Roger Smith

Anomalies and projections ... ________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ____ (10d anom) _______+0.5 _ +1.0 _ +1.9 ___ -7.1 __+4.3 _ +3.0 __ -5.5 _ -1.1 __ -3.6 ____ (20d anom) _______-0.6 _ -0.8 _ -0.4 ___ -3.1 __+1.6 _ +1.4 __ +0.2 _+1.0 __ -0.7 11th__ (p20d anom) ___-3.0 _ -2.5 _ -2.0 ___ -8.0 __ 0.0 _ +2.5 __ +1.5 _ +2.0 __ 0.0 11th__ (p27d anom) ___-4.0 _ -4.0 _ -4.0 ____ -9.0 _ -2.0 _ 0.0 ___ +2.0 _ +2.5 _ +1.0 21st __ (p31d anom) __ -2.0 _ -2.0 _ -2.0 ____ -4.0 __ 0.0 _ 0.0 ___ -1.0 _ 0.0 __ +0.5 30th __ (p31d anom) __ -2.5 _ -3.0 _ -2.5 ____-5.0 _ -0.5 _-1.0 ___ -1.0 _ +1.0 _ -1.5 end of month anom ___ -2.9 _ -3.4 _ -2.5 ____ -4.6 _ -0.3 _ -1.0 ___ -0.8 _ +0.9 _ -1.8 (see previous post for updated snowfall totals) 11th _ The month started very mild in the east which is why the anomalies are still holding on to small positive values after ten days but basically the pattern changed around the 3rd and has remained rather cold since then, and is about to get even colder, with the last third of the month looking even colder. That cold air may eventually spill down to the Gulf coast and as we learned last February, a few days in the deep freeze at Houston can wipe out a significant positive anomaly very quickly, so I have tentatively dropped the projection to zero by the 27th but if that cold air fails to reach IAH then it could be closer to +3, if the outbreak is severe for 4-6 days than it could be -3.0 very quickly. ORD never gets much of a break from the cold but SEA is quickly coming out of the deep freeze and should eventually get to positive numbers. DEN had some deep cold for a few days but has flipped to very mild and could push past the conservative +2.0 that I show here. Nothing very simple about this pattern, but historic cold appears to be heading for the east after the end of this week which will produce a couple of near normal days before the cold arrives. 21st _ The colder trend was weaker than expected for the east but the milder trend was about as predicted in the west. This has left most locations with small negative anomalies to the 20th. Another cold spell looms for the east so the projections there go back below normal. DEN looks to be in a variable regime with some quite cold days keeping the average close to normal there. SEA will continue a slow rise towards an outcome just above normal, possibly. Snowfall amounts to date were updated in the previous post. Only BUF has had a heavy snowfall so far and SEA has not added to its impressive earlier totals. 30th _ Snowfall totals updated after the big storm yesterday (in the northeast). DEN and ORD have been adding some significant amounts too. Also, a new set of provisionals is available, so that scoring below can be updated. These new provisionals will be converted into the final values by mid-day Tuesday 1st. 31st _ Preliminary final anomalies have been posted from known data including the 31st, these will be adjusted when finalized, and then scoring will be adjusted (so I don't do the same thing twice, the scoring you see as of now is based on the earlier provisionals -- these new ones may change the scoring order a bit here and there). 1st __ Final anomalies posted, scoring is final.

GFS looked promising to me, for day 7, and the Euro looks way too slow with the first low which is likely to be much further northwest into the Baffin Island region by day 6 not lingering off Labrador. There's almost zero storm potential on the Euro-CMC consensus but just one turn of the dial away from a good outcome on the GFS. Some ensemble members have that turn of the dial. Two factors may help. One is that low pressure connecting back from the arctic remnant of the first storm to the Great Lakes could drop an energy center into a good spot by day six. Another is that full moon is on Jan 17th. This brings several good analogues into play. I would look for gradual trending of all guidance towards a big storm in the region on Jan 17-18.

It must be the effects of climatology change.

The 2021 data have all been entered into the supporting excel files and new versions are now available at Net-weather. Scroll back to the first post in this thread for the link and look for the most recent post in the linked thread. 2021 was tied third warmest on record for Toronto in this data set, and remained near that level even when earlier years were given the advantage of an urban heat island upward adjustment. NYC was closer to 8th warmest (the official data have not been confirmed, going by the monthly averages the year is around 8th) and once again, earlier years do not push in despite a boost; the recent warmth is somewhat more than just the urban heat island so it is tending to keep the raw data and adjusted data similar near the top. Less prolific warm months such as July 2021 sink down a bit in the adjusted data. While NYC had quite a wet year (10th wettest of 153) Toronto was much closer to average. The same trends were in evidence except that Toronto had a very dry August (NYC had excessive rainfalls from late August into early Sept after quite a wet July, and October was also rather wet). The fact that Nov-Dec 2021 turned dry at NYC prevented the year from overtaking 9th and 8th place years which would have happened with just normal amounts of precip in the last two months. Although it was generally quite a warm year, records were not unusually frequent, and there was one notable cold event at the end of May with some record low maxima set (unusual in this era) as well as very late traces of snow at Toronto (snow fell in small measurable amounts outside the city around May 29th). The data files in this thread have been largely brought up to date now with 2021 ranks inserted. The Net-weather thread has some additional record high min data for years 1869-1900 at NYC, which I won't edit in here because the next step will be to post a more user-friendly log of these as they change through time, but if anyone is interested in reading the material it can be found in the Net-weather version of this thread for NYC years 1869 to 1900. (once again, if you're a first time visitor to this thread, go to the original post and you'll see why there is a link to Net-weather, the excel files are too large to upload here)

