0 __ --- _ 3-1 _3-0 _ 0-1 _ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 16-3 RodneyS ____________ ---- __--- __ ---- __--- __ 2-1 __1-0 __ 6-0 _ --- _1-0 _ 1-0 _ ---- _4-0 _ 15-1 RJay _________________ --- __--- __ 2-0 __2-0 __ 1-0 __1-0 __ --- _ 1-0 _1-0 _ 1-0*_ --- _ 3-0 __ 12-0 wxallannj ____________ ---- __--- __ --- __3-0 __ 2-0 __3-0 __ --- _ 1-0 _--- _ 1-0 _ ---- _---- _ 10-0 DonSutherland1 _____ 2-0 __1-0 __ 2-0 __0-1 __ 2-0 __1-0 __ --- _ --- _1-0 _ 1-0 _ ---- _ ---- _ 10-1 ___ Normal ___________--- __ --- __ 2-0 __--- __ 1-0 __--- __ 5-0 _ 1-0 _--- _ 0-0 _ ---- _ ----__ 9-0 so_whats_happening _--- __1-0 __ 2-0 __--- __ --- __ 1-0 __ ---- _ --- _3-0 _ --- _ ---- _ ----__ 7-0 wxdude64 ___________ --- __1-0 __ 2-0 __--- __ --- __---- __ ---- _ 1-0 _ --- _ --- _ 1-0 _ ---- __ 5-0 Tom __________________--- __--- __ --- __--- __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ ---- _ ---- _---- _3-0 _ --- _ ----__ 5-0 Deformation Zone ___ ---- __--- __ --- __--- __ --- __ ---- __ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 1-1 _ ---- _ ---- __ 4-1 BKViking _____________ ---- __--- __ --- __--- __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ 0-1 _ --- _ 1-0 _ ---- _ 1-0 _ ---- __ 4-1 Scotty Lightning _____ ---- __--- __ ---- __--- __---- __ 1-1 __ 1-0 _ --- _ 1-0 _ --- _ ---- _ ----__ 3-1 hudsonvalley21 ______ ---- __--- __ --- __--- __ --- __ ---__ ---- _ --- _ ---- _ ---- _ 2-0 _ ---- __2-0 __________________________________ * RJay also had two other near-win efforts in October tied or very close to tied with others but late penalty interfered. These are called "no decision" outings in this contest. ===================================================

It's colder than a ____ ___ here if that helps. (-15 F)

+0.3 _ +0.1 _ +0.5 __ --1.0 _ +1.2 _ +2.5 ___ +1.5 _ +2.4 _ -0.7

Interesting to see that the previous Texas records were in 1933 because that was actually quite a cold month in the northeastern US and was followed by a near normal January and one of the coldest Februaries on record in 1934. The ridge must have been quite a bit narrower in 1933 than it has been this past month. Nov 1933 was also a cold month like it was to some extent this year.

With a day and a bit left to go this is the new state of play for 2021 among the top ten years for total precip (NYC): Rank __ YEAR ___ TOTAL PRECIP _ 01 ____ 1983 ____ 80.56" _ 02 ____ 2011 ____ 72.81" _ 03 ____ 1972 ____ 67.03" _ 04 ____ 2018 ____ 65.55" _ 05 ____ 1989 ____ 65.11" _ 06 ____ 2007 ____ 61.67" (2021 needs 1.94"to tie) _ 07 ____ 1975 ____ 61.21" (2021 needs 1.48" to tie) _ 08 ____ 1990 ____ 60.92" (2021 needs 1.19" to tie) _ 09 ____ 2006 ____ 59.89" (2021 needs 0.16" to tie) _ 10 ____ 2021 ____ 59.73" (to 4pm Dec 30) ------------------------------ Will update this although the models don't show very much additional rainfall potential before midnight 31st, if you could add the rain on Jan 1st then it might at least get to 9th, but without that it would probably stay just shy of 2006 in 10th place. ------------------------------- Memories of the mildest NYE-NYD 1965-66: As you probably guessed I am fairly ancient and was a teenager then, and (from home near Toronto) visiting relatives who were then living in Rahway, NJ over the holiday week. It was very mild on Christmas Eve and Day also, mid-50s at least. Records were set on both Dec 31 1965 (63F) and Jan 1 1966 (62F) and that temperature was probably observed at midnight as I recall it was thundering and lightning outside right around New Years Eve at that moment in time. I have the vague recollection of it being closer to 70F than that, perhaps it was a few degrees warmer over there than at the Park. The record high mins for both days were also set (51F Dec 31 and 52F Jan 1). That 52F on Jan 1 1966 was probably towards late evening, the overnight "low" was probably closer to 60 F. Looking at my data base I see that the six warmest NYE max temps are 1965 (63F), 1932 (62F), 1992 (61F) and 1895, 1936, 1990 (all 60F). The warmest NYD temps are 1966 (62F), 1919 (61F), 1973,1979,2005 (all 60F), and 1885 (59F). More recently, 58F in 2019 tied by 1876. No reason it couldn't be warmer though, Jan 2 1876 had 68F for a record high and Dec 29 1984 was 70F. Looks like 1884-85 had a similar situation to 1965-66 as the high on Dec 31 1884 was 58F.

