raindancewx

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  1. Mann is primarily a statistician by background, I think it matters a lot that a proposed statistical explanation is not correct, especially since he went out of his way to insist on it from the prior "consensus" about volcanoes. None of these proposed 30-year oscillations like the AMO or PDO really behave in that manner if you look at the data or the maps with any level of detail, it shouldn't have escaped the eyes of a smart person. The AMO is a major indicator of snow patterns, drought, and heat waves, among others. So knowing it isn't really a 30-year cycle is not a big deal to me, as a guy with no power. But it makes the entire concept broadly useless to someone like Mann trying to advocate social policy change to help with climate change. What are you supposed to do if you are Biden, and Mann tells you all these indexes exist and can predict outcomes well, but the indexes themselves are slow and irregularly changing, and subject to constant revision by their inventors? I don't have a problem with the Earth warming as an idea or the evidence for it. I had atmospheric physics, thermodynamics, hydrology and other pretty intensive math in college and high school. I just think as a field it is kind of useless. I can't imagine many scientists are attracted to something that is "settled", i.e. that the outcome will be changed weather and warmer temperatures, for decades. The settled science thing to me is classic double speak though. Things that are actually settled are not controversial or subject to hundreds of billions of dollars of research. The research and controversy exists because it is less clear what happens to the trends at a regional and seasonal level, which means it isn't settled, not really. People know the Earth is round. People know where babies come from. Surely these were state of the art scientific findings at some point. But they aren't now, so we don't argue about them or research them in meaningful ways. To me science is about discovery. The truth is, the climate can only change in a hand full of ways. It can move toward more/less for moisture/heat in a given spot or overall, or more/less for entropy if the way heat is input into the system gets screwed up. So it's not actually that interesting. You'll never see rain fall up or snow turn blue. It's not like quantum mechanics or something where you're looking for a grand unified theory of everything, which is actually interesting. Climate science is mostly about social policy. But the public has literally no use for knowing that the oceans are forecast to rise, given record populations in coastal areas. The public doesn't care about slow changes in hurricane activity or tracks, or about tornado activity or tracks since we just build better homes and issue better forecasts. I live in the West. It's undoubtedly somewhat warmer than even recent prior hot/dry periods like the 1950s, and water is scarce. But each time we need more water, another water source is found, whether it is a river or a lake that gets diverted. The same thing will inevitably happen in the future, even if it has to be through more extreme measures like cloud seeding, desalinization, or whatever the new method is.
  2. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 12MAY2021 23.9-0.6 26.8-0.4 27.6-0.3 28.8-0.1 19MAY2021 23.5-0.7 26.7-0.4 27.7-0.2 28.9-0.0 26MAY2021 23.4-0.5 26.7-0.3 27.6-0.3 28.8-0.1 02JUN2021 23.2-0.4 26.6-0.2 27.6-0.2 28.8-0.2 09JUN2021 23.2-0.0 26.7-0.0 27.8-0.0 28.9-0.1 Subsurface has cooled recently. But still neutral overall. I've always been high on the idea of a Neutral or an El Nino. At this point, Neutral seems possible. Certain things in the northern oceans have looked like 2013 at times since last Fall. The blazing mid-June heat here is certainly reminiscent and ties in well to near identical precipitation patterns in the SW to the 2012-13 cold season. Year over year, the subsurface is still much warmer than last year, and the surface will be too if it isn't currently. Should be a much different Summer than last year.
  3. A lot of the climate stuff is treated as factual, in the way that a sperm and egg make a baby is factual, when it is in large part as good as the assumptions built into the models. It's much more akin to economics and social sciences that use math to help arrive at the truth, with the caveat that you can never really get replication or clean control groups to test the ideas because we can't ever have the same Earth with less greenhouse gasses, to compare to the current Earth, the way you could have near identical populations of humans split it half to test something like a COVID vaccine. Without those more rigorous methods to test ideas impacting the Earth's climate, you have the potential for massive systemic biases, and much of the research can't be proven/dis-proven or falsified. My point is that 20 years is a pretty short time for Mann to be giving up on one of his major ideas. No one is ever right about everything, but you have to expect he's probably wrong about many other things.
  4. Pretty obvious that the public is never going to buy into the recommended social policy changes for climate change. Knowledge in science has no real relevance for designing or inspiring societal change. Easily possible to be a great thinker for one and a dumb-ass for the other. The scientists leading a lot of the charge don't exactly help themselves. Mann was talking about how he coined the "AMO" recently in the 80s/90s and then spent a lot of this year regretting it since newer research shows the AMO phases are tied to volcanic eruptions (duh, the same major volcanoes erupted in the late 1890s, 1930s, 1960s, 1990s, and have started to recently. I have books from the 1950s on climate that speculated that was the mechanism. Doesn't exactly inspire faith in Mann). I think it's pretty likely a lot of the younger scientists will see many of their ideas dis-proven as well.
  5. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 07APR2021 25.3-0.5 26.9-0.6 27.3-0.5 28.3-0.3 14APR2021 24.7-0.9 26.9-0.7 27.5-0.4 28.5-0.1 21APR2021 24.6-0.8 27.1-0.4 27.6-0.3 28.6-0.1 28APR2021 24.0-1.0 26.9-0.5 27.5-0.4 28.7-0.0 05MAY2021 24.1-0.7 26.8-0.5 27.5-0.4 28.7-0.2 12MAY2021 23.9-0.6 26.8-0.4 27.6-0.3 28.8-0.1 19MAY2021 23.5-0.7 26.7-0.4 27.7-0.2 28.9-0.0 26MAY2021 23.4-0.5 26.7-0.3 27.6-0.3 28.8-0.1 02JUN2021 23.2-0.4 26.6-0.2 27.6-0.2 28.8-0.2 I am cautiously optimistic that Summer in the US will not be blazing hot everywhere. Think we say a warm start cool finish in the West, with consistent heat waves and cold shots for the East. We'll see soon enough. Some fairly cold Summers shows up as good SST matches locally.
