Welcome to American Weather


  • Content count

  • Joined

  • Last visited

About raindancewx

Contact Methods

  • Website URL

Profile Information

  • Gender
    Not Telling
  • Location:

Recent Profile Visitors

483 profile views
  1. Warm Februaries in non-El Nino years with 0.3" - 0.6" precipitation in ABQ tend to be followed by "cold" (for March) and stormy Marches. These years were good matches in January too, although terrible in Nov/Dec. Suspect the strength of the match will fade some in March and vanish by April? To me the March maps looks like a blend of MJO 7/8/1/2/3, so maybe we start out in 1/2/3 but make it back to 4-7 at the end of the month to warm the East up?
  2. We're forecast to get 0.1" - 0.2" tomorrow in the city. If that happens, 2016-17 becomes one of our only winters where each month had normal to above normal precipitation. It's only happened eight times since 1931-32 although it has been more common since the PDO+ era that began in 1976. 1943-44, 1978-79, 1979-80, 1982-83, 1984-85, 1992-93, 2007-08, and 2014-15 are our only winters where we've had a wet or average month every month of the winter. Worth noting that most of these were not extremely snowy cold-seasons - 1979-80, 1984-85, 2007-08 were less snowy than average, and only 1982-83, and 1992-93, and 2014-15 were very snowy (+50% or more). The core winters (D-F) were not super snowy either, although only 1979-80, 2007-08 and probably this year were duds for ABQ winter snow. Interestingly, March was evenly split between wet/dry after those winters, but the 8-year average came to drier than the long-term average - 0.35". Historically, a near-average to wet February that is warm in a non-El Nino year here will flip to a more mild/moist March (i.e. normal, instead of warm/wet ala Feb). Will be interesting to see if that holds up. Feb Mar Feb Mar 1932 57.0 57.3 0.54 0.27 1945 55.8 58.1 0.32 0.50 1950 58.0 62.5 0.38 0.04 1957 59.7 58.9 0.59 0.52 1976 58.8 59.8 0.40 0.09 1980 58.1 60.9 0.58 0.60 1981 59.7 60.4 0.67 0.80 58.2 59.7 0.50 0.40 2017 59-60? 0.32+ What do you all expect for March?
  3. I don't really buy the end of February being warm anymore. The MJO forecasts keep moving towards a longer and stronger pulse through phases one and two. There aren't many things that can make much of the country cold, but strong phase two around March 1 is one of them. The trend seems to be to keep the deeper pulse a bit longer each day, a few days ago the models showed barely reaching phase one and then heading back into hibernation in the circle. Now the models have it hanging out it phase one, phase two and maybe making it two phase three. I'd love to see 10-20 days in phases 1-2-3 in March, would be a wild pattern nationally, blizzards, cold, tornadoes, etc. We've certainly been much more seasonal here since we entered phased eight - phase six and seven are quite warm this time of year.
  4. JAMSTEC has increased it's forecast strength - and imminence of the coming El Nino. Says it is here in April. Last year, its forecast for La Nina peak strength did well - had it getting to -0.7C around this time last year.
  5. As a sanity test, I did a bunch of quick statistical tests to see which months, filtered by ENSO state - L/N/E - are most predictive of a wet or dry March here. For La Nina, the best two are Aug+Oct as a unit, and January. We had a very wet January here, and an OK Aug+Oct for precip. When I ran the numbers, 1973-74 popped up as almost identical to 2016-17 - huge January, nearly the same numbers in August & October. Despite the differences in the AMO, the MJO timing seems similar. La Jul-Jun Jan Aug + Oct March Formula Error Err, All Avg 1933 0.06 2.66 0.01 0.50 0.49 0.35 1938 0.70 0.80 0.67 0.60 0.07 0.31 1942 0.25 2.15 0.23 0.35 0.12 0.13 1949 0.02 0.86 0.04 -0.11 0.15 0.32 1950 0.41 0.09 0.29 0.18 0.11 0.07 1954 0.29 0.90 0.00 0.13 0.13 0.36 1955 0.46 1.38 0.00 0.33 0.33 0.36 1956 0.78 0.96 0.52 0.68 0.16 0.16 1964 0.47 1.02 0.49 0.32 0.17 0.13 1970 0.27 2.49 0.03 0.42 0.39 0.33 1971 0.12 2.02 0.08 0.29 0.21 0.28 1973 0.88 1.54 0.85 0.71 0.14 0.49 1974 0.26 2.75 0.95 0.48 0.47 0.59 1975 0.00 1.40 0.09 0.06 0.03 0.27 1983 0.33 1.47 0.62 0.25 0.37 0.26 1984 0.49 5.74 0.70 0.79 0.09 0.34 1988 0.57 3.61 0.48 0.49 0.01 0.12 1995 0.17 0.74 0.02 -0.02 0.04 0.34 1998 0.12 2.68 