raindancewx

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  1. The 12-km NAM is trying to lower the winds enough down here for a good snowstorm. Looks pretty good for southern Colorado too.
  2. WPC is pretty optimistic for total precipitation in the Southwest over the next five days. The setup isn't that different from the system around 12/10. But we'll see how it goes. Day 1-3 looks about right to me. Not sure about the day 1-5.
  3. The 6-10 day outlook from CPC yesterday looked pretty warm for Texas. Long-term, a big +SOI December value is a very strong indicator for a warm February in the South, usually including Texas. Although the signal is weaker the further west you get. December 2020 was +16, 5th highest SOI value since 1931. I don't know that winter is over in Texas, but Texas weather is pretty strongly correlated to warmth when the PNA goes in the wrong phase like it is about to.
  4. The cold down here is kind of going as I expected. All of of my analogs had brief periods with intense storms in the Southwest - the problem is those periods are in different months. But they all also had extremely consistent dry periods. Either way favors cold - either cold highs or cold lows. The problem years are those like 2017-18, when you kind of had the subtropical jet over head to prevent extremely low dew points, but no impulses to bring rain or snow for months. The lows were kind of +1, and the highs were +5 generally in that pattern. This winter pattern so far is more like -1 or -2 for lows and 0 or -1 for highs overall. Conceptually, the WPO, EPO, PNA, NAO, and AO all support or at least don't contradict cold in the Southwest in January if you look at their individual temperature correlations. So it has been cold here. The La Nina warm signal is about 2:1 for northern NM/northern AZ, and the dry signal is about 2:1 for northern NM/northern AZ. So it's never that surprising to me when we beat one of the long-term signals. For southern areas of the Southwest, the dry signal is far stronger than that, more like 4:1. What will impress me is if the forecast system(s) in the coming week can actually deliver a lot of moisture again to the Southwest. If that happens, there is a real chance the winter finishes wetter than average in some areas. It's very rare to beat both the warm and the dry signal in a La Nina out here. The Euro keeps trying. The mountainous areas had well above normal snow in the Fall, so I think my idea of 50-90% of normal snowfall for most of New Mexico and most of the Southwest is going to hold up pretty well for the cold season. Albuquerque looked like it could have some epic season for snow in October, but the systems since keep missing the airport, so they've only had 0.5 inches of snow since October. Most of the city is around 8-15 inches compared to the 5.0 or so at the airport. Also wanted to mention: The Jamstec idea of a warmer Nino 1.2/3 in Spring, with Nino 4 still very cold looks realistic to me. If you look at years that match that solution, several of them, 2001, 2008, and 2012, have a passing resemblance to the temperature profile of Jan 1-15 this year.
  5. Spring 2021 on the Jamstec also looks a lot like Spring 2001, 2012, 2014.
  6. The JAMSTEC update has the eastern Nino zones continuing to warm into Summer, before reversing cooler after. No El Nino forms. But you do see this event warm out of a La Nina in the Spring, or even in February on the Jamsetc. The western areas never really warm out of the La Nina though. If the look below for Spring is right, almost think you could pull off a wet Spring in the Southwest with Nino 1.2 that warm. It's not that different from a cooled off 2017 look, where Nino 4 was cooler relatively to the eastern zones. Some pretty big storms that year in the Spring, including a couple blizzards. I think the Jamstec is trying to do something like a Spring 2008/2017 blend.
  7. The PNA is supposed to flip 1/20 or so. That makes sense given that we have real storms in the forecast again down here, which tends to happen when it flips. The other result is the cold should start to bleed into the Northeast. The long-term correlation of a +SOI December = Warm South February also appears to be setting up now as get near February following a +16 SOI reading in December (top five last 90 years).
  8. The time frame supported by the big system southeast of Kamchatka in late December and the recent large SOI crashes does look like it will have a big storm. Already looks like Albuquerque might get screwed by a big East wind with that system. It is only 4.5 - 6.5 days out though, and the GFS & Euro both show a lot of moisture with it. It looks like a strong system from the Gulf of Alaska so maybe it is pulling in subtropical moisture. I don't really look in detail until we're within 3.5 days of the entire event.
  9. It's interesting looking back at the +NAO in November. The value was +2.54, and then -0.30 in December. So far, the winter correlations are far closer to what you'd get from looking at +NAO Novembers rather than -NAO December or January years. You can see that the cold in the interior West and warm east look shows up after a +NAO November on the correlations map (blue = neg correlation to positive NAO, i.e. cold). That wasn't perfect for December, with Florida pretty cold and a lot of the South near average, but it's not bad for a map generated from one variable. CPC has the West heavily favored cold in the 6-10 day period, and it's already been cold in some places in the West for January to date. The new incoming cold may focus on the Northwest though, which again is consistent with the +NAO November.
  10. The storms in Sept-Oct came through when the WPO was in the opposite phase. Some hints it may flip back by the end of the month. I'd imagine it will be easier for the bigger cold/wet Fall storms in an otherwise warm pattern to recur if the WPO does flip. The subtropical tap may also open up a bit for storms if the pattern really does flip as much as it is supposed to in a week or two. The PNA is forecast to go negative for the first time in what...two months? The GFS has been showing something around a week from now, but it does look moisture starved.
