Roger Smith

I'm thinking in retrospect the one weakness of the setup that forced it down from high risk outcome to more like moderate risk, was that the cold front was never aligned at much of an angle to the flow, and also with the upper dynamics so far back to the west, that allowed secondary heat low features to form in eastern NM that probably took a lot of energy out of the dry line. Even with those handicaps, the front managed to produce many severe cells and quite a few tornados. The warm front sector also underperformed by failing to push very far north of its morning position so that cells were having to deal with very cool temperatures almost immediately. In fact by about 23z there really wasn't any classic warm sector look to this at all, it was just one long wavy front from north of Tulsa to south of Midland TX. This is one endeavour where a bust is actually a good thing for 99.9% of the population. It's only us weather enthusiasts who might see it as a bad thing.

TRAVEL WEST OF GUTHRIE ALONG HIGHWAY 114 IS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED. Could they not get a couple of cops to block the road? The cell has been developing for about an hour.

Maybe we're relying a bit too much on exit polling here. I would say up to this point in time this has been a moderate risk type outcome, but it's only going to require one of these cells to beef up and hit a populated area to change perceptions, whether that is totally related to verification or not. How do we know for example that some of those shots near Mangum OK weren't showing an F4 over a farmland area where it could proceed for several minutes without hitting anything substantial, yet on another day, the same funnel cloud hits a subdivision or a town and leaves a much different memory. Also there's still 2-3 hours of time before this is even likely to start decreasing in intensity. The dry line has just been hanging out west of Plainview and Lubbock all afternoon, when it turns a bit and starts pushing, then the dynamics for this may improve for a short time before the MCS or squall line outcome takes over and that in itself may be a fairly severe event for OKC.

We're only around half time in this outbreak, if that, so would not be writing any obits for it yet. Storm outflow at LBB (airport is nne of city) was gusting to 55 knots southeast at the same time (2121z) as severe warned radar echoes about 5 miles east and 8 miles south of location, telling me that the storm to the south was increasing in strength then. As others stated earlier, dry line is encroaching on storm zone here and south now, expect some strong development next three or four hours. Eventually I think it morphs into a massive MCS with possible squall line for central and eastern OK throughout the night. That would mean less severe but more widespread damage than a tornadic scenario but that would develop first in western OK. Clinton may be close to the eventual peak of tornadic activity before the MCS phase begins. I will predict developing MCS passage at OKC at or about 03z (10 pm CDT). Clinton south to about Hobart OK max tornadic risk about 00z to 01z (7-8 p.m. CDT).

I assume May 20 is the first high risk? If so, congrats to rolltide_130 who said May 24, and OKstorm with May 4. Third closest was freshgeek at April 30th. All other guesses were mostly in April, one was for late March and a few said no high risk. Minnesota_storms had April 26th but added EF5 for May 23rd (remains to be seen later today?). My remaining chance at success in this thread rests on the above consensus seasonal total (which was not quite the highest one offered). I don't know how that's going.

For validation, what does 60% tornado risk mean? If it means 60% chance of a tornado occurring in the watch area, that seems too low (but other products indicate a 95% chance which also seems 5% too low ). If it means 60% of the watch area will experience a tornado, that seems statistically too high, depending on what is meant by "experience a tornado" -- if it means 60% of the watch zone will be converted to tornado warning boxes then perhaps that comes close to reality here (and we all know that within any given tornado warning box there will likely be a 10-20 per cent conversion to tornado conditions along an actual track within that box).

Since we have this thread emerging from the rubble of the main thread, I would suggest to the OP or a moderator to edit this thread title to May 20 2019 High Risk TX-OK outbreak or something similar. Will repeat the basic overview of a post that I made in the other thread. The dynamics for this event actually continue to increase well beyond the daytime heating period so I would look for this major outbreak to sustain well into the overnight as it moves out of the TX panhandle into western and even central OK. Main threat will be later afternoon when dry line catches up to developing cold front now in TX panhandle to Midland-Odessa region. Dry line potential is high as shown by 20F dew points in east-central NM. Numerous supercells can be expected in vicinity of cold front and dry line especially when they get less separation under accelerating flow from west at upper levels. Some similarity to the Goodland KS situation only further south in this instance. Somewhere between Clinton OK and Wichita Falls TX might be location of most severe storm(s) of this outbreak but anywhere between Amarillo and OKC south into Wichita Falls region at high risk.

