raindancewx

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  1. The Euro seems to be on board with another good storm in the time frame you'd expect with the big SOI crash. It's crazy to me that the SOI is going to finish October so far under +8 when the La Nina is so healthy looking on the SST maps.
  2. My thing with La Ninas is they aren't really Pacific driven for most of the US, outside the NW. It's much easier to figure out what will happen in a La Nina by focusing on the Atlantic. That's part of why I'm so anti-2010 as an analog. That was a very active hurricane season without any landfalling Gulf Coast hurricanes, and without anything like the late activity this year has had. To me, the pattern has three main components. 1) You have transient, but extremely powerful cold dumps into the Southwest that occur around major changes in arctic pressure patterns, likely triggered by big ENSO/MJO changes. These have differed in how they've been delivered, but the cold snaps actually have been recurring every 45 days or so for months already, despite the persistent heat. Early June, Late July, Early Sept, Late Oct all featured these cold shots in NM. 2) You have major cold dumps into the Northwest and Northern Plains that don't reach the SW or East at all. These cold dumps will likely shift West if/when the SE ridge expands in power as the La Nina peaks, and then snap back east in Spring. My analogs had a cold Spring in the east after a pretty mild winter. 3) You also have periods of intense Western heat corresponding with cold/warmth duking it out pretty evenly in the East with Arctic/NAO help fighting the Pacific. This 10/1-10/10 pattern is essentially the same pattern the CFS sees for November (it's essentially Phase 4 MJO for Nov, v. Phase 5 Oct). Broadly speaking, the big dumps of cold into the SW have occurred shortly after a period of La Nina weakening or during a period of slower strengthening. The models have the La Nina weakening a lot starting Dec/Jan...part of why I don't buy a hot winter here. I lean toward a 45-35-20% split for the three patterns: with the middle image the 45, the near average east 35, and the 20 the SW cold dump. But the middle image should shift West as the La Nina strengthens and/or a SE ridge grows potent. Locally, the hottest, driest Summers in La Nina tend to see sporadic intense cold shots in mid-Fall develop and gradually become more consistent by the winter, so everything is pretty on target for what I've been expecting.
  3. This snow event for Boston is a good sign for the snow part of my winter outlook - NYC got jack, Boston got snow. I think that's going to repeat quite often in the winter. We'll see I guess. Definitely wasn't expecting record October snow in Boston and Albuquerque, that's one hell of a storm to do that, even with the huge SOI drop from the La Nina base state earlier in the month.
  4. The CFS has gone to my main winter analog for November: 2007. I would expect the CFS is too warm everywhere, but probably correct spatially for November 2020. Tropical Tidbits currently has these as the top SST matches globally: 1967, 1988, 2010, 2011, 2017. Weatherbell had a cold West look for November (1973, 1988, 2010, 2010) - will be curious to see if the warm West verifies of if they see something the models don't. I think we'll have some cold in the West in November but generally a warm month. The issue is 1973/1988/2010 are all way too cold/strong compared to where the current La Nina is, especially in Nino 4 where those years are near 27.0C, and this year is still near 28.0C.
  5. None of the lowest sea-ice cold ENSO years (2007, 2011, 2012, 2016) that are closest to the current observations look anything like the 'North' North Pacific Ridge composite since 1990 in winter. I can't imagine the lack of sea ice not having some kind of effect on placement of highs/lows in the North Pacific / Arctic zones. An example of this would be 2016, when DT had expected a big trough in the East/Midwest for winter based on the QBO/ENSO progression. More generally, the seven winters themselves are all very different. Say you lived in the Northeast and believed the North North Pacific Ridge composite was right. Would you go hot or cold for the Northeast? Average? The "look" of the seven post 1990 winters don't really match this October either. 1995 is closest for October of the bunch but it could easily be warmer in the Plains/East this November. 2008 is second closest for Oct-Nov, but it had the South very cold in October, and the Plains near average, but it's probably a good match for November. 2010, the La Nina most of you in the South want, is a god awful match for October in particular, with the entire middle of the US warm, and California cold. The 2013 October was extremely cold in the entire West, which is not like this year at all, even with the recent cold shot. The 2016 October is hot in the middle of the US too. 2017 is warm outside the NW. I'm not saying the composite or these years won't work somehow, but I am skeptical given how close we are to winter with almost all of these winters behaving differently. I consider 1995 a decent analog, and 2008 is probably fine for the eastern third of the US, but I'm not a fan of the other years at all.
