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About dallen7908

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    Atmospheric Scientist

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  • Location:
    College Park, MD

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  1. UKMET not as optimistic as GGEM wrt snow chances
  2. Thanks for the ensembles. Perhaps going forward continue ending them at 18Z 31 March. Would be interesting to see if any of the perturbed members are more skillful. Of course, this would not be possible to determine this year when the least snowiest is almost always if not always the most accurate.
  3. The climate change tangent got me thinking of nordic skiing and a sign I saw this past January. Hopefully "forever" won't end sooner than the Doucettes' hope
  4. Low 40s and rain unless you head to Canaan Valley or Garrett County where accumulations of up to 6" are possible for the system according to the UMKMET through Saturday morning
  5. Strictly speaking the maps give the percent of ensemble members showing at least a certain amount of snow/sleet. They are a tool not a forecast.
  6. I'm heading to Colorado next week for a meeting followed by my third snow chase of the winter. My first two were North Conway, NH and Davis, WV. Any suggestions as to a good place to XC ski in the mountains west of the Denver/Boulder area?
  7. Yes 3 of the 21 06 UT GEFS members give the DC area winter storm warning conditions just one week from today! None of the other members give us any snow during that time frame. Go big or go home. Correction: one additional member gives us a trace next Thursday
  8. The official published National Weather Service (NWS) Cooperative Weather/Climate station on Canaan Valley's floor (3,254 ft.) has only reported 55.1 inches of snow for the 2019-20 winter through February 25, 2020. This is one of the lowest snowfall totals to that date in the Valley's 76-year snowfall record (began 1944-45). The 7-inch maximum depth recorded so far this winter is also currently the lowest maximum winter snow depth ever recorded in any winter! https://whitegrass.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/fearlessfeb26.txt
  9. Cherry picking an index for that time period
  10. Would be a fitting end to the season; however, I don't believe we've converged on a solution yet
  11. Just got around to checking last night's EPS. New seasonal low for snow fall mean of 0.2" for College Park. I suspect the low values may have more to do with March climatology than any worsening in our already dire outlook. Maryland had a home baseball game yesterday afternoon. Getting close to give up time for us snow lovers.
  12. The 8-14 day outlook calls for below normal temperatures and precipitation. Alberta clipper friendly given the forecast northwesterly flow?
  13. The 15-day EPS snowfall mean for College Park is in the 1 to 1.5" category, its largest in several days. 30 of the 51 members give measurable snow/sleet during that period 8 of the 51 members give measurable snow/sleet this week.
  14. I follow the link below all winter and was out in the Valley (at Whitegrass) in early February. I also follow several New England nordic ski weather updates. I also follow the weather discussion for Barrow (Utquigvik) beginning in September through late October. https://whitegrass.com/daily-report/