George BM has higher forecasts than any other player in all four locations. I took numbers that were just slightly higher than 2nd highest forecasts in general, and found the following: I started with values equal to second highest forecasts and checked each forecast that was among the top five. Those are the five who need more snow than me, and they are generally in a zone where they need quite a bit more. Anyway, at that first level, ldub23 (second highest totals) easily wins over the 3rd to 5th highest, he has two of those second highest numbers, another is just 1.0" under, and for RIC ldub23 is 4" under second highest. So it would appear to be a straight up contest between ldub23 and GeorgeBM if more snow than ldub23's forecast materializes. Therefore the amounts GeorgeBM would need would be any combination of smaller errors, which could occur with four cases where he is 0.1" or more ahead, or various other combinations. If all the errors were equal, then he would need 32.6" more at BWI, 20.3" more at DCA, 39.2" more at IAD, and 23.5" more at RIC. Those are season totals of 42.4" BWI, 29.9" DCA, 47.6" IAD and 25.5" RIC. You could jog those around, as long as the four totals add up to at least 145.4" then GeorgeBM could win.

On the subject of the BWI 6.8 or 6.0, they still say 6.8 in the CF6 product also. It is not without precedent for a value in the CF6 to undergo later changes, so worth keeping an eye on that detail. Looking at the current standings, it is interesting that the first forecast in the current rankings with a higher forecast for DCA than snow already measured is 12th (and they have only 0.2" to use up) and the next after that is in 27th place. This would be reduced somewhat if we counted only the ranked forecasts that were not eliminated (those that can only sink lower in the standings now). Also of interest is that of the first twelve forecasts including that first one that could benefit from DCA snow, only three can benefit from further snow at BWI. Another very moderate event such as 4" BWI and DCA 5" IAD and 3" RIC would move the lead down to current 27th place IUsedtoHateCold with 28th place RodneyS then second with 30th place Weather53 in third. Looking at current departures, most people in that part of the table have the makings of one plausible snowstorm, while people down near the bottom have a requirement for one large storm or two moderate ones. My residual snowstorm is 13.7" BWI, 8.6" DCA, 18.2" IAD and 12.8" RIC. But I would settle for two that added up to that.

Updated winter snowfall totals migrating to the Feb thread (Feb 11th) ( as of Feb 5th)... DCA _12.3" NYC _15.5" BOS _ 37.4" ORD _ 21.9" DTW _ 28.6" BUF _ 73.5" DEN _ 21.7" SEA _ 9.2" BTV _ 46.3" ____________________________ Will be updating this list whenever new snow occurs, no new posts will appear.

Table of forecasts for January 2022 FORECASTER ____________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___DEN _PHX _SEA BKViking _________________+1.1 _+0.9 _+0.8 __ -1.6 _+1.2 _+2.8 __ -0.7 _ +1.5 _ -0.3 RodneyS _________________+1.0 _+1.5 _+1.4 __ -0.5 _+1.5 _+2.0 __ -0.1 _ +0.1 _ -2.1 RJay _____________________+1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 __ -1.5 _+1.0 _+3.0 ___ 0.0 _+2.5 __ 0.0 Scotty Lightning _________ +1.0 _+1.0 _+0.5 __ +0.5 _+1.5 _+1.5 __ +0.5 _+0.5 _-0.5 DonSutherland1 __________ +0.6 _+0.4 _-0.1 __ -2.6 _+3.0 _+2.5 __ -0.5 _-0.3 _-5.0 Roger Smith _____________ +0.3 _+0.1 _+0.5 __ -1.0 _ +1.2 _+2.5 __ +1.5 _+2.4 _-0.7 ____ Consensus __________ +0.3 _+0.2 _+0.2 __ -2.2 _ +1.1 _+1.8 __ -0.5 _+1.5 _-0.9 hudsonvalley21 __________ +0.3 _+0.1 __ 0.0 __ -2.8 _ +1.5 _+2.1 __ -0.9 _+0.5 _-2.4 Tom ______________________+0.1 _+0.3 _+0.4 __ -1.9 _ -1.1 _ -0.9 ___ -1.1 _ +1.1 _ +0.9 _____ Normal ______________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 so_whats_happening _____ -0.5 _-0.6 _-0.9 __ -3.1 _ +0.6 _ +1.2 __ -1.4 _+1.4 _ -1.8 wxallannj _________________ -0.6 _-0.7 _-0.8 __ -2.2 _ -1.0 _ +0.6 __ -0.9 _+1.5 _-2.2 wxdude64 ________________ -0.8 _-1.3 _-2.1 ___-2.7 _ -0.3 _+0.8 __ +0.4 _+1.7 _ -1.2 Stormchaser Chuck _______-2.5 _-3.0 _-3.5 __ -2.5 _ -1.0 __ 0.0 ___ -0.5 _+2.5 _+2.0 _____________________________________________ 12 forecasts, consensus is the median or average of 6th and 7th ranked forecasts. DZ who joined us by e-mail in 2021 not entering this month.

