snowfan789

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  1. Almost 100% snow since early September, though that sounds more impressive than it is, in a sense, as it has been abnormally dry and not particularly cold either, with a very few exceptions. We’re generally well below average at this point in the Front Range for seasonal snowfall.
  2. Well, some models at some times recently have shown a bit more promise in the Front Range for the next system. Others -- like the GFS -- not so much, generally. Seems like a lot of possibilities remain on the table currently. On a different note, where in AZ and NM may finish December with above average precip? The state of the snowpack is pretty bad throughout most of the West, and downright terrible in much of AZ and NM. https://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/data/water/wcs/gis/maps/west_swepctnormal_update.pdf
  3. Actually, I think based on what I’ve seen that Utah may be in for a snowy stretch starting soon. But it has been very dry in the West lately, so there’s a lot of making up to do re: snowpack. I think pretty much everywhere is requiring reservations to ski, so I definitely recommend checking on that before traveling anywhere.
  4. Finnster, here’s a pretty detailed article on the so-called Ridiculously Resilient Ridge (RRR) https://weatherwest.com/archives/5982. While the RRR is generally very bad for places like California, a western trough that’s too deep and too far west can be less than ideal for us here in CO, especially on the east side of the Rockies. Along the Front Range, we often seem to do best with a trough that’s centered east of CA, along with some blocking in the Atlantic (negative NAO).
  5. Billings has had a lot of snowy years lately. Seems like the storm track is often further north than it used to be.
  6. Yeah, we are in a very dry spell through much of CO, at a typically relatively wet and in some cases white time, no less. If this lasts, that will become an increasingly major problem. Parts of the State have had good to great snow years but a lot of the State is already in varying degrees of drought. We need moisture to return soon.
  7. It take guts to put out a winter forecast and I salute you for that and the related detailed analysis. But I think it’s important to honestly grade oneself at the end too. The reality is that the mountains throughout the West have generally had an ok but not great snow year, the Front Range of CO had a good to phenomenal snow year, and most points east of there had a mediocre to historically bad snow year. Meanwhile, here’s your forecast: I don’t mean to be a troll but think accountability is important for everyone who,, to your credit, tries to predict the weather. Anyway, hope you’re right about the action to come.
  8. Got about 3.5” a bit south of Golden (and a little higher elevation than Golden).
  9. Thanks for sharing. Appreciate the detailed analysis, as usual. Selfishly, I hope you’re wrong for the CO Front Range. I think our chances of an at least decently snowy spring are higher than your outlook indicates. Generally, snowy falls here are followed by roughly average to well above average snowfall in March and April (May is a crapshoot). Various long range models, for whatever they’re worth, point to an at least somewhat wet March here too (don’t put much stock in long range model forecasts for April and beyond).
  10. About 2.5” in western Lakewood today. That brings our February total up to about 21.5”.
  11. Probably best to just joke about the lack of snow in the CO Front Range during winter, so far, when (I think) it is most fun to have snow because of what just “feels” normal, and because of the low sun angle causing snow to actually stick around. But, seriously, what a historically awful stretch of boring dry weather since late November. The Fall was mostly great; however, this is so far without question the worst winter I’ve experienced since moving to near Denver in 2013. No real cold & incredibly dry. Ugh. Hopefully this is not the new normal.
  12. Nothing particularly substantive to add. But, to state the obvious, what a quite horrible pattern for the CO Front Range since early December. No clear end in sight. No significant precip. No real cold. Just downright oppressively sunny and boring. Ugh. That is all.
  13. I have since 2017 kept snowfall records for my backyard, and we received about 115” in relatively elevated western Lakewood in calendar year 2019. Don’t and can’t know how that ranks historically. But it’s probably roughly top 10 since 1900ish based on Boulder’s records (the most relevant reference point I’m aware of). I was surprised by what the math showed — this has been a snowier calendar year than I realized. Still can’t help but be irked by December’s pattern and the very dry signals I have so far seen for early January east of the mountains. Still can’t really figure out what to root for pattern-wise east of the mountains. The projected negative pna seems like it should be at least ok in theory but, still, models indicate dry dry dry for at least the next 10 days, on the heels of a quite dry December.
  14. Some of those analog years were great in the Colorado Front Range. Some were not. The average is a bit misleading because of the huge spread.
  15. December has so far been terrible east of the Rockies. I have seen 2018-19 thrown around as an analog for this winter season, with persuasive reasoning to support it. If that holds true, then January should be better. December 2018 was also basically snowless in the Front Range. Then things turned around rather nicely during the second roughly 2/3 of January. Of course, the mountains have done well with snow recently, which is good and important.