Roger Smith

Looks like Ida was taking a selfie.

Appears to be heading steadily towards the mouth of the Mississippi or within 25 miles west of that for landfall, and it reminds me of the 1900 Galveston hurricane which probably peaked around landfall at cat-4. I will take their word for the reduced surge threat where the levees are in place but what about water flooding up from the Gulf through low-lying areas west of the River? Has that been fortified at all? It has probably been quite a long time since this type of inundation occurred so close to greater New Orleans, cases that come to mind were further west.

Isn't the dynamic for Lake Pontchartrain rising water levels from a surge entering from the east? I don't think the northerly wind after Katrina was the real killer for the weakening barriers, it was the rising water levels. This track could bring surges inland through the swamps and up the Mississippi and also raise Lake Pontchartrain levels but that work done since 2005 might help. I think this will play out as worse for wind damage and in some parishes west of NOLA worse for flooding. It may be equal for wind damage along the MS coast, or not quite as bad. At this point I think evacuating west makes a lot more sense than east, as long as you go at least as far as east Texas.

On a regional basis this could be higher impact than Katrina, where all storm surge came in from the east and affected mostly areas southeast of New Orleans rather than west. This one is about 50 miles further west, and storm surge will come into regions on the west side of the Mississippi but could also repeat Katrina's surge into the southeast. Also it looks like it could be stronger in terms of wind gusts.

On track to pass this buoy just to the west in about 12 hours ... https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42003 Looking at all guidance, the thing that stands out is the lack of any disruptive influences, so that given the SST values ahead of the storm, intensification could be extreme. I think cat-4 is most likely but cat-5 is possible (around 28-29N). Also the track looks quite bad for surge issues not directly related to Lake Pontchartrain so that outcomes may need to be assessed independent of that sort of surge (although it could come into the mix and be partially mitigated by the aforementioned upgrades). Since no organized evacuation efforts seem likely, would hope that a very poor second best response is scrambled into place, which would be to position all possible military water rescue assets around Lake Charles through the day Saturday into Sunday morning, with the objective of moving them into affected regions Sunday night and Monday once a clear idea exists about where they are most needed. They are probably going to be needed urgently in parishes south and west of New Orleans if not in the city itself.

The table produced last week showing the counts you need now to reach your forecast targets has been updated on the assumption that Ida does make it to major (the first two numbers in this revised count are already verified). This table will be adjusted if Ida does not become a major, and also at any point that the count changes again (with two likely candidates out there this could be soon although I might wait for those to show their potential before doing the adjustments). (added later _ currently 10/4/2 with Julian, waiting to see what happens to TD 10 and these two both seem likely to remain only TS intensity, but will adjust the table after they are done with their work). (later _ Julian has already been declared post-tropical after a brief spell as a TS -- will now update the table for this known element). Some of our forecasts look very promising at this point with quite plausible "rest of season" counts to verify.

Final scores for August 2021 Scores are based on the end of month values in the previous post above. BOS scores have been set by minimum progression (60, 55, 50 etc) as highest raw score was 56. However, some of the lower raw scores are maintained since they turned out higher than the progression values. The boosted scores have this symbol ^. 1% reductions for BKViking are incorporated into the scoring (*) FORECASTER __________DCA_NYC_BOS__east _ORD_ATL_IAH__cent_c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west ___ TOTAL Roger Smith ____________100 _ 92 _60^__ 252__ 74_ 74 _ 96 __ 244 _ 496 _ 80 _ 74 _ 86 __ 240 ____ 736 wxallannj _______________ 94 _100 _ 55^__ 249 __ 68 _ 80 _ 60 __ 208 _ 457 _ 78 _ 74 _ 92 __244 ____ 701 wxdude64 ______________ 76 _ 84 _ 50^__ 210 __ 58 _ 88 _ 68 __ 214 _ 424 __ 72 _ 46 _ 98 __216 ____ 640 RJay ____________________ 90 _ 96 _ 30 __ 216 __ 34 _ 96 _ 84 __ 214 _ 430 _100_ 44 _ 62 __206 ____ 636 BKViking ____ (-1%) _____ 79*_ 87*_ 30 __196 __ 42 _ 91*_ 97*__230 _ 426 _ 79*_ 53*_ 71*__203 ____ 629 Scotty Lightning ________ 90 _ 92 _ 45^__ 227 __ 54 _ 74 _ 76 __ 204 _ 431 _ 70 _ 34 _ 92 __ 196 ____ 627 ___ Consensus __________ 80 _ 90 _ 32 __ 202 __ 44 _ 90 _ 82 __ 216 _ 418 _ 76 _ 54 _ 78 __ 208 ____ 626 RodneyS ________________62 _ 70 _ 35^__ 171 __ 68 _ 86 _ 70 __ 224 __ 395 _ 58 _ 80 _ 78 __ 216 ____ 611 Tom _____________________74 _ 82 _ 26 __ 182 __ 32 _ 86 _ 94 __ 212 _ 394 __ 80 _ 54 _ 80 __ 214____ 608 hudsonvalley21 _________ 80 _ 90 _ 24 __ 194 __ 20 _ 86 _ 80 __ 186 _ 380 _ 82 _ 50 _ 78 __ 210 ____ 590 ___ Normal ______________70 _ 72 _ 16 __ 158 __ 34 _ 96 _ 84 __ 214 _ 372 __ 50 _ 64 _ 98 __ 212 ____ 584 Deformation Zone ______ 70 _ 82 _ 45^__ 197 __ 44 _ 76 _ 44 __ 164 _ 361 __ 60 _ 86 _ 72 __ 216 ____ 577 so_whats_happening ___ 86 _ 92 _ 05^ __ 183 __ 06 _ 90 _ 92 __ 188 _ 371 _ 72 _ 58 _ 74 __ 204 ____ 575 DonSutherland1 _________78 _ 84 _ 26 __ 188 __ 34 _ 82 _ 64 __ 180 _ 368 __ 54 _ 46 _ 70 __ 170 ____ 538 __________________________________________________________ EXTREME FORECAST REPORT DCA _ At +1.5 Roger Smith with warmest forecast (+1.5) has a win. NYC _ At +1.4 wxallannj (+1.4) has a win, Roger Smith (+1.8) a loss. BOS _ At +4.2 Roger Smith with warmest forecast (+2.0) has a win. ORD _ At +3.3 Roger Smith with warmest forecast (+2.0) has a win. DEN _ at +2.5, RJay with warmest forecast (+2.5) takes a win. PHX _ At -1.8 Deformation Zone with coldest forecast (-2.5) has a win. SEA _ At +0.1 wxdude64 with coldest forecast (+0.2) has a win. Normal also scores a win. ATL, IAH did not qualify for extreme forecasts.

Current top 21 July-August total rainfalls at NYC Rank __ Year __ JUL __ AUG ___ total _01 ____ 2011 __ 3.03 _ 18.95 __ 21.98 _02 ____ 2021 _ 11.09 __ 9.65 __ 20.74 (five days to add) _03 ____ 1971 __ 7.20 __ 9.37 __ 16.57 _04 ____ 1927 __ 6.48 __ 9.83 __ 16.31 _05 ____ 1942 __ 7.15 __ 9.08 __ 16.23 _06 ____ 1889 _ 11.89 __ 4.27 __ 16.16 _07 ____ 2018 __ 7.45 __ 8.59 __ 16.04 _08 ____ 1990 __ 3.51 _ 12.36 __ 15.87 _09 ____ 1975 _ 11.77 __ 3.05 __ 14.82 _ 10 ____ 1960 __ 8.29 __ 6.26 __ 14.55 _ 11 ____ 1919 __ 8.50 __ 5.82 __ 14.32 _ 12 ____ 1901 __ 7.64 __ 6.55 __ 14.19 _ 13 ____ 1873 __ 4.61 __ 9.56 __ 14.17 _ 14 ____ 1872 __ 7.83 __ 6.29 __ 14.12 _ 15 ____ 2007 __ 6.89 __ 7.18 __ 14.07 _ 16 ____ 1875 __ 4.86 __ 8.97 __ 13.83 _ 17 ____ 1880 __ 8.53 __ 5.26 __ 13.79 _ 18 ____ 1926 __ 6.38 __ 7.28 __ 13.66 _ 19 ____ 1989 __ 5.13 __ 8.44 __ 13.57 _ 20 ____ 1928 __ 8.89 __ 4.57 __ 13.46 _ 21 ____ 1897 __ 9.56 __ 3.77 __ 13.33 _______________________________________________ With only 2.62" in June, the met-summer total for 2021 is currently 23.36" which is ranked second -- 2011 remains ahead at 25.23" and 1975 is third at 22.40" while 1989 fourth at 22.36" -- seems then that 2021 has a chance of finishing as wettest met summer. It needs 1.88" more to beat 2011. (1903 not in the above list had 20.43" thanks to a very wet June ... 20th place 1928 above moved well up the list for summer with 20.50" as June also quite wet). 2003 is well up the list thanks to a very wet June, its JJA total was 19.87" but it was well outside this list for JA. The same is true for 2006 which had a total of 20.79" but only 12.24" of that in July-Aug. A third example is 2009 with a summer total of 21.38" thanks to 10.05" in June. 2007 had almost the same summer total as 2006 (20.62") but qualified for the above list in 15th adding 6.55" inches from June. Current top twenty for summer totals ... 1. 2011 (25.23) ________ 11. 2003 (19.87) 2. 2021 (23.36) _______ 12. 1942 (19.82) 3. 1975 (22.40) _______ 13. 2018 (19.15) 4. 1989 (22.36) _______ 14. 1971 (18.88) 5. 2009 (21.38) _______ 15. 1889 (18.55) 6. 2006 (20.79) ______ 16. 1990 (18.37) 7. 2007 (20.62) _______ 17. 1871 (18.22) 8. 1928 (20.50) _______ 18. 1919 (18.16) 9. 1903 (20.43) _______ 19. 1884 (17.62) 10. 1927 (20.01) _______ 20. 1967 (17.57) Note that seven of the top 13 are in the period 2003 to 2021. Half of the list dates back only to 1975 (the most recent 47 cases with 106 others taking the other half, note three cases from 1967 to 1975 and the only other semblance of a cluster was 1919 to 1928 with three.

Predict the temperature anomalies (relative to 1991-2020 normal values) for DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA (deadline 06z Wed Sep 1 2021)

I would say probably yes it does exceed 10" by about Saturday 28th as weak fronts stall and waves move along them, but as to amounts, could be anywhere from 1-4 inches, so may only just make it. Toronto has weather records going back to 1840 and the early 1840s had some very heavy rainfalls there, which are probably before most U.S. stations began their observing periods, although Caswell's Providence RI journal operated from 1831 to 1860. There were no examples of two months both hitting 10" or more at Toronto but in years from 1841 to 1843 there was enough rain at Toronto to suggest to me that it might be quite likely some U.S. locations which may have been in the path of tropical remnants that were part of these events may have reached totals that high. Rainfall was particularly excessive in late July and early August of 1841, and September of 1843. I found five or six week intervals that measured over 12" of rain in both cases. Looking now at Caswell's journal the highest two month total I found was 14.75" in July-Aug 1853. However his journal indicates that a rainfall on the night of July 12-13 1834 overflowed the capacity of his seven inch rain gauge and he isn't sure how much actually fell that night. Although his journal is admirable for general completeness and attention to detail, there are a few missing days and possibly missing precip on a few occasions, also it was interesting that when a hurricane hit the region on Oct 7, 1849, he details the events but never mentions the word hurricane (this is listed as a cat2-3 landfall that caused over a hundred deaths in s.e. MA -- the track looks like it went just barely to the east of Providence since he never got into tropical air and winds went strong NE to NW). If you don't already have this bookmarked, the journal can be seen in its entirety here: https://books.google.ca/books?id=oYY_AAAAcAAJ&pg=PA168&source=gbs_toc_r&cad=3#v=onepage&q&f=false If that fails to load, look for the wikipedia entry for Alexis Caswell and then in the footnotes, the reference to his weather journal which was preserved by the Smithsonian Institute. Caswell is seen as one of the forerunners of development of late 19th century meteorological science in America.