I have accomplished a lifelong dream, to underpredict a DCA snow report.

By the way my 1-3" fast in and out was meant for the I-95 corridor, probably 3-6" in a few spots just south of that, but still with the ground fairly warm and the fast motion, mid-day clearing trend, can't see this amounting to a big dump of snow for very many. Rates may be good for about 1-2 hours. May do better in central VA too. Better than nothing, anyway.

Fast 1-3 inches and out by lunch time? Just going too fast to do very much. Might be heavy snow for a few minutes though.

The contest has officially concluded at 21/7/4 and the winner is wxdude64, congrats. The full scoring summary can be seen back a few posts, as nothing has changed since then.

Thanks, I think that you two are the gold standard of this forecast contest and we all have a challenge to meet those standards. Good luck to everyone in 2022,

Thanks for these entries, I will check my e-mail for one more possibly ... and please note, as is our tradition in January, relaxed late penalty situation, anyone may adjust their numbers up until end of the 3rd if they wish, the table of entries will appear early on the 4th. No late penalties will be assessed so I wanted each on-time entrant to have the same opportunity to see and possibly utilize any last minute guidance. Currently nearly 00z Jan 3 so you have all day in z time on Monday to make adjustments. And if you haven't been in to check, all the scoring is finished over in the Dec 2021 thread. Don Sutherland1 held on to his lead despite a valiant late charge up the tables from RodneyS which if memory serves began around May or June from a position well back of the leaders at that point. Just a reminder of how the forecasts are scored ... Most months will be scored from 100 minus 2 points per 0.1 F deg error. Months that exceed a 5F anomaly (warm or cold) are scored with the excess portion counting only 1 point per 0.1 F deg error. That reduction applies both at the top end (5.0 to the value) and at the lower end (0.0 to corresponding equal interval). An example from last month, Dec 5.9 at DCA, your forecast would have scored 9 points to 0.9 then an additional 2 points per 0.1 F above 0.9, so if you predicted 2.5 then your raw score was 41. (see down for raw score adjustments) Months that exceed a 10F anomaly (warm or cold) are scored by taking your error and dividing it by the anomaly, times 10, so for example last month IAH was +12.4, a forecast of +3.0 would score (30/12.4) x 10 which is 24. If no raw score is 60 or higher, then forecasts are scored from rank order in equal increments depending on number of forecasts. With 12 forecasts I have been using 0.5 as the increment which means even the worst forecast got five points. Ties are given highest scores in the sequence but those behind tied forecasts drop down all the intervals used up. Anyone whose raw score would exceed the awarded adjusted score retains their raw score. However, I plan to adjust this in 2022 to the following system. Instead of going with intervals, I will score the forecasts from a statistical basis from 60 down to the lowest required interval. Then for example, if I had to boost scores from the 35 level to 60 and those from 30 down were okay as raw scores, the adjusted scores would be on a differential basis in the boosted interval, and could be either closer together or further apart than we've seen in the direct application of equal intervals. As an example, if I had to boost 3.0, 2.9, 2.8, 2.6, 2.3 and 1.9, with 1.7 the next highest forecast having a raw score of 32 for an outcome of +5.2, above the progression value of 30, then I would take (60-32) = 28 as the total range of adjusted scores, then 60 to xx the specific adjusted scores so that xx was at a value derived from the differential of 3.0 and 1.7 but using 30 for the base score (so it would be 0.2 of 1.3 of the 30 point interval which is still five rounded off). The adjusted scores for those that needed boosting would be 60, 57, 55, 50, 45, 35 which seems like a fairer outcome than the previous 60, 55, 50, 45, 40, 35 for them. It may not make a lot of difference in many cases but it will eliminate the odd scoring jogs between similar forecasts when raw scores don't work. I suppose the other approach would be to eliminate boosted scoring and just go with raw scores, if they are all low, too bad. But this makes each month more equally weighted and using golf as an example, it's worth the same to win a tournament at four over as it is at eighteen under par. A significant advantage can be gained by a forecast that eliminates the use of boosted scoring. If anyone has a raw score over 60, then all scores are raw scores. RodneyS had that going for DEN last month where his forecast was quite a bit closer to the large anomaly of +7.2 (at +5.6) than most of ours were, and he gained the full advantage as a result.

