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raindancewx

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    Albuquerque

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  1. raindancewx

    ENSO 2018

    Any of you see the proposed new NZ teleconnection index? https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-04722-7
  2. raindancewx

    ENSO 2018

    I'm on the Nate Mantua mailing list for the JISAO PDO (monthly) values. The PDO value for May was +0.11, same as April, up from -0.05 in March. Last May was +0.88
  3. raindancewx

    ENSO 2018

    Nino 3.4 went positive for the first time since last August. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 04APR2018 24.7-1.1 27.1-0.3 27.1-0.5 28.3-0.1 11APR2018 24.3-1.3 27.2-0.3 27.3-0.4 28.5 0.0 18APR2018 24.1-1.2 27.2-0.3 27.6-0.2 28.6 0.1 25APR2018 24.3-0.7 27.1-0.2 27.8 0.0 29.0 0.4 02MAY2018 24.2-0.6 26.9-0.3 27.6-0.2 28.9 0.2 09MAY2018 23.9-0.6 27.0-0.2 27.7-0.1 29.0 0.3 16MAY2018 23.8-0.4 26.9-0.2 27.8-0.1 29.0 0.2 23MAY2018 23.0-0.8 26.9-0.1 27.7-0.1 29.0 0.2 30MAY2018 23.5-0.1 27.0 0.2 27.8 0.0 29.0 0.2 06JUN2018 22.8-0.5 26.8 0.2 27.7 0.0 29.0 0.2 13JUN2018 22.0-1.0 26.7 0.2 27.9 0.2 29.1 0.3 The European has had an El Nino for two runs in a row now, arguably a bit stronger this run. I added the yellow line as an approximate middle ensemble.
  4. raindancewx

    ENSO 2018

    If you look at the first post in this discussion, it has the mid-June maps for 2017 & 2018. There is far more warm water at the subsurface, and far less cold water now. In 2012, ONI did reach near El Nino conditions in Fall, JAS to SON, before falling off to near La Nina conditions in winter (-0.4 in DJF). ONI values in MAM (-0.4 +/-0.2) were similar to the following years: If ONI is -0.1 or -0.2 in AMJ, after being -0.4 in MAM, years within 0.2 for both periods include: 1962, 1967, 1968, 1976, 1978, 1981, 1986, 1996, 2001, 2006, 2012 June 2018 is pretty hot in the middle of the US (cooling off quickly here after the big rains yesterday), cool FL, NE, NW. That looks like the opposite of 1967, and similar to 2001 and 2012. Going forward, the colder Atlantic in June (y/y) favors a colder July v. last year in the East and SW, with the warmer Nino 3.4 favoring enhanced moisture in the SW (AZ especially). The SOI was -9.5 last June, so that won't be too different from this year. My hunch is we get an El Nino, but it starts in July or August, and then it ends fairly early, say January/February, it will be the flip of 2016-17 (Modoki El Nino, not Modoki La Nina, colder Atlantic ring by Africa, not warm, near neutral PDO, lower solar) with maybe near exact opposite behavior. The La Nina that ended in March started in September. Something like a blend of 1963, 1996, 2009 is my idea for later Summer and Fall, maybe Winter too.
  5. raindancewx

    ENSO 2018

    I live in the SW, so we had a record cold high today (74F) locally. Record rain too for the date (0.83") - wettest day here in three years (9/22/2015). The data goes back to 1892. June 2018 is already the wettest June since 1996 here, and it is only 6/16. Wet Junes here are much more common here when the AMO is colder, the sun is very weak, and after a dry Nov-Jan period, so check, check, and check. My replication analogs from Feb 10 in my Spring Outlook had 1.88" for June here, we're currently at 1.40". Just about all the cold is gone in the Nino region subsurface now. If we go to an El Nino after a La Nina with low solar, I'd bet on a pretty cold winter out here. Maybe not super wet though.
  6. raindancewx

    Mountain West Discussion

    Today has seen 0.83" in Albuquerque. Back to 1892, the record was 0.06" for the date. June is now the wettest here since 1996, with 1.40", and the month only half over. I've been talking about a wet June since January, so pleased to see it. My replication method (mimicking Jul-Dec observations by blending historical years in my Feb 10 forecast for Spring) implied 1.88 inches for June. That no longer looks crazy! https://t.co/85VPbQq1bD Also noted that extremely heavy rain in June is more likely in the SW after a very dry NDJ period.
  7. raindancewx

    yeah, everything about the weather is normal these days.