CONTINUED REPORT ON WEEKLY EXTREMES for WEEKS ENDING IN AUGUST Intervals _______________ Highest values 1869-2022 __ Lowest values 1869-2022 July 26 - Aug 1 ___________ (max) 94.14 _ 1999 _____ (max) 73.00 _ 2000 July 26 - Aug 1 ___________ (min) 75.86 _ 1995 ______ (min) 61.43 _ 1920 July 26 - Aug 1 __________ (mean) 84.29 _ 1999 ____ (mean) 69.07 _ 2000 _ the wettest week ending Aug 1 was 1889 (8.45") July 27 - Aug 2 ___________ (max) 94.43 _ 1933 _____ (max) 75.29 _ 2000 July 27 - Aug 2 ___________ (min) 76.57 _ 2006 ______ (min) 61.43 _ 1871 July 27 - Aug 2 __________ (mean) 84.21 _ 1995^____ (mean) 69.29 _ 1914 _^ 84.14 1917 _ the wettest week ending Aug 2 was 1889 (8.47") July 28 - Aug 3 ___________ (max) 95.00 _ 1933 _____ (max) 75.00 _ 1875 July 28 - Aug 3 ___________ (min) 77.14 _ 2006 ______ (min) 61.14 _ 1914 July 28 - Aug 3 __________ (mean) 84.64 _ 2006^____ (mean) 68.64 _ 1914 _^ 84.50 1933 _ the wettest week ending Aug 3 was 1971 (6.61") July 29 - Aug 4 __________ (max) 94.43 _ 1933_2002 __ (max) 75.43 _ 1875 July 29 - Aug 4 ___________ (min) 77.29 _ 2006 ______ (min) 61.71 _ 1956 July 29 - Aug 4 __________ (mean) 84.00 _ 1999^____ (mean) 69.50 _ 1914 _ the wettest week ending Aug 4 was 1971 (6.68") July 30 - Aug 5 __________ (max) 93.71 _ 2002 ______ (max) 75.43 _ 1978 July 30 - Aug 5 ___________ (min) 77.00 _ 2006 ______ (min) 60.14 _ 1912 July 30 - Aug 5 __________ (mean) 84.57 _ 2006 ____ (mean) 68.93 _ 1912 _ the wettest week ending Aug 5 was 1889 (6.41") July 31 - Aug 6 __________ (max) 95.00 _ 1955 ______ (max) 73.29 _ 1903 July 31 - Aug 6 ___________ (min) 76.29 _ 2006 ______ (min) 59.00 _ 1912 July 31 - Aug 6 __________ (mean) 84.71 _ 1955 ____ (mean) 67.79 _ 1903 _ the wettest week ending Aug 6 was 1878 (6.22") Aug 1 - Aug 7 __________ (max) 96.14 _ 1955 ______ (max) 73.43 _ 1886_1903 Aug 1 - Aug 7 ___________ (min) 76.43 _ 2006 ______ (min) 58.86 _ 1912 Aug 1 - Aug 7 __________ (mean) 85.71 _ 1955 ____ (mean) 66.36 _ 1886 _ the wettest week ending Aug 7 was 1878 (6.22") Aug 2 - Aug 8 __________ (max) 94.00 _ 1955 ______ (max) 72.43 _ 1903 Aug 2 - Aug 8 ___________(min) 75.57 _ 1908,2022 _ (min) 58.00 _ 1886 Aug 2 - Aug 8 __________ (mean) 84.21 _ 1955 ____ (mean) 65.79 _ 1886 _ the wettest week ending Aug 8 was 1915 (4.79") Aug 3 - Aug 9 __________ (max) 93.57^_ 1980_2001 __ (max) 72.00 _ 1903 __ 2022 92.14 Aug 3 - Aug 9 ___________ (min) 76.43 _ 2022 ______ (min) 58.71 _ 1886 __ 1908 76.29 Aug 3 - Aug 9 __________ (mean) 84.86 _ 1980 ____ (mean) 66.29 _ 1866 _ the wettest week ending Aug 9 was 1976 (4.89") __ ^There was hot weather in this period in 1918 with the August maximum of 104F on the 7th, but the highest 7-day average was 90.57 for Aug 3-9. Aug 4 - Aug 10 __________ (max) 95.29 _ 2001 _____ (max) 72.71 _ 1903 Aug 4 - Aug 10 ___________ (min) 77.57* _ 1896 ______ (min) 60.00 _ 1886 *_ 2022 77.00 Aug 4 - Aug 10 __________ (mean) 85.93*_ 1896 ___ (mean) 66.79 _ 1903 *_ 85.57 2001 _ the wettest week ending Aug 10 was 1990 (8.46") Aug 5 - Aug 11 __________ (max) 95.14 _ 1896 ______ (max) 73.43 _ 1903 Aug 5 - Aug 11 ___________ (min) 78.86*_ 1896 ______ (min) 61.00 _ 1883_94 *_ 2022 76.43 Aug 5 - Aug 11 __________ (mean) 87.00 _ 1896 ____ (mean) 68.21 _ 1886 _ the wettest week ending Aug 11 was 1990 (9.96") _ Aug maximum weekly total Aug 6 - Aug 12 __________ (max) 95.00 _ 1896 ______ (max) 74.57 _ 1903 Aug 6 - Aug 12 ___________ (min) 79.14 _ 1896 ______ (min) 61.14 _ 1883 Aug 6 - Aug 12 __________ (mean) 87.07 _ 1896 ____ (mean) 68.07 _ 1903 _ the wettest week ending Aug 12 was 1990 (9.85") Aug 7 - Aug 13 __________ (max) 94.71 _ 1896 ______ (max) 74.71 _ 1884 Aug 7 - Aug 13 ___________ (min) 79.00 _ 1896 ______ (min) 61.14 _ 1989 Aug 7 - Aug 13 __________ (mean) 86.86 _ 1896 ____ (mean) 68.14 _ 1903 _ the wettest week ending Aug 13 was 1955 (8.25") Aug 8 - Aug 14 __________ (max) 94.29 _ 1944 ______ (max) 74.71 _ 1903 Aug 8 - Aug 14 ___________ (min) 78.57 _ 1896 ______ (min) 60.57 _ 1919 Aug 8 - Aug 14 __________ (mean) 85.50 _ 1896^____ (mean) 68.36 _ 1903 _^ 85.36_1988 _ the wettest week ending Aug 14 was 2011 (7.90") Aug 9 - Aug 15 __________ (max) 95.71 _ 1944^______ (max) 75.43 _ 1962 _^ 95.29 _ 1988 Aug 9 - Aug 15 ___________ (min) 78.00 _ 1988 ______ (min) 59.43 _ 1964 Aug 9 - Aug 15 __________ (mean) 86.64 _ 1988 ____ (mean) 67.86 _ 1962 _ the wettest week ending Aug 15 was 2011 (8.46") Aug 10 - Aug 16 __________ (max) 96.86 _ 1944 ______ (max) 74.43 _ 1883 Aug 10 - Aug 16 ___________ (min) 78.14 _ 1988 ______ (min) 59.86 _ 1964 Aug 10 - Aug 16 __________ (mean) 86.21 _ 1988 ____ (mean) 68.43 _ 1883_94 _ the wettest week ending Aug 16 was 1955 (7.35") Aug 11 - Aug 17 __________ (max) 96.57 _ 1944 ______ (max) 74.00 _ 1909 Aug 11 - Aug 17 ___________ (min) 77.86 _ 1988 ______ (min) 59.71 _ 1963_79 Aug 11 - Aug 17 __________ (mean) 85.86 _ 1944 ____ (mean) 67.57 _ 1930 _ the wettest week ending Aug 17 was 1955 (7.30") Aug 12 - Aug 18 __________ (max) 94.57 _ 2002 ______ (max) 72.86 _ 1919 Aug 12 - Aug 18 ___________ (min) 76.86 _ 1908_88 ___ (min) 59.57 _ 1979 Aug 12 - Aug 18 __________ (mean) 85.29 _ 2002 ____ (mean) 67.00 _ 1979 _ the wettest week ending Aug 18 was 1955 (7.60") Aug 13 - Aug 19 __________ (max) 94.29 _ 2002 ______ (max) 72.00 _ 1919 Aug 13 - Aug 19 ___________ (min) 76.71 _ 2016 ______ (min) 58.71 _ 1964 Aug 13 - Aug 19 __________ (mean) 85.29 _ 2002 ____ (mean) 67.07 _ 1919 _ the wettest week ending Aug 19 was 2011 (7.70") Aug 14 - Aug 20 __________ (max) 92.00 _ 2002 ______ (max) 72.86 _ 1881 Aug 14 - Aug 20 ___________ (min) 75.14 _ 2016 ______ (min) 58.43 _ 1964 Aug 14 - Aug 20 __________ (mean) 83.14 _ 2002 ____ (mean) 67.21 _ 1887_1927 _ the wettest week ending Aug 20 was 2011 (7.70") Aug 15 - Aug 21 __________ (max) 91.57 _ 1959 ______ (max) 73.86 _ 1881_1927 Aug 15 - Aug 21 ___________ (min) 75.00 _ 2015 ______ (min) 58.71 _ 1886 Aug 15 - Aug 21 __________ (mean) 82.50 _ 1959_2015 __ (mean) 66.71 _ 1927 _ the wettest week ending Aug 21 was 1873 (5.63") Aug 16 - Aug 22 __________ (max) 90.71 _ 1959 ______ (max) 72.29 _ 2007 Aug 16 - Aug 22 ___________ (min) 74.43 _ 2015 ______ (min) 57.86 _ 1886 Aug 16 - Aug 22 __________ (mean) 81.93 _ 1959 ____ (mean) 66.50 _ 2007 _ the wettest week ending Aug 22 was 1873 (5.73") _ this record was broken on Aug 22, 2021 when a weekly total of 7.32" was achieved. Aug 17 - Aug 23 __________ (max) 89.14 _ 1983 ______ (max) 71.14 _ 2007 Aug 17 - Aug 23 ___________ (min) 75.57 _ 1906 ______ (min) 57.14 _ 1886 Aug 17 - Aug 23 __________ (mean) 80.93 _ 1906 ____ (mean) 65.07 _ 2007 _ the wettest week ending Aug 23 was 1933 (5.80") _ this record was broken on Aug 22, 2021 when a weekly total of 7.32" was achieved. Another 1.07" fell on Aug 23 making the new record 8.39". Aug 18 - Aug 24 __________ (max) 88.57 _ 1983 ______ (max) 70.86 _ 2007 Aug 18 - Aug 24 ___________ (min) 74.86 _ 1906 ______ (min) 56.43 _ 1886 Aug 18 - Aug 24 __________ (mean) 80.29 _ 1906 ____ (mean) 65.21 _ 2007 _ the wettest week ending Aug 24 was 1893 (7.75") _ this record is now broken with a total from 18th to 24th of 8.39" . Aug 19 - Aug 25 __________ (max) 88.00 _ 1972_83 ____ (max) 72.14 _ 1926 Aug 19 - Aug 25 ___________ (min) 74.00 _ 1906 ______ (min) 57.29 _ 1886 Aug 19 - Aug 25 __________ (mean) 79.86 _ 2015 ____ (mean) 67.00 _ 1940 _ the wettest week ending Aug 25 was 1893 (7.75") _ this record is now broken with a total from 19th to 25th 2021 of 8.39". Aug 20 - Aug 26 __________ (max) 88.86 _ 1976 ____ (max) 72.57 _ 1926 Aug 20 - Aug 26 ___________ (min) 73.14*_ 1891 ______ (min) 56.43 _ 1940 _ *73.00 2021 Aug 20 - Aug 26 __________ (mean) 79.64 _ 1939_2021 ____ (mean) 65.00 _ 1940 _ the wettest week ending Aug 26 was 1893 (6.41") _ this record is now broken with a total from 20th to 26th 2021 of 8.19". Aug 21 - Aug 27 __________ (max) 89.86 _ 1948 ____ (max) 71.29 _ 1927 Aug 21 - Aug 27 ___________ (min) 73.86*_ 1891 ______ (min) 55.86 _ 1940 * 73.00_2021 Aug 21 - Aug 27__________ (mean) 80.21 _ 1948 ____ (mean) 64.29 _ 1940 * 79.71_2021 _ the wettest week ending Aug 27 was 1933 (5.65") _ this record is now broken with a total from 21st to 27rd 2021 of 8.86". _____________________________________________________________ ^^ This interval has less impressive late summer warmth than the next week or two, with heat waves in 1948 and 1953 for example pushing average weekly maxima back up to around 95 F or higher. _____________________________________________________________ Aug 22 - Aug 28 __________ (max) 92.29 _ 1948 ____ (max) 70.29 _ 1927 Aug 22 - Aug 28 ___________ (min) 72.86 _ 1891*______ (min) 56.00 _ 1940 * 72.29_2021 Aug 22 - Aug 28 __________ (mean) 82.29 _ 1948 ____ (mean) 63.21 _ 1940 _ the wettest week ending Aug 28 was 2011 (7.36") Aug 23 - Aug 29 __________ (max) 94.43 _ 1948^____ (max) 69.57 _ 1940 _^ 1980_91.86 Aug 23 - Aug 29 ___________ (min) 74.00*_ 1948 ______ (min) 55.71 _ 1940 *_ 2022 73.00 Aug 23 - Aug 29 __________ (mean) 84.21 _ 1948 ____ (mean) 62.64 _ 1940 _ the wettest week ending Aug 29 was 2011 (7.36") Aug 24 - Aug 30 __________ (max) 95.00 _ 1948 ____ (max) 68.86 _ 1940 Aug 24 - Aug 30 ___________ (min) 75.29*_ 1948 ______ (min) 56.29 _ 1940 *__ 2022 73.14 Aug 24 - Aug 30 __________ (mean) 85.14 _ 1948 ____ (mean) 62.57 _ 1940 _ the wettest week ending Aug 30 was 2011 (7.36") Aug 25 - Aug 31 __________ (max) 95.86 _ 1953*____ (max) 70.14 _ 1908 Aug 25 - Aug 31 ___________ (min) 74.43 _ 1948 ______ (min) 55.14 _ 1887 Aug 25 - Aug 31 __________ (mean) 84.64 _ 1953^____ (mean) 62.93 _ 1887 _^ 1948_84.50 _ the wettest week ending Aug 31 was 2011 (7.36") _ note that for the last four rainfall maxima which are all identical (7.36" in 2011) all of this rainfall occurred on 25th to 28th and 6.87" fell on Aug 27-28. _____________________________________________ * 1953 peaked at 98.29 for both Aug 27-Sep 2 and Aug 28-Sep 3 and holds the first four high maxima for September. A parallel heat wave in 1973 ran only slightly cooler and peaked at 95.71 for Aug 28-Sep 3. The 1973 heat wave did manage to take one of the high min spots for Aug 26-Sep 1 before 1953 began to accumulate those as well. The recent 2021 heat came as close as tying some mean minimum and daily marks, but was not that close to mean maximum.

