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raindancewx

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  1. The Jamstec trended to a wetter winter for NM & TX, but also warmer. Shows a somewhat weaker El Nino. Last August, there was a huge correction away from the previously shown El Nino in July. Not this year.
  2. raindancewx

    ENSO 2018

    The Jamstec still has an El Nino. I'd call it an east-central event, not a Modoki. Pretty -PDO look too actually, and I'd say it trended the Atlantic somewhat colder too. The model has the SW cold now. Rest of the US? Not so much. I think the model is assuming that with less warmth in the center of the Nino zone that the Nino would behave more like a 1997-98 event than a 2009-10 event. In truth, I think in between is more likely personally, ala what I've shown recently. The cold over Maine...and not anywhere else in eastern North America is kind of weird too? If you look at how different Greenland is have to assume the model has some kind of NAO input also. The model trended to a stronger STJ. Maybe in reaction to the SOI waking up lately? The Modoki structure moved away from the 1968/2009 extreme of +0.7 (CPAC)-(EPAC*0.5)-(WPAC*0.5) to +0.3 for winter, somewhat like 2014 v. 2009. Finally, like I keep saying a weak El Nino seems to be the outcome with the most support, and the Jamstec has joined the chorus for that. Peak is now under +1.0C (ONI would hit maybe +0.8C?) from +1.1C previously. Last year, the Jamstec had a +1.0 DJF El Nino in its July run, before rapidly correcting down to +0.2 for DJF in its August run and then showing a La Nina after. Doesn't seem to be doing that this year.
  3. raindancewx

    ENSO 2018

    Latest PDO value from JISAO/Nate Mantua arrived in my email today. PDO is now comparable to last year. PDO Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 2017** 0.77 0.70 0.74 1.12 0.88 0.79 0.10 0.09 0.32 0.05 0.15 0.50 2018** 0.70 0.37 -0.05 0.11 0.11 -0.04 0.11
  4. raindancewx

    ENSO 2018

    Warming West, cooling east. Nino 4 is the most stable region overall, and warmer than last year, so the -SOI should prevent an imminent collapse in 3/3.4 a la last year. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 04JUL2018 21.9-0.2 26.5 0.6 27.7 0.4 29.2 0.3 11JUL2018 21.6-0.2 26.1 0.4 27.5 0.2 29.0 0.2 18JUL2018 21.3-0.3 26.1 0.6 27.6 0.4 29.1 0.3 25JUL2018 21.1-0.3 25.8 0.3 27.4 0.3 29.0 0.3 01AUG2018 21.2 0.1 25.3 0.0 27.1 0.1 29.1 0.4 08AUG2018 20.8-0.1 25.1-0.1 27.1 0.2 29.2 0.5 Last year, for comparison. 05JUL2017 21.7-0.3 26.1 0.2 28.0 0.6 29.4 0.6 12JUL2017 21.8 0.0 26.1 0.4 27.8 0.5 29.3 0.5 19JUL2017 21.4-0.1 25.7 0.2 27.6 0.4 29.2 0.4 26JUL2017 21.3 0.0 25.5 0.1 27.1 0.0 28.9 0.2 02AUG2017 20.9-0.1 25.4 0.1 27.2 0.2 28.9 0.2 09AUG2017 20.5-0.3 25.1 0.0 26.7-0.2 28.7 0.1 16AUG2017 19.9-0.7 24.5-0.5 26.4-0.5 28.8 0.1
  5. raindancewx

    ENSO 2018

    I still expect an El Nino, but if we flat-line at +0.2C or +0.3C in the weeklies through mid-September, I think a 2012-13 like collapse in an ONI sense becomes possible. Will give it to mid-September. The big -SOI burst should help a lot given the warmth in Nino 4. Neutral years and El Nino Modoki years are pretty similar out here anyway. The August plume for Nino 3.4 from the ECMWF implied a fall off, before a return to warm Nino 3.4 conditions. If that ends up verifying, I don't think the ECMWF Nino 3.4 plume will change much for September. Last September, the ECMWF handled the following six months pretty well, so that is the run to watch.
  6. raindancewx

    ENSO 2018

    The <-20 readings for the daily SOI are a good sign for an El Nino. SOI doesn't usually drop like that in Neutral or La Nina conditions. 30/90 day SOI are around -2 now, which is Neutral but heading in the right direction. I think the European is probably right, August may be a touch colder than Nino 3.4 in July, but some kind of rebound looks likely going forward. The warm water should surface by 120W soon, then at some point the warm waters west will move east and surface.
  7. raindancewx

    Has the AMO Flipped Phases?