<<<< ============ - - - - Annual Scoring for 2021 (Jan-Dec) - - - - ============ >>>> High scores for nine locations shown in red, high scores for regions in bold. Change in rank is shown after forecaster name. No entry there means same position as last month. Consensus moved up one into the gap between 3rd and 4th place among forecasters. Normal dropped behind the final regular entrant (moi) and finished 12th. Prorated, second half entrant Deformation Zone was ahead of 9th place among the full-time entrants. Any changes shown for forecasters do not include forecasters moving past consensus or normal, or vice versa. Two pairs of forecasters exchanged ranks in December. The top three remained as before, 4th and 5th were exchanged, as were 6th and 7th. RodneyS in second moved from 107 back to 74 behind leader (and therefore contest winner) DonSutherland1. RodneyS would have finished 62 points back if I had not used the max 60 scoring rule, and both would have had fewer points in total (as would most others) -- I have now listed all raw score totals, does not look like the boosted scores made much difference to these ranks, but in any case, the rules were laid out before the contest year. RodneyS moved up quite steadily in the second half of the contest and fell just short of overtaking one final forecaster -- DonSutherland kept his forecasts close enough to RodneyS who was generally successful this month in going warm. If he had gone a bit warmer he might have been able to reach the top spot. Also RodneyS leads the contest in months won (three), and has a good record in best forecasts and extreme forecasts. But Don was consistently in the top half of the contests and held on for the win. Congrats to both of them, and also to BKViking who was third and managed to beat consensus, no mean feat. . FORECASTER _________________DCA_NYC_BOS__east _ ORD_ATL_IAH__cent __c/e ___ DEN_PHX_SEA__west___TOTALS DonSutherland1 ______________ 818 _866 _650 _ 2334 __763 _914 _835 _2512_ 4846__564 _805 _796 _2165___ 7011 RodneyS _____________________ 796 _843 _661 _ 2300 __ 659 _910 _772 _ 2341__4641 __680 _810 _796 _2286__ 6927 BKViking _____________________ 771 _846 _655 _ 2272 __ 611 _ 833 _753 _ 2197__4469 __633 _754 _816 _2203___6672 ___ Consensus (up 1) _________ 813 _862 _646 _ 2321 __597 _830 _762 _ 2189__4510 __608 _721 _772 _ 2101___ 6611 wxallannj (up 1) _____________ 777 _848 _609 _ 2234 __531 _821 _777 _ 2129__4363 __720 _687 _833 _2240 ___6603 Tom (down 1) ________________825 _909 _695 _ 2429__585 _743 _771 _ 2099__4528 __562 _687 _770 _2019___ 6547 RJay (up 1) __________________ 805 _861 _716 _ 2382 __687 _820 _680 _ 2187 __4569 __636 _654 _641 _1931___ 6500 hudsonvalley21 (down 1) ____765 _838 _654 _ 2257 __535 _807 _738 _ 2080__4337 __587 _754 _804_ 2145___ 6482 wxdude64 __________________ 773 _746 _565 _ 2084 __492 _815 _768 _ 2075 __4159 __624 _724 _709 _2057___ 6216 so_whats_happening ___________ 817 _777 _487 _ 2081 __580 _837 _643 _ 2060 __4141 __540 _678 _714 _ 1932___ 6073 Scotty Lightning _____________725 _770 _568 _ 2063 __436 _698 _681 _ 1815 __3878 __575 _659 _763 _ 1997___ 5875 Roger Smith __________________695 _648 _382 _ 1725 __555 _693 _819 _ 2067 __3792 __590 _658 _804 _2052__ 5844 ___ Normal (down 1) _________724 _692 _474 _ 1890__378 _769 _758 _ 1905__3795 __530 _676 _772 _1978___ 5773 Deformation Zone _ (6/12) ___ 353 _ 312 _304 __ 969 __282 _425 _385 __1092__ 2061 __284 _352 _386 _1022__3083 (for comparison prorated x2)^^ __ 706 _624 _608 _ 1938 __554 _836 _748 _ 2184 __ 4122 __ 568 _704 _772 _2044__6166 _ this may not be exact because scoring in the six months DZ has entered may have been higher or lower than avg. Stormchaser Chuck (1/12) ____ 020 _ 024 _ 064 _ 108 __080 _034 _068 _ 182 ___ 290 ___000 _ 010 _ 042_ 052 ___ 342 Best scores for the locations and regions FORECASTER ___________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ east __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __cent __c/e __ DEN _PHX _SEA __west __ Totals DonSutherland1 __________ 2 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 2 ______4 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 4 ____ 4 _____ 0 ____ 3 ____ 1 _____ 0 _____ 1 __ Jan RodneyS _________________ 2 ____ 2 ____ 2 _____ 1 ______ 2 ____ 3 ____ 2 ____ 4 ____ 2 _____ 1 ____ 2 ____ 0 ____ 2 _____ 3 __Feb,Jul,Dec BKViking __________________ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 1 ____ 0 ____ 3 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 3 _____0 ____ 1 __ Apr ___ Consensus ____________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0_____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____0 ____ 0 __ wxallannj _________________ 0 ____ 2 ____ 1 _____ 0 ______ 1 ____ 1 ____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 4 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 3 _____ 0 __ Tom ______________________ 2 ____ 2 ____ 1 _____ 2 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 2 _____ 1 ____ 1 __ May RJay ______________________ 2 ____ 3 ____ 5 _____ 2 ______ 2 ____ 1 ____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 2 _____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 2 __Sep,Oct* hudsonvalley21 ___________ 0 ____ 0 ____0 _____ 1 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____0 _____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 3 _____ 1 _____ 0 __ wxdude64 ________________ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 2 ______0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 2 _____ 1 __ Mar(t) so_whats_happening ______ 3 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 1 ____ 2 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 1 __ Mar (t) Scotty Lightning ___________ 2 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____0 ______ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ Roger Smith ________________1 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 2 ____ 2 ____ 3 ____ 2 ____ 1 _____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 3 _____ 2 ____ 3__Jun,Aug,Nov Deformation Zone __________0 ____ 0 ____ 2 _____ 0 ______1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____0 _____ 0 ___ Normal _________________ 2 ____ 1 ____ 2 _____ 1 ______ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ____ 3 ____1 _____ 1 _____ 1 __May,Jul ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * High score in Dec from adjusted scores went to RodneyS but RJay had a slightly higher total raw score before adjustments. (see part two of Dec scoring) EXTREME FORECAST STANDINGS High score must go to either the extreme warm or cold forecast, or second most extreme, for a station to qualify. This year, 82 locations out of 108 have qualified, 4 in Jan, 5 in Feb, 7 in March, 6 in April, 8 in May, June and July, 7 in August, 8 in September and October, 5 in November and 8 in December. Of those, 48 were awarded to warmest forecasts, 34 to coldest. A loss in the standings represents a case where second most extreme forecast had the high score and the win for that month. Normal can only win along with a forecaster. There have been nine shared wins (one by four and one by three) accounting for the excess of total wins (excl Normal). FORECASTER _______ Jan __Feb __Mar _ Apr _ May _Jun _ Jul _ Aug _Sep _ Oct_ Nov_ Dec __ TOTAL Roger Smith _________ 2-1 __2-0 __ --- __1-0 __ 1-0 __2-0 __ --- _ 3-1 _3-0 _ 0-1 _ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 16-3 RodneyS ____________ ---- __--- __ ---- __--- __ 2-1 __1-0 __ 6-0 _ --- _1-0 _ 1-0 _ ---- _4-0 _ 15-1 RJay _________________ --- __--- __ 2-0 __2-0 __ 1-0 __1-0 __ --- _ 1-0 _1-0 _ 1-0*_ --- _ 3-0 __ 12-0 wxallannj ____________ ---- __--- __ --- __3-0 __ 2-0 __3-0 __ --- _ 1-0 _--- _ 1-0 _ ---- _---- _ 10-0 DonSutherland1 _____ 2-0 __1-0 __ 2-0 __0-1 __ 2-0 __1-0 __ --- _ --- _1-0 _ 1-0 _ ---- _ ---- _ 10-1 ___ Normal ___________--- __ --- __ 2-0 __--- __ 1-0 __--- __ 5-0 _ 1-0 _--- _ 0-0 _ ---- _ ----__ 9-0 so_whats_happening _--- __1-0 __ 2-0 __--- __ --- __ 1-0 __ ---- _ --- _3-0 _ --- _ ---- _ ----__ 7-0 wxdude64 ___________ --- __1-0 __ 2-0 __--- __ --- __---- __ ---- _ 1-0 _ --- _ --- _ 1-0 _ ---- __ 5-0 Tom __________________--- __--- __ --- __--- __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ ---- _ ---- _---- _3-0 _ --- _ ----__ 5-0 Deformation Zone ___ ---- __--- __ --- __--- __ --- __ ---- __ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 1-1 _ ---- _ ---- __ 4-1 BKViking _____________ ---- __--- __ --- __--- __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ 0-1 _ --- _ 1-0 _ ---- _ 1-0 _ ---- __ 4-1 Scotty Lightning _____ ---- __--- __ ---- __--- __---- __ 1-1 __ 1-0 _ --- _ 1-0 _ --- _ ---- _ ----__ 3-1 hudsonvalley21 ______ ---- __--- __ --- __--- __ --- __ ---__ ---- _ --- _ ---- _ ---- _ 2-0 _ ---- __2-0 __________________________________ * RJay also had two other near-win efforts in October tied or very close to tied with others but late penalty interfered. These are called "no decision" outings in this contest. ===================================================

