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  1. Looks to me like the observations are broken or down now - https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 04MAR2020 27.5 1.1 27.0 0.1 27.5 0.5 29.3 1.1 11MAR2020 26.7 0.3 27.5 0.5 27.7 0.5 29.3 1.2 18MAR2020 26.9 0.5 27.6 0.4 28.1 0.8 29.4 1.2 25MAR2020 27.0 0.8 27.5 0.3 27.9 0.5 28.9 0.6 01APR2020 26.8 0.8 27.9 0.6 28.1 0.6 29.1 0.7 08APR2020 26.5 0.8 28.0 0.6 28.2 0.6 29.4 1.0 15APR2020 25.6 0.1 28.2 0.7 28.5 0.7 29.4 0.9 22APR2020 25.4 0.2 28.1 0.7 28.4 0.6 29.2 0.7 29APR2020 25.1 0.1 27.7 0.4 28.2 0.4 29.0 0.4 06MAY2020 24.8 0.2 27.4 0.2 28.0 0.2 29.0 0.3 13MAY2020 24.5 0.2 27.0-0.1 27.6-0.3 29.0 0.3 20MAY2020 ******** ******** ******** ******** Nevermind - they fixed it 04MAR2020 27.5 1.1 27.0 0.1 27.5 0.5 29.3 1.1 11MAR2020 26.7 0.3 27.5 0.5 27.7 0.5 29.3 1.2 18MAR2020 26.9 0.5 27.6 0.4 28.1 0.8 29.4 1.2 25MAR2020 27.0 0.8 27.5 0.3 27.9 0.5 28.9 0.6 01APR2020 26.8 0.8 27.9 0.6 28.1 0.6 29.1 0.7 08APR2020 26.5 0.8 28.0 0.6 28.2 0.6 29.4 1.0 15APR2020 25.6 0.1 28.2 0.7 28.5 0.7 29.4 0.9 22APR2020 25.4 0.2 28.1 0.7 28.4 0.6 29.2 0.7 29APR2020 25.1 0.1 27.7 0.4 28.2 0.4 29.0 0.4 06MAY2020 24.8 0.2 27.4 0.2 28.0 0.2 29.0 0.3 13MAY2020 24.5 0.2 27.0-0.1 27.6-0.3 29.0 0.3 20MAY2020 23.9-0.1 26.4-0.6 27.4-0.4 28.9 0.1
  2. We've really cooled off a lot here since the late April - early May heat wave. After lows near 60 and highs near 90 we've dropped back to highs near 80 and lows near 50 - which is actually a bit cool for late May. We dropped into the 40s the other day with dew points in the negative single digits. We had a lot of days in Summer 2016 with dew points around 10 and highs around 100 in late June and July. The dew point depressions were almost painful but you had populated areas dropping into the 40s from the mid-high 90s - very impressive. I think we had a day where we went from 100 to 58 in Albuquerque, when something like 100 to 69 would be more typical. There are some indications of a wetter monsoon than last year. It does seem to happen more frequently with lower snow pack totals heading into Spring. I use Taos Powderhorn as an approximation - still snow covered into late June last year. Not gonna happen this year. It seems like the monsoon really kicks off 2-3 weeks after the mountains above 10,000 feet can absorb the full heat of the sun without snow-pack interfering. Also hoping for a big August for rainfall, it has been ages since the city has had a real wet August.
  3. https://www.scribd.com/document/462193709/Summer-2020-Final-Outlook The analogs I used for Summer 2020 imply a 25.75C La Nina in winter as a composite - will be interesting how that changes from now through the Fall when I do my winter outlook. For whatever reason, 2005, 2010, 2016 have not been good matches to US weather yet despite similar SSTs, in low-solar, warm AMO, El Nino to La Nina transitions.
  4. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 01APR2020 26.8 0.8 27.9 0.6 28.1 0.6 29.1 0.7 08APR2020 26.5 0.8 28.0 0.6 28.2 0.6 29.4 1.0 15APR2020 25.6 0.1 28.2 0.7 28.5 0.7 29.4 0.9 22APR2020 25.4 0.2 28.1 0.7 28.4 0.6 29.2 0.7 29APR2020 25.1 0.1 27.7 0.4 28.2 0.4 29.0 0.4 06MAY2020 24.8 0.2 27.4 0.2 28.0 0.2 29.0 0.3 13MAY2020 24.5 0.2 27.0-0.1 27.6-0.3 29.0 0.3 Nino 4 remains the big hindrance to a La Nina - but the middle zones are probably going to be colder than average in June. Early May was still warm, so definitely no La Nina this month.
