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About raindancewx

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  1. raindancewx

    ENSO 2018

    This is kind of why I cringe a little when people say "the whole west will be warm". The rains in Arizona have really set the heat back quite a bit since September.
  2. This October cold spell here is already basically as cold as it got all of last winter for any sustained period. My analogs had an October high of 68F here. That may end up too warm....since through 10/17 we're already down to 68.4F for the October high. The high of 68.4F for 10/1-10/17 is actually the 4th coldest in Albuquerque since 1931.
  3. raindancewx

    ENSO 2018

    OSU: You can get the old ECMWF forecasts here https://weather.us/monthly-charts Go to Model Run on the left and select an older forecast Then the parameters you want. I am curious about what the Euro will say on 11/1 for November. The idea of a warm east / cold west from the 10/1 run for October looks right. By this time in 2002, most of the heat over the East was gone. 1986, like this year had a big jump in the SOI in October after pretty similar July-Sept readings. The 10/1-10/17 SOI is +3.1. Seems to be coinciding with slightly lower Nino 3.4 readings.
  4. raindancewx

    ENSO 2018

    Here is a look at how well the 10/1/2017 European Model runs did for actual temperature anomalies for Winter 2017-18. For December, the East was much colder v. what was shown in October. The SW was much hotter. The Northern Plains much warmer. For January, East was much colder than forecast, and the West was much warmer than forecast. The forecast for February was broadly speaking, useless. The Plains were 10F colder than shown in places, with the east over 5F warmer. I'd give December a C+ (not bad), January a C- and February an F. The forecast on 10/1 for October 2017 was of course quite good (B+), but I'd say even Nov 2017 from Oct 1 2017 was only in the C+ range.
  5. raindancewx

    Mountain West Discussion

    High in Albuquerque today was 42F, with a low of 33F here. Cloudy with Sprinkles and Flurries. For October, we had the 9th coldest high since 1931.
  6. raindancewx

    ENSO 2018

    The Ben Noll thing is actually the first depiction of European SSTs for the winter I've seen with the basin wide view. The weather.us site makes you zoom in to SST by continents if you use the free maps. Years with cold Octobers in the West in El Ninos and a warm East are fairly rare if the warmth in East manages to hold on. 1939 (sort of), 1941, 1951 (sort of), 1969, 1982, 1994. I'm assuming the +4F to +8F anomalies in the East gets mostly, but not completely wiped out, so you need hotter years in the east for October than 2002. Warm West, cold East years are interesting too in El Nino Octobers - 2015 (sort of), 2014 (sort of), 1987, 1979 (sort of), 1977, 1965, 1958 (sort of),
  7. Looks like the high here was 43F today. That is colder than...99.6% of all October highs since 1931 here. Record coldest high is 36F.
  8. raindancewx

    ENSO 2018

    I would call that our first month of El Nino conditions? Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 19SEP2018 20.3-0.1 25.0 0.2 27.0 0.3 29.1 0.4 26SEP2018 20.2-0.3 25.5 0.6 27.3 0.6 29.3 0.6 03OCT2018 21.3 0.7 25.6 0.7 27.4 0.7 29.5 0.8 10OCT2018 21.1 0.4 25.6 0.7 27.3 0.6 29.5 0.9 My high today was 42F or 43F, which is broadly speaking, historic cold here for October. For 1931-2017 Octobers (87 years * 31 days) we've had 12 days with a high of under 43F. Less than 0.5% of October highs were colder. Coldest October high since 1931 is 36F. Last year, we had only 18 highs that were 43F or colder for the entirety of the 10/1-05/31 cold season. Also -
  9. raindancewx

    ENSO 2018

    WT360 has a pretty good track record on seasonal stuff, and their outlook has similar snow anomalies to what I have. http://www.weathertrends360.com/Blog/Post/Star-Date-8-October-2018-Monday-5414 I think I saw someone say Accuweather is using 1986, 1994, 2006 as their analog blend. Also - here is what the Weather Channel has - https://weather.com/forecast/national/news/2018-10-13-november-december-january-2019-temperature-outlook I'd say by Wednesday, the mountains here will be running +20 to +30% above normal already. Some will have two feet of snow from the current set up. Weatherbell of course is using 2002, 2006, 2009, 2014, which is very cold in the SE, less so in the NE.
  10. raindancewx

    ENSO 2018

    One more new subsurface frame now - the heat looks like it is migrating east and up to me. 1957-58 is probably going to be the top SOI analog for July-Oct given the big SOI spike of recent days, which was present in 1957 too. Like I said before, the MEI is a useful indicator, it just lags a bit honestly. The SOI being an excellent match to 1957 sort of predicted the MEI trend I'd say. Year July Aug Sept Oct ABS 2018 1.8 -6.7 -8.5 1957 1.4 -8.2 -9.4 -0.3 4.3 1990 5.2 -4.4 -7.3 -1.2 7.5 1986 2.0 -7.0 -4.7 6.6 12.7 1948 0.8 -4.0 -7.1 6.6 13.5 2004 -6.4 -6.7 -3.2 -3.0 14.7 1932 1.1 4.9 -8.3 -4.1 14.8 2003 3.2 -1.2 -1.6 -2.9 14.9 1980 -1.6 1.5 -4.7 -0.9 16.3
  11. Increasingly looking like October 2018 will be the first cold month here since August 2017 on a mean high basis, relative to 1931-2017.
  12. raindancewx

    Winter 2018-19 Is Coming

    Some of our mountains will get two feet of snow the next five days. Where I am, against the 30-year means, we haven't had a cold month since August 2017 - so something has definitely snapped. This month should end up as very cold for Oct. My analogs had good snows for most of the state in Oct. So far so good.
  13. raindancewx

    ENSO 2018

    You're thinking of those years as +2 to +2.5 ONI monstrosities in DJF. By FMA, they were only +1.5C or so. I'm not saying this becomes a Super El Nino, but years with increasing El Nino magnitude in Spring are pretty unusual. We'll see. 1940, 1941, 1958, 1969, 1977, 1987, 2015 are the Springs between two El Nino winters. There really isn't any indication this event will collapse like 2015, 1997, or 1982 at this point. Even by this time in 2015 there was no real warmth below 150m. Looks a lot warmer than 2014 to me. Not nearly as warm as 2015
  14. raindancewx

    ENSO 2018

    It's kind of a special weak El Nino though. FMA might be +1.5C or more when all those +4 to +5C readings make it to the surface. I don't buy DJF getting that warm. But that's actually the aspect that makes me most nervous: I don't have a good mechanism for knowing when those waters surface. You start to get into 1958, 1983, 1992, 1998, 2016 type stuff. Those waters are going to surface somewhere.
  15. raindancewx

    ENSO 2018

    The Euro from what I've seen has a of skill at forecasting temperatures for the immediate month ahead, but not so much for the more distant months (understandable, more can go wrong), even though it is still probably better than the other models. The Canadian is sort of the same way. Look at the Euro October forecast from 9/1 v. 10/1 - the magnitudes and spatial patterns are much close to what has been observed to date.