Jump to content

raindancewx

Members
  • Content count

    1,764
  • Joined

  • Last visited

About raindancewx

Contact Methods

  • Website URL
    https://www.indiegogo.com/projects/raindance-weather/x/12141322#/

Profile Information

  • Gender
    Not Telling
  • Location:
    Albuquerque

Recent Profile Visitors

3,637 profile views
  1. raindancewx

    2019 ENSO

    If the monthly figure in Nino 3.4 is above 28.52C - entirely possible as the monthly data is different than the weeklies - that's one of five warmest readings since 1950.
  2. raindancewx

    Mountain West Discussion

    Snow pack is pretty good right now for most of the West. New Mexico has a three week window left for meaningful snow above 8,000 feet, after mid-May, it will be difficult for even a few inches below 11,000-13,000 feet.
  3. raindancewx

    Mountain West Discussion

    Mountaintops are getting 1-3 feet of snow with the storm today in New Mexico. There were huge SOI drops from 4/9-4/13, so the storm today is consistent with the time frame expected. Wettest March since 2005 in Albuquerque, wettest April since 2007 - and we may beat 2007 in an hour or two. Snow pack is spectacular on some of the mountains in the north.
  4. raindancewx

    2019 ENSO

    Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 20MAR2019 26.6 0.2 28.1 0.9 28.4 1.1 29.1 0.9 27MAR2019 25.9-0.2 27.9 0.7 28.4 1.0 29.1 0.9 03APR2019 25.9 0.0 28.2 0.8 28.5 0.9 29.1 0.8 10APR2019 25.8 0.1 28.2 0.7 28.6 0.9 29.2 0.8 17APR2019 25.5 0.1 28.2 0.7 28.6 0.8 29.3 0.8 Steady. Subsurface heat for 100-180W is back down to +0.7 after hitting +1.5 around 3/1 (page 11 on the link). https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
  5. raindancewx

    2019 ENSO

    MJO has re-awakened for a jaunt through phases 2-3, for a week to ten days if the European is right. Cold signal for lots of the US in April. SOI is still behaving like an El Nino for the most part. Models are trending to a storm over the SW around Monday/Tuesday in light of the big crash from 4/9 to 4/11 (35 points) or the 4/11 to 4/13 crash. You tend to get a low in the SW ten days after a big crash. Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 20 Apr 2019 1010.44 1010.50 -17.67 -3.02 -7.02 19 Apr 2019 1011.70 1011.75 -17.59 -2.63 -6.77 18 Apr 2019 1013.01 1011.75 -8.15 -2.16 -6.47 17 Apr 2019 1012.26 1011.40 -11.03 -1.94 -6.26 16 Apr 2019 1012.95 1011.55 -7.14 -1.86 -6.12 15 Apr 2019 1013.08 1011.25 -4.04 -1.93 -6.12 14 Apr 2019 1011.39 1011.10 -15.14 -2.11 -6.13 13 Apr 2019 1009.59 1011.10 -28.12 -1.89 -6.01 12 Apr 2019 1009.69 1010.60 -23.80 -1.53 -5.80 11 Apr 2019 1010.80 1010.80 -17.23 -1.24 -5.60 10 Apr 2019 1012.52 1010.15 -0.15 -1.13 -5.38 9 Apr 2019 1013.55 1008.80 17.01 -1.68 -5.46 8 Apr 2019 1013.87 1008.10 24.37 -2.65 -5.67 7 Apr 2019 1013.79 1009.80 11.53 -3.68 -5.94 6 Apr 2019 1014.01 1009.70 13.84 -4.09 -6.12 5 Apr 2019 1013.83 1008.20 23.36 -4.81 -6.37 4 Apr 2019 1013.38 1008.60 17.23 -5.88 -6.84 3 Apr 2019 1013.08 1009.35 9.66 -6.60 -7.25 2 Apr 2019 1010.89 1009.65 -8.29 -6.99 -7.50 1 Apr 2019 1011.13 1009.35 -4.40 -6.89 -7.52
  6. raindancewx

    April 17-18 Severe Weather

    Mid-40s at my place with peak heating in mid-April, rain and hail. Pretty impressive...and sure enough lots of tornadoes likely the next few days.
  7. raindancewx

    2019 ENSO

    Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 06MAR2019 26.8 0.5 27.8 0.9 28.0 1.0 29.1 0.9 13MAR2019 27.1 0.7 27.7 0.7 28.1 1.0 29.0 0.8 20MAR2019 26.6 0.2 28.1 0.9 28.4 1.1 29.1 0.9 27MAR2019 25.9-0.2 27.9 0.7 28.4 1.0 29.1 0.9 03APR2019 25.9 0.0 28.2 0.8 28.5 0.9 29.1 0.8 10APR2019 25.8 0.1 28.2 0.7 28.6 0.9 29.2 0.8 Still solidly in El Nino territory. That said, the warmth below the surface is thinning rapidly now and some cool water is showing up. I'm in the camp that this event stays above the +0.5C threshold at the surface longer than most El Ninos, into June or July, but not convinced it lasts after that. Could redevelop in Fall, but I think we're about due for an extended Neutral period, we'll see.
  8. Ruidoso, Santa Fe and most high elevation zones have had good snows in the past week. Here is Ruidoso.
  9. raindancewx

