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raindancewx

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About raindancewx

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    https://www.indiegogo.com/projects/raindance-weather/x/12141322#/

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    Albuquerque

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  1. raindancewx

    Weak El Nino 2018-2019

    Here are my analogs for Detroit, for 12/1-12/12, since you seem to live there, for average highs, from October, go back in the earlier in the thread if you want to see 1953 - 49.2 1976 - 28.5 1986 - 36.8 1994 - 43.5 1994 - 43.5 2006 - 37.8 Average - 39.8 2018 - 38.3 I'll be here waiting for yours.
  2. raindancewx

    Weak El Nino 2018-2019

    The North is warm so far, even against 1981-2010. Here is the start of the warm up. We'll see what happens by the end of the month. You seem to be in Detroit. The current forecast for the next four days has something like +6F against 1981-2010. That should wipe out the -0.5F month to date pretty easily.
  3. raindancewx

    Weak El Nino 2018-2019

    The El Nino strength graph isn't up yet, but visually, the model has gone to a much weaker El Nino in Spring 2019. I'm tentatively looking at Springs 1958, 1970, 1973, 1987, 2005, 2007, 2007 for 2019 analogs, but I'm sure I'll change my mind by Feb 10. The SOI needs to connect to the pattern for a canonical El Nino Spring look to arrive. I find that the West tends to have very cold periods after the Gulf of Mexico is hit by a Major Hurricane in the following Spring. We certainly had a very cold late Feb / early Mar last year while the East roasted for a few weeks after a major hurricane hit the Gulf of Mexico. Locally, there is a strong tendency for March to be very wet in an El Nino if the difference in Sept & Oct precipitation is large, and it was this year. A big +NAO in Oct also tends to support a cold March in the SW.
  4. raindancewx

    Weak El Nino 2018-2019

    Don't shoot the messenger but the JAMSTEC has completely flipped and joined the CFS with the super hot US winter. I may ask one of the Jamstec scientists on Twitter why their model is so volatile, they seem pretty nice and tend to respond to questions. The Northern Plains did show up as warm in nearly every independent method I could come up with, not just ENSO, so I think that makes sense, and really, that is the one area, along with NM/TX that didn't flip from last month. I think I'm actually pretty on board with the precip map below, this pattern doesn't seem particularly wet nationally unless the SOI starts to crash to juice up the subtropical jet. The +20 reading for yesterday isn't going to help with that. The other images are not working for me on their site right now, if someone else wants to give it a go. http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/e/seasonal/outlook.html The December run last year actually did fairly well, I'd give it a C+. Was definitely better than the Nov 2017 run for what its worth. The precip map was actually quite excellent, one of the best I've seen from a seasonal model - solid A for me.
  5. raindancewx

    Weak El Nino 2018-2019

    The QBO monthly data did go positive in November, if anyone hasn't seen it yet. Probably over +10 by January or February. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data I'm expecting the El Nino to peak around 27.7C for DJF in Nino 3.4. I would call that +1.2C (1951-2010 average is 26.5C) but NOAA would call 27.7C +1.1 probably, and it may only last for a period or two at that level. Similar SST peaks (assuming it does hit 27.7C or so in DJF) include these years (w/in 0.2C): DJF 3.4 3.4p ONI 1965 27.73 25.69 1.40 1968 27.54 25.77 1.10 1986 27.76 26.04 1.20 1994 27.64 26.74 1.00 2002 27.50 26.43 0.90 NOAA/CPC uses rolling 30-year means, so 2002 is basically equal to 1968, but the ONI is 0.2C lower. Oct/Nov were both at 27.6C for reference. 1965-66 is a low-solar year, with a similar SST peak in Nino 3.4 to what I expect, and followed a similar strength La Nina in the prior winter to 2017-18 (25.72C in 2017-18, 25.69C in 1964-65). Also near the AMO flip from + to -, and also in a year following a major hurricane hitting the Gulf of Mexico (Betsy). You also had a neutral SOI in December 1965. Last I looked on the ECMWF, the SOI looks positive for the next five days, maybe not everyday but certainly overall, and that'll be over half the month already. Using the Dec 1-12 SOI for Dec, you get some crazy matches for Oct-Nov-Dec. It's going to be pretty hard for the SOI to finish much below 0 in Dec even if a big crash comes later in the month. Jamstec should be out this week.
  6. raindancewx