Contest standings (Aug 25th 2021) __ declared final Sep 26th 2021 __ FORECASTER ________________DCA _NYC _BOS __ORD _BIS _ATL _IAH __ DEN _PHX _SEA__ Total dep wxallannj _______________________98 __ 96 __ 97 __ 96 _ 106 __ 97 __ 99 ___ 103 _ 121 __ 92 __ departures __________________ 1 ___ 2 ___ 3 ____ 1 ___ 1 ____ 2 ____ 0 _____ 1 ___ 3 ___ 16 ____ 30 hudsonvalley21 _______________100 _ 100 __ 99 _ 100 _ 106 ___99 _ 103 ___ 103 _ 120 __ 99 __ departures __________________ 3 ___ 2 ___ 1 ____ 5 ___ 1 ____ 4 ____ 4 _____ 1 ___ 2 ____ 9 ____ 32 BKViking ______________________100 __ 98 __ 98 __ 98 _ 109 ___99 __ 98 ___ 106 _ 119 __ 95 __ departures __________________ 3 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____ 3 ___ 2 ____ 4 ____ 1 _____ 4 ___ 1 ___ 13 ____ 33 ___ consensus (mean) _________101 __ 98 __ 99 __ 99 _ 107 _ 100 _ 103 ___ 103 _ 119 __ 95 __ departures __________________ 4 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 4 ___ 0 ____ 5 ____ 4 _____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 13 ____ 33 DonSutherland 1 ______________102 __ 96 __ 98 __ 97 _ 106 ___99 _ 103 ___ 102 _ 119 __ 94 __ departures __________________ 5 ___ 2 ___ 2 ____ 2 ___ 1 ____ 4 ____ 4 _____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 14 ____ 35 so_whats_happening __________ 99 __ 96 __ 98 __ 99 _ 108 _ 101 __ 99 ___ 104 _ 116 __ 94 __ departures __________________ 2 ___ 2 ___ 2 ____ 4 ___ 1 ____ 6 ____ 0 _____ 2 ___ 2 ___ 14 ____ 35 RJay __________________________101 __ 96 __ 99 _ 100 _ 106 ___99 _ 102 ___ 101 _ 119 __ 94 __ departures __________________ 4 ___ 2 ___ 1 ____ 5 ___ 1 ____ 4 ____ 3 _____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 14 ____ 36 Tom __________________________ 100 __ 98 __ 98 _ 101 _ 107 _ 101 __ 104 ___ 101 _ 121 __ 98 __ departures __________________ 3 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____ 6 ___ 0 ____ 6 ____ 5 _____ 1 ___ 3 ___ 10 ____ 36 wxdude64 ____________________103 _ 100 _ 101 __ 99 _ 108 __ 99 _ 104 ___ 104 _ 117 __ 96 __ departures __________________ 6 ___ 2 ___ 1 ____ 4 ___ 1 ____ 4 ____ 5 _____ 2 ___ 1 ___ 12 ____ 38 Roger Smith __________________101 __ 99 _ 100 __ 98 _ 110 __ 101 _ 106 ___ 107 _ 119 __ 99 __ departures __________________ 4 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 3 ___ 3 ____ 6 ____ 7 _____ 5 ___ 1 ____ 9 ____ 39 Scotty Lightning ______________104 _ 101 __ 98 __ 97 _ 106 _ 105 _ 109 ____ 97 _ 117 __ 92 __ departures __________________ 7 ___ 3 ___ 2 ____ 2 ___ 1 ___ 10 ___ 10 _____ 5 ___ 1 ___ 16 ____ 57 Highest to date __ (updated Aug 25) _____________ 97 __ 98 __100 __ 95 _ 107 __ 95 __ 99 ____102 __118 _ 108 _______________________________________________________________________________________ Scores for SEA are no doubt final with the all-time record high set (108F) well above all forecasts. There is probably a slight chance that any other location could edge higher, although PHX and DEN are probably done. This is therefore not the final order of the contest, and the standings are quite close near the top. (Sep 26 ... no hotter days occurred at any locations so the contest is being declared final, see next post) Quote

Here's a link to historical weather maps for Aug 21-22 1888. Also check the wikipedia entry for 1888 H3. I noticed that BOS set their Aug 22 record with this same system (3.36"). https:/www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?map=2&model=noaa&var=1&jaar=1888&maand=08&dag=22&uur=0000&h=0&tr=360&nmaps=24#mapref The 4.19" at NYC on 21st was topped up with 0.13" more on 22nd for a total event rainfall of 4.32"

I hadn't looked at it until this happened, it now becomes one of the heaviest 24h rainfalls not to be a daily record (there are a few higher examples). This may not be complete (top five that I found in the data base) but the following daily rainfalls are not daily records (the actual ones are also shown): LIST OF DAILY RAINFALLS >3.90" NOT DAILY RECORDS Rank __ Amt __ Date _______________ Record for date 01 ____ 5.60" __ Nov 8 1972 ________ 7.40" Nov 8 1977 02 ____ 4.26" __ Oct 8 2005 ________ 4.30" Oct 8 1903 03 ____ 4.19" __ Aug 21 1888 _______ 4.45" Aug 21 2021 04 ____ 4.05" _ Sep 21 1938 _______ 5.54" Sep 21 1966 05 ____ 3.90" _ Aug 9 1976 ________ 4.10" Aug 9 1942

As you know, NYC (Central Park) broke the daily rainfall record for Aug 21 with the heavy downpours late in the day (4.45"). The previous record of 4.19" from 1888 was also of tropical origins. H3 of 1888 made landfalls in south Florida and Louisiana, then tracked northeast with the center shown near NYC by 00z Aug 22nd, later near BOS. It may have retained TS intensity until about that time. The max and min listed for Aug 21 1888 were 72 and 63, suggesting perhaps east to northeast winds all day with those downpours probably lasting most of the day (a further 0.13" was recorded after midnight for the 22nd in 1888). The Aug 22 record for NYC is only 1.85" (1994), part of a total 3.02" rainfall on the 21st-22nd that year.

Have to wonder if the western closed low is pulling in the entire circulation of Henri, which will result in a NW or even WNW track for part of the night and landfall in western LI towards 15z. The heavy rainfall band looks like a boundary between circulations around the two upper lows. It would probably drift very slowly west if there is a capture, then the heavy rain bands of Henri would move into central LI. Eventually the remnant low could drift into the Hudson valley and move into southern Vermont and central NH.