Here's an update from winter ... the odd thing is that our super-cold spell is exactly six months after the heat dome, and temperature anomalies are cancelling out. We were in the worst part of the heat dome on June 30th, with a max here of 112 F. Today it was -5 F at sunrise and it hasn't warmed up much from that. Some high cloud layers are keeping the nights from dropping lower but the daytime readings are probably close to all-time records for this relatively mild part of the southern interior of BC (the Columbia valley). Wind chills are tolerable as wind speeds have been in the 10-20 mph range here. Some coastal inlets have had near hurricane force wind gusts from the outflow winds. Where they had the severe flooding a month ago, east of Vancouver, the landscape is now frozen solid and under a foot of snow. I wish I could give this a drop-kick through the goal posts of the central plains states to give you folks a taste, the problem is that getting cold in BC and the northeast US at the same time takes a very unusual configuration of the jet stream that we rarely see. The more normal teleconnection with a large cold anomaly over this region is a southwest flow into the eastern US. If the cold seeps further south it can get even more extreme, the classic example is mid-January of 1932 when it snowed at low elevations in LA while New York and Toronto were setting warmth records. Also in Jan 1950 our coldest month, NYC had its warmest January day (72F, later tied in 2007) and three separated intervals of record warmth. It did turn wintry for a time in late Feb 1950 when the cold relented over the west.

Most of these western Canada locations would have their all-time record lows in January 1950, for example Vancouver (YVR) airport was zero F during that record cold month and some places in northlcentral BC and Alberta were below -45 F. That location Edson does not have a long period of record but is also in a chinook location east of Jasper national park, so it runs a bit milder than many places in Alberta. Anyway the locals are saying this is about as cold as it gets although most of them were not born in 1950 so they may be in for a bit of a surprise. Okanagan Lake rarely freezes over but could this winter after this very cold spell so early in the season. The Arrow Lakes which are man-made on the Columbia River sometimes freeze and often have large patches of floating ice by February, so they might freeze this winter. Slocan Lake is a deeper but smaller lake than those and it has only frozen in three winters since 1950, including 1969 and 1986. It became partially frozen late in Feb 2019 which was a very cold month in this region too. The ice cover was not thick or continuous but people reported seeing floating rafts of ice in the central portion of the lake. Currently at -20 C or -4 F here, with a snow cover of 30 cm (12"), slight wind chill.

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to all. Will start this thread and see if we have a quorum for a contest in 2022. No late penalties until perhaps the 3rd of January, encourage your friends and even perfect strangers to join, I need people I can beat. Besides Normal. As always, predict the temperature anomalies relative to 1991-2020 in F deg, for these nine locations: DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA and let me know if you want to see any changes in the contest, either on the thread or by PM.

I dropped by to make a comment that seems to be in line with what people are seeing in subtle changes in the maps out around days 6-10, the cold air out here is not hammering south and will be met with some resistance, it won't just all settle into the Great Basin which can be a death sentence for winter on the east coast. In fact none of this cold air seems to be heading very far south of the border, currently there's a stubborn wave in eastern WA holding it back and even where I am the colder air is not here yet, nor does it look like it will get here until maybe Tuesday which means a lot of this severe arctic cold is going to bounce east through the prairies into northern Ontario. While there isn't a lot of southward push on it there, at least it gets close enough to be useful if the pattern does begin to change for the better. So it isn't looking like some carbon copy of 1949-50 with the large amplitude ridge-trough setup that kept it very mild in the east to mid-Feb (albeit there was some decent winter weather for a few weeks in late Feb and early Mar that winter) or worse 1948-49 which had severe blizzards in the Rocky Mountain states and the Great Basin and nothing but mild weather most of the winter in the east. Could be more like 1968-69 which had intervals of severe cold out this way but also a good coastal storm track and retrograde events indicating blocking over the eastern arctic. I think from what I can recall of that winter (very dry and a bit on the mild side in Ontario) there was just enough cold air around to feed into those coastal storms to give some decent snowfalls even though it wasn't what you would call a cold winter.

