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Everything posted by snowfan789

  1. Yeah, we are in a very dry spell through much of CO, at a typically relatively wet and in some cases white time, no less. If this lasts, that will become an increasingly major problem. Parts of the State have had good to great snow years but a lot of the State is already in varying degrees of drought. We need moisture to return soon.
  2. It take guts to put out a winter forecast and I salute you for that and the related detailed analysis. But I think it’s important to honestly grade oneself at the end too. The reality is that the mountains throughout the West have generally had an ok but not great snow year, the Front Range of CO had a good to phenomenal snow year, and most points east of there had a mediocre to historically bad snow year. Meanwhile, here’s your forecast: I don’t mean to be a troll but think accountability is important for everyone who,, to your credit, tries to predict the weather. Anyway, hope you’re right about the action to come.
  3. Got about 3.5” a bit south of Golden (and a little higher elevation than Golden).
  4. Thanks for sharing. Appreciate the detailed analysis, as usual. Selfishly, I hope you’re wrong for the CO Front Range. I think our chances of an at least decently snowy spring are higher than your outlook indicates. Generally, snowy falls here are followed by roughly average to well above average snowfall in March and April (May is a crapshoot). Various long range models, for whatever they’re worth, point to an at least somewhat wet March here too (don’t put much stock in long range model forecasts for April and beyond).
  5. About 2.5” in western Lakewood today. That brings our February total up to about 21.5”.
  6. Probably best to just joke about the lack of snow in the CO Front Range during winter, so far, when (I think) it is most fun to have snow because of what just “feels” normal, and because of the low sun angle causing snow to actually stick around. But, seriously, what a historically awful stretch of boring dry weather since late November. The Fall was mostly great; however, this is so far without question the worst winter I’ve experienced since moving to near Denver in 2013. No real cold & incredibly dry. Ugh. Hopefully this is not the new normal.
  7. Nothing particularly substantive to add. But, to state the obvious, what a quite horrible pattern for the CO Front Range since early December. No clear end in sight. No significant precip. No real cold. Just downright oppressively sunny and boring. Ugh. That is all.
  8. I have since 2017 kept snowfall records for my backyard, and we received about 115” in relatively elevated western Lakewood in calendar year 2019. Don’t and can’t know how that ranks historically. But it’s probably roughly top 10 since 1900ish based on Boulder’s records (the most relevant reference point I’m aware of). I was surprised by what the math showed — this has been a snowier calendar year than I realized. Still can’t help but be irked by December’s pattern and the very dry signals I have so far seen for early January east of the mountains. Still can’t really figure out what to root for pattern-wise east of the mountains. The projected negative pna seems like it should be at least ok in theory but, still, models indicate dry dry dry for at least the next 10 days, on the heels of a quite dry December.
  9. Some of those analog years were great in the Colorado Front Range. Some were not. The average is a bit misleading because of the huge spread.
  10. December has so far been terrible east of the Rockies. I have seen 2018-19 thrown around as an analog for this winter season, with persuasive reasoning to support it. If that holds true, then January should be better. December 2018 was also basically snowless in the Front Range. Then things turned around rather nicely during the second roughly 2/3 of January. Of course, the mountains have done well with snow recently, which is good and important.
  11. Ended up with about 20” in western Lakewood, most of which fell over about 12 hours. Expectations exceeded.
  12. December 1992 wasn’t bad in the Front Range and October 1992 was much less snowy than October 2019. We are statistically way overdue for an 80”+ year in Denver. Who knows if it’ll finally happen this year. But so far, so good....
  13. In my anecdotal experience, the NAM tends not to significantly over predict in Colorado. That is in contrast to the Nor’easters I used to experience when living in New England.
  14. That’s also a little better than the last run for Denver, but not as dramatically so as the NAM. Still, latest trends = encouraging. Things could still change in the other direction but I think it’s reasonable to be cautiously optimistic at this point.
  15. That’s a huge increase from the last run. Not sure if that’s indicative of a legitimately higher impact than anticipated but it’s sure fun to look at, and last-minute trends can be meaningful. I imagine that’d be a top-five storm for at least Boulder and Fort Collins if it verified.
  16. The ratios for the two recent snowfalls in Denver were 15-20:1(ish), which is very dry for October.
  17. There are a lot of years that fell more than 10” short of average. So, the data indicates a heightened potential for more snow relative to normal after October.
  18. Do you mean snow that’s relatively low in water content when you say drier than normal? Odds of an above average snowfall season are almost 75% based on historical data and Denver receiving over 10” in October. There are no guarantees, of course.
  19. Well for October:
  20. Forecasting seasonal snowfall in the CO Front Range other than during strong El Niño and La Niña winters (generally snowy and not snowy respectively) seems to be unusually difficult. What I understand to be your top analog years, Raindance, average out to slightly below average snowfall in Denver but those seasons individually ranged from quite bad to very good.
  21. Thanks for explaining. Look forward to seeing your forecast. FWIW, some of those analog years you mentioned featured above average snowfall for Denver — 83-84 in particular. So one can still reasonably hope, for now...
  22. What are the implications for the mountain west?
  23. Happy for you. Seriously. We didn’t get nearly that much due west of Denver near Golden. More generally, what a horrible pattern since roughly early July onwards with a few exceptions. So hot and dry. Glad this isn’t winter as I’d take hot and dry now over any other time of the year. Still, not good for the flora (naturally occurring, don’t care about green lawns in this semi-arid climate) and hope this doesn’t persist.
  24. It is snowing heavily through much of the Denver metro area. I’m starting to wonder if there will be power outages.
  25. It was a good winter. The spring has been quite underwhelming for most of the CO mountains.