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raindancewx

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  1. We just clinched a wet monsoon in Albuquerque, with 6+ weeks to spare in the season. Now the 6th wettest 6/15-8/9 in the past 100 years locally. Just had ~an inch of rain in an hour officially - equivalent of 1/9th of our annual precipitation in an hour. August tends to be wetter than July locally in high solar years, even though the months average the same amount of rain long-term. It's interesting to see that play out so well this year. 1996 remains an interesting comparison locally, especially since it transitioned to a dead La Nina quite quickly as the Jamstec and CFS show. 1996 0.17 0.19 0.02 0.00 0.02 2.86 1.03 1.54 1.45 1.52 0.95 0.00 9.75 2022 0.03 0.27 0.55 0.00 0.00 2.38 1.01 1.01+ tbd tbd tbd tbd 4.29 I'm still expecting a pretty healthy La Nina peak in Oct-Nov, and then a pretty rapid decline through February. Those tend to be good years in the Southwest because the La Nina, while present is warming throughout winter like a developing El Nino. 2020-21 featured that, with a cold December, a lot of snow, and then a pretty cold Oct/Feb too. August also looks like it is breaking away from 2011 as a good match to US weather as I've expected, but it is fairly similar already to August 2020 for temperatures. July PDO also came in at -2.86 - extremely low via Nate Mantua to my email. Super -PDO is a weak warm signal for the South. I suspect it will actually be very cold where I am for at least a week in December, but we'll see.
  2. The dumbest thing about these threads is that they never mention moisture. Our wettest Summers always prevent lows from collapsing overnight, and so they tend to not ever be super cold, even if the rain is excessive and frequent. Average temperature in the SW behaves like a pyramid, with the heat apex and cool morning low floor occurring often as a single 5 minute period, rather than places like New York or Chicago where temperature values are much more curved rather than triangle like at the floor and peaks. If you actually spent a moment outside you would know this. Warming the lowest daily temperature that occurs five minutes a day by five degrees and then bitching about global warming in that area in comparison to New York or Chicago where the lowest low and highest high of the day occur for hours is always going to make it seem like things are way worse out here than they really are. If you were to measure lows an hour after sunrise globally and use that as the low, I'd imagine you'd have far less global warming in the deserts of the world than the ocean driven climates like the Northeast. The giant purple area for a 60 period never seems to get any attention even though it's way more impressive than some ****ing +2 anomaly in a period of global warming. The danger of the heat in the Southwest to people is always during the day, and Phoenix is not particularly close to record heat in that sense, even though it's much warmer with the lows included. It's a 107F v. 105.5F median thing for 2022 v. the 1931-2021 median for the 6/9-8/7 period, and the lows, while annoying, are not actually dangerous to humans directly.
  3. My objective local top matches by month for precipitation and highs locally have some absolutely savage cold shots into the Southwest. Check out the days from Nov-Feb that are at least 10F below average in (). If you use 1938 as an example, the 25 severe cold days are -15 average departures say, for 25/120 days. So it needs to be like +4 all the remaining days just to hit average temperatures. January to July 1938-39 (25), 1943-44 (19), 1984-85 (16), 1996-97 (12), 2000-01 (13), 2020-21 (8) are objective best non-El Nino matches for 2022. I think 1970-71, which has the mother of Southwest cold snaps also showed up in the top six La Nina matches, mainly for how similar its precipitation pattern is, it's not too close for temperatures. Pretty sure 1996 was the top precipitation match, although we had 9 inches of snow here in Feb-Mar in 2022, basically all the precipitation that fell was snow not rain those months. 