The seasonal count has reached 8/3/1 with Grace briefly a major before (final) landfall and Henri now a minimal 'cane. (note Aug 27, Ida has reached hurricane status and most forecasts assume it will become a major, which would make the count 9/4/2 at that point. The table is edited as of today to reflect that status). (note Aug 29, Julian has come and gone as a tropical storm, table now edited again to reflect that, with the count 10/4/2). (note Aug 30, Kate has formed and seems unlikely to become a hurricane, so I have redone the table yet again for 11/4/2). (note Sep 2, Larry is already a hurricane and guidance seems bullish on its chances to become a major so with the count now 12/5/2 I have rejigged the table below for 12/5/3 (if Larry fails to become a major this will be adjusted later). (note Sep 8, Mindy has arrived in the Gulf of Mexico, expected to remain only a tropical storm ... count once again adjusted). (note Sep 12, Nicholas active in the Gulf, waiting to see if this one becomes a hurricane before editing the table). (note Sep 14, Nicholas did attain hurricane status near landfall, table now updated to reflect new count of 14/6/3). The seasonal predictions you made now require these future outcomes to verify: Required future tropical counts for seasonal predictions to verify _ This table will be updated as new data change the seasonal count _ _ Aug 27 table changed to reflect likely 9/4/2 count within 1-2 days. _ Aug 29 and 30 changes to 11/4/2. _ Sep 2 change to 12/5/3 _ Sep 8 change to 13/5/3 _ Sep 14 count is 14/6/3 FORECASTER _________________ named __ 'canes __ Major _____ additional named, H and M required Macintosh ______________________ 25 __ 14 __ 10 __________ 11 ___ 8 __ 7 Tezeta __________________________ 23 __ 14 ___ 7 ___________ 9 ___ 8 __ 4 Roger Smith _____________________23 __ 13 ___ 7 ___________ 9 ___ 9 __ 4 Southmdwatcher ________________22 __ 11 ___ 6 ___________ 8 ___ 5 __ 3 IntenseWind002 ________________ 22 ___ 9 ___ 4 ___________ 8 ___ 3 __ 1 hudsonvalley21 __________________21 __ 11 ___ 6 ____________7 ___ 5 __ 3 Newman ________________________ 21 __ 10 ___ 5 ___________ 7 ___ 4 __ 2 J_Keith_Lee _____________________ 21 ___ 9 ___ 4 ___________ 7 ___ 3 __ 1 Brian5671 _______________________ 20 __ 12 ___ 2 ___________ 6 ___ 6 __(-1) (6 6 0 best outcome) RJay ____________________________ 20 __ 10 ___ 5 ___________ 6 ___ 4 __ 0 WxWatcher007 __________________20 ___ 9 ___ 4 ___________ 6 ___ 3 __ 1 BKViking ________________________ 20 ___ 9 ___ 4 ___________ 6 ___ 3 __ 1 ___ consensus __________________19.2 _ 9.8 __ 4.7 __________ 5.2_3.8 _1.7 DonSutherland1 _________________ 19 __ 12 ___ 6 ____________ 5 ___ 6 __ 3 (6 6 3 best outcome) Ldub _____________________________ 19 __ 11 ___ 5 _____________5 ___ 5 __ 2 magpiemaniac ___________________ 19 __ 10 ___ 4 ____________ 5 ___ 4 __ 1 NCforecaster89 _________________ 19 ___ 9 ___ 4 _____________5 ___ 3 __ 1 Tom _____________________________ 19 ___ 9 ___ 3 _____________ 5 ___ 3 __ 0 Looking to the skies _____________ 19 ___ 8 ___ 7 _____________ 5 ___ 2 __ 4 (533 best possible) wxdude64 _______________________ 19 ___ 7 ___ 4 _____________ 5 ___ 1 __ 1 TexMexWx _______________________ 18 ___ 9 ___ 4 _____________ 4 ___ 3 __ 1 Cat Lady _________________________ 18 ___ 9 ___ 3 _____________ 4 ___ 3 __ 0 snowlover2 ______________________ 18 ___ 8 ___ 4 _____________ 4 ___ 2 __ 1 Iceresistance ____________________ 18 ___ 7 ___ 3 ______________ 4 ___ 1 __ 0 Rhino16 __________________________ 17 __ 10 ___ 4 _____________ 3 ___ 4 __ 1 (441 best possible) cptcatz ___________________________17 ___ 9 ___ 4 _____________ 3 ___ 3 __ 1 NorthHillsWx ____________________ 17 ___ 9 ___ 3 ______________ 3 ___ 3 __ 0 ____ "Expert consensus" _________ 17 ___ 8 ___ 4 _____________ 3 ___ 2 __ 1 TARCweather ____________________ 17 ___ 8 ___ 3 _____________ 3 ___ 2 __ 0 ____ NOAA median _____________ 16.5 ___ 8 ___ 4 ____________ 2.5 __ 2 __ 1 Yoda _____________________________ 16 ___ 9 ___ 5 _____________ 2 ___ 3 __ 2 (best outcome 3 3 2) LoboLeader1 _____________________ 15 ___ 9 ___ 4 _____________ 1 ___ 3 __ 1 (3 3 1 best outcome) Prospero _________________________ 14 __ 11 ___ 7 ______________0 ___ 5 __ 4 (best possible 4 4 4) ____________________________________________________________________ As of Kate (Aug 30) now three forecasts are impossible to verify but those three can still win the contest by hitting their best possibles. With Larry now a major, a fourth forecast would fall into this category. And with Mindy's arrival three more have drifted into the Cannot Fully Verify Narrows. Most can still win the contest though if they hit their best possibles. Nicholas did not add any new members to the "cannot fully verify" category but drew even with our lowest prediction of number of storms. We are still one short of the lowest number of hurricanes predicted, and had already seen one forecast passed by the number of majors with three others now level at 5. (Aug 22) If we assumed that one third of the season has occurred and two equal thirds lie ahead, the outcome would be 24 9 3 If we assumed that 40% of the season has now occurred but that the remaining 60 per cent would be twice as productive of hurricanes and majors, the outcome would then be 20 9 3 The mean of these two assumptions is 22 9 3. (Aug 27) If we now assume 45% of season has occurred and remaining 55 per cent would be 1.8 times as productive of hurricanes and majors, the new target is then 20 9 4.5 (Sep 2) If Larry became a major and the count was 12 5 3 and we assumed this was the halfway point of the season with an equal second half, the outcome would be 24 10 6. Only one forecast goes higher on named storms, several have higher H and M components. (Sep 8) The forecast models are not too bullish on additional tropical developments in this peak portion of the season so a more subjective outlook now might be around 21 11 5. Just my speculation though.

Have been following this with interest, my hunch is that it will come in further west than many expect, over western Long Island. Intensity at that point might be marginal cat-1 TS boundary.

CONTINUED REPORT ON WEEKLY EXTREMES for WEEKS ENDING IN JULY Intervals _______________ Highest values 1869-2021 __ Lowest values 1869-2021 WEEKLY INTERVAL ______ WARMEST AVERAGE ____ COLDEST AVERAGE ____ notes June 25 - July 1 __________ (max) 92.57 _ 1901 _____ (max) 71.14 _ 1974 June 25 - July 1 __________ (min) 73.57 _ 1880,1909 __ (min) 57.14 _ 1893 June 25 - July 1 _________ (mean) 82.29_ 1901 _____(mean) 64.86_ 1893 _ the wettest week ending July 1 was 1884 (4.75") June 26 - July 2 __________ (max) 95.00 _ 1901 _____ (max) 71.86 _ 1985 June 26 - July 2 __________ (min) 73.86 _ 1901 _____ (min) 57.71 _ 1893 June 26 - July 2 __________ (mean) 84.43_ 1901 ___ (mean) 65.57 _ 1985 _ the wettest week ending July 2 was 1884 (4.30") June 27 - July 3 __________ (max) 95.71 _ 1966 _____ (max) 73.71 _ 1888,1985 ____ (1901 avg 95.43) June 27 - July 3 __________ (min) 74.57 _ 1876 _____ (min) 57.29 _ 1888 June 27 - July 3 __________ (mean) 84.93_1901 ___ (mean) 65.50 _ 1888 _ the wettest week ending July 3 was 1984 (4.22") June 28 - July 4 __________ (max) 95.29 _ 1966 _____ (max) 74.57 _ 1914 _____ (1901 avg 94.43) June 28 - July 4 __________ (min) 75.43 _ 1876 _____ (min) 57.00 _ 1888 June 28 - July 4 __________ (mean) 84.79_1966 ___ (mean) 66.00 _ 1888 _ the wettest week ending July 4 was 1984 (4.23") June 29 - July 5 __________ (max) 94.57 _ 1966 _____ (max) 72.57 _ 1882 June 29 - July 5 __________ (min) 75.71 _ 2018 ______ (min) 58.71 _ 1888 June 29 - July 5 __________ (mean) 84.07_1966 ___ (mean) 66.64 _ 1882 _ the wettest week ending July 5 was 1984 (4.44") June 30 - July 6 __________ (max) 94.43 _ 1966 _____ (max) 72.43 _ 1882 June 30 - July 6 __________ (min) 76.57 _ 1908 ______ (min) 58.29 _ 1940 June 30 - July 6 __________ (mean) 83.86_1966 ____ (mean) 66.21 _ 1882 _ the wettest week ending July 6 was 1901 (4.67") (1984 4.45") July 1 - July 7 ____________ (max) 94.29 _ 1966 _____ (max) 73.71 _ 1882 ____ (94.00 _ 1911) July 1 - July 7 ____________ (min) 77.71 _ 1908 ______ (min) 58.86 _ 1940 ____ (77.29 1999) July 1 - July 7 ___________ (mean) 84.43_1911 ____ (mean) 66.71 _ 1914 _ the wettest week ending July 7 was 1901 (4.68") (1984 4.51") July 2 - July 8 ____________ (max) 94.86 _ 1966 _____ (max) 73.57 _ 1882 July 2 - July 8 ____________ (min) 77.43 _ 1999 ______ (min) 59.29 _ 1979 ___ 77.29 (1908) July 2 - July 8 ___________ (mean) 85.21 _ 1999 ____ (mean) 67.07 _ 1882 _ the wettest week ending July 8 was 1901 (4.69") July 3 - July 9 ____________ (max) 95.14 _ 2010 _____ (max) 74.29 _ 1914 July 3 - July 9 ____________ (min) 77.43 _ 1999 ______ (min) 59.86 _ 1979 July 3 - July 9 ___________ (mean) 85.21 _ 2010 ____ (mean) 67.86 _ 1914 _ the wettest week ending July 9 was 1901 (4.70") _ record broken 2021 5.22" July 4 - July 10 ___________ (max) 96.29 _ 1993 _____ (max) 74.86 _ 1956 July 4 - July 10 ___________ (min) 76.86 _ 1999 ______ (min) 59.71 _ 1979 July 4 - July 10 __________ (mean) 85.71 _ 1993 ____ (mean) 68.14 _ 1894 _ the wettest week ending July 10 was 1901 (4.39") _ record broken 2021 5.15" July 5 - July 11 ___________ (max) 96.57 _ 1993 _____ (max) 74.86 _ 1894 July 5 - July 11 ___________ (min) 76.14 _ 2010* ______ (min) 60.00 _ 1894 *_75.86 2024, 75.71_2013 July 5 - July 11 __________ (mean) 85.79 _ 1993 ____ (mean) 67.43 _ 1894 _ the wettest week ending July 11 was 1901 (5.05") _ record broken 2021 5.16" July 6 - July 12 ___________ (max) 97.00 _ 1993 _____ (max) 74.86 _ 1914 July 6 - July 12 ___________ (min) 76.00 _ 1993*______ (min) 60.57 _ 1894 *_75.71 1981, 2010, 75.57 1905, 2024 July 6 - July 12 __________ (mean) 86.50 _ 1993 ____ (mean) 68.21 _ 1917 _ the wettest week ending July 12 was 1928 (4.03") (2020 3.90") _ _ _ _ record broken 2021 6.58" July 7 - July 13 ___________ (max) 98.00 _ 1993 _____ (max) 73.43 _ 1917 July 7 - July 13 ___________ (min) 76.86*_ 1993 ______ (min) 61.00 _ 1963 _*76.43 _ 1905 July 7 - July 13 __________ (mean) 87.43*_1993 ____ (mean) 68.21 _ 1917 _ * highest mean, 2nd was 15th-21st 1977 (87.36) _ the wettest week ending July 13 was 1874 (3.75") _ record broken 2021 6.58" __ note: Heavy rainfalls in the past week have broken a number of the existing weekly totals as noted in the tables. ___ The 6.58" peak amount for weeks ending July 12 and 13 represents the second highest July weekly total, only 25-31 of 1889 surpassed this with 6.75". Looking back, the last week (in the calendar year) to exceed 6.58" was June 7-13 (2013, record 7.37") and as it turns out that is also the most recent weekly total higher than these recent peaks (added later, two higher peaks were set in late August and early September of 2021). ___ July 8 - July 14 ___________ (max) 97.00 _ 1993 _____ (max) 74.00 _ 1917 __ 94.86 (1936) 106F 9th July 8 - July 14 ___________ (min) 77.14 _ 1905 ______ (min) 60.00 _ 1888 July 8 - July 14 __________ (mean) 86.64 _ 1993 ____ (mean) 68.36 _ 1917 _ the wettest week ending July 14 was 1874 (3.75") _ record broken 2021 6.03" July 9 - July 15 ___________ (max) 95.57 _ 1993 _____ (max) 74.57 _ 1917 July 9 - July 15 ___________ (min) 76.57 _ 1905 ______ (min) 59.43 _ 1888 July 9 - July 15 __________ (mean) 85.29 _ 1993 ____ (mean) 68.21 _ 1888 _ the wettest week ending July 15 was 1975 (4.62") _ 2021 3.76" as no rain July 14-15 July 10 - July 16 ___________ (max) 94.00 _ 1993 _____ (max) 75.71 _ 1895 July 10 - July 16 ___________ (min) 75.00 _ 1876 ______ (min) 59.00 _ 1888 July 10 - July 16 __________ (mean) 83.57 _ 1993 ____ (mean) 68.71 _ 1895 _ the wettest week ending July 16 was 1937 (4.52") _ July 11 - July 17 ___________ (max) 93.29 _ 1983 _____ (max) 76.71 _ 1884 July 11 - July 17 ___________ (min) 75.43 _ 1876 ______ (min) 58.86 _ 1888 July 11 - July 17 __________ (mean) 82.93 _ 1983 ____ (mean) 68.79 _ 1888 _ the wettest week ending July 17 was 1937 (4.52") _ note 2024 3.81" July 12 - July 18 ___________ (max) 95.00 _ 1983 _____ (max) 76.43 _ 1884 July 12 - July 18 ___________ (min) 75.43 _ 1876 ______ (min) 58.43 _ 1888 July 12 - July 18 __________ (mean) 84.93 _ 1983 ____ (mean) 67.93 _ 1888 _ the wettest week ending July 18 was 1895 (4.41") July 13 - July 19 ___________ (max) 96.86 _ 1977 _____ (max) 74.86 _ 1903 July 13 - July 19 ___________ (min) 77.00 _ 2013 ______ (min) 59.43 _ 1888 July 13 - July 19 __________ (mean) 86.07 _ 1977 ____ (mean) 68.14 _ 1888 _ the wettest week ending July 19 was 1975 (3.97") _ note 2024 was 3.64" July 14 - July 20 ___________ (max) 96.71 _ 1977 _____ (max) 75.29 _ 1884 July 14 - July 20 ___________ (min) 79.00 _ 2013 ______ (min) 60.86 _ 1924 July 14 - July 20 __________ (mean) 86.79 _ 2013 ____ (mean) 69.14 _ 1903 _ the wettest week ending July 20 was 1919 (4.07") July 15 - July 21 ___________ (max) 98.43*_ 1977 _____ (max) 75.71 _ 1884 __ * highest weekly average all time (2nd in late Aug-early Sep 1953) July 15 - July 21 ___________ (min) 79.29^_ 2013 ______ (min) 61.00 _ 1924 __ ^ highest weekly average all time (2nd Aug 6-12 1896, 79.14) July 15 - July 21 __________ (mean) 87.36 _ 1977 ____ (mean) 69.43 _ 1884 __ mean is 2nd highest, 87.43 7-13 1993 highest _ the wettest week ending July 21 was 1988 (5.70") July 16 - July 22 ___________ (max) 97.29 _ 1977 _____ (max) 76.57 _ 1871, 1919 July 16 - July 22 ___________ (min) 78.86 _ 2013 ______ (min) 61.29 _ 1929 July 16 - July 22 __________ (mean) 86.50 _ 1977 ____ (mean) 69.57 _ 1871 _ the wettest week ending July 22 was 1988 (5.60") July 17 - July 23 ___________ (max) 97.29 _ 1991*_____ (max) 75.29 _ 1869 __ * 2011 95.71 July 17 - July 23 ___________ (min) 78.29 _ 2013 ______ (min) 60.14 _ 1890 July 17 - July 23 __________ (mean) 86.36 _ 2011 ____ (mean) 68.36 _ 1890 _ the wettest week ending July 23 was 1988 (5.45") _ 1919 was close at 5.37" July 18 - July 24 ___________ (max) 96.43 _ 1991*_____ (max) 74.57 _ 1890 __ * 2011 95.71 July 18 - July 24 ___________ (min) 77.86 _ 2011 ______ (min) 59.43 _ 1890 __ 2022 75.86 July 18 - July 24 __________ (mean) 86.79 _ 2011 ____ (mean) 67.00 _ 1890 _ the wettest week ending July 24 was 1997 (5.53") _ 1919 had 5.36" July 19 - July 25 ___________ (max) 93.57 _ 2011*_____ (max) 74.14 _ 1871 __ * 1991 93.29, 2022 92.43 July 19 - July 25 ___________ (min) 76.86 _ 2011 ______ (min) 60.14 _ 1890 __ 2022 75.86 July 19 - July 25 __________ (mean) 85.21 _ 2011 ____ (mean) 67.36 _ 1871, 1890 _ the wettest week ending July 25 was 1997 (5.97") July 20 - July 26 ___________ (max) 93.14 _ 1980*_____ (max) 74.00 _ 1969 __ * 2011 93.00 July 20 - July 26 ___________ (min) 76.43 _ 1885 ______ (min) 59.86 _ 1871 July 20 - July 26 __________ (mean) 84.50 _ 2011 ____ (mean) 67.29 _ 1871 _ the wettest week ending July 26 was 1997 (5.97") July 21 - July 27 ___________ (max) 93.86 _ 1955 _____ (max) 75.43 _ 2000 July 21 - July 27 ___________ (min) 75.71 _ 1885 ______ (min) 60.71 _ 1871 July 21 - July 27 _________ (mean) 83.79_1955, 1961*__(mean) 68.21_1871 _ * 83.64 2011 _ the wettest week ending July 27 was 1997 (6.06") July 22 - July 28 ___________ (max) 93.57 _ 1999 _____ (max) 74.71 _ 2000* July 22 - July 28 ___________ (min) 75.57 _ 1908 ______ (min) 61.43 _ 1871_1920 July 22 - July 28 __________ (mean) 84.00 _ 1999^____ (mean) 69.14 _ 1871 _ the wettest week ending July 28 was 1997 (5.20") July 23 - July 29 ___________ (max) 95.00 _ 1999 _____ (max) 73.71 _ 2000 July 23 - July 29 ___________ (min) 75.86 _ 1908 ______ (min) 60.71 _ 1920 July 23 - July 29 __________ (mean) 84.79 _ 1999 ____ (mean) 69.21 _ 2000 _ the wettest week ending July 29 was 1997 (4.71") July 24 - July 30 ___________ (max) 95.00 _ 1999 _____ (max) 73.14 _ 2000 July 24 - July 30 ___________ (min) 76.00 _ 1995 ______ (min) 60.29 _ 1920 July 24 - July 30 __________ (mean) 84.86 _ 1999____ (mean) 69.21 _ 2000 _ the wettest week ending July 30 was 1960 (5.06") July 25 - July 31 ___________ (max) 94.00*_ 1999 _____ (max) 72.71 _ 2000 __ * 1940 93.71 July 25 - July 31 ___________ (min) 76.29 _ 1995 ______ (min) 60.43 _ 1920 July 25 - July 31 __________ (mean) 84.07 _ 1999 ____ (mean) 68.93 _ 2000 _ the wettest week ending July 31 was 1889 (6.75")

