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raindancewx

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  1. Mountain West Discussion

    Euro is pretty bullish on some big precip totals for the drought stricken areas of Eastern NM, OK, and the Amarillo vicinity.
  2. El Nino 2018-19

    I tried to convince you in February, that SOI drop to -7.7 should never happen in a healthy La Nina. It wasn't necessarily an indicator of an El Nino yet, but you did have a similar massive drop in March 1997 when the system began transitioning away from the near-Nina conditions to the big El Nino. I have certain organic indicators for ENSO, since the SW is most sensitive to it, and they were all indicating fairly rapid collapse in Feb/Mar. I do wonder when the next East-based El Nino will come - its been ages now.
  3. We were 40F or so on Friday afternoon, I'd call it a Blue Norther level cold front. Wind was fierce and unrelenting. Midnight high of 54F though.
  4. Mountain West Discussion

    It's not that surprising - we had a high of 79F with clouds, but still have dew points under 0F. It's a recurrence of the bs from December & January. All of the techniques I can think of maintain an enhanced chance of a huge June for precipitation, with above average more likely than normal. There are already hints at Gulf/Subtropical moisture starting to return to NM in the coming days/weeks.
  5. Weak La Nina Winter

    No more La Nina in 3.4 as of this week. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 14FEB2018 25.5-0.6 25.3-1.1 25.8-1.0 27.7-0.4 21FEB2018 26.2 0.0 25.7-0.9 25.8-1.1 27.9-0.2 28FEB2018 26.5 0.2 26.1-0.6 26.1-0.8 27.9-0.2 07MAR2018 26.0-0.4 26.0-0.9 26.3-0.7 28.0-0.1 14MAR2018 25.8-0.7 26.3-0.7 26.5-0.7 28.1-0.1 21MAR2018 25.2-1.2 26.5-0.7 26.5-0.8 28.2 0.0 28MAR2018 25.5-0.6 26.7-0.6 26.7-0.7 28.2-0.1 04APR2018 24.7-1.1 27.1-0.3 27.1-0.5 28.3-0.1 11APR2018 24.3-1.3 27.2-0.3 27.3-0.4 28.5 0.0
  6. Mountain West Discussion

    Been enjoying my MJO phase two this weekend, lows in the 30s and highs under 70ish are wonderful this time of this year. I've been playing with my Summer analogs a bit, and one idea that popped out is an early appearance of the heat (90s) but relatively few of them. A hot May, early June, then monsoon comes on hard. Friday was nuts here, 54F at midnight, but only 40F at 3 pm. High wind and dust everywhere all day. The subsurface tropical waters in the Pacific have warmed up a lot, and have begun spreading East and toward the surface. We're going to see some kind of El Nino try to come on in July I think. SOI is indicative of the collapse I'd say, daily values of +31 to -17 this month to date.
  7. El Nino 2018-19

    I'll go on record and say that I think it will be a Modoki El Nino. Nino 1.2 is still pretty cold. I was looking at years that went from a "La Nina look" by cold water location/structure, like last winter to an El Nino Modoki, its an interesting list of years. Last year, you had an earlier transition from La Nina to near-El Nino, and it was a Modoki La Nina initially. So you get different analogs. The Eastern Atlantic & solar conditions need to be factored in for the coming patterns, both are contributing less energy to the system than in a while. Without looking at the maps, I think 1926, 1951, 1963, 1968, 1976, 1986, 1997, 2006, 2009, 2014 all have some similarities. The El Ninos following an El Nino are probably the worst matches conceptually: 1940, 1941, 1958, 1977, 1987, 2015. Big El Ninos probably not a good match either: 1930, 1940, 1941, 1957, 1965, 1972, 1982, 1991, 1997, 2015. Tentatively like 1951 (x2), 1963, 1968 (x2), 1976 (x2), 1986 (x2), 1997, 2006 (x2), 2009 (x2), 2014. On the JAMSTEC classification, 1968-69 and 2009-10 are the most extreme El Nino Modoki events, so have to see if that happens.
  8. Weak La Nina Winter