  6. CPC is starting to fix the MJO site. It now has a rotation in November through phases 8-1 in early November on most models. That's somewhat similar to 2016. The CFS is starting to move the heat core in November away from Montana, and into the West/SW, which probably makes a lot of sense if we're going to spend some time in MJO phases 3-6 in November. I would think we could be back into phases 4-5-6 by Nov 20th? My forecast assumed 3-6 would be where the MJO would 'want to be' most of the cold season. Locally, Albuquerque has never finished Oct-May with above average snowfall in a year when November had a high of 61F or hotter. Long-term average is about 57.3F. So I am curious to see how warm it is in November, since we're ~45% of the way to our 1931-2019 snowfall average already. The most recent Weatherbell winter outlook uses 1973, 1988, 2010 (x2) as the November and winter blend - that's a cold West, hot East look - opposite what the CFS shows. Real curious to see what happens. It seems like a lot of the stronger La Ninas do go cold in the West in November, but the weaker ones don't typically. CPC has a pretty big cold dump into the West week two of November. The late October snow here, even though it has melted already probably cooled off the ground and made it harder to be super hot here in November. So I wouldn't be shocked if November came in a bit lower than the ~60F my analogs had here.
  7. Another one for me. Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 28 Oct 2020 1012.31 1011.65 -14.38 5.06 7.45 27 Oct 2020 1011.80 1009.45 -3.48 5.83 7.41 26 Oct 2020 1011.35 1008.90 -2.84 6.33 7.44 25 Oct 2020 1011.65 1009.80 -6.71 6.96 7.51 24 Oct 2020 1012.72 1009.65 1.16 7.74 7.60 23 Oct 2020 1013.92 1009.60 9.22 8.18 7.65
  8. Quick update on some ideas for the winter after checking the stats here: - All years from 1931-2019 with measurable snow in Albuquerque in October (10/10) saw measurable snow in at least five months of the eight month Oct-May cold season. This is compared to only 24 out of 79 years when it doesn't snow in October. The odds of six months of measurable snow are also much higher: 3 out of 10 in years with snow in October, and 4 out of 79 without snow in October. These are both highly statistically significant differences. The city has only seen measurable snow from October-May from 1931-32 to 2019-20. - March also saw snow 10/10 times following measurable snow in October, but only 48 of 79 Marches did without snow in October. So I'm expecting snow in at least four more months of snow here in the valleys of the Southwest. That means the mountains should get hit pretty hard. The question is which four? January/February actually see somewhat lower frequency of accumulating snow than usual after it snows in October. So I lean toward November, December, March, and then one-two months of January, February and April. Western snow pack is incredible in the high terrain at the moment. I'm sure it will let up for a bit, but if the mountains get enough snow, you can create cold air that prevents the valleys from warming up much. Years with unusual snow pack well to the south in the Plains/Rockies in October will often see some snow events pretty deep into the south later in winter. The official number still isn't in yet, but I think the airport had 3.9 inches of snow. The long-term average is 9.6" for October-May, but we only average 0.1" in October. It's pretty likely that the city will finish above average for snow - that's very rare in a La Nina, but the odds are close to a coin-flip for it now. When I did my winter forecast, total precipitation came out to 0.30" for October in Albuquerque with a high of 73.2F in the raw analog blend. We're likely to finish at 73-74, with 0.22", so it's on the right track. The blend of years implied a mostly dry pattern through May, but one month in Nov-April should see 2-3x normal precipitation (around one inch). There are hints on the GFS of storms entering southern California in the long-range too, which is consistent with November evolving to a colder pattern for December in the West if I did this right.