The main significance of that clearing would be that it allows rapid heating of the surface layers in the warm sector developing over a region south of Lubbock TX. Perhaps more ominous is the clearing in east central NM on your image, that represents the zone between the cold front (currently lying across s.e. NM into far western panhandles of TX and OK) and the eventual dry line feature. In this set-up, what normally happens is that the cold front becomes the focus for some supercell development by mid-afternoon, with the dry line accelerating and catching up to it, causing explosive development. Either the dry line becomes a primary focus for severe storms by the peak stages (which I think will be quite late in the day given the dynamics) or the dry line essentially merges with the cold front with the same result. Looking at the current guidance, the dry line will likely form over eastern NM by about 20z with the cold front approaching an AMA-LBB-MAF line. Then both will accelerate east but the dry line looks likely to be sweeping through the TX panhandle to reach western OK by 03z with the cold front then only 50-100 miles east of it. Would suggest that the result will be two lines of supercells, the first one associated with cold front having more development into the Wichita Falls to Abilene region compared to the dry line where the development may cut off a bit further north (Childress possibly). Meanwhile some severe storms will form out ahead of all that near the warm front which looks likely to stall near the OK-KS border and rotate slowly north into south central KS. My guess as to most severe potential would be Lubbock to Clinton OK. ============================================================ Here's a rough graphic of the air mass boundaries to be expected and the air mass characteristics ... valid for late afternoon with maximum heating potential realized. COOL DRY AIR MASS... DL .. P .... CF ... mT temps 65-72 ..........// .. 85-95 .. // ..... 83-88 dp 20-30 .......... // .. 50-60 .. // ..... 70-75 So in that schematic you have the dry line, P for "polar" air mass (an old term, think of it as Pacific origin transitional air mass that can be quite warm under subtropical sun angles) then the cold front (CF) and the mT (maritime tropical) air mass (moist Gulf air now in place over most of TX and OK). The P sector between the tropical air and the cooler air with much lower dew points (Ruidoso NM already has dew points below 20 F) will become very windy by afternoon (WSW 40G60) with winds in the warm sector continuing more like SSW 20-30. Every actual situation has its own little variations from this sort of statistical average. In today's outbreak, what I noticed was that the upper dynamics become much stronger in the interval from 00z to 06z, with the upper level low crossing most of NM in that time frame and forcing the dynamics ahead to become more ominous. So once the daytime heating cycle comes to a close, this situation will actually be ramping up (something like this happened with the Goodland KS event) and the peak will likely be after dark. Rather than southwest KS in this case I would flag the western third of OK, eastern half of TX panhandle and some adjacent parts of TX around Wichita Falls for the most damaging storm potential. Let's hope they stay over open country.

