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raindancewx

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  1. Overall, I don't know that the winter will have super different features than last year. You have a lot of warmth by Indonesia right now like last year. You have more cold to the East by Peru (although not really Nino 1.2) than to the West in the Nino zones like last year. Solar is still rising like last year. You had major -NAO blocking in April like in 2020. The big Gulf hurricanes hits (and even NE tropical hits/impacts) are there too. We're not following an El Nino this year, but one of the reasons I use ENSO order is because the warmth by Indonesia tends to be there in Fall in those La Ninas (look at 1998, 2010, 2016, 2020 as examples, opposite tends to hold for El Nino after La Nina too). Not as important this year. I do think the "weaker (surface) La Nina" after a "stronger (surface) La Nina" thing is interesting. Present in a lot of the "good" colder La Ninas/ near Ninas like 2000-01, 1974-75, 1996-97, 2011-12 out here. You can even throw in the cold-Neutrals. 2001-02, 2012-13, 1967-68 are cold here too and weaker than their predecessors. You do have exceptions, like 1985-86, 2008-09 that are a bit shit here. But they're generally very cold at times even in the Southwest. These are years with a winter reading under 26.5C, when the prior winter was also under 26.5C, but a colder/stronger La Nina. There is some estimation on my end for the pre-1950 years. So this is the more recent 60 years.
  2. I personally think it is too late for this event to catch up to the strength of the La Nina last year. At least at the surface. Objectively, for July-September, I couldn't find a better match for the subsurface than 1992, 1995, 2020 (x2). So it is close for the subsurface.
  3. Here is something I was toying with earlier for my outlook - What do winters look like when solar activity rises on a July-June basis, but the winter is a weaker cold-ENSO event at the surface? My criteria here are a two winter sequence where sunspot activity increased by at least ten, and each of the two winters finishes with a 26.5C or colder reading in Nino 3.4. But the second winter has to be warmer. Some borderline cases for sure, 1934, 1961, 1967, 2013. But the slam dunk years for meeting both criteria are 1956, 2001, 2011. That's it...since 1950. Pairing DJF Nino 3.4 SST / July-June Sunspots Annualized 1955-56 25.22C / 119.8 1956-57 26.10C / 237.6 2000-01 25.87C / 163.4 2001-02 26.43C / 176.0 2010-11 25.21C / 44.0 2011-12 25.76C / 94.0 2020-21 25.58C / 16.1 2021-22 25.95C (?) / 50 (?) Bolded Blend: 26.09C / +60 Sunspot Gain y/y. It's not a bad match. The ENSO match for all four zones year to date that is best is 1967, 2001, 2011. That blend is fairly similar too. 1966-67 + 2000-01 + 2010-11: 25.70C / 103.9 sunspots 1967-68 + 2001-02 + 2011-12: 25.99C / 138.3 sunspots. That transition is almost identical to what I expect - a +30 to +40 sunspot gain, with a +0.3C surface gain in Nino 3.4 Both blends (1956, 2001, 2011 and also 1967, 2001, 2011) are a warm NW to SE, cold pocket SW look. I'm pretty sure that look is going to show up again. The warmth by Indonesia should enhance it too. It's interesting though - all of the years that both match on (weaker) cold ENSO after (stronger) cold ENSO and rising solar have that look.
  4. September looks like it is moving toward my tentative blend for winter. This is the idea for snow from the analogs. It's a decent match for ENSO strength, ENSO order, solar, the AMO and PDO, with high a lot of Gulf Coast hurricane hits, and a -QBO look too. Generally the look is more optimistic for snow in California, the mid-South and some Great Lake snow belts, but a bit less optimistic for the Northeast compared to last year. The way we get these totals by timing is also very different from 2020-21. I suspect that's true for temps too. In the West, I'm trying to balance 1974-75 and 2017-18, one very wet, one very dry, one hyper active in the Atlantic, one hyper quiet, both weak La Nina years with similar precip/temp patterns in Summer.