  5. I'm increasingly looking at the coming Summer/Fall/Winter behaving differently than a lot of the recent winters. If you look at the monthly NAO data, April 2020 was the first -NAO month since April 2010. The difference between May minus April and September minus March as a blend is pretty indicative for the upcoming NAO pattern - so a rise from April to May (even if May is only slightly negative) is pretty different from recent years. The coming winter should be easier to forecast than last winter - the final data for last winter included a very warm Nov-Apr AMO, a slightly negative Nov-Apr PDO, a high Dec-Feb Modoki value, low annualized solar, a weak El Nino following a weak El Nino, in a year after a weak Southwest Monsoon - all that stuff is in contradiction or unprecedented to some extent with the historical El Ninos in the past 100 years. A low solar La Nina after a weak El Nino, with a -PDO/+AMO, should it develop has plenty of precedent. Years would include 1942, 1954, 1964, 1973, 1983, 1995, 2007, 2010, 2016. The national pattern for Spring has a fairly strong resemblance to a blend of a couple of those years. I'll detail that when I do my Summer Outlook. Generally speaking, the -NAO in April is cold signal for the SW in June but warm for the NE/MW in June, cold for the SE in July, cold for the NW in September. The big +AO in March is a cold signal nationally for the US in August. Low solar warm for the NE/MW in June, cold for the north-central US in August. The AMO/warm Nino 3.4 Spring are favorable for warmth in the East July-Sept, and nationally in Aug-Sept. It looks like a hot Summer to me, outside maybe TX and the NW.
  6. I said I would do this at the end of the season - so here is my analog blend using sampled cities across the US. I was way too snowy in the NE. Otherwise, results weren't amazing, but I wouldn't call them awful either. Most sites had at least one analog that was pretty close to the final snow total, and the weighted analog blend got quite a few cities within six inches (marked in pink). Some are obviously in the South, but fair number in the West/Midwest too where they actually got substantial snow. The forecast and % averages were my forecast compared to 60-year snow averages. The 2019 in red is total snow July-mid-May. If you look at the light purple (either closest analog or within an inch of the total) you find that 2018-19 and 1953-54 were closest to 2019-20 most frequently. Locally, the blend had 9.0" for Albuquerque at the airport - they got 6.6". I had 10.5" at my place. The weighting below was 1953-54 (x2), 1983-84 (x2), 1992-93, 1995-96, 2009-10 (x3), 2018-19. I'm generally happy with 1953-54, 1992-93, 2018-19 as analogs for the winter, they more or less worked in Fall, Winter and Spring with the right weights - but the others screwed it all up.
  7. The PDO finished Nov-Apr at -0.2. Lowest in a long time on the JISAO method. Will be interesting to see how the winter plays out if that continues. Been a long while since we've had a La Nina with a -PDO for winter. Nino 4 is still very warm, surface, even subsurface in some ways - that is why I'm skeptical of a major La Nina. But I think a 25.5-26.5C DJF in Nino 3.4 is pretty likely.
