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  1. Have to say, was pretty sure something like this would happen for CO given how many big time late snows we've had down here this year. There were major storms 2/28, 3/29, 4/29, before today (5/18). All heavy snow or blizzards. Pretty good for Spring. Lot of places in NM had near-record late measurable snow, so it makes sense that CO would later in the season. "Here comes the Sun" --> colder upper atmosphere, blocking, etc. This is part of why I went with a "cool" June in much of the West too...gonna be a lot of snow in May this month to kill the build up of heat.
  2. The fun thing about these systems is if the solar cycle is playing into the anomalously late/cold/south tendencies, that should continue for the next four or five Springs. I'm a fan, I like seeing the mountains out my window covered in snow in mid and late May. SILSO has limited solar predictions on their solar site, which has data back to 1749, and there is a case to be made this (near) minimum period will last from July 2016-June 2017 to July 2021-June 2022. The previous (near) minimum period was 2005-06 to 2010-11. Obviously 2006-07, 09-10 were kind of legendary in the Rockies/SW, and they both had low solar and El Nino conditions. Then you had 05-06 and also 07-08 which was kind of like this past winter, and the great cold outbreak of Feb 2011 during the 2010-11 Super La Nina which was nuts. My average first 90F day here (1931-2016) is May 25 - it looks like we could blow past that date this year, and I'm a fan of that too. I told the guys at Weather5280 that in ABQ solar plays a big role in how late a last snow can occur (p<=0.05), including this year when it snowed on April 29th (fourth latest Spring date for snow since 1931) so if Denver gets 3-6" (<5800 feet) out of this I think you have to expect this type of thing for the next few years. I'm pretty sure even down here we had flurries/trace near Memorial Day (late May 2009) in the last La-->El transition near the minimum.
  3. Even if it is cold enough to snow, and at night, you have to kind of go with lower snow ratios for these late events just because the ground is so warm and the sun is so high in the sky. I'd go with no more than 6:1 or 8:1 personally, unless you're super high up, say 8500+
  4. I haven't tested it for areas outside NM, but low-solar years are supposed to cool the upper atmosphere. So here, that results in far more common late measurable snows, and sure enough it snowed April 29 (0.7"), which was 4th latest on record for measurable snow since 1931, had never snowed on April 29th back to 1931. Suspect late snows are more common with low solar in other spots besides NM, especially in places away from major bodies of water.
  5. I made a Summer outlook (NM/Albuquerque focused) for the US if anyone is curious. Outlook: https://tinyurl.com/kvkpq7u Analogs were filtered from years since 1930 that went from Cold Neutral / La Nina conditions before Summer to El Nino conditions after Summer. I counted 14 years from that filter. Of those years, I then looked for years with a wet Nov-Apr in ABQ before Summer, a transition that was from a Modoki La Nina to Modoki El Nino, a +PDO Nov-Apr before Summer, a +AMO Nov-Apr before Summer, low solar activity July-June before Summer, and I looked for years that were at the end of an El Nino-->La Nina-->El Nino cycle over three years. When weighted, it gave a fairly wet cool (but not cold) Summer for much of the interior West. The numbers came out to show ~15 rainy days (+4) in Albuquerque (>=0.1"), with 56 days at or above 90F (8 below the 85-year mean), and only 0-1 days at 100F (1-2 below the 85 year mean). The analogs said first 90F day here will be May 23rd - which looks about right, but last day 90F day Sept 1 - which would be fairly early historically. It's May 15 and we haven't had any 90F days yet, and none seem to be coming for the next week, it's like ~74F as I write this - so we're probably getting to 85F or so today before cooling off for a while.
  6. Based on the seven variables I like to use for US winter conditions, this is what we have now for 2016-17 with the numbers (other than solar) final: ONI in Nino 3.4, DJF: -0.4 Nov-Apr AMO: 0.279 Nov-Apr PDO: 1.06 Modoki? Yes (Nino 1.2 anomalies way warmer than cold Nino 3.4) Prior Yr ONI: El Nino (2.2) ABQ Monsoon: 3.09" Solar (July-June): ~28 Sunspots Closest matches (using the previous ONI value) were 1931, 1931, 1944, 1976, 1983, 1983, 1998. Using years where "El before La" is more generalized, you get 1931, 1931, 1942, 1944, 1976, 1983, 1983, 1998, 2005. I set the threshold for an analog as at least three similarities out of the seven (i.e. absolute value of prior year to current year is w/in a top 20 most similar yrs on 3+ variables), and it does produce the correct spatial pattern for the winter...although it isn't good enough to get the intensity of the anomalies right.