  5. 1933 is one of the five "shit winters" out here. It's on the Mount Rushmore of hottest, driest most boring winters locally for the SW US, alongside 1950-51, 1995-96, 2005-06, 2017-18. Virtually no precipitation for months (although 1933 had a wet November). The heat in 1933 in the West was shoved back compared to this past June-July though, so it's not quite as close as a 1961, 1974 or a 2017 in those months. The monsoon was very strong in 1933, including extremely heavy rain in September like 1995, 2005, 2013, 2017. The Mount Rushmore years tend to have one big wet September and then almost nothing for a 3-5 month period. The years out here with highs under 70 mid-June to mid-July like this year are pretty rare. 1933 does have that. I think it was 1933, 1947, 1964, 1968, 1986...and that's it since 1931. Locally, the first half of September 2017 was about 89 degrees for the high. This year is about 90. Cool down started a bit earlier that year, but we've got some western cool air-masses coming about 7-10 days after 2017 now. The cool down forecast for the West later this month should bring national temperatures close to the blend I like for winter. No MJO data for 1961. But the other years I like for overall analogs tend to feature "phase 7" occurring around 11/15, and then around 47 days after for each cycle. So it occurs around 2/16 too. That's consistent with those five years above that had highs under 70 6/15-7/15. Those years tend to feature severe cold periods here mid-Nov to mid-Dec and then mid-Feb to mid-Mar. To get both those periods cold, I think you need a 7-2 transition in late Nov/Feb, and then a 1-5 transition in early Dec/Mar. The upcoming period in the 6-10 and 8-14 does look like a 1933, 1947, 1964 blend (the non-El Ninos of the five) so that's "interesting" to me. Amazing that something as random as one cold day in June can "see" that. The years I mentioned are just similar MJO phases. I'm not actually that high on 2007 or 2008 or 1975 or 2011 or 2012 as overall analogs. 2011 is actually a real good ENSO match at the moment, but doesn't have much else going for it. Most of the year has been opposite in the US for temperatures until September.
  6. Summer PDO was 6th most negative in the past 90 years. Don't think the dryness is really much of a surprise given that fact. Although the monsoon was actually fairly strong in a lot of places south and west of me.
  7. When I weighted MJO timing matches to 2/3 location on 9/1 + cold ENSO + extra weight for low solar, I came up with 1975 (x2), 2007, 2008 (x2) 2011, 2012, 2020 as analogs. I gave 1975, 2008 double weight for following La Ninas while having low solar. Point is, those years feature ~1/3 of days in phase 5-6 from Oct-May. Given eight MJO phases (i.e. two divided by eight phases), you'd expect only ~25% without knowing anything. The years I like all seem to feature at least some MJO phase 5 in December. Given the warmth by Indonesia, that should be a super torch for most of you, and nice and average or cold for me as it should be. Best guess is week one of December is MJO phase five, and then we transition to 7-8 (and colder) by the end of the month for the east. Even years I like that are very hot like 2001-02 get pretty major cold shots for the East. Recurring precipitation/storm timing here since June implies a storm or storms around 11/30 and then again around 12/30. Usually moving into phase five is stormy here, and then moving out of 6-7 is stormy. We'll see. July was rainy enough that we'll get some decent storms early. These dry/hot late Summers almost always precede one or two incredible storms and snow in Oct-Nov out here too.
  8. Have you looked at 2001-02? Little bit nutty. This is my standard scale. So it's +7 in deep red (F) to -7 in deep purple. March 2002 is kind of incredible nationally. Actually...just about every year I picked is kind of incredible in March nationally. That's one of my big hangups with using that blend. Here is MJO phase five in 2001 - my greatest ally in December. Week two is colder for me than this. The MJO was around the 2/3 boundary on the RMM index on 9/1. Those years are 1975, 2007, 2008, 2011, 2012, 2020 since the data starts. Those years average ~1/3 of days in MJO phase 5-6 at decent amplitude from Oct-May when I looked. But...eventually 7-8 take over. I mentioned in the Weather Fella thread about snow pack / ice (where i'm the only reply) that I expected a big cold outbreak in December. This is an example of it - despite a warm looking month overall.
  9. Precipitation pattern for Summer was remarkably close to 1961. Really do like that year, although probably not going to be my main analog. The PDO in June-August by the Nate Mantua (JISAO) method was the most negative since 2012 - both around -1.4. These lighter greens / blues typically don't matter. But if an index is at one extreme, even the weaker correlations tend to work. Pretty strong dry signal for the Southeast Coast - and it's worth noting that last year, the PDO was only -0.3 or so in Jun-Aug. It's a fairly strong cold signal for south-central Canada too, which is often good for the southern Plains. The mountains of New Mexico and NE (Old) Mexico essentially exist to bound the mother-lodes of cold from big time Blue Norther / Arctic outbreak patterns, you can sort of see the mixed blue/white/green signal in light of that for temps by NM/TX/MX.
  10. The PDO was around -0.3 last Summer. At -1.4 in Jun-Aug 2021, lowest PDO in Summer since 2012 (-1.44). That's a major dry/warm signal for the South, that was not really there last year heading into winter.