1996 0.17 0.19 0.02 0.00 0.02 2.86 1.03 1.54 1.45 1.52 0.95 0.00 1970 0.00 0.27 0.42 0.05 0.33 0.40 1.22 2.24 0.79 0.25 0.08 0.23 2022 0.03 0.27 0.55 0.00 0.00 2.38 1.01 tbd.. tbd.. tbd.. tbd.. tbd.. Have not seen 1970 as a match on this type of test since I've observed weather locally. January 1971 isn't even below average really locally for highs. But that -17F is the coldest it's been in Albuquerque on record, since at least January 1892. Not sure how I'd feel about a January with close to 90 degrees in temperature variation. Last year, my top local match for Jan-Sept on temps and precip was 1950, which ended up being a decent match nationally to the pattern (very hot/dry SW, until a severely cold Feb too). 1971-01-01 52 19 35.5 -0.5 29 0 0.00 0.0 0 1971-01-02 46 23 34.5 -1.5 30 0 0.00 0.0 0 1971-01-03 33 11 22.0 -14.1 43 0 0.26 3.0 1 1971-01-04 13 -4 4.5 -31.7 60 0 0.01 T 3 1971-01-05 8 -15 -3.5 -39.7 68 0 0.00 0.0 1 1971-01-06 6 -12 -3.0 -39.3 68 0 0.00 0.0 1 1971-01-07 10 -17 -3.5 -39.9 68 0 0.00 0.0 1 1971-01-08 22 -8 7.0 -29.5 58 0 0.00 0.0 1 1971-01-09 34 2 18.0 -18.6 47 0 0.00 0.0 1 1971-01-10 44 16 30.0 -6.7 35 0 0.00 0.0 1 1971-01-11 45 17 31.0 -5.8 34 0 0.00 0.0 T 1971-01-12 52 23 37.5 0.6 27 0 0.00 0.0 T 1971-01-13 52 25 38.5 1.5 26 0 0.00 0.0 T 1971-01-14 50 24 37.0 -0.1 28 0 0.00 0.0 0 1971-01-15 52 21 36.5 -0.7 28 0 0.00 0.0 0 1971-01-16 57 22 39.5 2.2 25 0 0.00 0.0 0 1971-01-17 56 29 42.5 5.1 22 0 0.00 0.0 0 1971-01-18 64 33 48.5 11.0 16 0 0.00 0.0 0 1971-01-19 60 29 44.5 6.8 20 0 0.00 0.0 0 1971-01-20 63 29 46.0 8.2 19 0 0.00 0.0 0 1971-01-21 68 40 54.0 16.1 11 0 0.00 0.0 0 1971-01-22 59 30 44.5 6.5 20 0 0.00 0.0 0 1971-01-23 56 21 38.5 0.4 26 0 0.00 0.0 0 1971-01-24 51 19 35.0 -3.3 30 0 0.00 0.0 0 1971-01-25 58 21 39.5 1.1 25 0 0.00 0.0 0 1971-01-26 64 27 45.5 7.0 19 0 0.00 0.0 0 1971-01-27 61 23 42.0 3.3 23 0 0.00 0.0 0 1971-01-28 60 34 47.0 8.2 18 0 0.00 0.0 0 1971-01-29 63 29 46.0 7.1 19 0 0.00 0.0 0 1971-01-30 65 34 49.5 10.4 15 0 0.00 0.0 0 1971-01-31 69 42 55.5 16.3 9 0 0.00 0.0 0 May-July nationally was a very good match to 2011/2020 as a blend for temperatures. But it's much closer to 2020, with the WPO sign flipped at the upper levels globally even though 2011 is better for the US. 2020/2011 as a blend would be a nice December for me.
  4. I tested objective matching highs to 2022 for 42 cities in the US for each month from January to July. Most-frequent best matches included 2020, 2011, 2000, 1959 among the non-El Ninos. In a lot of ways, 1959 is like a blend of 2020 and 2013 so it's interesting to see that year pop up. Both 1959 / 2020 are very hot Decembers nationally, with -QBO early year, and a flip to +QBO in July, as we just observed. The QBO in 1959 was around -20 like this year in January. For Nino 3.4, the objective best match year to date is 1985 for Jan-Jul. A lot of years that were close early have faded lately. Nino 3.4, in a historical sense still isn't super cold - it's ~18th coldest since 1950. So if La Nina is the coldest 30%, July was in the coldest 25th%. The years within 0.2C of Nino 3.4 in July average ~25.9C in winter. (-0.6C for my purposes in winter, -0.8C against the baseline CPC uses). Composite for La Nina with no Atlantic hurricanes by August 6th is about 10 years since 1930 if I remember correctly. It's a mild NW / hot SE look that trends both more extreme the later you get without a hurricane. If you make it to 9/1 without a hurricane in the Atlantic, the only matching La Ninas are 1984 and 1988. A lot of big, late-blooming hurricane seasons in La Nina start by 8/16 - so if we make it to 8/16 without a hurricane, that's a pretty good sign for a cold Northwest winter. The warm AMO / inactive La Nina hurricane seasons (<120 ACE) are something like 1938, 1942, 1954, 2000, 2007 - not super common.