1.10 0.49 0.61 0.74 1999 0.30 3.30 1.27 0.58 0.69 0.91 2000 0.28 3.23 0.27 0.58 0.31 0.09 2005 0.04 1.52 0.14 0.12 0.02 0.22 2007 0.39 1.22 0.00 0.26 0.26 0.36 2008 0.00 2.42 0.31 0.43 0.12 0.05 2010 0.07 1.21 0.00 0.03 0.03 0.36 2011 0.40 2.41 0.20 0.41 0.21 0.16 2016 1.04 1.60 0.87 0.87 0.36 I was pleased to see it, 1973-74 was one of my analogs for the winter. The precip anomaly map today looks like 1973-74 but upside down - i.e. it's a warm AMO/PDO version of 1973-74 instead of the cold AMO/PDO version. The super heat is still in the SE though. Just for kicks, I tested what predicts March precipitation in a Neutral too. It's July, November & February. Using Neutrals, 1981-82 and 1996-97 are probably the best matches (which is interesting - given that they went into huge El Ninos fairly early). 1997 had a snowy, very wet and very cold April here, but 1982 was wet in March. 1981-82 was another analog I had for winter here. The Neutral predictors say we get 0.23", instead of 0.87", but in an ONI sense I'd bet on the La Nina number being closer given the La Nina conditions from July to January. Anyway, it's interesting looking at this because the months that are predictive for March moisture in El Nino implied a dry March last year, which verified, but this year, the numbers imply 0.87" precipitation in March, which would be our biggest March total since 2005. I'm cautiously optimistic that we kill the nine-year drier than average March streak this year.
  6. Albuquerque (officially) got 1.1" snow at the airport on 2.12.17 after being 75F on Friday. Maybe another 0.2" to 0.5" midnight after, but no report yet. It's winding down for now, but should snow again tonight. I think I only got 0.5" or so, but generally seems to have been 1-3" to the South & West, with a coating to two in the north and east. We've already matched January, our prior "high" month for this snow season. Kind of nice to see. My analogs and some tests I've developed suggested February was most likely to be the snowiest month based on Summer observations. Looks fairly likely now, unless March comes through. Pretty rare to get an over 1.1 inches of snow in April here (14% of Aprils in 85 years). So...our snowiest month will probably be February, March, or a Jan-Feb tie I guess if none of the snow that's fallen since midnight added up to over 0.1". Snow pack state wide fell from 139% of normal (Jan 25) to 91% of normal (Feb 12). Hopefully we can recover a bit before it all starts to rapidly vanish in mid-April.
  7. It's the wind. We have dry snow, any wind just evaporates it usually. I was looking the other day, in Nov-Apr from 1931-32 to 2015-16, we've had measurable snow (>=0.1") 739 days ending Midnight (8.7/Nov-Apr) in Albuquerque at the sunport. Of those days, 91.5% of the totals are under three inches. In El Nino, it's 11.5% snow days >=3", in Neutral/La Nina it's 6.7%. It's also pretty rare for it to snow when it is under 20-24F here, so the snow ratios trend to be 8:1 to 16:1 instead of getting super high.
  8. Winter Weather Advisory for Albuquerque Metro. 1-3" for city east of the river essentially, 3-5" for Westside/Rio Rancho. Mountains should do well with this. NAM keeps showing a trowal over the western half of the city. My research shows 95% of La Nina (DJF) winters get less than 1.95" precip in ABQ - so it will be interesting to see if we can beat that. At 1.55" currently with lots of moisture coming in the next month according to CPC. Euro has 0.5" with this system, 2-5" for the city. Not sure why they issued the advisory now, probably won't snow until after midnight...but it is what it is. I think we get a coating to 2" overnight Sun-Mon, and then 1-3" Mon Night to Tues Morning in the city.
  9. The Euro, Canadian and NAM now have a pretty big snow event for most of New Mexico after a dry 25-day period. Models have 3-5", 4-6", 2-4" (at least - NAM still isn't fully in yet), for ABQ, with the GFS showing 0-2". I'd probably go 1-4" with locally higher/lower amounts. But suspect the GFS will come up. Euro in particular came in much higher from earlier today. Areas in Eastern NM that hit 85-90F today are in for quite a shock Monday to Tuesday Morning