Updated seasonal max and contest standings _________________________________DCA_ IAD_ BWI_ RIC Updated highs as of Aug 13th __ 97 _100 _ 99 _ 96 Current leaderboard FORECASTER _________________ DCA _IAD _BWI _ RIC _______ Total error (neg) tplbge (19) _____________________ 98 _ 100 __ 99 _ 100 __________________________________ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 4 ____________ 5 biodhokie (17) __________________ 97 _ 100 __ 99 _ 102 ___________________________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 6 ___________ 6 mattie g (4) _____________________98 _ 100 __ 98 _ 101 __________________________________ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 5 _____________ 7 (1) GATech (23) ____________________ 98 __ 98 __ 98 __ 99 ___________________________________ 1 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 3 ____________ 7 (3) nw baltimore wx (8) _____________98 __ 97 __ 98 __ 99 ___________________________________ 1 ___ 3 ___ 1 ___ 3 ____________ 8 (4) A777 (21) ______________________ 100 _ 100 _ 100 _ 100 __________________________________ 3 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 4 _____________ 8 MNTransplant (19) _____________ 99 __ 99 _ 101 _ 101 __________________________________ 2 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 5 _____________ 10 (1) Roger Ramjet (22) ______________ 99 _ 100 _ 101 _ 102 ___________________________________2 ___ 0 ___ 2 ___ 6 ____________ 10 Wxdavis5784 (11) ______________ 99 _ 100 _ 103 _ 101 __________________________________ 2 ___ 0 ___ 4 ___ 5 ____________ 11 WxWatcher007 (20) ____________ 99 __ 97 _ 100 _ 101 __________________________________ 2 ___ 3 ___ 1 ___ 5 _____________ 11 (3) GramaxRefugee (12) ___________ 101 _ 102 _ 102 _ 100 ___________________________________4 ___ 2 ___ 3 ___ 4 ___________ 13 storm pc (9) ___________________ 101 __ 99 _ 103 _ 101 __________________________________ 4 ___ 1 ___ 4 ___ 5 ____________ 14 (1) ___ Consensus (mean of 26) ____101 _ 101 _ 102 _ 102 ___________________________________ 4 ___ 1 ___ 3 ___ 6 ___________ 14 CAPE (1) _______________________ 102 _ 100 _ 103 _ 103 __________________________________ 5 ___ 0 ___ 4 ___ 7 ___________ 16 WxUSAF (7) ____________________102 _ 100 _ 103 _ 103 __________________________________ 5 ___ 0 ___ 4 ___ 7 ___________ 16 NorthArlington101 (14) ________ 101 _ 100 _ 103 _ 104 __________________________________ 4 ___ 0 ___ 4 ___ 8 ____________ 16 yoda (15) ______________________ 102 _ 100 _ 102 _ 104 _________________________________ 5 ___ 0 ___ 3 ___ 8 ____________ 16 toolsheds (16) _________________ 104 _ 100 _ 104 _ 101 __________________________________ 7 ___ 0 ___ 5 ___ 5 ____________ 17 Weather53 (25) _________________102 _ 101 _ 103 _ 103 ___________________________________ 5 ___ 1 ___ 4 ___ 7 ___________ 17 Rhino16 (3) ____________________ 103 _ 101 _ 101 _ 105 __________________________________ 6 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 9 ____________ 18 Roger Smith (--) ________________101 _ 102 _ 103 _ 104 __________________________________ 4 ___ 2 ___ 4 ___ 8 ___________ 18 wxdude64 (5) __________________ 103 _ 101 _ 103 _ 104 __________________________________ 6 ___ 1 ___ 4 ___ 8 ___________ 19 Prince Frederick Wx (10) _______ 102 _ 100 _ 105 _ 104 ___________________________________ 5 ___ 0 ___ 6 ___ 8 __________ 19 SnowenOutThere (24) __________101 _ 104 _ 103 _ 103 __________________________________ 4 ___ 4 ___ 4 ___ 7 ___________ 19 MillvilleWx (6) __________________105 _ 102 _ 102 _ 103 __________________________________ 8 ___ 2 ___ 3 ___ 7 ____________ 20 H2O (13) _______________________102 _ 103 _ 104 _ 103 __________________________________ 5 ___ 3 ___ 5 ___ 7 ___________ 20 vastateofmind (11) _____________104 _ 102 _ 104 _ 103 __________________________________ 7 ___ 2 ___ 5 ___ 7 ____________ 21 George BM (2) _________________107 _ 106 _ 107 _ 108 __________________________________10 ___ 6 ___ 8 ___ 12 ___________ 36 ___________________________________________________________________ (Numbers in brackets after forecaster name indicate order of entry). NOTES: Very few of the departures (errors) are negative so far (indicated by italic type), those of course can only increase with future changes in seasonal maxima. So in almost all cases these scores can still improve and all the totals could improve. The number in brackets after a few of the total scores are "total negatives" which represent the portion of the score already locked in. Only some of the better scores have this element. The number in brackets then also represents the lowest total score you can now achieve if your positive departures reduce to zero. Second place biodhokie has three of four stations at zero error currently, while leader tplbge has two on the right value with a total departure of 5. Nobody so far has a lower forecast than the actual values at DCA and RIC (for RIC there is still a field-wide three degree shortfall at 96 F, one (biodhokie) has a zero error now for DCA at 97F and there are several at 98F). Took a quick look at today's weather and it looks like none of the above will change today.

