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  1. Does anyone have the European snow totals for the next ten days? There is a system coming through March 29, and historically, quite a few of the all time greatest snow storms in NM, AZ & Southern CO. have happened March 29-April 2, so I'm a bit wary that the GFS may be underplaying it. Our big dates here are March 2-6, Dec 26-30, and Mar 29-Apr 2. I used to have Weatherbell but don't have it now.
  2. CPC has much of the West favored for wetness now through April 7th. I can't remember the last time I've seen "60%" highlighted over NM in an extended forecast. Maybe January? Albuquerque still hasn't had measurable rain or snow in March since March 18, 2015, (60+ days) but suspect that streak comes to an end by March 31st. GFS is just a bit snowy over the West through early April... March 29 - Apr 2 is actually the second biggest five day period for heavy snow in ABQ after Dec 26-30, and we've had some pretty big snowstorms statewide in that period. Have to watch next week closely. My experiments with solar impacts on precipitation, filtered by ENSO, imply the SW should actually be fairly wet in May and June, but April should be somewhat dry. We'll have to see though, that's based on the DJF ENSO state which may not work this year. It seems like when Nino 1.2 is warm but Nino 3.4 is neutral/cool, we get transitory El Nino effects interrupting the La Nina effects, which would be consistent with a wet Spring after the warm March.
  3. Some people on Twitter are reporting 1-2 feet of snow in the northern mountains of New Mexico. Sipapu got 21", Ski Santa Fe 11". Sandias have a bit of snow on them once again. The NAM had up to 18" in the San Juans and it looks like it did pretty well overall. Questa, NM today.
  4. Very very early look at next winter looks pretty cold. Near-solar minimum El Ninos are much more likely to be cold in NM than higher-solar El Ninos. If you use 2F below the 85-year mean as the threshold for cold, it's 6/9 cold near the minimum, and 1/18 away from the minimum. Statistically significant difference in frequency of cold winters. I've kind of settled on these as the big seven for seasonal forecasting in NM: - AMO phase (<=-0.1, -0.1 to 0.1, >=0.1): WARM - PDO phase (<=-0.4, -0.4 to 0.4, >=0.4): WARM - ENSO (El Nino or not?). Neutrals will act like weak El Nino if Monsoon wet, like weak La Nina if Monsoon dry: EL NINO - Monsoon (>=4.3", or not): WET - ENSO order. El after El? El after N? El after La? La after El? La after N? La after L? N after El? N after N? N after L?: EL AFTER LA - Modoki? La Nina Modokis are often fairly wet in the West & warm in the east, as are east-based El Ninos: NON-MODOKI (look at Nino 1.2!) - Solar? 10x more likely to get big snow in March in high solar. Wetter Springs in high solar. Much colder in low solar El Nino though: LOW SOLAR (~2.5 yrs from min, ~20 sunspots) Looks pretty cold nationally too. Least confident about the AMO/Monsoon - monsoon is almost completely random other than a weak correlation to the PDO. AMO looks a lot colder than even two months ago.
  5. So...the legendary pattern may be returning for March? This is what the Canadian has. GFS still coming in... Going to be a lot of nasty tornadoes if the SW & NW are cool/cold with the SE warm.
  6. To me, the pattern favored the West because the QBO didn't flip like it was supposed to, and also because - for good or for bad - the world weather pattern seems to have less variation near the solar minimum for temps/precip. We're pretty close to the minimum now, ~bottom 20% for solar based on 1749-2016. My hottest and coldest winters are all near the minimum - once the pattern locks in, only a new ENSO phase can change it essentially, and so you can get extremely long duration cold and warm anomalies, with the caveat that sun angle will push the jet stream north/south toward the winter and summer solstices. So we had essentially El Nino like precip patterns from the QBO and Nino 1.2 being warm, that were locked in by the sun, but we had La Nina temperature patterns because the MJO was moving a lot and the Central Tropical Pacific was still anomalously cooler than the remainder of the Tropical Pacific. I had been expecting kind of weird winter for a while, there were a lot of unusual things going on last Summer in the SW, which hinted at winter weirdness. It was super dry early during the monsoon, so we set record some lows, not just record highs - I think Santa Fe got to the mid 40s and upper 90s in July 2016 - both amazing, and you had an unbelievable flip from July to August for both temps and precip. That's sort of what happened in Dec v. Jan - Dec was warm/dry, but Jan was incredibly wet and cooler, just like the July-Aug transition, which saw a record drop in temps for most of the West.
  7. The more I look at it, the more it seems like the might of the sun determine whether the mean trough comes into the East, the North, or the West in March. La Nina + low solar looks similar to this March so far, especially if you use a longer era than 1981-2010 on the maps below. May change in H2 March. Cold North, mild/hot Southwest/Southeast is pretty evident using 1951-2010..
  8. Do you guys have the same issues with March in near-solar minimum years that we have? It's very very rare for NM to get above average snow in March over the last century or so when we get near the minimum. "Near the minimum" being an average of <=55 sunspots per month from July-June on an annualized basis. We're at maybe ~28 for July 2016 to June 2017 by SILSO data.