  10. The NAM is implying a trowal forms over New Mexico on Monday after the cold air conquers the heat. That's among the only setups that can bring a lot of snow to the Rio Grande Valley. Will be interesting to see if the NAM changes its mind in the next few cycles or keeps showing this. Albuquerque is somewhat notorious for seeing over-performing late season snowstorms (Feb 15 - Apr 15), that are supposed to be 0-2", that end up at 3-6", 6-12", or 12"+.
  11. I'm starting to get excited for March - the European weeklies if anything keep getting colder for much of the West. The CFS seems to be slowly trending in that direction too, and Canadian has been trending colder in its monthly outlooks since December. The deeper the European weeklies get into March, the greater the precipitation anomaly forecast. The ensemble mean and control run show a ton of snow falling in the SW & CA over the next 45 days too. If the temperature pattern verifies, cold West, very warm SE, the area in between is going to have to deal with a lot of nasty tornadoes in late Feb & March.
  12. We're supposed to have near record highs tomorrow (pushing 90F in Roswell & Tucumcari downwind of the mountains), but big snow after, especially for the southern mountains. Even in ABQ we go from ~73F (daily record) on Friday to probably a dusting to two inches Sunday Night/Monday morning. I'd like to see the southern mountains get a lot of snow out of this, they've been losing snow very quickly. Statewide, we're back down to 106% of average snow pack as of 2.9.17 against 139% on 1.25.17. But of course, it hasn't rained or snowed really anywhere since late January. Re: March - the models keep flirting with a cold March for the interior West, and can't decide if it will be cold in the East or along the West Coast. The Western half of New Mexico hasn't had even average precipitation in March (0.5") in something like 10 years, with the El Nino of 2010 favoring the north, and March 2015 missing (snowed like crazy Feb 22-28), and March 2016 favoring CO, CA, and Mexico (it snowed in Guadalajara last year...but not in NM!). The European weeklies have been showing a cold March, as has the Canadian, and the CFS seems to be moving them. It's hard for March to be cold here w/o moisture, so I am optimistic. March used to be a huge month down here in the mountains, it's about time for it's come back.
  13. Sad thing is our snow pack was at 139% of normal statewide on Jan 25, 13 days later, it's 113% of normal state wide. Been losing 2% a day on where we should be with the lack of snow and gradual warmth. Good news is this system coming in over the weekend looks pretty strong and snowy. European has two inches for Albuquerque. The CFS monthly, European weeklies, and Canadian monthly all show a fairly cold March for much of the West, and CPC has wet conditions for 2/13 to 2/17, 2/15 to 2/21, and 2/18 to 3/3 for New Mexico. Albuquerque has been drier than the long-term March average every year since 2007, would love to see the dry-streak break this year. The MJO is also about to go through phase eight with near record magnitude since 1975. The years where the MJO goes nuts in Feb/Mar tend to have big snow storms out here if it gets to 8-1-2-3. I think Jan-Mar 1988 is the best match to what has happened recently and what is forecast since 1975, but we'll have to see. Would really like to see the wave move intensely into 1-2-3 again, got super cold here in late January when it did that before, but too early to know if that is in the cards or not. We haven't had a cold March in a non-El Nino here (ABQ) since 1975, so I'm a bit suspicious of that part of it, but we keep getting these 25 day dry spells followed by a ~ 20 days where it is very wet for three weeks, with four to five storms, with some trend towards a wet week with one-two big storms instead in a week more recently. Dry Spells: July 3 - July 28 Aug 21 - Sept 10 Oct 10 - Nov 1 Nov 22 - Dec 16 Dec 24 - Jan 13 Jan 22 - Feb 12/13? Mar 8 - Apr 1? Apr 24 - May 17? Wet: July 29 - Aug 19 Sept 11 - Oct 9 Nov 1 - Nov 21 (Dec 17-23) (Jan 14-21) Feb 13 - Mar 7? Apr 2 - Apr 23? May 18 - Jun 8?
  14. The Canadian, European, and GFS all have a pretty big snowstorm for New Mexico next weekend. Focus right now seems to be Southern & Eastern NM.
  15. If the MJO forecasts are correct, the last time the amplitude in 8 (and maybe 1-2-3) was anything like what was forecast, it was 1988 & 1978. So...that'd be fun.