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  1. The 3 km-NAM is honestly awesome at short range - it had essentially no rain/snow for the city and that seems to be verifying other than 20 minutes of trace-level rain. Euro and GFS both had much more, with some snow. Will be impressed if we end up with even 0.01" from this event in the city. On to the next storm I suppose. The non-Nino winters here after major hurricanes hitting TX lean heavily toward dry January, and we're ~2/3 through with 0.03". Not sure why the local NWS kept the weather advisory for the city for this event, it was 52F at 10 pm when they renewed it. My rule is <50F on a warm day by 10 pm if it is to convert to snow over night.
  2. Mountain West Discussion

    If we get 0.02" here from this storm, it becomes our wettest month, at 0.05" or more, since September. Weatherbell apparently thinks February will be a blend of 1996 & 2011, via the daily update the other day. Feb 1996 was insanely warm here, and Feb 2011 had our second coldest day in 125+ years of records, with a low of -7F and a high of +9F. It may not be too crazy, some of the long-term looks on the models favor a "mother of all cold shots" look for the middle of the US in early February....but it is fantasy range.
  3. El Nino

    I don't know how to make the maps you made, but the El Ninos that follow an El Nino in prior years often don't behave like canonical El Ninos. Look at the temperature map of 1930-31 v. 2015-16 for the US, or precip. It followed 1929-30, which was a weak Nino like 2014-15 and had a similar temp profile to 2015-16. Look at 1941-42, 1958-59, 1969-70, 1977-78, 1987-88, 1940-41, and I think you'd see similarly weird El Ninos. The second year ENSO events seem favored for being slightly less canonical overall, it tends to be average/warm in the SW in second-year El Ninos, it tends to be drier than the normal Nina signal in the NW in second year La Ninas, etc.
  4. Weak La Nina Winter

    Using the 1950-2000 base period from the extended data set NOAA has for Nino 3.4/Nino 1.2, I think NDJ ends up around -0.80C in Nino 3.4, Nino 1.2 around -1.10C. Last year, against that base period was -0.49C in 3.4, and +0.09C in NDJ, and both warmed a lot in DJF. I'm hoping we get some last second warming in both - I find hand-blending Nino 1.2, Nino 3.4, for NDJ, with annualized solar analogs produces around a 0.65-r-squared relationship with Spring precipitation in my area. Super dry Springs tend to be very cold in Nino 1.2, Nino 3.4, with low solar activity. The relationship is based on 1987-2016, the further back you go the harder it gets to recreate years. The blend I'm using (-0.8C, -1.1C, 18 sunspots July-Jun) implies 0.96" precipitation here for March-May, which is close to 40% below normal. My hunch at this point is Nino 3 stays in La Nina conditions the longest, with the event rotting away on both sides pretty rapidly in March/April.
  5. Mountain West Discussion

    Local weather service has 6-10" for the Northern Mountains of NM, although I'd expect locally more than that. This system seems like it could have pretty good wrap around for the mountains. Not expecting much in the city. We usually get 30-120 minutes of rain, or rain to snow with these strong Pacific cold fronts in the city if we get anything. It should be near 60F tomorrow during the day anyway, so the snow will be fighting a fairly warm ground. Was doing some math earlier - out of all possible streaks where the same month is drier than average for 10 years in a row, ala March 2008-2017 in Albuquerque, the odds of that happening are 1%, or 1 month in 100 months (8.33 years) should be the 10th year in a row that the same month is dry for that long. This is based on the real frequency of dry-streaks in the 1932-2017 airport era of data for Albuquerque. That said, the same month being dry 11-years in a row (2008-2018) is much rarer - 0.44%, or one month in 19 years. Since we had an 11-year dry streak in May in 1996-2006, I lean towards this being the "March Year" for the city and southern regions of the SW that has been missing for the last decade. The 7-year dry June streak is in some trouble, as our wettest Junes come after our driest November-January periods here, and we're currently at a staggering 0.03" for Nov-Jan. Odds of neither streak ending, as best I can tell are 1 in 9,239 - up by over five fold from last year, when the June streak nearly ended (0.48", average is 0.61"), and probably would have ended had one thunderstorm moved west by one mile. The 96-day dry streak here was roughly a 1/7,000 event when it broke, based on all 96-day periods through the day it ended, so I finally, finally have some confidence that one of these months will be wet, since 1 in 9,239 is even less common than 1/7000
  6. Weak La Nina Winter

    Yep. The winter isn't over yet either, but for an ancient year, its not terrible. I only gave it 1/10th weight anyway. The main similarity in that year to this year is it has the warm anomalies in the Atlantic north of the cold anomalies in the Atlantic, which has some relationship to precipitation in the West.
  7. The GFS, Euro, 3-km NAM show a fairly healthy line of showers associated with a Pacific cold front moving through NM, bringing rain and then maybe snow even to valley locations. Going to have to be one incredible cold front if we go from 55-60F on Saturday to snow by Saturday Night, although it does happen. GFS thinks 0.10-0.20", Euro and 3-km NAM think 0.05" or so. I'd expect 0.05"-0.10" precipitation, with up to the final third of it as snow...0.1"-0.5" in the city?
  8. Mountain West Discussion