  9. I don't have a way to visualize it overall, but the Octobers that see unusually far South snowfall in the West and Plains are actually pretty good for one-two cold storms pretty deep into the SE, even in La Ninas. This is an example off the top of my head - but I'd still bet against a lot of snow for the coastal NE/SE outside New England.
  10. I would expect this pattern to repeat, but with the snow extent up to 100-200 miles further south, in early December and late January. The prior big cold storm in September brought snow down to Santa Fe, this one went down to Truth or Consequences. You could probably push a good storm and cold blast down to Chihuahua in the dead of winter in this setup.
  11. That list looks pretty legitimate to me - there were reports of 3-9" for the Eastern half of the city, but more like 6-13" for the Western half. I had 2-4, up to 8" locally. Storm came in much colder and drier than I thought - only ~0.22" / 3.9" at the airport, but probably ~0.35-0.55" in the less snow shadowed areas, at 17:1 to 25:1 ratios overall, with temperatures 17-23 overnight in the city.
  12. November on the CFS looks a lot like November 1954 if you want a cold ENSO year to match it to. Very hot in the West all Summer & Fall, and then cold in winter. It's the cold Western composite look, ala 2007 or 1988 that Griteater has. Here is a look at some snow totals for the storm down here. A lot of the mountain communities have already had 20-30% of their annual totals with this storm and the September storm. I don't see any reason to not expect a recurrence of these types of storms occasionally through next Spring. They seem to be tied to the NAO flipping phase via changing MJO forcing. The "extremely low snow" in the Southwest idea already looks pretty wrong. We only get ~0-5% of our snow through October in the sites I'm familiar with in NM. I think Albuquerque officially had 3.9 inches - pending the official data compilation tonight. I had 7.5 inches with the storm. But it's certainly looking like a record snow event for October here.
  13. Nino 4 should get pretty cold. I don't think it will be as cold as 2010 or even 2007, my issue has always been it would take a while. It's definitely cooling slower than 2010 or most strong La Ninas. The CFS depiction for November is almost dead on to November 1954, which turned into a cold West winter after an extended very hot Summer and Fall, kind of like 2007. I'd imagine for that era it also had very low sea ice. The late hurricane activity of 2020 is also similar to 1954. I know I've said for years now that Nino 4 is directly correlated to eastern warmth/coolness in December, but if we believe the CFS for November, other factors are over-riding that correlation. A cooler Nino 4 should lead to a colder Northern Plains. The CFS says very hot there. 2007 was a year that ignored the cold East via cold Nino 4 correlation - so if we're going to ignore the Nino 4 in November, the pattern will likely ignore it in December too. The CFS also had Montana very hot in October, which is a horrible bust, but that doesn't mean it will be wrong in November. My winter analogs had a hot West / cold East look for November, but the cold and heat would be pushed West of where they are shown on the CFS currently. The CFS will likely change some, but probably not dramatically by 10/31.
  14. https://www.abqjournal.com/1511218/snow-cold-blast-new-mexico.html New Mexico’s ski resorts welcomed the fresh powder, said Reed Weimer, marketing manager for the Red River Ski and Summer Area. By Monday afternoon, the storm had dropped about 2 feet of snow on the resort, which is scheduled to open for the winter season on Nov. 25. Tania McCormack, marketing director at Taos Ski Valley, said a storm of this magnitude is unusual for this time of year. The resort, which had received about 20 inches from the storm by Monday afternoon, plans to open on Thanksgiving Day. “Pass sales are going really well,” McCormack said. “Especially with the snow starting to fall, we’ve seen an uptick in pass purchases. I think people are really excited to get outside and back on the mountain.”