_ Final Scoring for December 2021 _ Scores are based on latest end of month projections in the previous post. Six locations needed the boost of "minimum progression" to max 60 and rank order scoring (unless raw scores for any forecaster higher at their scoring level). NYC just barely needed this boost but it did not make much difference to the scores shown as quite a few remain raw scores, while the other locations converted had larger differentials from a maximum raw score of 60. DEN had a large anomaly but RodneyS had a high enough raw score (84) that it prevented the scoring from being boosted there. PHX and BOS appear to be within the realm of normal scoring and for PHX we find the only two examples of forecasts which were more extreme than the outcome. Every other forecast fell short of the actual anomaly at other locations, although almost all of us had the right anomaly signs. I will let you know in the final report whether the boosts made much difference to the annual scoring outcome, for now I don't think it made any difference, the raw scores while lower in general would have been separated by about the same amounts as these results, within 20 points. As of 0615h EST Jan 1 the scoring is final, IAH has not confirmed a value yet but it will obviously require the scoring boost as shown (will be +12 or higher). _FORECASTER _____________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent _ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA__west___TOTAL RodneyS ____________________ 55^_ 45^_ 56 __ 156 __ 60^_ 60^_ 60^__ 180 __336 __ 84 _ 86 _ 12 __ 182 ___ 518 RJay ________________________ 60^_ 60^_ 80 __ 200 __55^_ 45^_ 15^ __ 115 __ 315 __ 68 _ 98 _ 20^__ 186 ___ 501 DonSutherland 1 ____________ 45^_ 40^_ 52 __ 137 __ 55^_ 50^_ 55^ __ 160 __ 297 __ 58 _ 92 _ 50^__ 200 ___ 497 Deformation Zone ___________40^_ 40^_ 50 __ 130 __ 30^_ 45^_ 45^ __ 120 __ 250 __ 38 _ 92 _ 50^__ 180 ___ 430 wxallannj ____________________50^_ 50^_ 50 __ 150 __ 20^_ 55^_ 35^ __ 110 __ 260 ___ 17 _ 68 _ 55^__ 140 ___ 400 hudsonvalley21 _____________ 15^_ 55^_ 44 __ 114 __ 45^_ 35^_ 50^ __ 130 __ 244 __ 38 _ 86 _ 16 ___140 ___ 384 BKViking ____________________ 30^_ 32 _ 50 __ 112 __ 40^_ 30^_ 25^ __ 095 __ 207 __ 28 _ 88 _ 50^__ 166 ___ 373 ___ Consensus _______________32^_ 34 _ 50 __ 116 __ 35^_ 30^_ 32^ __ 097 __ 213 __ 32 _ 88 _ 32^__ 152 ___ 365 so_whats_happening ________40^_ 28 _ 30 __ 098 __ 30^_ 15^_ 20^ __ 065 ___ 163 __ 20 _ 62 _ 35^__ 117 ___ 280 Tom _________________________25^_ 30 _ 50 __ 105 __ 40^_ 10^_ 05^ __ 055 __ 160 __ 15 _ 68 _ 30^ __ 113 ___ 273 Roger Smith ________________ 10^_ 10^_ 14 __ 034 __ 05^_ 05^_ 45^ __ 055 ___ 089 __ 28 _ 74 _ 60^__ 162 ___ 251 wxdude64 __________________ 05^_ 05^_ 12 __ 022 __ 10^_ 30^_ 30^ __ 070 ___ 092 __ 34 _ 84 _ 25^__ 143 ___ 235 Scotty Lightning ____________ 20^_ 26 _ 40 __ 086 __ 15^_ 20^_ 15^ __ 050 ___ 136 __ 05 _ 52 _ 05^___062 ___ 198 ___ Normal __________________ 12^_ 12^_ 30 __ 054 __ 12^_ 05^_ 00 ___ 017 ___ 071 __ 00 _ 32 _ 22^___ 054 ___ 125 ============================================================ EXTREME FORECAST REPORT Based on current