  5. A lot of the data mining I do points to a winter of frequent light snows, that eventually gets to about average totals for New Mexico and parts of Colorado. I just ran a difference of proportions test, and heavy rain in June in Albuquerque ahead of a cold ENSO seems to meaningfully (p<0.005) enhance the odds of snow in October. We've got 11 Octobers with snow here in 92 years. But four of them followed an inch of rain in June, with cold ENSO in winter, v. only seven in the remaining 81 years. 1933 is the worst hurricane season on record in the Atlantic, so if you throw that out, as it is strongly negatively correlated to rain/snow/cold in the Southwest, it's actually a pretty solid list for snow for cold ENSO.
  6. As far as what the Canadian shows, it seems to think we're going to a blend of 2013-14, 2016-17, 2020-21, 2021-22. Verbatim, it shows essentially 2013-14 (x4), 2016-17 (x3), 2020-21 (x2), 2021-22. The blend is like a B+ match for the IOD/AMO/PDO/ENSO (~26.0C DJF for Nino 3.4) look and also like a C+ match for my solar/ace targets. Solar(61) /Atlantic ACE (107), NE Pacific ACE (110). I'd guess 100 / 100 / 150 at this point. The La Ninas without a hurricane by this point average ~115 ACE or so historically. I do expect a pretty healthy La Nina in the fall that is pretty dead by February, so even though this event should get down to 25.5-26.0 in the Fall, I doubt it will be much below average by late February. So I currently expect a weaker DJF than what the Canadian has. You'll likely see the big cold push peak at least initially in Sept/Oct and then flat-line briefly before decaying. I've already started my winter outlook, and plan to have it out by 10/10 again. Last year I correctly identified the cold snap in NM/TX in Feb 2022 as early as mid-September, so I'll likely have at least some stuff right by October.
  7. I don't think we'll be similar at all to the early 2010s cold-ENSO winters (10-11, 11-12, 12-13) frankly. You can see the Indian Ocean is completely different from 2011-12. Those Summers, 2011, 2012 they had some special features nationally - lot of mesoscale / derecho stuff, and a lot of east coast tropical stuff, with extraordinary heat and dryness in the Southwest, feeding the latter two. You certainly don't have the dryness and heat here this year, we're running exactly average for 90 degree days where I am against the past 100 years. The year with late October weirdness like 1992 / 2012 usually have the MJO in similar spots by now. Actually - July was quite dissimilar to the most recent coldest December years in the East. 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, 2013 are probably the five coldest since 1990. 2005 is closest to July, but the "heat hole" that month was right where it was hottest in 2022 which is consistent with my ACE idea - that it indicates where the subtropical highs set up the strongest. You had weakness in the highs in 2005, and so later on those areas got slaughtered with Katrina, Rita, Wilma, etc, and then the weakness persisted into winter, with the core high pressure over the SW. I actually think this winter may be remarkably wet as a defining feature. It should be fascinating to see how the hurricane seasons play out too - the East Pacific is pretty active for La Nina too. We're already close to a lock without an Atlantic hurricane through 8/4, or a major hurricane through 8/4 or 8/5. Last year without an Atlantic hurricane by August was 2017 - but I doubt we will see 175 ACE in September like in 2017. East Pacific hurricane activity is fairly correlated (mostly because it's higher in +ENSO) with more active subtropical jet activity in winter. ~La Nina (actual or near), +Active East Pacific ACE (>133) since 1971. Currently running 70%+ above average in the East Pacific. Already near total ACE last year in that basin, when it was quite quiet. Composite below is like ~188 ACE, rare in cold ENSO. 1971-72 (139), 1978-79 (208), 1983-84 (206), 1984-85 (194), 1985-86 (193), 2016-17 (185) Last year for comparison (2021, 94 ACE)
