GoAPPS

SPC Convective Outlook for our region Wednesday, June 25: ...Southeast... Strong instability will develop during the afternoon over much of the region, with 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE common. Of note will be midlevel lapse rates greater than 7.0 C/km, suggesting robust convection is likely. Storms are expected to form around 21Z over the high terrain, and within a surface trough during peak heating over the central Carolinas. Slow moving at first, storms will form into clusters, with erratic motions possible. However, a general southerly trends is expected. The high PWAT content, steep lapse rates, and favorable time of day all suggest areas of damaging microbursts will develop. As such, the area has been upgraded to a Slight Risk. Scattered storms are expected farther south into GA, AL, and the FL Panhandle as well, within a southwest extension of the surface trough, and, possibly with the sea breeze. Forecast soundings in this region similarly show very strong instability, with west/southwest moving storm clusters likely producing damaging wind gusts.

I've been heading out into the woods over the past couple of weeks to photograph the blue ghost and synchronous fireflies!

Six months ago... This raccoon was one of three who were trapped on an island in the middle of the Helene floodwaters in the River Arts District of Asheville. One by one they worked up the courage to swim for the shore. This one stopped halfway across and rested on a metal pole that was sticking out of the water. This heartbreaking moment reminds me that it wasn't just people who lost everything. I left shortly after taking this picture, because I was worried my presence would stress the raccoon more than it already was. I hope it survived.

Look out, Western Upstate and Southwest NC.

Could the upper level snow be undermodeled based on how cold the air will be?

Light snow in Asheville.

I feel this as an Asheville resident. Pretty sure Wilmington has more total snow than us so far this year. People think it snows here a lot (because mountains), but they don’t know about the Asheville Snow Hole.

Idk, 32 inches in Goldsboro is a little sus.

Regardless of precipitation, we'll be in the ice box next week.

The Asheville snow hole was well modeled. I had hoped it was overdone, but it kept showing up run after run across all the models. Currently sleeting in West Asheville.

GFS total snowfall trend from Saturday's 18z run to today's 12z run.

Light snow in Asheville.

Some of the models keep insisting on a brief period of snow in the mountains tomorrow morning.