<<<<< ===== ----- ----- ----- ----- Annual Contest Scoring Jan-May 2019 ----- ----- ----- ----- ===== >>>>> A new look for the annual table this year, will continue with the all nine format of monthly scoring. Best score tallies will be handled in a separate table. From now to end of 2019, best scores will be tabulated for the eleven regular participants and this will continue with any new or temporary additions getting best scores in addition to those. Highest cumulative scores are shown in red in this table (for nine locations) or bold for subtotals. FORECASTER _____________DCA_NYC_BOS __east__ ORD_ATL_IAH__cent __ c/e ___ DEN_PHX_SEA __west___all 9 TOTAL RodneyS ________________ 285 _398 _380__1063 __322 _330 _422__1074__2137__355 _334 _288 __ 977 ___3114 DonSutherland.1 __________281 _424 _320 __1025 __286 _276 _406 __ 968 __ 1993 __ 319 _358_312__ 989___2982 ___ Consensus ___________ 325_432_360 __1117__314 _274 _382 __ 970 __ 2087 __ 279 _290 _248 __ 817 ___2904 wxdude64 _______________321 _403 _351 __1075 __345 _238 _365 __ 948 __ 2023 __ 284 _281 _213 __ 778____ 2801 wxallannj ________________316 _366 _372 __1054 __252 _334_376 __ 962 __2016 __ 226 _294 _226 __ 746 ____2762 hudsonvalley21 ___________277 _432 _376__1085 __274 _292 _368 __ 934 __2019 __ 191 _300 _244 __ 735 ____2754 Roger Smith _____________ 318 _360 _348 __1026 __222 _244 _356 __ 822 __1848 __ 331 _246 _258 __ 835 ____2683 BKViking ________________ 327 _430 _358 __1115__285 _228 _343 __ 856 __1971 __ 231 _240 _211 __ 682 ____2653 Tom ____________________233 _392 _292 ___917 __ 370 _176 _382 __ 928 __1845 __209 _272 _228 __ 709 ____2554 Scotty Lightning ___________275 _392 _368 __1035 __270 _272 _366 __ 908 __1943 __ 146 _236 _214 __ 596 ____2539 ___ Normal ______________ 212 _412 _340 __ 964 __ 298 _170 _376 __ 844 __1808 __ 165 _323 _191 __ 679 ____2487 Stebo (4/5) ______________ 283 _327 _310 __ 920 __242 _219 _275 __ 736 __1656 __ 227 _217 _125 __ 569 ____2225 RJay (4/5) _______________ 162 _246 _216 __ 624 __256 _185 _288 __ 729 __1353 __ 263 _279 _188 __ 730 ____2083 _______________________________________________________________________ Best scores in each category _ (nine locations, three regional subtotals, and central-eastern or "original six" subtotal (c/e) as well as all nine). _ These are best scores in each monthly contest, best total scores are highlighted in the table above in red. Order for best scores will be based on rank in table above. FORECASTER __________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA__west___all nine RodneyS _______________ 1 ___1 ___1 ___ 2 ___ 3 ___1 ___1 ___ 3 ___ 2 ___ 2 ___1 ___0 ___ 2 ____ 2 _ APR,MAY DonSutherland.1 _________0 ___1 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___0 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___3 ___ 1 ____ 0 ___Consensus ___________1 ___0 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0 wxdude64 ______________ 1 ___0 ___0 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___1 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 1 __ MAR wxallannj _______________0 ___1 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___1 ___ 0 ____ 0 hudsonvalley21 __________0 ___1 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___0 ___0 ___ 1 ____ 1 __ JAN Roger Smith ____________ 3 ___0 ___0 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___2 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___1 ___0 ___ 1 ____ 0 BKViking _______________ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0 Tom ___________________0 ___1 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___0 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0 Scotty Lighning __________0 ___0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___1 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ Normal _____________ 1 ___2 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0 Stebo __________________1 ___0 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ___ FEB RJay ___________________0 ___0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0 __________________________________________________________________________________ Extreme forecasts STANDINGS to date in 2019 RodneyS ____________ 9-3 Roger Smith _________ 8-3 DonSutherland1 ______ 7-0 Scotty Lightning ______ 3-0 Normal __________ 3-0 Stebo ______________ 3-1 wxallannj ____________2-1 hudsonvalley21 _______1-0 RJay ________________1-0 Tom ________________1-1 ______________________________________________________________________________

Final scoring for May 2019 These scores are based on confirmed end of month anomalies in the previous post. DCA will remain on normal scoring as RodneyS scored 64. Scoring progression is used for ATL, DEN and PHX (forecasters score at least 60,52,44,36,28,20,12,06,00 in each case replaced by actual raw score if that were higher). These scores are in play for ATL where RodneyS has a raw score of 49 and DEN where RodneyS has a raw score of 47 also. The projection at PHX is even more drastic (-5.0), DonS (-0.1) had a raw score of 1 point for lowest forecast, and everyone else zero, so the progression certainly is needed there. FORECASTER ______________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__ c/e __DEN_PHX_SEA__west____TOTAL (all nine) RodneyS __________________ 64 _ 96 _82 __242__ 92_ 60_ 88__240__ 482 __ 60 _ 52 _ 64 __ 176_____ 658 DonSutherland1 ____________ 34 _ 78 _ 94__ 206 __ 74 _ 44 _ 94__212 __ 418 __ 44 _ 60 _ 16 __ 120 _____ 538 wxallannj __________________54 _ 52 _ 70 __ 176 __ 64 _ 52 _ 68__190 __ 366 __ 20 _ 44 _ 66 __ 130 _____ 496 ____ Consensus ____________ 36 _ 76 _ 88 __ 200 __ 68 _ 28 _ 72__174 __ 374 __ 28 _ 28 _ 46 __ 102 _____ 476 BKViking __________________ 42 _ 76 _ 92 __ 210__ 58 _ 20 _ 78__156 __ 366 __ 12 _ 36 _ 50 __ 098 _____ 464 Tom ______________________38 _ 64 _ 68 __ 170 __ 74 _ 36 _ 76__186 __ 356 __ 36 _ 06 _ 26 __ 068 _____ 424 hudsonvalley21 _____________ 26 _ 72 _ 84 __ 182 __ 62 _ 28 _ 86__176 __ 358 __ 06 _ 28 _ 24 __ 058 _____ 416 ____ Normal _______________ 00 _ 96 _ 98 __194 __ 78 _ 00 _ 66__144 __ 338 __ 00 _ 52 _ 10 __ 072 _____ 410 wxdude64 _________________ 36 _ 56 _ 60 __ 162 __ 56 _ 09 _ 70__135 __ 287 __ 28 _ 28 _ 54 __ 110 _____ 397 Scotty Lightning _____________20 _ 86 _ 88 __ 194 __ 68 _ 12 _ 96 __176 __370 __ 00 _ 12 _ 10 __ 022 _____ 392 Roger Smith _______________ 00 _ 80 _ 72 __ 152 __ 92 _00 _ 42 __134 __ 286 __ 52 _ 00 _ 46 __ 098 _____ 384 ______________________________________________________________________ Extreme forecasts for May 2019 Eight locations qualify. For DCA (+5.0) RodneyS (+3.2) has a win. For NYC (-0.2) RodneyS (0.0) has a win and Roger Smith (-1.2) has a loss. For BOS (-0.1) third lowest forecast has high score so BOS does not qualify. For ORD (-1.1), RodneyS and Roger Smith tie for a win with shared lowest forecasts (-1.5). For ATL, RodneyS has high forecast (+3.1) with the finish at +6.3. For IAH, Scotty Lightning has the win with high forecast (+1.5) which is cooler than the final value of +1.8. For DEN, RodneyS (-2.1) has the win with coldest forecast, final value is -5.5. For PHX, DonSutherland1 (-0.1) with coldest forecast has a win as the outcome is -5.9. For SEA, wxallannj (+2.8) with warmest forecast has a win with the result +4.5.

