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  1. I put out my Fall Outlook today. Main takeaway is it should be cooler than last Fall. October in particular came out ~6F cooler than the very warm October last year. https://tinyurl.com/y8ae83v5
  2. The most interesting this about this winter to me is going to how the Modoki status plays out. The JAMSTEC is down right now, but the Modoki definition they use implies if Nino 3.4 is substantially cooler than the Eastern/Western Tropical Pacific as the CFS & Canadian show for DJF, that it will be the shape of a Modoki La Nina winter, kind of with a traditional El Nino blended in (since the Eastern Pacific will be warmer) for a Neutral/Cold Neutral DJF. I believe when the Jamstec was last up, it was showing a warm Neutral with a positive Modoki reading, i.e. Nino 3.4 warmer than the Eastern/Western Pacific and not cooler. These winters are very different for the US though: Nino 3.4 = -0.2, East Pacific = +0.1, West Pacific = +0.1, Modoki = -0.2 Nino 3.4 = -0.2, East Pacific = -0.2, West Pacific = -0.2, Modoki = 0.0 Nino 3.4 = -0.2, East Pacific = -0.4, West Pacific = -0.4, Modoki = 0.2 The third scenario is probably coldest for the East, and it is what we have now...sure enough with a fair amount of cold east of the Rockies. Today, Tropical Tidbits has Nino 3.4 at -0.1. Nino 1.2 is -1.0, and Nino 4 is +0.1 (proxy for what the Jamstec uses), so you'd get: Modoki = -0.1 - (-1.0*0.5)-(0.1*0.5), or a Modoki value of +0.35. The first scenario is what the models seem to believe though, and that would favor cold in the West or Central part of the US. I have no idea which to believe at this point. La Nina winters do tend to have negative Modoki values, while Neutrals are usually positive Modoki values, barring low-solar activity, which of course we have this year. El Ninos are usually positive Modoki values, but obviously some are not, i.e. 1982, 1997, etc.
  3. I'll put my Fall Outlook on here tomorrow - it's fairly short, only 14 slides, 8 pictures. Generally, expecting a cooler Fall in New Mexico. We had a warm (+2.2), wet (+20%) Fall last year against 1931-2016 means. This year, expecting a cooler (-0.8F), wet (+30%) Fall against 1931-2016 means. Main differences for NM that I expect are: - Cooler/ Wetter Sept v. 2016 - Much Cooler (-6F, 69.9F instead of 75.9F) / Wetter Oct v. 2016 - Slightly Cooler / Much Drier Nov v 2016 - we had near record precip last November.
  4. The PDO value for July came in today - +0.10. Lowest monthly value since December 2013. Of course, it does look like it has reversed back to positive now - the warm ring around the cold blob is back.
  5. Rained today here. Good 0.52" in under an hour officially. Temperature fell to 64F at 3:30 pm or so, which is always amazing in the Summer. More rain may be coming later tonight, Sat, Sun, Mon. Still running ~20% below average against Jun 15-Aug 11 rain at the moment. Also, if anyone looks at the Jamstec and noticed it is down, should be back Tues/Weds - I asked one of their researchers about it on Twitter. They had a power outage.
  6. We're in the yellow highlighted area in the chart I made - since +0.3 is equidistant from +0.1 and +0.5. If you center MJJ ONI years, +/-0.2C and then look at what happened, the La Nina last year was still +0.1C in MJJ, but it fit the exception pattern of positive ONI going to La Nina late because it was coming off a huge El Nino winter. The positive ONI MJJ years that have turned into La Ninas were all immediately after El Nino winters, 2016, 2005, 1995, 1983, 1942 - all +0.0 or higher in MJJ and all immediately after long-duration/intense El Ninos. There are quite a few close misses though, 1931, 1932, 1944, 1947, 1961, 1966, 1980, that were +0.1 to 0.5C in MJJ, and ended up between -0.4 to +0.4 without really being El Nino / La Nina. I'm leaning towards +0.0C to -0.2C for DJF, with maybe a peak of -0.2C to -0.3C in OND or NDJ. JJA looks like it will be -0.1 to +0.1 at this point. So first real shot at meaningful negative is JAS - and July was +0.4C on the monthly Nino 3.4 page I linked to a while ago. 1932 is really the closest year by ONI, and in a more holistic sense, sequentially: 1929-30 was a borderline El Nino (2014), 1930-31 was a big El Nino (2015), 1931-32 (2016) was a borderline La Nina/cold Neutral, 1932-32 would be this year, a cold-Neutral. The sequence in the 1980s isn't bad either, 1986-87 El Nino, 1987-88 El Nino, 1988-89 La Nina, 1989-90 Neutral. I also like the 1940s: 1940-41 El Nino, 1941-42 El Nino, 1942-43 La Nina, 1943-44 Neutral, but cold Neutral. The solar cycle in the 1929-1932 sequence is pretty close to now if you look, and unlike the 1980s it had the warm AMO too, so that's why I'd been saying El Nino or Cool Neutral. There are sequences of El->La->El that are close too, 1963-64, 1964-65, 1965-66, and of course 2004-05, 2005-06, 2006-07.
  7. I've been playing with a Fall outlook by matching weather conditions in my area w/ ocean/solar conditions globally, and even though Texas looks somewhat warm (+1F to +3F) in Fall, it does look wetter than average, with maybe a hurricane or two late Aug - late Sept? Don't think it'd be more than 1-2 though, the two clusters seem to be Central Gulf of Mexico landfalls and SC landfalls in the analogs. 1932 was the only year with a couple TX landfalls. Selfishly, I'd like TX to fry, we tend to be wet here when you have big highs over you - haven't had a wet August (>1.2* mean of 1.45") in the city since 2006.