    I'm a fan of the 3-km NAM, but it isn't in range yet. The GFS had 0.10" to 0.15" for the city, would be the biggest precipitation event here since September if it verified. Lows have been colder than forecast for days now, so if this system has moisture, would expect the drier / colder than initialized air to turn us from rain to snow at the end of the event. But would need 0.10" or more to happen otherwise its very light rain (0.05") to jack. It took a while with the all-time heat in November, but we're ahead of the pace from last year for frosts and very cold nights (<20F). Oct 2016 - May 2017 had only three nights <20F, already at five through 1/18/18. Oct 2016-May 2017 had seven frosts through 11/30, but only 38 through 1/18/18. We had only two frosts through Nov 2017, but are at 41 through 1/18. So only 31 frosts from 12/1 to 1/18 last year, but 39 frosts from 12/1 to 1/18 this year. I had forecast 92 frosts (<=32F lows) for Oct 2017 to May 2018. I'm probably a bit high, but it looked terrible on Nov 30, not so bad now, particularly if it stays this dry.
  9. Weak La Nina Winter

    1932-33 had similar dryness nationally to this winter, although it was much colder in the West (it was a volcanic-cold neutral). I'm not surprised that 90% of the lower-48 is drier than normal so far. We're actually drier than 1932-33 so far, which is not good as that was one of the winters that triggered the Dust Bowl. Still expecting some turn around in the West toward wetter conditions over the second half of winter. California is actually 5"+ below normal in places so far (3mm/day * 45 days).
  10. ^^ A lot of time they will ignore the lowest low or highest high if it only lasts for five minutes. Don't know if it is rounding, an error, or some kind of calibration.
  11. MJO is now coherently just barely in phase four, many models have it in phase five in a week or less. Snap to a much warmer pattern for the US east of the Rockies should be coming. Will be interesting to see how much of this gets wiped out - Areas of North Dakota were +2 to +4 in December, so a wipe out of the (relatively) minor cold anomalies in January there would put them near normal, not cold for winter. Suspect the blue and purple areas on the map have a colder than normal month, I think the green areas end up near average though. Those reds in the West should trend down too. Would expect most areas to be +8 to -8 by the end of the month instead of +12 to -12. Even here, largely without precipitation, it looks much colder than December now. West Texas is fairly cold in phase five, so don't think the cold is particularly threatened in Texas.
  12. Weak La Nina Winter

    December conditions in Nino 3.4, Nino 3, Nino 1.2 were a good match for a blend of 1967, 2005, 2005, 2007. If you blend those years, it isn't a terrible match nationally for December (Nino 1.2, 3.4, 4 is better for national conditions anyway), and you have a lot of pretty warm waters by the US. Winter 1967-68 was cooler than normal in 3.4, but very cold in Nino 1.2, so it had a very positive Modoki value, which is unusual in years when Nino 3.4 is cold. The 2017-18 imbalance between 3.4 and 1.2 isn't as great as that year, and diminishing somewhat but its useful for blending. I like that blend because something about it is similar in the Atlantic too, you had a major hurricane hit Texas in 1967, the big hurricane season in 2005, and then 2007 had similar sea-ice in Summer to this year. When Beulah hit in 1967, parts of TX had 27 inches of rain (half of Harvey in half the time), and I think super heavy rains in TX in the Summer have some kind of effect on the strength of the subtropical ridge for a long time. This is on ERSST V.5 - on different data sets 1967 (x5), 1975 (x1), 2005 (x1), 2007 (x3) works pretty well too. Dec Nino 3.4 Nino 3 Nino 1.2 1967 25.95 23.99 20.97 2005 25.68 24.00 21.89 2007 25.01 23.57 21.15 2005 25.68 24.00 21.89 Mean 25.58 23.89 21.48 2017 25.62 24.02 21.44 I've been looking hard at Spring 1951 too - the dryness (0.04" in Oct-Dec 2017 here, 0.01" in Oct-Dec 1950) with a very hot Nov+Dec here is similar to 1950. If you want to see a batsh-t crazy pattern, look at March 1951.
  13. Weak La Nina Winter

    We'll see if it lasts, but looks like some serious Nina-decay to me. The PDO & Nino 1.2 seem linked at a lag, so its interesting to see us reverting to a positive PDO look too with the Nino 1.2 cold falling apart.
  14. I'll repeat my earlier complaint - its amazing that Monterrey, Brownsville, Houston, New Orleans, Savannah, Charleston, San Antonio and other cites have had snow this winter while it has barely rained here since September. The good news is...it is very cold today. So that's nice. I will say: One of my analogs, 1943, had multiple snow events into the deep South and TX, like down to the Gulf Coast, so that is actually verifying pretty well. You had a super warm Atlantic, neutral PDO, low solar activity, and an east-based "cold Neutral" look to ENSO that year. 1943 is like a colder version of 2008 nationally. Even the warm patch of waters north of the cold Nino 3/1.2 existed in 1943-44.
  15. Weak La Nina Winter

    Still looking east-central now. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 06DEC2017 20.8-1.6 24.1-1.0 25.7-0.8 28.2-0.3 13DEC2017 21.3-1.3 24.0-1.1 25.8-0.8 28.1-0.3 20DEC2017 21.6-1.4 23.8-1.4 25.6-1.0 28.1-0.3 27DEC2017 22.1-1.3 24.4-0.9 26.0-0.6 28.2-0.2 03JAN2018 22.9-0.8 24.0-1.4 25.8-0.8 28.3-0.1 10JAN2018 23.3-0.9 24.3-1.3 25.6-0.9 28.2-0.1