My move has come to a generally successful conclusion (I have internet anyway) ... so here's an update and the first projections of the month. ____________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA _____ (anom 7 d) _____+6.7 _--0.4 _--2.1 ___ --4.6 _+6.6 _+1.5 ___ --1.4 _--1.4 _+4.0 _____ (anom 17d) ____ +2.8 _--2.3 _--2.5 ___ --3.4 _+4.0 _--0.3 ___ --1.2 _--2.2 _+5.7 _____ (anom 24d) _____+3.7 _--0.8 _--0.3 ___ --2.6 _+5.2 _+1.3 ___ --5.6 _--5.3 _+4.8 _____ (p24 d) ________+3.5 _--0.5 _--0.8 ___ --1.8 _+5.0 _+1.0 ___ --2.3 _--2.5 _+4.0 18th_ (p31 d) ________ +3.0 _--0.5_--1.0 ___ --1.5 _+4.0 _+1.5 ___ --2.0 _--1.5 _+3.0 25th_ (p31 d) ________ +5.0 _+0.5_+0.5 ___ --1.0 _+6.0 _+2.0 ___ --4.5 _--5.0 _+3.5 1st _ final anomalies __ +5.0 _--0.2 _--0.1 ___--1.1 _+6.3 _+1.7 ___ --5.5 _--5.9 _+4.5 (25th) _ The previous week was well predicted by NWS (except for DEN where snow probably lowered the temperatures more than predicted) but the coming week was not well handled in the GFS 8-14 day outlook from 18th, now it's more of a heat wave showing up in the east, especially for DCA and ATL, so anomalies are pushed up considerably for end of month there. (June 1st) _ Final anomalies are now posted and scoring adjusted where necessary.

Just for interest, these are the all-time record highs at the four main airport locations (or nearby for older records): BWI _ 107 on July 10, 1936 DCA _ 106 on July 20, 1930 and Aug 6, 1918 IAD _ 105 on July 22, 2011 (shorter period of record does not overlap the dates above) RIC _ 107 on Aug 6, 1918 (Interesting that Toronto has the same dates for its July and August records, 105 on 8th to 10th July 1936 and 102 on 7th of Aug 1918 ... the records shown above were almost matched on August 7, 1918). (and yes I think my forecast of very hot summer temperatures will extend as far north as NYC including PA -- I will edit my numbers down by 1 deg after seeing these stats).

Anomalies after first week +6.7 _ --0.4 _ --2.1 __ --4.6 _ +6.6 _ +1.5 ___ --1.4 _ --1.4 _ +4.0 (trends look broadly similar, will not have much time to update this thread until later parts of the month, moving house in the next week or so)

Ah good to see this is happening. I foresee a very hot summer developing and perhaps some near-record temperatures. (edit down 1 deg after checking all-time records) BWI 107 DCA 106 IAD 105 RIC 108 HGR 104