  6. 27.45C in Nino 3.4 in May 2021 is -0.5C against 1991-2020 but solidly Neutral long-term. Euro missed the boat on May too.
  7. You can always tell that scientists in meteorology aren't used to dealing with the public. Saying 97% consensus means nothing if the consensus is wrong. You can just look at the number of times the consensus about COVID has changed about death rates, proper testing, forecasting models, evaluating symptoms, public policy response, etc, to see why people don't give a damn about consensus. The case for warming is pretty strong, but if you put 100 scientists in a room I doubt they'd agree on the current temperature of the Earth or the best way to measure it. Presumably if I tracked the room temperature in my living room in six different spots for 100 years you'd have slight variation in the trends even within the same room, so the differences globally are unavoidable. So there is still infinite gradation in what is right or not in terms of the details, just as with anything. Most of the criticism of the science is really about conservatives recognizing (correctly) that even well meaning scientists have self-interested motivation, i.e. they'll look like buffoons if someone does ever disprove the current theories.
  8. +0.69. A weighted blend of 1989, 1991, 2009, 2011 is pretty close to May observations for the US temp profile.
  9. Canadian Model has trended much warmer in the short term in the tropical pacific but still shows a La Nina redeveloping in Fall.
  10. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 07APR2021 25.3-0.5 26.9-0.6 27.3-0.5 28.3-0.3 14APR2021 24.7-0.9 26.9-0.7 27.5-0.4 28.5-0.1 21APR2021 24.6-0.8 27.1-0.4 27.6-0.3 28.6-0.1 28APR2021 24.0-1.0 26.9-0.5 27.5-0.4 28.7-0.0 05MAY2021 24.1-0.7 26.8-0.5 27.5-0.4 28.7-0.2 12MAY2021 23.9-0.6 26.8-0.4 27.6-0.3 28.8-0.1 19MAY2021 23.5-0.7 26.7-0.4 27.7-0.2 28.9-0.0 26MAY2021 23.4-0.5 26.7-0.3 27.6-0.3 28.8-0.1 Subsurface warmth is there still , but is actually thinning a bit on the ENSO animation and PDF.
  11. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 19MAY2021 23.5-0.7 26.7-0.4 27.7-0.2 28.9-0.0 20MAY2020 23.9-0.3 26.4-0.7 27.4-0.5 28.9-0.1 Last year this is when the La Nina began.
  12. The ENSO signal sort of got over-ridden by the AO/NAO going crazy (+) in November and then the WPO also going ~record positive/negative at times in Fall-Spring. The wetness out here recently is arguably more tied to the +WPO/NAO than the ENSO changes. There has been actually been somewhat substantial reduction in drought in both eastern NM and eastern CO in recent weeks. My idea for the cold season had been 2007-08 -ish, given that year had a positive WPO despite a healthy La Nina, which is fairly unusual. The main issue with 2007 was always that the pattern was telegraphing at least some -NAO periods as early as September for the cold season. April and May NAO behavior is useful to look at for the winter when anchored to ENSO transition conditions, so will be interesting to see if the subsurface keeps warming. NAO was negative in 2020/2021 in April after being positive that month for a decade.
  13. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 24MAR2021 25.4-0.9 26.6-0.7 26.8-0.6 27.8-0.6 31MAR2021 24.9-1.1 26.8-0.6 27.1-0.5 27.9-0.6 07APR2021 25.3-0.5 26.9-0.6 27.3-0.5 28.3-0.3 14APR2021 24.7-0.9 26.9-0.7 27.5-0.4 28.5-0.1 21APR2021 24.6-0.8 27.1-0.4 27.6-0.3 28.6-0.1 28APR2021 24.0-1.0 26.9-0.5 27.5-0.4 28.7-0.0 05MAY2021 24.1-0.7 26.8-0.5 27.5-0.4 28.7-0.2 12MAY2021 23.9-0.6 26.8-0.4 27.6-0.3 28.8-0.1 The cold first half of May was something I expected this month. I had May 1979, 2008, and 2019 as three of the five analogs for May back in February. Large areas of the US below 5F in H1 May in a few of those years. May has been pretty wet in parts of New Mexico, that's correlated rather well with +NAO November years (near record + in Nov 2020) and the +WPO years in January (record + in January 2021). Wouldn't be May out here without crazy hail either and high elevation snow.
  14. My guess is no one in this thread has read the book.
  15. I don't get why people are so obsessed either way with the climate stuff. It's a one directional trend being super-imposed on a chaotic, highly variable system. The variable system is the interesting part, not the one-directional trend. Obsessing over whether the change is x, or x+0.5C or x-0.5C over some arbitrary period is pretty ridiculous given that everyone lives on a single point on the Earth and doesn't ever experience the global average temperature. Figuring out the specific regional trends on small time scales is way more interesting than figuring out that Atlanta will overall be 1F warmer in 100 years while the North Pole will be 5F warmer.