    Weak El Nino 2018-2019

    CPC has interesting analogs for the 6-10 and 8-14 periods (12/11 outlooks). They give 80% chance for warmth in the Northern Plains for the 6-10, which is very high for them. 6-10. 19941220 20061227 20061212 20061222 20051225 20030104 19871207 19981212 19581227 20031222 8-14. 19751230 19581229 19961214 20070108 19991207 20031226 19591227 20091221 19781229 19941208 I looked the other day, and locally, 1969 is now the top match for both highs by month (Jul-Nov) and precipitation by month (Jul-Nov) locally - will be interesting to see if that shows up as a good year in Jan-Mar locally and nationally given that it had a positive SOI in December, as this year does currently. I'm watching the years that are El Nino winters following Gulf Coast major hurricane hits - it isn't common, 1941, 1957, 1965, 1969, 2004. The subsurface US temp maps for January, using Oct/Nov and my estimates for Dec are very sensitive to whether the subsurface weakens or not, and how much it weakens in December, unlike prior months.
  7. raindancewx

    Mountain West Discussion

    My statistical regression for Albuquerque El Nino highs seems to be working - I developed it after the 2015-16 El Nino to figure out why some El Ninos are cold here and others are not. You input numbers and it spits out a Tmax for DJF that should be right, +/-1.8F for the winter. I try to mimic Tmax in Oct-Nov locally, with the background state, and then roll it forward to get the winter. That's the theory, basically many combinations are close matches to the background initial conditions, but only one or a few will match the background state and the local weather. I can't imagine it will continue this well, but the regression was based on El Ninos for 1931-2017 and then I tested it on the earlier El Ninos in 1892-1930, and it still worked in non-volcanic years. So far, 1976, 1986, 1986, 2009 as a blend has been nearly perfect for highs here for months now. Green numbers are what I expect for ONI (DJF SST in Nino 3.4), Sun is Jul-Jun annualized sunspots, ONIp is ONI but for last year (previous). The green numbers under the Oct, Nov, Dec 1-10 highs are actual numbers v. the regression blend. Average high here is 71.3F in Oct, 57.4F for November, and 47.8F for December for 1931-2017. Other blends can be made, some warmer, some colder, but for whatever reason, this one works best.
  8. raindancewx

    Weak El Nino 2018-2019

    If anyone is curious, I found this recently - it shows what Joe D'aleo's Pioneer model had for Nov-Apr, probably from the October update. I think the issue with models like his that use 20+ variables is you are almost guaranteed to get an analog mean from 20, 30, 40 years ago, which will tend to be somewhat cold biased. He liked 1963, that is part of why Nov was so warm on the map, it was a very warm Fall, opposite this year, when it was quite cold.
  9. raindancewx

    Has the AMO Flipped Phases?

    November AMO value was the lowest since 1996 in November: -0.121 Really sticks out in the Northern Hemisphere...basically the only cold blotch of waters.
  10. raindancewx

    Weak El Nino 2018-2019

    This is what I have for the SOI in December for 2018 so far, and then past years (that I consider El Nino) with a +SOI in December. Dec 2018 (1-10): +5.14 so far https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/ SOI Dec 1945 5.4 1969 2.3 1965 0.3 1968 0.3 It's very interesting to me seeing these 1960s El Ninos show up in a variety of ways, but the AMO in November did come in at the lowest level since the mid-1990s, so we do seem to be really flirting with the cold AMO on and off again now. The 1968 and 1965 El Ninos both followed La Ninas of similar strength (~25.7C DJF) to this event too. Long-term, big +SOI Decembers are correlated to warm February in the East. I did not forecast that, since almost no El Ninos have a +SOI in December, but it is definitely possible at this point if we finish with a +SOI, maybe very positive. It seems like it will trend less positive though. Back to 1930, a record -SOI in Dec would be -30, and 80% of years are like +12 to -12, ish, so +5 x 10, and then -12 * 21 would still only bring it down to -6.5 or so for December - we'll see. The ECWMF is still insistent on pretty slow weakening for this event. It also did pretty well last year. If it somehow held at +1C for AMJ, that's like super El Nino-ish for that period. I'm assuming the peak is somewhat over 1C for one or two months, but the models may be thinking there is another two year event like 1986-87 and 1987-88 or 2014-15 and 2015-16.
  11. raindancewx