Table of forecasts for May 2019 FORECASTER ______________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA RodneyS __________________ +3.2__0.0_--1.0 _ --1.5_+3.1_+1.1 ___ --2.1__0.0_+2.7 wxallannj __________________ +2.7_+2.2_+1.4 _ +0.7_+2.8_+0.4 ___ --0.3_+0.1_+2.8 BKViking __________________ +2.1_+1.0_+0.3 _ +1.0_+1.3_+0.6 ___ --0.2_+0.2_+2.0 Tom ______________________ +1.9_+1.6_+1.5 _ +0.2_+2.2_+0.5 ___ --0.8_+0.6_+0.8 wxdude64 _________________ +1.8_+2.0_+1.9 _ +1.1_+0.9_+0.2 ___ --0.6_+0.3_+2.2 ____ Consensus ____________ +1.8_+1.0_+0.5 _ +0.5_+1.9_+0.6 ___ --0.6_+0.3_+1.8 DonSutherland1 _____________ +1.7_+0.9_+0.2 _ +0.2_+2.3_+1.4 ___ --1.0_--0.1_+0.3 hudsonvalley21 _____________ +1.3_+1.2_+0.7 _ +0.8_+1.9_+1.0 ___ --0.1_+0.3_+0.7 Scotty Lightning _____________+1.0_+0.5_+0.5 _ +0.5_+1.0_+1.5 ____ 0.0_+0.5__0.0 ____ Normal ________________ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 __ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ____0.0 __0.0 __0.0 Roger Smith _______________ --1.0_--1.2_--1.5 _ --1.5_--0.7_--1.2 ___ --2.0_+2.7_+1.8 Seasonal Max contest for 2019 Roger Smith _______________ 107 _ 104 _ 105 __ 103 _ 101 _ 101 __ 104 _ 120 _ 100 wxdude64 _________________ 102 _ 100 _ 101 __ 100 __ 99 _ 104 __ 102 _ 118 __ 95 Scotty Lightning ____________ 102 _ 100 __ 98 ___ 96 _ 101 _ 105 ___ 95 _ 117 __ 93 hudsonvalley21 _____________ 101 _ 100 __ 96 ___ 99 __ 99 _ 103 __ 100 _ 116 __ 94 BKViking __________________ 100 __ 98 __ 96 ___ 99 __ 99 _ 100 __ 100 _ 117 __ 94 DonSutherland1 _____________100 __ 98 __ 96 ___ 96 __ 98 _ 102 ___ 98 _ 117 __ 93 Tom _______________________99 __ 99 __ 96 ___100 _ 101 _ 102 ___ 99 _ 119 __ 97 RodneyS ___________________ 99 __ 98 __ 96 ___ 95 __ 99 _ 101 ___ 98 _ 116 __ 92 wxallannj ___________________ 97 __ 96 __ 95 ___ 96 __ 98 _ 100 __ 100 _ 116 __ 95

Some snow fell in the last two weeks and tables have been updated. The only significant outcome is that DonSutherland.1 takes the top spot for ORD. If the only future changes are more snow at MQT, that will be noted in edits here and tables.

--1.0 _ --1.2 _ --1.5 _ --1.5 _ --0.7 _ --1.2 _ --2.0 _ +2.7 _ +1.8 107 __ 104 __ 105 __ 103 __ 101 __ 101 __ 104 __ 120 __ 100 I think it might be a very hot summer.

