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snowfan789

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About snowfan789

  1. snowfan789

    Mountain West Discussion

    Left my house in western Lakewood near Green Mountain at about 3:00 for the mountains. There was about 5” of snow then. Surely there’s more now. Elevation made a huge difference for this system. The cutoff between meh and decent snow seemed to be about 5500’. Things seem to have turned out well above 6000’. My backyard = about 5900’. The snow depth was pretty impressive just a few hundred feet up the hill from me (at the highest point of the Green Mtn neighborhood). This was a lot like the April storms I’ve seen.
  2. snowfan789

    Mountain West Discussion

    The 12z gfs looked ok and apparently the Euro looks decent as well. For now. This could easily change. But for now I think this is looking like a heavier snow event than 1-3”, though relatively warm temps paired with daytime snowfall may limit accumulation, especially below about 5500’.
  3. snowfan789

    Mountain West Discussion

    There’s a *chance* of an ok snow event around Denver this Friday according to some models like the NAM. Probably won’t pan out for various reasons such as the likely lack of sustained moderate or better upslope (big surprise) but at least it’s something interesting to watch for a little while.
  4. snowfan789

    Mountain West Discussion

    The ridiculously persistently positive PNA has surely been part of our problem in the CO Front Range lately. But why has it been so persistent? I ask in part to try to figure out what to root for in the coming months (like perhaps the erosion of the North Pacific warm blob?).
  5. snowfan789

    Mountain West Discussion

    Things just have to change for the better eventually. I think. But, as previously discussed, and as illustrated recently by the NYE “event”, the lack of upslope here is so darn persistent.
  6. snowfan789

    Mountain West Discussion

    Appear to have closer to 3” at about 5900’ in western Lakewood but, yeah, underwhelming for sure. Everywhere. Ugh. If I wanted to live in an arid climate, I would’ve settled elsewhere. The persistent dryness here is exasperating.
  7. snowfan789

    Mountain West Discussion

    Part of the problem has been a persistent warm blob in the North Pacific south of Alaska that has been blamed for the so-called ridiculously resilient ridge in the West. We have had a positive PNA pattern for much of the past few years, which is generally bad for snow in the Front Range, as it tends to prevent storms from taking a track and traveling at a (slow) speed that is favorable for upslope snowfall. The La Niña last year and the year before that was not favorable for snow in the Front Range either because storms tended not to track far enough south to generate upslope snowfall. Raindance and other regular posters here can probably say much more about this than I am capable of saying about this sea surface temp topic. The Atlantic (and NAO) can affect our weather too, as can other Pacific-related factors like the MJO and EPO. I am NOT convinced that climate change neccesarily will be terrible for snowfall in Colorado (the mountain snowpack is a different story, in my view, and the outlook is bleaker for points further south and southwest of here too). I don’t mean to minimize the very serious impacts of climate change but its future effect on the Front Range precip and snowfall specifically is just not yet clear, as far as I understand it. I would not be surprised to see more drought and bigger storms at times (more extremes).
  8. snowfan789

    Mountain West Discussion

    I am reluctant to blame climate change on the lack of big storms just yet. We have had some notably big storms since 2000, and a fair amount of above average snowfall seasons since then too though, as we all know, the past 2.5 years have been truly terrible. I think we can safely say that marginally cold storms are more likely to elicit rain than snow than they once were. That happened most recently in Denver in early November 2018 as I recall. What would’ve been about a 3-6” snowfall in temps a few degrees colder ended up being rain for almost all of the metro area. I suspect the horrific past few years have been largely attributable to sea surface temperature distributions that may or may not have much relationship with climate change. I am not a meteorologist but have followed weather and climate for years. I am cautiously optimistic that things will eventually turn around for the Front Range when it comes to snow, aside from those marginally cold storms that typically occur in the fall and spring. With that said, unless our winter precip goes up as the climate continues to warm (which some models have predicted), I do think our average annual snowfall will go down because of rain replacing what would’ve been snow. How the current Southwest mega-drought plays into all of this I don’t know but that may be another important factor to consider.
  9. snowfan789

    Mountain West Discussion

    Disappointing for sure and, so, our remarkable lack of snow persists. We just can’t seem to catch a break.
  10. snowfan789

    Weak-Moderate El Nino 2018-2019

    Raindance - You seem to forecast and quasi-forecast a lot but don’t seem to hold yourself accountable very often. I don’t have a strong personal investment in your recent skirmishes here with northeasterners as I live in Colorado and don’t claim to have the expertise to make seasonal forecasts myself. Still, I’ve lurked in this forum and closely followed the weather long enough to say that you really ought to critique yourself if you insist on prognosticating. For starters, he’s your temp forecast from last winter vs actual temps.
  11. snowfan789

    Mountain West Discussion

    Basically hasn’t snowed in Denver in a month. Our multi-year, now nearly unprecedented snow drought continues. Any reason for hope would be appreciated. I have tried but can’t find any straws to grasp until February at the earliest.
  12. snowfan789

    Mountain West Discussion

    I don’t mean to be a troll but feel that I must ask, how’d your November 2018 forecast turn out? I remember you calling for a relatively good stretch of winter-like weather in the CO Front Range. How’d your winter forecast last year turn out? I recall you calling for a mostly cold winter in the Great Basin region. Your contributions are appreciated but if you’re going to make forecasts then it only seems fair to report back on their accuracy so that readers can evaluate the credibility of later forecasts. Yes I am not happy to read a discouraging outlook from you for at least some of CO for December but the point and questions stand.
  13. snowfan789

    Mountain West Discussion

    Thanks, Finnster. Your contributions here and elsewhere are appreciated. I do think the above average snowpack in the mountains so far is worth stressing — and being thankful for. That’s hugely important and we’ve got that — so far. Snow lower down would be nice too, though. I am selfishly- speaking sick of these east coast storms again and again, year after year, while we remain dry dry dry.
  14. snowfan789

    Mountain West Discussion

    Very frustrating how Denver and most spots nearby outside the high mountains keep not getting snow. All hope for at least next few weeks seems to have been lost. Meanwhile the mountains are doing well (thankfully), Cheyenne has had near normal snowfall https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=CLI&issuedby=CYS; Pueblo has had near normal snowfall https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=CLI&issuedby=PUBl; and Wichita is above normal. There must be a snow force field over us even though we are “due” statistically for an ok winter if not better, given the terrible preceding two years.
  15. snowfan789

    Mountain West Discussion

    Not encouraging. I wonder if the Southwest dryness is attributable in part to the northward shift of the jet (stemming at least in part from climate change) and in part a weaker summer monsoon overall (also climate change-related?)? On the other hand, Denver seems to have historically experienced fairly prolonged stretches of bad winters, then good winters, then back again, and so on. Not sure the past few bad years are necessarily indicative of a new trend.
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