projections, all locations but PHX would qualify. Seven are going to the warmest forecasts and one to the coldest (SEA). RJay has three wins at present and RodneyS has four, all for warmest forecasts. SEA will go to Roger Smith with coldest forecast. PHX did not qualify at +3.4 or higher as the third highest forecast has high score. _______________________________________________ Annual update will be posted at end of the contest only. From what I recall of the differentials, RodneyS has made up about half the ground needed to catch DonSutherland1. With most projected outcomes higher than (or lower than for SEA) all forecasts there isn't much room for adjustments of these differentials, but time will tell. ________________________________________________ (Scoring table with raw scores for the six locations that had some boosted scoring; totals of those and differentials from the above) _FORECASTER _____________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent _ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA__west___TOTAL ___ diff RodneyS ____________________ 33 _ 38 _ 56 __ 127 __ 39 _ 37 _ 38 __ 114 __241 __ 84 _ 86 _ 12 __ 182 ___ 423 (518) _ -95 RJay ________________________ 41 _ 56 _ 80 __ 177 __ 35 _ 20 _ 12 __ 067 __ 244 __ 68 _ 98 _ 20 __ 186 ___ 430 (501) _ -71 DonSutherland 1 ____________ 25 _ 36 _ 52 __ 113 __ 35 _ 24 _ 28 __ 087 __ 210 __ 58 _ 92 _ 30 __ 180 ___ 390 (497) _-107 Deformation Zone ___________21 _ 36 _ 50 __ 107 __ 10 _ 20 _ 20 __ 050 __ 157 __ 38 _ 92 _ 30 __ 160 ___ 317 (430) _ -113 wxallannj ____________________31 _ 40 _ 50 __ 121 __ 07 _ 26 _ 22 __ 055 __ 176 ___ 17 _ 68 _ 42 __ 127 ___ 400 (303) _ -97 hudsonvalley21 _____________ 07 _ 44 _ 44 __ 095 __ 21 _ 18 _ 24 __ 063 __ 158 __ 38 _ 86 _ 16 ___140 ___ 298 (383) _ -85 BKViking ____________________ 15 _ 32 _ 50 __ 097 __ 12 _ 16 _ 15 __ 043 __ 140 __ 28 _ 88 _ 30 __ 146 ___ 286 (373) _ -87 ___ Consensus _______________19 _ 34 _ 50 __ 103 __ 11 _ 17 _ 18 __ 046 __ 149 __ 32 _ 88 _ 26 __ 146 ___ 295 (365) -70 so_whats_happening ________21 _ 28 _ 30 __ 098 __ 10 _ 12 _ 15 __ 037 ___ 135 __ 20 _ 62 _ 28 __ 110 ___ 245 (280) -35 Tom _________________________13 _ 30 _ 50 __ 093 __ 12 _ 09 _ 09 __ 030 __ 123 __ 15 _ 68 _ 26 __ 109 ___ 232 (273) -41 Roger Smith ________________ 00 _ 00 _ 14 __ 014 __ 00 _ 00 _ 22 __ 022 ___ 036 __ 28 _ 74 _ 50 __ 152 ___ 188 (251) -63 wxdude64 __________________ 00 _ 00 _ 12 __ 012 __ 00 _ 16 _ 18 __ 034 ___ 046 __ 34 _ 84 _ 24 __ 142 ___ 188 (235) -47 Scotty Lightning ____________ 11 _ 26 _ 40 __ 077 __ 05 _ 15 _ 13 __ 033 ___ 110 __ 05 _ 52 _ 00 ___057 ___ 167 (198) -31 ___ Normal __________________00 _ 06 _ 30 __ 036 __ 00 _ 00 _ 00 __ 000 ___ 036 __ 00 _ 32 _ 20 __ 052 ___088 (125) -37 ++++++++++++++++++ The only significant difference applying the raw scores would be that RJay had high score for Dec. Both pairs of exchanged final rankings would have been the same. Clearly the rich get richer in this boosted score by ranks, so I might give some thought to a slight variation which would be max 60 and other scores from a curve so that differentials would directly affect the scoring.