<<<<< ===== ----- ----- ----- ----- Annual Contest Scoring Jan-Apr 2019 ----- ----- ----- ----- ===== >>>>> A new look for the annual table this year, will continue with the all nine format of monthly scoring. Best score tallies will be handled in a separate table. From now to end of 2019, best scores will be tabulated for the eleven regular participants and this will continue with any new or temporary additions getting best scores in addition to those. Highest cumulative scores are shown in red in this table (for nine locations) or bold for subtotals. FORECASTER _____________DCA_NYC_BOS __east__ ORD_ATL_IAH__cent __ c/e ___ DEN_PHX_SEA __west___all 9 TOTAL RodneyS ________________ 221 _302 _298 __ 821 __230 _270 _334 __ 834 __1655 __ 295 _282 _224 __ 801 ____2456 DonSutherland.1 __________247 _346 _226 __ 819 __212 _232 _312 __ 756 __1575 __ 275 _298 _296__ 869____2444 ___ Consensus ___________ 289 _356 _272 __ 917 __246 _246 _304 __ 796 __1713 __ 251 _262 _202 __ 715 ____2428 wxdude64 _______________285 _347 _291 __ 923 __289 _229 _295 __ 813__1736 __256 _253 _159 __668____ 2404 hudsonvalley21 ___________251 _360 _292 __ 903 __212 _264 _282 __ 758 __1661 __ 185 _272 _220 __ 677 ____2338 Roger Smith _____________ 318 _280_276 __ 874 __130 _244 _314 __ 688 __1562 __ 279 _246 _212 __ 737 ____2299 wxallannj ________________262 _314 _302 __ 878 __188 _282_302 __ 772 __1650 __ 206 _250 _160 __ 616 ____2266 Stebo ___________________283 _327 _310 __ 920 __242 _219 _275 __ 736 __1656 __ 227 _217 _125 __ 569 ____2225 BKViking _________________285 _354_266 __ 905 __227 _208 _265 __ 700 __1605 __ 219 _204 _161 __ 584 ____2189 Scotty Lightning ___________255 _306 _280 __ 841 __202 _260 _270 __ 732 __1573 __ 146 _224 _204 __ 574 ____2147 Tom ____________________195 _328 _224 __ 747 __ 296 _140 _306 __ 742 __1489 __ 173 _266 _202 __ 641 ____2130 RJay ____________________162 _246 _216 __ 624 __256 _185 _288 __ 729 __1353 __ 263 _279 _188 __ 730 ____2083 ___ Normal ______________212 _316 _242 __ 770 __220 _170 _310 __ 700 __1470 __ 155 _271 _181 __ 607 ____2077 _______________________________________________________________________ Best scores in each category _ (nine locations, three regional subtotals, and central-eastern or "original six" subtotal (c/e) as well as all nine). _ These are best scores in each monthly contest, best total scores are highlighted in the table above in red. Order for best scores will be based on rank in table above. FORECASTER __________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA__west___all nine RodneyS _______________ 0 ___0 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___0 ___1 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___1 ___0 ___ 1 ____ 1 _ APR DonSutherland.1 _________0 ___1 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___0 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___3 ___ 1 ____ 0 ___Consensus ___________1 ___0 ___0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0 wxdude64 ______________ 1 ___0 ___0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___1 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 1 hudsonvalley21 __________0 ___1 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___0 ___0 ___ 1 ____ 1 Roger Smith ____________ 3 ___0 ___0 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___2 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___1 ___0 ___ 1 ____ 0 wxallannj _______________0 ___1 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0 Stebo __________________1 ___0 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 1 BKViking _______________ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0 Scotty Lighning __________ 0 ___0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___1 ___ 0 ____ 0 Tom ___________________0 ___1 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___0 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0 RJay ___________________0 ___0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ Normal _____________ 1 ___1 ___0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0 __________________________________________________________________________________ Extreme forecasts STANDINGS to date in 2019 Roger Smith _________ 7-2 DonSutherland1 ______ 6-0 RodneyS ____________ 4-2 Stebo ______________ 3-1 Scotty Lightning ______ 2-0 hudsonvalley21 _______1-0 RJay ________________1-0 Normal ______________1-0 Tom ________________1-1 wxallannj ____________1-1 ______________________________________________________________________________