  11. The time frame I mentioned above (1/14-1/18) for the Bering Sea Rule is now supported by the recent SOI crashes too (1/18-1/19). The theme this year has been moisture starved northern branch systems, so no reason to deviate from that until proven otherwise. 9 Jan 2021 1011.86 1006.35 4.25 19.34 10.60 8 Jan 2021 1013.12 1005.30 15.13 19.56 10.69 7 Jan 2021 1014.99 1004.95 25.58 19.23 10.68
  12. Keep your eye on that cold spot in the North Pacific. With some additional eastern Nino zone weakening and the north Pacific look, we could go to a Jan-Apr 2017 pattern fairly quickly. The PNA is forecast to go negative for the first time in a while, so there do seem to be changes coming with Nino 4 taking over as the coldest Nino zone compared to averages. It is interesting to see the PNA (projected) flip coinciding perfectly with the Bering Sea Rule and then also the recent big SOI crash. Some kind of big system is coming I think.
  13. Nino 4 has emerged as the coldest zone on the weekly data. Pretty neat to see that after it's warmth for the past decade. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 09DEC2020 22.4-0.1 24.3-0.8 25.4-1.2 27.7-0.8 16DEC2020 22.0-0.8 24.3-0.8 25.6-0.9 27.8-0.7 23DEC2020 22.1-1.1 24.5-0.7 25.7-0.9 27.6-0.8 30DEC2020 22.2-1.3 24.4-0.9 25.4-1.2 27.3-1.1 06JAN2021 23.1-0.8 24.7-0.8 25.5-1.1 27.1-1.2 For all the hype about this event ending up a strong La Nina in the Fall, it's not even close to recent big La Ninas like 1988, 1999, 2007 or 2010. It's really a bit behind 2011 overall. 07DEC2011 21.4-1.0 23.9-1.2 25.5-1.1 27.5-1.0 14DEC2011 21.5-1.2 24.1-1.0 25.6-1.0 27.4-1.1 21DEC2011 22.1-1.0 24.5-0.7 25.6-1.0 27.2-1.3 28DEC2011 22.6-0.9 24.4-0.9 25.5-1.1 27.1-1.3 04JAN2012 22.7-1.1 24.6-0.8 25.5-1.0 27.2-1.2 Part of why I used 2007-08 as a major analog for winter is because it does get very cold - eventually - in Nino 4 that event. But it's much slower than in 2010-11. We're still pretty close to 2007-08 in Nino 4 even as the other areas drift away from. In 2011-12, the La Nina didn't really drop Nino 4 below 27.0C - I think this event may still briefly get significantly under that threshold. We've been running 0.2C or so above 2007-08 Nino 4 readings pretty consistently. 26DEC2007 21.9-1.4 23.7-1.6 24.9-1.6 27.0-1.4 02JAN2008 22.6-1.1 23.9-1.5 25.0-1.6 26.8-1.6 09JAN2008 23.3-0.8 24.0-1.5 24.8-1.8 26.6-1.7 16JAN2008 24.1-0.4 24.0-1.6 24.6-2.0 26.6-1.7 23JAN2008 24.1-0.7 24.1-1.7 24.4-2.2 26.4-1.8 30JAN2008 25.1-0.1 24.7-1.3 24.9-1.7 26.5-1.7 06FEB2008 25.9 0.3 24.8-1.4 24.6-2.1 26.4-1.8 13FEB2008 25.9-0.1 24.7-1.7 24.5-2.2 26.4-1.7 20FEB2008 26.7 0.6 25.1-1.4 24.9-2.0 26.4-1.7 27FEB2008 27.2 0.9 25.8-0.9 25.3-1.6 26.3-1.8 05MAR2008 27.3 1.0 26.3-0.6 25.7-1.3 26.6-1.5 12MAR2008 27.2 0.7 26.5-0.5 26.0-1.1 26.7-1.4 19MAR2008 27.3 0.9 26.7-0.5 26.2-1.1 26.8-1.4
  14. I mentioned this in the winter thread, but there is a theory in long-range forecasting that North Pacific (Bering Sea) patterns will show up in the US in 17-21 days. The big storm by Kamchatka over 12/28 is now supported by the SOI thing I use to pass over the SW - somewhere - in about 10 days given the recent big crash in the SOI. The 12/28 storm supported 1/14-1/18 for a storm passage, and now it looks like 1/17 or so using the SOI rule. Over the past few weeks the eastern Nino zones have really been getting their asses kicked by warming even as the western zones remain quite cold. Nino 3 and Nino 1.2 are already close to not being in "La Nina territory".
  15. I really can't see Northern New England ending up as the only cold spot in the US as you have it for January. Utah is the place that has been consistently cold this winter and you had it solidly warmer than average this month. It really doesn't look that warm out there in the long range, you'll keep seeing inversions with cold lows even if there is high pressure and little moisture. The -NAO doesn't really favor cold in northern New England in January, so your idea never really made any sense to me. By the time we get to March, it's actually a warm signal for a lot of the Northeast, and even by January it's kind of Neutral. It favors storms more than cold really. You've got a lot of places up there in Northern New England 10+ above normal so far this month. My guess is they'll cool off later in the month with more normal warmth and snow, and still finish 3-8 above normal in some spots. It's also going to be real hard to get big systems for Northeast snow until the SOI dies off, the +20 ish readings of late will keep the subtropical jet weak and way south of where it would be in an average year. You were looking in the winter thread when I posted that a -NAO never follows a sufficiently high SOI in December, so you seem on board with that. You missed the WPO & NAO combination for December, which is why you couldn't see the cold in the West from what I can see. It's not like the PNA favored cold in Utah, it doesn't do that. Your forecast this year was actually pretty strange, its pretty rare to have Missouri as the hottest place in the US in a winter. If you think the South will be warm, the warmest areas in a La Nina will almost be the Southeast coast, south Texas, or the southern areas of the Southwest.