raindancewx

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  1. In an SOI sense, a big -SOI in Dec, near 0 SOI in Jan, and then a big -SOI in Feb is fairly unusual. This blend is broadly consistent with my analogs - with a warm West for March. 2012-13 is objectively the closest match in the past 100 years, but I prefer this blend. Year Dec Jan Feb 2019 -6.7 0.7 -7.3 1953 -5.8 5.0 -5.2 1980 -2.2 2.1 -4.2 1980 -2.2 2.1 -4.2 1987 -5.8 -1.5 -6.2 2002 -13.4 -2.0 -9.3 2002 -13.4 -2.0 -9.3 Blend -7.1 0.6 -6.4 For the subsurface, 100-180W, 0-300m down, these are likely top matches for Dec-Feb: 100-180W Dec Jan Feb 2004 0.79 0.52 0.59 1992 0.19 0.27 0.28 2001 0.17 0.95 0.78 1992 0.19 0.27 0.28 Mean 0.34 0.50 0.48 2019 0.34 0.51 0.50 Take your pick for March - the second blend is much closer to the analogs I used for Spring (1954, 1993, 2005, 2019 for MAM), and March 2020 (1954, 2004, 2005). 1981 is actually a decent match for the subsurface too. March 2013 also looks fairly close to the left map, and it is the top SOI blend.
  2. The CFS has a huge wet signal for 3/4 to 3/11 on its weekly run for New Mexico & Southern Colorado. That's roughly the time-frame I've been expecting the Nov 20-29 part of the pattern to repeat. We'll see.
  3. Don't forget...the low solar + El Nino thing held last year too. El Nino Sun Jul-J Bos Snow 1899 18.2 25.0 1900 8.6 17.5 1902 18.7 42.0 1911 5.4 31.6 1913 7.4 39.0 1914 44.5 22.3 1923 14.6 29.8 1930 46.3 40.8 1953 9.5 23.6 1963 29.1 63.0 1965 37.1 44.1 1976 23.2 58.5 1986 19.1 42.5 1994 36.9 14.9 2006 20.1 17.1 2009 13.2 35.7 2018 5.5 27.4 Mean 21.0 33.8 2019 3 Roughly a 90% chance of 16-48" for the season going by 2/19-5/31 records since the 1890s for Boston. So...33.8 is probably as decent a guess as any?
  4. Hooray for math. As I've said...blending years with similar conditions for Sep minus Mar and May minus Apr produces good NAO predictions for winter.
  5. GFS/Euro are showing a warm/wet storm around Friday/Saturday - this would be the early November (11/6) storm using the 3.5 month lag if it verifies. Would verify the precipitation portion of my winter forecast for Albuquerque if it happens as shown.
  6. Weeklies continue to show decay in Nino 3.4. It's hard to say if it will last - the subsurface animation is down. My suspicion is it won't. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 15JAN2020 24.2-0.2 25.6-0.1 27.0 0.4 29.2 0.9 22JAN2020 24.6-0.2 25.8 0.0 26.9 0.3 29.1 0.9 29JAN2020 25.3 0.2 26.1 0.2 27.4 0.8 29.3 1.1 05FEB2020 26.4 0.8 26.1 0.0 26.9 0.2 29.3 1.2 12FEB2020 26.1 0.1 26.6 0.3 26.8 0.1 28.9 0.9 ~Record positive Arctic Oscillation in February with near record warmth in Nino 4 is an interesting/unusual combination for February. The two are opposite temperature signals for the US in March in large areas of the US. On the monthly data sets, February 1990, 1992, 1995, 2015, 2019 are similar, but the AO wasn't super positive in January in these years generally. The Oct 16-Nov 15 pattern has shown up, shifted West for February, so I'd expect Nov 16-Dec 15 to show up for March, shifted in some way. The warm storm forecast for me late this week is on track with the warm/wet storm on November 6th, roughly a 3.5 month lag still, generally +104 days, +/-3 is verifying pretty well.
  7. If the low solar cycles are to continue for a while, and the PDO is to slowly trend negative, I think there are a lot of El Ninos like this one and the last one to come over the next 10-20 years fo the Northeast. The high solar/high PDO El Ninos will be different, but I don't know that there are that many of them near term.