  8. Canadian has a weaker, more basin La Nina for winter than last month. Pretty cold in the tropics globally too.
  9. The -/+/- subsurface for 100-180W, in May/Jun/Jul is not really common. But these look like matches for it. 1996 is the only good match. 1995, 2000, 2005, 2007 are kind of close. Year May June July 1995: -0.44 / -0.14 / -0.44 1996: -0.16 / +0.17 / -0.18 2000: -0.18 / +0.08 / +0.03 2005: +0.00 / +0.11 / -0.20 2007: -0.58 / -0.18 / -0.48 2022: -0.10 / +0.31 / -0.30? It's funny, but 1990 is an almost perfect opposite year to May-July 2022: +0.05 / -0.30 / +0.27 1990 is basically the opposite of July. We'll see it that holds for August, I doubt it. Core heat / core cold for TX. We're actually going to lose 2000 as even a decent match for a little while. Subsurface is already way colder than it was in 2000 in July-August. The Fall pattern of 2000 is pretty interesting, but the subsurface development is already too different for that kind of Oct-Nov period.
  10. The anti-log full-on opposite is weak warmth, so it would support weak cold. That anti-log match won't work if the ACE picks up though to 140, 180, 220 or something by November. My point was it is rare to have El Ninos with very active hurricane seasons, and to have La Ninas with very inactive hurricane seasons. So you can flesh out the expectations by not only looking at rare similar years but rare opposite years. This is the updated ACE v. Philly snow thing for La Ninas through last year by the way - it still works about as well as it did half a decade ago when I noticed it. Philly doesn't get good snow snow years (call good snow +20%, or 27"+) in La Ninas without 150-160 ACE. Same goes for Baltimore/DC. ACE is also a strong indicator for cold snaps in the Southwest, and how cold mid-Dec to mid-Jan is out here in La Nina. So I do watch it pretty closely. Every 11 points of ACE is worth about an inch of snow for Philly on average. For Albuquerque, each full day of a major Atlantic hurricane correlates to losing 0.05 inches of precipitation for Dec-Feb. Last year had 145.7 ACE with a high of 50.4 in mid-Dec to mid-Jan which is very near the trend on the second image.
  11. If you use Dallas as a proxy for Texas, there are the winters that followed two extremely cold Februaries over the past 100 years, like 2021 and 2022, that were not El Nino winters / near El Ninos. I'm using 47F or colder in February for average temperature as my proxy for very cold. 1948-49, 1964-65, 1966-67, 1967-68, 1980-81. 1948-49 (extremely cold West winter) 1964-65 (very cold Montana, ND. Some cold New England/Rockies) 1966-67 (this is actually one of the most "normal" winters in US history - fairly near average everywhere) 1967-68 (pretty cold winter most of the US, extremely cold West look in December though like 1948-49). 1980-81 (very hot West, cold SE coast) July is actually pretty close, especially if you add a degree or two for the age of the analogs (they are centered on 1965!). I'm actually planning to use "anti-logs" quite a bit for this year's winter forecast. I think the low ACE + La Nina + high solar bit of it is going to hold. Not many years like that. So what would be opposite? 2004-05 and 2019-20 are El Nino after El Nino, relatively low solar, with high ACE. Arguably 1969-70 and 2003-04 are opposite too. Widespread inconsistent cold would be opposite - of the anti-logs (i.e. widespread weak cold in 2022-23). I could see Alaska getting pretty cold and then the cold draining into different areas of lower 48 over time. The anti-log look below is like a more widespread, but less intense flip of 2000-01.