Thanks Don, I suspected that might be the case. So we can remove 1870-71 from the list. I seem to recall getting some snowfall adjustments from you when I first started working with the data base, but that one needs to be adjusted (in my data set). Will see what I can find out. Looking at the rest of the 1870s I don't think this problem extends much further than that one winter.

Don or somebody else probably posted some of this back in the thread, but according to my search of the NYC data, the latest first measurable snowfall in any winter season was Jan 29 of 1973. Second place goes to Jan 21 of 1871 but I am not sure how reliable the zero snowfall of Dec 1870 and Jan 1-20 1871 are considered; the data set I have does not indicate any missing snow data there and the mean temps were 34.2 for Dec and 30.7 for Jan 1-20. Other late starts I noted were Jan 20, 1966 and 2000, Jan 19, 2007, Jan 18, 1998, Jan 17, 2016 and Jan 11, 1995. The only other winter seasons to reach Jan 4th with no measurable snow were 1895-96 and 2001-02 (both Jan 7 first snow), 1891-92 (Jan 6 first snow) and 1971-72 (Jan 5 first snow). That is a total of 12 winters out of 153 making it to Jan 4 before the first measurable snow. The total winter snowfalls in the same order were 2.8" (1972-73), 30.1" (1870-71), 21.4" (1965-66), 16.3" (1999-2000), 12.4" (2006-07), 5.5" (1997-98), 32.8" (2015-16, most of that on Jan 23rd), 11.8" (1994-95), 46.0" (1895-96), 3.5" (2001-02), 25.3" (1891-92), and 22.9" (1971-72). The average of those twelve was 19.2" which indicates roughly normal snowfall for the average of about 70% of the winter season still available at the zero start. However 1896 and 2016 excluded, the average was only about 15" per season and among these we find three of the seven lowest seasonal totals including 1st, 2nd and 7th lowest. The other four in the seven least snowy winters had as little as 0.1" by Jan 1st in 1900-1901 (fifth lowest snowfall total of 5.1"), that winter's first inch of snow came on Jan. 30th with the total only 0.3" before that. For third least snowy 1918-19 (3.8") most of the snow fell in March, the total being a mere 1.1" before that. 1931-32 and 2019-20 also in the bottom seven had larger portions before New Years than the rest of this group, with 2.5" in Dec 2019 of the 4.8" seasonal finish, and 2.1" Nov-Dec 1931 of the 5.3" seasonal total. The 1895-96 winter certainly reversed form more notably than any of the rest of this list, some record cold (Jan 6, Feb 17 record low maxima) and heavy snowfall events in Mar gave a generally wintry period of weather throughout January to March, then the spring set numerous high temperature records (some still extant) in April and May. Rather than being a one-shot wonder like 2016, 1896 had four record snowfalls in March. There wasn't a lot of snow with the cold weather earlier though (a total of 3" in January and 9.5" in Feb, then 30.5" in March and 3" more in early April. I suspect this winter might go a bit like these better outcomes of the late starters, it is not setting up like a torch winter with plenty of cold massing for later delivery. I would compare it perhaps to 1981-82 which had some wintry episodes after Jan 8th and not much before then. Winter 2011-12 had the freak late October snow (2.9") then nothing measurable until Jan 21, 2012 when 4.3" fell. So it probably seemed like another very late start.

I have a good feeling about Jan 3-6, could be a rather slow transition until then.

You may have noticed this also, a lot of winter month maximum records occur at night, quite often you can spot them in the data because two consecutive days will have very similar mild maximum values. This may be even more frequent further north, it is conspicuous in the Toronto data for example, and when I ran my own weather station as a student (1960s and early 70s) I saw a few of these happen. If you look at the records for Dec 31 1965 and Jan 1 1966 you'll notice they are similar and those happened late in the evening to early morning hours. I happened to be in NJ that holiday visiting relatives so I remember the occasion. Back home the high on the 31st was in the late afternoon according to the friend who read my instruments, and the temperature fell off after that. There are even a few occasions with three consecutive days of record highs and a fairly steady temperature in the middle of those three days, so two midnight warm readings in succession. The reason for this phenomenon may be the distance between the source region (Gulf of Mexico) and the east coast or lower Great Lakes, meaning that if there's a strong pull on the Gulf like there was early yesterday, then about 36 hours later that pulse crosses the northeastern states. Once you get into any modest solar heating like later February, this phenomenon fades out, and you only find it starting in late November also.

