Jump to content

dallen7908

Members
  • Content count

    512
  • Joined

  • Last visited

About dallen7908

  • Rank
    Atmospheric Scientist

Profile Information

  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KDCA
  • Gender
    Not Telling
  • Location:
    College Park, MD

Recent Profile Visitors

The recent visitors block is disabled and is not being shown to other users.

  1. dallen7908

    The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand

    We'll have to wait and see here; a week out the Laurentian Mountains are certainly in the game
  2. dallen7908

    The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand

    For the most part I was impressed with how well the models did in the 2.5 - 6 day time frame. The models were mostly useless in the 8-14 day time frame; however, this is a time frame when models only provide useful information during certain windows when teleconnections indicate that a longer range forecast should have skill (certain combinations of the QBO MJO ENSO post-stratospheric warming).
  3. dallen7908

    The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand

    Pretty sure you're not serious but hope you're right; obviously, April 1st is very close to the time of year when only the day-10 model climate is cold enough for accumulating snow. It'll be memorable for sure. Keep the faith ocean temperatures are near their annual minimum. The EPS also has weak support for this "event" - at least north of DC
  4. dallen7908

    The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand

    Over the last 3 EPS cycles (00 and 12 UT today and 12 UT yesterday) the percent chance of exceeding 3" has increased from 10-20% for the northern part of our forum; while the chance for the DC-area has remained at 10-12%. Of course 4 cycles ago (00 UT yesterday) the chances throughout the area were ~4%
  5. dallen7908

    The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand

    8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 26 - APR 01, 2019 ... calls for above normal temperatures and precipitation Anomalous southerly low-level winds increase chances of above normal temperatures for parts of the eastern CONUS. ... the largest probabilities of above average precipitation in the East are restricted to near the coast as the storm system predicted in the 6-10 day period shifts eastward during the week-2 period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Below average, 2 out of 5, due to fairly good model and tool agreement over most of the domain, largely offset by significant differences between today's GEFS and ECMWF ensembles in the Eastern U.S.
  6. dallen7908

    The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand

    Actually, 10% of the members give DC > 3". The 4% value was for this morning's run. The value 24-hours ago was also 10%. Still in the noise ...
  7. dallen7908

    The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand

    ... hopefully we'll be reading the following soon ... 'The models are converging on the extreme solution ..." I remember reading that once before but can't recall when ...
  8. dallen7908

    The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand

    The only thing better than living in a FV3 world is living in a FV3 Day-10 world. Bring it on ... FWIW, 4% of the EPS members give the forum >3" of snow during the next 10 days
  9. dallen7908

    The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand

    Certainly the performance of the FV3 has been the biggest disappointment this past winter season. It is still scheduled to come on-line at the end of this month? If yes, can they fix their wintry precipitation algorithm by next December?
  10. dallen7908

    The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand

    12% of 12 UT EPS members give our area > 3" of snow/sleet from this hypothetical system; an increase from the 8% at 00 UT. If this "trend" continues for a few more cycles perhaps showmethesnow will re-up his weathermodels subscription!
  11. dallen7908

    The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand

    As part of my snow chase this winter, I took a Mt. Washington snow coach https://www.greatglentrails.com/snowcoach-2 to ~4300 feet and snowshoed down -- in a snow storm! On the way down, saw guys from Campbell Scientific testing instruments they hope to install on Mt. Everest. https://share.icloud.com/photos/0RoVoV-dq8xgKuJp_HisVdpkA I also parked on the edge of the road near the Appalachian Mountain club (just south of Mt. Washington) and snowshoed down to a Glen Ellis falls overlook. At the AMC, I saw several rugged looking men and women sporting snow picks who were returning from the summit. Other activities for the week included a moonlight snow shoe hike XC skiing at Jackson, MVC, Omni Mountain Washington Resort, and Bear Notch. Horse drawn sleigh rides at Nestlenook Farm and the Ice Castles. https://icecastles.com I encourage everyone to plan a winter trip to northern New England or the west next year. Tracking Mt. Washington's weather is much more enjoyable than tracking the weather here. It snowed on 2 of the 5 days I was there, and we only got stuck once.
  12. dallen7908

    The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand

    Euro tracks our storm over the Grand Bahamas or about 1400 km south of where we want it
  13. dallen7908

    The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand

    EPS snow fall mean over the next 15 days is ~0.3" for College Park. Even the 95th% ensemble member gives us < 1". GEFS snow fall mean over the next 16 days is between 0.5 and 1.0" for our area. However, the 06 UT GFS gives I-70 south T-2" of snow in the 5-6 day time frame as a weak clipper tries to intensify off the coast.
  14. dallen7908

    The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand

    Yes still a wide range of solutions over a 3-4 day window with various models tracking "our" storm through central Florida before going out to sea (e.g. GFS), giving us a glancing blow (CMC), snowing on Mt. Mitchell hikers (FV3-GFS) sending wind, snow, and/or rain to Halifax (Euro).
  15. dallen7908

    The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand

    Cool air would be long gone even if that storm were to move up the coast. Need the wave from 3-days prior to amplify.
×