  12. Oh and for what it's worth...the blend of the closest years already seems to have some skill, assuming we stay in La Nina for winter. 1st 90F Sunspots July-June Average ACE for Atlantic Hurricane Season 1954 9 19.2 104.4 1974 9 34.6 68.4 2000 10 (x2) 163.4 119.1 Blend 5/9 or 5/10 95.15 102.75 2022 5/7 100(est) 115(est) I've mentioned that there is a signal for a wet Oct-Dec in the West before a dry winter - October is very wet in the West in this particular blend. Actually a pretty severe Oct-Dec in the Southwest, with lots of cold and moisture. My inputs are not likely to be completely correct for solar/ace, so I'm sure I'll change the blending. I doubt it will be nearly as cold nationally in November-December. Almost all years (11/12) are cold or average winters for the SW with the very early heat though, so I am relatively confident in that aspect of it. It's sort of a super +WPO look outside December/March. So we'd likely have a lot of western storminess in brief windows that would correspond to major eastern "heat waves" to offset strong cold shots. You'd probably see one to two major Nor'easters when the Northern Hemisphere upper level patterns get screwed up by the WPO flipping phases and pushing everything out of the way downstream. Low Ace is also negatively correlated to high-snowfall totals in the Northeast in La Ninas - so I get 70-90% of average snows for Boston, NYC, Philly, falling to 40-80% by DC and Virginia, with that 1954-55, 1974-75, 2000-01 (x2) blend, despite the cold early. The main issue with the cold December in this blend is how much warmer the IOD zone, and that's the December killer for the East since it creates pseudo MJO phase five conditions. Suspect the AMO/PDO looks are wrong too, but haven't checked.
  13. Locally, La Nina winter highs tend to mimic a blend of heat timing (first 90F high), ACE in the Atlantic, and solar activity. Right now, ACE is low, with no imminent spike in activity. Solar is high. Heat came early May. These are the early heat La Nina winters - i.e. hit 90F before May 15th. You can see solar activity is similar to where we should end up for the July-June annualized number - around 80-120 if I had to guess. ACE is currently well below average, but could change. Last year was a warm winter, with no 90 degree heat until day 36 (June 5th) - quite late historically. The trend line for the heat-timing formula implied 52.0F for last winter, it was 51.4F - damn close for a reading I can pull 6 months ahead of winter. Hit 90 on May 7th this year, like in 2020. ACE index was 145.7 last year and implied a high of 51.07F - actual was 51.4F. Last year had four tropical storms and a July hurricane by this point, so we are tracking well below last year. ACE was 12.8 on 7/24. https://web.archive.org/web/20210724155022/http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/
  14. July has been impressively different from last year so far. Good sign for December here. July & December have decent long-term correlations in some parts of the US. Coldest where it was hottest last year for July & December, and vice versa. Core heat / cold a battle between TX & Montana in both months. The coolness West month to date / intense heat Plains (especially in the past week) is vaguely reminiscent of a major +WPO look in Fall or late-winter/Spring. Last year, we had a -WPO winter for the first time in a while. I suspect we're getting a hint right about now. Dirty little secret for you global warming obsessives - these big Summer heat waves are way more common on the Western portions of the continents at high latitudes because of their proximity to deserts and cold ocean currents. An easy way to analog for the winter is just to look up major heat waves in Western Europe and Western Northern America by timing and then roll them forward.
  15. One reason I'm expecting a fairly rapid weakening in any cold event this winter is the forecast change in the Indian Ocean Dipole. The Aussies have it quite intensely negative in Fall, before a rapid reversion toward normal conditions. Some of the years I like for winter do have the -IOD. In some ways, 2016-17 is actually emerging as a good match, even though it has some obvious dissimilarities too. If the hurricane season were to remain quiet by ACE in the Atlantic, that'd be a big hint. There just aren't many years recently with Cold ENSO / Low ACE. It's like, 2013, 2007, 2000, 1988 in my lifetime. Tentatively looking at 1996, 2000, 2001, 2008, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2016, 2020 among recent years for winter. It is not super uncommon for Texas to get nuked with severely cold February cold snaps two years in a row. It is basically unheard of three times in a row though. Just from that, the winter should evolve pretty differently than recently.
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