  8. Cooling continues. Possible we flip some areas to below average at the surface over the next two-three weeks. Still need a lot of cooling after that to get to -0.5 at the surface. I think it's possible around July though. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 04MAR2020 27.5 1.1 27.0 0.1 27.5 0.5 29.3 1.1 11MAR2020 26.7 0.3 27.5 0.5 27.7 0.5 29.3 1.2 18MAR2020 26.9 0.5 27.6 0.4 28.1 0.8 29.4 1.2 25MAR2020 27.0 0.8 27.5 0.3 27.9 0.5 28.9 0.6 01APR2020 26.8 0.8 27.9 0.6 28.1 0.6 29.1 0.7 08APR2020 26.5 0.8 28.0 0.6 28.2 0.6 29.4 1.0 15APR2020 25.6 0.1 28.2 0.7 28.5 0.7 29.4 0.9 22APR2020 25.4 0.2 28.1 0.7 28.4 0.6 29.2 0.7 29APR2020 25.1 0.1 27.7 0.4 28.2 0.4 29.0 0.4 06MAY2020 24.8 0.2 27.4 0.2 28.0 0.2 29.0 0.3
  9. Fairly rapid cooling this week at the surface. Still a ways to go though. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 04MAR2020 27.5 1.1 27.0 0.1 27.5 0.5 29.3 1.1 11MAR2020 26.7 0.3 27.5 0.5 27.7 0.5 29.3 1.2 18MAR2020 26.9 0.5 27.6 0.4 28.1 0.8 29.4 1.2 25MAR2020 27.0 0.8 27.5 0.3 27.9 0.5 28.9 0.6 01APR2020 26.8 0.8 27.9 0.6 28.1 0.6 29.1 0.7 08APR2020 26.5 0.8 28.0 0.6 28.2 0.6 29.4 1.0 15APR2020 25.6 0.1 28.2 0.7 28.5 0.7 29.4 0.9 22APR2020 25.4 0.2 28.1 0.7 28.4 0.6 29.2 0.7 29APR2020 25.1 0.1 27.7 0.4 28.2 0.4 29.0 0.4 The Nino 4 cool down is encouraging for a La Nina. The European has been trying to get it negative sometime mid-summer and that's almost a precursor for a La Nina. Solar activity for the 12-months ending April 2020 was at about 2.5 sunspots/month - so we should be at or very near the absolute floor of this solar cycle too. If that's the case the NAO may behave pretty differently next winter. May v. Apr is one of the better indicators for it at a long-lead, along with Sept v Mar. Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ 2010 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.4 -0.1 -0.6 -1.0 -1.4 -1.6 -1.7 -1.7 -1.6 2011 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 -1.1 -1.1 -1.0 2012 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.2 2013 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 2014 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 2015 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.6 2016 2.5 2.2 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.3 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6 2017 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -0.9 -1.0 2018 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.8 2019 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ 2020 0.5 0.6 0.5
  10. Since 2000 we haven't really had a La Nina with a peak below 25.0C in Nino 3.4 in winter and Nino 4 remains very warm. That is my main skepticism for a big time, major La Nina. I was playing with it the other day - and I think something like this may end up happening given how warm Nino 4 is still. Peak cold around 120W, Nino 4 never completely cools off. PDO still negative though. Would "feel" like a La Nina, but we'll see. Obviously it is way early for this. Nino 4 over 29.0C makes it hard for Nino 3.4 to get below 26.0C though. I do think Nino 3 may be pretty cold - in the past winter, Nino 3 had a lot of trouble staying warm for whatever reason.
  11. YR MON 130E-80W 160E-80W 180W-100W 2019 10 0.38 0.49 0.70 2019 11 0.34 0.34 0.26 2019 12 0.37 0.45 0.35 2020 1 0.33 0.48 0.49 2020 2 0.32 0.51 0.53 2020 3 0.10 0.19 0.33 2020 4 -0.16 -0.19 -0.22 Subsurface heat for 100-180W is now negative at the equator down to 300m. Usually big drops month.month correspond to a warm month in the US - we'll see. El Nino is over - these measures were still positive last April. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt
  12. New Canadian has trended the Nino regions colder. I think it is a bad initialization though - it shows Nino 3.4 pretty cold already in May which doesn't look likely going by the weeklies since the surface is still warm. May is forecast to be quite warm though -
  13. There is a pretty strong cyclical nature to date of final measurable snowfall here. The repeatable part of the curve seems to be 60-years, so we're around 1960?
  14. Tentative idea from me is a cool-ish start to Summer, before the heat turns on later, relative to time of year. Not expecting a particularly robust Monsoon, but just starting to look at Summer now. If we go into a La Nina in winter, there is often a huge September for moisture if we are to have a hot/dry winter. Think 2005, 2008, 2013, 2017 which were all pretty dry and cold neutral to La Nina setups.
  15. It does look like we are trending toward a La Nina - but there is still a lot of warmth at the surface to be eroded. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 01APR2020 26.8 0.8 27.9 0.6 28.1 0.6 29.1 0.7 08APR2020 26.5 0.8 28.0 0.6 28.2 0.6 29.4 1.0 15APR2020 25.6 0.1 28.2 0.7 28.5 0.7 29.4 0.9 22APR2020 25.4 0.2 28.1 0.7 28.4 0.6 29.2 0.7 The data is 'centered'. So this is through April 25th. April will be the month to make this event 'official' as an El Nino. But of course the El Nino is dead now, and CPC's method of classifying is very laggy. Nino 4 does still look like it will be warm for a while.