    I'm actually more interested in what the PDO does for the time being, in the Summer that's the stronger precip signal v. ENSO here, and Summer is the wet season, with 50-70% of annual rain falling in Jun-Sep here most years. Ideal monsoon tends to occur with low-solar activity, high PDO values, and little precipitation in the Nov-Apr prior to Summer. Dry Summers get a little nuts, we had sub-0F dewpoints a few days last year with air temperatures during the day near 100, so some areas were falling into the 40s at night. Even here, that's crazy.
  9. Weak La Nina Winter

    Euro says El Nino starts in July, before it had it in September. Jamstec has trended to warm neutral / weak El Nino conditions for Summer from flat Neutral.
  10. Weak La Nina Winter

    http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest March 2018 had the first negative monthly PDO value (JISAO/Mantua) since December 2013. Been a while!
  11. Weak La Nina Winter

    Time to play Taps soon? Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 07FEB2018 24.9-0.7 24.9-1.3 25.8-0.9 27.8-0.3 14FEB2018 25.5-0.6 25.3-1.1 25.8-1.0 27.7-0.4 21FEB2018 26.2 0.0 25.7-0.9 25.8-1.1 27.9-0.2 28FEB2018 26.5 0.2 26.1-0.6 26.1-0.8 27.9-0.2 07MAR2018 26.0-0.4 26.0-0.9 26.3-0.7 28.0-0.1 14MAR2018 25.8-0.7 26.3-0.7 26.5-0.7 28.1-0.1 21MAR2018 25.2-1.2 26.5-0.7 26.5-0.8 28.2 0.0 28MAR2018 25.5-0.6 26.7-0.6 26.7-0.7 28.2-0.1 04APR2018 24.7-1.1 27.1-0.3 27.1-0.5 28.3-0.1
  12. Mountain West Discussion

    Yeah. Its a bit of a shame, since the -NAO is usually cold/wet for us if it comes in Jan-Apr, but not in La Nina. My low was 63F this morning, I think that's the earliest date for a 60+ low on record here. Its possible the morning low isn't the real low, the dew point is down to -7, so with darkness we should see the heat die off. I'm looking forward to seeing if the storm coming this week dives further south than forecast than anticipated, with the activity in the tropical east pacific and the big MJO wave.
  13. Mountain West Discussion

    For whatever reason it seems like March/April and Dec/Jan always seem to flip in the West for temps/precip. Suspect this will end up being a pretty good month for much of the West, save TX/NM/AZ in terms of precip. Its interesting looking at how hot/dry TX got in March with the complete lack of precipitation for five months in the panhandle. Until proven otherwise, will continue the ridge is bossiest in that zone. The heat did have trouble piercing the front range / central mountains of NM though, so we ended up with a much colder March year/year. The February SOI correlation to dryness in the NW in March beat the La Nina pretty easily - will have to remember that for future years. I had been toying with 3/2005 as an analog to March, and it ended up OK in the NE, that blotch of cold by VA with a warmer New England relatively is in a lot of big negative SOI February years.
  14. Weak La Nina Winter

    March 29 2006 is on the right. If an El Nino is to develop in July as the Canadian says, it makes some sense that the subsurface is "ahead" of 2006 in trending to El Nino.
  15. Weak La Nina Winter

    Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ 2010 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.4 -0.1 -0.6 -1.0 -1.4 -1.6 -1.7 -1.7 -1.6 2011 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 -1.1 -1.1 -1.0 2012 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.2 2013 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 2014 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 2015 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.6 2016 2.5 2.2 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.3 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6 2017 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -0.9 -1.0 2018 -0.9 -0.8 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt YR MON TOTAL ClimAdjust ANOM 2017 7 27.54 27.26 0.28 2017 8 26.70 26.91 -0.21 2017 9 26.29 26.80 -0.51 2017 10 26.15 26.75 -0.60 2017 11 25.74 26.75 -1.01 2017 12 25.62 26.65 -1.04 2018 1 25.58 26.45 -0.88 2018 2 25.98 26.66 -0.68 2018 3 26.44 27.21 -0.77 March came in at 25.15C in Nino 1.2, coldest since 2005. Nino 3.4 was coldest in March since 2011. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/nina34.data https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/nina1.data
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