    Weak El Nino 2018-2019

    Here are the latest weeklies - Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 14NOV2018 22.2 0.6 25.8 0.8 27.4 0.7 29.5 0.9 21NOV2018 22.6 0.8 26.3 1.3 27.9 1.3 29.6 1.0 28NOV2018 22.5 0.5 26.3 1.2 27.8 1.2 29.6 1.1 05DEC2018 23.1 0.8 26.2 1.1 27.6 1.0 29.7 1.2 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for It is still fairly similar to 2006 on the weeklies. 2014 isn't bad either. 03DEC2014 22.3 0.0 25.8 0.7 27.4 0.8 29.4 0.9 06DEC2006 22.9 0.5 26.1 1.1 27.9 1.3 29.6 1.1 It does look like the subsurface is weakening, and the weeklies may be showing the waters below the eastern Pacific finally surfacing. In the 1979-2017 data set for 100W-180W, for the top 300m of the oceans, the tendency is for January to come in weaker than December, typically around 70% of Dec. I was on vacation over the weekend to do some stuff in the snow, I just looked at Philly and it does look around 5F warmer for the same days than a few days ago, so I think the MJO progression is starting to show up on the models now. BOMM has a full rotation into 6-7, I'd enjoy that immensely, but we'll have to see. Also...the SOI is still really positive in December. If we finish above +4 for the month, that has implications down the road, since it's never been that high in Dec in an El Nino since 1930 anyway.
  12. It feels so strange to have dew-points in the 30s again after such a prolonged period here with dew-points around 0-10. Just a trace so far in the city, but the best shot for us was always Friday anyway.
  13. raindancewx

    Mountain West Discussion

    If the SOI stays positive in December like it has been, I could see the NW doing well for snowfall in February or March, which would be unusual in an El Nino. Big question if it will stay positive though. It warmed up here today, but even so, my highs are running around 6F below the 1931-2017 mean for 12/1-12/6. I find that if a cold or warm spell lasts from 12/1-12/8 in an El Nino, it tends to hold up much stronger than in the other ENSO patterns through December, the r-squared is 2-3x stronger. This is a long way of saying, it still looks cold to me here for December, at least for the highs. December is always tricky here, because long-term, at least for 1931-2017, the highs are actually down, not up. Lows are up of course. Also, if we verify with highs around 50F for 12/7 to 12/8 highs, we're running basically identical to 2006 here for highs, at around 46.5F (-4.5F).
  14. raindancewx