CONTINUED REPORT ON WEEKLY EXTREMES for WEEKS ENDING IN JUNE Intervals _______________ Highest values 1869-2025 __ Lowest values 1869-2025 May 26 - Jun 1 __________ (max) 88.29 _ 1991 ______ (max) 60.86 _ 1907 May 26 - Jun 1 ___________ (min) 69.71 _ 2016 ______ (min) 47.14 _ 1930 May 26 - Jun 1 __________ (mean) 78.50 _ 1991 ____ (mean) 54.43 _ 1907 _ the wettest week ending June 1 was 5.56" (1984) May 27 - Jun 2 __________ (max) 88.86 _ 1991 ______ (max) 60.71 _ 1907 May 27 - Jun 2 ___________ (min) 68.86 _ 1991 ______ (min) 48.29 _ 1907 May 27 - Jun 2 __________ (mean) 78.86 _ 1991 ____ (mean) 54.50 _ 1907 _ the wettest week ending June 2 was 5.65" (1984) May 28 - Jun 3 __________ (max) 90.14 _ 1895 ______ (max) 60.86 _ 1907 May 28 - Jun 3 ___________ (min) 68.71 _ 1991 ______ (min) 48.43 _ 1907 May 28 - Jun 3 __________ (mean) 78.57 _ 1895 ____ (mean) 54.64 _ 1907 _ the wettest week ending June 3 was 5.65" (1984) May 29 - Jun 4 __________ (max) 89.43*_ 1895 ______ (max) 62.86 _ 1907 _* also 88.29_1919 May 29 - Jun 4 ___________ (min) 68.14 _ 1895 ______ (min) 49.86 _ 1945 May 29 - Jun 4 __________ (mean) 78.79 _ 1895 ____ (mean) 56.50 _ 1907 _ the wettest week ending June 4 was 5.12" (2003) May 30 - Jun 5 __________ (max) 89.71 _ 1925 ______ (max) 59.29 _ 1945 May 30 - Jun 5 ___________ (min) 69.14 _ 2010 ______ (min) 49.00 _ 1945 May 30 - Jun 5 __________ (mean) 78.50 _ 1925 ____ (mean) 54.14 _ 1945 _ the wettest week ending June 5 was 5.13" (2003) May 31 - Jun 6 __________ (max) 93.00 _ 1925 ______ (max) 59.43 _ 1945 May 31 - Jun 6 ___________ (min) 70.43 _ 1925 ______ (min) 47.57 _ 1945 May 31 - Jun 6 __________ (mean) 81.71 _ 1925 ____ (mean) 53.50 _ 1945 _ the wettest week ending June 6 was 4.94" (2003) Jun 1 - Jun 7 __________ (max) 95.00 _ 1925 ______ (max) 60.71 _ 1945 Jun 1 - Jun 7 ___________ (min) 71.14 _ 1925 ______ (min) 47.86 _ 1945 Jun 1 - Jun 7 __________ (mean) 83.07 _ 1925 ____ (mean) 54.29 _ 1945 _ the wettest week ending June 7 was 6.01" (2011) Jun 2 - Jun 8 __________ (max) 92.86 _ 1925 ______ (max) 63.43 _ 1945 Jun 2 - Jun 8 ___________ (min) 70.00 _ 1925 ______ (min) 49.57 _ 1945 Jun 2 - Jun 8 __________ (mean) 81.43 _ 1925 ____ (mean) 56.50 _ 1945 _ the wettest week ending June 8 was 6.49" (2011) Jun 3 - Jun 9 __________ (max) 91.14 _ 1925 ______ (max) 65.29 _ 1945 Jun 3 - Jun 9 ___________ (min) 69.29 _ 2021 ______ (min) 50.86 _ 1945 Jun 3 - Jun 9 __________ (mean) 80.07 _ 1925 ____ (mean) 58.07 _ 1945 _ the wettest week ending June 9 was 5.64" (2011) Jun 4 - Jun 10 __________ (max) 90.57 _ 1925 ______ (max) 66.29 _ 1869 Jun 4 - Jun 10 ___________ (min) 71.00 _ 1984 ______ (min) 52.14 _ 1945 Jun 4 - Jun 10 __________ (mean) 80.71 _ 1984 ____ (mean) 59.74 _ 1945 _ the wettest week ending June 10 was 6.15" (2011) Jun 5 - Jun 11 __________ (max) 91.86 _ 1984 ______ (max) 64.86 _ 1916 _ also 65.57 1869 Jun 5 - Jun 11 ___________ (min) 73.86 _ 1984 ______ (min) 52.57 _ 1878 Jun 5 - Jun 11 __________ (mean) 82.86 _ 1984 ____ (mean) 59.71 _ 1881 _ the wettest week ending June 11 was 6.24" (2011) Jun 6 - Jun 12 __________ (max) 91.43 _ 1984 ______ (max) 63.71 _ 1869 Jun 6 - Jun 12 ___________ (min) 74.43 _ 1984 ______ (min) 52.71 _ 1878 Jun 6 - Jun 12 __________ (mean) 82.93 _ 1984 ____ (mean) 59.29 _ 1916 _ the wettest week ending June 12 was 6.24" (2011) Jun 7 - Jun 13 __________ (max) 92.71 _ 1984 ______ (max) 64.86 _ 1916 _ also 65.57 1869 Jun 7 - Jun 13 ___________ (min) 74.86 _ 1984 ______ (min) 53.29 _ 1980 Jun 7 - Jun 13 __________ (mean) 83.79 _ 1984 ____ (mean) 59.64 _ 1916 _ the wettest week ending June 13 was 7.37" (2011) _ highest weekly total ending on any June date (or incl June days). Jun 8 - Jun 14 __________ (max) 91.71 _ 1984 ______ (max) 65.29 _ 1916 Jun 8 - Jun 14 ___________ (min) 74.57 _ 1984*______ (min) 52.14 _ 1980 _* 2005_72.86 Jun 8 - Jun 14 __________ (mean) 83.14 _ 1984 ____ (mean) 60.07 _ 1916 _ the wettest week ending June 14 was 4.37" (1989) Jun 9 - Jun 15 __________ (max) 88.86 _ 1973 ______ (max) 65.71 _ 1916 Jun 9 - Jun 15 ___________ (min) 72.57 _ 1984 ______ (min) 53.71 _ 1951 Jun 9 - Jun 15 __________ (mean) 80.64 _ 1984 ____ (mean) 60.21 _ 1916 _ the wettest week ending June 15 was 4.65" (1989) Jun 10 - Jun 16 _________ (max) 88.57 _ 1891 ______ (max) 67.43 _ 1916 Jun 10 - Jun 16 __________ (min) 69.86 _ 1984, 2005 __ (min) 53.14 _ 1951 Jun 10 - Jun 16 _________ (mean) 78.07 _ 1891 ____ (mean) 61.14 _ 1916 _ the wettest week ending June 16 was 3.97" (1903) Jun 11 - Jun 17 _________ (max) 89.86 _ 1891, 1957 __ (max) 67.57 _ 1903 Jun 11 - Jun 17 __________ (min) 69.71 _ 1956,57 ___ (min) 53.86 _ 1951 Jun 11 - Jun 17 _________ (mean) 79.79 _ 1957 ____ (mean) 62.64 _ 1881 _ the wettest week ending June 17 was 3.98" (1903) Jun 12 - Jun 18 _________ (max) 91.43 _ 1957 ______ (max) 65.86 _ 1903 Jun 12 - Jun 18 __________ (min) 72.14 _ 1957 ______ (min) 55.00 _ 1951 Jun 12 - Jun 18 _________ (mean) 81.79 _ 1957 ____ (mean) 61.86 _ 1903 _ the wettest week ending June 18 was 4.09" (1903) Jun 13 - Jun 19 _________ (max) 91.86 _ 1957 ______ (max) 65.43 _ 1903 Jun 13 - Jun 19 __________ (min) 73.00 _ 1957 ______ (min) 54.43 _ 1933 Jun 13 - Jun 19 _________ (mean) 82.43 _ 1957 ____ (mean) 61.57 _ 1903 _ the wettest week ending June 19 was 4.10" (1972) Jun 14 - Jun 20 _________ (max) 91.00 _ 1957 ______ (max) 65.29 _ 1903 Jun 14 - Jun 20 __________ (min) 72.00 _ 1957 ______ (min) 54.71 _ 1959 Jun 14 - Jun 20 _________ (mean) 81.50 _ 1957 ____ (mean) 61.14 _ 1903 _ the wettest week ending June 20 was 4.09" (1972) Jun 15 - Jun 21 _________ (max) 90.57 _ 1957 ______ (max) 66.29 _ 1903 Jun 15 - Jun 21 __________ (min) 71.00 _ 1957 ______ (min) 54.57 _ 1926 Jun 15 - Jun 21 _________ (mean) 80.79 _ 1957 ____ (mean) 62.00 _ 1903 _ the wettest week ending June 21 was 4.30" (1972) Jun 16 - Jun 22 _________ (max) 89.43 _ 1957 ______ (max) 66.43 _ 1903 Jun 16 - Jun 22 __________ (min) 71.00 _ 1949 ______ (min) 55.29 _ 1926 Jun 16 - Jun 22 _________ (mean) 80.00 _ 1957 ____ (mean) 62.21 _ 1903 _ the wettest week ending June 22 was 5.49" (1972) Jun 17 - Jun 23 _________ (max) 89.43 _ 1888 ______ (max) 65.71 _ 1903 Jun 17 - Jun 23 __________ (min) 72.00*_2024 ___ (min) 55.86 _ 1918,26 *_70.71 1949, 2006 Jun 17 - Jun 23 _________ (mean) 80.86*_2024 ____ (mean) 61.86 _ 1903 *_79.36 _ 1994 _ the wettest week ending June 23 was 4.95" (1887) Jun 18 - Jun 24 _________ (max) 90.57 _ 1888 ______ (max) 65.14 _ 1903 Jun 18 - Jun 24 __________ (min) 73.00*_2024 ___ (min) 55.14 _ 1918 _ *72.29_2025, 71.00_ 1907, 2017 Jun 18 - Jun 24 _________ (mean) 81.14*_2024 ____ (mean) 61.50 _ 1903 _*80.64_2025, 79.57 _ 1943 _ the wettest week ending June 24 was 4.95" (1887) Jun 19 - Jun 25 _________ (max) 91.86 _ 1923 ______ (max) 65.71 _ 1903 _ *90.71 _ 2025 Jun 19 - Jun 25 __________ (min) 74.56*_ 2025 ______ (min) 54.57 _ 1918 *_72.71_2024, 71.29 _ 1908 Jun 19 - Jun 25 _________ (mean) 82.64*_2025 ____ (mean) 61.64 _ 1903 *_81.29 2024, 81.21 _ 1943 _ the wettest week ending June 25 was 4.64" (1887) Jun 20 - Jun 26 _________ (max) 92.29 _ 1923 ______ (max) 67.29 _ 1903 90.14 Jun 20 - Jun 26 __________ (min) 74.00 _ 1909,2025 ____ (min) 54.57 _ 1918 Jun 20 - Jun 26 _________ (mean) 82.21 _ 1943 ____ (mean) 62.43 _ 1903 _*82.07 _2025 _ the wettest week ending June 26 was 4.74" (1884) Jun 21 - Jun 27 _________ (max) 93.00 _ 1943 ______ (max) 69.14 _ 1903 Jun 21 - Jun 27 __________ (min) 75.71 _ 1909 ______ (min) 55.29 _ 1940 Jun 21 - Jun 27 _________ (mean) 82.86 _ 1943 ____ (mean) 63.36 _ 1940 _ the wettest week ending June 27 was 4.74" (1884) Jun 22 - Jun 28 _________ (max) 93.29 _ 1943 ______ (max) 69.14 _ 1903 Jun 22 - Jun 28 __________ (min) 76.14 _ 1909 ______ (min) 56.43 _ 1918 Jun 22 - Jun 28 _________ (mean) 83.21 _ 1943 ____ (mean) 64.07 _ 1893 _ the wettest week ending June 28 was 4.74" (1884) Jun 23 - Jun 29 _________ (max) 92.00 _ 1966 ______ (max) 69.29 _ 1903 _ also 69.43 1974 Jun 23 - Jun 29 __________ (min) 75.71 _ 1909 ______ (min) 56.57 _ 1893 Jun 23 - Jun 29 _________ (mean) 81.93 _ 1943 ____ (mean) 63.71 _ 1974 _ the wettest week ending June 29 was 4.74" (1884) Jun 24 - Jun 30 _________ (max) 92.00 _ 1966 ______ (max) 70.57 _ 1974 Jun 24 - Jun 30 __________ (min) 74.43 _ 1909 ______ (min) 56.43 _ 1893 Jun 24 - Jun 30 _________ (mean) 82.07 _ 1880 ____ (mean) 64.14 _ 1893 _ the wettest week ending June 30 was 4.80" (1984)