    In the post 1994 warm AMO era, the AMO reading for July was the coldest since 2002. Only 1996 & 2002 were colder. Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 2016 0.231 0.156 0.188 0.177 0.344 0.409 0.432 0.457 0.458 0.380 0.390 0.335 2017 0.225 0.227 0.167 0.283 0.314 0.308 0.302 0.310 0.350 0.433 0.352 0.364 2018 0.173 0.062 0.132 0.064 -0.001 -0.011 0.018 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/amon.us.long.data
  8. raindancewx

    ENSO 2018

    European last August had the right idea for Fall/Winter/Spring after showing an El Nino in July 2017 for that winter. This year, it has corrected to a weak El Nino for winter. Every single run of the model has borderline El Nino to moderate El Nino conditions for Fall...so yeah. The dotted line is the verification from last year.
  9. raindancewx

    ENSO 2018

    Honestly, after playing around the extended data, I like 1934-35 (not an El Nino), 1976-77, 1986-87, 1994-95, 1994-95, 2006-07 as the winter blend for the PDO, AMO, El Nino strength, Modoki structure, solar conditions, ENSO order, and my local weather this Summer. It all fits. The Modoki structure comes to +0.26 in that setup, but I think it'd actually be weaker than that, even with Nino 3.4 much warmer than Nino 1.2, because the area east of the Philippines is included in the Modoki calculation. It's BOX A-(0.5*BOX B)-(0.5*BOX C). If you plug in the blend of those Octobers SSTs into my Modoki calculator, it gives these anomalies to get the Modoki structure: BOX A: +0.592 BOX B: +0.478 Box C: +0.528 Modoki: +0.088 - much lower than 2009, mainly because Box A (~Nino 3.4) was warmer in 2009-10 and Box C (W. Pac) was much colder. This will change, but the blend looks quite close to now in the N. Hem:
  10. raindancewx

    Mountain West Discussion

    Hit 98F today in Albuquerque. That is pretty hot for August here. All-time August record is 101F, we last hit 100F in 1994 in August. Even 98F in August is pretty rare, last happened in 2015.
  11. raindancewx

    Has the AMO Flipped Phases?

    Speaking for my area, during the Monsoon season we tend to get relatively frequent "cold" snaps when the AMO is positive in Summer, i.e. highs in the 70s/low 80s instead of 90s. This year, we've had an alternation between mild/wet and warm dry, which is more consistent with the "warm" snaps in the Monsoon season during the negative AMO in Summer, which I find interesting. Super El Nino or not in 2015, August was incredibly hot here that year with the AMO relatively cool. Heat in September seems to be especially severe in the SW during AMO+, high solar years - look at September in the 1950s out here relative to the past 30 years. Will be very interesting to see if we get a number of cold Septembers with the AMO colder and very low solar activity for the next two to three years. Should be very interesting seeing what the July AMO number is. Really think -0.000 to -0.100 is possible, although I'd wager up to +0.05 or +0.1 is possible too.
  12. raindancewx

    ENSO 2018

    I wouldn't worry about the drop yet, this week saw Nino 4 and Nino 1.2 warm up some, so any trades originating from those regions will re-warm/prevent cooling in Nino 3.4 Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 04JUL2018 21.9-0.2 26.5 0.6 27.7 0.4 29.2 0.3 11JUL2018 21.6-0.2 26.1 0.4 27.5 0.2 29.0 0.2 18JUL2018 21.3-0.3 26.1 0.6 27.6 0.4 29.1 0.3 25JUL2018 21.1-0.3 25.8 0.3 27.4 0.3 29.0 0.3 01AUG2018 21.2 0.1 25.3 0.0 27.1 0.1 29.1 0.4 Here is 2014 for comparison, it had a brief break in Nino 3.4 warming too. 02JUL2014 23.6 1.4 27.0 1.0 27.8 0.4 29.1 0.3 09JUL2014 23.0 1.1 26.5 0.6 27.6 0.3 29.1 0.3 16JUL2014 23.1 1.5 26.2 0.6 27.4 0.2 29.1 0.4 23JUL2014 22.9 1.6 26.0 0.5 27.1-0.1 28.9 0.2 30JUL2014 21.8 0.6 25.5 0.2 26.9-0.1 29.0 0.3 06AUG2014 22.2 1.2 25.6 0.4 27.0 0.0 29.2 0.5 13AUG2014 21.9 1.2 25.5 0.5 26.9 0.0 29.0 0.4 2012 was actually warmer at this time, before massively reversing. 25JUL2012 22.0 0.7 26.4 1.0 27.7 0.6 28.9 0.1 01AUG2012 21.6 0.5 26.1 0.9 27.6 0.6 29.0 0.3 08AUG2012 20.9 0.0 25.9 0.8 27.7 0.8 29.1 0.4 15AUG2012 20.8 0.1 25.6 0.6 27.4 0.6 29.1 0.4 22AUG2012 21.0 0.4 25.5 0.5 27.4 0.6 29.1 0.4 2006 is somewhat similar. 05JUL2006 22.2 0.1 26.0 0.1 27.5 0.1 29.0 0.1 12JUL2006 22.0 0.2 25.8 0.0 27.3 0.0 29.0 0.2 19JUL2006 22.3 0.8 25.8 0.2 27.3 0.1 29.1 0.3 26JUL2006 22.0 0.7 25.7 0.3 27.3 0.2 29.2 0.4 02AUG2006 21.9 0.8 25.5 0.3 27.2 0.2 29.2 0.5 09AUG2006 21.7 0.8 25.3 0.2 27.1 0.2 29.1 0.4 as it 1994. 06JUL1994 21.9-0.1 25.6-0.3 27.4 0.1 29.3 0.5 13JUL1994 21.3-0.4 25.2-0.5 27.3 0.1 29.4 0.6 20JUL1994 20.9-0.6 25.1-0.4 27.4 0.2 29.5 0.8 27JUL1994 20.8-0.5 24.8-0.6 27.2 0.1 29.4 0.6 03AUG1994 20.1-1.0 24.5-0.8 27.3 0.3 29.4 0.7
  13. raindancewx

