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  1. This winter is going to be very interesting if the oceans don't completely flip around. El Nino winters are coldest here when they follow a negative ONI DJF, have low solar, and ONI is strong. The 2014-15 El Nino was after a negative ONI winter, but had strong solar, and was a very weak El Nino. 2015-16 was strong, but still had fairly strong solar, and followed a positive ONI winter. An El Nino in 2017-18 would probably be stronger than 2014-15, with lower solar than 2015-16, and after a borderline La Nina winter. It'd probably be more like 2006-07, which was a weak El Nino, with low solar, following a weak La Nina in 2005-06. If we don't have an El Nino, Neutrals are ~3F colder here when the AMO is warm. Low solar helps a bit here too. Last warm AMO neutral was 2012-13, which was actually a fairly cool winter here (-1.1F against 1931-32 to 2015-16). The low solar, high AMO Neutrals are 1931, 1932, 1943, 1944, 1952, 1962 - been ages since we've had that combination. 1943 is actually very similar to 2006 across the board, just lacking the El Nino. 1931-32 and 1943-44 were both unbelievably cold for almost the entire West, and don't seem too far off from what I'd expect for the sun, AMO, PDO, and ONI in a cold-neutral. In Albuquerque the mean high for DJF is 49.5F from 1931-32 to 2015-16. Neutral Year N-A PDO N-A AMO Sun Jul-Jun ONI DJF Tmx DJF 1944 -0.10 0.329 33.8 -0.5 50.2 1943 0.34 0.294 14.2 -0.1 44.7 1952 -0.41 0.260 36.4 0.5 49.9 1937 0.23 0.239 180.8 -0.4 51.4 2003 0.49 0.207 82.0 0.3 48.1 1931 0.38 0.186 25.1 -0.3 47.5 2001 -0.55 0.165 176.0 -0.2 48.9 1960 0.33 0.161 116.6 0.0 47.5 2012 -0.40 0.161 87.4 -0.6 48.4 1961 -1.53 0.150 67.1 -0.2 47.6 1962 -0.46 0.144 42.2 -0.4 48.0 1935 1.36 0.137 97.0 0.1 49.5 1932 -0.08 0.134 14.5 -0.2 45.0 1959 0.31 0.134 184.2 -0.1 46.4 1948 -1.62 0.117 194.4 -0.4 45.4 1936 0.67 0.067 172.8 -0.3 47.4 1966 -0.66 0.045 104.2 -0.3 49.9 1947 -0.11 0.009 205.9 -0.2 49.1 2013 0.38 0.001 108.7 -0.6 52.3 1934 1.02 -0.025 27.6 -0.1 50.7 1979 0.64 -0.045 233.4 0.5 54.0 1996 0.38 -0.058 14.5 -0.5 48.4 1981 0.34 -0.073 195.5 -0.1 52.0 1990 -1.48 -0.082 200.8 0.3 49.5 1946 -0.27 -0.089 197.9 0.1 51.5 1980 0.79 -0.131 199.1 -0.4 55.8 1989 -0.34 -0.158 200.7 0.1 48.6 1978 -0.20 -0.170 169.9 -0.1 48.1 1967 -0.52 -0.189 145.0 -0.6 48.6 1992 0.61 -0.227 103.3 0.2 48.7 1993 0.99 -0.266 53.8 0.1 52.0 1985 1.02 -0.290 16.1 -0.5 53.3
  2. The long-term trend (86 years) for May & June precipitation is down in my area, with all other months up or flat over the past century. We're one of the source regions for the Front Range, so suspect as we dry, you do too. It's bizarre because other than January & August, ever other month is up, and way up at that. The airport here just got 0.48" of rain today, most rain for the second half of June since 2010. In my area, May & June are fairly predictable by blending solar and ONI status. May has literally never been wetter than the long term average in a high solar La Nina going back at least 100 years. High solar El Ninos are usually pretty wet though in May-June. La Nina/Neutral are wetter when solar activity is low, but still fairly dry, but El Ninos are drier. So overall, suspect the weakening solar activity has some impact. May does seem to be driven somewhat strongly by the NAO, which also corresponds well to the sun. The cold phase of the AMO tends to correspond to wetter Springs too, and we're not in it using the traditional scale. The PDO, when positive is also a very strong wet signal for the Southwest, and it's been weakening since the 2014-15 winter/spring.
  3. 6/24-6/25 big bands of precip have set up over the Gila in New Mexico, then drifted east. So far they have missed Albuquerque, but the band today might get here. Gonna be close.
  4. This month still looks like a blend of June 1976/1994 to me for the US Tmax anomalies. It's not super far off June 2012 either. 2002 and 1996 share some weak similarities too I guess but 1994 really is close to a perfect match so far. The late 50s are close in a PDO/AMO sense but the sun is different, so 1956/1959 have similarities too. Against 86 choices from 1931-2016, these are the closest Tmax matches for the US: 1994 2012 1959 1976 1996 2002 1956
  5. After looking at the SSTA maps and observed temperature departures for June, I'm left with the conclusion that for our region at least, the cold waters off the coasts of Mexico are driving the pattern. The warm AMO essentially doesn't matter, given how much colder the Gulf of Mexico is against the rest of the Atlantic right now. If you do what Levi has on Tropical Tidbits and center the SSTA on the current global SST anomaly v 1981-2010 (+0.3C) or so, the Gulf of Mexico and West Coast Mexico Pacific waters are both frigid. The years that have both cold pools, similar June weather, low solar, and a developing (weak?) El Nino are 1976 & 1994. The ONI in MJJ was ~+0.2C or +0.3C for those years, also a decent match to this year. Would definitely be a hotter/drier Summer out here (although still cooler/wetter than last year) if the 1994 / 1976 blend holds up. My mean high for June is trending for 91.5-93.5F or so, which is consistent with the blend of 1976 & 1994.