  7. Was in a farming area of the Rio Grande Valley yesterday, and a lot of the farmers started to cheer when it started raining. Been a good wet year so far. The volcanoes west of the city were about as green as I've ever seen them, with grass and flowers in full bloom. The heavy rain and snow in late April likely helped some. January-April here was the wettest start to the year since 2007. The Jan 1 to May 10 rain total here is nearly identical to the Jan 1 to July 31 rain total last year. Worth noting: Jamstec just updated and has backed off the idea of a super-Nino for the winter, but still shows a pretty healthy moderate modoki/central based El Nino.
  8. If we do get an El Nino, whether it is a big one, or a small one, should behave pretty differently from 2014-15 and 2015-16. The nine "low solar" El Ninos since 1930, have US cold focused over the US south of 37N, but the 18 "high solar" El Ninos since 1930 have US cold focused on the East Coast. In Albuquerque, 6/9 "low solar" El Ninos see a DJF mean high of <=47.5F, which is at least 2F below the 85-year mean (1931-32 to 2015-16), compared to only 1/18 "high solar" El Ninos. It's the closest thing out here to a guarantee of a cold winter. Our last two low solar, El Nino winters are both kind of legendary for cold and snow: 2006-07, and 2009-10. Table Below is for Albuquerque mean highs DJF, ENSO / Solar filtered. Winter (DJF) Highs <=47.5F <=48.5 <=49.5 >=49.5 >=50.5 >=51.5 Low Solar El 66.7% 77.8% 77.8% 22.2% 22.2% 11.1% Low Solar N 20.0% 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% 30.0% 20.0% Low Solar La 21.4% 28.6% 42.9% 57.1% 50.0% 50.0% High Solar El 5.6% 27.8% 33.3% 66.7% 27.8% 5.6% High Solar N 13.6% 36.4% 63.6% 40.9% 27.3% 22.7% High Solar La 7.7% 15.4% 23.1% 76.9% 53.8% 38.5% P<=0.05? El Nino 0.00062 0.0139 0.0296 0.0296 no no P<=0.05? Neutral no no no no no no P<=0.05? La Nina no no no no no no My take on it has always been that El Nino effectively prevents "warm" winters here, but the low-solar loads the dice towards actual cold winters.
  9. ONI value for Nino 3.4 in FMA came in: +0.1C. Up from -0.4C in DJF.
  10. There were places in NM that got 1-2 feet at relatively low elevations east of the central mountain range. Areas outside Tijeras had 16" (20 miles east of ABQ, maybe 5800 feet?)
  11. Mountains and higher valleys in the northern half of New Mexico got pasted with this system - definitely the most snow I've seen from a late system here. I was asleep until 2 pm but it seems to have snowed at the airport around 7 am and then again around 11 am, and it stuck enough to dust the ground. I didn't have any days in March in Albuquerque with highs <50F. We've had two in April, and if the front had come through an hour earlier yesterday we would have had a midnight high then of 45F or something, which would have been three days <50F. Still waiting on the official number from NWS ABQ, they reported a picture of the snow earlier but no total.
  12. Albuquerque (sunport) at around 7 am. Was asleep, and they haven't put out the snow total yet, but maybe 0.1" -0.5"? Fourth latest snow at the airport on record since 1931. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C-mNM1FVoAAgaUa.jpg:large
  13. My high tomorrow is supposed to be 39F...which is ~36F below average for the date. Seems like the city has a six hour window for snow from roughly 4 am to 10 am, if we can some wet bulb magic. I'm at 40F with a 34F dew point, with the dew point starting to crater ahead of the next band of precip. One of the forecasters at NWS ABQ wrote on twitter that the upper air sounding was at record cold for the date in Albuquerque. This is all consistent with solar radiation interfering with the upper atmosphere, and then a developing El Nino pushing the interference to the SW. Since 1892, the city has had two days that were <=40F from Apr 15 - Oct 15 - so it'd be a pretty monumental achievement, arguably much more impressive than the snows.
  14. The 95th percentile from WPC has nearly 3 feet of snow in northern NM from this system, let's hope the forecast below doesn't "miss" low - a lot of people could suffer if the bust misses in the wrong direction. I'm expecting flurries-2" in Albuquerque, depending on how powerful the band is that moves over the city. Any intense precipitation should temporarily go over to snow and possibly accumulate on the ground.
  15. This is one of the highest snow forecasts I've ever seen for this late in the season for ABQ NWS - and WPC has 0-4" for ABQ (25th - 75th percentile). My high for Saturday is forecast at 45F, which has to be among the greatest late season cold shots on record here. My average high is 75F on April 29th.