After ten days, anomalies and projections: ______________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA (11th) ____ (anom 10d) ______ --2.7 _ --2.7 _ --0.7 __ +0.4 _--1.5 _+0.6 __ +1.5 _ +1.7 _ +1.7 (21st) ____ (anom 20d) ______ --0.2 _ +0.5 _ +3.0 __ +1.3 _--0.7 _+0.4 __ +2.1 _ --3.0 _ +2.2 (11th) ____ (p 20d anom) ____ --1.0 _ --1.0 __ 0.0 ___ +0.5 _ --1.0 _+1.0 __ +2.0 _ +1.5 _ +2.5 (11th) ____ (p27d anom) _____ --0.5 _--0.5 _ +0.5 __ +0.5 _ --0.5_ +1.0 __ +2.5 _ +1.5 _ +2.0 (21st) ____ (p31d anom) _____ +0.5 _ +1.0 _ +2.0 __ +2.0*__ 0.0 _ +1.0 __ +2.0 _ --2.0 _ +1.5 *ORD changed on 25th from +1.0 to +2.0 (28th) ____ (p31d anom) _____ +1.5 _ +1.5 _ +4.0 __ +3.0 __ 0.0 _ +0.5 __ +2.5 _ --2.0 _ +1.0 final values ___________________+1.5 _ +1.5 _ +4.2 __ +3.3 _ +0.2 _ +0.8 __ +2.5 _ --1.8 _ +0.1

CONTINUED REPORT ON WEEKLY EXTREMES for WEEKS ENDING IN MAY Intervals _______________ Highest values 1869-2021 __ Lowest values 1869-2021 Apr 25 - May 1 __________ (max) 79.29 _ 2009 ______ (max) 48.00 _ 1874 Apr 25 - May 1 ___________ (min) 56.57 _ 2009 ______ (min) 34.57 _ 1874 Apr 25 - May 1 __________ (mean) 67.93 _ 2009 ____ (mean) 41.29 _ 1874 _ the wettest week ending May 1 was 2014 (6.06") _ this is the highest weekly total that includes any days in May __ the highest total that has all days within May is 5.68" for May 23-29, 1968. Apr 26 - May 2 __________ (max) 76.43 _ 1990, 2009 ___ (max) 48.57 _ 1874 Apr 26 - May 2 ___________ (min) 57.00 _ 1983 ______ (min) 34.71 _ 1874 Apr 26 - May 2 __________ (mean) 66.64 _ 2009 ____ (mean) 41.64 _ 1874 _ the wettest week ending May 2 was 2014 (6.04") Apr 27 - May 3 __________ (max) 78.29 _ 2001 ______ (max) 50.86 _ 1909 Apr 27 - May 3 ___________ (min) 59.57 _ 1983 ______ (min) 34.86 _ 1874 Apr 27 - May 3 __________ (mean) 68.86 _ 1983 ____ (mean) 43.14 _ 1874 _ the wettest week ending May 3 was 2023 at 5.45" (formerly 2014 (5.20")) Apr 28 - May 4 __________ (max) 81.00 _ 2001 ______ (max) 51.86 _ 1909 Apr 28 - May 4 ___________ (min) 59.86 _ 1983 ______ (min) 35.57 _ 1874 Apr 28 - May 4 __________ (mean) 69.79 _ 2001 ____ (mean) 44.21 _ 1874 _ the wettest week ending May 4 was 2023 at 5.50" (formerly 2014 (5.22")) Apr 29 - May 5 __________ (max) 83.14 _ 2001 ______ (max) 51.29 _ 1917 Apr 29 - May 5 ___________ (min) 60.14 _ 2001 ______ (min) 37.57 _ 1874 Apr 29 - May 5 __________ (mean) 71.64 _ 2001 ____ (mean) 46.36 _ 1874, 1917 _ the wettest week ending May 5 was 2014 (5.22") _ 2023 was 5.17" Apr 30 - May 6 __________ (max) 82.86 _ 2001 _____ (max) 49.71 _ 1917 _* also 81.43_2010 Apr 30 - May 6 ___________ (min) 61.71 _ 2010 ______ (min) 38.86 _ 1874 Apr 30 - May 6 __________ (mean) 71.86*_ 2001 ___ (mean) 45.29 _ 1917 _* also 71.57_2010 _ the wettest week ending May 6 was 2014 (5.19") May 1 - May 7 ___________ (max) 83.71 _ 1930 ______ (max) 50.29 _ 1917 May 1 - May 7 ____________ (min) 61.14 _ 1930, 2010 ___ (min) 39.71 _ 1874 May 1 - May 7 __________ (mean) 72.43 _ 1930 ____ (mean) 45.50 _ 1917 _ the wettest week ending May 7 was 1893 (3.96") May 2 - May 8 ___________ (max) 84.29 _ 1930 ______ (max) 51.29 _ 1917 May 2 - May 8 ____________ (min) 63.43 _ 1930 _____ (min) 39.71 _ 1874 May 2 - May 8 __________ (mean) 73.86 _ 1930 ____ (mean) 46.14 _ 1917 _ the wettest week ending May 8 was 1908 (3.92") May 3 - May 9 ___________ (max) 84.29 _ 1930 ______ (max) 51.71 _ 1917 May 3 - May 9 ____________ (min) 63.00 _ 1930 _____ (min) 41.14 _ 1917 May 3 - May 9 __________ (mean) 73.64 _ 1930 ____ (mean) 46.43 _ 1917 _ the wettest week ending May 9 was 1908 (3.91") May 4 - May 10 __________ (max) 85.71 _ 1930 ______ (max) 52.14 _ 1917 May 4 - May 10 ___________ (min) 62.71 _ 1930 _____ (min) 41.57 _ 1917 May 4 - May 10 _________ (mean) 74.21 _ 1930 ____ (mean) 46.86 _ 1917 _ the wettest week ending May 10 was 1998 (4.21") May 5 - May 11 __________ (max) 86.00 _ 2000 ______ (max) 53.71 _ 1917 May 5 - May 11 ___________ (min) 63.00 _ 1895 _____ (min) 41.43 _ 2020 May 5 - May 11 _________ (mean) 74.14 _ 2000 ____ (mean) 48.21 _ 1917 _ the wettest week ending May 11 was 1998 (4.89") May 6 - May 12 __________ (max) 83.57 _ 2000 ______ (max) 55.43 _ 1967 (also 58.29_2020) May 6 - May 12 ___________ (min) 61.86 _ 2000 _____ (min) 41.00 _ 2020 May 6 - May 12 _________ (mean) 72.71 _ 2000 ____ (mean) 48.93 _ 1917 (also 49.64_1917, 2020) _ the wettest week ending May 12 was 2013 (4.62") May 7 - May 13 __________ (max) 82.29 _ 1970 ______ (max) 57.14 _ 1967 May 7 - May 13 ___________ (min) 61.71 _ 1979 _____ (min) 40.43 _ 2020 May 7 - May 13 _________ (mean) 70.64 _ 1979 ____ (mean) 50.14 _ 1967 _ the wettest week ending May 13 was 2013 (4.62") May 8 - May 14 __________ (max) 83.71 _ 1970 ______ (max) 57.43 _ 1882 May 8 - May 14 ___________ (min) 62.29 _ 1979 _____ (min) 40.57 _ 2020 May 8 - May 14 _________ (mean) 72.43 _ 1970 ____ (mean) 50.29 _ 2020 _ the wettest week ending May 14 was 2013 (4.62") May 9 - May 15 __________ (max) 83.43 _ 1970*______ (max) 56.14 _ 1878 _* 82.71 _ 1896 May 9 - May 15 ___________ (min) 62.00 _ 1979 _____ (min) 44.00 _ 2020 May 9 - May 15 _________ (mean) 72.43 _ 1970 ____ (mean) 50.50 _ 1878 _ the wettest week ending May 15 was 1978 (4.09") May 10 - May 16 __________ (max) 83.00 _ 1965 ______ (max) 55.57 _ 1882 May 10 - May 16 ___________ (min) 62.14 _ 1896 _____ (min) 43.14 _ 1878 May 10 - May 16 _________ (mean) 71.79 _ 1896 ____ (mean) 49.93 _ 1878 _ the wettest week ending May 16 was 1990 (4.76") May 11 - May 17 __________ (max) 84.43 _ 1991 ______ (max) 55.29 _ 1882 May 11 - May 17 ___________ (min) 61.57 _ 1991 _____ (min) 43.43 _ 1878 May 11 - May 17 _________ (mean) 73.00 _ 1991 ____ (mean) 50.14 _ 1878 _ the wettest week ending May 17 was 1978 (4.37") May 12 - May 18 __________ (max) 83.57 _ 1991 ______ (max) 56.00 _ 1882 May 12 - May 18 ___________ (min) 62.29 _ 1896 _____ (min) 44.29 _ 1878 _ 44.43 _ 1895 May 12 - May 18 _________ (mean) 72.36 _ 1991 ____ (mean) 50.64 _ 1882 _ the wettest week ending May 18 was 1978 (4.75") May 13 - May 19 __________ (max) 81.00 _ 1877 ______ (max) 56.71 _ 1882 May 13 - May 19 ___________ (min) 62.00 _ 1896 _____ (min) 45.14 _ 1882, 1895 May 13 - May 19 _________ (mean) 71.43 _ 1896 ____ (mean) 50.93 _ 1882 _ the wettest week ending May 19 was 1978 (4.75") May 14 - May 20 __________ (max) 83.43 _ 1877 ______ (max) 59.00 _ 1888 May 14 - May 20 ___________ (min) 62.29 _ 1889 _____ (min) 46.00 _ 1873, 1882 May 14 - May 20 _________ (mean) 72.79 _ 1877 ____ (mean) 52.79 _ 1882 _ the wettest week ending May 20 was 1978 (4.75") May 15 - May 21 __________ (max) 84.57 _ 1962 ______ (max) 59.57 _ 1888 May 15 - May 21 ___________ (min) 63.00 _ 1889, 1903 __ (min) 46.14 _ 1888 May 15 - May 21 _________ (mean) 72.57 _ 1903 ____ (mean) 52.86 _ 1888 _ the wettest week ending May 21 was 2011 (4.22") May 16 - May 22 __________ (max) 84.71 _ 1962 ______ (max) 60.29 _ 1881 May 16 - May 22 ___________ (min) 64.14 _ 1903 _____ (min) 46.29 _ 2002 May 16 - May 22 _________ (mean) 73.57 _ 1903 ____ (mean) 53.86 _ 1895 _ the wettest week ending May 22 was 1989 (3.35") May 17 - May 23 __________ (max) 86.00 _ 1962 ______ (max) 60.57 _ 1881 May 17 - May 23 ___________ (min) 63.86 _ 1903 _____ (min) 45.71 _ 2002 May 17 - May 23 _________ (mean) 73.43 _ 1903 ____ (mean) 55.29 _ 1888 _ 55.36 _ 2002 _ the wettest week ending May 23 was 1979 (3.76") May 18 - May 24 __________ (max) 86.86 _ 1962*______ (max) 59.86 _ 1892 _* 83.71 _ 1964 May 18 - May 24 ___________ (min) 63.00 _ 1911 ______ (min) 45.86 _ 2002 _ 46.43 _ 1976 May 18 - May 24 _________ (mean) 73.21 _ 1962*____ (mean) 54.07 _ 1892 _* 72.79 _ 1975 _ the wettest week ending May 24 was 1979 (4.11") May 19 - May 25 __________ (max) 86.14 _ 1962 ______ (max) 59.86 _ 1892 May 19 - May 25 ___________ (min) 63.14 _ 1880, 1908 __ (min) 47.71 _ 1976, 2002 May 19 - May 25 _________ (mean) 73.36 _ 1962 ____ (mean) 53.93 _ 1892 _ the wettest week ending May 25 was 1979 (4.36") May 20 - May 26 __________ (max) 85.14 _ 1880 ______ (max) 59.57 _ 1907 May 20 - May 26 ___________ (min) 65.71 _ 1880 _____ (min) 45.07 _ 1907 May 20 - May 26 _________ (mean) 75.43 _ 1880 ____ (mean) 52.57 _ 1907 _ the wettest week ending May 26 was 1979 (3.64") May 21 - May 27 __________ (max) 87.29 _ 1880*______ (max) 58.71 _ 1907 _* 83.71 _ 1941 May 21 - May 27 ___________ (min) 68.14 _ 1880 _____ (min) 45.86 _ 1967 May 21 - May 27 _________ (mean) 77.71 _ 1880 ____ (mean) 52.50 _ 1907 _ the wettest week ending May 27 was 1979 (3.63") May 22 - May 28 _________ (max) 87.71 _ 1880*______ (max) 59.14 _ 1907 _* 84.14 _ 1914 May 22 - May 28 _________ (min) 68.43 _1880*_____ (min) 46.71 _ 1907 _ 47.00 _ 1963 also *_66.43_1908, 66.29_2024 May 22 - May 28 _________ (mean) 78.07 _ 1880 ____ (mean) 52.93 _ 1907 _ the wettest week ending May 28 was 1979 (3.83") May 23 - May 29 __________ (max) 87.71 _ 1880 ______ (max) 59.57 _ 1907 May 23 - May 29 ___________ (min) 67.71 _ 1880 _____ (min) 47.14 _ 1907 May 23 - May 29 _________ (mean) 77.71 _ 1880 ____ (mean) 53.36 _ 1907 _ the wettest week ending May 29 was 1968 (5.68") _ wettest week with all days within month of May. __ a higher total of 6.06" (2014) was recorded from Apr 25 to May 1. May 24 - May 30 __________ (max) 88.14 _ 1991 ______ (max) 60.57 _ 1907 May 24 - May 30 ___________ (min) 67.14 _ 2016 _____ (min) 46.71 _ 1907 May 24 - May 30 _________ (mean) 77.57 _ 1991 ____ (mean) 53.64 _ 1907 _ the wettest week ending May 30 was 1968 (5.50") May 25 - May 31 __________ (max) 89.00 _ 1991 ______ (max) 60.29 _ 1907 May 25 - May 31 ___________ (min) 69.00 _ 2016 _____ (min) 47.14 _ 1930 May 25 - May 31 _________ (mean) 78.79 _ 1991 ____ (mean) 53.86 _ 1907 _ the wettest week ending May 31 was 1984 (5.54") .

