raindancewx

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  1. Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 14 Apr 2021 1010.16 1010.50 -19.69 0.22 5.46 13 Apr 2021 1009.79 1010.95 -25.60 0.83 5.90 12 Apr 2021 1011.26 1010.15 -9.23 1.60 6.45 11 Apr 2021 1012.90 1009.25 9.08 1.52 6.74 Need to watch the period around 4/22-4/24 for some kind of major system. It's been years since we've had 35+ drop in two days in the SOI.
  2. Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 13 Apr 2021 1009.79 1010.95 -25.60 0.83 5.90 12 Apr 2021 1011.26 1010.15 -9.23 1.60 6.45 11 Apr 2021 1012.90 1009.25 9.08 1.52 6.74 That's trouble.
  3. Looks pretty promising for snow over the next four days down here. Only need 1.3" in the city to make it the snowiest cold season since 2006-07. Doubt we'll get much if any accumulating snow though. Oct, Dec, Jan, Feb, Mar, Apr snow at the airport would be six months with measurable snow. That's rare if it happens. Would be the the first cold season to see accumulating snow in six months since 1997-98.
  4. 3/26-3/27 +17 to 21 days....there it is. SOI crash was huge 4/7 too.
  5. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 06JAN2021 23.1-0.8 24.7-0.8 25.5-1.1 27.1-1.3 13JAN2021 24.0-0.3 24.7-0.9 25.4-1.2 27.0-1.3 20JAN2021 23.9-0.8 25.2-0.6 25.5-1.1 26.9-1.4 27JAN2021 24.6-0.5 25.7-0.2 25.9-0.7 27.1-1.1 03FEB2021 25.3-0.2 25.8-0.3 26.0-0.7 27.2-1.1 10FEB2021 25.4-0.5 25.4-0.9 25.5-1.2 27.0-1.2 17FEB2021 25.7-0.5 26.2-0.3 26.0-0.7 27.2-1.0 24FEB2021 25.2-1.1 25.7-0.9 25.7-1.2 27.2-1.0 03MAR2021 26.6 0.2 26.5-0.4 26.3-0.7 27.4-0.8 10MAR2021 27.4 0.9 27.1 0.1 26.9-0.3 27.7-0.5 17MAR2021 27.1 0.5 27.0-0.2 26.8-0.5 27.9-0.4 24MAR2021 25.4-0.9 26.6-0.7 26.8-0.6 27.8-0.6 31MAR2021 24.9-1.1 26.8-0.6 27.1-0.5 27.9-0.6 07APR2021 25.3-0.5 26.9-0.6 27.3-0.5 28.3-0.3 Will be curious to see how various features evolve later in the year. PDO is still pretty negative even as the subsurface warms. The pattern for fall-spring will probably remain to some extent in Summer nationally. Predominantly warm with some brief periods of severe cold. That volcanic eruption in the Caribbean is a bit of a wild card, it's listed as a VEI 4 eruption on Wikipedia and could maybe change some forcing in the tropical Atlantic or even the far eastern tropical Pacific.
  6. We haven't really had a wet month here since June 2020, so I'll buy more into El Nino conditions when we start seeing consistent wetter than average months across the Southwest. It is weird to say that though, since places like Santa Fe will end up with snow every month from September-March, and probably April too this cold season.
  7. The intense western cold and eastern cold are both thinning, but the map is definitely shifting to warmth pretty rapidly from where it was in February.
  8. Huge SOI crash in recent days also supports a big low in the time frame of the Kamchatka low now. Around 4/16 in all likelihood. Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 7 Apr 2021 1010.87 1009.55 -7.72 0.47 6.90 6 Apr 2021 1011.66 1009.35 -0.58 0.59 7.27 5 Apr 2021 1011.76 1007.60 12.76 0.49 7.57 4 Apr 2021 1009.21 1006.20 4.47 -0.02 7.65 3 Apr 2021 1008.30 1007.75 -13.27 -0.41 7.88
  9. Cyclically, this is the warm part of the pattern of the repeating 46-day cycle that's been in place since July. There has been consistent +10 degree warmth down here in each prior cycle (first half of February was quite warm as an example). I do think there is one pretty major cold shot later in the month though, going by the timing of the prior cold shots. You guys probably aren't completely done with snow just yet.
  10. The record +WPO in March really helped extend winter a bit out here. These correlation maps show r. So the purple spots are up to 0.5 r-squared for the WPO in March. Pretty interesting distribution of total snow compared to average so far. Will run an analysis of my snow forecast from last fall in another week or two after the final major western systems move through.
  11. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 03MAR2021 26.6 0.2 26.5-0.4 26.3-0.7 27.4-0.8 10MAR2021 27.4 0.9 27.1 0.1 26.9-0.3 27.7-0.5 17MAR2021 27.1 0.5 27.0-0.2 26.8-0.5 27.9-0.4 24MAR2021 25.4-0.9 26.6-0.7 26.8-0.6 27.8-0.6 31MAR2021 24.9-1.1 26.8-0.6 27.1-0.5 27.9-0.6 CPC reported -0.94C for JFM ONI using 1991-2020 as the baseline. Would be -0.8C against 1951-2010 averages. On the stable 1951-2010 averages I like to use, I get these figures for March: Nino 1.2: 25.66C (-0.49C) Nino 3 : 26.49C (-0.51C) Nino 3.4: 26.47C (-0.66C) Nino 4 : 27.62C (-0.45C) Here are the recent similar transitions in Jan-March in Nino 3.4. The years within 0.2C in all three months are 1996 and 1968. I would blend those two in with 2018, which is remarkably close in January & March. 2021: 25.55 / 25.71 / 26.47 2018: 25.57 / 25.97 / 26.48 2012: 25.67 / 26.08 / 26.67 2009: 25.66 / 25.96 / 26.59 2006: 25.63 / 26.08 / 26.57 1996: 25.69 / 25.89 / 26.67 1985: 25.38 / 26.03 / 26.50 1968: 25.69 / 25.68 / 26.33 1956: 25.34 / 25.76 / 26.46 1955: 25.61 / 25.81 / 26.22
  12. My sense is there is blocking next winter too. But if it is an El Nino, it will probably be focused Feb-Mar, not Dec-Jan focused like this winter. I would like another El Nino. The El Ninos after La Ninas are cool to very cold out here, pretty reliably, and the jump to even a weak El Nino from a ~25.57C La Nina in winter would be one of the larger jumps in the past 70 years, I think top ten for a year to year warm up. Solar activity is still rising, but it's going up fairly fast now. Next winter is probably the last "low solar" winter for a while. The relevant threshold nationally seems to be an average of 55 sunspots/month for a year from July-June. The subsurface in March was +0.28 down to 300m, from -0.82 in February. Huge jump. The trajectory Jan-Mar is still like some La Nina years (2011), but also now like some El Nino years (2006). https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt
  13. New Canadian has cold-neutral conditions for Apr-Jun, warmer than the prior run.
  14. Time frame to watch now is mid-April for a big system. Not sure if the position was right for the front range or west, but the 3/26 967 mb off Kamchatka should come through somewhere in the US as a major system.
  15. SOI finished March at -0.46. As I mentioned a few weeks ago, since 1990, cold ENSO winters are 4/4 in going to El Ninos the next winter with a -SOI in March. The 1985-86 and 2008-09 cold ENSO winters both saw SOI values of 0 to -1 in March.