So far LGA has broken their record (63F) and EWR tied theirs (65F). NYC at 62F within one, and has set a new high minimum of 54F. JFK and ISP with more marine influence are at 61 and 59 so far. It looks to stay quite mild to midnight or beyond so the NYC max record may still occur with the 62F of 2000 for 17th also not out of reach yet.

Dec 16 records at all five locations set in 1971 are 65 for JFK, EWR, 64 for ISP, 63 for NYC and 62 for LGA. I only have the high minimum record for NYC and that was 48 also in 1971. If it stays very mild to midnight then the 17th record high could also be taken down, that one is 62 at NYC set in 2000.

Dec 16 records at all five locations set in 1971 are 65 for JFK, EWR, 64 for ISP, 63 for NYC and 62 for LGA. I only have the high minimum record for NYC and that was 48 also in 1971. If it stays very mild to midnight then the 17th record high could also be taken down, that one is 62 at NYC set in 2000.

That front looks like it will form a nearly continuous line squall for the upper Midwest so while some tornadic cells likely, there would be widespread damaging gusts in the 70-90 mph range. Currently at Garden City in western KS, winds are WSW 40G64 and temp dew point is 61/2 while at Wichita in eastern KS it's S 35G52 and 75/59. It's basically an April like severe weather pattern without much solar heating.

I mentioned in the December thread that Thursday could break the 1971 record of 63F at NYC. Looks like being 75-80 in the central states on Wednesday so that air mass streaming across the northeast will likely remain near 70 F. Will say 71 F for the new record there. Not sure what the records might be at other NYC regional sites but could be like 68F at JFK, 72F at LGA and 73F at EWR (on Thursday). According to my NYC data base there have been two record highs set so far in 2021 (March 26, 82F and Dec 11, 66F). There have been five record high minima (two ties) -- two in March, two in June and one in August. And there have been two record low maxima in late May (one a tie). There have been no new record low minima (these are very infrequent in recent years due to the combined effects of urban heat island and climate change). December has more warm months in recent decades than most months. I think the monthly record at NYC has been broken five times since 1982. There have been some impressive warm spells in such years as 1982, 1984, 1990, 2013, 2015 and those have bagged about half the daily records. Before the modern era, 1881, 1889, 1891, 1895, 1923 and 1957 were notable for warm spells in December. December seems to be in transition from being a genuine winter month to being the tail end of autumn, and this tendency shows up far and wide not just around the northeastern states. Even as far afield as the UK, mild Decembers are becoming more frequent although they did have a notably cold one in 2010 that came within 0.1 C of breaking the 1890 record there. But except for that, December averages have been rising rather steadily in the UK, and also in parts of Canada. The same thing is happening at the other end of winter, late February and early March have seen many recent record highs compared to most other parts of the calendar year. May and October on the other hand have a relatively low count of recent record highs.

With the generally dry pattern 2021 is making slow progress up the table and remains in 10th place ... here's an update of what amounts are needed to reach 9th, 8th and the rest probably out of reach now. Rank __ YEAR ___ TOTAL PRECIP _ 01 ____ 1983 ____ 80.56" _ 02 ____ 2011 ____ 72.81" _ 03 ____ 1972 ____ 67.03" _ 04 ____ 2018 ____ 65.55" _ 05 ____ 1989 ____ 65.11" _ 06 ____ 2007 ____ 61.67" (2021 needs 2.66"to tie) _ 07 ____ 1975 ____ 61.21" (2021 needs 2.20" to tie) _ 08 ____ 1990 ____ 60.92" (2021 needs 1.91" to tie) _ 09 ____ 2006 ____ 59.89" (2021 needs 0.88" to tie) _ 10 ____ 2021 ____ 59.01" (.17" on Dec 11) Looking at current GFS output to the 28th, I could see maybe 1.0 to 1.5 inches of precip so would say there's a good chance of overtaking 9th place 2006 and maybe challenging 7th and 8th place 1975, 1990 near the end. Also looks to me like a record daily high may be set on Thursday 16th, 63F (1971) appears to be the current record (some warmer days in 2015 earlier in the week), would say 68-72 F a good bet. There's a weak record for the 19th (only 58F, the lowest such value in December) that on current guidance won't be broken but if the pattern slows down or moves north it could be. Records for the 17th and 18th are 62F and 63F. After the 20th (60F) there's another spell with records closer to 70F again. These daily records can be seen in my thread over in the climate change forum, pack a lunch. Yesterday (Sat 11th) set a daily record of 66 F (the former record was 64 F from 1879).