Table of forecasts for August 2021 FORECASTER ___________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA ___ bias Roger Smith _____________ +1.5 _+1.8 _+2.0 __ +2.0 _+1.5 _+1.0 __ +1.5 _ -0.5 _+0.8 ___ +0.70 wxallannj ________________ +1.2 _+1.4 _+1.6 __ +1.7 _ -0.8 _ -1.2 __ +1.4 _ -0.5 _+0.5 ___ +0.00 RJay _____________________ +1.0 _+1.2 _+0.7 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ +2.5 _+1.0 _+2.0 ___ +0.34 Scotty Lightning _________ +1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 __ +1.0 _+1.5 _+2.0 ___ +1.0 _+1.5 _+0.5 ___ +0.58 so_whats_happening ____ +0.8 _+1.0 _ -0.8 __ -1.4 _ -0.3 _+0.4 __ +1.1 _ +0.3 _+1.4 ___ -0.31 hudsonvalley21 __________ +0.5 _+0.9 _+0.4 __ -0.7 _ -0.5 _-0.2 __ +1.6 _+0.7 _+1.2 ___ -0.16 ___ Consensus ___________ +0.5 _+0.9 _+0.8 __ +0.5 _-0.3 _-0.1 __ +1.3 _+0.5 _+1.2 BKViking ____ (-1%) ______+0.5 _+0.8 _+0.7 __ +0.4 _-0.2 _+0.9 __ +1.5 _+0.5 _+1.5 ___ +0.14 DonSutherland1 _________ +0.4 _+0.6 _+0.5 ___ 0.0 _ -0.7 _ -1.0 __ +0.2 _+0.9 _+1.6 ___ -0.31 wxdude64 _______________ +0.3 _+0.6 _+1.1 __ +1.2 _ -0.4 _ -0.8 __ +1.1 _+0.9 _+0.2 ___ -0.12 Tom ______________________+0.2 _+0.5 _+0.5 __ -0.1 _+0.9 _+0.5 __ +1.5 _+0.5 _+1.1 ___ +0.03 Deformation Zone ________ 0.0 _+0.5 _+1.0 __ +0.5 _ -1.0 _ -2.0 __ +0.5 _-2.5 _+1.5 ___ -0.76 ___ Normal _______________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ -0.59 RodneyS _________________-0.4 _ -0.1 _+0.9 __ +1.7 _ -0.5 _ -0.7 ___ +0.4 _-0.8 _+1.2 ___ -0.40

<<<< ============ - - - - Annual Scoring for 2021 (Jan-July) - - - - ============ >>>> High scores for nine locations shown in red, high scores for regions in bold. June provisional scores are used and adjustments will be made here to reflect changes there. New feature _ change in rank is shown after forecaster name. No entry there means same position as last month. Normal passed three forecasters in July, but they remained in same order relative to each other, so their change is shown as zero, Normal is shown up 3. RodneyS moved ahead of four and also consensus, which is why consensus is shown down 1. FORECASTER _________________DCA_NYC_BOS__east_ ORD_ATL_IAH__cent __c/e ___DEN_PHX_SEA__west___TOTALS DonSutherland1 ______________ 486 _508 _386 _ 1380 __447 _528 _472 _1447__2827 __322 _492 _468 _ 1282___ 4109 BKViking ______________________478 _522 _409 _ 1409 __350 _490 _432 _ 1272__2681 __358 _452 _482 _ 1292___ 3973 RodneyS (up 4) _______________488 _506 _361 _ 1355 __333 _510 _412 _ 1255 __2610 __390 _476 _480 _ 1346___ 3956 wxdude64 (down 1) __________ 537 _501 _403 _ 1441 __ 325 _448 _431 _ 1204__2645 __427 _449 _431 _ 1307___ 3952 ___ Consensus (down 1) _____ 508 _522 _390 _ 1420 __340 _458 _438 _ 1236 __2656 __360 _438 _458 _ 1256___ 3912 wxallannj (up 1) ________________434 _480 _372 _ 1286 __320 _440 _494 _ 1254 __2540 __448 _441 _474 _1363___ 3903 Tom (down 2) __________________496 _537 _436 _ 1469__298 _399 _462 _ 1159 __2628 __410 _445 _414 _ 1269___ 3897 hudsonvalley21 (down 2) _____ 480 _490 _427 _ 1397 __341 _504 _410 _ 1255 __2652 __308 _425 _496 _ 1229___ 3881 ___ Normal (up 3) _____________ 498 _448 _310 _ 1256 __234 _464 _466 _ 1164 __2420 __416 _436 _432 _ 1284___ 3704 so_whats_happening __________ 515 _471 _301 _ 1287 __394 _508 _351 _ 1253 __2540 __290 _428 _427 _ 1145___ 3685 Scotty Lightning _______________474 _472 _334 _ 1280 __252 _440 _412 _ 1104 __2384 __386 _442 _470 _ 1298___ 3682 RJay __________________________ 410 _436 _404 _ 1250 __356 _410 _394 _ 1160 __2410 __296 _347 _370 _ 1013___ 3423 Roger Smith ___________________ 414 _348 _165 __ 927 __323 _364 _446 _ 1133 __ 2060 __316 _375 _428 _ 1119___ 3179 Deformation Zone _ (1/8) ______ 68 __ 30 __ 25 __ 123 __ 40 __ 50 __ 98 __ 188 ____ 311 __ 62 _ 30^_ 68 ___ 160 ____ 471 Best scores for the locations and regions FORECASTER _______________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ east __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ cent __ c/e ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA __ west ___ Totals DonSutherland1 ______________ 2 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 2 ______ 2 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 3 ____ 3 _____ 0 ____ 3 ____ 1 _____ 0 _____ 1 __ Jan BKViking _____________________ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 2 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 2 _____ 0 _____ 1 __ Apr RodneyS _____________________ 2 ____ 2 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 1 ____ 2 ____ 0 ____ 2 ____ 1 _____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 1 _____ 2 __ Feb, Jul wxdude64 ____________________ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 1 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 2 _____ 1 __ Mar (t) ___ Consensus _______________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ wxallannj _____________________ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 0 ______ 1 ____ 1 ____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 3 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 2 _____ 0 __ Tom __________________________ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 1 _____ 1 __ May hudsonvalley21 _______________ 0 ____ 0 ____0 _____ 1 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 3 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ ___ Normal ___________________ 2 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ____ 2 ____ 0 _____ 1 _____ 1 __ May, Jul so_whats_happening _________ 2 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 1 ____ 2 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 1 __ Mar (t) Scotty Lightning ______________ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ RJay _________________________ 0 ____ 1 _____ 4 _____ 1 ______ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ Roger Smith __________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 1 ____ 1 ____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 _____ 1 __Jun Deformation Zone ____________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- EXTREME FORECAST STANDINGS High score must go to either the extreme warm or cold forecast, or second most extreme, for a station to qualify. So far this year, 46 locations out of 63 have qualified, 4 in Jan, 5 in Feb, 7 in March, 6 in April, 8 in May, June and July. Of those, 22 were awarded to warmest forecasts, 24 to coldest. A loss in the standings represents a case where second most extreme forecast had the high score and the win for that month. Normal can only win along with a forecaster. There have been six shared wins (one by three) accounting for the 46 total wins (excl Normal). FORECASTER _________ Jan __ Feb __ Mar _ Apr _ May _ Jun _ Jul _____ TOTAL to date RodneyS ______________ ---- __ --- __ ---- __ --- __ 2-1 __ 1-0 __ 6-0 ___ 9-1 wxallannj ______________ ---- __ --- __ --- __ 3-0 __ 2-0 __ 3-0 __ --- ___ 8-0 ___ Normal _____________--- __ --- __ 2-0 __ ---- __ 1-0 __ --- __ 5-0 ___ 8-0 DonSutherland1 _______ 2-0 __ 1-0 __ 2-0 __ 0-1 __ 2-0 __ 1-0 __ --- ___ 8-1 Roger Smith ___________ 2-1 __ 2-0 __ --- __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ 2-0 __ --- ___ 8-1 RJay ___________________ --- __ --- __ 2-0 __ 2-0 __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ --- ___ 6-0 so_whats_happening ___--- __ 1-0 __ 2-0 __ --- __ --- __ 1-0 __ ---- ___ 4-0 wxdude64 _____________ --- __ 1-0 __ 2-0 __ --- __ --- __ --- __ ---- ___ 3-0 Tom ____________________---- __ --- __ --- __ --- __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ ---- ___ 2-0 BKViking _______________ ---- __ --- __ --- __ --- __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ 0-1 ___ 2-1 Scotty Lightning _______ ---- __ --- __ ---- __ --- __ --- __ 1-1 __ 1-0 ___ 2-1 Deformation Zone _____ ---- __ --- __ --- __ --- __ --- __ ---- __ 1-0 ___ 1-0