  8. AMO continues to run way lower than last year. July came in at 0.307. Down from 0.437 last July. Was noticing earlier, from 1926-1963, there were 11 super warm AMO years, i.e. >=0.2, Jan-Dec. This year (probably) is number nine since 1994. So hopefully we'll only have a couple more big AMO years before the switch to the cold AMO sometime in the 2020s? Much easier for it to be cold consistently, and wet consistently when the AMO is neutral or negative in our part of the world. I lean toward 2022-2027, but who knows exactly when it flips?
  9. The AMO really does seem to have tremendous influence on the ice extent on Aug 1, or it is an amazing coincidence, I got an r-squared of 0.44 for annualized AMO to Aug 1 sea ice extent. The sun is a weak predictor of sea ice extent change for Aug 1 - Peak extent, but the AMO was still correlated at 0.22 r-squared. The AMO has been trending much lower than last year since June, so that coincides well with relatively little ice lost from the peak date (which varies) to Aug 1. Peak to Aug 1 losses are the lowest since 2006. Sunspots & AMO, when annualized correlate at 0.06 for 1979-2016, so that's kind of weird in its own right. The AMO seems to have been hot (>=0.2) on an annual basis 11 times in the prior warm cycle (~1926-1963), so would suspect we're almost done with these super warm years, there are probably two more shots in an AMO sense at breaking the 2012 record, assuming it doesn't happen in 2017, before 2020-2030 when the cold AMO sets in and slows/reverses the trend in declining ice. Super Warm Years (>=0.2) 1926-1963: 1932, 1933, 1937, 1938, 1944, 1945, 1951, 1952, 1953, 1958, 1960 Super Warm Years (>=0.2) since 1994: 1998, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2010, 2012, 2016, 2017* (probably) The AMO years under -0.10 average 8.786 million km^2 sea ice extent on Aug 1, the AMO years over +0.10 average 7.397 million km^2 sea ice extent on Aug 1, so some kind of slow down seems possible even with the Earth is warmer in the 2020s, back to maybe the late 1990s / early 2000s level?
  10. It's been pretty cloudy here too. Only 0.09" at the airport in August to date but I'd say I've had at least 0.5" at my place. July was 0.85" at the airport, but I suspect I had double that. August has been very cold nationally to date, except for the NW. My analogs (from May) were pretty cold for August, but if anything they look underdone now, even with a big warm up later in August.
  11. I have a sneaking suspicion that this August is going to turn a lot wetter pretty soon. Statistically, 30/31 times, when ABQ has an inch of rain or less in July, another monsoon month - H2 June, August, or September beats it. We had 0.85" in July. June didn't beat it. So the question is whether its August, or September. Lowest July that was the "top" monsoon month is 0.83", all the others are over an inch. Some of the models have semi-ideal conditions for the monsoon starting later this week. Moisture would probably make it up into CO & UT too. It could be September beats it, but it's been 10+ years (2006) since the city has had a wet August (>1.74"), so it's way overdue, given that 2"+ happens every three Augusts or so historically.
  12. ONI value for AMJ was adjusted down to +0.4C, with the MJJ value coming in at +0.3C. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml The July (monthly) Nino 3.4 reading came in at +0.4C (+0.9C over last July). https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/enso/indicators/sst.php Best matches to this year using DJF, MAM, AMJ, MJJ conditions +/-0.2C are easily 1932 - a cold Neutral, and 1963 - a moderate El Nino. In the meantime, the SOI index just crashed to -16.21 today, which means in a few days the Nino 3.4 should warm a bit. That's the biggest negative since July 12th.
  13. Euro plume from July verified on the high side again for Nino 3.4. Bit of a drop off in the monthly data, +0.6C to +0.5C or so. Last July was -0.5C, the first month of the July-Jan La Nina. SOI has settled for the last few days into what I'd call cold-neutral territory, +0 to +8. ONI / monthly Nino 3.4 values for July should be out this week. European plume for August should be out this week too. Canadian has gone to a Neutral DJF for ONI, which looks fine if steady cooling continues. August ONI has been running at +0.2C so far.
  14. The local NWS keeps talking about how the stronger than normal Gulf of Alaska low is saving this from being a terrible monsoon. The high is over NV, instead of TX, but the GOA low keeps sending in backdoor cold fronts that at least have some moisture with them. On the other hand, Arizona had an incredibly wet July, and I think they're in for a cold winter now, as it doesn't look particularly dry there this month either. Historically, some places do have stronger relationships between Oct-May precip and Monsoon precip, when one is up, the other is down, but it's pretty weak for the eastern 2/3 of NM & CO from what I can see. Will be very interested to see what happens this winter if it is a Neutral - Neutrals in low solar are pretty rare, only nine since 1931 by my count. Last one I'd say was 1996-97. Neutrals also tend to be cold out here with a warm AMO / weak sun.
  15. Solar activity (Jan-Dec sunspots via SILSO) is actually correlated pretty strongly with sea ice extent on August 1 in the Arctic going by http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/ but I think it is because the Sun & AMO flipped phases at similar times, i.e. the sun has weakened fairly consistently since the big solar years in the 1930s-1990s, and the 70s/80s/early 90s is when the AMO was cool, now it is warm.