    ENSO 2018

    I'm expecting a weak El Nino. JJA isn't going to hit +0.5C (Aug would need to top +1.1C), and I don't think JAS gets there either. These are the only El Ninos where ASO is the first El Nino period - 2006, 1994, 1986, 1977, 1976 (1923 did it too). 1986 & 1994 both briefly got over +1.0C at their peaks, but these are fairly weak Ninos overall. Against MAM, AMJ, MJJ, the closest ONI years (w/in 0.2C anomaly of 2018 observations for each period) are 1934, 1967, 1968, 1976, 1986, 2006, 2012. Those are all special winters in their own way. 2018 MAM: -0.4C AMJ: -0.1C MJJ: +0.1C Close Matches: 2012: -0.4, -0.2, +0.1 2006: -0.3, -0.0, -0.0 1986: -0.2, -0.1, -0.0 1976: -0.5, -0.3, -0.0 1968: -0.4, -0.0, +0.3 1967: -0.4, -0.2, +0.0 1934: -0.5, -0.3, -0.1 The lower solar years of the bunch are 2006, 1986, 1976, 1934. Last winter was very similar to 1933-34, 2005-06, and 1975-76 and 1985-86 to a lesser extent, some very active hurricane seasons, exceptionally hot/dry winters in the West, and 1986 had the huge SOI drop in February when ENSO was still pretty cold. So a blend of 1934, 1976, 1986, 2006 is probably worth looking at nationally. My idea for winter has been to have weak El Nino, Nino 1.2 colder than 3.4, low solar, the cold AMO ring, and to take into account "order" for ENSO, i.e. El Ninos after La Ninas. The blend of 1934, 1976, 1986, 2006 actually accomplishes that nicely if you look (I adjusted the scale to be less impressed with cold, since the four year mean is 40+ years ago). We'll have to see how it goes, but if you moved the core of the Nino to 140W in the image below, that's fairly close to what I think winter will look like.
  14. raindancewx

    ENSO 2018

    There is still a lot of heat below the surface around 120W and west of 170W. There is an extended SOI collapse ongoing now which looks to continue into the future. The waters around 5S in the Nino 3.4 zone are still fairly cold. Overall though, August still looks like it is warming from July. Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 5 Aug 2018 1012.05 1012.60 -13.17 2.46 -0.44 4 Aug 2018 1013.34 1012.60 -5.34 2.34 -0.46 3 Aug 2018 1013.80 1013.10 -5.58 1.78 -0.67 2 Aug 2018 1013.81 1013.30 -6.74 1.26 -0.79 1 Aug 2018 1013.63 1013.50 -9.04 1.18 -0.68 To put it simply...there is some warmth at the surface, there is some warmth below the surface, and the SOI is negative which to me indicates there is some kind of coupling going on. You can get a very hot Summer in the West with a developing Nino. A blend of 1958, 1994, 2002, 2014 is pretty close in JJA for high temperature departures to what has been observed the last 60 days. I don't want to give the impression that I'm expecting some huge, or even moderate El Nino - I am not. I think the peak is +0.5-0.9C. Whether the peak lasts long enough to be considered an El Nino, who knows. The 2012-13 and 2013-14 Neutrals both got to -0.3/-0.4 for a time, and acted like a La Nina for a bit, so to me, that is possible in the opposite direction. Edit: Also, the PDO looks to me like it is warming some. Still near Neutral, but NOAA's PDO jumped quite a bit in July from June, and the JISAO value likely will too. The PDO for Nov-Apr is predictable by using a base state value for Mar-Aug and then Oct Nino 1.2 SSTs. You create similar initial conditions from analogs and that is Nov-Apr. A pretty good idea for what the PDO will do should be available around mid-Sept when the Mar-Aug base period is in and we have an idea what Oct will be doing in Nino 1.2 http://jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/DATA/emi.monthly.txt http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest.txt
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