It's colder than a ____ ___ here if that helps. (-15 F)

+0.3 _ +0.1 _ +0.5 __ --1.0 _ +1.2 _ +2.5 ___ +1.5 _ +2.4 _ -0.7

Interesting to see that the previous Texas records were in 1933 because that was actually quite a cold month in the northeastern US and was followed by a near normal January and one of the coldest Februaries on record in 1934. The ridge must have been quite a bit narrower in 1933 than it has been this past month. Nov 1933 was also a cold month like it was to some extent this year.

With a day and a bit left to go this is the new state of play for 2021 among the top ten years for total precip (NYC): Rank __ YEAR ___ TOTAL PRECIP _ 01 ____ 1983 ____ 80.56" _ 02 ____ 2011 ____ 72.81" _ 03 ____ 1972 ____ 67.03" _ 04 ____ 2018 ____ 65.55" _ 05 ____ 1989 ____ 65.11" _ 06 ____ 2007 ____ 61.67" (2021 needs 1.94"to tie) _ 07 ____ 1975 ____ 61.21" (2021 needs 1.48" to tie) _ 08 ____ 1990 ____ 60.92" (2021 needs 1.19" to tie) _ 09 ____ 2006 ____ 59.89" (2021 needs 0.16" to tie) _ 10 ____ 2021 ____ 59.73" (to 4pm Dec 30) ------------------------------ Will update this although the models don't show very much additional rainfall potential before midnight 31st, if you could add the rain on Jan 1st then it might at least get to 9th, but without that it would probably stay just shy of 2006 in 10th place. ------------------------------- Memories of the mildest NYE-NYD 1965-66: As you probably guessed I am fairly ancient and was a teenager then, and (from home near Toronto) visiting relatives who were then living in Rahway, NJ over the holiday week. It was very mild on Christmas Eve and Day also, mid-50s at least. Records were set on both Dec 31 1965 (63F) and Jan 1 1966 (62F) and that temperature was probably observed at midnight as I recall it was thundering and lightning outside right around New Years Eve at that moment in time. I have the vague recollection of it being closer to 70F than that, perhaps it was a few degrees warmer over there than at the Park. The record high mins for both days were also set (51F Dec 31 and 52F Jan 1). That 52F on Jan 1 1966 was probably towards late evening, the overnight "low" was probably closer to 60 F. Looking at my data base I see that the six warmest NYE max temps are 1965 (63F), 1932 (62F), 1992 (61F) and 1895, 1936, 1990 (all 60F). The warmest NYD temps are 1966 (62F), 1919 (61F), 1973,1979,2005 (all 60F), and 1885 (59F). More recently, 58F in 2019 tied by 1876. No reason it couldn't be warmer though, Jan 2 1876 had 68F for a record high and Dec 29 1984 was 70F. Looks like 1884-85 had a similar situation to 1965-66 as the high on Dec 31 1884 was 58F.

Here's an update from winter ... the odd thing is that our super-cold spell is exactly six months after the heat dome, and temperature anomalies are cancelling out. We were in the worst part of the heat dome on June 30th, with a max here of 112 F. Today it was -5 F at sunrise and it hasn't warmed up much from that. Some high cloud layers are keeping the nights from dropping lower but the daytime readings are probably close to all-time records for this relatively mild part of the southern interior of BC (the Columbia valley). Wind chills are tolerable as wind speeds have been in the 10-20 mph range here. Some coastal inlets have had near hurricane force wind gusts from the outflow winds. Where they had the severe flooding a month ago, east of Vancouver, the landscape is now frozen solid and under a foot of snow. I wish I could give this a drop-kick through the goal posts of the central plains states to give you folks a taste, the problem is that getting cold in BC and the northeast US at the same time takes a very unusual configuration of the jet stream that we rarely see. The more normal teleconnection with a large cold anomaly over this region is a southwest flow into the eastern US. If the cold seeps further south it can get even more extreme, the classic example is mid-January of 1932 when it snowed at low elevations in LA while New York and Toronto were setting warmth records. Also in Jan 1950 our coldest month, NYC had its warmest January day (72F, later tied in 2007) and three separated intervals of record warmth. It did turn wintry for a time in late Feb 1950 when the cold relented over the west.

Most of these western Canada locations would have their all-time record lows in January 1950, for example Vancouver (YVR) airport was zero F during that record cold month and some places in northlcentral BC and Alberta were below -45 F. That location Edson does not have a long period of record but is also in a chinook location east of Jasper national park, so it runs a bit milder than many places in Alberta. Anyway the locals are saying this is about as cold as it gets although most of them were not born in 1950 so they may be in for a bit of a surprise. Okanagan Lake rarely freezes over but could this winter after this very cold spell so early in the season. The Arrow Lakes which are man-made on the Columbia River sometimes freeze and often have large patches of floating ice by February, so they might freeze this winter. Slocan Lake is a deeper but smaller lake than those and it has only frozen in three winters since 1950, including 1969 and 1986. It became partially frozen late in Feb 2019 which was a very cold month in this region too. The ice cover was not thick or continuous but people reported seeing floating rafts of ice in the central portion of the lake. Currently at -20 C or -4 F here, with a snow cover of 30 cm (12"), slight wind chill.