Final scoring for April 2019 DCA scoring -- highest raw score is only 44, so scoring goes to max of 60 rule, then down in increments of 6 pts. Below 42 points, raw scores are higher than the progression, so those scores revert to normal scoring. Late penalties for 1 or 2 per cent are shown in one line, * for one point deducted and ** for two. FORECASTER _________________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent __ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA__west_____TOTAL RodneyS _____________________ 33 _ 90 _ 68 __ 191 __ 98 _ 68 _ 90 __256 __447 __ 88 _ 84 _ 88__ 260 _____ 707 Roger Smith __________________ 60 _ 92 _ 64 __216 __ 56_ 94 _ 44 __194 __ 410 __ 96 _ 84_ 82 __ 262 _____ 672 DonSutherland.1 _______________35 _ 92 _ 56 __ 183 __ 46 _ 70 _ 92__ 208 __ 391 __ 86 _ 80 _ 98__ 264 _____ 655 ___ Consensus ________________35 _ 90 _ 56 __ 181 __ 96 _ 70 _ 76 __ 242 __ 423 __ 78 _ 58 _ 78 __ 214 _____ 637 wxallannj ____________________ 42 _ 90 _ 44 __ 176 __ 96 _ 62 _ 88 __ 246 __ 422 __ 90 _ 58 _ 46 __ 194 _____ 616 BKViking _____ (-2%) __________ 53*_84** 49*__186 __ 71*_71* _74* _ 216 __402 __ 45*_51*_82**_ 178 _____ 580 Tom _________________________27 _ 82 _ 56 __ 165 __ 70 _ 58 _ 82 __ 210 __ 375 __ 78 _ 58 _ 68 __ 204 _____ 579 hudsonvalley21 ________________31 _ 96 _ 62 __ 189 __ 80 _ 76 _ 66 __ 222 __ 411 __ 44 _ 42 _ 72 __ 158 _____ 569 wxdude64 ____ (-1%) __________41*_ 87*_61*__ 189 __ 61*_ 69*_ 71*__201__ 390 __ 29*_55*_87*__171 _____ 561 Scotty Lightning _______________ 25 _ 72 _ 48 __ 145 __ 96 _ 64 _ 74 __ 234 __ 379 __ 66 _ 48 _ 68 __ 182 _____ 561 Stebo _______________________ 48 _ 94 _ 72 __ 214 __ 96 _ 74 _ 74 __ 244 __ 458 __ 36 _ 28 _ 38 __ 102 _____ 560 RJay ________________________ 15 _ 72 _ 48 __ 135 __ 76 _ 68 _ 84 __ 228 __ 363 __ 86 _ 68 _ 78 __ 232 _ 595 RJay __________ (-10%) _______ 14 _ 65 _ 43 __ 122 __ 68 _ 61 _ 76 __ 205 __ 327 __ 77 _ 61 _ 70 __ 208 _____ 535 ___ Normal ___________________ 00 _ 52 _ 28 __ 080 __ 84 _ 34 _ 96 __ 214 __ 294 __ 66 _ 48 _ 58 __ 172 _____ 466 ___________________________________________________________ Extreme forecasts for April 2019 DCA, ATL and DEN (Roger Smith), BOS (Stebo), PHX (RodneyS tied with Roger Smith) and SEA (DonSutherland1) all finished above high forecast. NYC (+2.4) was a win for hudsonvalley (+2.2) and a loss for Stebo (+2.7). IAH at +0.2 is a win for DonS and a loss for wxallannj with low forecast. ORD finished near consensus and does not qualify.

Due to a planned week away, I am posting this early, should be back by 30th to add my own forecast. As per recent years, we will add a seasonal MAX component for the same nine locations (highest temperature you forecast for all of 2019). Predict the temp anomaly (F deg) and seasonal MAX for DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA (the seasonal MAX can be edited or submitted up to May 15th). Have somewhat relaxed late penalties for various entries in past months, so will standardize some new more relaxed deductions as follows: -1% for any portion of six hours each of the first six hour intervals, so -6% to 18z May 2 -1% for any portion of three hours thereafter to 18z May 3, then 1% per hour (fully expires 08z May 7th). Sometime when I have a moment, I will go back over late penalties and see if any of them would be reduced by these formulae but I don't think they would because I have been about that lenient anyway.

I don't see much chance of snow anywhere except possibly MQT (where it won't affect the contest) in the next ten days, but if any does fall, I won't be around to post any new scoring, will be back to the internet around April 30th.

