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  1. The West seems to have relatively fast changes in mean low temperatures due to urbanization (harder to release heat from a darker ground?) but at least in my area the highs show much slower changes overall on an annual basis. I've always assumed it was a sunlight hours thing - you just don't have as many clouds or cloudy days as in the East. The solar cycles in the mid 1930s to late 1950s were also high enough to prevent certain types of "cold" events that seem to only happen regularly in low-solar El Ninos. On a relative basis I also think the warming that happened from 1938 (strong La Nina) to 1940 (probably a super El Nino) caused all sorts of craziness, maybe even more than 1995 to 1997 since since solar activity was so high back then.
  2. I don't know that I've ever seen the GFS show this much snow, this close to an event, this late in the season in New Mexico. 95% of this snow would fall by hour 144 - including 2-6 inches of snow in Albuquerque. The latest the city has had 3.0" snow is April 26 1984 - would be impressive to beat that by 3-4 days with 3-6". I'm sure it will change, but the snow trend is up at the moment, kind of fun to see. Also, this type of event is consistent with El Nino + Solar Minimum in the SW - you get ridiculously powerful late season storms in the Spring when those two combine forces. I'm starting to lean toward a blend of 1963, 1997, 2009 as an early idea for next winter, but the nine El Ninos near the minimum are pretty epic in their own right (1953, 1963, 1965, 1976, 1986, 1997, 2006, 2009). You could add 1930, 1918, 1905 as "interesting" too.
  3. GFS on board with (probably) the final big-time snowstorm for the season in the SW. Will be nasty for severe weather elsewhere.
  4. The GFS has snow down almost to Mexico on April 29th. Bastardi pointed out last week that a similar pattern ahead of the 1976-77 El Nino produced measurable snow in late April in El Paso, so I mean it's not impossible. The Euro has the MJO going from phase 7 to phase 8 which is traditionally a good pattern in Oct-May for powerful bowling ball lows bringing blizzards pretty far south - "Goliath" in Dec 2015 was at the transition from 7 to 8 with Roswell, most of southern/eastern NM, Chihuahua and large parts of TX getting their biggest blizzard since some of the legendary storms in the 1950s (the old Speedy Gonzales cartoons in the 1950s and 1960s aren't off when they show snow in Mexico).
  5. The PDO (JISAO) came in at 0.74 for March. Hard to get a big drought as long as it remains positive. The Nov-Apr value is likely about 1.0, which is pretty high given a negative ONI for most of the recent months. Will be interesting to see if the PDO spikes again with the developing El Nino. Sometimes it seems like the PDO lags ONI trends, so I wouldn't be shocked if the PDO declines for a couple months as the El Nino comes on, and then goes back over 1.0 for a bit.
  6. I'm expecting the rest of Spring to be fairly warm for the West south of a line from Wyoming to Oregon, but I think May & June turn a lot wetter. Not expecting a hot summer, although I've never really found a way of usefully analoging summer. The best Monsoon indicator here is a blend of how many days you expect to have >=0.1" precip from June 15 to Sept 30 (I believe average is 11), and how high the mean high is from June 1 to Sept 30. Will be asking my twitter people for those numbers next month to come up with a Summer outlook. Some faint signals exist for a near normal July-Aug here for temps/precip, with a cooler than normal June/Sept, but I don't put much stock in them. May after ~La Nina ish ONI in DJF is very dry in high solar years, and average or wet in low solar years here. May is also heavily favored to be wet after a wetter than normal Nov-Jan here. Other than March, which has now been drier than the 1981-2010 normal or the 1932-2016 normal for every year from 2008 to 2017 (a decade) in Albuquerque, June has the longest streak of below normal precipitation here, so it'd be nice to see that break, we did come very close to breaking it in 2015. My general idea for NM & AZ is Warm/Wet Winter (16-17) to Warm/Dry Spring to Mild/Moist Summer to Mild/Wet Fall to Cold/Wet Winter (17-18). Spring 2018 probably Cold/Moist if the El Nino develops and the sun behaves as it has been. BTW - I've had some success here predicting which month will be snowiest based on Summer temps / precip in my area. You guys may want to look into it up in your areas. Here a cool July favors Dec heavily, a cool June/Sept favors March, a wet monsoon favors Dec, and so on. When you aggregate the eight indicators together you get a pretty good guess at which month will be snowiest. It may not matter for Denver since March is head and shoulders above the other months, but it's useful in my area where the snow averages from Dec to Mar are all within 1.5 inches.
  7. I'm not a huge fan of the JAMSTEC for temperature outlooks (land) but in my observation of it, the SSTA forecasts are pretty good. It's trending toward another Super El Nino. It's been ages since we've had two super-El Ninos so close together, maybe late 1800s if you believe the reconstructions (i.e. trade winds fully reversing, weird weather, etc). It has the Super El Nino with a somewhat cooler Atlantic, and a neutral-ish PDO, which would be a great pattern for the SW...and sure enough it has almost the entire country frigid, which is somewhat consistent with the near-solar minimum El Ninos. Wildcard I think is the QBO or the AMO.