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to all. Will start this thread and see if we have a quorum for a contest in 2022. No late penalties until perhaps the 3rd of January, encourage your friends and even perfect strangers to join, I need people I can beat. Besides Normal. As always, predict the temperature anomalies relative to 1991-2020 in F deg, for these nine locations: DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA and let me know if you want to see any changes in the contest, either on the thread or by PM.

I dropped by to make a comment that seems to be in line with what people are seeing in subtle changes in the maps out around days 6-10, the cold air out here is not hammering south and will be met with some resistance, it won't just all settle into the Great Basin which can be a death sentence for winter on the east coast. In fact none of this cold air seems to be heading very far south of the border, currently there's a stubborn wave in eastern WA holding it back and even where I am the colder air is not here yet, nor does it look like it will get here until maybe Tuesday which means a lot of this severe arctic cold is going to bounce east through the prairies into northern Ontario. While there isn't a lot of southward push on it there, at least it gets close enough to be useful if the pattern does begin to change for the better. So it isn't looking like some carbon copy of 1949-50 with the large amplitude ridge-trough setup that kept it very mild in the east to mid-Feb (albeit there was some decent winter weather for a few weeks in late Feb and early Mar that winter) or worse 1948-49 which had severe blizzards in the Rocky Mountain states and the Great Basin and nothing but mild weather most of the winter in the east. Could be more like 1968-69 which had intervals of severe cold out this way but also a good coastal storm track and retrograde events indicating blocking over the eastern arctic. I think from what I can recall of that winter (very dry and a bit on the mild side in Ontario) there was just enough cold air around to feed into those coastal storms to give some decent snowfalls even though it wasn't what you would call a cold winter.