This graphic shows how actual snowfall compared to the eleven forecasts made for the contest. It is in pseudo-map format to make the regional breakdown a bit easier to see. The number at each station tells which forecast (ranked 1 to 11 with 1 being the most snow) is currently closest to the actual value. Any entries that show 1 as the value cannot change with any new snowfall. All other numbers 2 to 11 could change. When it's 11, that means low forecast is closest. (map edited at ORD after Apr 27) ......................................................... MQT 1 ................................ .................................................................................. APN 1 .............. .......................MSP 1 ............GRB 1 .......................................................... YYZ 2 ................................LSE 1 ...........................................................YXU 11 ....... .............................................. MKE 1 .........GRR 3 ........................................ ................................MLI 1.......ORD 1 .......................DTW 11 ....... .................................................................FWA 11.......................... CLE 11 .........................................PIA 1 ......................................................... ...........................................................IND 10..................CMH 6 ...... ................STL 5 ........................................SDF 9 ............... ................................PAH 11.......................................... This table shows who has the closest forecasts for each location (and notes who could take over the lead with additional snow) LOCATION __ Amount __ Leader _____ Forecast __ error __ ranked ___ lead changes possible with more snow __ MQT _____ 227.5 __ vpbob21 ______ 216.0 ____-11.5 ____ 1 _______ none __ APN _______99.4 __ Mississauga snow _96.0 ____-3.4 ____ 1 _______ none __ GRR _______81.3 __ dmc76 _________ 82.0 ____+0.7 ____3 _______ DonSutherland1 at 83.1, Roger Smith at 90.0 __ MSP _______77.1 __ Roger Smith _____66.0 ___-11.1 ____ 1 _______ none __ GRB _______74.5 __ Roger Smith _____70.0 ____-4.5 ____ 1 _______ none __ LSE _______ 64.3 __ Roger Smith _____55.0 ____-9.3 ____ 1 _______ none __ MLI _______ 60.8 __ cyclone77 _______46.0 ___-14.8 ____ 1 _______ none __ YYZ _______ 55.1 __ Roger Smith _____55.0 ____-0.1 ____ 2 _______ dmc76 at 63.2 __ MKE _______56.1 __ dmc76 _________ 54.0 ____-2.1 ____ 1 _______ none __ ORD ______ 49.5 __ DonSutherland1 __50.0 ____ +0.5 ___ 1 _______ none __ PIA _______ 36.4 __ vpbob21 _______ 36.3 _____-0.1 ____ 1 _______ none __ CLE _______ 35.2 __ Mississauga Snow_41.0 ____+5.8 ___ 11 _______ vpbob21 at 49.5, DAFF at 50.0, all others higher __ YXU _______ 34.0 __ Stebo __________ 60.0 ___+26.0 ___11 _______ Jackstraw at 64.0, all others higher __ DTW _______31.3 __ slowpoke _______ 38.0 ___ +6.7 ___ 11 _______ DAFF at 39.0, cyclone77 and Jackstraw at 41.0, all others higher __ CMH _______27.4 __ madwx _________ 27.3 ___ -0.1 ____ 6 ________ slowpoke and cyclone77 at 29.0, vpbob21 at 34.7, two others higher __ FWA _______24.7 __ cyclone77 _______ 26.0 ___ +1.3 ___11 ________ slowpoke, DAFF and Roger Smith at 30.0, seven others higher __ STL ________24.2 __ cyclone 77 ______ 24.0 ___ -0.2 ____ 5 ________ dmc76 at 25.0, DonSutherland1 at 25.2, vpbob21 at 26.6, Miss' snow at 30.0 __ IND ________19.4 __ DAFF __________ 20.0 ___ +0.6 ___10 ________ cyclone77 at 24.0, slowpoke and Stebo at 25.0, six others higher __ SDF _______ 11.2 __ Mississauga Snow _11.0 ___ -0.2 ____ 9 _______ slowpoke and DAFF at 12.0, six others higher __ PAH ________ 6.1 __ cyclone77 _______ 11.0 ___ +5.9 __ 11 _______ madwx at 11.4, slowpoke and Roger Smith at 12.0, seven others higher. ____________________________________________________________________ Best forecast count ... Roger Smith, cyclone77 _____________4 Mississauga snow __________________ 3 vpbob21, dmc 76___________________ 2 Stebo, madwx, DAFF, slowpoke, DonS __1 __________________________________________

Congrats to the winner and top ten leaderboard. It was an interesting winter even if not as epic as many had hoped. Maybe you should have a summer contest too, keep the interest up. Would suggest mean June to August temperature anomaly at BWI, total rainfall May to September at BWI and max temp at the four airports or just BWI. Maybe also number of severe weather warnings that include a chosen location (May to September). I don't think I should try to run a contest here, as a visitor to the shrine.

You never know ... here's the result of the snowfall yesterday and into early hours of today, now updated into tables above. For the main scoring table, vpbob21 moved into second but with no snow at STL or Ohio valley stations where he has an advantage, he is still 15.3" out of the lead, which means that 7.7" would have to fall at the right locations (plus twice whatever fell at GRR) so if he got the 2.4" to fall at STL still to his advantage plus any amount at CMH and SDF plus amounts greater than my residuals at IND (7.6") and PAH (5.9"), any of those results could move him into first, problem being that no snow is apparent on forecast charts to end of April in any of those places. This is the only route to get past my lead that I can see from the numbers. Anywhere else, we are either both in the red (most of the northern stations) or I have more left to give (CLE, DTW, YXU) so no help is available there. Slowpoke has fallen to third place and has no mathematical route back to second or first (other than an implausible very heavy snowfall at CLE to edge into second). I can't see any realistic paths for any other forecasters to move much further ahead than where they are now. So the contest is almost settled but there remains a slight chance of the needed results as discussed above. The percentage tables are also probably near their final outcomes. The order of finish there is somewhat different, mainly because the stations that underperformed like YXU, CLE and PAH have large enough percentage errors to swing the results, so the forecasters who went low there have a boost compared to their average departures.

Contest updated through April 11th, still some chance for vpbob21 to overtake the two ahead of him if enough snow were to fall at PIA, STL, ORD and possibly in the Ohio valley, without too much at GRR to negate the gains made. (see updates of scoring tables posted above, the first one back is an alternate scoring system using percentages, the main contest scoring has the date Feb 2 attached).