  11. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 04AUG2021 21.7 0.7 25.1-0.2 26.7-0.3 28.6-0.2 11AUG2021 20.9 0.1 24.8-0.4 26.5-0.4 28.6-0.2 18AUG2021 20.5-0.1 24.4-0.6 26.0-0.9 28.6-0.2 25AUG2021 20.6 0.0 25.0-0.0 26.5-0.3 28.5-0.3 01SEP2021 20.3-0.2 24.7-0.3 26.5-0.3 28.4-0.3 08SEP2021 20.7 0.2 24.6-0.3 26.4-0.4 28.5-0.3 05AUG2020 19.8-1.3 24.6-0.7 26.3-0.7 28.4-0.4 12AUG2020 19.9-0.9 24.8-0.4 26.4-0.6 28.3-0.5 19AUG2020 19.5-1.1 24.3-0.7 26.0-0.9 28.4-0.4 26AUG2020 20.0-0.6 24.2-0.8 26.1-0.7 28.6-0.2 02SEP2020 18.9-1.7 23.6-1.4 25.8-0.9 28.4-0.4 09SEP2020 19.5-1.0 23.4-1.4 25.7-1.0 28.5-0.3 Nino 4 is as cool as last year at this time. Nino 3.4 is still running +0.7C for the same week. Nino 1.2/3 are both +1.2C for the same week. Last year, the La Nina was 25.58C in Dec-Feb. There are no ENSO events more than 1C colder than September in December-February since 1950 in Nino 3.4 I've been looking at the big IOD configuration by Indonesia a lot recently. You do have it this time of year in some legitimate La Ninas. But they almost always come after big El Nino years. So it is there in 1973 and 1998 and 2010 and 2016 to some extent. Much rarer to find it in a La Nina that is weaker and after a La Nina. But you kind of have it in 1974 and 2017. For now, those are my favored analogs, with both also showing similar heat waves in the West in June-July before switching much colder. If you scroll up the page, I mentioned Carla in 1961. Look at the dates on the map - 9/9-9/15. Now look at the (albeit much weaker) system to hit Texas this week. The precipitation pattern for 1961 is a remarkably good match for Summer, and temps were close too. I'm still refining the years and weighting, but my tentative blend for winter is 1961-62, 1974-75, 2001-02, 2017-18, 2020-21, and I'm leaning toward double weighting 1974-75 and 2017-18. I do think the MJO pattern timing is off in that blend, the Sept blend looks more like Aug 2021. Nate Mantua also sent out the August (JISAO) PDO today. It was -1.12. For March-August, the six month average was -1.2. I find that Nino 1.2 in October runs counter March-August PDO values, the PDO moves toward Nino 1.2 So I am expecting the PDO to move more positively in the cold season. I'll be able to run my projections for the NAO and PDO for winter in a few weeks. https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/tabledap/cciea_OC_PDO.htmlTable?time,PDO
  12. The long-range models are completely useless except for looking at the next month right before it starts for temperatures and precipitation. The Jamstec, when it was around did a pretty good job of accurate gauging ENSO strength. I do think right before the next month starts, the CFS and Canadian on tropical tidbits do have some skill, although much less in Fall and Spring than in Winter and Summer.
  13. Some random thoughts for winter - - The strongest land falling hurricanes on the Gulf Coast tend to precede incredible cold waves. Not always. Not in the same location or same month. But they do appear pretty frequently: 1932, 1935, 1947, 1961, 1969, 2004, 2017, 2018, 2020 all come to mind. - Cold ENSO Junes with staggering Western heat is not common. Like...at all. It's vanishingly rare actually. But it shows up in 1961 (a year a with 932 mb hurricane to hit the Gulf v. 929 this year). - In La Nina years since 1950, April NAO patterns correlate to December NAO patterns around ~0.25 (r-squared). The correlation is positive, so like last year, the very negative April favors a -NAO in December. - Years with similar levels of warming in Jan-Aug in Nino 4 - La Nina, El Nino - whatever situation you have - tend to be fairly warm in the winter. Not always - but very few exceptions either. I am expecting a major cold wave in the East this December. But I don't think it will last the entire month, and I don't think the month will finish super cold overall.
  14. The ENSO zones in 2021 are generally close each month to a blend of 1967, 2001, 2011. Not really expecting that to change overall. This isn't what I expect to happen in the winter regarding US weather, but I do think the event will look like this. I'm expecting what I would call "cannonically cold enough" La Nina conditions to last from about October-February, so may not be an official event.
  15. The WPO is a pretty warm signal when positive for most of the US in late winter. I think you guys would have been colder in Jan-Mar without the record strength (strong lows over NE Asia).
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