_ Final Scoring for December 2021 _ Scores are based on latest end of month projections in the previous post. Six locations needed the boost of "minimum progression" to max 60 and rank order scoring (unless raw scores for any forecaster higher at their scoring level). NYC just barely needed this boost but it did not make much difference to the scores shown as quite a few remain raw scores, while the other locations converted had larger differentials from a maximum raw score of 60. DEN had a large anomaly but RodneyS had a high enough raw score (84) that it prevented the scoring from being boosted there. PHX and BOS appear to be within the realm of normal scoring and for PHX we find the only two examples of forecasts which were more extreme than the outcome. Every other forecast fell short of the actual anomaly at other locations, although almost all of us had the right anomaly signs. I will let you know in the final report whether the boosts made much difference to the annual scoring outcome, for now I don't think it made any difference, the raw scores while lower in general would have been separated by about the same amounts as these results, within 20 points. As of 0615h EST Jan 1 the scoring is final, IAH has not confirmed a value yet but it will obviously require the scoring boost as shown (will be +12 or higher). _FORECASTER _____________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent _ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA__west___TOTAL RodneyS ____________________ 55^_ 45^_ 56 __ 156 __ 60^_ 60^_ 60^__ 180 __336 __ 84 _ 86 _ 12 __ 182 ___ 518 RJay ________________________ 60^_ 60^_ 80 __ 200 __55^_ 45^_ 15^ __ 115 __ 315 __ 68 _ 98 _ 20^__ 186 ___ 501 DonSutherland 1 ____________ 45^_ 40^_ 52 __ 137 __ 55^_ 50^_ 55^ __ 160 __ 297 __ 58 _ 92 _ 50^__ 200 ___ 497 Deformation Zone ___________40^_ 40^_ 50 __ 130 __ 30^_ 45^_ 45^ __ 120 __ 250 __ 38 _ 92 _ 50^__ 180 ___ 430 wxallannj ____________________50^_ 50^_ 50 __ 150 __ 20^_ 55^_ 35^ __ 110 __ 260 ___ 17 _ 68 _ 55^__ 140 ___ 400 hudsonvalley21 _____________ 15^_ 55^_ 44 __ 114 __ 45^_ 35^_ 50^ __ 130 __ 244 __ 38 _ 86 _ 16 ___140 ___ 384 BKViking ____________________ 30^_ 32 _ 50 __ 112 __ 40^_ 30^_ 25^ __ 095 __ 207 __ 28 _ 88 _ 50^__ 166 ___ 373 ___ Consensus _______________32^_ 34 _ 50 __ 116 __ 35^_ 30^_ 32^ __ 097 __ 213 __ 32 _ 88 _ 32^__ 152 ___ 365 so_whats_happening ________40^_ 28 _ 30 __ 098 __ 30^_ 15^_ 20^ __ 065 ___ 163 __ 20 _ 62 _ 35^__ 117 ___ 280 Tom _________________________25^_ 30 _ 50 __ 105 __ 40^_ 10^_ 05^ __ 055 __ 160 __ 15 _ 68 _ 30^ __ 113 ___ 273 Roger Smith ________________ 10^_ 10^_ 14 __ 034 __ 05^_ 05^_ 45^ __ 055 ___ 089 __ 28 _ 74 _ 60^__ 162 ___ 251 wxdude64 __________________ 05^_ 05^_ 12 __ 022 __ 10^_ 30^_ 30^ __ 070 ___ 092 __ 34 _ 84 _ 25^__ 143 ___ 235 Scotty Lightning ____________ 20^_ 26 _ 40 __ 086 __ 15^_ 20^_ 15^ __ 050 ___ 136 __ 05 _ 52 _ 05^___062 ___ 198 ___ Normal __________________ 12^_ 12^_ 30 __ 054 __ 12^_ 05^_ 00 ___ 017 ___ 071 __ 00 _ 32 _ 22^___ 054 ___ 125 ============================================================ EXTREME FORECAST REPORT Based on current projections, all locations but PHX would qualify. Seven are going to the warmest forecasts and one to the coldest (SEA). RJay has three wins at present and RodneyS has four, all for warmest forecasts. SEA will go to Roger Smith with coldest forecast. PHX did not qualify at +3.4 or higher as the third highest forecast has high score. _______________________________________________ Annual update will be posted at end of the contest only. From what I recall of the differentials, RodneyS has made up about half the ground needed to catch DonSutherland1. With most projected outcomes higher than (or lower than for SEA) all forecasts there isn't much room for adjustments of these differentials, but time will tell. ________________________________________________ (Scoring table with raw scores for the six locations that had some boosted scoring; totals of those and differentials from the above) _FORECASTER _____________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent _ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA__west___TOTAL ___ diff RodneyS ____________________ 33 _ 38 _ 56 __ 127 __ 39 _ 37 _ 38 __ 114 __241 __ 84 _ 86 _ 12 __ 182 ___ 423 (518) _ -95 RJay ________________________ 41 _ 56 _ 80 __ 177 __ 35 _ 20 _ 12 __ 067 __ 244 __ 68 _ 98 _ 20 __ 186 ___ 430 (501) _ -71 DonSutherland 1 ____________ 25 _ 36 _ 52 __ 113 __ 35 _ 24 _ 28 __ 087 __ 210 __ 58 _ 92 _ 30 __ 180 ___ 390 (497) _-107 Deformation Zone ___________21 _ 36 _ 50 __ 107 __ 10 _ 20 _ 20 __ 050 __ 157 __ 38 _ 92 _ 30 __ 160 ___ 317 (430) _ -113 wxallannj ____________________31 _ 40 _ 50 __ 121 __ 07 _ 26 _ 22 __ 055 __ 176 ___ 17 _ 68 _ 42 __ 127 ___ 400 (303) _ -97 hudsonvalley21 _____________ 07 _ 44 _ 44 __ 095 __ 21 _ 18 _ 24 __ 063 __ 158 __ 38 _ 86 _ 16 ___140 ___ 298 (383) _ -85 BKViking ____________________ 15 _ 32 _ 50 __ 097 __ 12 _ 16 _ 15 __ 043 __ 140 __ 28 _ 88 _ 30 __ 146 ___ 286 (373) _ -87 ___ Consensus _______________19 _ 34 _ 50 __ 103 __ 11 _ 17 _ 18 __ 046 __ 149 __ 32 _ 88 _ 26 __ 146 ___ 295 (365) -70 so_whats_happening ________21 _ 28 _ 30 __ 098 __ 10 _ 12 _ 15 __ 037 ___ 135 __ 20 _ 62 _ 28 __ 110 ___ 245 (280) -35 Tom _________________________13 _ 30 _ 50 __ 093 __ 12 _ 09 _ 09 __ 030 __ 123 __ 15 _ 68 _ 26 __ 109 ___ 232 (273) -41 Roger Smith ________________ 00 _ 00 _ 14 __ 014 __ 00 _ 00 _ 22 __ 022 ___ 036 __ 28 _ 74 _ 50 __ 152 ___ 188 (251) -63 wxdude64 __________________ 00 _ 00 _ 12 __ 012 __ 00 _ 16 _ 18 __ 034 ___ 046 __ 34 _ 84 _ 24 __ 142 ___ 188 (235) -47 Scotty Lightning ____________ 11 _ 26 _ 40 __ 077 __ 05 _ 15 _ 13 __ 033 ___ 110 __ 05 _ 52 _ 00 ___057 ___ 167 (198) -31 ___ Normal __________________00 _ 06 _ 30 __ 036 __ 00 _ 00 _ 00 __ 000 ___ 036 __ 00 _ 32 _ 20 __ 052 ___088 (125) -37 ++++++++++++++++++ The only significant difference applying the raw scores would be that RJay had high score for Dec. Both pairs of exchanged final rankings would have been the same. Clearly the rich get richer in this boosted score by ranks, so I might give some thought to a slight variation which would be max 60 and other scores from a curve so that differentials would directly affect the scoring.

Thanks Don, I suspected that might be the case. So we can remove 1870-71 from the list. I seem to recall getting some snowfall adjustments from you when I first started working with the data base, but that one needs to be adjusted (in my data set). Will see what I can find out. Looking at the rest of the 1870s I don't think this problem extends much further than that one winter.