    Weak El Nino 2018-2019

    Why are you people so emotionally invested in this? Don't you have something better to do with your time like a functional adult would? The joke about this is all you seem to love what Ray put out, but he used two of the same analogs I did, 1953 and 1976, just a month later, and he said in October that he read my outlook and disagreed with it, which is fine. But it's like....you're arguing over nonsense given that he liked 40% of the years I used in my forecast - 1953, 1976, 1986, 1994, 1994, 2006. For 12/1-12/6 Boston is 39.8F in 2018 for the average temperature. In my years, Boston is 41.3F. I don't get all the hate, I'm doing well so far. See for yourselves. Ray had 1953, 1976, 1977 which is also close, 37.3F since he used similar years. It's not as close as mine so far, but its not bad, it's 2.5F too cold for him so far, 1.5F too warm for me so far. 1931-12-06 37.2 0 1932-12-06 51.1 0 1933-12-06 34.2 0 1934-12-06 41.8 0 1935-12-06 25.2 0 1936-12-06 33.2 0 1937-12-06 33.0 0 1938-12-06 36.5 0 1939-12-06 43.6 0 1940-12-06 24.5 0 1941-12-06 43.0 0 1942-12-06 34.3 0 1943-12-06 38.3 0 1944-12-06 30.7 0 1945-12-06 32.3 0 1946-12-06 34.2 0 1947-12-06 34.4 0 1948-12-06 43.7 0 1949-12-06 33.6 0 1950-12-06 44.0 0 1951-12-06 46.5 0 1952-12-06 35.4 0 1953-12-06 45.2 0 1954-12-06 27.3 0 1955-12-06 35.6 0 1956-12-06 34.8 0 1957-12-06 34.7 0 1958-12-06 32.4 0 1959-12-06 42.7 0 1960-12-06 38.5 0 1961-12-06 39.7 0 1962-12-06 44.9 0 1963-12-06 32.1 0 1964-12-06 29.0 0 1965-12-06 39.3 0 1966-12-06 31.4 0 1967-12-06 33.3 0 1968-12-06 43.2 0 1969-12-06 31.7 0 1970-12-06 39.1 0 1971-12-06 30.1 0 1972-12-06 37.8 0 1973-12-06 44.0 0 1974-12-06 36.5 0 1975-12-06 39.8 0 1976-12-06 25.3 0 1977-12-06 41.4 0 1978-12-06 39.5 0 1979-12-06 38.3 0 1980-12-06 36.4 0 1981-12-06 38.5 0 1982-12-06 55.2 0 1983-12-06 36.5 0 1984-12-06 39.2 0 1985-12-06 35.0 0 1986-12-06 38.4 0 1987-12-06 37.8 0 1988-12-06 36.7 0 1989-12-06 23.5 0 1990-12-06 41.8 0 1991-12-06 36.8 0 1992-12-06 36.8 0 1993-12-06 40.3 0 1994-12-06 48.3 0 1995-12-06 38.1 0 1996-12-06 41.3 0 1997-12-06 38.7 0 1998-12-06 51.4 0 1999-12-06 43.7 0 2000-12-06 31.1 0 2001-12-06 54.1 0 2002-12-06 27.8 0 2003-12-06 28.8 0 2004-12-06 39.8 0 2005-12-06 34.3 0 2006-12-06 42.6 0 2007-12-06 27.4 0 2008-12-06 41.4 0 2009-12-06 43.9 0 2010-12-06 38.8 0 2011-12-06 46.3 0 2012-12-06 41.8 0 2013-12-06 42.4 0 2014-12-06 40.8 0 2015-12-06 44.4 0 2016-12-06 40.8 0 2017-12-06 42.6 0 For what its worth, some folks are saying +15. Go read my forecast if you want to troll me. It's in this thread. I like how no one had any issues with 1953 being similar like I said it would be in November. No smart ass comments on that from the dumb ass brigade? The map below from Michael Ventrice is essentially a replication of the Euro weeklies that I see everyone hugging so tightly when its forecasting cold. Do you have anything to add to this or are you all just going to keep attacking me until we hit the end of the month and the NE ends up being warm in December like I've been saying since October? I know its cooled somewhat, but at the end of 12/6 Boston and much of the NE are still near to above normal, and the warm up is still coming, whether the trolls approve of it or not. In any case, our "Modoki" El Nino looked pretty similar to my analogs for Sept-Nov, with its consistent temperature gradient from East-West. It isn't really shocking that a warm up is coming, given the convection that has flared up by India and the impending surfacing of huge warmth in Nino 1.2
  15. raindancewx

    Weak El Nino 2018-2019

    You keep saying I will be wrong. What if I'm right? Boston is at 0.1" officially. Doesn't look wrong to me. Boston has never had more than 60 inches in a low-solar El Nino back to 1892. I documented that extensively, and most of those years, all but two, 14/16, are under 45". 1977, 2002, 2014, all had high solar. 1995 was a La Nina with low solar. It isn't the right pattern for Boston to get heavy snow. I've mentioned before the SOI in Sept-Nov is a good indicator for December. Looks good to me! SOI Sept Oct Nov 1953 -13.0 -0.3 -2.7 2018 -8.5 2.6 -0.9 Does reality matter to you or not? I'll be waiting for your answer at the end of the month when the NE comes in warm. You still haven't answered whether you think its even possible for the NE to be warm in December in an El Nino, even though almost all of the recent ones are. Dirty little secret? The Cold El Ninos were already cold in the NE by this point. I know you don't care about reality, so this won't matter to you, but here is what the cold El Ninos look like in the NE by this point in Dec - Depending on the area, I think just about the whole NE is +1 to +5, given what is coming later in the month, against 1951-2010 highs.
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