    Major Hurricane Michael

    So...is the report upgrading Michael out or no?
  10. raindancewx

    2019 ENSO

    Nate Mantua sent out the March PDO value for 2019 the other day, and their new website. PDO Index values for 2019 January 0.66 February 0.46 March 0.37 The updated and full UW-JISAO version of the PDO index is now available online at: https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/tabledap/cciea_OC_PDO.htmlTable?time,PDO Nate
  11. raindancewx

    2019 ENSO

    European April run is pretty confident on El Nino continuing (above black line) into July, but doesn't have a good read on what will happen after - either rapid weakening or re-strengthening.
  12. raindancewx

    2019 ENSO

    Big SOI drop recently. Drop is comparable to the one ahead of the Blizzard of 1993 Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 10 Apr 2019 1012.52 1010.15 -0.15 -1.13 -5.38 9 Apr 2019 1013.55 1008.80 17.01 -1.68 -5.46 8 Apr 2019 1013.87 1008.10 24.37 -2.65 -5.67 7 Apr 2019 1013.79 1009.80 11.53 -3.68 -5.94 6 Apr 2019 1014.01 1009.70 13.84 -4.09 -6.12 5 Apr 2019 1013.83 1008.20 23.36 -4.81 -6.37 4 Apr 2019 1013.38 1008.60 17.23 -5.88 -6.84 3 Apr 2019 1013.08 1009.35 9.66 -6.60 -7.25 2 Apr 2019 1010.89 1009.65 -8.29 -6.99 -7.50 1 Apr 2019 1011.13 1009.35 -4.40 -6.89 -7.52
  13. raindancewx

    Mountain West Discussion

    Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 10 Apr 2019 1012.52 1010.15 -0.15 -1.13 -5.38 9 Apr 2019 1013.55 1008.80 17.01 -1.68 -5.46 8 Apr 2019 1013.87 1008.10 24.37 -2.65 -5.67 7 Apr 2019 1013.79 1009.80 11.53 -3.68 -5.94 6 Apr 2019 1014.01 1009.70 13.84 -4.09 -6.12 5 Apr 2019 1013.83 1008.20 23.36 -4.81 -6.37 Blizzard of 1993 was preceded by a 25 point drop in one or two days in early March 1993, can't remember which. A 24.5 drop in two days would imply a big storm in the SW around 4/20 as I mentioned above - we'll see. Might be something smaller around 4/17 too.
  14. raindancewx

    Fire Weather Outlook

    Spring out here can do whatever it wants - wind, hail, snow, heavy rain, tornadoes, derechos, dry lines, cold fronts - all possible in that zone. We've only hit 80F one time this year in Albuquerque so far - today - and lots of 50s are coming this week, with more rain/snow possible through Saturday. The mountains will have 50-100 inches of unmelted snowpack while Roswell will be in the 90s this week.
  15. raindancewx

    Has the AMO Flipped Phases?

    AMO is still pretty similar to the 1950s, despite the AMO trending up by +0.2C every 70 years. 2019 19.344 18.995 19.014 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 1953 19.443 18.917 18.852 19.447 20.343 21.495 22.792 23.434 23.346 22.424 21.425 20.338 1954 19.407 18.831 18.814 19.123 20.073 21.321 22.406 23.164 23.058 22.247 21.157 20.031 1955 19.259 18.778 18.758 19.235 20.182 21.418 22.722 23.355 23.275 22.561 21.573 20.342 1956 19.372 18.835 18.733 19.205 19.951 20.963 22.366 23.085 22.986 22.242 21.103 20.107 1957 19.107 18.637 18.702 19.071 19.890 21.218 22.499 23.388 23.298 22.437 21.276 20.170 1958 19.239 18.935 19.068 19.493 20.215 21.454 22.626 23.350 23.292 22.442 21.380 20.313 1959 19.293 18.863 18.700 19.146 20.024 21.176 22.433 23.203 23.208 22.405 21.248 20.206 1960 19.372 18.968 18.818 19.249 20.322 21.557 22.738 23.529 23.296 22.591 21.450 20.236 1961 19.259 18.835 18.881 19.382 20.215 21.273 22.451 23.232 23.091 22.327 21.269 20.314 1962 19.350 18.908 18.900 19.245 20.047 21.172 22.464 23.136 23.095 22.366 21.251 20.294 1963 19.361 18.925 18.871 19.264 19.942 21.199 22.439 23.128 22.891 22.231 21.150 20.046
×