  8. AMO (North Atlantic) fell to 0.175 - big time drop from February, also a bit below last March. Way down from June-Sept when it was 0.40 to 0.50. The Nov-Apr AMO value looks like it is the highest of this AMO+ cycle, barring another huge drop in April. The Nov-Apr value in 1952-53 was the last time the six months were above the current value. 1943-44, and 1944-45 were even warmer. I'd like to think the AMO/Atlantic will cool some next year, as we approach the flip year, and see an El Nino, but we'll have to see. I designed this "auto" analoging thing, and it thinks Nov-Apr 2016-2017 was closest to 1931-32, if you use Nino 3.4 (ONI in DJF), PDO (Nov-Apr), AMO (Nov-Apr), Solar (sunspots July-June), Modoki status in DJF, and previous year ONI in DJF. Tentative years closest to 2016-17 shown below. Close match on 3+ variables of the 7 counts as analog. The weighting is 3 = 1, 4 = 2, 5 = 3, 6 = 4, 7 = 5, essentially close variables minus two points. I divided Modoki into five categories, 2, 1, 0, -1, -2. The two means "warm center, but greatest anomaly to East", one means "warm center, and greatest anomaly in center", 0 means roughly same anomaly in both during Neutral year, -1 means "cool center, greatest anomaly in center", and -2 means "cool center, greatest anomaly in east". It was interesting to see the years below select mostly -1 and 2, as both are warm in the east relative to the middle (Modoki La Nina and East based El Ninos). ONI DJF PDO N-A AMO N-A Sun Jul-Jun Prior ONI Modoki Mons (In) 1931 -0.3 0.38 0.186 25.1 1.3 -1 3.54 1931 -0.3 0.38 0.186 25.1 1.3 -1 3.54 1941 1.1 0.70 0.247 76.5 1.9 2 5.44 1976 0.6 1.04 -0.315 23.2 -1.5 1 3.10 1983 -0.5 1.45 -0.085 82.7 2.2 -1 2.94 1983 -0.5 1.45 -0.085 82.7 2.2 -1 2.94 1998 -1.5 -0.45 0.154 115.2 2.2 -1 3.40 Mean -0.2 0.71 0.041 61.5 1.4 -0.3 3.56 2016 -0.4 0.93 0.258 28 2.2 -1 3.09
  9. I like May wet for most of the West, but warmer than normal as you head east or south. Coolness centered on CA. Actually think it's a wet Summer too - which means it won't be super hot. Maybe just average?
  10. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml ONI Value updated for JFM: -0.2C Up from -0.4C in DJF. Still consider the event La Nina, given the strength / persistence of the anomalies from July - January.
  11. NOAA values for the PDO remained near 0 in March, so JISAO value likely won't change much. ONI for JFM isn't in yet - probably later this week. But the Nino 3.4 value for March remained positive, and February was positive too. So JFM ONI is likely near 0 already. Nino 1.2 is actually in something like a Super El Nino at the moment (+1.95C for March) by the reckoning of the second link https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/pdo/ https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/enso/indicators/sst.php
  12. April Fools mofos...had rain mixed with snow in the city today at 2 pm. Very impressive. It was 34F at 2 pm. Average high on Apr 1 is 65F. High today is 44F so far...colder than any day in March, and arguably since Feb 13. Already more precipitation this month than all of March...
  13. It's the Nino signal starting to show up honestly. Nino 1.2 has been warm all winter, but 3.4 has warmed up a lot since January 31. The JFM ONI value may be near 0.0C already. I think we're going to be at borderline El Nino conditions by ONI in AMJ, and maybe we end up at +0.3C for "now", i.e. MAM. January was the last negative ONI, March is likely the last neutral month if you use this: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/enso/indicators/sst.php
  14. Have you guys ever looked into March snowfall by solar activity in your areas? It really makes a huge difference here, at least in the valleys, and actually seems more important than ENSO in some ways. The quick test I did thinks (based on low solar years) that no more than 9% of high solar years should have >=3" snow in March. In truth, it's 28%, so you reject the hypothesis that solar makes no difference. The same test thinks (based on high solar years) that no less 8% of of low solar years should have >=3" snow in March. In truth, it's 3% (barring 3 inches of snow tomorrow). The massive discrepancy exists even within El Ninos, 0/9 low-solar El Ninos have big March snow in ABQ, but 8/18 high-solar El Ninos have big March snow in ABQ. You'd probably have to use a threshold higher than 3", but I tested in at 2", and 1.5", and at those levels the sun still works as a "significant" explainer for March snow variation ABQ. What is interesting is March temps are almost completely controlled by ENSO here, but the sun and ENSO both have a lot of say over precip.
  15. Albuquerque had it's greatest daily rainfall today in March since at least March 9th 2009, pending any more precip by midnight....a staggering 0.18"! Will be interesting seeing if the statewide snowpack numbers jump up a lot from 37% of normal today when the reading comes in 3.29. Historically, 3/29 is a good snowfall date for the state. Will be interesting to see if that verifies, a lot of the rain should go over to snow north and east of Albuquerque after midnight, even down to 5,000 or 6,000 feet.