    I've been saying for close to two years now, if you look at the AMO, PDO, ENSO, Solar, Modoki structure, active volcanoes, and unusual placement of weather...it looks like the early Dustbowl years. The warm Nino 1.2 cold Nino 3.4 in 2016-17 happened in 1931-32, with similar background conditions, after a big El Nino in 1930-31 with similar weather to 2015-16, both of which were after weak El Nino / warm Neutrals with similar solar activity and so on. Conceptually the background oceanic signals repeat in 30/60/120 year intervals, with a strong signal at 60 years in particular, but solar activity was higher in the 1950s, but very low in the early 1930s, 90 years ago. The one aspect of the Dustbowl that I hope we avoid would be the complete lack of El Ninos between 1930-31 and 1939-40.
  8. raindancewx

    ENSO 2018

    The SOI has crashed into El Nino territory for June so far, below -8 once again. I'm not sure that the strength of ENSO events will really matters that much outside of the El/N/La categorization, so much as the orientation. 2015-16 & 1997-98 had similar ONI values, but one was heavily east based. Results were very different. My pet theory is the most extreme winters in a region where ENSO is a driving factor occur as a result of ENSO order - El Ninos after ~La Ninas are usually pretty interesting in the SW (2014, 2009, 2006, 1997, 1986, 1976, 1972, 1968, 1965, 1963, 1957, 1945, 1939, 1929, etc) for cold/high precipitation, the same is true in the NW in La Ninas after El Ninos (2016 was an extremely severe winter in places like Montana, as was 1983, and so on). For the East, the Modoki structure matters most, since those areas are "downwind" of the areas where ENSO is more of a direct driver.
  9. Saturday looks like a pretty good day for precipitation in the SW. Fingers crossed.
  10. raindancewx

    2018 E. Pacific Hurricane Season

    Bud + the monsoon setup coming a bit early (Sat?) should be a pretty widespread rain event for much of the SW US.
  11. raindancewx

    AMO is record highest

    AMO came in at... -0.000 for May. Similar to 2009 & 2014. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/amon.us.long.data
  12. raindancewx

    ENSO 2018

    I had a wet June in the SW this year, which is a nice break from our usual unbelievable heat, looks like that will verify with the dying East Pacific hurricanes juicing the early-to establish monsoon flow. Been seeing reports of thunderstorms firing off further north in Mexico than usual, daily, for the time of year for weeks now.
  13. raindancewx

    ENSO 2018

    Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 16MAY2018 23.8-0.4 26.9-0.2 27.8-0.1 29.0 0.2 23MAY2018 23.0-0.8 26.9-0.1 27.7-0.1 29.0 0.2 30MAY2018 23.5-0.1 27.0 0.2 27.8 0.0 29.0 0.2 06JUN2018 22.8-0.5 26.8 0.2 27.7 0.0 29.0 0.2 Nino 3 and Nino 4 are both getting there, but Nino 3.4 remains somewhat colder.
  14. raindancewx

    Mountain West Discussion

    The drought in the Dakota and TX Panhandle from last Fall implied a pretty hot start to Summer in the Plains to me, the high that prevented precipitation for five months in Amarillo wasn't just going to pack up its bags and leave. I will say, once AZ & NM start getting wet consistently, which should happen over the next ten days, the real core of the heat will get crippled to some extent. The remnant moisture from the storms in the E. Pac should help with everything.
  15. raindancewx

    Mountain West Discussion

    ^^ Looks pretty bright. Expecting a pretty active monsoon for much of the region. Already some extensive heavy rain earlier in the month.
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