  8. The SOI crashes of late imply a very active late February period. We'll see how that goes. My 3.5 month repeat idea means that there should be some kind of big, wet/warm storm around February 23, given the big/wet/warm storm in early November. The late November pattern is early March on that time scale. If it verifies anything close to Nov 16-Nov 30 for moisture, it has the potential to be an all time wet March for the Southwest. I'm fairly optimistic for March. Almost every day has been below freezing in Albuquerque for at least a little while, for three months now. That's not going to immediately shut off, so we've got a real shot at March snow. The data supports it - if you sort Oct 1 - Feb 15 lows <=32F by year into the cold half, and the warm half, 83 and less is warm, and 84 and more is cold for the last 88 years. So the odds are far more favorable for (light) snow in March in years with more frequent lows <=32F. We're at 86 for 10/1-2/15, one of the highest figures in the last 25 years, behind only 2009-10, and tied with 2000-01 and 1997-98. I don't buy a very snowy March though, we've only topped three inches one time in a low solar year, in over 30 low solar years. # <=32F >0" >=1" >=2" >=3" >=4" >=5" >=6" >83 Oct-2/15 84.09% 52.27% 34.09% 27.27% 13.64% 11.36% 9.09% <84 Oct-2/15 47.73% 27.27% 22.73% 9.09% 6.82% 2.27% 2.27% P-value 0.0002 0.0083 0.1186 0.0135 0.1456 0.0454 0.0836 Years with snow each month from Nov-Feb, like 2019-20, also heavily favor snow in March, compared to all other years. Almost 90% of years with snow each month Nov-Feb see snow in March, compared to only 60% in all other years.
  9. Here is the JISAO/Nate Mantua PDO update for January 2020 - negative. 2019-10-01T00:00:00Z -0.45 2019-11-01T00:00:00Z 0.15 2019-12-01T00:00:00Z 0.97 2020-01-01T00:00:00Z -0.23 https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/tabledap/cciea_OC_PDO.htmlTable?time,PDO My PDO indicator said ~ +0.5 for Nov-Apr. That looks fine.
  10. The key period for New England is March 14-20. If you're going to get a big snow storm, I think it should be when the pattern that repeats the early December Boston snow repeats. Prior to that, there should be big rains/snows in the Southwest from a huge burst of subtropical moisture if the pattern continues to repeat. Might be too warm for a big snow event in New England given the warmth in the pattern without help from the -NAO though. My storm today/yesterday ties in exactly 104 days after a storm we had in late October, when a cold front came through at Midnight from the East, ended a slightly warm pattern for a very cold day without much moisture. Same exact thing today/yesterday. Prior storms since December have tied in with the lag at that exact distance, and god knows we don't have many storms here. If you use Boston, it should be December 3, 2019 +104 days. So, 28 for Dec, 31 for Jan, 29 for Feb, and then 16. So March 16th is the day to watch. We had near record rains/snows throughout the Southwest November 20-29, so that should happen about March 4-13 if the cycle repeats. March 4th is actually, over the past century, the second snowiest day of the year (by frequency) for large areas of New Mexico and the Southwest. We'll see.
  11. Here is the European update for ENSO - looks to me like no real change in Nino 3.4. The predicted decline in Nino 4 has been shown for several months now and is much more interesting. The Jamstec site is changing looks like, so might be a little late to update this month. Long term, the pattern still appears to be cycling through at about a 104 day lag. I had a storm exactly 104 days ago yesterday in October.
  12. Most of New Mexico got snow - Albuquerque did get a bit, but not much. This is the first time in several years the airport got accumulating snow with an east wind and I didn't. Still, the storm brought 0.35" to Albuquerque, biggest storm since November. The precipitation portion of my winter forecast is pretty close - we're at 1.00" for Dec-Feb, and I forecast 1.25" for Albuquerque. We'll see how close I get by the end of the month. Biggest lake in the state is set to be the most full it has been since 2009 after we pass the 2010 peak in a few days.
  13. We'll see how it goes. I didn't really do a snow forecast for Spring. Been fairly happy with the snow forecast I had nationally for October.
  14. https://www.scribd.com/document/446483878/Spring-2020-Outlook My Spring Forecast (Mar-May) for anyone curious. General idea is warmed 1954, 1993, 2005, 2019
  15. Chinook, my sense is since rain will arrive first, the East wind won't be able to immediately destroy the precipitation. As it dries out the column of air, it cools, so it snows for a while. Once it is colder, it will stop, but it will still take a while. I do think the snow will stop for the whole city by 5 am or so. But I think there is a good window from 11 pm to 3-6 am where it is rain to snow. We were supposed to hit 53 today, and it only got to 49, so the transition may happen a bit faster than expected. I think 1-5", locally less for SE ABQ, locally more for the NW areas and highest elevations of the city (5,600-6,300 feet) is probably right, especially if the Euro is right with the snow it shows after the East wind dies off around 10 am tomorrow. At this point, I'd consider two inches of snow, with 0.5" of total liquid a big win, it would nearly verify my snow (8.8") and precipitation forecasts (1.25") for the winter from October for the city.