  6. The JAMSTEC update for June looks like it has borderline El Nino conditions for mid-Oct to mid-Feb, with the rest of the forecast period merely "warm neutral". Whatever you'd call it, the trend is way down since April when the Jamstec had a super El Nino, and May when it had a pretty healthy 2009-like El Nino. The good news for the West, is that the Jamstec has also corrected away from forecasting an El Nino Modoki to showing a relatively traditional (if weak) El Nino. Looks like a low solar, weak, traditional, warm AMO, warm PDO, post ~La Nina, post wet monsoon Summer, El Nino-ish winter for the West. Blend of 1943 (x6), 1986 (x2), 1997 (x1), 2006 (x6) seems like a pretty good match to what the Jamstec shows.
  7. May data is in for the US Climate Divisions. Took a little while, but it looks like Spring was reproducible fairly well with 1963, 1986 and 1997 blended together. All of those years were La Nina / Cold Neutral before Summer, then El Nino in the winter after the Summer. All had positive PDO values, with low solar activity. With 1963 & 1997 weighted more than 1986 you also get a positive AMO value. 1997 had the big/cold/late systems in Spring just like this year. Those years combined are warm in the South, with cool spots by the NW coast, New England, and Michigan. It's an ~80%+ match.
  8. CPC has this feature called "constructed analogs" - it recreates ocean conditions forecast from historical conditions from 1948-2017. I was paying with it earlier, was able to match (relatively) well with what their most recent update has for Dec-Feb by using 1976-77 (x2), 2004-05 (x2), 2006-07 (x4), 2009-10, 2014-15. Would be kind of a legendary winter here if it verified: cold, consistently wet, snowy. My analogs were based off of AMO/PDO values for Nov-Apr, ONI values Dec-Feb in Nino 3.4, the ONI value the prior DJF in Nino 3.4, Modoki status, sunspots July-June, Monsoon rains in Albuquerque. Close years get points. The weights were tricky, but I settled on a system of 15 points, where the AMO (3), Sun (3), and ONI (3) count most, followed by Modoki status (2), prior ONI (2), and then the PDO (1) and Monsoon rains (1). Any year that has at least 8 points gets weighted at ((weight)-(7)). Values I used were: Winter ONI DJF PDO N-A AMO N-A Sunspots ONI (P) Modoki=1 Monsoon 2009 1.6 0.43 0.200 13.2 -0.8 1 4.0 2006 0.7 -0.04 0.208 20.1 -0.9 1 9.4 1976 0.6 1.04 -0.315 23.2 -1.5 1 3.1 2004 0.6 0.47 0.222 55.3 0.3 1 4.1 2014 0.6 2.07 0.005 90.7 -0.6 1 5.7 1976 0.6 1.04 -0.315 23.2 -1.5 1 3.1 2004 0.6 0.47 0.222 55.3 0.3 1 4.1 2006 0.7 -0.04 0.208 20.1 -0.9 1 9.4 2006 0.7 -0.04 0.208 20.1 -0.9 1 9.4 2006 0.7 -0.04 0.208 20.1 -0.9 1 9.4 Average 0.7 0.54 0.085 34.1 -0.7 1 6.16 Expected 0.8 0.80 0.200 18.0 -0.4 1 5.75 AMO / PDO will probably be higher than I have - my system of auto-analoging was looking for the values I listed or expected, so it did a fairly good job.
  9. Here are the latest ocean/solar numbers: Sun (May 17): 18.8 sunspots. Trailing 12 months to May: 28.6 ONI (Mar-May 17): +0.4C AMO (May 17): +0.32 (4th highest May value of this positive AMO cycle!) PDO: (May 17) - NOAA has it at 0.36, down from 0.52. Suspect JISAO value dropped some too.
  10. Gotta watch the possibility of a tropical system blowing up in the Gulf of Mexico and smacking Texas over the next ten days.
  11. Canadian Model still has an El Nino developing for Fall/Winter...but much weaker than its last run. Looks moderate in December, maybe it gets to +1.0C in Nino 3.4 briefly in DJF? May still be struggling with what will happen as its forecast for June from May 1 looks too warm for Nino 3.4
  12. I'm starting to think this is going to be a cool Summer for much of the interior West. I do think the West Coast is warm, and TX / SE NM is warm, but for the rest of the West the huge rains and snows this winter seem like they will interfere with the heat build up. If the research on the sun is right and you get enhanced cloudiness near the minimum, that would also put the kibosh on the intense build up of heat in the hottest valleys. Where I am, we can have our first 90F day as early as May 3 based on our records. May 25 is average for 1931-2016. But it hasn't happened yet. It's interesting because the number of 90F days is somewhat strongly correlated to first 90F day. We're unlikely to hit 90F here until at least June 3rd or so, which is fairly late historically. ABQ Total 90F Days: By Date of 1st 90F Day, 1931-2016 1st 90F Day Years 90F Mean Least Most June 27 56.8 23 86 May 20-31 27 67.9 42 92 May 1-19 32 65.9 43 87
  13. It's pretty amazing at how different SSTA are from last May 22. I used +/3.2K but some places have changed by more than that. Relatively radical changes in AMO/PDO/ONI values seem more common near the solar minimum, so suspect this type of wild/quick swinging in ocean temperatures will continue for some time.
  14. Elephant Butte Water level has been over 20% for 3.5 weeks now, currently up 16.5 feet from this time last year. Pretty impressive to see, as the longer it stays over 20%, the more water NM gets to keep for storage.