  9. Well...that cool snap in the Atlantic is gone. The AMO & PDO hardly changed from Jan to Feb - 0.232 and 0.70 are the new numbers (ESRL and JISAO respectively). I've been playing with solar (sunspot) numbers lately since we're likely to be in near-minimum thresholds by 1749-2016 standards from the winter of 2016-17 to winter 2021-22. There don't seem to be a whole lot of huge impacts for my area, but it is notable that despite the reputation for cold in Solar Minimums, I found that here in the SW the minimum years (July-June years with monthly sunspot mean <=55), the real effect is El Nino / La Nina temperature differences are exaggerated. So the La Ninas are warmer at the minimum, and the El Ninos are colder at the minimum. La Nina at the solar minimum is also the worst snow pattern historically for Albuquerque, but its offset by El Nino at the solar minimum, which is the coldest pattern for Albuquerque. Expecting two of the six winters from 2016-17 to 2021-22 to be cold (mean high <=47.5F) with one possibly <=46.5F. Overall, when I did a proportion test (http://www.socscistatistics.com/tests/ztest/Default2.aspx) I found the following held true at the P<=0.05 level: - Odds of >=8" snow in a month is much more likely near solar minimum (18% v. 9%) - Odds of >=2" snow in a month is less likely near solar minimum (81% v. 96%). - Odds of winter being 2F or more below normal mean highs are 3.5x greater near solar minimum than in other years (33% v. 9%). - Odds of >=3" snow in March fall massively during near-minimum years (3%) v. all years (28%). It is the only month from Nov-Apr to show this effect. P was 0.00398, super low. - Precipitation, odds of snow, and Fall/Spring temperatures were not impacted at the P<=0.05 level, although I didn't check snow frequency of precip frequency, just totals. Spring / Fall temps I think might be impacted if I centered solar years on March / Sept instead of Dec, but i haven't looked at that yet. Spatially, it is interesting to note that El Nino with solar minimum is very cold in NM, while El Nino with solar maximum is very cold on the East Coast. The Midwest freezes when you have Neutral with near-normal solar.
  10. Was playing around with ENSO blended by solar-setting the other day. Results are pretty interesting. The maps are by July-June monthly sunspot mean from SILSO. I split the ENSO base states into thirds from 1931-32 to 2016-17 by whether sunspots where top third, middle third, or bottom third. So you get nine patterns of 9-12 years for the past 86 winters. If you split the US into six regions, there are clear patterns to which of the nine splits are hottest/coldest: Southwest (NM/AZ/W. TX/S. CO./S. UT/S. NV/S. CA): Coldest w/ El Nino + Low Sunspots (<55) - Potentially winter 2017-18. Northwest (WA/OR/ID/MT/WY/N. CO/N. UT/N. CA/N. NV): High Solar La Ninas are cold, High Solar El Ninos are warm Northern Plains (MN, IA, ND, SD, NE): Neutral w/ Normal Sunspots are very cold. Southeast (E. TX, OK, AR, MO, LA, KS, MS, AL, GA, FL, NC, SC, VA, KY, TN): La Ninas with low or high sunspots or high are warm. El Ninos with low sunspots are cold. Lakes: (WI, MI, IL, IN, OH): Neutrals with Normal Sunsports are cold. Northeast: (MD, PA, WV, DE, NJ, NY, CT, MA, RI, NH, VT, ME): El Ninos with High Sunspots are very cold. Actually, the El Nino with high sunspots is probably the most surprising thing to me - those are very cold years on the East Coast.
  11. Here is a look at the final temperature anomalies for the winter. Ridiculously wet for just about all the West, which is a fairly rare outcome - first time since 2007-08. Very warm winter in much of the Southeast. Very cold, likely near record cold, in parts of Washington state. My October forecast idea wasn't terrible, had the West very wet, and the east dry/warm. The dry/warm area got further West and was stronger than I thought, so it pushed the cold/wet area back some to the West. This is mainly because the PDO has stayed positive instead of hanging out around 0 like I thought it would. The entire West being Wet in a winter has only happened ~15 times since 1930, so kind of cool to see that happen again.
  12. Fun pictures. Snow in Texas in March have been quite the shock for some people. We had 9.6" Feb 26-28 that winter, biggest non-Dec snowstorm in Albuquerque in 30 years. One of the features of the 2014-15 Winter / Spring was the Atlantic actually got to the cold side of "average" in Feb-Apr. AMO ended up at 0.005 or something for Nov-Apr in 2014-15. It's interesting to see it radically cooling off again in the East again.
  13. The DJF ONI value came in: -0.4C.
  14. I haven't looked at the impacts in other areas, but the July-June year looks like it is going to average ~29 sunspots per month for 2016-17. We're likely in the first of six low solar years. Here in Albuquerque, we're four times more likely (34% v. 9%) to get a winter with mean highs 2F or more below average when July-June sunspots are below 55 annually. The last era for similar activity was 2005-06 to 2010-11. Right on schedule..with 2016-17 as the first "low sunspot" year. The last min was 2008-09 (centered right around Jan 1 2009), so presumably the next min in 2019-20. Expecting two of the next five winters to be 2F or more below the long term mean high which is 49.5F. When our mean high is <=47.5F here (-2F), we have about a 60% higher than usual shot at seeing more snow than average from Oct-May.
  15. Isn't it really just driven by where the Pacific blocking is and how quickly the Atlantic forces storms N/E out of the West? The Eastern Atlantic is starting to go into an AMO- look, it's just going to take a while for it to spread West towards our shores. In a solar sense we're kind of like the 1920s/pre-dust bowl pre super-solar max 1930s (pre-1933), but you have to blend it with the right AMO/PDO phases, which are like the 1890s/1950s but a bit warmer. Pacific individually isn't super dissimilar from the 1920s/1980s either. It's hard to get the entire West wet in a winter but look at these winters - almost the entire West is wet. 1931-32 1935-36 1936-37 1937-38 (this was one of my "ocean analogs" - very wet almost the entire West) 1939-40 1942-43 (one of my "weather analogs" - warm/wet winter sw, cold/wet NW) 1951-52 (similar in Nino 1.2) 1968-69 1977-78 1979-80 1982-83 1992-93 1996-97 2007-08 (one of my "weather analogs") A blend of 1937/1979/2007 is a damned good match for the West this winter.